Futures PDF
Futures PDF
Futures PDF
Financial
Markets
Primary Secondary
Market Market
Place where
Place where
exisitng
new issues
securities
are made
are traded
Basics of derivatives:
❖ A derivative contract is a financial instrument whose payoff structure is derived
from the value of the underlying asset
Example: Ticket Price of IPL match is Rs.1,000 but the same is fully sold out. A reference
letter is given to buy 3 tickets by paying the price of the ticket
Day Grey Market Price Value
T – 7 1,250
T – 5 750
T – 3 1,500
T – 1 1,600
T 1,800
T+1
❖ The letter is a derivative instrument. It gives you the right to buy the tickets
❖ The underlying asset is the ticket
❖ The letter does not constitute ownership
❖ It is a promise to convey ownership
❖ The value of the letter changes with the value of the ticket
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Forward Futures
Options Swaps
Contract Contract
Forward contract:
Meaning: Features:
A forward contract is an ❖ Unique – No transfer can be made
agreement entered today under ❖ Performance obligation – Both parties obliged to
which one party agrees to buy perform
and the other party agrees to sell ❖ Price risk is eliminated
an asset on a specified future date ❖ No margins
at an agreed price ❖ Default risk ~ There is no guarantee of
performance
❖ Illiquid – FC cannot be traded
Futures contract:
Meaning: Features:
A futures contract is a standardized contract between two ❖ Standardized
parties where one of the parties commits to sell and the other quantity
permits to buy a specified quantity of a specified asset at an ❖ Deal with clearing
agreed price on a given date in the future house
❖ Market to Market
Options Contract:
Meaning: Features:
A contract between two parties under which the “buyer of the ❖ Standardized
option” buys on payment of a price (premium) the right and quantity
not the obligation to sell (put option), a standardized quantity ❖ Deal with clearing
(contract size) of a financial instrument (underlying asset) at or house
before a pre-determined date (expiry date) at a predetermined ❖ Market to market
price (exercise price or strike price).
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❖ Hedger – To protect ❖ Price changes protection against
against the adverse price are first adverse price
changes reflected in movement
❖ Arbitrageur – Looks for this market
prospects in 2 different
markets for riskless gains
❖ Speculator – Take risk in
order to make profit
during adverse market
movement
Futures:
Key concepts:
1. Continuous compounding:
❖ 12% rate of interest has a different effective annual rate if it is compounded at
different frequencies as show below:
Compounding frequency Effective rate
Annually
Half-yearly
Quarterly
Monthly
Continuous compounding
❖ As the frequency of compounding increases the effective annual rate goes up
❖ The effective rate is maximum when compounding is continuous
❖ The future value of continuous compounding is got from eX table and the present
value of continuous discounting is got from e-X table
❖ eX values can be arrived using the following formula 1 + (X/1!) +
(X2/2!) + (X3/3!) + (Xn/n!)
2. Arbitrage through futures:
❖ Compute fair futures price
❖ Compare fair futures price with actual futures price to take decision
Relationship Valuation Futures Spot Action
AFP > FFP
FFP < AFP
Example:
X Limited has a beta of 0.8. Mr. A holds 5000 shares of X Limited whose CMP is Rs.300 per
share. Index future is 30000 points and has a multiplier of Rs.30. What action should be
taken in order to hedge?
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Impact of hedging:
❖ If we are long in one market and price goes up we gain
❖ If we are short in one market and price goes up we lose
❖ If we are long in one market and price falls we lose
❖ If we are short in one market and price falls we gain
Position Price Impact
Long Up Gain
Long Down Lose
Short Up Lose
Short Down Gain
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❖ The stock exchange wants the derivative players to maintain the margin accounts to
safeguard against the risk of default
❖ The initial margin to be maintained is equal to average daily absolute change + 3
(Standard deviation)
❖ The margin balance will change with daily profits/losses being credited/recovered
from the margin account. This concept is also known as mark to market wherein the
company’s derivatives are valued daily at the closing price
❖ The margin balance cannot fall below a specified limit which is also knows as
maintenance margin. In case the margin account drops below the maintenance
margin then the derivative player is required to replenish the account to the level of
initial margin
❖ The derivative player can withdraw the balance from the margin account in case the
balance is above initial margin. However the maximum withdrawal will be upto to
the point of initial margin
Open Interest:
❖ Open interest is the total number of open or outstanding (not closed or delivered)
options and/or futures contract that exist on a given day
❖ Open interest is commonly associated with futures and options markets, where the
number of existing contracts changes from day to day unlike the stock market
wherein the number of shares remain constant unless new issues are made
❖ Open interest is a measure of flow of money into a futures or options market.
Increasing open interest represents new or additional money coming into the market,
while decreasing open interest indicates money flowing out of the market
❖ An increase in open interest is typically interpreted as a bullish signal while
decreasing open interest is interpreted as a bearish signal
In the money (ITM) / Out the money (OTM) and At the money (ATM):
❖ An option is in the money if exercising the option at that point would give a gain
❖ An option is out the money if exercising the option at that point would lead to a loss
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❖ An option is at the money if exercising the option at that point would lead to neither
profits nor losses
❖ In all the above cases, the option premium being a sunk cost is irrelevant
Relationship Status for call Status for Put
Exercise price > Market price
Exercise price = Market price
Exercise price < Market price
❖ The phrase ITM, OTM and ATM are used in relation to the buyer. Therefore while in
the money is good for the buyer, it is bad for the writer
❖ Similarly OTM is bad for the buyer it is good for the writer
Taking stance:
❖ Whether a derivative player want to be a buyer (holder) or a writer would depend
on his ability to take risk
o Maximum risk = Writer
o Minimum risk = Holder
❖ A buyer would prefer that option which lead to him an exercise on the maturity date
❖ A writer would prefer that option which would lead to lapse on the maturity date
❖ In order to take a stance we need to compare the exercise price with expected market
price
Option Strategies:
Payoff table and Payoff graph:
❖ The payoff table captures the net profit at various expected MP on expiry date
❖ Such tables are drawn for call buyer, call writer, put buyer and put writer
❖ When an option is exercised, the buyer gains and the writer lose at gross payoff level
❖ Gain or loss at the net payoff level will depend on the extent of premium
❖ When an option in lapsed, neither the holder nor the writer gain or lose at the gross
payoff level
❖ A payoff graph is a graphical representation of the payoff table with market price on
X-axis and net payoff on Y-axis
Strategies
Sprea
Combination
ds
Butter
Bull Bear Strips Straps Strangle Straddle
fly
Note:
❖ The term type would mean call option or put option
❖ The term position would mean Buyer or writer
❖ Derivative strategies are normally created by entering into two or more transactions
❖ If both transaction involve the same type of option the strategy is called a spread
❖ If one transaction involve a call and another transaction involve a put it is called
combination
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payoff
3 E2 Same as above
4 GPO Column 2 + Column 3
5 Premium Income (+) for writer and expense (-) for buyer
6 NPO GPO ± Premium
7 BEP Equate NPO to zero
Combination strategies:
Particulars Strip Strap Strangle Straddle
No of calls 1 2 1 1
No of puts 2 1 1 1
Exercise price Same Same Different Same
Call will have higher EP &
Put will have lower EP
Note:
❖ If the person buys calls and puts then it is called long strategy and in case he sells
calls and puts then it is called short strategy
❖ For example a long straddle would involve buying one call and one put with same
exercise price whereas a short straddle would involve selling one call and one put
with same exercise price
Pricing options:
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❖ Valuation of options means finding out the fair option price
Option
valuation
models
Stock Option
equivalent equivalent
approach approach
Steps:
❖ Step 1: Compute the intrinsic value at 2 judgement prices
❖ Step 2: Compute upside probability and downside probability by equating the
weighted average return with the return from the risk free asset
❖ Step 3: Expected value of call on expiry date is the weighted average of the values in
step 1 with probability computed in step 2 being the assigned weights
❖ Step 4: Compute the PV of expected value of step 3 by discounting at risk free rate.
This gives the value of call
❖ Step 5: Use PCPT model to value the put
Formula to calculate Probability:
Upside Probability = ert – d
u-d
Where
r = rate of interest per annum; t = time period in years
d = JP 1 / Current Price ; u = JP 2 / Current Price
Model 4: Binomial model:
❖ Step 1: Draw decision diagram
❖ Step 2: Identify market price on expiry dates
❖ Step 3: Write intrinsic value at various judgement price on expiry date
❖ Step 4: Taking into account the previous probabilities roll back the IV to the base.
This is the fair value of the option
❖ Step 5: Discount the value of step 4 to identify the fair value of option on day 0
Delta Hedging:
❖ Creating a riskless hedge using options and underlying stock is called as Delta
Hedging
❖ The investor should aim to make the delta adjusted value of the portfolio as zero to
have a delta neutral portfolio
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Topic 14: Valuation of Futures
6. Arbitrage opportunity:
Spot price of Gold : Rs.30,000
Interest rate : 6%/10%
Transaction cost on buy or sell : 3%
❖ Define the no arbitrage boundary for a futures contract expiring in one year
❖ Rework the no arbitrage boundary if on short sell the trader can receive a fraction
amount of 80% from the broker
7. Pricing future
The following data relate to Anand Ltd.’s share price:
Current price per share Rs.1800
6 months future’s price/share Rs.1950
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Assuming it is possible to borrow money in the market for transactions in securities at 12%
per annum, you are expected:
❖ To calculate the theoretical minimum price of a 6-months forward purchase and
❖ To explain arbitrage opportunity
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Topic 15: Hedging with Futures
The Beta of the portfolio is 1.1. The index future is selling at 4300 level. The Fund
Manager apprehends that the index will fall at the most by 10%. How many index
futures he should short for perfect hedging? One index future consists of 50 units.
Substantiate your answer assuming the Fund Manager's apprehension will materialize.
5. Hedge ratio
A company is long on 10 MT of Rs. 474 per kg (spot) and intends to remain so for the
ensuing quarter. The standard deviation of changes of its spot and future prices are
4% and 6% respectively, having correlation coefficient of 0.75. What is its hedge ratio?
What is the amount of the Rs future it should short to achieve a perfect hedge?
6. Residual risk
The beta of ABC Limited is 1.3 and the total risk of ABC Limited is 9. The daily SD of Nifty
is 1.6. Once complete hedging is done, how much risk is left with?
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7. Hedging with futures
On January 1, 2013 an investor has a portfolio of 5 shares as given below:
Security Price No.of Shares β
A 349.30 5,000 1.15
B 480.50 7,000 0.40
C 593.52 8,000 0.90
D 734.70 10,000 0.95
E 824.85 2,000 0.85
The cost of capital to the investor is 10.5% per annum. You are required to calculate.
I. The beta of his portfolio.
II. The theoretical value of the NIFTY futures for February 2013.
III. The number of contracts of NIFTY the investors needs to sell to get a full hedge until
February for his portfolio if the current value of NIFTY is 5900 and NIFTY futures are
trading lot requirement of 200 units. Assume that the futures are trading at their fair
value.
IV. The number of future contracts the investor should trade if he desire to reduce the
beta of his portfolios to 0.6
(No. of days in a year be treated as 365. Given: in (1.105) = 0.0998 e (0.015858) =1.01598)
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You have bought 2045 shares of LP Limited. LP has a beta of 1.1 with the sensex. Each
sensex contract is equal to 50 units. LP now quotes at Rs.100 and the sensex futures is
available at 4500 index points. Required:
i. How many futures contracts will you have to take?
ii. If the price of the spot market drops by 12 percent how are you protected?
iii. If the price in the spot market jumps up by 5 percent, what happens?
iv. Calculate the profit if LP limited falls to 97 and sensex falls to 4410
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Topic 16: Maintenance Margin and Open Interest
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Topic 17: Basics of Option
3. Option status
State whether each one of the following is in the money, at the money or out of the money
Option Exercise Price Stock Price Status
Call 60 55
Call 50 50
Call 110 105
Call 30 35
Put 110 100
Put 105 105
Put 12 15
Put 25 20
4. Taking position
The strike price and the expected price on expiry are given in columns 1 and 2 respectively.
The option expires 3 months down the road. What position would you take? The actual
price on the expiry date is given in column 3. What action will be taken on maturity date?
Exercise Price Expected price on expiry Actual price on expiry
180 160 180
125 125 130
160 175 155
170 155 160
150 160 150
110 110 100
150 155 165
170 160 180
95 95 95
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5. Intrinsic value
Consider the data relating to a stock contained in the following table. Determine both the
intrinsic value and the time value in each of the cases.
Option Exercise Asset Price Option Price Intrinsic value Time value
Call 90 100 5
Call 110 100 2
Put 200 100 65
Put 90 100 4
Put 150 125 30
Call 150 125 30
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Topic 18: Option Strategies
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6. Option strategies:
Consider a call and put option on the same underlying stock. Both options have an exercise
price of Rs.75. The call costs Rs.5 and the put costs Rs.4. The stock price is expected to be in
the range of Rs.50 to Rs.90. Prepare a payoff table and payoff graph for:
❖ Long straddle
❖ Short straddle
7. Option strategies:
Consider a call and put option on the same underlying stock. The call has an exercise price
of Rs.100 and put has an exercise price of Rs.90. The call costs Rs.20 and the put costs Rs.12.
The stock price is expected to be in the range of Rs.50 to Rs.150. Prepare a payoff table and
payoff graph for:
❖ Long strangle
❖ Short strangle
9. Butterfly spread
A stock is selling at 62. An investor observes the market price of 3-month calls and notes the
following:
Exercise Price Call Price
55 10
60 7
65 5
The investor chooses to go long on two calls (55 and 65) and writes two calls with an
exercise price of Rs.60. Name the strategy adopted. Determine his payoff function for
different levels of stock prices. Also, find his profit or loss when the stock price at maturity is
❖ 52
❖ 57
❖ 64 and
❖ 70
11. Strangle
A call option on a stock with an exercise price of Rs.70 is available for Rs.6 while a put
option on the same stock with the same expiration date with an exercise price of Rs.60 is
selling for Rs.8. How can a strangle be created by using these options? Draw the payoff table
and the payoff graph.
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Topic 19: Option Valuation
1. Setting up Put
X Limited is quoting at Rs.85. A three-month call can be written at Rs.7. The exercise price is
Rs.90. CCRFI is 10 percent per annum. Required:
i. If puts on X Limited are not traded but you want to create the same, how would you
do it? In case the market is not favorable, how are you protected?
ii. If puts are traded, what would it quote?
8. Binomial model
The current share price is Rs.20 and share price volatility has been estimated to be either 10%
up or down. The risk free interest rate is 12% p.a. Using two period binomial, estimated the
fair price of 6 months call option with a strike price of Rs.21.
9. Binomial model
A stock is currently priced at Rs.50. It is known that in the first 6 months of current year
from now prices will either rise by 20% or go down by 20%, further in the later half of the
year prices may again up by 20% or go down by 20%. Suppose risk free rate is 5%
continuous compounded and strike rate is Rs.52. Calculate value of European Put option?
Also calculate the value of European call option
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i. Find the value of the American put?
ii. If the actual price of the put were Rs.12, what strategy would you adopt?
iii. If the actual price of the put were Rs.28, what strategy would you adopt?
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Topic 20: Delta Hedging
1. Delta Hedging:
A trader sold 20 option contracts (2000 options) on a certain stock. The option price is USD
10, the stock price is USD 100 and option delta is 0.6.
❖ Suggest a hedge strategy to make the portfolio delta neutral
❖ Suppose due to share price increase, the delta changes to 0.65, under a dynamic
hedge strategy, what should the trader do?
2. Delta Hedging:
Find the delta of the following individual positions of a stock X given the delta of call = +1
and of put = -1
❖ 4 long calls
❖ 2 short puts
❖ 6 long puts and long 4 shares
❖ 5 short calls and short 5 shares
❖ 4 long puts and short 4 shares
❖ 3 long calls and long 3 shares
3. Delta computation:
Calculate delta of an at-the-money six month European call option for a non-dividend
paying stock when the risk free rate is 10% per annum and the stock price volatility is 25%.
What should be the delta if this is a European put option? Recalculate the delta of the
European call and put option if the dividend yield is 4% for the aforesaid stock
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Topic 21: Interest rate futures and options
1. Interest rate caps and floors
Suppose that a 1-year cap has a cap rate of 8% and a notional amount of Rs.100 Crores. The
frequency of settlement is quarterly and the reference rate is 3-months MIBOR. Assume that
3-month MIBOR for the next four quarters is shown below:
Quarters 3-months MIBOR
1 8.70
2 8.00
3 7.80
4 8.20
You are required to compute payoff for each quarter
4. Caps
XYZ Limited borrows £ 15 Million of six months LIBOR + 10.00% for a period
of 24 months. The company anticipates a rise in LIBOR, hence it proposes to buy a
Cap Option from its Bankers at the strike rate of 8.00%. The lump sum premium
is 1.00% for the entire reset periods and the fixed rate of interest is 7.00% per
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annum. The actual position of LIBOR during the forthcoming reset period is as under:
Reset Period LIBOR
1 9.00%
2 9.50%
3 10.00%
You are required to show how far interest rate risk is hedged through Cap Option.
For calculation, work out figures at each stage up to four decimal points and amount
nearest to £. It should be part of working notes.
5. Collar
a) A company has decided to take a 3 –year floating rate loan of $25 million to finance a
project. The loan is indexed to a 6 month LIBOR with a spread of 100 BP. The current
level of LIBOR is 5.75%. The company thinks that the projected cash flows from the
project will enable it to service the loan as long as the interest cost did not exceed
8.5%. A 3 year interest rate cap with a face value of $25 million and a strike rate of 7%
is available for a premium of 3.75 %. Calculate the effective cost of the capped loan
for the following scenario of LIBORs on the next 5 roll over dates: 5.50%, 6.00%,
6.25%, 6.50%,& 6.75( use a rate of 7% to amortize the premium).
b) The above company is offered an interest rate collar with strike rates of 5.75% and
6.5% respectively for a net premium of 2%. Under this, the company has to
compensate the seller of the collar if LIBOR falls below 5.75%, while the seller
compensates the company if LIBOR rises above 6.5%. Compute the effective cost of
the loan under the same scenario?
6. Interest rate futures
In two months time, ABC Limited will receive Rs.3.9 million which it wants to deposit in
money market for three months. ABC Limited at present can deposit at 8% per annum, but
the treasurer fears a decrease in interest rate after two months and hence wishes to hedge
using interest rate futures. Three months futures are currently priced at 93. The standard
contract size in the futures market is 0.5 million.
❖ What strategy should the treasurer adopt to hedge the interest rate risk?
❖ If after two months, the futures are priced at 90.75 and interest rate increases to
10.5%, what would be the effective interest income earned by ABC Limited due to
adoption of this strategy? Also calculate the hedge efficiency?
❖ If after two months, the futures are priced at 94.25 and interest rate falls to 6.5%,
what would be the effective interest income earned by ABC Limited due to adoption
of this strategy? Also calculate the hedge efficiency?
3. FRA
The following market data is available:
Spot USD/JPY 116.00
Deposit rates p.a. USD JPY
3 months 4.50% 0.25%
6 months 5.00% 0.25%
Forward Rate Agreement (FRA) for Yen is 0.25%.
a) What should be 3 months FRA rate at 3 months forward?
b) The 6 & 12 months LIBORS are 5% and 6.5% respectively. A bank is quoting 6/12
USD FRA at 6.50 – 6.75%. Is any arbitrage opportunity available?
4. FRA
Two companies ABC Limited and XYZ Limited approach DEF Bank for FRA (Forward Rate
Agreement). They want to borrow Rs.100 Crores after 2 years for a period of 1 year. Bank
has calculated yield curve of both companies as follows:
Year XYZ Limited ABC Limited
1 3.86 4.12
2 4.20 5.48
3 4.48 5.78
❖ You are required to calculate the rate of interest DEF Bank would quote under 2v3
FRA, using the company’s yield information as quoted above
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❖ Suppose bank offers Interest rate guarantee for a premium of 0.1% of the amount of
loan, you are required to calculate the interest payable by XYZ Limited if interest in 2
years turns out to be
o 4.50%
o 5.50%
5. FRA
Electraspace is consumer electronics wholesaler. The business of the firm is highly
seasonal in nature. In 6 months of a year, firm has a huge cash deposits and especially near
Christmas time and other 6 months firm cash crunch, leading to borrowing of money to
cover up its exposures for running the business. It is expected that firm shall borrow a sum
of €50 million for the entire period of slack season in about 3 months.
A Bank has given the following quotations:
❖ Spot 5.50% - 5.75%
❖ 3 × 6 FRA 5.59% - 5.82%
❖ 3 × 9 FRA 5.64% - 5.94%
3 month €50,000 future contract maturing in a period of 3 months is quoted at 94.15 (5.85%).
You are required to determine:
❖ How a FRA, shall be useful if the actual interest rate after 6 months turnout to be:
o 4.5%
o 6.5%
❖ How 3 months Future contract shall be useful for company if interest rate turns out
as mentioned in part (a) above.
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Topic 23: Interest Rate Swaps
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4. Interest rate swap:
ABC Bank is seeking fixed rate funding. It is able to finance at a cost of six months LIBOR +
0.25% for Rs.200 million for 5 years. The bank is able to swap into a fixed rate at 7.5% versus
six months LIBOR treating six months as exactly half a year.
❖ What will be the all in cost funds to ABC Bank?
❖ Another instrument being considered is the issue of a hybrid instrument which pays
7.5% for first three years and LIBOR – 0.25% of remaining two years. Given a three
year swap rate of 8%, suggest the method by which the bank could achieve fixed rate
funding.
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8. Evaluation of interest swap arrangement:
NoBank offers a variety of services to both individuals as well as corporate customers.
NoBank generates funds for lending by accepting deposits from customers who are paid
interest at PLR which keeps on changing.
NoBank is also in the business of acting as intermediary for interest rate swaps. Since it is
difficult to identify matching client, NoBank acts counterparty to any party of swap.
Sleepless approaches NoBank who already have Rs. 50 crore outstanding and paying
interest @PLR+80bp p.a. The duration of loan left is 4 years. Since Sleepless is expecting
increase in PLR in coming year, he asked NoBank for arrangement of interest of interest rate
swap that will give a fixed rate of interest.
As per the terms of agreement of swap NoBank will borrow Rs.50 crore from Sleepless at
PLR+80bp per annuam and will lend Rs. 50 crore to Sleepless at fixed rate of 10% p.a. The
settlement shall be made at the net amount due from each other. For this services NoBank
will charge commission @0.2% p.a. if the loan amount. The present PLR is 8.2%.
You as a financial consultant of NoBank have been asked to carry out scenario analysis of
this arrangement. Three possible scenarios of interest rates expected to remain in coming 4
years are as follows:
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Scenario 1 10.25 10.50 10.75 11.00
Scenario 2 8.75 8.85 8.85 8.85
Scenario 3 7.20 7.40 7.60 7.70
Assuming that cost of capital is 10%, whether this arrangement should be accepted or not.
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11. Calculation of fixed rate
TMC corporation entered into 3.5 million Euros notional principal interest rate swap
agreement. As per the agreement TMC is to pay a fixed rate and to receive a floating rate of
LIBOR. The payment will be made at the interval of 90 days for one year and it will be based
on the adjustment factor 90/360. The term structure LIBOR on the date of agreement is as
follows:
Days Rate (%)
90 7.00
180 7.25
270 7.45
360 7.55
You are required to calculate fixed rate on the swap and first net payment on the swap. Also
calculate the swap bid and offer rate for the above transaction if the financial institution
dealing in this swap wants a dealer’s margin of 0.20%
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