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8.1, 8.2 & 8.3 Theoretical Probability: Probability of An Event Occurring

The document discusses theoretical probability and how to calculate it. It provides examples of calculating the probability of outcomes from rolling dice, spinning spinners with different colored sections, and winning games. The key points are: 1) Probability is a measure of how likely an event is, ranging from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). 2) To calculate probability, you divide the number of desired outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes. 3) The probability of an event not occurring is 1 minus the probability of it occurring.

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Eugenio Capiello
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255 views3 pages

8.1, 8.2 & 8.3 Theoretical Probability: Probability of An Event Occurring

The document discusses theoretical probability and how to calculate it. It provides examples of calculating the probability of outcomes from rolling dice, spinning spinners with different colored sections, and winning games. The key points are: 1) Probability is a measure of how likely an event is, ranging from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). 2) To calculate probability, you divide the number of desired outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes. 3) The probability of an event not occurring is 1 minus the probability of it occurring.

Uploaded by

Eugenio Capiello
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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conceptId=15816&onlyNotes=true&printPage=true

8.1, 8.2 & 8.3 Theoretical probability


Probability measures how likely an event is. It is measured on the probability scale which
goes from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). An outcome with an even chance has a probability of
0.5.

Probability of an event occurring


When you roll a normal die, there are six possible outcomes: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

The probability of throwing a two is one chance out of six.

Probability of =

However the probability of throwing an even number is three out of six.

Probability of or or =

  =

The probability of an event happening is the number of times the chosen outcome
occurs out of the total number of possible outcomes.

Probability =

You can express probability as a fraction, decimal or percentage.

Click Widget to create groups of beetles with the right proportions to match given
probabilities.

Click Widget to change the marbles in a container and determine the e ect this has on
the probability of getting a particular colour from a random choice.

EXAMPLE
The three pink, green and blue triangles on this spinner are all the
same size.

What is the probability that the spinner will stop on:


    
1. blue?
2. green or pink?
3. green, pink or blue?
4. red?
SOLUTION
1. There is a 1-in-3 chance the spinner will stop on blue.
Probability
Processing math: 100% of blue =

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2. You have two chances of getting green or pink.
Probability of green or pink =

 
3. You have three chances of getting blue, green or pink.
Probability of green, pink or blue = =1

A probability of 1 means that outcome is certain.


 
4. You have no chance of getting a colour not on the spinner.
Probability of red = 0

Probability and bias


BIAS occurs if one outcome is more likely than another.

This spinner shows bias in favour of blue.

There is a 50% chance that this spinner will land on blue but only
      a 25% chance that it will land on green and only a 25% chance that it
will land on yellow.

You can design spinners that give you a fair chance of getting any result, and spinners that
will bias the results in a particular way.

Print Hotsheet to discover how to design your own spinners to suit any game you want
to invent.

When you have completed your spinners, click Solutions to compare your designs with
some examples.

The probability that an event does not happen


An event may happen or it may not happen. These two probabilities will always add to give
1 (since it is certain that either an event will happen or it will not happen).

The probability of an event not happening is always 1 minus the probability that it will
happen. You can write this as:

P(not E) = 1 – P(E)
Processing math: 100%

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P(E) and P(not E) are sometimes called complementary events and you may see P(not E)
ˉ
written as P(E).

Sometimes it is easier to work out the chance of not getting what you want and subtracting
this fraction from 1.
EXAMPLE
If the probability of winning a game is 0.25, what is the probability of not winning it?

SOLUTION
Probability of winning = P(winning) = 0.25

P(not winning) = 1 − P(winning)


  = 1 – 0.25
  = 0.75

Print Hotsheet to practise describing probabilities using numbers.

Click Solutions to check your answers when you have completed the Worksheet.

Processing math: 100%

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