Ciência Rural, Santa Maria, Climate

v.51:8,change
e20200110, 2021
impacts on agriculture sector: A case study ofhttp://doi.org/10.1590/0103-8478cr20200110
Pakistan. 1
ISSNe 1678-4596
CROP PRODUCTION

Climate change impacts on agriculture sector: A case study of Pakistan

Uzair Ali1 Wang Jing1* Jialin Zhu1 Zhibek Omarkhanova2 Shah Fahad3
Zhanar Nurgazina1 Zaid Ashiq Khan1
1
College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, PR, China. E-mail: wangjing660113@yeah.net.
*
Corresponding author.
2
Department of Finance S.Seifullin Kazakh Agro technical University Astana, Kazakhstan.
3
School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China.

ABSTRACT: The current article looks at the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially crop production, and influence factors of
agricultural development in terms of their rational use in Pakistan. Due to the dependence of economic development, and agriculture in the
South Asian region on access to renewable national resources and the associated vulnerability to climate change, the limited financial and
professional resources of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan require a clear definition of national priorities in this area. In the preparation of
this article, general scientific cognition methods, in particular, empirical-theoretical methods were used. Grouping and classification methods
have been used to process and systematize the data. The ability to change productivity, depending on the variation of the average annual air
temperature and the average annual precipitation rate, was considered using a two-factor regression model. The main finding of the study is
that temperature and precipitation have a negative impact on agricultural production. This study can provide a scientific justification for the
specialization of agricultural production in the regions of Pakistan as well as the execution of the necessary agricultural activities.
Key words: agriculture, climatic conditions, agriculture economy, stabilization, grain crops, crop production.

Impactos das mudanças climáticas no setor agrícola: um estudo de caso do Paquistão

RESUMO: O objetivo deste artigo é examinar os efeitos das mudanças climáticas na agricultura, especialmente a produção agrícola e
os fatores de influência do desenvolvimento agrícola em termos de uso racional no Paquistão. Devido à dependência do desenvolvimento
econômico e da agricultura na região do sul da Ásia do acesso a recursos nacionais renováveis ​​e à vulnerabilidade associada às mudanças
climáticas, os recursos financeiros e profissionais limitados da República Islâmica do Paquistão exigem uma definição clara das prioridades
nacionais nessa área. Na preparação deste artigo, foram utilizados métodos gerais de cognição científica, em particular métodos teórico-
empíricos. Os métodos de agrupamento e classificação foram utilizados para processar e sistematizar os dados. A capacidade de alterar a
produtividade, dependendo da variação da temperatura média anual do ar e da taxa média anual de precipitação, foi considerada usando
um modelo de regressão de dois fatores. A principal descoberta do estudo é que a temperatura e a precipitação têm um impacto negativo
na produção agrícola. Este estudo pode fornecer uma justificativa científica para a especialização da produção agrícola nas regiões do
Paquistão, bem como a execução das atividades agrícolas necessárias.
Palavras-chave: agricultura, condições climáticas, economia agrícola, estabilização, colheita de grãos, produção agrícola.

INTRODUCTION agricultural risks obliges producers to put stability and

a guaranteed result to the first position in the system
The Islamic Republic of Pakistan feels of their interests (POINTNER & RITZBERGER-
the need to find solutions to issues such as obtaining GRÜNWALD, 2019).
objective and unbiased assessments of climate Agricultural production is characterized
changes in its territory, including assessing the role by a special risky environment, as it presents natural
of the anthropogenic factor in current and upcoming and climatic risks, which are dangerous and highly
climate changes, assessing the impact of climate affect the final results of the activity (CHANDIO
change on the agricultural sector of the economy and et al., 2020b). Moreover, the economic damage
the social sphere. Therefore, the integrated impact of they cause is not only comparable to the scale of
Received 02.06.20 Approved 11.01.20 Returned by the author 03.10.21
CR-2020-0110.R2 Ciência Rural, v.51, n.8, 2021.
2 Ali et al.

the financial results of commodity producers but is required. The solution to such a large-scale task
periodically exceeds them. Farms also suffer losses as requires time and great effort. Agriculture is one of
a result of exposure of traditional for any commercial the key industries in Pakistan. The main crop of the
activity risks (production, marketing, financial): the country is wheat (JANJUA et al., 2014) (Table 1).
size of these losses is large, difficult to assess, and the The agricultural sector of Pakistan is
consequences are fatal (STOEFFLER et al., 2020). facing the issue of irrigation facilities (CHANDIO et
A rare and constantly decreasing network of al., 2020a). Approximately 70% of the sown area is
stations sharp differences in the hydrometeorological irrigated. The main area of agriculture is irrigated from
regime of individual regions of the state and the wells, dams, canals, and rivers. Many new projects
absence of microclimatic significantly complicates of irrigation are still under construction, which would
the task of assessing resources by traditional methods help in the future to irrigate Pakistan’s agricultural system
and approaches, making it impossible in some (KAHLOWN & MAJEED, 2003). The development of
areas. The vulnerability of the region is even more the agriculture sector is imperative in any country,
aggravated by the inefficient use of resources, outdated particularly in Pakistan because it plays a major role
infrastructure, low practical application of relevant in the socio-economic stability of the country. However,
standards and norms, as well as the poor condition climate change is the most important, vulnerable,
of ecology and high levels of pollution (SHAH & and sensitive factor for the agriculture sector (ALI
PARK, 2020). The importance of agriculture in the et al., 2020). Thus, climate change has a negative
economies of different countries is different, but with impact on the growth, maturation, and yield of cotton
the growth of GDP per capita and structural changes plants and the lives of farmers.
in the economy, the share of agriculture decreases, The rational use of the wealth and
which is predictable. In some of the world’s poorest diversity of the country’s climatic conditions,
countries, agriculture accounts for more than including changing conditions, is the key to its stable
30% of economic activity, and in general for the development (ZHU et al., 2004). There is considerable
group of least developed countries - 27% of GDP. uncertainty in the quantitative estimates of how the
Pakistan is small compared to India with respect to expected climate changes will proceed in the future
the agriculture sector FAO, (2018) and low energy and which impact they will have on ecosystems,
production compared to neighboring Iran (BANK, economic activities, and social processes in different
2015). Its “natural wealth” is a favorable geostrategic countries and regions, including Pakistan. Both positive
position, which made Pakistan as a connecting link and negative consequences are possibly depending on
between the regions of the Middle East, Central, and the level of development of the region and its climate
South Asia (KHETRAN, 2016). However, to make (ZAIED & CHEIKH, 2015). Unfortunately, the
this a necessary condition for turning Pakistan into an accuracy of existing climate forecasts is low today.
important center of cooperation and development of None of the models can fully simulate the climate. Due
the region, the creation of a developed infrastructure to the significant uncertainty of climate forecasts noted

Table 1 - World ranking position of Pakistan.

No Agricultural production World ranking position

1 Chickpea 2nd in the world
2 Apricots 4th
3 Cotton 4th
4 Sugarcane 4th
5 Onions 5th
6 Dates 6th
7 Mango 7th
8 Tangerines 8th
9 Rice 8th
10 Wheat 9th
11 Oranges 10th

Ciência Rural, v.51, n.8, 2021.

 Climate change impacts on agriculture sector: A case study of Pakistan. 3

above, the range of estimates of the possible economic change. As the temperature continues to rise, and
consequences of climate warming remains wide. precipitation continues to change, water will become
To rescue the production system and the an increasingly scarce resource for farmers, which
growth of potential damage from natural disasters threatens the food security and livelihoods of farmers
is a need for developing economic research and in the Indus basin, as well as general food security in
assessment of the use of climate information. Pakistan (KAMENEV S.N. 2014). The objectives of
Considering the importance of the agricultural sector this study are two-fold. First, this study checks the
in the country’s economy and its dependence on impact of change in temperature on the agricultural
natural and climatic conditions, insurance in crop sector in Pakistan. Second, this study determines the
production was classified as mandatory. In addition, influences of changes in precipitation on the agriculture
agricultural production is at risk of natural disasters sector in Pakistan. The rest of the paper is organized as
and emergencies. Natural hazards such as drought, follows. The next section is the materials and methods.
hail, heatwaves, and floods can lead to serious The third section is results and discussion. The final
production losses (SARKER et al., 2012; PRAVEEN section is about the conclusion of the manuscript.
& SHARMA, 2019; ALI et al., 2020; CHANDIO et
al., 2020c; MALASHIKHINA N.N. 2014). MATERIALS AND METHODS
Since Pakistan is located in a high-risk
agricultural area, where the average annual drought Pakistan is an agrarian country. Therefore,
rate is 40%, and in some regions of the country reaches agriculture is the basic component of the economy
60%, the problem of frequent adverse weather events of Pakistan, whose share in the country’s GDP at
is further complicated by their systemic nature, when this moment is approximately 25% and provides
droughts affect vast areas of the country’s agricultural employment for approximately 45% of the country’s
land, and they can lead to massive losses for working population. If we consider the dynamics of
agricultural producers. The consequences of adverse agricultural development since 1999, the development
weather conditions also affect the financial stability trend was different each time (Table 2 and Figure 1).
and solvency of agricultural producers. According to So, for example, this national natural
KISELEVA (2003) in her publications on stabilizing disaster affected approximately 21 million people at
the financial situation of agricultural enterprises, the end of 2010. The main problems for populating
many factors, in particular, climatic conditions the country were associated with a growing shortage
influenced the indicators of declining productivity. of food and drinking water and the spread of
Simultaneously, weather risk is superimposed on various diseases. Accordingly, during this period,
economic risk, which makes it difficult to identify due to climate change, there was a sharp decline in
and analyze it. KURMANBAEV and ALIBAEVA agricultural development in Pakistan.
(2015) in their articles reported that it is necessary In 2015–2016, northern Pakistan was
to identify effective ways to reduce agricultural risks, affected due to clashes and armed operations. As
which are conducted on the basis of the development a result, the livelihood of a massive population
of scientifically based recommendations and require suffered. For rehabilitation, many international level
knowledge of the structure and sources of financial project was launched in the territory for reducing
support provided by equipment, crop protection economic inequality. As a result of this project,
products, financial guaranties of insurance coverage. agricultural production was increased. The demand
The impact on risk by insurance means that other for agricultural products is increasing due to the rapid
methods do not fully compensate for the possible growth of the population in Pakistan. Therefore, the
damage and losses from various risks. government is taking a step to increase crop yields,
The barriers that are facing Pakistan in the controlling the prices of fertilizers and pesticides
agricultural sector are mismanagement of resources, (GOP, 2017d). Moreover, the government has taken
technological issues, low investment, infrastructure, measured to support farming, including concessional
agricultural trade issues, and an acute shortage lending and priority investment projects, budget
of electricity and energy problems (JANJUA et subsidies to the agricultural provinces of Punjab
al., 2014; ALI et al., 2020). These problems have and Sindh, subsidized interest rates on loans, loan
been complemented by the severe ongoing climate insurance, and reimbursement of leasing payments
change, drought, and floods. Serious prediction of for processing equipment for farmers contributed
such extreme weather events can become more to the widespread development of agriculture under
frequent and serious in Pakistan as a result of climate consideration period (GOP, 2012, GOP, 2017).

Ciência Rural, v.51, n.8, 2021.

4 Ali et al.

Table 2 - Average annual agricultural growth rate in Pakistan (%).

No Year The average annual growth rate of agriculture

1 1999-2000 6.1
2 2000-2001 -2.2
3 2001-2002 1
4 2002-2003 4.1
5 2003-2004 2.4
6 2004-2005 6.5
7 2005-2006 6.3
8 2006-2007 4.1
9 2007-2008 1
10 2008-2009 4
11 2009-2010 0.5
12 2010-2011 1.2
13 2011-2012 3.5
14 2012-2013 3.3
15 2013-2014 3.6
16 2014-2015 3.2
17 2015-2016 0.2
18 2016-2017 3.5

Note - Compiled on the basis of source:

(GOP, 2005 ), (GOP, 2013), (GOP, 2017c).

These data show that those years from year on June 30. Table 3 presents that at the end of
2012–2013 to 2016–2017, since the fiscal year in 2016-2017, the volume of agricultural production
Pakistan does not coincide with the calendar year increased by 3.5%, which is significantly higher
and begins on July 1 of this year, and ends next than the growth rate of 0.3% observed a year earlier.

Figure 1 - Dynamics of development of the average annual growth rate of agriculture in Pakistan for the period from
1999-2017 years, %.

Note - Compiled by the author.

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 Climate change impacts on agriculture sector: A case study of Pakistan. 5

Table 3 - Rostselsko-economic sector of the economy in 2012 - 2017 financial years.

Economic sector 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 Share in GDP

Agriculture 3.3 3.6 3.2 -0.2 3.5 19.5
Major cultures 1.2 8.0 0.3 -7.2 4.1 4.7
Minor cultures 6.1 5.4 1.1 -0.3 0.2 2.2
Animal husbandry 3.5 2.8 4.1 3.6 3.4 11.4
Fishing 0.7 1.0 5.8 3.2 1.2 0.4
Forestry 1.0 -6.7 3.2 8.8 14.5 0.5

Note - Compiled from the source data of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics for 2012-2017.

Despite the reduction in the area of cultivated land for are rice, wheat, cotton, sugarcane, corn. The minor
the first time in the last decade, it has been possible crops include legumes, onions, potatoes, tomatoes,
to increase agricultural production in all major crops cucumbers, and other vegetables and fruits. Together,
(GOP, 2017b). they form up to 80% of total exports (Figures 2 and
Cotton production grew by 7.6% in 3) (GOP, 2017b).
absolute terms, amounting to 10.6 million bales; The export of goods and services consists
the yield of sugar cane and corn allowed to collect of sales, barter, gifts and grants, and services from
73.6 million tons (+ 12.4%) and 6.1 million tons (+ residents to nonresidents. The processing of exports
16.3%), respectively. Minor growth in production and imports in SNA coincides with the indicator in
volumes was noted for wheat (+ 0.5%, 25.7 million the balance of payments accounts, as described in the
tons) and rice (+ 0.7%, 6.8 million tons). Among non- Balance of Payments Manual (Table 4) (GOP, 2011).
main crops, growth was recorded in the cultivation Although historically the most fertile lands
of peas (+ 25.5%) and beans (+ 27.4%), onions (+ (at the same time the most convenient for construction)
2.7%) and chili pepper (+ 0.2%). Simultaneously, reported themselves within urban agglomerations,
the volumes of barley, rapeseed, lentils, tobacco, the main reason for the loss of fertile lands is their
potatoes, and fruits fell. Livestock, a prerequisite for degradation due to water and wind erosion, , which is
Pakistan’s growing economy, accounted for 11.4% illustrated in table 5 (PAPTSOV, 2018).
of Pakistan’s agricultural output. The government of Let analyze how the change in climatic
Pakistan supports the livestock sector. The growth conditions affects the yield of grain crops. For this,
of agricultural production in livestock amounted we compiled table 6, which presents data on cereal
to 3.4%, at the end of 2017. The number of cattle production and their changes for the period from
(cows and buffaloes) amounted to 82.1 million 2006–2017 (WWW. HIKERSBAY).
heads, goats and sheep - 102.3 million heads, A graphical representation of the
donkeys - 5.2 million heads. Poultry farming is one of monthly change in climate data for temperature and
the fastest-growing agricultural sectors in Pakistan, precipitation affecting cereal production is shown in
providing 7.1% of the agricultural sector. 1.5 million figure 4 (PAKISTAN, 2017).
Pakistanis are employed in the cultivation of 85.6 The difference between the rainfall and
million poultry stocks. At the end of 2016–2017, the driest and the wettest month is 81 mm. The
the cost of poultry products amounted to 162.8 temperature varies throughout the year by 12.0 °C.
billion Pakistani rupees. For each month, you will find data on precipitation
Despite the modest contribution of fisheries (mm), average, maximum and minimum temperature
to Pakistan’s GDP (0.41%), this sector is a stable (in degrees Celsius and Fahrenheit). The first line
source of foreign exchange earnings to the budget. shows the name of the months starting from January
At the end of 2017, 520000 million tons of fish were until the end of December.
caught, of which one-fifth was exported ($ 276.2 Figures 5, 6, 7 show the statistical data
million) (GOP, 2017a). Pakistan is exporting various necessary for constructing a two-factor regression
commodities to different countries of the world. The model (SIKAN, 2007; BATES, et al., 2008;
major commodities of Pakistani exports in agriculture PAKISTAN, 2017).

Ciência Rural, v.51, n.8, 2021.

6 Ali et al.

Figure 2 - The structure of Pakistan’s export of food products for 2013-2017, billion US
dollars.

Note: Compiled on the basis of the source: Annual review of the state of the economy and the
main directions of foreign economic activity of Pakistan for 2017 - Islamabad, 2018.

Since the time series of the average annual - Average air temperature (Cº), x2 - The number of
air temperature and the average annual amount precipitation (mm.) (SEDELEV, 2009). We evaluated
of precipitation is subject to fluctuations, we first the parameters of the two-factor regression equation
perform exponential smoothing of these indicators (we using the Regression analysis tool (Data Analysis in
take the smoothing parameter to be 0.3). We introduce Excel). As a result of data approximation, the following
and take y - Crop yield of grain (thousand tons), x1 multiple linear regression equation was obtained:

Figure 3 - Dynamics of the development of agricultural exports of Pakistan for the period of 1971-2017.

Note - Compiled by the author on the source data: http://www.bps.gov.pk.

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 Climate change impacts on agriculture sector: A case study of Pakistan. 7

Table 4 - The impact of exports on agriculture.

Year Value Change, %

2017 -0.2 -86.03%
2016 -1.6 -74.73%
2015 -6.3 328.57%
2014 -1.5 -110.90%
2013 13.6 -190.53%
2012 -15.0 -732.36%
2011 2.4 -84.90%
2010 15.7 -567.33%
2009 -3.4 -26.16%
2008 -4.6 -401.52%
2007 1.5 -84.74%
2006 9.9

Note - Compiled on the basis of the source data: http://www.bps.gov.pk.

crop to change depending on changes in the average

The multiple correlation coefficient is annual air temperature and the average annual rate
equal R = 0.78, which indicates a close relationship of precipitation. We define the aggregate averages of
between the resulting trait and two-factor traits at the elasticity coefficients:
same time. Results of the regression analysis show
that the observed value of the Fisher criterion is The elasticity coefficients show that an
equal to Fobs = 6.369. The critical value of the Fisher increase in air temperature by 1% from the average
criterion at the significance level and the level, productivity decreases by 6.19% from its
number of degrees of freedom k1 = m = 2, k2 = n - m - average level with a constant amount of precipitation.
1 = 8 (where n is the number of observations, m is the Further, with an increase in the amount of precipitation
number of factors) are equal to Fcrit (0.05;2;9)=4.459. by 1% of the average level, the yield decreases by
Since Fobs > Fcrit (6.369 > 4.459), we can conclude 0.59% of its average level at constant air temperature.
about the statistical significance and reliability of The main reason for the degradation of farmland, most
the obtained regression equation. The coefficients strongly associated with global climate change, is water
present that an increase in the average annual air and wind soil erosion (MAAS, A., et al. 2011).
temperature by 1, the grain yield will decrease by
10,580.69 thousand tons. An additional 1 mm drawn- RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
out precipitation also reduces productivity by 47.686
thousand tons. One of the indicators with which you The results of the study have been
can evaluate the measure of the response of one explained in this section. First, increase in
variable to a change in another is the coefficient of air temperature by 1% from the average level,
elasticity. In this patient, it will show the ability of the productivity decreases by 6.19% from its average

Table 5 - Indicators of degradation of farmland in Pakistan (according to the GLADA program), 1981-2008.

Area of degraded The share of degraded land in Share of total world area Percentage of population Total biomass loss,
land, km2 the total area of the country, % of degraded lands, % living on degraded lands, % NPPTC/ year
20644 2.57 0.073 3.58 235711

Note - Compiled by the author based on the source: Paptsov AG Global food security in the context of climate change: monograph /
A.G. Paptsov, N.A. Shelamov. M. RAN.- 2018. – 132.

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8 Ali et al.

Table 6 - Cereal production in (Metric tons).

Year Value Change, %

2017 44 097 200 3.63%
2016 42 554 500 3.59%
2015 41 081 682 -1.94%
2014 41 895 811 4.45%
2013 40 109 711 9.90%
2012 36 496 350 -7.14%
2011 39 304 580 12.91%
2010 34 811 258 -8.74%
2009 38 147 050 7.37%
2008 35 528 100 -0.79%
2007 35 812 200 8.43%
2006 33 027 900

Note - Compiled by the author based on the source: Electronic Resource: www.hikersday.cjm/climate/Pakistan.

level with a constant amount of precipitation. Second, increase inter-annual and intra-annual variability of
an increase in the amount of precipitation by 1% river flow. Uncertainty, regarding this effect reducing
of the average level, the yield decreases by 0.59% of the area of ​​glaciers on river runoff. The increase in
its average level at constant air temperature. In this demand for irrigation water due to higher evaporation
context, climate change is not only a threat to Pakistan rates as a result of higher air temperatures and due
but also the entire world’s agriculture. This may to reduced availability of water resources per capita.

Figure 4 - Set of basic climate data 1901-2017 for Pakistan.

Note - Compiled from source: Climate change profile of Pakistan. © 2017 Asian Development Bank. (https://www.adb.org/sites/default/
files/publication/357876/climate-change-profile pakistan.pdf).

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 Climate change impacts on agriculture sector: A case study of Pakistan. 9

Figure 5 - Grain productivity in 2006-2016, thousand tons.

Note - Compiled by the author based on the source: Climate change profile of Pakistan. © 2017 Asian
Development Bank (https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/357876/climate-change-
profile pakistan.pdf).

Reducing the volume of reservoirs and imperfect The analysis of the study suggested some
irrigation systems with high water losses reduces crop critical results. First, the role of agriculture in the
productivity. An increase in groundwater levels country’s economy plays one of the key values.
due to poor management of irrigation systems and Second, as the systematization of theoretical
the lack of drainage facilities. The lack of cross- approaches by the author has shown, ideas about the
border infrastructure for flow control and glacier role of agriculture in social development have always
monitoring (AHMAD, 2009). been a reflection of the economic realities of the

Figure 6 - The average annual air temperature from 2006 – 2016 year.

Note - Compiled by the author based on the source: (BATES, B., KUNDZEWICZ, Z. and WU, S. Climate change and
water resources). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Technical Paper - Geneva, 2008–228s.

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 Climate change impacts on agriculture sector: A case study of Pakistan. 10

Figure 7 - The average annual amount of precipitation from year 2006 - 2016 in mm.

Note - Compiled by the author based on the source: A. Sikan. Methods of statistical processing of Hydro
meteorological information textbook - St. Petersburg.: RSHU, 2007.

current period and have changed under the influence the context of Pakistan. The specific objectives of this
of technological and socio-economic transformations study are to check the impact of change in temperature
of the agricultural sector; Thirdly, the development on the agriculture sector in Pakistan. The second
of agriculture is based on the corresponding state objective of this study is to determine the influence
agrarian policy. The author considered that the degree of change in precipitation on the agricultural sector in
of government intervention in agriculture, responding Pakistan. For this purpose, the two-factor regression
to the aggravation of agricultural markets, the change model was employed. The results of the study reveal
of technological structures, and the modernization that changes in temperature and precipitation have a
of the social structure of society, has consistently negative impact on the agriculture sector in Pakistan.
expanded from a “point” irregular impact on the Moreover, this study shows that the agricultural sector
development of an integrated system of state regulation highly depends on both these two factors and has a
of the industry (V. MOSKALENKO, 2013). In recent robust association with each other. Furthermore, the
decades, Pakistan has faced many catastrophic agricultural sector is more vulnerable two these two
situations such as political and economic crises, determinants. Therefore, timely adaptation strategies
natural disasters, and other conflicts with neighboring to mitigate these challenges are required.
countries (STADNIK et al., 2014). Besides these issues, In modern conditions, when new functions
climate change is constantly affecting Pakistan’s are assigned to global agriculture to ensure sustainable
agricultural sector. Therefore, without developing general economic development, the regulatory system
a scientifically based strategy for developing the receives a new round of development and enters
industry at all levels of management, it is impossible the interstate level, which assumes international
to overcome the crisis and lay the foundation for coordination of Pakistan’s agricultural policy with
the rapid development of the agricultural sector other states. Thus, farming in most agricultural areas
of the economy. Thus, climate change requires the of Pakistan without irrigation is impossible in others
development and adoption of measures to adapt to it is associated with great risk and brings low yields.
these changes and mitigate their effects (CHANDIO The main reason for the degradation of farmland,
et al., 2020d; SAMOO, 2011). most strongly associated with global climate change is
water and wind erosion of soils. The results obtained
CONCLUSION are intended to provide a scientific justification for
the specialization of agricultural production in the
This study was developed to check the regions of Pakistan and the conduct of the necessary
impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in agricultural activities.

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 Climate change impacts on agriculture sector: A case study of Pakistan. 11

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ence and Pollution Research, v.27, n.8, p.7812-7822. 2020c.

Available from: <https://link.springer.com>. Accessed: Sep. 03,
This study is supported by the General Program of 2020. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-07486-9.
National Natural Science Foundation of China Mechanism of
farmer production connection and its Association Research on the CHANDIO, A. A., et al. Empirical analysis of climate change fac-
Mechanism of Credit Risk Grant No. 71873101. tors affecting cereal yield: evidence from Turkey. Environmen-
tal Science and Pollution Research, p.1-14. 2020d. Available
from: <https://link.springer.com>. Accessed: Sep. 03, 2020. doi:
DECLARATION OF CONFLICT OF 10.1007/s11356-020-07739-y.
INTEREST
CLIMATE AND ANNUAL WEATHER IN PAKISTAN. 1901-
The authors declare no conflict of interest. The 2017. Available from: <www.hikersbay.com/climate/Pakistan. Ac-
founding sponsors had no role in the design of the study; in the cessed: Jan. 11, 2020.
collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the
manuscript, and in the decision to publish the results. FAO. FAOSTAT. 2018. Available from: <http://www.fao.org/fao-
stat/en/#compare>. Accessed: Dec. 25, 2019.

AUTHORS’ CONTRIBUTIONS GOP. GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN (GOP). Agricultural sta-

tistics of Pakistan, 2016-2017. Islamabad Economics Division,
UA and WJ conceived and designed the research. Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock, Government of Paki-
UA collected data and prepared the draft of the manuscript. WJ stan, 2017 [P. 40]. 2017a. Available from: <https://www.pbs.gov.
supervised and provided fund acquisition. UA and JZ performed pkagri-stat-tables>. Accessed: Dec. 25, 2019.
formal analysis. UA, WJ, JZ, ZO, SF, ZN, and ZAK performed
the proofread, edit, revised and approved the final version of the GOP. GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN (GOP). Economic Sur-
manuscript collectively. vey of Pakistan, 2004-2005. Islamabad: Ministry of Finance,
Government of Pakistan, Federal Secretariat, 2005. Available
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