Comparison of Influence of The Financial Crisis of 2008 and The Political Events of 2014 On Political Trust in Belgium
Comparison of Influence of The Financial Crisis of 2008 and The Political Events of 2014 On Political Trust in Belgium
Comparison of Influence of The Financial Crisis of 2008 and The Political Events of 2014 On Political Trust in Belgium
Keywords — European social survey, Federal election , Financial Crisis , Political Trust , MGCFA , Structural Equation
Model 3 2018 0.977 0.966 7400. 0.000 19 1713 2014 trstprt 0.94 0.022 42.04 0.000
332 7
Model 3 2008 0.924 0.888 4138 0.000 19 1666 2014 trstep 1.0 0.026 40.37 0.000
5.367 0
Model 4 2014 0.995 0.980 424.4 0.000 4 1682 2014 trstlgl 1.0
36
2014 trstplc 0.686 0.032 21.17 0.000 From table 2 it can be inferred that trust in political parties
0 and trust in European parliament have very high influence
on defining trust in representative political institutions in
2018 trstprl 1.0
Belgium if the three individual years under study
2018 trstprt 0.890 0.028 31.36 0.000 (2014,2018 and 2008) are considered separately. From table
7 2 it can also be inferred that trust in police has very high
influence on trust in implementing political institutions if
2018 trstep 1.0 0.026 40.34 0.000
the three individual years under study (2014,2018 and
7
2008) are considered separately. As measurement
2018 trstlgl 1.0 invariance has not been established at this stage,
comparison across years can not be conducted. In
2018 trstplc 0.727 0.030 24.06 0.000 2014,2018 and 2008 it can be concluded that trust in
9
political parties have a greater influence on trust in
2008 trstprl 1.0 representative political institutions than trust in police has
on trust in implementing political institutions if the
2008 trstprt 0.945 0.030 31.53 0.000 individual years are considered. From table 3 it can be
0 concluded that trust in representative political institutions
and trust in implementing political institutions are closely
2008 trstep 0.996 0.033 29.91 0.000
1 linked for Belgium in the years under study.
Mode l Restri Degre AIC BIC Chi Chi Sq. P Table 8: CFI comparison of configurational and metric
ctions es of Sq. Differ Value model for strong invariance (2014-2018)
Freed ence
om Table 7 shows that adding restrictions on intercepts in
addition to loadings significantly changes the model fit.
Confi No 8 67273 67470 73.87 Similar conclusion can be drawn from table 8 as there is
gurati Restri 7 non-zero change in CFI between the two models. Thus in
onal ctions this case the assumption of strong measurement invariance
Metri Equal 11 67272 67450 78.68 4.241 0.236 has to rejected. As strong measurement invariance could
not be proved, In accordance to Meredith W. (1993)[17],
c Loadi 9 9 5
difference between modification indices across groups
ngs
have been studied to find if the effect of freeing a
parameter is substantially different across groups (details
Table 5: Anova comparison of configurational and metric can be found in appendix IV). In accordance to greatest
model (2014-2018) for weak invariance changes in modification indices, addition restrictions have
been added to attempt to prove partial strong invariance.
Model Restrictions Difference in CFI Difference in Greatest differences in modification indices have been
scaled CFI
prioritized. All comparisons have been made between the
Configuratio nal No model with equal loadings across groups, equal loadings
Restrictions and intercepts with increasing additional restrictions. The
comparisons can be found in the following tables :
Metric Equal 0 0
Loadings Additi Degree s AIC BIC Chi Sq. Chi Sq. P
onal of Freedo Differe Value
Table 6: CFI comparison of configurational and metric Restric m nce
tions
model for weak invariance
From table 5 it can be observed that adding constraints for Equal 11 67272 67450 78.689
equal loadings across groups does not significantly change loadin gs
the model fit. The same conclusion can be drawn from
table 6 as well, as there is no difference in CFI between
trstep 14 67301 67460 112.98 35.108 1.156x
the two models. Thus weak measurement invariance ~1 5 10-07
between the two models can be confirmed in this case.
trstep 14 67301 67460 112.98 35.108 1.156x
In order to prove strong invariance additional restrictions ~ 5 10-07
has been added in which both loadings and intercepts are
equal across groups. The comparison of the model with 1,trstlg
equal loadings across groups and equal loadings , l~1
intercepts across groups can be observed as follows:
trstep 14 67301 67460 112.98 35.108 1.156x
Mode l Restri Degre AIC BIC Chi Chi Sq. P
~ 5 10-07
ctions es of Sq. Differ Value
Freed ence 1,trstlg
om l~
1,trstpl
Mode Equal 11 67272 67450 78.68 c~1
l4 Loadi 9
ngs
14 65899 66058 129.7 49.16
Table 9: Comparison of models with additional
Mode l Equal 1.202
35 7 restrictions
4 loadin x10-10
gs Additional Difference in CFI Difference in scaled
Restrictions CFI
and
interc trstep ~ 1 4x10-03 3x10-03
epts
trstep ~ 1,trstlgl ~ 1 4x10-03 3x10-03
Table 7: Anova comparison of configurational and metric
model for strong invariance (2014-2018)
trstep ~ 1,trstlgl ~ 4x10-03 3x10-03
Model Restrictions Difference in CFI Difference in 1,trstplc ~ 1
scaled CFI
Model 4 Equal
Loadings Table 10: CFI comparison for models with additional
Model 4 Equal loadings 0.007 0.008 restrictions with model with equal loadings across groups.
and intercepts
It is to be noted that all additional restrictions shown on
table 9 and 10 are in additional to equal loadings and
intercepts if not explicitly mentioned. From table 9 and 10
trstep ~ 1 0.011 0.012 construct of political trust, it has been concluded that it is
trstep ~ 1,trstlgl ~ 1 0.011 0.012 not possible to understand if the political opinion of the
general population has improved or deteriorated in this
trstep ~ 1,trstlgl ~ 0.011 0.012 time period but it can be inferred that the diverse set of
1,trstplc ~ 1 political events in Belgium has ensured that the general
population has constantly re-evaluated their understanding
Table 16: CFI comparison for models with additional
and outlook of politics in the period under study.
restrictions with model with equal loadings across groups.
It is to be noted that in table 15 and table 16, the
REFERENCES
restrictions are in addition to loadings and intercepts being [1] Armingeon, K., & Ceka, B. (2014). The loss of trust in the
constrained across the group unless explicitly mentioned. European Union during the great recession since 2007: The role of
heuristics from the national political system. European Union
It can be inferred from table 15 that additional restrictions
Politics,15(1), 82– 107.
change the model fit significantly. Similarly, from table 16
[2] Bartels, L. (2014). Ideology and retrospection in electoral
it can be inferred that the fits of the models with additional
responses to the Great Recession. In L. Bartels & N. Bermeo
restrictions are different from the model with just equal (Eds.), Mass politics in tough times: Opinions, votes and protest in
loadings and intercepts across the groups. Thus strong the great recession. New York: Oxford University Press.
invariance could not be proven in this case and it has to be [3] Dave Sinardet (2008) Belgian Federalism Put to the Test: The
concluded that the construct of political trust in Belgium 2007 Belgian Federal Elections and their Aftermath, West
(as estimated using model 4) between the years 2008 and European Politics, 31:5, 1016-1032, DOI:
2018 are not clearly comparable. 10.1080/01402380802234706
The objective of this study was to understand the structure [5] Wiebke Breustedt (2017). Testing the Measurement Invariance of
of political trust in Belgium and to compare the effect of Political Trust across the Globe. A Multiple Group Confirmatory
Factor Analysis. Methoden, Daten, Analysen. 1864-6956 (Print);
micro and macro events on political trust. Macro in this 2190-4936 (Online). GESIS - Leibniz-Institute for the Social
case refers to the financial crisis of 2008 and micro in this Sciences, Mannheim
case refers to the difficulties observed in formation of
[6] Arpino, B., Obydenkova, A.V. Democracy and Political Trust
Belgian federal government post the election of 2014. Before and After the Great Recession 2008: The European Union
From model 4 (figure 4) it can be concluded that the and the United Nations. Soc Indic Res 148, 395–415 (2020).
construct of political trust in Belgium can be expressed [7] Van Erkel, Patrick F.A, and Van Der Meer, Tom W.G.
using separate constructs of trust in representative political "Macroeconomic Performance, Political Trust and the Great
institutions and trust in implementing political institutions. Recession: A Multilevel Analysis of the Effects of Within-country
Fluctuations in Macroeconomic Performance on Political Trust in
In each year under study (i.e. 2014,2018 and 2008) trust in
15 EU Countries, 1999-2011." European Journal of Political
political parties and trust in European parliament have Research 55.1 (2016): 177-97. Web.
strong influence on trust in representative political
[8] Source of data: The data used in this research work can be
institutions. In each year under study, trust in police has downloaded here:
strong influence on trust in implementing political
https://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/data/themes.html?t=politics.
institutions.
The data files from 2014 and 2018 from the political theme of
The influence that trust in police has on implementing european social survey has been used in this project.
political institutions is lower than the influence of trust in [9] Ariely, G., & Davidov, E. (2012). Assessment of measurement
European union and trust in political parties on equivalence with cross-national and longitudinal surveys in
political science. European Political Science, 11, 363–377.
representative political institutions for each year under
study. From section IV of the study it can be concluded [10] Poznyak, D., Meulemann, B., Abts, K., & Bishop, G. F. (2014).
Trust in American government. Longitudinal measurement
that political trust in Belgium are not clearly comparable
equivalence in the ANES, 1964-2008. Social Indicators Research,
constructs when comparing the political trust between 118, 741–758
2008-2018 and 2014-2018 and thus the differences in
[11] Image Source: The image has been taken from [5]
political trust between 2008-2018 and 2014-2018 can not
be stated in this case as the same may lead to comparison [12] Allum, N., Read, S., & Sturgis, P. (2011). Evaluating change in
social and political trust in Europe using multiple group
of constructs that are not the same across the years under
confirmatory factor analysis with structured means. In E. Davidov,
study. J. Billiet, & P.Schmidt (Eds.), Cross cultural analysis: Methods and
applications. New York, NY: Routledge.
It can be concluded from this study that the construct of
political trust in Belgium has been a changing entity from [13] Nardis, Yioryos. "News, Trust in the European Parliament, and EP
Election Voting: Moderated-Mediation Model Investigating
2008 to 2018 and due to the changing nature of the
Voting in Established and New Member States." The International
Journal of Press/Politics 20.1 (2015): 45-66. Web. test for multivariate normality for the variables in each
[14] Torgler, Benno. "Trust in International Organizations: An model is warranted. Variables used in model 4 and model
Empirical Investigation Focusing on the United Nations." The 5 have been tested. Results of multivariate normality test
Review of International Organizations 3.1 (2008): 65-93. Web. can be found in the following table:
[15] Youngsuk Suh (2015) The Performance of Maximum Likelihood
Year Model Test Statistic P Multiva
and Weighted Least Square Mean and Variance Adjusted
statistic Values Value riate
Estimators in Testing Differential Item Functioning With
Normali ty
Nonnormal Trait Distributions, Structural Equation Modeling: A
Multidisciplinary Journal, 22:4, 568-580, DOI:
10.1080/10705511.2014.937669 2014 Model 4 Henze- 9.261834 0 No
[16] Wu, Huiping, and Leung, Shing-On. "Can Likert Scales Be Treated Zirkler
as Interval Scales?—A Simulation Study." Journal of Social 2014 Model 4 E 24.64456 0 No
Service Research 43.4 (2017): 527-32. Web. Statistic
[17] Meredith, W. (1993). Measurement invariance, factor analysis and
2014 Model 5 Henze- 9.332276 0 No
factorial invariance. Psychometrika 58, 525–543. doi:
Zirkler
10.1007/BF02294825 Journal of Social Service Research 43.4
(2017): 527-32. Web. 2014 Model 5 E 28.82509 0 No
Statistic
APPENDIX
Year Model Test Statistic P Multiva
I. DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLES
Statistic Values Value riate
Name of variable Description Scale Normali ty
2018 Model 4 Henze- 8.340047 0 No
trstprl Trust in country’s parliament 0-10
Zirkler
trstprt Trust in political parties 0-10 2018 Model 4 E 20.87165 0 No
Statistic
trstlgl Trust in legal system 0-10
2018 Model 5 Henze- 8.197119 0 No
trstplc Trust in the police 0-10 Zirkler
2018 Model 5 E 24.59548 0 No
trstun Trust in the United Nations 0-10 Statistic
trstep Trust in the European parliament 0-10 2008 Model 4 Henze- 16.76151 0 No
Zirkler
2008 Model 4 E 6.689054 0 No
Table 17: Description of variables used in the study Statistic
2008 Model 5 Henze- 6.887859 0 No
Each variable used in this study has values from 0 to 10, all Zirkler
other values available has been removed for this study. The 2008 Model 5 E 20.31953 0 No
following categories has been removed : Statistic
Table 19: Test for multivariate normality
Response value Description
MVN package has been used to test for multivariate
77 Refusal
normality and the same can be seen in the implementation
88 Don’t know of the project. It can be observed from table 19 that
99 No answer multivariate normality could not be proved in any case but
as the number of observations are greater than 1000 in
Table 18: Removed values from all variables
each case, it can be assumed that deviations from
In the variables seen in table 17 the value 0 represents the multivariate normality are not quite substantial. To
lowest agreement to a trust element and 10 represents mitigate the effect of deviations from normality, robust
absolute agreement to a trust element. The agreement to a maximum likelihood estimators (MLM) of lavaan package
trust construct is structred in increasing order from 0 to 10. in R has been used for estimating model 4 and model 5 for
II. ESTIMATORS USED AND TEST FOR NORMALITY each year.
In model 2 and model 3 the variables have been treated as III. FIT STATISTICS FOR MODELS WITH ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS
ordinal and as such weighted least square mean and
variance adjusted estimator has been used. In model 4 and In section IV of the study, in-order to prove measurement
model 5 the variables have been treated as numerical. As invariance model 4 has been fitted with additional
per assumption of confirmatory factor analysis, restrictions. The fit statistics of models with additional
multivariate normality should exist in the variables used to restrictions can be found in the following table:
estimate the models. As the four models tested in this
study use two different combination of variables, separate
Restricti ons Yea GFI AFGI Chi Sq. P Value Loading 2018
r Statistic s s&
Intercep
Equal 201 0.998 0.993 78.689 0.000 ts, trstep
4-
~ 1,
Loading 201
trstlgl ~
8
1, trstplc
s
~1
Equal 201 0.997 0.992 112.985 0.000
4- Table 20: Fit statistics for all models with restrictions
Loading 201
Table 20 shows the fit statistics or all models that have been
8
s& tested with additional restrictions. In each case GFI and
Intercep AGFI show a good model fit. chi-squared test does not
ts accept any of the models but as the number of observations
Equal 201 0.997 0.992 112.985 0.000 are quite greater than 200, the chi-squared test result in this
4- case may not be reliable.
Loading 201
8 V. MODIFICATION INDICES
s,
Intercep Modification indeces have been used in section IV of the
ts, trstep study in order to attempt to establish partial
~1 invariance. The modification indices are of model 4
Equal 201 0.997 0.992 112.985 0.000 with equal loadings and intercepts across groups . The
4-
greatest changes in across groups modification indices
Loading s & 2018
Intercep ts, can be studied in the following tables :
trstep
Relation Group Modification Indices
~ 1, trstlgl ~ 1
f =~ trstlgl 1 3.044
f =~ trstlgl 2 0.240
Equal 2014- 0.997 0.992 112.985 0.000
f =~ trstplc 1 3.044
Loading 2018 f =~ trstplc 2 0.240
s& f1 =~ trstep 1 3.136
Intercep f1 =~ trstep 2 1.258
ts, trstep
~ 1,
trstlgl ~ Table 21 : Modification Indices for additionally
1, trstplc constrained factors in the partial invariance test for
~1
2014 - 2018
Equal 2008- 0.999 0.996 45.327 0.000
Relation Group Modification Indices
Loading 2018
f =~ trstlgl 1 1.135
s
f =~ trstlgl 2 0.632
Equal 2008- 0.997 0.991 134.627 0.000 f =~ trstplc 1 1.135
Loading 2018 f =~ trstplc 2 0.632
s& f1 =~ trstep 1 13.967
Intercep f1 =~ trstep 2 11.938
ts
Equal 2008- 0.997 0.991 134.627 0.000
Table 22 : Modification Indices for additionally
Loading 2018
constrained factors in the partial invariance test for
s&
Intercep 2008 - 2018
ts, trstep
In table 21 and 22 , the latent factors f and f1 represent trust
~1
in the representative political institutions and trust in
Equal 2008- 0.997 0.991 134.627 0.000
implementing political institutions respectively. Additional
Loading 2018
modification indices have not been reported as the
s&
Intercep
difference of the other modifications indices across groups
ts, trstep are not substantially high.
~ 1,
trstlgl ~
1
Equal 2008- 0.997 0.991 134.627 0.000