Shree Cement DCF Valuation
Shree Cement DCF Valuation
Shree Cement DCF Valuation
Income Statement
Average COGS as Percentage of Revenue
Research and Development as Percentage of Revenue
Sales, General and administrative as Percentage of Revenue
Other operating expenses as Percentage of Revenue
Other income (expense) as Percentage of Revenue
Balance Sheet
Short Term Debt as Percentage of Total Assets
Long Term Debt as Percentage of Total Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents as Percentage of Revenue
Short Term Equivalents as Percentage of Revenue
Accounts Receivables as Percentage of Revenue
Inventory as Percentage of Revenue
Prepaid Expenses as Percentage of Revenue
Other Current Assets as Percentage of Revenue
Gross property, plant and equipment as Percentage of Revenue
Intangible assets as Percentage of Revenue
Other long-term assets as Percentage of Revenue
Accounts payable as Percentage of Revenue
Corporate Tax Rate
Other current liabilities as Percentage of Revenue
Retained Earnings as as Percentage of Net Income
Accumulated other comprehensive income as Percentage of Revenue
Cashflow Statement
Other Working Capital as Percentage of Revenue
ntrol Sheet Revenue Growth Rate Year 1
ment Assumption 2%
10.00%
0.00%
2.79% Interest Rate on Long Term Debt 9%
72.00% Interest Rate on Short Term Debt 3%
3.00%
d FCFE Assumptions
6.00%
5.18%
1.18
14.25%
23826
Income Statement
Fiscal year ends in March. INR in millions except per share data. Mar-10 Mar-11
Revenue 27,106.00 36,321.00
Cost of revenue 11,630.00 13,019.00
Gross profit 15,476.00 23,303.00
Operating expenses
Research and Development
Sales, General and administrative 4,990.00 6,793.00
Other operating expenses 2,701.00 6,532.00
Total operating expenses 7,692.00 13,325.00
Operating income 7,785.00 9,977.00
Interest Expense
Other income (expense) -556.00 -1,298.00
Income before taxes 7,229.00 8,679.00
Provision for income taxes 1,449.00 1,918.00
Other income
Net income from continuing operations 5,780.00 6,761.00
Net income from discontinuing operations
Other
Net income 5,780.00 6,761.00
Preferred dividend
Net income available to common shareholders 5,780.00 6,761.00
Earnings per share
Basic 165.91 194.07
Diluted 165.91 194.07
Weighted average shares outstanding in Millions
Basic 35.00 35.00
Diluted 35.00 35.00
EBITDA 9,839.00 15,682.00
Income Statement
Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
38,794.00 55,704.00 58,620.00 64,232.00 55,136.00 85,638.00 95,530.00 122,606.00
3,296.00 4,834.00 5,803.00 6,606.00 4,526.00 8,666.00 10,037.00 12,943.00
35,498.00 50,870.00 52,817.00 57,626.00 50,611.00 76,972.00 85,494.00 109,663.00
- - - - -
3,492.25 3,666.86 4,510.24 5,322.09 6,067.18
90,041.85 94,543.94 116,289.04 137,221.07 156,432.02
93,534.10 98,210.80 120,799.29 142,543.16 162,499.20
19,018.21 19,969.12 24,562.02 28,983.18 33,040.83
1,910.67 2,002.80 2,447.78 2,876.12 3,269.24
3,751.74 3,939.33 4,845.38 5,717.54 6,518.00
20,859.29 21,905.66 26,959.62 31,824.61 36,289.59
1,545.80 1,905.96 2,220.95 2,281.74 1,852.09
- - - - -
19,313.49 19,999.70 24,738.67 29,542.87 34,437.50
- - - - -
19,313.49 19,999.70 24,738.67 29,542.87 34,437.50
Difference Adjustments
Balance Sheet
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
1 1 1 1
185 104 124 723 938 1,429 3,251
5,910 8,448 15,922 15,049 18,793 19,039 27,575
13,874 19,610 33,240 34,733 38,883 49,990 65,149
24,834 33,903 49,062 49,404 61,601 73,287 85,546
- - - - - - -
Forecasted Values
- - - - - - -
Mar-24
1,943
21,637
23,580
13,304
33,285
3,081
19,539
92,788
185,058
-70,046
115,012
-
611
6,126
79,535
201,284
294,072
27,547
19,068
10,862
7,984
18,005
83,466
29,969
2
4,653
625
6,260
41,509
124,975
348
415
111,471
56,864
169,098
294,072
-
Cash Flow Statement
Fiscal year ends in March. INR in millions except per share data. Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income 7,538 8,679 1,104
Depreciation & amortization 2,054 5,704 6,758
Investments losses (gains) -142 -642 -441
Deferred income taxes
Stock based compensation
Change in working capital 232 -61 1,632
Inventory 221 -2,037 -461
Prepaid Expenses
Other working capital 11 1,976 2,093
Other non-cash items -1,622 -1,140 1,690
Net cash provided by operating activities 8,060 12,540 10,742
Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipment -5,355 -11,725 -11,540
Property, plant, and equipment reductions 25 15 22
Acquisitions, net
Purchases of investments -3,802 -15,702 -7,855
Sales/Maturities of investments 142 10,039 12,346
Purchases of intangibles
Other investing activities 445 489 666
Net cash used for investing activities -8,545 -16,885 -6,361
Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued 2,532 7,048 2,898
Debt repayment -890 -1,318 -5,103
Common Stock Issued
Dividend paid -326 -611 -569
Other financing activities -783 -1,332 -1,738
Net cash provided by (used for) financing activities 533 3,786 -4,512
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes
Net change in cash 48 -559 -131
Cash at beginning of period 4,674 4,723 5,118
Cash at end of period 4,723 4,164 4,987
Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow 8,060 12,540 10,742
Capital expenditure -5,355 -11,725 -11,540
Free cash flow 2,705 815 -798
Flow Statement
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
- - - - -
-8,393 -8,691 -10,751 -12,839 -14,966
-794 -999 -1,427 -1,457 -1,491
-4,457 -14,374 8,397 2,383 -5,132
17 17 17 17 17
23,300 14,753 40,376 44,235 48,189
4,658 13,572 14,251 17,529 20,684
27,958 28,325 54,627 61,764 68,873
Financials Mar-10
Revenue INR Mil 27,106
Gross Margin % 57.09%
Operating Income INR Mil 7,785
Operating Margin % 28.72%
Net Income INR Mil 5,780
Earnings Per Share INR 165.91
Dividends INR per share 9.31
Payout Ratio % * 5.61%
Shares Mil 35
Book Value Per Share * INR 192.23
Operating Cash Flow INR Mil 8,060
Cap Spending INR Mil 5,355
Free Cash Flow INR Mil 2,705
Free Cash Flow Per Share * INR 134.94
Working Capital INR Mil 6,161
Profitability Mar-10
Tax Rate % 20.04%
Net Margin % 21.32%
Asset Turnover (Average) 0.92
Return on Assets % 19.68%
Financial Leverage (Average) (Total Assets/ Total Equity) 3.69
Return on Equity % (Net Profit/ Average Equity) 61.40%
Return on Invested Capital % (EBIT/(Equity+Non Current Liability)) 38.86%
Interest Coverage #DIV/0!
Mar-11
Efficiency Mar-11
Days Sales Outstanding (Average Receivables/Net Credit Sales)*365 7.25
Days Inventory (Average Inventory/COGS)*365 51.96
Payables Period (Average Payables/COGS*365) 26.22
Cash Conversion Cycle (Days sales outstanding+ Days Inventory-Payables period) 32.99
Receivables Turnover (Sales/Average Receivables) 50.34
Receivables Period (365/Receivables Turnover) 7.25
Inventory Turnover (COGS/Average Inventory) 7.03
Fixed Assets Turnover (Sales/ Average PPE) 2.88
Asset Turnover (Sales/ Average Asset) 0.92
Mar-10
Enterprise Value/ EBIT 11.90
Enterprise Value/ EBITDA 11.90
Market Cap/EBIT 9.08
Green is the best performance year Red is the worst performance year
Profitability Ratios
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
35.84% 8.50% 8.68% 9.90% 10.28% 8.21% 10.12% 10.51%
64.16% 91.50% 91.32% 90.10% 89.72% 91.79% 89.88% 89.49%
18.70% 1.53% 3.86% 3.96% 3.73% 0.00% 2.64% 2.18%
17.98% 84.43% 67.16% 71.62% 79.02% 81.29% 71.60% 70.04%
27.47% 5.54% 20.30% 14.53% 6.97% 10.51% 15.64% 17.27%
23.90% 2.85% 20.10% 13.90% 6.24% 21.33% 17.88% 19.13%
Growth Ratios
Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Revenue %
6.81% 43.59% 5.23% 9.57% -14.16% 55.32% 11.55% 28.34%
18.54% 19.47% 0.22% 16.91% 17.57% 31.74% 13.96% 11.78%
10.21% 19.91% 13.50% 18.13% 16.61% 20.44% 13.98% 15.27%
16.47% 16.27% 13.98% 15.40%
Operating Income %
-78.45% 426.05% -24.70% -47.44% 29.42% 131.28% 23.11% -8.97%
107.63% 117.97% -14.24% 37.75% 61.27% 48.47% 13.60% 7.57%
60.98% 102.92% 22.33% 25.48% 40.30% 35.42% 13.76% 12.74%
53.00% 62.27% 17.48% 22.23%
Net Income %
-69.29% 383.57% -21.59% -45.85% 168.14% 17.15% 3.37% -26.67%
97.56% 105.38% 33.57% 46.48% 62.89% -2.05% 22.33% 22.39%
83.00% 100.29% 24.25% 23.23% 50.45% 17.54% 18.84% 22.06%
55.46% 63.55% 23.56% 28.12%
EPS %
-68.99% 378.78% -21.59% -45.85% 168.15% 17.14% 3.37% -27.29%
96.07% 103.78% 33.57% 46.48% 62.88% -2.26% 22.36% 22.43%
82.10% 99.33% 24.24% 23.10% 50.48% 17.56% 18.87% 22.08%
54.97% 63.03% 23.58% 28.13%
Efficiency Ratios
Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
7.07 8.97 13.86 19.03 21.96 26.86 16.93 28.33
71.86 422.09 352.88 421.51 477.58 900.56 607.25 625.36
24.08 197.23 100.24 84.41 137.66 267.10 227.23 230.10
54.84 233.82 266.50 356.14 361.88 660.33 396.94 423.59
51.63 40.71 26.34 19.18 16.62 13.59 21.56 12.88
7.07 8.97 13.86 19.03 21.96 26.86 16.93 28.33
5.08 0.86 1.03 0.87 0.76 0.41 0.60 0.58
2.57 2.15 2.92 2.41 2.01 1.64 2.06 1.56
0.88 0.79 1.00 0.87 0.81 0.56 0.65 0.62
Valuation Ratios
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
10.64 86.57 15.54 41.40 94.46 91.13 48.62 38.51
10.64 86.61 15.54 41.40 94.46 91.13 48.62 38.51
7.93 71.51 13.44 38.65 89.92 89.01 47.22 34.99
Du pont Analysis
Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Mar-20 Mar-21
Net Income 19313 20000
Depreciation and Amortization Charges 17662 19428
Interest Expense 1911 2003
Tax Rate 22.00% 22.00%
Fixed Capital Investment 13363 14164
Working Capital Investment 2091 2559
Free Cash Flow to Firm 23012 24267
Interest Expense 1911 2003
Tax Rate 22.00% 22.00%
Increase in Debt 4730 -4683
Free Cash Flow to Equity 26252 18022
Terminal Value
Free Cash Flow to Firm 45016.70
Growth Rate 6.00%
Cost of Capital 13.03%
Terminal Value 678734.07
Cost of Debt
erest Expense/Total Debt) 4.27%
Cost of Capital
ost of Equity 17.00%
in Target Capital Structure 68.83%
ost of Debt 4.27%
ebt in Capital Structure 31.17%
WACC 13.03%
13585.47
5 Way Du pont Analysis Component Visualization and A
Component Br
Tax Efficiency Interest Burden Operati
3.5
321%
280%
268%
2.5 249%
160%
156%
1.5
146%
113% 107%
107%
100%
1 96% 93%
88% 86% 95%
88% 87%
81% 88%
78%
79%
64%
0.5
27%
20% 20%
15%
7% 11%
6%
0
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
27%
20% 20%
15%
7% 11%
6%
0
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Component B
Tax Efficiency Interest Burden Op
4
321%
280%
268%
249%
160%
156%
146%
113%
107% 107%
100% 96%
95% 93%
88%
86% 88% 88% 87%
81% 79% 78%
64%
20%
0
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Visualization and Analysis
170% 17
166%
160% 160%
156%
151%
146% 145%
170% 17
166%
160% 160%
151%
146% 145%
07%
93% 91% 93% 90% 90% 90% 90%
8% 87% 84% 87% 85%
79% 82% 82%
8% 77%
71% 73% 73% 73%
64% 63%
173% 174%
166%
173% 174%
166%
200,000
150,000
100,000 95,530
85,638
64,232
55,704 58,620 55,136
50,000 38,794
36,321
27,106
0
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Payout Ratio %
50.00%
45.00%
40.00%
36.02%
35.00%
30.00%
27.01%
25.00%
20.90%
20.00%
15.00% 13.25%
40.00%
36.02%
35.00%
30.00%
27.01%
25.00%
20.90%
20.00%
15.00% 13.25%
0.00%
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2541.91
2199.43
2000.00 1675.03
1345.94
1098.17
1000.00
523.77 567.49
345.71
192.23
0.00
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
25,251
25,000
20,000
15,846
15,000
12,809
11,725 11,540 11,540 11,249
10,000 8,971
5,355
5,000
0
12,809
11,725 11,540 11,540 11,249
10,000 8,971
5,355
5,000
0
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
als Visualization and Analysis
217,267
190,585
161,513
131,311
122,606 125,058
95,530
85,638
ayout Ratio %
36.02%
23.81%
13.25%
36.02%
23.81%
13.25%
4831.37
4275.03
3797.77
3398.13
3075.03
2763.09
2541.91
2199.43
25,251
19,343
Compos
80.00%
72.91%
70.00%
64.31%
62.63% 62.40%
59.80%
60.00%
50.00%
40.20%
40.00% 37.36% 37.60%
35.69%
30.00%
27.09%
20.00%
10.00%
8.18% 8.61%
7.11% 7.30%
4.56%
0.00%
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Inv
Finanicial Health Ratios Visualization and Analysis
68.53% 68.94%
64.28%
62.40% 62.42%
58.76%
41.24%
37.60% 37.58%
35.72%
31.47% 31.06%
ommon Size)
57.84%
60.37%
66.02%
62.62%
62.42%
58.76%
94%
64.28%
62.40%
59.80% 40.20%
62.63% 37.36%
64.31% 35.69%
72.91% 27.09%
64.31% 35.69%
72.91% 27.09%
s (Common Size)
66.02%
62.42% 62.62%
60.37%
58.76% 57.84%
41.24% 42.16%
39.63%
37.58% 37.38%
33.98%
kholders' Equity
Mar-24
7.99%
4.51%
11.29%
6.63%
31.46%
39.00%
0.21%
26.97%
3.68%
6.48%
6.10%
27.53%
10.19%
2.38%
42.16%
57.84%
400.00%
400.00%
%
57.84%
42.16%
%
% 11.29%
23 Mar-24
Liquidity Ratios Visualiz
Mar-11 Mar-12
Liquidity R
4.00
3.69
3.50
3.00
2.80
2.68
2.49
2.50
2.28
2.09
2.00
1.64 1.60
1.60 1.56
1.55
1.46
1.44
1.50
1.32
1.00
0.50
0.00
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
1.64 1.32 1.60 1.55 1.44 1.65 1.92 2.22 1.47 1.76
1.25 0.55 0.97 0.75 0.54 0.46 0.97 0.70 0.58 0.70
2.68 2.49 1.60 1.56 1.46 1.45 1.70 1.60 1.60 1.51
1.15 0.93 0.23 0.24 0.22 0.19 0.37 0.38 0.26 0.25
Liquidity Ratios
2.22
1.92
1.70 1.76 1.73
1.65 1.60 1.60 1.66
1.56
1.55 1.51
1.46
1.44 1.45 1.47
1.29
1.14
1.73
1.66
1.29
1.14
Jan-23 Jan-24
Efficiency Ratios Vi
Mar-11
Days Sales Outstanding (Average Receivables/Net Credit Sales)*365 7.25
Days Inventory (Average Inventory/COGS)*365 51.96
Payables Period (Average Payables/COGS*365) 26.22
Cash Conversion Cycle (Days sales outstanding+ Days Inventory-Payables period) 32.99
Receivables Turnover (Sales/Average Receivables) 50.34
Receivables Period (365/Receivables Turnover) 7.25
Inventory Turnover (COGS/Average Inventory) 7.03
Fixed Assets Turnover (Sales/ Average PPE) 2.88
Asset Turnover (Sales/ Average Asset) 0.92
Efficien
1000.00
900.56
900.00
800.00
700.00
660.33
600.00
500.00 477.58
422.09 421.51
400.00
352.88 356.14 361.88
300.00
266.50 267.10
233.82
197.23
200.00
137.66
100.24
100.00 84.41
71.86
51.96 54.84
32.99
26.22 24.08 21.96 26.86
8.97 13.86 19.03
7.25 7.07
0.00
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
7.07 8.97 13.86 19.03 21.96 26.86 16.93 28.33 26.64 22.91
71.86 422.09 352.88 421.51 477.58 900.56 607.25 625.36 533.86 573.16
24.08 197.23 100.24 84.41 137.66 267.10 227.23 230.10 164.05 187.04
54.84 233.82 266.50 356.14 361.88 660.33 396.94 423.59 396.45 409.02
51.63 40.71 26.34 19.18 16.62 13.59 21.56 12.88 13.70 15.93
7.07 8.97 13.86 19.03 21.96 26.86 16.93 28.33 26.64 22.91
5.08 0.86 1.03 0.87 0.76 0.41 0.60 0.58 0.68 0.64
2.57 2.15 2.92 2.41 2.01 1.64 2.06 1.56 1.77 1.84
0.88 0.79 1.00 0.87 0.81 0.56 0.65 0.62 0.75 0.71
Efficiency Ratios
900.56
660.33
625.36 623.48
607.25 609.50
573.16
533.86
477.58
444.94 434.96
423.59
409.02
396.94 396.45
361.88
267.10
227.23 230.10
203.47 198.91
187.04
164.05
137.66
623.48
609.50
598.32
bles period)
24.92 24.36 23.91
bles period)
Cashflow Ratios Visualization and An
1500.00%
1000.00%
697.01%
500.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-69.87%
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
-150.72% Mar-16
-161.77% Mar-17 Mar-18 -122.1
Mar-
-197.91% -171.69%
-500.00% -554.39%
-1000.00%
March-10 to March-19)
1518.67%
Percentage Ma
400.00%
3.69
350.00%
300.00%
2.80
2.68
2.49
250.00%
200.00%
1.60 1.56
1.46 1.
150.00%
100.00%
42.91%
50.00% 35.84%
28.72% 27.47%
20.30% 15.6
14.53%
9.90% 10.28% 10.51% 10.1
8.50%
5.54% 8.68% 6.97% 8.21%
0.00%
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar
ROE,ROA,RO
ROE,ROA,RO
90%
80% 46.10%
52.91%
51.19%
70%
41.97% 38.20% 39.4
45.53% 38.32%
60%
50%
40%
31.70%
30% 25.43%
24.30% 24.8
22.04%
20.52%
20%
16.41% 16.70%
10%
0%
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Ma
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
8.68% 9.90% 10.28% 8.21% 10.12% 10.51% 10.56% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
91.32% 90.10% 89.72% 91.79% 89.88% 89.49% 89.44% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00%
20.30% 14.53% 6.97% 10.51% 15.64% 17.27% 12.25% 15.21% 15.21% 15.21%
20.10% 13.90% 6.24% 21.33% 17.88% 19.13% 9.34% 16.68% 16.68% 16.69%
18.02% 13.43% 6.64% 20.73% 15.64% 14.49% 8.28% 15.44% 15.23% 15.32%
18.09% 11.67% 5.37% 11.59% 10.18% 9.04% 6.21% 10.97% 9.99% 10.33%
2.49 1.60 1.56 1.46 1.45 1.70 1.60 1.60 1.51 1.66
34.44% 18.40% 8.06% 16.86% 16.14% 14.91% 9.93% 17.05% 15.88% 17.51%
29.52% 17.95% 7.68% 8.12% 14.60% 13.55% 11.23% 14.04% 13.47% 14.74%
argin Net Margin % Financial Leverage (Average) (Total Assets/ Total Equity)
ROE,ROA,ROIC Chart
ROE,ROA,ROIC Chart
46.10%
31.70%
Net Profit/ Average Equity) Return on Invested Capital % (EBIT/(Equity+Non Current Liability))
Mar-23 Mar-24
10.00% 10.00%
90.00% 90.00%
15.21% 15.21%
16.70% 16.70%
15.50% 15.85%
10.69% 11.71%
1.73 1.74
18.54% 20.37%
15.46% 15.69%
1.73 1.74
15.21% 15.21%
10.00% 10.00%
Mar-23 Mar-24
% 34.59% 32.85%
42.64%
% 41.49%
% 23.92% 24.52%
Valuation Ratios Visualization and An
Valuation Ratios
100.00
89.92
94.46 89.01
90.00 91.13
86.61
80.00
71.51
70.00
60.00
50.00 47.22
48.62
40.00 38.65
41.40
34.99
38.51
30.00
20.00
13.44
15.54
9.08
10.00 7.93
11.90 10.64
0.00
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
aluation Ratios
47.22 47.47
48.62 49.68
34.99
38.51
25.00 23.81
27.26 26.06
19.36
21.59 16.41
18.63 14.39
16.61