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Name: Zainab Kashani Student Id:63075 POM Assignment No 2

This document contains student assignment details including demand data across 11 years, 3-year and weighted moving averages of demand, temperature and demand data to calculate errors and forecasts, exponential smoothing to forecast future demand, regression analysis of number of accidents by month, and seasonal indices calculation from quarterly demand data over 3 years. The key information provided are calculations of various moving averages, errors, and forecasts from time series data, and seasonal indices from quarterly demand patterns.

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Zainab Kashani
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35 views4 pages

Name: Zainab Kashani Student Id:63075 POM Assignment No 2

This document contains student assignment details including demand data across 11 years, 3-year and weighted moving averages of demand, temperature and demand data to calculate errors and forecasts, exponential smoothing to forecast future demand, regression analysis of number of accidents by month, and seasonal indices calculation from quarterly demand data over 3 years. The key information provided are calculations of various moving averages, errors, and forecasts from time series data, and seasonal indices from quarterly demand patterns.

Uploaded by

Zainab Kashani
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Name: Zainab Kashani

Student Id:63075
POM
Assignment no 2
4.2
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Demand 7 9 5 9 13 8 12 13 9 11 7

(B) 3 year moving average starting in year 4 and going to year 12.
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Forecast
Demand 7 9 5 9 13 8 12 13 9 11 7
7.0 7.7 9 10 11 11 11.3 11 9

5+9+7 / 3 = 7
(C) Your weighted moving average
Weight of 0.1, 0.3 + 0.6
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Forecast
Weighted 6.4 7.8 11 9.6 10.9 12.8 10.5 10.6 6.4
Average

= 7 * 0.1 + 9 * 0.3 + 5 * 0.6 / 1


= 6.4

4.8
(a) (96+88+90)/3 = 91.3
(b) (88+90)/2 = 89
(c)
Temprature 2 day M.A. [error] (error)^2 Absolute % error
93 - - - - -
94 - - - - -
93 93.5 0.5 0.25 100(0.5/93) -0.54%
95 93.5 1.5 2.25 100(1.5/95) -1.58%
96 94 2 4 100(2/96) -2.08%
88 95.5 7.5 56.25 100(7.5/88) -8.52%
90 92 2 4 100(2/90) -2.22%

13.5 66.75 14.94%

MAD= 13.5/5 = 2.7


(d) MSE= 66.75/5 = 13.35
(e) MAPE = 14.94%/5 = 2.99%

4.12

T Day Actual Demand Forecast Demand


1 Monday 88 88
2 Tuesday 72 38
3 Wednesday 68 84
4 Thursday 48 80
5 Friday

(C) Friday demand using exponential smoothing


New forecast for Friday demand =
Ft = Ft - 1 + x (A t-1 – F t-1)
Ft = 80 + 0.25 (48 – 80)
Ft = 72

4.24

Month No.of accident X2 xy


(y)

1 Jan 30 1 30
2 Feb 40 4 80
3 march 60 9 180
4 April 90 16 360
{y=220 30 {xy=650

x=10/4
x=2.5

y=220/4
y=55

By using the formula:

b= {xy-nxy}
{n2-nx2}
= 650-4(2.5)(5.5)
30-4(2.5)2
b=2
a=y-bx
a=55-20(2.5)
a=5

y= a+bx
For costing the number of accident in may so x=5
y=5+20(5)
y=5

4.27
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Average D Average
Demand
Winter 73 65 89 73+65+89/3=75.6 106.67
7
Spring 104 82 146 110.67 106.67
Summer 168 124 205 165.67 106.67
Fall 74 52 98 74.67 106.67

Average Quarter Demand=1280/12=106.67


Seasonal Index:
Formula:

Average Y1, Y2, Y3 Demand/Average Quarter Demand


75.7/106.33 0.709
110.67/106.33 1.037
165.67/106.33 1.553
74.67/106.33 0.700

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