Cristal e – College

College of Business Administration

Km.15, Central Highway, Tawala, Panglao, Bohol
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS

Name: Diane Guioguio

______________________________________________________________________
(1.1) Global Trade and the Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic
a. Give at least 5 effects of the Covid-19 pandemic to Global trade?

b. How can digitization help support the global economy to rise back?
Digitization — the mass adoption of connected digital services by consumers,
enterprises, and governments — has emerged in recent years as a key economic
driver that accelerates growth and facilitates job creation. In the current environment
of a sluggish global economy, digitization can play an important role in assisting
policymakers to spur economic growth and employment.

(1.2) The World Trade Organization and the Covid-19 response (refer to WTO resilience report)
a. How can we allow trade to flow while ensuring that it does not inadvertently contribute to the spread of
diseases?

(1.3) The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy

a. How can global cooperation and coordination help resolve the damages caused by the pandemic?

We need strong global cooperation and solidarity to fight COVID-19. In order to resolve the damages
caused by the pandemic, here are some of my resolutions;

First, we must do everything we can for COVID-19 control and treatment. This is a most urgent task.
We must always put the people first, for nothing in the world is more precious than people's lives. We need
to deploy medical expertise and critical supplies to places where they are needed the most. We need to take
strong steps in such key areas as prevention, quarantine, detection, treatment and tracing. We need to
move as fast as we can to curb the global spread of the virus and do our best to stem cross-border
transmission. We need to step up information sharing, exchange experience and best practice, and pursue
international cooperation on testing methods, clinical treatment, and vaccine and medicine research and
development. We also need to continue supporting global research by scientists on the source and
transmission routes of the virus.

Second, the World Health Organization should lead the global response. Under the leadership of Dr.
Tedros, WHO has made a major contribution in leading and advancing the global response to COVID-19. Its
 Cristal e – College
College of Business Administration
Km.15, Central Highway, Tawala, Panglao, Bohol
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS

Name: Diane Guioguio

______________________________________________________________________

good work is applauded by the international community. At this crucial juncture, to support WHO is to
support international cooperation and the battle for saving lives as well. China calls on the international
community to increase political and financial support for WHO so as to mobilize resources worldwide to
defeat the virus.

Third, we must provide greater support for small countries. Developing countries, African countries in
particular, have weaker public health systems. Helping them build capacity must be our top priority in
COVID-19 response. The world needs to provide more material, technological and personnel support for
African countries. China has sent a tremendous amount of medical supplies and assistance to over 50
African countries and the African Union. Five Chinese medical expert teams have also been sent to the
African continent. In total, in the past seven decades, over 200 million people in Africa have received care
and treatment from Chinese medical teams. At present, 46 resident Chinese medical teams are in Africa
helping with COVID-19 containment efforts locally.

Fourth, we must strengthen global governance in the area of public health. We human beings will
eventually prevail over the coronavirus. Yet this may not be the last time a major health emergency comes
knocking at our door. In view of the weaknesses and deficiencies exposed by COVID-19, we need to
improve the governance system for public health security. We need to respond more quickly to public health
emergencies and establish global and regional reserve centers of anti-epidemic supplies. China supports
the idea of a comprehensive review of the global response to COVID-19 after it is brought under control to
sum up experience and address deficiencies. This work should be based on science and professionalism,
led by WHO and conducted in an objective and impartial manner.

Fifth, we must restore economic and social development. While working on an ongoing basis to contain
the virus, countries where conditions permit may reopen businesses and schools in an orderly fashion in
observance of WHO's professional recommendations. In the meantime, international macroeconomic policy
coordination should be stepped up and the global industrial and supply chains be kept stable and unclogged
if we are to restore growth to the world economy.

Sixth, we must strengthen international cooperation. Mankind is a community with a shared future.

Solidarity and cooperation is our most powerful weapon for defeating the virus. This is the key lesson the
world has learned from fighting HIV/AIDS, Ebola, avian influenza, influenza A (H1N1) and other major
 Cristal e – College
College of Business Administration
Km.15, Central Highway, Tawala, Panglao, Bohol
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS

Name: Diane Guioguio

______________________________________________________________________

epidemics. And solidarity and cooperation is a sure way through which we, the people of the world, can
defeat this novel coronavirus.

b. Give at least five industries hardly hit by the pandemic.

The five industries most impacted by COVID-19 are as follows:

Industry Median PD as of March 1, 2020 Median PD as of March 31, 2020

Airlines 9.84% 23.16%

Casinos & Gaming 6.41% 16.46%

Leisure Facilities 5.64% 19.74%

Auto Parts & Equipment 8.57%  18.81%

Oil & Gas Drilling 9.1% 22.5%

Source: Probability of Default Model Market Signals, S&P Global Market Intelligence, March 31, 2020. For illustrative purposes only
 Cristal e – College
College of Business Administration
Km.15, Central Highway, Tawala, Panglao, Bohol
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS

Name: Diane Guioguio

______________________________________________________________________

Based on the analysis of S&P Market Intelligence, the industry most impacted is
the Airlines industry.  The median PD at the start of March is 9.84% which maps to ccc+
credit score. Airlines PD increases to 25.2% (ccc-) by March 23, dips on March 26 to
21.5% (ccc) following the US government stimulus package announcement (including
$58bn bailout for Airlines), but quickly returns to over 25.6% (ccc-) the next day. The main
reasons for the elevated PD include: the mass grounding of air traffic, border closures,
and shelter-in-place policies across the globe, all of which have caused detrimental
impacts on stock performance and raise concerns about the potential viability of some
Airlines.

Two other heavily impacted industries in March are the Casino &

Gaming industry and Leisure Facilities. Casino & Gaming’s median PD was 6.41%
(b-) at the start of March, increasing steadily to 16.46% (ccc) by the end of the month.
Similarly, Leisure Facilities was 5.64% (b-) at the start of March and rose to 19.74%
(ccc) by the end of March. With widespread closures of gaming facilities; the
postponement of most sporting events, including the Summer Olympics; and the
introduction of social distancing measures, Casinos and Leisure Facilities have been
brought to a standstill. Both of these industries were new additions to the top five, having
experienced large changes to median PD during March.

Similar to the previous analysis conducted at the end of February 2020 for the prior two
months, the Auto Parts & Equipment and Oil & Gas Drilling industries remain in the
top five most impacted industries. Auto Parts & Equipment moved from 8.57% (b-) to
21.7% (ccc) on March 23, dipping to 19% (ccc) on March 26 on the back of the US
government’s stimulus package announcement and stays at this level through the end of
March.  The Oil & Gas Drilling industry sector median PD started the month at 9.1%
(ccc+).  On March 8, the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia led to a dramatic
fall in oil prices. Combined with the impact of COVID-19, the demand for oil has been
drastically reduced, causing the median one-year PD to rise throughout March ending at
22.5% (ccc).

(1.4) Life Post-Covid 19 (International Monetary Fund)

a. How can a “digital economy” contribute to a world “post-covid”?
b. What is the most important lesson that the world can learn from the experience of coronavirus pandemic?
c. According to Ian Bremmer, what are the 3 geopolitical trends that occurred amidst the Covid-19 crisis?