Narayana Hrudayalaya, June 16, 2020
Narayana Hrudayalaya, June 16, 2020
Narayana Hrudayalaya, June 16, 2020
Strong quarter but challenges ahead. NARH’s 4QFY20 revenues and EBITDA CMP (`): 283
declined by 3% and 13% yoy respectively, although exceeding our EBITDA estimates by Fair Value (`): 360
41% led by lower costs. Initial recovery trends are encouraging and we expect the
BSE-30: 33,605
company to weather near-tem challenges through cost-rationalization initiatives. Debt
level remains comfortable; however, complete normalization of operations is contingent
on the evolving Covid situation. BUY with a revised fair value of Rs360 (from Rs380).
Narayana Hrudayalaya
Stock data Forecasts/valuations 2020 2021E 2022E
52-week range (Rs) (high,low) 389-200 EPS (Rs) 5.8 (3.0) 8.3
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 58/0.8 EPS growth (%) 101.0 (151.7) 375.5
ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 60/1 P/E (X) 48.6 (94.0) 34.1
Shareholding pattern (%) P/B (X) 5.1 5.4 4.6
Promoters 63.9 EV/EBITDA (X) 14.9 31.0 12.2
FIIs 9.6 RoE (%) 10.7 (5.6) 14.6
MFs/BFIs 14/1.8 Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Sales (Rs bn) 31 26 36
Absolute 7 (2) 25 EBITDA (Rs bn) 4 2 5
Rel. to BSE-30 (1) (9) 47 Net profits (Rs bn) 1 (1) 2
NARH’s 4QFY20 revenues declined 3% yoy and were largely in line with our estimates.
Revenues at mature centers declined 4% yoy (-7% vs KIE) due to the lockdown with flagship
units getting further impacted from early March, particularly from reduction in the international
patient segment. New units grew 22% yoy (+20% vs KIE). Cayman surprised positively posting
merely 9% yoy decline in revenues (+44% vs KIE) despite the unit being temporarily shut for
two weeks in March, implying a strong performance in Jan-Feb months. Gross margins at 76%
were largely in line with our estimates. Consolidated EBITDA (pre-Ind-AS) of Rs774 mn was 41%
ahead of our estimates led by sharp qoq decline in staff and SG&A expenses and reflects strong
cost-control measures. EBITDA margin (pre-Ind-AS) declined 190 bps qoq to 10.4% as mature
cluster margins declined 160 bps qoq to 12.1%. Losses at new units were largely steady. NARH
booked an impairment of Rs109 mn for Dharamshila on account of weaker revenue forecast.
NARH completion of capex cycle and focus on optimization of existing units during FY2020 has
positioned it well to endure near-term challenges with the company generating ~Rs2.2 bn FCF
in FY2020. Even as we see significant impact on profitability during FY2021, we believe
leverage level (Rs5.3 bn net debt) remains comfortable. The company has initiated various cost-
rationalization initiatives including graded reduction in staff compensation and deferment of
nonessential spends, which will help reduce losses during 1QFY21. Recovery trends are
encouraging with gradual improvement in revenues post relaxation of the lockdown and we
expect the company to return to EBITDA breakeven level (~70% of usual revenues) in July. We
expect normalization of the domestic segment only by 2HFY21, contingent on the evolving Chirag Talati, CFA
chirag.talati@kotak.com
Covid situation and expect the international patient segment (10% of India hospitals revenues)
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0871
to partially recover in FY2022 (2/3rd of international patients revenues are from Bangladesh).
Kumar Gaurav
kumar.g@kotak.com
We cut FY2021/22 EBITDA estimates; BUY
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0872
We cut our FY2021/22 EBITDA (pre-Ind-AS) estimates by 46% and 11% respectively and now
expect new units to break even in FY2023 at the earliest. BUY with a revised fair value of Rs360
(versus Rs380 earlier) based on 16X June 2022E pre-Ind-AS EBITDA.
For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL.
Health Care Services Narayana Hrudayalaya
April revenues were ~35% of usual pre-Covid level revenues, with May inching up to
~50%. With revised cost structures, EBITDA breakeven will be achieved at 70% of pre-
Covid level revenues. The company is optimistic of achieving EBITDA breakeven in June.
Capex has been curtailed to bare minimum for FY2021 and will be around Rs1.2 bn. The
company has also taken cost-rationalization initiatives including employees taking 5-15%
reduction in pay and doctors with high retainers being switched temporarily to variable
fees.
Most of the hospitals across network have 10-20% beds reserved for Covid-19 patients.
However, this has led to non-Covid patients staying away unless absolutely necessary.
The company is funding losses for 1Q through cash balance of ~Rs1.8 bn on books and
does not see increase in gross borrowings in the near term.
Cayman unit is doing much better than Indian operations with revenues already at ~65%
of pre-Covid levels and the unit breaking even on EBITDA in May.
2/3rd of international patients by value are from Bangladesh and the company remains
optimistic on prospects of faster recovery in this segment on possibility of land border
from Bangladesh reopening soon.
Receivables have not seen any significant increase as patient flow from government
segment remained muted during the past two months.
Exhibit 1: NARH 3QFY20 EBITDA missed our estimates driven by muted growth at mature centers
3QFY20 Interim results, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn)
(% chg.)
4QFY20 4QFY20E 4QFY19 3QFY20 4QFY20E 4QFY19 3QFY20 FY2020 FY2019 % chg. FY2021E
Revenues 7,429 7,420 7,652 7,852 0 (3) (5) 31,278 28,608 9 26,085
CO GS (1,788) (1,781) (1,856) (1,848) 0 (4) (3) (7,453) (6,875) 8 (6,287)
Gross profit 5,642 5,639 5,796 6,004 0 (3) (6) 23,825 21,733 10 19,799
Employee expenses (1,680) (1,793) (1,596) (1,717) (6) 5 (2) (6,814) (6,241) 9 (6,535)
O ther expenses (3,005) (3,233) (3,305) (3,261) (7) (9) (8) (12,782) (12,615) 1 (11,194)
EBITDA 957 613 895 1,027 56 7 (7) 4,229 2,877 47 2,069
EBITDA (adjusted for Ind-AS) 774 551 895 964 41 (13) (20) 3,820 2,877 33 1,621
Depreciation (551) (462) (359) (464) (1,858) (1,374) (2,031)
EBIT 407 151 536 563 169 (24) (28) 2,371 1,504 38
O ther income 70 53 72 55 238 167 253
Finance costs (208) (268) (175) (206) (853) (714) (876)
Exceptional items (109) 0 0 0 (109) 0 0
PBT 269 (64) 434 412 NM (38) (35) 1,756 956 (585)
Tax (36) 0 (99) (88) (423) (341) 0
Minorities/associates (4) 0 37 (10) (35) (23) (30)
PAT (adjusted) 120 (64) 372 314 NM (68) (62) 1,190 592 (615)
Number of shares 204 204 204 204 204 204 204
EPS 0.6 (0.3) 1.8 1.5 NM (68) (62) 5.8 2.9 (3.0)
Effective tax rate 13 — 23 21 24 36 —
As % of sales
Gross profit 75.9 76.0 75.7 76.5 76.2 76.0 75.9
Employee cost 22.6 24.2 20.9 21.9 21.8 21.8 25.1
O ther expenses 40.4 43.6 43.2 41.5 40.9 44.1 42.9
EBITDA margin 12.9 8.3 11.7 13.1 13.5 10.1 7.9
EBITDA margin (pre-Ind-AS) (%) 10.4 7.4 11.7 12.3 12.2 10.1 6.2
Revenues (Rs mn)
Mature centers 5,755 6,166 5,992 6,146 (7) (4) (6) 24,461 22,966 7 28,296
New centers 639 534 522 616 20 22 4 2,479 1,832 35 (5,475)
India hospitals 6,394 6,700 6,514 6,762 (5) (2) (5) 26,940 24,798 9 22,821
Cayman 1,035 720 1,138 1,090 44 (9) (5) 4,338 3,810 14 3,264
Consolidated revenues 7,429 7,420 7,652 7,852 0 (3) (5) 31,278 28,608 9 26,085
EBITDA (Rs mn)
Mature centers 698 562 742 842 24 (6) (17) 3,415 2,915 17 1,598
New centers (132) (141) (159) (143) (6) (17) (8) (581) (702) (17) (500)
India hospitals 566 421 583 699 34 (3) (19) 2,834 2,213 28 1,098
Cayman 209 130 312 265 61 (33) (21) 986 664 49 522
Consolidated EBITDA 774 551 895 964 41 (13) (20) 3,820 2,877 33 1,621
EBITDA margin (pre-Ind-AS) (%)
Mature centers 12.1 9.1 12.4 13.7 14.0 12.7 5.6
New centers (20.7) (26.4) (30.5) (23.2) (23.4) (38.3) 9.1
India hospitals 8.8 6.3 9.0 10.3 10.5 8.9 4.8
Cayman 20.2 18.0 27.4 24.3 22.7 17.4 16.0
Consolidated EBITDA 10.4 7.4 11.7 12.3 12.2 10.1 6.2
40 35
30
20
10
0
April May June ( E )
Exhibit 3: We revise our LFL adjusted EBITDA by 46% and 11% for FY2021-22E
Earnings revision table, March fiscal year-ends, 2021-22E (Rs mn, %)
"Each of the analysts named below hereby certifies that, with respect to each subject company and its securities for which
the analyst is responsible in this report, (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views
about the subject companies and securities, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or
indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report: Chirag Talati, Kumar Gaurav."
60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which Kotak
Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has provided
50% 47.1%
investment banking services within the previous 12 months.
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
Our Ratings System does not take into account short-term volatility in stock prices related to movements in the market. Hence, a particular Rating may not
strictly be in accordance with the Rating System at all times.
Other definitions
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designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s)
and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.
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