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Math108x Document w10GroupAssignment

Billy and Brad want to predict baseball team winning percentages based on payroll. They believe teams with higher payrolls will win more games. They collect payroll and winning percentage data from MLB teams over recent years. Billy and Brad create a scatterplot and linear trendline showing a positive relationship between payroll and winning percentage. Using the trendline, they predict the 2018 winning percentages for Billy's Oakland A's and Brad's New York Yankees based on their payrolls.

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Joel Haro
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100% found this document useful (3 votes)
830 views36 pages

Math108x Document w10GroupAssignment

Billy and Brad want to predict baseball team winning percentages based on payroll. They believe teams with higher payrolls will win more games. They collect payroll and winning percentage data from MLB teams over recent years. Billy and Brad create a scatterplot and linear trendline showing a positive relationship between payroll and winning percentage. Using the trendline, they predict the 2018 winning percentages for Billy's Oakland A's and Brad's New York Yankees based on their payrolls.

Uploaded by

Joel Haro
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 36

Billy and Brad are brothers who are obsessed with baseball.

They
want to predict which teams will win based on the team payroll.

They assume that better payers earn more money. Therefore they
believe that teams with high payrolls are more likely to win. They
want to use data to see if their belief is valid. They plan to create a
trendline to predict winning percentage based on total payroll.
Determine the input and output variables for this situation:

Input Variable: team payroll

Output Variable: win percentage

Billy and Brad find the following data for the last few years for Major
League Baseball teams in the United States.
Create a scatterplot of the data. Then determine which type of
trendline is most appropriate for this data. Add the trendline to your
scatterplot.

Follow this link to the textbook to review steps for creating a trendline in Excel:
http://www.byuimath.com/math108x/Lesson10.html#excel_instructions_-_trendlines

Record the equation of your trendline here: Y = 0.1318x + 69.133

Billy's favorite team is the Oakland A's. In 2018, the Oakland A's
payroll was a total of $50.7 million. Brad's favorite team is the New
York Yankees. In 2018, the Yankee's payroll was a total of $158.5
million. Use your trendline to predict the winning percentage for
each team.
Billy's favorite team is the Oakland A's. In 2018, the Oakland A's
payroll was a total of $50.7 million. Brad's favorite team is the New
York Yankees. In 2018, the Yankee's payroll was a total of $158.5
million. Use your trendline to predict the winning percentage for
each team.

Oakland A's predicted winning percentage: 75.81526

NY Yankee's predicted winning percentage: 90.0233

Does the scatterplot and trendline support Billy and Brad's


assumption that teams with high payrolls are likely to win a greater
percentage of their games than teams with lower payrolls? Why or
why not?

Yes, because a more paid player is due to the higher


performance he has in the game. then the team with
better players has a higher percentage of winning the
games obviously that they have a high payroll.
What kind of situation would lead Billy and Brad to re-evaluate their
reasoning?

it can be that certain teams recently are changing their


coaches of the team or their formation and the
performance of their players decreases causing the
percentage of games won by a team to decrease.
Insert Scatterplot here
Team Payroll
(in millions of dollars) Win Percentage
216.10 93.33 Win Percentag
146.66 92.33
127.40 91.33 100
119.57 84.67 90
f(x) = 0.131817335115894 x + 6
115.16 82.67
80
114.40 94.33
110.05 75.67 70
Win Percentage

ns_-_trendlines 108.16 85.67 60


103.53 83.67 50
+ 69.133 102.60 88.67 40
101.81 82.33
30
101.69 80.33
94.20 73.00 20

92.44 78.33 10

0
0 50 100

Payroll
30

20

10
88.62 85.33 0
0 50 100
83.43 69.00
80.10 78.00 Payroll
73.72 82.67
73.22 75.33
70.97 82.67
70.83 80.00
68.22 81.33
67.66 85.00
67.28 87.67
64.74 80.00
61.01 68.67
56.81 67.67
48.52 67.33
39.76 74.67
27.07 77.67

h
e
eir

References:
Win Percentage

100
f(x) = 0.131817335115894 x + 69.1332018402677
90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250

Payroll
30

20

10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250

Payroll
www.sportrac.com/mlb
seanlahman.com/baseball-archive/statistics
Juanita sells cars for a car dealership. Her pay is based on the number of cars she
sells each month. She wants to take a couple of weeks off for vacation and wants
to find the month when car sales will be slowest.

Juanita assumes that the number of cars she sells per month will follow the same
trend as national car sales. She wants to create a trendline to predict the number
of car sales based on the month. She also assumes that this year's sales will be
similar to last year's sales.
Determine the input and output variables for this situation:

Input Variable: month number

Output Variable: numbers of cars sold

Juanita finds this data for the number of car sales for March through February of
last year.
Create a scatterplot of the data. Then determine which type of trendline is most
appropriate for this data. Add the trendline to your scatterplot.

Follow this link to the textbook to review steps for creating a trendline in Excel:
http://www.byuimath.com/math108x/Lesson10.html#excel_instructions_-_trendlines

Record the equation of your trendline here: y = 355.26x2 - 3436.1x + 212449

Juanita is thinking of going on vacation in either April or September. She wants to


predict how many cars will be sold nationwide in April and September of this year.
Because April was month 2 and September was month 7, she found the predicted
value for months 2 and 7.
Juanita is thinking of going on vacation in either April or September. She wants to
predict how many cars will be sold nationwide in April and September of this year.
Because April was month 2 and September was month 7, she found the predicted
value for months 2 and 7.

Predicted cars sold in month 2 (April): 206997.84

Predicted cars sold in month 7 (September): 205804.04

The vertex of the parabola shows Juanita the month with the lowest car sales. Use
the formula x = -b/(2a) to find the x-coordinate of the vertex of the parabola
(round to the nearest hundreth).

x = 4.84
Use the table on the right to see which month corresponds to the x-coordinate of
the vertex. When should Juanita take her vacation? Hint: Consider what the decimal
means when choosing a month

Juanita must take her vacation in June because that is the lowest
month in sales, the decimal indicates that around July sales growth
begins again. But even so, where the lowest point is, it is still June.
She must choose the last weeks of June because there is the lowest
point.

What other things should Juanita consider, other than potential car sales, when
deciding the month for her vacation?

Other things to consider is that if she can take advantage of her


vacation time in June or maybe that month there is nothing she can
do on her vacation so she can also take it in July or early June.
Something that can also be considered is the type of car sold,
perhaps the profit of the cars varies according to the time.
Other things to consider is that if she can take advantage of her
vacation time in June or maybe that month there is nothing she can
do on her vacation so she can also take it in July or early June.
Something that can also be considered is the type of car sold,
perhaps the profit of the cars varies according to the time.
d on the number of cars she
s off for vacation and wants

month will follow the same


dline to predict the number
at this year's sales will be

ation:

March through February of Total Number of Insert Scatterplot here


Month Number Cars Sold
1 207717
Total Numbe
ch type of trendline is most 2 209493 225000
catterplot.
3 206083 f(x) = 355.264985014985 x² − 3
220000
4 207547
Total Number of Cars Sold

215000
5 200303
6 200100 210000

structions_-_trendlines 7 204441 205000


8 209288 200000
55.26x2 - 3436.1x + 212449 9 215730
195000
10 213341
190000
or September. She wants to 11 217663
and September of this year. 12 220591 185000
1 2 3 4 5
h 7, she found the predicted
Month
195000

Total
190000

185000
1 2 3 4 5

Month

5804.04

Month Name Month Number


with the lowest car sales. Use March 1
vertex of the parabola April 2
May 3
June 4
4.83603557957552 July 5
August 6
ponds to the x-coordinate of September 7
int: Consider what the decimal October 8
November 9
December 10
e that is the lowest January 11
und July sales growth February 12
oint is, it is still June.
use there is the lowest

n potential car sales, when

advantage of her
ere is nothing she can
ly or early June.
ype of car sold,
to the time.
advantage of her
ere is nothing she can
ly or early June.
ype of car sold,
to the time.
t Scatterplot here

Total Number of Cars Sold


225000
f(x) = 355.264985014985 x² − 3436.06368631368 x + 212448.977272727
220000
Total Number of Cars Sold

215000

210000

205000

200000

195000

190000

185000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month Number
Total 195000

190000

185000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month Number
References: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
James lives in Portland Oregon and has a microfiber couch he wants to sell. James
plans on using the money to buy a new computer that costs $1150. He currently
has $500 saved to purchase a new computer. James needs to determine whether
he will get enough money from the sale of his couch to purchase the new
computer.

What assumptions does James need to make?

What are James' input and output variables?

Input Variable: Sofa Quality

Output Variable: Sale Price

First, estimate the quality of James's couch using a scale of 1-10, 10 being best. Complete a web
search of prices of used couches in Portland, Oregon. Use a website like Craigslist to complete
the search. Without thinking about the price, record your take on the quality of the couch using a
scale of 1-10, 10 being best. After judging the quality of the sofa record the price of the sofa.
Once you've gathered data on 15 couches and have filled out the table to the right.

Create a scatterplot of the data. Then determine which type of trendline is most appropriate for
this data. Add the trendline to your scatterplot.
Follow this link to the textbook to review steps for creating a trendline in Excel:
http://www.byuimath.com/math108x/Lesson10.html#excel_instructions_-_trendlines

Record the rating you assigned to James' couch here: 9

Record the equation of your trendline here: y=4.1972e0.92x

Use your trendline to predict the sale price of James' sofa, based on its quality.

Predicted Sale Price of James' sofa: 285.170

What sale price should James list in his advertisement? What price did you
calculate from your equation? And what price would you suggest? Does it appear
he will get enough money from the sale of the couch to pay for the laptop?

Type your answer here:

How did you decide which type of trendline to use? How strong was the pattern in
your data? Why does the strengh of the trendline matter? Should the strengh of
the trendline affect James' decision?
How did you decide which type of trendline to use? How strong was the pattern in
your data? Why does the strengh of the trendline matter? Should the strengh of
the trendline affect James' decision?

Type your answer here:


ouch he wants to sell. James
t costs $1150. He currently
eeds to determine whether
o purchase the new

0, 10 being best. Complete a web Insert Scatterplot here


bsite like Craigslist to complete Sofa Quality Sale Price C
on the quality of the couch using a
a record the price of the sofa. 8 100 300
he table to the right. 5 1
9 250 250
trendline is most appropriate for
7 25
200
8 19
8 15
150
6 75
10 60 100

f(x) = 4.1972175549042 e
50

0
4 5 6
150

100
10 40
f(x) = 4.1972175549042 e
9 60 50
8 25
structions_-_trendlines 7 180 0
4 5 6
10 75
10 50
6 150
72e0.92x

sofa, based on its quality.

? What price did you


you suggest? Does it appear
to pay for the laptop?

ow strong was the pattern in


tter? Should the strengh of
Advertisement:

Super soft suede like material. Large


/ big 3 person sofa 90" width 36"
high 36" depth. Sink into this sofa
just once, and you'll know how it
got its name. Designed with extra-
deep seats and three layers of thick
padding on the arms and back, it's
designed for unparalleled comfort.

t Scatterplot here
Chart Title

f(x) = 4.1972175549042 exp( 0.291972765352033 x )

5 6 7 8 9 10 11
f(x) = 4.1972175549042 exp( 0.291972765352033 x )

5 6 7 8 9 10 11
This week, we will be completing our final case stud
choose your own data for a trendline evaluation. Th
Study requires two submissions: (1) a first draft, wi
due Thursday, and (2) the final copy, with steps 1-5
Saturday.

For Step 5, you will work with 2 group members to


decision. These evaluations can happen in person (
email. Please review instructions in the Week 10 an
details on your options.
Use the checklist as your guide when reviewing you
Study. Please be sure to be thorough and provide t
will allow your classmate to successfully evaluate th
W10 Trendline Case Study
our final case study where you will Checklist for
line evaluation. The Trendlines Case
1) a first draft, with steps 1-4 completed, Review the rubric
py, with steps 1-5 completed, due final copy of the T
Verify that the sce
trendline
roup members to evaluate your data and Do the key variab
appen in person (via zoom) or through (x and y) in the da
n the Week 10 announcements for more Are there at least
Does the chosen
Was an appropria
hen reviewing your group member's Case made from the da
ugh and provide thoughtful feedback that Do you have any o
ssfully evaluate their decision. their Case Study?
ase Study Help

Checklist for Case Study Evaluation:


Review the rubric (below this box) your instructor will use to gra
final copy of the Trendlines Case Study
Verify that the scenario chosen is approprate for a scatterplot an
trendline
Do the key variables listed in Step 2 match the input and output
(x and y) in the data table for Step 3?
Are there at least 15 points of data from an verifiable source?
Does the chosen trendline match the data?
Was an appropriate decision reached in Step 4 based upon a pre
made from the data?
Do you have any other feedback for your classmate to help them
their Case Study?
n:
ctor will use to grade the
or a scatterplot and

input and output variables


rifiable source?
based upon a prediction

mate to help them improve

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