Example 1:

Gas supplier system contains of filter unit (R1), a heater (R2), 3 compressors (R3/R4/R5), & 5 gas
turbines (R6/R7/R8/R9/R10/R11).

The 3 compressor work in parallel, meaning that the compressors sub-system operates if at least
one of the compressor operates. The 5 turbines work in parallel, meaning that the turbines sub-
system operates if at least two of the compressors operate.

Each component may fail independently of the others, with the following failure probability (λ):

R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10
0.05 0.07 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19

1- System reliability if at least 2 turbines operate to avoid system failure?

2- System reliability if at least 3 turbines operate to avoid system failure?
3- System failure ratio λ & MTBF for both turbines cases?

D
C

A B

Solution:

The reliability of the system defined as the probability that system dosn’t fail during maintenance
intervals.Therefor, to calculate the reliability of the whole system, we should calculate reliability
of each sub-system separately.

A- System reliability calculations:

1- Filter sub-system reliability (A): RA = 1-λ = 1-0.05= 0.95

2- Heater sub-system reliability (B): RB = 1-λ = 1-0.07= 0.93
3- Compressors sub-system reliability (C): RC = 1-(λ)x(λ)x(λ)=1-(0.12x0.1x.09)= 0.9989
OR using Failure ratio formula (t=1) =1-[((1-EXP(-0.12))x(1-EXP(-0.1))x(1-EXP(-0.09))] = 0.9991

Same reliability result we will get from the table below by sum the reliability for all 7
probability cases, as the sub-system can be operated by one compressor only. (yellow cell
=off/white cell=on)

R3 R4 R5 Relia bility %
1 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.721 72.07%
2 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.098 9.83%
3 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.080 8.01%
4 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.071 7.13%
5 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.011 1.09%
6 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.010 0.97%
7 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.008 0.79%

sum= 99.89%

4- Turbines sub-system reliability (D): RD = 0.996

reliability result we will get from the table below by sum the reliability for all 26 probability
cases sub-system on, as the sub-system can be operated by 2 turbines only. (yellow cell
=off/white cell=on)

R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 Reliability %
1 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.379 37.88%
2 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.062 6.17%
3 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.072 7.22%
4 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.078 7.76%
5 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.107 10.68%
6 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.089 8.89%
7 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.012 1.17%
8 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.013 1.26%
9 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.017 1.74%
10 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.014 1.45%
11 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.015 1.48%
12 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.020 2.04%
13 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.017 1.69%
14 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.025 2.51%
15 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.022 2.19%
16 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.018 1.82%
17 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.002 0.24%
18 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.003 0.33%
19 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.003 0.28%
20 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.004 0.36%
21 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.003 0.30%
22 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.004 0.41%
23 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.004 0.42%
24 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.003 0.35%
25 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.005 0.48%
26 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.005 0.51%

sum= 99.60%
5- Reliability for whole gas supplier system (ABCD): RD = RA x RB*RC*RD=
0.95x0.93x0.9989x0.996 . RD= 0.8790

As each sub-system connected to each other by series connection, we just multiply their
reliability to get Rt=0.8790

6- System failure ratio λ & MTBF calculations:

Rs(t)=1-λs
λs=1-Rs(t)= 1-0.8790 = 0.1210 failures per hour
MTBFs = 1/λs = 8.266 hours

B- System reliability calculations if (turbines sub-system can be operated by 3 turbines only):

1- Turbines sub-system reliability (D): RD = 0.9594

reliability result we will get from the table below by sum the reliability for only 16 probability
cases sub-system on, as the sub-system can be operated by 3 turbines only. (yellow cell
=off/white cell=on)

R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 Reliability %
1 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.379 37.88%
2 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.062 6.17%
3 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.072 7.22%
4 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.078 7.76%
5 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.107 10.68%
6 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.089 8.89%
7 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.012 1.17%
8 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.013 1.26%
9 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.017 1.74%
10 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.014 1.45%
11 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.015 1.48%
12 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.020 2.04%
13 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.017 1.69%
14 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.022 2.19%
15 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.018 1.82%
16 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.025 2.51%

sum= 95.94%

The reliability of turbines system reduced as there is more chance for system to fail comparing
with previous case.

2-Reliability for whole gas supplier system(ABCD): RD= RA x RB*RC*RD=

0.95x0.93x0.9985x0.9594. RD= 0.8467

3- System failure ratio λ & MTBF calculations:

Rs(t)=1-λs
λs=1-Rs(t)= 1-0.8467 = 0.1533 failures per hour
MTBFs = 1/λs = 1/0.1533 = 6.5232 hours

Example 2:

Diesel engines contains of 4 cambers, chambers is connected in parallel system, at least one
chamber operates to resume the system. Assume that each chamber fail to ignite once in 10
attempts. After engine ignited, chamber has 40% chance to completely collapse.

1- Maximum and minimum days can generators work per year?

2- Each System reliability if at least two chambers work?
3- Each System failure ratio λ & MTBF?
4- Which system of them is prefer to be used and what is the worst one, and why?

Solution:

A.1- System interval reliability calculations (1st parallel loop):

- Failure ratio for each chamber (FR) = number of failures/ number of attempts (λ) = 1/10= 0.1
failures/hours
- Failure ratio each chamber after ignition = 1- R = 1-0.9x.4 = 0.64 failures/hours

A B

1- Engine reliability (AB): RAB = 1-[(0.64x0.64)] x 1-[(0.64x0.64)] = 0.34857 (all chambers works)
No. Days per year = 0.34857 x 365 = 127.22 days

2- Engine reliability (AB): RAB = 1-[(0.64x0.64)] x 1-[0.64] = 0.212544 (three chambers works)
No. Days per year = 0.212544 x 365 = 77.58 days

3- Engine reliability (AB): RAB = 1-[(0.64)] x 1-[(0.64)] = 0.1296 (one chamber works)
No. Days per year = 0.1296 x 365 = 47.3 days
A.2- System reliability calculations:

- Engine sub-system reliability (A): RAB = 1-[(0.64x0.64)] x 1-[(0.64x0.64)] = 0.34857 (at least two
chambers work)
No. Days system can work per year = 0.34857x 365 = 127.23 days

A.3- System failure ratio λ & MTBF calculations:

Rs(t)=1-λs
λs=1-Rs(t)= 1-0.34857 = 0.65143 failures per hour (5706.52 failures per year)
MTBFs = 1/λs = 1.53508 hours

B.1- System interval reliability calculations (2nd parallel loop):

A B

R1

R2 R4

R3

1- Engine reliability (AB): RAB = 1-[(0.64x0.64x0.64)] x [1-0.64] = 0.26562 (all chambers works)
No. Days per year = 0.26562 x 365 = 96.95 days

2- Engine reliability (AB): RAB = 1-[(0.64x0.64)] x [1-0.64] = 0.212544 (two chambers works)
No. Days per year = 0.212544 x 365 = 77.58 days

3- Engine reliability (AB): RAB = [1-0.64] x [1-0.64] = 0.1296 (one chamber works)
No. Days per year = 0.1296 x 365 = 47.3 days (min we can get)

B.2- System reliability calculations:

- Engine sub-system reliability (A): RAB = (1-0.64)^3 + 3x(0.64x(1-0.64)^2 = 0.2955 (at least two
chambers work)
R1 R2 R3
1 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.047 4.67%
2 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.083 8.29%
3 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.083 8.29%
4 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.083 8.29%

sum= 29.55%
- Whole system reliability (SB): RAB = RAxRB= 0.2955 x (1-0.64) = 0.10638
No. Days system can work per year = 0.10638 x 365 = 38.83 days

B.3- System failure ratio λ & MTBF calculations:

Rs(t)=1-λs
λs=1-Rs(t)= 1-0.10638= 0.88362failures per hour (7828 failures per year)
MTBFs = 1/λs = 1.1190 hours

C.1- System interval reliability calculations (3rd parallel loop):

A
R1

R2

R3

R3

1- Engine reliability (AB): RA = 1-[(0.64x0.64x0.64x0.64)] = 0.83222 (all chambers works)

No. Days per year = 0.83222 x 365 = 303.76 days (max we can get)

2- Engine reliability (AB): RA = 1-[(0.64x0.64x0.64)] = 0.73785 (three chambers work)

No. Days per year = 0.73785 x 365 = 269.32 days

3- Engine reliability (AB): RA = 1-[(0.64x0.64)] = 0.5904 (two chambers work)

No. Days per year = 0.5904 x 365 = 215.49 days

4- Engine reliability (AB): RA = 1-[0.64] = 0.36 (one chamber works)

No. Days per year = 0.36 x 365 = 131.4 days

C.2- System reliability calculations:

- Whole system reliability (A): RA = (1-0.64)^4 + 4x(0.64x(1-0.64)^3 + 6x((0.64^2)x(1-0.64)^2) =

0.4547 (at least two chambers work)

R1 R2 R3 R4
1 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.017 1.68%
2 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.030 2.99%
3 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.030 2.99%
4 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.030 2.99%
5 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.030 2.99%
6 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.053 5.31%
7 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.053 5.31%
8 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.053 5.31%
9 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.053 5.31%
10 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.053 5.31%
11 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.053 5.31%

sum= 45.47%
 No. Days system can work per year = 0.4547 x 365 = 165.98 days
C.3- System failure ratio λ & MTBF calculations:

Rs(t)=1-λs
λs=1-Rs(t)= 1-0.4547= 0.5453 failures per hour (4776.8 failures per year)
MTBFs = 1/λs = 1.8339 hours

D. Last parallel system is preferred connection to be used, as it works the longest 166
days/year, and has max MTBFs. And the worst connection one is the second, because it has
shortest run life.
Question3: A system is composed of 7 components connected in a specific network as
shown below. Each component reliability is indicated in the diagram. This system is
considered as a combination of in-series and in-parallel units; and it's overall reliability Rsy
can be evaluated by the above-mentioned procedure, including the network reduction
technique.

(a) consider all components in the network arranged in-series and obtain the lower bound
for Rsy

(b) consider all components in the network arranged in-parallel and obtain the upper
bound or Rsy

(c) consider the exact network configuration and obtain the exact Rsy

Solution

(a) The lower bound of the system reliability (Rsy)lb (assume that component failures are
independent events) = (0.9)3 (0.8)2 (0.75)2 = 0.26244

(b) The upper bound (Rsy)ub (It occurs in practice that in many an in-parallel system failure of
one component does not depend on that of others; and the system can function successfully
when at least one component remains functional) = 1 - [(1-0.9)3 (1-0.8)2 (1-0.75)2] = 0.9999975

(c) The exact Rsy is determined by the network reduction technique:

* the in-parallel unit from B to D is replaced by a single equivalent component with RBD = 1 - [(1-
0.75)2] = 0.9375

* the in-series unit from A to B to D is replaced by a single equivalent component with RABD =
(0.9) (0.8) (0.9375) = 0.675

* the in-series unit from A to C is replaced by a single equivalent component with RAC = (0.9)
(0.8) = 0.72
* The in-parallel unit from A to O is replaced by a single equivalent component with RAO = 1 - [(1-
0.675) (1-0.72)] = 0.909

* The overall system reliability is then determined by the in-series unit from I to O: Rsy = (0.9)

(0.909) = 0.8181.