QRA

QRA definition

 QRA is a method that identifies where operations,

engineering, or management systems can be modified
to reduce risk.

 QRAs are used to evaluate potential risks when

qualitative methods cannot provide an adequate
understanding of the risks. QRA is especially effective for
evaluating alternative risk reduction strategies.
QRA Scope

 The complexity of a QRA depends on the objectives of the study

and the available information.

 Maximum benefits result when QRAs are used at the beginning of

a project (conceptual review and design phases) and are
maintained throughout the facility’s life cycle.

 The QRA method is designed to provide managers with a tool to

help them evaluate the overall risk of a process.
Terms Definition

 Frequency : Number of occurrences of an event per unit of time

 Hazard : A chemical or physical condition that has potential for causing damage to
people, property, or the environment

 Incident : The lost of containment of material or energy

 Risk : A measure of human injury, environmental damage or economic loss in terms of

both incident likelihood and the magnitude of the loss or injury

 Risk analysis : The development of quantitative estimate of risk based on engineering

evaluation and mathematical techniques for combining estimates of incident
consequences and frequencies

 Risk assessment : The process by which the results of a risk analysis are used to make
decisions, either through a relative ranking of risk reduction or through comparison with
risk targets
 QRA Procedure

The major steps of a QRA study include :

1. Defining the potential event sequences and potential incidents,
2. Evaluating the incident consequences (the typical tools for this step include
dispersion modeling and fire and explosion modeling),
3. Estimating the potential incident frequencies using event trees and fault trees,
4. Estimating the incident impacts on people, environment, and property, and
5. Estimating the risk by combining the impacts and frequencies, and recording the
risk

In general, QRA is a relatively complex procedure that requires expertise and a

substantial commitment of resources and time.
QRA Procedure

General Description of Risk

 QRA and LOPA

 Risk is the product of the probability of a

release, the probability of exposure, and
the consequences of the exposure.

 All companies decide their levels of

acceptable risk and unacceptable risk.
The actual risk of a process or plant is
usually determined using quantitative risk
analysis (QRA) or a layer of protection
analysis (LOPA).
 8
Pendekatan Penilaian Risiko

Ada dua pendekatan Penilaian Risiko menurut tingkat akurasinya

 Penilaian Kualitatif (subyektif):
 penilaian yang dilakukan langsung tanpa menggunakan metoda yang menuntut
kemampuan spesialis
 Penilaian sistematik: menggunakan matriks risiko
 Penilaian Kuantitatif, yaitu
 menggunakan metoda ilmiah, risiko dinyatakan kuantitatif
 Diperlukan untuk penilaian bahaya yang besar dan kompleks, misalnya reaktor nuklir,
proses kimia

yostri_unpar docendo_disco 7/29/2020

 9
Menilai Risiko
Penilaian Subyektif (kualitatif)

Risiko = Dampak x Kemungkinan terjadi

 Penilaian risiko kualitatif ialah
kegiatan formal membuat justifikasi
kualitatif tentang dampak (impact)
dan probabilitas
 Setelah diketahui besarnya risiko
dilanjutkan dengan Pengendalian
Risiko (Risk Control). Prioritas
pengendalian risiko diarahkan pada
risiko yang tinggi
 Cara lain Penilaian Kualitatif ialah
dengan Risk Matrix

yostri_unpar docendo_disco 7/29/2020

 10
Systematic Qualitative Risk Estimation

Pendekatan
kualitatif yang
lebih sistematis
dan masih
menggunakan
justifiksi subyektif
ialah dengan "Risk
Assessment
Decision Matrix"
yang diadopsi dari
US Military
Standard

yostri_unpar docendo_disco 7/29/2020

 11
Menilai Risiko
Penilaian Risiko Kuantitatif

Penilaian Risiko Kuantitatif

 Digunakan untuk Teknologi Tinggi
 jarang terjadi tetapi berdampak serius bagi pabrik atau tempat kerja

Penilaian risiko kuantitatif juga menggunakan korelasi sbb.:

Risiko = Dampak x Kemungkinan terjadi

Masing-masing komponen risiko dinyatakan dalam angka yang terukur

yostri_unpar docendo_disco 7/29/2020

QRA/HI-RA
QRA/HI-RA
N
ACCIDENT RISK ACCEPT?
SYSTEM
DESCRIPTION
CONSEQUENCES ASSESMENT

Y
BUILD THE
HAZARD
SCENARIO ACCIDENT SYSTEM
IDENTIFICATI IDENTIFICATION PROBABILITY
ON
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION
CHAPTER 11

CHEMICAL PROCESS SAFETY BY DANIEL A CROWL

HAZARD IDENTIFICATION

HAZARD ADA DIMANA-MANA DAN SEBISA MUNGKIN DIIDENTIFIKASI UTK

MENGANTISIPASI RESIKO.

4 QUESTIONS OF HAZARD EVALUATION :

1. WHAT ARE THE HAZARDS?  HAZARD IDENTIFICATION (HI)
WHAT CAN GO WRONG AND HOW?
RISK ASSESMENT (RA)/
2.

3. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES?

4. WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES? HAZARD ANALYSIS
QUESTION NO 2 = SCENARIO IDENTIFICATION!
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION

 Hazards identification and risk assessment studies can be

performed at any stage during the initial design or ongoing
operation of a process. If the study is performed with the initial
design, it should be done as soon as possible. This enables
modifications to be easily incorporated into the final design.
 Hazard identification can be performed independent of risk
assessment. However, the best result is obtained if they are done
together. One outcome is that hazards of low probability and
minimal consequences are identified and addressed with the result
that the process is “gold-plated.”
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkHlIDtSNik
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION

BEBERAPA METODE HAZARD IDENTIFICATION

1. PROCESS HAZARDS CHECKLIST
2. HAZARDS SURVEYS
3. HAZARD AND OPERABILITY (HAZOP) STUDIES
4. SAFETY REVIEW
 PROCESS HAZARDS CHECKLIST

 Ada daftar problem-problem yang mungkin muncul dan area yang

harus diperiksa.
 Mengidentifikasi hasil desain proses yang menimbulkan hazard
(sebelum operasi) – tahap preliminary hazard identification.
 Checklists are most effective in identifying hazards arising from
process design, plant layout, storage of chemicals, electrical systems,
and so forth.
 HAZARD SURVEYS

 A hazards survey can be as simple as an inventory of hazardous materials in a facility

or as complicated as a rigorous procedure such as the Dow Fire and Explosion Index
(F&EI) and the Dow-Chemical Exposure Index (CEI), which are two popular forms of
hazards survey.
 Melibatkan material factor dan hazard factor, bisa digunakan untuk memperkirakan
dampak dari accident  MAXIMUM PROBABLE PROPERTY DAMAGE (MPPD) DAN
MAXIMUM PROBABLE DAY OUTAGE (MPDO)
 Hazards surveys are suitable for identifying hazards associated with equipment
design, layout, material storage, and so forth. They are not suitable for identifying
hazards resulting from improper operation or upset conditions. On the other hand, this
approach is fairly rigorous, requires little experience, is easy to apply, and provides a
quick result.
HAZARD SURVEYS
HAZOP (HAZARD AND OPERABILITY)
 HAZOP

 HAZOP study is a formal procedure to identify hazards in a chemical process facility.

The basic idea is to let the mind go free in a controlled fashion in order to consider all
the possible ways that process and operational failures can occur.
 Membutuhkan informasi detil tentang : up-to-date process flow diagrams (PFDs),
process and instrumentation diagrams (P&IDs), detailed equipment specifications,
materials of construction, and mass and energy balances.
 Dikerjakan sebuah komite/tim yang terdiri dari : experienced plant, laboratory,
technical, and safety professionals. Pimpinan tim/komite harus terlatih dengan
HAZOP, berpengalaman dengan prosedur HAZOP, dan mengerti proses kimia. 
Profesi TK!
 a complete HAZOP study requires a large investment in time and effort, but the value
of the result is well worth the effort.
 27
HAZOP

 HAZOP dilakukan secara kelompok, anggotanya terdiri berbagai fungsi

keahlian berbeda dalam suatu pabrik
 Kelompok melakukan urun rembug (brainstorming) dengan
menggunakan pedoman “Guide Words” yang diterapkan pada
bagian-bagian (titik) tertentu yang disebut “Node”.

yostri_unpar docendo_disco 7/29/2020

 HAZOP

PROSEDUR HAZOP :
1. Begin with a detailed flow sheet. Break the flow sheet into a number of process units.
2. Choose a study node (vessel, line, operating instruction).
3. Describe the design intent of the study node. For example, vessel V-1 is designed to
store the benzene feedstock and provide it on demand to the reactor.
4. Pick a process parameter: flow, level, temperature, pressure, concentration, pH,
viscosity, state (solid, liquid, or gas), agitation, volume, reaction, sample,
component, start, stop, stability, power, inert.
5. Apply a guide word to the process parameter to suggest possible deviations.
6. If the deviation is applicable, determine possible causes and note any protective
systems.
 HAZOP

7. Evaluate the consequences of the deviation (if any).

8. Recommend action (what? by whom? by when?).
9. Record all information.
10. Repeat steps 5 through 9 until all applicable guide words have been applied to
the chosen process parameter.
11. Repeat steps 4 through 10 until all applicable process parameters have been
considered for the given study node.
12. Repeat steps 2 through 11 until all study nodes have been considered for the
given section and proceed to the next section on the flow sheet.
https://www.primatech.com/technical/hazop?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIorLsirOw5QIV2h
wrCh04cAmMEAAYASAAEgKQOvD_BwE
 HAZOP

 AS WELL AS means that something else happens in addition to the intended design
intention. This could be boiling of a liquid, transfer of some additional component, or
the transfer of some fluid somewhere else than expected.
 PART OF means that one of the components is missing or the stream is being
preferentially pumped to only part of the process.
 OTHER THAN applies to situations in which a material is substituted for the expected
material, is transferred somewhere else, or the material solidifies and cannot be
transported.
 The guide words SOONER THAN, LATER THAN, and WHERE ELSE are applicable to
batch processing.
HAZOP

 KEUNTUNGAN : it provides a more complete

identification of the hazards, including information on
how hazards can develop as a result of operating
procedures and operational upsets in the process.

 KERUGIAN : the HAZOP approach is tedious to apply,

requires considerable staff time, and can potentially
identify hazards independent of the risk
HAZOP

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMRNkG2aOtI

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AqtX8oCpKI
 SAFETY REVIEW

 A “safety review” brings together a diverse group of people to review a project or

operation with a broad safety perspective. The review team identifies and eliminates
hazards in the design and procedures.
 The review process includes finding initiating events or upset conditions that can
cause an accident, a review of previous accidents and incidents in similar plants or
processes. The focus should be on developing a high-quality review that prevents
personnel injuries, equipment damage or failures, and business interruptions.
 Some incidents are referred to as “near-misses,” meaning that a serious consequence
did not occur but could have. Incident investigations or case histories contain actions
to prevent a recurrence of similar incidents.
 The study of previous accident and incident reports helps the reviewers avoid
repeating past mistakes; that is, learn from history or you’re doomed to repeat it.
 SAFETY REVIEW

 Review dilakukan secara periodic selama proses berjalan. Review awal merupakan
hal paling penting karena mengubah desain awal/original jauh lebih murah
daripada mengubah plant yang sudah beroperasi.
 Ada 2 macam review : internal dan eksternal.
 After startup, the periodic reviews should be conducted about every year or
whenever the process adds new equipment, new chemicals, new reactions, and
new procedures.
 A safety review is a cooperative, constructive, and creative process that improves the
safety and performance of the process. An especially high quality review is not limited
to environmental and safety consequences but is expanded to include operability
and product quality concerns
 SAFETY REVIEW : INTERNAL REVIEW

 The informal safety review is used for small changes to existing

processes and for small bench-scale or laboratory processes.
melibatkan dua atau tiga orang (kelompok kecil) yang
bertanggung jawab dan terlibat langsung dalam proses.
 Significant improvements should be summarized in a memo for others
to reference in the future. The improvements must be implemented
before the process is operated.
 SAFETY REVIEW : FORMAL REVIEW

 The formal safety review is used for new processes, substantial

changes in existing processes, and processes that need an updated
review.
 Tahap-tahap review terdiri dari :
1. preparing a detailed formal safety review report,
2. having a committee review the report and inspect the process,
3. developing improvements in the design and operating procedures,
and
4. implementing the recommendations.
 SAFETY REVIEW : FORMAL REVIEW

 Laporan formal review terdiri dari :

I. Introduction :
A. Overview or summary,
B. Process overview or summary,
C. Reactions and stoichiometry,
D. Engineering data.
II. Raw materials and products
III. Equipment setup :
A.Equipment description,
B. Equipment specifications
 SAFETY REVIEW : FORMAL REVIEW

IV. Procedures :
A. Normal operating procedures,
B. Safety procedure :
- emergency shutdown, fail-safe procedure, major release procedure,
C. Waste disposal procedure,
D. Cleanup procedures: Describes how to clean the process after use.

V. Safety checklist
VI. Material safety data sheets
 SAFETY REVIEW : FORMAL REVIEW

 The formal safety review can be used almost immediately, is relatively

easy to apply, and is known to provide good results. However, the
committee participants must be experienced in identifying safety
problems.
 METODE YANG LAIN

 1. “What if” analysis: applies the words “what if” to a number of areas of
investigation. Contoh : What if the flow stops? The analysis team then decides what
the potential consequences might be and how to solve any problems.
 2. Human error analysis: This method is used to identify the parts and the procedures
of a process that have a higher than normal probability of human error. Control
panel layout is an excellent application for human error analysis because a control
panel can be designed in such a fashion that human error is inevitable.
 3. Failure mode, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA): This method tabulates a list
of equipment in the process along with all the possible failure modes for each item.
The effect of a particular failure is considered with respect to the process.
HUMAN ERROR ANALYSIS
METODE YANG LAIN

 Human Error Analysis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5om41fN_T48

 FMECA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Bi8nptcYv0
CPQRA
 CPQRA 51

yos.tri@unpar.ac.id 12/9/2020
 Accident Consequences
Analysis
Detailnya lihat buku CCPS Consequence
Analysis,
FIGURE 1.3. Overall logic diagram for the
consequence models for releases of
volatile, hazardous substances.

Flammable Toxic

yos.tri@unpar.ac.id 52 12/9/2020
 53

Detailnya lihat buku CCPS Consequence Analysis

yos.tri@unpar.ac.id 12/9/2020