東日本大震災

Higashi Nihon Dai-Shinsai

Nihon Jishin
(Japanese Earthquakes)

Copyright, April 25th, 2011

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 東日本大震災
Higashi Nihon Dai-Shinsai
Nihon Jishin
(Japan Earthquakes)
th
Copyright April 25 , 2011

I have received numerous requests from

old friends in Japan asking what to
expect now on the earthquake front
since the latest quake was on target for the
next BIG one. It is very unfortunate that
The loss to humanity is far greater than
anyone can imagine for the full scope of the
model has never been made fully public. It
is true that the model projected the next
great earthquake period would begin in the
while the data originally supplied to us on Miyagi-Tōhoku Prefecture region that we
every tremor in Japan was part of the vast warned on a timing interval was about 31.4
computer database, those who seek to years (Pi) from the June 12th, 1978 Jishin
manipulate markets to ensure they will (7.7 magnitude)(1978.446) last recorded
always be profitable, were more interested there. It was also a question of rising
in New York dominating the financial world INTENSITY that was critical to that forecast.
with no regard for what they destroyed. This placed the target window opening up

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2009.846, ideally November 7th, 2009. The By inputting the entire earthquake, weather
first shock came a bit early registering 6.9 in and volcano data into the computer, the
magnitude on June 14, 2008 at Iwate- correlations with the economy and
Miyagi, the known as the Nairiku Jishin. migration of man was uncanny. It seemed
While this was close to the next region that that it was Murphy’s Law – whatever could
was due, there has been 8 major Jishin go wrong, just did, shifting the vicissitudes
since this window opened in Japan. Yet 5 of fortune distinctly against empires,
have taken place in the Miyagi-Tōhoku nations, and city states. Thus, for these
region. For you see, there are quiet periods reasons, this was an interesting, and vital
and then there are intensely active periods input into our computer model. Japan was
with increased frequency of occurrences certainly no exception.
that are even wider distributed.

August 9, 2009 Izu Islands earthquake (33.144°N, 138.040°E) 6.9-7.1

August 11, 2009 Tokai Area Earthquake (33.8°N, 138.50°E) 6.5-6.6
February 26, 2010 Ryūkyū Islands earthquake (25.902°N, 128.417°E) 7.0
December 21, 2010 Bonin Islands Earthquake (26.866°N, 143.739°E) 7.4
March 9, 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake (38.424°N, 142.836°E) 7.2
March 11, 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake (38.510°N, 142.792°E) 9.0
Aftershock almost 1 hr. later (38.106°N, 144.553°E) 7.1
April 7, 2011 Miyagi Earthquake (38.253°N, 141.640°E) 7.1

1906 San Francisco Earthquake

Earthquakes, Volcanoes and weather have disrupted causing the Panic of 1907 that
been altering the course of economies both contributed to the creation of the Federal
in modern as well as ancient times. The Reserve. Obviously, a correlation of natural
1906 San Francisco Earthquake was disasters to the economy reveals striking
responsible for the Panic of 1907. It led to contributions. This does not end with
investigations that revealed that the earthquakes, but also extends to volcanoes
internal regional capital flows were as well as weather.

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 The Volcanic Eruption of Thera ca. 1628 BC
Modern Santorini

In ancient times, it was the eruption of There has been considerable speculation
Thera at modern Santorini that altered the surrounding this event during the eruption
course of history. It was this destruction of Thera (Santorini) ca. 1628 BC. Some have
that caused the fall of the Minoan society attributed to it the plagues recorded in
disbursing its power to Babylon and Greece. Exodus against Egypt in the Bible as being
The devastating volcanic eruption of Thera caused by this event, such as blocking the
has become the most famous single event sun. The Biblical dating of Moses in Egypt c.
in the ancient world and the Aegean before 1500 BC +/-50 has been regarded as closely
even the fall of Troy. It may have been one placed at about the same time period.
of the largest volcanic eruptions on Earth at There certainly would have been tsunamis
least within the last few thousand years. Its caused by the explosion that would dwarf
magnitude or force is estimated at 7 on the what took place in Japan. Thus, it has been
VEI (volcanic explosivity index). New argued that it was a tsunami that swept
archaeological discoveries in 2006 have away the army of Pharaoh in Exodus.
revealed that the Santorini event was truly Others have struggled to find this event at
massive expelling some 61 km of magma Thera that gave rise to the story of Atlantis.
and rock into the Earth's atmosphere Excavations resemble Plato’s description
producing an estimated 100 cubic and thus many believe this event was the
kilometers of tephra. This eruption blotted backdrop to Plato’s story of Atlantis. Others
the sun, altered the weather and shifted the still point to Antarctica at the South Pole.
political power of the day.

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 The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora

The Thera Eruption at Santorini has been

likened to the 1815 Mount Tambora
Eruption that was the most powerful in
modern recorded history and classified as a
VEI-7 event. Mount Tambora is situated on
the island of Sumbawa in Indonesia. The
eruption was followed by between six
months and three years of increased
steaming and small phreatic eruptions
(intensity). The eruption column lowered
global temperatures, and some experts 1883 Krakatoa Eruption
believe this led to global cooling and
worldwide harvest failures. Sometimes this The best known eruption post 1815 is
was known as the Year Without a Krakatoa that culminated in a series of
Summer as snow fell in New York during massive explosions on August 26–27, 1883.
July. There was also the 181 AD Hatepe This was among the most violent volcanic
eruption (Taupo eruption) at Lake Taupo in events in modern and recorded history.
New Zealand that turned the sky red both in Observing these events in isolation provides
China and in ancient Rome. It is the largest no understanding of the dynamic nature
known eruption in that region in history. behind them and just gibberish for cocktail
This was also a magnitude 7 and is believed parties. Like markets, everything is
to have exceeded Thera by about 20% as to interconnected. Events on a lessor scale,
its size. It is possible that the Tianchi such as Mt. Saint Helens, merely disrupt
Eruption (Heaven Lake) at Baekdu the economy and perhaps contribute to the
Mountain in 969 AD on the border between overall pre-existing inflationary trend. They
China and Korea released more material do not alter the trend already in motion.
into the atmosphere than Thera. We have But they can be the last straw that breaks
seen nothing like these events since 1815. the camel’s back for they often alter
weather patterns near-term.

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 Pompeii Eruption 79AD

There are such events that merely

Herodotus contribute to an overall trend. They are not
(c. 484 BC – c. 425 BC). that final event which brings catastrophe
upon the people for they lack intensity.
According to the historian Herodotus
Pompeii in 79AD was such an event that
(4.149-165), following a DROUGHT OF
disrupted the economy and horrified the
SEVEN YEARS that struck Thera (Santorini),
people, but it did not destroy the Roman
the city was forced to send out colonists
Empire. Indeed, Pompeii took the life of a
who founded a number of other cities in
great man, Gaius Plinius Secundus (23 AD –
northern Africa, including Cyrene. You will
August 25, 79 AD), known as Pliny the
also note the Biblical reference to the
Elder, who was a Roman author, naturalist,
forecast that there would be a 7 year
natural philosopher, naval and army
drought in Egypt by Joseph. There have
commander in the early Roman Empire. His,
been numerous droughts over the centuries
nephew, Gaius Plinius Caecilius Secundus
that run the course of 7 years in duration.
(61 AD – ca. 112 AD), known as Pliny the
Younger, was a lawyer, author, and
There is a tremendous correlation between
magistrate of Ancient Rome, who had
earthquakes, volcanoes, and weather with
witnessed the destruction of Pompeii and
the rise and fall of empires, nations, and
the death of his uncle while on a ship in the
city states. There are some events that just
harbor that day of 24 August, 79 AD. Pliny
altered the course of the economy rather
the Younger watched the powerful
than bring it crashing down.
eruption of Vesuvius that buried three
cities alive and left us with an account of his
What is vital to understand, we are not in
observations.
control of everything. We are more often
than not just a back-seat driver who thinks
There are such events that profoundly alter
we can bark out orders. What if the entire
the course of a trend or accelerate it such
system is a vast complex adaptive network
as did Pompeii. In modern times, it was the
where we are simply delusional in assuming
San Francisco Earthquake of 1906. These
such vast power? What if the driver is deaf
events do not bring down the house, but
and does not hear a damn thing we say?
they help to push it along the path.

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 The great drought of the 14th century
contributed to the creation of Capitalism
helping to end serfdom along with the Black
Plague. There was the 20th century 7 year
drought creating the Dust Bowl during the
Great Depression. These are nearly
IDENTICAL in number and duration.

In the instant case of Japan, the economy

was pointing lower for a 26 year decline
from the 1989.95 high. This tends to suggest
that Japan could still be acting as a leading
indicator in reality, pointing the way into
2016. We may see it heat up on this score
by 2013.

On September 15th, 2009, I first published

this list of major earthquakes covering the
period 365AD to 1989 for a total of 1624
years with 63 events that followed the first
in 365AD.

1624 /63 = 25.77777778

(3 * 8.6 = 25.8)

Even if we take the Great Cycle, the

Precession of the Equinox used by the
Maya of about 25,800 years, this also is a
derivative of the 8.6 year cycle. Everything is
truly interrelated and connected to the
point it becomes impossible to consider
anything in isolation. Between now and
2020.05, we appear to be on a collision
course with nature with rising intensity. We
will especially see erratic weather swings
and rising natural disasters. Unfortunately
for Japan, the window has not yet closed.

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The Nature of CyclesTM

When one pictures cycles in their mind, the cycles. Spectrum analysis in chemistry and
pattern that emerges is that of the typical sine physics, a method of analyzing the chemical
and cosign waves. These are picture-perfect properties of matter from bands in their visible
structural formations for the flow of energy
spectrum, when applied to the economic data,
such as in a sound wave. The limited scope of
the symmetrically structure waves leads one this confirms the existence of long waves in
astray in their investigation and observation of economic activity. An spectrum analyzer in
cyclical activity. In a book I had written about 15 signal processing is a device/algorithm that
years ago but hadn’t published, The Nature of identifies a frequency domain representation of
CyclesTM, I dealt with this subject in detail (soon a time domain in a signal. This can be
to be released in E-Book). The sine wave or accomplished typically by means of Fourier
sinusoid is a mathematical function that
transform. Spectral analysis (Frequency Domain
describes a smooth repetitive oscillation. It
occurs often in pure mathematics, as well as Analysis) in statistics is a procedure that
physics, signal processing, and of course decomposes a given time series into a spectrum
electrical engineering. Unfortunately, it is NOT or matrix of cycles of different wavelengths.
the typical economic wave structure, which Because energy moves in a cyclical pattern
becomes a far more dynamic adaptive structure much as a snake moves without hands and feet
involving multiple inputs that collectively side-to-side, nuclear and particle physics also
produce a wave formation.
display characteristic features such as spectral
While Kondratiev Waves have been called line, edges, and various physical processes
supercycles, great surges, long waves, K-waves producing continuum shapes. Cycles come in
or the long economic cycle, none of these many different shapes in physics and in
descriptions go beyond the basic image of economics, there are also multiple shapes as
well.

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Here is an illustration of feeding numerous days
of tick data (intraday trade by trade) into the
sample for cyclical testing. Not merely are
cycles verified to exist, we also get different
wave shapes based upon intensity (volatility). In
other words, there can be low intensity
economic declines we would call a recession.
And then there is the Great Wave like that of
the Great Depression. Close analysis reveals
that these Great Waves are created by the
combination of numerous waves converging in The Japanese have long recognized the
the same time space coordinates. Thus, creating existence of tsunamis and this has been
a model on only one market may work nicely captured in the famous painting, the Great
during normal times, but when confronted by a Wave. It is the intensity of the event that
convergence, the Great Wave appears. creates the tsunami, not the event itself

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It is this combination effect that produces great volcanoes, the wavelength is typically two to
waves that are monumental in scope and differ three times the wavelength between
structurally from a normal boom bust cycle. To earthquakes. This is why volcanoes eruptions
comprehend when these type of waves unfold, tend to be measured in 100s of years between
requires the multidiscipline approach of events. Earthquakes, on the other hand, are far
correlating all variable components. This is what more common just as recessions are far more
produces the Great Wave – the combination of common than Great Depressions economically.
factors converging upon the same time-space
These are important basic first steps into
coordinates. Consequently, the SHAPE OF
understand the Nature of Cycles TM for
THE WAVE is strikingly different between
comprehending HOW a wave will unfold is
individual variables. Both in economics as well
everything to understanding our environment
as events such a weather and earthquakes,
and what the future truly holds.
intensity plays a vital role. In events such as

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