Kathmandu University School of Management: Gwarko, Lalitpur
Kathmandu University School of Management: Gwarko, Lalitpur
Kathmandu University School of Management: Gwarko, Lalitpur
Gwarko, Lalitpur
Submitted by:
Akriti Dahal-177019
Namita Lamichhane-177054
Submitted to:
Table of Contents
2
Introduction 3
Problem Statement 5
Research Question 6
Research Objective 6
Literature Review 6
Methodology 14
Research Procedure 16
Administration of the Questionnaire 16
Data Analysis 17
Limitations 17
References 17
Appendix 19
3
Introduction
development. To improve the economy, development of the capital market and money market
is very crucial. Financial institutions like banks and finance companies contribute in
developing the money market as well as the capital market by mobilizing the deposit
amounts.
Shareholders get dividends out of the profit. Instead of paying dividends a firm can
also retain the fund to exploit other growth opportunities. In this way, shareholders can
expect benefit indirectly through future increase in price of stock. Their wealth can be
increased through either dividend or capital gain. And dividend policy contains the decision
to pay out earnings versus retaining them for reinvestment in the firm. Thus dividend policy
by management of the corporate firm only if profits are made after successful business
operation. Dividend implies the portion of retained earnings which is paid to the stockholders
while dividend policy refers to the guidelines that corporate management uses in establishing
the portion of retained earnings that is paid to the stockholders in dividends which should be
able to provoke that dividend meet the average shareholders expectation. (Chen, 2020)
According to Friend and Puckett (1964), Dividend policy involves the decision to pay
out earnings versus retaining them for reinvestment in the firm. In this sense, dividend policy
is concerned with balancing the current income to the shareholders and future growth of the
firm through the reinvestment of retained earnings that maximize the prices of the stock.
4
Therefore, dividend is both a problem and opportunity, which can affect the internal and
Dividend policy is equally important for managers and investors, as investors have to
plan a return on their investment portfolio. Dividends are not only a source of income for
investors but also a signal of company performance. So selecting a suitable dividend policy
for a company is one of the most important decisions for the management and investors.
(Joshi, 2012). Higher dividends increase the value of the shares and low dividends reduce the
price of share. In order to maximize wealth under uncertainty, the firm must pay enough
However, there are two different views regarding dividend policy and stock price.
Those who think dividends have more impact in determining share price, argue that
shareholders prefer current return rather than future return and dividend distribution is an
indicator of earning capacity in future. The other views are based on the importance of
retained earnings. They argue that retained earnings are an indicator of future investment
A number of studies on impact of dividends on stock price have been carried out in
different parts of the world particularly in developed countries. Most of the earlier studies
show the significant role of dividend policy on stock price. The corporate firms should follow
the appropriate dividend policy to maximize the shareholders' value (Joshi, 2012). The
overall objective of this paper is to observe the impact of dividends on stock price in Nepal.
On top of that this paper will also determine the relationships of market price per share with
related financial indicators such as earnings per share and retained earnings.
5
Problem Statement
Dividend policy remains a controversial issue in the field of finance, the question
whether dividend policy affects the stock prices or not is still not resolved very clearly.
Black and Scholes (1973) concluded that there is no relation between stock price and
dividend whereas Ahmed (2011) concluded that retained earnings were the main factor that
impacted volatility of share price in the market. Malaysian researchers showed positive
relations while one of the Nepali journals written by Amar Dhungel claimed that profitability
was the factor to influence share price. Black (1976) concluded that dividend yield is not
In the context of Nepal, the empirical findings of dividend research have produced
mixed results. Chhetri (2008) found a positive relationship between the dividend theories and
the corporate dividend policy, while others did not. Manandhar (1998) found that dividend
per share and return on equity have positive impacts on market capitalization while earnings
per share, price-earnings ratio, and dividend yield have negative impacts.
Pradhan (2003) found that dividend payment is more important as opposed to retained
earnings in Nepal. The results revealed the customary strong dividends effect and a very
weak retained earning effect indicating the attractiveness of dividends among Nepalese
investors. The findings suggest that Nepalese stock market has not started recognizing the
impact of retained earnings. Joshi (2012) has revealed that there is a positive relationship
between dividends and stock prices. He suggests that higher dividends raise stock prices,
while dividend cuts hurt prices. However, other studies done by Baskin (1989) and Black
(1973) show that there is negative and no effect between dividend and stock prices. Hence
A majority of earlier studies like mentioned above have shown contradictory findings.
Due to the inconsistency in the studies on dividend policy, it is therefore open for further
debate and conversation until a single point of agreement is reached. This paper attempts to
explain the effect of dividend payment on market price of share. This paper will investigate
these implications and attempt to ascertain the effect, status of dividend payment on market
price of share.
Research Question
Research Objective
The main objective of this research proposal is to know if there is any relation between
market price of stock and dividend and to know if distribution of dividend by public
Literature Review
Dividend Policy is a firm’s guiding principle and company’s option either to pay
dividends to its shareholders or to retain the profits and invest it back in the firm. Numerous
studies have already been carried out to know the impact of dividend policy on stock prices.
Dividend policy is an extensively researched topic in the area of finance, but at the same time
it is arguable and the center of attention of researchers to discover its new scope.
Sharif et al, (2015) studied 45 non-financial companies listed on the KSE-100 index that
have earned profits and paid dividends for a period of 2001 till 2012. This journal implies
that there is a negative significant relation between Return on Equity and Share Prices. It is
7
recommended that firms in the sample should regularly pay dividends as it will cause an
upward movement in the stock market prices, whereas profit retention by firms will result in a
Modigliani and Miller (1961) proposed the “Dividend Irrelevance Theory which
suggested that in a perfect world with no taxes or bankruptcy cost, the dividend policy is
irrelevant. They proposed that the dividend policy of a company has no effect on the stock
price of a company. Similarly, Black and Scholes (1973) also argue on the irrelevance of
dividend policy. Jakata and Nyamugure (2014) and Abrar-ul-haq, Akram, and Ullah (2015)
argued that dividend policy had no impact on stock price. Similarly, studies by Walter
(1956); Gordon (1959); Pani (2008); Akbar and Baig (2010); Masum (2014) and Jatmiko
Dhungel (2013) did a research about the impact dividend had on the share price and
found contradictory findings. He found that the majority of the share investors care for the
dividend per share of the company before purchasing shares from the secondary market
whereas all the investors cared for profitability of the institution. He concluded by saying
profitability plays a greater role in stock price rather than dividend per share.
Anjorin (2015) investigated the impact of dividend policy on the share price of 10
selected quoted firms in Nigeria stock exchange from 1997 to 2012. The data were analyzed
using the least square method. The results of their study shows that the payout ratio of the
companies under the study have a greater impact than their dividend payouts in influencing
the price of their shares in the market. Likewise, Bamidele et. al, (2018) studied the issue on
dividend policy on stock price of Nigeria Stock Exchange. Panel data set over the period of
2010-2014 was obtained from the audited annual reports and daily stock price of the selected
firms which were analyzed using pooled regression, random regression model, and fixed
8
regression model. The results of the study revealed that payout ratio has positive effect on
stock price, though not significant while earnings per share and size has a significant positive
relationship with stock price whereas leverage and market to book value has negative
Sharma (2011) also studied the determinants affecting the stock price and the results
revealed that earning per share, dividend per share, and book value per share has a significant
impact on the market price of share. Furthermore, results of the paper indicated that dividend
per share and earnings per share being the strongest determinants of market price .Thapa
(2019) explored the influencing factors of stock price in Nepal with reference to Nepalese
commercial banks listed on the Nepal Stock Exchange Ltd. over the period of 2008 to 2018
AD. The results revealed that earning per share (EPS), dividend per share (DPS), market
whims and rumors and company profiles have the significant positive association with share
price while interest rate (IR) and price to earnings ratio (PER) showed the significant inverse
association with share price. It means the stock market of Nepal is sensitive to the country's
financial system, dividend and short term interest rate has been one of the major determinants
of the stock market. So, it stated that dividend and short term interest rate could be the most
Black et al., (1974) argued that the best method for testing the effects of dividend policy
on stock prices is to test the effects of dividend yield on stock returns. After using the best
available methods like the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), they contend that there were
no effects dividend yield had on stock returns and change in dividend policy will have no
effect on the corporation's stock price. Puket et al., (1964) studied the relationship between
distribution of profits and stock price. By conducting their research, in addition to comparing
the effects of dividend and retained earnings, they reached the conclusion that dividend
9
payment does not cause an increase in the stock value of firms without growth and it causes a
Shoorvarzi and Nekoomaram (2010) studied the effect of dividend percent volatility of
the stock return of firms. The financial results of the research indicate that there is a
significant relationship between dividend percent volatility and the stock return of firms.
Gordon (1963) argues that paying more dividend could reduce risk, affect capital costs, and
reduce stock price. Some empirical evidence has demonstrated a negative relation between
dividend yield and/or dividend payout and share price volatility in advanced markets. Baskin
(1989) demonstrates that the return on each share has an inverse relation with the price
fluctuation.
Irandoost et al., (2013) analyzed 65 firms listed on Tehran Stock Exchange from 2007
to 2012. They used correlation analysis methods and multiple regressions in order to analyze
the data and test the hypotheses.The research results indicated that the dividend policy has a
significant effect on stock price volatility in a short time. However, the dividend policy does
not have a significant effect on stock price volatility in a long time. They state that the
Theoretical Framework
dividend on share price from textbook, reference books and practice in dividend policy and
its impact on market prices of stock. A brief description of different theories on dividend
Irrelevance Theory
10
Modigliani and miller (1961) have argued that firms dividend policy has no effect on its
value of assets i.e. if the rate of dividend declared by a company is less its retained earnings
will increase and so also the net worth and vice versa. This theory is based on a number of
e. Investors and managers have the same set of information regarding future opportunities.
Jensen and Meckling (1976) explains that the interests of managers and the interests
of shareholders are often contradictory, so it can cause a conflict between them. The situation
happens because managers try to put his personal interests that are not in accordance with the
investor interests as priority where the manager’s interests can augment the company’s
expenses that can reduce the company’s profit. In theory of free cash flow, it explains that the
distribution of dividend to investors becomes a means to reduce agency costs in free cash
flow. With the distribution of dividend to shareholders, it caused unavailability of free cash
flow for the company, so management is forced to seek external funding such as issuing new
shares to finance its investment. Indirectly, dividend distribution can oversee the company’s
cannot be alienated from its dividend policy and both are interlinked. An appropriate
dividend policy favorably affects the company's value. The key argument in support of the
investment or its internal risk of return (r) and its cost of capital or required rate (k). The firm
would have an optimum dividend policy, which will be determined by the relationship of r
and k.
This theory implies that some investors prefer a higher rate of dividends while others
prefer to retain the earnings and reinvest them in the company. Elton and Gruber (1970) show
that the investors' preferences towards the dividends are varied, also the dividend policy does
not only affect the share price in the stock market but also it includes the company investors.
which indicates that companies prefer to use internal equity in financing investments and
implement them as growth opportunities. This theory states that companies prefer internal
funding rather than external funding, secure debt rather than risky debt, and ordinary shares.
In this theory, companies that are experiencing high growth will make fewer dividend
payments compared to the company who has lower growth rate. (Myers & Majluf, 1984).
Gordon (1963) postulates that there is a relationship and an influence of the dividend
on the potential capital gains for the investors. It assumes that there is a stability in the ratio
of income on the investment, the required rate of return, the growth rate of the company,
ratios of dividends for the shareholders and relying on the owners' equity by the company
administration to finance its investments. In other words, this theory indicates that if the
company wants to maximize their share price, then they should adopt a high dividend ratio.
The Theory of the Effect of the Asymmetric Information of the Dividend on Investors
Miller and Modigliani (1961) indicates that investors consider any change in the
dividend policy as a sign for potential gains for the company; the higher dividend refers to a
positive expectation for the company to achieve future earnings and vice versa. This theory
maintains that changes in the dividend is taken as a signal for the future earnings and offers
information about the company earnings in the future that might affect negatively or
The Residual Theory of Dividends states that the dividend will be paid if the company
has residual net income after meeting the funding needed for a profitable investment for the
company (Gitman & Zutter, 2014). Based on this theory, the company’s policy to pay
dividends is the last priority if the company has residual funds. If the company revenue in
that year is not sufficient for the company’s funding, then the dividends will not be paid by
the company. In other words, this theory assumes that the company’s main funding comes
variables is proposed. In this study Stock price is taken as a dependent variable whereas
Hypothesis
Based on the literature review,research questions, and objective of the study following
Null hypothesis (H0): There is no significant relationship between dividend and stock price.
Alternative hypothesis (H1): There is a significant relationship between dividend and stock
price.
Methodology
of study. It comprises the theoretical analysis of the body of methods and principles
14
theoretical models, phases and quantitative or qualitative techniques. (Irny & Rose,2005).
This chapter gives a description of the research methodology used in achieving the objectives
of this study. The chapter presents the expected results, application and uses, unit of analysis,
validity and reliability, population & sample, sampling design, measures, administration of
Research Design
The research design of this study has been more descriptive as well as analytical using
dividend as an influencing factor of market price of stock. For this purpose secondary data
and information are obtained from different websites and primary data are obtained through
questionnaire surveys asked to shareholders. This study is carried out by using quantitative
analysis methods. Mainly secondary data has been used for analysis, so the research design of
them. Shareholders invest in shares for the purpose of getting a high return and maximizing
their wealth . In Nepal many investors lack enough knowledge about the share market and
people are investing haphazardly in the shares. There is no solid finding if the dividend
influences the stock price. This research will help to overcome this gap to some extent. This
research will help the investors and firms to understand the extent of impact that dividend
will have on stock price. It is aimed at providing important information to the investors and
The findings of this research proposal are beneficial for bankers and academic researchers.
Results are also beneficial for internal and external investors while taking decisions of
investment in respective capital markets. The research might be helpful for the managers of
commercial banks in order to concentrate on the factors which actually determine the
financing policy of banks rather than just focusing on dividend policy. This study will also
help management and policy makers in making a suitable dividend policy which can benefit
Unit of Analysis
This study focuses on fluctuation of stock prices of the companies listed on Nepal
Stock Exchange as in Nepal there exists only one stock exchange namely Nepal Stock
Exchange (NEPSE). Also we have studied the share preferences of the shareholders to
understand what motivates a shareholder to invest in particular shares which help us to know
what fluctuates the share price. So, the unit of analysis here will be individuals owning equity
Validity is one of the main concerns with research. "Any research can be affected by different
kinds of factors which, while extraneous to the concerns of the research, can invalidate the
findings" (Seliger & Shohamy, 1989).
The reason why the questionnaire is chosen is because it “can be custom designed to meet the
objectives of almost any type of research project” (McNabb, 2002). A questionnaire can be
used to gather information among a large number of respondents or from small groups of
samples, so this instrument is suitable for the research.
Further, the data that is to be used in this research will be collected from official sources that
is Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) and respective websites of the mentioned banks.
Further, the data analysis method proposed is already a validated measure which will be done
through SPSS.
16
Also an F-test is any statistical test in which the test statistic has an F-distribution under the
null hypothesis. It will be used when comparing statistical models that have been fitted to a
data set, in order to identify the model that best fits the population from which the data were
sampled.
Variables
The financial indicators and variables used in this study are defined as follows:
Market price per share is the closing price of the stock on which the stock has been traded in
Nepal Stock Exchange Ltd. during study periods. Market price per share is the dependent
Dividend per share is the part of earnings distributed to the common shareholders holding
one share. In other words, dividend per share is the net earnings distributed to common
The dividend payout ratio measures the percentage of net income that is distributed to
shareholders in the form of dividends during the year. In other words, this ratio shows the
portion of profits the company decides to keep to fund operations and the portion of profits
The population of this study includes Commercial Bank, Development Bank, Finance
Processing Company, Mutual Fund, Hotels and Trading Sector that are listed on NEPSE as
well as shareholders who are actively involved in buying and sharing stock in the secondary
market.
Sampling Design
The sample will consist of 5 companies each from Commercial Bank, Development
Bank, Finance Company, Micro Development Bank, Insurance Company, Hydro Power,
Manufacturing & Processing Company, Mutual Fund, 3 companies from Hotels and 2
companies from the Trading Sector. The data collected from the sample consist of secondary
data retrieved from the annual report from their respective websites.
Along with this, primary data will be based on questionnaires administered to 200
individuals owning equity shares. Convenient sampling method is used to select samples in
this study since it is not reasonable to study all of them since all these companies have no
practice of dividend culture. So, this study concentrates only on 45 companies and their
trends of dividend and stock price fluctuation from 2014/15 to 2018/19 as stated in Table 1.
Measures
measurement used to assign events or objects into discrete categories. To perform statistical
analysis of data, it is important to first understand variables and what should be measured
18
using these variables. Nominal scale possesses only the description characteristic which
Research Procedure
The research procedure includes administration of the questionnaire, data processing and
The questionnaires are asked to different investors who are actively invested in the share
market. Total of 10 questions are asked to the investors to know about their buying behaviour
and what motivates them to invest in a particular stock. Demographic questions will not be
asked as it is not helpful for our research. Only straight forward and on to the point questions
We have used nominal scale as it is easy to generate responses using close ended
questions and a lot of responses can be collected in a short period of time. We will be asking
questions in Nepali to those who have difficulty answering in English and those who want to
We will be distributing the questionnaires to around 200 investors as we need at least 100
responses to generalize the finding. The completed questionnaire will be collected on the
same day it was distributed as the questionnaire includes 10 questions which could be filled
Data Processing
19
After collecting the information from the investors each answer collected from the
given questionnaire will be analysed. The responses of each individual respondent will be
recorded into IBM SPSS 21 for Windows statistical software. Then regression analysis will
be done which will help us to know about the relation that exists between dividend and share
price. Here we will find linear regression in SPSS software where the dependent variable is
stock price and independent variable is dividend. We will be selecting the confidence interval
of 95% with model fit. The process of data is very important to find out accurate findings of
the research.
Data Analysis
The analysis of data has been done according to the pattern of data available. Firstly, the
collected data are presented in proper forms, grouped in various tables and charts according
to their nature. Then statistical tools and financial tools will be applied. Financial tools and
simple regression analysis, multiple regression analysis and Hypothetical tests will mainly be
the tools of analysis. The relationship between different variables related to study topics
Financial Tools
The financial indicator for share price volatility and main measurement of dividend
policy is calculated. The various financial tools that will be used in the research to understand
Dividend yield
20
Statistical Tools:
Standard deviation
The standard deviation shows the absolute dispersion which measures scatteredness of the
data of figures in a series about an average. The greater amount of dispersion reflects the high
Standard Deviation (σ ) =
After regression analysis is done we will be analysing if there exists the relation and
come to the findings of the research done as it acts as statistical evidence. The result will
Limitations
This research proposal focuses only on one independent variable ‘dividend’ that can
impact the market share price. Many other independent variables like return on earnings
(ROE), interest rate, price/ earning ratio are not considered. There are qualitative
characteristics as well which can influence the stock price of the firm such as the political
Similarly, quantitative factors like company size, age, goodwill, market to book value,
CEO tenure, CEO duality among others can influence the share price apart from the dividend.
In the future, a study could be carried to determine their combined effect and their
21
relationship with the share price. Also, we have selected 200 shareholders through
convenience sampling so samples could have sampling error and may have selection bias.
References
Bamidele, M. (2018). The Effect of Dividend Policy on Stock Price in Nigeria. Danubius
Black, F., & Scholes, M. S. (1976). The Dividend Puzzle. The Journal of Portfolio
Management, 2, 5-8.
Black, F., & Scholes, M. S. (1974). The Effects of Dividend Yield and Dividend Policy on
Chhetri, G.R. (2008). Dividend and Stock Prices: A Case of Nepal. An unpublished M.Phil.
Elton, E.J. & Gruber, M.J. (1970). Marginal Stockholders Tax Effect and the Clientele
Friend. I., & Puckett, M. (1964). Dividend and Stock Prices. American Economic Review, 54,
656-682.
Gitman, L. J., & Zutter, C. J. (2015). Managerial Finance, ninth edition. The Dryden Press,
Gordon, M.J. (1963). Optimal investment and financing policy. The Journal of Finance,
18(2), 264-272.
Irandoost, R., Hassanzadeh, R., and Salteh, H. (2013). The effect of dividend policy on stock
price volatility and investment decisions. European Online Journal of Natural and
Irwin friend & Marshall pocket (1964). Dividend policy and stock prices, The American
Economic Review
Irny, S.I. & Rose, A.A. (2005). Designing a Strategic Information Systems Planning
Jensen, M., & Meckling, W. (1976). Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency
Joshi, Rabindra (2012). Effects of Dividends on Stock Prices in Nepal . Nrb.org.np, 24-2.
Manandhar, K. D. (1998). A Study of Dividend Policy and Value of the Firm in the Small
Masum, A.A. (2014). Dividend Policy and Its Impact on Stock Price–A Study on
Economics
Miller, M.H. & Modigliani, F. (1961). Dividend policy, growth, and the valuation of shares.
Myers, S. (1984). The Capital Structure Puzzle. The Journal of Finance,39, 28-30.
Pradhan, R. S. (2003). Effects of Dividend on Common Stock Prices: The Nepalese evidence.
Selinger, H. W., & Shohamy, E. (1989). Second Language Research Methods. Oxford
Oxford
University Press
Silver, C. (2020, May 18). How and Why Do Companies Pay Dividends? Retrieved May 25,
Tahir, S., Ullah, M & Mahmood, S. (2015). Banks Dividend Policy and Investment Decision
Thapa, K. (2019). Influencing Factors of Stock Price in Nepal. NCC Journal, 4 (1), 113-120
Walter, J. E. (1963). Dividend Policy: Its influence on the value of the enterprise. Journal of
Finance,18,(2),280-291.
Appendix
Questionnaire
A. Less than 5
B. 5 to 10 companies
C. 10-15 companies
D. 15-20 companies
E. More than 20
A. Primary market
B. Secondary market
C. Both
4. What do you consider the most before investing in the particular stock ?
D. Dividend distributed
C. Board of directors
D. Risk factors
6. What is your perception on factors influencing the investment decision in the secondary
market?
B. Advice of brokers
F. Market sentiments
A. Dividend
B. Capital gains
C. Bonus shares
D. Rights shares
E. Tax benefits
F. Less risk
G. Liquidity
A. Future security
B. Expected return
C. Liquidity
D. Capital gain
E. Others
26
A. Book value
B. Market value
C. High-low price
F. Market capitalization
A. Dividend purpose
B. Capital gain
C. Others
Table 1
Sample Companies
Sector Company
Commercial Banks NMB Bank Limited
Siddhartha Bank Limited
Nepal Credit & Commerce Bank Limited
Kumari Bank Limited
Laxmi Bank Limited
Development Bank Miteri Development Bank Limited
Garima Bikas Bank Limited
Jyoti Bikash Bank Limited
Karnali Development Bank Limited
Gandaki Bikas Bank Limited
Finance Nepal Finance Limited
Best Finance Company Limited
Lalitpur Finance Limited
27