MAT 356 Final Exam Vaughn College of Aeronautics

Dr. A. Djemil (Sec. 30)

Name:______________________ Date: _________

Solve all problems and show all work with explanation. (Total points 100)

Problem 1: (10 points)

A tower controller studied the number of flights with delayed landing over 11 days. She observed
11 12 21 22 10 7 13 18 17 20 19 flights.
a) Draw a dot diagram (2 pts)

b) Find the median (2 pts)

[7,10,11,12,13,17,18,19,20,21,22]
Median = 17

c) Find the mean (2 pts)

7+10+11+12+13+17 +18+19+20+21+22
Mean = = 15.45
11

d) Find the variance and the standard deviation (4 pts) – Show all work and steps.
∑ ( X−µ )2 ∑ ( x −15.45 )2
σ= ) = σ= = 23.16
N N

2
Standard Deviation = ∑ x− x́ = 5.047
(
N −1
)
√

Probability and Statistics Fall 2018 Page 1 Dr. Djemil - Vaughn College of Aero
Problem 2: (4 pts)

Find the mean and the variance of the binomial distribution with n = 6 and p = 0.65.

Mean = (6) (0.65) = 3.9

S2 = (6) (0.65) (0.35) = 1.365

Problem 3: (8 pts) If events A and B are independent and P(A) = 0.45 and P(B) = 0.30, find:

a) P(A∩B); (0.45) (0.30) = 0.135

b) P(A|B); (0.135/0.30) = 0.45
c) P(A∪B); (0.45 + 0.30) – (0.135) = 0.615
d) P(|) A ( A|B ) ( A ∩ B); (1 - 0.45) (1 - 0.30) = 0.385

Problem 4: (4 pts)

The number of adults living in homes on a randomly selected city block is described by the
following probability distribution.

Number of adults, x 1 2 3 4 or more

Probability, P(x) 0.25 0.50 0.15 ?

What is the probability that 4 or more adults reside at a randomly selected home?

P (X >= 4) = 1 - (0.25 + 0.50 + 0.15) = 0.10

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Problem 4: (10 pts)

In a certain school, 6% of all students get a probation due to diverse reasons. Use the Poisson
approximation to the binomial distribution to determine the probabilities that among 80 students
(randomly chosen in this given school):

a) 4 will get at least one probation in any given year; (3 pts)

λ=80 ⋅ 0.06 = 4.8

ⅇ−4.8 ⋅4.8 4
P ( x=4 )= = 0.1820
4!

b) At least 3 will get at least one probation in any given year; (3 pts)
2
ⅇ−u ⋅ 8 4.8x
P ( x ≥ 3 )=1−P ( x <3 ) = 1−P ( x ≤ 2 )=¿ 1−∑
x=0 x!

1−0.1425=0.8575

c) Anywhere from 3 to 6, inclusive will get at least one probation in any given year. (4 pts)
6
ⅇ−4.8 4.8 x
P ( 3≤ x ≤ 6 )=∑ =¿ 0.1517+ 0.1820+ 0.1747+0.1398
x=3 x!

= 0.6482

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Problem 5: (8 pts)

A car dealer has 12 cars in the showroom. Among those cars, 9 are Mercedes, and the
remaining are Audi. If a person visiting the showroom selects randomly 4 cars to test drive, what
probability that 3 of them will be the Mercedes cars?

12 C 4=495

^
A=9 C3 ⋅ 3 C1=¿ 252

252
=0.50 9
495

Probability and Statistics Fall 2018 Page 5 Dr. Djemil - Vaughn College of Aero
Problem 6: (10 pts)

You are asked to estimate the average weight of an adult male passenger for a study to maximize
the number of seats in a certain airplane. You collect random weights of 1000 men passengers
from a population of 100,000. You find that the average man in the sample weighs 180 pounds,
and the standard deviation of the sample is 30 pounds. What is the 95% confidence interval?

σ 30
x́ ± z =180 ±1.96 ⋅
√n √ 1000
= 178.14,181.86

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Problem 7 (10 pts)
The time required to assemble a piece of machinery is a random variable having approximately
a normal distribution with µ = 12.9 minutes and σ = 2.0 minutes. What are the probabilities that
the assembly of a piece of machinery of this kind will take

a) At least 11.5 minutes; (5 pts)

( 11.5−12.9 )
P ( x>11.5 )=P z > ( 2 )
P ( z>−0.7 )=1−P ( z ←0.7 )
= 1 – 0.2420
= 0.7580
b) Anywhere from 11.0 to 14.8 minutes? (5 pts)
11−12.9 14.8−12.9
P ( 11< x <14.8 )=P
2 (
<z<
2 )
P (−0.95< z <0.95 )
P ( z< 0.95 )−P ( z←0.95 )
= 0.8289 – 0.1711
= 0.6578

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Problem 8: (10 pts)

In certain city, growth rate of the population is estimated by the density functions below:
x for 0 < x < 1
f(x) = 2 – x for 1 ≤ x ≤ 2
0 elsewhere

Find the probability that a random variable having this probability density will take on a value
a) Between 0.2 and 0.8
P ( 0.2< x< 0.8 )
0.8 0.8 0.8
x2
∫
0.2
f ( x ) ⅆx=∫
0.2
xⅆx =
2 ( )| 0.2
2 2
0.8 −0.2
= =0.3
2
b) Between 0.6 and 1.2
P ( 0.6< x <1.2 )
1.2 1 1.2

∫ f ( x ) ⅆx=∫ f ( x ) ⅆx + ∫ f ( x ) ⅆx
0.6 0.6 1
1.2
2 1 2
x
2 | (
0.6
+ 2 x−
x
2 )|
1
2 2
1 −0.6 1.22 12
+ 2 ( 1.2 ) − −2 ( 1 )+
2 2 2
= 0.32 + 2.4 – 0.72 – 2 + 0.5
=0.5

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Probability and Statistics Fall 2018 Page 9 Dr. Djemil - Vaughn College of Aero
Problem 9: (8 pts) (5.20)

If a random variable has a standard normal distribution, find the probability that it will take on
a value
a) Between 0 and 2.3
P ( 0 ≤ z ≤2.3 ) = P ( z ≤ 2.3 )−P ( z ≤ 0 )
= 0.9893 – 0.5
= 0.4893
b) Between 1.22 and 2.43
P ( 1.22≤ z ≤ 2.43 ) = P ( z ≤ 2.43 )−P ( z< 1.22 )
= 0.99245 – 0.8887
= 0.1037
c) Between -1.45 and -0.45
P (−1.45≤ z ≤−0.45 )=P ( z ≤ 0.45 ) −P ( z ≤−1.45 )
=0.3264 – 0.735
= 0.2529
d) Between -1.70 and 1.35
P (−1.7 ≤ z ≤1.35 ) =P ( z ≤1.35 )−P ( z ≤−1.71 )
= 0.9115 – 0.446
= 0.8669

Probability and Statistics Fall 2018 Page 10 Dr. Djemil - Vaughn College of Aero
Problem 10: (8 pts)

The daily number of accidental disconnects with a server follows a Poisson distribution. On five
days

25337

Accidental disconnects are observed.

a) Obtain the maximum likelihood estimate of λ. (4pts)
n
1
x́= ∑ x 1
n i=1
2+5+3+3+7 20
x́= =
5 5
¿4
b) Find the maximum likelihood estimate of the probability that 3 or more
accidental disconnects occur. (4 pts)
x́−μ 3−λ

( ( )) ( )
P ( x́>3 )=P
λ
√n
>
λ
√n
3−4

( ( ( ))
P z>
4
√5
P ( z>−0.559 )
= 0.71192

Probability and Statistics Fall 2018 Page 11 Dr. Djemil - Vaughn College of Aero
Problem 11: (10 pts)

An airplane claims that the typical flying time between two cities is 56 minutes.
a) Formulate a test of hypotheses with the intent of establishing that the population mean
flying time is different from the published time of 56 minutes. (4 pts)
H 0 :μ=56 , H 1 : μ ≠ 56
b) If the true mean is 50 minutes, what error can be made? Explain your answer in the
context of the problem. (3 pts)
A type 2 error. This happened because the null hypothesis was not rejected when
the other hypothesis was true
c) What error could be made if the true mean is 56 minutes? (3 pts)
Type 1 error. The null hypothesis is rejected although it is true.

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