Papua New Guinea

Initial National Communication

Under the United Nations

Framework
Convention on Climate Change

November, 2000
 PREFACE

Papua New Guinea (PNG) signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) at the UNCED in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in June 1992. The UNFCCC was
ratified by the Government of Papua New Guinea (GoPNG) in April 1993. The signing and
ratification of the UNFCCC by the GoPNG is a testimony of our strong commitment to fulfilling
our obligations to the Convention. It also signifies the concerns that PNG has about the issues
pertaining to the likely impacts of climate change and sea-level rise.

One of the cornerstones of this climate Convention is the commitment by all Parties to take the
necessary steps and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is further
strengthened by the commitment of all Parties to submit to the Conference of the Parties (COP)
National Communication under Articles 4 and 12 of the UNFCCC.

This document has been prepared to fulfill PNG’s commitment. It contains the necessary
information about the country’s major sources of GHG emissions and sinks, vulnerability and
adaptation options together with the necessary mitigation measures, which PNG will implement
to adapt to climate change impacts and further contribute to the global efforts in reducing GHG
emissions.

The GovPNG has also gone ahead in embarking on a number of new initiatives aimed at
supporting our commitment to the UNFCCC. These included the establishment of a PNG
Greenhouse Office to develop appropriate policies and where required, necessary legislation to
address the issues relating to climate change.

Although our GHG emissions as shown in this document are relatively insignificant, we are
severely affected by the impacts of climate change resulting from global warming due to
increased GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. Faced with this eminent problem, PNG wants
to take the lead in meeting its obligation to the UNFCCC and that we hope that those country
parties whose emissions are much higher would take positive steps to do more towards reducing
their GHG emissions. The direction PNG is taking is not only for meeting our commitment to
the UNFCCC, but importantly to address the issues relating to the future of our social and
economic developments under the prevailing environment of climate change.

I am optimistic that the programmes and projects that will eventuate from this Initial National
Communication will go a long way in assisting PNG to better manage the effects of climate
change more effectively, for the well being of our environment and people of which we hold so
dearly.

Rt. Honourable, Sir Mekere Morauta Kt MP

Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea

i
 FOREWORD

Papua New Guinea is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change as it encompasses more
than 17,000 km of coastline and 600 islands, most of which are low lying, and has almost 2,000
coastal villages with a population of about 500,000 making it much vulnerable to sea level rise
and other weather-related manifestations of climate change.

Since PNG is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, the mitigation and adaptation
measures highlighted in this initial National Communication are very important. They provide
us the opportunity to pursue our efforts for mitigating GHG emissions and adaptive measures.
Such approach would also assist us in our endeavour to promote the conservation of a unique
and rich biological diversity, which has been estimated to contain between 5-7% of the global
biodiversity. Further, the measures would go a long way in assisting us to implement our
pending strategies for sustainable development of our natural resources.

The experiences we had during the 1997/98 prolonged drought has taught us a number of
lessons, especially the vulnerability of our agricultural crops (both for food and cash), water
resources and health related problems. Further, our fisheries resources, including the 2.4 million
km2 of the exclusive economic zone, although currently abundant and least less exploited, could
prove susceptible to temperature and other changes. Already we are experiencing the increasing
bleaching of our coral reefs as well as impacts of the rising sea levels.

Our terrestrial ecosystems are particularly diverse and complex and the impacts of climate
change on them are not well understood.

I am pleased to submit this initial National Communication in fulfillment of our obligation to the
UNFCCC, which have already signed and ratified.

This report has been prepared by the PNG country team on climate change with the technical
assistance from SPREP and the National Tidal Facility, Flinders University, South Australia,
with the financial assistance from the UNDP-GEF programme. The PNG country team
comprises both the Steering and Technical Committees, drawn from various government
agencies, national institutions, NGOs and the private sector.

The aim of this report is to produce document information about the country’s sources of GHG
emissions and sinks, vulnerability and adaptation as well as providing a number of adaptation
and abatement option measures for reducing GHG emissions and adapt to changing
environmental conditions resulting from climate change.

Honourable Herowa Agiwa, MP

Minister for the Environment and Conservation

ii
 CONTENTS
PREFACE……………………….………………………………………………… i
FOREWORD……………………………………………………………………… ii
CONTENTS……………………………………………………………………… iii-iv
EDITORS………………………………………………………………………… v
CONTRIBUTORS………………………………………………………………… v
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS………………………………………………………… vi
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS……………………………… vii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY………………………….…………………………… 1-3
Projections, Policies and Plans…………..……………………………………… 4
Conclusion………………………………………………………………………… 4
1. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES…….……………………………………… 5
Background………………………………………………………………………… 5
Geography………………………………………………………………………… 5-6
History…………………………………………………………………………… 6-7
Climate and Weather……………………………………………………………… 7-8
Country and Provincial Climate Trends…………………………………………… 8-9
Weather and Climate trends……………………………………………………… 9-13
Sea level rise……………………………………………………………………… 13
ENSO and Climate Variability…………………………………………………… 13-15
Population and Welfare…………………………………………………………… 15-16
Education and Training…………………………………………………………… 16
The Economy……………………………………………………………………… 16-17
Agriculture………………………………………………………………………… 17-18
Land Use Change………………………………………………………………… 18
Forestry…………………………………………………………………………… 18-19
Fish Resources…………………………………………………………………… 19-20
Coastal Resources………………………………………………………………… 21
Non renewable resources………………………………………………………… 21-22
Energy…………………………………………………………………………… 22-23
Tourism…………………………………………………………………………… 23
Transport………………………………………………………………………… 23
Biodiversity……………………………………………………………………… 24-26
2. NATIONAL INVENTORY OF GREENHOUSE GASES…………………… 27
Introduction……………………………………………………………………… 27
Inventory Process………………………………………………………………… 27-28
Greenhouse Gases………………………………………………………………… 28
Organisation……………………………………………………………………… 28-30
Emissions………………………………………………………………………… 31-32
Memo Items……………………………………………………………………… 32
Agriculture………………………………………………………………………… 32-33
Land use & Forestry……………………………………………………………… 33-34
Waste……………………………………………………………………………… 35-37
Conclusion………………………………………………………………………… 37
3. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS……… 38
Introduction………………………………………………………………………… 38
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios…………………………………… 38-40
Vulnerability……………………………………………………………………… 41-50
iii
Adaptive Measures………………………………………………………………… 50-56
Conclusion………………………………………………………………………… 57
4. MIGITATION OPTIONS - ENERGY, TRANSPORT, FORESTRY AND WASTE 58
Introduction………………………………………………………………………… 58-62
Conclusion………………………………………………………………………… 62
5. SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATION AND RESEARCH..………………………… 63
Introduction………………………………………………………………………… 63
Data Collection, systematic Observations and Institutions………………………… 63-64
Bilateral, Regional and International……………………………………………… 64
National Institutions……………………………………………………………… 64
Research Programmes……………………………………………………………… 64-66
Forestry…………..………………………………………………………………… 67
Future Research…………………………………………………………………… 68
Conclusion………………………………………………………………………… 68
6. EDUCATION, TRAINING AND AWARENESS………………..…………… 69
Introduction………………………………………………………………………… 69-70
Conclusion………………………………………………………………………… 70
7. PROJECTIONS, POLICIES AND PLANS…………………………………… 71
Introduction………………………………………………………………………… 71
Policy Development Goals in the Area of Climate Change……………………… 71-72
Trends and Policy Measures……………………………………………………… 72-73
Conclusion………………………………………………………………………… 73
8.REFERENCES…………………………………………………………………… 74-75

iv
 EDIT0RS
Chalapan Kaluwin
South Pacific Regional Environment Programme
Apia, Samoa

James Ashton
19 Murray Street, North Ward
Townsville, Queensland
Australia

Simon Saulei
Biology Department
School of Physical & Natural Sciences
University of Papua New Guinea
Papua New Guinea

CONTRIBUTORS
Martin Bonou Department of Petroleum & Energy
Chalapan Kaluwin South Pacific Regional Environment Programme
Philip Kaupa National Fisheries Authority
Idau Kopi Department of Petroleum & Energy
Kevin Luana National Weather Service
Gabriel Luluaki Division of Environment Science, UPNG
Samuel Maiha National Weather Service
Gerard Natera Office of Environment & Conservation
Job Opu Office of Environment & Conservation
Waine Pane Biology Department, UPNG
James Sabi Office of Environment & Conservation
Simon Saulei Biology Department, UPNG
Graham Sem South Pacific Regional Environment Programme
Sobi Wape Division of Environment Science, UPNG
Barnabas Wilmot Office of Environment & Conservation
Maino Virobo Office of Environment & Conservation
Katrina Solien Office of Environment & Conservation

v
 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The government of Papua New Guinea is appreciative and supportive of the initiatives taken by
the PNG country team through the Office of Environment & Conservation in bringing together
experienced nationals to work in an area of common interest and national importance. The
teams collective inputs, part of which are contained in this document, serve to guide the future
socio-economic development of our country. Of particular, in the areas that will directly or
indirectly impact on the environment’s ability to accommodate the effects of climate change.
The government extends its sincere gratitude to Drs Chalapan Kaluwin and Graham Sem of
SPREP, Dr T. Aung of the National Tidal Facility, Flinders University, South Australia, Mr
James Ashton of Townsville, Australia and UNDP-GEF for their technical and financial
assistance to the PNG Climate Change Assistance Project (PNGCCAP). Presented below are the
list of members of both the Steering and Technical Committees and the Project Co-ordinators.

PNGCCAP Co-ordinators: Dr Simon Saulei University of Papua New Guinea

Mr Kembi Watoka Office of Environment & Conservation
Steering Committee
Chairman Dr Wari Iamo Office of Environment & Conservation

Technical Committee
Chairman/Project Co-ordinator:Dr Simon Saulei
Mr Kembi Watoka
_________________________________________________________________________
Members
Steering Committee Technical Committee
Name Organisation* Name Organisation
Michael Avosa PNGNFA Vitus Ambia PNGNFA
Jaru Bisa UNDP Godfrey Angi OEC
Martin Bonou DPE Martin Bonou DPE
Tormod Burkey UNDP John Fagu Shell (PNG)
Jorgen Jensen UNDP Paul Lakani NFA
Roger Kara DPM Philip Kaupa NFA
Philip Kaupa NFA Samuel Krimbu WEI
Sakias Tameo DFA Paul Lakani NFA
Ruth Turia PNGNFA Kevin Luana NWS
The late Balthasar Wayi DAL Kas Magari UPNG
John Mukiu UOT
Titi Nagari OEC
Sam Nalish PNGFRI
Peter Noggor Chevron Niugini
Joshua Novulu UOT
Michael Siri DAL
David Timi WEI
*The full details of the organisation abbreviations are as follows: DAL – Department of Agriculture & Livestock; DFA –
Department of Foreign Affairs; DPE – Department of Petroleum & Energy; DPM – Department of Planning & Monitoring; NFA
– National Fisheries Authority; NWS – National Weather Service; OEC – Office of Environment & Conservation; PNGNFA –
Papua New Guinea National Forest Authority; PNGFRI – Papua New Guinea Forest Research Institute; UNDP – United Nations
Development Programme; UOT – University of Technology UPNG – University of Papua New Guinea;; WEI – Wau Ecology
Institute.

vi
 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
ARM Atmospheric Radiation Measurement
AusAID Australian Agency for International Development
CH4 Methane
CLICOM Climate Computing
CO2 Carbon Dioxide
CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
DAL Department of Agriculture & Livestock
ELCOM Papua New Guinea Electricity Commission
EMWIN Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation
EU European Union
FAO United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation
FIM Forest Inventory Mapping system
GCM General Circulation Model
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GEF Global Environment Facility
Gg Gigagrams
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GovPNG Government of Papua New Guinea
IOC Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
JICA Japanese International Cooperation Agency
LDS Lutheran Development Services
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
NARI National Agriculture Research Institute
NGO Non Government Organisation
N2O Nitrous Oxide
OEC Office of Environment & Conservation
PCB Polychlorinated Biphenyls
PNG Papua New Guinea
PNGBioNET Papua New Guinea Biodiversty Network
PNGCCAP Papua New Guinea Climate Change Assistance Project
PNGFRI Papua New Guinea Forest Research Institute
PNGNFA Papua New Guinea National Forest Authority
PNGNWS Papua New Guinea National Weather Service
PNGRIS Papua New Guinea Resource Information System
SOI Southern Oscillation Index
SOPAC South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission
SPC Secretariat of the Pacific Community
SPREP South Pacific Regional Environment Programme
TWP Tropical Western Pacific
UNCED United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
UNESCO United Nations education, Scientific and Cultural Organisation
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention Climate Change
UOT University of Technology
UPNG University of Papua New Guinea
WMO World Meteorological Organisation
WPWP Western Pacific Warm Pool

vii
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

BACKGROUND
This Initial National Communication contains a series of activities implemented by the
Government of Papua New Guinea (GoPNG) in consultation with communities and non-
government organisations since 1998. The Office of the Environment and Conservation (OEC)
was tasked to co-ordinate the implementation of the initiative with UNDP and the appointed Co-
ordinator to manage the project. National country teams comprising both the Steering and
Technical Committees were established with the support of government departments,
universities, and assisted by the private sector and NGOs to complete the activities and reports
under the Initial Communication.

Resources were identified from the government departments including a consultant from the
University of Papua New Guinea (UPNG) and support from SPREP, enabling the compilation of
field studies reports for the national greenhouse gas inventory for sinks and sources and
assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, variability and sea level rise. The
abatement analysis was conducted, but due to insufficient and unavailable of data, only an
assessment of potential mitigative measures were carried out instead.

The completion of the PNG Initial National Communication is a product of the efforts of the
national country teams and guidance provided by SPREP. Financial assistance was obtained
through the Global Environment Facility (GEF) administered by UNDP and implemented
through the OEC. In addition, the GoPNG co-financed this activity as part of its commitment to
the UNFCCC obligations.

The Initial National Communication report contains the following chapters:

1. National Circumstances
2. National Inventory of Greenhouse Gases
3. Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Options
4. Mitigation Options
5. Systematic Observation and Research
6. Education, Training and Awareness
7. Projections, Policies and Plans

National Circumstances

PNG is a country rich in natural resources, people and culture. It has a relatively large land mass
with high mountain ranges, islands and atolls, a large scattered population and a complex system
of customary land tenure. The economy is largely dominated by exports and incomes from
mining and petroleum, agriculture, forestry, fishing and, to a lesser extent, construction and
transport sectors. The broadly distributed access to the natural resource base provides for the
basic needs of people, but not necessarily real growth per person.

The rugged terrain, unique and rich biodiversity and range of environments, cultures, languages,
and the legacies of former colonial powers have heavily influenced the process of change and
development. Although biodiversity is outstanding with many species unique to PNG, much of
the land and habitats have been modified by erosion and land clearing, resulting mainly from
traditional agriculture systems and the harvesting of timber. Commercial logging is fairly
widespread throughout all regions of the country with one million hectares already logged.
About one fifth of the land in PNG is subject to inundation.

1
 As an island surrounded by the vast Pacific Ocean and the adjacent large land masses of
Australia and Asia, the climate and weather pattern of PNG is heavily influenced by excess
heating due to its proximity to the equator. Likewise, the biannual east–west circulation of warm
air masses, weather patterns of Australia and the variable topography of the country with high
mountain ranges also has an influence. In recent times, surface temperatures have increased by
about half a degree Celcius since the mid 70s, while rainfall has reduced in some areas by as
much as 15%. Nevertheless, there is still a relatively clear regional pattern of distribution. Sea
level changes of up to 30 mm per year have been directly related to El Nino Southern Oscillation
(ENSO).

National Inventory for Greenhouse Gases

The PNG Inventory for GHG has been calculated starting from 1994 using the 1996 IPCC
Guidelines provided to the country teams. While this is the first attempt to complete the GHG
Inventory, there were some deficiencies in data collection and its appropriate format for land use
changes and forestry, waste, agriculture and livestock sectors.

Due to the unique characteristics of PNG, the application of the IPCC methodology in certain
sectors created some difficulties and modification of the guidelines took place.

The GHG emissions for PNG are:

• Carbon Dioxide 1,553.57Gg

• Methane 4.27Gg
• Nitrous Oxide 12.2 Gg

The results suggest that these are relatively small per capita emissions and therefore, any
reductions of these levels are practically insignificant.

The results of this work has clearly identified the need for improvement in the IPCC Guidelines,
(using of emission factors), collection of data for future GHG to centralised in the most
appropriate institution, more education and training on understanding the GHG interactions
between forestry, land use and soils.

Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Options

The natural environments of the country have developed a capacity over the years to adjust to
human activity and changes to the climate. However, in the past few decades, the rapidly
changing climate patterns, increasing population growth and intensity and levels of uses of
natural ecosystems may affect the ability of these systems to respond to such change.

PNG has already been buffeted by extreme weather and climate events such as those brought
about by the El Nino in 1997/98 with further changes in temperatures and sea level rise predicted
over the next 100 years. These events will lead to inundation of low lying inland and coastal
areas, including the atoll islands, bleaching and loss of coastal defences. Loss of wetlands,
changes to the fisheries, forestry and agriculture sectors, alteration to water resources and land
use practices and impacts on health, particularly vector borne diseases such as Malaria other
related water and air borne disease are also expected.

2
In general, the range of adaptation strategies to minimise and adjust to the impacts of climate
change do not need extensive new interventions, but rather by enhancing current practices.
However, the ability of the country to adapt to climate change is a function of a range of
institutional, technological and cultural factors, which will need a fundamental shift attributed to
the importance of sound management practices and mainstreaming of environmental
considerations at planning and policy levels.

Mitigation Options for Energy, Transport, Forestry and Waste

The GHG inventory results underline the importance for the government to give priority attention
for reducing the emission of greenhouse gases from the following sectors: energy, transport,
forestry and waste to achieve economic and environment sustainability. The need for promoting
renewable sources of energy, review current mitigation policies, create subsidies for transport
systems and increase awareness and education are some important options. Table 4.1 provides a
wide range of important mitigation options for the country to closely examine and develop
appropriate program of actions.

Systematic Observations and Research

Reducing the uncertainty of science, impacts, adaptation and mitigation options of climate
change is a challenge, especially when the country is already dealing with the presence of
climate variability, sea level rise and extreme events.

The need for national research institutions in collaboration with international organisations to
deal with any surprises that climate change, coupled with climate variability would impact on the
economy, environment and people should be encouraged.

Education, Training and Awareness

While, literacy levels and the educational status of people is fairly low, training to increase the
competency, skills and knowledge of people has been a priority for successive governments.
These include using new scientific methodologies and techniques to calculate GHG emissions
from sinks and sources from various sectors, assessing climate change vulnerabilities and
adaptation options and raising community awareness on the impacts of climate change and
variability. Training institutions from UPNG, University of Technology (UOT), University of
Waikato in New Zealand, National Tidal Facility, Flinders University, South Australia and
SPREP can contribute positively to capacity building in this area.

The climate change, variability and extreme events have potential impacts on the socio-
economic and environmental well-being of the nation and its people. However, in the area of
awareness, capacity building and human resources development to address this area in an
integrated approach has not been well address and therefore, must be given priority.

Educational institutions need to incorporate climate change, variability and sea level rise into
their curriculum and should be given a priority with appropriate financial support.

3
 PROJECTIONS, POLICIES AND PLANS

The current legislative base of PNG provides for environmental planning measures and codes of
practice to be included as an integral part of project planning for developments with significant
environmental risk. The OEC provides policy advice and technical advisory support for the
sustainable development of key sectors such as coastal and marine ecosystems, water resources,
agriculture and forestry; health and fisheries, while implementation of policy measures has been
devolved to the provinces. Increased efforts are needed to strengthen the capacity of local
institutions and communities in dealing with climate change impacts. This will require more
effective systems and networks of extracting and sharing resources and experiences within and
between communities, towns and provinces.

CONCLUSION

The time to act to reduce the vulnerability of PNG is now. As such action will go a long way
toward reducing the magnitude of problems that may be brought about by climate change and
human activities on the environment in the future. The challenge will be to convince people of
such potential impacts and start adapting and mitigating long before the anticipated impacts
occur. This will require making adjustments to current development practices, whilst trading off
some short term economic gains, without over capitalizing or investing in high cost or badly
conceived solutions.

4
 CHAPTER 1

NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES

BACKGROUND

Papua New Guinea occupies the eastern half of the island of New Guinea; sharing a border with
the Indonesian province of West Papua (formerly Irian Jaya) to the west, Australia to the south,
the Solomon Islands to the east and the Federated States of Micronesia to the north. Figure 1.1
depicts the mainland PNG and the surrounding islands demarcated into the 19 provinces.

Figure 1.1 Map of Papua New Guinea & Provinces

It has four large islands (Manus, New Ireland, New Britain and Bougainville) and some 600
smaller islands, most of which are located to the east. It is a country rich in natural resources
with gold, copper, agricultural products, and recently oil and natural gas. It is also a country of
considerable biodiversity, which is estimated to comprise between 5-7% of the global
biodiversity and also regional variations on most cultural, geographical and developmental
dimensions. However, as a small economy, sustainable development is heavily influenced by
local, provincial, national and international agendas. Table 1.1 shows some key statistics of the
country’s national circumstances.

GEOGRAPHY

Papua New Guinea is a unique country in many ways. The main land has one of the most rugged
terrains in the world. There is a central mountain range which is highly dissected, with the
highest peak rising to 4,350 m (Mt. Wilhelm) and smaller islands include high volcanic
mountains and low lying coral atolls. Types of environments range from mountain glaciers to
humid tropical rainforests, swampy wetlands to pristine coral reefs. Much of the terrain is

5
characterized by steep gradients, fast flowing rivers, swamps, with some parts of the country
subject to active volcanic activities, landslides and tidal waves.

The total land area is 465,000 km2 and the exclusive economic zone is 2.4 million km2. The
country’s Exclusive Economic Zone encompasses 17,000 kilometers of coastline and almost
2000 coastal villages, with a rural population of nearly 500,000 people. Communities in PNG
have developed more than 800 languages as well as unique customs and traditions, in part due to
isolation resulting from the country’s rugged terrain.

Table 1.1: Summary information on Papua New Guinea National Circumstances in 1994

Criteria 1994

Population 3.8 million

Land area (km2) 4673,000

GDP (US$) 860.00

GDP per capita (US$) 820.00

Share of industry in GDP (%) 40.1

Share of services in GDP (%) 33.8

Share of agriculture in GDP (%) 26.1

Land area used for agriculture purposes (hectares) 6 million

Urban population as percentage of total population 16

Livestock population 23 million

Forest area (km 2) 36,420

Life expectancy at birth (years) 55

Literacy rate 52

Ninety seven percent of the country’s total land area is held by customary landowners, giving
them considerable and unique rights governing extraction of resources and compensation claims.
Only about 0.1% of the land area is classified as arable and 84% is forested, although much of
this is inaccessible. Given the difficult terrain, the diverse cultural heritage, including a complex
customary system of land tenure, the several tiers of government and the shortage of skilled
manpower, environmental and climate change management is highly complex.

HISTORY

No one knows exactly when man first set foot in PNG, but evidence of his early presence has
been found at a number of locations throughout the country. Archeological evidences have
indicated that the early occupants of the country came some 40,000-50,000 years ago and were
initially hunters and gathers until some 9,000 years ago when they settled and practiced
agriculture. The communities were isolated from each other and the outside world for a number
of centuries until the sixteenth century when the Europeans began their explorations and
colonization programmes. No actual colonization of PNG commenced until 1884 when the
Germans claimed sovereignty over the northern part of the country, and four years later the

6
British claimed the southern part and governed them as two separate colonies: German New
Guinea and British Papua.

At the end of the First World War in 1919, Australia took over the administration of both
colonies as the Trust Territories of Papua and New Guinea under the mandate of the League of
Nations. In 1942 when the Second World War came to the Pacific, the Japanese took over the
northern Territory of New Guinea until the end of the war when Australia again took control.
Australia continued its administration of both territories until 1973 when the two territories
became united and gained self-government. In 1975 Papua New Guinea gained political
independence from Australia.

The overall picture of change in PNG since independence is one of a gradual broadening of a
small, fragmented economy, based on natural resource production. Today, after 25 years of self
rule, the major pressures being exerted on the environment are accelerated population growth
and the extraction of natural resources to provide for the physical and growing needs of the
country.

The progression from an economy based on complex farming and subsistence systems to a
formal capitalistic economy over the last 100 years has seen rapid change throughout many parts
of the country.

CLIMATE AND WEATHER

INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE AND WEATHER ON PAPUA NEW GUINEA.

The oceans and land masses surrounding the country are the key determinants of its weather and
climate. Key factors, in order of significance, are:

(i) Excess heating due to incoming solar radiation at the equator where the ocean-
atmosphere interactions provide the favorable moisture source for abundant
precipitation typical of tropical environments.

(ii) Year to year variability of the tropical east- west or walker circulation. PNG lies
at the heart of the region where the warm air rises and flows eastwards in the
upper troposphere to subside in the eastern pacific high pressure system and then
westwards in the surface layers across the tropical pacific ocean. In so called El
Niño years this pattern is disrupted, the central and eastern pacific warm ("warm
pool") and the main area of ascent associated with cloud and high rainfall moves
to the central Pacific.

(iii) Location, just north of the Australian continent. Despite its tropical location and
expected deep tropical weather, the south coasts of the mainland are actually dry
over the period corresponding to the Southern Hemisphere winter.

The prevailing southeast trade winds during the months June to October act as a medium for dry
air movement responsible for dry conditions over this period. The influence of this southeast
trade winds gradually fade towards the equator where deep tropical weather dominates. Over the
remaining months from December – April, which correspond to the southern summer, the major
influences are the northwest monsoons originating in Asia. This airflow transports moist humid
air and provides abundant moisture over the whole country, thereby enhancing precipitation over
this period. Coupled with the warm sea surfaces of the Southern Hemisphere during the period
and other factors, this is also the cyclone season. In between the two seasons are months where
the wind regimes are less dominant. These are referred to as transitional months, such as the

7
month of May immediately after the North West monsoon season and the months of October and
November just preceding the North West monsoon season or just after the south east season.

(iv) Topography including the orientation of major mountain ranges. The main island
of New Guinea lies in the west/east direction, while most of the ranges are aligned
in a NW/SE direction. Periodic diurnal shifts in the wind direction may therefore
have a real potential to alter the rainfall pattern of any given location.

The Papua New Guinea Weather Service (PNGNWS) is mandated to collect and archive data on
weather, climate change, variability and sea level rise for research, predictions, marine forecasts
and economic applications. There are 13 established meteorological observation stations network
around the country staffed with a total of 95 professional and technical officers (plus support
staff). The stations include: Port Moresby, Daru, Kiunga, Gurney (Milne Bay), Misima (Milne
Bay) Nadzap (Lae), Madang, Vanimo, Momotee (Manus), Kavieng, Tokua (Rabaul), Wewak
and Hoskins (see Figure 1.2 below). Port Moresby is the headquarters of the National Weather
Services under the Ministry of Civil Aviation. All the data and information on weather, climate
variability, change and sea level is quality controlled, and archived in the PNGNWS climate
database.

Figure 1.2 National Meteorological Network (Source: NWS)

COUNTRY AND PROVINCIAL CLIMATE TRENDS

The PNGNWS existing network is 90% aviation oriented. The data and information from the
network provide some understanding of the climate and weather from the atoll islands, to coastal
provinces and into the hinterlands. Due to limited data from the highlands region, the
temperature and precipitation patterns have been derived by extrapolating data from the southern
Papuan coasts. Furthermore, there is a popular consensus that the potential climate variability
and any changes in climate being sought in PNG are predominantly related to the ENSO
phenomenon.

TEMPERATURE

Global average surface temperature analyses indicated that the weather and climate was
changing all over the world (see Figure 1.3 IPCC, 1995), and that the issue needed more
research to improve the understanding on the science of climate change, variability and sea level
rise. This meant that the individual countries, like PNG needs to address this global challenge.
8
 Figure 1.3: Global Average Surface Temperatures (Source: IPCC, 1995)

WEATHER AND CLIMATE TRENDS

TEMPERATURE

Continuous records of maximum and minimum temperature in PNG date back to 1962, although
Port Moresby’s records began in 1939. The earliest available continuous records of temperature
in Port Moresby date back to 1945. Thereafter, other stations with continuous records began to
emerge, hence the assumed country representative temperature pattern. Figures 1.4a, b and c
illustrate some of these continuous recording trends in the country.

Figure 1.4a: Temperature trends in Papua New Guinea (Source: NWS)

TEMPERATURE TREND IN PNG(1960-1999)

1
0.8 ANNUAL MAXT

0.6 DECADAL MINT

0.4
anom(deg C)

0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

9
 Figure 1.4b: Temperature trend in Port Moresby (Source: NWS)

TEMP TREND AT PORT MORESBY(1945-1999)

1.5
ANNUAL
1
5 YR MEAN

0.5 DECADAL

ANOM(deg C)
0

-0.5

-1

-1.5
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995

Figure 1.4c: Temperature trend in Kavieng (Source: NWS)

TEMP TREND AT KAVIENG(1962-1999)

1 ANNUAL MAXTREND
0.8
5 YR MEAN MIN TREND
0.6
ANOM(deg C)

0.4

0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

In general, the rate of mean near surface temperatures warming have been relatively slower over
the southern relatively higher latitude region (0.25ºC) since the mid 70s compared to the tropical
region (0.45ºC) as represented by the Momote trend in Manus Province. Overall observed near
surface temperature trend (0.50ºC) resembles both the global and tropical Asian trend, with an
overall error of +/- 0 .15ºC.

RAINFALL

The earliest records of rainfall data for PNG date back to about 1875. Four stations operated by
the PNGNWS with the longest and highest quality data (PNG standard) are used in the analyses.
Seasonal analysis was done to determine the seasonal trends of the south coasts, which have
distinct wet and dry seasons and at the equatorial stations of Momote (Manus) and Kavieng (see
Figures 1.5a,b,c and d).

10
Figure 1.5a. Overall Rainfall trend in Papua New Guinea since 1957 (Source: NWS)

ANNUAL RAINFALL TREND IN PNG

3500

3000

2500

2000

MM
1500

1000

500

0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
YEARS

ANNUAL
DECADAL

Figure 1.5b. Rainfall Trend at Port Moresby (Source: NWS)

Rafl Trend at Port Moresby (1945-1999)

600

400

200
RAINFALL(MM)

-200

-400 ANNUAL

-600 DECADAL

-800
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Figure 1.5c: Rainfall trend at Momote, Manus Island (Source: NWS)

RAFL TREND AT MOMOTE(1951-1999)

2000
ANNUAL
1500
DECADAL
1000
RAINFALL(MM)

500

-500

-1000

-1500
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

11
 Figure 1.5d: Rainfall trend at Kavieng (Source: NWS)

RA FL TREND ATKAVIENG 1916-1999.

2000
ANNUAL
1500
10 YEAR RUN MEAN

RAFL ANOMALY (MM)

1000

500

-500

-1000

-1500

-2000

1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Individual stations show some long-term variability. For example, the Port Moresby trend
appears to indicate a possible 25-30 year rainfall variability but the length of the records doesn’t
allow for any definite conclusions. The overall annual precipitation trend shows significant
rainfall reduction in PNG over the last 30 years and appears to disregard the variability signals
inferred by individual stations.

All the individual stations consistently show decreasing rainfall trends since about the early to
mid 70’s, but none more so than the capital city whose rainfall has been reduced by up to 15%
since 1975. However, discontinuous records have not permitted the determination of any
conclusive precipitation trends in PNG in recent years.

RAINFALL VARIABILITY

Since the recordings began up to 1973, it was suggested that PNG possesses a remarkably
reliable rainfall data. One measure of this was illustrated by mapping the coefficient of variation
of annual rainfall for a 15-year standard period. This coefficient of variation expresses the
standard deviation of annual rainfall as a percentage of the mean. The map showed that virtually
the whole of the country had coefficients of less than 20% and that there was a clear regional
pattern in their distribution. The central highlands and the Sepik plains had very low variability
of less than 15%, while most of the island, coastal and lowland areas did not exceed 20%. The
only exceptions where higher values are being experienced are observed in southeast New
Britain and around Daru and eastern Papuan Islands.

The conclusions reached seemed to be related to the prevailing phase in overall rainfall pattern.
A further 25 years on, it seems that there has actually been an increase in the variability.
Nevertheless, the previous assertion on the remarkably reliable nature of PNG’s rainfall still
holds. Furthermore, it may be that the wet season rainfall could be increasing was reasonable,
although the increasing phase has since ended in the mid 80's.’From current trends it may be
inferred that the country is entering another increasing phase of wet season rainfall over the Port
Moresby Region (see Figures 1.6a and b).

12
 Figure 1.6a: Dry season rainfall trend at Port Moresby (Source: NWS)

Dry season rainfall trend in PT Moresby

400
ANNUAL
300
DECADAL
200

mm
100

-100

-200
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Figure 1.6b: Wet season rainfall trend at Port Moresby (Source: NWS)

WET SEASON RAFL TREND AT PT MORESBY(1945-1999.

600
500 ANNUAL
400
DECADAL
300
200
mm

100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

SEA LEVEL RISE

A number of tide gauges installed by the Australian government are located in Manus (Lombrum
Habour), East New Britain (Rabaul), Madang and Milne Bay (Alotau) Provinces and have been
maintained and serviced by National Tidal Facility, in Adelaide, South Australia. Sea level
trends data collected from these stations range between 5-15 years. Impacts of ENSO on relative
sea level changes are significant ranging from 20-30 mm per year during the 1994/98 period.

Much of the variability in precipitation patterns in the country correlates very well with the
ENSO phenomenon. Similar correlations are obvious with the short-term variations in sea level.
In particular, the warming and cooling phases, which are associated with anomalous decreases
and increases in sea level respectively. Observations of variations in the positive phase of dry
seasonal rainfall trends showing weaker and fewer La Niña episodes infer reduced ENSO inputs
into the sea level rise in PNG.

Tsunami and earthquakes are also important signals in the region that have influenced and
impacted on sea level rise and water levels in most coastal and island provinces. The 1998
tsunami and earthquakes in the country generated large waves and storm surges that devastated
the Aitape and Rabual coastal areas and islands displacing many coastal communities and
causing loss of lives.

13
ENSO AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY

By far the most important mechanism of climate and sea level variability in Papua New Guinea
is related to the ENSO phenomenon. Effects of the southern oscillation of both mean sea level
pressure and the sea surface temperatures show a definite correlation between the SOI and the
rainfall patterns of the southern Papuan coasts in particular. The correlation gradually fades
towards the equator with equatorial regions precipitation patterns showing marked relationships
only during the stronger phases of ENSO.

LA NINA

Current climate variability in PNG dry seasonal trends exhibit weakening La Niña episodes and
possibly turning into weak El Niño episodes, increasing the chances of drier than normal
conditions. The trend in the wet season months however, exhibits an increasing trend since about
1998, although long term data sets are needed to ascertain this assumed trend.

DROUGHT/FROSTS

Drought and frosts are generally common occurrence in the highlands of PNG and have
significant impact on the economic and environment sectors. The influence of ENSO in
catalysing the development of frost and droughts in the country is quite evident as shown by the
1997/98 prolonged drought (see Figure 1.7a,b and c).

CYCLONES

PNG lies just outside of the main Tropical Cyclone belt within the Southwest Pacific region. On
average, tropical cyclones hits the country at the rate of about one cyclone per year. Despite
PNG being a relatively free area from the cyclo-genesis compared to other neighboring areas in
the region, there is a far higher probability of tropical cyclones forming outside and tracking into
the country.

Figure 1.7a,b and c. Progressive recordings of the impact of the 1997/98 drought in PNG
(Source: CSIRO)

(a)

14
 (b)

(c)

On the research front a lot more effort remains to ascertain the most appropriate conditions for
cyclo -genesis within Papua New Guinea’s potential prone areas. Until recently, increased
probability of cyclo-genesis with cool La Nina episodes was the assumption, whilst the rationale
for the late evolution in notable cases (Tropical Cyclone Aivu in May 1989) remain to be fully
understood. The scenario over the previous two tropical cyclone seasons (1998/99 and 1999/00)
where no tropical cyclones neither formed within nor tracked into Papua New Guinea’s potential
prone areas, underlines the urgent need in the country for tropical cyclone research.

POPULATION AND WELFARE

PNG has an estimated population of 3.8 million in 1994, with a population growth rate of 2.4%,
and an estimated density of 8.6 persons per km2. This relatively low population density masks
pockets of high density areas, especially in the highlands and some parts of the islands provinces.
At this rate of increase, the population is estimated to double every 30 years (see Figure 1.8).

The population is very young with 42% under the age of 15. According to the 1994 estimates,
life expectancy is 58 years, infant mortality is 62 per 1000 live births, with an adult literacy rate
of 52% and the completion rate of primary school of only 59%. However, the poverty levels in
the country is considerably higher than in the neighboring Pacific countries with 35% of the
population falling below the poverty line, while 94% of the poor are rural based.
15
 Figure 1.8 Population: Size and Rate of Growth 1990 – 2010 (GovPNG)

Population: Size and Rate of Growth 1990 - 2010

7
Millions of People 6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year

EDUCATION AND TRAINING

High levels of literacy and strong commitment to education are solid prerequisites for
mobilization of national resources. People need to have the knowledge, skills and confidence to
take part in decision making. This right is embodied in the country’s constitution. However,
despite substantial investment in education, the educational status of the population is
comparatively low.

Throughout PNG there are 2,510 community primary and 26 International Education Agency
schools providing education for about 450,000 students. Secondary education is provided by 4
national high schools for a period of 2 years. Only about 50% of the primary students reached
secondary schools and only about 1% of age eligible students enter grade 11. There is also a
shortage of teachers and inadequate facility and financial resources. The cost of providing
elementary and secondary education is three times those of other countries in the region, while
that of university education is seven times higher.

Government and churches run six universities in the country. The student population of these
institutions totals about 6,000 students annually. Non formal education policies have also been
developed to provide support for churches, NGOs and community organizations involved in pre
schools, adult literacy classes and general awareness programs. Distance education has been
established for sometimes now and is providing significant contributions to non-formal
education.

Training to increase the competency, skills and knowledge of the population has tended to be ad
hoc, despite government policy in this area. At present, most employer agencies in the private
and public sectors are required to plan, develop, conduct, monitor and evaluate their own training
programs and activities.

THE ECONOMY

The economy is highly dualistic in nature. On the one hand, the relatively high per capita GDP is
associated with the exports and incomes generated from minerals and petroleum sectors and the
contribution of aid (see figure 1.9). On the other hand, the broadly distributed access to the

16
natural resource base provides the basic needs of people, but not necessarily real growth per
person.

Economic and social progress must be measured against the numerous constraints associated
with the history and geography of the nation. Significant economic events over the past decades
have placed heavy demands on economic management by the government. The steady but,
moderate growth of the mid 1980s was followed by a negative growth in the early 1990s as a
result of the closure of the Bougainvillea copper mine and the collapsing of the agricultural tree
crop prices.

Figure 1.9: Composition of GDP by Industry in 1995 (GovPNG, 1996)

Composition of GDP - 1995

Agriculture,
hunting, forestry
Others and fishing
28% 26%

Construction,
transport & Mining &
commerce petroleum
15% 31%

The rich natural resources, traditional culture values and generous aid have all appeared to
contribute to the development of community attitudes and a socio political system, which unduly
emphasize the distribution of income and wealth rather than their generation. About 85% of the
population, those in the transitory phase between the subsistence and cash economy, have a per
capita income of less than one third of those in the urban sector. Only 10% of the population is
employed in the formal wage sector, although the potential work force is expanding at the rate of
about 50,000 from school leavers each year, of which only a small proportion would be expected
to find work.

From 2000 onwards, substantially increased contributions are anticipated for agriculture, forestry
and fisheries sectors. Both agriculture and small micro-scale enterprise developments may
provide the best prospects for large-scale employment creation in the country.

AGRICULTURE

Agriculture is the mainstay of the PNG economy, accounting for approximately 30% of GDP
and around 13% of total export earnings. Land currently set aside for food and cash crop
production in the country accounts for about 30% of the country’s total land area. Land
suitability for tree crops, arable agriculture, pasture and irrigated rice is shown in Table 12. Land
currently in the food production cycle amounts to 30,000 km2 or 6.6% of total land area.

Cash crops such as copra, coffee, cocoa, rubber and oil palm, as well as subsistence agriculture,
based on root crops, sustain about 85% of the population. Surplus production is sold mainly in
local markets, but also in distant, domestic markets. Large amounts of vegetables and fruits are
17
produced in the Highlands, but inadequate transport and marketing infrastructure limit the supply
to high populated urban centers. Also, these crops are highly perishable and suffer from variable
product quality, resulting in high post harvest losses.

Table 1.2: Land suitability for tree crops, arable agriculture, pasture and irrigated rice.

Land Use Very High Very High to High Very High to

Moderate
Km² % Km² % Km² %
Tree Crops 7790 1.7 15460 3.3 66950 11.9

Arable 4960 1.1 21890 4.7 44220 9.4

Pasture 14710 3.1 29710 6.3 67290 14.3

Rice 11890 2.5 37980 8.1 61360 13.1

Around 8% of the farmers are wholly dependent on subsistence food production for survival.
Subsistence agriculture accounts for about 45% of total agricultural outputs and has the potential
to absorb new entrants to the labor force, provided that the social status is raised to make it more
vocationally attractive.

LAND USE CHANGE

Almost 97% of land in PNG is customary land, owned either by individuals or under some form
of clan ownership. Unfortunately, traditional landowners with short-term cash needs and desire
for development through the sale of timber have often outweighed the long term needs for
conserving their resources for future generations.

Some six million hectares are used in the rotational gardening cycle. The practice of bush fallow
cultivation leads to very complex patterns of gardens and vegetation regrowths. Commonly, five
to fifteen years of fallow will elapse before the regrowth is cleared for further food production.
Land cleared and utilized continuously or where the period of fallow is shortened for the
recovery of its previous condition may lead to soil erosion.

Of the country’s total land area, approximately 470,000 km2 or about 58% is subjected to strong
or severe erosion. Further, 18% is permanently inundated or regularly flooded. Up to 200,000
hectares are cleared annually for traditional agriculture. Between 1975 and 1996, nearly 8% of
the forested areas were logged, with a further 3% subjected to other forms of clearing, resulting
in permanent conversion of the forested areas to other land uses.

FORESTRY

There are at least five main forest types that dominate PNG landscape. These include the
lowland plains, lowland hills, lower montane forests, dry evergreen and swamp forests. Figure
1.10 provides a summary of the main types of vegetation cover and land use in 1975.

18
 Figure 1.10: Vegetation Types and Land Use in 1975 (Source: PNGRIS)

Vegetation Types and Land Use (1975)

7 8
6 Forest 1
10% 1%
5 1% 2
Woodland
4 7% 3
3 1% Savanna
4
3% Scrub
2 5
Grassland
6% 6
Mangrove
1 7
71% Land in Use 8
Bare Areas

Forest reserves cover over 36 million hectares or approximately 70% of the country’s total land
area. The sustainable harvest volume of available natural forest has been estimated at 3 million
cubic metres per annum, assuming a 40-year cutting cycle. Commercial logging for exports is
fairly widespread throughout all regions. Approximately 15 million hectares of the forests are
accessible with one million hectares already logged. From 2000 onwards, the volume of log
exports is forecast to be around 1.8 to 2 million cubic metres.

Forestry is largely a foreign dominated industry and sustainable yield management will require
careful application and monitoring of a range of legislation and policy. Forestry operations can
threaten the livelihoods of the rural residents through loss of well-developed road systems,
causing soil erosion, contaminating water supplies and loss of non-timber resources. Table 1.3
provides an overview of the main factors influencing forest loss in PNG. There are also
associated social problems that have emerged, despite agreements between the loggers and
landowners, which typically require the loggers to pay royalties to landowners and build
infrastructure such as roads, schools and rural health clinics.

FISH RESOURCES

The fisheries resources of PNG are made up of a wide variety of lagoons, reefs, deep slopes,
pelagics, and bottom species. Formal employment in the fisheries sector amounts to 1000 people.
However, until 1997 when it was made mandatory to complete log books, the vast bulk, both by
volume and value, of fish caught in PNG waters were not landed in the country, or recorded as
export, while those who catch them are not taxed on the profits they make.

19
 Table 1.3: Main factors influencing forest loss

Forest Type Main Factors

Mangroves and Swamp Forest Fuelwood collection, logging, clearance, cyclones

Coastal Forest Cash crops, portable saw mills, cyclones, introduced species

Lowland Forest Cash crops, shifting agriculture, logging, portable sawmills, cyclones,
introduced species

Semi-deciduous forest Agriculture, fire, cyclones, introduced species

Upland Forest Shifting agriculture, sawmills, cyclones and landslides

The export earnings from fishery products amount to about 1% of all total exports. Prawns,
barramundi, lobster and high value sedimentary species dominate the commercial landings of the
K12 million in annual fishery exports. The prawns, crayfish, bech-de-mer are already fished at or
above sustainable levels. There are number of small-scale commercial exploitations of giant
(Tridacna) clams, green snails, trochus, pearl oyster and bech-de-mer.

While fishing is widespread, much of it is used for local consumption. There are approximately
4000 part time artisinal fishermen. However, with no proper storage or readily available
transport networks the immediate prospects for expanding the artisinal fishing are limited.

The majority of marine-based fisheries is located on the coast and offshore waters, while inland
fisheries are mainly based on aquaculture and capture fisheries utilising more simple gear along
the rivers, lakes and oxbow lakes.

Since fresh water fish diversity is relatively very low and poor, the Fisheries Authority has been
prompted to embark on a programme for introducing and restocking certain areas of the fresh
water bodies with exotic species to enhance stocks.

Subsistence based farming of common carp in the highlands and various inland areas of coastal
provinces, like Menyamya in the Morobe Province and East New Britain. There are more than
1000 carp farmers and there is also interest in rainbow trout farming aiming at commercial
venture.

Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) has been very instrumental in promoting carp
farming to alleviate low protein intake in the inland areas with Non-Government Organizations
(NGOs) involving directly with the farmers like the Lutheran Development Services (LDS).

Tuna is the main offshore resource. Although the present annual harvest of over 250,000 tonnes
is quite large, research programs have indicated that catches of three times this quantity are
sustainable. Unfortunately, benefits to PNG are restricted to approximately K16 million in
license fees. Additional benefits to the country would accrue if the policy to gradually localise
the foreign investment proceeds, more onshore processing occurs and catches are increased to
maximum sustainable levels, as specified under the UN framework Convention on Highly
Migratory Fish Stocks, of which Papua New Guinea is a party.

20
COASTAL RESOURCES

PNG supports a plethora of coastal habitats, resources and environments including deltaic flood
plains, estuaries, tidal flats, mangroves, beaches near shore environments such as bays, lagoons,
sea grass beds, coral reefs and the offshore environment.

Of particular regional significance are the extensive and well developed mangrove systems. In
PNG there some 37 species of mangroves belonging to 20 different genera, which are associated
with the major river systems throughout the country. The most extensive of these occur along the
southwest coast associated with the Fly, Kikori and Purari River systems. Apart from benefits
such as opportunities for research, education, recreation and tourism development, mangroves
provide a variety of products of direct use to the local people including firewood, building
materials and medicines. Further, the mangrove forests are also important as major breeding
grounds for fishes.

While specific clan groups tend to own the land, in many areas, outside groups are free to go and
collect coastal resources. Consequently, large tracts of mangrove forests have been cut down to
make gardens and used for firewood. Opening up of mangrove canopies has resulted in the
establishment of short, stunted forms of some species.

Coral reefs in Papua New Guinea cover a total area of 40,000 km2. For the most part, the coral
reefs are relatively unaffected by human activities, but this largely reflects the country’s
dispersed and relatively isolated population as well as a lack of material development. Important
anthropogenic threats to PNG reefs are considered to be unsustainable fishing, including both
overexploitation and destructive practices; sediment mobilization as a result of deforestation
from forestry, agriculture, and other activities, as well as population increase and urbanization.
Localized threats include industrial pollution, oil spills, port development, land reclamation, and
ship groundings.

NON RENEWABLE RESOURCES

Both mining and petroleum sectors generate about K1 billion for the economy. Major mining
and petroleum sites are shown in Figure 1.10. The OK Tedi Mine is the major source of PNG’s
mineral resources and contributes around 50% of country’s total export earnings and also
generates substantial internal revenue and spin off commercial activities. Previously, the
production of copper and gold from the Panguna Mine on Bougainville Island and Porgera mine
in Enga Province on the mainland have also contributed significantly to PNG economy and
balance of trade. The mining industry, especially for gold and copper production, is expected to
be the largest contributor to economic growth in the coming years.

Oil and gas industry is extremely capital intensive, a conundrum arising because of the
economies of scale. From 2000 onwards, petroleum production, already at around 30 million
barrels, is expected to fall over the long term, as the capacity of existing oil fields is depleted.

A number of gas projects are currently being implemented, including the pipeline to North
Queensland, which will have a significant impact on Papua New Guinea’s macro economy.

The provision under the Mining Act 1972, which stipulates that all gold and minerals in or under
any land in the country are the property of the state is proving to be very problemic, especially
when such lands are under customary ownership. Further, mining has weak links with the rest of
the economy and the benefits to individual landowners and the rest of the population is not
always realised.

21
 Figure 1.11: Mining and Petroleum sites of Papua New Guinea (GovPNG, 1996)

ENERGY

Since independence, there has been little progress in the development of any real capacity in the
energy sector to plan and systemically develop a stable supply of energy for the country. PNG is
currently heavily dependent on fossil fuels, with petroleum products accounting for an estimated
60% of its primary energy consumption. Renewable energy, mostly hydro electricity, is
estimated to contribute less than 40% of the country's energy use.

The use of fossil fuels in the country is mostly in power generation and transportation. While
transportation is totally dependent on it, power generation is heavily weighted towards it too.
The share of fossil fuel and renewable energy in the country's power generation is 60 and 40%
respectively.

It is estimated that electricity comprises only 24 % of the total energy use in PNG. Interestingly,
46 % of this electricity is used in the capital city of Port Moresby. Annual consumption of
electrical energy has rapidly increased over the years mainly due to: i) an increase in the number
of customers from industrial to household sectors; and ii) an increase in average consumption per
customer.

The principal use of primary energy source in the country includes the following:

i. Electricity generation

The use of hydro (run by rivers) backed up with standby diesel is commonly used in the
provinces and mining sectors. In addition, co-generation (use of agricultural products; e.g. oil
palm and sugar cane) are important, but are relatively small in size.

22
ii. Transport sector

Transport accounts for approximately 60% of all imported liquid fuels into the country for
domestic consumption. Air and water transport uses approximately 20 to 10 % respectively for
all transport fuels. However, road transport is a major user of imported fuels, especially petrol
followed by diesel. Use of ethanol mixed with gasoline is a potential for future research.

iii. Industrial Heating/Cooling

Most electricity is used for air conditioning and refrigeration for all industrial, commercial
services and government institutions. In crop drying industries, especially copra, tea and coffee
there is a major swing from diesel to wood for the drying process. It has been estimated that
approximately 6 million litres of diesel has been reduced in terms of importing fuels for such
uses.

iv. Domestic Heating/Cooling

Electric hot water heating (solar) accounts for 40% of typical large residential users’ total energy
requirements. Solar generated electricity from the sun is now becoming available and affordable
in the country, especially for rural and urban areas for lighting, cooking and other household
applications. Wood is a principal cooking fuel for the low income households in both rural and
urban areas of the provinces. Development of the charcoal industry was promising in 1981, but
now has limited application in the rural areas. Kerosene consumption grew sharply in the 1970s
and is still an important energy source for cooking and lighting, especially in the rural areas.

TOURISM

The tourism industry is poorly developed, even though the country offers spectacular diving
sites, rainforest, ecotourism opportunities, scenery, wildlife, and a diversity of cultures. In 1993,
Papua New Guinea attracted about 14,000 tourists, compared with Fiji’s 300,000 tourists.
Approximately, 30,000 PNG residents travel overseas as tourists annually. The main focused
markets for tourism in PNG are Australia, Europe, USA and Japan. Tourism tends to be more
concentrated in the urban centers, although ecotourism ventures have been set up in the more
remote and isolated rural areas.

TRANSPORT

Transport services rely heavily on roads, inter island and coastal shipping for freight transport,
and on air transport for long distance passenger movements. There is no railway. Developments
in the transport infrastructure are largely attributed to mining and government policies.

Currently, there are about 25,000 kilometers of road in the country, out of which the national and
provincial roads cover about 7,000 kilometers (see Figure 1.11). For the many small, dispersed
and isolated population centers, the difficult terrain has severely constrained the provision of
road based services, especially to rural areas of the country. Such constraints are of major
concern to the government and it’s people since the opportunities for selling agriculture
surpluses domestically depend crucially on access to markets, the worthiness of the roads being
all weathered and costs being at reasonable levels.

23
BIODIVERSITY

The environments and biota of PNG are extremely rich, diverse and unique. It is estimated that
the country probably harbors between 5 - 7% of the worlds’ biodiversity, which is remarkable
given that the land mass of Papua New Guinea is less than 1% of the worlds’ total land area.

The country’s biota has biogeographic similarities to West Papua, the Solomon Islands, and
northern Australia. The island is large enough to host many centers of endemism with more than
6,789 endemic species of plants and animals, the largest of any Pacific island.

Figure 1.12: Existing road system of PNG.

The flora and fauna is distinctive, with predominately Indo-Malayan ties, but also showing
strong Australian affinity owing to its Pleistocene land connections. On a regional level, three
biogeographical provinces can be distinguished, namely: New Guinea, Bismarck Archipelago
and the Solomon Islands.

Major vegetation types include coastal vegetation, mangrove forests, grasslands, swamps,
Savannah, monsoon forests, lowland tropical forests, lower montane forests, upper montane
forests, subalpine forests and alpine vegetation. The whole of New Guinea, of which PNG is a
part, has 1,465 plant genera. Floristic diversity is highest in the lowland rainforests and
decreases with increasing altitude. Globally important centers of plant diversity include the
Kiunga region, Mount Wilhelm, Owen Stanley ranges and Bowutu Mountains. Of these sites,
only Mount Wilhelm is within a protected area network. Most threatened plants identified to date
are those endemic to the country. A summary of PNG biodiversity is provided in Table 1.4.

In general, the number of species of fauna diminishes with increasing altitude. However,
between 500 and 1000m altitude, with variable topography and precipitation, diversity increases.
Avifauna is particularly rich, with a total of 740 species recorded for PNG, of which 76 species
are endemic. They include the worlds smallest and some of the worlds largest parrots, the
largest pigeons, all of the world’s three species of cassowaries, and more than two thirds of the
known birds of paradise.
24
 Table 1.4: Species Richness of Key Biota

Group Status
Viruses, Bacteria and Algae Poorly documented

Fungi 2,390 species listed

Protozoans Terrestrial Protozoans almost entirely unstudied

Plants Vascular plants include 15,000 to 20,000 species of

ferns and flowering plants. Orchids are particularly
diverse with well over 3000 species.

Invertebrates 300 species of coral identified. Very high species

richness of sea pens, nudibranchs and crustacea.
300,000 species of insects estimated.

Fish More than 3000 fishes in the region, including over

300 found in freshwater.

Amphibians Frogs well represented with about 197 species

described.

Reptiles 13 species of turtles and tortoises, approximately

195 species of lizards, 98 species of snakes and 2
species of crocodiles.

Birds A total of 762 species of birds recorded of which

405 are endemic.

Seagrass 50 species of seagrass recorded.

Mammals Relatively impoverished although 71 species of
marsupials, 2 species of monotremes and 75
species of bats have been recorded from the New
Guinea area.

The estuarine and coastal environments are endowed with dugong, whales, dolphins, birds,
turtles, crocodile, fish and many invertebrate species such as molluscs, echinoderms and
crustaceans. To date, about 300 species of coral and well over 3,000 species of marine fishes,
have been identified. The species richness of sea pens, nudibranchs and crustaceans may be the
highest in the world. By contrast, the freshwater fauna is poor, but fish, crayfish, turtles and
crocodiles are important components in the lower and middle reaches of rivers and some lakes.

25
 Figure 1.13. Biodiversity Priority Areas (Source: PNG Biorap)

Information on the rate and intensity of decline of natural resources is scanty. Many organisms,
particularly marine, live in environments that are difficult to access and those organisms that
have been collected have yet to be subjected to modern taxonomic analyses. Consequently, the
knowledge of biodiversity in the country is limited. Recent work has also indicated that much of
the country has yet to be explored in terms of the biodiversity. Figure 1.13 shows the
biodiversity priority areas , which have yet to be determined.

26
 CHAPTER 2

NATIONAL INVENTORY OF GREENHOUSE GASES

INTRODUCTION

One of the cornerstones of the UNFCCC is the commitment by all Parties to take the necessary
steps and measures to reduce GHG emissions (Article 2). This is further strengthened by the
commitment of all Parties to submit to the Conference of the Parties national inventories of
anthropogenic emissions of GHG sources and sinks (Article 4). The main objective of the GHG
inventory is to identify and evaluate the anthropogenic emissions of GHGs and to critically
review and draw lessons from the initial inventory experience. Particular reference is directed
towards the design, implementation and improvement of future inventories as well as
interventions that may be necessary for GHG abatement over the long term.

INVENTORY PROCESS

The Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories was used to
undertake the inventory and a "reference approach" was followed. It is based on the information
sought from a number of sources from government, non-government and private sectors. The
data were collected by a team of national experts, who have been trained on the inventory
methodology. The inventory covers emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4) and
oxides of nitrogen (N2O) as guided by Decision 10/CP.2. The reference year for these
inventories is 1994.

For PNG the inventory only covers four of the six categories of emission sources and sinks,
namely, energy, industrial processes, land use and agriculture. There is no existing methodology
for estimating emissions from solvents and other product use and therefore were left out of the
inventory. Limited data are available for emissions and removals from land use change and
forestry and waste and thus being left out of the inventory. The reported emission figures thus
should be taken as “work in progress” since only three categories of emissions are reported here.
Table 2.1 provides a summary of the results of the GHG inventory on the four sources of GHG
emissions.

Table 2.1 Greenhouse gas inventory summary for 1994. All data are presented in gigagrams (Gg).

Greenhouse Gas CO2 CH4 N2O

Source/sink categories
All Energy 947.57 X X

Industrial Processes 193.0 X X

Agriculture 4.27 12.20

Land Use Change & 413.0 X X

Forestry
Totals 1,553.57 4.27 12.20

The results indicate that carbon dioxide is the most dominant GHG with a calculated value of
1,553.57Gg followed by nitrous oxide with a value of 12.20 Gg and methane with 4.27Gg.
However, the results also reflect an underestimation of the emissions of GHGs in PNG.

27
DATA GAPS

There exists serious data gaps in emissions inventory and these are discussed in this section. Not
all energy sources have been accounted for in this inventory, which only covered liquid fuels.
Emissions from waste, land-use change and forestry and solvents need to be included in the
inventory so that comprehensive emissions total can be obtained. Agriculture emissions mainly
focused on domestic livestock, but no attempt has been made to estimate emissions from soil
cultivation and from burning of forests and grasslands, since there are no data from such sources
or if available were not accessible.

Given these limitations with the data the inventory as presented can only be regarded as "work-
in-progress". It is therefore anticipated that the next inventory for the second national
communication will be much improved by addressing these data gaps. The estimation of
emissions and removals from land use change and forestry will be critical due to its potential for
offsetting GHG emissions from other categories of sources.

GREENHOUSE GASES

Petroleum is a major export earner for the country and at the same time PNG continues to import
fossil fuel to meet its energy requirements. Natural gas reserves have been identified and large
potential for its financial gains with the large emissions of carbon dioxide is expected. The
main source of fuel combustion is derived from energy and transformation industries, transport,
and residential sectors.

As indicated in the Table 2.1, the focus of the GHG inventory centred on Carbon Dioxide (C02),
Methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N20).

SOURCES OF DATA

Table 2.2 provides the information on the ministries and departments, private institutions, non-
government organisations which provided time, resources and data to the Climate Change
Country Team to enable them to calculate the GHG gas emissions levels in each of the sectors.
The data and information used to complete the PNG GHG Inventory were collected from each
sector and verified before recorded.

ORGANISATION

The National Inventory has been organised into four parts corresponding to the four major
source sections as described in the IPCC Guidelines (1996). Due to lack of data collected for
these two major sections namely; emissions from soil cultivation (agriculture) and from burning
of forests and grasslands and solvents and other product use, no emission estimates have been
determined. In addition, there is no methodology available as yet to calculate the emissions from
the solvents and other product use.

The IPCC Guidelines (1996) are:

Energy Activities

• Fuel combustion activities

• Fugitive emissions
• Memo items (international bunkers)

28
Industrial Processes

Solvent and other Products Use

Agriculture

• Enteric fermentation
• Manure management
• Agriculture soils

Land use Change and Forestry

• Managed lands
• Grassland conversion
• Managed Forestry
• Clearing Forestry

Waste

• Solid waste disposal on land

• Waste water handling.

29
 Table 2.2 Sources of Data

Source of data Type of data collected

Ministry of Forestry Land-use, vegetation/forestry, maps, statistics

Ministry for Civil Aviation (National Weather Climate variability, extreme events, rainfall, models
Office)
Ministry of Mining Statistics on mining
Ministry for Petroleum & Energy Statistics on fossil fuels and energy

Ministry for Agriculture and Livestock Maps on land-use, climate monitoring research,
livestock and agriculture data sets

Ministry for Fisheries Marine research programmes, fish catch data,

economic information, coral reefs, marine and
fisheries management policies
Office of the Environment and Conservation Water and waste data and research. Maps of
terrestrial and marine resources (biodiversity). Map
info database and environmental Policies.

Ministry of Transport Shipping and transportation database and policies.

Information of use of fossil fuels by marine sectors.

University of Papua New Guinea and University of Data base on forestry and waste/pollution and
Technology research opportunities on mining, water, fisheries,
forestry and modeling of scenarios.

Electricity Commission (ELCOM) Data on types of energy used in the country, pricing
and technology information.

National Forestry Institute Data and research information on national forestry

programmes. Growth rates and mitigation options
identified.

World Wild Fund and Nature Conservancy (NGOs) Data base on marine biodiversity and forestry
activities and research.

UNCERTAINTY AND LIMITATIONS OF EMISSION ESTIMATES.

The uncertainties and limitations as per IPCC Guidelines will be covered in this chapter.

30
EMISSIONS

ENERGY

Carbon dioxide emissions for PNG were mostly derived from the liquid fossil fuel-petroleum.
Table 2.3 shows C02 emission from the main liquid types.

Table 2.3. Sectoral C02 (Gg) emission based on fuel types

Fuel Type Carbon Dioxide emission (Gg C02)

Crude Oil 0.00

Orimulsion 0.00

Natural Gas liquids 0.03

Gasoline 138.20

Jet Kerosene 0.00

Other Kerosene 120.00

Gas/Diesel Oil 575.67

Residual fuel oil 0.00

LPG 7.44

Lubricants 0.00

Other oil 105.39

Total 947.57

The total amount of GHG for the energy sector was 947.57Gg from carbon dioxide (C02)
representing approximately 61% of total GHG emissions. Of these liquid fuels gas, diesil, oil and
gasiline and other Kerosene, are major sources of carbon dioxide emissions in PNG.

POWER GENERATION.

PNG has become increasingly dependent on commercial energy in the past decades. Commercial
energy consumption (especially petroleum products) grew from 44% in 1970s to 62% in 1980
and continues to grow at a steady rate. The increase in oil consumption was due mainly to use of
oil for power generation and continuous operation of the gas turbines in Port Moresby. However,
the planned gas project between Australia and PNG to commence after 2002 and a gas line to
Port Moresby for industrial use/power generation may have significant reduction on oil
consumption for power generation in the country

TRANSPORT

During 1981 transport accounted for 59% of all imported liquid fuels into the country for
domestic consumption. Air and water transport used 20% and 11% respectively for all transport

31
fuels. It has been estimated that these figures have risen to 25 % and 15% for both sectors. Road
transport is the major user of imported fuels, especially. Petrol is the major source of imported
fuel used by road transport followed by diesel.

Attempts to collect data from the responsible ministries and line departments proved difficult.

MEMO ITEMS

INTERNATIONAL BUNKERS

International bunkering for the GHG from international marine and aviation is important for the
country to note and understand for future international reporting. Two major suppliers and
distributers of gas/diesel/jet gas in the country; Shell (PNG) and Mobil, have access to these
important data and information. However, these have not been included in this national
calculation.

AGRICULTURE

Agriculture is the main economic backbone of PNG accounting for 13% of total export earnings.
Land currently set aside for food and cash crop production in the country accounts for about 30%
of the total land area. Land suitability for tree crops, arable agriculture, pasture and irrigated rice
is important (see Table 1.2). Land currently under food production cycle amounts to 30,000 km2
or 6.6% of total land area.

Cash crops such as copra, coffee, cocoa, rubber and oil palm, as well as subsistence agriculture,
based on root crops, sustain about 85% of the population. Large amounts of vegetables and fruits
are produced in the Highlands, but inadequate transport and marketing infrastructure limit the
supply to the larger populace urban centers. These crops are highly perishable and suffer from
variable product quality, and high post harvest losses.

Around 8 % of the farmers are wholly dependent on subsistence food production for survival.
Subsistence agriculture accounts for about 45% of total agricultural output and has the potential
to absorb new entrants to the labor force, providing that the social status is raised to make it more
vocationally attractive.

Livestock mainly pigs, cattle, poultry, goats, horses and sheep are raised in the country mainly
for national and domestic use mainly. There are more than four large private companies involved
in poultry ventures. The Department of Agriculture’s National Agriculture Research Institute
(NARI) and FAO are the main institutions involved in agricultural research initiatives in the
country.

Methane levels are relatively low compared to some countries of similar size in the Pacific
region. The results in Table 2.4 show emissions of methane from the range of animals farmed in
the country. The Climate Team believes that the total CH4 emissions are of low value, but this do
not reflection a true picture of the PNG's potential. Some difficulties were encountered in
collecting data from the most important departments, this included the data not being centralised.
Many institutions around the country were involved in data collections, but the information were
not in the correct format for the GHG Inventory studies.

32
 Table 2.4: Methane emission from Livestock

Livestock type Population Emission Factor Emission from CH4

(000s) Manure Manure Emission(Gg)
Fermentation Management Total
Poultry 20 0.018 0.361.0 0.0004

Dairy cattle 0.589 33 19.40 0.06

sheep 3.116 0.21 0.65 0.02
Non-dairy 62.88 7 440.16 3.77
Swine 19.072 20 381.44 0.4

Total 4.27

LAND USE CHANGE

Almost 97% of PNG is customary land, owned either by individuals or under some form of clan
ownership. Thus for any economic activities to be sustained must involve some form of
partnership with traditional landowners. Approximately 6 million hectares are used in the
rotational gardening cycle. The practice of bush fallow cultivation leads to very complex patterns
of gardens and vegetation regrowths. Commonly, five to fifteen years of fallow will elapse
before the regrowth is cleared for further food production. Land cleared and utilized
continuously has lead to soil degradation.

Fifty-eight percent of the total area of the country is subject to strong or severe erosion. Further,
18% is permanently inundated or regularly flooded. Up to 200,000 hectares are cleared annually
for traditional agriculture systems. Between 1975 and 1996, nearly 8% of the forest areas were
logged with a further 3% being subjected to other forms of clearing, resulting in permanent
conversion of the forested areas to other land uses.

The determination of the GHG emission from landuse changes is not fully understood in the
country, especially for evaluating nitrogen and methane gas emissions interactions between
land/soil and forestry or agriculture. More work is required to adequately cover this area for the
next national communication.

FORESTRY

There are at least five main forest types that dominate PNG’s landscape. These include lowland
plains, lowland hills, lower montane forests, dry evergreen and swamp forests. Figure 1.10
provides a summary of the main types of vegetation cover and land use in 1975. Approximately
75% of the country is forested, of which more than half is on steep land.

Forest reserves cover over 36 million hectares or approximately 70% of the country’s total land
area. The sustainable harvest volume of available natural forest has been estimated at 3 million
cubic metres per annum, assuming a 40-year cutting cycle. Approximately 15 million hectares of
the forests are accessible with one million hectares already logged. From 2000 onwards, the
volume of log exports is forecast to be in the vicinity of 1.8 to 2 million cubic metres.

Forestry operations can threaten the livelihoods of the rural residents through loss of well
developed road systems, causing soil erosion and contaminating water supplies, as well as loss of
non timber resources (see Figure 1.10).

33
During the 60's and 70s major forest research activities were focussed on managed forest
programmes, especially for potential plantation species. To date relatively little forest plantation
research has been carried out due mainly to financial constraints and the shift on emphasis
towards natural forest management.

Approximately 59,000 ha plantation forest has been established in the country, of which 33%
comprises of exotic species-principally Pinus and Eucaplytus. Of these, the government owns
11,000 ha, mainly the coniferous plantations at Wau and Bulolo areas in the Morobe Province.

Table 2.5 provides an assessment of the Carbon uptake from the changes in the plantation sector.
The total Carbon uptake is calculated at 112,546.68 ktc, with an estimated annual removal of
413. 0 Gg.

Table 2.5: Carbon uptake by forests.

Plantations Area (kha) Annual Annual Carbon Total

Growth Biomass Fraction of Carbon
Rate Increment Dry Matter Uptake
(tdm/ha) (ktdm) Increment
(ktc)
Acacia spp 1.699 15 25.49 0.5 12.24

Eucalyptus spp. 4.61 14.5 66.85 0.5 33.42

Tectona grandis 3.052 8 24.42 0.5 12.21

Pinus spp. 6.536 11.5 75.16 0.5 37.58

Pinus caribaea - 10 - -

Mixed Hardwoods 1.527 6.8 10.38 0.5 5.19

Mixed Fast Growing 10.56 12.5 132.00 0.5 66.00

Hardwoods
Mixed Softwoods 6.545 14.5 94.90 0.5 47.45

Other Forests (Moist) 32002.7 6.8 217,618.36 0.5 108,809.18

Other Forests (Seasonal) 1062.9 6.8 7,227.72 0.5 3,618.86

Other Forests (Dry)

Total 33084.232 112,546.68

34
WASTE

Traditionally and culturally, the people have strong ties with their coastal environments. Poor
waste disposal (solid, liquid and hazardous) practices definitely have negative impacts on both
freshwater and coastal marine environments affecting public health, ecosystems and the
economy of the country. Greater efforts and resources are required at national, provincial and
individual levels to better manage waste disposal and to minimise the impacts on the fragile
environment of the country.

CURRENT WASTE MANAGEMENT PRACTICE

Generally, there has been a lack of sound waste management in areas of solid, liquid and
hazardous wastes in PNG due to a number of factors including problems with legislation,
policies, infrastructure, planning, public awareness, and both human and financial resources to
implement sound waste management practices throughout the country.

Methane emission originates from several sources, including anaerobic decomposition of organic
wastes in solid waste sites, in sludge and residual solid by products. Calculation of methane
emission from solid and liquid waste sites proved to be difficult, mainly through lack of data and
its format. The sections below will briefly discuss the constraints and data gaps in determining
the levels of methane and nitrous oxide emissions.

i. Solid Wastes

Solid waste management problems have escalated over the past few decades as a result of
population growth and rural populations shifting to urban centres seeking improved life style,
employment and educational opportunities. This has further overloaded existing waste disposal
systems that were already struggling to cope in the first place. Also the type and volume of
wastes generated in the country have become more abundant and complex as demands for
imported canned, plastic-wrapped, or bottled goods have increased. The dumping of wastes from
mining activities into the rivers and the ocean has also increased substantially.

The search for environmentally safe and socially acceptable areas for disposal of wastes is an
unending problem faced by all the towns and villages. No one wants a dump located in his or her
“backyard”. All too often mangrove areas, oceans, rivers and/or beaches become landfills by
default. For example in Port Moresby city, two landfill sites at 6 Mile and Baruni cater for daily
domestic waste generated from a population of more than 300,000 people. It is estimated that the
average daily waste from the commercial, domestic and industrial varied between 0.21- 0.4Kg
per person per day, of which 53% is biodegradable.

Due to the lack of data available from the private sector and related government departments,
quantification of total emission of methane from solid waste has not been possible.

ii. Hazardous Wastes

Hazardous or special wastes are dangerous to the people and have harmful effects on the
environment, such as shallow groundwater lenses and marine resources. Thus special care and
practices are required to deal with these types of waste, which include the following: batteries
(vehicle, and small household), waste oil, pesticides, medical waste, paint and solvent, industrial
waste (timber treatment and processing, mining processing), transformers (PCB), and septic tank
cleanings.

35
Ideally, these wastes should be collected, stored and removed from the country for safe disposal
or recycling overseas. However there are substantial costs and logistical problems in this
approach. Export of wastes must be in accordance with the requirements of the Basel Convention
(Convention on the Control of Trans-boundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their
Disposal) and the Waigani Convention (Convention to Ban the Importation into Forum Island
Countries Hazardous and Radioactive Waste and to Control the Trans-boundary Movement and
Management of Hazardous Wastes within the South Pacific Region).

There are three aspects to the management of hazardous wastes in the country. Firstly there is the
problem of dealing with accumulations of waste or unwanted chemicals or hazardous materials
which are in storage in the absence of any organised disposal programme. Secondly there are the
situations where contamination of soil or groundwater has occurred. This may be due to
accidental spillage and leakage of stored chemicals or deliberate burying in an attempt to dispose
of such materials. These first two situations are in large part, the legacy of unsatisfactory waste
and hazardous material management in the past.

The third aspect of hazardous waste and chemicals management is to take a more positive view
and to ensure procedures and structures are in place to ensure that no more waste accumulations
or contaminated sites are allowed to develop as a result of current activities. Unfortunately, the
“out of sight/out of mind” approach has generally been taken. For example, the burning of
medical waste is commonly practised in country.

iii. Liquid Wastes

Unfortunately there is a lack of sufficient available data to assess typical characteristics of

wastewater produced in the country.

Based on the country’s estimated population using various methods of treatment an estimated
concentrations for each characteristic, such as biological oxygen demand, nitrogen content and
phosphorous are calculated as follows: 5,665.0; 3,106.0 and 374.0 tons per year respectively.
The country's wastewater treatment plants indicated that industrial wastes were not allowed into
their collection systems. Major industries in the country include edible oils, oil export and
production, oil palm production, agricultural and livestock processing, sugar refining, fish
canning and beer brewing. Most industrial operations provide some sort of treatment and
disposal systems, but again there is little information available, plus a lack of discharge
monitoring system. Potential economic opportunities exist with expanding industrial growth.
This growth comes with increased industrial waste types and volumes that will have to be dealt
with to protect the environment. More control over discharges will therefore need to be exercised
by government authorities to minimise adverse effects to the environment.

36
Mining activities in PNG all produce wastewater that is potentially dangerous to the environment
if not treated appropriately. Each mining operation should have its own treatment facilities and
must be continually monitored.

Calculation of nitrous oxide emissions from human and animal waste management systems has
not been possible.

CONCLUSION

There is still a lot of gap in data from the following sectors; land use, livestock, agriculture,
bunker fuels calculations and waste.

Although reduction of the emission will not impact the average person, significant savings on
economic, environment and health of the country would be gained if the government and private
sectors changed their attitudes as well as policies to seriously place renewable energy as priority
program of actions. A range of mitigation options is discussed under mitigation in chapter 4.

37
 CHAPTER 3

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS

INTRODUCTION

The natural environment throughout PNG is extremely fragile and highly vulnerable to both
natural and human impacts. During the last 50 years or so, increasing pressures on the resources
are intensifying the country’s exposure to extreme events such as natural hazards like cyclones,
droughts, earthquakes and tsunamis. In addition to these threats and pressures to the
environments of PNG are the expected changes that may arise from climate change and climate
variability, which will likely further exacerbate these impacts and deplete the resources that are
most essential for basic life support systems.

Vulnerability assessment is needed to identify the degree of future risks induced by climate
change, variability and sea level rise on the vulnerable areas of the economy and to help
determine how to respond to these threats. One form of response is adaptation which aims to
adjust or cope with the changes brought about by climate change.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS

RISING VULNERABILITY TO EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY.

Climate change could pose problems in the future for the GoPNG as impacts from weather and
climate extreme events, which are now being experienced. For example, the 1978, 1981/1982
and 1997/1998 El Nino events significantly devastated the country's economy.

From current baseline data and information about the country’s weather, climate trends and
inter-annual variations in sea level rise, the following is the summary:

Both the temperature and precipitation trends in PNG resemble the global and regional trends
respectively;

The increases in the mean near surface temperatures especially over the last 25 years appear to
be above the global mean (see Figure 3.1);

The increase in the mean minimum temperatures has been greater than that of the mean
maximum temperatures since 1970;

The detection of climate change is still uncertain as it is based on the current data sets which
have a short period of observations;

The dry seasonal patterns exhibit weakening La Niña impacts during dry season and that the
weakening is eventually influencing the weak dry conditions. This implies longer decadal phases
of dry conditions;

There’s an obvious need for a widespread climate network to effectively monitor climatic
variables unique to this part of the world. This may include careful observation of the northwest
monsoonal flows necessary for the detection of the onset of the El Niño episodes;

There is already a relative sea level rise around the country, but this is strongly influenced by El
Nino and La Nina signals (see Photographs 1.1 – 1.3).

38
There has bean an increase of 0.5ºC in the mean near-surface temperatures, but since the mid
1970’s, much of the increase could be attributed to the rapid increase in minimum temperatures
rather than the traditional maximum temperatures.

Figure 3.1: Temperature Trends (Source: NWS)

TEMPERATURE TREND IN PNG(1960-1999)

0.9 ANNUAL MAXT

0.7
DECADAL MINT
0.5

anom(deg C)
0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.3

-0.5
-0.7
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL SCENARIOS

Some works are underway to develop the specific climate change and sea level rise scenarios for
the country, but these are not available. However, the IPCC has developed two general
circulation models (GCMs) which are applicable to PNG's conditions as shown in Table 3.1.
The scenarios ask "what if" question about the effects of climate change and sea level rise and
how sensitive the country would respond to the changes.

Table 3.1: Temperature and Rainfall Scenarios

GCM pattern 2020 2050 2100
Temp. oC Rainfall % Temp. oC Rainfall Temp. oC Rainfall
% %
HADCM2 0.6 0.4 1.2 2.2 0.8 1.5

CSIRO9M2 5.1 0.1 10.3 18.9 -0.1 -0.2

This table shows the IPCC ‘best guess’ (middle) and ‘worst (high emission) case’ scenarios of
the projected temperature and sea level rise. Both models suggest future temperature rise of
between 0.4oC to 2.2oC and indicate that there could be significant temperature increases.

From the current work in the Pacific and data sets from the country, there may be high rainfall
intensity events and prolonged droughts. The dominance of El Nino- Southern Oscillations
(ENSO) events recently being experienced in the country (1997/98) and the Pacific region could
influence the modeling results.

Sea Level Rise Scenarios

The sea level rise scenario calculations for PNG are based on the IPCC Second Assessment
Report as data sets from regional relative sea level rise, local effects, ocean circulation, salinity,
wind and pressure patterns are not available.

39
 Photograph 1.1. Rising sea level causing denudation of coastal vegetation and loss
of land for island communities (Source: S. Saulei)

Table 3.2 is determined from the best guess and high estimates of GHG emissions. The figures
give an indication of what might happen over the next century based on the middle and worse
scenarios of sea level changes. These are consistent with the temperature projections. Both
results show significant increase in global sea level rise over the next century. However, for the
Pacific region and PNG with short data sets from the monitoring stations, the influence of ocean
dynamics, local noise signals, atmospheric pressures, and ENSO may effect the relative sea level
rise results.

Table 3.2. Sea level rise scenarios

Scenarios 2020 2050 2100

IS92a (best guess) 80mm 200mm 490mm

IS92e (high) 160mm 400mm 940mm

40
VULNERABILITY

COASTAL AND MARINE ENVIRONMENTS

PNG coastline, coastal villages and rural coastal population are vulnerable to sea level rise and
other weather-related manifestations of climate change. The main impacts will be inundation of
coastal wetlands and foreshore areas, bleaching of corals, which will weaken the coral reefs as
barrier protection systems. Loss of wetlands, freshwater sources due to seawater intrusion, and
lands may eventually lead to displacement of communities, resulting in aggrivated future social
problems.

Photograph 1. 2. Beach erosion resulting from sea level rise (Source: S. Saulei)

INUNDATION

The permanent or periodic inundation of deltaic flood plains, swamps, and low-lying areas could
affect up to 50% of the Papuan Coastlines, and 10% of the northern shorelines (for a 1m sea
level rise – IPCC’s highest estimate). This may result in damage to mangroves and swamp forest
ecosystems, as well as human productive systems. More than 90% of the coastlines of Gulf and
Western Provinces are likely to be impacted. Flooding is also expected to affect the lower Sepik-
Ramu region. Approximately 4500 kilometers out of a total of 17100 kilometers of shoreline are
expected to be moderately to severely inundated, affecting up to 30% of Papua New Guinea’s
population. In addition, there is a danger that some very low-lying islands, including barrier
islands, will be completely submerged. Evidences of this are already occurring, especially in the
outer lying atoll islands of Mortlock, Tasman and the Duke of York Islands.

Flooding is likely to cause a loss of coastal infrastructure, including roads, such as parts of the
Magi and Hiritano Highways, marine installations, and urban centers, such as the coastal
settlements of Hanuabada, Vabukori, and Koki in Port Moresby. Large parts of Lae's industrial
and residential areas, and other low-lying towns, such as Kieta, Kimbe, Madang and parts of
Rabaul are likely to be affected. The replacement, mitigation, and additional maintenance costs
imposed by such changes are likely to be quite substantial.

41
BLEACHING AND LOSS OF COASTAL DEFENSES

A large proportion of Papua New Guinea’s shoreline is protected by both barrier and fringing
coral reefs. Coral reefs are known to be sensitive to increases in surface ocean temperatures,
which cause die back and bleaching from the loss of zooxanthellae (the algae that sustains them).
Elevated sea surface temperatures, associated with coral bleaching and ENSO activity have been
observed on a number of occasions and at various locations throughout the country.

The inundation of reefs, combined with increased surface water temperatures and possible
sedimentation and increased turbidity from shoreline erosion could also contribute to reef
mortality. Unhealthy coral reefs that have been dynamited, over-fished or poisoned are known
to be less able to maintain normal rates of growth, and thus, are more likely to drown. The loss
of vital sea-wall barriers that are provided by barrier reefs and mangrove communities may
heighten the impacts of coastal flooding. As breakwaters, coral reefs provide a vital wave energy
dissipation function and their loss would result in increased coastal erosion.

WETLAND LOSS

The distribution and zonation of mangroves is mostly influenced by salinity, tidal fluctuations
and drainage patterns. Secondary influences include temperature, land relief and shelter from
storm surges and big waves. Salination of mangrove systems could occur given that they prefer a
salinity level, which is equal to or close to that of seawater. Similarly, increased storminess may
also change the zonation through accresive or erosive action of the waves. The loss of mangrove
system integrity will have adverse effects on subsistence welfare of the local villagers living in
or near such mangrove areas.

Photograph 1..3 Salination effect on mangrove forest causing dieback (Source: J. Aruga)

The distribution of tropical seagrasses is also affected by variation in water temperatures (which
should be warmer than 20oC) and water movement.

LAND LOSS

Competition for limited resources, and restrictions imposed on out-migration and settlement by
Papua New Guinea's system of land tenure are likely to lead to a number of social pressures and
potential conflicts over land. Areas where population and land-use pressures are already high,
42
and where land degradation is a current problem are likely to suffer from additional degradation
and loss of productivity. This will retard the ability of human communities in such areas to
respond to other ecological stresses.

There is a strong inverse correlation between the levels of socio-economic development of the
coastal provinces of PNG and the extent to which they will be affected. Several provinces are
expected to be most affected by sea level rise such as Western, Gulf, West and East Sepik,
Manus, New Ireland, Bougainvillea and Milne Bay, many are least developed. The communities
in a number of these provinces could suffer the greatest loss of land and other socio-economic
disruptions. In addition, issues of resettlement will be compounded because of the strong
inherent customary land tenure system. In instances where resettlement is an option, the financial
and cultural (dislocation) costs are likely to be high.

FISHERIES

The levels of fishing effort and fish behavior are directly affected by the weather and sea surface
temperatures. However, the impacts will be complicated by the presence of anthropogenic
factors. Climate change will have the greatest effect on fisheries that are already stressed, for
example, through overexploitation and over capacity. Most of these impacts can be identified,
but not readily quantified or predicted.

Many breeding grounds for commercially important fish and shellfish are located in shallow
waters near the coasts and within mangrove systems. Barramundi, crabs, prawns and other
species are dependent on mangroves for their development during various stages of their life
cycle. Therefore, any loss of mangrove ecosystems has potential severe consequences on
artisinal and commercial fisheries.

Changes in the incidence of ciguaratera fish poisoning, have been related to sea surface
temperature increases and reef disturbance. If ciguaratera becomes a persistent problem in an
area, people may modify their diet or decrease their protein intake, thus indirectly affecting their
budget, lifestyle and health.

The distribution of tuna fisheries is affected by the location of the Western Pacific Warm Pool
(WPWP) where Papua New Guinea is situated, an area of warm surface waters (more than 28oC)
that produces virtually all of the tuna caught by purse seine. During El Niño years the WPWP
can be displaced eastward into the central Pacific by nearly 4,000 km (see Figure 3.2 below). In
addition to this geographical displacement, El Niño also influences the abundance of tuna. El
Niño years tend to result in higher than average abundance of skipjack, while La Niña years
generally result in higher abundance of yellowfin tuna and albacore in the subsequent months.

43
 Figure 3.2. Tuna Fisheries and Climate Variability

BIODIVERSITY

The viability of the natural environment is already under constant threat from current patterns of
development, consumption, urbanization, infrastructural development and population growth.
The vulnerability of biota and their environments are discussed elsewhere in this communication.
Any changes to the natural systems will greatly affect the country’s unique and very rich
biodiversity. For example, aspects of the life histories such as length of hibernation, preferred
niches, etc. of various biota may be different from that in the absence of climate change, but to
what extent is unclear.

WATER RESOURCES

Water is a resource with which PNG is richly endowed (see Figure 3.3). The majority of the
major river systems are located in the western end of the country and have a flow of rate of some
5000m3/s annually, and similarly receive rainfall greater than 3000 mm per annum. These major
river systems dominate the inland hydrological cycle in mainland Papua New Guinea.

The water resources have been gradually depleted due to rapid industrial and resources
development, population pressure, forestry and agriculture expansion. Increased emissions of
greenhouse gases pose a strong possibility of rapidly depleting the water resources availability,
owing to fluctuations in rainfall behavioral patterns and evapo-transpiration potential.

44
 Figure 3.3. Major river systems in Papua New Guinea

Vulnerability to water resources is induced by changes in climatic conditions such as increases in

temperature, rises in sea level and depletion in carbon dioxide gas. For example, increased CO2
concentration would reduce stomatal conductance in many plants, implying a reduction in
transpiration although the effects vary considerable between species. These changes are likely to
upset the overall normal water availability, water balance and hydrological cycle.

45
CONTAMINATION OF FRESHWATER LENS

More than 200 low-lying islands and coral atolls throughout PNG support small human
settlements. These communities rely on ground water lenses for supply of fresh water, both for
human consumption and for gardening. These lenses are likely to be affected by salt-water
intrusion because of rising sea levels and leakage during storm surges, thus causing a shortage of
fresh water. The photograph 1.3 shows the manifestation of sea level rise and loss of freshwater
in one of the affected islands in PNG. The complexity of effects of climate change on water
supplies not only because of the various geophysical factors (sea level rise, precipitation,
changing island morphology) but also because of a range of socio-economic processes is shown
in Figure 3.4.

Photograph 1.3 Loss of Freshwater due to saltwater intrusion (Source: S. Saulei)

46
 Figure 3.4 Possible climate change effects on water supplies in Papua New Guinea.

Economic Change Population Change Settlement Patterns Climate Change

Increased employment
opportunities in coastal
areas and island Natural Increase
Provinces Increased population
density on coastal areas
and islands provinces
Increased rainfall
variability

Increased frequency of
Migration dry spells

Temporary houses less Reduced freshwater lens

likely to have suitable capacity
reservoir capacity

Tourism development in
coastal centres and island Increased pressure on
provinces fresh water supplies

Increased demand for

fresh water

Increased Potential for

Critical Freshwater
Shortages

HEALTH

Most Papua New Guineans live, on average, to the age of 56, which is the lowest in the South
Pacific region. The leading causes of death for all ages are pneumonia, prenatal problems,
malaria, meningitis, tuberculosis and diarrhea. A mere 20% of rural people have access to safe
water and sanitation services, contributing to water borne disease and making PNG most
vulnerable to cholera outbreaks. In terms of health risks, women, children and the old among the
village-based population are more susceptible than the stronger male population.

The impacts of climate change on health can be classified into three categories:

(i) Direct impacts on human safety: where storms can damage and destroy health
centers and related infrastructure, thereby disrupting essential health services. For
example, severe cyclones have destroyed services in the areas of Milne Bay
province with marginal areas of Northern and Central Provinces also affected to
some degree.

47
 (ii) Nutritional related disease arising from malnutrition and food shortages,
especially where subsistence crops and fisheries are affected. For example,
prolonged heavy rains and flooding in low-lying areas or wetlands of the Western
and Sepik provinces as well as many parts of the country has resulted in mass
migration inland, or away from the affected areas. Since these areas are full of
swamps and no proper land for agriculture, people mostly depend on sago and
fish as their major source of food. These people would be at a greater risk as a
result of climate change simply because they are incapable of working on the
land.

(iii) Indirect effects such as increases in the incidence of vector borne and other
diseases where intense droughts and cyclones disrupt water supplies and
sanitation systems. Malaria is associated with a broad range of habitat, an
optimum temperature above 22oC and an altitude of less than 670 meters (see
Figure 3.4). Vulnerable areas are the Kikori and Sepik plains, Star Mountains and
some parts of New Britain.

Malaria could be exacerbated by sea level rise. It could cause people to relocate, while the
change in temperature and increased rainfall could result in water contamination, shifting the
mosquito vector and farming problems. In addition, climate change indirectly increases the
severity of disease by reducing agricultural production, which can lead to malnutrition.

LAND USE CHANGE, AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY

Land Use Change

Although forestry is of major economic value to the country, excessive logging in agricultural
areas has a major environmental impact and has the potential to affect agriculture. Should this
happen, there would be increased danger of erosion of fertile land, lowering of the water table in
underground reserves, and exposure of river banks to flooding/overflowing during monsoonal
rains.

The problem of land clearing will be exacerbated if prices for export crops such as tea, coffee,
cocoa and copra are depressed as farmers will be tempted either to intensify cropping practice or
clear more land. Available forested lands will be subjected to increased deforestation to cater for
the increase in population. There would not be enough land for cultivation and further more, no
land rights to available land. The people would also need to adapt to new methods of farming
such as on mountain slopes and valleys, however, these methods of farming could also have
negative implications on crops. Farming in valleys would expose crops to frost damage during
drought periods. In addition, the complex traditional land tenure system that exists in PNG will
make it more difficult to achieve coordinated changes in land usage that may become necessary
due to climate change and sea level rise.

48
 Figure 3.4: Malaria trends and possible habitats (source Natera, 1999).

LEGEND: Coloured habitats: Light Blue – Lake; Hash Blue: Differentiated Swamp; Hash Dark Blue: Blocked
Swamp; Dotted Yellow: Esturines; Cris-cross Blue: Mangrove Swamp. Coloured Letters: F – Anopheles farauti; P
– A. punctulatus; K – A. koliensis; W – A. karwari; S – A. subpictus; B – A. bancroffii

AGRICULTURE

Agriculture production is very sensitive to climate and climate variability. Crop yields are
influenced by inter-annual variations in weather, nutrient status of soils and temperature. Climate
change will affect soils primarily through changes in soil moisture, soil temperature and soil
organic matter content.

The vulnerability of crops to climate change may either be increased or diminished by future
technological changes. If technological advances narrow the optimal range of input conditions
for agricultural production (e.g. need for high levels of fertilizer), and if climate change results in
increased variability such as increases in frequency of droughts as well, production risks may
also be expected to increase.

The direct effect of increased temperature generally decreases photosynthesis at temperatures

above 25°C for tropical crops like sweet potato, cassava, taro and yams. In PNG (high island
country), rising temperature will raise the upper altitude limits at which tropical crops can be
cultivated. Higher temperatures will affect agricultural productivity, whereby farmers will be
subjected to heat stress due to high temperature and humidity.

49
Other effects of rising temperatures include:

• rapid post-harvest deterioration of crops;

• greater rate of water loss through evaporation, especially in limestone areas, leading to
greater occurrences of droughts in low-lying areas, and a decline in soil fertility;

• flooding of low lying areas if accompanied by higher rainfall. Soils will suffer greater
leaching and loss of fertility and the humid conditions will favor increased incubation of
agricultural pests and diseases;

• shorter time for crops to mature, hence smaller produce and thus, a lower overall yield.

Carbon dioxide will have the greatest potential effect on agricultural yields, especially for major
tropical C3 plants that depend on carbon dioxide for photosynthesis, like sweet potato, cassava,
taro and yams. Experiments based on doubling of CO2 concentrations have confirmed that “CO2
fertilization” can increase mean yield of C3 crops by 30%. These tropical plants are a staple diet
to PNG subsistence farming population. With more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the rate of
photosynthesis in these plants will increase. Although this may be of benefit to these tropical
tuber crops, increased carbon dioxide would also enhance weed growth, which could adversely
affect yields.

FORESTRY

Natural forests are disappearing through shifting agriculture at a rate of between 200,000-
250,000 ha annually, logging by some 60,000ha and other forms of developments (infrastructure,
large-scale commercial agriculture, settlements, etc.). At present, the extent of plantation forestry
covers only about 59,000ha, while treated natural forests only accounts for about 6,600ha
compared to the rate of forest removals. At this rate of removals and replacements, it becomes
very obvious that the current estimated acreage of productive forests (ca. 14 million ha) would
not last further than 50-60 years.

Changes in temperature may affect the formation of cloud forests, which occupy a very narrow
geographical and climatological niche. A slight shift in temperature or precipitation patterns
could cause this zone to shift upwards enough to be eliminated.

ADAPTIVE MEASURES

INTRODUCTION

The capacity to adapt to climate variability and climate change is affected by a range of
institutional, technological and cultural features. There needs to be a fundamental shift in the
importance given to sound environmental management with a mainstreaming of environmental
considerations at planning and policy levels. There is probably a role here for large international
organizations (e.g., UNDP, EU) to assist however, various past efforts in this regard have been
less than successful.

Careful thoughts should also be given to the level of implementation of any intervention. That
is, whether it is site specific or at a generic level, or whether it should be from the bottom up or
top down, or whether it is culturally acceptable, or whether the timing is right and what costs and
benefits will these bring. Table 3.4 below summarises the range of adaptation measures in each
of the sectors.

50
 Table 3.4 Adaptation measures

Coastal and Marine Environments

Mechanism Constraints and Opportunities

Coastal management policy and Maintenance of the integrity of the natural systems and their
planning buffers is important in the face of climate change. Government
policy needs to take account of the potential impacts of likely
changes in sea level, the need to avoid development in areas
prone to inundation or accelerated erosion and the need to
ensure the safety of people.

The adverse effects of natural hazards are particularly important

at provincial government level because the hazards usually
have localized effects. Local authorities have a stake in
avoiding, minimizing, and mitigating the costs and effects of
natural hazards.

Integrated Coastal Management Integrated coastal management is needed as a long-term

approach. However, in the PNG context, truly integrated
institutional approaches are unlikely in the foreseeable future,
but these are not needed. What is needed is institutional
coordination horizontally (across sectors) and vertically (local -
provincial – national), that can be achieved at relatively low cost
and with minimal institutional restructuring.

Community based monitoring and There is essentially no routine monitoring of PNG’s marine
management environment, except for private programs operated by mines.
Academic institutions and research stations have initiated a few
monitoring efforts but these are not directly linked to
management efforts.

The few examples of successful management interventions to

ensure sustainable use of PNG’s coral reef resources generally
involve community-based initiatives such as codes of practice or
voluntary efforts by local industry groups. The level of a project’s
physical presence on site should match community
commitment.

Integrated research Recommendations for integrated research in ecosystem need to

focus on finding out the distribution and structure of species and
ecosystem; storm events to help understand ecosystem
engineering and site rehabilitation; identification of human use
patterns; cultivation and management of mangroves and testing
of village based ecosystem care units and; identification of
sources of income from traditional shell fishing to shell crafting.
Building capacity in provincial and PNG has generally adequate environmental legislation but very
national government agencies low, and declining, capacity to implement it. The environmental
planning and management capacity of relevant national and
provincial government agencies is extremely limited, hampered
by the nation's political and economic instability and a seemingly
endless process of institutional reorganization. For example, the
OEC was recently downgraded from a cabinet department, and
staff cut by 50%. Even before this the department suffered from
critical shortages of human and financial resources.

The management of threats such as urban development,

watershed degradation, large-scale industrial development, and
commercial fishing urgently require technical staff and
institutional capacity in provincial and national government
agencies. Capacity building is hampered by cultural obligations
51
 and work demands, inefficient bureaucracies and funding
constraints.

Hard and soft measures Structural measures such as sea walls and groins are costly and
provide few benefits other than protection of erosion and
safeguarding of assets only on a short term basis. Sea walls
may also increase problems downstream. Therefore, structural
options should be screened for their compatibility with
community aspirations.

Soft options involving revegetation to stabilize the shoreline are

less costly but need constant maintenance. They may also be
easily affected by increased storminess and wave action. Set
back areas also help control development.

Fisheries
Mechanism Constraints and Opportunities

Adaptive management Adaptation strategies should be aimed at acquiring a capacity to

respond to unexpected changes in the environment by quickly
changing fishery management approaches.
Develop aquaculture Aquaculture helps to relax the gap between demand and supply
and will reduce the pressure on wild stockings.
Reduce post harvest losses New technology may help reduce by-catch and maintain fish
quality.
Stronger regional collaboration for For tuna fisheries, PNG needs to continue it’s strong
management and research involvement in the establishment of multilateral agreements with
distant water fishing nations.

Poor resolution of climate models are not able to predict

changes at the scale of fish recruitment. Data on the spatial and
temporal distribution patterns of tuna can help fish management
authorities adjust their management practices.

Data collection systems Aside from data on a few fisheries stocks, existing information
on the marine environment to establish any form of baseline
against which trends might be identified as a basis for
management is almost completely inadequate. Nearly all work
has consisted of "one off" studies at one or a very few sites, and
there is virtually no information about spatial and temporal
variability. Some basic information about the coastal biota (e.g.,
species lists) has been provided by work at the UPNG and
various research stations, but it is very limited both
geographically and taxonomically.

Fish and marine reserves A conservation needs assessment has identified 30 priority
areas for conservation of critical habitats. This includes stock
enhancement of inland fisheries. A number of marine reserves
are currently being proposed in Milne Bay and highlands
provinces.

52
 Agriculture, Land Use Change and Forestry

Mechanism Constraints and Opportunities

Micro credit and small business Traditional agriculture in PNG is based on a rotational bush
expansion. fallow system, which is highly productive and generally
sustainable, providing population pressure does not force the
use of too short a rotation period. However, in order for
households to maintain food and nutritional security throughout
the year, they must have access to sources of income through
on-farm or off-farm activities. This requires both a supportive
policy and planning system at the national level, effective
extension services and access to credit and business
opportunities.
Research into new plant varieties, Research is needed to find out more about adaptive measures
crop rotation, use of irrigation, altered that exist such as breeding and genetic programs; protection
nutrient levels and plantation forestry systems such as fire, insects and diseases; the regeneration
alternatives. potential of natural forests whether intact or logged; suitable
plantation site and species selections; and suitability of
indigenous species.
Sustainable natural forest One of the most contentious issues that the forest authority
management needs to address is how can it expand its programme on forest
replacement and implement its policy on sustainable natural
forest management when it is faced with the dilemma that the
land and the forests on it are owned by the customary owners
who may have other uses for their land and forests.
New technologies The introduction of new and/or improved codes of practice,
reduced impact logging, the provision of better information
about timber stands, and the upgrading of the resource
management capacity of the forestry professionals, technicians
and field supervisors are key elements in the process of
achieving sustainable forest management.

Strategies for future farming developments through the

introduction of sustainable subsistence crops and the
introduction of new farming methods and practices are needed.
Capacity Building Capacity building initiatives should be focused on piloting
innovative extension systems, improving and integrating farming
technologies, strengthening agricultural data collection and
planning and expanding micro credit and small business training
facilities.
Woodlot establishment, agroforesty These practices could be carried out where there is a shortage
and tree planting supported by active of wood and wood products for domestic consumption. In Port
forestry extension. Moresby, there is an ongoing mangrove reforestation
programme with villagers on the Motuan coast.

53
 Biodiversity

Mechanism Constraints and Opportunities

Slow biological invasions Aquatic plants such as the Water Hyancith and Salvinia have
been major problems in the Sepik River and elsewhere but
there is no comprehensive monitoring programme on
distribution, population sizes, rates of change, environmental
impacts and effectiveness of control measures.
Strengthen and enforce policies that Many initiatives at protecting critical habitats on a sustainable
protect critical habitats basis have tended to become academic and research orientated
exercises, which are far removed in terms of providing the
tangible benefits to landowners and the community at large.

Research into the local effects of Models of the distribution of species or species associations
climate variability and change on could be related to the drivers of climate change. Monitoring of
species specific plots may also allow human and climate change
impacts to be differentiated.
Increase awareness of visitors and the The government’s priorities are to ensure resource owners play
public concerning the value of species a more meaningful role in planning and implementation of
and biodiversity development and conservation activities by improving their
understanding of the environmental and social impacts of
different land use options and helping them achieve higher
sustainable incomes.
Maintain gene pools through a system Knowledge of native species is minimal but could be useful in
of connected protected areas the future to redistribute and maximize gene pools.
Reintroduction’s of species are possible but not to the full range
of species that once existed.

Strategic policy The National Biodiversity Strategic Action Programme initiative,

developed out of the Convention on Biodiversity, will provide the
framework for an integrated strategy for the country. The OEC
will need considerable strengthening if it is to oversee the
coordination and implementation of this strategy. Landowner
issues may also need to be resolved.

Water Resources

Mechanism Constraints and Opportunities

Invest in new water technologies, A lot of waste-water is being discharged into ponds and lagoons
particularly for recycled water. during the dry and wet seasons all year around.

Encourage integrated water Changes in hydrological characteristics are likely to lead to

management approaches changes in the aquatic and wetland ecosystems and increase
demands for irrigation from the agricultural sector. Integrated
water resource management under a ‘no regrets’ response
option requires intensive investment but it has the potential to
draw independent water users under one governing agency.

Incorporate climate change into water Ensure that Climate Change and variability is incorporated in
management legislation various Environmental and Conservation Acts, but focusing on
water and including monitoring, data collection and
management of the water resources.

Transfer of new technology to assist Project developers have been encouraged to upgrade capability
with water projects/ activities and capacity building for water quality monitoring and assist in
the acquisition of upgraded resources to enhance national
technologies. One example is the ALERT flow forecasting and
warning soft and hardware systems currently employed by the
OK Tedi Mining Limited for dredging and navigation for warning
of its ore shipment. Although the system is generally functioning
54
 well, it is expensive to maintain. This system has been
recommended for use in other applications such as Bumbu
catchment flood preparedness and warning system in Lae,
Sepik flood propagation for navigation, and modernization of
Laloki River water and power supply systems.
Improve resources information and PNG has comprehensive information on 90% of the river
monitoring systems in the country with a representative rainfall network.
Additional information includes water volumes and quality,
(selective) attributes of resource development and developers,
commercial entities and other small scale projects.

Research into new technologies is underway to improve

information collection and data transfer on water resource
management methodology, water hazard warning and
forecasting and improvement of analysis techniques.

Keeping up with technology developments is a high priority for

PNG. Recent use of satellite data transmission technology and
remote sensing has reduced costs drastically in a short time of
application, and resulted in real time data transfer with
reasonable precision. The whole system is highly sophisticated
and requires well trained personnel to install and operate.

With the assistance received from international agencies

involved in water management, engineering and resource
development, a primary baseline database has been
established for PNG. This further implies that information
transfer and exchange with other Pacific and Southeast Asian
countries will commence by the end of year 2000. This includes
attending specific training and job attachment programs.
Develop alternative water sources Severe shortage of water in the small islands, atolls of New
such as rainfall catchment devices as Guinea island provinces and the Central province in particular
well as saltwater and brackish water has forced an emergence of basic water acquisition
desalination plants technologies. Tanks have been designed to withstand salt,
durability, compatibility for transportation and ease of assembly
on site. This concept is inexpensive in the long term and
requires no maintenance, training or management skills.

Desalination plants is one of the options currently considered.

Very few are in operation because of high capital and running
costs. Establishment, operation and maintenance is very
expensive and requires very skilled personnel. Equipment and
initial labor have to be source abroad while training has to be
provided for the local communities on the maintenance and
management of the entire establishment.

Water conservation measures Licenses for large water uses could help discourage water
including leakage control wastage. Improved plumbing, communal tanks and stand pipes
could help reduce wastage.

Water carting Carting water to rural areas, squatter settlements and

communities from a main supply system is a new concept.
Specially designed vehicles are used to cart approximately 1000
or more liters of water and travel more than 100 km (1 hour) to
dislodge its contents into 100 to 1000 liter tanks for each
household. Water carting is only suitable over a short distance
and time and is recommended for use in severe dry seasons
only.

Runoff and precipitation retention Open retention basins are a practical option given the very
rugged nature of this country. Direct precipitation, excess
streamflow and overland runoff can be trapped in retention
basins and stored for an indefinite period of time for any future
use.

55
Training Local on job training and work attachment are not costly but
simultaneously beneficial, and is the fundamental basis of
information and knowledge acquisition and transfer. Because of
the very unique nature of this profession in PNG job related
training is not readily available in most of the technical and
tertiary institutions in the country. Advance postgraduate training
on engineering hydrology, water resources management and
water biochemistry are held abroad.

Redistribution of water resources Temporal and spatial inter basin water transfer is one viable
option but requires capital investment. The basic concept is to
abstract a certain portion (variable) of water from a main river
system or where there is abundance of water resources, and
transfer it to a receiving basin where its source is inadequate to
meet all demands from it’s a normal river runoff and
underground sources.

Inter basin water transfer due to extensive spatial coverage and

lacking treatment is recommended for irrigation and hydropower
generation, and should be applicable during the dry weather
periods only.

Health

Mechanism Constraints and Opportunities

Control vector borne diseases Requirements to control vector borne disease such as malaria
include: identify location and elevation of habitats for the various
species of malaria, compile and monitor the occurrence of
diseases and identify vulnerable areas and people resistant to a
particular strain.

Reduction in heat stress through Health care infrastructure needs to be upgraded but support for
infrastructure improvement including these measures will place a large burden on public
adoption and enforcement of more expenditures.
stringent building codes

Comprehensive disaster management Areas vulnerable to tsunami, landslides and cyclones have
programmes already been identified. However, erosion risk will also be
affected by tectonicity and mass movement of the earth’s crust.
More detailed surveying and mapping of such areas is required.

Preventative health care through

public awareness programmes

Improve medical services The government is in the process of decentralizing the country’s
health system from the national to the provincial and district
levels to enable more cost effective and coordinated delivery of
services. Training and capacity building initiatives have been
launched to enhance management skills within the health
sector. International aid programmes are also in place to
provide technical support to improve it’s pharmaceutical supply
system, cold chain logistics, blood bank system and public
health laboratories. These programmes will also concentrate on
vaccine preventable diseases, diahorrea control, acute
respiratory diseases and tuberculosis, with much of the funds
directed to rural areas.

Improve quarantine services

56
CONCLUSION

Climate change, variability and sea level rise are important issues, which affect the development
and environment of PNG. The adaptation strategies to minimise impacts do not need extensive
new interventions, but rather the enhancement of current practices. The development choices
made today and mistakes magnified in the face of climate change will be felt by future
generations. The resilience of economic, social and environmental systems is expected to
decrease and the country may feel the full magnitude of climate change impacts.

In PNG, the most vulnerable would be the village-based population, which depend on
subsistence farming for their livelihood and means of cash income. Those who are dependent on
farming, fishing or forestry would see their livelihoods degraded by the changes in rainfall
patterns, degraded soils, forests and fishing grounds. They would find it more difficult to change
over to new crops and farming practices and methods, adopt effective irrigation methods, acquire
cultivable land for continued farming and adopt better fishing methods.

The time to act to reduce the vulnerability of the country is now. Appropriate actions will have
to be implemented as these will go a long way toward reducing the magnitude of the damages
brought about by climate change and human activities on the environment in the future. The
challenge will be to determine how to make some adjustments to the current path of
development, whilst still achieving economic gains without investing in high cost or badly
conceived solutions.

57
 CHAPTER 4

MITIGATION OPTIONS - ENERGY, TRANSPORT, FORESTRY AND

WASTE
INTRODUCTION

The energy, transport and forestry sectors are important as the economic backbone of the
country. The different types of waste (solid, liquid and hazardous) as by-products of different
sectors, including energy, transport and forestry, require urgent attention to reduce the
emissions of GHG. For the people of PNG to seriously mitigate the impacts of climate
change and variability so that their actions have long term environment and economic
sustainability; identification of range of mitigation and adaptation options especially the
"non-regrets" types should be given priority.

In Papua New Guinea, the options to use forests as a major sink is quite obvious, with large
tracts of forests still intact and the potential for establishing reforestation and afforestation
needs to be explored. The use of intact forests for mitigation GHG emissions would also
enhance PNG’s approaches to conserving its unique and very rich biological diversity.
Similarly, the options for use of biomass, biogas, hydro-power, etc., from the available
resources in the country needs to be considered.

Presented below in Table 4.1are some important mitigation options in the energy, forestry,
transport and waste that have been identified. However, no analysis of mitigation option
measures were not done due to lack of data. Some activities/programmes are currently being
implemented to reduce GHG emissions and to cope with the climate change and extreme
variability signals. The government (provincial), landowners and private groups ought to
assess the potential of these mitigation options and develop them as programmes for the
country.

58
 Table 4.1: Energy, Transport, Forestry and Waste Mitigation Options.

Energy Mitigation Options

Mechanism Constraints and Opportunities

Promote the widespread use of The provincial/national governments need to explore new and
renewable energy and the efficient efficient technology to replace conventional ones. In addition,
use of conventional energy. research is needed into the renewable energy such wind, solar
power, more hydro schemes, and biofuels. Use of the Kyoto
Protocol and its initiatives to support renewable energy and
transfer of technology in country.
Encourage agencies involved in Most people are unaware of the economic implications of fuel
agriculture, fisheries, trade and importation. Thus there is a need for more research, education
industry to develop programmes that and public awareness to look at alternatives to energy fuel.
address fuel import replacement. Exploiting natural energy resources like gas, oil, solar, wood,
ethanol and wind to reduce fuel important quota. Other options
include the introduction of a carbon tax on imported fuel.

Incentives such as duty free The Petroleum and Energy Ministry need to address these
privileges, tariffs and tax exemptions types of incentives. Incentives are needed which allow private
for pioneering industries sectors and village communities to be able to afford new energy
efficient technologies.

Facilitate the development of There are difficulties in calculating the GHG levels in the country
Emission GHG Factors for the GHG Inventory. To make the inventory as
comprehensive as possible, there is a need for research to
determine the emission factors for forestry and land
use/agriculture.

Lowering energy consumption This has been carried out in other countries but it may be useful
through demand-side management for PNG to apply energy auditing, green labeling in home
energy efficiency and conservation appliance/offices, tax refunds and consumer education. This will
programmes impact on the current policies and measures.

Policy/regulations to incorporate Currently there is no climate change policy included in energy

climate change and Variability policies. Because of future climate change impacts on energy
sectors, the policy needs to reflect this issue. E.g. Develop
national oil contingency plan

Information and Awareness on There is lack of information on renewable energy, labeling

Renewable energies schemes and efficient audits. The need for public awareness
and training programmes is essential for the energy sector. Use
of regional organizations for training and capacity building.

Data centralized for future GHG During the GHG Inventory exercise, the data for both energy
Inventories and transport sectors were not readily accessible or in the right
format. Many of the industries and government departments
were not aware of the importance of the UNFCCC treaty and its
linkages to their sectors. Consideration should be given to
centralizing the data or making them available on a distributed
network.

Equipment and/ Technology supply Affordable and efficient appliances, with supplies and parts
being difficult to obtain is a constant problem. This would be
rectified with monitoring and proper procedures are put in place.

59
Transport- Mechanism Constraints and opportunities

Transport sectors need to introduce To reduce as much emission and C02 level, transport sectors
Tax incentives to all petroleum and will need to create initiatives such as carbon tax on all
size of vehicles petroleum; tax vehicles according to size and give exemption to
non- fuel consuming transport system.

Need to create subsidies for public With so many vehicles already in crowded towns, the attraction
transport systems for subsidies to public transport, use of efficient cars and non-
fuels consuming transport system must be encouraged.

Policy and regulations With the already increased air pollution and increasing emission
level, new policies/regulations must be introduced for engine
sizes and ban vehicles with high emission levels.
Technology and Equipment Transfer For large towns in the country and the pressure on finance and
creating air pollution in the country, public transport vehicles
must encouraged to benefit all.

Training and education and Generally the people are not aware of the importance of
awareness transport sector and fuel consumption and air pollution. There
needs to be more public education, training and awareness on
this sector

Forestry- Mechanism Constraints and Opportunities.

Introduction of Tax incentives The country's forest is an important resource and needs to be
better managed at the community and provincial level. In order
to continue with better practices, new initiatives like creating tax
concessions to forest sectors or sell emission offset rights are
needed.

Subsidies for Forestry sectors The communities and landowners own large forestry areas but
lack finance and research capacity to better manage their
resources. The need for research organizations and
government to assist in providing free seedlings and support to
improve their roads is necessary.

Policy and Regulation It was realised that during the GHG Inventory exercise, the
Forestry department was not aware of the importance of the
UNFCCC/Kyoto protocol and how national policies has not
reflected any obligations of these treaties. In order to benefit
from these treaties, the forest policies need to account for
climate changes programmes.

Research and Development The results from the GHG Inventory for Forestry revealed some
problems on lack of data in forest types, inappropriate data
format, inappropriate emission factor used in GHG calculations,
and data on carbon dioxide and nitrous oxides interactions
between soils and forestry were important but not readily
available. The need for urgent research to address these areas
to up date the next Initial National Communication is a priority.

60
Integrated Forestry Management Land and forest disputes between landowners/Provincial
Approach (Agro-forest Management) governments and outsiders is a hindrance to management of
forestry initiatives. Initiatives under Integrated Forest
Management or Agro-forest Management can benefit small
provinces and communities with limited land area. In addition,
forestry and land management approaches should targeted to
reducing emission of GHGs.

Carbon Sequestration Initiatives Due to financial constraints a lot of mono-plantations in the

country are slowly diminishing. Under the UNFCCC/Kyoto
protocol and its financial mechanism the country could stand to
benefit in the long term. Those provinces with much land and
plantations (pines, teak, mahogany trees) should look into
carbon sequestration initiatives. With large mangrove areas
along the coast of most provinces, special efforts to develop the
programme is essential for adaptation and mitigation measures.

Waste – Mitigation Options

Mechanism Constraints and Opportunities

Raise priority of waste management The government, its provincial governments and private
In PNG companies need to be involved to effectively address these
issues.

Revise waste management There are two aspects to the management of hazardous wastes
legislation and guidelines, in the country. Firstly, there is the problem of dealing with
particularly for hazardous waste accumulations of waste or unwanted chemicals or hazardous
materials, which are in storage in the absence of any organized
disposal programme. Secondly, there are the situations where
contamination of soil or groundwater has occurred. This may be
due to accidental spillage and leakage of stored chemicals or
deliberate burying in an attempt to dispose of material.

Special care and practices are required to deal with wastes such
as batteries (vehicle, and small household), waste oil, pesticides,
medical waste, paint and solvent, industrial waste (timber
treatment and processing, mining processing), transformers
(PCB) and septic tank cleanings.

Strengthen environmental Most industries in the country have some sort of treatment and
monitoring and enforcement disposal systems, but there is little information available,
particularly discharge monitoring. Government authorities need to
have more control over discharges to minimise adverse effects to
the environment.

Improve waste conservation Capital intensive; would require outside funding and technical
infrastructure expertise to implement.

Initiate education on recycling, Wastes should be collected, stored and removed from the country
composting and waste reduction for safe disposal or recycling overseas. However there are
programs substantial costs and logistical problems in this approach.

Identify waste site areas The search for environmentally safe and socially acceptable
areas to dispose of wastes is an unending problem faced by all
the towns and villages. No one wants a dump located in his or her
“backyard”. All too often mangrove areas, oceans, rivers and/or

61
 beaches become landfills by default. Export of wastes should be
in accordance with international conventions.

Education, Training and awareness Waste is priority issue for the country and its towns and villages,
especially cleanness and health reasons. The importance of
public awareness, training and education for the whole country
must be given priority.

Integrated Waste Management The different types of waste (solid, liquid and hazardous)
introduced into the towns and villages are long term concern. Any
waste management programmes implemented should be
integrated with other sectors like water, coastal, agriculture and
environmental ones. Reduction of emissions of GHG in the waste
areas is any important component of the plan.

CONCLUSION

There are a range of mitigation options but these are not necessarily currently realised by
government, industry or communities. Mitigation options need not be capital intensive but
can involve low impact and low cost technologies or management practices not too different
from those currently in use.

62
 CHAPTER 5

SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATION AND RESEARCH

INTRODUCTION

The GoPNG and it’s scientists have realised the importance of climate change and are now
coordinating and implementing programmes/activities to improve their understanding of the
science, impacts and adaptation measures of climate change and variability. The country is also
committed to implementing its obligations, which often have a strong research or information
component under the following international treaties: United Nations Framework Convention for
Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, Convention of the World Meteorological
Organization, the Vienna Convention and Montreal Protocol, and the Convention to Combat
Desertification and Agenda 21. The implementation of these treaties is usually at the national
level in partnership with other bilateral and international organizations.

PNG is fully involved in the activities and programmes of the following organizations:

• Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change

• World Climate Program of WMO
• UNFCCC/Kyoto Protocol financed through GEF
• Montreal Protocol programmes
• United Nations Environment Program
• UNESCO/Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission (IOC)
• United Nations Biodiversity Convention

These are well established organizations and institutions who are committed to improving the
understanding of the science of climate change and variability. Funding from the GEF has
enhanced studies and increased capacity building to address the issues such as the GHG
Inventory, impacts, vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation options.

DATA COLLECTION, SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS.

The PNGNWS has a national responsibility for climate and weather forecasting. The basic and
essential functions of a National Meteorological Service can be summarized as follows:

• To plan, implement, operate and maintain surface and upper air observing networks over its
territory;
• To provide and maintain systems for the collection, and quality control of observational data
and their processing in support of meteorological research, the provision of real time weather
and climate services, and assembly of a national climate record;
• To advance meteorological science and the development and improvement of its operations
and services through supporting research and development;
• To provide a range of weather information, forecast and warning services to the community
at large, usually through the mass media;
• To provide a range of sector-specific operational meteorological services through the mass
media and through other channels to major user groups such as agriculture, shipping, aviation
and national defense;
• To keep and maintain a national climate archives and the provisions for climate data and
climate monitoring and prediction services;
• To provide advice on meteorological and climatological matters to other government
agencies and to its national community;
63
• To fulfill its obligations under regional and international conventions such as the SPREP
Convention, the Convention of the World Meteorological Organization, the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Vienna Convention, and the Convention to
Combat Desertification and Agenda 21.

The PNGNWS has been the main institution involved in researching climate and weather.
However, with the recent interest at the international level on climate change and variability and
its potential impacts on the country's economy and its people, there is now a strong shift by the
institutions to work with all national and international organization to address this issue. The
following institutions are involved in research in climate change, variability and sea level rise
issues.

BILATERAL, REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL

Some of the partners involved in climate related research in the PNG include, the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO), South Pacific Regional Environment Programme
(SPREP), South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC), Secretariat of the Pacific
Community (SPC), Australian Government (AusAID and Bureau of Meteorology), Israel
Government on impacts of agriculture and the USA (Energy Department).

NATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

The following government department and non-government organizations are involved in related
research on climate change matters:

OEC, Department of Energy and Petroleum, UPNG, UOT, National Forestry Institute
(PNGFRI), Transport Department, PNGNFA, NARI, National Fisheries Authority, Nature
Conservancy, Foundation of the South Pacific, World Wildlife Fund and Greenpeace.

RESEARCH PROGRAMMES

PNG network of meteorological stations in the country involves other partners in collecting,
arching and managing the data and information on climate change, variability and weather.
There are number of important research programmes in the short to long term being undertaken
in the country. These have been established and coordinated in the following areas:

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES SYSTEMATIC AND OBSERVATIONAL NETWORKS

The PNGNWS has about 95 professional and technical staff to manage its programmes in 13
meteorological centers around the country. It is from these centres that data are continuously
collected, collated, archived and disseminated throughout the country, regional and international
bodies, especially the WMO. Plans to increase the number of meteorological stations are
underway. It recently re-commissioned its upper air program in Port Moresby, in addition to the
Momote Upper Air Program operated by the TWP/ARM programme in Manus.The surface
observing programme continues to operate with support from satellite imaging system to provide
low-resolution data both for general and aviation weather forecasting purposes. An EMWIN
system provides alternative access to a range of weather information for national and
international presentation. Climate services, in which almost all available professionally trained
meteorologists are involved, is well developed and coupled to the CLImate COMputing
(CLICOM) applications.

64
The institutions involved in implementing and co-ordinating two international research
programmes with PNG are:

i) Measurement of GHG signals in the oceans/seas in the country and the Pacific region, in
detecting sea level rise, funded by Australian government since 1999;
ii) Measurement of solar radiation in the ocean, clouds and the islands of the Pacific,
financed by USA Department of Energy since 1996.

These programmes are addressing the global climate change issues and data is made available to
IPCC process and international communities, especially in improving their climate change
models and scenarios.

The main users of meteorological services are the general public, the media, aviation, marine,
disaster management (severe weather, including drought), agriculture, forestry, mining,
petroleum, energy, water resources and tourism sectors.

INFORMATION GAPS

• Lack of quality data and collection

• Early storm surges warnings
• Early predictions of El Nino and La Nina signals

SPECIFIC CAPACITY NEEDS

• Education and awareness

• Training and technology upgrades
• Network and data transfer capabilities

DISASTER MANAGEMENT

The country is very vulnerable to the effects of climate change and natural and man made
hazards, such as cyclones, storm surges, high abnormal sea tides, floods, fire, mining activities
and droughts. These events are very much linked to the climate change impacts on the country
and its people and are now being an area of priority for the government to address. A national
Disaster Management plan is in place to enable correct response options to be executed.

To enable resilience and adaptation strategies to be implemented, the following information gaps
and capacity needs have been identified as ‘no regrets’ approach to deal with disasters.

INFORMATION GAPS.

• Lack of information on vulnerable areas/sites

• Lack of information on the ocean circulation and tides
• Lack of information on water/rivers and drainage systems

SPECIFIC CAPACITY NEEDS.

• Lack of early warning systems

• More education and awareness
• Training on new technology
• Training of human resources

65
AGRICULTURE AND LAND USE

Both the PNGNWS and the Agricultural Ministry are developing adaptation options and research
to address the climate change, variability and natural disasters in the country. The National
Agriculture Research Institute (NARI) based in Lae, Morobe Province is the leading research
institution involved in improving the quality and production of crops (coffee, tea, coconuts,
cocoa), livestock, soil erosion and farming systems. Current studies include research into
cultivators of vegetables and root crops (sweet potatoes) which have increased tolerance for
drought and climate variability, waterlogged conditions, pests and resistance to disease. NARI
has also mapped out the country in different agro-ecological zones, which is useful for future
adoptation under climate change.

The following are some information gaps and capacity needs identified in this sector.

INFORMATION GAPS

• Lack of data on new cultivators

• No emission factors determined
• Lack of data on crops to address natural disasters response options
• Lack of GHG gases impacts on crops production

CAPACITY GAPS

• Lack of appropriate technology/tools

• Public awareness and training

FISHERIES AND MARINE RESOURCES

PNG has a declared Fishing Zone of some 2.3 million square kilometers. Large volumes of fresh
water runoffs, which are saturated with high nutrient loads, makes its way to offshore areas
where upwelling dramatically increases the productivity of the ecosystem. This zone supports
large fish populations ranging from tuna, sharks and mixed reef fishes.

Research on the impacts of climate change and variability combined with production of high
nutrients on tuna and coral reef ecosystems are being carried out by OEC, UPNG, Secretariat of
the Pacific Community (SPC), and the Institute for Research and Development (New Caledonia).
Meteorological and oceanographic data could be linked to model different scenarios to help
better understand and manage the fishery resource and its dynamics (see Figure 5.1).

The following are some information gaps and capacity needs identified in this sector:

DATA GAPS

• Lack of data on national fishing effort and yields

• Lack of understanding of the fishing impacts on habitats
• Lack of understanding of food relationships and impacts of climate change.

CAPACITY NEEDS

• Education and awareness

• Training of human resources
• Fisheries courses at tertiary levels
• Lack of financial resources to continue with research programmes

66
FORESTRY

The forest types in PNG, especially the lowland rainforests are different in many ways and much
diverse from other forests in the country. In addition, there are different types of forest found in
the highlands, coastal areas and the island provinces of the country. The impacts of climate
change and variability on the forestry in the country has now being investigated after the 1997/98
El Nino coupled with the long drought. The forest in provinces of the New Guinea islands were
affected the most during this period.

The Forestry Ministry through its Research Institute in Lae (PNGFRI), Morobe Province,
(UPNG) and the (UOT) are the main institutions in the country under going research in the
Forestry sectors. Their research includes identification of new species of trees/plants, cross
breeding, re-vegetation of old mine sites and collection and archiving of data in a central
location.

Figure 5.1 Skipjack catch during the El Nino period and how climate change and variability can
influence the productivity and catch (Source: SP Fisheries Forum).

130E 140E 150E 160E 170E 180 170W 160W

Skipjack catch (mt)

30N

30N
1988-1997
136,137
68,068.5
13,613.7

Pole-and-line
20N

20N
Purse seine
Other
10N

10N
0
0
10S

10S

130E 140E 150E 160E 170E 180 170W 160W

In addressing the climate change and improving the GHG inventory calculations, the OEC and
the UPNG are in the process of determining the emission factor for Forestry in the country
funded UNDP and GEF.

There are number of information gaps and capacity needs identified under this sector.

INFORMATION GAPS

• Lack of data on growth rates of the forest

• Lack of quality data in calculating C02 emissions and sinks from the forest.
67
• Lack of data on forestry and soil types.

CAPACITY NEEDS

• Training of human resources

• Education and awareness

FUTURE RESEARCH

More targeted research is needed to address the science, impacts, adaptation and mitigation of
climate change and should include:

• Determination of emission factors is assisting the calculations of GHG inventory

• Effects of C02 fertilization on crops growth, development and productivity
• Calculations of sinks and sources from the forestry, land use change and agriculture
• Identifying traditional adaptation options
• Renewable energy sources
• Better understanding of EL Nino impacts on the country's economic sectors
• Relationship with fish catch and climate change and variability
• Relationship of oceans, solar radiation and clouds
• GHG signals in the oceans and sea level rise
• Impacts of climate change on cultural and traditional aspects
• Effects of Ozone and climate change of human health
• Development of Integrated coastal area management
• Relations between climate change and coral bleaching
• Technology transfer
• Soft and hard adaptation options

CONCLUSION

There are critical information gaps and uncertainties, which must be addressed in order to better
understand and properly apply vulnerability and adaptive measures in PNG. A network of
climate change observation systems have been established around the country, but these may not
be enough to fully appreciate the scenarios under climate change, climatic variability and sea
level rise in the next 5 to 50 years. Even in the international arena, there are relatively few
resources being devoted to relevant empirical research and observations, which could be applied
to the PNG circumstances.

Climate change, variability and sea level should be the priority areas of interest for PNG.
However for this to occur, human resources and capacity building is needed to facilitate the
understanding of the science, impacts and adaptation options on climate change, particularly for
policy development and planning.

68
 CHAPTER 6

EDUCATION, TRAINING AND AWARENESS

INTRODUCTION

In 1990 and 1995, scientists from the IPCC worked on ways to reduce or minimise the
uncertainties in differentiating between the greenhouse energy signals and natural climate
variability; the magnitudes of the potential impacts of sea level rise. They determined that
climate change is serious and action must be taken now (even where all the data are not
available) in order to manage the risks.

Since 1989, the PNG Prime Minister and his colleagues from the Forum Island Countries also
agreed that sea level rise and climate change is one of the priority issues affecting the coastal
areas and atoll nations of the region. However, they also recognize that the national capacity to
deal with these problems whilst stimulating economic development are limited by traditional
land management systems, unique population dynamics, the complexity and vulnerability of
islands' ecosystems, limited natural resource bases, and heavy reliance on foreign aid. Having
ratified the UNFCCC and signed the Kyoto protocol, the country will need resources to fulfill its
international obligations. At the national level, education, training of human resources and public
awareness programmes/activities will set the platform for the government to address the climate
change and achieve sustainability in the long term.

Through the efforts of the UPNG in 1989, a Climate Change Coordination Group consisting of
representatives from government ministries was formed to advise the government on the climate
change and sea level issues. The OEC was then given the responsibility to the coordinate all
programmes and activities on the issue.

Since then, the tertiary institutions and some Government Ministries (especially, Foreign Affairs,
Civil Aviation and OEC) are generally aware of the climate change and variability activities.
These institutions have made some attempts to educate, train and raise awareness on the issues as
part of their programmes with some major constraints especially with financial and human
resources support. Further, these institutions have commenced working on policy to address the
issues of climate change and sea level rise.

While limited training, education and awareness are conducted in the government offices and the
tertiary institutions, the majority of the population of the country have little knowledge of
climate change and variability, its implication and consequences to them and the country as a
whole. Therefore special efforts will need to be made through education and awareness to ensure
that the people are aware of the impacts of climate change and variability to be able to adapt to
these situations.

ACTIVITIES

From 1991,the country has been able to attract bilateral and regional climate change funding to
implement their education, training and public awareness activities through several initiatives
including:

• The South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project funded by the Australian
government
• The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Project, funded by USA
• World Meteorological Organization
• Australian Bureau of Meteorology
69
• Climate and Agricultural Project funded by Israel
• South Pacific Regional Environment Program.

Through these projects and programmes, the government has made some efforts to include
climate change in some provinces (Manus and Central) and national educational curriculum.
Some activities include: school visits, public displays, training primary and secondary teachers
on climate change modules, public campaign, daily climate and updates, newsletters, media and
public awareness in schools.

The UPNG and PNGNWS are the two main institutions which offer formal education training
courses to address the climate change and sea level rise.

INFORMAL EDUCATION

To raise awareness on the climate change and variability is a challenge in the country where
illiteracy rate is very high, and informal education activities will be the most effective method of
discussing and creating interest and awareness. This should include the following activities:

• Use of Television programmes

• Weekly articles on newspaper
• Mitigation and adaptation awareness campaign in private and village communities
• Use of University students to annually raise awareness in the provinces and villages
• NGOs to promote and raise awareness through community discussions.
• Annual international occasions such as World Environment Day and the World Water Day

While formal and informal education and training are being implemented, the number and role of
NGOs in the country is an important vehicle to raise awareness on the climate change and
variability. Partnerships with the government (especially provincial), schools and NGOs are
important to share and disseminate information on climate change, variability and sea level rise
and its consequences on the lives of the people.

CONCLUSION

The current knowledge and understanding of climate change, variability and sea level rise poses
tremendous challenges to the country's environment, economy and the comfort of its people in
the long term. Improving the understanding and communicating of the science, impacts,
adaptation and mitigation of climate change and variability through the education, training and
awareness will facilitate appropriate policy developments in this area. One way to do this is to
set up a sustainable development network that links NGO and community based initiatives
around the country. Such as awareness raising, needs assessment, project planning, leadership
skills, etc., to provide better access to resources and information.

70
 CHAPTER 7

PROJECTIONS, POLICIES AND PLANS

INTRODUCTION

The environmental legislation of PNG provides for environmental planning measures to be

included as an integral component of project planning for developments with significant
environmental risk. Specific areas covered by the legislation include mechanisms for licensing of
contaminants discharged into the environment as well as planning and regulating the use of
water resources. An Environmental Bill, still in draft form, provides statutory tools, procedures
and processes to enable local and provincial governments to formulate by that are within the
object of the Act. Environmental codes of practice and guidelines provide a means to define
practices for specific sectors, including hydrocarbon storage, oil palm processing, roads and
bridges, landfill and sewage.

With the redirection of funding to the provinces, government organisations responsible for the
environment such as OEC now only retain the responsibility for policy and technical advisory
support. Like all other government agencies, the OEC has been restructured and its activities
streamlined, incorporating ways and means of increasing revenue.

POLICY DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN THE AREA OF CLIMATE CHANGE

COASTAL AND MARINE AREAS

• Protection of critical ecosystems

• Protection of towns and assets
• Land use policies
• Control of erosion

WATER RESOURCES

• Water resource management

• Catchment management
• Alternative water supply
• Flood control

AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY

• Community sustainability programmes (e.g. in involving landowners with spin-off and non
core activities)
• Sustainable production systems
• Research
• Land Use policies

HEALTH

• Control of diseases, particularly vector borne diseases such as malaria and cholera
• Poverty reduction

71
FISHERIES

• Stronger regional collaboration

• Modeling and research
• Fleet management
• Development of a fishing industry that is internationally competitive, generates employment,
expands local food supplies and reduces imports.

TRENDS AND POLICY MEASURES

FUTURE POPULATION TRENDS

• Increasing population density, especially in urban areas, Highlands, East Sepik and East
New Britain Provinces as well as some other coastal areas, flood prone areas and marginal
lands.
• Greater social demand for services such as health, education and job creation
• Land area per person will continue to decrease, especially in urban centers
• Increasing infrastructure
• Changes in demographic profile with a large youthful population base, more alienated from
traditional structures, with different standard of living expectations.

POLICY MEASURES

• Reduce population growth and maintain it at a sustainable level and assess requirements for
future levels of public service and infrastructure.
• Increase spacing between birth to realize health and welfare benefits to women and children
• Conduct public information and awareness campaigns, improved primary care services,
increased counseling and improved contraception.

FUTURE ECONOMIC TRENDS

• Subsistence agriculture will continue to be important

• Continued dependence on natural resources and foreign aid.
• Growing indebtedness likely to increase pressure on natural assets
• Revenue base insufficient to meet planned expenditure
• Possible higher returns from offshore pelagic fish stocks.

POLICY MEASURES

• Organic Law which will bring about greater decentralization of powers, resources and
responsibilities to the Provincial and Local Levels of governments.

FUTURE ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS

• Environmental degradation in densely populated areas

• Increase in deforestation
• Increase in problems of waste disposal
• Lack of adherence to sustainable parameters in natural resource use leading to increases in
rural impoverishment.

72
POLICY MEASURES

• Increased outsourcing of conservation initiatives and some responsibilities to NGOs and

local communities.
• Strengthening of the OEC through training of staff, review of the various Acts, design of
policy guidelines for environmental monitoring and legislation and enforcement processes.
• Development of specific policies such as the National Environment and Conservation policy,
NGO - OEC Partnership policy, which aims to guide cooperation between the two parties in
order to maximize benefits to landowners. The National Biodiversity Strategic Action Plan
and PNGBioNET research programmes, which are aimed at protecting and using plants and
animals on an ecologically sustainable basis should be promoted and supported.
• Enactment of the Environment Bill.
• Introduction of a moratorium on all new forestry licenses, extensions and conversions and to
review all existing licenses, that logging practices are carried out in a sustainable way and
that all landowners get their fair share of benefits from resource use.

FUTURE SOCIO-CULTURAL TRENDS

• Highly skewed income distribution and social problems, especially in urban areas
• Increase in preference to imported foods
• Increases in non-communicable diseases with nutritional and lifestyle changes

POLICY MEASURES

• Future application of social impact assessment

CONCLUSION

In light of predicted impacts of climate change such as the flooding of low-lying islands and
lowland areas, the possible increase in frequency and intensity of strong tropical cyclones, heavy
rainfalls, etc., the following political and economical strategies should be taken into
considerations, not only within the country, but also within the Pacific region:

• Increase efforts to strengthen the abilities of local institutions and communities to effectively
deal with climate change impacts, including other social and economic development issues;

• Increase in the amount of responsibility and degree of authority given to regional and
international institutions, and key national communities which are in a better position or are
more capable of administering the affairs of island communities that are more likely to suffer
social and economic impacts brought about by climate change;

• Increase efforts to develop more effective systems of extracting and sharing resources and
experiences within and between island states at all levels. This is especially important in the
provision of basic services for people who may migrate away from low-lying islands and
lowland areas, which would be at higher risk from the impacts of sea level rise.

73
 REFERENCES

Bualia, L. & Sullivan, M. E. 1990. The impacts of possible global warming generated sea
level rise on selected coastal environments in Papua New Guinea. In J. C Pernetta &
P.J Hughes (eds) Implications of expected climatic changes in the South Pacific
Region: an overview. UNEP Regional Seas Report and Studies 128:193-199.

Commonwealth of Australia. 1992. The Papua New Guinean Economy. Prospects for
Recovery, Reform and Sustained Growth. International Development Issues No. 27.
Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra. 133 pp.

Conservation International 1993. Biodiversity Priorities for Papua New Guinea. A Report
for the GovPNG prepared by Conservation International and funded by the US
Biodiversity Support Program. Washington, D.C.

Department of Environment and Conservation. 1995. Papua New Guinea Country

Study on Biological Diversity. Eds. N. Sekhran and S. Miller. A study prepared by the
Department of Environment and Conservation, Conservation Resource Centre and the
Africa Centre for Resources and Environment. 438 pp.

Government of Papua New Guinea. 1994. Economic and Development Policies. Volume
1. Presented by Sir Julius Chan on the occasion of the 1994 Budget.

Government of Papua New Guinea. 1994. Yumi Wankain. Report of the United Nations
Joint Inter-Agency Mission to Papua New Guinea on Sustainable Development.
72 pp.

Government of Papua New Guinea. 1996. Medium Term Development Strategy 1997 –
2002: Bridge Into the 21st Century. Presented to Parliament by Hon Moi Avei,
Minister for National Planning.

Government of Papua New Guinea. 2000. Economic and Development Policies. Volume 1.
Presented by Sir Mekere Morauta on the occasion of the 2000 budget.

Government of Papua New Guinea. 2000. The State of Education in Papua New Guinea.
Education Reform Facilitating and Monitoring Unit, National Department of
Education. 88 pp.

IPCC, OECD and IEA 1997. Greenhouse Gas inventory Workbook: Revised 1996 IPCC
Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, edited by Houghton, J.T., L.G.
Meira Filho, B. Lim. K. Teanton, J.Mamaty, Y. Bonduki, D. Griggs and B.A.
Callander.

IPCC. 1998. IPCC Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change. San
Jose, Costa Rica, 29 March to 1 April, 1998. Ed. D. C MacIver, Canada. 55 pp.

McAlpine J. & Quigley, J. 1998. Forest Resources of Papua New Guinea. Summary
Statistics from the Forest Inventory Mapping (FIM) System. Prepared for AusAID
and the Papua New Guinea National Forest Service. 14 pp.

74
Mitchell, W., Chitleborough J., Ronai, B. and Lennon, G.W. 2000. Sea Level Rise in
Australia and the Pacific. Paper presented at the Pacific Islands Conference on
Climate Variability and Sea Level Rise, at the National Auditorium, Rarotonga, Cook
Islands, 3-7 April, 2000.

Natera. G. P. 1999. Malaria: Current and Future Trends. Produced for the Papua New
Guinea Climate Change Assistance Project.

Nix, H A., Faith, D.P., Hutchinson, M.F., Margules, C.R., West, J., Allison, A., Kesteven,
J.L., Natera, G., Slater, W., Stein, J.L., Walker, P (2000). The Biorap Toolbox – A
National Study of Biodiversity Assessment and Planning for Papua New Guinea,
Consultancy Report to the World Bank, Centre for Resource & Environmental Studies
(CRES), Australian National University (ANU), 48 pp.

Papua New Guinea Climate Change Assistance Programme (PNGCCAP). In prep.

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments. Coastal Zones of Papua New Guinea: The
East Hiri Coast, Central Province, Papua New Guinea.

Piddington, K. Baines, G. Barry, G. & Huber, M. 1997. Environment Programming

Mission to Papua New Guinea. Report prepared for the UNDP. 84 pp.

Saulei, S.M. In prep. Mitigation assessment in Papua New Guinea, PNGCCAP, OEC,
Waigani

Saunders, J.C. 1993. Agricultural Land Use of Papua New Guinea. Explanatory Notes to
Map. PNGRIS Publication No. 1. CSIRO and AusAID. 12 pp.

Sinclair Knight Merz. 2000. Solid Waste Charcterisation Study and Management Plan
for Papua New Guinea. South Pacific Regional Environment Programme and the
European Union. Fiji. 46 pp.

UNDP & Government of Papua New Guinea. 1997. Country Strategy Note 1997 – 2001.
Sustainable Human Development: Integrating economic, social and environmental
development in Papua New Guinea. 26 pp.

Unisearch Papua New Guinea. 1991. UNCED Papua New Guinea National Report.
Prepared for the Government of Papua New Guinea. University of Papua New
Guinea, Port Moresby. 178 pp.

Wilmott, B, Natera G. and Sabi, J. 1999. Vulnerability and Disaster Classifications:

Identification and Manipulation of PNGRIS Data sets, including Land Use Updates.
Report produced for Papua New Guinea Climate Change Assistance Programme. 22
pp.

WWF. 1993. Melanesian Forest Conservation Review. Sydney, Australia. 49 pp.

75