Equity Research: Result Update
Equity Research: Result Update
Equity Research: Result Update
Result Update
Indofood CBP
Hold on for the ride
ICBP to acquire 100% stakes of Pinehill Company Limited (PCL) HOLD
ICBP has entered into CSPA to acquire 100% stakes of Pinehill Company Limited (PCL) with
a total value of USD2,998 mn (IDR44.4 tn). The first payment amounts is USD2,348 mn (to Current Price 8,950
be paid on completion date), while USD650 mn is to be retained by the buyer (to be paid on Price Target 9,700
April 2022), if the PCL meets the guaranteed earnings of USD128.5 mn (IDR1.9 tn), that has Upside/Downside +8.4%
been agreed.
BUY
26 May 2020
However, if the actual profit is less than the guaranteed profit, ‘an amount of 23 (PE target) x
difference in actual and guaranteed profit’ is deducted from the retained payment. Note that a
5% deviation from the guaranteed profit is acceptable. To fund the acquisition, USD300 mn
INDONESIA
(IDR4.4 tn) will be obtained from ICBP’s internal cash and the rest will be from bank loans.
Note that ICBP’s cash stood at IDR8.9 tn in 1Q20. Consumer
09 May 2018
VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS
Share Performance (%)
(IDR bn) 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Month Absolute Relative
Revenue 38.413 42.297 45.338 49.271 53.750 3M -17.3 -5.4
6M -21.3 -4.6
EBITDA 7.152 8.281 8.315 9.164 9.973 12M -6.5 12.5
Net income 4.576 5.039 5.700 6.412 7.146
EPS grow th (%) 20,5 10,1 13,1 12,5 11,4
PER (x) 22,8 20,7 18,3 16,3 14,6
JENNIFER WIDJAJA
PBV (x) 4,6 3,9 3,5 3,1 2,8
jennifer.widjaja@sucorsekuritas.com
EV/EBITDA (x) 14,3 12,0 11,7 10,3 10,5 +62 21 8067 3130
Dividend yield (%) 2,2 1,5 2,5 3,0 3,4
Net gearing (x) (0,1) (0,2) (0,3) (0,3) (0,4)
Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020
Transaction value & terms: A total value of USD2,998 mn (IDR44.4 tn), divided into two
payment phases. The first payment amounts to USD2,348 mn (to be paid on completion date),
while USD650 mn is to be retained by the buyer (to be paid on April 30, 2022), if the PCL
meets the guaranteed earnings (USD128.5 mn or IDR1.9 tn) that has been agreed. This also
means that PCL’s earnings should grow by 66% yoy from its 2019’s earnings figure. If the
actual profit in 2020-2021 is less than the guaranteed profit, ‘an amount of 23 (PE target) x
difference in actual and guaranteed profit’ is deducted from the retained payment. Note that a
5% deviation from the guaranteed profit is still acceptable and that there is no upward
adjustment if the actual profit exceeds the guaranteed profit.
Funding source: To fund the acquisition, USD300 mn (IDR4.4 tn) will be obtained from
ICBP’s internal cash and the rest will be from bank loans. Note that in 1Q20, ICBP’s cash
stood at IDR8.9 tn.
However, on a longer time-frame, we believe that this acquisition is positive for ICBP’s, given
the fact that PCL operates in countries where instant noodle consumption/capita is still very
low, at only 12 packs/person/ year on average. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, instant noodle market
has been considered as saturated. Moreover, we believe that PCL’s market share dominance,
well-established business and knowledge on local market should offer ICBP benefits and that
execution risks should be lower. PCL’s target market size is also a lot larger than Indonesia,
where the total population in those 8 countries amounts to 550 mn people.
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Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020
Fig 1: Rough calculation if PCL managed to fulfill the guaranteed earnings target by 100%
(in IDR bn) ICBP - 2020F forecasts Pinehill only Combined - Post acquisition Assumptions
Revenue 45.338 15.405 58.409 Assuming net margin of 8,1% (from earnings target)
Operating profit 7.310 3.235 10.806 Assuming operating margin of 21%
Net income 5.700 1.902 6.279 Pinehill guaranteed earnings target if achieved by 100%
Fig 2: Rough calculation if PCL managed to fulfill the guaranteed earnings target by 95%
(in IDR bn) ICBP - 2020F forecasts Pinehill only Combined - Post acquisition Assumptions
Revenue 45.338 14.637 57.641 Assuming net margin of 8,1% (from earnings target)
Operating profit 7.310 3.074 10.664 Assuming operating margin of 21%
Net income 5.700 1.807 6.199 Pinehill earnings target if achieved by 95%
Fig 3: Rough calculation if PCL managed to fulfill the guaranteed earnings target by 80%
(in IDR bn) ICBP - 2020F forecasts Pinehill only Combined - Post acquisition Assumptions
Revenue 45.338 12.328 55.332 Assuming net margin of 8,1% (from earnings target)
Operating profit 7.310 2.589 10.236 Assuming operating margin of 21%
Net income 5.700 1.522 6.210 Pinehill earnings target if achieved by 80%
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Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020
Food seasoning & snack division’s volume growth jumped, while noodle’s decelerated
The strongest revenue growth came from its food seasoning division (27.0% yoy), followed by
nutrition & special food (+14.9% yoy), dairy (+9.1% yoy), snack food (+7.8% yoy) and noodle
(+6.5% yoy). Meanwhile, volume wise, volume growths were strong for both food seasoning and
snack food, up by 26% yoy and 20% yoy, respectively, which we think was benefited from the
work-from-home scheme. Volume for dairy remained stable, up by 6% yoy, while noodle volume
growth decelerated to 3% yoy, given higher base effect from last year, in our view. On the other
hand, both nutrition and beverage divisions saw 7% yoy and 4% yoy volume decline.
Segment wise, noodle division’s EBIT margin decelerated to 20.5% in 1Q (vs. 1Q19: 21.3%,
4Q19: 21.3%), despite ASP adjustments that occurred in early of the year. Meanwhile, dairy’s
EBIT margin was recorded at 17.0%. On the other hand, both beverage and snack division posted
their positive EBIT margins for the two consecutive quarters.
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Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020
Operating profit 2.195 1.928 13,8% 2.195 1.606 36,7% 7.310 30%
OPM (%) 18,3 17,1 1,2 18,3 16,9 1,4
Pre-tax profit 2.755 1.957 40,7% 2.755 1.685 63,5% 7.681 36%
Tax (650) (538) 20,9% (650) (445) 46,2%
-23,6% -27,5% 51,2% -23,6% -26,4% 72,8%
Profit before tax 2.104 1.419 48,3% 2.104 1.240 69,7%
Minority interest 122 82 48,6% 122 87 40,9%
Net profit 1.982 1.337 48,3% 1.982 1.153 71,9% 5.356 37%
NPM (%) 16,5 11,9 4,6 16,5 12,1 4,4
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Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020
Dairy
Revenue (Rp bn) 2.240 2.054 9,1% 2.240 2.052 9,1%
EBIT (Rp bn) 381 335 13,5% 381 260 46,4%
EBIT Margin (%) 17,0 16,3 0,7 17,0 12,7 4,3
Food Seasoning
Revenue (Rp bn) 855 673 27,0% 855 475 80,0%
EBIT (Rp bn) 63 75 -16,6% 63 13 397,9%
EBIT margin (%) 7,3 11,2 (3,8) 7,3 2,6 4,7
Snack
Revenue (Rp bn) 769 714 7,8% 769 559 37,5%
EBIT (Rp bn) 97 (29) N.A 97 22 342,2%
EBIT margin (%) 12,6 (4,0) 16,6 12,6 3,9 8,6
Nutrition
Revenue (Rp bn) 256 223 14,9% 256 282 -9,1%
EBIT 14 9 54,5% 14 14 -3,5%
EBIT margin (%) 5,4 4,0 34,4% 5,4 5,1 0,3
Beverages
Revenue (Rp bn) 412 454 -9,2% 412 422 -2,3%
EBIT (Rp bn) 17 (47) N.A 17 7 139,7%
EBIT margin (%) 4,1 (10,3) 14,4 4,1 1,7 2,4
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Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020
Fig 8: ICBP noodle divisions’ revenue & EBIT margin Fig 9: ICBP’s margins trend
Figure 10: ICBP’s net profit and growth Figure 11: ICBP’s PE band – trading below -2 std. deviation
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Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020
Fig 12: PCL’s market shares in countries it operates Fig 13: Population in countries PCL operates
Fig 14: PCL’s sales volume in countries it operates Fig 15: Consumption/capita in countries PCL operates (packs)
Fig 16: PCL’s ownership structure Fig 17: ICBP’s share price movement on previous affiliated transactions
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Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020
Appendix
Fig 18: Income statement and balance sheet
Profit & Loss (IDR bn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F Balance Sheet (IDR bn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F
Revenue 38.413 42.297 45.338 49.271 53.750 Cash and equivalents 4.727 8.359 9.696 12.367 15.340
Cost of revenue (26.148) (27.893) (30.491) (33.102) (35.994) Trade receivables 4.271 4.132 4.223 4.600 5.012
Gross profit 12.266 14.404 14.847 16.168 17.757 Inventories 4.001 3.841 4.260 4.625 5.029
Operating expenses (6.494) (7.126) (7.538) (8.224) (9.110) Net- Fixed assets 10.742 11.342 12.085 12.841 13.667
Operating profit 5.772 7.278 7.310 7.945 8.647 Other assets 10.626 11.035 11.919 12.260 12.585
EBITDA 7.152 8.281 8.315 9.164 9.973 Total Assets 34.367 38.709 42.184 46.694 51.634
Other op. income/exp 647 74 108 193 207 Trade payables 3.706 3.258 3.843 4.172 4.536
Finance income 313 289 419 415 423 Short-term debt + CMLTD 1.107 654 511 477 445
Final tax on interest income (59) (43) (63) (62) (63) Long-term debt 667 1.695 557 609 518
Finance expenses (226) (161) (92) (74) (72) Other liabilties 6.180 6.432 7.525 8.293 9.300
Pre-tax profit 6.447 7.437 7.681 8.416 9.142 Total Liabilities 11.660 12.038 12.436 13.549 14.799
Tax expense (1.788) (2.077) (1.920) (1.936) (1.920) Minority interest 1.088 1.370 1.431 1.500 1.577
Minority interest 83 321 61 69 77 Paid capital 6.569 6.569 6.569 6.569 6.569
Net profit 4.576 5.039 5.700 6.412 7.146 Retained earnings 15.030 18.495 21.565 24.895 28.510
EPS (IDR) 392 432 489 550 613 Other equities 21 237 183 180 180
Total Equity 22.707 26.671 29.749 33.144 36.835
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Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020
Overweight : We expect the industry to perform better than the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
Neutral : We expect the industry to perform in line with the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
Underweight : We expect the industry to underperform the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months
Buy : We expect this stock to give return (excluding dividend) of above 10% over the next 12 months.
Hold : We expect this stock to give return of between -10% and 10% over the next 12 months.
Sell : We expect this stock to give return of -10% or lower over the next 12 months
Analyst Certification
The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report hereby certify that all of the views
expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or
issuers. The research analyst(s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Disclaimers
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reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. PT SucorSekuritasaccepts no liability
whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or any solicitations of an offer to buy
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only a single factor in making their investment decision.
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Indofood Consumer Branded Product: Hold on for the ride
May 2020
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