Of Scale) Is The Phenomenon by Which The
Of Scale) Is The Phenomenon by Which The
Of Scale) Is The Phenomenon by Which The
Contents
1Origins
o 2.1Critical mass
o 2.2Market tipping
3Technology lifecycle
5Interoperability
o 8.1Financial exchanges
o 8.2Cryptocurrencies
o 8.3Software
o 8.4Web sites
o 8.5Rail gauge
o 8.6Credit cards
9See also
10References
11External links
Origins[edit]
Network effects were a central theme in the arguments of Theodore Vail, the first post-
patent president of Bell Telephone, in gaining a monopoly on US telephone services. In 1908,
when he presented the concept in Bell's annual report, there were over 4,000 local and regional
telephone exchanges, most of which were eventually merged into the Bell System.
Network effects were popularized by Robert Metcalfe, stated as Metcalfe's law. Metcalfe was one
of the co-inventors of Ethernet and a co-founder of the company 3Com. In selling the product,
Metcalfe argued that customers needed Ethernet cards to grow above a certain critical mass if
they were to reap the benefits of their network.[6] According to Metcalfe, the rationale behind the
sale of networking cards was that the cost of the network was directly proportional to the number
of cards installed, but the value of the network was proportional to the square of the number of
users. This was expressed algebraically as having a cost of N, and a value of N2. While the
actual numbers behind this proposition were never firm, the concept allowed customers to share
access to expensive resources like disk drives and printers, send e-mail, and eventually access
the Internet.[7]
The economic theory of the network effect was advanced significantly between 1985 and 1995
by researchers Michael L. Katz, Carl Shapiro, Joseph Farrell, and Garth Saloner.[8] Author, high-
tech entrepreneur Rod Beckstrom presented a mathematical model for describing networks that
are in a state of positive network effect at BlackHat and Defcon in 2009 and also presented the
"inverse network effect" with an economic model for defining it as well.[9] Because of the positive
feedback often associated with the network effect, system dynamics can be used as a modelling
method to describe the phenomena.[10] Word of mouth and the Bass diffusion model are also
potentially applicable.[11]
Market tipping[edit]
Network effects give rise to the potential outcome of market tipping, defined as "the tendency of
one system to pull away from its rivals in popularity once it has gained an initial edge".[17] Tipping
results in a market in which only one good or service dominates and competition is stifled. This is
because network effects tend to incentivise users to coordinate their adoption of a single product.
Therefore, tipping can result in a natural form of market concentration in markets that display
network effects.[18] However, the presence of network effects does not necessarily imply that a
market will tip; the following additional conditions must be met:
1. The utility derived by users from network effects must exceed the utility they
derive from differentiation
2. Users must have high costs of multihoming (i.e. adopting more than one
competing networks)
3. Users must have high switching costs
If any of these three conditions are not satisfied, the market may fail to tip and multiple products
with significant market shares may coexist.[4] One such example is the U.S. instant messaging
market, which remained an oligopoly despite significant network effects. This can be attributed to
the low multi-homing and switching costs faced by users.
Market tipping does not imply permanent success in a given market. Competition can be
reintroduced into the market due to shocks such as the development of new technologies.
Additionally, if the price is raised above customers' willingness to pay, this may reverse market
tipping.[4]
Multiple equilibria and expectations[edit]
Networks effects often result in multiple potential market equilibrium outcomes. The key
determinant in which equilibrium will manifest are the expectations of the market participants,
which are self-fulfilling.[2] Because users are incentivised to coordinate their adoption, user will
tend to adopt the product that they expect to draw the largest number of users. These
expectations may be shaped by path dependence, such as a perceived first-mover advantage,
which can result in lock-in. The most commonly cited example of path dependence is
the QWERTY keyboard, which owes its ubiquity to its establishment of an early lead in the
keyboard layout industry and high switching costs, rather than any inherent advantage over
competitors. Other key influences of adoption expectations can be reputational (e.g. a firm that
has previously produced high quality products may be favoured over a new firm).[19]
Markets with network effects may result in inefficient equilibrium outcomes. With simultaneous
adoption, users may fail to coordinate towards a single agreed-upon product, resulting in
splintering among different networks, or may coordinate to lock-in to a different product than the
one that is best for them.[2]