2020 06 24 NYS Decarbonization Pathways Report PDF

Pathways to Deep
Decarbonization in New
York State
June 24, 2020

Pathways to Deep
Decarbonization in New
York State
June 24, 2020
© 2020 Copyright. All Rights Reserved.

Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc.
44 Montgomery Street, Suite 1500
San Francisco, CA 94104
415.391.5100
www.ethree.com
Table of Contents
1 Background ............................................................................................ 1
2 Progress in New York State ................................................................. 5
3 Decarbonization Pathways Analysis .................................................. 8
3.1 Analysis Overview ................................................................................ 8
3.2 Model Framework ................................................................................. 8
3.3 Scenario Development ...................................................................... 10
3.4 Key Results and Takeaways ............................................................ 14
4 Sectoral Findings..................................................................................20
4.1 Transportation...................................................................................... 21
4.2 Buildings ............................................................................................... 23

4.3 Industry ................................................................................................. 27
4.4 Electricity Generation ......................................................................... 29

4.4.1 Electricity Demands ........................................................... 29
4.4.2 Peak Demands and Load Flexibility ............................... 30

4.4.3 Resource Portfolios ............................................................ 32
4.4.4 Transmission ....................................................................... 37

4.4.5 Firm Capacity ...................................................................... 37
4.5 Non-Combustion Sources ................................................................. 39

4.6 Negative Emissions ............................................................................ 40
4.7 Low-Carbon Fuels .............................................................................. 42
5 Conclusions ..........................................................................................44
6 Areas for Future Research ................................................................. 46
Background
1 Background
As the global average temperature continues to climb to the highest levels in

modern history, there is scientific consensus that climate change is threatening
our social and economic institutions. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC), whose Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was written by
more than 830 lead authors and 2,000 expert reviewers, has found that global
temperature must not increase by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above
preindustrial levels in order to avert the increasingly damaging, irreversible effects
of a changing climate. AR5 also finds that significant climate action is needed
globally over the next decade in order to reach net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions by mid-century.
© 2020 Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. Page |1|

Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in New York State
Figure 1. IPCC Analysis of Pathways to Limit Global Average Temperature Increase to 1.5
degrees Celsius1
In response to the latest climate science, New York State passed the Climate
Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) in the 2019 legislative session.
Included in the CLCPA are the most aggressive climate targets signed into law in
the United States: 40% GHG reductions below 1990 levels by 2030, and carbon
neutrality by 2050. The midcentury goal will be accomplished by reducing GHG
emissions by at least 85% below 1990 levels with in-state carbon sequestration
opportunities meeting or exceeding remaining emissions, resulting in net-zero
statewide GHG emissions.
1
IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5oC
Page |2|
Background
The CLCPA also includes specific targets to decarbonize the State’s electricity
sector, such as:
6 gigawatts (GW) of distributed solar by 2025
70% renewable electricity by 2030
9 GW offshore wind (OSW) by 2035
100% zero-emissions electricity by 2040
In order to better understand how the State might meet its ambitious targets, the
New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) had
engaged Energy and Environmental Economics (E3) to conduct a strategic analysis
of New York’s decarbonization opportunities. For this project, our analysis
evaluated the emissions impact of New York’s recent policies and explored
additional measures that would be needed to reach the State’s 2030 and 2050
targets. Results from our initial analysis, as well as our assumptions,
methodology, and findings, are described in detail in this report.
Although this analysis captures economy-wide GHG emissions and mitigation

opportunities, its analytic focus is on the electricity, transportation, buildings, and
industrial sectors. In addition to future refinements in these sectors, additional
analytic work will be needed to improve characterization of non-combustion
sources and associated mitigation opportunities.
The CLCPA requires additional reporting of emissions associated with “extraction

and transmission of fossil fuels imported into the state,” as well as the adoption
of a 20-year global warming potential, a metric that emphasizes the near-term
climate impacts of short-lived climate pollutants such as methane. The calculation
of a 1990 baseline that includes these new requirements is currently underway.

This analysis uses available 1990 data from prior inventory reports and adopts the
GHG accounting framework from those prior reports. Future decarbonization
pathways analysis will align statewide GHG emissions accounting with these
CLCPA provisions and updated baseline.
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Progress in New York State
2 Progress in New York State
New York State tracks its historical GHG emissions through the New York State
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory, which currently adheres to IPCC guidelines
and creates a baseline against which future progress can be measured. The
Inventory provides a detailed accounting of emissions beginning in 1990 until
the most recent data year (currently 2016) and encompasses two overarching
categories of emissions sources:
Energy combustion (including fossil fuel combustion, natural gas systems,

and municipal waste combustion)
Non-combustion greenhouse gases, including industrial processes and

product use, agriculture, and waste
As shown in Figure 2, the transportation sector is the State’s largest source of

GHG emissions, responsible for 36% of the total (Figure 2). The second-largest
source, onsite combustion from residential, commercial, and industrial energy
use, together contribute 30%. The next-largest category, non-energy emissions
from waste, agriculture, and industrial processes and product use (15%), is
equivalent to emissions from the electricity sector (15%), accounting for net-
imports of electricity.

Figure 2. 2016 New York State GHG Emissions by Sector
Note: The combined contribution from all waste-related activities is approximately 8%.
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Progress in New York State
New York has made significant progress in reducing GHG emissions (Figure 3).
Since 1990, GHG emissions have fallen by 13%, and most of New York’s GHG
reductions have come from the electricity sector, which have decreased by more
than 50% below 1990 levels. Reductions in emissions from onsite combustion in
residential, commercial, and industrial buildings constitute the next-largest
segment. While this progress is both substantial and important, significantly more
action is needed to reach the reductions set out in the CLCPA – particularly in the
transportation sector, where emissions have risen 25% from 1990 levels, and
aviation has become an increasing share of transportation emissions.
Figure 3. NYS GHG Emissions by Sector: 1990, 2005, 2016, and CLCPA Emissions Targets:
2030 and 2050

3 Decarbonization Pathways
Analysis
3.1 Analysis Overview
Meeting the CLCPA’s ambitious targets requires a comprehensive analysis of GHG

reduction measures across all sectors of New York’s economy. Our analysis
evaluated the impacts of existing policies as of December 2018 as well as
portfolios of additional measures needed to meet CLCPA targets. This analysis
provides an initial foundation for the State to assess decarbonization options,
identify areas for additional analysis, and consider concrete next steps towards
its 2030 and 2050 targets.
As part of this work, we also performed an extensive literature review on deep

decarbonization and highly renewable energy systems and incorporated insights
from discussions with leading subject matter experts.2
3.2 Model Framework
Our analysis uses E3’s PATHWAYS model to create strategically designed

scenarios for how the State can reach its 2030 and 2050 GHG goals. The model is
built using “bottom-up” data for all emissions produced and energy consumed
2
See Appendix B: Literature Review of Economy-Wide Deep Decarbonization and Highly Renewable Energy Systems
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Decarbonization Pathways Analysis
within the State. Scenarios are designed to test “what-if” questions to compare
long-term decarbonization options and develop realistic and concrete GHG
reduction pathways.
PATHWAYS also captures interactions between demand- and supply-side

variables, with constraints and assumptions informed by existing analyses of
resource availability, technology performance, and cost.
For key sectors like buildings and transportation, PATHWAYS uses a bottom-up
stock rollover approach based on data from the EIA National Energy Modeling
System (NEMS) that is validated through benchmarking to historical New York
“top-down” energy consumption. Our modeling approach also incorporates
detailed electricity sector representation using E3’s RESOLVE model. RESOLVE is
used to develop least-cost electricity generation portfolios that achieve New
York’s policy goals, including 100% zero-emission electricity, while maintaining
reliability.
Finally, we calculate potential bioenergy supply from a variety of sustainably

sourced feedstocks as well as emissions reduction potential for a variety of
negative emissions technologies, including biorefining with carbon capture and
storage (CCS) and direct air capture (DAC) of CO2. Figure 4 illustrates the
relationship between the different modules of the analysis.

Figure 4. E3 Modeling Framework
3.3 Scenario Development
For this analysis, E3 developed three distinct scenarios: a reference case

reflecting existing state policies, and two initial pathways for achieving the
CLCPA’s GHG emissions goals and electric sector targets (e.g., 70% renewable
electricity by 2030 and 100% zero-emissions electricity by 2040, as well as
resource sub-targets). Both pathways rely on existing technology and project
performance improvements consistent with deployments over the next 30 years.
Reference Case: The reference scenario includes existing sector-specific

policies and targets adopted before the enactment of the CLCPA,
including the Clean Energy Standard, 2025 and 2030 building energy
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efficiency targets, and the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) MOU and related
vehicle emission standards. This scenario serves as a counterfactual for
comparison in future years.
“High Technology Availability” Pathway. This pathway relies on a diverse

portfolio of GHG mitigation options, including high levels of efficiency and
end-use electrification, with assets being retired at the end of useful
lifetimes. This pathway includes contributions from measures that are
not yet widely commercialized, such as advanced biofuels, carbon
capture and storage (CCS), and bioenergy with carbon capture and
storage (BECCS). It also relies on high levels of emissions reduction from
non-energy sources, such as landfills and refrigerants, and high carbon
sequestration from natural and working lands (NWL) within the State.
“Limited Non-Energy” Pathway. This pathway accelerates electrification

and ramp-up of new equipment sales, along with early retirements of
older and less-efficient fossil vehicles and building systems. This pathway
also assumes advanced biofuels displace a larger share of fossil fuel,
which together with the acceleration of new equipment sales, results in
a larger reduction in energy sector emissions in case non-energy
reductions and NWL sinks are limited.
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Table 1. Key scenario assumptions
Sector Strategy Expressed as Reference High Technology Limited Non-Energy

Availability
Buildings Building Shell Efficient shell sales 75% by 2030 85% by 2030, Same as HTA
Efficiency share 100% by 2045
Building Electric heat pump 6% by 2025 50% by 2030, 70% by 2030,
Electrification sales share 95% by 2050, 100% by 2045*
Appliance Efficiency Efficient appliance 100% by 2025 90% by 2023, Same as HTA
(non-HVAC) sales share 100% by 2025
Industry Efficiency Efficiency increase 10% by 2030, 10% by 2030, Same as HTA
relative to baseline 20% by 2050 45% by 2045
projection
Fuel Switching Share of natural None 60% by 2045 Same as HTA
gas and LPG use
electrified
Transportation Corporate Average LDV fuel economy Extended 2021-2026 Same as Reference Same as Reference
Fuel Economy
(CAFE) Standards
Smart Growth LDV VMT None 3% by 2030, Same as HTA
reduction relative 9% by 2050
to Reference
Aviation Efficiency Efficiency increase None 10% by 2030, Same as HTA
relative to 40% by 2050
Reference
Vehicle ZEV sales share LDA: 25% by 2025; LDV: 60% by 2030, LDV: 70% by 2030,
Electrification LDT: 8% by 2025; 100% by 2040; 100% by 2035;
MDV/Bus: 2% by 2050 Bus: 60% by 2030, Bus: 70% by 2030,
100% by 2040; 100% by 2035;
MDV/HDV: 35% MDV/HDV: 50% by
by 2030; 95% by 2030; 95% by 2040*
2040
Zero Emissions Bioenergy Feedstocks supply Reference Projection In-state Same as HTA
Fuels Availability (~70 TBtu) feedstocks (~150-
200 TBtu)
Biofuels Blend** Share of 7% aggregate ethanol 100% renewable 100% renewable gas
conventional fuel blend for gasoline, gas in CNG in CNG vehicles by
use replaced with 8.4% biodiesel blend vehicles by 2030, 2030,
biofuels for heating oil in 40% renewable 40% renewable
Downstate model diesel by 2030, diesel by 2030,
segment by 2034 to ~100% renewable 100% renewable
account for areas with diesel by 2050, diesel by 2050,
biodiesel mandates 8% renewable gas 100% renewable
in pipeline by gasoline by 2050,
2050 68% renewable jet
kerosene by 2050,
18% renewable gas
in pipeline by 2050
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Clean Electricity Clean Electricity Share of 50% renewable by 2030 70% renewable by Same as HTA
Generation renewable/zero- 2030,
emission 100% zero-
generation emission by 2040
Technology-specific Offshore wind 2.4 GW by 2030 9 GW by 2035 Same as HTA
targets capacity
Behind-the-meter 3 GW by 2023 6 GW by 2025 Same as HTA
solar PV
Energy storage 3 GW by 2030 3 GW by 2030 Same as HTA
Non- Non-Combustion Percent reduction 38% increase by 2030, 9% reduction by -15% increase by
Combustion Emission from 1990 levels 52% increase by 2050 2030, 2030,
Reductions**** 45% reduction by 35% reduction by
2050 2050
Natural & NWL MMT CO2 22.5 MMT CO2e 32.5 MMT CO2e 25.5 MMT CO2e
Working Lands Sequestration***** sequestered in
2050
CCSU Carbon Capture & MMT CO2 None Industry CCS: 2 BECCS: 4 MMT***
Sequestration/Use captured and MMT,
sequestered in BECCS: 4 MMT***
2050
Acronyms and Abbreviations used in Table 1

LPG: Liquid petroleum gas (i.e., propane)
LDV: Light-duty vehicle; includes subcategories LDA (Light-duty auto) and LDT (Light-duty truck)
MDV/HDV: Medium-duty vehicle/Heavy-duty vehicle
CNG: Compressed natural gas
VMT: Vehicle miles traveled
TBtu: Trillion BTU (British Thermal Unit)
* Annually retire up to 5% of existing stock early, beginning in 2040 and continuing through 2050 as needed
** In decarbonization scenarios (high technology availability and limited non-energy), renewable diesel blend includes all demand
sectors (e.g., transportation, buildings, and industry) and includes biodiesel share in downstate buildings included in the reference
scenario; renewable gasoline blend in decarbonization scenarios is an advanced biofuel derived from available in-state feedstocks and
displaces ethanol as well a fossil gasoline.
*** BECCS used only for bio-refining
**** Non-combustion emissions include waste, agriculture, industrial process and product use source categories. Major sources of
emissions in these categories include methane emissions from landfills and HFC emissions from refrigerants.
***** NWL sequestration projections derived from estimate of forest sequestration in report prepared for NYSERDA by E&S
Environmental Chemistry. Sources and Sinks of Major Greenhouse Gases Associated with New York State’s Natural and Working Lands:
Forests, Farms, and Wetlands. (2020). Projections were developed with input by subject matter experts based on historical data.

3.4 Key Results and Takeaways
E3’s analysis finds that achieving deep decarbonization with existing

technologies is feasible by mid-century. Further, this finding is consistent with all
deep decarbonization studies E3 reviewed. Some technologies that have only
been demonstrated in a limited number of applications will require further
development to achieve widespread adoption.
Both the High Technology Availability and Limited Non-Energy Pathways reach
CLCPA’s long-term goal: carbon neutrality, with a reduction in emissions of at
least 85%, by 2050. As shown in Figure 5, the High Technology Availability
Pathway meets the 85% GHG reduction target and achieves carbon neutrality
through natural and working lands and other negative emissions technologies.
The Limited Non-Energy Pathway achieves greater GHG emissions reductions and
relies less on negative emissions.
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Figure 5. GHG Emissions by Scenario and Year
There is no single pathway to a decarbonized economy. A review of the

literature, including E3’s own past studies, shows that choices exist as to the
extent and role of:
Electrification of vehicles and household appliances
Low-carbon fuels
Scale of renewable electricity
Carbon capture and sequestration
Negative emissions technologies
Any carbon-neutral future will require an unprecedented transformation and

major investments in new infrastructure across all sectors. The scope and scale
of emissions reductions to be achieved in New York across the “four pillars of
decarbonization” – energy efficiency and conservation, decarbonizing electricity

supply, switching to low-carbon fuels (including electricity), and negative

emissions – in both modeled pathways is shown in Figure 6.
Figure 6. Four Pillars of Deep Decarbonization
A 30-year transition to carbon neutrality requires immediate and sustained

action. Consumer decision-making is especially important in passenger vehicle
turnover and household energy use. As shown in Figure 7, both pathways require
rapid growth of electric vehicles and efficient electric household devices over the
next decade.
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Figure 7. Timeline of Action in New York Carbon Neutral Pathways
Continued research, development and demonstration will be necessary to advance

a full portfolio of options, including direct air capture of CO2, advanced biofuels,
and long-duration energy storage.
Existing New York clean energy policies are foundational to meeting a 40% GHG
reduction by 2030. Figure 8 shows emissions reductions by measure in the High
Technology Availability Pathway and highlights the impact of key actions such as
New York’s 2025 and 2030 energy efficiency and heat pump commitments, the ZEV
MOU and related vehicle emission standards, and 50% Clean Energy Standard.
Federal policies such as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards will
also contribute to meeting New York’s 2030 target provided that they are not
overturned.

Figure 8. Emissions Reductions by Measure in the High Technology Availability Pathway
The CLCPA’s electric sector targets of increasing renewable power and reaching
100% zero-emissions electricity will achieve substantial reductions in direct
emissions and underpin a sustainable transition to electricity in vehicles and
buildings. But additional decarbonization measures will be needed to reach New
York’s 2030 emissions goal:
Additional building and transportation end-use electrification
GHG reduction from non-combustion emissions sources such as landfills,

agricultural sources, and refrigerants
Advanced bioenergy in buildings and transportation
Looking further out to New York’s 2050 target, a 100% zero-emissions electricity
system is assumed to be the backbone of a decarbonized economy as fossil-fueled
end-uses electrify in transportation, buildings, and industry. Carbon capture at
large stationary sources, such as electric generators and industrial facilities could
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play a limited, but important, role in both pathways. Moreover, negative

emissions strategies, both from natural and working lands and negative emissions
technologies, allow New York State to reach full carbon neutrality by 2050.
The two pathways vary in the pace and extent of energy system decarbonization,
extent of reduction from non-combustion emissions sources, and sequestration
potential from natural and working lands (Figure 9). Additional reductions are
achieved through in-state biorefining with CCS (BECCS). While carbon neutrality
can be achieved without negative emissions technologies such as direct air
capture (DAC), they may be required if adoption of other technologies is limited
or delayed.
Figure 9. Remaining Emissions by Category and Pathway

4 Sectoral Findings
Meeting CLCPA targets requires substantial GHG emissions reductions across all
sectors of New York’s economy, as shown in Figure 10. The largest reductions are
needed in the electricity, transportation, buildings, and industry sectors. This
section presents specific sector-by-sector findings from E3’s analysis.
Figure 10. New York State Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector
Energy efficiency, one of the “four pillars” of decarbonization, is achieved through

conservation and conventional efficiency as well as through switching from fossil
devices to more efficient electric technologies. Energy efficiency improvements
across New York State’s entire energy economy, including efficiency gains
associated with electrifying building and transportation end uses, results in an
55% reduction in final energy demand by 2050 (relative to 2016 levels).
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Sectoral Findings
Figure 11. Final Energy Demand by Fuel, High Technology Availability Pathway
4.1 Transportation
Using the existing inventory methodology, transportation is currently New York’s

largest source of GHG emissions. Meeting CLCPA goals likely requires that
transportation switch to electric technologies, such as electric passenger vehicles
and buses. Beyond the obvious GHG benefits of reduced fossil fuel use, the
transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric drive trains
presents a tremendous efficiency benefit in terms of miles traveled per unit of
energy consumed.
Our analysis assumes a transition to a mix of plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and
hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, depending on the vehicle class and application. These
electric vehicles add to the State’s electricity demand, but also can enhance

electric system reliability through temporally flexible vehicle charging patterns

and utilization of vehicle batteries for grid balancing. The relative share of
hydrogen fuel cell relative to battery electric vehicles over time may be affected
by a number of factors, including the cost outlook for hydrogen production from
zero-emission generation resources over time and the potential for regional or
national initiatives to convert the long-haul fleet and develop hydrogen fueling
infrastructure.
In addition to electrification, we include substantial reductions in vehicle miles

traveled (VMT) for passenger vehicles, relative to a baseline projection of
increasing VMT, which slows the rate and magnitude of the increase in VMT over
time. These reductions would be realized through increased smart growth
development, transit, and other transportation-related demand management
measures. Some current trends (e.g., urbanization) may already be counteracting
some growth in VMT, but more work is needed to ensure that New Yorkers have
access to a wide variety of options to efficiently meet their mobility needs.
Because some medium- and heavy-duty vehicles will be more difficult to electrify,
we assume drop-in renewable fuels (such as bioenergy or synthesized fuels) can
be used to reduce emissions. For example, advanced renewable diesel plays a key
role in decarbonizing freight transportation emissions. Non-road transportation,
such as marine and aviation, are decarbonized through a combination of
renewable fuels and efficiency.
As seen in Table 2 and Figure 12, efficiency, electrification, and low-carbon fuel
use decrease both energy use and GHG emissions in the transportation sector
through 2030 and 2050. Note the energy and emissions reductions displayed in
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Sectoral Findings
Table 2 are a result of the scenario design process in this study and do not
represent sectoral targets.
Table 2. Transportation Energy and Emissions Reductions Achieved in Decarbonization
Pathways Scenarios
Metric 2030** 2050**

Percent GHG emissions reduction* 31%-33% 86%-97%
Percent reduction in final energy demand* 23%-24% 63%-67%
*Relative to 2016
**Range of values includes both the Decarbonization Pathways described in this report
Figure 12. Transportation Final Energy Demand, High Technology Availability Pathway
4.2 Buildings
Buildings must transition from using several fuels today (i.e., natural gas, oil,
electricity) to being mostly electric in a carbon neutral future. Simultaneously,

aggressive energy efficiency must be pursued across multiple fronts: more

efficient building shells and insulation, behavioral conservation, and efficient
appliances. Although a widespread shift to electrification in buildings is a core
component of decarbonization, other low carbon fuels such as renewable gas,
renewable diesel (including biodiesel) and hydrogen may also play important
roles, depending on the availability of sustainably-sourced bioenergy resources
and the outlook for cost-effective hydrogen production from zero-emission
generation resources.
As seen in Table 3 and Figure 13, efficiency, electrification, and low-carbon fuel
use decrease both energy use and GHG emissions in the buildings sector through
2030 and 2050. Note the energy and emissions reductions displayed in Table 3
are a result of the scenario design process in this study and do not represent
sectoral targets.
Table 3. Buildings Energy and Emissions Reductions Achieved in Decarbonization
Pathways Scenarios
Metric 2030** 2050**

Percent GHG emissions reduction* 31%-39% 85%-93%
Percent reduction in final energy demand* 26%-31% 55%-59%
*Relative to 2016
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Sectoral Findings
Figure 13. Building Final Energy Demand, High Technology Availability Pathway
The shift to electrification is most pronounced in space and water heating, which
in turn will lead to the emergence of a “winter peaking system” in New York,
where electricity demands are highest in the winter (today’s system demand is
highest in the summer due to air conditioning loads). The magnitude of the new
winter peak depends on the types of appliances that are sold and the pace of
adoption, but can be mitigated by investment in ground-source heat pumps;
investment in R&D to increase cold-weather performance of cold-climate air-
source heat pumps; and onsite combustion backup systems using fossil fuel,
bioenergy, or synthesized fuel such as hydrogen. Our study assumes that a
balanced portfolio of electric space heating systems – including cold climate air-
source heat pumps with and without onsite combustion backup, as well as
ground-source heat pumps – would be deployed.

Much like electric vehicles, the potential for building appliances to operate
flexibly can contribute to electric system reliability. Water heaters and
refrigerators have a proven ability to shift load by a few hours, thus allowing the
electric system to operate more efficiently and cost-effectively. Heating systems
may be able to shift load, though there are open questions about how much, how
long, and at what temperatures. Advanced distributed energy storage
technologies may also contribute to system flexibility.
Both pathways described in this report consist of an approach that includes a mix
of electric heat pumps, significant investment in efficient insulation and building
shells, and flexible loads. Draft results from ongoing work for NYSERDA’s Carbon
Neutral Buildings Roadmap show that there would be significant additional
impacts from transitioning to electric space heating without this mix of measures.
For example, New York’s winter peak could be substantially higher in 2050
without progress in efficiency, building shell improvements, and flexible loads,
presenting additional challenges to the development of a 100% zero-emissions
electricity portfolio.
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Sectoral Findings
Figure 14. Peak Load Implications of Heat Pump Transition: High Technology Availability
Pathway System Peak Load (left) and 2050 Peak Load Under Different Space Heating
Configurations (right)
We note, as well, that without regulation and innovation in refrigerant

management and low-GWP refrigerants, increased reliance on heat pumps could
result in a substantial increase of emissions of chemicals used in refrigerants, such
as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Additional analysis is needed to fully quantify this
potential increase in emissions and characterize HFC mitigation opportunities in
detail. Driving a shift to low GWP refrigerants will provide the highest GHG
reduction benefit in the large-scale adoption of heat pumps.
4.3 Industry
Industrial energy use, though accounting for a relatively small share of New York
State’s current GHG emissions profile, becomes increasingly important as New

York approaches carbon neutrality.3 We assume most industrial combustion GHG

reductions occur as a result electrification and efficiency, with bioenergy and
hydrogen providing drop-in fuels where necessary and CCS being available to
reduce emissions from key point sources.
Through 2030, industrial sector GHG reduction is driven primarily by continued

investment in energy efficiency and some replacement of fossil fuels with low-
carbon, renewable fuels, allowing more time for innovation to meet the 2050
goals. For example, after 2030, electricity increasingly replaces fossil fuel
combustion as electrification of industrial applications, such as high-temperature
thermal processes, progresses over time. Note the energy and emissions
reductions displayed in Table 4 are a result of the scenario design process in this
study and do not represent sectoral targets.
Table 4 Industry Energy and Emissions Reductions Achieved in Decarbonization Pathways
Scenarios
Metric 2030** 2050**

Percent GHG emissions reduction* 6% 81%-82%
Percent reduction in final energy demand* 4% 39%-40%
*Relative to 2016
3 This section focuses on industrial emissions from energy combustion only; industrial process emissions are
characterized in the non-combustion section.
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Sectoral Findings
Figure 15. Industry Final Energy Demand, High Technology Availability Pathway
4.4 Electricity Generation
The challenge facing the electric sector in a carbon-neutral future is two-fold: (1)
meeting increased electricity demand due to electrification of vehicles and
buildings; and (2) reducing, and eventually eliminating, GHG emissions while
serving that demand.
4.4.1 ELECTRICITY DEMANDS
Our analysis shows that electricity demand in New York may increase by 65% or
80% relative to current load levels (Figure 16), which is consistent with the range
found in our literature review (20%-120% by 2050). This range depends
significantly on the scale and timing of electrification; whether there is a

significant role for bioenergy; and the potential for synthetic fuels, such as
hydrogen, that are produced from electrolysis.
Figure 16. Electricity Demand by Sector and Scenario
4.4.2 PEAK DEMANDS AND LOAD FLEXIBILITY
CLCPA requires 100% zero-emissions electricity by 2040. Correspondingly, the

State will both reduce, and eventually eliminate, direct emissions from electricity
generation and pursue GHG reductions in transportation, buildings, and industry,
where consumers and businesses can transition from fossil fuels to clean
electricity.
This transformation will change the timing and magnitude of consumers’

electricity demands and create a “winter peaking” system in New York, owing to
new demands from electric space heating, as described previously.
We find that the shift to a winter peak occurs around 2040 and is driven by the
timing of heat pump and electric vehicle adoption. Flexibility in electric vehicle
charging patterns and building loads can significantly reduce peak demands and
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Sectoral Findings
the need for new electric generating capacity. Flexible loads can serve a similar
role to battery storage, shifting demand to times of high renewables output.
Figure 17 illustrates this evolution of the system peak—and the impacts of electric
load flexibility--over time.
Figure 17. Annual summer and winter peak electricity demands (top) and average hourly
load (bottom)

Note: The chart above contains a 24-hour set of hourly loads for each month, representing
an approximate monthly average hourly load; as a result, the chart does not capture
seasonal peaks. The “flex down” area represents the portion of load that can be reduced
in that hour and shifted to other times of day.
4.4.3 RESOURCE PORTFOLIOS
New York State has access to diverse in-state renewable energy resources and
zero-emissions technology options, as well as access to adjoining states,
provinces, and regional transmission systems which offer additional options for
zero-emissions energy supply.
Our analysis explored the new resources required to reliably meet electricity
demand in buildings, transportation, and industry with 100% zero-emissions
electricity for the upstate and downstate regions of New York. The analysis
includes reliability constraints and models the reliability contributions of
intermittent and limited-duration resources by projecting the effective load
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Sectoral Findings
carrying capability (ELCC)4 of wind, solar, and battery storage resources as a

function of the penetration of those resources.
Our analysis finds that New York can reliably meet growing electricity loads with
100% zero-emissions electricity by relying on a diverse mix of resources,
including:
Onshore and offshore wind
Large-scale and distributed solar
In-state hydro and existing and new hydro imports from Quebec
Existing nuclear capacity
Existing and new combined cycles (CC) and combustion turbines (CT)
utilizing zero-emissions biogas
New natural gas-fired combined cycles with carbon capture and

sequestration (CC-CCS)
The projected least-cost resource portfolios to meet New York’s electricity targets
are shown in
4The effective load-carrying capability is the amount of “perfect capacity” that could be replaced or avoided with
wind, solar, or storage while providing equivalent system reliability. The ELCC curves in this analysis were developed
using E3’s reliability model, RECAP.

Figure 18 below. This generation chart illustrates the two-fold challenge facing
the State of (1) meeting rapidly increasing electricity demand while (2)
transforming the electricity generation mix into a highly renewable system
primarily powered by wind and solar resources. The contributions of renewable
resources are projected to increase beyond the 70% target after 2030, while
other zero-emissions generation resources will also play an important role in
balancing the portfolio and ensuring year-round reliability.
P a g e | 34 |
Sectoral Findings
Figure 18. Projected Installed Capacity (top) and Annual Electricity Generation (bottom)
The analysis projects substantial growth in solar and wind capacity in upstate New
York, as well as new offshore wind projects delivering power directly to load

centers in downstate New York, exceeding the 2035 target of 9 GW in subsequent

years. Significant in-state renewable development will require careful siting
considerations that should be explored in depth.
Advanced energy storage deployment will also play an important role in New
York’s future electricity system. Even after accounting for the declining effective
load carrying capability as storage penetration increases, battery storage
additions can help meet New York’s growing peak demands, and along with end-
use load flexibility, battery storage will also play a critical role in renewables
integration and intraday balancing needs.
Figure 19. In-State Resource Development in High Technology Availability Pathway
P a g e | 36 |
Sectoral Findings
4.4.4 TRANSMISSION
New investments in transmission will be needed to enable the delivery of 100%

zero-emission electricity, including:
Local transmission upgrades to integrate new renewable resources
Additional transmission to deliver renewable resources from other

regions, especially Quebec, into New York
Bulk transmission capacity from upstate New York to downstate load

centers
The State has already begun the process of adding bulk transmission capacity
through its selection of AC transmission projects,5 although additional
transmission may be needed to ensure that power can be delivered into New York
City and Long Island. The level of additional transfer capacity is subject to
substantial uncertainty and an important topic for future analysis.
4.4.5 FIRM CAPACITY
Firm capacity is the amount of energy available for power production which can
be guaranteed to be available at a given time. As the share of variable resources
like wind and solar grows substantially, firm capacity resources will be needed to
ensure year-round reliability, especially during periods of low renewables output.
5 The AC Transmission projects were selected by the NYISO Board in April 2019 to address transmission needs
identified by the New York Public Service Commission, as part of the Public Policy Transmission Planning Process:
https://www.nyiso.com/documents/20142/5990681/AC-Transmission-Public-Policy-Transmission-Plan-2019-
04-08.pdf.

Firm capacity allows the system to have adequate resources available during
prolonged periods of low renewable energy output. The State’s need for firm
resources would be most pronounced during winter periods of high demand for
electrified heating and transportation and lower wind and solar output, as shown
in Figure 20.
Figure 20. Electricity Demand and Wind + Solar Generation in 2050 in the High Technology
Availability Pathway
A number of studies suggest that complementing high penetrations of

intermittent renewables with firm, zero-emission resources – such as bioenergy,
hydrogen, carbon capture and sequestration, and nuclear generation – reduce
P a g e | 38 |
Sectoral Findings
total electric system costs under zero-emissions targets. Research has shown that
the magnitude of this cost reduction ranges from 10%-62%.6
4.5 Non-Combustion Sources
Deep decarbonization strategies often focus on fossil fuel combustion. But New
York State’s non-combustion GHG emissions – from sources that include landfills,
farms, industrial facilities, natural gas infrastructure, and refrigerants – are
projected to increase over time. Reducing these will be important to meeting
New York’s 2030 and 2050 goals.
To bend the emissions curve downward, significant reductions are needed across
non-combustion emissions sources. Mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants is
key, including focus areas of New York State’s methane reduction plan, such as
reducing emissions from landfills, natural gas infrastructure, and agriculture, and
switching to climate-friendly refrigerants (i.e., substitutes for ozone-depleting
substances, or ODS), as shown in Figure 21. Identification of technological
opportunities to reduce such emissions is beyond the scope of this report, but
will be the subject of further analysis.
6Sepulveda, N., J. Jenkins, F. de Sisternes, R. Lester. (2018) The Role of Firm Low-Carbon Electricity Resources in
Deep Decarbonization of Power Generation. Joule, 2(11), pp. 2403-2420. DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2018.08.006.
Jenkins, J., M. Luke, S. Thernstrom. (2018) Getting to Zero Carbon Emissions in the Electric Power Sector. Joule,
2(12), pp. 2498-2510. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2018.11.013.
E3. 2019. Resource Adequacy in the Pacific Northwest. https://www.ethree.com/wp-
content/uploads/2019/03/E3_Resource_Adequacy_in_the_Pacific-Northwest_March_2019.pdf

Figure 21. Non-Combustion GHG Emissions by Source and Scenario
4.6 Negative Emissions
“Negative emissions” refers to the removal of CO2 directly from the atmosphere
or from the emission stream of renewable biogenic feedstock combustion (where
the carbon emitted was first captured from the atmosphere in the photosynthesis
process, resulting in a net decrease in atmospheric carbon). Up to 15% of New
York’s carbon neutrality goal can be achieved through negative emissions, which
may be essential if there are portions of the economy (e.g., industry, air travel,
non-combustion emissions) that prove impracticable or uneconomic to fully
decarbonize. Negative emissions can come from natural and working lands (NWL)
through natural processes or from technologies that capture and sequester
biogenic or atmospheric CO2.
With nearly 20 million acres of forest, New York State’s natural and working lands
sink is projected to sequester between 23 to 33 MMT CO2e, depending on the
outlook for advances in forest regeneration and land management practices.7 The
7
See technical appendix section on natural and working lands (2.5.4) for more details.
P a g e | 40 |
Sectoral Findings
extent of the contributions from natural and working lands is subject to

substantial uncertainty and additional analysis is needed to improve the
characterization of emissions sources, emissions sinks, and carbon sequestration
opportunities.
Biorefining with CCS (BECCS) and direct air capture technologies can provide
additional negative emissions to offset remaining emissions in the energy and
non-combustion sectors. CO2 is a waste product of biofuel production and can be
captured and sequestered to produce negative emissions. Direct air capture
(DAC) of CO2 may prove to be an important “backstop” technology if other
measures do not perform as expected. However, DAC is unproven at scale, and
its cost outlook is highly uncertain.
Figure 22. Negative Emissions Contribution to GHG Targets in High Technology Availability
Pathway

4.7 Low-Carbon Fuels
Advanced low-carbon liquid and gaseous fuels are key to decarbonizing sectors
where electrification is challenging, such as freight transportation, aviation,
marine, and high-temperature industrial applications. Our fuels analysis includes
low-carbon advanced biofuels and hydrogen produced from electricity.
Bioenergy is used in New York today largely in the form of ethanol blended into
gasoline and wood combusted in buildings for heat, with smaller quantities of
biodiesel being used for vehicles and space heating. The transition to carbon
neutrality will require very strategic use of limited biomass and careful screening
of sustainable feedstocks to ensure that bioenergy is carbon neutral when
considering its net GHG impacts.
As illustrated in Figure 23, the pathways modeled in our analysis can achieve deep
decarbonization using available in-state biomass feedstocks that are assumed to
be converted to advanced renewable natural gas and renewable petroleum
products. We also assume that a small amount of wood consumption remains in
2050 to serve a variety of needs, including residential wood usage in the North
County.8
8 Both pathways retain approximately 16 TBtu of wood consumption statewide in 2050; Compare to 2016
residential wood usage in the North Country of about 3 TBtu.
P a g e | 42 |
Sectoral Findings
Figure 23. Low-Carbon Fuel Consumption by Type and Scenario

5 Conclusions
This report presents E3’s initial strategic analysis to inform New York’s future
decisions for meeting GHG goals under the CLCPA. Based on our detailed
assessment of pathways to deep decarbonization in New York State, we find the
following:
Deep decarbonization in New York is feasible using existing

technologies. This reinforces the conclusion of many other studies. All
needed technologies currently exist and can safely be assumed to realize
incremental improvements resulting from significant deployment. A high
level of innovation will make the transition easier, but the transition is
already technically feasible.
There are different pathways to a carbon neutral future. A 30-year

transition demands action now across all sectors of the State’s economy
but affords some optionality. All scenarios that achieve carbon neutrality
show significant progress across the “four pillars” of decarbonization:
energy efficiency and conservation, decarbonizing the electricity supply,
switching to low-carbon fuels, and negative emissions.
Continued research, development, and demonstration is key to

advancing a full portfolio of options. Some studies and scenarios rely on
technologies that have only been demonstrated in a limited number of
applications and require further progress before commercial readiness.
Consumer decision-making drives the pace of decarbonization,

particularly in buildings and on-road transportation. By 2030, key
technologies like plug-in electric vehicles, electric heat pump heating and
hot water systems, and other electric appliances in the home (e.g.,
P a g e | 44 |
Conclusions
stoves, clothes dryers) will need to become normalized, meeting or

exceeding half of new sales with accelerating adoption through
midcentury.
Flexibility along multiple dimensions is key to maintaining reliability

and reducing cost of a 100% zero-emission electricity system. In the
electricity sector, several forms of flexibility are necessary for balancing a
100% zero-emissions grid. Flexible end-use loads and battery storage can
provide sufficient short-term (intraday) flexibility to balance high levels
of variable renewable output. The more difficult challenge is during
winter periods with high heating loads and very low renewable energy
production, which can occur over several days. This long-duration
(interday) challenge can be solved through a combination of large-scale
hydro resources, renewable natural gas (RNG) or synthetic fuels such as
hydrogen, Carbon Capture Storage (CCS), and nuclear power.
Managed electrification can help mitigate the risk of very high winter
peaks. In addition to efficiency and end-use load flexibility, investments
in a balanced mix of electric heating system configurations and
investment in research and development to continue the improvement
in cold climate heat pump performance can help to mitigate potential risk
associated with unintended consequences of unmanaged electrification.

6 Areas for Future Research
This analysis provides an important starting point for New York as it considers
next steps to meeting CLCPA goals, but it also outlines potential areas of
additional research and exploration, as listed below.
Incorporate updated GHG emissions accounting methodologies

developed for the statewide GHG emissions limit and reporting
requirements of the CLCPA
Continue to evaluate peak heat impacts of a transition to electric space

heating in New York State, which is ongoing through the Carbon Neutral
Buildings Roadmap
Improve characterization of GHG emissions from refrigerants, including

those associated with heat pump adoption, and assess mitigation options
in detail with a focus on the use of low-GWP refrigerants in heat pumps
Evaluate the impacts of electrification on the future of natural gas

distribution within the State
Analyze local transmission needs to serve customers with 100% zero-

emissions electricity
Explore in detail implications of resource portfolios on renewable

development siting, considering protected and sensitive lands within the
State
Improve assessment of carbon capture and storage potential within the

state, especially focusing on geographic opportunities for carbon storage
and utilization
P a g e | 46 |
Areas for Future Research
Improve characterization of non-combustion emissions sources, such as

landfills, and associated mitigation opportunities.
Improve characterization of net GHG emissions from natural and working

lands over time and under different future scenarios
Continue to assess potential quantity and cost-effective conversion

pathways of sustainable bioenergy resources and develop scenarios that
explore different sectoral allocation of these resources

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Pathways to Deep

June 24, 2020

© 2020 Copyright. All Rights Reserved.

2 Progress in New York State ................................................................. 5

3 Decarbonization Pathways Analysis .................................................. 8

3.1 Analysis Overview ................................................................................ 8

3.2 Model Framework ................................................................................. 8

3.3 Scenario Development ...................................................................... 10

3.4 Key Results and Takeaways ............................................................ 14

4.2 Buildings ............................................................................................... 23

4.4 Electricity Generation ......................................................................... 29

4.4.2 Peak Demands and Load Flexibility ............................... 30

4.4.4 Transmission ....................................................................... 37

4.5 Non-Combustion Sources ................................................................. 39

4.7 Low-Carbon Fuels .............................................................................. 42

As the global average temperature continues to climb to the highest levels in

© 2020 Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. Page |1|

6 gigawatts (GW) of distributed solar by 2025

70% renewable electricity by 2030

9 GW offshore wind (OSW) by 2035

100% zero-emissions electricity by 2040

Although this analysis captures economy-wide GHG emissions and mitigation

The CLCPA requires additional reporting of emissions associated with “extraction

© 2020 Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. Page |3|

2 Progress in New York State

Energy combustion (including fossil fuel combustion, natural gas systems,

Non-combustion greenhouse gases, including industrial processes and

As shown in Figure 2, the transportation sector is the State’s largest source of

© 2020 Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. Page |5|

Figure 2. 2016 New York State GHG Emissions by Sector

2030 and 2050

© 2020 Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. Page |7|

3.1 Analysis Overview

Meeting the CLCPA’s ambitious targets requires a comprehensive analysis of GHG

As part of this work, we also performed an extensive literature review on deep

3.2 Model Framework

Our analysis uses E3’s PATHWAYS model to create strategically designed

PATHWAYS also captures interactions between demand- and supply-side

Finally, we calculate potential bioenergy supply from a variety of sustainably

© 2020 Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. Page |9|

Figure 4. E3 Modeling Framework

3.3 Scenario Development

For this analysis, E3 developed three distinct scenarios: a reference case

Reference Case: The reference scenario includes existing sector-specific

“High Technology Availability” Pathway. This pathway relies on a diverse

“Limited Non-Energy” Pathway. This pathway accelerates electrification

© 2020 Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. P a g e | 11 |

Table 1. Key scenario assumptions

Sector Strategy Expressed as Reference High Technology Limited Non-Energy

Acronyms and Abbreviations used in Table 1

© 2020 Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. P a g e | 13 |

3.4 Key Results and Takeaways

E3’s analysis finds that achieving deep decarbonization with existing

Figure 5. GHG Emissions by Scenario and Year

There is no single pathway to a decarbonized economy. A review of the

Electrification of vehicles and household appliances

Scale of renewable electricity

Carbon capture and sequestration

Negative emissions technologies

Metric 2030 2050

Metric 2030 2050

Metric 2030 2050