"Pakistani Cities in 2030": Rasheed Ahmed Shah Rashdi

Rasheed Ahmed Shah Rashdi
ASSIGNMENT
“Pakistani cities in 2030”
Pakistan is among the most urbanised countries of South Asia. From past few years Pakistan has
been facing many issues specially economic challenges that have affected the pace of growth of
the country. And now the menace of Covid-19 has started haunting the future of Pakistan,
specially the urban areas that are crowded with people due to rapid urbanisation since past fee
years . As challenges mount, urban planning is gradually finding space in the policy discourse.
With an urban population growing three percent per year, Pakistanis are flocking to cities faster
than any other country in South Asia. By 2030, more than half of Pakistan’s projected 250
million citizens are expected to live in cities.
The main drivers of Pakistan’s urban growth are high birth rates and migration from rural areas.
Migrants are attracted to cities for better jobs and improved access to basic services. However,
urbanisation has inflated Pakistan’s biggest cities so rapidly that they struggle to deliver public
services and create productive jobs. Urban poverty is on the rise, with one in eight urban
dwellers living below the poverty line.
As a result, Pakistan’s cities contribute much less to the economy compared to other developing
countries. Pakistani cities – inhabited by 38 percent of the population – make up around 55
percent of total GDP. India’s urban population is 30 percent, with 58 percent of its GDP coming
from cities. In Indonesia, urban population and urban share of GDP are 44 percent and 60
percent, respectively.
According to the World Bank, Pakistan’s urbanisation is also ‘messy and hidden’: Messy from
low-density sprawl and hidden as cities grow beyond administrative boundaries to include
‘ruralopilises’, which are densely populated rural areas and outskirts not officially designated as
cities. Ruralopilises today are estimated to make up to 60 percent of urban Pakistan. Such
urbanisation without an accompanying shift in economic patterns does not bode well.
Without better urban planning to accommodate rapid growth, cities have the potential to become
hotbeds of discontent and unrest rather than engines of growth and innovation.
The following are the biggest challenges facing urban policymakers:

1. Poor housing quality and affordability
The State Bank of Pakistan has estimated that across all major cities, urban housing was
approximately 4.4 million units short of demand in 2015. If current trends continue, Pakistan’s
five largest cities will account for 78 percent of the total housing shortage by 2035. Even if urban
population remains stagnant, the growing trend of nuclear families who seek housing separate
from larger families will increase pressure on housing supply.
When provided, housing is often low quality. Pakistan ranks eighth among the ten countries that
collectively hold 60 percent of substandard housing across the world (United Nations MDG
Indicators; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis). Karachi, one of the world’s fastest growing
megacities with an estimated 17 million people, ranks second lowest in South Asia and sixth
lowest in the world on the Economist Intelligence Unit’s 2015 livability index.
2. Water and Sanitation
In most Pakistani cities, water is supplied only four to 16 hours per day and to only 50 percent of
the population. According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), 90 percent of water supply
schemes are unsafe for drinking. Shared latrines among households are common in cities and
access to solid waste management services remains low. In the most population-dense areas of
Karachi, one toilet is shared between twenty people. The World Bank estimates that poor
sanitation costs Pakistan around 3.9 percent of GDP; diarrhea-related death and disease among
children under five being the largest contributors.
3. Transportation
Karachi is the only megacity in the world without a mass public transport system. Meanwhile,
the cost of private transportation is estimated to have increased by over 100 percent since 2000.
Those who cannot afford the commute are forced to live in unplanned, inner-city neighborhoods.
Increased private transport on urban roads has caused severe congestion. The government has
responded by upgrading many urban roads. However, infrastructure for the most common modes
of travel in Pakistan – such as pavements for walking or special lanes for bicycles – either does
not exist or has been encroached upon. This is despite the fact that 40 percent of all trips in
Lahore are made on foot.
4. Health
While overall health and nutrition are better for urban than for rural populations, child mortality
and malnutrition indicators show that Pakistan’s urban poor have health outcomes only
marginally better than the rural poor. Better health outcomes in urban areas are explained by
improved access to private health care in cities. But with the exception of immunisation, the
utilisation of basic public health services is very low in urban areas.
Poor health outcomes are also a direct impact of the pollution caused by rapid urbanisation.
According to the World Health Organization, Karachi is the most polluted city in Pakistan with
air twice as polluted as that of Beijing. The level of pollution in Punjab’s major cities is also
three to four times higher than that determined safe by the UN.
A lack of clean drinking water remains a major contributor to the high mortality rate of children
under five years old. According to Save the Children’s 2015 Annual Report, poor urban children
in Pakistan are more likely to die young than rural children. The challenge of global warming has
also intensified in cities. A rise in concrete structures across the urban landscape is increasing
temperatures within cities. In 2015, an unanticipated heat wave in Karachi led to almost 1,500
deaths.
5. Education
Although urban areas have higher student enrollment and better learning outcomes, close to 10
percent of all children in Lahore, Karachi and Peshawar remain out of school. Like healthcare,
better education in cities is explained by the private sector. From 2001 to 2014, the share of
primary enrollment in urban private schools rose from 25 percent to 40 percent.
Moreover, there seems to be an inverse relationship between public schooling and city size. In
small cities, approximately 35 percent of all children aged five to nine are enrolled in
government schools. In state capitals, that figure drops to 22 percent.
Continued preference for private schools reflects the low quality of government schools in urban
centers. While all private schools have basic facilities (drinkable water and toilets), these are
missing in around 12 percent of government schools in Lahore. The absence of educational and
health facilities in smaller cities pushes people towards big cities, where service delivery
becomes increasingly strained as the urban population grows.
6. Land Management
Outdated land use regulation and building codes, the absence of a unified land record system and
patchy data on land use result in poor urban land management. One consequence is extreme
inequality in land use. In Karachi, 36 percent of the population lives in formally planned
settlements that consume 77 percent of the city’s residential land, where urban density can be as
low as 84 people per hectare. On the other hand, Karachi’s many informal settlements have
densities of more than 4,500 per hectare. These hugely varying densities have resulted in unequal
access to vital urban services.
To conclude, it has been witnessed that Pakistan has been battling Covid-19 with mature and
effective policy making. However, the overall social awareness and responsibility by the general
public lacks seriousness and can result in severe health emergency for the entire country . How
the nation acts against this pandemic will ultimately shape and mold the future of cities of
Pakistan. Therefore, if the entire country plans in accordance with covid preventive measures in
all aspects of life, may it be education, health, politics, industries, policy making, family system
and overall society, then the future of Pakistan’s cities as well as rural areas seems secure and on
its way towards development and prosperity .
Thank You

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Rasheed Ahmed Shah Rashdi

“Pakistani cities in 2030”

The following are the biggest challenges facing urban policymakers:

2. Water and Sanitation

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