This document provides guidelines for identifying trading opportunities by understanding market structure and value. It discusses understanding the market stories told through order flow, using multiple time frames, and leveling the playing field between retail and professional traders by properly interpreting market data. Key concepts covered include understanding market conditions like trends and ranges, identifying reference points of value defined as the price region with the most volume over time, and closely watching commercial traders who have insight into value.
This document provides guidelines for identifying trading opportunities by understanding market structure and value. It discusses understanding the market stories told through order flow, using multiple time frames, and leveling the playing field between retail and professional traders by properly interpreting market data. Key concepts covered include understanding market conditions like trends and ranges, identifying reference points of value defined as the price region with the most volume over time, and closely watching commercial traders who have insight into value.
This document provides guidelines for identifying trading opportunities by understanding market structure and value. It discusses understanding the market stories told through order flow, using multiple time frames, and leveling the playing field between retail and professional traders by properly interpreting market data. Key concepts covered include understanding market conditions like trends and ranges, identifying reference points of value defined as the price region with the most volume over time, and closely watching commercial traders who have insight into value.
This document provides guidelines for identifying trading opportunities by understanding market structure and value. It discusses understanding the market stories told through order flow, using multiple time frames, and leveling the playing field between retail and professional traders by properly interpreting market data. Key concepts covered include understanding market conditions like trends and ranges, identifying reference points of value defined as the price region with the most volume over time, and closely watching commercial traders who have insight into value.
andreybbrv 5 Page PDF Cheat Sheet – loaded with easy to follow guidelines on the most commonly used entry, stops and exit tips and tricks. This is an outline to a live discussion with real examples. Assumptions: It is with our belief that the market is the only entity that is 100% transparent and 100% correct. All indicators are a derivative of the market and therefore create lag. Because the futures markets are transparent- according to the CBOE, and offers complete price transparency and an orderly dual auctioning process, a trader can look for clues hidden within the order flow. A great trader will ask himself/ herself this question at every level in the market: What story is the market telling me? This is where you create “IF” Then” scenarios and make no assumptions. If the story being told by the markets order flow is unclear then there is no need to rush for judgment. It simply means the market needs more information, the trade has no edge and therefore there is no trade. A complete market understanding can come only from first understanding the market. And the market does not consist of one day’s trading or one time frame. It consists of a number of days and depends on its “condition”. If the market is trending, its condition can be described by including all those days since the trend began. If it is in a trading range, it can be described only by taking into account the activity since the trend ended. The missing link to market understanding is found within the data itself. All the relevant data must be used. Many retail traders do not have access to the inside information and they do not have the market understanding that comes with years of experience until now. Information directly from the markets, properly interpreted, can level the playing field between the professional and retail traders. It is extremely important to understand Market structure and condition, who the principal players are and what they are doing. Once you can find value that a group of prices over time will be perceived as fair then you can readily identify prices that are too high or too low relative to said value. Then and only then will you know the markets behavior and quickly be able to detect the unexpected when it occurs. In the end, if you follow value and changes in value, you can control trading risk. If you know value, you can know the most important reference points. The best way to consider the markets is both from the longer term fundamental (value- based (price over time)) and short term technical analysis (price).
andreybbrv What is value? Value can be understood as price over time. That is, value is located by volume: It is the price region to which the market continues to return over a period of time. Market Profile theory defines value as 68-70% of trading volume or a bell-shaped curve to represent “normal” statistical distribution. Understanding the market structure leads to finding the markets condition and the reference points from commercial and institutional traders. Once the market condition, value and other reference points are found, a trader is in position to make low-risk trading decisions and avoid the daily bear and bull traps. The first trader to identify value wins. The condition of the market will be described as: ● Balanced Markets ● Trend Days, ● Continuation ● Value Divergence
Commercial Traders www.cftc.gov
Why am I spending so much time on this? And Who are Commercial Traders? Commercials are the dominant force in trading, period. They work for financial institutions, governments and large corporations such as XOM, Monsanto etc… Each day they have business to transact which they try to do at value. Because of their insight, they understand value better than anyone else on the floor. (For example, grain commercials know the prices for which their firms are buying and selling grain, and hence current value.) When prices deviate from value, the commercials often identify value by selling near the top and buying near the bottoms. Commercial traders are closely watched by others on the floor because if the smartest traders (those with legal inside information) are selling, should you be buying? Overlaying value with the understanding of commercial traders will give you the fundamentals and foundation of the markets. Keeping track of value will limit your risk and protect profits. You can also set your expectations with this method. Once potential trades are identified, use technical analysis and oscillators to identify price and the discrepancies or deviations from value. Price can then be validated by volume imbalance.