Chapter 1 - Understanding Personal Finance
Chapter 1 - Understanding Personal Finance
Overview
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Study Guide
● Learner should make time to read and understand the given module;
● Some parts of the module is in worksheet type for the learners to
have deep exposure about the given topic;
● Other activities are encourage such as web searching, reading open
journals and other reading materials to generate more idea about
certain topic;
● Don’t hesitate to ask relevant questions for better understanding of
the topics.
● You can find help with your friends, cousins and even your parents
but make sure you are the one who will do this module. One on one
monitoring will be done.
● Monitoring of student’s progress will be implemented through mobile
technology (phone interview and graded recitation over phone calls).
Learning Outcomes
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Topic Presentation
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result, you cannot reach your standard of living without somewhat restricting your
level of living as you save and invest. That’s the trade-off.
Financial happiness encompasses a lot more than just making money. It is the
experience you have when you are satisfied with your money matters. People who
are happy about their finances are likely to be spending within a budget and taking
steps to achieve their goals, and this happiness spills over in a positive way to
feelings about their overall enjoyment of life. Financial happiness is in part a result of
practicing good financial behaviours. Examples of such behaviours include paying
bills on time, spending less than you earn, knowing where your money goes, and
investing some money for the future. The more good financial behaviours you
practice, the greater your financial happiness. In fact, simply setting financial goals
contributes to financial happiness.
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As illustrated in Figure 1.2, the phases of the business cycle are expansion (when
the economy is increasing), peak (the end of an expansion and the beginning of a
contraction), contraction (when the economy is falling), and trough (the end of a
contraction and beginning of an expansion).
The preferred stage of the economic cycle is the expansion phase, where production
is at high capacity, unemployment is low, retail sales are high, and prices and interest
rates are low or falling. Under these conditions, consumers find it easier to buy
homes, cars, and expensive goods on credit and businesses are encouraged to
borrow to expand production to meet the increased consumer demand. The stock
market also rises because investors expect higher profits.
As the demand for credit increases, short-term interest rates rise because more
borrowers want money. Consumers and businesses purchase more goods, exerting
upward pressure on prices. Eventually, prices and interest rates climb high enough to
stifle consumer and business borrowing, send stock prices down, and choke off the
expansion. The result is a period of negligible economic growth or even a decline in
economic activity. In such situations, the economy often contracts and moves toward
a recession. The federal government’s Business Cycle Dating Committee officially
defines a recession as “a recurring period of decline in total output, income,
employment and trade, usually lasting from six months to a year and marked by
widespread contractions in many sectors of the economy.” During recessions,
consumers become pessimistic about their future buying plans.
Eventually the economic contraction ends, and consumers and businesses become
more optimistic. The economy then moves beyond the trough toward expansion,
where levels of production, employment, and retail sales begin to improve (usually
rapidly), allowing the overall economy to experience some growth from its previously
weakened state. The entire business cycle may take six to eight years.
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procyclic indicators are retail sales, industrial production, and number of employees
on nonagricultural payrolls.
Countercyclic Indicator A countercyclic (or countercyclical) economic indicator
is one that moves in the opposite direction as the economy. For example, the
unemployment rate is countercyclic because it gets larger as the economy gets
worse. Similarly, interest rates decline as the economy gets worse.
Leading Indicators Leading economic indicators are those that change before the
economy changes, thus they help predict how the economy will do in the future. The
stock market is a leading economic indicator because it usually begins to decline
before the overall economy slows down. Then the stock market advances before the
economy begins to pull out of a recession. Other examples of leading economic
indicators are the number of new building permits, average number of weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, and the consumer confidence index.
A widely watched leading economic indicator is the consumer confidence index. It
indicates the degree of optimism that consumers are expressing about the state of
the economy. It gives a sense of consumers’ willingness to spend. Growing
confidence suggests increased consumer spending.
Use Economic Information in Your Financial Decision Making
A point at which the economy is in the trough of a recession may be an excellent time
to invest in stocks because the economy will soon expand and stock prices will rise.
If economic indicators suggest that the economy is growing steadily, this may be a
good time to invest in common stock and mutual funds as values are likely to
continue to increase. If the economy begins to show clear signs of a slowdown, it
may be a good time to invest in fi xed-interest securities because interest rates are
sure to fall as the government lowers its own interest rates to boost the economy.
Also, this may be a good time to sell stocks as values are likely to decline as the
economy slows.
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When prices are rising, an individual’s income must rise at the same rate to maintain
its purchasing power, which is a measure of the goods and services that one’s
income will buy. From an income point of view, inflation has significant effects.
Example:
Consider the case of Scott Marshall of Chicago, a single man who took a job in retail
management three years ago at a salary of $32,000 per year. Since that time, Scott
has received annual raises of $800, $900, and $1000, but he still cannot make ends
meet because of inflation. Although Scott received raises, his current income of
$34,700 ($32,000 + $800+$900+ $1000) did not keep pace with the annual inflation
rate of 4.0 percent ($32,000 x 1.04 $33,280; $33,280 x 1.04 $34,611; $34,611 x 1.04
$35,996). If Scott’s cost of living rose at the same rate as the general price level, in
the third year he would be $1296 ($35,996 - $34,700) short of keeping up with
inflation. He would need $1296 more in the third year to maintain the same
purchasing power that he enjoyed in the first year.
Personal incomes rarely keep up in times of high inflation. Your real income (income
measured in constant prices relative to some base time period) is the more important
number. It reflects the actual buying power of the nominal income (also called
money income) that you have to spend as measured in current dollars. Rising
nominal income during times of inflation creates the illusion that you are making more
money, when in actuality that may not be true. To compare your annual wage
increase with the rate of inflation for the same time period, you first convert your
dollar raise into a percentage, as follows:
For example, imagine that John Bedoin, a single parent and assistant manager of a
convenience store in Columbia, Missouri, received a $1600 raise to push his $37,000
annual salary to $38,600. Using Equation (1.1), John calculated his percentage
change in personal income as follows:
After a year during which inflation was 4.0 percent, he did better than the inflation
rate because his raise amounted to 4.3 percent. Measured in real terms, John’s raise
was 0.3 percent (4.3 4.0). In dollars, his real income after the raise can be calculated
by dividing his new nominal income by 1.0 plus the previous year’s inflation rate
(expressed as a decimal):
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Clearly, a large part of the $1600 raise John received was eaten up by inflation. To
John, only $115 ($37,115 $37,000) represents real economic progress, while $1485
($1600 $115) was used to pay the inflated prices on goods and services. The $115
real raise is equivalent to 0.31 percent ($115 $37,000) of his previous income,
reflecting the difference between John’s percentage raise in nominal dollars and the
inflation rate.
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factor the impact of inflation into your financial decisions in an effort to avoid its
negative effects.
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As you can see from these two questions, comparisons between time periods cannot
be made without making adjustments to money values. Accordingly, time value of
money calculations compares future and present values by taking into account the
interest rate (or investment rate of return) and the time period involved.
The calculation of interest involves (1) the dollar amount, called the principal, (2) the
rate of interest earned on the principal, and (3) the amount of time the principal is
invested.
One way of calculating interest is called simple interest and is illustrated by the
simple interest formula where i prt where (1.3) p the principal set aside r the rate of
interest t the time in years that the funds are left on deposit.
If someone saved or invested $1000 at 8 percent for four years, he would receive
$320 in interest ($1000 x 0.08 x 4) over the four years.
Compounding
But something is missing here. The simple interest formula assumes that the interest
is withdrawn each year and only the $1000 stays on deposit for the entire four years.
Most people do not invest this way. Instead, they leave the interest earned in the
account so that it will earn additional interest. This earning of interest on interest is
referred to as compound interest. And compound interest is always assumed in time
value of money calculations.
Earning compound interest (or compounding) is the best way to build investment
values over time. Because of compound interest, money grows much faster when the
income from an investment is left in the account. In fact, the deposit of $1000 in our
example would grow to $4,661 after 20 years (the calculation is described in the
following paragraph).
The way to build wealth is to make money on your money, not simply to put money
away. Yes, you need to put money away first. But compounding over time is what
really builds wealth.
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amount you would need to set aside today at a given rate of interest for a given time
period so as to have some desired amount in the future.
The present value formula is PV=FV/(1+i)n, where you divide the future value FV by a factor
of 1 + i for each period between present and future dates.
Problem
Suppose you are depositing an amount today in an account that earns 5% interest,
compounded annually. If your goal is to have $5,000 in the account at the end of six years, how
much must you deposit in the account today?
Solution
The following information is given:
interest rate = 5%
number of periods = 6
PV = FV/ (1 + r)t
PV = $5,000 / (1 + 0.05)6
PV = $5,000 / (1.3401)
PV = $3,731
We can use the present value table (or table of discount factors) to solve for the present value.
PV = $5,000 (0.7462)
PV = $3,731
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Assessment
References
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