Arbitrage in Trading: Buy Nifty March Fut 1 Lot Sell Nifty Apr Fut 1 Lot
Arbitrage in Trading: Buy Nifty March Fut 1 Lot Sell Nifty Apr Fut 1 Lot
ARBITRAGE IN TRADING
What is arbitrage? What is arbitrage 100, what is arbitrage 90? How to profit from them in trading?
Let us discuss.
Arbitrage 100
It means buying an index Future of one month and selling the same index Future of other month
Arbitrage 100 in case of Nifty will be
Buy Nifty March Fut 1 lot
Sell Nifty Apr Fut 1 lot
Or vice versa
So also Arbritage 100 in case of banknifty will be
Sell Banknifty March 1 lot
Buy Banknifty Apr 1 lot
Or vice versa
Any position like this is a hedged position and margin required is small
Arbitrage 90 ?
Buying one index and selling other index of the same month is what we call arbitrage 90
These are two naked unhedged positions in both different indices and will require more margin
I think it is clear now, what we mean by Arbitrage 100 & Arbitrage 90
We will elaborate more on the thought process that goes behind the idea of arbitrage 90. It is
consistently profitable way to make handsome profit with great ROI with very little (almost negligible)
risk.
The Idea Behind this Arbitrage:
In the Indian market both nifty and banknifty are two separate indices which are traded on NSE.
Though they have different composition, about 35% stocks of Banknifty are also a part of Nifty. So
their movements are related to each other in non linear fashion.
Some times speed/pace of nifty is higher where as at other times that of Banknifty is higher. (one stops
where other moves fast, then reverse)
This creates gap/vacuum in their prices at 90 degree up and down many times in a month.
It is observed that market momentum creates gap between these two in the range of 12 ‐ 27 K
(average 20 K) per set of position. 12 K gap happens 7‐8 times, 20 K two times in a month while 27 K
gap happens once in two three months.
Whenever this vacuum appears in price, usually market reverses the direction from that point. This
point we call a zero line it is a point where reversal from one to other direction occurs with certain
amount of predictability. This predictable nature of the movement of the market creating
gap/vacuum in the prices of nifty and banknifty is what we exploit to make decent profit
Now it is interesting to note that.. If we take arbitrage 100 positions in both indices but in opposite
way to each other, they will also become 2 positions of Arbitrage 90
Like
Buy March Nifty Fut 1 lot
Sell Apr Nifty Fut 1 lot
Sell BNF March Fut 1 lot
Buy BNF Apr Fut 1 lot
These positions taken all together will be hedged one position and will require less margin.
These positions in the market will soon come to a point where either of the two contracts of same
month will be in profit of around 20 K. This is what we call line zero from where mostly indices may
reverse their course. At this point, we book profit and close one position while we continue to hold
the position with 20 K Loss.
Here one important thing to remember is closing position in profit will make remaining position naked
/unhedged there by increasing margin requirement to large extent.
So before closing profitable position, we buy monthly expiry options on either side to create a hedge.
Cost will be about 12‐15 K at the beginning of the month and about 7‐8 K after 15th day of the
month.
These bought options serve two purposes
1. Reduce margins payable
2. Avoid damage to position in case of wild swings of market, instead it creates very profitable
opportunity where bought options together make net profit by two to three times of their cost
After booking the profit in one leg of same month at line zero, we will remain in other leg with hedge
in loss about 20 K. Now here on with further progression of indices, following things can happen
1. It may happen sometimes that due to wild swing in the market, our bought options will be giving 2‐
3 times net profit, this is additional bonus. Then book it after creating an another hedge with further
OTM options.
2. Or our one position in loss reverses and shows 20 K profit. At this point we close the trade and start
a new one again.
3. It may happen that our position in loss of 20 K continues to make further loss increasing up to 27 K.
In this situation we may add one set of arbitrage at 20, 25‐30 K loss.
This requires additional margin but also increases the amount of profit because sooner or later the
indices will reverse and come to zero line when we will have decent profit.
When this happens we close the trade and start with the new cycle again.
Actual cycle flow of the trade taken will be updated later.