Determinants of Age Structure

1. Introduction

The objective of this module is to provide insights on the factors determining age structure in
general and India in particular. It teaches the basic measures of age structure, the stages of
age structure transition.

Age structure refers to the distribution of the population in different ages. The age structure
constitutes a significant part of the population change. Its significance encompasses several
areas like society’s reproduction potential, workforce supply, development needs, mortality
pattern, migration history, etc. For these reasons, the age-sex structure has significant policy
implications. The processes of fertility, mortality, and migration, together determine not only
the current size of the population but also the distribution of age and sex. Conversely, the age
structure sets the future pace of population growth through its influence on effective fertility,
mortality, and migration. The meaning, measure, impact and dynamics of the age-sex
structure of populations have been evaluated exhaustively by Weeks (1999). The impact of
the three population processes (migration, mortality, and fertility) on age structure has also
been assessed (Russell, 1992; Kim & Shoen, 1997; Preston and Guillot, 1997). Studies on
age composition have been carried out by Blacker (2000), Lean (2000), and in charting the
progress of populations Bongaarts (2000).

There has been a contrast in the age structure and its transition in the world between the
developing countries and their developed counterparts. While the age structure transition was
bottom heavy with a large proportion of people in the younger age groups in the developing
countries due to high fertility, it was top heavy in the case of developed nations with a higher
proportion of the older population. The issues and concerns of age structure are different
both for national economic growth and for development due to its varied pattern.

The age structure of India’s population is broad-based (UN Population Prospect, 2015) and
has future implications for fertility and migration trends within the country, as well as for
socio-economic development. Therefore, any developmental planning process should
necessarily take into account the age and sex structure of a population for policy and
planning. A lesser attention has been given to the determination of the effects on age-sex
composition irrespective of its importance and the determinants of socio-economic
implications. The historical development of age structure of the population is a necessary
condition for the identification and explanation of demographic events and processes. The
most frequently used way of the interpretation of the age structure by sex and age is a
graphical presentation called age pyramid. Numerous studies have been carried out on
population age structure and other related issues.

Table 1. Age-sex distribution, median age, and dependency ratios in India.

Ages 1950 2015 2050

0-4 14.39 9.44 8.05
5-9 11.9 9.68 7.77
10-14 11.2 9.67 7.59
15-19 10.22 9.41 7.53
20-24 9. 14 9.02 7.45
25-29 8.07 8.6 7.24

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 30-34 7.16 7.95 6.93
35-39 6.24 6.96 6.52
40-44 5.47 6.18 6.64
45-49 4.38 5.42 6.5
50-54 3.79 4.75 6.15
55-59 2.64 4.03 5.64
60-64 2.26 3.27 5.03
65-69 1.28 2.21 4.12
70-74 0.96 1.53 2.97
75-79 0.54 1.01 1.97
80+ 0.36 0.84 1.91
Total 100 100 100
Median Age 21.3 26.6 33.2
Sex Ratio 105.4 107.6 105.9
TDR (%) 68.4 51.1 52.4
YDR (%) 63.1 43.9 35.7
EDR (%) 5.3 7.2 16.7

Source: Computed from United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, population
division, World Population Prospects: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

Note: TDR=Total Dependency Ratio, YDR= Young Dependency Ratio, EDR= Elderly Dependency Ratio

2. Measuring Age Structure

The age structure can be classified into sub-parts of total population for better understanding.
Several measures are developed to assess the age structure in the country are as follows:

2.1 Age distribution: The numbers of persons in successive age groups in a given
population.Mostlyreferred to as age composition in demography. A country with prolonged
high fertility, for instance, has a large proportion of children and a small proportion of aged
persons reflects different scenario than that of the age structure constituting larger old people
and fewer population in the young ages (UN Manual, 1955).

2.2 Median age: It is defined as the age that divides the entire population into two
numerically equal halves. The one section indicates to half the people belongs to younger
age while other half constituteof the remaining old people in the population. It is a single
index that summarises the age distribution of a population(Shryock and Siegel, 1976).

2.3 Dependency ratio: It showing the number of people are dependents, aged 0-14 years and
over the age of 65 years, to the total population aged 15 to 64 years. It is also referred to as
the "total dependency ratio".

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 0 − 14 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 65 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑

𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = × 100
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 15 − 64

2.4 Support ratio: Economic or Potential support ratio (PSR) is defined as the number of
people age 20–64 per one older person 65 years aged or older. It can describe the burden
placed on the working population (unemployment and children are not considered in this
measure) by the non-working aged population.

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 𝑊20−64
𝐸𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑐 𝑆𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 =
(0.9 × 𝐷0−20 + 𝐷65+ )

Where, 𝑊20−64 refers to the working age population, while 𝐷0−20 and 𝐷65+ indicates to the
young and old age economically dependent population (UN Population Prospect, 2015).

2.5 Population pyramid: It is well known that the population pyramids show the age-sex
structure of a population also known as population pyramids. It is potentially very
informative about the history of a population and its prospects. Age-sex pyramids graphically
illustrate long-term trends in birth and death rates, and migration but also reflect shorter-term
baby-booms, wars, and epidemics. Thestandard terminologies used to describe age-sex
structures of populations are 'young', 'old', and ‘stationary’. The figure here confers the three
most prominent types of the population pyramid, with descriptions of the features of each. A
population pyramid demonstrates the age and sex structure of a country's population and
providesan insight into the policies related to political, social, economic front in a country.
There are three basic type of pyramids available in the demography that relates well to the
ongoing demographic transition.

2.5.1 Young and growing: Juvenile populations have a standard 'pyramid' shape, with a
broad field showing high proportions of children. It indicates a population is undergoing
rapid growth.

Fig 1. Patterns of population pyramid

Source: Computed from United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, population
division, World Population Prospects:2006 Revision. https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

2.5.2 Old and declining: A top-massive population pyramid with higher proportions of older
age groups indicates a declining population. Which may result from a phase of the extended
period of below replacement fertility, besides low death rates (The slow Growth: United
States age-sex pyramid in Figure 1 nearly corresponds to this)(World Population Prospect,
2006).

2.5.3 Stationary: It indicates the proportion of the population which is neither growing nor
sinking. There is auniform distribution of the population in each age group, apart from at the

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oldest ages (due to mortality). The population pyramid (Negative Growth: Germany in Figure
1) is just an approximation of what a stationary population would seem similar. The small
fluctuations in Germany’s age-sex pyramid at age groups 40-59 show that this is nota
stationary population (World Population Prospect, 2006).

3. Stages of Age Structure Transition

The number of population by age and sex are among the most fundamental demographic
characteristics of human populations as well as of the population statistics. Population
classified by the cohort of age group by sex structure play asignificant role in all aspects of
the economy, society and even, family. There are three types of age structures one can
broadly observe across countries. These are:

Type I: Mortality decline particularly in the younger ages resulting in sharp increase in the
young population and young dependency ratio: In high-fertility countries of Africa and even
some countries in Asia, 45-55 percent of the population are children, and old people
constitute only four-eight percent of the total population

Type II: Fertility decline is resulting in a bulge in the working ages dependency ratio lowest:
Many developing countries, including India, are at this stage of the transition now.

Type III: Old age dependency increases: Children constitute less than 30 percent, and elderly
population comprise15 per cent or above.

These types of age structure have a direct influence on the future of a nation or region, since
both extremes, i.e., old age dependency as well as young age dependency proves to be a
burden on the economy. It is important, therefore, to measure the shape of the age structure.

4. Age Structure transition in India

“Age Structural Transition” (AST) is a process and consequence of shifting in age structure
from young to old age cohort of the population over a period either by single year or age
groups(World Population Prospect, 2006)). It is the proportion of total population undergoes
a transition from a higher to a lower or declining (increasing) share in these age groups due to
the demographic transition of moving from a high mortality and fertility to a situation of low
mortality and fertility.

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Figure 2: Age-Structural Transitions (AST) in India, 1950–2050

100%
Dependent population
90%

80%

70%
share of population (%)

60%
Windows of Opportunity
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
1970

1995

2020

2045
1950
1955
1960
1965

1975
1980
1985
1990

2000
2005
2010
2015

2025
2030
2035
2040

2050
50-64 25-49 15-24 65+ 0-14

Source: Computed from United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, population
division, World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision. https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

It is recognized that the age structure changes have significantly contributed by demographic
gift or the ‘demographic bonus’ or ‘window of opportunity’ leading to economic growth in
many countries of the world. By the changes in age structure, we mean a decline in young
aged population and an increase in the proportion of working age group population. This is
suitable for an economic take-off, provided that the other factors such as political stability,
adequate savings and investment, human capital and the knowledge economy, required for
development are in place (Pool, 2000; Mason, 2005). It is an integral part of the demographic
transition.

In India, the share of young aged population (0-14) years seems to decline through 2020
sharply, after thatstabilises from the 2030s onwards that cover around 25 percent of the total
population. While the share of the prime working aged population increases from 1975s
which contributes to a decline in the dependency ratio burden from the 1975s, old aged
population begins to grow from 2025s. This is an excellent opportunity to pursue the policies
that will help the middle age working population to save more. Between these periods, there
is a period called ‘window of opportunity’ for development in age structure transition.

India has a potential to improve employment sector, industrialisation, health services,

consumption of good and services, and quality of education when the dependency ratio starts
declining with improvement in the country’s per capita GDP growth. The size of the prime
working-age population is likely to decline sharply from the year 2025s which will ease the
unemployment situation. Accessibility of health care and social security care and
improvement of life expectancy of the elderly would be a major challenge for their
population age. The proportionate share of the aged population (65+) will continue to
increase at a higher pace during the phase of age structural transitions from the 2020s in
China followed by India. But the share of elderly population stabilises after the 2020s as seen

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in Figure 3. Therefore, the age structure is a dynamic process of transition over the economic
growth as cohort moves from young to the old aged population. The magnitude coined by
implemented socio-economic policies and institutional factors immediately toutilise the
window of opportunity. That will not be adequate for economic take-off, along with rapid
ageing process on which countries went up into a period of demographic turbulence.

5. Determinants of Age Structure

People enter or leave in a population cohort through birth, death, and migration. The age
structure of a population depends on three fundamental determinants and its consequence of
trends in fertility, mortality, and migration. These are interdependent; any change in one may
influence the other two. It is through these variables that the socio-economic conditions affect
the age structure. Besides these, there are also some important variables that impact age
structure. Effect of e0(Life expectancy) varies over the transition. For instance, in early
transition, increase in e0 leads to even younger population (gains are at young ages) and in
later transition, increase in e0 leads to the older population.

5.1 Fertility

It determines the proportion of new-born in reproductive age categories. The most of the
Asian countries like India, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan and others (except Japan, Singapore,
Hong Kong and South Korea), Sub Sharan African and Latin American countries have high
fertility. Since the longevity and life expectancy in these countries is short, the proportion of
the elderly is also not very high. According to the accessible data for the period 2010, in most
of the countries of Europe and North America, about 20 percent of their entire population is
under the age of 15 years. While, in India, about 33 percent of its population is under 15
years of age and 5.5 percent above 60 years. On the converse, the European countries, with
low fertility rate and long-life expectancy, have only 20 percent of their populations in the
younger age group. Moreover, the share of the population in the older age groups in
developed countries is relatively large. Consequently, most of the countries of Anglo-
America, Europe, Japan, Australia, and NewZealand have almost completed their
demographic transition and are observed to in the Second DemographicTransition state. The
age-sex composition in which the proportion of growing population (below 15) is lower than
that of the rising old age population (above 65).However, the short-run effects of a fertility
decline differ from the long-run effects.From figure-4, it may beseenthat the trend of total
fertility rate significantly declines from 1950-2010, after thatit becomes stagnant till 2030.
Reason for fertility decline leads immediately to fall in youth dependency ratio, but the rise in
old age dependency does not occur until the large pre-decline cohorts reach old age(World
Population Prospect, 2015). During the intermediate period, the entire dependency ratio is
provisionally below trend: there is a temporary reduction in the number of dependents (both
young and old) per working-age person. This decrease in the dependence can give the
economy a transitory boost and is referred to as a “demographic bonus” (World Population
Prospect, 2015; Bloom and Williamson 1998).

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Figure 3. Trends in Total fertility rates (TFR) for India
7
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30

Source: Computed from United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, population
division, World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision. https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

5.2 Mortality

The age structure is also affected by the mortality rate. In general, if the survival rate during
the adolescence improves then the proportion of children is expected to rise, and
consequently, the older people will tend to fall. But, if the survival rate improves among the
older ages, the share of older population improve, but the number of the children will tend to
fall. Likewise, if the mortality is low both among younger and older age groups as in the case
of developed countries like Sweden, Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Belgium and Denmark, the
fraction of the working aged population will be larger, and the dependency ratio became
small. In contrast to this, if the decline in mortality is sharper in lower age group than the
older age club, it results in the swelling up of numbers people in younger age group as is the
case with most of the populations ofthe developing nations(World Population Prospect,
2015). However, in India figure 5 shows that the age distribution of deaths in India over a
period of 1991 to 2030, which reveals how mortality has determined the shape of age
structure transition. The cohort wise deaths show that mortality rate is much higher in a0-4
age group in 1991 in India followed by significant reductions in 2011 and is expected to go
down further by 2030. But unfortunately, the conditions are reverse for people in cohorts 70+
among them. Besides, the most important part is that from cohort 5-9 to 65-69 age group
death rate looks like the reverse shape of population pyramid where the male mortality rate is
much higher than female.

Figure 4.Age distribution of Deaths in India, 1991, 2011 and 2030

Source: Dubey.M, Trends and Prospects of Mortality by Age and Sex in India: 1991 –
2030.http://paa2014.princeton.edu/papers/141995 (http://paa2014.princeton.edu/abstracts/141995)

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5.3 Migration

This has a direct bearing on the age structure, both immigrants, and emigrants. Those who
migrate usually belong to the relatively younger age group. When the youthsout-migrate, the
population of older adults and aged people starts declining after some period. The influence
of migration upon the age structure is extensive becausemigration tends to be age selective.
People in the age group of 15-30 years are more mobile than the individuals in the younger
and less in older age groups. Consequently, the population of the juvenile and old age groups
increases at the place of origin of migration. Table 2 also provides the rate of mobility in
census years separately. From Table 2 we see that females are more mobile than males in the
country. Thus, on the whole, less than one-third of the total population in the country is
movable as per census data or in other words, a majority of the population are immobile.
Attributing a low rate of mobility in the country at that time to the predominance of the caste
system, joint families, the practice of early marriages, diversity of language and culture, lack
of education and predominance of agriculture in the marketplace (Hassan, 2005: 303).
Accelerated transformation of the Indian economy in the post-independence period
characterised by an improvement in the levels of education, transport and communication
facilities has influenced mobility pattern of Indian people in recent times (Kundu and Gupta,
1996: 3392). Despite this, evidence indicates an almost constant decline in population
mobility over nearly four decades after independence also shape the age structure of
population pyramid over time.

Table2. Migrants as Percentage of Total Population in India, 1971 - 2001

(place of the last residence)

Years Total Male Female

1971 29.12 17.46 41.66

1981 30.3 17.22 44.3

1991 26.94 14.05 40.85

2001 30.07 17.04 40.05

Source: Census of India (Computed from various years), Migration Tables, D Series, Various Years, Office of
the Registrar General of India, New Delhi

6. Summing up

Age structure plays a critical role in population distribution, in particular through the process
of shifting in age structure from young to old age cohort of the population over a period
either by single or age groups. It undergoes a transition from a higher to a lower or declining
(increasing) share in these age groups due to the interactive effects of mortality and fertility.
Apart from fertility, mortality, and migration, the age structure of the population is also
influenced significantly by wars (male selective in their casualty), catastrophes, natural
calamities and population policies. Above mention, determinants are directly or indirectly
affected or influenced by the age structure of a country or a region. Besides, the Task Force
of the National Commission on Population (NCP) has already identified the numerous keys
on social, economic and demographic indicators for age structure of the population in India.

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