The New Gann Swing Chartist
The New Gann Swing Chartist
The New Gann Swing Chartist
CLASSIC TECHNIQUES
The New
Gann Swing Chartist
This is more than an article that teaches technical the trend has changed direction, then that signal
analysis. It’s also a story that tells how one profes- should be the same reason for you to take action in the
sional trader, a New Market Wizard, came into market.
possession of a rare technical method, and the steps he In this article, I present a unique technical analysis
took to turn it into a valid trading plan. Here, then, ismethod as well as a trading plan called the Basic
Robert Krausz’s Basic trading plan, one of four pub- trading plan. I will explain the technical method,
lished in his book, A W.D. Gann Treasure Discovered. called Gann swing trading, providing both defini-
tions of the trend direction as well as when the trend
direction has changed. The Basic will have rules
covering important details such as entering and exit-
ing the market, techniques for managing your posi-
T o many market participants, tech- tion, stopping your loss and more.
nical analysis is the foundation
of any technical trading plan,
when in fact, market analysis
But before I begin, let me tell you how I came into
possession of this technical concept.
Rondinone explained that the courses were typed on W.D. trading plan? A valid trading plan must have some minimum
Gann’s letterhead, not in the usual printed format. In addition, components to earn the right to be called valid.
they had been signed and dated by Gann in his purple ink. All At the simplest level, a plan must define:
five courses were in their original binding. After much hag- 1 Market direction. (The general direction of the market;
gling, we settled on the price of $1.00 (yes, you read that for example, the overall trend.)
correctly, one dollar).
Rondinone’s motives were clear, as he stated: “I want these 2 Tradable trend. (The trade direction — in other words,
manuscripts in the hands of a trader and researcher who the immediate swing.)
appreciates their real value and will use them.” I was amazed 3 Support and resistance points. (Exact zones.)
at my good fortune. The entire collection consisted of five 4 Action points. (Entry-exit-pyramid rules.)
courses and two unfinished pages, dated April 18, 1955, with 5 Money management techniques. These should include
the heading: “Time Periods on the Master 7 Day Period for at least:
Soybeans.” Obviously, these were a work in progress, as Gann a Capital required for your plan.
passed away soon thereafter. b Stop and stop/reversal rules.
One method, though, caught my eye. It was the “Mechanical c Profit protection rules.
Method and Trend Indicator for Trading Grains,” and it shouted d Percentage of capital per trade. (This varies
to be studied first. I gave this method priority, and some of the according to the plan.)
results from that examination are what you will find here.
Before we continue, I want you to understand the importance With a trading plan that fits this description, you may be ready
of having a trading plan. to trade. Now, back to Gann’s mechanical method. Slowly, I
worked my way through the well-worn pages, making notes as
TRADING PLANS I went along. Imagine my surprise when I came to pages 11 and
After 20 years of trading, I find it almost impossible to trade 12 (page 11 is reproduced here) and saw that Gann had altered
without a plan that does not have fixed rules. If you do not have some of his original calculations and signed these alterations in
a set of fixed rules, you cannot do a backtest. Without a his distinctive and characteristic purple ink!
backtest, how do you know if your plan worked in the past? Just These alterations were fitted in between the paragraphs.
because the plan produced positive results in the past does not Although the original course is dated June 1933, the actual
guarantee success in the future. But I do guarantee that if the alterations were handwritten in early 1955. Gann thought it was
plan did not produce positive mathematical expectations dur- important enough to insert and sign it before he sent the course
ing the backtest, then it would never work in the future. to Rondinone. And what did Gann write? Very simply: “Use 2 day
Would you consider building a house without an architec- charts and rules better than 3 day. [Signed] W.D. Gann.”
tural plan? Of course not. Having no plan would lead to chaos. This hand-altered copy is the only one in existence, as far as I know.
The same thing applies to trading. So what constitutes a good Did Gann changing a three-day swing definition to a two-day
swing definition make the book a treasure? I could only come
to a conclusion by doing a comparative backtest on today’s
overheated markets using both daily charts and intraday peri-
ods, so that is exactly what I did.
I charted by hand a backtest of various markets, which
proved to me that W.D. Gann’s “new” two-day swing concept
provided two pieces of vital information: First, the trend
direction, and second, the points of support and resistance. The
manner was simple, yet brilliant.
What were the results? Not only did I find that it held up on
the daily chart, but the intraday results were also acceptable.
All of Gann’s swing concepts had to be pulled
together and integrated to formulate a mechani-
cal trading plan that was tradable and profit-
able. Those of you who have tried to do this will
know what I am talking about. Three points
must be mentioned:
1 Any valid plan of this mechanical nature must have
a simple philosophical basis. It can be geometric, math-
ematical or time-oriented, or any combination thereof.
2 Curve-fitting or overoptimizing is the kiss of death to any
mechanical trading plan. Unfortunately, there are pro-
Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc. 3
Stocks & Commodities V16:2 (57-66): The New Gann Swing Chartist by Robert Krausz, MH, BCHE
38% H
IF LONG B Retracement
of A - B DOWNSWING
Must be below
HiLo Activator
Live
Bar
C
HiLo Activator
A Sell Stop
FIGURE 1: UPSWING: FROM DOWN TO UP. The swing direction can change to FIGURE 2: DOWNSWING: FROM UP TO DOWN. The swing direction can change
up only if the market makes two consecutive higher highs. to down only if the market makes two consecutive lower lows.
UPTREND
CHANGE TO
DOWNTREND
CHANGE
TO UPTREND
DOWNTREND
FIGURE 3: UPTREND: TREND CHANGE FROM DOWN TO UP. Prices must take FIGURE 4: DOWNTREND: TREND CHANGE FROM UP TO DOWN. Prices must
out the nearest peak, and the trend was previously down. Here, the uptrend is take out the nearest valley and the trend was previously up. The downtrend is
shown as a solid line. shown as a dashed line.
SUPPORT RESISTANCE
PEAK
Resistance
Support
VALLEY
FIGURE 5: SUPPORT. Support is the valley of the previous clearly defined swing. FIGURE 6: RESISTANCE. Resistance is the peak of the previous clearly defined
As long as prices do not penetrate below the valley point, support is holding. This swing. As long as prices do not rise above the peak point, resistance is holding. If
valley point is the low of the previous swing. If prices penetrate below the valley, then prices rise above the resistance point, then resistance may be failing.
support may be failing.
PEAK
RISING VALLEYS
PEAK
VALLEY 2
FIGURE 7: RISING VALLEYS. Rising valleys are often the indication of a bottom FIGURE 8: DROPPING PEAKS. Tops may be indicated by declining peaks.
forming in the market.
grams out there that encourage system designers to do change to up only if the market makes two consecutive
just that. Robustness is the key. higher highs (Figure 1). Gann also needed higher lows for
3 The plan must be dynamic enough to change with the his swings to change direction. But in today’s fast comput-
market. erized markets, I do not use that qualifier.
• Downswing: From Up to Down. The swing direction can
The concepts and techniques embodied in the trading plan change to down only if the market makes two consecutive
presented here are based on these points and are similar to those lower lows (Figure 2). Both swings are applicable to
I use in my own personal trading, which includes incorporating any period.
multiple time frames and Fibonacci concepts.
• Uptrend: Trend Change from Down to Up. Prices must take
THE BASIC PLAN out the nearest peak, and the trend was previously down
Before we can discuss the rules, we must have a clear under- (Figure 3). In Figure 3, the uptrend is shown as a solid line.
standing of the definitions. An example is presented accompa-
• Downtrend: Trend Change from Up to Down. Prices must
nying each definition:
take out the nearest valley, and the trend was previously up
• Upswing: From Down to Up. The swing direction can (Figure 4). In Figure 4, the downtrend is shown as a dashed
Valley
As prices peak, you were
on full alert. After the peak, B
the trend changed.
Peak
Valley 3
FIBONACCI TRADER
Valley 2
FIGURE 9: IBM. Here, you can see a setup for a bottom in IBM using the rising FIGURE 10: T-BOND FUTURES. On August 12, the highest peak formed at point
valleys concept. The first valley formed when the market turned up from the low that A and then the valley at point B was completed, followed by short-term rise that
was established on April 4, 1997, valley 1. The market then formed a peak on April formed the peak at point C. The second peak was lower than the first, and this series
9. Two days later, the low of what was to be valley 2 was completed. When the of declining peaks indicated an important downtrend was under way.
market passed the April 9th peak, the trend had changed to up.
US BONDS 97/09 D-W-M 7/20/97 11:06 US BONDS 97/09 D-W-M 7/20/97 11:30 BUY STOP
115-00 115-00
Appears If
close
HiLo ACTIVATOR HiLo ACTIVATOR Below HiLo
114-16 114-16
END OF DAY REAL TIME
114-00 114-00
PLOT PLOT AS
1 PERIOD HORIZONTAL
FORWARD LINE,
ON THE
113-16 LIVE BAR 113-16
FIGURE 11: THE HI-LO ACTIVATOR. This indicator signals entry as well as the FIGURE 12: THE HI-LO ACTIVATOR. For real time, use the current day’s high (or
trailing stop. For end of day, the hi-lo activator is plotted one period forward as a low) in the calculation so that we have a price level to monitor during the day for real-
horizontal line, so that you have a horizontal price point to act with tomorrow. time action.
line. In addition, the definition of a trend change is the same point, resistance is holding (Figure 6). If prices rise above
for any period being analyzed. the resistance point, then resistance may be failing.
• Support: Support Is the Valley of the Previous Clearly
Defined Swing. As long as prices do not penetrate below the VALLEYS AND PEAKS
valley point, support is holding. This valley point is actually An important part of swing trading is understanding how rising
the low of the previous swing (Figure 5). If prices penetrate valleys (Figure 7) or dropping peaks (Figure 8) can forewarn of
below the valley, then support may be failing. a change in the trend. For example, take a look at Figure 9. You
can see a setup for a bottom in IBM using the rising valleys concept.
• Resistance: Resistance Is the Peak of the Previous Clearly
According to our rules, the first valley formed when the market
Defined Swing. As long as prices do not rise above the peak
turned up from the low established on April 4, 1997. We’ll call this
BASIC GANN SWING PLAN RULES 2 Bar must close below hi-lo activator. The sell-stop is two
Long Entry (Buying) ticks below the hi-lo activator.
Qualifiers (Setup)
1 Gann swing chart must be in an uptrend (solid line). Entry Rules (action points; use the one hit first)
2 The bar must close above the hi-lo activator. The buy stop is Rule 1 Sell when the bar closes below the hi-lo activator.
two ticks above the hi-lo activator. The sell-stop is two ticks below the hi-lo activator
(Figure 16).
Entry Rules (action points; use the one hit first) Rule 2 Sell when the Gann swing chart changes from a
Rule 1 Buy when the bar closes above the hi-lo activator. uptrend (solid line) to a downtrend (dashed line). The hi-
Your buy-stop is two ticks above the hi-lo activator lo activator buy-stop line must be above the bar (Figure
(Figure 13). 17).
Rule 2 Buy when the Gann swing chart changes from a Rule 3 Sell when the nearest valley is passed downward by
downtrend (dashed line) to an uptrend (solid line). two ticks. In addition, you must have the hi-lo activa-
The hi-lo activator sell-stop line must be below the tor buy-stop above the bar (Figure 18).
bar (Figure 14).
Rule 3 Buy when the nearest peak is passed by two ticks. In Profit Protection Rules (Longs and Shorts)
addition, you must have the hi-lo activator sell-stop 1 Take profit on all contracts if price closes above/below hi-lo
below the bar (Figure 15). activator (Figures 19 and 20).
2 38% Retracement Rule. Take profits on all contracts on any
Short Entry (Selling) 38% retracement of the current Gann swing. Do not wait for
Qualifiers (Setup) the close. The market must pass the hi-lo activator before
1 Gann swing chart must show a downtrend (dashed line). using this 38% retracement rule (Figures 21 and 22).
—R.K.
A
PEAK
FIGURE 13: UPTREND, BUY RULE 1. Buy on bar A provided the Gann swing chart FIGURE 14: TREND CHANGE, BUY RULE 2. Buy on bar A when prices pass the
shows an uptrend (solid line) The buy signal occurs on bar A when prices close previous peak, provided the hi-lo activator sell-stop line is below the bars.
above the hi-lo activator.
A
B HiLo
Activator
Sell Stop
FIGURE 15: UPTREND VIA PREVIOUS PEAK, BUY RULE 3. If the trend is up, then FIGURE 16: DOWNTREND, SELL RULE 1. Sell on bar A provided the Gann swing
you can buy when prices surpass the previous peak, provided the hi-lo activator is chart shows a downtrend (dashed line) The sell signal occurs on bar A when prices
below the bars. Action is taken intraday because you know the price level of the peak. close below the hi-lo activator.
HiLo Activator
Sell Stop
VALLEY
A
VALLEY
FIGURE 17: TREND CHANGE, SELL RULE 2. Sell on bar A when prices drop below FIGURE 18: DOWNTREND VIA PREVIOUS VALLEY, SELL RULE 3. If the trend
the previous valley, provided the hi-lo activator sell-stop line is above the bars. is down, you can sell when prices drop below the previous valley, provided the hi-
lo activator is above the bars. Action is taken intraday because you know the price
level of the valley.
Take
Profits A
on ALL
Contracts
Take
HiLo Activator Profits
Sell Stop On ALL
Contracts
FIGURE 19: PROFIT PROTECTION IF LONG, RULE 1. If prices close below the hi- FIGURE 20: PROFIT PROTECTION IF SHORT, RULE 1. If prices close above the
lo activator sell-stop line, then close out all long positions. hi-lo activator buy-stop line, then close out all short positions.
BASIC GANN
The Basic swing charting technique PP
is relatively simple, yet important
because the technique lays the foun-
dation for a deeper understanding of
the markets and swing trading tech- Rule 2 Rule 1
PP
niques in particular.
This trading plan is built upon the
definitions we have previously re- FIGURE 26: TREASURY BONDS. Here are the actual trades for the period 2/18/97-5/5/97.
viewed. Because the concepts of trend
as well as support and resistance are clearly defined, you could The hi-lo activator is our entry as well as our trailing stop.
dovetail your own favorite tool with these concepts. For our (More about this later when I show the rules of the Basic swing
purposes, we will turn our definitions into simple rules that plan.) The hi-lo activator is a three-period simple moving
follow our analysis. This step requires that we have action average of the highs or the lows but plotted in a unique manner.
points. Our action points are our entry rules as well as our stop- Figures 11 and 12 shows how the hi-lo activator is used for
loss or stop and reverse rules. We never enter the market either end-of-day calculation or real-time calculations. For
without placing a stop-loss order, in case the trade goes against end-of-day, we add the last three periods highs (or lows) and
us. This way, we protect our capital by knowing how much we divide the sum by three. This must include the latest bar. The
are risking before we enter the market. Next, I will present the result is then plotted one period forward as a horizontal line, so
hi-lo activator, a new tool we use as part of our action points. that you have a horizontal price point to act with tomorrow
PP
PP
Rule 2
PP
Rule 1
PP Rule 1
PP
Rule 2
Rule 1
Rule 1
Rule 2
Rule 1
PP
PP
PP
FIGURE 27: TREASURY BONDS. Here are the actual trades for the period 4/28/97-7/7/97. FIGURE 28: TREASURY BONDS. Here are the actual trades for the period 6/30/97-9/8/97.
FIGURE 29: TREASURY BONDS. Here are the actual trades for the period 9/8/97-11/17/97. SUMMARY
Here, I have reported what I call the Basic trading plan applied
to trading Treasury bond futures for the last five years. I call this
(Figure 11). For real time, we use the current day’s high (or plan Basic because it is built upon the simplest application of
low) in the calculation so that we have a price level to monitor the Gann swing charting concepts. More sophisticated plans
during the day for real-time action (Figure 12). can be developed from these essential techniques. Of course,
All of the rules illustrated for the Basic and the charts clearly the success of the trading plan will vary from market to market,
show the effect of the hi-lo activator. Once a buy setup is as well as from stock to stock.
activated, the hi-lo sell-stop follows the rising market plotted As always, check this plan out carefully; learn the rules.
below the rising bars, and a sell setup is the opposite. Work your way through all of the trades. Take nothing for
This step formation is visually easy to follow, and once you granted — after all, you are trading your own money.
get accustomed to it, then you will know the market trend is up
until you see a close below the hi-lo activator sell-stop, and then Robert Krausz is private trader and president of Fibonacci
the hi-lo activator buy-stop will appear. You can plot this by Trader Corp. He was featured in Jack Schwager’s New Market
hand; I did it that way for years. The simplicity of the hi-lo Wizards. This article was adapted from Krausz’s book A W.D.
activator may deceive you into believing that it may be of little Gann Treasure Discovered. The Basic swing plan shown here
value. I suggest that you check it out before you pass judgment. is one of four plans: Two end-of-day and two real-time plans
The rules for the Basic Gann swing trading plan can be seen for professional traders.
in sidebar, “Basic Gann swing plan rules.” Each rule is illus-
trated in Figures 14 through 23. Some general notes are part of † See Traders’ Glossary for definition S&C