Chapter 9, Hypothesis Testing - Edit

Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Statistics for
Slides by
Johnand Economics (13e)

Business
Loucks
Anderson, Sweeney, Williams, Camm, Cochran
St. Edward’s
© 2017 Cengage Learning
University
Slides by John Loucks

St. Edwards University
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or 1
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Chapter 9
Hypothesis Testing
• Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
• Type I and Type II Errors
• Population Mean: s Known
• Population Mean: s Unknown
• Population Proportion
Hypothesis Testing
• Hypothesis testing can be used to determine whether a statement about the
value of a population parameter should or should not be rejected.
• The null hypothesis, denoted by H0 , is a tentative assumption about a
population parameter.
• The alternative hypothesis, denoted by Ha, is the opposite of what is stated in
the null hypothesis.
• The hypothesis testing procedure uses data from a sample to test the two
competing statements indicated by H0 and Ha.
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

• It is not always obvious how the null and alternative hypotheses should be
formulated.
• Care must be taken to structure the hypotheses appropriately so that the test
conclusion provides the information the researcher wants.
• The context of the situation is very important in determining how the
hypotheses should be stated.
• In some cases it is easier to identify the alternative hypothesis first. In other
cases the null is easier.
• Correct hypothesis formulation will take practice.

• Alternative Hypothesis as a Research Hypothesis
• Many applications of hypothesis testing involve an attempt to gather

evidence in support of a research hypothesis.
• In such cases, it is often best to begin with the alternative hypothesis and
make it the conclusion that the researcher hopes to support.
• The conclusion that the research hypothesis is true is made if the sample
data provides sufficient evidence to show that the null hypothesis can be
rejected.

• Example:
A new teaching method is developed that is believed to be better than
the current method.
• Alternative Hypothesis:
The new teaching method is better.
• Null Hypothesis:
The new method is no better than the old method.

• Example:
A new sales force bonus plan is developed in an attempt to increase
sales.
The new bonus plan will increase sales.
The new bonus plan will not increase sales.

• Example:
A new drug is developed with the goal of lowering blood pressure more
than the existing drug.
The new drug lowers blood pressure more than the existing drug.
The new drug does not lower blood pressure more than the existing
drug.

• Null Hypothesis as an Assumption to be Challenged
• We might begin with a belief or assumption that a statement about the
value of a population parameter is true.
• We then use a hypothesis test to challenge the assumption and determine

if there is statistical evidence to conclude that the assumption is incorrect.
• In these situations, it is helpful to develop the null hypothesis first.

• Null Hypothesis as an Assumption to be Challenged
• Example:
The label on a soft drink bottle states that it contains 67.6 fluid ounces.
The label is correct. m > 67.6 ounces.
The label is incorrect. m < 67.6 ounces.
Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative Hypotheses

• The equality part of the hypotheses always appears in the null hypothesis.
• In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a population mean m must
take one of the following three forms (where m0 is the hypothesized value of
the population mean).
𝐻0 : 𝜇 ≥ 𝜇0 𝐻0 : 𝜇 ≤ 𝜇0 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝜇0
𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇 < 𝜇0 𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇 > 𝜇0 𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇 ≠ 𝜇0
One-tailed One-tailed Two-tailed

(lower-tail) (upper-tail)
Null and Alternative Hypotheses

• Example: Metro EMS
A major west coast city provides one of the most comprehensive
emergency medical services in the world. Operating in a multiple hospital
system with approximately 20 mobile medical units, the service goal is to
respond to medical emergencies with a mean time of 12 minutes or less.
The director of medical services wants to formulate a hypothesis test that
could use a sample of emergency response times to determine whether or
not the service goal of 12 minutes or less is being achieved.
Null and Alternative Hypotheses

H0: m < 12 The emergency service is meeting the response goal;
no follow-up action is necessary.
Ha: m > 12 The emergency service is not meeting the response

goal; appropriate follow-up action is necessary.
where: m = mean response time for the population

of medical emergency requests
Type I Error
• Because hypothesis tests are based on sample data, we must allow
for the possibility of errors.
• A Type I error is rejecting H0 when it is true.
• The probability of making a Type I error when the null hypothesis is
true as an equality is called the level of significance.
• Applications of hypothesis testing that only control for the Type I error
are often called significance tests.
Type II Error
• A Type II error is accepting H0 when it is false.
• It is difficult to control for the probability of making a Type II error.
• Statisticians avoid the risk of making a Type II error by using “do not reject
H0” and not “accept H0”.
Type I and Type II Errors

Population Condition
H0 True H0 False
Conclusion (m < 12) (m > 12)
Accept H0 Correct
Type II Error
(Conclude m < 12) Conclusion
Reject H0 Correct
Type I Error
(Conclude m > 12) Conclusion
Steps of Hypothesis Testing

Step 1. Develop the null and alternative hypotheses.
Step 2. Specify the level of significance .
Step 3. Collect the sample data and compute the value of the test statistic.
p-Value Approach
Step 4. Use the value of the test statistic to compute the p-value.
Step 5. Reject H0 if p-value < .
Steps of Hypothesis Testing

Critical Value Approach
Step 4. Use the level of significance  to determine the critical value and the
rejection rule.
Step 5. Use the value of the test statistic and the rejection rule to determine
whether to reject H0.
p-Value Approach to One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing

• The p-value is the probability, computed using the test statistic, that
measures the support (or lack of support) provided by the sample for the
null hypothesis.
• If the p-value is less than or equal to the level of significance , the value of the
test statistic is in the rejection region.
• Reject H0 if the p-value <  .
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
19
Lower-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: s Known

• p-Value Approach
Sampling
 = .10 Distribution of
𝑥ҧ − 𝜇0
𝑧=
𝜎Τ 𝑛
p-value
= .0721
p-Value <  ,
so reject H0. z
z= z = 0
-1.46 -1.28
Upper-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: s Known

Sampling
Distribution of  = .04
𝑥ҧ − 𝜇0
𝑧=
𝜎Τ 𝑛
p-Value (p-Value <  ,
 .011 so reject H0.)
z
0 z = z=
1.75 2.29
Critical Value Approach to One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing

• The test statistic z has a standard normal probability distribution.
• We can use the standard normal probability distribution table to find the z-
value with an area of  in the lower (or upper) tail of the distribution.
• The value of the test statistic that established the boundary of the rejection
region is called the critical value for the test.
• The rejection rule is:
• Lower tail: Reject H0 if z < -z
• Upper tail: Reject H0 if z > z
Lower-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: s Known

• Critical Value Approach
Sampling
Distribution of
𝑥ҧ − 𝜇0
𝑧=
𝜎Τ 𝑛
Reject H0
 1
Do Not Reject H0
z
-z = -1.28 0
Upper-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: s Known

Sampling
Distribution of
𝑥ҧ − 𝜇0
𝑧=
𝜎Τ 𝑛 Reject H0
.05
Do Not Reject H0
z
0 z = 1.645
One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: s Known

• Example: Metro EMS
The response times for a random sample of 40 medical emergencies were
tabulated. The sample mean is 13.25 minutes. The population standard
deviation is believed to be 3.2 minutes.
The EMS director wants to perform a hypothesis test, with a .05 level of
significance, to determine whether the service goal of 12 minutes or less is
being achieved.

• p -Value and Critical Value Approaches
1. Develop the hypotheses. H0: m < 12

Ha: m > 12
2. Specify the level of significance.  = .05
3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

ҧ 0
𝑥−𝜇 13.25−12
𝑧= = = 2.47
𝜎Τ 𝑛 3.2/ 40

• p –Value Approach
4. Compute the p –value.

For z = 2.47, cumulative probability = .9932.
p-value = 1 - .9932 = .0068
5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because p-value = .0068 <  = .05, we reject H0.
There is sufficient statistical evidence to infer that Metro EMS is not
meeting the response goal of 12 minutes.

Sampling
 = .05
Distribution of
𝑥ҧ − 𝜇0
𝑧=
𝜎Τ 𝑛
p-value (p-Value < ,
 so reject H0.)
z
0 z = z=
1.645 2.47

4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.

For  = .05, z.05 = 1.645
Reject H0 if z > 1.645
Because 2.47 > 1.645, we reject H0.
There is sufficient statistical evidence to infer that Metro
EMS is not meeting the response goal of 12 minutes.
p-Value Approach to Two-Tailed Hypothesis Testing

• Compute the p-value using the following three steps:
1. Compute the value of the test statistic z.
2. If z is in the upper tail (z > 0), compute the probability that z is greater
than or equal to the value of the test statistic. If z is in the lower tail
(z < 0), compute the probability that z is less than or equal to the value
of the test statistic.
3. Double the tail area obtained in step 2 to obtain the p-value.
• The rejection rule: Reject H0 if the p-value <  .
Critical Value Approach to Two-Tailed Hypothesis Testing

• The critical values will occur in both the lower and upper tails of the standard
normal curve.
• Use the standard normal probability distribution table to find z/2 (the z-value
with an area of /2 in the upper tail of the distribution).
• The rejection rule is: Reject H0 if z < -z/2 or z > z/2.
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: s Known

• Example: Glow Toothpaste
The production line for Glow toothpaste is designed to fill tubes with a
mean weight of 6 oz. Periodically, a sample of 30 tubes will be selected in
order to check the filling process.
Quality assurance procedures call for the continuation of the filling
process if the sample results are consistent with the assumption that the
mean filling weight for the population of toothpaste tubes is 6 oz.; otherwise
the process will be adjusted.

• Example: Glow Toothpaste
Assume that a sample of 30 toothpaste tubes provides a sample mean of
6.1 oz. The population standard deviation is believed to be 0.2 oz.
Perform a hypothesis test, at the .03 level of significance, to help
determine whether the filling process should continue operating or be
stopped and corrected.

• p –Value and Critical Value Approaches
1. Determine the hypotheses. 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 6

𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇 ≠ 6

ҧ 0
𝑥−𝜇 6.1−6
𝑧= = = 2.74
𝜎Τ 𝑛 2/ 30

For z = 2.74, cumulative probability = .9969
p-value = 2(1 - .9969) = .0062

Because p-value = .0062 <  = .03, we reject H0.
There is sufficient statistical evidence to infer that the alternative hypothesis

is true (i.e. the mean filling weight is not 6 ounces).

1/2 1/2
p-value p-value
= .0031 = .0031
/2 = /2 =
.015 .015
z
z = -2.74 0 z = 2.74
-z/2 = -2.17 z/2 = 2.17


For /2 = .03/2 = .015, z.015 = 2.17
Reject H0 if z < -2.17 or z > 2.17

There is sufficient statistical evidence to infer that the alternative
hypothesis is true (i.e. the mean filling weight is not 6 ounces).

Sampling
Distribution of
𝑥ҧ − 𝜇0
𝑧=
𝜎Τ 𝑛
Reject H0 Reject H0
/2 = .015 /2 = .015
Do Not Reject H0
z
-2.17 0 2.17
Tests About a Population Mean: s Unknown

• Test Statistic: 𝑥ҧ − 𝜇0
𝑡=
𝑠Τ 𝑛
• This test statistic has a t distribution with n - 1 degrees of freedom.
Tests About a Population Mean: s Unknown

• Rejection Rule: p -Value Approach
Reject H0 if p –value < 
• Rejection Rule: Critical Value Approach
H0: m > m0 Reject H0 if t < -t
H0: m < m0 Reject H0 if t > t
H0: m = m0 Reject H0 if t < - t/2 or t > t/2
p -Values and the t Distribution

• The format of the t distribution table provided in most statistics textbooks does
not have sufficient detail to determine the exact p-value for a hypothesis test.
• However, we can still use the t distribution table to identify a range for the p-
value.
• An advantage of computer software packages is that the computer output will
provide the p-value for the t distribution.
Example: Highway Patrol

• One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: s Unknown
A State Highway Patrol periodically samples vehicle speeds at various
locations on a particular roadway. The sample of vehicle speeds is used to
test the hypothesis H0: m < 65.
The locations where H0 is rejected are deemed the best locations for radar
traps. At Location F, a sample of 64 vehicles shows a mean speed of 66.2 mph
with a standard deviation of 4.2 mph. Use a = .05 to test the hypothesis.
One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: s Unknown

1. Determine the hypotheses. H0: m < 65

Ha: m > 65
ҧ 0
𝑥−𝜇 66.2−65
𝑡= = = 2.286
𝑠Τ 𝑛 4.2/ 64

For t = 2.286, the p-value must be less than .025
(for t = 1.998) and greater than .01 (for t = 2.387).
.01 < p–value < .025

Because p-value <  = .05, we reject H0.
We are at least 95% confident that the mean speed of vehicles at
Location F is greater than 65 mph.

For  = .05 and d.f. = 64 – 1 = 63, t.05 = 1.669
Reject H0 if t > 1.669
We are at least 95% confident that the mean speed of vehicles at
Location F is greater than 65 mph. Location F is a good candidate
for a radar trap.
Reject H0
()
Do Not Reject H0 p-value (p-Value <  ,

< .025 so reject H0.)
t
0 t = t=
1.669 2.286
A Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative Hypotheses

About a Population Proportion
• The equality part of the hypotheses always appears in the null hypothesis.
• In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a population proportion p
must take one of the following three forms (where p0 is the hypothesized
value of the population proportion).
𝐻0 : 𝑝 ≥ 𝑝0 𝐻0 : 𝑝 ≤ 𝑝0 𝐻0 : 𝑝 = 𝑝0
𝐻𝑎 : 𝑝 < 𝑝0 𝐻𝑎 : 𝑝 > 𝑝0 𝐻𝑎 : 𝑝 ≠ 𝑝0
One-tailed One-tailed Two-tailed

(lower tail) (upper tail)
Tests About a Population Proportion

𝑝ҧ − 𝑝0
• Test Statistic: 𝑧 =
𝜎𝑝ҧ
𝑝0 1 − 𝑝0
where: 𝜎𝑝ҧ =
𝑛
assuming np > 5 and n(1 – p) > 5
Tests About a Population Proportion

• Rejection Rule: p –Value Approach
Reject H0 if p –value < 
• Rejection Rule: Critical Value Approach

H0: p < p0 Reject H0 if z > z
H0: p > p0 Reject H0 if z < -z
H0: p = p0 Reject H0 if z < -z/2 or z > z/2
Two-Tailed Test About a Population Proportion

• Example: National Safety Council (NSC)
For a Christmas and New Year’s week, the National Safety Council
estimated that 500 people would be killed and 25,000 injured on the nation’s
roads. The NSC claimed that 50% of the accidents would be caused by drunk
driving.
A sample of 120 accidents showed that 67 were caused by drunk driving.
Use these data to test the NSC’s claim with  = .05.

1. Determine the hypotheses. 𝐻0 : 𝑝 = .5 and 𝐻𝑎 : 𝑝 ≠ .5
𝑝0 1−𝑝0 .5 1−.5
𝜎𝑝ҧ = = = .045644
𝑛 120
67
ҧ 0
𝑝−𝑝 −.5
120
𝑧= = = 1.28
𝜎𝑝
ഥ .045644

4. Compute the p -value.
For z = 1.28, cumulative probability = .8997
p-value = 2(1 - .8997) = .2006

Because p-value = .2006 >  = .05,
we cannot reject H0.

4. Determine the critical values and rejection rule.
For /2 = .05/2 = .025, z.025 = 1.96
Reject H0 if z < -1.96 or z > 1.96

Because 1.278 > -1.96 and < 1.96,
we cannot reject H0.
End of Chapter 9

Chapter 9, Hypothesis Testing - Edit

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Chapter 9, Hypothesis Testing - Edit

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Chapter 9, Hypothesis Testing - Edit

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)

Johnand Economics (13e)

Slides by John Loucks

Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

• Many applications of hypothesis testing involve an attempt to gather

Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

• We then use a hypothesis test to challenge the assumption and determine

• In these situations, it is helpful to develop the null hypothesis first.

Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative Hypotheses

One-tailed One-tailed Two-tailed

Null and Alternative Hypotheses

Null and Alternative Hypotheses

Ha: m > 12 The emergency service is not meeting the response

where: m = mean response time for the population

Type I and Type II Errors

Steps of Hypothesis Testing

Steps of Hypothesis Testing

p-Value Approach to One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing

Lower-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: s Known

Upper-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: s Known

Critical Value Approach to One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing

Lower-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: s Known

Upper-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: s Known

One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: s Known

One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: s Known

1. Develop the hypotheses. H0: m < 12

2. Specify the level of significance.  = .05

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: s Known

4. Compute the p –value.

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: s Known

One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: s Known

4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.

p-Value Approach to Two-Tailed Hypothesis Testing

Critical Value Approach to Two-Tailed Hypothesis Testing

Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: s Known

Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: s Known

Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: s Known

1. Determine the hypotheses. 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 6

2. Specify the level of significance.  = .03

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: s Known

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

There is sufficient statistical evidence to infer that the alternative hypothesis

Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: s Known

Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: s Known

4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: s Known

Tests About a Population Mean: s Unknown

Tests About a Population Mean: s Unknown

p -Values and the t Distribution

Example: Highway Patrol

One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: s Unknown