Probability Spring 2020-2021

Homework 4
Out: Feb 15, 2021; Due: Feb 21, 2021 by 11pm (via LMS Assignments)

You may partner with up to three others (a group of max 4) to submit a single write
up. We encourage discussion with other students in class, even if they are not in your group.
Each student must build a good understanding of all the problems even if they discuss and
collaborate with others. Blatant copying from online resources is forbidden. If there
are confusions or questions, post those on Piazza or see your TA or Instructor.
Submission instructions: We need a single PDF file, uploaded to LMS (in Assignments)
keeping the file size small. Absolutely NO email submission will be accepted. No
exceptions! You can either type out (preferably in Latex, possibly using overleaf.com) or
take very clear pictures of your hand-written solution. The pictures must be combined in a
single PDF file (e.g., import those in Word and print or export as PDF).
Only one submission per group is needed; the first page must clearly mark the names and
students IDs of all the members in the group.

Problem 1: A team wins each match independently with probability 0.4 (and loses with
0.6). Suppose that it plays 9 matches.
(a) What is the probability that it will win exactly 4 matches?
(b) What is the probability that this team will win 4 matches before losing 5 matches? [Hint:
one possible way is to condition on the result of first match and build a generic iterative
expression for the probability of n successes before m failures.]
Problem 2: Suppose that each child born to a couple is equally likely to be a boy or a girl,
independently of the sex distribution of the other children in the family. For a couple having
5 children, compute the probabilities of the following events:
(a) All children are of the same sex.
(b) The 3 eldest are boys and the others girls.
(c) Exactly 3 are boys.
(d) The 2 oldest are girls.
(e) There is at least 1 girl.
Problem 3: A and B alternate rolling a pair of dice, stopping either when A rolls the sum
9 or when B rolls the sum 6. Assuming that A rolls first, find the probability that the final
roll is made by A.
Problem 4: Suppose that E and F are mutually exclusive events of an experiment. Show
that if independent trials of this experiment are performed, then E will occur before F with
P (E)
probability P (E)+P (F )
.
Problem 5: In successive rolls of a pair of fair dice, what is the probability of getting 2
sevens before 6 even numbers?
Problem 6: In each of n independent tosses of a coin, the coin lands on heads with prob-
ability p. How large need n be so that the probability of obtaining at least one head is at
least 12 ?
Problem 7: The probability of getting a head on a single toss of a coin is p. Suppose that
A starts and continues to flip the coin until a tail shows up, at which point B starts flipping.
Then B continues to flip until a tail comes up, at which point A takes over, and so on. Let
Pn,m denote the probability that A accumulates a total of n heads before B accumulates m.
Show that:
Pn,m = pPn−1,m + (1 − p)(1 − Pm,n )

Problem 8: A factory in China started making balls for ballpoint pen tips in order to
improve “skipping” of the pens. It was found that exactly 30% of the balls failed to improve
skipping. 10 of the balls are chosen at random to be examined. Find the probability that:
(a) Fewer than 3 failed the test
(b) More than 7 failed the test
Problem 9: A parallel system functions whenever at least one of its components works.
Consider a parallel system of n components, and suppose that each component indepen-
dently works with probability 21 . Find the conditional probability that component-1 (first
component) works, given that the system is functioning.
Problem 10: A data packet of 980 bytes (1 byte = 8 bits) is transmitted over a WiFi
communication link. The error rate (defined as the probability of any bit to be in error,
independently) over the link is p = 10−4 .
(a) What is the probability the data packet will get through without any error?
(b) Find the probability that the packet contains three or more errors?
Problem 11: Let Qn denote the probability that no run of 3 consecutive heads appears in
n tosses of a fair coin. Show that:
1 1 1
Qn = Qn−1 + Qn−2 + Qn−3
2 4 8
Q0 = Q1 = Q2 = 1

Find Q8 .
Hint: Condition on the first tail.
Problem 12: Mr. Jones has devised a gambling system for winning at roulette. When he
bets, he bets on red and places a bet only when the 10 previous spins of the roulette have
landed on a black number. He reasons that his chance of winning is quite large because the
probability of 11 consecutive spins resulting in black is quite small. What do you think of
this system?
Problem 13: A student needs 10 chips of a certain type to build an electric circuit. It is
known that 5% of these chips are defective. How many chips should he buy for there to be
a greater than 90% probability of having enough chips for the circuit?
1
Problem 14: Consider a weather forecast where chance of rain is 2
each day. Suppose we
define the following events:
R1 = It rains on the 1st day,
R2 = It rains on the 2nd day,
D = It rains on exactly one day
(a) Show that the events R1, R2 and D are pairwise independent, i.e., any two from these
three are independent.
(b) Are R1, R2, D independent? Yes or No? Justify your answer.
(c) Given D, are R1 and R2 independent? Yes or No? Justify your answer.
Problem 15: A woman has a 50% chance of carrying hemophilia. She also has two sons.
If she is a carrier, each son independently has 0.5 probability of having the disease. If she is
not a carrier, her sons will independently be normal (i.e., will not have the disease).
(a) What is the probability that the first son is normal?
(b) What is the probability that the second son is normal?
(c) If first son is normal, what is the probability that the second son is also normal?
(d) If both sons are normal, what is the probability that she is a carrier?
(e) If both sons are normal, and there is a third son, what is the probability that he will
have hemophilia?