1 Valuing Cash Flows

1 Valuing Cash Flows
“Visualizing” cash flows.
CF1 CFT
6 6
-
t=0 t=1 t=T time
CF0
Example. Drug company develops a flu vaccine.
• Strategy A: To bring to market in 1 year, invest $1 B (billion)

now and returns $500 M (million), $400 M and $300 M in
years 1, 2 and 3 respectively.
• Strategy B: To bring to market in 2 years, invest $200 M in

years 0 and 1. Returns $300 M in years 2 and 3.
Which strategy creates more value?
Problem. How to value/compare CF streams.

1.1 Future Value (FV)
How much will $1 today be worth in one year?
Current interest rate is r, say, 4%.
• $1 investable at a rate of return r = 4%.
• FV in 1 year is
FV = 1 + r = $1.04.
• FV in t years is
FV = $1 × (1+r) × · · · × (1+r)
= (1+r)t.
Example. Bank pays an annual interest of 4% on 2-year CDs

and you deposit $10,000. What is your balance two years later?
FV = 10, 000 × (1 + 0.04)2 = $10, 816.

1.2 Present Value (PV)
We can ask the question in reverse (interest rate r = 4%).
What is the PV of $1 received a year from now?
• Consider putting away 1/1.04 today. A year later receive:

1
× (1+0.04) = 1.
1.04
• The PV of $1 received a year from now is:
1 1
= .
1+r 1 + 0.04
• The present value of $1 received t years from now is:
1
PV = .
(1+r)t
Example. (A) $10 M in 5 years or (B) $15 M in 15 years. Which

is better if r = 5%?
10
PV A = = 7.84.
1.055
15
PV B = = 7.22.
1.0515
Solution to Example. Flu Vaccine.
Assume that r = 5%.
Strategy A:
Time 0 1 2 3
Cash Flow -1,000 500.0 400.0 300.0
Present Value -1,000 476.2 362.8 259.2
Total PV 98.2
Strategy B:
Time 0 1 2 3
Cash Flow -200 -200.0 300.0 300.0
Present Value -200 -190.5 272.1 259.2
Total PV 140.8
Firm should choose strategy B, and its value would increase by

$140.8 M.
2 Compound Interest Rates
2.1 APR and EAR
Sometimes, interest rate is quoted as an annual percentage rate

(APR) with an associated compounding interval.
Example. Bank of America’s one-year CD offers 5% APR, with

semi-annual compounding. If you invest $10,000, how much
money do you have at the end of one year? What is the actual
annual rate of interest you earn?
• Quoted APR of rAPR = 5% is not the actual annual rate.
• It is only used to compute the 6-month interest rate as follows:
(5%)(1/2) = 2.5%.
• Investing $10,000, at the end of one year you have:
10, 000(1 + 0.025)(1 + 0.025) = 10, 506.25.
In the second 6-month period, you earn interest on interest.
• The actual annual rate, the effective annual rate (EAR), is
rEAR = (1 + 0.025)2 − 1 = 5.0625%.
Annual rates typically refer to EARs.

2.2 Compounding
Let rAPR be the annual percentage rate and k be the number of

compounding intervals per year. One dollar invested today yields:
rAPR k
1+
k
dollars in one year.
Effective annual rate, rEAR is given by:

rAPR k
(1 + rEAR) = 1 +
k
or
rAPR k
rEAR = 1+ − 1.
k
Example. Suppose rAPR = 5%:
k Value of $1 in a year rEAR

1 1.050000 5.0000%
2 1.050625 5.0625%
12 1.051162 5.1162%
365 1.051268 5.1267%
8,760 1.051271 5.1271%
.. .. ..
. . .
∞ e 0.05 = 1.051271 5.1271%
Here, e ≈ 2.71828.
3 Real vs. Nominal CFs and Rates
Nominal vs. Real CFs
Inflation is 4% per year. You expect to receive $1.04 in one year,

what is this CF really worth next year?
The real or inflation adjusted value of $1.04 in a year is
Nominal CF 1.04
Real CF = = = $1.00.
1 + inflation 1 + 0.04
In general, at annual inflation rate of i we have
(Nominal CF)t
(Real CF)t = .
(1 + i)t
Nominal vs. Real Rates
• Nominal interest rates - typical market rates.
• Real interest rates - interest rates adjusted for inflation.
Example. $1.00 invested at a 6% interest rate grows to $1.06

next year. If inflation is 4% per year, then the real value is
$1.06/1.04 = 1.019. The real return is 1.9%.
1 + rnominal
1 + rreal = .
1+i
Example. Sales is $1M this year and is expected to have real
growth of 2% next year. Inflation is expected to be 4%. The
appropriate nominal discount rate is 5%. What is the present
value of next year’s sales revenue?
• Next year’s nominal sales forecast:
1 × 1.02 × 1.04 = 1.0608.
1.0608
PV = = 1.0103.
1.05
• Next year’s real sales forecast:
1 × 1.02 = 1.02.
Real discount rate:

1 + rn 1.05
rreal = −1= − 1 = 0.9615%.
1+i 1.04
1.02
PV = = 1.0103.
1.009615
Important Rules:
• Discount nominal CFs by nominal discount rates.
• Discount real CFs by real discount rates.

4 Shortcuts to Special Cash Flows
4.1 Annuity
A A A
6 6 6
···
-
t=0 1 2 T time
Today is t = 0 and cash flow starts at t = 1.
A A A
PV (Annuity) = + + · · · +
1+r (1+r)2 1+r)T

1 1
= A× 1− .
r (1+r)T
Example. An insurance company sells an annuity of $10,000 per

year for 20 years. Suppose r = 5%. What should the company
sell it for?

1 1
P V = 10, 000 × × 1− = 10, 000 × 12.46
0.05 1.0520
= 124, 622.1.
FV (Annuity) = PV (Annuity) × (1+r)T .

4.2 Annuity with Growth
A A(1+g) A(1+g)T
6 6 6
···
-
t=0 1 2 T time
PV (growing annuity)

1 1+g (1+g)T −1
= A× + + ··· +
1+r (1+r)2 (1+r)T
⎧ T
⎨ 1 1 − 1+g if r = g
r−g 1+r
= A×
⎩ T
1+r
if r = g.
Example. Saving for retirement - Suppose that you are now 30

and would like $2 million at age 65 for your retirement. You would
like to save each year an amount that grows by 5% each year.
How much should you start saving now, assuming that r=8%?
2, 000, 000
A= = 6, 472.97.
308.977
4.3 Perpetuity
A A A
6 6 6
···
-
t=0 1 2 3 time
A perpetuity is an annuity with infinite maturity.
Example. You just won the lottery and it pays $100,000 a year
for 20 years. Are you a millionaire? Suppose that r = 10%.

1 1
PV = 100, 000 × 1− = 100, 000 × 8.514
0.10 1.1020
= 851, 356.
• What if the payments last for 50 years?

1 1
PV = 100, 000 × 1− = 100, 000 × 9.915
0.10 1.1050
= 991, 481.
• How about forever - a perpetuity?
PV = 100, 000/0.10 = 1, 000, 000.
A
PV (Perpetuity) = .
r
4.4 Perpetuity with Growth
A A(1+g) A(1+g)2
6 6 6
···
-
t=0 1 2 3 time
A
PV (Perpetuity with growth) =
r−g
where A is the first CF one period from now.
Example. Super Growth Inc. will pay an annual dividend next

year of $3. After analyzing the company, you expect the dividend
after that to grow at the rate of 5% per year forever. Also for
companies of this risk class, the expected return is 10%. What
should be Super Growth’s price per share?
3 3(1 + 0.05) 3(1 + 0.05)2

PV = + + + ···
1.10 1.102 1.103
3
=
0.10 − 0.05
= 60.
Example. Mortgage calculation in the U.S.
• Pay 20% down payment, and borrow the rest from the bank
using the property as collateral.
• Pay a fixed monthly payment for the life of the mortgage.
• Have the option to prepay the mortgage anytime before the

maturity date of the mortgage.
Suppose that you bought a house for $500,000 with $100,000

down payment and financed the rest with a thirty-year fixed rate
mortgage at 8.5% APR compounded monthly.
• The monthly payment M is determined by

360
M
400, 000 =
[1 + (0.085/12)]t
t=1

M 1
= 1−
(0.085/12) [1 + (0.085/12)]360
(0.9212)
= M× .
(0.085/12)
M = $3, 075.65.
• Your effective annual interest rate (EAR):
[1 + (0.085/12)]12 − 1 = 1.08839 − 1 = 8.839%.

The monthly payments are as follows:
t (month) Principal Interest Sum Remaining P.

1 242.37 2833.33 3075.7 399,757.63
2 244.08 2831.62 3075.7 399,513.55
3 245.81 2829.89 3075.7 399,267.74
.. .. .. .. ..
. . . . .
120 561.29 2514.42 3075.7 354,415.49
121 565.26 2510.44 3075.7 353,850.23
.. .. .. .. ..
. . . . .
240 1309.27 1766.43 3075.7 248,068.95
241 1318.54 1757.16 3075.7 246,750.41
.. .. .. .. ..
. . . . .
359 3032.60 43.10 3075.7 3,054.07
360 3054.07 21.63 3075.7 0.00
• Total monthly payment is the same for each month.
• The percentage of principal payment increases over time.
• The percentage of interest payment decreases over time.

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1 Valuing Cash Flows

“Visualizing” cash flows.

Example. Drug company develops a ﬂu vaccine.

• Strategy A: To bring to market in 1 year, invest $1 B (billion)

• Strategy B: To bring to market in 2 years, invest $200 M in

Which strategy creates more value?

Problem. How to value/compare CF streams.

How much will $1 today be worth in one year?

Current interest rate is r, say, 4%.

• $1 investable at a rate of return r = 4%.

Example. Bank pays an annual interest of 4% on 2-year CDs

FV = 10, 000 × (1 + 0.04)2 = $10, 816.

We can ask the question in reverse (interest rate r = 4%).

What is the PV of $1 received a year from now?

• Consider putting away 1/1.04 today. A year later receive:

Example. (A) $10 M in 5 years or (B) $15 M in 15 years. Which

Assume that r = 5%.

Firm should choose strategy B, and its value would increase by

2.1 APR and EAR

Sometimes, interest rate is quoted as an annual percentage rate

Example. Bank of America’s one-year CD oﬀers 5% APR, with

• Quoted APR of rAPR = 5% is not the actual annual rate.

• It is only used to compute the 6-month interest rate as follows:

• Investing $10,000, at the end of one year you have:

10, 000(1 + 0.025)(1 + 0.025) = 10, 506.25.

In the second 6-month period, you earn interest on interest.

• The actual annual rate, the eﬀective annual rate (EAR), is

rEAR = (1 + 0.025)2 − 1 = 5.0625%.

Annual rates typically refer to EARs.

Let rAPR be the annual percentage rate and k be the number of

Eﬀective annual rate, rEAR is given by:

Example. Suppose rAPR = 5%:

k Value of $1 in a year rEAR

Inﬂation is 4% per year. You expect to receive $1.04 in one year,

The real or inﬂation adjusted value of $1.04 in a year is

In general, at annual inﬂation rate of i we have

Nominal vs. Real Rates

• Nominal interest rates - typical market rates.

• Real interest rates - interest rates adjusted for inﬂation.

Example. $1.00 invested at a 6% interest rate grows to $1.06

• Next year’s nominal sales forecast:

1 × 1.02 × 1.04 = 1.0608.

Real discount rate:

• Discount nominal CFs by nominal discount rates.

• Discount real CFs by real discount rates.

Today is t = 0 and cash ﬂow starts at t = 1.

Example. An insurance company sells an annuity of $10,000 per

FV (Annuity) = PV (Annuity) × (1+r)T .

Example. Saving for retirement - Suppose that you are now 30

A perpetuity is an annuity with inﬁnite maturity.

• What if the payments last for 50 years?

• How about forever - a perpetuity?

PV = 100, 000/0.10 = 1, 000, 000.

where A is the ﬁrst CF one period from now.

Example. Super Growth Inc. will pay an annual dividend next

3 3(1 + 0.05) 3(1 + 0.05)2

• Pay a ﬁxed monthly payment for the life of the mortgage.

• Have the option to prepay the mortgage anytime before the