Igl 20201111 Mosl Ru PG008
Igl 20201111 Mosl Ru PG008
Igl 20201111 Mosl Ru PG008
Indraprastha Gas
Estimate change CMP: INR449 TP: INR485 (+8%) Neutral
TP change
Rating change Volumes in-line; recovery to pre-COVID levels by end-3Q
IGL reported a beat on EBITDA on the back of lower other expenditure. CNG
Bloomberg IGL IN volumes were in line with est. (-21% YoY). Total volumes were marginally
Equity Shares (m) 700 higher (5%) than est., primarily led by domestic volumes.
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 314 / 4 As most of the restrictions of the COVID-19 lockdowns are being relaxed, we
52-Week Range (INR) 534 / 285 believe the company would now be able to recover CNG volumes to pre-
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 10/-48/-3 COVID levels in 3QFY21 (v/s our earlier est. of recovery in 4QFY21).
12M Avg Val (INR M) 1525 Volumes would further be aided by increasing demand for personal mobility
in the festive season and various commercial segments (restaurants and
Financials & Valuations (INR b) malls) ramping up their operating capacities.
Y/E March 2020 2021E 2022E
Thus, we revise our est. for 3Q–4QFY21 upward to 6.7–6.8mmscmd (pre-
Sales 64.9 51.3 68.6
COVID 3QFY20 levels) from ~6mmscmd estimated earlier.
EBITDA 15.2 13.1 17.1
Adj. PAT 11.4 9.0 11.9 We reiterate our belief in the company’s volume trajectory, led by growth in
Adj. EPS (INR) 16.2 12.9 17.0 NCR, higher conversion to CNG due to the BS-VI implementation, inter-city
EPS Gr. (%) 44.5 -20.8 32.4 CNG travel and contribution from newer GAs. We build-in volume growth of
BV/Sh.(INR) 72.3 82.8 96.4 14%/12% (over FY20/FY22 levels) to 7.4/8.2mmscmd for FY22/23E.
Ratios On the margin front, we have built-in EBITDA/scm of INR6.4 in FY22 (same
Net D:E -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 as FY20), and INR6/scm in FY23 as APM prices would revive from the trough.
RoE (%) 28.3 16.6 19.0
IGL may soon finalize the revised CNG commission structure for OMCs.
RoCE (%) 27.1 16.1 18.5
We value the company at 24x Sep’22E adj. EPS of INR17.1 and add value
Payout (%) 17.2 15.5 17.6
Valuation from JV to arrive at Target Price of INR485.
P/E (x) 27.6 34.8 26.3 Even if we assume EBITDA/scm of INR6.4 in FY23, EPS would jump by 9% and
P/BV (x) 6.2 5.4 4.6 TP would reach INR500, implying minimum upside. Regulatory headwinds in
EV/EBITDA (x) 19.2 22.5 17.0 terms of open access remain. Maintain Neutral.
Div. Yield (%) 0.6 0.4 0.7
EBITDA beat on lower other expenditure
FCF Yield (%) 2.5 -0.7 2.1
Total volumes were 5% higher than est. at 5.5mmscmd (-16% YoY).
Shareholding pattern (%) CNG volumes were in line with est. at 3.9mmscmd (-21% YoY).
As On Sep-20 Jun-20 Sep-19 On the other hand, PNG volumes were higher than est. at 1.6mmscmd (-
Promoter 45.0 45.0 45.0 4% YoY), with domestic volumes up 21% YoY.
DII 22.4 22.2 20.9 EBITDA/scm was at INR8 (the highest ever) due to lower other expenditure.
FII 21.3 22.3 23.8 Gross margins were lower than our est. at INR13.7/scm (v/s our est. of
Others 11.3 10.5 10.3
INR15.2; flat QoQ). Opex was lower at INR5.7/scm (v/s our est. of
FII Includes depository receipts
INR9.3; INR5.1 in 2QFY20 and INR10.4 in 1QFY21).
Margins were lower despite IGL taking CNG price hike of INR2.5/kg in
2Q to cover the impact of COVID-19 on its operations.
EBITDA came in at INR4.1b (+41% est.; +4% YoY), with PAT at INR3.1b (-19%
YoY) – tax rate at 22.9%.
For 1HFY21, EBITDA stood at INR4.9b (-35% YoY); PAT at INR3.4b (-43% YoY).
Total volumes were at 4.1mmscmd (-36% YoY), with CNG at 2.8mmscmd
(-42% YoY) and PNG at 1.3mmscmd (-17% YoY).
EBITDA/scm stood flat YoY at INR6.6 in 1HFY21 v/s INR6.5 in 1HFY20.
11 November 2020 2
Indraprastha Gas
(66)
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.4
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.9
4.9
4.5
1.6
3.9
3QFY18
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
Source: Company, MOFSL
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.1
1.6
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
5.0
5.0
4.8
6.5
6.1
6.0
5.2
6.2
5.9
5.4
5.7
5.8
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.3
6.5
6.4
6.6
3.4
8.0
2QFY18
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
11 November 2020 3
Indraprastha Gas
Story in charts
Exhibit 5: Sales growth to continue, barring COVID-19-led Exhibit 6: IGL maintains margins by passing on cost
demand impact in FY21 increases to CNG and PNG consumers
PNG (mmscm) CNG (mmscm) Realization (INR/scm)
2,237
1,948
1,738
1,602
28
1,413
1,399
1,028
1,266
28
1,125
1,072
27
26
26
25
25
25
619 741 762
581
24
479 552
356 330 342 407
23
FY16
FY14
FY15
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21E
FY22E
FY23E
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21E
FY22E
FY23E
Source: Company, MOFSL Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 7: IGL profitability (PAT in INR/scm) to normalize in Exhibit 8: EBITDA/scm to decrease in FY22-23, as APM prices
FY22–23 revive from the trough
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21E
FY22E
FY23E
FY15
FY14
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21E
FY22E
FY23E
Source: Company, MOFSL Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 9: Return ratios to stabilize <20% Exhibit 10: Stock trades at 58% premium to its LT PE average
ROE (%) ROCE (%) P/E (x) Avg (x) Max (x)
27 64.0 Min (x) +1SD -1SD
22 23 46.4
21 21 48.0
21 25 19
18 26.9
17 17 32.0
20 20 20 19 18.3
19 18 28.9
17 17 16.0
16 7.6 9.6
0.0
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21E
FY22E
FY23E
Oct-10
Apr-13
Jul-14
Oct-15
Apr-18
Jul-19
Oct-20
Jan-12
Jan-17
11 November 2020 4
Indraprastha Gas
11 November 2020 5
Indraprastha Gas
11 November 2020 6
Infosys
11 November 2020 7
Indraprastha Gas
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Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
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11 November 2020 8