The Case For Trae Young - A Follow Up

Summary Contents
1 Trae Young’s Offensive Impact: Part II

• Advanced Offensive Impact Metrics Tell The Same Story: Trae is Elite Offensively
• A Comparison of Trae’s Playmaking, Perimeter Shooting, and Finishing Rankings (B-ball Index)
• Effectiveness Per “Touch”
• Trae’s 2019-20 Per 100 Possession Statistics are Historically Impressive
2 Trae Young’s Defensive Impact: Part II

• Advanced Defensive Metrics – Trae vs. Luka
• Defensive Metrics Are Not the Holy Grail Despite “Blog Boys” Thinking They Are
• Trae’s Physical Limitations and Why They Might Not Be a Deal Breaker
• Defensive Improvement Examples and A Case Study of A Different Atlanta Hawks Point Guard
3 CLOSING THOUGHTS
1
1 TRAE’S OFFENSIVE IMPACT: PART II
2
1 Introduction
• In my initial 42-page long-form paper I attempted to prove (1) why Trae Young’s 2019-20 season was historically impressive despite
the lack of media coverage and respect that’s commensurate with a young player of his caliber, and (2) that Trae was just as impactful
as Luka Doncic offensively.
• While some readers appreciated my arguments, other more statistically-advanced readers correctly pointed out that the paper had
glossed over, omitted, or mischaracterized some key analyses, particularly as it relates to more advanced regression-based impact
metrics. Given the initial target audience for that long-form paper is much less statistically sophisticated, I intentionally excluded
these impact metrics; however, this is my attempt at satisfying all parties.
• Ultimately, the resulting conclusions from examining these advanced impact metrics are the same as those in my prior analysis,
and my assertions remain unchanged: Trae is elite offensively and just as impactful as Luka despite the conventional wisdom
wanting you to believe otherwise.
If you already have a strong understanding of what these impact statistics mean or how they’re derived, you can skip the next page
Sources:
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/k4kp42/trae_young_is_better_than_you_think_he_is_a_42/
3
1 Offensive Impact Metrics: Definitions
Player Impact Plus-Minus (PIPM) is a plus-minus impact metric that combines luck-adjusted plus-minus data with the
value of the box score and a handful of interaction terms to estimate a player’s value over the course of a season. Using
these luck-adjusted plus-minus values as an input, along with the box score, PIPM is one of the most accurate publicly
available impact metrics in terms of predicting future results.
Real Plus-Minus (RPM) is inspired by the same underlying plus-minus logic and draws on advanced statistical modeling
techniques to isolate the unique plus-minus impact of each NBA player by adjusting for the effects of each teammate
and opposing player. RPM estimates how many points each player adds or subtracts, on average, to his team's net
scoring margin for each 100 possessions played.
The RPM model sifts through more than 230,000 possessions each NBA season to tease apart the "real" plus-minus
effects attributable to each player, employing techniques similar to those used by scientific researchers when they need
to model the effects of numerous variables at the same time. (RPM was developed by Jeremias Engelmann, formerly of
the Phoenix Suns).
RAPTOR, which stands for Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings, is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA
statistic. Like Box Plus-Minus (BPM) and RPM, RAPTOR is a plus-minus statistic that measures the number of points a
player contributes to his team’s offense and defense per 100 possessions, relative to a league-average player. For
instance, a player with an offensive RAPTOR rating of +2.1 boosts his team’s performance by 2.1 points per 100 offensive
possessions while he is on the floor.
Plus-minus statistics have certain inherent limitations, and RAPTOR is subject to those, too. Namely, these statistics
assume that player performance is largely linear and additive, that is, that you can roughly add up the ratings from
individual players to project team performance. In other words, RAPTOR does not account for coaching, systems or
synergies between teammates.
NOTE: I EXCLUDED BOX PLUS-MINUS (BPM) BECAUSE IT IS AN INHERENTLY LESS VALUABLE/RELIABLE STATISTIC
THAN THE THREE ABOVE. RPM IS MORE USEFUL AND IS GENERALLY STABLE OVER 1-YEAR TIME PERIODS
Sources:
PIPM: https://www.bball-index.com/player-impact-plus-minus/
PIPM (continued): https://www.bball-index.com/player-impact-plus-minus/#:~:text=Player%20Impact%20Plus%2DMinus%20(PIPM,the%20course%20of%20a%20season
RPM: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/10740818/introducing-real-plus-minus 4
RAPTOR: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-raptor-metric-works/
1 Advanced Offensive Impact Metrics Tell The Same Story: Trae is Elite Offensively
Value NBA Rank
Luka Trae Luka Trae
O-PIPM 5.99 5.02 1 3
O-RPM 4.60 6.70 7 2
O-RAPTOR 7.73 7.05 3 4
Simple Average 6.11 6.26 3.7 3.0
Sources:
PIPM (continued): https://www.bball-index.com/player-impact-plus-minus/#:~:text=Player%20Impact%20Plus%2DMinus%20(PIPM,the%20course%20of%20a%20season.
1
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
4.00
Stephen Curry 2015-2016
8.27
James Harden 2018-2019
Isaiah Thomas 2016-2017
Chris Paul 2014-2015
LeBron James 2016-2017
Luka Doncic 2019-2020
5.99
Kevin Durant 2018-2019
2019-20
Luka Doncic
Russell Westbrook 2016-2017
Draymond Green 2015-2016
Trae Young 2019-2020
5.02
Damian Lillard 2018-2019

2019-20

Trae Young
Kawhi Leonard 2016-2017

Giannis Antetokounmpo 2019-2020
top 1% of all seasons since 2013-14
Sources: B-Ball Index (https://www.bball-index.com/2019-20-impact-metrics/)

Kyrie Irving 2016-2017
Both Luka and Trae performed within the
Kevin Love 2013-2014

Nikola Jokic 2016-2017
Kyle Lowry 2016-2017
Klay Thompson 2014-2015
Goran Dragic 2013-2014
Lou Williams 2014-2015
Danilo Gallinari 2019-2020
Mike Conley 2016-2017
Karl-Anthony Towns 2017-2018
Paul George 2018-2019
Blake Griffin 2016-2017
Bradley Beal 2016-2017
Kemba Walker 2017-2018
John Wall 2016-2017
Anthony Davis 2014-2015
Devin Booker 2019-2020
Dirk Nowitzki 2013-2014
Eric Gordon 2017-2018
O-PIPM Ranking: Top 100 Seasons Since the 2013-14 NBA Season
DeAndre Jordan 2014-2015

Jimmy Butler 2017-2018
JJ Redick 2015-2016
DeMar DeRozan 2017-2018
Joel Embiid 2018-2019
Carmelo Anthony 2013-2014
George Hill 2014-2015
6
Manu Ginobili 2013-2014

Gordon Hayward 2016-2017
3.10
1
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
10.00
9.00 8.66
6.70
2019-20
Stephen Curry 2017-2018 Trae Young

Deron Williams 2013-2014


George Hill 2014-2015
4.60

2019-20

Luka Doncic

Ty Lawson 2013-2014
Kyle Korver 2014-2015
Ty Lawson 2014-2015
Channing Frye 2013-2014
Davis Bertans 2019-2020
O-RPM Ranking: Top 100 Seasons Since the 2013-14 NBA Season

Tyreke Evans 2014-2015
LaMarcus Aldridge 2014-2015
Luol Deng 2014-2015
7

DeMarcus Cousins 2016-2017
Joe Johnson 2013-2014
3.54
1
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
11.07
7.73
Luka Doncic
LeBron James 2017-2018 7.05
2019-20

2019-20 Trae Young




Kevin Love 2013-2014
Kyle Korver 2014-2015
John Wall 2016-2017
Tyreke Evans 2017-2018
O-RAPTOR Ranking: Top 100 Seasons Since the 2013-14 NBA Season

Chris Copeland 2013-2014
8

Jrue Holiday 2018-2019
4.01
1 B-Ball Index Rankings: Playmaking Talent
• One of Trae’s biggest strengths is his passing ability, and the numbers support it – he is an elite passer by any metric, basic or advanced. He was 2nd in the entire
NBA in APG in 2019-20 (behind Lebron) despite a supporting cast that shot well below league-average on 2-point FGs and 3-point FGs. He was 2nd in “Potential
Assists” per game, “Assist Points Created” per game, and top 10 in “Secondary ‘Hockey’ Assists” per game. But while these counting stats are impressive, most
advanced metrics illustrate that Trae’s passing is even more remarkable.
• B-Ball Index is one service that uses player tracking and SportRadar data to analyze how good of a passer a player truly is. Their analysis incorporates Passing
Creation Volume (the volume of passes and creation opportunities a player generates), Creation Quality (the location of assists, as well as conversion rates on
potential assists for players relative to rates for those same players passed to from other teammates and league average on types of scoring looks), Passing
Versatility (the type and location of passes), Passing Efficiency (fewer turnovers and more efficient use of time when they have the ball in their hands), and
Scoring Gravity (better players attract defenders which opens up teammates).
• The final output of this detailed Playmaking evaluation is that Trae’s 2019-20 season was the 3rd best playmaking season since 2013-14, behind only James
Harden’s MVP season in 2016-17 and Lebron James in 2019-20. In fact, despite the media’s obsession with Luka’s passing ability, Trae has two seasons of
higher playmaking scores above Luka’s 2019-20 season (albeit slightly).
Sources: B-Ball Index (https://www.bball-index.com/) 9

1 B-Ball Index Rankings: Perimeter Shooting Talent
• In addition to being an elite passer, Trae is also an elite shooter. But raw shooting percentages don’t tell the whole story with Trae and other star
players due to many hard to quantify factors, particularly Shot Quality. For example, it’s not difficult to understand why PJ Tucker’s 3-point percentage
is not really all that comparable to someone like Trae Young or Luka Doncic given the massive difference in shot quality (catch and shoot vs pull-up),
shot openness (contested vs open), and shot distance (corner vs above-the-break).
• Like the passing analysis on the prior slides, B-Ball Index also has a robust analysis that evaluates perimeter shooters. Based on their analysis of shot
difficulty, shot distance, shot quality, etc…Trae ranked 13th in the NBA this season as a perimeter shooter, trailing mainly the specialist shooters like
Duncan Robinson and Davis Bertans. The only All-Star caliber players ahead of Trae were James Harden, Damian Lillard, and Paul George. Luka
Ranked 43rd.
RANKING SHOOTER AVG SHOT DISTANCE 3PT SHOT QUALITY 3PT OPENNESS RATING 3PT SHOT MAKING 3PT SHOT CREATION PERIMETER SHOOTING
1 Duncan Robinson 76.3% 8.3% 1.7% 99.9% 7.7% 99.9%
2 Davis Bertans 89.9% 0.5% 0.7% 99.9% 64.8% 99.9%
3 James Harden 90.3% 0.0% 0.1% 99.2% 100.0% 99.8%
4 Damian Lillard 93.2% 0.4% 0.8% 99.7% 99.8% 99.7%
5 Buddy Hield 63.8% 17.9% 1.9% 99.1% 98.1% 99.6%
6 JJ Redick 44.8% 3.9% 6.0% 99.7% 73.0% 99.6%
7 Devonte' Graham 88.1% 1.7% 2.5% 98.0% 99.6% 99.2%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. 73.9% 34.7% 4.7% 98.8% 89.8% 98.9%
9 Seth Curry 71.1% 28.9% 8.2% 99.2% 89.0% 98.9%
10 D'Angelo Russell 90.0% 1.5% 1.2% 97.3% 99.4% 98.7%
11 Paul George 74.3% 12.4% 2.1% 98.3% 96.0% 98.7%
12 Danilo Gallinari 84.3% 9.0% 5.9% 98.9% 80.9% 98.7%
13 Trae Young 93.8% 1.8% 5.1% 95.3% 99.9% 98.6%
14 Jayson Tatum 67.6% 2.4% 0.8% 98.2% 98.6% 98.6%
15 Zach LaVine 87.3% 2.1% 3.4% 97.6% 99.2% 98.5%
16 Kemba Walker 64.7% 17.6% 1.4% 95.6% 99.7% 98.3%
17 Bojan Bogdanovic 67.6% 50.1% 13.8% 98.4% 81.8% 98.1%
18 Doug McDermott 52.1% 61.6% 4.4% 98.8% 1.5% 98.1%
19 Evan Fournier 58.0% 17.9% 11.3% 98.0% 92.8% 97.9%
..
20 Karl-Anthony Towns 75.0% 5.7% 17.2% 98.3% 76.9% 97.9%
.
43 Luka Doncic 93.1% 0.3% 0.8% 44.0% 99.9% 94.3%

1 B-Ball Index Rankings: Finishing Talent
• Luka’s size gives him a significant edge when it comes to finishing in the paint. He was among the league leaders in paint FG% as well as taking contact
and finishing “and-1s”. His elite finishing ability offsets his below average shooting percentages and results in overall efficient scoring percentages.
• Trae’s finishing was ranked 65th by B-Ball Index this season which is low relative to his passing and perimeter shooting ranks, but his effective floater
allowed him to finish higher than bigger players like Jayson Tatum, Devin Booker, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Lowry, and CJ McCollum.
RANKING PLAYER SHOT DIFFICULTY GETTING TO RIM SCORING AT RIM FINISHING

1 Derrick Rose 98.3 99.9 99.7 100.0
2 Zion Williamson 17.9 96.5 100.0 100.0
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo 65.4 98.2 99.8 99.9
4 Russell Westbrook 99.0 100.0 95.8 99.8
5 Montrezl Harrell 16.8 98.0 97.8 99.6
6 LeBron James 94.7 99.4 99.0 99.4
7 Luka Doncic 99.2 99.2 98.4 99.0
8 James Harden 98.8 99.8 92.8 98.9
9 Zach LaVine 94.9 99.1 91.5 98.5
10 Domantas Sabonis 15.7 94.1 96.4 98.4
11 Jrue Holiday 96.1 99.4 88.8 98.2
12 Spencer Dinwiddie 98.8 99.3 93.8 98.2
13 De'Aaron Fox 96.4 98.8 96.7 98.2
14 Enes Kanter 22.8 98.6 56.5 98.1
15 Julius Randle 66.2 95.8 95.2 97.9
16 DeMar DeRozan 95.5 96.5 98.5 97.8
17 Jonas Valanciunas 14.0 71.7 98.9 97.7
18 Ja Morant 87.1 99.0 84.0 97.5
19 Damian Lillard 96.8 99.4 90.0 97.4
.
20 Markelle Fultz 89.9 96.9 95.9 97.1
..
65 Trae Young 98.4 98.6 12.6 89.2

1 Effectiveness Per “Touch”: Total Offense Created
• As mentioned in my initial long-form analysis, Trae often gets criticized by the media for being too ball dominant or dribbling too much to the
team’s detriment (the same things that Luka is praised for, mind you). But this criticism appears unfounded given Trae generates more offense
per equivalent touch than most other ball dominant players or offense initiators, including Luka. It can therefore be argued that Trae’s touches
are more valuable than Luka’s despite many arguing otherwise.
• Note: Assist Points Created = Points generated from Assists, including 2-pointers and 3-pointers
Points + Assist Points Created Per Touch

Trae created +13% more
0.728 total offense per touch
0.631 0.624
0.613 0.607 0.605 0.605
0.593 0.584
0.554 0.548
0.536 0.532
0.520 0.515
0.501 0.490 0.485
0.479
0.460 0.458 0.454 0.450 0.448
0.441
0.411 0.401
0.383
Chris Paul
Devin Booker
CJ McCollum
Luka Doncic
DeMar DeRozan
Russell Westbrook
Damian Lillard
Kyle Lowry
Fred VanVleet
Ricky Rubio
Kawhi Leonard
LeBron James
Ben Simmons
Jamal Murray
Paul George
Bradley Beal
Donovan Mitchell
De'Aaron Fox
Jayson Tatum
Trae Young
Jimmy Butler
Ja Morant
Kemba Walker
James Harden
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Nikola Jokic
Malcolm Brogdon
Brandon Ingram
Sources:
NBA.com/stats
Second Spectrum
Synergy 12
1 Effectiveness Per “Touch”: Passing (1)
• Trae was 4th in the NBA in scoring at 29.6 PPG so his per touch “Total Offense” figures include this efficient high-level scoring. But if
we isolate just his assists and “secondary ‘hockey’ assists” we see a similar story – Trae is near the top of the NBA in assists generated
per touch, and again outpaced Luka.
Assists + Secondary ("Hockey") Assists Per Touch

Trae accumulated +14%
more assists per touch
0.121 0.121 0.121
0.119
0.106 0.106 0.105 0.105 0.104

0.103 0.102 0.102 0.101
0.098 0.097
0.095
0.091
0.087 0.086
0.083
0.078 0.078 0.077 0.077 0.077 0.076
0.073
0.050
Chris Paul
Luka Doncic
Fred VanVleet
Russell Westbrook
Damian Lillard
DeMar DeRozan
Jamal Murray
Ricky Rubio
Devin Booker
Bradley Beal
LeBron James
Kyle Lowry
Paul George
Ben Simmons
Kawhi Leonard
Jayson Tatum
Trae Young
De'Aaron Fox
Jimmy Butler
Kemba Walker
Donovan Mitchell
James Harden
Ja Morant
Nikola Jokic
CJ McCollum
Malcolm Brogdon
Brandon Ingram
Sources:
NBA.com/stats
Second Spectrum
Synergy 13
• Building on the prior slide, if you broaden the “assist” category to include passes that lead to a shot, foul, or turnover, you end up with the NBA’s
stat known as “Potential Assists”. Potential Assists is a more wholistic way of looking at how a player’s passes might lead to high-value offensive
possessions.
• On this metric Trae is still near the top of the league, and once again, ahead of Luka. This makes sense considering Trae’s teammates converted
FGAs at a league-worst rate in 2019-20 (which costs Trae assists in the box score) while Dallas’ shooters were well above average.
Potential Assists + Secondary ("Hockey") Assists Per Touch
Trae accumulated +16%
more potential
0.327 assists per touch
0.317 0.312
0.306
0.294
0.272 0.270 0.269 0.265
0.264 0.264 0.262
0.254 0.252 0.248
0.246 0.245
0.222 0.220
0.211
0.198 0.193
0.186 0.185 0.183 0.182 0.180
0.125
Chris Paul
Devin Booker
Luka Doncic
Damian Lillard
Ricky Rubio
Kyle Lowry
Bradley Beal
LeBron James
Russell Westbrook
Paul George
Trae Young
DeMar DeRozan
Ben Simmons
De'Aaron Fox
Fred VanVleet
Kawhi Leonard
Jamal Murray
Jayson Tatum
Kemba Walker
Donovan Mitchell
Ja Morant
Jimmy Butler
CJ McCollum
Nikola Jokic
James Harden
Malcolm Brogdon
Brandon Ingram
Sources:
NBA.com/stats
Second Spectrum
Synergy 14
• As a final point on the per touch metrics, it’s worth highlighting that basketball is a team sport and not all touches are created equal. Trae dribbling up
the court and taking a deep 35-foot 3-point shot before any other teammates touch the ball can potentially be viewed as negative for team chemistry
(although Trae is hardly an outlier when it comes to this play). Moving the ball and letting other players get touches, even if the ball ends up back in
Trae’s hands for a shot, could result in improved outcomes by Trae’s teammates due to a feeling of involvement in the offense. This is one area where
Luka gets rave reviews and Trae doesn’t.
• While Luka does pass the ball more often than Trae (~17% more passes per game), a big part of that is due to total touches. On a per touch basis Luka
only passes the ball 6% more often than Trae does. And although Luka passes the ball more than Trae, he still trails many other offense initiators in pass
rate. Jokic passed it 19% more than Luka did, and CP3 passed it 12% more. Based on this it seems hard to argue that Luka is a ball-movement wizard and
Trae is a ball-stopper – the truth is they’re much closer to each other than they are to the best in the NBA at moving the ball.
• But passing needs context – it depends on coaching scheme (e.g., Mark Jackson vs Steve Kerr in GS, or Dwayne Casey vs Nick Nurse in TOR), and it
depends on capabilities of teammates. It’s not surprising that Trae passed less given the quality of his teammates this season.
Passes Per Touch
Jokic passed Luka passed +6% more CP3 passed
+19% more often per touch +12% more
0.781 0.774 0.770
0.731 0.728 0.726 0.725 0.723 0.701
0.692 0.685 0.684 0.678
0.651 0.644 0.632 0.627 0.624 0.624
0.612 0.611 0.602 0.585 0.585
0.581 0.565
0.545 0.532
Chris Paul
Luka Doncic
Devin Booker
Fred VanVleet
Russell Westbrook
Jamal Murray
Damian Lillard
DeMar DeRozan
Ricky Rubio
Bradley Beal
Paul George
Ben Simmons
Kyle Lowry
LeBron James
Jayson Tatum
Kawhi Leonard
Jimmy Butler
Kemba Walker
De'Aaron Fox
Trae Young
Donovan Mitchell
Nikola Jokic
James Harden
Ja Morant
CJ McCollum
Malcolm Brogdon
Brandon Ingram
Sources:
NBA.com/stats
Second Spectrum
Synergy 15
1 Trae’s 2019-20 Per 100 Possession Statistics are Historically Impressive: A
All-Time Search Criteria:

Points Per 100 Possessions: > or = to 30 The purpose of the per 100 possessions comparison is to
reduce the impact of pace and discrepancies in playing time
Assists Per 100 Possessions: > or = to 10
True Shooting Percentage: > or = to 58%
Note: True shooting percentage (TS%) is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account FGs, 3PM, and free throws
Sources: Basketball Reference
16
1 Trae’s 2019-20 Per 100 Possession Statistics are Historically Impressive: B

Keep in mind that Trae

and Luka accomplished
this at the ages of 20-21
17
1 Trae’s 2019-20 Per 100 Possession Statistics are Historically Impressive: C


accomplished this at
the age of 21
18
1 Trae’s 2019-20 Per 100 Possession Statistics are Historically Impressive: D


accomplished this at
the age of 21
19
1 True Shooting Efficiency in a Relative Historical Context
• I tend to lean towards the view that scoring efficiency is more important as an absolute metric when viewed historically. Yes, the game has evolved, and players
have become more efficient over time due to an emphasis being put on more efficient and higher-value shot attempts (free throws, layups, three pointers); but
the simple fact is, a player who scores more efficiently is more valuable and will therefore generate more points for their team. For a non-basketball example
consider Tyson Gay’s 100-meter time of 9.69 seconds in 2009 vs Jesse Owens’ 10.3 seconds in 1936. Jesse Owens was the fastest person in his era, but that
would be irrelevant in a race today against Tyson Gay despite Tyson not even being the fastest person in the world currently.
• That said, it can still be helpful to look at a player’s relative true shooting percentage (rTS% or TS+) to understand how that player performed when compared
to his peers in the season in which they played. rTS% or TS+ tells you how many percentage points a player’s TS% was above the league average for the time
period in which they played (e.g., an rTS% of 2% means the player’s TS% was +2% above the league average).
• One pushback against Trae’s historically impressive season is that his rTS% was only +3%, meaning that while he was very efficient by historical standards
(particularly at high volume), he was only +3% more efficient when compared to the league average in 2019-20. It’s undeniable that there have been many
instances of a player achieving a higher rTS%, but there’s something to be said about Trae achieving a rTS% of +3% in a season in which he had possibly one
of the worst supporting cast of teammates ever. Further, Trae’s rTS% of +3% was higher than Luka’s +2% while being double-teamed at far higher rates.
• The below scatterplot of Points Per 100 Possessions vs rTS% shows every season since 1970 in which a player averaged at least 15 PPG and 48% TS% (>2,100
data points) - it is clear that both Trae and Luka are among the best in history when factoring in their combination of efficiency and volume scoring.
Points Per 100 Possessions vs rTS%

16.0% Stephen Curry
14.0% 2015-16
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0% Trae Young
4.0%
2019-20
rTS%
2.0%
0.0% Luka Doncic
-2.0% 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.02019-20 45.0 50.0
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
Points Per 100 Possessions

20
2 TRAE’S DEFENSIVE IMPACT: PART II
21
2 Introduction
• In the introduction to the prior section I touched on the criticisms I received from some readers regarding my framing of Trae’s
offensive and defensive contributions (or lack thereof when it comes to defense). This was particularly true of my framing of Trae’s
defensive impact; since I used “worthless” defensive metrics like Defensive Rating (DRtg) and Defended Field Goal Percentage
(DFG%), my argument that Trae is not the worst defender in the NBA or the worst in NBA history was somehow considered biased
and/or inaccurate*.
• In this section I lay out these aforementioned advanced defensive impact metrics, as well as why I believe they are not the holy grail
of predicting defensive impact/ability.
• Further, I believe there are credible arguments as to why Trae’s defensive issues are overstated, and that there is a path to defensive
improvement despite the overwhelming narrative by the fans and media that a 22-year-old, 3rd year player can’t improve defensively.
*This claim is despite the fact that if you compare the DRtg and DFG% percentile rank of the players I singled out in the long-form report to their corresponding percentile rank in D-
RPM and D-PIPM, the results are very similar and result in similar conclusions.
22
2 Advanced Defensive Impact Metrics Tell A Similar Story: Trae is Currently a Bottom Tier Defender
Sources:
2 Advanced Defensive Impact Metrics: Trae vs. Luka
• The prior page is only a snapshot of the worst 25 players in the 2019-20 season based on D-PIPM, D-RPM, and D-RAPTOR so it doesn’t show how
Luka ranked. While Trae clearly ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive impact, Luka fared better. But better doesn’t mean good, and
lately it seems like any attempt at objectively pointing out a weakness or flaw in Luka’s game is met with intense opposition. However, that
opposition doesn’t change the fact that Luka is not an average or good defender yet either.
• Also, as much as these advanced metrics attempt to isolate individual performance, that’s nearly impossible to achieve with NBA defense for
many reasons that I’ll discuss later. As a result, Luka’s defensive abilities and impact metrics definitely benefitted from having an elite defensive
coach and multiple “plus defenders” in the primary rotation. On the contrary, Trae’s metrics are likely made worse by the fact that most of
Atlanta’s core rotation players were first- or second-year players with below league-average defensive impact.
• And to be clear, I am not arguing that Luka is as bad as Trae is on defense, far from it. Trae’s defensive issues stem from his lack of effort and
small frame while Luka’s issues are due to his slow lateral movement; but given the physical differences, there is an easier path to near league-
average defense for Luka than there is for Trae. Value NBA Rank
Luka Trae Luka Trae
D-PIPM -1.12 -3.69 328 / 397 397 / 397
D-RPM -0.90 -6.00 263 / 397 397 / 397
D-RAPTOR -1.18 -3.48 280 / 397 383 / 397
Simple Average -1.07 -4.39 290 / 397 392 / 397
Atlanta vs Dallas Rotation Comparison (D-RPM) 2.60
0.70 0.90 0.90 1.10

0.55
-0.70 -1.10 -1.10

-1.70 -1.40
-2.00 -1.90
-2.80
Dallas Avg
Damian Jones
John Collins
Kristaps Porzingis
Kevin Huerter
Deandre Hunter
Maxi Kleber
Seth Curry
Dorian Finney-Smith
Cam Reddish
Deandre Bembry
Atlanta Avg
Delon Wright
Tim Hardaway
Sources:
2 Defensive Impact Metrics Are Not the Holy Grail Despite “Blog Boys” Thinking They Are (1)
• You don’t have to look very hard to find groups of people on the internet who believe that defensive impact metrics like D-PIPM, D-RPM, D-BPM, D-RAPTOR, etc.,
are gospel when evaluating a player’s individual defense (see: Reddit and Twitter). According to them, Trae ranks last in these +/- metrics so therefore he’s the
worst defender in the NBA and is not a player you can build a good team around. But it should be obvious to anyone who’s ever played basketball at any level, or
has even watched a professional basketball game, that these sorts of all encompassing/black-box regression-based statistics can’t accurately measure a player’s
defensive ability.
• For starters, isolating a single player’s defensive impact is inherently difficult within the context of NBA defense given how interconnected and communication-
based a defense is. A missed defensive assignment because of a communication breakdown or a defender hedging a screen for an extra split second thereby giving
the primary defender time to recover are nearly impossible to capture with measurable data.
• Second, coaching and defensive schemes are incredibly important. Is your scheme to crash the offensive boards thereby risking transition baskets, or is everyone
focused on getting back on defense? Are your perimeter defenders focused on funneling players into the paint where your rim protecting big-man is waiting, or are
you playing a zone and willing to give up perimeter shots? Are you willing to let the superstar player score 50 points so long as the role players “don’t beat you”, or
are you trying to neutralize the star player via double-teams? Is the coach effective at hiding weaker defenders, and are they using each player in a role that
maximizes their abilities? (e.g., some players are good team defenders but weak in man-to-man situations)
• Third, surrounding teammates can impact another player’s individual defense just by their presence. Offensive players would probably think twice about posting
up Trae on a switch or driving the lane if Rudy Gobert was waiting in the paint rather than Alex Len or Damian Jones; instead, they might settle for a lower
percentage contested three-point attempt, thereby inflating Trae’s defensive impact.
• But you don’t have to take my word for it – below is NBA analytics pioneer/enthusiast Daryl Morey admitting that there are no publicly available defensive
metrics that can accurately assess an individual player’s defensive impact. Similarly, ESPN’s Jackie MacMullan recently confirmed the same idea after having
spoken to many people around the league.
“Defensive numbers are very subjective…every person

I've ever talked to when I'm writing stories, they're
like any defensive metrics you have, don’t even use
them because they don't really tell you what they're
supposed to tell you. They're really fraught with peril”
– Jackie MacMullan on Bill Simmons’ Podcast

(11/25/2020)
Sources:
https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/8c1x8q/im_daryl_morey_general_manager_of_the_houston/
https://np.reddit.com/r/rockets/comments/895qdx/houston_rockets_are_the_1_seed_ama/?sort=top
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPsI8PzWK_Q 25
2 Defensive Impact Metrics Are Not the Holy Grail Despite “Blog Boys” Thinking They Are (2)
• An individual player scoring a basket, making a pass, setting a screen, or drawing a double-team is easily measurable and therefore the offensive
impact metrics are fairly accurate at assessing who the most valuable offensive players are. However, in my view, the same cannot be said for the
defensive impact metrics. As an example, below are some notable and clear inconsistencies in the data:
Average of D-PIPM and D-RPM
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Good Defenders
Eric Bledsoe 2.73 1.63 - -0.52 0.14 1.31 0.68
Jaylen Brown - - - -0.10 1.11 0.15 -0.13
Anthony Davis 0.93 3.39 1.37 3.39 3.03 2.71 1.44
Kris Dunn - - - 0.32 -0.11 -0.26 2.91
Ben Simmons - - - - 1.57 0.29 0.59
Klay Thompson 0.27 -0.13 -0.39 -0.57 -0.11 -1.59 -
Bad Defenders
Nikola Jokic - - 3.25 1.47 1.60 1.81 2.14
Kevin Love 0.90 0.97 1.53 1.51 0.70 - -0.45
Dirk Nowitzki 1.20 -1.01 0.40 0.78 0.45 -0.32 -
Hassan Whiteside - 1.81 2.82 2.07 2.82 3.07 2.00
• Eric Bledsoe, a back-to-back All Defensive team selection, was ranked 377th out of 520 players in D-RPM in 2019-20, and 276th out of 513
players in 2018-19. As for D-PIPM, he ranked 36th this season, behind teammates Wesley Matthews and Donte DiVincenzo.
• Jaylen Brown, Kris Dunn, and Ben Simmons, all considered to be near-elite defenders, have been ranked near league-average according
to an average of their D-PIPM and D-RPM metrics (although Dunn finally got the respect he deserves from the metrics in 2019-20).
• Klay Thompson, one of the most important defensive players on a 3-time championship winning team and one of the best 2-way players
in the NBA, has only had one season of positive plus-minus in the last 7 seasons.
• Meanwhile, defensively challenged big-men like Nikola Jokic and Hassan Whiteside rated near the top of the NBA in their defensive
contributions on a plus-minus basis, ahead of Anthony Davis (who by the way had his best defensive season ever yet had his 2nd lowest
plus-minus in 6 seasons). It would also be very surprising if Kevin Love or 37-40 year old Dirk Nowitzki were actually league-average
defenders like their advanced metrics suggest.
• Obviously, any regression-based statistic is going to have inconsistencies for X out of every 20 data points, but these are glaring enough
inconsistencies for me to be highly skeptical of the usefulness of these defensive metrics when applied to individual players over a single season.
Sources:
RPM (1): https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/10740818/introducing-real-plus-minus
RPM (2): http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm 26
Daryl Morey, Mike Zarren, and Zach Lowe at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in 2018 discussing RPM: https://youtu.be/jL2ZSMQOOS4?t=1168
So, How Does This Relate to Trae Young?
27
2 Defensive Impact vs Defensive Ability
• Despite the issues with defensive statistics that I highlighted previously, there’s no denying that Trae Young is currently a bottom tier defender in
the NBA. But one important distinction that needs to be highlighted is the difference between defensive impact and defensive ability. Trae might
rank near the bottom of the NBA in defensive impact based on a collection of metrics, but that doesn’t mean he’s the worst defender in the NBA
based on ability (see also: Bradley Beal). This distinction is important because one of the primary drivers of Trae’s significantly negative defensive
impact ratings is his complete lack of defensive effort. And effort can be easily improved.
“As long as you play with effort on defense, you can be a good defender. There's no secret. If you
play hard and give effort you can do some pretty good things on the defensive end“ – Shane Battier
• In fact, effort is so important that if I had to breakdown the main components of playing defense it would probably look something like this:
DEFENSE = (50% EFFORT) + (40% CAPABILITY) + (10% COACHING/SCHEME)
EFFORT = (CARING) + (HUSTLING) + (DISCIPLINE)
CAPABILITY = (PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES) + (ATHLETICISM) + (BASKETBALL IQ)
• Having spent considerable time watching Atlanta Hawks games in 2019-20 it was clear that Trae had little interest in putting in the effort
required to play decent defense – he rarely got into a defensive stance, he didn’t fight hard to get over or around screens, his close-outs on
shooters was lacking hustle, and he wasn’t very active with his hands in terms of disrupting passing lanes.
• But it’s difficult to know if Trae truly didn’t care about playing defense or if it was an intentional strategy to conserve energy influenced by his
enormous offensive burden – if Trae wasn’t superhuman on offense, the Hawks likely had no chance of winning (we’ve seen other offensive star
players employ a similar strategy recently: e.g., Lebron in Cleveland, James Harden in Houston, and Bradley Beal in Washington this season).
• Further, it’s not as if the Hawks were an amazing team that only lost because Trae got exploited on defense – but rather, Trae was just one of
many poor defenders in the rotation. So, given he had no help on offense, and no teammates picking up the slack defensively (Atlanta’s rim
protectors were Alex Len and Damian Jones), it’s hard to fully blame Trae for his lack of effort on defense. In essence, what’s the point of trying?
• The good news for Trae and Atlanta is that those issues are fixable if Trae decides to start caring about defense. The bad news is that it’s not a
guarantee that he will flip the switch and start caring. Having a coach or collection of veteran teammates who hold him accountable, or a winning
culture could go a long way towards changing that. (Here’s an interesting older video breaking down some clips of Trae’s defense)
• Effort aside, Trae clearly lacks many of the physical attributes that are needed to be a good defender, primarily height, length, strength, and
athleticism. But lacking those features doesn’t mean he can’t become at least a passable defender; plus, Trae isn’t as small as many make it seem
– he’s not Isaiah Thomas.
Source:
Shane Battier Quote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7op--wHVEIk 28
2 Trae Young Comparisons: Pre-Draft Measurements (1)
• It’s well documented that Trae’s physical measurements limit his defensive abilities, but it remains to be seen if these limitations will fully
prohibit him from becoming adequate on defense. Looking through recent draft history for players with comparable measurements
confirms that there are plenty of examples of players who have defied their physical limitations to become at least passable on defense.
• Of course, there are some obvious differences between Trae and some players in the below list, specifically athleticism, strength, and
wingspan. But while the spotlight on Trae’s deficiencies shines bright, people often ignore his quickness and standing reach, both of which
are at least in-line with the average of the players below.
• And while the Steph Curry comparisons have been exhausted at this point, Trae does measure up similarly. Their drafted weights were
almost identical despite a 1.5-year age difference, and while Curry holds a 1.5-inch height advantage, their wingspans are only separated
by half an inch.
• The point of the Curry comparison is only to illustrate what’s possible for Trae given his physical limitations. Despite similar initial concerns
regarding his size, strength and speed, Steph is now an average defender that makes up for his deficiencies with quick hands and a high
basketball IQ. Trae is quicker than Steph ever was and has a similarly elite offensive IQ so it seems reasonable to think Trae could improve
to become passable on defense assuming the effort is drastically improved.
Player Weight (lbs) Height (no shoes) Wingspan Standing Reach 2019-20 DPIPM 3-Year Avg DPIPM 2019-20 DRPM 3-Year Avg DRPM
Kyrie Irving 191 6' 1" 3/4 6' 4" 8' 3" -0.20 -1.09 0.46 -1.06
Dennis Schroder 165 6' 1" 6' 7" 3/4 8' 2" 1.04 -0.70 0.70 -1.27
Jamal Murray 207 6' 3" 6' 6" 1/2 8' 1" 0.01 -0.63 1.50 -0.67
Stephen Curry 181 6' 2" 6' 3" 1/2 8' 1" 0.64 0.16 0.85 0.35
Darren Collison 166 6' 0" 1/4 6' 3" 8' 0" 1/2 -0.46 -0.71 -0.42 -0.54
Monte Morris 175 6' 1" 1/4 6' 4" 8' 0" 1/2 -0.71 -0.52 0.40 0.23
Damian Lillard 189 6' 1" 3/4 6' 7" 3/4 8' 0" -1.93 -0.44 -2.10 -1.02
Trae Young 178 6' 0" 1/2 6' 3" 7' 11" 1/2 -3.69 -3.55 -6.00 -5.39
Norris Cole 174 6' 0" 1/4 6' 2" 1/4 7' 11" 1/2 - - - -
Mike Conley 175 5' 11" 3/4 6' 5" 3/4 7' 10" 1/2 -0.27 0.01 0.20 -0.13
DJ Augustin 172 5' 10" 6' 3" 1/2 7' 10" 1/2 -0.07 -0.31 2.20 0.22
Chris Paul 178 5' 11" 3/4 6' 4" 1/2 7' 9" 0.14 0.93 2.00 1.97
Kyle Lowry 185 6' 0" 6' 2" 7' 9" 0.82 0.86 1.50 1.45
Kemba Walker 184 5' 11" 1/2 6' 3" 1/2 7' 7" 1/2 -1.35 -0.77 -1.40 -1.13
Isaiah Thomas 186 5' 8" 3/4 6' 1" 3/4 7' 7" 1/2 -2.45 -2.45 -4.20 -4.20
Tony Parker 177 6' 2" 6' 4" - - - - -
Fred VanVleet 195 5' 11" 6' 2" - 0.60 0.50 0.90 0.70
Sources:
NBADraft.net
Draft Express
https://www.bball-index.com/2019-20-impact-metrics/ 29
2 Trae Young Comparisons: Pre-Draft Measurements (2)
• Continuing with the theme from the prior page – while Trae’s height and wingspan are near the lower end of the comparable players, his
standing reach is in-line with the average. In fact, Trae’s standing reach is 1-inch higher than Mike Conley and 2.5-inches higher than Chris Paul,
two players that are considered above average to elite guard defenders.
• This is a noteworthy point because while a longer wingspan is helpful for keeping defenders in front of you and disrupting passing lanes, a higher
standing reach is more important than either wingspan or height when it comes to contesting shots or securing rebounds.
• And as a last point – Trae’s defensive potential is often compared to Isaiah Thomas or Lou Williams, two notoriously poor defenders. When it
comes to the Thomas comparison it’s worth highlighting that Trae is nearly 4-inches taller with a similar 4-inch higher standing reach. In fact,
Trae’s height and standing reach are closer to the players at the higher end of the comp list than to they are to Thomas. Sometimes I think the
people who criticize Trae’s size the most are those who haven’t actually watched him play in the NBA – he’s not Muggsy Bogues.
Standing Reach (Inches)

1.5-inch delta 4.0-inch delta
99.00
98.00 97.75
97.00 97.00
96.50 96.50
96.00
95.50 95.50
94.50 94.50
93.00 93.00
91.50 91.50
No Data
Kyrie Dennis Jamal Stephen Darren Monte Damian Trae Norris Mike DJ Chris Kyle Kemba Isaiah Tony Fred Avg Since
Irving Schroder Murray Curry Collison Morris Lillard Young Cole Conley Augustin Paul Lowry Walker Thomas Parker VanVleet 2000
Sources:
NBADraft.net
Draft Express
30
2 Individual Player Examples of Defensive Impact Improvement: D-RPM
• While I do question the accuracy and validity of the advanced defensive impact metrics, analyzing the career trajectories of a couple of recent
defensively challenged players shows some interesting trends that are somewhat encouraging for Trae Young’s defensive potential going
forward. Specifically, players like DJ Augustin, Kyrie Irving, Jamal Murray, Dennis Schroder, and JJ Redick were all criticized for their defensive
abilities early in their careers yet each of these players are now at least near league-average defensively according to D-RPM.
• But there seems to be a “chicken and egg” paradox as it relates to these defensive impact improvements – each player’s career high in D-RPM
appears to coincide with them either being on an improved defensive team or in a winning situation:
• Augustin’s Orlando Magic made the playoffs as the 8th seed and were top 10 in DRtg this season.
• Kyrie’s career high occurred in 2018-19 while on the Boston Celtics (7th in DRtg) while surrounded by other good defensive players like
Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Al Horford.
• Dennis Schroder played for the 5th seed OKC Thunder this season (7th in DRtg) next to Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous Alexander, and in front
of Steven Adams – all good defenders.
• JJ Redick’s best rating came with the LA Clippers as the primary guard next to Chris Paul and in front of Deandre Jordan.
• So then the question becomes – did these players significantly improve their defense over time, or did they benefit individually/statistically from
being around other good defensive teammates, in good defensive schemes, and in winning situations? The truth is probably a bit of both.
Career Improvement in D-RPM
5.84
4.51
3.50 3.49 3.45 3.44 3.40 3.37 3.14 2.84 2.79
2.20 2.30
1.50 1.10
0.90 0.70 0.80
0.46 0.26
-0.20 -0.48
-1.95 -1.69
-2.21 -2.54 -2.34
-3.03 -2.70 -3.11
-3.64 -3.70 -3.32
DJ Gary Bojan Kyrie Jamal Tim Dennis JJ Khris Eric Joe

Augustin Harris Bogdanovic Irving Murray Hardaway Jr Schroder Redick Middleton Gordon Harris
Lowest 2 Year Avg D-RPM Highest Career D-RPM D-RPM Improvement
Sources: B-Ball Index (https://www.bball-index.com/) – Based on available data from 2013-2020 31

2 Individual Player Examples of Defensive Impact Improvement: D-PIPM
• The same analysis can be done using D-PIPM as well, and the results here show a similar trend for other small-ish guards like Kemba
Walker and Damian Lillard. The one difference here is that while most of the career high D-RPMs in the prior slide occurred in the
2019-20 NBA season, the below improvement data is less linear. As an example, Kemba’s highest D-PIPM rating over the last 7-years
occurred in 2013-14 (the Bobcats were 7th in DRtg) rather than 2019-20.
• However, one good example from below (as well as on the prior page) is Tim Hardaway Jr. THJ went from a losing situation with the
NY Knicks to a playoff contending Dallas Mavericks team that played hard, was well-coached, and had other good defenders (Dorian
Finney-Smith, Kristaps Porzingis, Maxi Kleber, etc). This improved situation allowed him to achieve a career high defensive impact
rating in both D-RPM and D-PIPM – it’s likely that this improvement was due to a combination of a positive winning environment/
defensive situation, as well as a renewed defensive focus on his part. This could be an analogous trajectory that Trae follows.
Career Improvement in D-PIPM

3.60 3.44
3.02
2.77
2.41 2.51 2.48 2.43
2.14 2.17 2.10
1.59
1.04
0.42 0.50 0.50
0.17
-0.30 -0.14
-0.42
-1.19 -1.30
-1.67
-1.98 -1.98 -2.01
-2.35 -2.26 -2.24
-2.81
Khris Kemba Dennis Damian Bojan Evan JJ Gary Tim Eric

Middleton Walker Schroder Lillard Bogdanovic Fournier Redick Harris Hardaway Jr Gordon
Lowest 2 Year Avg D-PIPM Highest Career D-PIPM D-PIPM Improvement
Sources: B-Ball Index (https://www.bball-index.com/) – Based on available data from 2013-2020 32

2 A Case Study of A Different Atlanta Hawks Point Guard: Dennis Schroder (1)
• In 2019-20, Dennis Schroder was a solid defensive guard – he set career highs in both D-RPM (+0.70) and D-PIPM (+1.04) – and the eye-test backed it up. He
was a pesky defender that picked up opposing ball-handlers full court, he got into the jersey of many bigger guards/wings, and he fought hard around and
through screens; at one point he was even leading the NBA in defensive win shares among bench players.
• But Schroder didn’t always play like this – in fact, just 2 years ago many considered him possibly the worst defender in the entire NBA.
Hoopshype (January 18, 2018)

• “However, Schroder has remained a defensive liability for the Hawks. His defensive rating on ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus is behind every point guard in the NBA
besides Emanuel Mudiay.”
• “Atlanta has allowed 111.3 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court, which is the most out of anyone on the squad.”
• “Opposing shooters have had significantly more success when he is guarding them. The difference in field goal percentage on shot attempts less than 10 feet
from the basket when he is their defender compared to when he is not is worse than all but all but one player in the league.”
Bleacher Report (July 18, 2018)

• “The Atlanta Hawks are reportedly struggling to find a trade market for point guard Dennis Schroder because of his inefficient three-point shooting and
‘atrocious defense’."
ATLALLDAY (May 16, 2018)

• “On the defensive value of the floor, Schroder is known to be below-average at best. He doesn’t have the foot speed to keep up with the quicker guards in the
Eastern Conference, as well as being too light to fight through screens, which he doesn’t really try to do anyway.”
• “The advanced numbers tell us that Schroder is an extreme negative on defense, posting a -2.2 defensive box plus-minus and posting his second-lowest mark
on defensive win-shares. Simply put, Schroder struggles on the defensive end of the floor to keep up with the likes of John Wall, Kyrie Irving, and the other quick
guards in the Eastern Conference. These struggles don’t bode well for Schroder’s potential trade value, as teams won’t take his contract with his defensive
problems that have been evident for his entire career.”
Sources:
https://hoopshype.com/2018/01/18/atlanta-hawks-dennis-schroder-analysis-offense-defense/
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2786642-dennis-schroder-trade-rumors-3-point-shooting-atrocious-defense-hurt-value
https://atlallday.com/2018/05/16/evaluating-dennis-schroders-trade-value-around-nba/ 33
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/dennis-schroder-boosting-thunder-with-career-year-making-strong-case-for-sixth-man-award/
2 A Case Study of A Different Atlanta Hawks Point Guard: Dennis Schroder (2)
• From the 2016-17 season to the 2019-20 season, Dennis Schroder improved his defensive impact metrics from a near league-worst
to an above average level, and his reputation seemingly changed overnight.
D-RPM D-PIPM 3.40 3.02
0.70 1.04
-1.98
-2.70
2016-18 2019-20 Improvement
• His contributions to the OKC Thunder in 2019-20 were enormously helpful in them reaching the playoffs as the 5th seed after trading
away Russell Westbrook and Paul George in the off-season; and his improvements on offense and defense resulted in him finishing
2nd in 6th man of the year voting (he received 37% of the 1st place votes). Ultimately, he was acquired via trade by the defending
champion LA Lakers to be a key part of their rotation just 2 years after he was considered “untradable” because of “atrocious
defense”.
• Analyzing why this career development occurred is helpful within the context of Trae Young’s career given the parallels regarding
their defensive struggles and physical limitations. Here are a few important points that might explain the drastic improvement:
• Schroder was still a young developing player – he was only 26 years old this past season and was 24 when he was traded to
OKC. While it’s common for fans and the media to label players quickly, often times young players (particularly point guards)
take longer to develop.
• In his 2 seasons as a starter in Atlanta, the team won just 41% of their games, including just 24 games in 2017-18. The Hawks
were clearly going through a transitional period having recently lost or traded four All-Stars: Al Horford, Paul Millsap, Kyle
Korver, and Jeff Teague, and weren’t exactly focused on creating a winning environment. Again, what’s the point of trying?
• In OKC Dennis was paired up in the backcourt with Chris Paul, an elite defensive PG and a notorious competitor. Other “plus
defenders” like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Steven Adams, Lu Dort, and Nerlens Noel rounded out the primary rotations that
Schroder was apart of. Not only was he surrounded with defensive-minded players, but he was also in a situation focused on
winning (as mentioned, OKC was the 5th seed in the Western Conference and is one of the winningest franchises since 2010).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jL2ZSMQOOS4
3 CLOSING THOUGHTS
35
3 Closing Thoughts
• Trae Young’s offensive numbers and on-court impact are hard to dispute both in absolute, and relative to Luka Doncic, so I won’t belabor the
point. Instead, I’ll just repeat what I’ve proclaimed multiple times already: Trae Young is just as impactful on offense as Luka Doncic.
• As for Trae’s defense, former NBA player Jalen Rose once said this regarding statistics, “all numbers can be manipulated…it’s like a nickname,
once somebody calls you something then you start telling them different reasons why you have that nickname”. A similar thing often happens
with NBA player stereotypes – once a player gets called a “chucker”, a “bad defender”, or a “locker-room cancer” it becomes the prevailing view
regardless of how accurate it is. I think this has happened with Trae Young and his defensive ability.
• Yes, Trae is currently a bottom tier defender, but there are clear ways for him to improve on that end of the court if he wants to…starting with
effort and by cutting down on plays like this. And while Trae is on the smaller side in terms of his physical attributes, he’s not too dissimilar from
other point guards who have become competent defenders in the NBA. These views run contrary to the popular narrative that his physical
limitations will always render him an awful defender and incapable of being the best player on a championship-level team. I think this is a hastily
applied narrative for a 21-year-old player who is still maturing both mentally and physically, who is playing the toughest defensive position in the
NBA, and who is already one of the most impactful offensive weapons in the NBA.
P.S. Please enjoy this video of Trae pouring in 50-points in a win against the
Eastern Conference Champion Miami Heat in February
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ql0qLKXaM4
36
APPENDIX
37
1 B-Ball Index Rankings: Playmaking Talent (Definitions)
PASSING CREATION VOLUME
Passing Creation Volume analyzes a player’s volume of playmaking contributions to their teammates through their passing. This metric looks at passes a
player makes per 75 possessions on the court offensively that lead to a shot from a teammate.
PASSING EFFICIENCY
Passing Efficiency analyzes players’ playmaking ability with an eye toward efficient use of possessions (not turning it over) and time (with the ball in their
hands), relative to the value they’re adding through their passes. Players with more Bad Pass Turnovers and players holding onto the ball longer tend to
have higher value added from their passes to shots, so this metric adjusts for those to identify the players truly taking care of the ball well (and using time
efficiently) to add value.
PASSING VERSATILITY
Passing Versatility analyzes a player’s playmaking ability by quantifying how full the passing repertoire is for a player, through looking at Synergy passing
data from scoring play types as well as SportRadar data on assist locations. This allows us to gauge who is has the most range in their pass types and is a
more well-rounded passer. A player may have excellent performance within their passing style but not have the range as a playmaker to make other kinds
of passes (kick outs on drives, etc.). This metric identifies that spread of playmaking versatility and rewards players who are more versatile.
PASSING CREATION QUALITY

Passing Creation Quality analyzes playmaking ability through the quality of scoring opportunities a player creates for their teammates through their
passing. Higher caliber playmakers tend to create opportunities for teammates that are easier than a non-playmaker. Part of that comes from offensive
scoring ability, part comes from vision to see the right player to pass to, a part is the execution of those passes to be both accurate, so the ball isn’t turned
over, and placed well, so the shooting player doesn’t need to spend time pulling the ball up from their shoelaces or down from the sky and lose their
would-be openness on a shot. This all manifests into the shot quality created. Data used to calculate Passing Creation Quality includes location of assists, as
well as conversion rates on potential assists for players relative to rates for those same players passed to from other teammates and league average on
types of scoring looks.
SCORING GRAVITY
Scoring Gravity is a component of analyzing playmaking ability calculated using the same Gravity data referenced in the Perimeter Shooting section, just
averaged by Rim, Midrange, and 3PT ranges. In helping to quantify a more context-neutral playmaking talent metric, recognizing players who bring their
offense with them and naturally open up scoring opportunities for teammates rather than requiring Xs and Os to facilitate that process is important.
PLAYMAKING TALENT
Playmaking Talent grade analyzes a player’s playmaking for teammates through their ratings in Passing Creation Volume, Passing Creation Quality, Passing
Versatility, Passing Efficiency, and Scoring Gravity (which has a small weight). As designed, the metric is about half measuring capability and volume of
playmaking and half measuring effectiveness playmaking for others. This metric is designed to be as context-neutral as possible, enabling values more
accurately capturing true playmaking talent and resulting in stability from year to year, even with players changing teams.
Sources: B-Ball Index (https://www.bball-index.com/glossary/) 38

1 B-Ball Index Rankings: Perimeter Shooting Talent (Definitions)
AVG. 3PT SHOT DISTANCE
These values use SportRadar player tracking data to capture average distance (in feet) from the rim for 3-point attempts. Players with the highest values
with have higher percentiles. You’ll see a mix of players heaving the ball (like some centers) and guys like Trae Young and Dame Lillard at the top of the
leaderboard.
3PT SHOT QUALITY

3-point shot quality looks at data on openness, whether a shot is self created or not, location on the court and internal estimates of player movement on 3s
(the same used for stationary vs movement shooter designations for our offensive archetypes) to estimate an overall shot quality on 3-point attempts.
OPENNESS RATING
Openness Ratings show a z-score value estimating the degree of openness a player has on average for their 3-point attempts. Input data from
NBA.com/stats is used, along with some internal calculations (to try to increase accuracy), to derive these values.
3PT SHOT MAKING

Shot Making ratings look at 3-point shooting above expectations based on shot quality (as described above). This answers, “Given the player’s degree of
difficulty, how well are they shooting?” If you see a player with a high 3PT% but an average Shot Making rating, you’re likely looking at a player in a
favorable situation in terms of quality of shots that’s reaping the benefits of their environment. Likewise, we may see a player with a similar 3PT% but
lower Shot Quality, that ends up having a higher Shot Making rating.
3PT SHOT CREATION

Shot Creation rating looks at a player’s tendencies to create their own 3-point attempts. Percentage of 3-pointers unassisted, along with unassisted 3-
pointers per 100 possessions on the court, are leveraged for these calculations. Smaller samples for both inputs are stabilized using a padding method. 3PT
Shot Creation does not look at proficiency. This is purely capturing whether or not the player is creating their own shot on 3s.
PERIMETER SHOOTING TALENT GRADE

Perimeter Shooting talent grade leverages Shot Making and Shot Creation values as inputs, as well as accounting for volume to regress down smaller
samples. This seeks to capture how well of a 3-point shooter a player is in a neutral environment.
For example, Will Barton and TJ Warren have the same exact 3PT% but very different Perimeter Shooting grades (A- for Barton, D+ for Warren). Barton is
achieving his 3PT% on a higher degree of difficulty (looking at his Shot Quality rating), thus has a higher Shot Making rating. He’s also creating 3-point looks
at a far better rate than Warren (A vs F ratings in 3PT Shot Creation). Those two factors combined result in Barton having an A- while Warren has a D+, and
would tell us that Barton is the more talented 3-point shooter (that should perform more highly in a neutral environment).

1 B-Ball Index Rankings: Finishing Talent (Definitions)
GETTING TO RIM RATING
Getting to Rim rating analyzes a player’s ability to create their own shots at the rim, by looking at the percentage of their makes at the rim that are
unassisted and their unassisted makes per 100 possessions on the court.
Note: this metric doesn’t care about assisted shots at the rim. A player driving and getting to the rim, or posting up and creating their own shots at the rim,
will be rewarded more than a player finishing dump offs.
FINISHING AT RIM
Finishing at Rim rating seeks to capture how well a player scores at the rim on the attempts they have once there, and doing so while capturing and
adjusting for variables that may impact performance finishing at the rim (such as spacing, if they were creating their own shot or not, location of shots).
OVERALL FINISHING TALENT GRADE

This metric analyzes a player’s ability to get to and finish at the rim, using our Getting to Rim and Finishing at Rim ratings as inputs, as well as regressing
down smaller samples. You can use this metric to compare among players, with the confidence that degree of difficulty is being captured and adjusted for
to allow comparison of players’ talent in as neutralized an environment as possible.
The way the math is calculated, players creating their own offense rather than finishing dump offs will be rewarded more in this metric, which results in
fewer big men dominating the top of this list.

2 Trae Young Comparisons: Lou Williams
• As for the Lou Williams comparison, that one isn’t all that bad for Trae from a physical perspective given some of the initial outlooks
for Lou’s defensive ability (/s). Here’s one anecdote:
“A rapidly improving defender who has the quickness to stay in front of almost any
guard in the league. Uses his length effectively, gets in a good stance and move his feet
well when defending the ball. Puts solid pressure on his man and plays with a high level
of intensity when he wants to. Good man to man defender when dialed in, but can still
improve on his team defense. Can’t always contest the shots of taller players due to his
lack of height. Narrow frame means he'll get caught behind screens on occasion…Will
only get better on this end of the floor as he gets stronger and more experienced”
• The above quote is clearly incorrect with more than a decade of hindsight, but Lou’s issues on defense have always been more a
result of his lack of effort and intensity on that end of the floor rather than his physical limitations.
Sources:
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Louis-Williams-231/
41
2 List of Recent NBA Champions: Small Point Guards Are Common
Year Team Point Guard Weight Height Wingspan Standing Reach
2020 Los Angeles Lakers Lebron James 250 6' 8" 1/2 7' 0" 8' 10"
2019 Toronto Raptors Kyle Lowry 196 6' 0" 6' 2" 7' 9"
2018 Golden State Warriors Stephen Curry 185 6' 2" 6' 3" 1/2 8' 1"
2016 Cleveland Cavaliers Kyrie Irving 193 6' 1" 3/4 6' 4" 8' 3"
2014 San Antonio Spurs Tony Parker 185 6' 2" 6' 4" -
2013 Miami Heat Mario Chalmers 190 6' 1" - -
2012 Miami Heat Mario Chalmers 190 6' 1" - -
2011 Dallas Mavericks Jason Kidd 209 6' 4" - - <<5' 10" JJ Barea played 20 MPG
2010 Los Angeles Lakers Derek Fisher 200 6' 1" - -
2009 Los Angeles Lakers Derek Fisher 200 6' 1" - -
Trae Young ------------------------------------------------------> 178 6' 0" 1/2 6' 3" 7' 11" 1/2
Sources:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/
42

The Case For Trae Young - A Follow Up

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What are the advanced offensive impact metrics discussed in the document?

What are the advanced offensive impact metrics discussed in the document?

What are the definitions provided for finishing talent rankings?

What are the definitions provided for finishing talent rankings?

Summary Contents

1 Trae Young’s Offensive Impact: Part II

2 Trae Young’s Defensive Impact: Part II

Damian Lillard 2018-2019

Damian Lillard 2019-2020

Kawhi Leonard 2016-2017

Chris Paul 2019-2020

Sources: B-Ball Index (https://www.bball-index.com/2019-20-impact-metrics/)

Kevin Love 2013-2014

DeAndre Jordan 2014-2015

Manu Ginobili 2013-2014

Carmelo Anthony 2014-2015

Sources: B-Ball Index (https://www.bball-index.com/2019-20-impact-metrics/)

Russell Westbrook 2013-2014

Bradley Beal 2019-2020

Dirk Nowitzki 2013-2014

Lou Williams 2014-2015

Nikola Jokic 2018-2019

Jimmy Butler 2017-2018

LeBron James 2019-2020

Damian Lillard 2017-2018

Kyrie Irving 2017-2018

Sources: B-Ball Index (https://www.bball-index.com/2019-20-impact-metrics/)

Lou Williams 2016-2017

Kyle Lowry 2013-2014

Anthony Davis 2018-2019

Sources: B-Ball Index (https://www.bball-index.com/) 9

Sources: B-Ball Index (https://www.bball-index.com/) 10

RANKING PLAYER SHOT DIFFICULTY GETTING TO RIM SCORING AT RIM FINISHING

Sources: B-Ball Index (https://www.bball-index.com/) 11

Points + Assist Points Created Per Touch

Assists + Secondary ("Hockey") Assists Per Touch

0.106 0.106 0.105 0.105 0.104

All-Time Search Criteria:

All-Time Search Criteria:

Keep in mind that Trae

All-Time Search Criteria:

Keep in mind that Trae

All-Time Search Criteria:

Keep in mind that Trae

Points Per 100 Possessions vs rTS%

Sources: Basketball Reference

0.70 0.90 0.90 1.10

-0.70 -1.10 -1.10

“Defensive numbers are very subjective…every person

– Jackie MacMullan on Bill Simmons’ Podcast

Standing Reach (Inches)

DJ Gary Bojan Kyrie Jamal Tim Dennis JJ Khris Eric Joe

Lowest 2 Year Avg D-RPM Highest Career D-RPM D-RPM Improvement

Sources: B-Ball Index (https://www.bball-index.com/) – Based on available data from 2013-2020 31

Career Improvement in D-PIPM

Khris Kemba Dennis Damian Bojan Evan JJ Gary Tim Eric

Lowest 2 Year Avg D-PIPM Highest Career D-PIPM D-PIPM Improvement

Sources: B-Ball Index (https://www.bball-index.com/) – Based on available data from 2013-2020 32