How To Spot Trading Channels
How To Spot Trading Channels
How To Spot Trading Channels
Same trade with a twist. Instead of putting in a buy limit, let’s sell a 840 naked
put option. Now this does two things; a) if AMZN gets to 840 or lower at
expiration, you will end up long the stock (that is what is desired in this case),
and b) by selling a put option, you will bring in money. In other words, the market
is going to pay you to place a buy limit on a stock (that is pretty cool). Below is
an option chain for AMZN. Based off the chart, AMZN is trading at 848.96, so
AMZN is going to have to drop 9 points to exercise us. So it would probably be
good to wait a while before selling the put to get more premium, but since we
cannot put extended time in an article, we will use what we have (the concept is
the same). Look at the Mar 31 ’17 options. The 840 put is selling for around
4.10 (Last Trade). So if we put an order to sell at 4.10 and are filled, we will bring
in $410 of credit. If by Mar 31, AMZN does not get to 840, we keep the $410 just
for trying.
Note: if AMZN drops to 848 from 840, the put option will increase in value and
your account will show that you are losing money on the option. This is not the
case unless you buy it back at a loss. Remember the end game, you want to be
long the stock from 840. AMZN will have to be below 835.90 for you to start to
lose money (840 – 4.10 (premium brought in from the sold put) = 835.90). Let
them exercise if they can, that is what we want.
If we get exercised, then we will put a stop below 830, around 829.89 (just below
830 by a little bit), Risking $1,011. We will then sell a 860 covered call and
probably get another 4.00 or so. So total premium brought in will be $810. If
AMZN drops and stops us out, we will need to buy back the covered call (that
now has turned into a naked call), but since AMZN has dropped, the call will
decrease in value and we will probably be able to buy it back around 1.00 or so.
So we get $700 in premium and lose $1,011 on the stock for a total of $311 loss.
Now, if AMZN goes up, and we get called away at 860, we get $2000 off the
stock and $810 off the options for a total of $2810. So in this case, we are
risking $311 to make $2810. Which scenario do you like best, a 1:2 risk/reward
or a 1:9 risk reward? This is the luxury of options.
AMZN Option Chain
AMZN is a bit extreme since it is an expensive stock and is quite volatile. Let’s
go to the blue chips and grab a stock like Caterpillar (CAT). Below is a daily
chart of CAT. Notice it has support around 92 and resistance around 95. Next
support is around 90.50, so we will use 90.19 for a stop if we get filled. Using the
same technique let’s look at selling the 92 put. In the option chain below, the 92
put is going for around 0.80. Again, if it does not get there we get to keep the
$80 and try again. If we get exercised, we place the protective stop at 90.19 and
sell a Apr covered call at 95 for around 1.21. There are weekly options on CAT,
however, we want to be able to finance the protective stop the best we can. By
going out to the monthly option, we can get there. If we add the two options
together (0 .80+1.21=2.01) we will bring in about 2.00. If we are long from 92
and need to risk to 90.19, we risk 1.81 on the stock. The premium we bring in
will cover the protective stop. If we get stopped out, we buy back the short call
and will probably lose around $25 or so depending on how much time is left in
the option. If CAT moves up and we get called away at 95, we pick up $300 from
the stock and $221 from the option premium for a total of $521. Again we can
have the standard 1:2 ratio, but the 1:20 ratio of this trade seems much better.
We do have to throw the glass half empty theory in here since there are those
who are pessimists and will ask, “what if CAT is at 85 when you get exercised, or
what if AMZN is at 830 when you get exercised? What will you do then?” You’ve
got to love those people. First, panic never solved anything so please get that
out of your mind. But think about it very quickly. We did bring in premium when
we sold the put, so we have reduced the risk somewhat. Next question is, if you
just put a buy limit in and is sold off to that level, what would you normally do?
You could sell a covered call at entry (90 on CAT or 830 on AMZN) and if you get
called away, then you will make nothing on the stock but get to keep the premium
from the options, still not losing anything. You could sell at the money calls and it
will reduce your loss considerably, especially on AMZN but not as much on CAT.
Another thing, what if you end up long the stock, it does not stop you out, but is
not called away from you. Even better in my opinion. You brought the money in
from the naked put and the covered call, and now you get to sell another covered
call. Before selling the same strike price, however, look at higher strikes, you
may be able to get the same premium as before if the stock has moved higher.
There are many ways to scan for stocks. Many have their own favorite stocks
that change over time. You will find some stocks that do not have options. I do
not like stocks that don’t have options for the simple reason that I cannot
minimize my risk and maximize my gain. The key is to trade stocks that have
some volatility so that the option premium is higher. Coke (KO) has options but
since the stock does not move much the option premium is low and therefore you
cannot finance the protective stop. Below is a scan for stocks out of the DTI
RoadMap™ software. It scans for optionable securities that are between $50-
$600, and are recommended buys/sells between Mar 23 and May 8 (it is sorted
buy highest P&L).
Starting in the middle to the end of April, stocks begin to move again after the
“when in May go away” occurrence is over. Look at the Standard Deviation (Std
Dev) column. The higher the standard deviation, the more volatile the stock. So
I will look at these to see if they are trending with the overall markets, and if so
then they are prospects for trading.
Market direction is also important. You can do this same strategy on the short
side as well. When markets are bearish like we saw back in 2008-2009, selling
calls many times did not get exercised, however, if they did, then sell a covered
put to use the premium to finance the stock. But direction is important. First look
at the year open, month open, and week open, and compare it to the current
price of the stock. If the stock is above all three it is strong, if below all three it is
weak. If it is between some of them then look at the indexes (S&P, Dow 30,
NASDAQ) and see if they are doing the same. If they are, then wait until a
clearer picture can be seen. Below is a chart of the S&P and 3M. Notice on the
left chart that the S&P is above the year, but not the month and week open.
However, 3M is above the year open, month and right at week open. If the
market rallies from here, 3M would be a good candidate to sell puts on and see it
runs faster. But the S&P will need to begin to rally and take out some resistance
levels before doing that.
The same can be done for futures contracts if you have experience with them. I
like using options on bonds to help pay for the utilities each month. Utilities, no
one likes to pay for them, but they are necessary. To help pay for the utilities,
trading bond futures options seem to work well. Let’s discuss bond futures and
their options a bit before we get to trading them. Bond futures are a commodity
that trades in 1/32 increments and are worth $1000 per point and $31.25 per tick
(1000/32 = 31.25). It controls a $100,000, 30 year US treasury bond. It is traded
by the bond price, not the interest rate of the bond, though, it is interest rate
sensitive. So if interest rates go higher, bond price goes lower, and if interest
rates go lower, bond prices go higher. Bonds open at 17:00 and close at 16:00
CT. The price is displayed in decimal form or with a dash; 147.23, or 147-23, and
sometimes 147’23. The 23 is in 32nd. So the price is 147 and 23/32. If you
multiply that by 1000, the bond is worth $147,718.75. Par value is $100,000, so
in this case you would be paying a $47,718.75 premium. Economic new will
affect bonds, as they look for inflationary (rising interest rates) or deflationary
(falling interest rates) indications.
Options on bond futures trade in 64th increments. They trade as long as the
bond futures are open and trading, so you can actually get out of your trade in
the middle of the night, if need be. They are still $1000 per point but since they
are half of a bond future tick, then they trade $15.625 per tick. The option are no
different than equity options except the price per point/tick is different and you
are only controlling one bond futures contract, as opposed to 100 shares of
stock. You will also notice that the strike prices are every point. This should give
us enough back ground to discuss the Utility trade.
There are weekly options on the bonds. Some platforms only offer the monthly
options, so beware of that. We are looking for income, so we will be selling the
options to bring in premium. We want the option to deteriorate over the time of
the option. So if we sell a bond option at 16 (16/64) we will bring in $250. If we
buy back the option at 5 (5/64), we pay $78.125 for it. The difference is the
profit, 250-78.125 = $171.875. If we do this 2 to 3 times per month, this will
generate $400 - $500 per month, per contract, to help pay the utilities.
To set up the trade, first we don’t want to risk more than $300 per contract in any
trade. So if we sell an option at 16, then if it doubles or goes 19 ticks against us,
then we will get out of the trade. If using weekly options, we will not be bringing
in much premium, so we will look for something between 10 and 20 ticks on the
options ($150 - $300), and look to get out between 0-5. Next we need to look at
the trend of bonds. Here is a daily chart on the USM17 (June 2017, 30yr
Treasury bond future):
Notice bonds are in a downtrend. So selling call options will be the safest play
since bonds will have a tendency to go down. We will try to sell options at the
resistance point (R1 or R2). Of course, the closer it is to the resistance point the
more premium that will be brought in and the further away from that point brings
the least premium unless we go out further in time. If your platform only does
monthly options, then I’d use resistance point further back, but if using weekly
options, use the closest. Another thing to keep in mind, find out when the big
economic news is coming out since bonds will react to it.
Look at the option chain below. Our R1 is around the 151-16 (151.50, since 16 is
half of 32) strike. The Mar 31 call option is trading at 63/64. The 152.50 is at
15/64. The 152.5 is between the R1 and R2 on the chart and a little less risky
since bonds have to rally another point to get to that strike. So you have to make
a decision on which option to sell. Let’s be a little more conservative and do the
152-50 strike. The current bid and offer are 14/64 – 16/64. If we put an order to
sell at 15/64 and get filled, we will bring in about $234.38. If today is Mar 27 and
bonds are trading at 150-27, we will have to wait 5 days for the option to expire.
As long as the bond futures stay below 152-16 then the option will lose value
each day. If there is a big economic news day this week, we will need to either
get out and take the profit we have, or be ready to exit if the bonds rally off the
news.
Doing this trade a couple of times a month can cushion the blow of the bills that
come once a month. We can’t win them all, but remember, we will not risk
anymore than $300 per contract. So one loss will scratch one win and a half for
the most part. If you have never traded options on bonds, paper trade it for a
couple of weeks to see how it goes. Once you get the hang of it, start paying
some bills.
Bigger Profits Are Easier When Your Trades Are Immediately Profitable
Welcome, if you’re a day trader, swing trader or options trader this article is for you
because…
You’re about to discover a focused approach to anticipating the markets’ next move, along
with trading tactics that lead to immediate profits and trade entries you can be confident in
trading whether you are a new trader or have years of experience.
Think about how you feel, and how you tend to trade, when a new trade is substantially
profitable immediately after you enter it.
Now contrast that feeling with how you feel, and tend to trade, when the market is about to
close and you’ve been in a trade for a few hours that is trading at a loss.
If you’re like most traders, the immediately profitable trade creates a desire to “trade this one
right.” Your thoughts are on how to make the most of the apparent opportunity. You’re also
enjoying trading.
The losing trade scenario, on the other hand, is disappointing. You’re more likely to be
thinking about how to change the trade, rather than confidently sticking with your initial plan.
This is common even among experienced and disciplined traders who know that losses,
when managed properly, are not a problem.
Regardless of our trading style or instrument (day trading, swing trading, investing, stocks,
ETFs, options, forex, etc.) I believe that we all enjoy trading more when our trades are
immediately profitable.
More importantly, I also believe that immediate profitability makes it easier to be more
disciplined, which in turn leads to more trading success.
Immediate profits are only one important result of having great entry
strategies and tactics.
Even more important than immediate profits is having enough confidence in your trade to
ensure you trade with discipline. When you have enough confidence in your trade,
“immediate” profits becomes a relative term. This means that even if a trade initially trades at
an unrealized loss, you won’t have that feeling of disappointment.
How To Create The Confidence In Your Trade That Eliminates The
Frustrating Feelings Of Unrealized Losses And Reduces Real Losses!
Successful traders confidently believe they are doing the right thing when they take a loss.
Since beginning my trading career in 1990 on the floor of the New York commodities
exchanges, and spending years in a multi-billion dollar hedge fund, I’ve worked with
hundreds of professional traders and thousands of active individual investors. In this time
I’ve found that confidently taking a loss is a common theme among successful traders at
every level – floor traders, fund managers, and active individual traders.
One goal of this book is to show you how you can have the confidence of a pro in
determining and executing on your stop losses, so you can improve your profitability. There
are several ways to accomplish this level of confidence, but this book is narrowly focused on
a very specific way of identifying great trade entries with stops you can have confidence in.
A great trade entry is one that has a risk level (a stop loss)and three important qualities:
1. You believe that you should exit the trade when the stop level is hit. This leads to
consistently executing your plan.
2. The potential loss is small relative to the expected return when profit targets are hit. This
leads to more profitable system.
3. The frequency of getting stopped out is in line with frequency and expected return when
profit targets are hit. This leads to a more predictable equity curve and more confidence in
trade execution.
A simple starting point for selecting a stop level that can provide all three of
these critical qualities of a great trade entry is to have your stop loss be
outside of the current day’s range.
The low or high of the day creates an emotionally powerful “line in the sand” that seems to
naturally command the respect of traders. Think about how you feel when markets make
new highs or lows. Are you more inclined to pay attention and respect the “trend of the day”
at this point?
In my experience of working with successful traders, most traders are more likely to feel
confident that their stop is safe when it’s beyond the current day’s trading range. This alone
can improve your trading because it leads to less second guessing and moving stops
prematurely.
Additionally, traders tend to feel more accepting of the fact that their trade is not working and
exit the trade as they planned when it corresponds with a break of the current day’s range.
This leads to more disciplined trading and less second guessing your stops when they are
hit.
However, better trading is not simply placing your stop below the low of the day if you’re
long, or above the high of the day if you’re short! You need more of an edge to determine
when the high or the low of the day has been put in, and which days you should use this
tactic.
In other words, you must identify the RIGHT DAY and TIME to use the day’s
range as your stop.
You’re about to discover a reliable way to determine the day’s high or low early in the day.
This creates powerful opportunities for all trading styles to use these levels for great stops
that are quick and easy to identify and, as discussed above… leads to less second
guessing.
For example:
If you’re a day trader… when you are able to buy near the low of the day, you’ll find many
opportunities for trades that will have very profitable reward-to-risk ratios that don’t require
the market to do much more than simply return to the high of the day!
If you’re a swing trader… you’ll be able to pinpoint the exact days to take very low risk
trades that are more likely to enable you to avoid holding positions overnight that are not yet
profitable. In addition to having more of your first days in the trade be profitable, you’ll be
able to identify trades that have multi-day or more trend potential, creating huge profits
relative to your initial stop level.
If you’re an option trader… you’ll be able to identify market turning points for precise timing
of directional option strategies, and enjoy the benefits just listed for the day traders and
swing traders.
Use This Floor Trader’s Secret Charting Tactic To Anticipate The Market’s
Highs, Lows, Trends & Reversals
It may seem hard to believe, but this trading tactic can be so simple that I used it to “chart
the market” without a computer! I didn’t have a computer standing on the trading floor in the
early 1990’s.
Despite its simplicity, the principle works because it is based on the driving force behind the
most important price points of any trading day. That force is human emotion – fear and
greed.Remember your feeling of excitement when the market in which you hold a position
goes racing your way right as the market opens? How about the feeling when the market
gaps open in the direction of your position? Nice way to start the day.
And have you also had the frustrating experience of the excitement from a market open in
your direction turn to disappointment as the market suddenly reversed? If you’ve traded for
any period of time then you’ve certainly felt the anxiety of a profitable trade swinging into a
losing position in the opening half hour of the trading day.
Fortunes and egos are inflated and burst during the opening several minutes in many
markets all the time. Even if you have or don’t have a position in the market, the opening
minutes of the trading day can be an emotional roller coaster. This is exactly why the first 30
minutes of the trading day turns out to be very statistically reliable in determining the day’s
high or low.
In fact, 50% of the time the S&P 500 will make its high or low of the day within the first
30 minutes of the trading day.
I’m using the S&P 500 as the example, but you will find other markets (stocks, ETFs, and
futures) to have a similar statistical bias that you can profit from and here’s how…
Stop and think about some of the implications of this data.
● The first 30 minutes is only 8% of the trading day, yet 50% of the time it determines the
day’s high or low. This makes it a very significant time of the day for anticipating
reversals and setting price levels that will likely remain as the high or low for the entire
day.
● If you are going to set your stop below the low of the day, you give yourself a big statistical
edge by waiting for the first 30 minutes of trading to finish.
Plus, you can make this statistical edge even stronger by combining it with a few simple
indicators.
We’ve found easy ways to identify market conditions that indicate with 83% accuracy that the
high or low will be determined in the first 30 minutes of a particular day. Even more
impressive is that when these same criteria are used, you can determine that the low of the
day has been set after the first 30 minutes 62% of the time. These are the best days to use
the low of the day in your stop.
The Opening Range Defined
From this point forward in this book I’ll refer to the high and low of the first 30 minutes of the
trading day as the “Opening Range” or the “O.R.” The Opening Range can be calculated
using other time frames as well. Common time frames include 2, 5, and 15 minutes, and
even the first hour.In our trading at MarketGauge we focus on the 2, 5 and 30-minute
Opening Ranges. They all serve specific purposes. For example, the 30-minute O.R. is the
best place to start for buying against the low of the day (or selling against the high) for day
traders and swing traders.
Of course you’ll use charts on your computer to figure out the day’s Opening Range, but now
you can see how floor traders could use this tactic even without access to a computer. As
illustrated in Chart 1, the OR high is simply the high for the day after the first 30 minutes of
trading, and the OR is the low of the day at that time.
Chart 1: O.R. Defined
This is much riskier than finding a bottom when the market is in a neutral to bullish mode (i.e.
over the O.R. low).
Additionally, any rally from below the O.R. low will have to get through the resistance of the
O.R. low (see chart 2).
As you now know, the O.R. low is often significant support until it is broken, and becomes a
significant area of resistance once broken.
As a result, it is very common for rallies during a down trending day to roll over at the O.R.
low, and resume the day’s down trend.
Use Opening Range Reversals To Buy Near The Low, Or Short Near The
High
When you combine Opening Range Reversal tactics with the emotional benefit, and
statistical edge of placing your stops outside the day’s range as discussed earlier…
You have a very effective approach to entering low risk trades that have a high
probability of working consistently!
An Opening Range Reversal (ORR) describes a condition when the market has reversed
against an O.R. high or low sufficiently to anticipate that the low or high of the day has been
set, and it can therefore be used effectively as a stop for your trade. The basic ORR trade
setup that I’ll cover here occurs when the O.R. low is touched or broken followed by a rally
back over the O.R. low. As you become more familiar with how markets trade near their O.R.
lows you’ll discover many profitable trading patterns, but to get started you only need to
know one simple pattern.
A Simple Pattern That Puts Money In Your Trading Account Quickly
Because It Pinpoints Reversals
Chart 3: Higher Candlestick Close
This pattern is so effective at spotting intraday reversals that I use it for more than
identifying O.R. Reversals, but right now our objective is to understand when to buy
markets near their low of the day using the ORR and this pattern.
I use 5-minute charts for this pattern.
At MarketGauge we call this pattern the Higher Candle Close (HCC). It occurs when a 5-
minute bar closes over the high of the prior bar.
Yes, the pattern is that simple, and it works extremely well. But the secret to why it works
so well is that we’re using it when it occurs near the O.R. low!
WARNING: Like most good trading tools, this pattern works well when used in the right
market conditions. If you use this pattern randomly it can be frustrating, and even be as
annoying as turning on your car’s windshield wipers when the sun is shining! You must
combine it with the O.R. Reversal setup.
When I share this secret setup I’m often asked…
Does it work on 1-minute charts? (probably because traders are always looking to act
quicker, and cut risk tighter).
Well, at MarketGauge we also trade with, and teach how to use 1-minute charts for more
advanced O.R. patterns along with price and time confirmation, but we DO NOT use
this HCC pattern on 1-minute charts.
So, to get started all you need is a 5-minute bar chart or candlestick charts, which you
can find on any charting platform, and the next step - a simple way to identify the best
Opening Range to trade with the HCC.
The Best Opening Range Conditions For Consistent Profits
When you’re looking at an O.R. for a potential trade think of it like finding a place to live.
You’ll ask yourself 3 basic questions.
1. What does it look like?
2. Where is it located?
3. What’s the price?
A “good looking” O.R. for an ORR trade has a well-defined O.R. low price
level. Remember from earlier in this article, the O.R. works best when the market is
active and emotionally charged with either fear or greed.
This is demonstrated in the charts by the existence of volatility and/or big volume.
Therefore, a welldefined
O.R. low is one that has multiple 5-minute bar lows near it, or a big range bounce from it,
or big volume near the O.R. low level. All of these indicate that traders are reacting to
the O.R. low, and imply that if the market breaks the O.R. low, and then begins to rally
(as defined by the HCC), it is time to trade! Chart 3 above is a good example of this.
“Good location” for an ORR has two considerations
1. The low of the day should be close to the O.R. low. The reason you want the low of
the day to be relatively close to the O.R. low is because a good ORR trade defines its
risk with a stop under the low of the day, and its entry over the O.R. low. In an ideal
situation the distance from the entry point to the low of the day should be a fraction of
the market’s average daily range.
2. The O.R. low and/or the low of the day should be in a good location relative to
important daily chart key reference points. This is very easy criteria to use to filter
out the best ORR trades, and one of the most powerful determinants of the
predictable profit potential.
Simply put… The best ORR trades occur in the direction of the daily trend and at support
and resistance levels that can be identified on the daily charts.
Chart 4: AMZN’s location lined up with support from the prior day and the
important key reference point of the Floor Trader Pivot (not visible on this chart).
“The price” is your entry price and your risk! It doesn’t take long to become good at
quickly
identifying good looking Opening Ranges in good locations.
This is a skill and tactic you can apply to almost any market and easily adopt into your
existing trading rules, or simply trade it as described here, which is to apply the HCC
pattern to determine the trade entry.
The Simple Entry Trigger That’s Been “Hidden” in Your Charts All
Along
As you start looking at the markets using the O.R. along with the HCC pattern in the way
I’ve described in this book, you’ll find that some trades are such obviously great
opportunities that you’ll want to be more aggressive, and get into the trade as quickly as
possible.
You’ll also find trades that look great, but you’d like to have a little more confirmation
before entering (i.e. general market conditions may be bearish).
Now that you know what the HCC pattern is, and where to best apply it, we can focus on
the actual “entry price” trigger point for what I’ll describe as the HCC-ORR trade.
There are actually 3 potential trigger points for an entry. They are all slight variations of
the same basic pattern of trading over the prior bar’s high, but they give you the ability to
be more aggressive vs. waiting for more confirmation that the market has turned up.
IMPORTANT: For the purposes of this lesson, it is assumed that any entry trigger point
described here is also above the O.R. low.
Maximum Confirmation
The entry trigger with most confirmation, and the one I’d start with, is to wait for the 5-
minute bar to close over the prior bar’s high, AND then enter when the market trades
over the HCC high. This means your entry trigger is actually a trade over the high of the
HCC bar.
I will almost always use this trigger if the close of the HCC is not convincingly above the
prior bar high, or if the high of the HCC bar is very close to the closing price. In these
cases you’re not increasing your risk by very much, yet you’re getting some extra
confirmation the price is moving your way.
Chart 5 below shows an example of a big range HCC reversal with confirmation.
Chart 5: A good wide range HCC with confirmation
No Confirmation
There are times where you will not want to wait for maximum confirmation described
above. In this case the trigger is simply the close over the prior bar high and the entry is
on the open of the following bar.
This is can be used for situations where the HCC bar’s close is significantly above the
prior bar’s high, and it may even have good volume. In other words, the market has
clearly demonstrated a reversal.
In fact, sometimes you will get this pattern, and have the opportunity to wait for a
pullback in price to the high of the prior bar to be able to enter a lower price.
However, if you do not have a good demonstration of range expansions and or volume
this can be risky. Chart 6 above is an example of a HCC at the ORR that did not confirm
and continued lower.
“Jumping The Gun”
As the subtitle “jumping the gun” suggests, this is getting in before the HCC is complete.
With some experience in trading ORR patterns you’ll be able to get away with this, and
get in early on some trades, but be careful. I would prefer to have unusual volume in
situations where I use this approach.
The trigger when you jump the gun is to enter when the market trades over the prior bar
high. So you’re not waiting for the close in what you expect to be a HCC bar.
6 Steps To Identifying and Executing Low Risk, High Profit Potential
ORR Trades With Confidence
It’s time to pull everything together, summarize the key steps to initiating an Opening
Range Reversal trade.
1. Let the 30-minute O.R. form.
2. Focus first on the Opening Ranges that are in a good location relative to the daily
chart’s trend and support levels.
3. Identify the Opening Ranges in a good location that also look good for an ORR trade.
This means they have well-defined support at the O.R. low.
4. Use the HCC as your entry trigger.
5. Define your risk as being under the low of the day. Give the market room to break the
low of the day by a small margin and reverse without stopping you out!
6. Set your initial profit targets. If you are a day trader, take at least partial profits near
the high of the day, and move your stop to no loss after the market moves in your
favor. If you’re a swing trader, you’re initial target may be higher (and your stop
may be lower).
Identifying Trade Opportunities In Seconds With This Simple Chart
Display
In my charting platform I have a window that shows both the daily chart and a 5-minute
candle chart with volume. As you know the candles on the 5-minute chart are not
required, but they make it easier to see where a bar closes relative to the prior bar high.
With these two charts in plain view it only takes a few seconds to spot when the O.R. low
lines up with key daily levels, and when a HCC forms.
Don’t Sabotage Yourself By Setting Your Trades Up To Fail
You can evaluate every day’s price action with the perspective of the O.R. to anticipate
the market’s next move, but the key to profiting from it is knowing how to spot high
probability setups like the one I’ve revealed in this article.
Remember my analogy from earlier – You don’t use your windshield wipers on a sunny
day!
The ORR combined with the HCC entry is an incredibly powerful pattern, but every O.R.
low will not reverse. However, you now know how to select good looking ORR patterns.
And you know that the location of the O.R., in the context of a bullish daily chart, is the
easiest way to identify the most reliable and highest potential ORR trades for both the
day trader and swing trader.
Be selective! If all the trade ingredients are not there, wait for the next one.
Chart 7: With a daily chart display next to the 5-minute you can see “good
location” easily.
The "Rabbit Trail" Channel Trading
Strategy
Ben Lositer, TradingStrategiesGuides.com
Line #1 and Line #2 are Parallel to each other. The price would hit a line and then either
go straight back down or up into what is called the channel.
And what happens when the price movement breaks this channel is huge!!
Which is why I took the time to developed this simple trading strategy for you..
And I am now going to share this with you because I want you learn this strategy and
implement it into your trading system!
So let’s get down to the basics of this strategy..
And learn why I called this the: The Rabbit Trail Trading Strategy.
What is a Channel and why is it important for this strategy?
A channel is simply a price movement that uses support and resistance in the past to
validate what it will do in the future. The price movement will hit these points (resistance
or support) and “bounce” back into the channel.
...
Ascending Channel
Descending Channel
Horizontal Channel
There needs to be at least two support and resistance levels to validate
a channel!
The support and resistance points are marked on the pictures above.
You can see in the three examples above that they all have at least 2 levels of each of
these .
This is a diagram of what support and resistance looks like.
When the market moves up and then pulls back, the highest point reached before it
pulled back is now resistance. The same concept can be applied for support but only the
opposite.
When constructing these channels, ALWAYS remember that both lines need to be
parallel to each other. Do not force trend lines to look like a channel. If they aren’t
parallel then it is clearly not a channel that formed.
Helpful information: If you are completely new to this type of trading dive into some
charts and do some channel work. Simply go back in time on the charts and draw
yourself some channels. If they match what you see above, perfect! Keep doing them!
Once you did about 100 of these it should be fresh on your mind and you will be ready to
master a trading strategy that mainly focuses on these channels.
So now since you are the master of channels let’s look at what this strategy is all about..
Rule #1: Draw a channel on a 4 hour or 1 hour chart.
The first thing you need to do to get this strategy started off is you need to find a channel
on a four hour or one hour chart. Remember there must be two resistance and support
points to validate a channel.
This strategy can use many currency pairs. Make sure you search through all of them.
Many say that they “only trade EURUSD.” There is no reason for that..
Get in the charts and see for yourself! There are channels everywhere. This strategy will
work with any currency pair. The opportunities are endless..
Sorry for that rabbit trail, let’s get back to this strategy!
So below is a prime example of a horizontal channel. This is a AUDNZD chart taken on
a 60 minute time frame.
Not too bad. So basically all you are doing here is drawing parallel lines on the tops and
bottoms of the price movement. This example hit a quite a few resistance and support
levels which means that when it breaks this channel it has the potential to make a huge
move!
I added the color where the channel is highlighted. You need to make sure that both of
your lines are parallel to each other.
Rule #2 Identify If there is a Breakout on a 1 hour chart.
The way you find the trade is to find a breakout of the channel that you drew on your
chart..
In a perfect world the support and resistance levels will hold on forever..
But the world isn’t perfect..
So again, we WAIT for a pullback candle to close and then we need two BULLISH
(green) candles to close to many an entry.
The chart above clearly shows you that there was not a clear
two consecutive bullish candles until it came back down and then made its aggressive
move upward which resulted in 4 consecutive bullish candles.
REMEMBER this is a 15 minute time frame chart.
*If you plan to use this strategy as is and not choose to tweak it then save this
chart above as a guide for your entry criteria!
I recommend you use the color candles for this strategy that way you can easily see
which candles close bullish or bearish.
Trust me it will help you a lot when you are looking for your entry point.
So now since we have our entry point down let’s find the stop loss placement.
Rule #5 Stop Loss Placement
This is probably one of the most important rules of the strategy.
You always need to place a stop loss somewhere for a reason. If you are throwing in
stop losses 5 to 10 pips from your entry order just because someone you read that
somewhere, then you are without a doubt treading some dangerous waters.
In a Buy The stop loss will be placed in the channel below the last support point.
In a SELL The stop loss will be placed in the channel above the last resistance point.
In our example you can see where the stop loss was placed.
That way if it does come back in the Channel it will hit the support level and end up
going back up in a bullish movement.
Rule #6 Ride The Rabbit Trail to 50 pips!
The last thing you need to do is know when to exit the trade.
This strategy goes for a 50 pip target.
So when you make your entry, you calculate 50 pips take profit mark and place it.
The price movement to your target is now called the rabbit trail.
The rabbit trail may be 2 hours, or could take as long as two days. You have your target
so really you have nothing else to do but sit back and watch your trade make you some
money!
Stay in the trade and remember your rules. You are going for a 50 pip breakout trade!
So to recap, here is what needs to happen in order for you to enter a trade with the
Rabbit Trail Trading Strategy:
If you need to, Copy these rules down in front of you when you are using this strategy. It
really makes it easy once you get this system perfected.
Rule #1: Draw a channel on a 1 hour chart.
Rule #2 Identify If there is a Breakout on 4 hour or 1 hour chart.
Rule #3 Wait for a Pull Back on a 15 minute Chart.
Rule #4 After Pull Back, Make Entry.
Rule #5 Find a Stop Loss Placement.
Rule #6 Ride The Rabbit Trail to 50 pips!
I Hope you find great success with this strategy and always remember to only be risking
no more than 2% of your account.at a time per trade.