P11 Valuation
P11 Valuation
P11 Valuation
1. Price Multiple
2. Discounted Dividend Model (DDM)
3. Discounted Abnormal Earnings (AE)
4. Discounted Abnormal Operating Earnings (AOE)
5. Discounted Cash Flow
FORECASTING
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted TV
1. Forecast Sales 5.045.000.000 5.499.050.000 5.883.983.500 6.354.702.180 6.863.078.354 7.412.124.623 8.005.094.593
2. Forecast ATO & Calculate NOA 4.619.338.000 4.938.910.000 4.953.520.000 5.621.644.322 6.071.375.868 6.557.085.937 7.081.652.812
3. Revise Sales Forecast
4. Forecast PM & Calculate NOPAT 639.240.000 792.385.000 984.953.000 928.206.202 1.002.462.699 1.082.659.714 1.169.272.492
5. Forecast Other Operating Income
6. Calculate Free Cash Flow
Change in NOA 319.572.000 14.610.000 668.124.322 449.731.546 485.710.069 524.566.875
Calculate FCF 472.813.000 970.343.000 260.081.880 552.731.153 596.949.645 644.705.617
7. Forecast Net Dividend Payout 5.392.400 20.771.550 14.699.060 18.564.124 20.049.254 21.653.194 23.385.450
8. Calculate Net Payments to Debt Holders 452.041.450 955.643.940 241.517.756 532.681.899 575.296.451 621.320.167
9. Forecast Cost of Debt and Debt Balance
Forecast Cost of Debt 7,48% 6,18% 4,86% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Opening Debt Balance 3.245.000.000 3.795.817.450 3.578.300.000 2.796.615.060 2.778.826.509 2.468.450.731 2.090.630.339
Calculate Cost of Debt 242.729.200 234.524.000 173.959.000 223.729.205 222.306.121 197.476.058 167.250.427
Calculate Closing Debt
(Opening + Interest - 3.795.817.450 3.578.300.000 2.796.615.060 2.778.826.509 2.468.450.731 2.090.630.339 1.636.560.599
Check Leverage 82% 72% 56% 49% 41% 32% 23%
10. Calculate Comprehensive Income
(NOPAT - NFEAT) 396.510.800 557.861.000 810.994.000 704.476.998 780.156.578 885.183.656 1.002.022.064
11. Calculate Equity
Equity = Asset - Liability 823.520.550 1.360.610.000 2.156.904.940 2.842.817.813 3.602.925.137 4.466.455.599 5.445.092.214
Equity = Opening equity
+ comprehensive 823.520.550 1.360.610.000 2.156.904.940 2.842.817.813 3.602.925.137 4.466.455.599 5.445.092.214
Check - - - - - - -
The Concept of Value Creation
AVERAGE VALUATION C
P/S 1,36 SALES: 1,36 * 18.243 = 24.826,34
P/E 39,37 EARNING 39,37 * 1.460 = 57.477,67
P/B 5,72 BV 5,72 * 2.321 = 13.277,55
95.581,55
VALUATION C 95.581,55 = 31.860,52
3
Method 2 Discounted Dividend Model
• Value the firm based on the dividends (paid to the shareholders)
• It is the Present Value of the all-future cash inflow:
– dividends
– Liquidating dividend (terminal value=TV)
– PV Firm Value = Dividends + TV Dividends
• Valuation Issue
– How to forecast the dividend (growth)
– How to determine the time horizon (of valuation)
– How to determine Terminal Value (TV)
• TV contiues constan in perpetuity
• TV continues with growth in perpetuity
• TV = 0
– How to calculate discount rate
• Discounted Dividend Model Issues
– Dividend Payout policy is depending on the firm (arbitrary) and can not
linked to the value of the firm (some even do not pay dividend)
– Firm also can borrow to pay dividends (it does not reflect value creation)
Dividend Discount Model
• Liquidating dividend is the proceeds left after selling all the firm’s
assets at the end of its life and paying out the creditors
T
V (1 rE ) d t TVT (1 rE )
E
0
t T
t 1
• Important:
1. Values equity (not assets)
2. Because valuing equity, use the equity cost of capital
Dividend Discount Model – problem of
the length of the project?
d d d
VDDM: 1
2
3
.....
e 2 3
E E E
d T +1 dT +1
TV T = PT = or TVT = PT =
ρE -1 r
e
E
2
E
3
E
E
t
1. Forecast dividends
2. Estimate cost of capital for equity
3. Calculate forecast dividend growth patterns to estimate TV
calculation method
• Zero
• Perpetuity or
• Perpetuity with growth
=2.130,3/(16%-15%) 1.161
1.162
1.163 and so forth
=1.852,3/156%
=213.015,1/156%
FORECASTING
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted TV
1. Forecast Sales 5.045.000.000 5.499.050.000 5.883.983.500 6.354.702.180 6.863.078.354 7.412.124.623 8.005.094.593
2. Forecast ATO & Calculate NOA 4.619.338.000 4.938.910.000 4.953.520.000 5.621.644.322 6.071.375.868 6.557.085.937 7.081.652.812
3. Revise Sales Forecast
4. Forecast PM & Calculate NOPAT 639.240.000 792.385.000 984.953.000 928.206.202 1.002.462.699 1.082.659.714 1.169.272.492
5. Forecast Other Operating Income
6. Calculate Free Cash Flow
Change in NOA 319.572.000 14.610.000 668.124.322 449.731.546 485.710.069 524.566.875
Calculate FCF 472.813.000 970.343.000 260.081.880 552.731.153 596.949.645 644.705.617
7. Forecast Net Dividend Payout 5.392.400 20.771.550 14.699.060 18.564.124 20.049.254 21.653.194 23.385.450
8. Calculate Net Payments to Debt Holders 452.041.450 955.643.940 241.517.756 532.681.899 575.296.451 621.320.167
9. Forecast Cost of Debt and Debt Balance
Forecast Cost of Debt 7,48% 6,18% 4,86% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Opening Debt Balance 3.245.000.000 3.795.817.450 3.578.300.000 2.796.615.060 2.778.826.509 2.468.450.731 2.090.630.339
Calculate Cost of Debt 242.729.200 234.524.000 173.959.000 223.729.205 222.306.121 197.476.058 167.250.427
Calculate Closing Debt
(Opening + Interest - 3.795.817.450 3.578.300.000 2.796.615.060 2.778.826.509 2.468.450.731 2.090.630.339 1.636.560.599
Check Leverage 82% 72% 56% 49% 41% 32% 23%
10. Calculate Comprehensive Income
(NOPAT - NFEAT) 396.510.800 557.861.000 810.994.000 704.476.998 780.156.578 885.183.656 1.002.022.064
11. Calculate Equity
Equity = Asset - Liability 823.520.550 1.360.610.000 2.156.904.940 2.842.817.813 3.602.925.137 4.466.455.599 5.445.092.214
Equity = Opening equity
+ comprehensive 823.520.550 1.360.610.000 2.156.904.940 2.842.817.813 3.602.925.137 4.466.455.599 5.445.092.214
Check - - - - - - -
Dividend Discount Model: Issues
(i) A firm’s dividend payout policy can be arbitrary and not linked to value
added –some don’t even pay dividends!
(ii) A firm can borrow to pay dividends – paying out borrowing as
dividends does not reflect value creation
(iii) Liquidating firms?
=4.200/(14%-12%)
FORECASTING
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted TV
1. Forecast Sales 5.045.000.000 5.499.050.000 5.883.983.500 6.354.702.180 6.863.078.354 7.412.124.623 8.005.094.593
2. Forecast ATO & Calculate NOA 4.619.338.000 4.938.910.000 4.953.520.000 5.621.644.322 6.071.375.868 6.557.085.937 7.081.652.812
3. Revise Sales Forecast
4. Forecast PM & Calculate NOPAT 639.240.000 792.385.000 984.953.000 928.206.202 1.002.462.699 1.082.659.714 1.169.272.492
5. Forecast Other Operating Income
6. Calculate Free Cash Flow
Change in NOA 319.572.000 14.610.000 668.124.322 449.731.546 485.710.069 524.566.875
Calculate FCF 472.813.000 970.343.000 260.081.880 552.731.153 596.949.645 644.705.617
7. Forecast Net Dividend Payout 5.392.400 20.771.550 14.699.060 18.564.124 20.049.254 21.653.194 23.385.450
8. Calculate Net Payments to Debt Holders 452.041.450 955.643.940 241.517.756 532.681.899 575.296.451 621.320.167
9. Forecast Cost of Debt and Debt Balance
Forecast Cost of Debt 7,48% 6,18% 4,86% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Opening Debt Balance 3.245.000.000 3.795.817.450 3.578.300.000 2.796.615.060 2.778.826.509 2.468.450.731 2.090.630.339
Calculate Cost of Debt 242.729.200 234.524.000 173.959.000 223.729.205 222.306.121 197.476.058 167.250.427
Calculate Closing Debt
(Opening + Interest - 3.795.817.450 3.578.300.000 2.796.615.060 2.778.826.509 2.468.450.731 2.090.630.339 1.636.560.599
Check Leverage 82% 72% 56% 49% 41% 32% 23%
10. Calculate Comprehensive Income
(NOPAT - NFEAT) 396.510.800 557.861.000 810.994.000 704.476.998 780.156.578 885.183.656 1.002.022.064
11. Calculate Equity
Equity = Asset - Liability 823.520.550 1.360.610.000 2.156.904.940 2.842.817.813 3.602.925.137 4.466.455.599 5.445.092.214
Equity = Opening equity
+ comprehensive 823.520.550 1.360.610.000 2.156.904.940 2.842.817.813 3.602.925.137 4.466.455.599 5.445.092.214
Check - - - - - - -
Modification that uses discounted abnormal
operating income
• Start with the accounting equation
• Equity = A – L
• Value of equity = value of assets (firm) – value of debt
=3.432/(16%-15%)
Method 5 Discounted Cash Flow Model
• Similar to the abnormal earnings valuation method, the
DCF derives from the discounted dividend model:
– Free cash flow (FCF) = dividends + net cash to debt holders
– Dividends = free cash flow to equity
– Equity value = PV free cash flow to equity
– Alternatively, you can write the DCF model to estimate the value
of the firm (equity + debt), and then subtract the market value of
debt
Method 5 Discounted Cash Flow Model
• Calculating FCF and TV, then PV back with discount rate
of WACC to get the FV
• FCF = Nopat + Depreciation Expense - Increase in Net
Working Capital - Increase in Capital Expenditure
Method 5 Discounted Cash Flow Model
1. Forecast free cash flow
2. Estimate cost of capital for the firm
3. Calculate forecast FCF growth patterns to estimate TV
calculation method (0, perpetuity or perpetuity with
growth)
4. Calculate TV at time T (where growth pattern stabilises)
5. Discount forecast FCF to TV year, discount the TV, add
together for total firm value
6. Firm value less book value of debt = equity value
Satyan's Company Value Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
year 1 2 3 4 5 6
1. Forecast FCF 1.519 2.031 2.764 3.178 3.655 4.203
book value of debt 5.425
2. estimate cost of capital for
0,160 1,160 1,346 1,561 1,811 2,100 2,436
the firm
3. Calculate forecast fcf
34% 36% 15% 15% 15%
growth patterns
4. Calculate TV (perpetuity
365.503
with growth)
5. Discount ae to TV year 6.345 1.310 1.509 1.771 1.755
Discount TV 201.864 201.864
Total value of the firm 208.209
value of debt 5.425
Total value of equity 202.784
=2.031-1.519/1.519 1.161
1.162
=(3.655/(16%-15%) 1.163 and so forth
=3.178/1.811
FORECASTING
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted TV
1. Forecast Sales 5.045.000.000 5.499.050.000 5.883.983.500 6.354.702.180 6.863.078.354 7.412.124.623 8.005.094.593
2. Forecast ATO & Calculate NOA 4.619.338.000 4.938.910.000 4.953.520.000 5.621.644.322 6.071.375.868 6.557.085.937 7.081.652.812
3. Revise Sales Forecast
4. Forecast PM & Calculate NOPAT 639.240.000 792.385.000 984.953.000 928.206.202 1.002.462.699 1.082.659.714 1.169.272.492
5. Forecast Other Operating Income
6. Calculate Free Cash Flow
Change in NOA 319.572.000 14.610.000 668.124.322 449.731.546 485.710.069 524.566.875
Calculate FCF 472.813.000 970.343.000 260.081.880 552.731.153 596.949.645 644.705.617
7. Forecast Net Dividend Payout 5.392.400 20.771.550 14.699.060 18.564.124 20.049.254 21.653.194 23.385.450
8. Calculate Net Payments to Debt Holders 452.041.450 955.643.940 241.517.756 532.681.899 575.296.451 621.320.167
9. Forecast Cost of Debt and Debt Balance
Forecast Cost of Debt 7,48% 6,18% 4,86% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Opening Debt Balance 3.245.000.000 3.795.817.450 3.578.300.000 2.796.615.060 2.778.826.509 2.468.450.731 2.090.630.339
Calculate Cost of Debt 242.729.200 234.524.000 173.959.000 223.729.205 222.306.121 197.476.058 167.250.427
Calculate Closing Debt
(Opening + Interest - 3.795.817.450 3.578.300.000 2.796.615.060 2.778.826.509 2.468.450.731 2.090.630.339 1.636.560.599
Check Leverage 82% 72% 56% 49% 41% 32% 23%
10. Calculate Comprehensive Income
(NOPAT - NFEAT) 396.510.800 557.861.000 810.994.000 704.476.998 780.156.578 885.183.656 1.002.022.064
11. Calculate Equity
Equity = Asset - Liability 823.520.550 1.360.610.000 2.156.904.940 2.842.817.813 3.602.925.137 4.466.455.599 5.445.092.214
Equity = Opening equity
+ comprehensive 823.520.550 1.360.610.000 2.156.904.940 2.842.817.813 3.602.925.137 4.466.455.599 5.445.092.214
Check - - - - - - -