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Identify an Edge in any Market!

Trading collection: http://www.forex-warez.com andreybbrv@gmail.com, Skype:


andreybbrv
5 Page PDF Cheat Sheet – loaded with easy to follow guidelines on the most commonly
used entry, stops and exit tips and tricks. This is an outline to a live discussion with real
examples.
Assumptions: It is with our belief that the market is the only entity that is 100% transparent
and 100% correct. All indicators are a derivative of the market and therefore create lag.
Because the futures markets are transparent- according to the CBOE, and offers complete
price transparency and an orderly dual auctioning process, a trader can look for clues
hidden within the order flow.
A great trader will ask himself/ herself this question at every level in the market: What story
is the market telling me? This is where you create “IF” Then” scenarios and make no
assumptions. If the story being told by the markets order flow is unclear then there is no
need to rush for judgment. It simply means the market needs more information, the trade
has no edge and therefore there is no trade.
A complete market understanding can come only from first understanding the market. And
the market does not consist of one day’s trading or one time frame. It consists of a number
of days and depends on its “condition”. If the market is trending, its condition can be
described by including all those days since the trend began. If it is in a trading range, it can
be described only by taking into account the activity since the trend ended. The missing link
to market understanding is found within the data itself. All the relevant data must be used.
Many retail traders do not have access to the inside information and they do not have the
market understanding that comes with years of experience until now. Information directly
from the markets, properly interpreted, can level the playing field between the professional
and retail traders. It is extremely important to understand Market structure and condition,
who the principal players are and what they are doing. Once you can find value that a group
of prices over time will be perceived as fair then you can readily identify prices that are too
high or too low relative to said value.
Then and only then will you know the markets behavior and quickly be able to detect the
unexpected when it occurs. In the end, if you follow value and changes in value, you can
control trading risk. If you know value, you can know the most important reference points.
The best way to consider the markets is both from the longer term fundamental (value-
based (price over time)) and short term technical analysis (price).

Trading collection: http://www.forex-warez.com andreybbrv@gmail.com, Skype:


andreybbrv
What is value?
Value can be understood as price over time. That is, value is located by volume: It is the
price region to which the market continues to return over a period of time. Market Profile
theory defines value as 68-70% of trading volume or a bell-shaped curve to represent
“normal” statistical distribution.
Understanding the market structure leads to finding the markets condition and the reference
points from commercial and institutional traders. Once the market condition, value and other
reference points are found, a trader is in position to make low-risk trading decisions and
avoid the daily bear and bull traps. The first trader to identify value wins.
The condition of the market will be described as:
● Balanced Markets
● Trend Days,
● Continuation
● Value Divergence

Commercial Traders www.cftc.gov


Why am I spending so much time on this? And Who are Commercial Traders?
Commercials are the dominant force in trading, period. They work for financial institutions,
governments and large corporations such as XOM, Monsanto etc… Each day they have
business to transact which they try to do at value. Because of their insight, they understand
value better than anyone else on the floor. (For example, grain commercials know the
prices for which their firms are buying and selling grain, and hence current value.) When
prices deviate from value, the commercials often identify value by selling near the top and
buying near the bottoms. Commercial traders are closely watched by others on the floor
because if the smartest traders (those with legal inside information) are selling, should you
be buying?
Overlaying value with the understanding of commercial traders will give you the
fundamentals and foundation of the markets. Keeping track of value will limit your risk and
protect profits. You can also set your expectations with this method. Once potential trades
are identified, use technical analysis and oscillators to identify price and the discrepancies
or deviations from value. Price can then be validated by volume imbalance.

Trading collection: http://www.forex-warez.com andreybbrv@gmail

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