Oil Recovery Prediction

12/1/2020 Oil Recovery Prediction
Oil Recovery Prediction

Rustem Zaydullin
December 11, 2013
Submitted as coursework for PH240, Stanford University, Fall 2013
Introduction
Hydrocarbon reserve can be defined as those quantities of
petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by
application of development projects to known
accumulations from a given date forward under defined
conditions. [1] It is important to differentiate between
hydrocarbon reserves and hydrocarbon resources. The
latter is roughly defined as sum of recoverable and
unrecoverable volumes of hydrocarbon in place. There is
always uncertainty in making reserve estimations. The
main source of the uncertainty is lack of the geological
data (e.g., porosity and permeability) available. Based on
the quantity and quality of the available data, different
Fig. 1: Example showing decline curve and
methods for the estimation are used. For example, in the
extrapolation of decline to estimate recovery.
early stage of the hydrocarbon reservoir development,
[5] (Courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey.)
very little information is available; hence, rough
estimations are usually done by using analogy or
volumetric calculations. Whereas, on the late stage of reservoir development, decline curve analysis and
reservoir simulation methods are commonly employed. This paper discusses most commonly used methods
for reserve estimation of a given hydrocarbon reservoir.
Estimation Methods
The most basic technique for the reserve estimation is Volumetric method. It is used to indirectly estimate
recoverable volumes from estimates of reservoir volume, porosity, oil saturation, and recovery efficiency.
The reserve estimate are obtained using simple volumetric relation:
Reserve = V φ S0 b0 × Recovery Factor
Here, V is reservoir volume, φ is average porosity, S0 is the average oil saturation, and b0 is oil formation
volume factor. Note that here porosity and saturation are estimated (using different sources of information
such as well logging, well tests, and seismic data) and have their own uncertainties. Recovery factor is also
uncertain and obtained based on rock and fluid properties, reservoir-drive mechanisms, and reservoir
geometry. For the traditional deterministic approach the input parameters (e.g., φ, S0, etc) are single-valued,
the corresponding reserve volume is also a single-valued "best" estimate. For a modern stochastic approach,
the input parameters are represented by means of probability density functions (PDFs), and the resulting
reserve estimate is a combination of these PDFs. The PDFs are usually "combined" using Monte Carlo
Simulation.
As hydrocarbon reservoir matures and production data

become available, Decline Curve Analysis and Material
Balance methods become the predominant methods for
estimating reserves. [2] In Decline Curve Analysis
production data is extrapolated using semi-empirical
equations and reserves are estimated by this extrapolation.
large.stanford.edu/courses/2013/ph240/zaydullin2/ 1/3
Here the main assumption is that the trend established in

the past will govern the future in a uniform manner. [3]
Therefore, the method should only be applied to the wells
with uniform, lengthy production history. Two commonly-
used extrapolation formulas for the production rate q(t) are
Exponential: q(t) = qi exp(-Dit)
Hyperbolic: q(t) = qi (1+bDit)-1/b
where qi, Di and b are constants. Fig. 1 shows example of

hyperbolic decline curve that is fitted into the production
Fig. 2: Hyperbolic and Exponential Decline data. Theoretically the method is applicable only to the
Curves. single well computations; however, in practice, production
extrapolations done for a group of wells often provide
acceptable approximations. The choice of proper decline equation is essential for the reserve estimation. Fig.
2 demonstrates exponential and hyperbolic decline curves that start with the same initial production. It can be
seen that for the first two years all decline curves fit nearly exactly and produce significantly different
forecast for the later time. Therefore, the requirement of lengthy uniform decline is fundamentally important
for the successful application of the method.
Another widely used technique for the estimation of

recoverable hydrocarbons in place is a Material Balance
method. Here the whole reservoir is treated as a closed
tank where material (mass) is conserved. The reserve
estimate is obtained from the measurements of fluid
production and the resulting change in reservoir pressure
caused by the production. [2] The fluid properties,
production and pressure data are averaged throughout the
reservoir and mass conservation equation is solved
analytically for the averaged system. The method is more
reliable than Volumetric methods as long as there is
sufficient data to establish the pressure-hydrocarbon
production relationship. [4] As in the case of Volumetric
method, Material Balance approach can be used in either
deterministic or stochastic fashion.
A natural extension of Material Balance method is

numerical Reservoir Simulation. In essence, reservoir
simulator is a software that numerically solves mass and
energy conservation equations for the whole reservoir that
is represented as a 3D grid. Grid blocks usually have non-
uniform geologic properties such as porosity and Fig. 3: Example of Reservoir Simulation
permeability. The fluid flow between different grid blocks Results: Oil Saturation Distribution (top) and
is assumed to be governed by Darcy law. Modern Cumulative Oil Production Rate (bottom).
reservoir simulators can handle muticomponent, (Source: R. Zaydullin)
mulitiphase fluids in presence of complex thermal effects.
Depending on the problem, imposed grid can vary from
104 to 108 grid blocks. The governing discretized conservation equations are nonlinear; hence, iterations are
needed to obtain solution. The grid size and severe nonlinearities affect simulation time significantly; typical
simulation time for realistic reservoir model can vary from hours to several days. Common outputs of
reservoir simulation modelling are saturation distribution and production curves (Fig. 3). Use of reservoir
simulators can significantly enhance understanding of reservoir recovery mechanism and provide good
estimation for recovery factor. Reservoir simulation studies are commonly done using stochastic approaches
where porosity and permeability distributions are populated using geostatistics methods.
© Rustem Zaydullin. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered
form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial
rights, are reserved to the author.
References
[1] "Petroleum Resources Management System," Society of Petroleum Engineers, January 2008.
[2] "Petroleum Reservoir Estimation Methods," Petrobjects, 2004.
[3] F. Demirmen, "Reserves Estimation: The Challenge for the Industry," J. Pet. Technol. 59, No. 5, 80
(2007).
[4] R. Mireault and L. Dean, "Reservoir Engineering for Geologists," Fekete, October 2008.
[5] R. R. Charpentier and T. A. Cook, "Variability of Oil and Gas Productivities for Continuous
(Unconventional) Petroleum Accumulations", U.S. Geological Survey, Open File Report 2013-1001, 2013

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12/1/2020 Oil Recovery Prediction

Oil Recovery Prediction

Reserve = V φ S0 b0 × Recovery Factor

As hydrocarbon reservoir matures and production data

Here the main assumption is that the trend established in

Exponential: q(t) = qi exp(-Dit)

Hyperbolic: q(t) = qi (1+bDit)-1/b

where qi, Di and b are constants. Fig. 1 shows example of

Another widely used technique for the estimation of

A natural extension of Material Balance method is

[2] "Petroleum Reservoir Estimation Methods," Petrobjects, 2004.

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