Reading The Market, Supply and Demand 2 - and Quasimodo
Reading The Market, Supply and Demand 2 - and Quasimodo
Reading The Market, Supply and Demand 2 - and Quasimodo
Past
Approach
•Compression *
•3 Drive
Reaction
•Engulf
•Quasimodo *
•Diamond *
•The CanCan *
Abbreviations
Here are some abbreviations that you may find used in the site.
A - as a prefix - Ascending
AA- Adam and Adam
ACH - Ascending Channel
AE - Adam and Eve
AWG - Ascending wedge
BE - Break even
BE - As a prefix - Bearish, example: BEACH - Bearish ascending channel
BEB - Bearish engulfing outside bar
BEFL - Bearflag
BH - Bar highs
BNR - Bump and run
BO - Breakout
BOPA - Breakout, pullback and advance
BOPB - Breakout + pullback
BR - as a prefix - Broadening
BRN - Big round number
BU - As a prefix - Bullish
BUB - Bullish engulfing outside bar
BUFL - Bullflag
CH - Channel
CN - Continuation
CP - Compression
CPLQ - CP followed by Liquidity
CWH - Cup with handle
D - Demand
DBB - Double Bottom
DBD - Drop base drop, descending pole flag pole
DBR - Drop base rally
DBHLC - Double Bar high lower close
DBLHC - Double Bar low higher close
DBT - Double top
D1 - Daily
DD - Drawdown
DM - Diamond
In order to be able to trade the markets, we need to be able to understand why price is where it is, and where it will go to next. The
best indicator for all this is Price itself. It holds all the clues you'll ever need to work the market out. We do our trading at levels called
Supply and Demand Zones (Video), and we watch Price Action there to give us signs as to the intentions of the big money.
General: HTF. Know where price is coming from and going to, and the PA past and present in all the TFs, from the Monthly down.
Present.
Approach.
How is price returning to the zone?
Where’s the nearest flag in the TF you want to trade? This is your tg1 in this TF. Flags in the LTFs? What does PA tell you?
Has price tested the last flag on approach? (good sign)
Has price compressed into the zone in this TF or LTFs? (good sign)
Is there big news on the way? Has there just been big news?
Reaction
In LTF, does price react violently to the first decision point? Does it quickly engulf the nearest S/D? (good sign)
Does price simply CP away? Maybe it wants to go to the next decision point
If the first decision point breaks, watch the signs on approach to the next, and, of course, reaction.
Chew this over for now. Apply it to your chart history. Apply it to as many failed setups as successful ones. Millions of them if
possible! Capture and file them all. This will help make it instinctive
Goods are bought and sold at what their perceived value is at the time. The same applies for financial instruments, with the
expectation that their price will change in the future and will be bought or sold at differing prices, potentially bringing a profit for
traders.
Prices adjust according to willing buyers and sellers, in-turn creating supply and demand zones, the sellers represent the amount that is
available for sale (supply) while buyers represent the amount available to be bought (demand). It is when there is an imbalance
between buyers and sellers that we see a change in price, for example, when there are more willing sellers, price will begin to fall until
it finds more buyers and when there are more willing buyers, price will rise until it finds more sellers. Knowing where these areas are
on a price chart will give you an edge, and allow you to follow the interests of big/smart money, the real market movers.
Identifying Supply/Demand zones
First we look at the chart for an area where price strongly shot up from (demand) or dropped away from (supply).
The next step is to mark the base of these moves.
We always mark the outermost limit of a move, marking the inner is a personal preference for each of us depending how loose or tight
one wants to keep their zones.
RBD DBR and RBR DBD
As price moves it creates (swing) highs and lows, the extremes of these moves can be marked as “bases”, just like the ones marked
above. When bases are created after a “rally” or a “drop” they form a Rally-Base-Drop (RBD) or a Drop-Base-Rally (DBR).
Price can also create small bases along a rally or a drop, these smaller moves are known as Drop-Base-Drops (DBD) and Rally-Base-
Rallies (RBR).
Let’s find some on a chart.
During the formation of a base, we consider price to be in balance. This is because there is not a significant difference in the amount
of buy or sell orders in this area thus price doesn’t rally or drop as long as this balance exists. For price to start moving in a direction
there needs to be more of one type of order (buys or sells) than the other causing price to rally or to drop, it is at this point a base is
confirmed and a decision that price was either too cheap or too expensive has been made. When price moves away from a base there
are naturally unfilled orders which remain, so when price returns to the base in the future we can expect the remaining orders to be
triggered causing a reaction in price. It is this what supply/demand traders try and take advantage of.
When Supply/Demand breaks
After a level is tested many times or during a strong move, Supply and Demand levels eventually break. This can be due to the once
remaining orders being triggered and gradually removed, or an overwhelming amount of orders in the opposite direction breaking the
level. Orders can even be removed manually by a trader who formed the level.
Every broken supply/demand level holds some significance. Where once were more sell orders (supply) now more buy orders
remain/exist, with the opposite applying for demand levels. This means upon return to a broken level, we could see a reaction in price,
these levels are often referred to as “swap” levels.
It is at these levels where we can look for conformation to take a trade. This is how the look on a chart:
Part 2: Supply and Demand as reactions to the FTR
Wouldn’t it be nice if we were able to trade supply/demand levels knowing when one will hold or when one will break? Well believe
it or not we can, because as hard as it may sound supply/demand levels are NOT created equally! There are some that are much more
important than others, and some even further beyond important. Most articles on supply/demand will mostly have you read about
“reactions” to levels, because that is what is important right? Sure, they are important if all you want to do is look at the far right of
your charts and gamble, but what are the supply/demand levels themselves reactions to?
Hopefully we have pricked your attention, because this is going to be the first time something as important as this will be covered in a
supply/demand article and it is very exciting to be writing about. I can already hear you all screaming; hold on! Supply/demand levels
can be reactions to other supply/demand levels! Or Support/Resistance levels! Or MA’s and fibs! Please…If you are still using MA’s
and fibs, let me direct you to our technical analysis article.
The truth is; supply/demand are often reactions to the Flag Limit (a RBD or DBR after a break of a high or low). You can read about
the FL here. It is these levels that are the important ones, the ones that will contain price in a range, and give you the heads up when
price is going to change direction. Sure there are other areas and reasons supply/demand forms, just like the ones you yelled at me
earlier, but these are lesser important levels, ones that are much more subjected to breaks and fake moves! Knowing the important
ones will keep you on the right side of the market at all times.
Here is some help on defining these levels, but remember, to truly understand them you need to find and mark them out for
yourselves!
There are plenty of other supply/demand levels which I did not mark, but they would all hold lesser importance than the ones formed
after the breaks of highs or low. However, important levels can also break so it is important to monitor these levels for signs of
reversals. When they break however, they hold a lot of importance.
You can see from the image above I marked a DBR after a break of the highs to the left of it. This is a level that forms after a break of
a high, it’s a FTR, and we can expect it to bounce price, but it doesn’t, it breaks. The FTR that proceeds is the RBD that is the
important one, this is where we want to keenly look for PA.
How to trade Supply and Demand Areas
Conventional supply and demand trading teaches the game of probabilities; by trading enough zones, with a decent enough RR, one
should make money. These levels are in general blindly traded with a stop just above, and a target at the next level, this is very often
done with limit orders, longing there is a decent enough RR (2:1 is usually good enough).
If a proper plan is in place, this method will make you money, but it is still essentially gambling, and here at RTM we don’t gamble.
We want to be absolutely sure a level is going to hold, and once we know, we want the very best RR on every trade we take (yes 15:1
can be more common than you think!). By looking for PA in the correct spots, there is no reason you shouldn’t be able to get into
great trades, with great rewards and very little risk. You can find everything you need to know about PAin the markepedia section. So
get to work, log your progress in the homework section and join our great community.
As price moves it creates highs and lows, these often provide “support” or “resistance” when price returns. This happens because more
orders of one kind are in that area (buy or sells). When no more orders remain in these places, price will go through and we say that
the support/resistance level “breaks”.
This is essential for price to move, otherwise it would be trapped inside a range forever. So support and resistance is important as is its
breaks.
In a similar way we could draw some more SR lines on that same image.
It is very common for price to break Support and Resistance levels, old highs and lows break as the orders get depleted from them and
price moves through. Broken S/R areas will often react on return as now more orders of the opposite kind remain unfilled in these
places.
How to find S/R levels?
A common practice is to zoom out like in the chart below so you have a wider picture of the area you look at. Then look for places
that price bounced off and mark it with a horizontal line. See how price often respects these lines, then breaks them and when price
returns they often get respected again. Support becomes resistance and the opposite.
Of course you will see many times price breaking through and then reversing, often this is called a false break (false breakout, or
fakeout are some other names commonly used). The simple reason this happens is because price looks for liquidity and this often
happens in these places as traders trade these breakouts from S/R and get trapped, having their stops hit as price “fakes” and moves in
the other direction.
Price Action Zones – The last piece of the puzzle
Every candle on the chart is part of a PAZ of one form or another and knowing where price is in relation to these zones gives us a
massive edge on the markets. Up until now, we have been taught nearly everything we need to know to be successful traders, PAZs
really are the last piece of the puzzle.
So what is a Price Action Zone? A PAZ is exactly what it says; it’s a zone on your charts that show a distinct type of Price Action!
These distinct zones include poles, flags, stacked supply/demand and compression. Once we are able to accurately determine where
these zones are, there is one rule. ONLY trade the edges!
One great type of PAZ is the space between two Failure to returns’ (FTR), which is the space in which a flag forms; let’s look into this
a little further:
You can see in the above chart I have marked off 8 FTR’s as price climbed up, between each one of these FTR we have a PAZ. So we
have 7 PAZs. Simple as. Once price breaks into a PAZ (engulfs a FTR) we know it wants to go to the other side of the zone (the next
FTR). So let’s look what happens on the way back down.
$1• FTR 8 gets engulfed, price has now gotten into PAZ 1. Price retraces then goes to FTR 7
$1• FTR 7 gets engulfed, price has now gotten into PAZ 2. Price retraces then goes to FTR 6
$1• FTR 6 gets engulfed, price has now gotten into PAZ 3. Price retraces then goes to FTR 5
$1• FTR 5 eventually gets engulfed and gets into PAZ 4 and follows through to engulf FTR 4 and FTR 3 and gets into PAZ 6. Price
retraces before going to FTR 2
$1• FTR 2 gets engulfed (see insert 2). Price retraces then goes to FTR 1
Now that you know where price wants to go, it is your job to enter on a retrace to target the other side of the PAZ (the next FTR), and
we already know how to do this don’t we? PA!
Caps - RBD/DBR
When price makes a rally with a strong pole up (this whole lesson works vice versa for poles etc down), there's sure to be some profit
taking by the institutions, allowing price to drop back into the pole.
Price will very often flag at the top of the pole, as the institutions either begin to add long positions to take price higher, or begin to
hide short positions to turn price.
To understand the break of a flag, be aware of Order Flow and Liquidity gaps
This article deals with the latter scenario; price rising (rally), flagging (base), and then dropping (drop!)
The flag was a way for the institutions to keep retail traders buying in the expectation of an advance in price, giving them lots of
orders to sell against.
Seen in a slightly higher timeframe, this is a very uniform cap on price, and in every TF there's a really strong pole moving down from
it
The cap price is obviously way too high, so when price returns to it, the sellers are waiting.
There are often other signs that a cap will hold, such as the engulf in the chart above, or compression on approach
http://youtu.be/469ZS2YxjhE
Homework:
Mark at least 200 caps on your charts - there are so many to see that it won't take long.
Draw a box from the cap to where price hit it later. Note how price approached the caps, and how it reacted. If price broke the cap,
note what happened next. Was the cap still relevant?
Flag Limits
Price spends more time in consolidation ranges than moving and trending.
Until recently i would wait 'til price breaks out of these ranges and i would wait for a retest of the break.
A few months back Ifmyante posted an image of a BEFL and he said price should bounce at this area and he pointed at a DBD hiccup
in the way down.
I said i have noticed a lot of these and asked what is the name, he said "we don’t have a name for it, just a decision point".
I told him "i think i found me some new homework, i'll go find many examples of it and report back."
So here is a short article of what is a "Flag Limit" since it is widely used lately. It should help avoid confusion.
As Ifmyante said a while back : "If there's an area of indecision, it manifests itself as a flag. The limits of this flag then become the
new zones."
He also said that "the Flag Limit represents the end of the momentum".
Below are some graphic representations to simplify things before we go on real examples.
and some real examples follow
Some of course are more messy than others, the trick here is to take the best shaped and clear ones.
The whole Flag area has a lot more plays than the FTB alone.
Its your job, if you like, to take this basic setup and expand on it.
I don’t list any other plays here because it will only confuse you for now and miss the basic point.
Discussion will continue in your blogs, if you have questions post in the school room.
by Harry
Homework:
Find and chart 20 flag limits that bounced price on susequent returns - note the PA
Find and chart 20 flag limits that failed to hold price on first or subsequent return - note the PA, and where price then went
FTR
1. Introduction
Before solving the puzzle of price action and before being able to read it successfully, one must discover and understand the individual
pieces the puzzle is made of. After all, every eye-catching building is made of individual bricks and stones. For most of us at RTM,
the beauty of price action is just as stunning a structure as the cathedral of Chartres or Sagrada Familia in Barcelona. The only
difference is that bricks and stones of real buildings are represented by price caps, FTRs, engulfs, fakeouts, quasimodos, diamonds etc.
Of the building blocks of the price structure nothing is more important than engulfs and FTRs!
In my article I am going to explain one of the two most important pieces of price action – FTR. Together we will explore what is looks
like, where it can be found and what is its role in the structure of price action.
FTR must be learned properly before one can advance further. Please take your time, don’t rush; learning price action is an amazing
journey, so enjoy it.
2. What is FTR?
So, what actually is FTR? FTR means ‘Failure to Return’. But wait… Who wants to return? Where do they want to return? And why
on earth do they fail?
It’s a well known fact that price, once it reaches a certain barrier, either bounces of it or breaks it. Once it breaks it, two possible
scenarios occur: it either returns back below/above the barrier and goes on in the direction against the break or fails to return and
keeps going in the direction of the break. In the latter scenario, a FTR is made. ALWAYS! And it is of vital importance to be able to
identify it!
Why? Well, there is such a strong buying or selling pressure aka supply / demand at the FTR that the price just cannot return, it must
go on in the direction of the break.
Hint 1: the selling / buying pressure always remains at FTR after price has left. Can you see the implication? J
Now let’s take a look at the anatomy of FTRs.
In the following picture you can see a diagram showing some basic variations of FTRs. Look at them carefully, you will see that they
may look a bit different but remember: they are absolutely the same in terms of the structure.
The red line (a) represents a barrier. It can be a SUPPORT / RESISTANCE, a FTR in opposite direction (will be explained later) or
limit of a PAZ (Price Action Zone).
Price action breaks the barrier (1) and retraces (2). It is irrelevant whether price action crosses the barrier again or not (as in examples
(ii and iv above). At the extreme of the retrace a base is very often made (b).
Then, price action continues in the direction of the break (3). FTR is confirmed after price action breaks the high / low (c) which
formed after the break of the barrier. Only after the break of (c) we can say that price action indeed failed to return.
Now, when the FTR is confirmed, we draw a rectangle at the base (b) and protract it to the right.
Hint 2: for information how to draw the blue rectangles see the article Caps on Price at RTM Marketpedia.
Now that we have studied the diagrams above, we can look at real life examples of FTRs.
3. FTR after the break of SUPPORT / RESISTANCE
FTRs after the break of support / resistance are very common. They are simply everywhere in the chart and you will learn to spot
them.
You certainly know that there are major support resistance lines as well as minor ones… the more important the S/R line is, the more
significance we must assign to the FTR that follows.
Ok, let’s start with the major ones. I assume that you already know how to distinguish a major SR from minor SR...
In the following chart you can see the brown RESISTANCE line. The RESISTANCE is a major one, it has been respected many times
in the past (not just those two touches seen in the picture). Suddenly, the R line is broken. Is it just a fakeout or genuine break? How
will we know it? Yes, right! We will wait for a FTR to be formed.
And voila, a spectacular FTR is made! The price then rushes away from the R line. Now it’s going to be interesting! Such FTR is an
amazing place to trade on the first visit. The first visit occurred in approximately one week. And look at the reaction! The first visit to
an FTR is called FTB (First Time Back).
Hint 3: Upon return to the FTR the price is falling in a free fall, everyone is happily jumping into trend because “it’s going to go on
and on…” but beware, predators are patiently waiting in FTR level, and so should you…!
It’s important to know that the FTRs in the above three charts are actually not the only FTRs that can be spotted. Far from it! Every
time price breaks a minor support/resistance, fails to return and goes on, a new FTR is made!
In real life, however, the chart seldom looks so neat and clean as in the above diagram. In the following chart you can see the above
principle in a real chart (in a down trend).
Please take your time and study the above chart, you may notice that I haven’t marked absolutely ALL FTRs because the chart would
be very messy.
Open a chart in your platform and mark all FTRs. Practise! Mark a swing high/low, find where it was engulfed, then find the FTR.
Repeat with next high/low.
Remember, the purpose of the article is not to tell you that each and every FTR is tradable but to teach you how to spot FTRs and how
to mark them. Let me repeat: it is of paramount importance!
4. FTR after the break of a FTR in opposite direction
FTRs are formed after engulfing of a barrier. We already know this. One of such barriers is an FTR in opposite direction. Look at the
diagram below, I think it is self-explanatory.
The limit of a PAZ is another barrier, the break of which results in extremely important FTRs! This is, however, rather advanced and it
goes beyond the scope of this article on the FTR basics.
6. Conclusion
In my article I tried to introduce a very important building block of price structure – FTR. We have learned that FTRs are formed after
the break of a price barrier. It is important to realise that FTRs are places where institutional traders open / close their positions. This
makes them ideal places for looking for trade setups or targets.
However, it must be stressed that FTRs on their own are not enough for trading, one must master other important building blocks,
engulfing being the most important one.
Les_Paul
Compression
Touch trading a Supply/Demand zone can be a very daunting prospect, as price doesn't always react as we'd like it to.
But, we're very often shown that the big money is getting ready to turn price at the next zone.
As price is rising, they sart selling down to pockets of demand on the way, consuming the orders, so that when they put their big
orders in at Supply, all those buy orders are gone and price can slide through to the origin of the compression or beyond.
It's exectly the same principle for price compressing down to Demand
In the example below, price compresses up to a certain point, above which there is no Supply left before the origin, so it shoots up to
there before
reversing and cutting through the CP. THis is called Compression and Liquidity (CPLQ)
Here is a video about Compression by Ifmyante
http://youtu.be/bOhGwkXMG1k
3 Drive
The 3Drive onto S/D can be a strong indication that price will turn.
It shows that price advances are slowing down, while compressing up/down, taking out orders as it goes.
Engulf
If you're not one to simply trade on the touch of a zone, but would rather wait for confirmation that price has rejected, there are some
brilliant PA patterns you can look for before you enter a trade.
Simply put, an engulf involves price making a lower low on reaction to Supply, or higher high from Demand
This is a very powerful sign that price is on the turn. They say that a trend is a succession of LL's and HH's, or vice versa, so if you
get a Lower Low from Supply, it's a great first sign that the uptrend may be over, and of course flip the scenario for an HH from
Demand.
If you didn't have the patience to wait for that engulf, see the Lower timeframe for another lovely engulf showing the way much
earlier!
Well, yes, but price very often retraces after the engulf, to confuse the breakout traders and hit their stop losses, creating more
orders to take the other side of the big money's new direction trades.
This means that the stop loss would, in most cases, still need to be beyond the original zone.
Two of our favourite Price Action structures based on the engulf are the Quasimodo and the Diamond
Quasimodo
It gives a big sign that the big money is ready to change price direction. It often serves to trick the uninitiated into giving up good
positions to them, allowing them to get big orders filled.
We look for them at areas of Supply and Demand, where we look for all our trades, and use them as confirmation that price has
turned, due to the engulf that occurs in their formation
A QM doesn't need to form all at once either
Here's a video of one which took many months to form - it was also one of my favourite trades ever
http://youtu.be/JufS5cKBVng
Homework:
Find at least 60 QMs through history and file them. Mark the zones they're reacting to, and where price went to next.
They can be in any TF, any pair. Find ones that worked, and ones that failed. You'll learn from both
The Diamond
The diamond is one of the most deceptive price structures there is in the market.
It catches both buyers and sellers alike, and can fill massive orders for the big guys.
At Supply, it involves an engulf South, fakeout North, and reversal South - vice versa at Demand
Homework:
Very often price will move into, or even better, break out of a zone with strong momentum, creating a pole.
Usually a pole will have a flag on top, gathering orders for price to avance.
But if the flag breaks back into the pole, this is a significant turn in value.
Price moves hard, flags briefly, and moves back quickly with a Liquidity Spike. This liquidity spike will mean there may very well be
orders left to be filled at the edge of the flag, so you'll very often see Compression back towards it, with extra orders being hidden, so
that when price hits the cap, it can shoot back through the compression and on to the base of the pole.
Here's an example
and another
Find and describe at least 20 cancans throughout history. Any pair, any timeframe