CHAPTER 8.

TRIP DISTRIBUTION NPTEL May 3, 2007

Chapter 8

Trip distribution

8.1 Overview
The decision to travel for a given purpose is called trip generation. These generated trips from each zone is
then distributed to all other zones based on the choice of destination. This is called trip distribution which
forms the second stage of travel demand modeling. There are a number of methods to distribute trips among
destinations; and two such methods are growth factor model and gravity model. Growth factor model is a
method which respond only to relative growth rates at origins and destinations and this is suitable for short-
term trend extrapolation. In gravity model, we start from assumptions about trip making behavior and the
way it is influenced by external factors. An important aspect of the use of gravity models is their calibration,
that is the task of fixing their parameters so that the base year travel pattern is well represented by the model.

8.2 Definitions and notations

8.2.1 Trip matrix
The trip pattern in a study area can be represented by means of a trip matrix or origin-destination (O-D)matrix.
This is a two dimensional array of cells where rows and columns represent each of the zones in the study area.
The notation of the trip matrix is given in figure 8:1.
The cells of each row i contain the trips originating in that zone which have as destinations the zones in the
corresponding columns. Tij is the number of trips between origin i and destination j. Oi is the total number

Zones 1 2 ... j ... n Oi

1 T11 T12 ... T1j ... T1n O1
2 T21 T22 ... T2j ... T2n O2
.. ..
. ... ... ... ... ... ... .
where Dj = Σi Tij , Oi = Σj Tij , and T = Σij Tij .
Ti1 Ti2 ... Tij ... Tin Oi
.. ..
. ... ... ... ... ... ... .
n Tni Tn2 ... Tnj ... Tnn On
Dj D1 D2 ... Dj ... Dn T

Figure 8:1: Notation of a trip matrix

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CHAPTER 8. TRIP DISTRIBUTION NPTEL May 3, 2007

of trips between originating in zone i and Dj is the total number of trips attracted to zone j. The sum of the
trips in a row should be equal to the total number of trips emanating from that zone. The sum of the trips in a
column is the number of trips attracted to that zone. These two constraints can be represented as: Σ j Tij = Oi
Σi Tij = Dj If reliable information is available to estimate both Oi and Dj , the model is said to be doubly
constrained. In some cases, there will be information about only one of these constraints, the model is called
singly constrained.

8.2.2 Generalized cost

One of the factors that influences trip distribution is the relative travel cost between two zones. This cost
element may be considered in terms of distance, time or money units. It is often convenient to use a measure
combining all the main attributes related to the dis-utility of a journey and this is normally referred to as the
generalized cost of travel. This can be represented as

cij = a1 tvij + a2 tw t
ij + a3 tij + a4 tnij + a5 Fij + a6 φj + δ (8.1)

where tvij is the in-vehicle travel time between i and j, tw t

ij is the walking time to and from stops, tij is the waiting
time at stops, Fij is the fare charged to travel between i and j, φj is the parking cost at the destination, and
δ is a parameter representing comfort and convenience, and a1 ,a2 ,.... are the weights attached to each element
of cost function.

8.3 Growth factor methods

8.3.1 Uniform growth factor
If the only information available is about a general growth rate for the whole of the study area, then we can
only assume that it will apply to each cell in the matrix, that is a uniform growth rate. The equation can be
written as:
Tij = f × tij (8.2)

where f is the uniform growth factor tij is the previous total number of trips, Tij is the expanded total number
of trips. Advantages are that they are simple to understand, and they are useful for short-term planning.
Limitation is that the same growth factor is assumed for all zones as well as attractions.

8.3.2 Example
Trips originating from zone 1,2,3 of a study area are 78,92 and 82 respectively and those terminating at zones
1,2,3 are given as 88,96 and 78 respectively. If the growth factor is 1.3 and the cost matrix is as shown below,
find the expanded origin-constrained growth trip table.

1 2 3 oi
1 20 30 28 78
2 36 32 24 92
3 22 34 26 82
dj 88 96 78 252

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Solution Given growth factor = 1.3, Therefore, multiplying the growth factor with each of the cells in the
matrix gives the solution as shown below.

1 2 3 Oi
1 26 39 36.4 101.4
2 46.8 41.6 31.2 119.6
3 28.6 44.2 33.8 106.2
Dj 101.4 124.8 101.4 327.6

8.3.3 Doubly constrained growth factor model

When information is available on the growth in the number of trips originating and terminating in each zone,
we know that there will be different growth rates for trips in and out of each zone and consequently having
two sets of growth factors for each zone. This implies that there are two constraints for that model and such a
model is called doubly constrained growth factor model. One of the methods of solving such a model is given
by Furness who introduced balancing factors ai and bj as follows:

Tij = tij × ai × bj (8.3)

In such cases, a set of intermediate correction coefficients are calculated which are then appropriately applied
to cell entries in each row or column. After applying these corrections to say each row, totals for each column
are calculated and compared with the target values. If the differences are significant, correction coefficients are
calculated and applied as necessary. The procedure is given below:

1. Set bj = 1

2. With bj solve for ai to satisfy trip generation constraint.

3. With ai solve for bj to satisfy trip attraction constraint.

4. Update matrix and check for errors.

5. Repeat steps 2 and 3 till convergence.

Here the error is calculated as: E = Σ|Oi − Oi1 | + Σ|Dj − Dj1 | where Oi corresponds to the actual productions
from zone i and Oi1 is the calculated productions from that zone. Similarly Dj are the actual attractions from
the zone j and Dj1 are the calculated attractions from that zone.

8.3.4 Advantages and limitations of growth factor model

The advantages of this method are:

1. Simple to understand.

2. Preserve observed trip pattern.

3. useful in short term-planning.

The limitations are:

1. Depends heavily on the observed trip pattern.

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CHAPTER 8. TRIP DISTRIBUTION NPTEL May 3, 2007

2. It cannot explain unobserved trips.

3. Do not consider changes in travel cost.

4. Not suitable for policy studies like introduction of a mode.

Example

The base year trip matrix for a study area consisting of three zones is given below.

1 2 3 oi
1 20 30 28 78
2 36 32 24 92
3 22 34 26 82
dj 88 96 78 252

The productions from the zone 1,2 and 3 for the horizon year is expected to grow to 98, 106, and 122 respectively.
The attractions from these zones are expected to increase to 102, 118, 106 respectively. Compute the trip matrix
for the horizon year using doubly constrained growth factor model using Furness method.

Solution The sum of the attractions in the horizon year, i.e. ΣOi = 98+106+122 = 326. The sum of the
productions in the horizon year, i.e. ΣDj = 102+118+106 = 326. They both are found to be equal. Therefore
we can proceed. The first step is to fix bj = 1, and find balancing factor ai . ai = Oi /oi , then find Tij = ai × tij
So a1 = 98/78 = 1.26
a2 = 106/92 = 1.15
a3 = 122/82 = 1.49 Further T11 = t11 × a1 = 20 × 1.26 = 25.2. Similarly T12 = t12 × a2 = 36 × 1.15 = 41.4.
etc. Multiplying a1 with the first row of the matrix, a2 with the second row and so on, matrix obtained is as
shown below.
1 2 3 oi
1 25.2 37.8 35.28 98
2 41.4 36.8 27.6 106
3 32.78 50.66 38.74 122
d1j 99.38 125.26 101.62
Dj 102 118 106

Also d1j = 25.2 + 41.4 + 32.78 = 99.38

In the second step, find bj = Dj /d1j and Tij = tij ×bj . For example b1 = 102/99.38 = 1.03, b2 = 118/125.26 =
0.94 etc.,T11 = t1 1 × b1 = 25.2 × 1.03 = 25.96 etc. Also Oi1 = 25.96 + 35.53 + 36.69 = 98.18. The matrix is as
shown below:

1 2 3 oi Oi
1 25.96 35.53 36.69 98.18 98
2 42.64 34.59 28.70 105.93 106
3 33.76 47.62 40.29 121.67 122
bj 1.03 0.94 1.04
Dj 102 118 106

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1 2 3 Oi1 Oi
1 25.96 35.53 36.69 98.18 98
2 42.64 34.59 28.70 105.93 106
3 33.76 47.62 40.29 121.67 122
dj 102.36 117.74 105.68 325.78
Dj 102 118 106 326

Therefore error can be computed as ; Error = Σ|Oi − Oi1 | + Σ|Dj − dj |

Error = |98.18 − 98| + |105.93 − 106| + |121.67 − 122| + |102.36 − 102| + |117.74 − 118| + |105.68 − 106| = 1.32

8.4 Gravity model

This model originally generated from an analogy with Newton’s gravitational law. Newton’s gravitational
law says, F = GM1 M2 /d2 Analogous to this, Tij = COi Dj /cij n Introducing some balancing factors, Tij =
Ai Oi Bj Dj f (cij ) where Ai and Bj are the balancing factors, f (cij ) is the generalized function of the travel cost.
This function is called deterrence function because it represents the disincentive to travel as distance (time) or
cost increases. Some of the versions of this function are:

f (cij ) = e−βcij (8.4)

f (cOJ ) = c−n
ij (8.5)
f (cij ) = c−n
ij × e
−βcij
(8.6)
The first equation is called the exponential function, second one is called power function where as the third one
is a combination of exponential and power function. The general form of these functions for different values of
their parameters is as shown in figure.
As in the growth factor model, here also we have singly and doubly constrained models. The expression
Tij = Ai Oi Bj Dj f (cij ) is the classical version of the doubly constrained model. Singly constrained versions
can be produced by making one set of balancing factors Ai or Bj equal to one. Therefore we can treat singly
constrained model as a special case which can be derived from doubly constrained models. Hence we will limit
our discussion to doubly constrained models.
As seen earlier, the model has the functional form, Tij = Ai Oi Bj Dj f (cij )

Σi Tij = Σi Ai Oi Bj Dj f (cij ) (8.7)

But
Σi Tij = Dj (8.8)
Therefore,
Dj = Bj Dj Σi Ai Oi f (cij ) (8.9)
From this we can find the balancing factor Bj as

Bj = 1/Σi Ai Oi f (cij ) (8.10)

Bj depends on Ai which can be found out by the following equation:

Ai = 1/Σj Bj Dj f (cij ) (8.11)

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CHAPTER 8. TRIP DISTRIBUTION NPTEL May 3, 2007

We can see that both Ai and Bj are interdependent. Therefore, through some iteration procedure similar to
that of Furness method, the problem can be solved. The procedure is discussed below:

1. Set Bj = 1, find Ai using equation 8.11

2. Find Bj using equation 8.10

3. Compute the error as E = Σ|Oi − Oi1 | + Σ|Dj − Dj1 | where Oi corresponds to the actual productions from
zone i and Oi1 is the calculated productions from that zone. Similarly Dj are the actual attractions from
the zone j and Dj1 are the calculated attractions from that zone.

4. Again set Bj = 1 and find Ai , also find Bj . Repeat these steps until the convergence is achieved.

Example

The productions from zone 1, 2 and 3 are 98, 106, 122 and attractions to zone 1,2 and 3 are 102, 118, 106. The
function f (cij ) is defined as f (cij ) = 1/c2ij The cost matrix is as shown below
 
1.0 1.2 1.8
 1.2 1.0 1.5  (8.12)
 

1.8 1.5 1.0

Solution The first step is given in Table 8:1 The second step is to find Bj . This can be found out as

Table 8:1: Step1: Computation of parameter Ai

1
i j Bj DJ f (cij ) Bj Dj f (cij ) ΣBj Dj f (cij ) Ai = ΣBj Dj f (cij )
1 1.0 102 1.0 102.00
1 2 1.0 118 0.69 81.42 216.28 0.00462
3 1.0 106 0.31 32.86
1 1.0 102 0.69 70.38
2 2 1.0 118 1.0 118 235.02 0.00425
3 1.0 106 0.44 46.64
1 1.0 102 0.31 31.62
3 2 1.0 118 0.44 51.92 189.54 0.00527
3 1.0 106 1.00 106

Bj = 1/ΣAi Oi f (cij ), where Ai is obtained from the previous step. The detailed computation is given in
Table 8:2. The function f (cij ) can be written in the matrix form as:
 
1.0 0.69 0.31
 0.69 1.0 0.44  (8.13)
 

0.31 0.44 1.0

Then Tij can be computed using the formula

Tij = Ai Oi Bj Dj f (cij ) (8.14)

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CHAPTER 8. TRIP DISTRIBUTION NPTEL May 3, 2007

Table 8:2: Step2: Computation of parameter Bj

j i Ai Oi f (cij ) Ai Oi f (cij ) ΣAi Oi f (cij ) Bj = 1/ΣAi Oi f (cij )
1 0.00462 98 1.0 0.4523
1 2 0.00425 106 0.694 0.3117 0.9618 1.0397
3 0.00527 122 0.308 0.1978
1 0.00462 98 0.69 0.3124
2 2 0.00425 106 1.0 0.4505 1.0458 0.9562
3 0.00527 122 0.44 0.2829
1 0.00462 98 0.31 0.1404
3 2 0.00425 106 0.44 0.1982 0.9815 1.0188
3 0.00527 122 1.00 0.6429

Table 8:3: Step3: Final Table

1 2 3 Ai Oi Oi1
1 48.01 35.24 15.157 0.00462 98 98.407
2 32.96 50.83 21.40 0.00425 106 105.19
3 21.14 31.919 69.43 0.00527 122 122.489
Bj 1.0397 0.9562 1.0188
Dj 102 118 106
Dj1 102.11 117.989 105.987

For eg, T11 = 102 × 1.0397 × 0.00462 × 98 × 1 = 48.01. Oi is the actual productions from the zone and Oi1 is the
computed ones. Similar is the case with attractions also. The results are shown in table 8:3. O i is the actual
productions from the zone and Oi1 is the computed ones. Similar is the case with attractions also.
Therefore error can be computed as ; Error = Σ|Oi − Oi1 | + Σ|Dj − Dj1 | Error = |98 − 98.407| + |106 −
105.19| + |122 − 122.489| + ||102 − 102.11| + |118 − 117.989| + |106 − 105.987| = 2.03

8.5 Summary
The second stage of travel demand modeling is the trip distribution. Trip matrix can be used to represent
the trip pattern of a study area. Growth factor methods and gravity model are used for computing the trip
matrix. Singly constrained models and doubly constrained growth factor models are discussed. In gravity
model, considering singly constrained model as a special case of doubly constrained model, doubly constrained
model is explained in detail.

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8.6 Problems
The trip productions from zones 1, 2 and 3 are 110, 122 and 114 respectively and the trip attractions to these
zones are 120,108, and 118 respectively. The cost matrix is given below. The function f (c ij ) = c1ij
 
1.0 1.2 1.8
 1.2 1.0 1.5 
 

1.8 1.5 1.0

Compute the trip matrix using doubly constrained gravity model. Provide one complete iteration.

Solution The first step is given in Table 8:4 The second step is to find Bj . This can be found out as

Table 8:4: Step1: Computation of parameter Ai

1
i j Bj DJ f (cij ) Bj Dj f (cij ) ΣBj Dj f (cij ) Ai = ΣBj Dj f (cij )
1 1.0 120 1.0 120.00
1 2 1.0 108 0.833 89.964 275.454 0.00363
3 1.0 118 0.555 65.49
1 1.0 120 0.833 99.96
2 2 1.0 108 1.0 108 286.66 0.00348
3 1.0 118 0.667 78.706
1 1.0 120 0.555 66.60
3 2 1.0 108 0.667 72.036 256.636 0.00389
3 1.0 118 1.00 118

Bj = 1/ΣAi Oi f (cij ), where Ai is obtained from the previous step. The function f (cij ) can be written in the

Table 8:5: Step2: Computation of parameter Bj

j i Ai Oi f (cij ) Ai Oi f (cij ) ΣAi Oi f (cij ) Bj = 1/ΣAi Oi f (cij )
1 0.00363 110 1.0 0.3993
1 2 0.00348 122 0.833 0.3536 0.9994 1.048
3 0.00389 114 0.555 0.2465
1 0.00363 110 0.833 0.3326
2 2 0.00348 122 1.0 0.4245 1.05 0.9494
3 0.00389 114 0.667 0.2962
1 0.00363 110 0555 0.2216
3 2 0.00348 122 0.667 0.2832 0.9483 1.054
3 0.00389 114 1.00 0.44346

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Table 8:6: Step 3: Final Table

1 2 3 Ai Oi Oi1
1 48.01 34.10 27.56 0.00363 110 109.57
2 42.43 43.53 35.21 0.00348 122 121.17
3 29.53 30.32 55.15 0.00389 114 115
Bj 1.048 0.9494 1.054
Dj 120 108 118
Dj1 119.876 107.95 117.92

matrix form as:  

1.0 0.833 0.555
 0.833 1.0 0.667  (8.15)
 

0.555 0.667 1.0

Then Tij can be computed using the formula

Tij = Ai Oi Bj Dj f (cij ) (8.16)

For eg, T11 = 102 × 1.0397 × 0.00462 × 98 × 1 = 48.01. Oi is the actual productions from the zone and Oi1 is
the computed ones. Similar is the case with attractions also. This step is given in Table 8:6 O i is the actual
productions from the zone and Oi1 is the computed ones. Similar is the case with attractions also.
Therefore error can be computed as ; Error = Σ|Oi − Oi1 | + Σ|Dj − Dj1 | Error = |110 − 109.57| + |122 −
121.17| + |114 − 115| + |120 − 119.876 + |108 − 107.95| + |118 − 117.92| = 2.515

Introduction to Transportation Engineering 8.9 Tom V. Mathew and K V Krishna Rao