Chapter - 1
Chapter - 1
Chapter - 1
INTRODUCTION
Chapter – 1
Introduction
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1.1 Problem Definition
Bank Marketing has become a necessary survival weapon and is fundamentally
dynamical in the banking system worldwide. The increase of Bank Marketing is
redefining business relationships and therefore the most made banks are those who will
really strengthen their relationship with their customers. Technology innovation and
fierce competition among existing banks have alter a large array of banking
services.Technology is neutering the relationships between banks and its internal and
external customers.
How will the financial organizations have a huge effectiveness for future promoting
campaigns? so as to answer this, we've to research the last Marketing campaign the bank
performed and establish the patterns that may facilitate conclusions so as to develop
future methods.
1.2 Motivation
Banking system is actually a industry that provides varieties of banking and allied
services to its clients. Bank customers are such persons and organizations that have
surplus or shortage of funds and those who need various types of financial and related
services provided by the banking sector. These customers belong to completely different
state of economy, geographical locations and different professions and businesses.
Naturally, the necessity of every individual cluster of clients is distinct from the
requirements of different teams. It is,therefore, necessary to spot completely different
solid teams and even sub-groups of clients, and so with utmost exactness verify their
desires, design schemes to suit their precise desires, and deliver the foremost
expeditiously.
The Role of selling within the banking system continues to alter. For several years the
first focus of bank promoting was publicity. Then the main target shifted to Advertising
and Marketing. That was followed by target the event of a sales culture. Though all the
weather of the promoting conception – client satisfaction, profit integrated framework
and social responsibility – can stay necessary, client satisfaction should receive the best
stress within the years ahead. The chief considerations of most bank executives still target
legal and regulative problems, consistent with most surveys.
1.3 Background
Principal aspects of Bank Marketing
The word design implies that sensible promoting services have to be compelled to be
properly designed and made thus on suit a selected well-defined cluster of customers.
Moreover, such properly designed services should be properly listed. the standard of
delivery is to be ensured not solely through targeted packaging, however additionally
through correct client services offered at the bank.
The corporate objectives of the bank area unit to be found out at intervals.The company
objectives area unit of two types, Short Term and Long Term.
The Short Term Objectives may be of the type:-
Once the company objectives area unit clearly whear out, varied schemes will be
designed to meet the requirements of the customers at intervals the framework of the
chosen company objectives. Further, the resources created offered for systematic
promoting efforts are forced by policies, vision and attitudes of the management.
When we apply marketing to the banking system, the bank marketing strategy will be a
fore mentioned to incorporate the following:
The Development of selling combine to satisfy customers at a profit for the bank.
Executing made promoting methods typically takes time, cash and resources and for a
little company particularly, that may be frustrating.
Literature Survey
2.1 Introduction
In this section of the related work we describe the existing system, the limitation of the
existing system, the earlier version, current version, proposed version, and expected
results of this project.
This paper discusses about the implemented the procedure of a data mining task for
prospective business sectors analysis in retail banking. And also predefined the optimal
number of clusters (Excellent,Very Good,Good, Marginal and Bad)and used
classification methods(Decision Tree)to predict prospective business sectors based on
existing customer transactional behavioural data. The initial findings show some
interesting results. The field test conducted and found that the data mining prediction
model for prospective business sectors for disbursement of loan is very accurate and the
target-oriented campaign is very effective. The results show that most prospective
customers are in Rice and Flower Mils (Rice And FlowerMils) sectors; and Retail
Traders (RetailTraders) and Whole Seller (WholeSeller) are also very good.
The main focus of the paper was on written attributes of business customer but customer
have many unwritten behaviour attributes. So the topic exclude some important unwritten
attributes such characters, conditions and collaterals. The model is developed based on
datamining method of decision tree classification as an initial step.
Year: 2018
Description:
The objective of this paper is to assess the value of data in defining marketing strategies
and marketing management. The technological advances in recent years offer many
opportunities to marketing practitioners and researchers. However, facing abundance in
data supply makes marketing analytics often similar to finding the famous needle in a
haystack. The first section focuses on the challenges that come with Big Data. In section
2, the author analyzes the relevance of a selection of data types: search data, user-
generated content, social network data, location and sensory data, clickstream data and
web-browsing behavior, and CRM data. Section 3 uses the 4Ps of the Marketing Mix as a
framework. For Product and Place, the author presents real business cases (Netflix and
Galeria Kaufhof). The subsection for Price will critically assess the possibilityofprice
discrimination. Regarding Promotion, the author will provide examples for how
companies can use data indirectly through advertising networks to target customers. The
overall result is presented in a table that connects data types and the4Ps.
CHAPTER 3
SYSTEM ANALYSIS
Chapter – 3
System Analysis
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3.1 Introduction
Hardware Requirements
System : Dell Inspiron 3543
Hard Disk : 500 GB.
Ram : 4 GB.
Software Requirements
The software requirements document is the specification of the system. It should
include both a definition and a specification of requirements. It is a set of what the system
should do rather than how it should do it. The software requirements provide a basis for
creating the software requirements specification. It is useful in estimating cost, planning
team activities, performing tasks and tracking the teams.
Operating system : Linux Ubuntu 18.04
Coding Language : Python
Tool Used : Jupyter Notebook
3.3 Architecture
4. 1 Marketing Introduction:
“The process by which companies create value for customers and build strong customer
relationships in order to capture value from customers in return.” - Kotler and
Armstrong (2010).
Marketing campaigns are characterized by focusing on the customer needs and their
overall satisfaction. There are 4 most important variables that should be considered when
planning for a marketing campaign.
The 4 Ps:
1) Segment of the Population: To which segment of people will this marketing campaign
be useful for. This is the most important segment ,which would be the only possible way
to reach out to the customers.
2) Distributing the channel to reach out to the customer's place: Which segment of the
population should we address? Which mode of communication should we use to get our
message out? (Ex: Telephones, Radio, TV, Social Media Etc.)
3) Price: What would be the best price that we can offer to potential clients?
4) Promotional Strategy: What strategy are we going to implement in order to target the
potential clients. This should be made the last part of the marketing campaign analysis
since there has to be an in depth analysis made available from the previous marketing
campaign. In our to know the changes that has to be made in the strategy planning for the
future campaingns.
4.2. What is a Term Deposit?
A Term deposit is a deposit that a bank or a financial institution offers with a fixed rate of
interest in which your money will be returned back after a specific maturity time.
Figure 4.6.1 Checking how attributes are distributed in the loaded data and the deposits
information
Figure 4.7 Plot Diagrams for Amount of Type of Work and Balance by Term Subscription
Figure 4.8.1. Distribution of data based upon the Term Job occupation
Figure 4.8.2. Mean balance in account by Job occupation
Figure 4.8.3. Chart showing Number of Occupations
Figure 4.8.4(b)
Figure 4.8.4 (a&b) Candle stick graph showing Distribution of Ages by Occupation in detail
with values.
4.6 Analysis by Marital Status:
As discussed previously, the impact of a divorce has a significant impact on the balance
of the individual.
Figure 4.10 Analysing data based upon Educational and Marital Grop
Figure 4.10.1 Horizontal Bar Graph showing Analysis of data based upon Educational and
Marital Grop
4.8 Analysis by Loans:
Whether the prospect has a previous loan has a significant impact on the amount of balance he
or she has.
Figure 4.10 Program for Analysis of data by Loans Data and related plot graph
Figure 4.10.1 Plot Graph showing impact of loans for various attributes.
Figure 4.10.1 Resultant Correlation Matrix to determine if duration has influence on term
deposits
CHAPTER 5
TESTING AND FINAL ANALYSIS
Chapter – 5
5.1 Introduction
In this project we are going to test the prepared analysed data components by combining
all the available attributes.
I) Classification Model
III)ROC Curve
# Logistic Regression
log_reg = LogisticRegression()
log_scores = cross_val_score(log_reg, X_train, y_train, cv=3)
log_reg_mean = log_scores.mean()
# SVC
svc_clf = SVC()
svc_scores = cross_val_score(svc_clf, X_train, y_train, cv=3)
svc_mean = svc_scores.mean()
# KNearestNeighbors
knn_clf = KNeighborsClassifier()
knn_scores = cross_val_score(knn_clf, X_train, y_train, cv=3)
knn_mean = knn_scores.mean()
# Decision Tree
tree_clf = tree.DecisionTreeClassifier()
tree_scores = cross_val_score(tree_clf, X_train, y_train, cv=3)
tree_mean = tree_scores.mean()
# NeuralNet Classifier
neural_clf = MLPClassifier(alpha=1)
neural_scores = cross_val_score(neural_clf, X_train, y_train, cv=3)
neural_mean = neural_scores.mean()
# Naives Bayes
nav_clf = GaussianNB()
nav_scores = cross_val_score(nav_clf, X_train, y_train, cv=3)
nav_mean = neural_scores.mean()
Figure 5.3
Related code and Resultant output of the Cross validation of the Gradient Boosting Classifier
Figure 5.4 Resultant output in the form of a confusion matrix of the Cross validation of the
Gradient Boosting Classifier
Recall: It is the total number of "Yes" in the label column of the dataset.
Precision: It tells us how sure is the prediction of our model that the actual label is a
"Yes".
As the precision gets higher the recall gets lower and vice versa. For example, if we
increase the precision from 30% to 60% the model is picking the predictions that the
model believes is 60% sure. If there is an instance where the model believes that is 58%
likely to be a potential client that will subscribe to a term deposit then the model will
classify it as a "No." However, that instance was actually a "Yes" (potential client did
suscribe to a term deposit.) That is why the higher the precision the more likely the model
is to miss instances that are actually a "Yes"!
Figure 5.5 Related code and Resultant output of the Scores for precision and recall
The ROC curve tells us how well our classifier is classifying between term deposit
suscriptions (True Positives) and non-term deposit suscriptions. The X-axis is
represented by False positive rates (Specificity) and the Y-axis is represented by the True
Positive Rate (Sensitivity.) As the line moves the threshold of the classification changes
giving us different values. The closer is the line to our top left corner the better is our
model separating both classes.
Figure 5.6 Related code to decide which threshold to use and return precision.
Figure 5.7 Resultant Graph of Precision and Recall Tradeoff
Figure 5.8 Related code of Gradient Boosting Classifier Curve.
Figure 5.9 Resultant Graph of ROC Curve Gradient Boosting Classifier.
Figure 5.10 Related code of Gradient Boosting Classifier,Neural Classifier,Naives Bayes
Classifier and their Scores.
Duration (how long did the conversation between the sales representative and the
potential client)
contact (number of contacts to the potential client within the same marketing campaign)
Gradient Boosting classifier is the best model to predict whether or not a potential client will suscribe to
a term deposit or not. 83% accuracy!
CHAPTER 7
CONCLUSION
CHAPTER 7
CONCLUSION
2) Marketing Calls: A policy should be made,in which it states that no more tha calls
should be made to a client in oreder to save time and also to target different set of people.
3) Age Category: The bank marketing team should target people depending upon their
age as well. They should primarily target people belonging to early 20’s and also people
who are in their late 60’s. People under 20 and in early 20’s had a 60% chance of
suscribing to a term deposit while people belonging to their late 60’s had a 76% chance
of suscribing to a term deposit.
4) Occupation: As discussed in the above point people in early 20’s and old age people
in their 60’s who mostly are from student background and retired personell respectively
tend to suscribe more to the term deposit. Retired people tend to subscribe to this term
deposit in order to save their retirement amount and get a profitable intrest on that
amount.
5) House Loans and Balances: Potential clients with no balances and low balance tend
to have more number of loans such as house loans,personal loans etc because they are in
a phase where they could afford only to pay back the loan amount in installment bases
rather than saving them for term deposists. However, we can see that potential clients in
the average and high balances are less likely to have a house loan and therefore, more
likely to open a term deposit. Hence, the next marketing campaign should target
individuals of average and high balances in order to increase the likelihood of suscribing
to a term deposit.
6) Develop a Questionaire during the Calls: Since duration of the call is one of the
effective marketing strategy that most positively correlates with whether a client will save
their money in term deposit or not,by providing an intresting questionare to the clients
while making marketing calls may help us by getting some insights on the wants of a
customer.How ever, this does not assure us that the client will subscribe to a term
deposit! But, we don't loose anything by implementing a strategy that will increase the
level of engagement of the potential client leading to an increase probability of suscribing
to a term deposit, and therefore an increase in effectiveness for the next marketing
campaign the bank will execute.