BULLETIN

Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

WEATHER CLIMATE WATER

The Ocean,
Our Climate
and Weather
WMO BULLETIN
The journal of the
World Meteorological Contents
Organization Forewords
By Petteri Taalas and Peter Thomson . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Volume 70 (1) - 2021
Secretary-General P. Taalas
The Ocean, weather, climate and the Earth system
Deputy Secretary-General E. Manaenkova – new approaches and looking forward together
Assistant Secretary-General W. Zhang
By Louis W. Uccellini . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
The WMO Bulletin is published twice per year
in English, French, Russian and Spanish editions.

Editor E. Manaenkova Collaborating for a better future

Associate Editor S. Castonguay
By Sarah Grimes  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Editorial board
E. Manaenkova (Chair)
P. Egerton (Policy) The IMO and WMO – Providing weather information
J. Stander (Services)
J. Luterbacher (Science, Innovation) to support safe navigation
M. Power (Member Services)
A. Rea (Infrastructure)
By Heike Deggim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
J. Cullmann (Water and Cryosphere)
M. Dilley (Climate)
S. Grimes (Ocean)
D. Ivanov (Public-private Engagement) The IHO and WMO – over a century of collaboration
S. Castonguay (Secretary)
By David Wyatt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
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From ocean and atmosphere interaction to IOC and
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© World Meteorological Organization, 2021
By Vladimir Ryabinin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
The right of publication in print, electronic and any other
form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short ex-
tracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without
authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly Ocean-Climate Nexus
indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish,
reproduce or translate this publication (articles) in part or in By Sabrina Speich and Weidong Yu . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
whole should be addressed to:

Chairperson, Publications Board

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
7 bis avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 8403
The Role of the Ocean in a Changing Climate
P.O. Box 2300 Fax.: +41 (0) 22 730 8117
CH-1211 Geneva 2 Email: publications@wmo.int By Hans-Otto Pörtner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Switzerland

The designations employed in WMO publications and the

presentation of material in this publication do not imply the Global Climate Indicators: Ocean heat content,
expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WMO
concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or
acidification, deoxygenation and blue carbon
area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its
frontiers or boundaries. By Kirsten Isensee, Katherina Schoo, John Kennedy,
Karina von Schuckmann, Omar Baddour,
The mention of specific companies or products does not imply
that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in prefer- Maxx Dilley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
ence to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned
or advertised.

The opinions, findings, interpretations and conclusions Climate and Ocean research: The World Climate
expressed in WMO Bulletin articles and advertisements are Research Programme (WCRP)
those of the authors and advertisers and do not necessarily
reflect those of WMO or its Members. By Michael Sparrow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Front cover photo: Will Eades, Port Macquarie, Australia

Learning from the past to understand the future: Monitoring ENSO and creating ocean
historical records of change in the ocean and climate services - the role of CIIFEN
By Rob Allan, Kevin Wood, Eric Freeman, Clive By Felipe Costa do Carmo and Juan José Nieto . . . . 88
Wilkinson, Axel Andersson, Andrew Lorrey, Philip
Brohan, Martin Stendel, John Kennedy . . . . . . . . . 36
Predicting extreme ocean temperatures on timescales
useful for marine management
Ocean Observations Programmes to Monitor Climate
and Address Societal Needs: The Role of the OOPC By Claire Spillman and Alistair Hobday . . . . . . . . . 90

By Sabrina Speich and Weidong Yu . . . . . . . . . . . 43

From Us to Us - Enhancing maritime weather and
coastal services in Indonesia and beyond
Global Cryosphere Watch – sea-ice information for
science and operations By Dwikorita Karnawati, Guswanto, Nelly Florida Riama,
Eko Prasetyo, Anni Arumsari Fitriany, Andri Ramdhani,
By Petra Heil, Penelope Wagner, Nick Hughes, Bayu Edo Pratama, Suci Dewi Anugrah . . . . . . . . . 93
Thomas Lavergne and Rodica Nitu . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

Whirling World – Tropical Cyclones and the Ocean

From JCOMMOPS to OceanOPS: supporting
oceanography and marine meteorology in-situ By Anne-Claire Fontan, Taoyong Peng, Xiao Zhou,
Sarah Grimes, Estelle de Coning, Zhuo Wang, Nanette
observations
Lomarda, Champika Gallage, Cyrille Honoré, Jürg
By Mathieu Belbéoch and Emanuela Rusciano . . . . . 52 Luterbacher, Anthony Rea, Johan Stander . . . . . . . 95

Vendée Globe Race Skippers go global with ocean Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS), a
observing! tool for Effective Ocean Prediction and Services

By Emanuela Rusciano, Mathieu Belbéoch, By Agnes Kijazi, Wilbert Muruke, Mohamed Ngwali,
Emma Heslop and Albert Fischer . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Wilberforce Kikwasi, Mathew Ndaki . . . . . . . . . . . 98

Protecting Buoys for our Safety Oceanic Science for Services in Small-Island
Developing States
By Champika Gallage and Sarah Grimes . . . . . . . . . 60
By Arlene Laing, Ofa Fa’anunu and David Farrell . . . 101

Ocean Prediction - modelling for the future

Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems: The Coastal
By Fraser Davidson, Andrew Robertson, Frédéric Vitart, Inundation Forecasting Initiative
Anthony Rea, Michel Jean, Andreas Schiller, Thomas
J. Cuff, Sarah Grimes, Eunha Lim, Estelle de Coning, By Val Swail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Peiliang Shi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

South Atlantic Ocean Prediction and Services

Products and services for a changing ocean
By Daniel Peixoto de Carvalho . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
By Thomas J. Cuff, Val Swail, Sarah Grimes, Christine
Bassett, Johan Stander, Ian Lisk, Cyrille Honore,
Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Patrick Parrish and Oil spill management and salvage in the Indian
Zhichao Wang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Ocean
By Pierre Daniel and Renganaden Virasami . . . . . . 109
Extreme Maritime Weather: Improving Safety of
Life at Sea
By Joseph Sienkiewicz and Thomas J. Cuff . . . . . . . 84

Skating on Thinning Ice: Challenges in the

Changing Arctic
By Thomas J. Cuff, Keld Qvistgaard, John Parker
and Christine Bassett . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
2 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Foreword
Professor Petteri Taalas
World Meteorological Day marks the anniversary of devastating impact on coastal communities. Non-
the World Meteorological Organisation celebrated on tropical ocean storms also continued to wreak havoc
the 23 March each year. This year, we celebrate the aboard ships, with additional losses of life and cargo
theme “The Ocean, Our Climate and Weather.” at sea. In 2020, the annual Arctic sea-ice minimum
was among the lowest on record. Polar communities
The theme is a reminder that the origin of WMO – and suffered abnormal coastal flooding, and sea ice hazards
its predecessor, the International Meteorological as a result of melting ice.
Organisation – is linked to maritime history. As
ships crossed the open ocean for trade, transport In understanding the ocean, and providing ocean
and exploration in the 1800s, the exchange of weather related services, the WMO appreciates the many
information at sea was critical for a safe voyage. strong partnerships crucial for supporting our
This was the birth of international collaboration in Members to strength met-ocean and climate services.
meteorology. Indeed, Matthew Maury, the U.S. Naval The International Maritime Organization (IMO),
Officer, oceanographer and meteorologist who initiated the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO)
the First International Meteorology Conference in and UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic
Brussels in 1853, is fondly referred to as the “Father Commission (IOC) are three key partners, of many,
of Modern Oceanography and Naval Meteorology.” to this effort.

Ocean and atmosphere exchange is a critical component In celebrating World Meteorological Day with an ocean
to understand climate and weather processes. In a theme, WMO is also marking the start of the United
time of increasingly intense and frequent natural Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable
hazards, when people are starting to feel the impacts Development (2021 to 2030) with this special ‘ocean’
of climate change – many of which are ocean related edition of the WMO Bulletin. Within, you’ll find a very
– it is more important than ever to understand and interesting and impressive compilation of the breadth
appreciate the symbiotic links between oceanography of ocean activities that WMO, Members and partners
and meteorology as WMO implements its Earth System are progressing.
approach.
In parallel to this, WMO is a Nominating Agency
The WMO annual State of the Global Climate report, for the prestigious Earthshot Prize (2021 to 2030),
shows that 2020 was one of the three warmest years which encourages solutions to support the much-
on record, despite the developing La Niña cooling needed work in understanding the ocean and climate
in the Pacific Ocean. Many countries experienced for sustainable development. Together, around the
prolonged droughts that extended fire seasons world, I look forward to working with you all, with
throughout the world, exacerbating wildfires – the the high energy, innovation and commitment by
devastation in Australia, for example, was linked Members, partners and civil society in progressing
to ocean temperatures influencing drier seasonal our knowledge, understanding and services for “The
climate patterns. Warm ocean temperatures helped Ocean, Our Climate and Weather.”
fuel a record Atlantic hurricane season, and unusually
intense tropical cyclones in the Indian and South Petteri Taalas
Pacific Oceans. The storm surge damage in these Secretary-General
areas demonstrated the power of the ocean and its World Meteorological Organization
 WMO BULLETIN 3

Foreword
UN Photo/Mark Garten

Ambassador Peter Thomson

Coming from an island community and having lived energy of the sun, the ocean is the great regulator,
through many an extreme weather event, I have thus we must give it the full respect it requires of us.
the highest of respect for meteorologists. I often
find myself humming that memorable Simon and To understand what is expected of us, we must learn
Garfunkel line, “I get all the news I need on the and understand more. The ocean has been absorbing
weather report”; so first up, on behalf of mariners over 90% of the heat trapped by increasing greenhouse
at risk, vulnerable coastal dwellers, rain-dependent gas emissions. This has warmed its waters, leading
farmers, and so many others, I want to thank all you to marine heatwaves, death of coral, melting ice
weather-people for the great work you do on our and rising sea levels. The better we understand the
behalf. interplay between the ocean, weather and climate,
the better we can predict and prepare for weather
An upbringing on a volcanic island in the South and climate hazards both on land and in the ocean.
Pacific also provided me with direct observation of
the hydrologic cycle and first-hand experience of At the beginning of 2021, we began the United Nations
the inextricable link between Ocean and Climate. It Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development,
was clearly evident, even to a youthful mind, how during which we expect to witness a huge upsurge
the ocean was driving our water cycle, weather, and of knowledge about the ocean. I have no doubt that
climate; how it was responsible for delivering the WMO commitments to the Decade’s success will play
gentle rain that greened our fields, and how from a big part in our reaching the Decade’s agreed goals
time to time its powerful energy unleashed incredibly of achieving a safe, predicted and transparent ocean.
destructive storms.
I commend the contributors to this Bulletin for their
It still amazes me that – though the ocean covers descriptions of the good works being carried out
over 70% of the planetary surface and harbours around the world; and on behalf of all those dedicated
the majority of life on this planet – so much of our to maintaining a healthy ocean, I thank WMO for the
economic and scientific endeavour has just ignored choice of “the ocean, our climate and weather” as
the ocean. In fact, the great majority of the ocean’s its theme for this year’s World Meteorological Day.
properties remain unknown to science and we are
only scratching the surface of the potential benefits
of the sustainable blue economy. The time has come
for us to change all that for the better, always ruled by Peter Thomson
the principle of sustainability, in the process bringing United Nations Secretary-General’s
greater respect and balance to our relationship with Special Envoy for the Ocean
the ocean.

In these times of looming Climate Crisis, the United

Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres has said
that humanity has been waging a war against Nature
and that it’s time for us to make peace. What is clear
to me now, is that the ocean’s best interests must be
fully represented at the peace table. Along with the
 4 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

The Ocean, weather, climate and

the Earth system – new approaches
and looking forward together
By Louis W. Uccellini, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Director,
National Weather Service; Permanent Representative of the U.S. to the WMO, and Co-Chair
of the WMO-IOC Joint Collaborative Board (JCB)

WMO/Bruno Gonçalves
WMO BULLETIN 5

"If you like your 7-day weather forecast, thank an Oceanographer." - Craig McLean1

As a meteorologist, I’ve grown quite fond of this quote.

I refer to it frequently when I’m explaining to people
the tremendous changes that have taken place in the
meteorological community in recent years. I think it
captures the essence of our growing understanding
that weather, water, climate and oceans are all
inextricably linked, and so our work as individual
meteorological and hydrological agencies, as well
as our collaborative work together, must now reflect
an Earth System Science (ESS) approach. The “Earth
system” approach looks at the planet as a whole,
linking the atmosphere, the ocean and hydrosphere,
the terrestrial realm, the cryosphere and even the
biosphere. Each of these affects the others, and
understanding the oceans is integral to our ability
to predict our Earth System.1

A depiction of the Earth System Science framework linking

the atmosphere, ocean, hydrosphere, and cryosphere
Historic changes while including the fundamental biological and chemical
contributions and the effects of human factors.(Image
An outcome of this shift is an historic and significant
courtesy of University Corporation for Atmospheric
change in the way meteorologists do their jobs and Research)
accomplish their mission. Thanks to rapid technological
advancements and the proliferation of scientific data As society becomes increasingly vulnerable to
and information at our fingertips, we have moved from extreme weather, water and climate events, the need
making basic forecasting predictions to providing to take a more integrated ESS approach becomes
faster, more accurate, impact-based forecasts, and ever more essential. The demand for increasingly
products and services tailored to the needs of our users useful, accessible and authoritative meteorological,
and partners as they make decisions. These decisions hydrological and oceanographic information and
address society’s increasing vulnerability to extreme services is growing as we collectively seek to
weather, water and climate events, all influenced implement smart mitigation and adaptation decisions
by accelerating global climate change. In addition, by citizens, governments at all levels, and international
the world’s demand for environmental intelligence institutions.These information and services are critical
is increasing, often across multiple disciplines. This to support national agendas for disaster risk reduction
increases the importance of integrating our forecasts and climate adaptation as well as to build resilience to
and decision support across the weather, water and the impacts of high impact weather, climate and water
climate continuum. extremes.They also provide an essential underpinning
to support the development and implementation of
National Adaptation Plans under the Paris Agreement
1 NOAA, Assistant Administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric
Research; U.S. Representative to the IOC; and Member of
of the United Nations Framework Convention on
the WMO Research Board
 6 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Closing ceremony of the 21st session

Conference of Parties (COP21) of the
United Nations Framework Convention
on ClimateChange (UNFCCC) after
UN Photo/Mark Garten

the historic adoption of the Paris

Agreement.

Climate Change UNFCCC) and other UN system needs Through this process, WMO elevated the ocean as an
for humanitarian and crisis management. essential component of the Earth System. Members
welcomed this and agreed for WMO to move forward
In response to these challenges, the WMO is in the with a strategic approach ensuring that the work
process of historic change. In 2019, the 18th World across a broad spectrum of ocean-related activities
Meteorological Congress adopted several critical are connected within WMO and reach across essential
decisions to position the Organization and its Members partnerships.
to break down bureaucratic and disciplinary stovepipes
to better serve societal needs. One decision was
the adoption of a WMO Strategic Plan, which sets a WMO and Ocean Partnerships
new course for the WMO – ensuring its relevance for
decades to come by establishing a framework within Embracing an integrated, Earth System approach also
which Members can successfully address these needs. means that the ocean and atmosphere communities
By 2030, the WMO envisions a world where all nations, need to work closer together and collaborate across
especially the most vulnerable, are more resilient to the entire value chain, which includes the areas of
the socio-economic consequences of extreme weather, observations, data management, modelling and
climate, water and other environmental events; and forecasting, and services delivery. This value chain is
underpin their sustainable development through underpinned by multidisciplinary research as well as
the best possible services, whether over land, at sea capacity building. In support of this commitment (also
or in the air. Reflecting an integrated and inclusive in 2019), the 18th Congress and the 13th Session of the
approach, the new Strategic Plan: Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)
of UNESCO created the WMO-IOC Joint Collaborative
• Advances an Earth System, fully-coupled approach Board (JCB). The JCB is an advisory and coordination
to science and technology body to promote high-level collaboration and broad
engagement of the relevant bodies of the WMO and
• Advances understanding of stakeholder needs IOC with the intent to work together to advance our
and improving service delivery mutual objectives.

• Embraces the evolution and growth in partnerships The JCB is now developing a Joint Strategy to
and capacity development that enhance the maintain, strengthen and promote links among the
observation, forecast and service abilities of WMO weather, climate and ocean communities in order to
Members – including the growing private sector. achieve the Visions of both the WMO and the IOC.
WMO BULLETIN 7

Within that Strategy, we see opportunities to work

collaboratively to improve the scientific dialogue
and interdisciplinary services to make them more
accessible to developing countries. In addition,
we see opportunities to jointly advance the global
observation and numerical modelling system to
provide a foundation for efficiently addressing the
increasing requirements for decisions related to a
wide range of applications, from maritime safety and
transport, to agriculture, energy, health and water
resource management.

The JCB is well-positioned to provide an opportunity

to enhance coordination and cooperation among
the well-established regional bodies of the WMO
and the IOC such as the WMO Regional Associations
and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)
Regional Alliances. The National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of WMO Member
States and Territories and National Oceanographic
Institutes will now have an opportunity to collaborate
more closely to improve weather forecasts, including
for extreme events. In addition, the partnerships with
other UN bodies – for example, the International
Maritime Organization (IMO) for shipping and the Food
and Agricultural Organization (FAO) for fisheries – can
be harnessed to promote broader understanding
among the coastal states on ocean data collection and
science driven sustainable actions. The UN Decade
of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 2021-
2030 will offer another opportunity to demonstrate the
transformative role of the ocean in weather forecasts.

I believe we can successfully meet these global

challenges by proceeding in a spirit of partnership
among the many disciplines across the physical and
social sciences. We must take advantage of advances
in our field to ensure all Members have the capabilities
to effectively respond to increasing vulnerability to
extreme weather water and climate events. Together,
we can position ourselves to deliver the science and
services necessary for mitigating impacts of extreme
events and protecting lives and livelihoods globally.
8 Vol. 70
67 (1) - 2021
2018

Collaborating for a better future

By Sarah Grimes, WMO Secretariat
 WMO BULLETIN 9

Partnerships
“Individually we are one drop; but together we are an ocean.” – Ryunosoke Satoro

Sharing a common goal is the basis for strong partnerships. WMO, as the United Nations specialized agency
for weather, climate and water, works towards enhanced comprehension of the Earth System, including
the important links between ocean, climate and weather. A better understanding of the world in which we
live will help, amongst others, to improve weather forecasts, to gauge the impacts of climate change and
to manage water resources. These skills, in turn, will help countries to strengthen their ability to keep lives
and property safe from natural hazards – reducing the risk of disaster – and to maintain viable economies.
Toward this, WMO functions in a shared space with diverse partners to implement and support various
high level international frameworks. These include the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals,
the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change and the International Safety of Life at Sea Convention, amongst many.

In working across this shared space, partnerships are vital. Within the United Nations family, WMO and other
agencies with ocean focused activities form UN-Oceans. This interagency mechanism boosts the coordination,
coherence and effectiveness within the participating organizations with other international organizations.
The United Nations Decade of Ocean Science of Sustainable Development, which started in January 2021,
will heighten the close collaboration within UN-Oceans and other partners for harnessing further synergies
to pool ideas and proactively advance solutions for the sustainable development of the ocean.

WMO is proud to collaborate across a broad spectrum of partners toward the mutual goal of supporting
countries and serving the common good. The articles that follow spotlight three of WMO’s principal ocean
partners: the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO, the International Maritime
Organization (IMO) and the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO).

CBD CMS CTED DESA DOALOS ESCAP FAO IAEA ILO IMO IOC ISA ODA

OHRLLS UNCTAD UNDP UNEP UNESCO UNFCCC UNHCR UNIDO UNITAR UNU UNWTO WMO World
Bank

The UN-Oceans is made up of many participating agencies, collaborating to strengthen the collective efforts of ocean activities.
 10
10 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

The IMO and WMO – Providing

weather information to support
safe navigation
By Heike Deggim, Director, Maritime Safety Division, IMO Secretariat
IMO

“What maximum winds are expected in the storm representing 98.98% of global shipping by tonnage.3
area?”That is one of Standard Marine Communication The SOLAS Safety of Navigation chapter4 sets out
Phrases under the International Maritime Organization the Contracting Governments obligations to issue
(IMO) that officers in charge of navigation on ships, and disseminate weather information, forecasts
whatever their nationality, must be able to use and and warnings and encourages ships to collect and
understand in English. exchange meteorological data. The SOLAS chapter on
radiocommunications contains the provisions of the
The world’s 60 000 ocean going cargo ships are Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS)
operated by some 1.6 million seafarers, traversing the and requires ships to have equipment on board to
globe and carrying 11 billion tons of trade annually receive and transmit distress alerts, maritime safety
which represents 80% of global trade.1 High winds, information, search and rescue related communications
waves, fog and storms can be encountered on every and other general radiocommunications.
voyage – weather that impacts the safety of navigation.
This was recognized in the first International Convention Today, the close cooperation between IMO, WMO and
for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS), adopted in the the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO)
wake of the infamous 1912 Titanic disaster. The 1914 ensures that ships have automatic access to maritime
SOLAS treaty established the international ice patrol, safety information.This includes navigational warnings,
active to this day, to monitor icebergs in the North meteorological warnings and forecasts through the
Atlantic and included a “Code for the transmission IMO/WMO Worldwide Met-Ocean Information and
by Radiotelegraphy of Information Related to Ice, Warning Service (WWMIWS)5 and the World-Wide
Derelicts and Weather.”2 Navigational Warning Service (WWNWS)6. The three

IMO – established in 1948 as a specialized agency 3 IMO Status of Treaties

of the United Nations to develop standards for safe, 4 SOLAS regulation V/5, in particular, refers to WMO publication
environment-friendly, secure and efficient shipping WMO No.9, Information for Shipping (Volume D) through
resolution A.528(13).
– adopted and updated the SOLAS Convention,
5 IMO/WMO Worldwide Met-Ocean Information and Warning
which now has 166 Contracting Governments, Service − Guidance Document (resolution A.1051(27), as
amended)
6 World-Wide Navigational Warning Service (resolution
1 Review of Maritime Transport 2020 A.706(17), as amended) https://wwwcdn.imo.org/local-
2 Text of the Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea. Signed resources/en/KnowledgeCentre/IndexofIMOResolutions/
at London, January 20, 1914. Source: Open Library. MSCResolutions/MSC.469(101).pdf
WMO BULLETIN 11

Partnerships
Seafarers on ships
(Photo: Simon LeBrun)

Organizations coordinate to provide maritime safety research applications.8 Today, over 4 000 ships are
information,7 undoubtedly contributing to safer voyage registered in VOS; with 2 740 identified operationally
planning. in 2020, that have submitted more than 2.5 million
observations (Source: OceanOps, 2021). The reports
WMO works closely with IMO to support greater use from these ships are at times the only data available
of digitalization to integrate data on weather forecasts for remote areas, such as the polar regions.
and related information into maritime services in the
context of “e-navigation.” Their goal is to harmonize
the collection and integration of marine information to Weather contributes to ships lost
support safety and security at sea and the protection
of the marine environment. The main focus is on Over the past decades, the number of large ships lost
harmonizing the format and structure of maritime at sea has fallen from 130 in 2010 to 41 in 2019 – with a
services, taking user needs into account, leading rolling average of 959.This progress is widely attributed
ultimately to the implementation of improved and to improvements in shipping safety over the years due,
more efficient technical services. among other things, to wider implementation of IMO
treaties, an increased focus on safety management
IMO is aware that the scarcity of data from vast (IMO’s International Safety Management Code was
areas of the ocean (so-called data-sparse areas) to adopted in 1994) and more stringent global training
support basic weather forecasting, the provision of standards (under IMO’s STCW10 training treaty). IMO
marine meteorological and oceanographic services has also been leading capacity building work to
and climate analysis and research is a problem for support increased coordination of port State controls
both meteorology and oceanography. It encourages – the process by which States inspect ships arriving
mariners to participate in the WMO Voluntary in their ports to ensure standards are maintained.
Observing Ships (VOS) Scheme that welcomes sea- A mandatory Member State Audit Scheme is being
going vessels to join in the gathering of marine rolled out to assess States’ abilities to meet their
meteorological and oceanographic observations
to support forecasting, climate change studies and 8 Participation in the WMO voluntary observing ships scheme
(MSC.1/Circ.1293/Rev.1)
9 Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty’s (AGCS) Safety and
Shipping Review 2020
7 Promulgation of Maritime Safety Information (resolution 10 International Convention on Standards of Training,
A.705(17), as amended) Certification and Watchkeeping, 1978
12 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

responsibilities as flag, port and coastal States and are essential to global supply chains and economies
to offer technical assistance to fill any capacity gaps. worldwide.

Nonetheless, casualty statistics reveal that “bad Weather data and forecasting will always be key for
weather” is reported as a contributing factor in one shipping. IMO looks forward to continued cooperation
in five ships losses.11 While the investigation into with WMO in the coming years, to build on the systems
any accident may shed light on the precise chain of established to date and ensure the resilience and
events leading to a loss, there is a clear need for IMO, responsiveness of met-ocean data for shipping.
WMO and IHO to continue to work together to explore
ways to further improve accuracy and timeliness of
weather forecasting and its transmission.

The challenges ahead

Climate change has led to more frequent extreme

weather events, threatening livelihoods, particularly
in vulnerable communities.The maritime sector needs
to be aware of increased risks to shipping and ports
from more intense storms.

The IMO and WMO held the first joint Symposium

on Extreme Maritime Weather: Towards Safety of Life
at Sea and a Sustainable Blue Economy in 2019. Key
areas for urgent attention were identified, including
the need for maritime users to better understand
meteorological and ocean data.12 There are particular
challenges for ships trading in polar regions and for
ships not subject to mandatory IMO standards, such
as small coastal cargo ships, large pleasure yachts
and fishing vessels. There may be an abundance of
commercial weather data available via mobile devices,
but users need to know which data is authoritative.

Such issues must be addressed. The world has

focused on more immediate challenges during the
COVID-19 pandemic but it is now looking ahead to a
sustainable recovery. Throughout 2020 and into 2021,
seafarers and shipping have continued to deliver
vital goods, including food and medical supplies, in
the face of huge logistical challenges, in particular
regarding global crew changes. Ensuring the safety
of those seafarers against a variety of risks, including
weather risks, must be a priority, as those seafarers

11 Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty’s (AGCS) Safety and

Shipping Review 2020 www.agcs.allianz.com/news-and-
insights/news/safety-shipping-review-2020.html
12 public.wmo.int/en/media/news/wmo-imo-symposi-
um-addresses-extreme-maritime-weather
WMO BULLETIN 13

Partnerships
The IHO and WMO – over
a century of collaboration
By David Wyatt, Assistant Director, International Hydrographic Organization (IHO)

The catastrophic sinking of the SS Titanic on the focused on the provision of ice and meteorological
night of the 14/15 April 1912 was the catalyst for information and obliged ships to provide information
many innovations, initiatives and regulations that concerning ice and derelicts to other ships and
the maritime community now take for granted. One authorities ashore, although weather details were
of the most significant outcomes of the tragedy was optional. The text included particular instructions
the establishment of the International Conference on the ice, derelicts and weather information that
that drafted the original text of the Convention for should be provided but less so information related
the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS), which was signed to navigation and charting.
in London on 20 January 1914.
The International Hydrographic Bureau, now known
as the International Hydrographic Organization
(IHO), and the Meteorological Congress, now the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO), worked
closely together from the time of the first SOLAS
Convention in 1914 to maintain, develop and refine
maritime safety information (MSI). MSI covers both
navigational warnings, and meteorological forecasts
and warnings to ensure the safety of navigation and
safety of life at sea. The cooperation between the
two Organizations has led to a harmonization of
procedures and regulations and the standardization
of warning message formats for ease of transmission
and clarity of understanding by the maritime
customer.

The Radio Navigation Warning Service was developed

to fulfil the SOLAS requirement for ships to receive
safety broadcasts. It was the forerunner of the
The Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS), International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Global
signed in London on 20 January 1914 Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS), the
IHO/IMO World-Wide Navigational Warning Service
Several articles in the Convention cover the and the WMO/IMO Worldwide Met-Ocean Information
requirement for ships to be fitted with instruments and Warning Service. This cooperation continues with
to receive safety broadcasts, in particular information the operational implementation into the GMDSS of
on ice and the weather. It is not surprising that new mobile satellite service providers recognised
the initial SOLAS requirements were very much by the IMO.
14 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Two boats colliding caused

a double ship wreck off the
coast of Constanta, Romania
(Kongsberg Maritime)

Ocean floor data Delivering as one

The IHO and WMO have other common interests There is also a strong human element to the IHO and
and goals, including the provision of accurate early WMO collaboration. As part of the Joint1 Capacity
warning information to coastal communities, which Building Coordination effort, the IHO and WMO identify
remains a considerable challenge. WMO and the and enact opportunities to develop and build capacity
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) amongst the developing coastal states and small island
of UNESCO have both supported their members to developing states (SIDS). Their collaboration focuses
develop models to predict the impacts of coastal in particular on the Caribbean, Indian Ocean, Pacific
inundations including from tsunamis and storm Islands and the coastal states of Africa. The United
surge; however, the lack of complete high-resolution Nations “delivering as one” approach is at the centre
depth data for coastal zones, particularly coastal areas of this coordinated effort to maximize the impact of
shallower than 1 000 metres, degrades the accuracy limited resources and to ensure sustainability of the
of these models. Depth data, and the information it states to meet the objectives of the IHO and WMO
provides about the seafloor, is also central to a better as well as their obligations related to SOLAS, United
understanding of other ocean processes. Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)
and other international instruments.
The IHO has several initiatives aimed at increasing
the depth data of the ocean floor: In the century that has passed since the sinking of the
Titanic, the titles of the Organizations have changed
• a citizen science initiative, known as Crowdsourced and the methods have evolved, however, the goals
Bathymetry (CSB), and and objective have remained the same: safety of
navigation, safety of life at sea and protection of
• a joint IHO/IOC General Bathymetric Chart of the marine environment. These will be the corner
the Oceans (GEBCO) Project and its subordinate stones of IHO/WMO collaboration going forward.
Nippon Foundation-GEBCO Seabed 2030 Project. The digital world promises further breakthrough and
developments for the navigational and meteorological
All these initiatives aim to provide a complete picture information overlays that display on bridge systems
of the ocean floor from its deepest parts to the very and inform life-saving decisions.
edge of the land – information that is a vital foundation
dataset for models created by WMO and IOC Members.
As shape of the seafloor influences ocean circulation,
which in turn has an impact on the climate and the 1 IHO, IMO, WMO, IOC-UNESCO, International Association of
atmosphere, the depth data could also be used to Marine Aids to Navigation and Lighthouse Authorities (IALA),
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), International
refine and improve the accuracy of climate change Federation of Surveyors (FIG), International Marine Pilot’s
impact models. Association (IMPA)
WMO BULLETIN 15

Partnerships
From ocean and atmosphere interaction
to IOC and WMO cooperation
By Vladimir Ryabinin, Executive Secretary, Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission; Assistant Director General, UNESCO

The theme of the 2021 World Meteorological the quest for discovery, earlier the interest was
Day highlights the inherent links and long-term geographic, later scientific. The role of the ocean
cooperation between oceanography and meteorology. and ocean science for practical aspects of life has
Two centuries ago, considerations of the safety of been undervalued historically, until recently. At the
marine navigation were the decisive motivation for celebration of the 60th anniversary of IOC-UNESCO
calling the first conference on marine meteorological in 2020, one of its former Presidents, Geoff Holland,
observations. Held on 23 and 25 August 1853 in recalled that the need for real-time oceanographic
Brussels, the conference initiated common planning data exchange was not obvious even in the 1980s.
and cooperation between national meteorological
offices. During the Crimean War, the Great Balaklava We now live in the geological epoch of Anthropocene.
storm wreaked severe damage on the allied fleet on Human influence on the planet has increased to the
14 November 1854. Soon after, it was understood that level of geological factors. The United Nations 2030
it would have been possible to predict the storm had Agenda for Sustainable Development defines 17
there been a timely exchange of weather observations. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to survive
Continued consultations resulted in 1879 in the and live prosperously and in dignity in our epoch.
establishment of the International Meteorological Each of them is dependent on science, including
Organization, converted into the WMO on 23 March the Earth System science and its atmospheric,
1950, the date that we now celebrate as the World hydrologic and ocean components. The success of
Meteorological Day. UN organizations and agencies in supporting people
and peoples – and of Member States of IOC and
The paths of development for meteorology and Members of WMO – requires focus on our common
oceanography to their present state have been different. delivery for sustainability, co-design, good division of
When the WMO Convention came into effect in 1950, labour, equitable partnerships and the engagement
the community of hydrometeorological services of talent from the academic community working in
obtained a legal basis to sustainably and regularly the Earth System science.
conduct standard observations based on a mandate
for coordinated service delivery. Not long after, the
landmark concept for the World Weather Watch, the A successful collaboration
first WWW, was proposed in 1963. This quantum leap
was crucial, and subsequent improvements have Collaboration between IOC and WMO has been very
brought us today to a world that benefits from solid intensive almost since the birth of IOC on 14 December
day-to-day meteorological services, even without 1960. The milestones have been multiple. I remember
fully realizing the scale of that achievement and the following the progress of the joint IOC/WMO Integrated
complexity of the system behind it. Global Ocean Station System (originated in 1969),
when I was a student in the 1970s. A host of historic IOC
Progress on ocean science has been different. Ocean and WMO programmes were involved, including the
research has been largely based on curiosity and WMO- ICSU Global Atmospheric Research Programme
16 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

(GARP). Then, in the 1990s, IOC and WMO became

co-sponsors of the Global Climate Observing System
(GCOS), the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)
and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP).
More recently, IOC has been contributing to the ocean
dimensions of the annual WMO Statements on the
State of Global Climate and to the WMO-facilitated
report “United in Science.” Both Organizations also
provide scientific guidance to the continuing critical
negotiations under the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

From a governance point of view, the closest connection

between oceanography and meteorology was achieved
with the establishment of the Joint WMO-IOCTechnical
Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology
(JCOMM). During the 20 years of JCOMM (1999–2019),
the meteorological and oceanographic communities
truly worked together, adjusting practices where
necessary and delivering as one. This work goes on.
The JCOMM in situ Observations Programme Support
Centre (JCOMMOPS) continues today as a joint venture
called OceanOPS. IOC-affiliated experts are already
working in the new WMO constituent body structures
established by the WMO Governance Reform.

The work of the newly established WMO/IOC Joint The Establishment of the Joint WMO/IOC Technical
Collaborative Board (JCB) is rapidly acquiring Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology,
a personal history by Peter Dexter, was published in
momentum. In my interview in the 2015 in the WMO 2020 in celebration of the WMO 70th and IOC 60th
Bulletin, Volume 64(2), I referred to the “strong Anniversaries
complementarity of IOC and WMO [that] calls for
developing joint strategies and plans.” Now, six years including investing in observations of the physical
later, the JCB is indeed discussing, for the first time, a state of the ocean and striving to facilitate ocean data
Joint Collaborative Strategy of two our organizations. exchange for meteorological and climate applications.

WMO is an observer to many IOC programmes, IOC is also going through a period of critical
including the tsunami warning and mitigation system. re-evaluation and solidifying its position as the home
Many National Meteorological Hydrological Services of ocean science in the UN system. IOC serves as
(NMHSs) of WMO Members contribute to tsunami custodian agency for two SDG 14 (“Ocean SDG”)
monitoring and warning. The IOC International indicators. It coordinates the UN Decade of Ocean
Oceanographic Data and information Exchange Science for Sustainable Development (2021 – 2030).
programme (IODE) cooperates with the WMO Two of the Decade expected societal outcomes, namely
Information System (WIS). the “safe and predicted ocean,” are of particular
relevance to WMO.

Looking into the future As we move forward, strengthening our collaboration,

we need to reflect more comprehensively and
WMO, “the UN voice on weather, climate and water,” is accurately on the role of the ocean in atmospheric
at present rapidly strengthening its ocean dimension, processes to harness the immense opportunities.
WMO BULLETIN 17

Partnerships
Sketch of ship foundering, Black Sea, Crimean War (left), and Joint WMO-IOC IGOSS/MAOA1 Meeting, 1972 (right).

The joint IOC/WMO work on ocean observations

and data input for short-range predictions for high-
impact weather, including tropical and extratropical
cyclones, which depend on the state of the ocean, will
bring further breakthroughs. By exploiting sources
of predictability associated with the ocean, we will
be able to increase the skill of climate projections
and predictions for a range of valuable time scales.

There is an urgent need to address as a multi-

partnership the sustainability of the coastal zones,
which involves a number of oceanographic,
meteorological, hydrological, ecological, economic
and social issues.

This short analysis cannot mention all aspects of our

current cooperation nor the even more numerous
future possibilities for working together. However, I
hope it illustrates the paradigm that in the modern
world, true leadership is manifested through
partnership. 1

1 The Joint IOC Working Commitee for Integrated Global

Ocean Services System and the WMO Executive Panel for
Meteorological Aspects of Ocean Affairs
18
18 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Ocean-Climate Nexus
By Sabrina Speich, Professor, Ecole Normale Supérieure and Weidong Yu, Professor, Sun Yat-Sen
University
WMO BULLETIN 19

The ocean is a thin layer of saltwater that envelopes 71% of the Earth and contains 96% of its water. It contains

Ocean-Climate Nexus
the most varied biodiversity on the planet and is responsible for around 50% of gross primary production. It
also acts as the Earth’s thermostat, absorbing and transforming a significant portion of the radiation from the
sun that reaches the Earth’s surface. It provides water vapour to and exchanges heat with the atmosphere,
shaping the Earth’s weather and climate and its variability over a range of time scales, from hours to millennia.
It mitigates climate change by absorbing almost all the excess heat (89%: Von Schuckmann et al., 2020) and
a quarter of the CO2 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020) produced by human activities.

The ocean receives heat from the sun electromagnetic radiation, mainly in the tropical regions. There is a
constant back and forth exchange of water, energy and carbon between the ocean surface and the atmosphere
at all latitudes where it is not ice-covered. The ocean is not static and ocean currents redistribute the excess
heat received in the tropics towards higher latitudes, and towards the deep ocean. This transport is stronger
at high latitudes – in polar regions – where surface waters become denser and sink, mainly due to high heat
losses. The time scale of the transport and redistributions is highly variable, from season or year in tropical
regions to a decade in the surface layers, and several hundred years, even thousands of years in the deep layers.

The global transport of heat, fresh water and carbon through the ocean is not only comparable in size to that
of the atmosphere, but the ocean is the main reservoir of these properties for the atmosphere. The continuous
ocean-atmosphere exchange of these properties and their storage in the ocean makes the ocean a key regulator
of weather and climate at every time scale (from minutes to millennia: e.g., Smith et al., 2012; Doblas-Reyes
et al., 2013; Kirtman et al., 2013; Meehl et al., 2014), extending the predictability of the Earth system at these
scales. Seasonal and decadal prediction systems rely principally on accurately forecasting the fast dynamic
and slow ocean modes of variability and their role in modulating the atmosphere (Kirtman et al., 2013). In
order to ensure skilful – useful – predictions, models must be initialized with the ocean observations.

Timely and sustained ocean observations, both satellite and in situ, are crucial for the development of skilful
predictions that meet societal expectations and needs (Smith et al., 2012). Much of the information underlying
such predictions comes from globally-coordinated ocean basin scale observing systems. Major international
weather and climate forecasting groups, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
(ECMWF), the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS)
and WMO, have requirements for ocean information to enable a resilient and sustainable blue economy. In
addition, there is growing public recognition of the critical importance of information on current and future
ocean conditions to meet diverse user needs. These include better observation and forecasting of waves,
currents, sea level, water quality and the abundance of living marine resources as well as improved marine,
weather and climate prediction services.

*References are available online

20 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

The Role of the Ocean

in a Changing Climate
By Hans-Otto Pörtner, Alfred-Wegener-Institute, Bremerhaven; Co-Chair Working Group II,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)1

All life on Earth depends directly or indirectly on the climate change, and to lay the foundations for the
ocean and cryosphere (cryosphere is the term for measures that are needed to counteract such change."
the portion of the Earth where water is frozen). The
ocean and cryosphere support unique habitats, and Since its inception, the IPCC has produced five
are interconnected with other components of the Assessment Reports (ARs) and is now working on
Earth system through the global exchange of water, the Sixth. IPCC reports contributed to the creation
energy and carbon. The projected responses of the of the United Nations Framework Convention on
ocean and cryosphere to human-induced greenhouse Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is responsible for
gas emissions and global warming include climate the annual climate negotiations. The Fifth Assessment
feedbacks, changes over decades to millennia that Report (AR5) provided scientific input to the UNFCCC
cannot be avoided, thresholds of abrupt change and negotiations leading to the Paris Agreement in 2015.
irreversibility. Given these projections, governments In addition, the IPCC has produced methodology
requested in 2016 that the Intergovernmental Panel reports and special reports as well as technical papers
on Climate Change (IPCC) prepare a special report in response to requests from UNFCCC, governments
on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate.1 and international organizations.

Each IPCC report draws on the expertise of hundreds

The role of the IPCC of authors from all over the world, with many
more experts contributing to the reports through
The IPCC is the United Nations body for assessing the comments at the formal review stages. The Summary
science related to climate change. It was established in for Policymakers is finalized in an IPCC approval
1988 by the WMO and the United Nations Environment session with government representatives and authors
Programme (UNEP), and endorsed later that year by working on the text to ensure it is consistent with the
the UN General Assembly. The IPCC Secretariat is full assessment. IPCC reports draw authority from
hosted by the WMO in Geneva, with the Secretary this endorsement by policymakers and the scientific
of the IPCC appointed and funded by the WMO and community.
the Deputy Secretary appointed and funded by UNEP.

The IPCC prepares comprehensive assessments Ocean and cryosphere in a changing

of the state of the scientific knowledge of climate climate
change and associated ecological, social and economic
impacts, and potential response strategies. The IPCC The IPCC agreed in 2016 to prepare the requested
was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 jointly special report on the ocean and cryosphere as part of
with Albert Gore "for their efforts to build up and its AR6 work programme. The resulting IPCC Special
disseminate greater knowledge about man-made Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing
Climate (SROCC) was released in September 2019.
1 Disclaimer: The author contributed to this article in his More than 100 authors from 36 countries assessed the
personal capacity.The views and opinions expressed in this
article are the author's own and do not represent those of latest scientific literature for the report, referencing
the IPCC. about 7 000 scientific publications and considering
WMO BULLETIN 21

over 31 000 review comments from experts and 30 cm to 60 cm by 2100 even if greenhouse gas
governments. emissions are sharply reduced and global warming
is limited to well below 2°C. However, if greenhouse
This was a benchmark contribution to global gas emissions continue unabated, the increase will
understanding of the ocean, weather and climate, be between 60 cm to 110 cm by 2100 and reach much

Ocean-Climate Nexus
and focused attention at the “Blue” Conference of beyond over centuries. Sea level rise is not globally
the Parties (COP25) to the UNFCCC in Madrid, Spain, uniform but varies regionally – processes not driven
in December 2019. SROCC highlighted the need to by recent climate change can exacerbate sea level
prioritize strongly coordinated action to reduce risks rise regionally.
from changes in the ocean. It also underlined the
benefits of combining scientific and local or indigenous Sea level rise and more intense storm events will also
knowledge to develop suitable options to manage increase the frequency of extreme sea level events
climate change risks and enhance resilience. that occur during high tides with increasing risks for
many low-lying coastal cities and small islands. In
The ocean has absorbed more than 90% of the excess addition, increases in the intensity of tropical cyclone
heat in the climate system. By 2100, the ocean will winds and rainfall are exacerbating extreme sea level
have absorbed two to four times more heat than it events and coastal hazards such as storm surge.
has in the last 50 years if global warming is limited to Without major investments in adaptation, low-lying
2°C, and up to four to seven times more if emissions regions will be exposed to an increased flood risk and
are higher. In warmer ocean waters, the mixing some, including island nations, will likely become
between water layers is reduced, and with it the uninhabitable given the climate-related ocean and
supply of oxygen and nutrients for marine life. In cryosphere changes. When this will occur is difficult
addition, the ocean has absorbed between 20% to to assess in many regions. A lower rate and degree of
30% of human-induced carbon dioxide emissions ocean and cryosphere change would provide greater
over the past 40 years, causing ocean acidification. scope for adaptation opportunities.
Ocean warming, oxygen loss and acidification and
changes in nutrient supplies are already affecting the Another type of extreme event, marine heatwaves
distribution and abundance of marine life in coastal (periods of extremely warm near-sea surface
areas, in the open ocean and on the ocean floor. temperature that persist for days to months and can
extend up to thousands of kilometres) have become
There is overwhelming scientific evidence that this more frequent and intense since the early 1980s. Under
will result in significant consequences for ecosystems, future anthropogenic warming, marine heatwaves are
society and economies. Ocean warming and changes projected to further increase in duration, intensity,
in ocean chemistry are already disrupting the ocean frequency and spatial extent. Projections show that
food web, with impacts on marine ecosystems and frequencies of marine heatwaves will be 20 times
the people that depend on them. Communities that higher at 2° C warming in comparison to pre-industrial
depend highly on seafood may face risks in the future levels. Impacts of average and extreme warming
to nutritional health and food security. include mass mortalities of coastal species and large-
scale bleaching of coral reefs as well as shifting fish
Sea level has risen by around 15 cm during the 20th stocks with reduced fisheries results.
century. Sea level rise is due to meltwater from
glaciers, to the expansion of warming sea water
and to growing meltwater inputs from ice sheets in Knowledge and action
Greenland and Antarctica.The increasing contribution
from these ice sheets is accelerating the rate of sea The SROCC assessment reveals the benefits of
level rise, currently at 3.6 mm/year. ambitious mitigation and effective adaptation for
sustainable development and, conversely, the
Sea level will continue to rise for the next centuries. escalating costs and risks of delayed action. Knowledge
Projections show that sea level rise can reach around and action can make a difference. The ocean on
22 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Observed and modelled historical changes in the ocean and cryosphere since 1950, and projected future changes
under low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. For full caption see Figure SPM.1.
WMO BULLETIN 23

Ocean-Climate Nexus
Figure 2: Assessment of risks for coastal and open ocean ecosystems based on observed and projected climate
impacts on ecosystem structure, functioning and biodiversity. Impacts and risks are shown in relation to changes
in Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) relative to pre-industrial level. Since assessments of risks and impacts
are based on global mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), the corresponding SST levels are shown. For full caption
see Figure SPM.3d.

which we all depend can be supported by parallel References available online

actions: strong reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
accompanied by integrated responses, including the
restoration of degraded coastal ocean habitats and a
careful management of ocean resources.

Promotion of climate literacy and drawing on local,

indigenous and scientific knowledge systems enables
public awareness, understanding and social learning
about locality-specific risk and response potential.
Sustained long-term monitoring, sharing of data,
information and knowledge and improved context-
specific forecasts – including early warning systems to
predict more extreme El Niño/La Niña events, tropical
cyclones and marine heatwaves – help to manage
negative impacts from ocean changes.

The IPCC forthcoming Sixth Assessment Report

will provide the latest knowledge of the ocean in
Working Group I (Physical Science Basis of Climate
Change) and Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability).
24
24 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Global Climate Indicators:

Ocean heat content, acidification,
deoxygenation and blue carbon
By Kirsten Isensee1, Katherina Schoo1, John Kennedy2, Karina von Schuckmann3, Omar Baddour4,
Maxx Dilley4

WMO has published annual State of the Global Climate content are thus often limited to the period from
reports since 1993. In 2020, it published a five-year 1960 onwards, and to a vertical integration from
climate report for 2015 to 2019 incorporating data and the surface down to a depth of 700 metres (m). With
analyses from the State of the Global Climate across the deployment of the Argo network of autonomous
this period.The initial purpose of the annual report was profiling floats, which reached target coverage in
to inform Members on climate trends, extreme events 2006, it is now possible to routinely measure ocean
and impacts. In 2016, the purpose was expanded to heat content changes down to a depth of 2000 m
include summaries on key climate indicators to inform (Roemmich et al., 2019) (Figure 1).
delegates in Conference of Parties (COP) of the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change The summary on ocean heat content, provided by
(UNFCCC). The summaries cover the atmosphere, Mercator Ocean, France, states that the increasing
land, ocean and cryosphere, synthesizing the past emission of greenhouse gases is causing a positive
year’s most recent data analysis. There are four ocean radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere –
related climate indicators: ocean heat content, sea called the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) – which is
level, sea ice and ocean acidification. driving global warming through an accumulation
of heat energy in the Earth system (Hansen et al.,
This article highlights the heat content summary 2011; Rhein et al., 2013; von Schuckmann et al., 2016).
from the State of the Global Climate 2020, ocean The EEI is the portion of the forcing that the Earth’s
acidification, deoxygenation and blue carbon, covered climate system has not yet responded to (James
in the WMO State of the Global Climate 2018, 2019 Hansen et al., 2005), and is an indicator of the global
and 2020.1 2 3 4 warming that will occur without further change in
forcing (Hansen et al., 2017). Ocean heat content is
a measure for this heat accumulation in the Earth
Ocean Heat Content system from a positive EEI, the majority (~90%) is
stored in the global ocean, it is thus a critical indicator
Ocean heat content measurements back in the for the changing climate.
1940s relied mostly on shipboard techniques, which
constrained the availability of subsurface temperature Consequently, ocean warming is having wide-reaching
observations at global scale and at depth (Abraham impacts on the Earth climate system. For example,
et al., 2013). Global-scale estimates of ocean heat ocean heat content increase contributes to more
than 30% of observed global mean sea-level rise
through the thermal expansion of sea water (WCRP,
1 Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO
Secretariat 2018). Ocean warming is altering ocean currents
2 Met Office Hadley Centre, UK (Yang et al., 2016; Voosen, 2020; Yang et al., 2020,
3 Mercator Ocean international, France Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018) and indirectly altering
4 WMO Secretariat storm tracks (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; Trenberth
WMO BULLETIN 25

et al., 2018;Yang et al., 2016).The implications of ocean Over the past decade, the oceans absorbed around
warming are widespread across Earth’s cryosphere 23% of annual anthropogenic CO 2 emissions
too, as floating ice shelves become thinner and ice (Friedlingstein et al. 2020). Absorbed CO 2 reacts
sheets retreat (e.g. Serreze and Barry, 2011, Shi et with seawater and changes the pH of the ocean. This
al. 2018, Polyakov et al., 2017; Straneo et al., 2019; process is known as ocean acidification. Changes in

Ocean-Climate Nexus
Shepherd et al., 2018). Ocean warming increases pH are linked to shifts in ocean carbonate chemistry
ocean stratification (Li et al., 2020) and, together with that can affect the ability of marine organisms, such
ocean acidification and deoxygenation, can lead to as molluscs and reef-building corals, to build and
dramatic changes in ecosystem assemblages and maintain shells and skeletal material. This makes it
biodiversity, to population extinction and to coral particularly important to fully characterize changes
bleaching (e.g. Gattuso et al., 2015, Molinos et al., in ocean carbonate chemistry. Observations in the
2016, Ramirez et al., 2017). open ocean over the last 30 years have shown a clear
trend of decreasing pH (Figure 2). There has been a
decrease in the surface ocean pH of 0.1 units since the
OHC 0–300 m
4 OHC 0–700 m
OHC 0–2 000 m
start of the industrial revolution (1750) with a decline
OHC 700–2 000 m
Ensemble Mean 2020 of 0.017-0.027 pH units per decade since late 1980s
2
(IPCC 4AR and SROCC). Trends in coastal locations,
however, are less clear due to the highly dynamic
0
coastal environment, where a great many influences
OHC, J/m2

–2
–
such as temperature changes, freshwater run-off,
nutrient influx, biological activity and large ocean
–4 oscillations affect CO2 levels. In order to characterize
the variability of ocean acidification, and to identify
–6
the drivers and impacts, a high temporal and spatial
resolution of observations is crucial.
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year

Figure 1: 1960–2019 ensemble mean time series and

ensemble standard deviation (2-sigma, shaded) of global
ocean heat content anomalies relative to the 2005–2017
climatology for the 0 to 300 m (grey), 0 to 700 m (blue),
0 to 2000 m (yellow) and 700 to 2000 m depth layer
(green).The ensemble mean is an outcome of a concerted
international effort, and all products used are referenced
in the legend of Fig. 2. The trends derived from the time
series are given in Table 1. Note that values are given for
the ocean surface area between 60°S–60°N, and limited
to the 300 m bathymetry of each product, respectively.

Source: Updated from von Schuckmann et al. (2020).

The ensemble mean OHC (0-2000 m) anomaly (relative
to the 1993-2020 climatology) has been added as a red
point, together with its ensemble spread, and is based
on CMEMS (CORA), Cheng et al., 2017 and Ishii et al., Figure 2: pCO2 and pH records from three long-term
2017 products. ocean observation stations. Top: Hawaii Ocean Time-
Series (HOTS) in the Pacific Ocean; Middle: Bermuda
AtlanticTime Series (BATS); Bottom: European Station for
Time-Series in the Ocean Canary Islands (ESTOC) in the
Ocean Acidification Atlantic Ocean. Credit: Richard Feely (NOAA- PMEL) and
Marine Lebrec (IAEA OA-ICC), IOC-UNESCO, GOA-ON.
The IOC-UNESCO, supported by the Global Ocean
Acidification Observing Network (GOA-ON), has In line with previous reports and projections, the
provided a summary on ocean acidification for the State of the Global Climate 2020 report states that
annual State of the Global Climate since 2017. ocean acidification is ongoing and that global pH
26 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Figure 3: Oxygen Minimum Zones (blue) and areas with coastal hypoxia (red; dissolved oxygen concentrations
<2 mg/L) in the ocean. Coastal hypoxic sites mapped here are those in which anthropogenic nutrients are a major
cause of oxygen decline (data from Diaz and Rosenberg, 2008 and Diaz, unpublished. Figure adapted after Isensee
et al., 2015, Breitburg et al. 2018, GO2NE 2018).

levels continue to decrease. More recently established Since the middle of the last century, there has been
sites for observations in New Zealand show similar an estimated 1% to 2 % decrease (i.e. 2.4-4.8 Pmol
patterns, while filling important data gaps in ocean or 77-145 billion tons) in the global ocean oxygen
acidification monitoring in the southern hemisphere. inventory (Bopp et al., 2013; Schmidtko et al., 2017). In
Availability of operational data is currently limited, but the coastal zone, many hundreds of sites are known to
it is expected that the newly introduced Methodology have experienced oxygen concentrations that impair
for the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Indicator biological processes or are lethal for many organisms.
14.3.1 (“Average marine acidity (pH) measured at Regions with historically low oxygen concentrations
agreed suite of representative sampling stations”) are expanding, and new regions are now exhibiting
will lead to an expansion in the observation of ocean low oxygen conditions. While the relative importance
acidification on a global scale. of the various mechanisms responsible for the loss
of the global ocean oxygen content is not precisely
known, global warming is expected to contribute
Deoxygenation of open ocean and to this decrease directly because the solubility of
coastal waters oxygen decreases in warmer waters, and indirectly
through changes in ocean dynamics that reduce ocean
The IOC-UNESCO Global Ocean Oxygen Network ventilation, which is the introduction of oxygen to
(GO2NE) coordinates the annual report’s summary the ocean interior. Model simulations for the end of
on deoxygenation, with a focus on understanding this century project a decrease of oxygen in the open
its multiple aspects and impacts. ocean under both high and low emission scenarios
(Figure 3).
Both observations and numerical models indicate that
oxygen is declining in the modern open and coastal In coastal areas, increased river export of nitrogen
oceans, including estuaries and semi-enclosed seas. and phosphorus since the 1950s has resulted
WMO BULLETIN 27

in eutrophication of water bodies worldwide. In climate mitigation, coastal blue carbon (also known
Eutrophication, leading to higher primary production as "coastal wetland blue carbon"; Howard et al. 2017)
and decomposition of this material increases is defined as the carbon stored in mangroves, tidal
oxygen consumption and, when combined with salt marshes and seagrass meadows within the soil,
low ventilation, leads to the occurrence of oxygen the living biomass above ground (leaves, branches,

Ocean-Climate Nexus
deficiencies in subsurface waters. Climate change stems), the living biomass below ground (roots and
is expected to further amplify deoxygenation in rhizomes) and the non-living biomass (litter and dead
coastal areas influenced by anthropogenic nutrient wood). When protected or restored, coastal blue
discharges, decreasing oxygen solubility, reducing carbon ecosystems act as carbon sinks (Figure 4a).
ventilation by strengthening and extending periods They are found on every continent except Antarctica
of seasonal stratification of the water column, and and cover approximately 49 million hectares (Mha).
in some cases where precipitation is projected to
increase, by increasing nutrient delivery.

The volume of anoxic regions of the ocean’s

oxygen minimum zones has expanded since 1960
(Schmidtko et al., 2017), altering biogeochemical
pathways by allowing processes that consume fixed
nitrogen and releasing phosphate, iron, hydrogen
sulfide (H2S) and, possibly, nitrous oxide (N2O). The
relatively limited inventory of essential elements, like
nitrogen and phosphorus, means such alterations
are capable of perturbing the equilibrium of the
chemical composition of the ocean. We do not know Figure 4 (a): In intact coastal wetlands (from left to right:
mangroves, tidal marshes, and seagrasses), carbon is
to how positive feedback loops (e.g. remobilization of
taken up via photosynthesis (purple arrows) where it gets
phosphorus and iron from sediment particles) may sequestered long-term into woody biomass and soil (red
speed up the run away from equilibrium. dashed arrows) or exhaled (black arrows).

Deoxygenation affects many aspects of the ecosystem

services provided by the ocean and coastal waters.
For example, deoxygenation impacts biodiversity and
food webs, and can reduce growth, reproduction and
survival of marine organisms. Low-oxygen-related
changes in spatial distributions of harvested species
may force people to change their fishing locations and
practices and can reduce the profitability of fisheries.
Deoxygenation can also increase the difficulty of
providing sound advice on fishery management.
Figure 4 (b): When soil is drained from degraded coastal
wetlands, the carbon stored in the soils is consumed
Coastal blue carbon by microorganisms that release CO 2 as a metabolic
waste product when they exhale. This happens at an
increased rate when soils are drained and more oxygen
The IOC-UNESCO together with the Blue Carbon is available, which leads to greater CO2 emissions. The
Initiative (co-organized by Conservation International, degradation, drainage and conversion of coastal blue
IOC-UNESCO and IUCN) supports scientists, coastal carbon ecosystems from human activity (i.e. deforestation
managers and governments in measuring carbon and drainage, impounded wetlands for agriculture,
dredging) results in a reduction in CO2 uptake due to
stocks in coastal and marine ecosystems. Together
the loss of vegetation (purple arrows) and the release of
they contribute on the blue carbon indicator to the globally important greenhouse gas emissions (orange
annual report. arrows).
28 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Currently, for a blue carbon ecosystem to be

recognized for its climate mitigation value within
international and national policy frameworks, it is
required to meet the following criteria:

1. Quantity of carbon removed and stored or

prevention of emissions of carbon by the
ecosystem is of sufficient scale to influence climate

2. Major stocks and flows of greenhouse gases can

be quantified

3. Evidence exists of anthropogenic drivers

impacting carbon storage or emissions

4. Management of the ecosystem that results

in increased or maintained sequestration or
emissions reductions is possible and practicable

5. Management of the ecosystem is possible without

causing social or environmental harm.

However, the ecosystem services provided by

mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses are
not limited to carbon storage and sequestration.
They also support improved coastal water quality,
provide habitats for economically important and
iconic species, and protect coasts against floods and
storms. Recent estimates revealed that mangroves are
worth at least US$1.6 billion each year in ecosystem
services.

Despite their importance for ocean health and human

wellbeing, mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses
are being lost at a rate of up to 3% per year. When
degraded or destroyed, these ecosystems emit the
carbon they have stored for centuries into the ocean
and atmosphere and become sources of greenhouse
gases (Figure 4b).

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) estimates that as much as a billion tons of CO2
being released annually from degraded coastal blue
carbon ecosystems – mangroves, tidal marshes and
seagrasses – which is equivalent to 19% of emissions
from tropical deforestation globally (IPCC 2006).

References are available online

WMO BULLETIN 29
29

Climate and Ocean research:

The World Climate Research

Ocean-Climate Nexus
Programme (WCRP)
By Michael Sparrow, WMO Secretariat

Ocean issues are gaining visibility due to various IOC ocean science efforts are organized under a
organizational and political developments at the collection of activities. In addition to WCRP, these
international level. These include: are coordinated through a number of small projects
and teams on themes such as ocean carbon and
• The growing Blue Economy acidification, nutrients, eutrophication and deoxy-
genation, climate science (WCRP), climate change
• The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, and ecosystem impacts, and marine plastics. The IOC,
which motivates the development of multi-hazard in partnership with WMO and other UN agencies,
impact-based services for decision-making support led the development of the UN Decade of Ocean
Science for Sustainable Development, which has
• An increasing awareness of the importance of the potential to strengthen the international ocean
the ocean for understanding, predicting and research effort. The Joint WMO-IOC Collaborative
responding to climate variability and change Board (JCB), coordinates joint ocean related activities
and sustainable development, as highlighted by between the two Organizations.
publications such as the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on the ISC connects its two UN partners to a very broad global
Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate scientific constituency not usually directly connected
to intergovernmental agencies. For example, there is
• The United Nations Ocean Conferences, the International Union of Geophysics and Geodesy
Sustainable Development Goals and Decade that includes the International Association of Physical
of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development Sciences of the Ocean, which convenes regular inter-
(2021-2030). An opportunity to drive innovation, national scientific conferences and fora. There is also
advance ocean science. the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR)
that focuses on promoting international cooperation
International ocean research is largely coordinated in planning and conducting oceanographic research
through the International Oceanographic Commission and solving methodological and conceptual prob-
(IOC) of UNESCO, International Science Council (ISC) lems that hinder research. SCOR includes capacity
and WMO and their partnerships. WMO has significant building in a number of its research programmes and
interests in the development and delivery of ocean working groups, mainly targeting the development
information to underpin the breadth of research, of observational methodologies and best practices.
applications and services delivered by its Members, A recently signed cooperation agreement between
thus the Organization is involved in a range of ocean ISC’s Future Earth and WCRP will more closely link
activities. The World Climate Research Programme, their science activities, particularly in what is often
co-sponsored by WMO, IOC-UNESCO and International referred to as ‘Actionable Science.”
Science Council (ISC), offers a prime example of this
coordination and partnership in climate research. WMO climate-ocean research activities are coordinated
through the WCRP. One of the core WCRP projects is
30 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

the Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability ocean, the key subsystem that regulates the Earth
and Change (CLIVAR), which launched in 1995. The climate. For instance, CLIVAR initiatives have been
WCRP “Grand Challenges” includes the Regional instrumental in the development of El Niño Southern
Sea Level Rise and Coastal Impacts and Near Term Oscillation (ENSO) seasonal prediction systems and
Prediction (www.wcrp-climate.org/grand-challenges/ pioneered decadal predictions. The development
grand-challenges-overview). It also has a number of coupled models as part of CLIVAR contributed
of new “Lighthouse” activities that cover different significantly – through the development of coupled
aspects of the climate system, of which the ocean climate modelling capabilities and of climate model
component is critical. One example is My Climate intercomparison projects – to understanding the
Risk, which aims to develop a new framework for response of the climate system to anthropogenic
assessing and explaining regional climate risk to increases in radiatively active gases and changes
deliver climate information that is meaningful at the in aerosols.
local scale, and which will include regional sea level
aspects (www.wcrp-climate.org/wcrp-ip-la). CLIVAR – through the advancement of climate observing
systems, process studies and coupled climate models
– has greatly advanced our understanding of the
Climate and Ocean – Variability, processes driving ocean circulation and its role in the
Predictability and Change coupled climate system. We now have unique, new
observing, modelling and reanalysis capabilities that
CLIVAR focuses on international scientific research support scientific investigations into ocean dynamics
coordination in the ocean. CLIVAR’s mission is to and variability and this is due in large part to CLIVAR.
understand the dynamics, the interaction and the In addition, CLIVAR embraces and often formally
predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere endorses many new activities and projects that develop
system. To this end it facilitates observations, analysis outside its framework but that demonstrate clear
and predictions of changes in the Earth’s climate relevance to its goals and objectives. CLIVAR organizes
system, enabling better understanding of climate topical scientific workshops aimed at communication,
variability and dynamics, predictability, and change, collaboration education, and furthering the careers
to the benefit of society and the environment in which of young scientists. WCRP, through CLIVAR, makes
we live. It aims to improve: fundamental contributions to the knowledge and
understanding of the climate system and which
• Ocean system models underpin the provision of operational climate services.

• Ocean-observing systems The CLIVAR legacy includes the implementation

and development of multinational and multi-
• Ocean data, synthesis and information systems platform observing networks in all ocean basins, the
development of climate models with realistic ocean
• Knowledge transfer and stakeholder feedback components and the development of ocean reanalyses.
These bridge observations and modelling through data
• Education, capacity building and outreach. assimilation. In-situ elements of established observing
systems include global deployment of surface drifters
CLIVAR builds on the success of the Tropical Ocean and profiling Argo floats, ocean gliders, arrays of
Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project and the World moorings in both tropical and extra-tropical locations,
Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), both advanced full-depth sampling of the water column from ships of
the scientific understanding of ocean circulation and the repeat hydrography program, etc. Since the late
atmosphere-ocean interactions. 1970s, satellite observations of the ocean have become
a crucial part of the global observing system. CLIVAR
CLIVAR research has provided fundamental knowledge works closely with the Global Climate Observing
about the drivers of variability and predictability in System (GCOS) and Global Ocean Observing System
the coupled climate system with emphasis on the (GOOS), using the “Framework for Ocean Observing”
WMO BULLETIN 31

Ocean-Climate Nexus
Science Directions in a Post
COP21 World of Transient
Climate Change: Enabling
Regional to Local Predictions
in Support of Reliable Climate
Information

Stammer, D., Bracco, A., Braconnot, P., Brasseur, G. P., Griffies, S. M., & Hawkins, E. (2018). Science directions in a
post COP21 world of transient climate change: Enabling regional to local predictions in support of reliable climate
information. Earth’s Future, 6, 1498–1507. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000979

to guide its implementation of an integrated and • Provision of coordinated observations, analyses

sustained ocean observing system. and predictions of variability and change in the
Earth’s climate system
As WCRP moves into a new strategic planning and
implementation phase, CLIVAR’s new objective is • Detection, attribution and quantification of climate
to describe, understand and model the dynamics variability and change
of the coupled climate system, emphasizing ocean-
atmosphere interactions and identifying the processes • Development and evaluation of climate simulations
responsible for climate variability, change and and predictive capabilities.
predictability on subseasonal-to-seasonal, interannual,
decadal and centennial time scales. In detail, CLIVAR To this end, CLIVAR coordinates the international
will critically contribute to the new WCRP strategy by research in climate and ocean science, facilitating
covering the following topics: cooperation amongst national and multinational
efforts, thereby enabling global climate research
• Understanding the ocean’s role in climate beyond the regional and institutional capabilities
variability, change, and transient sensitivity of any individual nation. It facilitates observations,
analysis, predictions and projections of variability and
• Understanding the ocean’s role in shaping the changes in the Earth’s climate system, enabling better
hydrological cycle and distribution of precipitation understanding of climate variability and dynamics,
at global and regional scales predictability, and change, to the benefit of society
and the environment in which we live. Through its
• Understanding the drivers of regional climate Panels, Research Foci, workshops, summer schools
phenomena that provide predictability on different and conferences, CLIVAR continues to bring together
time scales researchers from all over the world (see e.g. Stammer
32 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

et al., 2018). In doing so, CLIVAR develops a strong, pace and final amount of rise depending substantially
multidisciplinary international community of scientists on future greenhouse gas emissions.
at all stages of their career to coordinate the efforts
required to measure, simulate and understand Over the coming decades, regional sea level changes
coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics, and to identify and variability will significantly deviate from global
processes responsible for climate variability, change mean values. The detailed sea level change along
and predictability. coastlines can therefore potentially be far more
substantial than the global mean rise and will depend on
The development of reliable regional climate change many processes involving the ocean, the atmosphere,
information that can be provided on time scales from the geosphere and the cryosphere. Societal concerns
seasonal to centuries and beyond, to the benefit about sea level rise originate from the potential impact
of humanity and life on Earth, is central to future of regional and coastal sea level change and associated
climate science strategies. CLIVAR through its work changes in extremes on coastlines around the world,
contributes directly to reaching those goals. It is including potential shoreline recession, loss of coastal
anticipated that in a 5- to 10-year timeframe much infrastructure, natural resources and biodiversity, and
progress will be achieved in expanding theoretical in the worst case, displacement of communities and
process understanding, in improving climate models migration of environmental refugees.
through better representation of important climate
processes in numerical models and in improving Local sea level rise and extreme events can have
regional climate predictions and associated climate significant impacts on coastal zones. On subsiding
information on time scales from seasonal to decadal. coasts, the impacts of resulting sea level rise are already
This will build firmly on efforts required to improve demonstrable in some coastal cities and deltas. It is
and sustain the Global Climate Observing System very likely that a large fraction of the world’s coasts will
(GCOS). be affected by climate-induced sea level rise. Detailed
impacts, however, will vary strongly from region
CLIVAR, like many WCRP activities, relies on to region and coast to coast. They cannot be easily
national support, provided through annual voluntary generalized, as changing mean and extreme coastal
contributions and crucially on the hosting of water levels depend on a combination of near shore
International Project Offices. CLIVAR has two such and offshore processes, related to climatic but also non-
offices:The International CLIVAR Global Project Office, climatic anthropogenic factors. These include natural
hosted by the Ministry of Natural Resources First land movement arising from tectonics, volcanism or
Institute of Oceanography in Qingdao, China, and compaction; land subsidence due to anthropogenic
the International CLIVAR Monsoon Project Office, extraction of underground resources; and changes in
hosted by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology coastal morphology resulting from sediment transport
in Pune, India. induced by natural and/or anthropogenic factors.

The overarching goal of the Sea Level Grand Challenge

Regional Sea-level Change and Coastal has been to:
Impacts
• establish a quantitative understanding of the
Recognizing that coastal sea level rise is among the natural and anthropogenic mechanisms of regional
most severe societal consequences of anthropogenic to local sea level variability
climate change, WCRP formed a Grand Science
Challenge on Regional Sea-level Change and Coastal • to promote advances in observing systems
Impacts. required for an integrated sea level monitoring

Contemporary global mean sea level rise will • to foster the development of sea level predictions
continue over many centuries as a consequence of and projections that are of increasing benefit for
anthropogenic climate warming, with the detailed coastal zone management.
WMO BULLETIN 33

Ocean-Climate Nexus
A roadmap to sustained observations of the Indian Ocean for 2020-2030 https://doi.org/10.36071/clivar.rp.4.2019

Over its lifetime, the Grand Challenge has addressed from the user community and scientists who work
the following imperatives, led by six parallel, but closely with a range of stakeholders (policy makers,
interconnected, working groups: coastal engineers etc.). The connection to services
has been a thread throughout the Grand Challenge’s
1. An integrated approach to historic sea level lifetime, working closely with IOC and with the Global
estimates (paleo time scale) Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) as appropriate.
Connections to the UN Ocean Decade are being made.
2. Quantifying the contribution of land ice to near-
future sea level rise The Grand Challenge will come to an end at a final
conference planned in July 2022 in Singapore.
3. Contemporary regional sea level variability and However, the activities of the Grand Challenge will
change continue both within CLIVAR and within the new
Lighthouse activities.
4. Predictability of regional sea level

5. Sea level science for coastal zone management Focus on the polar Oceans

6. Global sea level change In terms of weather and climate, what happens in the
polar regions does not stay at the poles. Rapid changes
A key tenet of this activity is that is not only led in the polar regions are fundamentally impacting
by scientists. The four co-chairs of this activity, are weather and climate patterns around the world.
34 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

These regions are historically difficult to observe and impediments in internationally-coordinated Southern
understand due to the hostile conditions for making Ocean research. WCRP, through this Southern Ocean
observations, and complex interactions between Region Panel has submitted, with SCAR and others,
the ocean, ice and atmosphere. The regions are also including from the private sector, a proposal for a
challenging to model as, in addition to the above, Southern Ocean Regional Decade Programme to the
compromises need to be made in terms of model UN Decade to “improve the understanding of the
projections at the poles. Southern Ocean and its role in the Global Ocean”. It
will engage various stakeholders – scientists, policy
Polar regions represent an important testbed for makers, industry and non-governmental organizations
developing and improving the seamless Earth System – to develop and facilitate research priorities and
approach.The WMO World Weather Research Program actions for the Southern Ocean taking environmental,
(WWRP) Polar Prediction Project has moved forward economic and social dimensions into account. A
in advancing coupled assimilation methods in an relatively new CLIVAR/CliC Northern Oceans Panel
operational framework. At the same time, the WWRP serves a similar role in the Arctic region.
and WCRP communities are exploiting theYear of Polar
Prediction field campaign for modeling improvements.
A consolidation phase is under development that National Meteorological and Hydrological
could provide key research questions for future Earth Services
System projects.
In terms of the role of ocean-climate research in
The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) itself built on the meeting the needs of NMHSs, the science produced
earlier legacy of the International Polar Year 2007- by WCRP scientists is crucial in a number of areas,
2008 (IPY), co-sponsored by WMO and the ISC. The including:
IPY encouraged greater interactions between the
disciplines, the engagement of social sciences and • Supporting the co-design (by science and
indigenous peoples as well as the next generation of operations) of improved seasonal to decadal
scientists. Many of the polar observational networks predictions
and groups set up during the IPY are still active. A
YOPP Data Portal (yopp.met.no) is currently under • Supporting the underlying research required
development. to improve our understanding of the processes
involved in providing improved skill in forecasts
The Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW) was established over a range of timescales
to provide continuity in the focus on polar regions,
within the framework of WMO. While the WMO • Improving the understanding of the dynamics, the
Polar Space Task Group and the Association of Early interaction and the predictability of the coupled
Career Polar Scientists provide cryosphere focused ocean-atmosphere system for a range of time
coordination between space agencies. scales, including modes of variability (such
as ENSO) and abrupt changes to the system
WCRP has a number of polar-ocean related activities, (including extremes)
usually lead by CLIVAR and its sister Core Project CliC
(Climate and Cryosphere) and often in partnership • Understanding how low frequency variations
with other polar-focused organizations. For example, of ocean mean state impact on sub-seasonal
the CLIVAR/CliC/SCAR (Scientific Committee on variability, and on sub-seasonal extreme events,
Antarctic Research) Southern Ocean Region Panel such as ocean heat waves that result in coral
which aims to serve as a forum for the discussion bleaching
and communication of scientific advances in the
understanding of climate variability and change in the • Understanding the role of the ocean in the
Southern Ocean and to advise CLIVAR, CliC, and SCAR planetary energy balance.
on progress, achievements, new opportunities and
WMO BULLETIN 35

References

Doblas-Reyes, F. J., GarcíaSerrano, J., Lienert, F.,

Biescas, A. P., and Rodrigues, L. (2013). Seasonalclimate
predictability and forecasting: status and prospects.

Ocean-Climate Nexus
WIREs Clim. Change 4, 4245–4268. doi: 10.1002/
wcc.217

Friedlingstein, P., et al..: Global Carbon Budget 2020,

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.
org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020.

Kirtman, B., Stockdale, T., and Burgman, R. (2013).

“The Ocean’s role in modeling and predicting seasonal
to-interannual climate variations,” in Ocean Circulation
and Climate: A 21st Century Perspective, 2nd Edn
eds G. Siedler, S. Griffies, J. Gould, and J. Church
(Sydney: Academic Press), 625–643. doi: 10.1016/
b978-0-12-391851-2.00024-6

Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Boer, G., Burgman, R.,

Branstator, G., Cassou, C., et al. (2014). Decadal
climate prediction an update from the trenches.
Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 95, 243–267. doi: 10.1175/
BAMS-D-12-00241.1

Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., and Kirtman, B. (2012).

What is the current state of scientific knowledge with
regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting. Environ.
Res. Lett. 7:015602. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015602

Stammer, D., Bracco, A., Braconnot, P., Brasseur,

G. P., Griffies, S. M., and Hawkins, E., 2018: Science
directions in a post COP21 world of transient climate
change: Enabling regional to local predictions in
support of reliable climate information. Earths Future,
6. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF00097

von Schuckmann, K., et al. 2020. Heat stored in the

Earth system: where does the energy go? Earth Syst.
Sci. Data, 12(3), 2013–2041. https://doi.org/10.5194/
essd-12-2013-2020
36 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Learning from the past to

understand the future: historical
records of change in the ocean
By Rob Allan1, Kevin Wood2, Eric Freeman3, Clive Wilkinson4, Axel Andersson5, Andrew Lorrey6, Philip
Brohan7, Martin Stendel 8, John Kennedy7

To better anticipate future weather and climate impacts capable models and data-driven reanalysis systems,
on the Earth system and society, there is an ever- has transformed the value of historical weather data
increasing demand for longer and higher resolution to climate science.
terrestrial and marine databases of the weather. The
construction of these baseline climate data resources The main source of historical marine data are weather
requires a massive effort to recover and translate anecdotes, remarks and observations recorded in
handwritten records to digital format, and then quality logbooks and diaries written aboard ships that
control, integrate and serve huge amounts of historical sailed local seas or crossed the oceans of the world
weather data to a new generation of modelling and for centuries. Standardized tabulations of non-
retrospective analysis (reanalysis) systems running instrumental information and measurements of marine
on the world’s most powerful computers. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 weather appeared at the beginning of the sixteenth
century, while more systematic observations using
Over the last decade there has been growing high-quality meteorological instruments commenced
recognition of the importance of historical marine in the mid- to late eighteenth century. The first
weather data to fill major gaps in existing data efforts to establish international coordination and
coverage. Marine data, covering the 70% of the Earth standardization in marine meteorology arose with
that is ocean, are a critical (and for most of history the Brussels Maritime Conference (1853). It is from
only) means to quantify the various roles that the this period that naval and merchant ships of many
global ocean play in climate regulation over time, nations began to systematically collect and record
and hence provide the best means to foresee the weather and sea-surface observations by the millions.
future trajectory of the climate and its likely impact Today these records provide the data needed to drive
on every aspect of life. Indeed, the urgent need to state-of-the art models and reanalyses.
anticipate future climate, combined with increasingly

1 Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth COADS to ICOADS

(ACRE) Manager, Met Office Hadley Centre, United Kingdom
2 University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate,
In the marine data rescue field, a major effort was
Ocean & Ecosystem Studies, and NOAA Pacific Marine
Environmental Laboratory, U.S. initiated in the 1980s to produce the most complete
3 University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Satellite collection of surface marine weather observations.The
Earth System Studies, and NOAA National Centers for Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS)
Environmental Information, U.S.
was the outcome of those efforts and included newly
4 ACRE OCEANS/CSW Associates-Data Services, U.K.
available repositories of digitized marine weather
5 Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany
observations from multiple sources, typically produced
6 National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New
Zealand and stored on punch cards at that time. Following
7 Met Office Hadley Centre, U.K. increased international support and contributions to
8 Danish Meteorological Institute, Denmark the dataset’s development over the years, the project
WMO BULLETIN 37

was renamed to the International Comprehensive ACRE initiative, and its ACRE Oceans chapter (e.g. the
Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) in 2002 to EU Copernicus C3S Data Rescue Service [DRS] and the
better reflect the important contributions made by UK Newton Fund projects of ACRE China under CSSP
international partners and global data managers. China, ACRE/C3S DRS/WCSSP South Africa, ACRE/
C3S DRS Argentina and ACRE/C3S DRS Antarctica).
Over its existence, ICOADS has also achieved These initiatives have included new, interlinked marine
recognition as the major repository and access point citizen science data rescue foci under Old Weather
for historical marine weather observations recovered (2013->), Weather Detective (2014-2017) and Southern
from digitization efforts, small and large.This includes Weather Discovery (2018->). The Danish National
historical weather data recovered and digitized by the Archives has also identified a collection of more than
CDMP (Climate Database Modernization Program: 7000 archive boxes of ship-based weather data dating
2000-2011), CLIWOC (Climatological Database for from 1650 onward that are suitable for digital imaging
the World's Oceans 1750-1850: 2001-2003), RECLAIM and transcription. All the marine data digitized by
(RECovery of Logbooks And International Marine the above will be provided to ICOADS and the new
data: 2004->), International Atmospheric Circulation EU Copernicus Global Land and Marine Observations
Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE), 2007->) Dataset (GLAMOD) (Thorne et al., 2017).
initiative (Allan et al., 2016) and the CoRRaL (UK
Colonial Registers and Royal Navy Logbooks: 2008-
2009) projects.

Monitoring
The most current version of ICOADS is Release 3:
ICOADS R3.0 (covering 1662-2014) (Freeman et al.,
2017), with monthly near-real-time extensions from
2015-present. Figure 1, from the latter publication,
provides a comparison of years 1800 to 2014 between
ICOADS Releases R2.5 and R3.0, showing the gains
made from the numerous data recovery efforts. The
significance of these rescue efforts is shown, in both
volume and temporal coverage, and are critical to
further expanding this major collection and providing
public access to more ocean data. As ICOADS looks Figure 1: Major historical digitized and external archive
to modernize and expand its collections in the near marine data sources add to ICOADSv3, from 1800-2014.
future for a new dataset release, historical data rescue Horizontal black lines show the time range of the original
and digitization efforts will be vital in providing new marine data sources. The annual numbers of reports are
plotted as curves (logarithmic scales on the vertical axis),
sources of data for the dataset, further enabling better blue for the previous ICOADS R2.5, and red for ICOADS
scientific understanding of historical environmental R3.0. Marine data coverage prior to 1800 is sparse, and
conditions over the global oceans. that following 2007 continues to grow annually. Source:
Freeman et al. (2017).
Since the release of ICOADS R3.0, concerted efforts
have been made to expand the recovery, imaging
and digitization of historical global marine weather ACRE Oceans
data. Much has been undertaken by a mix of ongoing
and new data rescue projects and citizen science The great bulk of the data rescued (imaged/scanned
activities under Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, German and catalogued) by ACRE Oceans was achieved
Weather Service), National Oceanic and Atmospheric through the efforts of just two individuals, focusing
Administration (NOAA) and the University of on three different archives in the United Kingdom –The
Washington working with the U.S. National Archives, Met Office (UKMO), Hydrographic Office (UKHO) and
and the efforts of the Global Surface Air Temperature National Archives (TNA) – and working with a number
(GloSAT), (2019->) project, or linked to the international of other repositories around the world (Argentina,
38 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Australia, Chile, New Zealand, Scandinavia, South logbooks, it is one of the world's largest archives of
Africa and U.S.). Some of these historical marine this kind.
data have since been digitized using both traditional
keying and citizen science initiatives. In 2019, ACRE The historical archive of ship logbooks consists
Oceans scanned 2.6 million, and had digitized 1.5 of several logbook collections starting in 1828.
million, historical marine observations. For just The first observations are from regular nautical
the Antarctic and the Southern Ocean regions, the logbooks. All other collections consist of standardized
following tabulation provides a comprehensive picture meteorological logbooks that were introduced by
of the imaging/scanning and digitization that has Maury (1840 to 1860). Starting in 1868, the German
been undertaken. It should be noted, that much of Marine Observatory provided their own meteorological
the rescued data were recovered from just a few journals to German merchant ships. The weather
archives and much more has been uncovered but observations from these logbooks were used to
not imaged. There are a number of other archives produce charts of weather, winds and currents. Based
around the world that could potentially hold such on this climatological knowledge and the experience of
data but have not yet been visited. the sailors, the German Marine Observatory compiled
sailing instructions for merchant ships in return for
It is important to recognize that historical marine data their voluntary observations – a system that is still in
are not only found in naval and merchant shipping existence with the International Voluntary Observing
logbooks. There are meteorological and oceanographic Ship (VOS) Scheme.
data in marine surveying and hydrographic documents
(e.g. Remark Books), material connected with the
regulation of whaling and fisheries, marine cable
laying, transportation of mail (packet ships), yachts,
vessels carrying convicts and settlers and many other
types of documents other than ship logbooks. The bulk
of this material still needs to be addressed – imaged/
scanned and/or digitized, catalogued and archived.

It is also worth mentioning that new archives, and

new types of documentation are always coming to
light – for instance at the UKHO, ACRE Oceans found
workbooks used to compile observations of meridian
distances to establish the longitude of places, also
had twice daily pressure and air temperature. These
had been overlooked before because the observations
were obscured by all the other figures around them.

Deutscher Wetterdienst

DWD holds in its Seewetteramt (Hamburg Marine

Meteorological Office) an archive of several collections Monday, 14 December 1733. At the marker it says that
of original historical worldwide weather records from there was wind from the west with a strength of bramsejls
ships and also German coastal and overseas land kuling (i.e. topgallant sail).
stations. The archive originates from the Deutsche
Seewarte (German Marine Observatory), a predecessor The overall number of marine observations in the
of DWD that existed from 1868 to 1945 in Hamburg. historical archive of the Seewarte is estimated to
With a stock of more than 37 000 meteorological ship be at least 23 million observations, and likely to be
considerably more. Efforts to digitize the logbooks
WMO BULLETIN 39

(a) (b)

Figure 2: Ships’ positions where new-to-science marine-meteorological and sea-ice observations have been recovered
from historical records (a. Northern Hemisphere, b. Southern Hemisphere). Data extracted via the Old Weather
citizen-science project from U.S. federal sources, primarily Navy and Coast Guard vessels are shown in yellow.
Positions in orange are data extracted from logbooks by the Southern Weather Discovery (SWD) citizen-science

Monitoring
project run by the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA). Approximately 1-2%
of ~130K images with maritime weather observations that have been supplied to NIWA have been keyed through
SWD, which is expected to accelerate in coming years to improve Southern Hemisphere spatiotemporal coverage.

started in the early 1940s and millions of observations metadata records has been lost over time. In the
were transferred to punch cards at that time. Since course of data exchange programmes, some data
then, the digitization effort has been continued at has been duplicated in several archives.
DWD in several phases. Until now, about 15 million
observations have been digitized and added to a Hence, a further challenge, in parallel with the
digital data base. integration of newly digitized data, is the consolidation
and homogenization of the existing data archives. A
A sophisticated workflow has been established to priority for DWD in this context is the assignment of
digitize the contents of the ship journals, consisting missing ship IDs to each observation. This will allow
of several steps: gathering all metadata for a specific for identifying data gaps and applying a better-quality
logbook, optical scanning of the logbooks and finally control on entire ship voyages leading to a significantly
transcription (keying) of the contents. All digitized improved quality of the existing data collections.
data from each step are stored in a database system.
Finally, quality-controlled data are included in the The efforts to digitize DWD’s historical archives
DWD’s marine meteorological archive as well as contents are ongoing. Apart from meteorological ship
ICOADS. logbooks, several archives of land stations are currently
being digitized, quality controlled and submitted to
Digitization efforts, not only at DWD, have been international databases (more information on DWD
ongoing for decades in different projects, most of data rescue activities are available here).
which have been detailed in this piece. Consequently,
the different data archive contents are fragmented, The DWD digitization effort still relies mostly on keying
e.g. some logbooks were only partly digitized, or the the observations by hand. A variety of old German
database entries originate from different digitization handwriting and unusual data sheet layouts are a
periods. For other datasets, the links to the respective persistent challenge for automatic text recognition
40 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

systems. Future machine-based transcription may after the U.S. Civil War (1861–1865). There are roughly
significantly speed up the transcription. However, 22 700 logbooks in the National Archives that date
the (meta)data management of the rescued data, between 1801 and 1941. Until 1915, most volumes
as well as the handling and scanning of the old and contain about one year’s worth of observations, and
fragile documents still require a lot of careful work then from 1915–1941 logbooks were generally bound
to create high quality modern data sets originating in monthly volumes. Conservatively estimating that
from these valuable historic data sources. only half of these logbooks contain all 24-hourly
observations that would amount to 75 500 000 weather
records to be recovered. There are undoubtedly tens
NOAA/University of Washington/U.S. of millions more unrecovered weather records from
National Archives the World War II era and after.

NOAA and the University of Washington (Cooperative

Institute for Climate, Ocean & Ecosystem Studies) have
been collaborating with the U.S. National Archives
since 2011. During this period, the project has produced
high-resolution digital images of 4 618 volumes of
federal ship logbooks, dating between 1844 and
1955. These are all publicly available worldwide on
the National Archives Catalog. These assets have so
far produced about 1.5 million new-to-science hourly
weather records via the Old Weather citizen-science
project. As shown in figure 2a, more than 600 000
weather and sea-ice observations pertaining to the
Arctic have been further enhanced by painstaking The United States Steamer “Powhatan” in a cyclone of
reconstruction of ship tracks to hourly resolution Hatteras – From a sketch by G.T. Douglass, U.S.N. – [See
using the ‘dead reckoning’ and pilot information Page 374.] in Harper’s Weekly, May 12, 1877.
contained in the logbooks (i.e. data on the ship’s
course and distance run, bearings and ranges from
known landmarks). Danish Meteorological Institute/National
Archives of Denmark
The process of creating digital surrogates, transcribing
and quality-controlling weather data from them, and The National Archives of Denmark contain huge
passing these data into ICOADS and the International collections of logbooks. Starting as early as the mid-
Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD) is ongoing. Sea-ice seventeenth century, it has been possible to identify
data recovered by Old Weather have been used for more than 7 000 archive boxes, filling more than 700
validation of a model-based reconstruction of Arctic metres of shelves with logbooks and other maritime
sea-ice volume over the last century (Schweiger et. data. Only a very small part of this data has been
al 2019, Wood et. al 2019), and transcribed weather digitized to date.
data are also available for machine learning research
on handwriting recognition (HCR). Data has been made available by many seafaring
nations recently, but the Danish data, apart from its
The enormous potential for data rescue is illustrated sheer age, is special in two respects:
by the size of the U.S. collection that remains largely
unutilized. Beginning in 1847, the logbooks of the 1. There were regular ship connections between
U.S. Navy, Coast Guard/Revenue Cutter Service and Denmark and the other parts of the Realm of
Coast Survey contain 24-hourly weather records per Denmark. This enables us to obtain a wealth of
day, and include 7–10 variables per hour, although information about wind, weather, temperature
not all variables were uniformly acquired in fact until
WMO BULLETIN 41

and ice extent en route to Greenland and Iceland have been compared to marine observations rescued
and back. by other scientific organizations.

2. The Øresund duty was a tax that every ship In recent years, NIWA has driven the Southern Weather
passing through the Øresund between Denmark Discovery (SWD) citizen science platform hosted
and today’s Sweden (Danish at the time) had to on Zooniverse (southernweatherdiscovery.org),
pay. In certain years, this duty made up about a recovering ~250 000 Southern Hemisphere marine
third of the Danish national budget. Therefore, the weather observations, promoting meteorological
king decreed that ships would not pass without data rescue and completing experimentation on
paying their duties, and ships were installed at replicated data keying (Fig. 2b). They are also actively
several places along the sound and at the Great collaborating with Microsoft on an Artificial Intelligence
Belt to enforce this. The logbooks of these ships (AI) for Earth project that is comparing manually
are interesting because they have a high temporal transcribed observations and those completed by
resolution and go back to the seventeenth century. automatic means.

The National Archives and the Danish Meteorological

Institute are setting up a project, named ROPEWALK Challenges and actions
(Rescuing Old data with People's Efforts: Weather and
climate Archives from LogbooK records), to digitize The principal challenges faced by the marine data
this enormous amount of data. Machine-learning rescue community fall largely into two categories:

Monitoring
techniques will be used as much as possible, then access to historical records and conversion from
the remaining data will be digitized by volunteers manuscript to digital format.
as has been the case in other comparable projects.
The digitized data will be quality-checked and made In the first category, ship logbooks, which tend to have
available to the scientific community. the largest quantities of high-quality marine weather
data, are often 100 or more years old and considered
documents of national significance.The state archives
National Institute of Water and that typically have responsibility for the care and
Atmospheric Research preservation of these sometimes-fragile documents
are understandably cautious about handling. However,
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric it is not uncommon to encounter other barriers, such
Research (NIWA) in New Zealand have been conducting as monetization of access (beyond the cost of the
meteorological data rescue as a contribution to ACRE imaging itself), or other embargoes on access that
(via ACRE Pacific and ACRE Antarctica) since 2009. effectively limit uses at the scale necessary for data
They also have been passing data to the ISPD through rescue.
that channel. During the past decade, their focus has
primarily been on recovery of southwest Pacific and In the second category, conversion to an actionable
Southern Hemisphere high latitude meteorological digital format is also a significant bottleneck. At present,
observations spanning the period 1800–1950. this step relies on manual transcription, either via
double-blind keying or citizen-science (crowdsourcing).
NIWA hold millions of observations dating back These approaches are quite worthwhile if targeting
to the mid-1850s, and ongoing efforts are creating particular regions or time periods with sparse data,
digital surrogates and a metadata catalogue to verify such as the Arctic or Southern Ocean, or a discrete
physical document holdings and keyed data held in research question. However, a large-scale conversion
digital archives. Several other high-value historic of the vast quantities of unused marine weather data
meteorological documents have been located in New that are known to exist will require an efficient AI/
Zealand (Lorrey and Chappell, 2016), which have been machine-learning solution.
used to reconstruct synoptic weather patterns and
42 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Finally, digitized records must be as complete as of the Earth System from such a comprehensive
possible with detailed metadata (where possible).This reanalysis may prove to be of the utmost importance
is especially important when dealing with data biases, in the future.
which depend on knowledge about parameters such
as solar radiation, wind speed and direction, humidity
and air temperature. For metadata, information like References are available online
where thermometers are stored or sheltered, locations
of screens, observing platforms and details of other
instrumentation can all be important. For sea surface
temperatures, there is rarely information about
instrumentation for engine room measurements or
what type of ocean sampling bucket was used, and
often little about how measurements were made (Kent
and Kennedy, 2021). Documentation of methods,
such as can sometimes be found in marine observer
handbooks and etc, are also important. In conjunction
with the above is the need to reprocess legacy data so
that as much can be obtained from them as possible,
but also to assess what is complete and what is not.
All of these efforts would benefit immeasurably from
access to more sustainable funding sources.

Actions which are beginning to address the above

needs include:

• In the U.S., NOAA has recently elevated both

citizen-science and machine auto-transcription
development with targeted funding opportunities
for small business and via the NOAA High
Performance Computing and Communications
Program’s Information Technology Incubator.

• Private philanthropy has been increasingly

engaged in supporting climate science in areas
where funding has traditionally been challenging

• The coming together of EU Copernicus, WMO,

ACRE, DWD, UK Newton Fund, NOAA, NIWA and
similar initiatives and funding streams, which are
all increasingly working in conjunction with the
National Weather Services, to rebuild and enhance
fundamental data infrastructure to meet the needs
of high-performance reanalysis and emerging AI
applications in this domain.

Once in digital format, the technology exists to

assimilate every marine weather observation collected
by every ship, every day, for the past two centuries.
What is learnt about the long-term state and future
WMO BULLETIN 43

Ocean Observations Programmes to

Monitor Climate and Address Societal
Needs: The Role of the OOPC
By Sabrina Speich, Professor, Ecole Normale Supérieure; Co-chair OOPC and Weidong Yu, Professor,
Sun Yat-Sen University; Co-chair OOPC

The ocean absorbs, transports, redistributes and approach. In 1996, the Ocean Observations Physics and
stores heat in such a way that it acts as a regulator Climate (OOPC) panel was formed under three United
of climate. More than three billion people rely on the Nations programmes – the Global Ocean Observing
ocean for their livelihoods. The ocean also provides a System (GOOS), the Global Climate Observing System
wealth of socio-economic, environmental and cultural (GCOS) and the World Climate Research Programme
benefits to all mankind. Understanding the ocean is (WCRP) – to address this challenge. 2 Established
key to harnessing and sustaining those benefits, while in 1991, 1992 and 1993 respectively, these three

Monitoring
at the same time preserving its health. programmes have the same co-sponsors: WMO,
the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
But the ocean is vast. While many nations have ocean of UNESCO (IOC-UNESCO), and the International
monitoring programmes in place, these are often Scientific Council (ISC)3.
limited to the area within their respective Exclusive
Economic Zones (EEZs). Large expeditions and The OOPC was given three goals:
experimental campaigns into remote ocean basins
have collected invaluable data that have changed 1. Foster the development and agreement of an
our understanding, not only of the ocean, but of international plan for sustained global ocean
the whole Earth; however, they have not provided observations in support of the goals of its
a comprehensive picture of all its surface. Satellites co-sponsors
changed this to a great extent, but only for the upper
layers of the ocean. Whilst humanity has mapped 2. Suggest mechanisms for the evaluation and
the surface of Mars extensively using a range of evolution of the agreed plan
orbiting space probes, only 20% of the seafloor has
been mapped.1 Even after decades of oceanographic 3. Liaise between all entities involved in global
campaigns, experimental platforms and satellites ocean observations.
– as well as other technological headways like the
revolution of autonomous sensors – the picture is These goals have evolved with time and the initial
not complete, we have obtained snapshots, not a focus on physical variables has expanded. This article
comprehensive view. will describe the achievements and progress of OOPC
over the last 25 years.
The design of an observing system to monitor the ocean
in all its width and depth in a sustainable, continuous
way, is fundamental challenge that requires a global
2 The OOPC superseded the Ocean Observing System Devel-
opment Panel (OOSD, 1990–1994), which had been charged
1 The mapping the entire ocean seabed is the very ambitious with the design of an ocean observation system for climate.
goal of the Nippon Foundation-GEBCO (General Bathymetric 3 GOOS and GCOS have an additional sponsor: the United
Chart of the Oceans) Seabed 2030 Project. Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
44 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Late nineties: Conceiving the pieces ensuring both the development of a sustained ocean
observing system and providing input to regional and
The initial focus of OOPC was the open ocean, while basin process-studies. Building on its input to the
other GOOS panels and groups were in charge of establishment of GODAE, OOPC’s indirect sponsorship
the enclosed and shelf seas and near-shore coastal was vital to bringing climate change considerations
seas. In its first years, OOPC produced a number of into the plan for the development in 2002 of what
reviews prompted by the arrival of new technologies is now the Group for High Resolution Sea Surface
and observing capabilities. Two fine examples are Temperature (GHRSST) project.
the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS)
in view of new satellite capability and the Ship-of- The second International Conference on the Ocean
Opportunity Program (SOOP). The panel was also Observing System for Climate (OceanObs’09) was
involved in forming the Global Ocean Data Assimilation held in Venice, Italy, in September 2009, with OOPC
Experiment (GODAE, 1997), which placed new demands as one of its leaders. OceanObs’09 recognized the
on the ocean observing system, and in developing the utility of ocean observations beyond climate and the
concept for the very successful and still operational need to expand beyond physical variables to include
Argo program4. biogeochemical and ecosystem variables within the
ocean observing system.Thus, a key recommendation
OOPC’s early work culminated in the First International from OceanObs’09 was for international integration and
Conference on the Ocean Observing System for coordination of interdisciplinary ocean observations.To
Climate, held in San Rafael, France, in October 1999 this end, there was strong engagement with the various
(OceanObs’99). OceanObs’99 cemented the foundations ocean communities involved in ocean observations
of what we now know as the sustained ocean observing and with end-users. The OceanObs’09 sponsors also
system for climate. From OceanObs’99, there emerged commissioned aTaskTeam to respond to this challenge,
a consensus within the ocean observing communities leading to the release in 2012 of A Framework for
to undertake an internationally coordinated sustained Ocean Observing (FOO) (Lindstrom et al., 2012;Tanhua
global ocean observing effort for ocean physical and et al., 2019).
carbon variables with respect to climate applications.

2010-2019: Beyond physical variables

2000–2009: Establishing the networks and towards societal needs

During the 2000s, OOPC worked with various partners The FOO applied a systems approach to sustained
to support the establishment of several sustained global ocean observing. It used Essential Ocean
observing networks, building on the OceanObs’99 Variables (EOVs) as the common focus and defined
recommendations.These include the establishment of the system based on requirements, observations,
the OceanSITES moored time-series initiative in 1999, and data and information as the key components.
and development of the International Argo array of Notably, it incorporated both coastal and open ocean
profiling floats in 2000. OOPC’s involvement was critical observations. The assessment of feasibility, capacity
to brokering data agreements and incorporating these and impact for each of the three system components
new networks into existing programmes, such as the was based on readiness levels, that is to say concept,
SOOP and the global eXpendable BathyThermograph pilot and maturity. The FOO provides guidelines for
(XBT) network, and in connecting to the growing evolving the observing system in the service of a broad
number of satellite missions. In 2001, OOPC conducted range of applications and users. To support expansion
a review of theTropical Moored Buoy Array. During this of the ocean observing system, GOOS expanded to
period, OOPC partnered with WCRP in the Climate and include three disciplinary panels: OOPC became the
Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR) physics and climate panel, International Ocean Carbon
project and collaborated with other WCRP panels, Coordination Project (IOCCP) provided oversight
of ocean biogeochemistry, and a new biology and
4 https://argo.ucsd.edu/ ecosystems Panel (BioEco) was formed. OOPC retains
WMO BULLETIN 45

Monitoring
State of the networks that integrate Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) monitored by the WMO/IOC-UNESCO
in situ Observations Programme Support Centre (OceanOPS) as well as other networks such as GLOSS and Argo

the dual roles of ocean panel of GCOS and physics agendas to meet societal needs is becoming more
panel of GOOS. Delivery to GCOS requires OOPC to important than ever (Visbeck, 2018).
work across all components of GOOS, coordinating
ocean input and interacting with its sibling Terrestrial
(TOPC) and Atmosphere (AOPC) GCOS panels. After 2020: The future of ocean
observations and coordination efforts
The OceanObs’19 conference sought to further align
science, technology and human capacity in ocean In this article we have described the history and some
observing to address growing and urgent societal successes of OOPC, with its multiple responsibilities
needs. It emphasized the importance of ocean towards GCOS, GOOS and WCRP. Given the increasing
observations as the key source of information on complexity of the mix of observing platforms and
natural hazards – from harmful algae and bacteria sensor technologies, and the ever-expanding
blooms, tsunamis, storm surges, marine heatwaves and users, and their differing and sometimes divergent
storms to other extreme weather events – ecosystem requirements, OOPC faces new challenges.To address
health and biodiversity, ocean pollution, and sea these challenges, the questions that OOPC will need
level change. It highlighted the need for observations to consider are (Sloyan et al., 2019):
to support ecosystem-based management, marine
and weather forecasting, climate predictions and • How do we evolve the observing system to meet
projection, marine safety and navigation, decision a broader range of applications, ranging from
support for climate adaptation, deep-ocean exploration, extreme events (e.g., cyclones, storms, marine
and seafloor mapping, among many other areas. The heatwaves, and coastal inundation forecasting)
need to integrate ocean observation and research to climate monitoring and supporting ecosystem
services?
46 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Ocean Basin Observing Systems: some successes

Looking back into the early 1980s, one of the most successful GOOS stories started with the initial
implementation of the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array, led by the U.S. National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in the tropical central to the eastern Pacific Ocean. It
was later extended to the west with the introduction of TRITON array, contributed from Japan
Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). The ten-year period from 1985 to
1994 witnessed the development of TAO-TRITON array covering the entire tropical Pacific Ocean,
which represented an immense contribution to build up one basin scale ocean observing system to
address the scientific and social requirements, that is the monitoring, understanding and predicting
of El Niño and its global impacts. The initiative was triggered by the surprising super El Niño in
1982/82, which demonstrated that nature is always far more complex than it appears. The success
of El Niño observation, theory, prediction and services is regarded as one of the most important
advances in ocean and climate science in the 20th century. The Tropical Pacific Observing System
2020 project (TPOS 2020), aims to evolve the 30-year-old TAO-TRITON into a more sustainable and
fit-to-purpose observing system.

The Indian Ocean basin tells another story. There, the ocean observation system started early in
21sth century, lagging behind its Pacific neighbour. The Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS)
was proposed and discussed at OceanObs'99 in San Rafael, France. The CLIVAR-GOOS Indian
Ocean Panel was then established to plan and develop IndOOS. IndOOS was fast tracked through
international cooperation, with contributions from Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South
Africa and the U.S. in valuable ship time and/or instrument investment. The recent IndOOS decadal
review produced a revised version of the plan to be implemented from 2021.

• What actions do we need to take to keep exercising In January the UN Decade of Ocean Science for
the system through reviews; engaging users, Sustainable Development 2021-2030 was launched.
innovation, broadening participation? It offers a once-in-a-life-time opportunity to seek
solutions to improve the knowledge of the ocean
• How do we continually evaluate and innovate and transform its status according to the Sustainable
the observing system to ensure it performs as Development Goals (SDGs). The focus of the Decade
an integrated system? is on science and several directions for research
and development have been put forward. However,
• How do we maintain the interest and momentum theoretical knowledge is not sufficient. It is necessary
for sustaining observations, when much of the to identify who must do what and to stimulate a move
funding is on short term cycles?5 from scientific knowledge to actionable solutions.
In seeking to answer the questions above, OOPC
5 Unlike satellite observations (which rely on public funding, will continue to support GOOS, GCOS and WCRP
as well as funding from the industry) and marine mete- in connection with the ocean observing community
orological observations (integrated in the operational,
and other stakeholders to engage in transformational
sustained observation programs carried out by the National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services), in situ ocean programs in the framework of the Decade, to advance
observations are mostly funded by research projects of a fit-for-purpose ocean integrated observing system
a limited duration (the longest commitment is typically
5 years), with serious risks for the continuity of the time
to serve society across all requirements.
series.
WMO BULLETIN 47

References

Lindstrom, E., Gunn, J., Fischer, A., McCurdy, A.,

and Glover, L. K. (2012). “A Framework for Ocean
Observing,” in Proceedings of the Task Team for an
Integrated Framework for Sustained Ocean Observing,
UNESCO 2012 (revised in 2017), IOC/INF-1284 rev.2,
Venice.

Sloyan, BM. et al (2019). Evolving the Physical Global

Ocean Observing System for Research and Application
Services Through International Coordination. Front.
Mar. Sci. 6:449. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00.

Tanhua, T. et al., (2019). What We Have Learned From

the Framework for Ocean Observing: Evolution of the
Global Ocean Observing System. Front. Mar. Sci., 20
August 2019. doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00471.

Visbeck, M. (2018). Ocean science research is key

Monitoring
for a sustainable future. Nat Commun 9, 690. doi.
org/10.1038/s41467-018-03158-3.
48 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Global Cryosphere Watch –

sea-ice information for science
and operations
By Petra Heil1, Penelope Wagner2, Nick Hughes3, Thomas Lavergne4 and Rodica Nitu5

Sea ice is a key indicator of climate change. While for Physics and Climate (OOPC) 6, monitoring the
changes in sea ice affect the access to polar oceans Essential Ocean Variable (EOV) and Essential Climate
and surrounding seas and their resources, and are an Variable (ECV) for sea ice.
important factor for ensuring the safety of navigation
in the high latitudes. Furthermore, changing sea-ice Observing sea ice is not trivial due to scale, remote
cover impacts ocean circulation and weather patterns, access, extreme operating conditions, high associated
locally and in the mid and low latitudes.1 2 3 4 5 costs. Data acquisitions and subsequent assessments
are often fragmented between research, academic
The WMO Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW) provides a and operational entities. Furthermore, various issues
focused approach to addressing the needs of Members related to sea-ice observations, data standardization
and their partners for observing the cryosphere as and use are not fully resolved. However, demand
a key component of the Earth system. Through the for near real-time and increased spatial resolution
GCW, cryospheric data can be accessed and used to information on sea-ice concentration, thickness,
meet information needs. Value-added analyses and pressure, stage of development, presence of
indicators can build on the in situ, space-based and icebergs and other parameters is increasing, driven
airborne observations and models of the cryosphere, by forecasting and decisions for navigation, search
available in the GCW, to develop products and services. and rescue, and climate and ecosystem services in
polar regions.
Sea ice is a high priority activity of GCW, with a
particular focus on fostering consistency of sea-ice GCW coordinates three priority activities related to
observations across polar regions and on sustaining sea ice:
access to well understood sea-ice data and satellite
products – critical inputs to numerical weather 1. the harmonization and standardization of sea-ice
predictions, climate monitoring and operational observations and reporting protocols
services. These GCW sea-ice activities are coordinated
with the other ocean relevant activities of the WMO 2. the consistent definition and dissemination of
Technical Commissions. In 2020, GCW became one observing requirements across operational and
of the joint stewards of the Ocean Observations Panel scientific applications

1 Research Scientist, Australian Antarctic Division and Uni-

3. facilitation of the characterization of satellite sea-
versity of Tasmania (Australia) ice derived products and how their use supports
2 Research Scientist, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, specific applications.
Norway
3 Head of Norwegian Ice Service, Norwegian Meteorological
6 The OOPC is co-sponsored by the WMO/IOC-UNESCO/
Institute, Norway
ISC/UNEP Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), the
4 Research Scientist, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, IOC-UNESCO Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS),
Norway and the WMO/IOC-UNESCO/ OSC World Climate Research
5 WMO Secretariat Programme (WCRP).
WMO BULLETIN 49

GCW facilitates. These include programmes under

the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), those
operated by Sea Ice Services, and long-standing
research programmes such as Antarctic Sea Ice
Processes & Climate (ASPeCt), IceWatch, Antarctic
Fast Ice Network (AFIN), the International Arctic Buoys
Programme (IABP) and International Programme for
Antarctic Buoys (IPAB). ASPeCt is the expert group
on multi-disciplinary Antarctic sea-ice zone research
within the Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research
(SCAR) Physical Sciences program, coordinating
ship-based data collection in the Southern Ocean,
In situ sea-ice and snow sampling – together with data calibration and building an observational
coordinated oceanographic, atmospheric and
record. Building on the research Data Network Arctic
biogeochemical observations – provide key information
and anchorage points for deriving products from Shipborne Sea Ice Standardization Tool (ASSIST)
remotely-sensed data and to calibrate and validate developed under the Climate and Cryosphere Project
numerical simulations. (Photo: P. Heil) (CliC) of the World Climate Research Programme
(WCRP), IceWatch has been adopted by the Norwegian
GCW works in close collaboration with the WMO Meteorological Institute, to collate and archive sea-ice
Polar Space Task Group on the third priority. All three observations from the Northern Hemisphere. Finally,

Monitoring
align with activities planned within the framework AFIN is the Antarctic Fast Ice Network concerned
of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable with the acquisition of near-coastal ocean-sea ice-
Development. atmosphere observations.

Expendable remotely-operating instrumentation on, in In situ instrumentation provides high-spatial and temporal
and below the sea ice, as pictured here, provide crucial resolution data on a range of sea-ice properties crucial to
information on the state of the sea ice and its snow cover understand the processes driving sea-ice evolution and
and how it evolves and moves in response to atmospheric linking changes in sea-ice properties to discrete forcing.
and oceanic forcing. (Photo: P. Heil) (Photo: R. Steele)

Standardized observing and reporting protocols are The consolidation of sea-ice observing requirements
necessary to overcome the scarcity and fragmentation is a GCW priority in the context of balancing the
of sea-ice data for both, the Arctic and the Antarctic, needs for weather and climate monitoring with
and to provide normed and well characterized input for the demand for near real-time (< 24 hours) higher
the development and validation of numerical models spatial resolution (hundreds of metres) data. The
and remote sensing data products. This is possible consolidated requirements would need to reflect
through collaboration with other programmes, which the needs of applications for sea-ice operational
50 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

The steady decline of the Arctic (a) and Antarctic (b) sea-ice extent in the 40+ years of satellite data records. Image
shows ranks (1: lowest, 43: highest) of monthly mean sea-ice extent for the Arctic and Antarctic, respectively. Rows/
columns represent years/months and colours go from blue (highest) to red (lowest). (Based on EUMETSAT OSI
SAF data with R&D input from ESA CCI (courtesy T Lavergne (Norway)).

monitoring activities, for search-and-rescue and for ice-sheet) thickness change at an extremely critical time
understanding and addressing the dramatic effects when the continuity of climate monitoring is essential
of climate change on polar ecosystems, which also for monitoring progress under the Paris Agreement
relates to food security, including for indigenous of the United Nations Framework Convention on
populations. Climate Change. This underlines the importance
of WMO’s role in supporting the identification of
In parallel, well-documented observing requirements user needs and critical gaps to inform decisions on
support the evolution of observing systems for polar satellite mission priorities, from forecasting weather
regions, where there is a significant reliance on and ocean conditions and monitoring ocean, ice and
satellite observations. Satellite mission objectives waves conditions for safety of navigation in the polar
and their implementation rely on input from user regions to the continuity of climate records.
communities to prioritize investments, for instance,
when satellites near their expected end-of-life and Consistency of observing products available from
must be replaced. One example is the Call for Support, diverse space missions, and their alignment with user
signed by over 600 scientists from more than 30 needs, are critical. In this regard and in consultation
countries, to fill the anticipated gap in the polar with the international community, GCW has initiated
radar-altimetry capabilities. This and other potential an intercomparison of satellite products on sea-ice
gaps, if materialized in practice, would introduce thickness and snow depth on sea ice. Ice thickness
decisive breaks in the long-term records of sea-ice (and provides an integrated measure of changes in the
WMO BULLETIN 51

energy budget, while snow on sea ice adds a key Elisabeth, Smith Inga J., Swart Sebastiaan, Wahlin
insulating layer.The latter, where sufficiently thick such Anna, Williams Guy, Williams Michael J. M., Herraiz-
as in the Antarctic, may contribute to sea-ice volume Borreguero Laura, Kern Stefan, Lieser Jan, Massom
through snow-ice formation.. These parameters are Robert A., Melbourne-Thomas Jessica, Miloslavich
critical for forecasting and navigation in polar waters Patricia, Spreen Gunnar (2019). Delivering Sustained,
as sea-ice thickness limits the use of vessels of certain Coordinated, and Integrated Observations of the
ice classes, and the gluing effect of snow cover reduces Southern Ocean for Global Impact. Frontiers in Marine
icebreaking effectiveness. While a wide array of Science. 6. 10.3389/fmars.2019.00433.
retrieval methods is available for estimating sea-ice
thickness from a range of satellite observations, AMAP, 2017. Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the
estimating the snow thickness on sea ice remains a Arctic (SWIPA) 2017. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment
challenge (IPCC, SROCC, 2019). The intercomparison Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway. xiv + 269 pp. ISBN
is expected to provide recommendations on future 978-82-7971-101-8
space missions for addressing acknowledged gaps.
GCW will provide the scientific steering of the project.

The 2019 IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and

Cryosphere in a Changing Climate documented the
need for a coordinated and holistic approach to
observing and investigating changes in sea ice. It

Monitoring
noted the remaining “critical gaps in knowledge
concerning interactions between the atmosphere and
specific elements of the polar ocean and cryosphere.”
Then went on to state that these gaps “… limit the
understanding of ongoing and future trajectories of the
polar regions and their climate systems”. GCW is well
positioned to encourage and effectively coordinate
projects to fill these gaps and to foster consequent
data analysis and publication of data and results.

References

IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC

Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a
Changing Climate [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V.
Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska,
K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J.
Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. In press.

Newman Louise, Heil Petra,Trebilco Rowan, Katsumata

Katsuro, Constable Andrew, van Wijk Esmee, Assmann
Karen, Beja Joana, Bricher Phillippa, Coleman
Richard, Costa Daniel, Diggs Steve, Farneti Riccardo,
Fawcett Sarah, Gille Sarah T., Hendry Katharine R.,
Henley Sian, Hofmann Eileen, Maksym Ted, Mazloff
Matthew, Meijers Andrew, Meredith Michael M.,
Moreau Sebastien, Ozsoy Burcu, Robertson Robin,
Schloss Irene, Schofield Oscar, Shi Jiuxin, Sikes
52 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

From JCOMMOPS to OceanOPS:

supporting oceanography and
marine meteorology in-situ
observations
By Mathieu Belbéoch and Emanuela Rusciano, WMO-IOC OceanOPS

Eighty-six countries are involved in ocean observations From 20 01 to 2015, JCOMMOPS Centre was
with about 10 000 in situ ocean observing platforms located in Toulouse (France), hosted by the CLS
and 170 satellites continuously monitoring the global company, to interact closely with users of the Argos
ocean and atmosphere. The analyses, forecasts telecommunication system. There, it benefitted both
and products based on ocean observations are the from an operational infrastructure and access to a
bedrock of decisions across a swath of socio-economic large raw data hub. The Centre operated initially with
sectors, especially in marine transportation, coastal two technical coordinators then it grew gradually to
communities, climate, agriculture and ocean health. support more sustained ocean observing systems,
Society's need for ocean information is increasing. including the OceanSITES, GO-SHIP, OceanGliders,
In response, the Global Ocean Observing System GLOSS and some emerging networks of the JCOMM/
(GOOS) is gaining in complexity, scope and coverage. GOOS Observations Coordination Group (OCG) such
Strong coordination is required within and amongst as the animal-based measurements (AniBOS).
communities of observers from around the world to
ensure delivery and cost efficiency from observations The Centre developed a number of innovative services
through to data management systems and information for real-time monitoring of the global networks’
services. performance and to assist implementers on a day-
to-day basis, including in their operations at sea.
In 1999, the World Meteorological Congress and the The small JCOMMOPS team pioneered the web and
IOC/UNESCO Assembly adopted identical resolutions Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies
to establish the Joint WMO-IOCTechnical Commission to track the ocean observing networks and offer a
for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM). useful toolbox to scientists, program managers and
In turn, the first JCOMM session in 2001 established to the GOOS/JCOMM governance.
the Observing Platform Support Centre, known as
JCOMMOPS. The team opportunistically chartered a 20-metre
sailing ship, Lady Amber, to assist Argo and Data Buoy
Initially, JCOMMOPS built on the coordination facilities Cooperation Panel (DBCP) implementers in filling
provided by the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel since gaps in the global arrays and demonstrate that low
the 1980s and the Ship Observations Team. It later cost and low footprint solutions could find their place
also encompassed the revolutionary Argo profiling amongst the fleet of merchant and research vessels.
float programme, a key outcome of the OceanObs’09 The vessel did an equivalent of two circumnavigations,
conference. Synergy was realized between these three in the South Atlantic and Indian Ocean, seeding
global marine observational programmes, which close to hundred instruments. This success story
assists those in charge of implementing National led to the establishment of a ship coordinator at
observing components, through an integrated and JCOMMOPS to support the Ship Observations Team
international approach. (SOT) and the Global Ocean Ship-based Hydrographic
WMO BULLETIN 53

One ocean observing system

Monitoring
Investigations Program (GO-SHIP) and to act on on the societal values of the observing system and
all cross networks ship issues, including with civil encourage international collaboration, new partners,
society, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), Members and Member States to join the challenge
sailing explorers and races. of building an integrated, sustained, innovative,
globally implemented observing system that meets
In 2015, the Centre and staff moved to Brest the growing demand for ocean services and science.
(France), within the Institut Français de Recherche It also helps the networks to raise their standards to
pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (Ifremer), to be closer meet integrated goals.
to implementers in a worldwide ocean pole and
with strong support from regional authorities. Its
information system remained in Toulouse in the OceanOPS
operational CLS cloud, with a 5-staff team in the
Brest office. After years of preparation, a full revamp In 2018, an external review of JCOMMOPS was
of the original information system and web-based conducted by the Observations Coordination Group to
applications was undertaken in 2015. It integrated help the Centre and its stakeholders to better capitalize
the monitoring dashboard for GOOS and provided on its uniqueness and strengths and to identify issues,
network specific tools and indicators, all fueled by a opportunities and challenges. The Review provided a
growing diversity of metadata and real-time pulses tabulation of both strategic and operational actions
from the platforms. for consideration and underlined the need for a
five-year strategic plan that responds to key drivers
and engages the JCOMMOPS stakeholder base.
Ocean Observing System Report Card Therefore, JCOMMOPS started gathering perspectives
and recommendations from stakeholders in 2019
The annual publication since 2017 of the Ocean in order to develop the strategic plan. The WMO
Observing System Report Card is a major achievement Governance Reform, which was ongoing at the time,
for the Observations Coordination Group and the raised the ocean agenda and injected momentum
Network experts. The publication communicates into the JCOMMOPS process. In 2020, the five-year
54 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

strategic plan was released. The WMO Governance Challenges ahead

Reform having disbanded JCOMM to create the Joint
WMO-IOC Collaborative Board, the opportunity was Over the past 20 years, OceanOPS has provided
taken to rebrand JCOMMOPS into OceanOPS. essential services, monitoring, coordinating and
integrating ocean data and metadata. Based on its
OceanOPS supports efficient observing system historical experience at the heart of the observing
operations to ensure the transmission and timely systems, OceanOPS has also identified a number of
exchange of high-quality metadata, and assists with challenges that GOOS will have to overcome to build a
the provision of free and unrestricted data delivery globally integrated, sustainable and fully implemented
to all users. The OceanOPS strategy is based on key observing system. Some are geographical: the
goals, including: monitoring for the improvement of opportunities to deploy autonomous instruments in
the global observing system performance, leading the southern ocean are rare and the large majority of
metadata standardization and integration, supporting funding countries are in the North. While others are
and enhancing its operations, enabling new data political: it is difficult to gain access to coastal states’
streams and networks, and shaping the OceanOPS waters to complete the implementation of the GOOS.
infrastructure for the future. GOOS needs to reduce its fragmentation through an
integrated and dimensioned design and an efficient
OceanOPS will develop tools and metrics to analyze governance. An unprecedented communication effort
the observing networks and system trends and report is needed to demonstrate its societal value to Member
back to stakeholders to encourage performance States to boost their support.
improvement and cost efficiency. A core activity will
be the harmonization of metadata for each observing OceanOPS represents a core element of GOOS,
network, individually and across the ocean observing essential to delivery, efficiency, insight and
system collectively. This will vastly increase data management of the observing system enterprise. It
usability and global monitoring capacity. OceanOPS will work to address these challenges with the larger
will maintain network specific services critical to ocean GOOS community.
observing systems implementation, such as the IOC-
UNESCO warning and notification system for floats
approaching Coastal States waters. OceanOPS also has
responsibility for allocating unique WMO identifiers to
all met-ocean platforms and for providing integrated
ocean metadata to the WMO OSCAR system. The
WMO Governance Reform placed OceanOPS within
the larger Earth System monitoring approach to
develop synergies with cryosphere and hydrology.

OceanOPS believes there is a great potential to

develop collaboration with third parties – civil society
and the private sector – to contribute to the GOOS.
The recent Vendée Globe Race offers a great example:
ten skippers deployed autonomous instruments and
carried out met-ocean observations during the race
(see page…). OceanOPS has proposed a project for UN
Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development
to frame these contributions and find solutions to
distribute these datasets. Pilot projects are underway
to develop an international data exchange service
for non-institutional data, including with the WIS 2.0.
WMO BULLETIN 55

Vendée Globe Race Skippers go

global with ocean observing!
By Emanuela Rusciano1, Mathieu Belbéoch1, Emma Heslop2 and Albert Fischer2

A new era of sailing for science is beginning with the support of International Monohull Open Class
Association (IMOCA) skippers during the Vendée Globe to the Global Ocean Observing System. Their
participation is taking place within the framework of the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for
Sustainable Development (2021-2030), and under the leadership of OceanOPS.

It was not enough to race to circumnavigate the navigated,” said Louis Burton, Bureau Vallée 2/IMOCA
world's ocean, braving equipment failure and stormy skipper. “The float weighed 20 kg and keeping extra
conditions, the fearless Vendée Globe skippers weight to a minimum is crucial for the race, but it
needed an extra challenge. So, they took on the was worthwhile. It was my choice. The future of the

Monitoring
task of making vital ocean observations, witnessing planet is in serious danger.
to their engagement for the ocean! 1 2
Thanks to OceanOPS – the joint IOC-UNESCO/WMO
“The Vendée Globe is a race that I would like to centre supporting GOOS, which coordinates and
win, but this additional challenge will allow us to monitors the sustained in situ components of the
find solutions to climate change,” explained Boris global ocean observing system – seven meteorological
Herrmann, Team Malizia/IMOCA skipper during the buoys and three profiling floats, operated respectively
race. “We cannot stress enough the importance of the by Météo-France and Argo France, were deployed
oceans, without them there would be no life on earth. by the IMOCA skippers at agreed positions in the
As major players in our climate system, they store Atlantic Ocean. Four skippers also carried onboard
over 90% of the excess heat from radiative forcing equipment to measure essential ocean variables – such
and absorb about a quarter of the human-produced as sea surface salinity, temperature, CO2, atmospheric
CO2 emitted annually. This is why we are continuing pressure – and measuring the microplastics pollution
our ocean research mission to protect this incredible at sea. The data collected during the Vendée Globe
wilderness.” were shared in real-time in an international open-
source database.
Despite the extra weight and responsibility for
observing equipment, this link-up between the Global “The Ocean is our playground and our working
Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and 10 of the IMOCA environment,” noted Kojiro Shiraish, DMG Mori/
skippers in the Vendée Globe race has been wildly IMOCA skipper. “Over the years, I have seen the
successful. These observations are from some of the ocean changing in various ways. As a child, in my
least visited regions of our global ocean, this is what home town of Kamakura the ocean was polluted with
makes the race so exciting and the data so valuable. heavy oil. We would go for a swim and sometimes
come back with lots of heavy oil all over our body.
“I deployed a profiler float when I was leaving the This was such a serious problem that the Japanese
Pot-au-Noir, a shipping route which is usually sparsely government had to work very hard to make the ocean
clean. Since then, the ocean in Japan has become very
1 WMO-IOC OceanOPS clean but there is now a bigger problem. A problem
2 IOC-UNESCO/GOOS that we cannot see directly because it is so small.
56 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Yachts participating in round-the-world races often traverse under sampled areas. During their journey, they can
gather high-value datasets, including meteorological (e.g. air pressure, wind) and oceanographic parameters
(e.g. salinity, pCO2 ), that add value to near real-time forecasting applications. After quality control, these datasets
flow into archives, like the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT), for climate applications. The yachts also deploy
autonomous instruments, like drifters and floats, in regions with very limited shipping. Here: Seaexplorer Yacht
Club de Monaco in the 2020 Vendée Globe Race.

This problem is called micro-plastic. Just looking at session on ocean observations. Students were
the water, we feel that the water is very clean but in familiarized with an Argo float and learned how it helps
fact it could be polluted. The problem is very serious scientists to study global warming and collect data
and we need to find better solutions to counter this. inaccessible to satellites, right down to the ocean’s
The ocean is the lungs of the planet earth. We need depths. After the instrument’s deployment, educators
to treat it better to be able to live a better life.” and students will follow the trajectory of the float,
which they signed, and access resources about the
Alexia Barrier, the 4myplanet/IMOCA skipper who data acquired from the Adopt-a-Float program portal.
deployed an Argo float near the Kerguelen Islands,
related, “We are several Vendée Globe sailors to have
boats equipped with sensors and to collect oceanic
data that transmit daily to scientists. Considering
the number of days we spend on the water and the
remote places we travel through on a round-the-world
trip, we provide a legitimate source of information.”

Alexia, Boris and Luis are also involved in educational

programs to make children concerned about the
oceans. Ahead the race, Emanuela Rusciano,
physical oceanographer and coordinator of science
and communication at OceanOPS, addressed three
classrooms in Brest and Plouzané, France, in special © Boris Herrmann / Seaexplorer – Yacht Club de Monaco
WMO BULLETIN 57

The Voluntary Observing Ships Scheme*

The Joint WMO-IOC Voluntary Observing Ships (VOS) scheme is an important component of the
global observing system, providing meteorological and oceanographic data essential to operational
meteorology, maritime safety services and a range of marine climatological applications. Ocean
observation data is also of critical importance to global climate studies. 1

The VOS scheme is regulated by the Joint WMO-IOC Ship Observation Team (SOT) and supported
by Port Meteorological Officers (PMO), which acquires data to support research, climate forecasting,
numerical weather prediction and maritime safety services amongst other applications.

Today the overall registered VOS fleet is over 4 000. In 2020 navigation was disrupted by COVID-19
restrictions, nonetheless about 2 800 identified stations submitted more than 2.5 million observations.
The OceanOPS platform reports that there are around 1 600 operational stations in a month.

* Zhichao Wang, Martin Kramp and Champika Gallage (WMO Secretariat)

Monitoring
The deployment of ocean observing instruments at for ocean study and preservation. The oceanographic
sea is fundamental for the continuous measurement data I have acquired during this Vendée Globe are
of oceanographic and atmospheric parameters of the very rare and precious for the scientists.”
ocean. Observations are crucial for delivering marine
weather and ocean services to support safety of life “The global ocean observing system is under growing
and property at sea, maritime commerce and the pressure to meet the demand for weather and ocean
well-being of coastal communities. Observations also services and forecast products, multi-hazard early
provides insights into the global weather and climate warning systems, and climate and ocean health
system and the impacts of long-term climate change, applications,” stated WMO Director of Infrastructure
as well as information on the increasing stress on the Anthony Rea. “In the current global COVID-19
ocean from human activities. pandemic, several ocean observing systems and ocean
monitoring operations have been impacted. WMO
“Observations from racing yachts, especially those therefore extends its appreciation and congratulations
acquired in remote areas of the ocean, are going to to the Vendée Globe skippers for their valuable
be vital for gaining a more complete knowledge of the contribution to weather and ocean observations.”
ocean and the atmosphere above it, and for a more
effective prediction of how the ocean may change Martin Kramp, the Ship Coordinator at OceanOPS,
in coming years”, said Albert Fischer Director, GOOS complemented the Vendée Globe skippers for their
Project Office at IOC-UNESCO. important contribution to weather forecasting and
understanding the health of the ocean. He explained,
“For 10 years now,” continued Alexia, “I have been “These instruments help us in areas where we have
pledging for ocean sustainability and protection, little means to gather met-ocean data. Observations,
and I have been trying to help scientists to better such as the atmospheric pressure data acquired by
understand the ocean. I have realized that, due to the drifting buoys and transmitted in real-time to
the long period I spent at sea in very remote oceanic the operational centres, help to improve weather
areas where only a few ships go, I can be really useful forecasting and protect safety of lives at sea, while
58 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

@IMOCA, modified by OceanOPS

the high-quality temperature data from profiling become a real ambassador of the program,” said
floats will enable scientists, throughout the world, Manu Cousin, Groupe SETIN/IMOCA skipper.
to significantly improve the estimates of ocean heat
storage.”

Long Jiang, the Technical Coordinator at OceanOps

for the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel added: “The
deployment of barometer-equipped surface drifters
are critical for numerical weather predictions as
atmospheric pressure can’t be measured directly
from satellites.”

In the future, “We would like the carrying of weather

and sea water instrumentation to be part of the IMOCA
class rules for ocean races, so that every skipper,
whether racing for the podium or not, takes part
to the observation and preservation of the ocean”, © Manuel Cousin / Groupe SETIN
added Mr Kramp.
The scientific initiative carried out during the Vendée
“As a skipper, I am very aware of the importance of Globe supports a GOOS made up of thousands of
protecting the environment, particularly the oceans. buoys, profiling floats, underwater robots, ship-
In my opinion, France has a particular responsibility based sensors and marine mammals equipped with
because it governs the second largest maritime space oceanographic sensors. All these instruments are
in the world, this includes the maritime areas of its already supplying scientists and marine and weather
overseas departments and territories. The sustainable forecasters with essential data about the conditions
development initiatives of the IMOCA Class made it at sea for climate studies, weather forecasts and early
possible to take ownership of targeted actions and warnings, and ocean health monitoring.
WMO BULLETIN 59

These new cooperation and collaboration with sailors activity on the oceans. The IMOCA Class is aware of
are key to help scientists filling in geographical gaps the urgent need to protect and preserve our seas,
in the GOOS and to support the safety of people and which makes the partnership with OceanOPS and
the future of our planet. UNESCO's IOC even more valuable. In the next IMOCA
cycle (2021-2024), we want to go further in involving
“About 2 000 autonomous instruments (such as more teams in the scientific contribution process”,
profiling floats and drifting buoys) must be deployed said Antoine Mermod IMOCA Director.
every year to sustain the GOOS. We are calling today,
through a specific UN Ocean Decade project, on civil “On behalf of the ocean observing community, I
society to support the GOOS implementation. We want wish to congratulate and thank all IMOCA skippers
to unlock the potential of citizens, non-governmental for their commitment to the ocean protection and
organizations, the private sector and world class sailors their invaluable contribution to weather and ocean
and mariners, some of our best ocean ambassadors,” observations”, said Mr Belbéoch.
said Mathieu Belbéoch, OceanOPS Lead.
For further information on how to participate in the
The UN Ocean Decade offers a unique opportunity UN Ocean Decade observation project, please contact
to change the way we care about the ocean and Emanuela Rusciano, erusciano@ocean-ops.org
effectively support ocean science and oceanography
for its protection and sustainable development. The
Decade is a chance for all of us to contribute actively

Monitoring
towards putting in place a more sustainable and
complete ocean observing system that delivers timely
data and information accessible to all users on the
state of the ocean across all basins.

The involvement of the IMOCA skippers in this

scientific project is part of a partnership that was
signed in January 2020 between UNESCO and IMOCA
to support ocean science and protect the ocean. For
two years, the two organizations will carry out various
joint projects including met-ocean observations.

The Vendée Globe/IMOCA scientific project contributes

to growing global awareness in the racing community
of the necessity to act to preserve the ocean. It results
from the work that has been carried out over several
years by the OceanOPS to team with “sailing ships
of opportunity” to gather meteorological data and
deploy oceanographic instruments at sea.This project
follows similar initiatives by sailors coordinated by
OceanOPS in the Volvo Ocean Race (and this will still be
the case on The Ocean Race 2022-2023), the Barcelona
World Race, the Clipper Race, the Rallies organized
by Jimmy Cornell and the recent IMOCA-organized
Arctique-Les Sables D’Olonne Race.

“Our skippers benefit from a unique experience. They

navigate in the most isolated places on the globe
and are the first to witnesses the impact of human
60 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Protecting Buoys for our Safety

By Champika Gallage and Sarah Grimes, WMO Secretariat

Ocean data buoys (moored and drifting) collect in Data Buoy Cooperation Panel (DBCP), which operates
situ oceanographic and meteorological data that are under the WMO-IOC Governance. DBCP has taken the
critical to a wide user community of government, lead in reducing and mitigating buoy vandalism. A
academic, military, public health, emergency response 3-pronged approach has been used to address data
stakeholders, marine transportation, tourism and buoy vandalism:
fisheries industries. These observations are used in
multiple applications, including to strengthen the • regulatory policy and enforcement
quality and accuracy of severe and routine weather
forecasting, improved coastal ocean circulation • engineering and technical modifications to buoy
models, environmental and ecosystem monitoring and systems to enhance situational awareness and
research, and tsunami warning capability. Monitoring impede third party interference
ocean health can only be done through long-term
multi-disciplinary observations, many of which are • the development and distribution of outreach and
sourced from data buoys that are uniquely suited for education materials on the value of ocean data
this task. Failure to maintain a sustainable network of buoys and the impacts of vandalism.
data buoys puts the health of our ocean and estuaries
at risk. For a detailed overview of data buoy vandalism
impacts and responses, see Ocean Data Buoy
Vandalism- Incidence, Impact and Responses (DBCP
Technical Document No. 41).

DBCP has published the “Outreach Strategy to Reduce

Damage to Ocean Data Buoys from Vandalism” to
guide development of outreach and educational
resources to raise public awareness of the critical
value of the services provided by ocean observation
networks and warning systems, and of the related
disaster risk-reduction benefits. It will help promote
Damaged TAO buoy, with the superstructure tilting at an education and outreach, especially to recreational,
angle. Source: B. Burnett, NDBC, 2009 (DBCP-25) artisanal and commercial fishers. It will also broaden
support of community stakeholders and enable
Data buoy vandalism refers to the intentional proactive engagement at regional and local scales
interference with, damage to, or theft of observing through the development of new partnerships to
platforms attributable to human action. Data buoy share lessons learned and generate new ideas for
vandalism has been a troublesome problem for many addressing vandalism issues.
buoy operators around the world. In addition to the
significant financial impact on buoy programs and Many years of buoy vandalism information tracking
operations, vandalism disrupts vital data collection has identified fishing activities as the primary cause
and reporting by moored and drifting buoys, placing of damage to data buoys (moored). Buoys act as fish
lives, property and economies in peril. aggregating devices (FADs), which fishing vessels
exploit in pursuit of fish. This increases the incidence
Data buoys are deployed in every ocean, and of direct contact between the buoys and fishing
international cooperation is implemented via the vessels.There are also rare incidences of damage from
WMO BULLETIN 61

Ocean Buoy awareness video released

for World Ocean Day 2020 – public
outreach to encourage people not to
touch buoys.

unintentional impacts such as inadvertent collision about the value of buoys for understanding weather
with a buoy. Drifting buoys are vandalized by picking and climate and even for tsunami warning and has
them up from the ocean and, in some cases, when a straightforward message not to touch buoys. The
these are beached. cartoon is pitched to a broad audience and can be
rolled out across social media for the public, schools

Monitoring
Buoy vandalism has been a problem since the and other community settings. Currently available
establishment of ocean observing networks in the in English, Fijian, French and Hindi to reach Pacific
late 1980s. Incidences of data buoy vandalism are Island communities, the WMO intends to translate
apparent in both ocean and coastal networks.The issue it into other languages for other regions around
has garnered international attention because many the world. The Fiji Meteorological Service has also
moored buoy platforms – in the tropical Pacific, eastern provided print and DVD to remote islands where
tropical Indian Ocean and equatorial Atlantic Ocean – Internet connection is unreliable or unavailable.
are internationally supported and provide data to the
international community. Further, these networks are
located outside Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) on
the high seas. This means the response to vandalism
events requires both national and international efforts.

Numerous local, national and international efforts

have been made to educate and inform people, in
particular the fishing community, about the negative
consequences of data buoy losses for research;
weather, climate and ocean forecasting; and tsunami
warnings. These observing losses have direct impact
on loss of human life and property. So far, the efforts
have had limited success – they have drawn awareness
to the impacts of data buoy vandalism but have not
stemmed the continued loss of buoys. This global
issue needs assistance and engagement at all levels
– regional, national and local.

WMO released a public awareness cartoon on buoy

vandalism for World Ocean Day in 2020. The video
informs the public, especially in coastal small islands,
62 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Ocean Prediction - modelling

for the future
By Fraser Davidson1, Andrew Robertson2, Frédéric Vitart2, Anthony Rea3, Michel Jean4, Andreas
Schiller5, Thomas J. Cuff6, Sarah Grimes3, Eunha Lim3, Estelle de Coning3, Peiliang Shi3

The ocean is the Earth’s largest ecosystem. It plays a ports, harbors, desalination plants, power plants,
major role in regulating the weather and climate of aquaculture pens, etc. The ocean provides food, ena-
the planet. In addition, the ocean moderates global bles trade and has a strong role in many indigenous
warming through CO2 absorption and its massive cultures. Knowledge of its physical characteristics
heat capacity. 1 2 3 4 5 6 and of the biological life it contains contributes to
tourism, fisheries, maritime transportation, renewable
and non-renewable energy extraction, and much
more. The ocean itself can be a source of minerals
and medical ingredients.

Thus, the importance of marine and coastal safety

and ocean resilience cannot be underestimated.
Climate information is essential to guide future coastal
development and to adapt existing infrastructure to
mitigate the impacts of hazardous marine and ocean
weather. Impact-based early warnings for natural
hazards and climate prediction and projections help
Figure 1: The ocean’s surface layer (0-40 metres) absorbs coastal communities and businesses to avoid risks
atmospheric carbon that gets transported to the deep
and increase resilience.
ocean in specific areas near the poles (noted by Carbon
sink) where the mixed layer and deep ocean interface.
(Map by Robert Simmon, NASA adapted from the IPCC The ocean itself is an essential Earth System compo-
2001 and Rahmstorf 2002). nent in climate change projections. Understanding the
ocean is fundamental to understanding the planet and
The United Nations indicates that 40% of the world’s the changes that are being wrought upon it by human
population – nearly 2.4 billion people – live within activity. Today the ocean ecosystem and physical
100 km of coasts and estimates the size of coastal characteristics are being impacted by human actions,
economies to be between US$ 3–6 trillion a year7. and the repercussions will be felt by all. There can be
Coastal areas host essential infrastructure such as no delay in furthering knowledge and comprehension
of the ocean, its interaction with the atmosphere and
the impact of humanity on the ocean.
1 Co-Chair, OceanPredict Science Team
2 Co-chairs of the WWRP/WCRP S2S project
3 WMO Secretariat
4 President, Commission for Observation, Infrastructure and History
Information Systems (INFCOM)
5 CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Historically, the exploration and exploitation of the
6 Director, Office of Observations, National Weather Service, ocean has gone hand in hand with the growth in
NOAA; Chair, WMO Standing Committee on Marine Mete-
knowledge about it, and the atmosphere above
orology and Oceanographic Services
7 https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/wp-content/
it. It was at the initiative of the oceanographer,
uploads/2017/05/Ocean-fact-sheet-package.pdf meteorologist and astronomer Matthew Maury,
WMO BULLETIN 63

Surface drifts and currents of the

oceans (Source: NOAA)

then a lieutenant in the U.S. Navy, that the First As is the case with the atmosphere, ocean prediction
International Meteorological Conference was held spans multiple time scales, from hours to days up to
in Brussels in 1853 to achieve a uniform system of monthly and seasonal predictions.
meteorological observations at sea. The Conference
paved the way for the creation some 20 years later The advances in ocean observations and prediction
of the International Meteorological Organization, the systems over the last 20 years have made operational
predecessor of WMO. oceanography infrastructure critical to a wide range of
marine activities. Predictions –ranging in timescales
The same Matthew Maury was one of the first to from the immediate, to support safety and for tactical
publish met-ocean contributions in a book entitled “The decisions, through to seasonal and longer timeframes,
Physical Geography of the Sea and its Meteorology” to inform planning and resilience activities – all require
(Maury 1864). His marine environmental perspectives operational oceanography.
on winds and currents led, amongst others, to a
decrease in transit times across the world’s ocean,
resulting in economic and safety benefits. Indeed, his Differences in ocean and atmosphere
pioneering work laid the foundation for modern marine
meteorology. Today, there is still an urgent need for Air and water have extremely different properties that
oceanographers to continue Maury’s quest and to are exemplified by comparing the atmosphere and
share their knowledge with those far and near with the ocean. The weight of the top 10 m of the ocean
all who benefit from or are impacted by the ocean. is equivalent to the weight of the entire atmosphere
above it.The heat capacity of the top 2.5 m of the ocean
Prediction
is equivalent to that of the entire atmosphere above it.
Operational oceanography Additionally, the top 2.5 cm of the ocean contains the
same amount of water as the entire atmosphere above
Operational oceanography can be described as the it. While both atmosphere and ocean are governed
provision of routine oceanographic information needed by the same equations of motion, their circulation
for decision-making purposes. The core components characteristics, scales of motion and properties are
of operational oceanographic systems are a multi- markedly different. The interaction between these two
platform observation network, a data management domains is also one of the fundamental processes
system, a data assimilative prediction system and driving weather and climate on Earth.
a dissemination/accessibility system. These are
interdependent, necessitating communication and From a WMO perspective, ocean and atmospheric
exchange between them, and together provide the prediction are intrinsically linked through physical
mechanism through which a clear picture of ocean processes that are increasingly taken into consideration
conditions, in the past, present and future, can be seen. by modellers in both domains. At time scales of less
64 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

than a few days, the interaction between the ocean definition of large-scale ocean eddies in real time in
and atmosphere has a big influence on weather in the prediction systems. Additionally, altimetry enables
certain locations, such as near coasts that experience tracking of long-term changes in ocean depth, such
ocean upwelling, particularly when upwelling is as sea level rise.
linked to sudden changes in ice cover. At time scales
beyond a few days, the ocean-atmosphere interaction The Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS), which
contributes to weather forecasts over all locations and measures long-term changes in ocean-atmosphere
its importance increases with greater lead times. At heat exchange, was designed in the 1980s to improve
seasonal and climate prediction scales, the coupling the scientific understanding of the El Niño–Southern
of ocean and atmosphere in the prediction systems Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in order to better
is crucial. predict ENSO events. It has since provided vital data
contributing to improved ENSO forecasts for decisions
Weather forecasting, such as for tropical cyclone about agriculture, for example (Hansen et al., 1998;
formation and intensity, and longer-term predictions, Chiodi and Harrison, 2017). Ocean observing systems
such as for seasonal precipitation, are reliant on have been developed for the Atlantic (PIRATA) and
temperature and current observations in the ocean Indian Ocean (RAMA) following the TPOS model.
(Weller et al 2019). TPOS is also adapting to meet the observational,
experimental and operational needs of today and
the future.
Status of Ocean Prediction
Data Assimilation – Data assimilation schemes
To understand the status of ocean prediction, one vary among ocean forecasting groups. The primary
must first get an overview of the current state of objective is to minimize the misfit of model results with
ocean prediction systems and the international the observations while respecting the rules of physics.
network that unites them to get an outlook on future Observations assimilated in ocean forecast systems
improvement of the science behind ocean prediction, now include altimetry, ocean colour, surface velocities,
the prediction system capacity and the potential for sea ice and data from emerging platforms such as
further integration of ocean systems into seamless ocean gliders. Many systems now employ multi-model
Earth System models. The maturing of oceanographic approaches or ensemble modelling techniques. A
observations, forecast systems and research, the core key upcoming change in data assimilation will be the
ocean forecasting disciplines of data assimilation, arrival of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography
ocean modelling, forecast verification and observing (SWOT) altimeter, which will provide a true two-
system evaluation is now enabling new research and dimensional picture of the ocean surface topography
operational areas to flourish. with roughly 2 km resolution, rather than along
satellite track measurements, where the tracks are
A key to any prediction system is the real-time interspaced by 200 km and separated over time.
availability of observations from surface and from
space-based platforms. The important differences Short term prediction – Short term ocean predictions
between the atmosphere and the ocean become encompass timescales from the next few hours
very apparent here. From a remote sensing satellite to ten days or more and are often referred to as
perspective, the ocean is less transparent and therefore forecasts.There has been significant progress in ocean
less measurable at depth than the atmosphere. forecasting in recent years (Bell et al. 2015, Davidson
Satellite-based information, therefore, is in large et al 2019). Improvements of forecasting systems
part only available for the very surface of the ocean. have included increased resolution (horizontal and
However, satellite-based altimeters that measure vertical), inclusion of tides, sea ice drift and thickness,
sea surface height are an oceanographic remote ecosystem approaches, improvement to mixing biases
sensing strength. Ocean height is representative and extending regional mode areas [e.g., polar regions
of the depth integrated processes between ocean and progress of coupled modeling (wave coupling,
surface and bottom, and satellite altimetry enables the sea ice, hurricane models, etc.)].
WMO BULLETIN 65

Short-to-medium-term coupled ice–ocean–wave– Sea ice – Sea ice is also considered to be part of
atmosphere prediction is being used to improve the coupled ocean system. Due to its insulating and
weather forecasts on the timescale of three days to reflective properties, sea ice regulates exchanges
two weeks. This will enable safer at-sea and coastal between the atmosphere and ocean. At the sub-
operations through improved prediction of extreme seasonal to seasonal timescale, prediction systems
weather and climate events such as tropical cyclones. increasingly account for sea ice, either to improve the
Increased activities in the high latitudes are also forecasts themselves, or to provide dedicated sea-ice
driving the further development of operational ice forecasts. Sub-seasonal prediction of sea ice has
and ocean prediction. wide potential applications as well (for example ship
routing) but these have not yet been fully harnessed
Sub-seasonal to Seasonal prediction – Unlike large- (Chevallier et al. 2019).
scale atmospheric events which evolve on daily time
scales, large scale ocean events typically evolve on
weekly to monthly time scales and include marine
heat waves and variations in sea level that can cause
fair-weather flooding and exacerbate the flood risks
of tropical and extratropical storms.

Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction, with a forecast

range longer than two weeks but less than a
season, is now routinely performed using coupled
ocean-atmosphere models. At lead times longer
than two weeks, coupling of the atmosphere to the
ocean contributes, for example, to predictability
of monsoon variations and the Madden Julian
Oscillation (e.g., Woolnough et al., 2007). In addition,
satellite observations suggest that midlatitude ocean
mesoscale eddy–induced sea surface temperatures can
influence the atmospheric planetary boundary layer,
which may drive predictability of winter storm-tracks
on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales (Saravanan
and Chang, 2019).

Sub-seasonal prediction of regional variations in

sea surface temperature and near-surface currents
Prediction
is also of direct interest for a wide range of activities
and enterprises including management of fisheries, An example of a one-page state of the ocean summary
offshore mining activities and ocean transportation. from ocean reanalysis systems of the European Union’s
Copernicus Marine Service (source: Annual Ocean State
Report (von Schuckmann et al 2019)
Coastal Prediction – Along coasts, decision-
makers looking after increasingly populated and
urbanized coastal areas are benefiting from coastal Climate reanalyses and ocean reporting – In parallel
operational oceanography.This is because operational with efforts by the climate community to generate
oceanography is increasingly able to provide accurate “reanalyses” of past conditions, the state of the
information on phenomena such as coastal river ocean analysis aims to recreate ocean conditions
plumes from sediments and nutrients, predicting the over the last 30 years at global and regional scales.
occurrence and evolution of harmful algae blooms, Three-dimensional analyses of the past and present
and coastal erosion. ocean state at global-to-coastal scales are being
developed based on the same modelling and
66 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

assimilation infrastructure used for ocean forecasting. GOOS, WMO, IOC, the Committee on Earth Observation
This follows the approach of atmospheric reanalyses Satellites (CEOS), and the Blue Planet initiative of the
using available historical observations to generate intergovernmental Group on Earth Observations (GEO).
physically-consistent data cubes. The annual Ocean These partnerships reinforce the sharing of ideas and
State Report (von Schuckmann et al 2019) of the bring together the oceanographic and atmospheric
European Union’s Copernicus Marine Service is a science and modelling communities. Partnerships
premier example of careful analysis of a year’s worth of within national settings are also advancing ocean
analysis data against a historical context. A summary predictions for societal benefit. Examples from the
graph provides large scale trends of the main ocean Australian, Canadian and U.S. governments show
variables in various regions of the globe. the success of collaboration between meteorological
and oceanographic institutions.
Communication and verification –The communication
and dissemination of information to downstream users
has improved. Nowadays, the dissemination of outputs Bluelink Ocean Forecasting Australia
from forecasting systems is akin to the approaches
taken by WMO in the distribution of numerical weather Bluelink is a partnership between the Australian Bureau
prediction products. Most ocean forecasting systems of Meteorology (BOM), the Commonwealth Scientific
are also now investing in verification, monitoring and and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and the
validation efforts to be able to show the value of their Australian Department of Defence with collaborating
products to their users. partners that include the Integrated Marine Observing
System, the Defence Science and Technology Group,
National Computational Infrastructure, and the
Strengthening ocean predictions through university sector.
partnerships
The operational Bluelink ocean forecast system is used
The United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for to transform physical oceanographic observations into
Sustainable Development provides an opportunity coherent analyses and predictions.These analyses and
to further galvanize operational oceanography. The predictions form the basis for information services
Decade brings momentum for international and about the marine environment and its ecosystem and
national ocean communities to come together to can provide boundary data for weather predictions.
extend the network and science essential for the Bluelink information services are available to marine
generation of comprehensive ocean information. A industries – commercial fishing, aquaculture, shipping,
key goal of the Decade is a predicted ocean where oil and gas, renewable energy – government agencies
society has the capacity to understand current and – search and rescue, defence, coastal management,
future ocean conditions. environmental protection – and other stakeholders
– recreation, water sports, artisanal and sport fishing
WMO and Intergovernmental Oceanographic – who depend on timely and accurate information
Commission (IOC) of UNESCO have long recognized about the marine environment.
the value and need for ocean forecasting services
and have worked together towards enablement At its core, Bluelink consists of three inter-connected
and understanding of the full value chain on ocean component systems at global, regional and near-
prediction. In recent years, the Global Ocean Observing shore (littoral zone) scales. The key scientific
System (GOOS) 8 has emphasized this focus on objective is to deliver reliable, operational ocean
ocean prediction to deliver relevant services for forecasts and reanalyses of the ocean mesoscale
societal benefit. The international ocean forecasting (global system), sub-mesoscale (regional system)
community is collaborating across OceanPredict, and nearshore circulation (littoral zone system) at
timescales from days to weeks. Beyond the traditional
8 Co-sponsored by IOC, WMO, United Nations Environment
short-term forecasting of physical ocean properties
Programme (UNEP) and International Science Council (ISC) (temperature, salinity, surface height, currents,
WMO BULLETIN 67

Typical example of (a) Bluelink

reanalysis fields and (b)
observed fields for the Tasman
Sea. Colour shows SST, arrows
show surface velocity. (This
comparison is adapted from:
www.marine.csiro.au/ofam1/
bran1/br3p5_EAC_tv12/20120111.
html.)

waves), marine activities such as water quality and System (NCODA) into RTOFS. RTOFS Version 2.0,
habitat management as well as climate monitoring implemented in December 2020, incorporated an
increasingly rely on operational oceanographic data upgraded NOAA Ocean Data Assimilation (DA) system,
and products. RTOFS-DA.

US Partnership in Ocean Modelling for an

Earth System

Within the U.S., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration (NOAA) and the Department of the
Navy have partnered for well over a decade to develop
and implement operational ocean predictions. The
output of these models provides the basis for a
variety of met-ocean forecasting services to support
safe maritime operations, including tropical cyclone
predictions, search and rescue, response to marine
environmental emergencies, such as oil spills, and
Prediction
operations near the marginal sea-ice zone.
GOFS forecast sea surface temperature, Day 7-1/2 (Source:
The U.S. Navy began running global ocean circulation U.S. Naval Research Laboratory)
models in 1999 (Rhodes et al. 2002). The present
version of the Navy Global Ocean Forecast System
(GOFS), operational in 2020, couples the Hybrid
Coordinate Ocean Model with the Community Ice
Code Sea Ice (CICE) model. In 2021, the Navy will
operate a 1/25 degree GOFS with CICE and tides.

NOAA implemented its global Real-Time Ocean

Forecasting System (RTOFS) in 2011. Initially based
on the U.S. Navy’s development of GOFS, NOAA also Global RTOFS forecast sea surface temperature anomaly,
incorporated the Navy Coastal Ocean Data Assimilation Day 8 (Source: NOAA)
68 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

In 2017, as part of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement modeling and new real-time global oceanographic
Project, NOAA implemented a new regional scale observation systems to produce oceanographic
coupled ocean-weather model. The Hurricanes in a forecast products and improve seasonal to inter-annual
Multi-scale Ocean coupled Non-hydrostatic (HMON) climate forecasts. This core network is leveraging
model provides forecasters with intensity and track multiple collaborations with academic institutions,
guidance from 0 to 5 days to support the official the private sector and institutions abroad such as
warning and forecast products from the National Mercator Ocean International.
Hurricane Center/ Regional Specialized Meteorological
Centre (RSMC) Miami. Like HMON, the operational
Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model also
uses coupled ocean states prescribed using initial
and boundary conditions from RTOFS.

Efforts such as these, representing just a subset of

the U.S. operational ocean modelling efforts, are
shaping the development of fully-coupled Earth
system prediction capability. As part of a national
effort codified in legislation as the Weather Research
and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, NOAA is
collaborating across the nation’s weather enterprise
– government agencies, academia and the private
sector – to improve its numerical weather prediction. An example of the prediction systems cascading approach
NOAA will accomplish this through an Earth Prediction used to generate products and services at high spatial
and temporal resolution, for the Bay of Fundy, Canada.
Innovation Center (EPIC), engaging the enterprise
(Paquin et al 2019)
to accelerate scientific research and modelling
contributions into the Unified Forecast System (UFS).
As a community-based Earth system data assimilation In order to facilitate collaboration across government
and prediction system, the UFS will, over the next five departments and with external CONCEPTS partners,
years, lead to full Earth systems coupling – ocean, a three thrust strategy was implemented in 2009:
atmosphere, land, sea ice and the biosphere – for
weather and climate applications. EPIC will facilitate 1. the collection and dissemination of measurements
this broad collaboration with a cloud development of physical properties of marine environments for
environment, code repository, observations and tools, assimilation in models to improve forecasts from
and community support and engagement. environmental (weather, ice, wave and ocean)
prediction systems in Canada

Canadian Partnership in Atmosphere- 2. the development of coupled environmental

Ocean-Ice Monitoring, Coupled Prediction prediction systems to improve analyses and
and Ocean Services forecasts from environmental (weather, ice, wave
and ocean) prediction systems in Canada
The Canadian Operational Network of Coupled
Environmental PredicTion Systems (CONCEPTS) is 3. the availability of CONCEPTS products and
a collaboration between three Federal Departments: services for end users including:
Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO), Environment and
Climate Change Canada (E3C) and the Department (a) providing feedback to monitoring and
of National Defence (DND). The network works to prediction systems for continuous improvements
develop and implement computer models that
support ocean-ice forecasting advancements. The (b) enabling collaboration within and outside
aim is to take advantage of breakthroughs in ocean of CONCEPTS through the development and
WMO BULLETIN 69

An example of product for

E-Navigation application
generated by a high
resolution estuarian river
2D prediction system
run by the Canadian
Meteorology and
Environmental Prediction
Center H2D2 (Matte et
al 2017)

provision of discovery, visualization and 5. Hydrodynamic modelling over the St. Lawrence
accessibility systems of observation and model River from Montréal to Québec city
output.
The cascading approach being used opens the door to
The current suite of coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice products and services at multiple spatial and temporal
prediction systems comprise: scales. Planning work is currently underway to couple
those with biogeochemical modeling systems. The
1. Global Ice Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS) overarching System of Systems feeds the information
running at ¼ degree resolution9 required to enable electronic navigation approaches.

2. Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS)

running at 1/12 degree resolution over the North S2S Project
Pacific, the Arctic and the North Atlantic10 11
To bridge the gap between medium-range weather
3. Coastal Ice Ocean Prediction System (CIOPS)
running at 1/36 degree over the Northwest Atlantic
forecasts and seasonal forecasts, the WMO World
Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World
Prediction
and the Northeast Pacific12 Climate Research Programme (WCRP)13 launched
the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal prediction project
4. Great Lakes Water Cycle Prediction System (S2S). The main goal of the project is to improve
(atmosphere, ocean, ice, hydrology) running at forecast skill and understanding of the sub-seasonal to
2 km horizontal resolution seasonal timescale, and to promote the uptake of S2S
predictions by operational centres and exploitation
9 G. Smith et al., QJRMS, Volume142, Issue695, January 2016 by the applications communities (www.s2sprediction.
Part B, Pages 659-671
net). The first phase of the S2S ran from 2013 to 2017
10 JF Lemieux et al., 2016, QJRMS, Volume142, Issue695,
January 2016 Part B, Pages 632-643 and the second phase started in 2018 and will end in
11 Smith, G.C., Liu, Y., Benkiram, M., Chikhar, K., Surcel Colan, 2023. One research focus of Phase 2 is the sub-seasonal
D., Testut, C.E., Dupont, F., Lei, J., Roy, F., Lemieux, J.F., and to seasonal predictability and prediction of ocean and
Davidson, F., 2020.The Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System
v2: a pan Canadian ocean analysis system. Geoscientific
sea-ice. S2S works in coordination with the Working
Model development Discussions, pp1-49.
12 Paper in preparation 13 Co-sponsored by WMO, IOC and ISC
70 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Groups on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction which will provide insights on the possible use of
(WGSIP), on Data Assimilation and Observation these sub-seasonal forecasts for applications such
Systems (DAOS), and on Predictability, Dynamics, as fishery. The image below provides an example of
Ensemble Forecasting (PDEF) to promote improved a possible use for this ocean data in ocean weather
sub-seasonal predictions though better initialization maps. In this example, sea-level anomalies relative
of the ocean/sea-ice state and depiction of key ocean to the climate are issued for a forecast lead time of
and sea-ice processes that provide predictability at 3 to 4 weeks.
sub-seasonal timescales.
The addition of the new parameters will also make
A major achievement of the first phase of S2S was the the S2S database more apt to lead to a better
establishment in 2015 of the S2S database containing understanding of air-ice-ocean interactions at the
near real-time sub-seasonal forecasts (up to 60 days) sea-ice margin, as illustrated in below. It will also
and re-forecasts (sometimes known as hindcasts) from help diagnose the evolution of ocean drift with
11 operational centres. Most of the S2S models are forecast lead time in the S2S forecasts.
coupled ocean/sea-ice/atmosphere models, and the
list of parameters available from the S2S database
has always included sea-surface temperature and
sea-ice cover.

Since January 2020, nine new ocean and sea-ice

parameters have been added to the S2S database,
consisting of 20° C isotherm depth, mixed-layer
thickness, salinity and potential temperature in the
top 300 m, surface currents, salinity, sea-surface
height and sea-ice thickness. The availability of
this extensive set of ocean and sea-ice variables
substantially increases the power of the database
for S2S coupled system research and to address
key science questions. Currently, the new variables
are available from four models – European Centre
for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF),
E3C, Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA)
and Météo-France – three weeks behind real-time
forecasts (from January 2020) and the corresponding
re-forecasts, which are produced in near real-time.
In the coming year, the new variables will become
available from an expanded set of S2S models.

Sea-ice thickness, mixed layer depth, and sensible heat

As an example of what is already being done, Zampieri fluxes over the ocean from the ECMWF extended-range
et al. (2018) evaluated the forecast skill of several control forecast starting on 2 December 2019 and verified
models from the S2S database and found that some on 16 January 2020 (45-day lead time).
of them displayed significant skill in predicting sea-
ice cover up to a month in advance. This important In order to coordinate these activities, S2S Phase
result suggests that state-of-the-art sub-seasonal to 2 includes an ocean subproject, which will develop
seasonal forecasts could be potentially useful for a protocol for coordinated case studies that can be
applications such as ship routing in Arctic regions. conducted by centres doing S2S prediction of specific
The availability of the new ocean variables should ocean extreme events and air-sea interactions,
trigger new research studies on the predictability for example the onset of ENSO. Examples could
of high-impact ocean weather, such as heatwaves, include a predictability study of a prominent coral
WMO BULLETIN 71

bleaching event in 2017, and the intra-seasonal OceanPredict

air-sea interaction at the onset of the 2015/2016 El
Niño event. In the late 1990s, the international Global Ocean Data
Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) was launched to
(i) demonstrate the feasibility and utility of ocean
Organization of international ocean monitoring and forecasting on the daily-to-weekly
prediction timescale and (ii) contribute to building a global
operational oceanography infrastructure (Smith and
Recent literature14,15 has documented the strength of Lefebvre, 1997; Schiller et al., 2018). Building on its
the value cycle approach (Day, 1999) in the research success, GODAE OceanView was established in 2009
to operations to services technology transfer. In (Bell et al., 2009) to define, monitor and promote
particular, Ruti et al. (2020) provide a description of actions aimed at coordinating and integrating research
this cycle in the current meteorological context and associated with multi-scale and multi-disciplinary
as a key component to enable the Earth Systems ocean analysis and forecasting systems.
approach. This value chain links the production and
delivery of these services to user decisions and In 2019, GODAE OceanView became OceanPredict
to the outcomes and values resulting from those which continues to expand its activities with an
decisions. User feedback is then fed back to Research added emphasis on ocean prediction as part of the
and Operations in order to further improve services. broader network of international initiatives linked
Similar thinking is taking place in other disciplines. to operational oceanography. OceanPredict is thus
developing close partnerships with international
The image below (adapted from Schiller et al 2019) entities including the WMO, the IOC, GOOS and
depicts the marine value chain. There are two GEO Blue Planet.
key international initiatives which support ocean
predictions: OceanPredict and GOOS. For over two OceanPredict is supported by 14 countries. However
decades, OceanPredict and its predecessors have been scientific and technical participants from any
focused on research and operational implementation country are welcome in OceanPredict and its task
of ocean forecasting systems. GOOS has provided teams. Participants from 41 countries attended the
ocean observations for initializing and validating OceanPredict19 symposium (Vinaychandran et al
ocean predictions, driven by the collaboration between 2020), including scientists from operational prediction
the WMO and IOC. centres, government agencies, academia and private
consortiums/companies.

Most OceanPredict groups are integrally linked to or

are a part of numerical weather and environmental
Prediction
prediction centres such as NOAA, E3C, MétéoFrance
and the Japan Meteorological Agency to name
a few. In fact, seven of the nine WMO World
Meteorological Centres (WMC’s) are members of
OceanPredict. Additionally, all of the prediction
centres have academic collaborators that support
some of their research. OceanPredict coordinates
research and development activities in ocean data
assimilation, ocean system evaluation, marine
14 WMO, 2015: Valuing weather and climate: Economic ecosystem prediction, coastal ocean prediction,
assessment of meteorological and hydrological services. atmosphere ocean coupled prediction systems,
WMO-1153, 308 pp.
and intercomparisons and validations of ocean
15 Ruti et al., Advancing Research for Seamless Earth System
Prediction, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. 2020, DOI: https://doi.
prediction systems.
org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0302.1
72 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Collaboration on these themes includes academic waves, ice conditions, atmospheric temperature,
researchers, researchers from operational prediction atmospheric pressure, water level, water temperature
agencies, and development teams that support and water salinity.
development, operations and dissemination
at prediction agencies. Through international
workshops, under the leadership of a dedicated Links to meteorology and WMO
Science Team, OceanPredict brings the various
communities together to advance the science and In moving forward, the link between operational
applications of ocean prediction. Leading experts oceanography and operational meteorology needs
from the WMO community are keynote speakers, to strengthen. More specifically, the full value chain
and some workshops are joint events with WMO in operational oceanography will require both
partners such as ECMWF. The OceanPredict Science international and national frameworks to deliver
Team has three core objectives: overall end user value. There is already significant
interaction with oceanography groups in the WMO
• assessments of forecast system and component community, such as evidenced by the emerging use
performance combined with component of the WMO Information System (WIS) for ocean
improvements observations. In moving forward, while most weather
prediction centres include ocean prediction in their
• initiatives aiming to exploit the forecasting activities, it will be important to strengthen the ocean-
systems for greater societal benefit weather relationship from observations through to
prediction and end use.
• evaluations of the dependence of the forecasting
systems and societal benefits on the components
of the observation system. Leveraging WMO Systems in the future of
Ocean Prediction

Outlook The WMO has well-developed frameworks covering

the full value chain for meteorological services that
As ocean forecast models progress, it will become evolves to meet demands while enabling new work
increasingly important to define and project what and information flows across the whole Earth System
type of events will be predictable by ocean prediction value chain. Three of these frameworks are discussed
systems and by coupled atmosphere ocean prediction in this section with respect to the ocean prediction
systems with useful accuracy and confidence intervals. value chain.

An aspect to keep in mind is the ability of systems WIGOS

and users to consume prediction products. A good
example of this is E-navigation to support maritime The WMO Integrated Global Observing System
safety, where new file standards and methodologies (WIGOS) provides an overarching framework for
will enable ship bridge-embedded or hand-held integrating the various sources of observations
navigation systems to fully exploit numerical output that contribute to WMO application areas. WMO
from ocean and atmospheric prediction systems in Rolling Review of Requirements (RRR) compares
real time. This will enable advanced route planning observational user requirements with observing
software, but also enable numerical engineering systems capabilities to determine how the design
models (digital twins) of a ship, translating of WIGOS needs to evolve. Together with impact
environmental prediction information into ship studies for the identification of observational gaps,
impact information. It is important to note that for the RRR is used to prioritize the evolution of the global
most at-sea activities, the user wants complete and observing systems and to recommend key actions to
coherent marine environmental information and WMO Members and other significant programmes
predictions, which could include variables like wind, to address gaps.
WMO BULLETIN 73

Figure 4: Data coverage by the three

major components of the Global
Observing System (GOS) (i.e., ships,
drifting buoys, and moored buoys)
based on information received by
Météo-France through the GTS
in 2018 (see legend for symbol
details). (from Front. Mar. Sci., 30
August 2019 | https://doi.org/10.3389/
fmars.2019.00419 )

The WIGOS framework provides a systematic approach for the exchange of data and information between all
that can enable ocean prediction groups to implement NMHSs and incorporates the long-established GTS
systematic evaluations of observed impacts against for the delivery of real-time observational data (and
forecasts in order to appraise performance across increasingly those metadata needed to make best
the whole ocean prediction value chain. In particular, use of the real-time data) needed for their operational
implementation of a Rolling Review Process on requirements. While the GTS remains the standard
the Ocean Forecast side would better connect the method of global data exchange between NMHSs and
full oceanographic value chain, and ensure that fulfills their operational requirements and applications,
investment in ocean observations provide the best the academic community and the public have a clear
value for money with respect to better ocean prediction need for a more streamlined and consolidated data
information services. management architecture, which should provide
access to data and metadata in a common format. 
WIS
GDPFS
The WMO Information System (WIS) join NMHSs and
regions together for data exchange, management and The WMO Global Data-Processing and Forecasting
processing. At present most ocean observations used
in near real-time prediction systems are transmitted via
System (GDPFS) enables all NMHSs to make use of
advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP) by
Prediction
the WMO Global Telecommunications System (GTS) providing a framework for sharing data related to
(See figure below for coverage of GTS transmitted operational meteorology, hydrology, oceanography
observations in 2018). and climatology. The GDPFS is a cascading process
that brings the NWP strength of WMO’s global centres
GTS has also proven to be an effective channel for (WMCs) down to regional centres (RSMCs) then
Tsunami Warnings by delivering messages with a to NMHSs in a coordinated way. RSMCs enable
delay that is, in most cases, less than two minutes. the delivery of harmonized services, including for
WMO is evolving WIS/GTS to use new technologies marine and ocean matters. More than 40 RSMCs
for data exchange, and WIS 2.0 will provide better have responsibility to support ocean related services
means to subscribe to data streams and effective including for marine meteorology, ocean wave
ways to deliver warning messages. prediction, severe weather and tropical cyclones.

In the future, enabling ocean data on the WIS will have As previously mentioned, seven of the nine designated
many dividends. WIS provides the global infrastructure WMCs have ocean prediction systems encompassed
74 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

The GDPFS centres responsible for weather forecasting up to 30 days (upper) and for long-range and climate
forecasting (lower).
WMO BULLETIN 75

in the OceanPredict initiative that run in coupled or development through the best possible services,
uncoupled prediction modes as part of their day-to-day whether over land, at sea or in the air.” To achieve this,
operations. Encompassing ocean prediction systems WMO is embracing an Earth System approach that
within such a framework has many advantages, will enable access to and use of numerical analysis
including integration of scientific advances in ocean and Earth System prediction products at all temporal
predictions and applying new observation systems and spatial scales from the WMO Seamless GDPFS.
(ie. SWOT) into operational ocean/environmental
prediction systems. In order to continuously improve products and services,
all the key components of the Earth System need to
Such weather/ocean collaboration is already be integrated into seamless data assimilation and
underway, as evidenced by an upcoming ECMWF prediction systems, leveraging WIGOS, WIS 2.0 and the
and OceanPredict meeting on data assimilation in WMO Seamless GDPFS. Within the WMO community
May 2021. This collaboration needs to flourish. It the WMO Reform has provided the framework to
is anticipated that, under the UN Decade of Ocean achieve the integration of disciplines required to
Science for Sustainable Development, a framework can achieve this goal. It also provides mechanisms to better
be put in place for the full operational oceanographic partner with key relevant national and international
value chain, akin to that of the GDPFS. By the end of organizations, academic institutions and the private
the Decade, a fully integrated value chain for Marine sector. One single entity cannot achieve this by itself,
Environmental Prediction (Operational Oceanography and resource pressures are such that replication
and Meteorology) is envisaged, however, an open of existing infrastructure will not be possible. In
question remains: how should its ocean component addition, the required high-performance computing,
be built? The options are to build a full ocean value storage and telecommunication will likely exceed
chain framework first or to build ocean components what individual Nations can afford.
into the existing elements of the meteorological value
chain put together by the WMO. Public, academic and private partnerships are therefore
essential. Leveraging existing global, regional and
In moving forward, the link between operational national infrastructure will allow all communities to
oceanography and operational meteorology needs benefit from the information available to feed their
to strengthen. More specifically, the full value chain decision-making systems. WMO and its partners
in operational oceanography will require both firmly believe that together we will achieve the grand
international and national frameworks to deliver challenges facing humanity today – as underlined in
overall end user value. There is already significant the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
interaction with oceanography groups in the WMO, – and we will be better prepared to find solutions for
such as evidenced by the use of GTS for ocean
observations. In moving forward, while most weather
those to come in the future.
Prediction
prediction centres include ocean prediction in their
activities, it will be important to strengthen the ocean References available online
weather relationship from observations through to
prediction and end use products and services.

Partnerships for the future

The vision of the WMO, as stated in the WMO Strategic

Operational Plan 2020-2023, is “to see a world where
all nations, especially the most vulnerable, are
more resilient to the socioeconomic consequences
of extreme weather, climate, water and other
environmental events and underpin their sustainable
76 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Products and services for a

changing ocean
By Thomas J. Cuff1, Val Swail2, Sarah Grimes3, Christine Bassett4, Johan Stander3, Ian Lisk5,
Cyrille Honore3, Wilfran Moufouma Okia3, Patrick Parrish3 and Zhichao Wang3

Coastal communities regularly make make life- decision-making. Such services require a globally-
saving decisions in the face of extreme weather, connected and distributed effort, with strong
coastal inundation and rising sea levels. Scientists collaboration between the oceanographic, marine
predict that all of these threats will increase due meteorological and Earth science communities.
to climate change. Mariners rely on forecasts and Satellite applications, output from ocean and
warnings of impending high waves, high winds numerical weather and climate prediction models,
and sea ice, and they use information on surface forecasting systems and expert knowledge and
currents and winds to increase the efficiency of experience – down to the local level – are essentials
ocean transit – thereby helping to reduce pollution in the marine services value chain. A comprehensive
and greenhouse gas emissions. Coastal communities understanding of the needs of users and stakeholders
require meteorological and oceanographic (met- – shipping and other maritime industries, tourism
ocean) information to plan for and respond to marine and coastal communities – and how they interface
emergencies. It is, therefore, evident that short-term with the range of marine products and services being
weather forecasts, environmental met-ocean products provided, is also necessary.
and services, and seasonal, sub-seasonal and long-
term climate predictions are essential for national, To meet the many challenges related to climate
environmental and economic security and for the change and mitigate the impacts of human activity
safety of life and property at sea and in coastal on the Earth system, the weather, ocean and climate
communities. WMO and National Meteorological communities must harmonize their efforts. Close
and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) have worked cooperation within these communities enables
together to develop the capabilities, technologies innovation and the quick identification of solutions
and capacity to deliver tailored services in each of to the many challenges that coastal communities
these areas and for all of these stakeholders.12345 and marine ecosystems face today.

Maritime interests worldwide depend on timely,

accurate and relevant oceanographic and marine Coastal Services and Disaster Risk
meteorological analyses, forecasts and services, Reduction
tailored to the needs of individual and community
Coastal hazards – including weather-related events,
1 Chair, WMO Standing Committee for Marine Meteorological such as violent storms, extreme waves, swell, storm
and Oceanographic Services and Director, Office of Obser-
vations, National Weather Service, (US) National Oceanic
surge, increased river discharge, and geophysical
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) related events, such as tsunamis – cause significant
2 Emeritus Associate, Environment and Climate Change human and environmental damage, killing thousands
Canada and displacing hundreds of thousands every year.
3 WMO Secretariat
Some one billion people worldwide live on low-lying
4 Knauss Fellow, Office of Observations, NOAA
land that is less than 10 metres (m) above high tide
5 President, WMO Commission for Weather, Climate, Water
and Related Environmental Services & Applications, and
levels, and about a quarter of those live on land below
Head, Hazard Partnerships, The Met Office (UK) the 1 m level (Kulp and Strauss, 2019). The need for
WMO BULLETIN 77

MS Expedition, Errera Channel, Antarctica. As climate change creates more opportunities for tourism in the high
latitudes, so does the corresponding threat of a marine environmental emergency (Source: V. Grimes, 16 November
2018).

timely, reliable multi-hazard early warning systems

(MHEWS) to enable those people to move to safety Services in Oceanographic and
as hazards approach cannot be underestimated. Meteorological Communities

Tropical cyclones are particularly threatening to coastal It is important to note the differing perceptions
communities (see Whirling World – Tropical Cyclones of a “service” in the meteorological and
and the Ocean on page 95). However, it is flooding, oceanographic communities. Oceanographers
rather than wind, that is the primary killer when these tend to view a “service” as the provision of
extreme events occur. The combination of rapidly information and model output data to support a
rising storm surge and freshwater flooding resulting range of user-specific applications and systems,
from the heavy rains can produce severe coastal whether these are operationally supported or
inundation. Three of the four coastal inundation events not. As a result, there is a rapid uptake of new
with the highest fatalities in the past 50 years have science and innovation in the oceanographic
been due to storm surge. Most notable is the estimated community.
300 000 to 500 000 deaths due to Tropical Cyclone
Bhola in Bangladesh in 1970 (Cerveny et al, 2017). The meteorological community regards a
Though coastal inundation is often associated with “service” as also including the operationally-
tropical cyclones, it may also occur with extratropical supported delivery of a user-defined product
storms, including in ice-covered waters that can cause or data service. Therefore, meteorological
severe damage to coastal infrastructure. services are more structured, aligned with
quality management principles as promoted
WMO is implementing coastal MHEWS in communities by WMO for many years.
at risk. The WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting
Demonstration Project (CIFDP), established in 2009
(Swail et al. 2019), integrated met-ocean observations, as the Coastal Inundation Forecasting Initiative (CIFI)
such as sea level, ocean waves, wind, pressure and and with specific requests from Members to include
Services

precipitation with hydrological information such as tsunamis. The CIFI, along with other initiatives such
river stage and discharge. In 2019, the 18th World as the WMO Storm Surge Watch Scheme and the
Meteorological Congress agreed to sustain the effort Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)
78 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

of UNESCO coordinated global tsunami early warning

system will help countries to build greater capacity International initiatives supported
to provide early warnings for coastal inundation, by marine and ocean services
contributing to an integrated MHEWS in support of
national disaster risk reduction and management The marine and ocean services provided by
strategies and activities. WMO has been supporting WMO Members contribute, amongst others,
this in recent years through partnership with the to the following international initiatives:
International Network for MHEWS (IN-MHEWS) and
joint coordination of the Global MHEWS Conference. • International Maritime Organization’s (IMO)
(See Oceanic Science for Services in Small-Island Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS); Prevention
Developing States on page 101 and Multi-Hazard Early of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL); and
Warning Systems:The Coastal Inundation Forecasting International Code for Ships Operating in
Initiative on page 105) Polar Waters (Polar Code)

• UN Framework for Climate Change

Maritime Safety Services Convention (UNFCCC), including the Paris
Climate Change Agreement
The global economy relies on the safe and efficient
movement of goods and passengers between ports • Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk
and on commercial activities that take place on the Reduction (DRR)
open ocean and near coastlines. Traveling safely at
sea requires information regarding natural hazards. • Small Island Developing States (SIDS)
Maritime safety services refer to activities undertaken Accelerated Modalities of Action (SAMOA)
to enhance safe ocean transit and the conduct of Pathway
other activities at sea and near coasts, whether the
hazards relate to navigation or to weather. • UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is the • UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable
agency that maintains the UN International Convention Development.
for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS), and through

METAREA Map
(Source: WMO No. 558)
WMO BULLETIN 79

Oil visible on the surface of the Gulf of Mexico near the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on 12 May 2010 (Source: NOAA).

this they are responsible for ensuring minimum coordinators with their respective national agencies,
safety standards for life and ships at sea. The WMO is crucial to the safety of life and property at sea.
mandate for SOLAS is to ensure Members provide
relevant met-ocean maritime safety information
daily for decision-making by seaborne vessels. WMO Polar regions
supports NHMSs in their role as the authoritative
agencies for marine meteorological safety information Transiting near sea ice presents unique navigational
and services. challenges. The WMO works to coordinate standards,
terminology, exchange formats and other guidance
The WMO also supports the IMO’s Global Maritime material for sea-ice and iceberg products and services.
Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) through the This supports navigation, coastal and offshore activities
Worldwide Metocean Information and Warning Service in sea-ice and iceberg conditions by monitoring sea-ice
(WWMIWS), which coordinates the ocean through coverage in both hemispheres. In partnership with
21 defined areas, called METAREAs. NMHSs provide the International Ice Charting Working Group (IICWG),
weather-related Maritime Safety Information (MSI) WMO experts provide technical advice to national
through the WWMIWS in the form of marine warning Arctic and Antarctic ice forecasting centres. Through
and forecast products, transmitting them via the WMO its expert network, WMO also works to support the
Marine Broadcast System. METAREA Coordinators efforts of national ice services to provide products
are assigned by their governments to coordinate the and services in compliance with the IMO’s recently
provision of MSI for each area. They work closely implemented Polar Code (2017).
with their counterpart NAVAREA Coordinators, who
provide the navigational MSI through the Worldwide WMO participates in the Protection of the Arctic
Navigational Warning Service (WWNWS) of the Marine Environment (PAME) Shipping Best Practice
International Hydrographic Organization (IHO). This Forum coordinated by the Arctic Council, of which
Services

partnership between WMO, IHO and IMO, as well as it is an Observer. The Forum supports effective and
the interaction between METAREA and NAVAREA practical implementation of the IMO Polar Code (2017)
by publicizing information relevant to all involved
80 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Harmful algal bloom on 11 July 2019, Lake Erie, North American Great Lakes. (Source: NOAA)

in safe and environmentally sound Arctic shipping. such as oil and chemical spills at sea. Specialized
The WMO Polar Shipping page, initiated in 2020 and centres for marine emergency management enhance
directly linked to the PAME Polar Portal, acts as a technical capabilities, exchange diagnostic and
single entry point for public access to practical polar forecast data, and provide coordination for services
information relevant to shipping and polar operators. and information to meet requirements as defined
The bi-annual WMO Arctic Consensus Statement on by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
the Seasonal Climate Outlook and regional climate and IMO. WMO’s effort in this area is implemented
summary produced through the Arctic Climate Forums through the Global Data-Processing and Forecasting
also informs shipping communities of the sea-ice System (GDPFS), which downscales forecasts from
outlook during polar summer and winter seasons (see the global, to regional to national and local level.
Skating on Thinning Ice: Challenges in the Changing The added value of local knowledge and expertise
Arctic on page 86). in the final GDPFS step contributes to key SAR and
MEER decision-making (see Oil spill management
and salvage in the Indian Ocean on page 109).
Marine Emergency Response

As maritime activities and operations increase, so has Marine Climate Services

the need for operational services that deliver forecasts
and hazard/risk mapping for marine environmental Marine climate services support a wide range of
emergencies such as oil and chemical spills. WMO ocean activities – such as the design and operation
recognizes the need to support countries in Search of offshore and coastal facilities like drilling platforms
and Rescue (SAR) efforts and Marine Environmental and nuclear plants – marine transportation, fishery and
Emergency Response (MEER). SAR efforts track life regulatory activities for coastal states to ensure safety
and property at sea, while MEER is crucial for tracking of lives and the environment. These services are also
and containing the path of environmental pollutants, essential for establishing risk and vulnerability as a
WMO BULLETIN 81

pillar of impact-based forecasting. Climate services and long-range forecast products and services,
provide the baseline for climate change detection which might also lead to enhanced observations
and attribution for most marine variables, including and data transmission by fishery vessels. Liaison
waves, sea level, sea surface temperature, salinity, between meteorological services, oceanographic
sea ice and icebergs. institutions and regional fisheries management
bodies is important for establishing the requirements
Wind-generated waves play a major role in coastal for marine weather and climate information. WMO
sea-level dynamics and shoreline change. Future will continue this work in collaboration with the
changes to deepwater wave climate (height, frequency co-sponsored (IOC/WMO/UNEP/ISC) Global Ocean
and direction) will likely affect approximately 50% Observing Systems (GOOS), which coordinates
of the world's coastlines, and could drive significant observations, modelling and analysis of marine and
changes in coastal oceanic processes and hazards ocean variables to support research, assessments
(Morim et al., 2019). These issues are being addressed and operational ocean services worldwide.
through the WMO-supported Coordinated Ocean Wave
Climate Project (COWCLIP), the focus of which is being In addition, WMO supports climate services for
expanded to include global storm surge climatology. fisheries through Regional Climate Centres (RCCs), for
example in Western South America, where ENSO has
As coastal and maritime communities continue to a big influence on fish populations (see Monitoring
face unprecedented challenges in response to global ENSO and creating ocean and climate services - the
environmental change, there is an increasing need to role of CIIFEN on page 88). RCCs operate across
better understand local, regional, and global changes various geographical areas where climate variability
in natural phenomena. Further research is needed and change are pronounced and where forecasts
into how climate change will impact the intensity and are crucial to support seasonal planning in local
frequency of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), communities. For Arctic regions especially, where
the occurrence of marine heatwaves, especially in the ocean is a critical driver in the seasonal patterns,
tropical and polar regions, the intensity and frequency the Arctic Regional Climate Centre Network has
of harmful algal blooms (HABs), and waves and been established and the associated Arctic Climate
storm surge in polar regions that were previously Outlook Forum meets twice annually bringing together
protected by sea-ice cover. The WMO is working to providers and users of climate information across the
improve the provision of marine climate services Arctic region to agree on the coming fall and spring
that help coastal and maritime communities to better seasonal outlooks – with clear predictions of sea ice
prepare for sub-seasonal and seasonal events and to extent. All of this contributes to the Climate Service
develop long-range forecast products and services Information System, the operational backbone of the
to address emerging threats. Global Framework for Climate Services.

Accurate climate forecasts are of utmost importance

for food security, especially for fisheries. The Capacity Development and Marine
international coordination of the collection and Competencies
processing of marine and ocean data – and the
preparation and delivery to users of marine and ocean The WMO places great emphasis on building the
climate products and services – is priority for WMO. capacity of marine services in coastal states through
Operational oceanographic services are providing strong development and training programs, and
ocean re-analyses that will ensure the availability in cooperation with partners such as the IMO, IHO
of global data sets for fishery management decision and IOC. The Organization also strengthens public
support systems, especially related to the impacts of awareness and preparedness for hazards in coastal
weather and climate change on fishery resources. In communities. This is exemplified by the 2019 WMO
Services

2012, WMO and IOC of UNESCO recognized the need video on coastal inundation for the Pacific Islands,
to provide climate services for oceanic fishery and which includes education on both weather-related
aquaculture industries, for sub-seasonal, seasonal
82 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Coastal flooding awareness cartoon helping to inform the public on what to do, and what not to do, in the event
of a flood early warning (Source: WMO, 2019)

inundation and tsunamis and preparedness with help meteorological services to self-assess their
actions to be taken. marine capabilities. The Spanish-speaking staff of
NMHSs in South America were the first to participate
From the late 1990s to 2015, WMO offered training in the April to June 2020 (3-month) online session
workshops to NMHSs staff on Storm Surge and that was supported by the Spanish Meteorological
Wave Forecasting. The Guide to Wave Analysis and Agency (AEMET) and ended in June 2020. Ms. Alicia
Forecasting (WMO No. 702) and the Guide to Storm Cejas, METAREA Coordinator for Argentina noted
Surge Forecasting (WMO No. 1076) provided content that the WMO course “has been useful to focus on
for those workshops. several service delivery aspects, the main one being
to reach all users, because we will never give quality
WMO meets annually within a broader Joint WMO- service without knowing the needs of our users”.The
IMO-IOC-IHO-IALA6-IMPA 7 Capacity Development course will be expanded globally over the next four
Panel, to discuss common training, awareness and years. The course will also partly contribute to the
capacity development synergies and needs, while endorsed Marine Weather Competency Framework
ensuring open collaboration among partners. In for implementation in WMO Members.
addition to public awareness, through innovations in
technology and a commitment to improving public
weather services, WMO is bolstering the capability The road ahead
of meteorological services to provide better early
warnings and forecasts, and to understand their As we gain a better understanding of the needs and
customer needs for impact-based forecasting. challenges facing users and stakeholders in coastal
areas and the marine community, the WMO will
There are significant gaps in all regions of the world continue to work with partners to strengthen the
when it comes marine service delivery. To address capacity of Members to provide operational weather,
this issue, WMO has designed a unique course to ocean and climate forecasts, while promoting a safe,
productive and healthy ocean. Several reports, most
recently the WMO State of Climate Services 2020,
6 International Association of Marine Aids to Navigation and
Lighthouse Authorities have highlighted the need to strengthen the capacity
7 International Maritime Pilots‘ Association (IMPA) of Members to provide authoritative early warnings
WMO BULLETIN 83

for marine and terrestrial areas. Integrated multi- WMO No. 702 Guide to Wave Analysis and Forecasting
hazard early warning systems are a key component (2018 edition)
of climate change adaptation and of informed disaster
risk reduction and management activities. The WMO WMO No. 1076 Guide to Storm Surge Forecasting
Global Multi-Hazard Alert System (GMAS) framework, (2011 edition)
currently under development, will better support
preparedness and response decisions for maritime
and coastal communities while facilitating capacity
development.

References

Cerveny et al, 2017: WMO Assessment of Weather

and Climate Mortality Extremes: Lightning, Tropical
Cyclones, Tornadoes, and Hail, Climate Weather and
Society. Weather, Climate, and Society, 9, 487-497,
doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0120.1.

IHO No. 53, Joint IHO/IMO/WMO Manual on Maritime

Safety Information

IMO International Code for Ships Operating in Polar

Waters (entered into force, 2017)

IMO International SOLAS Convention (1974), as

amended

Kulp, S.A., and B. H. StraussNew elevation data triple

estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise
and coastal flooding. Nat Commun 10, 4844 (2019).
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z

Morim et al, 2019: Robustness and uncertainties in

global multivariate wind-wave climate projections.
Nature Climate Change, 9, 711-718, doi: 10.1038/
s41558-019-0542-5.

Swail et al (2019) Early Warnings of Coastal Inundation,

WMO Bulletin Vol 68 (2)

WMO No. 558, Manual on Marine Meteorological

Services (2018 edition) – map updated in 2021 for
the GMDSS website

WMO (2019) Coastal Inundation - Public Awareness

Services

for the Pacific Islands Video (Youtube)

WMO (2020) State of the Climate Services Report

Extreme Maritime Weather:
84

Improving Safety of Life at Sea

By Joseph Sienkiewicz1 and Thomas J. Cuff2

Incidents in recent years have highlighted the hazards well-above 100 knots and waves up to 15 metres
of extreme weather at sea, emphasizing the need high in an explosively intensifying winter storm off
for action to better protect life and property aboard the southeastern U.S. coast. Unable to overcome the
vessels. Hurricane force winds and phenomenal rapidly changing conditions, the vessel was drawn
waves, in particular, endanger sea-going vessels into the storm, suffering a partial loss of propulsion
regardless of size. Ships operating in high latitudes and requiring repairs upon return to port.
also face the threat of freezing spray, in addition to
the more well-known hazards created by icebergs
and sea ice. Despite the availability of high-resolution
satellite imagery, increasingly skilful numerical
weather prediction models and improved forecasting
services, in the twenty-first century vessels continue
to be lost at sea. 1 2

The loss of the SS El Faro near the Bahama Islands,

with all 33 souls aboard, during Hurricane Joaquin
in 2015 was particularly notable. The follow-on
investigation exposed problems with the decision
processes aboard the ship, particularly the proper use
GOES-16 geo-colour imagery of 3 intense extratropical
of hurricane predictions and the criticality of timely cyclones in the north Atlantic Ocean on 17 January 2020.
information in rapidly evolving weather. In 2019, the The western most cyclone, south of Newfoundland,
tug Bourbon Rhode perished in Hurricane Lorenzo generated a broad area of hurricane force winds. The
in the Atlantic Ocean, losing 11 of its crew of 14. In cyclones west of Greenland and in the eastern Atlantic
both generated storm force winds. (Source: NOAA)
2020, Typhoon Maysak claimed the Gulf Livestock 1
in the East China Sea, with just 2 of 43 crew members
surviving; nearly 6 000 live cattle were lost. More recently, in March 2019, cruise ship Viking Sky
lost propulsion power in rough seas off the rocky
Extratropical cyclones at sea can be just as dangerous Norwegian coast, dragging both anchors for a time.
as the extreme winds and waves generated by Fortunately, the anchors held nearshore, allowing the
hurricanes. These systems traverse the mid and evacuation of approximately 460 of its passengers via
high latitudes and are often larger in size and with a helicopter prior to being towed to port. Initial findings
faster forward motion than tropical cyclones, causing indicated that the diesel generators shutdown from
conditions at sea to rapidly change. In the North a loss of lubricating oil suction due, in part, to the
Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, hurricane force winds vessel’s pitching and rolling in heavy seas.
associated with extratropical cyclones occur more
often than hurricanes. In February 2016, the cruise There was a series of fatal ship losses in the South
ship Anthem of the Seas, en route from New York to China Sea during December 2020. Near the end of
Port Canaveral, Florida, experienced extreme winds December 2020, the fishing vessel Yong Yu Sing #18,
operating in the open waters of the North Pacific, was
1 NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), Ocean Prediction lost about 530 nautical miles northeast of Midway
Center Island, in a very strong storm of hurricane force
2 NOAA National Weather Service; Office of Observations; intensity. While the vessel survived the storm and was
Chair, WMO Standing Committee-Marine Meteorological
and Oceanographic Services (SC-MMO); Member, WMO-IOC
located, its crew of 10 appeared to have abandoned
Joint Collaborative Board (JCB) ship; none were found.
WMO BULLETIN 85

There was a marked increase in container loss and Weather:Towards Safety of Life at Sea and a Sustainable
damage in late 2020, particularly, over the North Pacific Blue Economy” at IMO Headquarters in London. Over
Ocean. Most noteworthy, the ONE Apus en route from 200 participants from over 40 different countries
Yantian, China, to Long Beach, U.S., in late November attended, representing private and public sectors,
was well south of a large storm of hurricane force including government ministers and ambassadors.
strength yet still experienced phenomenal container Representatives from the WMO, IMO, IOC, marine
loss and damage. Over 1 800 containers were lost weather service providers, and various sectors of
overboard, with others damaged, far exceeding any the maritime industry explored how to improve the
previous documented container loss without losing value chain from the collection of marine weather
the ship itself. and ocean observations through to forecasting and
the dissemination of marine forecasts and services
to users and stakeholders.

Working together, the WMO and IMO seek a wide

range of societal benefits, including:

• a reduction in the loss of life and property at sea

and along coastlines,

• improved operational efficiency and reduced

emissions through optimal ship voyage routing,
Damage to the container ship ONE Apus, 8 December
2020 (Source: Twitter/@nobuya0827) • environmental monitoring and forecasting to aid
coastal management, and
While many losses at sea can be attributed to extreme
winds and waves, ice accretion on the superstructure • more effective environmental emergency response
and masts of vessels operating in the high latitudes efforts.
can destabilize them, causing them to capsize. Freezing
spray and the subsequent ice accretion may have The next WMO/IMO International Symposium will be
been a significant factor in the sinking of the both the hosted by Indonesia, hopefully in 2022.
Scandies Rose off Alaska with five lives lost in late
December 2019, and the Russian trawler Onega in the
Barents Sea with seventeen lives lost in December
2020.

Extreme maritime weather continues to contribute

to the loss of cargo, vessels, and crews. However,
investigations reveal a number of causative factors
in addition to the weather. Under the Safety of Life
at Sea (SOLAS) Convention, the WMO and IMO have
collectively worked to reduce the vulnerability of
the maritime community in the event of hazardous
or extreme maritime weather. Despite this, there
continues to be an unacceptable loss of life and
property at sea. In view of this, and recognizing the
growing demand for marine services that communicate
Services

impact-based forecasts for better decision-making,

in October 2019 the WMO and IMO jointly held the
first International Symposium on “Extreme Maritime
Skating on Thinning Ice:
86 Vol. 67 (1) - 2018

Challenges in the Changing Arctic

By Thomas J. Cuff1, Keld Qvistgaard2,John Parker3 and Christine Bassett4

Readers of the Bulletin are keenly aware of climate shipping season. Routing ships through the Arctic
change and its impact on everyday life; however, during the summer season has the potential to save
they may not know that, in the immediate future, it substantial costs and reduce fuel consumption for
is the highly sensitive polar regions that may be the shipping goods between northern Europe and Asia,
most impacted. This is particularly true of the Arctic. although significant variability in geographic coverage
The gradual warming of the Arctic Ocean and its from year to year creates uncertainty in the start
surrounding seas is a direct outcome of the significant dates and length of each shipping season. However,
warming of land masses in the high latitudes, especially more ship transits also increases the likelihood of
during the Eurasian summer season. This warming maritime incidents and the associated potential for
has steadily thinned sea ice formed over centuries. adverse ecological impacts in the culturally and
Although the entire basin freezes during the winter, environmentally sensitive Arctic. Hence, maritime
the diminished sea-ice coverage during the summer authorities in the region must continue to increase
season results in a relatively large extent of thinner their capacity to respond to marine environmental
winter ice over the Arctic. This relatively thin “first emergencies.
year ice” melts quickly, allowing the Arctic Ocean to
absorb more of the sun’s heat. This, in turn, gradually
thins the thicker “multi-year ice” which, over several
summer seasons, eventually melts and further erodes
the summer ice pack. 1 2 3 4

Although conditions do vary somewhat from year to

year, minimum Arctic sea-ice extent in the Arctic, which
typically occurs in mid-September each year, has
shown a general decline since satellite records began
in the late 1970s. According to the U.S. National Snow
and Ice Data Center, the past 14 summer seasons,
from 2007–2020, represent the lowest 14 years of
minimum ice extent. The minimum Arctic sea-ice
extent in 2020 was the second lowest on record.
Arctic sea-ice concentration (%), 15 September 2020
(Source: U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center)
The diminishing summertime Arctic sea-ice extent is
having profound effects on the region. While there is
some inter-annual variability in coverage, the general The decrease in summer sea-ice extent has also
trend towards an overall decrease in summer sea increased the threat of storm surge in the region.
ice is increasing the length of a safe Arctic Ocean With more open water and shorter seasons with ice
coverage, more of the Arctic coastline is susceptible
to damage from high winds and waves. The impacts
1 NOAA National Weather Service; Office of Observations;
Chair, WMO Standing Committee-Marine Meteorological to the shoreline in some areas have been startling.
and Oceanographic Services (SC-MMO); Member, WMO-IOC The U.S. Geological Survey has documented erosion
Joint Collaborative Board (JCB) rates along the north coast of Alaska of as much as
2 Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI); and Member, SC-MMO
18 metres per year. Along the west coast of Alaska,
3 Environment and Climate Change, Canada (ECCC); and
towns are increasingly threatened by inundation.
Vice-Chair, SC-MMO
4 Knauss Fellow, Office of Observations, National Weather
Service, NOAA
WMO BULLETIN 87

Another demonstration of a changing landscape in American Ice Service (Canada, U.S.) and the EU’s
the Arctic was the dramatic break-up of the Milne Ice Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service
Shelf on Ellesmere Island, Canada, in July 2020. It (CMEMS) are a few examples. Operational sea-ice and
was considered the last of Canada’s ice shelves. Its iceberg services are coordinated globally through the
break-up created large ice islands that are now adrift International Ice Charting Working Group (IICWG), an
in the Arctic Ocean and reduced the ice shelf extent independently chartered entity representing 15 of
by almost half. This was attributed to above normal the world’s operational national ice services in both
temperatures, sustained offshore winds and open hemispheres.
water in front of the ice shelf.
During the first WMO-IMO International Symposium
on Extreme Maritime Weather (2019), participants
identified several key recommendations in support
of safe Polar navigation, including:

• Better monitoring of climate change to provide

long-range services

• Incorporating and standardizing ice charts into

shipboard Electronic Chart Display and Information
System (ECDIS)

Tweet by ECCC Canadian Ice Service regarding Milne Ice • Establishing standards for ice forecasters and
Shelf collapse (2 August 2020) analysts

Changes in the extent and thickness of sea ice present • Improving iceberg models to predict location drift
an emerging social and economic threat to coastal and deterioration
communities in the Arctic. The reduction of multi-
year ice leaves much of the Arctic vulnerable to an • Improving training to close the gap between met-
increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of ocean information providers and users.
marine heatwaves. The timing and duration of these
events hold enormous implications for the timing of
nutrient delivery and primary productivity, as well
the reproductive success of culturally, economically
and ecologically important species. Impacts include
community and geographic shifts in key marine species
such as copepods, krill, pollock and salmon; the closure
of numerous commercially important fisheries; and
earlier arrival of marine species at higher latitudes.
Moreover, these events led to increased harmful algal
blooms (HABs) further north and mass stranding of
marine mammals and seabirds.
Sea ice surrounding the Southern tip of Greenland, Cape
Sea ice analysis and services are provided worldwide Farewell (Source: K. Qvistgaard, 10 April 2010)
to mariners and other users through a series of
national and regional services. The Baltic Sea Ice
Services (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia,
Services

Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Russia

and Sweden), the European Ice Services (Denmark,
Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), the North
Monitoring ENSO and creating ocean
88

and climate services - the role of CIIFEN

By Felipe Costa do Carmo and Juan José Nieto, Centro Internacional para la Investigación del
Fenómeno de El Niño (CIIFEN)/Regional Climate Centre for Western South America (RCC-WSA)

The intense 1997/1998 El Niño had serious impacts and cold. In consequence, the forced migration of
on many countries around the world, including populations, after the collapses of their livelihoods
those in the western region of South America. In and damages to basic infrastructure, was attributed
the coastal region of Peru and Ecuador increases in to the El Niño (FAO, 2016; OCHA, 2016; UNDRR, 2016).
precipitation led to severe flooding and significant
economic losses, mainly in fishing and agriculture
sectors (CAF, 2000). After this event, the United
Nations General Assembly proposed for the creation
of the Centro Internacional para la Investigación del
Fenómeno de El Niño (CIIFEN), which would ally
WMO, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk
Reduction (UNDRR) and the Government of Ecuador,
and later the government of Spain joined through the
Agency of Meteorology of Spain (AEMET). Thereafter
evaluation missions and a series of regional meetings
preceded the launch CIIFEN in 2003 in Guayaquil, Flooding in Ecuador caused by extreme precipitation
Ecuador. during El NIño 2015/2016 (Credit: Diario El Telégrafo)

In 2015, CIIFEN became the designated WMO Regional CIIFEN carries out operational analysis of ENSO
Climate Centre (RCC) for Western South America (RCC- conditions. Its monthly bulletins contain detailed
WSA) at the request of the National Meteorological information on monitoring and evolution of the most
and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of Bolivia, important oceanic and atmospheric variables to
Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela. This declare an early warning. Bulletins that compile
designation opened opportunities to improve regional and summarize the information produced by Global
climate and oceanic products and services while Producing Centres (GPCs) are shared with subscribers
strengthening the regional platform and horizontal through e-mail and social media.
cooperation among the region’s institutions.

CIIFEN began to host annual Regional Climate Outlook Scientific value and benefits of ocean and
Forums (RCOFs) for western South America. The climate services
forecast is produced by each NMHS of the RCC-WSA,
compiled by CIIFEN and distributed to a wide range Monitoring and forecasting climate and oceanic
of users from many sectors. conditions, as well as the updating ENSO perspectives
is the beginning of the process, the information must
then be communicated in an assertive, timely manner
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using language that is accessible to the end users.
monitoring and its impacts Tailored end-user services also need to be developed.
Ocean and climate services are especially important
The 2015/2016 El Niño event was declared one of for fisheries and agriculture in western South America,
the three strongest recorded since 1950, on par with where food security and national economies depend
the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 El Niño events (WMO, to a large extent on these sectors.
2016) (Image 2). The impacts were felt around the
globe – an estimated 60 million people were affected CIIFEN has been involved in various projects and
by El Niño-related drought, floods and extreme heat initiatives to evaluate how ocean and atmospheric
WMO BULLETIN 89

to obtain a quantity of data and information that

was unimaginable in previous decades. However,
inter-institutional exchange and coordination must
be strengthened in order to integrate climate and
ocean information into government and development
sector planning. For this, it is essential to have the
information that addresses end user needs, translated
into terms and language understood by the end-user.

References

CAF, 2000: Las lecciones de El Niño Ecuador. Memorias

del fenómeno El Niño 1997-1998, retos y propuestas
para la región Andina, Corporación Andina de Fomento
[CAF], accessed 06 January 2021

FAO, 2016: El Niño and La Niña: Preparedness and

Response, Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO],
accessed 06 January 2021

Martínez, R., Zambrano, E., Nieto, J. J., Hernández, J.

& Costa, F., 2017: Evolución, vulnerabilidad e impactos
económicos y sociales de El Niño 2015-2016 en América
Latina, Investigaciones Geográficas, (68), 65-78

WMO, 2016: Exceptionally strong El Niño has passed

its peak, but impacts continue, 18 February 2016,
Seasonal precipitation forecast for December 2020 – World Meteorological Organization [WMO], accessed
February 2021, made by the National Meteorological and
06 January 2021
Hydrological Services of the countries of western South
America (Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and
Venezuela) and Paraguay.This information is sent to CIIFEN OCHA, 2016: El Niño: Overview of impact, projected
every month for the production of the regional bulletin. humanitarian need and response, 16 August 2016,
United Nations Office for the Coordination of
variables influence agricultural productivity. The most Humanitarian Affairs [OCHA], accessed 06 January
recent, sought to understand the relationship between
the ocean and climate with the productivity of cocoa UNDRR, 2016: The human cost of the hottest year
plants in Ecuador. It included analysis of how the El on record, 11 February 2016, United Nations Office
Niño/La Niña events have affected productivity in past for Disaster Risk Reduction [UNDRR], accessed 06
harvests. Such research will improve Early Warning January 2021
Systems and the use of climate and ocean information
in agricultural planning and decision-making.

Gaps and further steps

Services

Science is advancing in leaps and bounds, especially

in the area of climate and oceanography. The
development of satellites has made it possible
Predicting extreme ocean temperatures on
90

timescales useful for marine management

By Claire Spillman1 and Alistair Hobday2

Ocean temperature extremes, such as marine

heatwaves, can have a major impact on marine
ecosystem health and the productivity of fisheries
and aquaculture. 1 2

The oceans around Australia have warmed

substantially since 1910, when compared to average
ocean temperatures for 1961–1990. Warming is
particularly pronounced in south-east and south-
west waters – across the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Climate projections indicate that this warming trend Marine heatwave definition as per Hobday et al 2016
is set to continue in coming decades, together with an (Source: www.marineheatwaves.org/all-about-mhws.
increase in frequency, duration and intensity of marine html)
heatwaves. What will this mean for marine habitats?

Forecasts for marine industries and

managers

Warmer oceans can have significant impacts on marine

ecosystems such as mass coral bleaching, increasing
disease risks for coral and fish, and changing the
growth rates, distribution and migration patterns
of fish. Extreme events such as marine heatwaves,
combined with a warming baseline, have the potential
to seriously impact marine ecosystems and the fishery
industry in the coming decades.
Annual sea surface temperature anomalies in the
Australian region, referenced to the 1961–1990 standard
averaging period. State of the Climate: www.bom.gov. How can marine managers better cope with these
au/state-of-the-climate/oceans.shtml extreme ocean heat events and their impacts?

Marine heatwaves are typically defined as a period Advance warning of an impending marine heatwave
of five or more days in which ocean temperatures can provide an early window for the implementation
are above the 90th percentile, that is in the top 10%, of management strategies to minimize impacts. The
of recorded figures for that region at that time of Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) produces
year. These severe ocean events have increased in operational seasonal forecasts of sea surface
frequency, duration and intensity over the past 100 temperature (SST) and thermal stress up to six months
years, with impacts on species and habitats reported into the future for Australian waters (www.bom.
around the world. These extremes offer a view of gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/sst-outlook-map.
ocean conditions that may be the usual in the future. shtml). BOM, in collaboration with the Australian
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation (CSIRO), has worked together with
many marine industries and agencies around the
1 Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
2 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organ-
country to develop useful forecast products to help
isation (CSIRO), Australia stakeholders manage their climate risk.
WMO BULLETIN 91

Seasonal forecasts of ocean temperature several how bleaching events evolve over time and advance
months into the future can support operational warning of conditions that promote bleaching allows
decision-making, and help inform questions such as: surveys to occur before, during and after an event to
gauge the full impact on Reef health. Forecasts are
• Where do we survey this summer in the marine also used to brief the government, tourist operators
park? and the general public.

• Will our fish stocks be further south this year?

• Do we need extra staff to manage fish farm

operations this summer?

• Should we harvest from our aquaculture business

to avoid a heatwave?

Forecast usefulness depends on the management

decision timeline and the critical environmental period
affecting the decision, together with forecast accuracy
Surveying bleached coral in the Great Barrier Reef.
at that time. BOM and CSIRO have spent over 10 (Credit: P Marshall, Commonwealth of Australia Great
years working together with marine stakeholders Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority)
to improve forecast delivery and use. They have
developed seasonal forecast tools in Australia that
are used by coral reef managers, fishers and fishery
management authorities, and aquaculture businesses.

Predicting coral bleaching risk

The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority has been

using BOM's seasonal ocean temperature forecast
tools since 2009 to help support the management
of the Reef. Seasonal ocean temperature forecasts
indicate how much warmer or cooler than usual
surface oceans are around the Reef over the coming
six months. Accumulated thermal stress forecasts also
predict how long temperatures will exceed the normal
summer temperatures. High ocean temperatures are
the primary cause of mass coral bleaching, a stress
response of corals whereby they expel their tiny
symbiotic algae (zooxanthellae), exposing their white
skeleton. Mass coral bleaching events occurred on
the Reef in 1998, 2002, 2016, 2017 and 2020.

The Great Barrier Reef is larger than Italy and presents

a huge management task. Reef managers use forecast
information to determine the risk of mass bleaching
Services

occurring in the coming summer. Managers can then Seasonal ocean outlook of sea surface temperature
target regions of the Reef and relocate resources for anomalies (difference from normal) for Australian waters
monitoring of bleaching. It is important to understand for February-July 2020 issued on 1 February 2020.
92 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Predicting marine heatwaves

There is growing interest in the prediction of ocean

extremes such as marine heatwaves. A new BOM/
CSIRO research project is investigating the seasonal
prediction of marine heatwaves several months into
the future. This unique research will develop new
seasonal marine heatwave forecast products for
Australian waters.

These forecasts will provide information regarding

location, severity, duration and likelihood of future
marine heatwaves, all important considerations for
proactive operational responses and management
of the impacts of these extreme events.

Looking to the future

Warming ocean temperatures due to climate change

are likely to increase both the frequency and severity of
heat related impacts on marine resources in the future.
Skillful prediction of these extreme ocean events can
assist governments, industries and communities to
respond and adapt to the growing impact of marine
heatwaves in a changing climate.
From Us to Us - Enhancing maritime
weather and coastal services in
WMO BULLETIN 93

Indonesia and beyond

By Dwikorita Karnawati1, Guswanto, Nelly Florida Riama, Eko Prasetyo, Anni Arumsari Fitriany,
Andri Ramdhani, Bayu Edo Pratama, Suci Dewi Anugrah2

Indonesia has over 17 000 islands and one of the longest fishery and aquaculture sectors to increase their
coastlines in the world. It is heavily reliant on marine understanding and use of weather and climate
industry, food and transportation for a sustainable information. Various communication methods are
economy and livelihoods. The safety and security of used to reach a broad public audience, including
people at sea and along its coastlines is preeminently social media.
important for Agency for Meteorology, Climatology
and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia (BMKG).

Indonesia is the epicentre of multi-scale interactions

in the atmosphere and ocean that have a profound
impact on the state of the Pacific and Indian oceans
as well as on air-sea thermal exchanges, modulating
climate variability over a wide range of time scales.

Maritime Weather Observation and

Services BMKG Fisherman Weather Field-School works closely
with the traditional fishery and aquaculture sectors to
increase their understanding and use of weather and
From 2020–2025, the BMKG Strengthening of Marine climate information (Lempasing Fishing Port, Bandar
Meteorology Systems Project (MMS) will enhance and Lampung, 11 March 2021)
modernize ocean and meteorological observations,
adding both fixed (coastal buoy, marine AWS, HF Furthermore, BMKG is formulating marine impact-
Radar) and mobile (vessel AWS, surface drifter, based information for the marine transportation sector
floats, and glider) stations. These observations will (see maritim.bmkg.go.id/inawis) and a trajectory
be assimilated into a high resolution coupled ocean- model to support Search and Rescue (SAR) activities
atmospheric model. 1 2 and environmental emergency services to trace and
mitigate the spread of oil spill.
The BMKG Ocean Forecast System (OFS) provides
a 10-day forecast on wind, waves, swell, currents,
temperature, salinity, water level, trajectory and
coastal inundation for the safety of maritime activities
in Indonesia. These services support sustainable
development across various sectors, including
shipping, fisheries, mining, energy, tourism, industry,
search and rescue, small island area resources and
research.
BMKG – Ocean Forecast System

In addition, BMKG established the Fisherman Weather

Field-School to work closely with the traditional BMKG has shared its developments in maritime
weather services with the small-island developing
1 Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) states in WMO Regional Association V (South-
Services

of the Republic of Indonesia; Permanent Representative to

West Pacific) (RA V). For example, OFS has been
the WMO
2 Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency (BMKG)
implemented in the Solomon Islands since 2017 with
of the Republic of Indonesia support from United Nations Economic and Social
94 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) and (InaTEWS) and as the Tsunami Service Provider for
WMO guidance. In addition, the BMKG hosted WMO 28 countries along the Indian Ocean rim.
RegionalTraining Centre provided basic virtual training
on impact-based forecast, including for maritime To strengthen the tsunami monitoring and early
weather services, to 34 participants from RA V. warning, 411 sensors are integrated to the Internet of
Things (IoT) system and Artificial Intelligent (AI) that
supports 18 000 tsunami scenarios. A cable-based
tsunami-meter, buoys and tsunami radar will soon
enhance the network’s capacity to detect near-field
and non-tectonic tsunamis. Social media and mobile
applications extend the reach of BMKG’s warning and
alerts for all such events.

Through education at the Earthquake Field School,

BMKG strengthens community resilience in vulnerable
coastal areas.The program promotes the integration of
local knowledge into the natural warning approach for
near-field tsunami, and trains participants to evacuate
immediately to the safe tsunami zone whenever they
BMKG and Search and Rescue (SAR) activities feel the shaking of a quake longer than the time it
takes to count to ten.

Coastal Hazard Management BMKG is also an active member of the Intergovernmental

Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO,
The Indonesia Coastal Inundation Forecast System especially in its role as the tsunami service provider
(INA-CIFS) is being developed as part of OFS to for the Indian Ocean Region and as the host of the
provide coastal flood early warning services using Indian Ocean Tsunami Information Center.
coastal inundation modelling.The pilot projects for the
system were implemented in Jakarta and Semarang.

The end-to-end of the Tsunami Early Warning System

(InaTEWS)

Its location at the juncture of four active tectonic

plates leaves Indonesia prone to earthquakes and
tsunamis. BMKG has a central role in the operation
of the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System
Whirling World – Tropical Cyclones
WMO BULLETIN 95

and the Ocean

By Anne-Claire Fontan1, Taoyong Peng1, Xiao Zhou1, Sarah Grimes1, Estelle de Coning1, Zhuo Wang2,
Nanette Lomarda1, Champika Gallage1, Cyrille Honoré1, Jürg Luterbacher1, Anthony Rea1, Johan Stander1

Over the past 50 years, 1 945 disasters have been attributed to tropical cyclones, which killed 779 324 people
and caused US$ 1.4 trillion in economic losses – an average of 43 deaths and US$ 78 million in damages
every day. In terms of weather, climate and water-related disasters, tropical cyclones represent 17% of
disasters, 38% of deaths, and 38% of economic losses. – WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from
Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970-2019) to be published in 2021

Tropical cyclone! Typhoon! Hurricane! Whichever

word is used -depending on your region - the image
is the same: violent winds that can destroy coastal
communities, and torrential downpours that can
trigger landslides and flash floods. The impacts are
devastating at sea and at landfall, as the combination
of waves, storm surge and rainfall can result in
catastrophic coastal inundation that takes a heavy
toll on life and property. 1 2

Damage and devastation caused by storm surge after

Super Typhoon Haiyan hit central Philippines 10 November
2013. (Credit: Marcel Crozet/ILO 2013)

Ocean observations for tropical cyclones

Hurricane Iota at peak intensity approaching Nicaragua on Tropical cyclone is the generic term for the rotating,
16 November 2020, 1500 UTC (Source: NOAA, GOES-16). organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that
originates over tropical or subtropical waters and
The death and destruction caused by tropical cyclones decays and dissipates as it moves over cooler waters
led to global calls for action at the United Nations or land. Formation (cyclogenesis) and intensification
in the 1970s that laid the foundation for the creation depends strongly on ocean temperatures, exceeding
of the WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) 40 26° Celsius (C) within the top 60 metres. Ocean
years ago. Its aim was to help set-up regionally and observations – satellite and in situ – are, therefore,
nationally coordinated early warning systems to essential for early forecast and warnings for tropical
reduce the loss of life and damage from these extreme cyclones.
weather events. The collaboration now in place with
national, regional and global stakeholders remains International cooperation has led to real-time and
key to the success of activities that help to reduce the global tropical cyclone monitoring through rapid-
losses associated with tropical cyclones. scanning geostationary satellites. From the first
polar orbiting meteorological satellite in 1960 to
Services

the geostationary operational satellites in 2021, the

1 WMO Secretariat
2 University of Illinois; Chair, Tropical Meteorology Research
evolution of satellite capability brought enormous
Working Group change to tropical cyclone monitoring and analysis
96 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

over the ocean. Today – thanks to international data WMO/IOC-UNESCO Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS)
exchange from surface-, airborne, and space-based network deploys expendable bathythermographs
platforms, along with improvements in modelling (XBTs), Argo floats and drifting buoys to sample
and advances in computation – the five-day track ocean temperature. Additionally, VOS and moored
forecast is as accurate as was the two-day forecast and drifting buoys may also provide wind, wave,
in the 1960s. sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure
measurements. Atmospheric pressure at sea level is
also a crucial observation as it is directly associated
with the intensity of a cyclone.

Coordination of forecasting and warning

services

WMO plays an important role in supporting countries

to improve their tropical cyclone forecast and warning
services through well-coordinated regional and
(Left) cyclone over the Bay of Bengal, 11 November 1970 national centres. The TCP encompasses five regional
(Source: NOAA); (Right) Super Cyclonic Storm Amphan bodies, with their respective Tropical Cyclone Regional
over the Bay of Bengal on 18 May 2020. (Source: NASA)
Specialized Meteorological Centres (TC RSMCs3) and
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
Polar orbiting satellites allow observations such as (NMHSs).
the extent of hurricane and storm force winds at sea,
sea surface temperature and features and, recently, Today, RSMCs are leading the development of
satellite-derived coastal bathymetry – depth and forecasting products and services with sector and
contours of underwater terrain. Coastal bathymetry location-specific impacts to support national responses
data improves the accuracy of storm surge estimation. for disaster risk reduction with more certainty than
before. These are being developed for tropical
cyclone forecasting, marine meteorology, ocean wave
prediction, severe weather forecasting. TC RSMCs
provide forecasting guidance on tropical cyclone
track and intensity, together with information on other
marine related hazards, for national authoritative
forecast and warning services. Recent developments
include products depicting location specific potential
for storm surge inundation. Since 2008, all TC RSMCs
have implemented storm surge forecasting models
and capabilities through the WMO Storm Surge
Watch System.

Forecasting information over the oceans regarding

hazards associated with tropical cyclones is provided
Altimeter-derived Tropical Cyclone heat potential for 28 to maritime interests via the Global Maritime Distress
August 2005 and Hurricane Katrina track (Source: COMET, and Safety System (GMDSS).
Microwave Remote Sensing, 2nd Edition)

The network of offshore in situ observations provides

a better understanding of air-sea interaction, as such 3 TC RSMC is an RSMC which conducts Tropical Cyclone
it is essential for the tropical cyclone forecasting. The forecasting, including marine-related hazards.
WMO BULLETIN 97

The 1st WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone, held 25 November – 5 December 1985 in Bangkok,
Thailand (Source: Thailand Meteorological Department)

researchers, including storm surge experts. In addition,

the WMO World Weather Research Programme has
coordinated field experiments to better understand the
intensity, structure, motion and precipitation processes
of tropical cyclones. Experts have also worked on
tropical cyclone climate change assessment. On the
short time scale, the ocean-related topics for research
are off-shore sudden changes of track and intensity,
extremely heavy rainfall outside the periphery of the
tropical cyclone, storm surge forecasting, and coastal
flooding around landfall period. On the sub-seasonal
and longer time scales, ocean conditions provide
important sources of predictability, with research
focused on better understanding and predicting
Map of potential storm surge flooding (Source: TC RSMC
Miami, NOAA) tropical cyclone activity.

Capacity Development Looking forward

WMO coordinates training for NMHSs on all tropical WMO recognizes the need for better tropical cyclone
cyclone-related hazards, including regional workshops forecasts as well as the need to work with partners
on storm surge and wave forecasting. Tropical to better prepare people for risks. Hundreds of
cyclone forecasters also have their own website millions of people around the world are affected and
(severeweather.wmo.int/TCFW/), and the Global Guide damages amount to billions of dollars annually. WMO
to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (WMO-No. 1194), is accelerating research-to-operations, monitoring
which contains a collection of state-of-art sciences of the ocean and the sharing of data to deliver
and technologies and best practices for their use. impact-based forecasting and warning services for
tropical cyclones. Better knowledge and tools, and
the inclusion of partners in the social sciences will
WMO Research Efforts help to effectively translate early warnings into early
actions that save lives.
WMO research efforts include the WMO Tropical
Services

Meteorological Research Working Group’s series

of International Workshops on Tropical Cyclones
every four years. This brings together forecasters and
Multi-Hazard Early Warning System
98

(MHEWS), a tool for Effective Ocean

Prediction and Services
By Agnes Kijazi1, Wilbert Muruke2, Mohamed Ngwali3, Wilberforce Kikwasi4, Mathew Ndaki5

With its long and open coastline of over 30 000 km, The Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) has a
Africa is vulnerable to natural hazards originating Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) with
from the Atlantic Ocean to the west, Mediterranean Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) that activate
Sea to the North, and Red Sea and Indian Ocean to when a weather warning is issued on land or at sea.
the East. The risks include tropical cyclones, coastal The SOP takes onboard all key actors in the National
inundation (including from tsunamis), strong winds Early Warning System (NEWS), composed of the
and rising sea levels due to climate change. The Disaster Management Office (DMO) in the Prime
United Republic of Tanzania is on the South Western Minister’s Office as the overall coordinator of disaster
Indian Ocean (SWIO), a region vulnerable to tropical management in the country, TMA, the Media and the
cyclones.1 23 4 5 stakeholder communities – that is ocean users when
the hazard is at sea or threatens coasts.

TMA is responsible for issuing weather-related

warnings for both land and sea. The information is
passed on to all stakeholders through various channels,
includingTMA website, newspapers, television, radios
and social media. When a hazard leads to a disaster,
TMA communicates the warning to DMO. DMO
decisions depend on MHEWS information provided.
The aim is to facilitate effective communication and
appropriate action in timely manner.

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth

The development of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth north

of Madagascar was tracked by satellite and TMA’s
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system from
20 April 2019. On 21 April, TMA issued early warning
information to the public on the development of the
depression. TMA received updated alerts from the
Tropical Cyclone Regional Specialized Meteorological
Centre (TC RSMC) Meteo-France La-Reunion. When
the increasingly strong cyclone started moving
Tropical Cyclone Kenneth approaching Mozambique at toward the coast of Tanzania and Mozambique,
peak intensity on 25 April 2019 (NASA) TMA communicated the MHEWS information to the
National Disaster Management Office (DMO). On 25
April, Kenneth reached its peak with a central pressure
1 Director General of the Tanzania Meteorological Authority of 934 hectopascals (hPa) and wind speed of 230
(TMA); Permanent Representative of the United Republic
Tanzania to the WMO and the Third Vice-President of WMO kilometres per hour (km/h) with gusts to 305 km/h
2 Manager, International Cooperation, TMA – the most severe and damaging tropical cyclone ever
3 Director, TMA-Zanzibar Office to hit the region. On that day, it made landfall over
4 Head of Marine Meteorological Services Office, TMA north east of Mozambique, influencing the weather
5 Meteorologist, TMA
WMO BULLETIN 99

Area of tropical cyclone formation over SWIO in the southern hemisphere (adopted from Australian Bureau of
Meteorology (bmo.gov.au/climate/map).

systems in Tanzania, especially over the southern response to the tropical cyclone. Everyone played
coast. The cyclone dissipated thereafter. their role, including the Media who updated the
public continuously with information from TMA.
Thus, communities were evacuated to safe places
in a timely manner.

Dr. Agnes Kijazi, Director General,Tanzania Meteorological

Authority (TMA) and Third Vice-President of WMO, with
Col. Jimmy Matamwe, Director, Disaster Management
Office (DMO)-Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), and Mr
Bashiri Taratibu, Assistant Director, DMO, jointly issuing
a warning cancellation to the public on 26th April 2019. Severe Tropical Cyclone Kenneth made a landfall over
Northeastern parts of Mozambique.

As the cyclone intensified and approached the coast,

TMA continued to provide warnings, conducting Challenges
frequent press conferences as per the SOPs, while
the DMO coordinated disaster responders, providing Ocean prediction and services in Africa, and specifically
them with evacuation sites and other facilities. On 26 in Tanzania, face several major challenges:
April, the Director General of TMA and the Director of
National Disaster Management Office jointly issued • The inadequacy of the observation and monitoring
a cancellation of the state of emergency through a infrastructure (e.g. automatic weather stations
press conference. along the cost and water buoys)
Services

MHEWS and SOPs were effective in predicting, • Limited human capacity in marine observation
monitoring, communicating and coordinating the and forecasting
100 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

• Limited computational capacity and technology in

data processing, packaging and dissemination; and

• Limited awareness by the communities.

Conclusion and recommendations

The MHEWS SOPs are an effective tool in connecting

ocean prediction and services to users and emergency
responders. They are most effective, however, when
they are customized to individual stakeholders, to
ensure each to take the appropriate actions when at
risk. Activities have to be developed for individual
SOPs for diverse stakeholders.

Institutional capacity building is of paramount

important in African NMHSs to ensure effective early
warning for marine hazards, which scientists predict
will intensify due to climate change.

International cooperation needs to be enhanced to

ensure sustainability and support the capacity of
NMHSs to deliver multi-hazard early warning for
effective management of marine related disasters
ranging from cyclone induced coastal inundation
to tsunamis.
Oceanic Science for Services in
WMO BULLETIN 101

Small-Island Developing States

By Arlene Laing1, Ofa Fa’anunu2 and David Farrell3

The United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for • capacity development and training in marine
Sustainable Development, 2021–2030, promises meteorology and service delivery
benefits to all nations but especially to the Small-Island
Developing States (SIDS) of the Caribbean and the • regional cooperation among meteorological,
Pacific, whose development is tied to their ability to oceanic and coastal environmental agencies
use their marine resources. The extent and resources
of the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) of SIDS are • understanding of the needs of users whose
significantly larger than their corresponding land areas. livelihoods depend on a safe, clean, well-predicted
However, the full benefits of those resources are not and sustainable ocean.
being used by SIDS due to inadequate knowledge of
the characteristics of the marine environment, the
opportunities and the hazards. Paramount among
the latter are severe tropical cyclones, sea-level rise,
coastal inundation and erosion and, in recent years, the
influx of Sargassum in the Caribbean. All of those are
exacerbated by climate variability and climate change
and threaten the vulnerable economies of SIDS.1 2 3

Caribbean

The tourism sector is the primary economic driver of

most Caribbean SIDS. The “science for sustainable
development” value chain must bring tangible benefits West Coast of Trinidad and Gulf of Paria, with oil and gas
to the marine, and related economic sectors such as industry vessels. (Source: Arlene Laing, 22 August 2018)
tourism, to benefit the Caribbean.
In addition to search and rescue operations, the services
Successful harnessing of science to deliver value of the National Meteorological and Hydrological
requires: Services (NMHSs) are also valuable to the oil and
gas industry. This was illustrated recently by the near
• accurate and timely observations failure of a vessel containing approximately 1.3 million
barrels of crude oil in the Gulf of Paria (the body of water
• research that improves understanding, prediction between Trinidad and Venezuela, Image 1). The fate of
capability and aids in the development of better the cargo and its local and regional socio-economic
services impacts were echoed at all levels of Government within
the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and highlighted
the vital role of marine forecasting services.

1 Permanent Representative of the British CaribbeanTerritories

to the WMO To achieve the goal of a safe, clean and well-predicted
2 President of WMO Regional Association V (South-West ocean, the NMHSs of Caribbean States and Territories
Pacific), Permanent Representative of Tonga to the WMO. are being supported by the Caribbean Meteorological
Services

Director of Meteorology and Coast Watch Services, Tonga

Organization (CMO), which has been working with the
Meteorological Services
3 Hydrological Adviser of the British Caribbean Territories
WMO to improve marine meteorology competencies
to the WMO and service delivery. The Caribbean Institute for
102 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) and has taken CIMH was a key participant in the 2020 EUREC4A field
the lead on training and technical support and has campaign, which supported extensive marine data
embarked on the establishment of a Marine Forecast collection east of the Caribbean island chain extending
Support Centre that will support: from Barbados to Suriname.The campaign is expected
to lead to major advances in understanding of the
• capacity development to deliver improved regional marine environment. The Marine Forecast Support
and national marine forecasts Centre will integrate CIMH’s regional Wavewatch-3 daily
significant wave-heights 7-day forecasts, and its evolving
• regional and international partnerships to support regional Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)
marine observations and science to better manage and observation platform. In 2019, with sponsorship
marine resources and marine early warning of the Cooperation of African, Caribbean and Pacific
systems (ACP) States and the European Union (EU), via the
Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), CIMH delivered a
• regional and international scientific collaborations 3-week regional marine forecasting workshop to over
to advance marine science research and research 20 persons: members of its staff, of NMHSs and other
capacity across the region. stakeholders. Since the workshop, several NMHSs
have begun the process of implementing their own
forecast models to improve their marine forecasts.

In terms of marine service delivery, the CMO

Headquarters Unit has been coordinating with the
Regional Maritime Adviser of the IMO, the Association
of Caribbean States and other regional stakeholders
to connect with maritime customers in the Caribbean
and to better understand their needs. Those activities
have aided the WMO in the development of training for
user-oriented services. The strengthening of NMHSs
in SIDS, through improvements along the science-to-
services value chain, enhances decision-making and
stakeholder performance in a variety of maritime and
coastal sectors.

Example from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological

Service of Search and Rescue Analysis System (SARAS),
which predicted drift scenarios (upper) to identify the The marine services value chain for SIDS.
search region for a fishing vessel with a lone fisherman
during 4-7 September 2016. The prediction model was
based on hindcast numerical weather prediction models, Pacific Islands
archived satellite imagery, Doppler radar data, and revised
using reanalysis ocean currents every 12 hours; (lower)
the successful scenario illustrating the location found. Often referred to as Large Ocean Island States, the 22
(Source: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services) Pacific SIDS are scattered across the planet’s largest
WMO BULLETIN 103

ocean with vast ocean EEZs. They are reliant on the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Similar
marine economy for survival. Ocean information is coastal inundation forecasting projects are underway
the basis of sound decision-making for sectors such in Kiribati and Tuvalu, funded by the Climate Risk and
as fisheries, tourism, transportation and basic safety Early Warning Systems (CREWS) initiative. The WMO
services at the coast and at sea. This is especially Regional Association V (South-West Pacific) Tropical
true during weather and climate extremes that are Cyclone Committee has also established a dedicated
often ocean related, for example coastal hazards, group of experts to support the development of coastal
high waves, storms including tropical cyclones and inundation and storm surge early warnings across
rising sea levels. Climate change has exacerbated the region.
these threats and brought the additional threat of
sea level rise. Furthermore, the threat of geologically
induced hazards such as tsunamis pose a great risk.
Meteorological services are key to the provision of
early warnings at sea and along the coast for these
island economies. This importance was recognized
in 2015 by the Pacific Meteorological Council (PMC)
with the establishment of a dedicated Pacific Islands
Marine and Ocean Services Panel (PIMOS). The Panel
offers technical advice to the PMC on marine and
ocean services matters for the region.

Small Outboard Motor (OBM) boats that are used daily

to cross between islands in Tonga. The small OBM boats
are a common mode of transport throughout the Pacific.
(Source: O. Fa'anunu, 2019)

In parallel, the Pacific NMHSs are actively participating

in international discussions such as the Global Multi-
Hazard Early Warning Conference (MHEWS), jointly
organized by the WMO along with other international
partners such as United Nations Office for Disaster
Storm Surge Model product of Tropical Cyclone Yasa Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and UNESCO. Related to this,
in December 2020 that allowed the Fiji Meteorological the Pacific Islands are involved in the International
Service to provide warnings to coastal communities of Network on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems
the Fiji Islands. (Source: Fiji Meteorological Service)
(IN-MHEWS) and the development of the Global Multi-
Hazard Alert System (GMAS). Efforts are underway to
Following recommendations from the 5th Pacific strengthen both coastal MHEWS and impact-based
Meteorological Council (PMC-5) in Samoa in 2019, forecasting in the Pacific Islands.
innovative tools are being deployed to strengthen
high resolution ocean forecasts (wave inundation, Climate variability and tidal change impacts are keenly
for example) across the Pacific. These tools will felt in the Pacific Islands.To help the islands prepare for,
complement systems currently operating or in adapt to and mitigate impacts from these challenges,
development in Fiji, Kiribati, Republic of the Marshall the Australian Bureau of Meteorology established the
Islands, Samoa, Tonga and Tuvalu. In addition, the Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific
WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration (COSPac). Consultation across the islands is helping
Services

Sub-Project in Fiji, which was completed in 2019, the Program to build tools that can forecast and report
successfully implemented a Coastal Inundation System on climate, tides and the ocean. Examples include
at the Fiji Meteorological Service with funding from monthly ocean outlooks and a variety of forecast
104 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

and information on sea surface temperature, sea NMHSs. It will also support the implementation of
level, chlorophyll mapping, waves, king tides and marine weather competency training.
coral bleaching alerts to improve the understanding
of impacts in coastal zone fisheries, businesses and Tsunami early warning is also of critical importance in
communities. Seven NMHS in the region are now the Pacific Islands, where many of the meteorological
delivering these services and an eighth will join them services work closely with National Disaster
by the end of 2021.The COSPac season climate outlooks Management Agencies to coordinate early warnings. A
are useful to communities likely to be impacted by project funded by the Japanese Government through
climate variability events such as the El Niño Southern JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency) is
Oscillation (ENSO). COSPac is also supporting the setting-up a Nationwide Early Warning System for
long term and sustained monitoring of tides, which is Tsunami in Tonga, installing 88 tsunami sirens and
helping to build a long-term record of sea level data over 500 community radios. The Pacific Resilience
across the islands. Program, funded by the World Bank, is upgrading the
Tonga Maritime Radio for the same purpose.

Regional efforts in marine meteorology and

oceanography are assisted by the Secretariat of the
Pacific Community (SPC) and the Secretariat of the
Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP).
They play an active role in developing oceanographic
capacity in NMHSs and supporting the NMHSs to
coordinate better with the marine sector, including
the supervision of a PhD student since 2019. SPC is on
the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) Steering
Committee, and part of the Ocean Observations
Coordination Group, jointly coordinated by WMO
The Pacific Ocean Portal developed under the COSPPac and the IOC.
project to support the NMHSs to develop ocean products
for their sectors. The NMHSs of the Pacific Islands region are excited
to get involved the UN Decade of Ocean Science
To further build resilience and strengthen early warning for Sustainable Development and to seize the
systems, a coordinated regional effort is in progress opportunities it offers to strengthen collaboration
in the Pacific to create a wave buoy network for with other institutions and partners across the region.
early warning and inundation detection that will The NMHSs will benefit from the efforts to coordinate
capitalize on historical regional cooperation between the identification of gaps on ocean data and science
countries. State-of-the-art baseline data have been that are paramount for ocean, weather and climate
and are being collected through a series of projects services.
and several studies that will contribute to increased
ocean hazard-related risk knowledge are underway.

The WMO-IOC Data Buoy Cooperation Panel (DBCP)

is planning a next-phase Pacific Islands Ocean Data
Access and Applications Workshop in 2021. The WMO
Marine Services Course, currently planned for 2020-
2021, will complement these capacity development
efforts, enabling NMHSs to self-assess their capacity
and to share their experiences with other NMHSs.
The results will be used to tailor a specific training
to address the needs identified by the participating
Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems:
The Coastal Inundation Forecasting
WMO BULLETIN 105

Initiative
By Val Swail, Emeritus Associate, Environment and Climate Change Canada

The Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration It is very rare that the required accuracy of bathymetry
Project (CIFDP) and its subprojects aimed to and topography information is available, particularly in
improve safety from flooding in communities at SIDS and Least Developed Counties (LDCs). Necessary
risk, a fundamental priority of WMO. CIFDP was meteorological and oceanographic information –
unique in facilitating the design and development waves, water level, river levels and flow – is also usually
of a comprehensive alert and warning system for inadequate. As part of the Fiji project, improvements
coastal flooding caused by multiple sources. were made through detailed surveys to the bathymetry
and topography information on the coral coast, vital for
Four separate and disparate CIFDP subprojects were mapping coastal inundation (note that in the Caribbean
undertaken, in Bangladesh, the Caribbean, Fiji and subproject topography enhancements were achieved
Indonesia (see WMO Bulletin 68(2), Early Warnings through the use of the TANDEM-X satellite, which
for Coastal Inundations). Each had a different set of provided data equivalent to the gold-standard LiDAR
forcing mechanisms which, coupled with the varying surveys). Wave measurements from buoys deployed
degrees of capacity and emergency management on the Coral Coast as part of the CIFDP provide early
structure within the country, made them unique. Their warning of damaging swells coming from the south;
successful implementation showed that integrated they also provide vital information for the validation of
coastal inundation forecasting and warnings can be the forecast systems. New water level measurements
improved and coordinated by National Meteorological also provide valuable information for coastal flooding.
and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). In the following Unfortunately, these buoys are often subject to
paragraphs, we describe the general considerations damage, either by accident or through vandalism. A
required to undertake a coastal inundation forecasting new WMO video (available here) was developed to
(CIF) early warning system, with some illustrative raise awareness in local communities by highlighting
examples from the most recently completed project, the value of this critical ocean infrastructure for their
Fiji1. own safety and livelihoods.

What to predict? Fiji experiences tropical storms that Forecasts and warnings are not useful unless they
bring heavy rains and river flooding along with large reach the “last mile”, i.e. the general population. In
storm surges and high seas and damaging inundation addition to radio and TV broadcasts, the Internet and
due to long period swells from extratropical storms social media are used extensively in Fiji for warning
in the southern ocean off New Zealand. When other dissemination. Social media were widely used for
factors – such as the tide and sea surface height warnings about TC Harold; the total reach of Facebook
anomaly and a fringing reef along the south coast – are peaked to 172 864 according to Fiji Meteorological
taken into account, the forecast problems for a coastal Service (FMS). Twitter had 6 404 impressions, and
inundation system in Fiji are very complex, requiring Instagram warnings were also issued.
innovative modelling approaches and impact-based
products. This is further complicated by the need for Capacity development for FMS operations covered all
timely forecasts and warnings, usually with more the components of the forecast system and life cycle
limited capacities associated with Small Islands management of the new measurement systems for
Developing States (SIDS). waves, ocean and river levels. Institutional end users,
such as the disaster managers, were also trained to
use the new forecast products. In addition, public
Services

awareness of coastal inundation was addressed by

1 This project was made possible through donor funds from
the development of a WMO video (available here) on
the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)
106 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

the dangers and actions to be taken when fleeing or Tsunamis

if caught in rising waters.
Tsunamis are dangerous coastal threats. While
infrequent, they have the potential to produce
catastrophic impacts on coastal communities in
a matter of minutes to hours. Tsunamis are not
under the WMO mandate, however, many WMO
Members have made their NMHSs responsible for
issuing tsunami warnings. Thus, in this area, WMO
collaborates closely with IOC, which leads a focused
global tsunami warning and mitigation system. The
WMO provides dissemination of tsunami warnings
via the Global Telecommunications System (GTS) as
well as transmission of data from some tide gauges
via meteorological satellites.

While tsunamis have a different forcing mechanism

and different predictive models, there are common
requirements that are the same as for coastal
inundation forecasting, including the need for better
bathymetry and topography and for timely forecast
dissemination 24/7 in a matter of minutes to hours.
Many countries with vulnerable coastal communities
also have operational tsunami warning systems.
However, there are opportunities to leverage the
Coral Coast, Fiji is one of the well-known tourist areas,
successful international tsunami efforts in collaboration
where beachside resorts are located. The tourist beaches
are prone to coastal inundation from long range swell with the CIF-EWS; especially for community warning
from the southern ocean – the top image shows the event and the “last mile”.
in 2011, and the second image shows the same umbrella,
damaged after the event (Source: SPC)

In April 2020, Severe Tropical Cyclone Harold carved

a path through several Pacific Islands. As the storm
approached, FMS issued its first ever wave and
storm surge warnings during a cyclone, enabled by
a new coastal inundation forecasting system of the
CIFDP Fiji-subproject. Mr. Misaeli Funaki, Director of
the FMS, reported that “the new coastal inundation
forecasting system enabled the accurate recording
of wave and storm surge magnitude, and sound
numerical model guidance for storm surge and waves.
This led to timely forecasts and formed the basis
of successful evacuation warnings to vulnerable
communities during Tropical Cyclone Harold (more
than 2 000 people were evacuated), which minimized
fatalities from such a devastating and life-threatening
storm.”The Fijian National Disaster Management Office
estimated that some 3 400 homes were impacted,
and that damage was above FJ$ 10 million.
South Atlantic Ocean Prediction
WMO BULLETIN 107

and Services
By Daniel Peixoto de Carvalho, Commander, Brazilian Navy

Marine weather warnings and forecasts are life- declared disaster conditions and damages amounted
saving tools for mariners and populations that live to some US$ 40 million (Carvalho 2018). In 2011, SMM
by the sea. This is especially true in Brazil, where issued an official list of cyclone names. It has since
half the population lives within 200 kilometres (km) named ten subtropical cyclones (Subtropical Storm
of coastline, and one-third of the population dwell in Oquira was the most recent in December 2020) and
coastal cities. In addition, the Santos and Campos' one tropical storm, Iba, in March 2019.
oceanic basins in Southeast Brazil hold 92% of the
second largest national oil reserve in South America.
There are 54 oil rigs and Floating Production, Storage
and Offloading units, which are ship-like oil rigs in
the basins. Thus, the Atlantic Ocean plays a vital role
in daily lives and the economy of Brazil. The Serviço
Meteorológico Marinho (SMM, Marine Meteorological
Service) must be weather-ready at all times.

SMM issues official weather warnings and forecasts

for the coast and high seas over a maritime area of
12,047,648 km2. If it were a country, it would be the
second largest in the world. Met-ocean observations
are critical to forecasting over such an extensive
area of responsibility. Weather analysis starts by
comparing issued forecasts to the current weather.
Numerical weather prediction models assimilate such
observations to bring nature into their calculations.
Therefore, forecasters cannot calibrate results in Brazilian Navy Research Vessel Vital de Oliveira deployed
poorly observed areas. two met-ocean buoys at Santos oil basin in early December
2020 (Credit: ENS Queiroz Machado)
On the east coast of South America, low-pressure
centres develop from Northern Argentina to Southern However, operational forecasting is only a part of the
Brazil very frequently and are associated with cold story. Met-ocean observations are also fundamental to
fronts that push extratropical cyclones offshore. support scientific research. Brazilian researchers run
However, the greater danger comes with less frequent such projects with support from universities and the
tropical and subtropical storms. They develop once or private sector and also contribute to the Global Ocean
twice a year on average and can take the population Observing Systems (GOOS).The Executive Committee
by surprise. Advance warning for such events come (EC) of GOOS-Brazil convenes representatives from
from SMM weather buoys and voluntary observing different public administration areas – transportation,
ships that provide in situ marine observations to agriculture, fisheries, environment, science, technology
complement satellite data. and defense – and operates 10 Navy research vessels.
Brazil offers a unique model of integration as the
On 27 March 2004, tropical cyclone Catarina developed Centro de Hidrografia da Marinha (CHM) (Navy
off the coast of Santa Catarina state in Southern Hydrographic Centre) manages EC GOOS-Brazil and
Services

Brazil and made landfall between Passo de Torres and SMM. CHM also issues official nautical charts and
Balneário Gaivota. It was Brazil’s first-ever tropical navigational warnings. This integration at the national
cyclone. It claimed the lives of 11 people, 20 cities level creates opportunities at all levels as there is
108 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

coordination on understanding stakeholder needs and

knowledge of all available resources and assets, from
ships, ship schedules, available seats, instruments
and equipment to professional specializations. This
global view is paramount to identify solutions and
to develop win-win relationships between diverse
stakeholders.

The integration of ocean services under CHM suggests

a way forward for regional cooperation. Met-ocean
observations in a single country are insufficient for
operational forecasting and scientific research.Two key
actions are needed to improve regional collaboration:

1. All Members should be aware of all ongoing

national projects to collect data. A good start
would be to update websites with information on
active projects, detailing the standard procedures
for collect data and providing regular, reliable
outputs.

2. A unique secured Internet address could display

the specifications of all available ships and
their schedules, instruments, equipment, seat
availability and the ship routes. A designated
national authority could be empowered to gather
and share this information.

The underlying goal is for Members to better know each

other. Countries are usually aware of national capabilities
and challenges but often do not look to their neighbors
to complement them and fill the gaps. Coordination at
the regional level would undoubtedly achieve this.The
timing is right as the world looks forward to the UN
Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development
having started in January 2021.

References

Zacharias, D. C., and Fornaro, A. (2020), Brazilian

offshore oil exploration areas: an overview of
hydrocarbon pollution (Accessed: 23 December 2020)

Carvalho, D. P. de (2018), Meteorologia Antártica e a

Segurança do Brasil. Revista Marítima Brasileira, 138,
pp. 133-145 (Accessed: 23 December 2020)
Oil spill management and salvage
WMO BULLETIN 109

in the Indian Ocean

By Pierre Daniel, Meteo-France and Renganaden Virasami, Mauritius Meteorological Service

Accidents happen. And once they happen, time is of the MOTHY drift model of Météo-France, showed that
essence when it comes to rescuing victims, salvaging a leak could reach the Mauritian coast very quickly,
damaged goods and property and the subsequent however, the risks for Reunion Island seemed limited.
clean-up. This is especially true at sea where there MMS continued to report twice daily to relevant
can be treacherous and changing conditions. Marine authorities with 3-day forecasts for sea-state, wind
weather forecasts and predictions, crucial for such and wave. Wave observations from the waverider
efforts, can involve a range of national, regional and buoy off Blue Bay (a couple of km from the wreck)
international entities. That was the case on 25 July were closely monitored and regularly communicated
2020, when the bulk carrier Wakashio ran aground to all parties concerned.
on a coral reef near the Pointe d'Esny, in southern
Mauritius in the Indian Ocean. Then, a few days after the shipwreck, the Mauritian
Coast Guard detected small oil leaks in the lagoon and
deployed preventative anti-pollution booms around
the Wakashio. Despite considerable resources, it was
impossible to refloat the vessel.

The Wakashio wreck at the south of Mauritius, 21 August

2020 (©Cedre)

The vessel, with some 20 crew, contained 3 800 tons

of fuel oil (VLSFO), 200 tons of marine diesel and 90 A mangrove impacted by pollution at Anse Fauvelle,
tons of lubricant, but no leaks were observed when the Mauritius (©Cedre)
wreck occurred. Nonetheless, danger was imminent
and an emergency response protocol was put into
action. Meteorological service played a critical role. The critical role of marine weather and
ocean forecasting
The Mauritius Meteorological Service (MMS),
within minutes of learning of the wreck, provided all On 6 August, the situation deteriorated: the vessel
authorities concerned with information on the state was leaking and an oil slick was observed on the sea
of the sea at the time of wreck and 3-day weather surface. MMS increased their reporting frequency
forecasts for the wreck area, which included wind to 3 times daily of 5-day forecasts of weather at sea,
and wave parameters. The Mauritian authorities wind and wave. The 5-day forecasts were based
Services

activated the national anti-pollution plan and alerted mainly on the U.S. National Oceanographic and
neighbouring countries, including France (Reunion Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Wavewatch
Island). A first oil drift calculation, made with the III and real-time observation of the wave and wind
110 Vol. 70 (1) - 2021

at sea from the MMS station at Blue Bay to develop authorities considered where to sink it. Météo-France
accurate forecasts of local sea conditions.The Director made drift forecasts for several geographical positions
of MMS provided daily marine weather briefings to to determine which locations may have a pollution
the National Crisis Committee (NCC), as well as twice risk for Reunion Island. The place of immersion was
weekly briefings to the National Crisis Management shifted northwards following this analysis.
Committee, chaired by the Prime Minister. The marine
forecasts informed all decisions taken to manage the The bow sank on the 24 August. The stern is still on
oil spill and manage the wreck. site. No pollution has affected the coasts of Reunion
Island. The pollution that has affected Mauritius is
estimated at between 600 and 1 000 tons. The MMS
continue their daily 5-day outlooks for the NCC and
NCMC. All weather and sea data for the event are
being archived for further analysis and studies.

First storage location for recovered waste which was

stored in barrels (©Cedre)

The Commander of the Southern Indian Ocean

Maritime Zone requested the assistance of Météo-
France and alerted the Drift Committee, led by Cedre1,
including experts from Météo-France, the Service
Hydrographique et Océanographique de la Marine
(Shom) and the Institut français de recherche pour
l'exploitation de la mer (Ifremer)2. Drift predictions
of the extent of the pollution in the lagoon were
made by Météo-France to estimate the risks to the
coasts of Reunion Island. Outside the lagoon, ocean
current forecasts from the Copernicus Marine Service
were used.

Most of the fuel oil was pumped out of the wreck on

12 August and the clean-up of the coasts began with
many local volunteers.

On the 15 August, the Wakashio broke in two during

a towing attempt. The drift forecasts then included
drifts of ship debris. On the 17th, the front part of
the vessel was towed out to sea, while the Mauritian

1 Centre of Documentation, Research, and Experimentation

on Accidental Water Pollution
2 French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea (French:
Institut français de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer)
 This special Ocean themed WMO Bulletin is officially registered
as a contribution to the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science
for Sustainable Development.

WMO wishes to acknowledge the following individuals for their assistance with the editing of this special "Ocean"
themed Bulletin:

• Ian Lisk, President, WMO Commission for Weather, Climate, Water and Related Environmental Services & Applications,
and Head, Hazard Partnerships, The Met Office (UK)

• Thomas J. Cuff, Chair, WMO Standing Committee on Marine Meteorology and Oceanographic Service, and Director,
Office of Observations, National Weather Service, U.S, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

• Val Swail, Emeritus Associate, Environment and Climate Change Canada

• Jonathan Lynn, Head, Communications and Media, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 World Meteorological Organization
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Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 81 11 - Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 81 81
Email: wmo@wmo.int - Website: www.public.wmo.int

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