Foreign Affairs - 01 2022

THE NEW WORLD ORDER OF XI JINPING
JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2022
january/february 2022 • volume 101 • number 1 •
digital disorder
Digital
Disorder
War and Peace
in the Cyber Age
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Volume 101, Number 1
DIGITAL DISORDER
America’s Cyber-Reckoning 10
How to Fix a Failing Strategy
Sue Gordon and Eric Rosenbach
A World Without Trust 22

The Insidious Cyberthreat
Jacquelyn Schneider
The End of Cyber-Anarchy? 32

How to Build a New Digital Order
Joseph S. Nye, Jr.
COVE R: DAN BEJAR
The Case for Cyber-Realism 44

Geopolitical Problems Don’t Have Technical Solutions
Dmitri Alperovitch
Januar y/Februar y 2022

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ESSAYS
Xi Jinping’s New World Order 52

Can China Remake the International System?
Elizabeth Economy
Green Upheaval 68
The New Geopolitics of Energy
Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan
Keeping the Wrong Secrets 85

How Washington Misses the Real Security Threat
Oona A. Hathaway
The Real Crisis of Global Order 103

Illiberalism on the Rise
Alexander Cooley and Daniel H. Nexon
The Revolution Will Not Be Privatized 119

Corporate Responsibility and Its Limits
Diane Coyle
All Against All 128

The Sectarian Resurgence in the Post-American Middle East
Vali Nasr
India’s Stalled Rise 139

How the State Has Stifled Growth
Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman
ON FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COM
elebogile Zvobgo on
K udrey Kurth Cronin
A illiam Nordhaus on
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the ICC’s Afghanistan on the future of U.S. the failure of climate
investigation. drone warfare. policy.

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The Coming Carbon Tsunami 151
Developing Countries Need a New Growth Model—Before
It’s Too Late
Kelly Sims Gallagher
REVIEWS & RESPONSES

The Art of War 166
Can Culture Drive Geopolitics?
Beverly Gage
A New Cuba? 173

The Fight to Define the Post-Castro Era
Jon Lee Anderson
From the Jaws of Retreat 180

Vietnam, Afghanistan, and the Persistence of American Ambition
Erez Manela
Recent Books 187
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Volume 1, Number 1 • September 1922
January/February 2022 · Volume 101, Number 1
Published by the Council on Foreign Relations
DANIEL KURTZ-PHELAN Editor, Peter G. Peterson Chair
STUART REID, JUSTIN VOGT Executive Editors
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CONTRIBUTORS
DMITRI ALPEROVITCH is one of the world’s foremost experts
on cybersecurity, online espionage, and cyberwarfare. Born
in Russia, Alperovitch immigrated to the United States in
1995. He is a co-founder of CrowdStrike, an information
security company, and has served as a special adviser at the
U.S. Department of Defense. He is currently the chair of
Silverado Policy Accelerator, a cybersecurity think tank that
he also co-founded. In “The Case for Cyber-Realism”
(page 44), he argues that the United States should see
cyberthreats as rooted in geopolitical problems that technical
solutions alone cannot address.
OONA HATHAWAY is a leading authority on international law

and national security. After earning her J.D. from Yale,
Hathaway clerked for Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day
O’Connor and later served as special counsel at the U.S.
Defense Department. She is currently a professor of interna-
tional law at Yale Law School and an executive editor at Just
Security. In “Keeping the Wrong Secrets” (page 85), she
argues that Washington obsesses about the wrong secrets,
imperiling national security by prioritizing classification
instead of protecting privacy.
Born and raised in Tehran, VALI NASR immigrated to the

United States following the 1979 Iranian Revolution. After
studying at MIT, Nasr began his career as an academic and
later went on to serve as senior adviser to the U.S. special
representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. From 2012 to
2019, he was dean of the Johns Hopkins University School of
Advanced International Studies, where he is currently a
professor. In “All Against All” (page 128), he argues that as
the United States withdraws from an increasingly sectarian
Middle East, the region’s future will depend on Washington’s
ability to foster dialogue and strike a nuclear deal with Iran.
The son of a children’s book writer and an expert on

agricultural and foreign aid, JON LEE ANDERSON is an ac-
claimed journalist, investigative reporter, and war corre-
spondent. A staff writer at The New Yorker, Anderson has
also written multiple books on contemporary conflict and
has profiled figures across Latin America, including Au-
gusto Pinochet, Fidel Castro, and Hugo Chávez. In “A New
Cuba?” (page 173), he reviews Ada Ferrer’s book Cuba: An
American History and considers the prospects for change in
the post-Castro era.
DIGITAL DISORDER
A
decade ago, U.S. Secretary of relations. “If trust is what’s at stake,”
Defense Leon Panetta issued a she writes, “. . . then the steps states
stark warning about the must take to survive and operate in this
dangers of a “cyber–Pearl Harbor”—a new world are different” from anything
digital attack that would cause real- governments have done to this point.
world death and destruction. The Joseph Nye and Dmitri Alperovitch,
subsequent years have, in one sense, in their respective essays, contend that
made that fear seem overblown; after policymakers have erred in treating
all, the most dire scenarios that Pa- cyberthreats as fundamentally different
netta and others dreaded have not from other security threats. Accord-
come to pass. But in another sense, the ingly, Nye stresses that it would be a
warning seems, if anything, too re- mistake to give up on building a system
strained: today, governments, busi- of norms to tame “cyber-anarchy.”
nesses, and citizens alike face pervasive “Although cybertechnology presents
and unrelenting cyberthreats that unique challenges,” he observes, “inter-
would have been hard to imagine in national norms to govern its use appear
2012, adding layers of risk and com- to be developing in the usual way:
plexity to already fraught problems of slowly but steadily, over the course of
security, politics, and governance. decades.” Alperovitch argues that
As the costs have mounted, policy- “cyberspace is not an isolated realm of
makers have struggled to respond. Part its own . . . but an extension of the
of the problem, argue Sue Gordon and broader geopolitical battlefield”—which
Eric Rosenbach, is that “the domain of demands, in turn, geopolitical solutions,
cyberspace is shaped not by a binary not narrow technical ones.
between war and peace but by a spec- Although these authors’ precise
trum between those two poles—and recommendations vary, there is a
most cyberattacks fall somewhere in common thread to their analyses: a
that murky space.” But strategies to worry that, even as the symptoms
counter them have failed to reflect this worsen, we still struggle to grasp the
reality, leaving the advantage to attack- underlying condition. Without a clear
ers even after years of effort. diagnosis, a cure remains elusive.
To Jacquelyn Schneider, the fore- —Daniel Kurtz-Phelan, Editor
most danger is the way that cyber-
threats target the trust that undergirds
well-functioning economies, effective
governments, and stable international
America’s Cyber-Reckoning The End of Cyber-Anarchy?
Sue Gordon and Eric Rosenbach 10 Joseph S. Nye, Jr. 32
DAN BEJAR
A World Without Trust The Case for Cyber-Realism

Jacquelyn Schneider 22 Dmitri Alperovitch 44
I L L U ST R AT I O N S BY T K
Behind those mistaken warnings lay
America’s an assumption that the only alternative
DIGITAL DISORDER
to cyberpeace must be cyberwar. But in

Cyber-Reckoning the years since, it has become clear that
like all realms of conflict, the domain of
cyberspace is shaped not by a binary
How to Fix a Failing between war and peace but by a spec-
Strategy trum between those two poles—and
most cyberattacks fall somewhere in
Sue Gordon and Eric Rosenbach that murky space. The obvious upside
of this outcome is that the worst fears
of death and destruction have not been
realized. There is a downside, however:
A
decade ago, the conventional the complex nature of cyberconflict has
wisdom held that the world made it more difficult for the United
was on the cusp of a new era States to craft an effective cyberstrat-
of cyberconflict in which catastrophic egy. And even if lives have not been
computer-based attacks would wreak lost and infrastructure has mostly been
havoc on the physical world. News spared, it is hardly the case that cyber-
media warned of doomsday scenarios; attacks have been harmless. U.S.
officials in Washington publicly adversaries have honed their cyber-
fretted about a “cyber–Pearl Harbor” skills to inflict damage on U.S. national
that would take lives and destroy security, the American economy, and,
critical infrastructure. The most dire most worrisome of all, American
predictions, however, did not come to democracy. Meanwhile, Washington has
pass. The United States has not been struggled to move past its initial per-
struck by devastating cyberattacks ception of the problem, clinging to
with physical effects; it seems that outmoded ideas that have limited its
even if U.S. adversaries wanted to responses. The United States has also
carry out such assaults, traditional demonstrated an unwillingness to
forms of deterrence would prevent consistently confront its adversaries in
them from acting. the cyber-realm and has suffered from
serious self-inflicted wounds that have
SUE GORDON is a Senior Fellow at the
left it in a poor position to advance its
Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Sci- national interests in cyberspace.
ence and International Affairs. She served as To do better, the United States must
Principal Deputy Director of National Intelli-
gence from 2017 to 2019, after nearly three
focus on the most pernicious threats of
decades at the CIA. all: cyberattacks aimed at weakening
societal trust, the underpinnings of
ERIC ROSENBACH is Co-Director of the
Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Sci- democracy, and the functioning of a
ence and International Affairs. He served as the globalized economy. The Biden adminis-
Pentagon’s Chief of Staff from 2015 to 2017 and tration seems to recognize the need for a
as U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for
Homeland Defense and Global Security from new approach. But to make significant
2014 to 2015. progress, it will need to reform the
10 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s package illustrations by adriÀ fruitÓs

country’s cyberstrategy, starting with its the most destructive in history and
most fundamental aspect: the way marked the first time a government had
Washington understands the problem. employed an offensive operation in
cyberspace against a U.S. partner. The
SHOTS FIRED strikes rattled world energy markets. To
The first known cyberattack occurred in signal support for the Saudis, Washing-
1988, when Robert Morris, a graduate ton deployed a team of Pentagon
student in computer science, released a cybersecurity experts to Riyadh.
small piece of software—eventually Two months after the Iranian
dubbed “the Morris worm”—that attacks, U.S. Secretary of Defense
created outages across the still nascent Leon Panetta gave a high-profile
Internet. During the two decades that speech in which he warned of other
followed, cybersecurity remained the countries or terrorists using cyberweap-
concern mostly of geeky hackers and ons to derail passenger trains or freight
shadowy intelligence operatives. That trains loaded with lethal chemicals,
all changed in 2010 with the Stuxnet contaminate water supplies in major
operation, a devastatingly effective cities, shut down the power grid, or dis-
cyberattack on centrifuges that Iran able communication networks and
used to enrich uranium. U.S. leaders military hardware. Americans, Panetta
soon began sounding the alarm about declared, needed to prepare for a kind
their own country’s vulnerability. As of “cyber–Pearl Harbor: an attack that
early as 2009, President Barack Obama would cause physical destruction and
had warned of cyberattacks that could the loss of life [and would] paralyze
plunge “entire cities into darkness.” and shock the nation and create a new,
Three years later, while briefing the profound sense of vulnerability.”
Senate Armed Services Committee, Panetta also attempted to outline the
Keith Alexander, the director of the U.S. strategy for deterrence in cyber-
National Security Agency (nsa), said it space, arguing that “improved defenses
was only a matter of time before cyber- alone” would prove insufficient. When
attacks destroyed critical infrastructure. the U.S. national security services
Around the same time, Senator Jay detected an imminent cyberattack of
Rockefeller, Democrat of West Virginia, significant consequences, he said, they
claimed that “the prospect of mass would need “the option to take action.”
casualties” made cyberattacks “as And so, he explained, the military had
dangerous as terrorism.” developed “the capability to conduct
These warnings seemed prescient effective [offensive cyber-]operations to
when, in 2012, Iranian operatives counter threats to [U.S.] national
targeted the oil company Saudi Aramco interests in cyberspace.”
with malware, wiping out data on From 2012 to 2014, the National
30,000 computers. Two weeks later, Security Council staff held dozens of
Iran targeted the Qatari company senior-level meetings to draft a compli-
RasGas, one of the largest natural gas cated set of policies—known as Presi-
producers in the world, in a similar dential Policy Directive 20—that
strike. These cyberattacks were by far established guidelines for when the
12 f o r e i g n a f fa i r s
America’s Cyber-Reckoning
United States could launch offensive LESSONS NOT LEARNED

cyber-operations to deter future attacks. Part of the problem was that the Obama
At the Pentagon, the Joint Staff devoted administration took an old-school
several straight months to developing approach to cyberspace that was stuck,
strict protocols for when the secretary in some ways, in an archaic, Cold
of defense could approve an “emergency War–style paradigm according to which
cyber action”—a targeted cyberattack to cyber-operations could quickly escalate
neutralize and counter an adversarial into a full-blown war. This perspective
attack on the homeland. carried over into the Pentagon’s deci-
That planning was put to the test in sions when it came to building a force
2014, when North Korean operatives structure for the cyber-domain: in 2009,
conducted the first-ever destructive Secretary of Defense Robert Gates
cyberattack on U.S. soil, exfiltrating established U.S. Cyber Command,
heaps of confidential information from which is subordinate to the four-star
servers belonging to Sony Pictures, commander of U.S. Strategic Com-
which was planning to release a film mand, the notoriously slow-moving
that mocked the North Korean dictator organization that oversees the country’s
Kim Jong Un. The hackers spread the nuclear weapons. This structure sug-
information, including embarrassing gested that the administration saw
emails, throughout the Internet; conflict in the cyber-domain as analo-
knocked out Sony’s digital networks; gous to nuclear conflict or military
and threatened to carry out further activities in outer space, rather than as a
“terrorist attacks” in cyberspace. For dynamic sphere of operations more akin
weeks, the U.S. intelligence community to counterterrorism or the world of
feared that North Korean operatives had special forces. Gates also determined
prepositioned cybermunitions inside that the new command would not carry
American critical infrastructure and out so-called information operations
would soon detonate them. designed to influence the perceptions,
That did not happen, and in many thoughts, or beliefs of foreign actors in
ways, the Obama administration’s ways that would serve U.S. strategy.
response to the attack was sophisticated These decisions delighted Washing-
and effective. The president directly ton’s Russian adversaries. During a 2013
called out the North Koreans for the meeting between senior U.S. defense
hack, and the administration immedi- officials and their Russian counterparts,
ately levied economic sanctions, the first a high-ranking officer in the Russian
ever imposed in response to a cyberat- military, General Nikolai Makarov,
tack. The combination of public attribu- taunted the Americans. “One uses
tion and sanctions seemed to deter information to destroy nations, not
Pyongyang from conducting additional networks,” he said. “That’s why we’re
attacks. But the most important take- happy that you Americans are so stupid
away was that even after two years of as to build an entire Cyber Command
planning and development, the U.S. that doesn’t have a mission of informa-
military did not have the cyber-response tion warfare!” At the time, defense
capabilities Panetta had promised. leaders didn’t consider that the United
Januar y/Februar y 2022 13

States might be one of the nations that experts narrowly prevented the assault
Makarov had in mind. After Russian from succeeding. But the White House
interference in the U.S. presidential was unwilling to confront Russia or
election three years later, his remarks provide Ukraine with any type of
took on an even more sinister cast. support in the cyber-domain.
Cyber Command’s structure and Then, in December 2015, Russian-
mission had serious consequences in the backed operatives attacked Ukraine’s
years that followed, especially in the U.S. electric grid, leaving parts of the coun-
campaign against the Islamic State (also try without power for days in the midst
known as isis). The Pentagon had of winter weather. Once again, the
structured the new organization and Obama administration stood by without
designed its capabilities based on existing responding. This likely contributed to
war plans that focused on rival countries; Russian President Vladimir Putin’s
as a result, Cyber Command had very calculus that he could conduct cyber-
few resources dedicated to counterterror- and information operations to interfere
ism. During the first two years of the with the U.S. presidential election in
conflict, poor leadership at the top, a lack 2016 without fear of reprisal. He was
of operational capability, and an unwill- right: the Obama administration did
ingness to risk intelligence sources and little to push back against Russian
methods resulted in Cyber Command’s meddling during the summer and fall of
failure to disrupt ISIS operations. In 2015, 2016—until it became a crisis and hit
this debacle led a top military com- the front page of The New York Times.
mander of the U.S. effort against isis to The Obama White House proved
declare, “I only wish that Cyber Com- similarly unwilling to confront China
mand could inflict as much pain on isis over its transgressions in cyberspace.
as disa does on me!” (Disa, the Defense This was of a piece with the administra-
Information Systems Agency, provides tion’s emphasis on building stable
tech support to the U.S. military.) economic relations with Beijing, which
Beneath these flawed decisions on also overrode concerns about Chinese
organization and mission lay a deeper human rights abuses and China’s
failure to learn the lessons of the 2014 aggressive military moves in the South
North Korean hack of Sony: cyberat- China Sea. Even before North Korea’s
tacks require an immediate response, Sony attack, China had taken advantage
public attribution, and diplomatic of this passivity to steal American
confrontation. In the wake of that intellectual property on a massive scale
attack, China and Russia each carried between 2008 and 2013, to the tune of
out an increasingly bold and insidious between $200 billion and $600 billion
wave of cyberattacks. In the spring of of value per year. The strategic impact
2014, for example, a group of operatives of this theft is difficult to prove empiri-
linked to the Kremlin attempted to cally, but it almost certainly gave a huge
derail the Ukrainian presidential lift to Beijing’s Made in China 2025
election with a potent combination of initiative, which seeks to advance
hacking, disinformation, and denial-of- China’s domestic production of artificial
service attacks. Ukrainian cybersecurity intelligence systems, telecommunica-
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1. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Outlook Handbook, Information Security
Analysts, at https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/information-security-analysts.htm
tions, clean energy technology, aero- Later that year, National Security
space products, and biotechnology. Adviser John Bolton announced that
Later, in 2014 and 2015, Chinese the administration would take a more
intelligence operatives penetrated aggressive approach to offensive cyber-
networks belonging to the U.S. Office operations by permitting the military,
of Personnel Management and exfil- with the approval of the secretary of
trated the personnel files of around defense, to conduct operations below
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employees and more than two million tack.” This policy, known as National
current ones, including information on Security Presidential Memorandum 13,
nearly all the background investiga- set the foundation for cyber-operations,
tions of Americans who held security such as denial-of-service attacks and
clearances at the top-secret level. information operations, targeting the
Prodded by intense congressional Internet Research Agency, a Russian
pressure and media scrutiny, Obama “troll farm,” and may have prevented
confronted Chinese President Xi the group from interfering in the 2018
Jinping during a September 2015 congressional midterm elections. These
meeting at the White House. Obama moves demonstrated the effectiveness
offered to not publicly attribute the of low-level, proactive cyber-tactics
opm hack to China, and in exchange, and drove home the idea that when it
Xi agreed to stop intelligence opera- comes to cyberspace, deterrence need
tions against U.S. firms and to estab- not take place on the level of grand
lish a diplomatic working group to strategy: low-tech, low-risk, targeted
discuss issues related to cyberspace. operations can do the trick.
Immediately following the summit, the The Trump administration’s ap-
volume of Chinese intellectual prop- proach to Russia’s cyber-campaigns was
erty theft plummeted, and Beijing and by no means an unqualified success,
Washington held a round of talks about however, owing to the behavior of the
cybertheft. This positive outcome president himself. Trump’s bizarre
clearly demonstrated the importance of genuflection toward Putin undermined
challenging China—but it also served any coherent strategy against Russia,
as a reminder that the administration and Trump’s unwillingness to stand up
had waited far too long to take action. for U.S. interests vis-à-vis Russia posed
U.S. President Donald Trump took a genuine threat to American democ-
office in 2017 with a more assertive, racy. From his public invitation to the
combative tone than that of his prede- Russians to hack his 2016 opponent,
cessor. His administration’s approach to Hillary Clinton, to his endorsement of
U.S. rivals was inconsistent and unpre- Putin’s nonsensical proposal to create a
dictable, but in 2018, the White House joint U.S.-Russian “impenetrable
approved the elevation of Cyber cybersecurity unit,” Trump repeatedly
Command to full combatant command undermined the efforts of his own
status, which freed the organization country’s law enforcement agencies,
from the constraints of working intelligence organizations, and military
through U.S. Strategic Command. to protect U.S. national security.
OWN GOALS Things got worse a few years later

But Trump is hardly the only American when the nsa lost control of some of
who has damaged U.S. cybersecurity in its most sensitive hacking tools. In
recent years. In 2013, an nsa contractor, two separate incidents, employees of
Edward Snowden, perpetrated one of an nsa unit that was then known as
the most significant leaks in U.S. the Office of Tailored Access Opera-
history when he provided journalists— tions—an outfit that conducts the
and, according to some accounts, agency’s most sensitive cybersurveil-
Chinese and Russian intelligence lance operations—removed extremely
services—with thousands of highly powerful tools from top-secret nsa
classified documents revealing the networks and, incredibly, took them
expansive reach of the nsa’s global home. Eventually, the Shadow Bro-
operations, including its eavesdropping kers—a mysterious hacking group
on senior government officials of with ties to Russian intelligence
countries allied with the United States. services—got their hands on some of
It is difficult to overstate the negative the nsa tools and released them on
impact these disclosures had on U.S. the Internet. As one former tao
efforts to secure cyberspace. Washing- employee told The Washington Post,
ton essentially lost all credibility on the these were “the keys to the king-
world stage when it came to issues dom”—digital tools that would “un-
regarding cyberspace. After learning dermine the security of a lot of major
that the nsa had spied on heads of government and corporate networks
state, including German Chancellor both here and abroad.”
Angela Merkel, European governments One such tool, known as “Eternal-
were in no mood to work with Wash- Blue,” got into the wrong hands and has
ington against Chinese or Russian been used to unleash a scourge of
cyber-operations. “Trust needs to be ransomware attacks—in which hackers
rebuilt,” Merkel said at the time. paralyze computer systems until their
In the wake of the revelations, a wide demands are met—that will plague the
range of governments—from U.S. allies world for years to come. Two of the
in Europe to China—labeled Washing- most destructive cyberattacks in history
ton as the greatest threat to cybersecu- made use of tools that were based on
rity in the world. The fallout from EternalBlue: the so-called WannaCry
Snowden’s leaks also dealt a devastating attack, launched by North Korea in 2017,
blow to the cooperation between the which caused major disruptions at the
U.S. government and the private sector, British National Health Service for at
an essential aspect of defending U.S. least a week, and the NotPetya attack,
interests in cyberspace. Owing to a fear carried out that same year by Russian-
of bad publicity and the risk of losing backed operatives, which resulted in
business in China, U.S. technology com- more than $10 billion in damage to the
panies that had previously collaborated global economy and caused weeks of
on unclassified cybersecurity initiatives delays at the world’s largest shipping
with the federal government decided to company, Maersk. In the past few years,
completely halt such cooperation. ransomware attacks have struck hospi-

tals, schools, city governments, and has many more effective ways to contain
pipelines, driving home the severe and extinguish the flames.
nature of the cyberthreat. With that in mind, the first practical
step the administration should take is to
HOW TO DO BETTER prioritize the defense of data. Working
Washington’s decade spent in thrall to an with Congress, Biden must redouble
outmoded conception of cyberconflict, efforts to pass a national data security
the Obama administration’s excessive law that will provide citizens with the
passivity, the Trump administration’s right to take legal action against compa-
inconsistency, and the damage caused by nies that fail to protect their data, similar
leaks and sloppiness meant that when to the European Union’s General Data
U.S. President Joe Biden took office Protection Regulation. The United States
earlier this year, he inherited a mess. is one of the only major democracies in
Getting U.S. policy back on track will the world that does not have such a law.
require his administration to substan- As a result, an extraordinarily complex
tially change the way that Washington patchwork of state-level privacy and data
conceives of and carries out cybersecu- security laws have sprung up, inhibiting
rity. That will be particularly challenging the development of a secure information-
given the current security environment, based economy. The current effort on
which is being shaped by China’s rollout Capitol Hill to require companies that
of the “digital yuan,” the meteoric rise in provide critical infrastructure—including
the value and impact of cryptocurrencies, those in the manufacturing, energy
the flourishing of disinformation, and production, and financial services sec-
the sharp increase in ransomware attacks. tors—to notify federal authorities of data
Meanwhile, as nuclear negotiations with breaches represents a promising develop-
Iran intensify, the regime in Tehran will ment. But it is not nearly enough.
likely experiment with new cyber- and The administration should also make
information operations to gain leverage the rapid public attribution of cyberat-
at the negotiating table, and China and tacks a core component of its strategy,
Russia will almost certainly test the even in politically complex situations.
relatively new administration with The conventional wisdom used to hold
cyberattacks within the next year. that it was difficult to attribute cyberat-
In this climate, the most important tacks with a high level of confidence. But
thing the Biden administration can do over the past five years, advanced digital
is embrace the notion that countries forensics have allowed intelligence
that can conduct destructive cyberat- agencies and private-sector cybersecurity
tacks are not likely to be deterred by firms to conclude with reasonable
Washington’s own cyber-capabilities but certainty who is behind most cyberat-
can still be deterred by the United tacks. That evolution is important:
States’ conventional military power and attribution alone has proved to be an
economic might. When it comes to effective, if short-lived, way to deter
cyberspace, Washington shouldn’t try to U.S. rivals from carrying out attacks.
fight fire with fire—or at least not with Better U.S. policy will also require
fire alone. The United States, after all, some organizational shifts. For starters,
the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure should shape Cyber Command into

Security Agency, established in 2018 something more akin to today’s nimble,
within the Department of Homeland flexible Joint Special Operations
Security, must become the true center of Command and less like the lumbering
gravity for domestic cybersecurity Strategic Air Command of the 1950s.
operations; the final authority over such Cyber Command has relied too much
operations should not be granted to on the nsa to create unique, nonattrib-
intelligence organizations, law enforce- utable cybertools, which can take years
ment agencies, or the military. In the to develop; to increase its agility,
past three years, cisa has developed Cyber Command should turn to less
important capabilities to combat election complex, “burnable” tools, that is, ones
interference and disinformation cam- that are expendable because they are
paigns. Now, it must improve its defense already publicly available, which means
of federal government networks, speed there is no need to conceal their origin.
the sharing of threat indicators with the The Trump administration, to its
private sector, and offer expertise and credit, upped Washington’s game by
operational support to the providers of increasing the frequency of low-tech,
critical infrastructure that face threats publicly attributable offensive cyber-
from ransomware. To do all that, cisa operations. This had the effect of
will need more funding: the organization’s bolstering U.S. credibility in the
current annual budget of $3 billion should cyber-realm—even in the face of
be tripled over the next four years, and it Trump’s erratic personal conduct. For
should eventually equal that of the nsa. example, after Iran’s elite Islamic
Law enforcement still has an impor- Revolutionary Guard Corps shot down
tant role to play, particularly when it a U.S. surveillance drone in 2019,
comes to domestic defensive cyber Cyber Command conducted a retalia-
operations to thwart ransomware attacks. tory attack on a database crucial to the
The fbi recently undertook an effective group. The strike demonstrated Wash-
and creative effort to remove malicious ington’s ability to achieve strategic
tools implanted by Chinese intelligence goals while avoiding escalatory tactics.
services in hundreds of servers across the New legislation and new approaches
United States. In a novel and precedent- would go a long way toward fixing
setting step, the bureau obtained Washington’s flawed cyberstrategy. But
warrants to unilaterally identify and the government cannot improve U.S.
delete the Chinese malware without the cybersecurity on its own: it must mean-
consent of the equipment’s owners. The ingfully engage with the private sector
legal authority for that operation was to build cyberdefenses and cyber-
established by an update to the Federal deterrence. Companies are in the cross
Rules of Criminal Procedure; the admin- hairs of hackers of many stripes, and
istration should seek additional innova- corporate leaders have become de facto
tive updates to laws that will allow the national security decision-makers. To
fbi to take more proactive measures. create shared norms and encourage the
The U.S. military must also con- independent enforcement of cyber
tinue to adapt to the cyber-era. Biden protection standards, at least by publicly

traded companies, Congress should administration to improve the interdic-

consider creating a cybersecurity analog tion of weapons of mass destruction.
to the Securities and Exchange Com- If American policymakers have
mission, which protects the integrity of learned anything in the past decade, it is
markets, and a version for cyberspace of that cyberconflict is a murky business,
the Generally Accepted Accounting one that resists black-and-white notions
Principles, which shape the public about war and peace. That lack of clarity
disclosures that companies must make. in the battle space makes it all the more
Even if Washington does everything important for Washington to be clear
right, it will still need global coopera- about its goals and strategies. The
tion. Luckily, the geopolitical environ- cyber-realm will always be messy. But
ment today is conducive to strong U.S. U.S. cyber-policy does not have to be.∂
diplomatic leadership on issues regard-
ing cyberspace. Washington has
mostly recovered from the fallout of
the Snowden and the NSA leaks, and the
world has finally recognized that the
Chinese and Russian models of Internet
autocracy are antithetical to a liberal
order and a globalized economy. Wash-
ington needs to take advantage of this
state of affairs through intensive coop-
eration with like-minded countries, such
as France, Germany, Japan, South
Korea, and the United Kingdom.
The un is not the place to do so,
however: in that forum, China and Russia
can advance their interests by entangling
Washington and its partners in abstract
debates about norms even as they wan-
tonly violate those norms in the real
world. Many strategists have suggested
that nato could serve as the center of
gravity for cooperation in cyberspace
between the United States and its allies
and partners, but the organization was
built for the Cold War and is too clunky
to foster creative strategies. Instead,
Washington should pursue a series of
bilateral agreements to prevent the
spread of black-market ransomware tools.
One model might be the Proliferation
Security Initiative, a multilateral effort
inaugurated by the George W. Bush
REDESIGNING
GLOBALIZATION
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space have garnered peta-, exa-, even
A World zettabytes of sensitive and proprietary
DIGITAL DISORDER
data. Cyber-enabled information opera-

Without Trust tions have threatened elections and
incited mass social movements. Cyberat-
tacks on businesses have cost hundreds
The Insidious Cyberthreat of billions of dollars. But while the
cyberthreat is real and growing, expecta-
Jacquelyn Schneider tions that cyberattacks would create
large-scale physical effects akin to those
caused by surprise bombings on U.S.
W
hen sounding the alarm over soil, or that they would hurtle states into
cyberthreats, policymakers violent conflict, or even that what
and analysts have typically happened in the domain of cyberspace
employed a vocabulary of conflict and would define who won or lost on the
catastrophe. As early as 2001, James battlefield haven’t been borne out. In
Adams, a co-founder of the cybersecu- trying to analogize the cyberthreat to the
rity firm iDefense, warned in these world of physical warfare, policymakers
pages that cyberspace was “a new inter- missed the far more insidious danger
national battlefield,” where future that cyber-operations pose: how they
military campaigns would be won or erode the trust people place in markets,
lost. In subsequent years, U.S. defense governments, and even national power.
officials warned of a “cyber–Pearl Correctly diagnosing the threat is
Harbor,” in the words of then Defense essential, in part because it shapes how
Secretary Leon Panetta, and a “cyber states invest in cybersecurity. Focusing on
9/11,” according to then Homeland single, potentially catastrophic events,
Security Secretary Janet Napolitano. In and thinking mostly about the possible
2015, James Clapper, then the director of physical effects of cyberattacks, unduly
national intelligence, said the United prioritizes capabilities that will protect
States must prepare for a “cyber Arma- against “the big one”: large-scale re-
geddon” but acknowledged it was not the sponses to disastrous cyberattacks,
most likely scenario. In response to the offensive measures that produce physical
threat, officials argued that cyberspace violence, or punishments only for the
should be understood as a “domain” of kinds of attacks that cross a strategic
conflict, with “key terrain” that the threshold. Such capabilities and responses
United States needed to take or defend. are mostly ineffective at protecting against
The 20 years since Adams’s warning the way cyberattacks undermine the trust
have revealed that cyberthreats and that undergirds modern economies,
cyberattacks are hugely consequential— societies, governments, and militaries.
but not in the way most predictions If trust is what’s at stake—and it has
suggested. Spying and theft in cyber- already been deeply eroded—then the
steps states must take to survive and
JACQUELYN SCHNEIDER is a Hoover Fellow operate in this new world are different.
at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. The solution to a “cyber–Pearl Harbor”
Jacquelyn Schneider
is to do everything possible to ensure it international system. It allows individu-

doesn’t happen, but the way to retain als, organizations, and states to delegate
trust in a digital world despite the tasks or responsibilities, thereby freeing
inevitability of cyberattacks is to build up time and resources to accomplish
resilience and thereby promote confi- other jobs, or to cooperate instead of
dence in today’s systems of commerce, acting alone. It is the glue that allows
governance, military power, and interna- complex relationships to survive—per-
tional cooperation. States can develop mitting markets to become more com-
this resilience by restoring links be- plex, governance to extend over a broader
tween humans and within networks, by population or set of issues, and states to
strategically distributing analog systems trade, cooperate, and exist within more
where needed, and by investing in complicated alliance relationships.
processes that allow for manual and “Extensions of trust . . . enable coordina-
human intervention. The key to success tion of actions over large domains of
in cyberspace over the long term is not space and time, which in turn permits the
finding a way to defeat all cyberattacks benefits of more complex, differentiated,
but learning how to survive despite the and diverse societies,” explains the
disruption and destruction they cause. political scientist Mark Warren.
The United States has not so far Those extensions of trust have played
experienced a “cyber 9/11,” and a cyber- an essential role in human progress
attack that causes immediate cata- across all dimensions. Primitive, iso-
strophic physical effects isn’t likely in lated, and autocratic societies function
the future, either. But Americans’ trust with what sociologists call “particular-
in their government, their institutions, ized trust”—a trust of only known
and even their fellow citizens is declin- others. Modern and interconnected
ing rapidly—weakening the very foun- states require what’s called “generalized
dations of society. Cyberattacks prey on trust,” which extends beyond known
these weak points, sowing distrust in circles and allows actors to delegate
information, creating confusion and trust relationships to individuals,
anxiety, and exacerbating hatred and organizations, and processes with whom
misinformation. As people’s digital the truster is not intimately familiar.
dependencies grow and the links among Particularized trust leads to allegiance
technologies, people, and institutions within small groups, distrust of others,
become more tenuous, this cyberthreat and wariness of unfamiliar processes or
to trust will only become more existen- institutions; generalized trust enables
tial. It is this creeping dystopian future complicated market interactions, com-
that policymakers should worry about— munity involvement, and trade and
and do everything possible to avert. cooperation among states.
The modern market, for example,
THE TIES THAT BIND could not exist without the trust that
Trust, defined as “the firm belief in the allows for the delegation of responsibil-
reliability, truth, ability, or strength of ity to another entity. People trust that
someone or something,” plays a central currencies have value, that banks can
role in economies, societies, and the secure and safeguard assets, and that
A World Without Trust
IOUs in the form of checks, credit cards, regime’s willingness to give control to
or loans will be fulfilled. When individu- lower levels of military units in war-
als and entities have trust in a financial fare. For example, the political scientist
system, wages, profits, and employment Caitlin Talmadge notes how Saddam
increase. Trust in laws about property Hussein’s efforts to coup-proof his
rights facilitates trade and economic military through the frequent cycling
prosperity. The digital economy makes of officers through assignments, the
this generalized trust even more impor- restriction of foreign travel and train-
tant. No longer do people deposit gold ing, and perverse regime loyalty pro-
in a bank vault. Instead, modern econo- motion incentives handicapped the
mies consist of complicated sets of otherwise well-equipped Iraqi military.
digital transactions in which users must Trust also enables militaries to experi-
trust not only that banks are securing ment and train with new technologies,
and safeguarding their assets but also making them more likely to innovate
that the digital medium—a series of ones and develop revolutionary advance-
and zeros linked together in code— ments in military power.
translates to an actual value that can be Trust also dictates the stability of the
used to buy goods and services. international system. States rely on it to
Trust is a basic ingredient of social build trade and arms control agreements
capital—the shared norms and intercon- and, most important, to feel confident
nected networks that, as the political that other states will not launch a
scientist Robert Putnam has famously surprise attack or invasion. It enables
argued, lead to more peaceful and international cooperation and thwarts
prosperous communities. The general- arms races by creating the conditions to
ized trust at the heart of social capital share information—thus defeating the
allows voters to delegate responsibility to suboptimal outcome of a prisoner’s
proxies and institutions to represent their dilemma, wherein states choose conflict
interests. Voters must trust that a repre- because they are unable to share the
sentative will promote their interests, information required for cooperation.
that votes will be logged and counted The Russian proverb “Doveryai, no
properly, and that the institutions that proveryai”—“Trust, but verify”—has
write and uphold laws will do so fairly. guided arms control negotiations and
Finally, trust is at the heart of how agreements since the Cold War.
states generate national power and, In short, the world today is more
ultimately, how they interact within the dependent on trust than ever before.
international system. It allows civilian This is, in large part, because of the way
heads of state to delegate command of information and digital technologies have
armed forces to military leaders and proliferated across modern economies,
enables those military leaders to societies, governments, and militaries,
execute decentralized control of lower- their virtual nature amplifying the role
level military operations and tactics. that trust plays in daily activities. This
States characterized by civil-military occurs in a few ways. First, the rise of
distrust are less likely to win wars, automation and autonomous technolo-
partly because of how trust affects a gies—whether in traffic systems, finan-

Jacquelyn Schneider
cial markets, health care, or military Additionally, operating in a digital

weapons—necessitates a delegation of world can produce distrust in owner-
trust whereby the user is trusting that the ship or control of information: Are your
machine can accomplish a task safely and photos private? Is your company’s
appropriately. Second, digital informa- intellectual property secure? Did
tion requires the user to trust that data government secrets about nuclear
are stored in the right place, that their weapons make it into an adversary’s
values are what the user believes them to hands? Finally, cyber-operations create
be, and that the data won’t be manipu- distrust by manipulating social net-
lated. Additionally, digital social media works and relationships and ultimately
platforms create new trust dynamics deteriorating social capital. Online
around identity, privacy, and validity. personas, bots, and disinformation
How do you trust the creators of infor- campaigns all complicate whether
mation or that your social interactions individuals can trust both information
are with an actual person? How do you and one another. All these cyberthreats
trust that the information you provide have implications that can erode the
others will be kept private? These are foundations on which markets, socie
relatively complex relationships with ties, governments, and the international
trust, all the result of users’ dependence system were built.
on digital technologies and information The digitally dependent economy is
in the modern world. particularly vulnerable to degradations of
trust. As the modern market has become
SUSPICION SPREADS more interconnected online, cyberthreats
All the trust that is needed to carry out have grown more sophisticated and
these online interactions and exchanges ubiquitous. Yearly estimates of the total
creates an enormous target. In the most economic cost of cyberattacks range
dramatic way, cyber-operations generate from hundreds of billions to trillions of
distrust in how or whether a system dollars. But it isn’t the financial cost of
operates. For instance, an exploit, which these attacks alone that threatens the
is a cyberattack that takes advantage of modern economy. Instead, it is how
a security flaw in a computer system, these persistent attacks create distrust in
can hack and control a pacemaker, the integrity of the system as a whole.
causing distrust on the part of the Nowhere was this more evident than
patient using the device. Or a micro- in the public’s response to the ransom-
chip backdoor can allow bad actors to ware attack on the American oil pro-
access smart weapons, sowing distrust vider Colonial Pipeline. In May 2021, a
about who is in control of those weap- criminal gang known as DarkSide shut
ons. Cyber-operations can lead to down the pipeline, which provides about
distrust in the integrity of data or the 45 percent of the fuel to the East Coast
algorithms that make sense of data. Are of the United States, and demanded a
voter logs accurate? Is that artificial- ransom, which the company ultimately
intelligence-enabled strategic warning paid. Despite the limited impact of the
system showing a real missile launch, or attack on the company’s ability to
is it a blip in the computer code? provide oil to its customers, people
panicked and flocked to gas stations with all become ransomware targets—
oil tanks and plastic bags to stock up on whereby systems are taken offline or
gas, leading to an artificial shortage at rendered useless until the victim pays
the pump. This kind of distrust, and the up. In the cross hairs are virtual class-
chaos it causes, threatens the founda- rooms, access to judicial records, and
tions not just of the digital economy but local emergency services. And while the
also of the entire economy. immediate impact of these attacks can
The inability to safeguard intellectual temporarily degrade some governance
property from cybertheft is similarly and social functions, the greater danger
consequential. The practice of stealing is that over the long term, a lack of faith
intellectual property or trade secrets by in the integrity of data stored by gov-
hacking into a company’s network and ernments—whether marriage records,
taking sensitive data has become a birth certificates, criminal records, or
lucrative criminal enterprise—one that property divisions—can erode trust in
states including China and North Korea the basic functions of a society. Democ-
use to catch up with the United States racy’s reliance on information and social
and other countries that have the most capital to build trust in institutions has
innovative technology. North Korea proved remarkably vulnerable to cyber-
famously hacked the pharmaceutical enabled information operations. State-
company Pfizer in an attempt to steal its sponsored campaigns that provoke
COVID-19 vaccine technology, and questions about the integrity of gover-
Chinese exfiltrations of U.S. defense nance data (such as vote tallies) or that
industrial base research has led to fracture communities into small groups
copycat technological advances in of particularized trust give rise to the
aircraft and missile development. The kind of forces that foment civil unrest
more extensive and sophisticated such and threaten democracy.
attacks become, the less companies can Cyber-operations can also jeopardize
trust that their investments in research military power, by attacking trust in
and development will lead to profit—ul- modern weapons. With the rise of
timately destroying knowledge-based digital capabilities, starting with the
economies. And nowhere are the threats microprocessor, states began to rely on
to trust more existential than in online smart weapons, networked sensors, and
banking. If users no longer trust that autonomous platforms for their militar-
their digital data and their money can ies. As those militaries became more
be safeguarded, then the entire compli- digitally capable, they also became
cated modern financial system could susceptible to cyber-operations that
collapse. Perversely, the turn toward threatened the reliability and functional-
cryptocurrencies, most of which are not ity of these smart weapons systems.
backed by government guarantees, Whereas a previous focus on cyber-
makes trust in the value of digital threats fixated on how cyber-operations
information all the more critical. could act like a bomb, the true danger
Societies and governments are also occurs when cyberattacks make it
vulnerable to attacks on trust. Schools, difficult to trust that actual bombs will
courts, and municipal governments have work as expected. As militaries move

Jacquelyn Schneider
farther away from the battlefield cyberspace makes attribution and

through remote operations and com- determining intent harder, further
manders delegate responsibility to threatening trust and cooperation in the
autonomous systems, this trust becomes international system. For example,
all the more important. Can militaries Israeli spyware aiding Saudi govern-
have faith that cyberattacks on autono- ment efforts to repress dissent, off-duty
mous systems will not render them Chinese military hacktivists, criminal
ineffective or, worse, cause fratricide or organizations the Russian state allows
kill civilians? Furthermore, for highly but does not officially sponsor—all
networked militaries (such as that of the make it difficult to establish a clear
United States), lessons taken from the chain of attribution for an intentional
early information age led to doctrines, state action. Such intermediaries also
campaigns, and weapons that rely on threaten the usefulness of official
complex distributions of information. agreements among states about what is
Absent trust in information or the appropriate behavior in cyberspace.
means by which it is being disseminated,
militaries will be stymied—awaiting new LIVING WITH FAILURE
orders, unsure of how to proceed. To date, U.S. solutions to dangers in
Together, these factors threaten the cyberspace have focused on the cyber-
fragile systems of trust that facilitate space part of the question—deterring,
peace and stability within the interna- defending against, and defeating cyber-
tional system. They make trade less threats as they attack their targets. But
likely, arms control more difficult, and these cyber-focused strategies have
states more uncertain about one anoth- struggled and even failed: cyberattacks
er’s intentions. The introduction of are on the rise, the efficacy of deterrence
cybertools for spying, attacks, and theft is questionable, and offensive ap-
has only exacerbated the effects of proaches cannot stem the tide of small-
distrust. Offensive cyber-capabilities scale attacks that threaten the world’s
are difficult to monitor, and the lack of modern, digital foundations. Massive
norms about the appropriate uses of exploits—such as the recent hacks of
cyber-operations makes it difficult for SolarWinds’ network management
states to trust that others will use software and Microsoft Exchange
restraint. Are Russian hackers exploring Server’s email software—are less a
U.S. power networks to launch an failure of U.S. cyberdefenses than a
imminent cyberattack, or are they symptom of how the targeted systems
merely probing for vulnerabilities, with were conceived and constructed in the
no future plans to use them? Are U.S. first place. The goal should be not to
“defend forward” cyber-operations truly stop all cyber-intrusions but to build
to prevent attacks on U.S. networks or systems that are able to withstand
instead a guise to justify offensive incoming attacks. This is not a new
cyberattacks on Chinese or Russian lesson. When cannons and gunpowder
command-and-control systems? Mean- debuted in Europe in the fourteenth
while, the use of mercenaries, interme- and fifteenth centuries, cities struggled
diaries, and gray-zone operations in to survive the onslaught of the new
firepower. So states adapted their economy, critical infrastructure, and

fortifications—dug ditches, built bas- military power must prioritize resil-
tions, organized cavaliers, constructed ience. This requires decentralized and
extensive polygonal edifices—all with dense networks, hybrid cloud struc-
the idea of creating cities that could tures, redundant applications, and
survive a siege, not stop the cannon fire backup processes. It implies planning
from ever occurring. The best fortifica- and training for network failure so that
tions were designed to enable active individuals can adapt and continue to
defense, wearing the attackers down provide services even in the midst of an
until a counterattack could defeat the offensive cyber-campaign. It means
forces remaining outside the city. relying on physical backups for the
The fortification analogy invites an most important data (such as votes) and
alternative cyberstrategy in which the manual options for operating systems
focus is on the system itself—whether when digital capabilities are unavail-
that’s a smart weapon, an electric grid, able. For some highly sensitive systems
or the mind of an American voter. How (for instance, nuclear command and
does one build systems that can con- control), it may be that analog options,
tinue to operate in a world of degraded even when less efficient, produce
trust? Here, network theory—the study remarkable resilience. Users need to
of how networks succeed, fail, and trust that digital capabilities and net-
survive—offers guidance. Studies on works have been designed to gracefully
network robustness find that the degrade, as opposed to catastrophically
strongest networks are those with a fail: the distinction between binary
high density of small nodes and mul- trust (that is, trusting the system will
tiple pathways between nodes. Highly work perfectly or not trusting the
resilient networks can withstand the system at all) and a continuum of trust
removal of multiple nodes and linkages (trusting the system to function at some
without decomposing, whereas less percentage between zero and 100
resilient, centralized networks, with few percent) should drive the design of
pathways and sparser nodes, have a digital capabilities and networks. These
much lower critical threshold for design choices will not only increase
degradation and failure. If economies, users’ trust but also decrease the incen-
societies, governments, and the interna- tives for criminal and state-based actors
tional system are going to survive to launch cyberattacks.
serious erosions of trust, they will need Making critical infrastructure and
more bonds and links, fewer dependen- military power more resilient to cyber-
cies on central nodes, and new ways to attacks would have positive effects on
reconstitute network components even international stability. More resilient
as they are under attack. Together, these infrastructure and populations are less
qualities will lead to generalized trust in susceptible to systemic and long-lasting
the integrity of the systems. How can effects from cyberattacks because they
states build such networks? can bounce back quickly. This resilience,
First, at the technical level, networks in turn, decreases the incentives for
and data structures that undergird the states to preemptively strike an adver-

Jacquelyn Schneider
sary online, since they would question and out-group divisions. Algorithms and
the efficacy of their cyberattacks and clickbait designed to promote outrage
their ability to coerce the target popula- only galvanize these divisions and
tion. Faced with a difficult, costly, and decrease trust of those outside the group.
potentially ineffective attack, aggressors Governments can try to regulate
are less likely to see the benefits of these forces on social media, but those
chancing the cyberattack in the first virtual enclaves reflect actual divisions
place. Furthermore, states that focus on within society. And there’s a feedback
building resilience and perseverance in loop: the distrust that is building
their digitally enabled military forces online leaks out into the real world,
are less likely to double down on separating people further into groups
first-strike or offensive operations, such of “us” and “them.” Combating this
as long-range missile strikes or cam- requires education and civic engage-
paigns of preemption. The security ment—the bowling leagues that Put-
dilemma—when states that would nam said were necessary to rebuild
otherwise not go to war with each other Americans’ social capital (Putnam’s
find themselves in conflict because they book Bowling Alone, coincidentally,
are uncertain about each other’s inten- came out in 2000, just as the Internet
tions—suggests that when states focus was beginning to take off). After two
more on defense than offense, they are years of a global pandemic and a
less likely to spiral into conflicts caused further splintering of Americans into
by distrust and uncertainty. virtual enclaves, it is time to reenergize
physical communities, time for neigh-
HUMAN RESOURCES borhoods, school districts, and towns to
Solving the technical side, however, is come together to rebuild the links and
only part of the solution. The most bonds that were severed to save lives
important trust relationships that during the pandemic. The fact is that
cyberspace threatens are society’s human these divisions were festering in
networks—that is, the bonds and links American communities even before the
that people have as individuals, neigh- pandemic or the Internet accelerated
bors, and citizens so that they can work their consolidation and amplified their
together to solve problems. Solutions for power. The solution, therefore, the way
making these human networks more to do this kind of rebuilding, will not
durable are even more complicated and come from social media, the CEOs of
difficult than any technical fixes. Cyber- those platforms, or digital tools. In-
enabled information operations target stead, it will take courageous local
the links that build trust between people leaders who can rebuild trust from the
and communities. They undermine these ground up, finding ways to bring
broader connections by creating incen- together communities that have been
tives to form clustered networks of driven apart. It will take more frequent
particularized trust—for example, social disconnecting from the Internet, and
media platforms that organize groups of from the synthetic groups of particular-
like-minded individuals or disinforma- ized trust that were formed there, in
tion campaigns that promote in-group order to reconnect in person. Civic
education could help by reminding ance over convenience or deterring and

communities of their commonalities defeating cyberthreats. And the initial
and shared goals and by creating cost of these measures to foster trust
critical thinkers who can work for falls disproportionately on democracies,
change within democratic institutions. which must cultivate generalized trust,
as opposed to the particularized trust
BOWLING TOGETHER that autocracies rely on for power. This
There’s a saying that cyber-operations can seem like a tough pill to swallow,
lead to death by a thousand cuts, but especially as China and the United
perhaps a better analogy is termites, States appear to be racing toward an
hidden in the recesses of foundations, increasingly competitive relationship.
that gradually eat away at the very Despite the difficulties and the cost,
structures designed to support people’s democracies and modern economies
lives. The previous strategic focus on (such as the United States) must
one-off, large-scale cyber-operations led prioritize building trust in the systems
to bigger and better cyber-capabilities, that make societies run—whether that’s
but it never addressed the fragility within the electric grid, banks, schools, voting
the foundations and networks themselves. machines, or the media. That means
Will cyberattacks ever cause the kind creating backup plans and fail-safes,
of serious physical effects that were making strategic decisions about what
feared over the last two decades? Will a should be online or digital and what
strategy focused more on trust and needs to stay analog or physical, and
resilience leave states uniquely vulner- building networks—both online and in
able to this? It is of course impossible to society—that can survive even when
say that no cyberattack will ever pro- one node is attacked. If a stolen pass-
duce large-scale physical effects similar word can still take out an oil pipeline or
to those that resulted from the bombing a fake social media account can con-
of Pearl Harbor. But it is unlikely—be- tinue to sway the political opinions of
cause the nature of cyberspace, its thousands of voters, then cyberattacks
virtual, transient, and ever-changing will remain too lucrative for autocracies
character, makes it difficult for attacks and criminal actors to resist. Failing to
on it to create lasting physical effects. build in more resilience—both technical
Strategies that focus on trust and and human—will mean that the cycle of
resilience by investing in networks and cyberattacks and the distrust they give
relationships make these kinds of rise to will continue to threaten the
attacks yet more difficult. Therefore, foundations of democratic society.∂
focusing on building networks that can
survive incessant, smaller attacks has a
fortuitous byproduct: additional resil-
ience against one-off, large-scale at-
tacks. But this isn’t easy, and there is a
significant tradeoff in both efficiency
and cost for strategies that focus on
resilience, redundancy, and persever-

the first time endorsed a set of 11 volun-
The End of
DIGITAL DISORDER
tary, nonbinding international cyber-

norms. Russia had helped craft these
Cyber-Anarchy? norms and later signed off on their
publication. That same month, it
conducted a cyberattack against
How to Build a New Ukraine’s power grid, leaving roughly
Digital Order 225,000 people without electricity for
several hours, and was also ramping up
Joseph S. Nye, Jr. its efforts to interfere in the 2016 U.S.
presidential election. For skeptics, this
served as yet further evidence that
R
ansomware attacks, election establishing norms for responsible state
interference, corporate espio- behavior in cyberspace is a pipe dream.
nage, threats to the electric grid: Yet that skepticism reveals a misun-
based on the drumbeat of current derstanding about how norms work and
headlines, there seems to be little hope are strengthened over time. Violations,
of bringing a measure of order to the if not addressed, can weaken norms, but
anarchy of cyberspace. The relentless they do not render them irrelevant.
bad news stories paint a picture of an Norms create expectations about
ungoverned online world that is grow- behavior that make it possible to hold
ing more dangerous by the day—with other states accountable. Norms also
grim implications not just for cyber- help legitimize official actions and help
space itself but also for economies, states recruit allies when they decide to
geopolitics, democratic societies, and respond to a violation. And norms don’t
basic questions of war and peace. appear suddenly or start working
Given this distressing reality, any overnight. History shows that societies
suggestion that it is possible to craft take time to learn how to respond to
rules of the road in cyberspace tends to major disruptive technological changes
be met with skepticism: core attributes and to put in place rules that make the
of cyberspace, the thinking goes, make world safer from new dangers. It took
it all but impossible to enforce any two decades after the United States
norms or even to know whether they dropped nuclear bombs on Japan for
are being violated in the first place. countries to reach agreement on the
States that declare their support for Limited Test Ban Treaty and the
cybernorms simultaneously conduct Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
large-scale cyber-operations against Although cybertechnology presents
their adversaries. In December 2015, for unique challenges, international norms to
example, the UN General Assembly for govern its use appear to be developing in
the usual way: slowly but steadily, over
JOSEPH S. NYE, JR., is University Distin- the course of decades. As they take hold,
guished Service Professor Emeritus at and such norms will be increasingly critical to
former Dean of the Harvard Kennedy School. He
is the author of Do Morals Matter? Presidents reducing the risk that cybertechnology
and Foreign Policy From FDR to Trump. advances could pose to the international
Joseph S. Nye, Jr.
order, especially if Washington and its In the realm of global military

conflict, computer networks have
allies and partners reinforce those norms
with other methods of deterrence. become a fifth domain, in addition to
Although some analysts argue that the traditional four of land, sea, air, and
deterrence does not work in cyberspace, space, and the U.S. military recognized
this with the creation of U.S. Cyber
that conclusion is simplistic: it works in
Command in 2010. Among the special
different ways than in the nuclear domain.
And alternative strategies have proved characteristics of the new cyber-domain
equally or more deficient. As targets are the erosion of distance (oceans no
longer provide protection), the speed of
continue to proliferate, the United States
must pursue a strategy that combines interaction (much faster than rockets in
deterrence and diplomacy to strengthen space), the low cost (which reduces
the guardrails in this new and dangerousbarriers to entry), and the difficulty of
world. The record of establishing norms attribution (which promotes deniability
in other areas offers a useful place to and slows responses). Still, skeptics
start—and should dispel the notion that sometimes describe cyberattacks as
this issue and this time are different. more of a nuisance than a major strate-
gic problem. They argue that the
A NEW FACT OF LIFE (AND WAR) cyber-domain is ideal for espionage and
As cyberattacks become more costly, other forms of covert action and disrup-
U.S. strategy to defend against them tion but that it remains far less impor-
remains inadequate. A good strategy tant than the traditional domains of
has to begin at home but simultaneously warfare; no one has died because of a
recognize the inseparability of cyber- cyberattack. That, however, is becoming
space’s domestic and international an increasingly difficult position to take.
aspects—the domain of cyberspace is The 2017 WannaCry ransomware attack
inherently transnational. Furthermore, damaged the British National Health
cybersecurity involves a blurring of Service by leaving computers encrypted
public and private vulnerabilities. The and unusable, forcing thousands of
Internet is a network of networks, most patients’ appointments to be canceled,
of which are privately owned. Unlike and hospitals and vaccine producers
nuclear or conventional weapons, the have been directly targeted by ransom-
government does not control them. ware attacks and hackers during the
Accordingly, companies make their own COVID-19 pandemic.
tradeoffs between investing in security What’s more, there remains much
and maximizing short-term profit. Yet that even experts do not understand
inadequate corporate defense can have about how the use of cybertools could
huge external costs for national secu- escalate to physical conflict. Consider,
rity: witness the recent Russian cyber- for example, the fact that the U.S.
attack on SolarWinds software, which military depends heavily on civilian
allowed access to computers across the infrastructure and that cyber-penetrations
U.S. government and the private sector. could seriously degrade U.S. defen-
And unlike with military security, the sive capabilities in a crisis situation.
Pentagon plays only a partial role. And in economic terms, the scale and
The End of Cyber-Anarchy?
cost of cyber-incidents have been cyberattacks with weapons of its choice

increasing. According to some estimates, and with force proportional to the harm
the Russian-sponsored 2017 NotPetya inflicted on its interests. Despite a
attack on Ukraine, which wiped data decade of warnings, thus far, a “cyber–
from the computers of banks, power Pearl Harbor” has not happened.
companies, gas stations, and govern- Whether the United States treats a
ment agencies, cost companies more cyberattack as an armed attack depends
than $10 billion in collateral damage. on its consequences, but this makes it
The number of targets is also expanding difficult to deter actions that are more
rapidly. With the rise of big data, ambiguous. Russia’s disruption of the
artificial intelligence, advanced robotics, 2016 U.S. presidential election fell into
and the Internet of Things, experts such a gray area. And although some
estimate that the number of Internet recent Chinese and Russian cyberattacks
connections will approach a trillion by appear to have been conducted primarily
2030. The world has experienced for the purposes of espionage, the Biden
cyberattacks since the 1980s, but the administration has complained that their
attack surface has expanded dramati- scale and duration moved them beyond
cally; it now includes everything from normal spying. This is why deterrence in
industrial control systems to automo- cyberspace requires not just the threat of
biles to personal digital assistants. punishment but also denial by defense
It is clear that the threat is mounting. (building systems resilient enough and
Less clear is how U.S. strategy can hard enough to break into that would-be
adapt to face it. Deterrence must be attackers won’t bother to try) and
part of the approach, but cyber-deterrence entanglement (creating links to potential
will look different from the more adversaries so that any attack they
traditional and familiar forms of nuclear launch will likely harm their own
deterrence that Washington has prac- interests, too). Each of these approaches
ticed for decades. A nuclear attack is a has limits when used on its own. En-
singular event, and the goal of nuclear tanglement has more of an effect when
deterrence is to prevent its occurrence. used against China, because of a high
In contrast, cyberattacks are numerous degree of economic interdependence,
and constant, and deterring them is than it does against North Korea, with
more like deterring ordinary crime: the whom there is none. Denial by defense
goal is to keep it within limits. Authori- is effective in deterring nonstate actors
ties deter crime not only by arresting and second-tier states but less likely to
and punishing people but also through prevent attacks by more powerful and
the educational effect of laws and proficient actors. But the combination of
norms, by patrolling neighborhoods, a threat of punishment and an effective
and through community policing. defense can influence these powers’
Deterring crime does not require the calculations of costs and benefits.
threat of a mushroom cloud. In addition to improving the defense
Still, punishment plays a large role in of networks inside the United States, in
cyber-deterrence. The U.S. government recent years, Washington has adopted
has publicly stated that it will respond to doctrines that U.S. Cyber Command

Joseph S. Nye, Jr.
has dubbed “defend forward” and because whether a line of code is a

“persistent engagement”—simply put, weapon or not can depend on the intent
small-scale acts of cyberoffense, such as of the user. Instead, the United States
the disruption, diversion, or takedown agreed that the UN secretary-general
of a network. Some press accounts should appoint a group of 15 (later
credit these practices with reducing expanded to 25) government experts to
Russian interference in the 2018 and develop a set of rules of the road; they
2020 U.S. elections. But entering and first met in 2004.
disrupting an adversary’s network poses Six such groups have convened since
some danger of escalation and must be then, and they have issued four reports,
carefully managed. creating a broad framework of norms
that was later endorsed by the UN
SETTING SOME RULES General Assembly. The groups’ work
Despite its defensive and offensive has strengthened the consensus that
capabilities, the United States remains international law applies to the domain
highly vulnerable to cyberattacks and of cyberspace and is essential for
influence operations, owing to its free maintaining peace and stability in it. In
markets and open society. “I think it’s a addition to grappling with complicated
good idea to at least think about the old questions of international law, the
saw about [how] people who live in glass report that was issued in 2015 intro-
houses shouldn’t throw rocks,” remarked duced 11 voluntary, nonbinding norms,
James Clapper, then the director of the most important ones being a man-
national intelligence, during 2015 date to provide states with assistance
congressional testimony on Washing- when requested and prohibitions against
ton’s responses to cyberattacks. Clapper attacking civilian infrastructure, inter-
was stressing, rightly, that although fering with computer emergency
Americans may be the best at throwing response teams, which respond after big
stones, they live in the glassiest of cyberattacks, and allowing one’s terri-
houses. That reality gives the United tory to be used for wrongful acts.
States a particular interest in the devel- The report was viewed as a break-
opment of norms that reduce incentives through, but progress slowed in 2017
to throw stones in cyberspace. when the expert group failed to agree on
Negotiating cyber-arms-control international legal issues and did not
treaties would be extremely difficult, produce a consensus report. At Russia’s
because they would not be verifiable. suggestion, the UN supplemented the
But diplomacy on cyberspace is hardly existing process by forming the Open-
impossible. In fact, international coop- Ended Working Group, which is open to
eration on developing cybernorms has all states and involves consultations with
been going on for more than two nongovernmental actors: dozens of
decades. In 1998, Russia first proposed a private companies, civil society organiza-
UN treaty to ban electronic and infor- tions, academics, and technical experts.
mation weapons. The United States Early in 2021, this new group issued a
rejected the idea, arguing that a treaty broad, if somewhat anodyne, report that
in this area would be unverifiable reaffirmed the 2015 norms, as well as the
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Joseph S. Nye, Jr.
relevance of international law to cyber- These efforts are less flashy (and less
space. Last June, the sixth expert group expensive) than the development of
also completed its work and released a sophisticated cyberdefense systems, but
report that added important details to they will play a crucial role in curbing
the 11 norms first introduced in 2015. malign activity online. Many further
China and Russia are still pressing for a norms can be imagined and proposed
treaty, but what is more likely to happen for cyberspace, but the important
is the gradual evolution of these norms. question now is not whether more
In addition to the UN process, there norms are needed but how they will be
have been many other forums for implemented and whether and when
discussion about cybernorms, including they will alter state behavior.
the Global Commission on the Stability
of Cyberspace. Initiated in 2017 by a THE NEW PRIVATEERS
Dutch think tank, with strong support Norms are not effective until they
from the Dutch government, the GCSC become common state practice, and that
(of which I was a member) was co- can take time. It took many decades for
chaired by Estonia, India, and the norms against slavery to develop in
United States and included former Europe and the United States in the
government officials, experts from civil nineteenth century. The key question is
society, and academics from 16 countries. why states ever let norms constrain
The GCSC proposed eight norms to their behavior. There are at least four
address gaps in the existing UN guid- main reasons: coordination, prudence,
ance. The most important were calls to reputational costs, and domestic pres-
protect the “public core” infrastructure sures, including public opinion and
of the Internet from attack and to economic changes.
prohibit interference with electoral Common expectations inscribed in
systems. The GCSC also called on coun- laws, norms, and principles help states
tries not to use cybertools to interfere coordinate their efforts. For example,
with supply chains; not to introduce although some states (including the
botnets into others’ machines in order to United States) have not ratified the UN
control them without the host’s knowl- Convention on the Law of the Sea, all
edge; to create transparent processes states treat a 12-mile limit as customary
that states can follow in judging whether international law when it comes to
to disclose flaws and vulnerabilities they disputes about territorial waters. The
discover in others’ coding; to encourage benefits of coordination—and the risks
states to promptly patch cybersecurity posed by its absence—have been evident
vulnerabilities when discovered and not in cyberspace on the few occasions
hoard them for possible use in the when targets have been hacked through
future; to improve “cyber hygiene,” abuse of the Internet’s domain name
including through law and regulations; system, which is sometimes called “the
and to discourage private vigilantism by telephone book of the Internet” and is
making it illegal for private businesses run by the nonprofit Internet Corpora-
to “hack back,” that is, to launch coun- tion for Assigned Names and Numbers,
terattacks against hackers. or ICANN. By corrupting the phone
book, such attacks put the basic stability for example, the Biological Weapons
of the Internet at risk. Unless states Convention, which came into force in
refrain from interfering with the 1975. Any country that wishes to de-
structure that makes it possible for velop biological weapons has to do so
private networks to connect, there is no secretly and illegally and faces wide-
Internet. And so, for the most part, spread international condemnation if
states eschew these tactics. evidence of its activities leaks, as the
Prudence results from the fear of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein discovered.
creating unintended consequences in It is hard to imagine the emergence of
unpredictable systems and can develop a similar blanket taboo against the use of
into a norm of nonuse or limited use of cyberweapons. For one thing, it is diffi-
certain weapons or a norm of limiting cult to determine whether any particular
targets. Something like this happened line of code is a weapon or not. A more
with nuclear weapons when the super- likely taboo is one that would prohibit the
powers came close to the brink of nuclear use of cyberweapons against particular
war in 1962, during the Cuban missile targets, such as hospitals or health-care
crisis. The Limited Test Ban Treaty systems. Such prohibitions would have
followed a year later. A more distant but the benefit of piggybacking on the
historical example of how prudence existing taboo against using conventional
produced a norm against using certain weapons on civilians. During the
tactics is the fate of privateering. In the COVID-19 pandemic, public revulsion
eighteenth century, national navies against ransomware attacks on hospitals
routinely employed private individuals or has helped reinforce that taboo and
private ships to augment their power at suggested how it might apply to other
sea. But in the following century, states areas in the realm of cyberspace. Some-
turned away from privateers because thing similar might evolve if hackers
their extracurricular pillaging became too were to cause an increase in fatal acci-
costly. As governments struggled to dents from the use of electric vehicles.
control privateers, attitudes changed, and
new norms of prudence and restraint PEER PRESSURE
developed. One could imagine something Some scholars have argued that norms
similar occurring in the domain of have a natural life cycle. They often begin
cyberspace as governments discover that with “norm entrepreneurs”: individuals,
using proxies and private actors to carry organizations, social groups, and official
out cyberattacks produces negative commissions that enjoy an outsize
economic effects and increases the risk of influence on public opinion. After a
escalation. A number of states have certain gestation period, some norms
outlawed “hacking back.” reach a tipping point, when cascades of
Concerns about damage to a coun- acceptance translate into a widespread
try’s reputation and soft power can also belief and leaders find that they would
produce voluntary restraint. Taboos pay a steep price for rejecting it.
develop over time and increase the costs Embryonic norms can arise from
of using or even possessing a weapon changing social attitudes, or they can be
that can inflict massive damage. Take, imported. Take, for example, the spread

Joseph S. Nye, Jr.
of concern for universal human rights a nuisance and begins to cost lives. If
after 1945. Western countries took the fatalities increase, the Silicon Valley
lead in promoting the Universal Decla- norm of “build quickly and patch later”
ration of Human Rights in 1948, but may gradually give way to norms and
many other states felt obliged to sign on laws about liability that place more
because of public opinion and subse- emphasis on security.
quently found themselves constrained
by external pressure and by concern CYBER-RULES ARE MADE
about their reputations. One might TO BE BROKEN
expect such constraints to be stronger in Even with international consensus that
democracies than in authoritarian states. norms are needed, agreeing where to
But the Helsinki process, a series of draw redlines and what to do when
meetings between the Soviet Union and they’re crossed is another matter. And
Western countries in the early 1970s, the question becomes, even if authori-
successfully included human rights in tarian states sign up for normative
discussions about political and economic conventions, how likely are they to
issues during the Cold War. adhere to them? In 2015, Chinese
Economic change can also foster a President Xi Jinping and U.S. President
demand for new norms that might Barack Obama agreed not to use cyber-
promote efficiency and growth. Norms espionage for commercial advantage,
against privateering and slavery gath- but private security companies reported
ered support when these practices were that China adhered to this pledge for
economically in decline. A similar only a year or so before it returned to
dynamic is at work today in the cyber- its old habit of hacking U.S. corporate
realm. Companies that find themselves and federal data, although that hap-
disadvantaged by conflicting national pened in the context of worsening
laws relating to privacy and the location economic relations marked by the rise
of data might press governments to of tariff wars. Does this mean the
develop common standards and norms. agreement failed? Rather than make it a
The cyber-insurance industry may put yes or no question, critics argue that the
pressure on authorities to flesh out focus (and any ensuing warning against
standards and norms, especially in such actions) should be on the amount
regard to the technology embedded in of damage done, not the precise lines
the myriad household devices (thermo- that were crossed or how the violations
stats, refrigerators, home alarm systems) were carried out. An analogy is telling
that are now online: the so-called the hosts of a drunken party that if the
Internet of Things. As more and more noise gets too loud, you will call the
devices become connected to the police. The objective is not the impos-
Internet, they will soon become targets sible one of stopping the music but the
for cyberattacks, and the impact on more practical one of lowering the
citizens’ daily lives will increase and volume to a more tolerable level.
foster demand for domestic and interna- There are other times when the
tional norms. Public concern will only United States will need to draw prin-
accelerate if hacking becomes more than cipled lines and defend them. It should
acknowledge that it will continue to difficult, but even greater ideological

carry out intrusions in cyberspace for differences did not prevent agreements
purposes it deems legitimate. And it that helped avoid escalation during the
will need to state precisely the norms Cold War. Prudence can sometimes be
and limits that Washington will up- more important than ideology.
hold—and call out countries that violate This seems to have been the ap-
them. When China or Russia crosses a proach explored by the Biden adminis-
line, the United States will have to tration at a June summit with Russian
respond with targeted retaliation. This President Vladimir Putin in Geneva,
could involve public sanctions and also where cyberspace played a larger role on
private actions, such as freezing the bank the agenda than nuclear weapons.
accounts of some oligarchs or releasing According to press accounts, U.S.
embarrassing information about them. President Joe Biden handed Putin a list
U.S. Cyber Command’s practices of of 16 areas of critical infrastructure,
defend forward and persistent engage- including chemicals, communications,
ment can be useful here, although they energy, financial services, health care,
would best be accompanied by a process and information technology, that should
of quiet communication. be, in Biden’s words, “off limits to
Treaties regarding cyberspace may attack, period.” After the summit, Biden
be unworkable, but it might be possible disclosed that he had asked Putin how
to set limits on certain types of behavior he would feel if Russian pipelines were
and negotiate rough rules of the road. taken out by ransomware. “I pointed
During the Cold War, informal norms out to him that we have significant
governed the treatment of each side’s cyber-capability, and he knows it,”
spies; expulsion, rather than execution, Biden remarked at a press conference.
became the norm. In 1972, the Soviet “He does not know exactly what it is,
Union and the United States negotiated but it is significant. And if in fact they
the Incidents at Sea Agreement to limit violate these basic norms, we will
naval behavior that might lead to respond with cyber. He knows.” Thus
escalation. Today, China, Russia, and far, however, it is unclear to what extent
the United States might negotiate limits Biden’s words have been effective.
on their behavior regarding the extent One problem with specifying what
and type of cyber-espionage they carry needed to be protected might be that it
out, as Xi and Obama did in 2015. Or implied that other areas were fair
they might agree to set limits on their game—and that ransomware attacks
interventions in one another’s domestic from criminals in Russia would continue
political processes. Although such no matter what. In the cyber-realm,
pledges would lack the precise language nonstate actors serve as state proxies to
of formal treaties, the three countries varying degrees, and rules should
could independently make unilateral require their identification and limita-
statements about areas of self-restraint tion. And because the rules of the road
and establish a consultative process to will never be perfect, they must be
contain conflict. Ideological differences accompanied by a consultative process
would make a detailed agreement that establishes a framework for warn-

Joseph S. Nye, Jr.
ing and negotiating. Such a process, and sustainability of U.S. threats to

together with strong deterrent threats, impose costs in response to violations.”
is unlikely to fully stop Chinese and The Biden administration is wres-
Russian interference, but if it reduces tling with the fact that the domain of
its frequency or intensity, it could cyberspace has created important new
enhance the defense of U.S. democracy opportunities and vulnerabilities in
against such cyberattacks. world politics. Reorganizing and reengi-
neering at home must be at the heart of
CHANGING BEHAVIOR the resulting strategy, but it also needs a
In cyberspace, one size does not fit all. strong international component based
There may be some norms related to on deterrence and diplomacy. The
coordination that can accommodate diplomatic component must include
both authoritarian and democratic alliances among democracies, capacity
states. But others cannot, such as the building in developing countries, and
“Internet freedom” agenda introduced improved international institutions.
by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Such a strategy must also include
Clinton in 2010. It proclaimed a free developing norms with the long-term
and open Internet. One can think of goal of protecting the old glass house of
norms organized in a set of concentric American democracy from the new
circles with what Europeans call “vari- stones of the Internet age.∂
able geometry” of obligations. Groups
of democracies can set a higher standard
for themselves by agreeing on norms
related to privacy, surveillance, and free
expression and enforcing them through
special trade agreements that would
give preference to those that meet the
higher standards, along the lines sug-
gested by the cybersecurity expert
Robert Knake. Such agreements could
remain open to other states—so long as
they are willing and able to meet the
higher standards.
Diplomacy among democracies on
these issues will not be easy, but it will
be an important part of U.S. strategy.
As James Miller and Robert Butler, two
former senior Pentagon officials, have
argued, “If U.S. allies and partners
support cyber norms, they are likely to
be more willing to support imposing
costs on violators, thus substantially
improving the credibility, severity
(through multilateral cost imposition),
“This book promises to “A superb portrait of American “An authoritative survey
be essential reading for democracy’s encounter with of the major issues
international security experts.” Trump—and how we got there.” confronting China.”
—Jennifer L. Erickson, —Ali Soufan, author of The Black —Walter C. Clemens, Jr.,
Boston College Banners (Declassified) New York Journal of Books
“A lucid, incisive, and “In the wireless 21st-century “An engaging analysis of the long
authoritative investigation into world, espionage, sabotage, and history of thinking about how and
the demise of America’s liberal brainwashing are no longer the why states should help prevent
agenda in the developing world province of government agencies; atrocities beyond their borders.”
during the 1960s.” nearly anyone with an internet
—Simon Adams, executive director
connection can do it. Disturbing
—Fredrik Logevall, Pulitzer Prize– of the Global Centre for the
but superbly insightful.”
winning author of Embers of War Responsibility to Protect
—Kirkus Reviews, starred review
tion Chinese companies and citizens who
The Case for
DIGITAL DISORDER
continued to target U.S. companies with

cyberattacks or exploit stolen intellectual
Cyber-Realism property for commercial gain. These
threats, the first that an American presi-
dent had ever issued in response to
Geopolitical Problems Chinese economic espionage, were
Don’t Have Technical calibrated to address not just China’s
Solutions cyber-activities but also its broader
economic and strategic objectives. “We
are preparing a number of measures that
Dmitri Alperovitch will indicate to the Chinese that this is
not just a matter of us being mildly upset,
but is something that will put significant
I
n September 2015, U.S. President strains on the bilateral relationship if not
Barack Obama stood beside Chinese resolved,” Obama told business leaders
President Xi Jinping in the White the week before Xi’s visit. “We are
House Rose Garden and announced a prepared to take some countervailing
historic deal to curb cyber-related actions in order to get their attention.”
economic espionage. The scope of the Initially, the agreement was a limited
agreement was modest, committing success. Intrusions from Chinese
China and the United States only to stop government-affiliated groups dropped to
stealing or aiding in the cyber-enabled their lowest level in over a decade in 2016.
theft of intellectual property in order to And for the next two years, American
boost domestic industry. It was an easy companies enjoyed a brief respite from
promise for the United States to make, what had previously been an unrelenting
since Washington had long prohibited assault by Chinese military- and intelli-
U.S. intelligence services from conduct- gence-affiliated hackers. But the détente
ing economic espionage for the benefit was short-lived. In 2018, U.S. President
of private companies. But it was a Donald Trump launched a trade war that
groundbreaking pledge for China, whose undercut the United States’ economic
military and intelligence agencies had for leverage over China and reduced Beijing’s
more than a decade engaged in massive incentives to adhere to the pact. Later
cyber-enabled theft of U.S. intellectual that same year, the National Security
property and state secrets in order to Agency accused China of violating the
advantage Chinese companies. agreement, and the U.S. Justice Depart-
The agreement was equally ground- ment proceeded to indict Chinese hackers
breaking because of how it came about. In on charges of cyber-enabled economic
the weeks leading up to the Rose Garden espionage. The Trump administration
ceremony, Obama had threatened to sanc- threatened to impose broad sanctions on
Chinese companies, but it ultimately
DMITRI ALPEROVITCH is Co-Founder and sanctioned only a few firms.
Chair of Silverado Policy Accelerator and
Co-Founder and former Chief Technology Although it failed in the end, the 2015
Officer of the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike. agreement between Obama and Xi offers
Dmitri Alperovitch
a promising model for addressing problems that demand geopolitical

cyberthreats. Until recently, the United solutions—namely high-level negotia-
States has tended to approach issues tions with adversaries in the pursuit of
related to cyberspace as a narrow set of agreements that all parties can live with.
technical problems to be solved primarily As the range of cyberthreats multi-
with a combination of defensive and plies and the frequency and severity of
limited deterrence measures. Those attacks increase, Washington needs a
defensive efforts have included funding dose of cyber-realism. It must treat
the modernization of technology, regulat- cyberthreats as a geopolitical and na-
ing industries involved in critical infra- tional security priority that demands
structure, and improving collaboration hard-nosed diplomacy—backed by all of
and information sharing between the the United States’ tools for gaining
government and industry. Deterrence leverage—to entice or threaten U.S.
has typically involved punitive actions by adversaries into changing their behavior,
law enforcement or sanctions against as Obama did in 2015. The specific
individual perpetrators or their affiliated carrots and sticks will need to be tailored
military and intelligence agencies. After to each adversary, taking into account its
North Korean hackers breached Sony unique geopolitical ambitions. But the
Pictures in 2014, for instance, the United sticks will have to include more aggres-
States sanctioned individual North sive deterrence, aimed not just at the
Korean officials and indicted three North hostile military and intelligence agencies
Korean intelligence operatives. Russia’s that perpetrate cyberattacks but at the
interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential regimes to which those agencies answer.
election occasioned a similar response: Cyberspace is not an isolated realm of its
Washington imposed sanctions on own, after all, but an extension of the
Russian intelligence agencies, indicted broader geopolitical battlefield.
Russian military officers, expelled
Russian intelligence officers operating DEFENSE AND DETERRENCE
under diplomatic cover, and shut down For most of the last three decades, U.S.
several Russian facilities located in the cybersecurity policy and cyberstrategy
United States. The United States has have treated cyberattacks as if they
also sought to deter adversaries by emerged from the ether, unconnected to
threatening to take the offensive and the geopolitical conflicts and competitions
carry out retaliatory cyberattacks. Yet that structure the global security order. As
despite all these steps, neither North a result, much of U.S. cyberstrategy has
Korea nor Russia—nor any other U.S. focused on managing the effects of
adversary, for that matter—has ceased cyberattacks through defense and narrow
targeting the United States. deterrence of actors in cyberspace rather
That is because vulnerability to cyber- than addressing the causes of cyberattacks.
attacks is not a technical problem that Defensive measures can be either
hardened defenses or narrow, cyber- proactive or reactive, seeking to protect
focused deterrence can fix. Cyberattacks networks from intrusions or to trying
are a symptom, not a disease; the under- to limit the damage when intrusions
lying conditions are broader geopolitical inevitably occur. But neither of these
The Case for Cyber-Realism
types of defensive measures has proved relatively minor, and they continue to
equal to the increasing cyberthreat—as carry out or condone cyberattacks at an
Russia’s recent and extensive hack of unrelenting pace. More aggressive
U.S. government networks via network- sanctions that would threaten the
monitoring software made by the underpinnings of economic growth in
Texas-based company SolarWinds, these countries, such as sanctions against
among other major incidents in cyber- industrial national champions, would
space, has made clear. Attackers have likely achieve a greater effect. But
an inherent advantage in cyberspace: because the United States does not
when the cost of each attempted hack is approach these attacks in their broader
low and the penalties are effectively geopolitical contexts, it has failed to
nonexistent, hackers seeking to infil- mount appropriately tailored responses.
trate even hardened targets can afford On occasion, the United States has
to spend months and sometimes years gone on the cyberoffensive. Ahead of the
trying to find a way in. That asymmet- 2018 U.S. midterm elections, for in-
ric advantage makes aggressors quite stance, U.S. intelligence agencies sought
likely to succeed eventually, since they to disrupt the Internet Research Agency,
need to get lucky only once, whereas Russia’s infamous Internet troll factory.
defenders must discover and stop each Such offensive measures have occasion-
hacking attempt. ally succeeded on a tactical level, imped-
Even if the U.S. government could ing or slowing adversaries’ attacks for a
sufficiently harden its own defenses, time. But they have done nothing to
moreover, it would not be able to change the basic calculus of U.S. adver-
prevent all or even most cyberattacks, saries in cyberspace or to make the
many of which are directed against United States less vulnerable to cyberat-
smaller entities, such as schools, hospi- tacks in the long term.
tals, police departments, small busi-
nesses, and nonprofit organizations, THE GEOPOLITICS OF CYBERSPACE
which have neither the resources nor The vast majority of cyberattacks
the knowledge to implement complex against U.S. entities, whether by crimi-
cybersecurity strategies. These organi- nal groups or governments, emanate
zations will have little chance of fending from the four countries—China, Iran,
off sophisticated cyberattacks from North Korea, and Russia—that also pose
hostile countries no matter how effec- the greatest conventional military
tive U.S. government defenses become. threats to the United States. To effec-
Deterrence, as it has traditionally tively counter the cyberthreat from
been practiced, has been similarly these countries, Washington must
ineffective at preventing cyberattacks. In consider their broader geopolitical goals.
the past four years, the U.S. government China is the United States’ most
has sanctioned and indicted government formidable adversary in cyberspace, as
officials and contractors from all its four well as in the conventional military
primary adversaries: China, Iran, North domain. It has made no secret of its
Korea, and Russia. Yet these states ambition to surpass the United States as
regard the cost of such measures as the world’s leading economic and mili-

Dmitri Alperovitch
tary superpower, and its activities in maintain its influence in its so-called
cyberspace follow logically from this near abroad. Nevertheless, it is striving
goal. The vast majority of Chinese to retain its status as a great power, a goal
cyberattacks are instances of traditional that its leaders believe they can achieve
and economic espionage. Between 2010 by strengthening their position at home
and 2015, for instance, state-sponsored while undercutting the reputation of the
Chinese hackers systematically targeted United States and its allies and frustrat-
U.S. and European aerospace companies, ing their international ambitions.
stealing valuable information that China Like its Soviet predecessor, the
then funneled to its state-owned aero- Russian government carries out tradi-
space manufacturers. This hacking tional spying and economic espionage.
campaign was an enormous success; by Today’s Kremlin uses both cybertools
the time it was discovered, in 2018, and conventional means for this purpose.
Chinese manufacturers had already built But Russia’s cyber-activities also focus on
commercial jets based in part on the sowing political and economic turmoil in
stolen intellectual property. the West, undercutting Westerners’ faith
China’s cyber-espionage has been in democratic government, and weaken-
especially aggressive in sectors that ing the influence of Western countries in
Beijing deems critical to its economic and Russia’s neighborhood. Moscow’s inter-
national security objectives. Last July, for ference in the 2016 U.S. presidential
instance, the National Security Agency, election, its 2017 malware attack that took
the FBI, and the Cybersecurity and down networks in Ukraine before spread-
Infrastructure Security Agency released a ing around the world, and its 2018 hack
joint report warning that Beijing-linked of the International Olympic Committee
hackers were continuing to target U.S. all served this broader agenda.
companies and institutions in strategi- The same is true of Russian ransom-
cally important areas, including defense ware attacks, which, despite being
and semiconductor firms, medical institu- carried out by criminal gangs, represent
tions, and universities. Compared with an important part of the Kremlin’s
other U.S. adversaries, however, China strategy. The cybercriminals that have
has engaged in relatively little cybercrime targeted thousands of U.S. organiza-
and has carried out few destructive tions and extracted over $1 billion in
cyberattacks. This, too, fits with China’s ransoms in recent years have sometimes
broader strategic agenda, since such been protected by Russian security
activities could undercut China’s standing forces, and regardless, the Kremlin’s
on the international stage. refusal to crack down on them amounts
Russia has its own set of geopolitical to a tacit endorsement of their activi-
goals that its cyber-activities aim to ties. Although cybercrime does not
advance. Like Beijing, Moscow is moti- advance Russia’s core national interests,
vated by a pugilistic sense of national it does serve a strategic purpose: dis-
pride. But unlike China, Russia does not rupting the U.S. economy and sowing
have the economic capacity to compete fear among American business leaders.
with the United States. It is increasingly Cybercriminals are also valuable bar-
isolated internationally and struggles to gaining chips in international negotia-
The Case for Cyber-Realism
tions: Russia can offer action against curb intellectual property theft. Likewise,
ransomware gangs in exchange for if the United States wants to check
important concessions, without having Russia’s nefarious cyber-activities, it will
to address its more strategically impor- need to ease Moscow’s concerns about
tant, state-sponsored cyber-activity. U.S. interference in Russian domestic
The United States’ other two major and regional affairs. Addressing the
adversaries, Iran and North Korea, have cyberthreat from Iran and North Korea
also used cybertools to advance their will similarly require making progress on
domestic and international goals, al- negotiations over their respective nuclear
though less ably than China and Russia. programs, which are by far the most
Both countries have done so primarily to pressing concern for both countries.
circumvent Western sanctions that are This might seem like cause for
squeezing their domestic economies. The gloomy fatalism about the chances of
North Korean regime has financed itself resolving issues related to cyberspace.
with tens of millions of dollars accumu- In fact, the opposite is true. Like all
lated through cybercrime, and Iran has complex geopolitical challenges, cyber-
used cyber-enabled economic espionage threats can be addressed using the right
to get around Western sanctions on combination of incentives, disincen-
defense technologies, petrochemical tives, and compromises. The question
production, and other strategic sectors. for the United States and its allies is
Both countries have also used cyberat- whether they are willing to prioritize
tacks to weaken their regional rivals, progress on issues in cyberspace over
with North Korea launching attacks progress on other geopolitical objec-
against South Korea and Iran targeting tives—and what they are willing to give
Israel and Saudi Arabia. up for the sake of that progress. Con-
sidering the recent slew of major
GRAND BARGAINS ransomware attacks and supply chain
Better defensive measures might help hacks, the Biden administration must
insulate U.S. government agencies, urgently answer that question. Then it
private U.S. companies, and individual must back up its rhetoric on cyberspace
Americans from the consequences of with hard-nosed diplomacy that can
major cyberattacks carried out by these change its adversaries’ behavior.
U.S. adversaries. But neither defense nor Part of what it will take to force these
deterrence as it is currently practiced can countries to make a deal will be broader
mitigate these threats on its own. Wash- deterrence, including measures that raise
ington’s capabilities might improve, but the costs to hostile regimes of carrying
so, too, will those of its rivals. out cyberattacks while denying them the
To halt China’s malign cyber-activity, benefits of doing so. In addition to
the United States and its allies will have military and spy agencies, the United
to convince Beijing to make a deal. In States should sanction and prosecute
exchange for a de-escalation of the trade companies and executives in countries,
war, Beijing might agree to remove such as China, that benefit from cyber-
market-distorting industrial subsidies, enabled economic espionage, sending the
halt the forced transfer of technology, and message that the theft of intellectual

Dmitri Alperovitch
property and trade secrets comes at a defenses and to help companies and
hefty price. Since anonymous cryptocur- citizens do the same. Ultimately, how-
rency transfers now fuel so much global ever, Washington must accept that
cybercrime, the United States should cyberattacks are primarily an effect, and
also work with its allies to sanction and not a cause, of geopolitical tensions.
shut down cryptocurrency exchanges Unless the United States treats the
that cater to criminal operations or that underlying disease, it will never fully
do not perform due diligence on the recover from the symptoms.∂
transactions they facilitate.
To be sure, as long as grand bargains
remain elusive, the United States will
have to harden its defenses and make
itself more resilient. The U.S. govern-
ment has a poor record on cybersecu-
rity, so it needs to step up its game and
lead by example—for instance, by
centralizing all civilian cybersecurity
operations within the Cybersecurity and
Infrastructure Security Agency. It must
also incentivize public and private
investment in defensive measures,
including by subsidizing the costs of
defense for municipalities, nonprofits,
and small businesses and by holding
companies that do not take responsible
security measures accountable for
negligent failures. Although these
measures can only ever be a partial fix,
they can limit the damage done by hack-
ers and other cybercriminals until
Washington can forge a more lasting
diplomatic solution.
When the United States faces a
military threat from a hostile nation, it
does not tell its citizens and businesses
to fund their own private armies or to
negotiate their own peace deals. Many
cyberthreats are not meaningfully
different from military or economic
threats, and yet the United States allows
much of the burden of defending against
them to fall on individual companies and
citizens. In the short term, the United
States must do more to harden its
ESSAYS
Xi’s conviction in
the centrality of
China imagines a
radically transformed
international order.
– Elizabeth Economy
Xi Jinping’s New World Order All Against All

Elizabeth Economy 52 Vali Nasr 128
Green Upheaval India’s Stalled Rise

Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan 68 Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman 139
J U P E N G / X I N H UA / EY EV I N E / R E D U X
Keeping the Wrong Secrets The Coming Carbon Tsunami

Oona A. Hathaway 85 Kelly Sims Gallagher 151
The Real Crisis of Global Order

Alexander Cooley and
Daniel H. Nexon 103
The Revolution Will Not Be Privatized

Diane Coyle 119
Xi Jinping’s New
World Order
Can China Remake the
International System?
Elizabeth Economy
X
i Jinping savored the moment. Speaking before China’s annual
gathering of nearly 3,000 representatives to the National Peo-
ple’s Congress in Beijing in March 2021, the Chinese president
took a post-pandemic victory lap, proclaiming that his country had been
the first to tame covid-19, the first to resume work, and the first to re-
gain positive economic growth. It was the result, he argued, of “self-
confidence in our path, self-confidence in our theories, self-confidence
in our system, self-confidence in our culture.” And he further shared his
pride that “now, when our young people go abroad, they can stand tall
and feel proud—unlike us when we were young.” For Xi, China’s suc-
cess in controlling the spread of the novel coronavirus was yet more
evidence that he was on the right track: China was reclaiming its his-
toric position of leadership and centrality on the global stage. The brief
official history of the Chinese Communist Party (ccp) that was pub-
lished the following month reinforced his assessment. It claimed that Xi
had brought China “closer to the center of the world stage than it has
ever been. The nation has never been closer to its own rebirth.”
China already occupies a position of centrality in the international
system. It is the world’s largest trading power and greatest source of
global lending, it boasts the world’s largest population and military,
and it has become a global center of innovation. Most analysts predict
that China’s real gdp will surpass that of the United States by 2030 to
make it the largest economy in the world. Moreover, as the evolution
ELIZABETH ECONOMY is a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University
and the author of The World According to China.
Xi Jinping’s New World Order
of the pandemic has illustrated, China’s response to global challenges

has profound implications for the rest of the world.
Yet even as Xi’s ambition and China’s global prominence have be-
come indisputable, many observers continue to question whether Bei-
jing wants to shape a new international order or merely force some
adjustments to the current one, advancing discrete interests and prefer-
ences without fundamentally transforming the global system. They ar-
gue that Beijing’s orientation is overwhelmingly defensive and designed
only to protect itself from criticism of its political system and to realize
a limited set of sovereignty claims. That view misses the scope of Xi’s
vision. His understanding of the centrality of China signifies some-
thing more than ensuring that the relative weight of the country’s voice
or influence within the existing international system is adequately rep-
resented. It connotes a radically transformed international order.
In Xi’s vision, a unified and resurgent China would be on par with
or would surpass the United States. China is the preeminent power in
Asia, and its maritime domain has expanded to include control over
contested areas in the East China and South China Seas. The United
States has retreated back across the Pacific to assume its rightful place
as an Atlantic power. Moreover, the formidable network of U.S. alli-
ances that has underpinned the international system for more than 70
years is dissolving in favor of a proposed Chinese framework of dia-
logue, negotiation, and cooperation. China’s influence also radiates
through the world via infrastructure ranging from ports, railways, and
bases to fiber-optic cables, e-payment systems, and satellites. In the
same way that U.S., European, and Japanese companies led the devel-
opment of the world’s twentieth-century infrastructure, Chinese com-
panies compete to lead in the twenty-first century. Xi ably uses China’s
economic power to induce and coerce compliance with his vision.
This shift in the geostrategic landscape reflects and reinforces an
even more profound transformation: the rise of a China-centric order
with its own norms and values. However imperfectly, the post–World
War II international order was shaped primarily by liberal democra-
cies that were committed in principle to universal human rights, the
rule of law, free markets, and limited state intervention in the political
and social lives of their citizens. Multilateral institutions and interna-
tional law were designed to advance these values and norms, and tech-
nology was often used to bolster them. Yet Xi seeks to flip a switch
and replace those values with the primacy of the state. Institutions,

Elizabeth Economy
laws, and technology in this new order reinforce state control, limit
individual freedoms, and constrain open markets. It is a world in
which the state controls the flow of information and capital both
within its own borders and across international boundaries, and there
is no independent check on its power.
Chinese officials and scholars appear assured that the rest of the
world is onboard with Xi’s vision, as they trumpet, “The East is rising,
and the West is declining!” Yet many countries increasingly seem less
enamored of Xi’s bold initiatives, as the full political and economic
costs of embracing the Chinese model become clear. At the People’s
Congress, Xi exuded the self-confidence of a leader convinced that
the world is there for China’s taking. But his own certainty may be a
liability, preventing him from recognizing the resistance Beijing is
stoking through its actions abroad. Xi’s success depends on whether
he can adjust and reckon with the blowback. Failing to do so could
lead to further miscalculations that may end up reshaping the global
order—just not in the way Xi imagines.
REUNIFYING THE MOTHERLAND

Xi’s path to a reordered world begins by redrawing the map of
China. In an October 2021 speech, Xi asserted, “The historical task of
the complete reunification of the motherland must be fulfilled and
will definitely be fulfilled.” Asserting sovereignty over long-contested
territories—particularly those Beijing terms its core interests: Hong
Kong, the South China Sea, and Taiwan—is Xi’s number one priority.
Beijing has already dealt with Hong Kong. In 2020, China imposed
a national security law on the city that effectively ended its autonomy
under the “one country, two systems” governance model that was put
in place in 1997 at the time of Hong Kong’s handoff from London to
Beijing. In a matter of months, Beijing undermined the city’s long-
standing commitment to basic human rights and the rule of law and
transformed Hong Kong into just another mainland Chinese city.
Xi has also made progress in asserting Chinese sovereignty in the
South China Sea. He has created and militarized seven artificial fea-
tures in the sea and laid claim to scores of other islands and stretches
of maritime territory. He increasingly deploys China’s powerful navy,
newly armed coast guard, and vast fishing fleet to intimidate the five
other nations with overlapping claims—Brunei, Malaysia, the Philip-
pines, Taiwan, and Vietnam—and to assert control in disputed waters.
Throughout the pandemic, Xi has also taken advantage of other coun-

tries’ distraction to press additional territorial claims: for more than
100 days in a row, Chinese vessels sailed into waters off Japan and
around a number of contested islands there that China calls the Diaoyu
Islands and Japan calls the Senkaku Islands; a Chinese coast guard ves-
sel rammed and sank a Vietnamese
fishing boat; Chinese military aircraft
flew over disputed waters claimed by China already occupies a
both China and Malaysia; and China position of centrality in the
and India engaged in their first deadly
border conflict in four decades.
international system.
No map of China would be accept-
able to Xi, however, if it did not reflect mainland Chinese control over
Taiwan. At the 19th Party Congress, in October 2017, Xi declared that
unification with Taiwan was one of 14 must-do items necessary to achieve
the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” He has further under-
scored the importance of unification with his vivid imagery: “People on
both sides of the strait are one family, with shared blood. . . . No one can
ever cut the veins that connect us.”
Xi speaks about unification with Taiwan with increasing frequency and
urgency. He remains convinced that Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is
advancing an independence agenda, claiming that the island nation’s “in-
dependence separatism” remains the “most serious hidden danger to na-
tional rejuvenation.” Since Tsai came to power, in 2016, Xi has cut off the
long-established cross-strait dialogue; dramatically reduced the number
of mainland tourists permitted to travel to Taiwan, from 4.2 million in
2015 to 2.7 million in 2017, contributing to a drop in the island’s annual
tourism revenue from $44.5 billion to $24.4 billion; convinced seven of
the 22 remaining states that formally recognize Taiwan as the Republic of
China to abandon Taipei for Beijing; and prevented Taiwan from partici-
pating in the World Health Assembly briefings in the early months of the
pandemic. During Tsai’s 2020 reelection campaign, ccp hackers also al-
legedly spread disinformation designed to undermine her. Beijing’s in-
creasingly threatening military exercises along Taiwan’s coast provoke
frequent talk of a possible Chinese military attack.
Xi’s efforts to intimidate Taiwan have failed to convince the island
nation to embrace unification. Instead, they have produced a backlash
both within Taiwan and abroad. A greater percentage of Taiwanese
than ever before—64 percent—favor independence, and few Taiwan-

Elizabeth Economy
ese retain faith that a “one country, two systems” framework could
ever work, particularly in the wake of the crackdown in Hong Kong.
A growing number of countries have also stepped up to offer support
to Taiwan. In an unprecedented policy shift, Japan asserted in 2021
that it had a direct stake in ensuring Taiwan’s status as a democracy.
Several small European countries have also rallied to Taiwan’s diplo-
matic defense: the Czech Republic, Lithuania, and Slovakia have all
welcomed the Taiwanese foreign minister for a visit. For its part, the
United States has supported a wide array of new legislation and dip-
lomatic activity designed to strengthen the bilateral relationship and
embed Taiwan in regional and international organizations.
BYE-BYE, MISS AMERICAN PIE

China is also busy trying to lay the foundation for the country to super-
sede the United States as the dominant force in the Asia-Pacific. De-
scribing the Asia-Pacific as a “big family” and claiming that “the region
cannot prosper without China” and “China cannot develop in isolation
from the region,” China’s leaders portray the Asia-Pacific as seamlessly
integrated through Chinese-powered trade, technology, infrastructure
and shared cultural and civilizational ties. Xi has been particularly suc-
cessful in cementing China’s position as the regional economic leader.
China is the largest trading partner of virtually all the countries in Asia,
and in 2021, the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Na-
tions together ranked as China’s top trading partner. At the end of
2020, Xi concluded the negotiations over the Chinese-led Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which includes China, ten
Southeast Asian countries, and Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and
South Korea. In a bold gambit, Xi has also advanced China for mem-
bership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-
Pacific Partnership, the Japanese-led free-trade agreement. This would
make China the dominant economic player in the two most important
regional trade agreements in the most economically dynamic region of
the world; the United States would remain sidelined.
China has been less successful in its efforts to position itself as
the region’s preeminent security actor, a role long played by the
United States. In 2014, Beijing proposed a new Asian security order
managed by Asian countries. China’s defense minister has criss-
crossed the Asia-Pacific region with the message that countries there
“should adhere to the principle that regional issues should be solved
by the regional countries through consultation.” Chinese officials

have also tried hard to paint U.S. alliances as anachronistic relics of
the Cold War and as hostile to China.
Yet Beijing’s military assertiveness in the region has directly under-
mined its push for leadership. A survey of Southeast Asian experts
and businesspeople found that less than two percent believed that
China was a benign and benevolent power, and less than 20 percent
were confident or very confident that China would “do the right
thing.” Nearly half of those polled believed that China was a “revi-
sionist power” that intended to transform the region into its sphere of
influence. (In contrast, over two-thirds of the interviewees were
confident or very confident that Japan would “do the right thing” by
contributing to global peace, security, prosperity, and governance.)
China’s behavior has also reenergized the Quad partnership, which
includes Australia, India, Japan, and the United States; spurred the
establishment of a new trilateral security pact among Australia, the
United Kingdom, and the United States; and prompted several Euro-
pean countries, including France, Germany, and the Netherlands,
along with nato, to deepen their security engagement in the Asia-
Pacific. Even Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who earlier
threatened to end his country’s alliance with the United States and
called China “a good friend,” is now upgrading the Philippines’ de-
fense relationship with Washington as he prepares to leave office.
THE DRAGON’S BITE

Xi’s ambition for Chinese centrality on the global stage is exquisitely
captured by his Belt and Road Initiative. Launched in 2013, the initia-
tive not only offers a physical manifestation of Chinese centrality
through three overland and three maritime corridors that will connect
China to Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa but also evokes
historical memories of the Silk Road and of Chinese centrality during
imperial times. In its original conception, the bri was a vehicle for
Chinese-led hard infrastructure development along the six corridors.
Today, bri offshoots include so-called digital, health, and polar Silk
Roads, and all countries are welcome to participate.
Unlike traditional infrastructure investment supported by multi-
lateral institutions, such as the World Bank and the Asian Develop-
ment Bank, China is a one-stop shop. It provides the financing and
the labor and materials for its projects; in many instances, it also

Elizabeth Economy
skips time-consuming evaluations of financial risk, processes of

transparent and open bidding, and assessments of environmental
and social impacts. It is China’s own development model gone global.
The bri has positioned China at the center of the international
system, with its physical, financial, cultural, technological, and po-
litical influence flowing to the rest of the world. It is redrawing the
fine details of the world’s map, with new railroads and bridges, fiber-
optic cables and 5G networks, and ports with the potential for hous-
ing Chinese military bases. By one assessment, the bri now touches
more than 60 countries and has exceeded $200 billion in Chinese
investment. Some countries, such as Pakistan, are being transformed
by the bri, with energy projects, new roads, and a massive upgrade
of both its Gwadar port and its digital infrastructure. Others have
more limited but overwhelmingly positive exposure. In Greece, for
example, Chinese investment in the port of Piraeus has contributed
to making it one of the top ports in Europe and among the top 50 in
the world. Brazilian officials and scholars are excited about the pos-
sibility of the bri not only developing infrastructure projects in their
country but also advancing innovation and sustainability efforts.
Xi has also conceived of the bri as a conduit through which China
can transmit its political and cultural values. In a major address in
October 2017, Xi advanced China’s development model as one worth
emulating, and Beijing now offers an extensive array of political
training programs. Tanzania, which is a bri pilot country for Chi-
nese political capacity building, has modeled its cybersecurity law
after that of China and worked with Beijing to constrain social me-
dia and the flow of information on the Internet. The governments of
other countries, such as Uganda, have been eager recipients of Chi-
nese technology and training to help them monitor and track politi-
cal opposition figures. And political parties in Ethiopia, South
Africa, and Sudan have participated in ccp training on the structure
of the ccp, ccp-grassroots relations, and the Chinese propaganda
system. China’s Digital Silk Road, which includes undersea cables,
e-payment systems, surveillance technologies, and 5G networks,
among other digital connectivity technologies, is particularly valu-
able as a means of transmitting Chinese political and cultural val-
ues. In Kenya, for example, Beijing provided not only satellite
television for more than 10,000 people but also tens of thousands of
hours of Chinese programming. Kenya’s airwaves, as well as those in
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Elizabeth Economy
other parts of Africa, are now filled with martial arts films, dramas
about life in China, and documentaries that promote a ccp political
narrative—such as one focusing on Japanese atrocities in World
War II—that have been dubbed into local languages.
Yet the bri has become increasingly bumpy. Although it can bring
the benefits of China’s infrastructure-heavy development model, it
also carries with it all the externalities: high levels of debt, corruption,
environmental pollution and degradation, and poor labor practices.
Popular protests have proliferated throughout host countries. In Ka-
zakhstan, citizens have demonstrated repeatedly against Chinese min-
ing projects and factories that pollute the environment and use Chinese
rather than local labor. Similar protests have erupted in Cambodia,
Papua New Guinea, and Zambia. Still other countries, including Cam-
eroon, Indonesia, Kenya, and Pakistan, have reported problems with
corruption in their bri projects. And some countries, such as Azerbai-
jan and Mongolia, no longer expect that the gains from their bri proj-
ects will ever exceed the costs. Many countries have put projects on
hold or canceled them outright: of the 52 coal-fired power plants
planned for development through the BRI between 2014 and 2020, 25
were shelved and eight canceled. (China’s September 2021 commit-
ment not to build new coal-fired power projects abroad suggests that
many of the shelved projects will ultimately be canceled.) A 2018 study
found that 270 out of the 1,814 bri projects undertaken since 2013 have
encountered governance difficulties; these troubled cases accounted
for 32 percent of the total value of the projects.
Beijing itself may be reconsidering its bri commitments. Investment
levels have declined steadily since 2016, and some of the presumed po-
litical benefits have not materialized. A review of the top ten recipients
of bri investments, for example, reveals no direct correlation between
the levels of investment and the countries’ support for China on critical
issues, such as Hong Kong, the South China Sea, and Chinese actions
in Xinjiang. As with China’s assertiveness on its borders, the bri has
also stoked a backlash. It has sparked competitive initiatives by Japan
and other countries to offer infrastructure financing and support with
higher standards and more benefits for local workforces.
Other efforts to enhance Chinese cultural influence are also encoun-
tering difficulties. For example, Xi has championed the adoption of
Chinese-language and Chinese cultural offerings through the estab-
lishment of Confucius Institutes in overseas universities and class-
rooms. For many educational institutions, Beijing’s financial support

for these institutes was essential to their ability to offer Chinese-
language training. As a result, they proliferated rapidly. Over time,
however, the more coercive undertone of the initiative undermined its
early success. In 2011, Li Changchun, then a member of the Politburo
Standing Committee, stated, “The Confucius Institute is an appealing
brand for expanding our culture
abroad. It has made an important con-
tribution toward improving our soft Xi’s path to a reordered
power. The ‘Confucius’ brand has a world begins by redrawing
natural attractiveness. Using the ex- the map of China.
cuse of teaching Chinese language,
everything looks reasonable.” Per Bei-
jing’s requirements, contracts between
local academic institutions and the Confucius Institutes remained
sealed, and the teachers and the curricula were determined by Beijing—
a concession most universities would make for no other outside part-
nership. In addition, a few of the institutes tried to shape broader
university policies around issues related to China, warning against
hosting the Dalai Lama, for example. As scholars and politicians in
Canada, Sweden, the United States, and elsewhere began to question
the integrity of the enterprise, the allure of the institutes dimmed.
By 2020, China had put in place only slightly more than half the
1,000 Confucius Institutes it had hoped to establish. And their im-
pact as a source of soft power appears to be limited. In Africa, where
China has established 61 Confucius Institutes, a survey revealed that
71 percent of citizens believe that English is the most important
language for the next generation to learn; 14 percent selected French,
and only two percent chose Chinese. And in Kazakhstan, where the
daughter of the former prime minister has been an outspoken cham-
pion of China and Chinese-language study, a public opinion survey
conducted by the Eurasian Development Bank revealed that only
one in six Kazakhs view China as a “friendly country.”
Initiatives such as the bri and the Confucius Institutes offer an at-
tractive vision of Chinese centrality that has been somewhat under-
mined by unattractive Chinese governance practices, but much of
Beijing’s effort to advance Chinese centrality relies explicitly on coer-
cion. China’s pandemic diplomacy, for example, highlighted for many
people the coercive nature of Chinese efforts to shape the world

Elizabeth Economy
around them. China’s “Wolf Warrior” diplomats weaponized the pro-

duction of personal protective equipment (ppe) by threatening to cut
off supplies to countries that criticized China. They also went on the
offensive to spread disinformation about the origins of the virus to
deflect attention from Chinese culpability. When Australia called for
an investigation into the origins of the virus, Beijing slapped restric-
tions and tariffs on some of Australia’s most popular exports.
China’s use of economic leverage to coerce international actors is
long standing and well known. Beijing threatened the international
airline, retail, film, and hotel industries with serious financial repercus-
sions, for example, if they did not recognize Chinese sovereignty claims
regarding Hong Kong, the South China Sea, and Taiwan in their pub-
lished material. In the wake of the now famous tweet by Daryl Morey,
then the Houston Rockets’ general manager, in support of Hong
Kong’s pro-democracy protests, Chinese stores pulled Rockets-branded
products from their shelves, and China Central Television stopped
broadcasting nba games. Cctv announced, “We believe that any re-
marks that challenge national sovereignty and social stability are not
within the scope of freedom of speech.” Beijing effectively signaled
that it believed it had the right to control the speech of any individual
anywhere in the world. Shortly thereafter, Beijing expelled several
Wall Street Journal reporters in response to an opinion piece the news-
paper published with a title describing China as the “Sick Man of Asia.”
And perhaps as a sign of how such policies might evolve, a government
office in Beijing proposed in 2020 that any criticism of traditional Chi-
nese medicine—one of Xi’s special interests—should be made illegal.
Chinese coercion is most effective in shaping the behavior of indi-
vidual actors. Many multinational corporations eventually succumb
to Chinese pressure and adjust the way they conduct business. Some,
however, quietly attempt to maintain their principles, even while ap-
pearing to acquiesce to Chinese demands. In the airline industry, for
example, some airlines have dropped Taiwan from their websites but
still identify it separately from mainland China and quote ticket prices
in Taiwan’s currency instead of in yuan. Also important, China has
overwhelmingly failed in its attempts to use its economic leverage to
compel countries such as the Philippines and South Korea, among
others, to change their policies on issues such as competition in the
South China Sea and the deployment of the U.S.-made Terminal
High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, missile system. Beijing also
failed in its effort to short-circuit Canada’s judicial process concerning

the detention of Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of the
Chinese telecommunications firm Huawei, by imprisoning two Cana-
dian citizens as political leverage. Ultimately, Meng spent almost
three years under house arrest before her case was settled.
TUGGING ON THE REINS

Chinese centrality on the global stage emanates overwhelmingly from
its economic wherewithal—its position as a driver of global growth
and trade and the opportunity it affords to other countries for access
to its vast market. Increasingly, however, Xi’s initiatives are raising
questions about how China’s economy will engage with the rest of the
world. His tenure has been marked by a series of policies, such as
Made in China 2025, that enhance government control and work to
insulate the Chinese economy from outside competition. In 2020, Xi
articulated an economic paradigm of “dual circulation,” envisioning a
largely self-sufficient China that could innovate, manufacture, and
consume—all within its own economy. It would continue to engage
with the international economy through exports, its critical supply
chains, and limited imports of capital and know-how. Within China,
Xi has also significantly enhanced the control of the ccp over the
decision-making power of Chinese companies.
These moves away from greater economic reform and opening have
introduced a new set of issues in Beijing’s relations with the rest of
the world. Many countries no longer have confidence in the indepen-
dence of Chinese companies from the government and are now tight-
ening the access that Chinese firms have to their markets and
increasing export controls on sensitive technologies to Chinese com-
panies. Beijing’s coercive use of ppe early in the pandemic also raised
alarm bells over dependence on Chinese supply chains, leading coun-
tries to encourage their companies to return home or move to friend-
lier pastures. The allure of the Chinese economy as both a market and
a leader in global trade and investment remains strong, but Xi’s poli-
cies are diminishing, rather than enhancing, the type of consistency
and predictability that economic actors desire when they consider
where to invest their time and capital, and they are therefore raising a
new set of challenges for Xi’s vision of Chinese centrality.
Xi also seeks to exert greater control in the existing international
architecture of global institutions. He has called openly and repeatedly

Elizabeth Economy
for China to lead in the reform of the global governance system—to

transform the values and norms that underpin the international system
to align with those of China. He and other Chinese officials argue that
the current rules-based order does not adequately reflect China’s voice
or that of the developing world. Instead, it was created and perpetu-
ated for the advantage of a small number of liberal democracies. Xi
wants the values and norms embedded in these institutions to reflect
instead Chinese preferences, such as elevating the right to develop-
ment over individual political and civil rights and establishing techni-
cal standards that enable state control over the flow of information.
China’s approach is both tactical and strategic. Chinese officials are
primed to assert Chinese national interests even if they are at cross-
purposes with the interests of the international institutions in which
they serve. In 2020, the Twitter account of the International Civil Avia-
tion Organization, for example, blocked users who supported icao
membership for Taiwan. In another instance, Dolkun Isa, one of the
world’s leading Uyghur activists, was physically prevented from speak-
ing before the un Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues in 2017. Wu
Hongbo, the Chinese official serving as undersecretary-general for the
un Department of Economic and Social Affairs, later appeared on Chi-
nese television to claim responsibility for blocking Isa’s appearance, not-
ing, “We have to strongly defend the motherland’s interests.” Similarly,
in 2019, the French newspaper Le Monde reported that Beijing had
threatened to block agricultural exports from Brazil and Uruguay if the
two countries did not support the Chinese candidate for director general
of the Food and Agriculture Organization.
Xi is also committed to a long-term strategy to transform broader
global norms in areas such as Internet governance, human rights, and
technical standards in ways that elevate state control over individual
rights and liberties. In each of these areas, China has sought to secure
leadership positions for Chinese officials or other friendly actors in the
relevant institutions and supporting committees, flooded meetings with
Chinese participants, and poured financial resources into trying to shape
the agendas and outcomes of policy debates. Over time, the strategy has
paid off. For example, Chinese proposals that advocate state control of
the flow of information to every network-connected device are under
active development and consideration at the United Nations.
Xi has, furthermore, signaled his intention to lead in the develop-
ment of norms in areas where they are not yet fully established, such
as space, the maritime domain, and the Arctic. In the case of the Arc-
tic, Xi has already moved aggressively to try to enhance China’s role
in determining the region’s future. Despite being 900 miles away
from the Arctic Circle, China has provided training and financial sup-
port for thousands of Chinese researchers on Arctic-related topics,
supported joint research and exploration with Arctic countries, built
a fleet of state-of-the-art icebreakers, and funded research stations in
several Arctic countries. Among the observer countries to the govern-
ing Arctic Council, China is overwhelmingly the most active, hosting
scientific conferences, submitting papers for review, and volunteering
to serve on scientific committees. Xi has attempted to assert China’s
rights in the decision-making process around the Arctic by referring
to China as a “near Arctic power” and reframing the Arctic as an issue
of the global commons, necessitating negotiations among a broad ar-
ray of countries. But as with other areas of Chinese foreign policy,
assertiveness here comes with a price. Although China has made
strides in inserting itself into the development of norms around the
Arctic, it has also lost ground as Arctic countries have become less
inclined to accept Chinese investment as the result of concerns over
potential security risks.
Xi’s more activist approach has also sparked new interest among
many countries in bolstering the current rules-based order. Countries
have coalesced, for example, to prevent un agencies and programs
from automatically supporting the inclusion of the bri in their mission
statements or initiatives. They are rallying to support candidates for
leadership in un agencies and other multilateral institutions who will
bring a strong commitment to openness, transparency, and the rule of
law. And they are drawing attention to cases in which China appears to
be unduly influencing or undermining best practices, such as the World
Health Organization’s initial reluctance to address China’s lack of
transparency during the first month of the covid-19 pandemic.
SACRIFICING THE WAR TO WIN THE BATTLE

China’s desire to rearrange the world order is an ambitious one. The
United States’ leadership on the global stage, its democratic alliance
system, and the post–World War II liberal international order are
deeply entrenched. Still, Chinese officials argue that the last two cen-
turies, when China was not the dominant global economy, were a his-
torical aberration. They claim that U.S. leadership is waning. As He

Elizabeth Economy
Yafei, former vice minister of foreign affairs, has asserted, “The end of
Pax Americana, or the American Century, is in sight.” Chinese leaders
and many international observers express confidence that Beijing is
well along the path to success. The renowned Fudan University scholar
Shen Dingli has characterized China as occupying the “moral high
ground” in the international community and acting as “the leading
country in the new era.” Xi himself has described China’s rejuvenation
as “a historic inevitability.”
There is reason for Xi’s optimism. China has clearly made progress
in each of the dimensions that he has identified as essential for reform,
and the reputation and influence of the United States have been bat-
tered by domestic strife and a lack of leadership on the global stage.
Yet it appears equally plausible, if not more so, that China has won
a few battles but is losing the war. Xi’s bullish assessment of China’s
pandemic response may resonate at home, but the international com-
munity retains vivid memories of Beijing’s bullying diplomacy, coer-
cive ppe practices, military aggression, repression in Hong Kong and
Xinjiang, and continued belligerence around determining the origins
of the virus. Xi wants China to be “credible, lovable, and respectable”
in the eyes of the international community, but his actions have
yielded public opinion polls that reflect record-low levels of trust in
him and little desire for Chinese leadership. Many initiatives to ce-
ment Chinese centrality, such as the bri, the Confucius Institutes,
and global governance leadership, are now sputtering or stalling as the
full economic and political costs of acquiescence to Chinese leader-
ship become clear to the rest of the world.
The international community might also be forgiven for wonder-
ing what beyond centrality Xi desires. He has made clear that he
wants China to play a dominant role in defining the rules that gov-
ern the international system. But as the United States retreated
from global leadership during Donald Trump’s presidency, Xi
proved unwilling or unable to step into the United States’ shoes to
marshal the international community to respond to global challenges
or to serve as the world’s policeman. China may simply want to en-
joy the rights, but not the full responsibilities, that traditionally
accrue to the world’s most important power.
Xi’s ambition for Chinese centrality on the global stage holds little
attraction for much of the rest of the world, and in the current context
of mounting international opposition, his outright success appears un-
likely. Yet if Xi perceives that his strategy is unraveling, the result for
the international community could be as challenging as if he were to
succeed. In recent months, Xi has alarmed global leaders by cracking
down on China’s world-class technology sector, eradicating the last ves-
tiges of democracy in Hong Kong,
and flexing China’s military muscles
through a hypersonic missile test. And Xi’s ambition holds little
the potential looms large for further, attraction for much of the
even more destabilizing actions, such rest of the world.
as resorting to the use of force to unify
with Taiwan. Xi has not articulated a
peaceful path forward for unification with the island nation, and he has
already demonstrated a willingness to engage in risky military behavior
in the East China and South China Seas and on the border with India.
Faced with significant international headwinds, Xi has responded by
raising the stakes. He appears unwilling to moderate his ambition, ex-
cept in areas that do not compromise his core political and strategic
priorities, such as climate change. An optimal—although still un-
likely—outcome would be for Xi to engage in a series of internal ongo-
ing and implicit tradeoffs: claim regional economic leadership but step
back from military aggression in the region, take pride in arresting the
spread of covid-19 but acknowledge the weakness of Chinese vaccine
innovation, trumpet success in eliminating terrorist attacks in Xinjiang
but begin the process of releasing the “reeducated” Uyghur Muslims
from the labor camps. This would enable Xi to maintain a narrative of
success in advancing Chinese centrality while nonetheless responding
to the most significant concerns of the international community.
Whether Xi is able to realize his ambition will depend on the inter-
play of many factors, such as the continued vitality of the Chinese
economy and military and the support of other senior leaders and the
Chinese people, on the one hand, and the ability of the world to con-
tinue to resist Chinese coercion and the capacity of the world’s democ-
racies and others to articulate and pursue their own compelling vision
of the world’s future, on the other. Perhaps most important to Xi’s
success, however, will be his ability to recognize and address the vast
disconnect between what he wants to deliver to the world and what the
world wants delivered from him.∂

Green Upheaval
The New Geopolitics of Energy
I
t is not hard to understand why people dream of a future defined
by clean energy. As greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow and
as extreme weather events become more frequent and harmful, the
current efforts to move beyond fossil fuels appear woefully inadequate.
Adding to the frustration, the geopolitics of oil and gas are alive and
well—and as fraught as ever. Europe is in the throes of a full-fledged
energy crisis, with staggering electricity prices forcing businesses across
the continent to shutter and energy firms to declare bankruptcy, posi-
tioning Russian President Vladimir Putin to take advantage of his
neighbors’ struggles by leveraging his country’s natural gas reserves. In
September, blackouts reportedly led Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng
to instruct his country’s state-owned energy companies to secure sup-
plies for winter at any cost. And as oil prices surge above $80 per barrel,
the United States and other energy-hungry countries are pleading with
major producers, including Saudi Arabia, to ramp up their output, giv-
ing Riyadh more clout in a newly tense relationship and suggesting the
limits of Washington’s energy “independence.”
Proponents of clean energy hope (and sometimes promise) that in
addition to mitigating climate change, the energy transition will help
make tensions over energy resources a thing of the past. It is true that
clean energy will transform geopolitics—just not necessarily in the
JASON BORDOFF is Co-Founding Dean of the Columbia Climate School and Founding
Director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of Interna-
tional and Public Affairs. During the Obama administration, he served as Special Assistant
to the President and Senior Director for Energy and Climate Change on the staff of the
National Security Council.
MEGHAN L. O’SULLIVAN is Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International

Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School and the author of Windfall: How the New Energy
Abundance Upends Global Politics and Strengthens America’s Power. During the George W.
Bush administration, she served as Special Assistant to the President and Deputy National
Security Adviser for Iraq and Afghanistan.
Green Upheaval
ways many of its champions expect. The transition will reconfigure

many elements of international politics that have shaped the global
system since at least World War II, significantly affecting the sources
of national power, the process of globalization, relations among the
great powers, and the ongoing economic convergence of developed
countries and developing ones. The process will be messy at best. And
far from fostering comity and cooperation, it will likely produce new
forms of competition and confrontation long before a new, more co-
pacetic geopolitics takes shape.
Talk of a smooth transition to clean energy is fanciful: there is no
way that the world can avoid major upheavals as it remakes the entire
energy system, which is the lifeblood of the global economy and un-
derpins the geopolitical order. Moreover, the conventional wisdom
about who will gain and who will lose is frequently off base. The so-
called petrostates, for example, may enjoy feasts before they suffer
famines, because dependence on the dominant suppliers of fossil fu-
els, such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, will most likely rise before it
falls. And the poorest parts of the world will need to use vast quanti-
ties of energy—far more than in the past—to prosper even as they
also face the worst consequences of climate change. Meanwhile, clean
energy will come to represent a new source of national power but will
itself introduce new risks and uncertainties.
These are not arguments to slow or abandon the energy transi-
tion. On the contrary, countries around the world must accelerate
efforts to combat climate change. But these are arguments to en-
courage policymakers to look beyond the challenges of climate
change itself and to appreciate the risks and dangers that will result
from the jagged transition to clean energy. More consequential right
now than the long-term geopolitical implications of a distant net-
zero world are the sometimes counterintuitive short-term perils that
will arrive in the next few decades, as the new geopolitics of clean
energy combines with the old geopolitics of oil and gas. A failure to
appreciate the unintended consequences of various efforts to reach
net zero will not only have security and economic implications; it
will also undermine the energy transition itself. If people come to
believe that ambitious plans to tackle climate change endanger en-
ergy reliability or affordability or the security of energy supplies, the
transition will slow. Fossil fuels might eventually fade. The poli-
tics—and geopolitics—of energy will not.

PERSISTENT PETROSTATES
World War I transformed oil into a strategic commodity. In 1918, the
British statesman Lord Curzon famously said that the Allied cause
had “floated to victory upon a wave of oil.” From that point forward,
British security depended far more on oil from Persia than it did on
coal from Newcastle, as energy became a source of national power and
its absence a strategic vulnerability. In the century that followed,
countries blessed with oil and gas resources developed their societies
and wielded outsize power in the international system, and countries
where the demand for oil outpaced its production contorted their for-
eign policies to ensure continued access to it.
A move away from oil and gas will reconfigure the world just as dra-
matically. But discussions about the shape of a clean energy future too
often skip over some important details. For one thing, even when the
world achieves net-zero emissions, it will hardly mean the end of fossil
fuels. A landmark report published in 2021 by the International Energy
Agency (IEA) projected that if the world reached net zero by 2050—as
the un Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned is nec-
essary to avoid raising average global temperatures by more than 1.5
degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and thus prevent the worst
impacts of climate change—it would still be using nearly half as much
natural gas as today and about one-quarter as much oil. A recent analysis
carried out by a team of researchers at Princeton University similarly
found that if the United States reached net zero by 2050, it would still
be using a total of one-quarter to one-half as much gas and oil as it does
today. That would be a vast reduction. But oil and gas producers would
continue to enjoy decades of leverage from their geologic troves.
Traditional suppliers will benefit from the volatility in fossil fuel
prices that will inevitably result from a rocky energy transition. The
combination of pressure on investors to divest from fossil fuels and
uncertainty about the future of oil is already raising concerns that in-
vestment levels may plummet in the coming years, leading oil sup-
plies to decline faster than demand falls—or to decline even as demand
continues to rise, as it is doing today. That outcome would produce
periodic shortages and hence higher and more volatile oil prices. This
situation would boost the power of the petrostates by increasing their
revenue and giving extra clout to opec, whose members, including
Saudi Arabia, control most of the world’s spare capacity and can ramp
global oil production up or down in short order.
Green Upheaval
A rare opportunity: mining for coltan in North Kivu, Congo, September 2013
In addition, the transition to clean energy will wind up augmenting
the influence of some oil and gas exporters by concentrating global
production in fewer hands. Eventually, the demand for oil will decline
significantly, but it will remain substantial for decades to come. Many
high-cost producers, such as those in Canada and Russia’s Arctic ter-
ritory, could be priced out of the market as demand (and, presumably,
the price of oil) falls. Other oil-producing countries that seek to be
leaders when it comes to climate change—such as Norway, the United
Kingdom, and the United States—could in the future constrain their
domestic output in response to rising public pressure and to hasten
the transition away from fossil fuels. As a result, oil producers such as
MARC O G UAL A Z Z I N I / C O N T R AS T O / R E D U X
the Gulf states—which have very cheap, low-carbon oil, are less de-
pendent on the financial institutions now shying away from oil, and
will face little pressure to limit production—could see their market
shares increase. Providing more or nearly all of the oil the world con-
sumes would imbue them with outsize geopolitical clout, at least until
oil use declines more markedly. Other countries whose oil industries
might endure are those whose resources can be brought online
quickly—such as Argentina and the United States, which boast large
deposits of shale oil—and that can thereby attract investors who seek

faster payback periods and may shy away from longer-cycle oil invest-
ments given the uncertainties about oil’s long-term outlook.
An even more intense version of this dynamic will play out in natu-
ral gas markets. As the world starts to use less natural gas, the market
shares of the small number of players that can produce it most cheaply
and most cleanly will rise, particularly if countries taking strong cli-
mate action decide to curb their own output. For Europe, this will
mean increased dependence on Russian gas, especially with the advent
of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline connecting Russia to Germany. Today’s
calls from European lawmakers for Russia to increase its gas output to
avoid an energy crisis this winter are a reminder that Moscow’s impor-
tance to Europe’s energy security will rise before it declines.
POWER FROM POWER

In order to understand the geopolitics of a world moving away from
fossil fuels, it is critical to grasp which elements of being a clean energy
superpower will actually yield geopolitical influence. Here, too, reality
differs from the conventional wisdom, and the transition process will
look very different from the end state. In the long run, innovation and
cheap capital will determine who wins the clean energy revolution.
Countries with both those attributes will dominate in at least four ways.
One source of dominance—the power to set standards for clean
energy—will be more subtle than the geopolitical power that came
with oil resources but just as enduring. Internationally, a country or
company that sets global standards for equipment specifications or
norms of engagement maintains a competitive advantage over others.
For example, Australia, Chile, Japan, and Saudi Arabia have emerged
as early adopters in trading low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia across
borders and thus may be able to set infrastructure standards and cer-
tification norms for those fuel sources, giving their favored technolo-
gies and equipment an edge. And for technologies that involve vast
quantities of data, such as digital tools that optimize electric grids or
manage consumer demand, whoever defines the standards not only
will be able to export compatible domestic systems but also may be
able to mine data from them.
Standard setting will be particularly important when it comes to
nuclear energy. According to the IEA, global nuclear energy generation
will need to double between now and 2050 for the world to achieve
net-zero emissions. As of 2018, of the 72 nuclear reactors planned or
2022-Jan-Feb-FA-Vtl-4C_Foreign Affairs 11/18/21 12:24 PM Page 1
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under construction outside Russia’s borders, more than 50 percent

were being built by Russian companies and around 20 percent by Chi-
nese ones; fewer than two percent were being built by U.S. companies.
This will increasingly enable Moscow and Beijing to influence norms
regarding nuclear nonproliferation and
impose new operational and safety
Moving to a net-zero standards designed to give their own
global economy will lead to companies a lasting leg up in a sector
conflicts—and ultimately that will need to grow as the energy
produce winners and losers. transition unfolds.
A second source of dominance in a
clean energy world will be control of
the supply chain for minerals such as cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel,
and rare earths, which are critical to various clean energy technolo-
gies, including wind turbines and electric vehicles. Here, the analogy
to oil power holds, to an extent. According to the IEA, should the
world begin to move with haste toward a more sustainable energy
mix, demand for such substances will far outstrip what is readily avail-
able today; in the agency’s estimation, a world on track for net-zero
emissions in 2050 will by 2040 need six times as much of them as it
does today. Meanwhile, global trade in critical minerals will skyrocket,
from around ten percent of energy-related trade to roughly 50 percent
by 2050. So over the course of the transition, the small number of
countries that supply the vast majority of critical minerals will enjoy
newfound influence. Today, a single country accounts for more than
half the global supply of cobalt (the Democratic Republic of the
Congo, or drc), half the supply of lithium (Australia), and half the
supply of rare earths (China). By contrast, the world’s three largest oil
producers—Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States—each ac-
count for just ten percent of the world’s global oil production. Whereas
smaller, poorer countries, such as the drc, may be hesitant to use their
mineral strength to exert pressure on more powerful countries, China
has already demonstrated its willingness to do so. China’s embargo on
the export of critical minerals to Japan in 2010, in the context of rising
tensions in the East China Sea, could be a sign of things to come.
China’s control over the inputs for many clean energy technologies
is not limited to its mining prowess; it has an even more dominant role
in the processing and refining of critical minerals. At least for the next
decade, these realities will give China real and perceived economic and
Green Upheaval
geopolitical power. Yet in the long term, this influence will wane. The
oil price spikes of the 1970s led new players to search for new sources
of oil; the mere prospect of political manipulation of scarce minerals is
producing the same phenomenon. Moreover, such minerals can be re-
cycled, and substitutes for them will also materialize.
The third element of clean energy dominance will be the ability to
cheaply manufacture components for new technologies. This will not
confer the same advantages as possessing oil or gas resources has, how-
ever. China, for example, accounts for the manufacturing of two-thirds
of the world’s polysilicon and 90 percent of the semiconductor “wa-
fers” used to make solar power cells. By suddenly removing these items
from global supply chains, China could create major bottlenecks. But
inputs for clean energy products that produce or store energy are not
the same as the energy itself. If China did restrict exports of solar pan-
els or batteries, the lights would not go out. China would not be able
to bring economies to a standstill overnight or put the well-being and
safety of citizens at risk—as Russia did when it curtailed natural gas
exports to Europe during the frigid winters of 2006 and 2009.
To be sure, China’s actions would create disruption, dislocation,
and inflation akin to the effects of the delays in computer chip exports
throughout 2021. Such turmoil could stall the energy transition if it
encouraged consumers to turn back to gasoline vehicles or cancel
plans to install rooftop solar panels. Yet even if China adopted that
tactic, over time, markets would respond, and other countries and
companies would generate their own substitute products or supplies—
in a way that is much harder to do with a natural resource available
only in certain locations, such as oil.
A final way in which a country could become a clean energy super-
power is through the production and export of low-carbon fuels. These
fuels—especially hydrogen and ammonia—will be critical to the transi-
tion to a net-zero world given their potential role in decarbonizing
hard-to-electrify sectors, such as steel production; fueling trucks, ships,
and other heavy vehicles; and balancing grids supplied primarily by
renewable sources of energy that can experience intermittent disrup-
tions. The IAE’s “net zero by 2050” scenario anticipates that trade in
hydrogen and ammonia will rise from almost nothing today to more
than one-third of all energy-related transactions. Over time, hydrogen
supplies are projected to consist mostly of green hydrogen produced in
places with abundant, low-cost renewable energy, such as Chile and the

Gulf states, which have vast quantities of cheap solar energy. In this
way, some of the petrostates threatened by the move away from fossil
fuels may be able to transform themselves into “electrostates.”
If a well-supplied and diversified market for hydrogen and ammo-
nia eventually develops, a gap in one location can be offset with sup-
plies from another, much as with oil today. This will limit the
geopolitical influence of dominant suppliers. In the near to the me-
dium term, however, the evolving production and trade of low-carbon
fuels will create tensions and geopolitical risks. Much as was true of
the nascent global market for liquefied natural gas decades ago, the
supply of low-carbon fuels will at first be dominated by a small num-
ber of producers. As a result, if a country such as Japan bets on hydro-
gen and ammonia and depends heavily on just one or two countries
for its supply of fuel, it may face outsize energy security risks.
The dominant suppliers of low-carbon fuels will also evolve over
time. Before green hydrogen (or ammonia, which is easier to trans-
port and can be converted back to hydrogen) becomes dominant,
“blue” hydrogen will likely prevail, according to the IEA. Blue hydro-
gen is made from natural gas using carbon capture technology to
reduce emissions. Countries with cheap gas and good carbon dioxide
storage capacity, such as Qatar and the United States, may emerge as
some of the top exporters of blue hydrogen or ammonia. For coun-
tries that lack natural gas but have the capacity to store carbon diox-
ide underground, the cheapest way to get hydrogen—which is hard
to transport over long distances—may well be to import natural gas
and then convert it into hydrogen close to where it will be used, thus
presenting some of the same risks and dependencies that natural gas
presents today. And worst off will be countries that lack both gas and
storage capacity, such as South Korea, and so will have to import
blue hydrogen, green hydrogen, and ammonia; these countries will
remain vulnerable until a much larger and more diversified market
for hydrogen and ammonia develops.
GREENER BUT LESS GLOBAL

A net-zero global economy will require large supply chains for clean
energy components and manufactured products, trade in low-carbon
fuels and critical minerals, and continued trade (albeit much smaller
than today) in oil and gas. At first blush, then, a decarbonized world
might seem likely to be more globalized than today’s fossil-fuel
Green Upheaval
dependent planet. But getting to that net-zero world will generate

three forces that will push against globalization.
First, a decarbonized world will rely more on electricity—and a
more electricity-reliant world will see less global trade in energy. The
IEA has projected that in a net-zero world of 2050, total energy-related
trade will be only 38 percent of what it would be if the world were to
stay on its current trajectory. The cheapest and easiest way to decar-
bonize several sectors of the economy, such as cars that run on oil
products or heat generated by burning natural gas, is often to electrify
them and ensure that the electricity is generated from zero-carbon
sources. For this reason, total electricity usage in the United States
will likely be two to four times as great in a fully decarbonized econ-
omy as compared with today, according to the Princeton researchers.
And compared with oil and gas, decarbonized electricity is much more
likely to be produced locally or regionally; less than three percent of
global electricity was traded across borders in 2018, compared with
two-thirds of global oil supplies in 2014. That is because electricity is
harder and more expensive to transport over long distances, notwith-
standing the evolution of high-voltage, direct-current transmission
technology. Dependence on imported electricity also creates more en-
ergy security concerns for a country than, say, dependence on im-
ported oil, since electricity is much harder to stockpile and store in
the case of supply disruptions or to import from other sources.
Additional pressure against globalization will come from the fact
that clean energy is already contributing to the trend toward protec-
tionism. Countries around the world are erecting barriers to cheap
clean energy inputs from abroad, fearing dependence on other coun-
tries and seeking to build job-generating industries within their own
borders. A prominent example of this is the customs duties and tariffs
that India is placing on Chinese solar panels in order to nurture its
own domestic solar industry. In a similar vein, the U.S. Congress is
considering a tax credit that would favor companies that manufacture
electric vehicles in the United States with union labor. And interna-
tional efforts to eliminate obstacles to trade in environmental goods,
such as wind turbines and solar panels, have stalled.
Finally, countries taking strong steps toward decarbonization may
try to compel others to follow suit through economic statecraft—which
in turn might lead to global fragmentation. For instance, policymakers
in the eu are intent on instituting border adjustment mechanisms re-

lated to greenhouse gas emissions by 2023. Under this policy, goods

imported from countries that do not match the eu’s climate standards
will be subject to tariff-like fees intended to equalize the price of goods
based on their carbon content. That way, “green” steel made in Europe,
for example, will not be disadvantaged in the European market relative
to “dirty” imported steel. Over time, however, tariffs aimed at leveling
the playing field might morph into tariffs aimed at pressuring countries
considered too slow in decarbonizing to pursue stronger climate poli-
cies. And although the idea of using sanctions to compel speedier decar-
bonization may seem over the top now, in a world in which carbon
emitters are increasingly seen as threats to international peace and secu-
rity, sanctions could become a common tool to force laggards to act.
WINNERS AND LOSERS

Moving to a net-zero global economy will require an unprecedented
level of global cooperation but will also lead to conflict along the way and
ultimately produce winners and losers. Some great powers, such as China
and the United States, are well positioned to benefit from the transition.
Others, such as Russia, seem more likely to wind up worse off. These
diverging paths will, of course, alter relations among the great powers.
The relationship between Beijing and Washington is more fraught
now than it has been in decades. Thus far, cooperation between the
two powers on climate change has been minimal, notwithstanding
a last-minute agreement to work together on the issue that they
reached at the COP26 (26th Conference of the Parties) meeting in
Glasgow this past fall. If recent developments—such as Chinese Pres-
ident Xi Jinping’s failure to attend the Glasgow meeting in person,
China’s lackluster revision of its climate targets, and Beijing’s soften-
ing on coal policy in the face of recent gas shortages—are indicative
of a trend, China and the United States could increasingly clash over
climate change, which may then sap the political will of other coun-
tries to take strong climate action.
The transition to clean energy seems likely to become yet another
sphere in which the two countries compete aggressively over technology,
talent, supplies, markets, and standards. That competition may accelerate
the pace of clean energy deployment, but it will also fuel tensions be-
tween the two great powers. China will increasingly assert its power, le-
veraging its dominant position in clean energy manufacturing and its
control of critical minerals. As the transition progresses, however, China’s
Green Upheaval
influence may wane as new technologies emerge elsewhere, supply chains

shift, and more plentiful materials are used to produce clean energy.
Another great-power relationship that the energy transition might
transform is that between the United States and its European allies. At
a time when transatlantic relations require repair and rejuvenation,
climate policy could potentially act as a powerful bonding agent.
Washington and its partners in Eu-
rope could ultimately use their collec-
tive economic and diplomatic power
Getting to a net-zero world
to spur decarbonization around the will generate forces that
world; they might form a “climate will push against
club” of countries committed to net-
zero emissions that would impose tar-
globalization.
iffs on imports from outside the
club—as advocated in these pages by the Nobel Prize–winning econo-
mist William Nordhaus in 2020. They could also put in place joint
mechanisms to decarbonize the most energy-intensive industries, such
as steel, cement, and aluminum, and even repurpose nato to focus on
responding to climate-related environmental and security disasters.
Yet in the short term, the road to a net-zero world may not be
smooth for U.S.-European relations. Washington’s convoluted cli-
mate politics require tortured policy approaches, such as trying to use
congressional budget reconciliation to overcome Republican opposi-
tion to stringent emission standards and carbon taxes and relying
solely on carrots (such as subsidies) rather than sticks to change cor-
porate and consumer conduct. This will make it difficult to harmonize
policies across the Atlantic and risks exacerbating trade tensions as
Europe commits to measures such as carbon border tariffs.
Finally, the energy transition will inevitably transform Russia’s re-
lations with the other major powers. Russia is highly dependent on oil
and gas exports, and in the long term, the clean energy transition will
pose significant risks to its finances and influence. In the messy tran-
sition, however, Russia’s position vis-à-vis the United States and Eu-
rope may grow stronger before it weakens. As European countries
come to increasingly depend on Russian gas in the coming years and
as volatility in the oil market rises, both the United States and Europe
will count on Russia to keep prices in check through its partnership
with Saudi Arabia as leaders of the OPEC+ alliance, which is made up
of the members of OPEC and ten other major oil-exporting countries.

Meanwhile, Russia’s largely dismissive approach to climate change

will become a growing source of tension in Moscow’s relations with
Washington and Brussels—even though Putin’s recent rhetoric has
become more climate-friendly. And in a decarbonized world that is
increasingly electrified and interconnected digitally via the Internet
of Things, Russia may find it hard to resist targeting energy infra-
structure with cyberattacks, as it did when it took down Ukraine’s
electric grid in 2015 and 2016. Moreover, as traditional energy con-
sumers in the West curb their fossil fuel use, Russia will increasingly
turn to the Chinese market to offload its supplies, fostering the geo-
political alignment of Moscow and Beijing.
FROM CONVERGENCE TO DIVERGENCE

For the past 30 years, rates of growth in the developing world have
on the whole exceeded those in the developed world, fueling a
gradual economic convergence of rich countries and poor ones. In
the long run, the transition to clean energy promises to reinforce
that trend. Although a net-zero world will still entail hardships, it
will also mean far less pain for developing countries than a world of
unchecked climate change. Moreover, many developing countries
enjoy abundant, low-cost clean energy resources, such as solar
power, which they will be able to use at home or export as either
electricity or fuels. A fair number also boast geologic formations
excellent for storing carbon dioxide that will need to be removed
from the atmosphere. (According to some estimates, one-fifth of
the reduction in carbon dioxide necessary to achieve net-zero emis-
sions will come from carbon removal.)
The rocky pathway to decarbonization, however, also poses serious
risks for developing countries. The rift between rich and poor nations
was on full display at the climate meeting in Glasgow. Lower-income
countries were emphatic in their calls for industrialized nations to pay
for the damage their historical greenhouse gas emissions have caused.
Climate change is the result of cumulative carbon emissions over time.
One-quarter of total emissions from the beginning of the industrial
age until now have come from the United States, and nearly as much,
from Europe. A mere two percent has come from the entire continent
of Africa. As rich countries feel an increased urgency to slash carbon
emissions and developing countries remain focused on the need to
deliver growth to their citizens, the two groups are set to clash.
Green Upheaval
There was also evidence of tension over the fate of the $100 billion
in aid to poor countries that rich countries pledged at the 2009 Co-
penhagen climate summit to deliver by 2020. That commitment re-
mains unfulfilled—and even that large sum is a rounding error
compared with the roughly $1 trillion to $2 trillion needed annually
in clean energy investment in developing and emerging-market econ-
omies to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. As the urgency of decar-
bonization increases along with the costs of climate change, the failure
of rich countries to assist poor ones will be a growing source of geo-
political tension—particularly as developing countries disproportion-
ately bear the brunt of damage they did not cause.
Given how long the world has waited to act on climate change,
poor countries will need to follow development trajectories different
from the one taken by rich countries; developing countries will have
to rely far less on fossil fuels. Yet nearly 800 million people lack access
to any energy services, much less the amount of energy needed to
drive meaningful levels of economic growth and industrialization. Al-
though solar power, wind, and other renewable sources of energy can
be an excellent way to meet some of the needs of the developing
world, they are currently insufficient to power industrialization and
other paths to growth, and there are limits to how quickly they can be
scaled up. Some developing countries will also face obstacles that
rarely crop up in rich countries. For example, charging an electric car
may not be viable in countries that experience blackouts every day or
where electric grids are backed up by diesel generators.
If rich countries increasingly seek to prevent the use of fossil fuels
and developing ones see few viable, affordable alternatives to them,
the gap between the rich and the poor will only widen. For instance,
last April, the U.S. Treasury Department announced that the United
States would no longer finance natural gas projects overseas because
of climate change concerns—except in the poorest of countries, such
as Sierra Leone—even though 60 percent of U.S. electricity still
comes from fossil fuels. Shortly thereafter, Nigerian Vice President
Yemi Osinbajo argued in Foreign Affairs that it was unfair to ask his
country to develop without using natural gas.
Tensions between developed countries and developing ones will es-
calate not only over the use of fossil fuels but also over their produc-
tion. Several of the world’s poor countries, such as Guyana, Mozambique,
and Tanzania, have significant hydrocarbon resources they would like

to tap. But rich countries that see themselves as climate leaders will
increasingly pressure those and other developing countries, or the
companies that want to partner with them, not to drill, even as at least
some of those rich countries continue to extract their own oil, gas, and
coal. And financial institutions will face growing pressure from activ-
ists not to support extractive projects in the developing world. In a
world with less and less scope for fossil fuel usage, poor countries may
understandably ask why they should not be allowed to have a larger
slice of a shrinking pie.
HOW TO LOWER THE RISKS

The clean energy transition demands a complete transformation of the
global economy and will require roughly $100 trillion in additional
capital spending over the next three decades. There is little reason to
expect that such a radical overhaul can be completed in a coordinated,
well-managed, and smooth way. An orderly transition would be hard
enough if there were a master planner designing the highly intercon-
nected global energy system—and, needless to say, there is not.
When the world does achieve a fully, or even mostly, decarbonized
energy system, many of today’s energy security risks will be signifi-
cantly ameliorated (even as some new ones arise). The influence of
the petrostates and Russia’s leverage in Europe will be diminished,
prices for renewable electricity will be less volatile, and conflicts over
natural resources will wane. But if on the way to that end state, the
affordability, reliability, or security of the supply of energy, or other
national security imperatives, comes into conflict with ambitious re-
sponses to climate change, there is a significant risk that environmen-
tal concerns will take a back seat. International climate leadership
thus requires far more than just negotiating climate agreements, mak-
ing promises to decarbonize, and mitigating the national security im-
plications of the severe impacts of climate change. It also means
lowering, in a variety of ways, the economic and geopolitical risks
posed by even a successful transition to clean energy.
First, policymakers need to expand their toolkits to increase energy
security and reliability and prepare for inevitable volatility. For starters,
it would be shortsighted to scrap an existing zero-carbon energy source
that can operate consistently—namely nuclear power. And it would be
foolish to get rid of existing energy security tools, such as the U.S. Stra-
tegic Petroleum Reserve; Congress has prematurely decided to put fuel
Green Upheaval
from the reserve up for sale in response to near-term U.S. oil abundance
and in anticipation of a post-oil world. Indeed, as the energy transition
accelerates, policymakers should undertake cost-benefit analyses to as-
sess whether additional strategic stockpiles may be justified in order to
secure supplies of natural gas, critical minerals, hydrogen, and ammonia.
Policymakers should also maintain
maximum flexibility on energy sources The transition to clean
even as they phase out “brown” energy.
Arguments that the United States saw energy will exacerbate
“peak gasoline” use in 2007 and that the already deep inequalities in
world experienced “peak coal” use in society and potentially
2014 proved to be incorrect. Given the
uncertainty about future needs and de- produce a political backlash.
mands, policymakers should be pre-
pared to keep some legacy fossil fuel assets in reserve, in case they are
needed for brief periods during the transition when there is a discon-
nect between supply and demand. Regulators of utilities should adopt
pricing structures that would compensate companies for providing re-
liability. For example, in order to prepare for peaks in demand, regula-
tors should design markets that pay energy utilities for maintaining
capacity and supplies even if they are rarely used and that incentivize
utilities to offer plans that reward customers for reducing their elec-
tricity use during peak periods. More broadly, policymakers should
enact measures to increase efficiency in order to reduce demand,
thereby narrowing potential supply and demand imbalances.
Another way governments can boost energy security is by reducing
supply chain risks—but not in a way that would encourage protection-
ism. Officials shouldn’t chase the chimera of independence but instead
try to build flexibility in a diversified and interconnected system. In
Europe, improved energy security has come not from reducing Rus-
sian gas imports—indeed, those imports have consistently risen—but
rather from regulatory and infrastructure reforms that have made the
European market more integrated and competitive. In contrast, during
the 2021 power crisis in Texas, the parts of the state with grids con-
nected to those of neighboring states fared better than the rest of Texas,
which was served by an isolated electric grid and transmission system.
Policymakers must also address some of the ways in which the jag-
ged energy transition will exacerbate already deep inequalities in soci-
ety and potentially produce a political backlash against clean energy.

Communities dependent on fossil fuel revenue and jobs will suffer in

the absence of government-backed economic development and work-
force training. Meanwhile, to help low-income consumers deal with
price volatility, policymakers should turn to subsidies or temporary tax-
rate adjustments, as many European countries have in recent months.
As much as governments need to foster new innovation and accel-
erate the clean energy transition to curb climate change, they also
must take conscious steps to mitigate the geopolitical risks this change
will create. New technologies can solve technical and logistical prob-
lems but cannot eliminate competition, power differentials, or the in-
centive that all countries have to protect their interests and maximize
their influence. If governments do not recognize this, the world will
confront some jarring discontinuities in the years ahead, including
new economic and security threats that will reconfigure global poli-
tics. But perhaps the greatest risk of failing to identify and plan for
these pitfalls is that if national security concerns come into conflict
with climate change ambitions, a successful transition might not take
place at all. And the world can ill afford more bumps on the already
rough road to net zero.∂
Keeping the
Wrong Secrets
How Washington Misses the Real
Security Threat
Oona A. Hathaway
T
he United States keeps a lot of secrets. In 2017, the last year
for which there are complete data, roughly four million
Americans with security clearances classified around 50 mil-
lion documents at a cost to U.S. taxpayers of around $18 billion.
For a short time, I was one of those four million. From 2014 to 2015,
I worked for the general counsel of the Department of Defense, a posi-
tion for which I received a security clearance at the “top secret” level. I
came into the job thinking that all the classified documents I would see
would include important national security secrets accessible only to
those who had gone through an extensive background check and been
placed in a position of trust. I was shocked to discover that much of
what I read was in fact not all that different from what was available on
the Internet. There were exceptions: events I learned about a few hours
or even days before the rest of the world, for instance, and information
that could be traced to intelligence sources. But the vast bulk of the clas-
sified material I saw was remarkable only for how unremarkable it was.
The U.S. system for classifying secrets is based on the idea that
the government has access to significant information that is not
available, or at least not widely available, to private citizens or or
ganizations. Over time, however, government intelligence sources
have lost their advantage over private sources of intelligence.
Thanks to new surveillance and monitoring technologies, including
geolocation trackers, the Internet of Things, and commercial satel-
OONA A. HATHAWAY is Gerard C. and Bernice Latrobe Smith Professor of International
Law at Yale Law School.

Oona A. Hathaway
lites, private information is now often better—sometimes much

better—than the information held by governments.
At the same time, these technologies have given rise to an alto-
gether new threat: troves of personal data, many of them readily avail-
able, that can be exploited by foreign powers. Each new piece of
information, by itself, is relatively unimportant. But combined, the
pieces can give foreign adversaries unprecedented insight into the
personal lives of most Americans.
Yet the United States has not begun to adapt its system for protecting
information. It remains focused on keeping too many secrets that don’t
really matter, treating government information like the crown jewels
while leaving private data almost entirely unguarded. This overemphasis
on secrecy at the expense of privacy isn’t just inefficient. It undermines
American democracy and, increasingly, U.S. national security, as well.
EPIDEMIC OF ESPIONAGE
The U.S. government did not always keep so many secrets. At the
turn of the twentieth century, in fact, it had no formal nationwide
system of secrecy. That began to change after Japan defeated Russia in
the Russo-Japanese War of 1905, stunning Western countries and sig-
naling the rise of a new regional power in Asia capable of challenging
the major powers in Europe. Japan had long prohibited emigration,
but it had lifted this restriction in 1886, just as its military prowess
was beginning to grow. By 1908, around 150,000 Japanese immigrants
had entered the United States.
As the number of new arrivals ticked up, American newspapers began
reporting stories about “Japanese spies roaming about the Philippines,
Hawaii, and the continental United States, busily making drawings of
the location of guns, mines, and other weapons of defense,” as The
Atlanta Constitution put it in 1911. Journalists at The Courier-Journal de-
tailed a sophisticated Japanese spying operation in Los Angeles, Port-
land, and the harbors around Puget Sound, including rumors that “agents
of the Japanese War Office, in the guise of railroad section laborers or
servants in families residing in the locality, are stationed at every large
railroad bridge on the Pacific coast.” These stories were fantastic—and
likely false, for the most part, as were widespread tales of Japanese candy
store operators who were really mapmakers, Japanese fishermen who
were really taking harbor soundings, and Japanese barbers who picked
up military secrets from their unsuspecting clients.
Keeping the Wrong Secrets
Secret admirers: CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia, January 2004

Members of Congress, alarmed by the stories, decided to act. The
Defense Secrets Act, passed in 1911, was the first U.S. law to criminal-
ize spying. It provided that “whoever, . . . without proper authority,
obtains, takes, or makes, or attempts to obtain, take, or make, any
document, sketch, photograph, photographic negative, plan, model,
or knowledge of anything connected with the national defense to
which he is not entitled” could be fined or imprisoned.
After war broke out in Europe, President Woodrow Wilson ap-
peared before Congress and asked it to strengthen the laws against
sedition and the disclosure of information. His racist nativism on
full display, he declared, “There are citizens of the United States, I
blush to admit, born under other flags but welcomed under our gen-
erous naturalization laws to the full freedom and opportunity of
CHRISTOPHER MORRIS / VII / REDUX
America” who “have sought to pry into every confidential transac-

tion of the Government in order to serve interests alien to our own.”
The result was the Espionage Act of 1917—a law that, with a few
revisions, still forms the main legal basis for proscribing the unauthor-
ized disclosure of national security information in the United States.
The law was extraordinarily broad, criminalizing the disclosure of
“information respecting the national defence” that could be “used to
the injury of the United States.”

Oona A. Hathaway
Now there were rules criminalizing the disclosure of national secu-

rity secrets. But what was a secret? Historians consider the American
Expeditionary Forces’ General Order No. 64, also issued in 1917, to be
the first attempt by the U.S. government to adopt a formal classifica-
tion system for government information that had national security
value. In the years that followed, the U.S. Army and the U.S. Navy
adopted their own regulations on classified information, producing a
mishmash of classification rules across the military branches. Then, in
1940, President Franklin Roosevelt displaced this series of decentral-
ized classification rules with an executive order making it unlawful to
record “certain vital information about military or naval installations”
without permission. The rules applied to aircraft, weapons, and other
military equipment, as well as to books, pamphlets, and other docu-
ments if they were classified as “secret,” “confidential,” or “restricted.”
Since then, many presidents have issued executive orders that define
what information is classified, how it is classified, and who can access it.
The latest comprehensive executive order, issued by President Barack
Obama in 2009, lays out three levels of classification—top secret, secret,
and confidential—along with a vast array of rules about what each level
of classification means. Under the order, classified documents originate
in two ways: one of the 1,867 officials designated as having “original
classification authority” decides that a document should be classified or
one of the four million or so individuals with access to classified mate-
rial creates a new document using information that was already classi-
fied—so-called derivative classification. In 2017, more than 49 million
government-generated documents were derivatively classified.
SECRECY BEGETS SECRECY

Almost everyone who has examined the U.S. system of keeping se-
crets has concluded that it results in mass overclassification. J. Wil-
liam Leonard, who led the Information Security Oversight Office
during the Bush administration, once observed that more than half of
the information that meets the criteria for classification “really should
not be classified.” Others would put that number much higher. Mi-
chael Hayden, a former director of the National Security Agency and
later of the CIA, once complained of receiving a “Merry Christmas”
email that carried a top-secret classification.
One factor driving overclassification is the fact that those who do the
classifying are almost always incentivized to err on the side of caution—
classifying up rather than down. When I worked at the Pentagon, if I

made a mistake and classified a document or an email at too high a
level, there would likely be no penalty. As far as I know, no one in the
offices I worked with was ever disciplined for classifying a document
too high. Classifying a document too low, however, can bring seri-
ous professional consequences—not to mention potentially
threaten U.S. national security. Secrecy, in other words, is the
easiest and safest course of action.
Secrecy also begets more secrecy, because documents must be clas-
sified at the highest level of classification of any information they con-
tain. If a ten-page memo contains even a single sentence that is classified
as top secret, for instance, the memo as a whole must be classified as
top secret (unless it is “portion marked,” meaning that each segment—
the title, each paragraph, each bullet point, and each table, for in-
stance—is given a separate mark of classification). This requirement
fuels an endless progression of derivative classification that compounds
the United States’ already enormous overclassification problem.
HIDDEN HARM
The democratic costs of overclassification are hard to overstate. To
note the obvious: a state cannot keep secrets from its enemies without
also keeping them from its own population. Massive government se-
cret keeping undermines democratic checks and balances, since it
makes it difficult, if not impossible, for the public—and, often, for
members of Congress—to know what the executive branch is up to.
The U.S. government has done horrific things when acting in se-
cret. CIA black sites, where detainees suspected of involvement in
terrorist groups were tortured during the Bush administration, could
not have survived public scrutiny—which is why they operated in se-
cret for years. Secrecy also undermines American democracy in more
subtle ways. When the government keeps secrets, those secrets en-
able—and sometimes require—lies. When those lies are exposed,
public trust in the government takes a hit—as it did in 2013, when
Edward Snowden, then a contractor for the National Security Agency,
revealed the existence of a massive surveillance program under which
the agency had accessed the email, instant-messaging, and cell phone
data of millions of Americans. That revelation eroded trust in U.S.
intelligence agencies, making it harder for them to operate—precisely
the opposite of what the government’s secrecy was meant to achieve.

Oona A. Hathaway
Secrets also have a chilling effect on free speech. In May 2019,

the Department of Justice indicted Julian Assange, the founder
of the whistle-blowing organization WikiLeaks, on 17 counts of violat-
ing the Espionage Act for obtaining and publishing classified docu-
ments. It was the first time the
government had brought such charges
The United States is for publication alone, raising fears in
focused on keeping too the media that the government might
many secrets that don’t start using the Espionage Act to pros-
really matter. ecute journalists. As The New York
Times reported at the time, Assange
had been charged for actions that the
paper itself had taken: it had obtained the same documents as
WikiLeaks, also without government authorization, and published
subsets of them, albeit with the names of informants withheld.
And it is not just whistleblowers and journalists who need to worry;
former government officials can also be caught in the classification vise.
Even after leaving office, government employees are not only subject
to potential criminal prosecution if they disclose classified information
that they learned while in government but also required to submit their
writings (and drafts of public talks) for “prepublication review.” John
Bolton, who served as national security adviser to President Donald
Trump, became an unexpected poster child for abuse of the prepublica-
tion review process after his book was subjected to delays that appeared
politically motivated. He is far from alone. Millions of former govern-
ment employees, including me, are bound by similar rules. The real
harm of this system is not to former government employees, however.
It is to the quality of public discourse, as former government employ-
ees with knowledge about the U.S. national security system too often
decide that it is easier to simply stay silent.
Overclassification also makes it difficult to keep the secrets that really
matter. As the Supreme Court justice Potter Stewart put it in his con-
curring opinion in the 1971 case ordering the release of the Pentagon
Papers, the Defense Department’s classified history of the U.S. role in
Vietnam, “When everything is classified, then nothing is classified, and
the system becomes one to be disregarded by the cynical or the careless,
and to be manipulated by those intent on self-protection or self-
promotion.” Too much secrecy can also make it harder to protect the
American public from national security threats—for instance, by limit-
ing information sharing that could inform decision-making or identify

new dangers. One reason the plot to carry out the 9/11 terrorist attacks
was not detected in advance, the 9/11 Commission found, was too much
secrecy: the failure to share information between agencies and with the
public allowed the attackers to succeed. “We’re better off with open-
ness,” said Thomas Kean, the chair of the commission. “The best ally we
have in protecting ourselves against terrorism is an informed public.”
EYES AND EARS EVERYWHERE

But perhaps the biggest cost of keeping too many secrets is that it has
blinded the United States to an emerging and potentially even more
dangerous threat: new tracking and monitoring technologies that are
making it increasingly difficult to conceal even the most sensitive in-
formation. Take the exercise app Strava, which allows athletes to re-
cord their runs and bike rides, among other activities, and share them
with friends. In 2017, this seemingly innocuous app became a national
security nightmare after a student in Australia began posting images
that showed the activities of American Strava users on what appeared
to be forward operating bases in Afghanistan and military patrols in
Syria. Others quickly generated maps of a French military base in
Niger and of an Italian base and an undisclosed CIA site in Djibouti.
Soon, it became clear that Strava data could be used not only to reveal
the inner workings of such military installations but also, with a few
tweaks, to identify and track particular individuals.
Hundreds of similar apps track the locations of unwitting Ameri-
cans every day, collecting information that is bought and sold by data
aggregators. One such company, X-Mode, collects, aggregates, and re-
sells location data so granular that it can track the movements of indi-
vidual devices and even determine their hardware settings. X-Mode
collects this information through its own applications, but it also pays
app developers who use X-Mode’s software developer and its location-
tracking code for their data. According to a 2019 news report, X-Mode
had access to location information for an average of 60 million global
monthly users. In late 2020, Apple and Google banned X-Mode from
collecting location information from mobile devices running their op-
erating systems, but the tracking technology remains widespread.
X-Mode is the best-known location-tracking data aggregator, but it
is far from the only company taking advantage of publicly available
information to track people’s private lives. The New York–based com-

Oona A. Hathaway
pany Clearview AI has devised a groundbreaking facial recognition

app that allows users to upload photos and run them against a data-
base of more than three billion images scraped from Facebook, Venmo,
YouTube, and millions of other websites to identify the people in the
photos. Federal and state law enforcement agencies have found the
app to be much better than the FBI’s
own database for tracking down crim-
Keeping too many secrets inal suspects. In 2019, the Indiana
has blinded the United State Police solved a case in 20 min-
utes after uploading to Clearview an
States to an emerging and image from a cell phone video shot
dangerous threat. by a bystander to a crime. The man
identified as the criminal suspect did
not have a driver’s license and was
not in any government database, but someone (not the man himself)
had posted a video of him on social media along with a caption con-
taining his name. He was quickly arrested and charged.
The rise of the Internet of Things—networked devices—means
that more information is being collected about people’s daily lives than
ever before, including vast troves of voice data generated by voice-
operated assistants such as Amazon’s Alexa. In a 2017 report, Dan
Coats, the director of national intelligence, identified the cybersecu-
rity vulnerabilities produced by the Internet of Things as a key threat
to national security. But the report focused narrowly on the physical
dangers that sophisticated cybertools might pose to consumer prod-
ucts such as cars and medical devices and did not address the threats
that these tools might pose to information security. Late last year,
Congress enacted the Internet of Things Cybersecurity Improvement
Act, which established minimum security requirements for connected
devices. But the law applies only to devices sold to the federal govern-
ment. Private citizens are on their own. And devices are hardly the
only way that companies collect personal information. Facebook makes
third-party plug-ins, such as “like” and “follow” buttons and tracking
pixels, that its advertising partners can add to their own, non-Facebook
websites and applications. These plug-ins, in addition to collecting
data for Facebook partners, enable Facebook to monitor the online
activities of its users even when they are not on its site.
The spies that necessitated the Espionage Act a century ago have
largely been replaced by this ubiquitous tracking and monitoring tech-
nology. If an app can expose the location and identity of U.S. soldiers
on forward operating bases in Afghanistan, it can do the same to intel-
ligence officers working at the CIA’s headquarters, in Langley, Virginia,
or even to the secretary of defense and his or her family members. For-
get trying to place operatives under cover again. No matter how careful
they have been to keep their identities off the Internet, their friends’
photos of them on Facebook and Instagram and inescapable surveillance
videos that data aggregators and their customers can easily access will
make it nearly impossible to hide their true identities and contacts,
much less the identities and whereabouts of their families and friends.
The U.S. government may have refrained from sounding the alarm
in part because its own intelligence agencies are exploiting such vulner-
abilities themselves. Documents disclosed by WikiLeaks in 2017, for
instance, revealed that the CIA had exploited a vulnerability in Samsung-
connected televisions to use them as covert listening devices. But while
the U.S. government has kept mum, private industry has met and
sometimes surpassed authorities’ ability to collect information. Non-
governmental organizations working in conflict zones now crowdsource
conflict-related information that is often as good as or better than the
information gathered by U.S. intelligence agencies. At the same time,
private satellite companies provide on-demand access to sophisticated
satellite imagery of practically any location on earth. In short, the gov-
ernment no longer has a monopoly on the information that matters.
THE MOSAIC THEORY

In the national security world, there is a concept known as “the mosaic
theory.” It holds that disparate, seemingly innocuous pieces of infor-
mation can become significant when combined with other pieces of
information. This theory is one reason why the vast majority of indi-
viduals with access to classified information are told that they cannot
judge what information should be classified. A document that appears
meaningless might, when put together with other information, give
away an important piece of the mosaic to an adversary.
Historically, intelligence analysts have pieced together bits of infor-
mation to complete the mosaic. As specialists in their fields, good ana-
lysts come to know when a seemingly inconsequential piece of
information may be significant in context. The advent of big data, com-
bined with artificial intelligence, promises to upend this traditional ap-
proach. To understand why, consider the breakthrough made by the

Oona A. Hathaway
retail giant Target almost a decade ago. Like most companies, Target
assigns its customers ID numbers tied to their in-store cards and to their
credit cards, names, and email addresses. When a customer makes a
purchase, that information is collected and aggregated. In 2012, a statis-
tician working at Target figured out that he could use this information,
together with purchase information from women who had set up baby
registries, to determine who was likely pregnant. Women who were
pregnant started buying unscented lotion, for instance, and they were
more likely to purchase calcium, magnesium, and zinc supplements. Us-
ing this information, Target was able to create a “pregnancy prediction
score,” calculate where women probably were in the course of their preg-
nancies, and send women coupons for products they may need. This
technology only came to public attention after an angry customer com-
plained to a manager at Target that the company was sending mailers to
his daughter that clearly targeted pregnant women. Later, he called to
apologize: “It turns out there’s been some activities in my house I haven’t
been completely aware of. She’s due in August. I owe you an apology.”
That was one company monitoring one set of purchases nearly a
decade ago with the help of a simple statistical analysis. Now consider
what an adversary could do if it combined that kind of information
with similar information from a variety of databases and then used
modern artificial intelligence to detect patterns.
This is likely already happening. China is suspected of collecting
the personal data of millions of Americans. William Evanina, former
director of the U.S. National Counterintelligence and Security Cen-
ter, warned in early 2021 that China had stolen personal information
belonging to 80 percent of Americans, including by hacking health-
care companies and smart home devices that connect to the Internet.
In April, federal investigators concluded that Chinese hackers may
have scraped information from social media sites such as LinkedIn to
help them determine which email accounts belonged to system ad-
ministrators, information that they then used to target Microsoft’s
email software with a cyberattack. In other words, China appears to
have built a massive data set of Americans’ private information using
data illegally obtained and scraped from publicly available websites.
In March 2014, Chinese hackers broke into computer networks of
the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, which houses personal in-
formation of all federal employees, and obtained the files of tens of
thousands of employees who had applied for top-secret security clear-
ances—including me. Although these files were not classified, they

contained valuable national security information: the identities of gov-
ernment employees with top-secret clearances, as well as their family
contacts, overseas travel and international contacts, Social Security
numbers, and contact information for neighbors and friends. Com-
bined with the database of Americans’ personal information, this infor-
mation has likely put China in a position to determine which federal
government employees with top-secret access are carrying large credit
card debts, have used dating apps while married, have children study-
ing abroad, or are staying unusually late at the office (possibly signaling
that an important operation is underway). In short, while the U.S.
government has been wasting its energy protecting classified informa-
tion, the vast bulk of which is unimportant, information with much
greater national security value has been left out for the taking.
ENDING OVERCLASSIFICATION
The current U.S. national security system was designed to protect
twentieth-century secrets. At the time the system was created, most
important national security information was in the government’s
hands. It made sense to design a system devoted almost entirely to
keeping spies from obtaining that information and preventing insid-
ers from disclosing it. Today, however, government information has
been eclipsed by private information. The United States needs an ap-
proach to national security information that reflects that new reality.
It must fundamentally reform the massive national security system
that has created a giant edifice of mostly useless classified information
and reduce the amount of private information that is easily attainable.
In pursuit of the first aim, the United States should start by impos-
ing an automatic ten-year declassification rule for all classified infor-
mation. Currently, all classified records older than 25 years are supposed
to be automatically declassified, but there are so many exceptions to
that rule that many documents remain secret for a half century or
more. It took until 2017 to declassify 2,800 classified records relating
to the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, for instance, and
even then the Trump administration held some records back.
A ten-year declassification timeline should have only two excep-
tions: information classified as “restricted data” under the Atomic En-
ergy Act and information identifying intelligence agency informants
who are still alive. Decisions about whether declassifying any other

Oona A. Hathaway
information might harm national security should be left to an inde-

pendent review board made up of former government officials, histo-
rians, journalists, and civil rights advocates. A government agency
facing the automatic declassification of information it deemed poten-
tially harmful could appeal to the board to extend the classification
period—in essence, forcing the agency to justify any deviation from
the rule. By making declassification the default, such a rule would
incentivize the government to adequately resource the review process
and to allow it to take place in a timely manner.
The government should also harness the power of artificial intelli-
gence and machine learning to identify cases of overclassification. Indi-
vidual government employees who routinely overclassify information
relative to their peers could be identified, notified that they classify doc-
uments more often than others, and encouraged to be more careful to
assess the true need to classify. Artificial intelligence may also eventually
be able to suggest classification levels at the time employees are writing
documents or emails, to challenge incorrect classification decisions at the
time they are made, and to review the classification of stored documents.
Ending mass overclassification would free officials to think more
creatively about addressing the emerging threat posed by enormous
troves of readily available personal data. Washington can begin by fol-
lowing the lead of Beijing, which despite being an intrusive surveil-
lance state recently enacted one of the strongest data privacy laws in
the world—likely not primarily to protect its citizens’ privacy but to
prevent their data from being collected and exploited by foreign ad-
versaries. The law applies to all entities and individuals, both inside
and outside China, that process the personal data of Chinese citizens
or organizations, imposing controls on the data and allowing Chinese
citizens to sue if the information is stolen, misused, or corrupted. In
so doing, the law discourages companies doing business in China from
collecting and retaining personal data that could be of interest to for-
eign intelligence services. In other words, China is working to close
the door to foreign powers seeking to exploit the personal data of its
citizens, while the United States has left that door wide open.
Privacy in the United States, meanwhile, relies on a patchwork of
federal and state laws, each of which addresses elements of the prob-
lem, but none of which is comprehensive. For years, civil liberties
groups have been calling on the federal government to protect the
private information of individuals, but those calls have gone mostly
unheeded. Today, however, it is increasingly clear that protecting the

privacy of Americans is necessary not just to ensure their civil liber-
ties but also to defend the country.
Congress should start by expanding to all Internet-connected de-
vices the same security requirements that currently apply only to
those such devices that the government owns or operates. One subset
of Internet-connected devices poses an especially acute danger: those
that monitor the human body. These include fitness trackers that are
worn on the body but also devices that are implanted or inserted into
it: pacemakers, cardioverter defibrillators, and “digital pills” with em-
bedded sensors that record that the medication has been taken. To
reduce the vulnerability of these devices to hacking, federal regulators
must require manufacturers to improve their security protocols.
The government should also give consumers new and better tools to
control the data that companies collect about them. The Information
Transparency and Personal Data Control Act, introduced in March by
Representative Suzan DelBene, Democrat of Washington, would re-
quire “opt in” and “opt out” consent and “plain English privacy notices.”
These measures would certainly be improvements over the status quo.
But research shows that consumers tend not to read disclosures, so even
clear individual opt-in and opt-out requirements may not limit data col-
lection from unwitting consumers. The proposed legislation would also
preempt state laws that may be more protective than the federal law,
meaning that it may actually reduce protections in some places. A bet-
ter option would be for Congress to enact a federal law that follows the
example recently set by California, requiring businesses to respect indi-
viduals’ choices to universally opt out of data collection. That would be
an important step toward giving control back to consumers.
Last, Congress should create an independent federal agency to moni-
tor and enforce data protection rules. The United States is one of only a
few democracies that does not have an agency dedicated to data protec-
tion. Instead, it relies on the Federal Trade Commission, which has many
competing obligations. The proposed Data Protection Act of 2021, in-
troduced in June by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Democratic of New
York, would create an agency to “regulate high-risk data practices and
the collection, processing, and sharing of personal data”—in particular,
by data aggregators. Establishing such an agency would also allow the
federal government to develop expertise in data privacy issues and to
respond more quickly and effectively to new challenges and threats.

Oona A. Hathaway
LOCKED OUT
The inventor Charles Kettering once observed that “when you lock
the laboratory door, you lock out more than you lock in.” In the early
twentieth century, when the current classification system took shape,
the information worth protecting was mostly located inside federal
agencies, so locking the door made some sense. Today, however, Ket-
tering’s observation applies more than ever. Private entities have ac-
cess to more, and in many cases better, information than the
government, so locking the door only isolates federal agencies with-
out protecting much information worth keeping secure.
What a twenty-first-century approach to national security infor-
mation requires is greater attention to privacy. Yet the United States
has done little to protect the information about ordinary citizens that
in a world of artificial intelligence and machine learning poses a grow-
ing threat to national security. The United States spends billions of
dollars to protect classified information, much of which is already
readily available from public sources. But it does little to enable its
citizens, including those in important government positions, to keep
their private lives from being documented, tracked, and exposed. In
so doing, it is leaving pieces of the mosaic of U.S. national security
lying around for its adversaries to gather up and put together.∂
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heart of the continent’s impressive growth 50 index and No.1 in the Times Higher Education Young
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have been value-added manufacturing,
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Belying its size and defying the consequent geographi-
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“We have been providing development programs that
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workforce,” explained National University of Singapore
Institute of Systems Science CEO Khoon Chan Meng.
With the emergence of high-tech industries in the 1980s
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Global hub of learning and innovation DIRECTORY
gion, and around the globe,” said NTU environment. Universiti Teknologi Brunei
President Subra Suresh. pursues a vision to become
“There is an element of Hong Kong a global university that
“The Ministry of Education certifies being an attractive place. It has this in- positively impacts society.
UTB is the nation’s only
every school teacher in Singapore. The teresting blend of Chinese culture and 5-Plus QS Star University and
Singapore curriculum is very highly the inﬂuence of the British educational is ranked 344th in the QS World University
ranked. That, combined with lifelong system. Hong Kong also has a very dis- Rankings. It is the sultanate’s key provider of
learning and engaging alumni for tinct, inclusive and global atmosphere,” higher education in engineering, as well as
in business, computing, applied sciences &
upskilling and reskilling, gives us an said Hong Kong University of Science mathematics, and design.
opportunity to leverage the power of and Technology President Wei Shyy. http://www.utb.edu.bn
education in new and unique ways,” In neighboring Taiwan, the ministry Nanyang Technological
Suresh added. of education stepped up efforts to at-
University, Singapore (NTU
Singapore) is a research-in-
The SARS-COV2 pandemic hit the tract more international students to tensive public university with
global educational sector very hard partially address its decreasing birth around 33,000 undergraduate
and postgraduate students
in 2020. But fortunately, for millions rates. International students are vital in in its engineering, business, science, hu-
of students, some schools were more keeping Taiwan universities. To achieve manities, arts, social sciences, and graduate
agile than others in adapting to the that objective, universities have imple- colleges. It also set up a medical school, Lee
Kong Chian School of Medicine, in partnership
unprecedented health crisis. mented changes to make their pro- with Imperial College London.
By establishing strict safety protocols grams more inclusive. https://www.ntu.edu.sg
and investing in hybrid class capabili- “We are pushing very hard to make our Nanyang Business School (NBS), ranked
among the world’s top business schools, has
ties, Nanyang Business School was able university bilingual. The only reason been nurturing leaders for business and pub-
to increase its enrollment of interna- is we want to draw more attention
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lic service and advancing global management

tional students. from foreign students and hopefully knowledge and practice for decades. Fully
welcome them to Hualien County,” integrated into NTU, it draws on the strengths
“The university worked with immigra- of one of Asia’s most comprehensive
tion authorities to bring in students said National Dong Hwa University research-intensive universities to provide
in a batch system, so that entry was President Dr. Han-Chieh Chao. holistic, interdisciplinary business education.
https://www.ntu.edu.sg/business
controlled. We provided quarantine Like other universities dealing with
Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine is a
facilities for students. Our students the SARS-COV2 global pandemic, partnership between Nanyang Technological
were able to come and spend about Taiwanese universities had to adopt University, Singapore and Imperial College
two-thirds of their program here,” digitalization strategies, such as equip- London. Offering undergraduate and graduate
programs, the school aims to be a model for
said Nanyang Business School Dean ping all classrooms and laboratories innovative medical education and a center for
Christina Soh. with 5G Wi-Fi to be able to conduct transformative research.
lectures within the campus. https://www.ntu.edu.sg/medicine
On the other hand, Lee Kong Chian
HK University of Science
School of Medicine sees this time as an “We need to keep the university run- and Technology, which just
opportunity to increase international ning and adapt to this new normal. So, marked its 30th anniversary, is
collaboration and capitalize on its we are establishing a so-called new era a world-class research univer-
sity that focuses on science,
strong reputation as a research partner. classroom where we can do physical technology, business, as well
“LKCMedicine is a joint venture be- teaching activities and conduct re- as humanities and social
tween NTU Singapore and Imperial mote online teaching simultaneously,” science. In 2021, HKUST ranked
explained Ming Chi University of 3rd in the Times Higher Education’s Young
College London, one of the world’s top University Rankings.
medical schools. We have been work- Technology President Dr. Thu-Hua Liu. https://hkust.edu.hk/home
ing together in establishing the medi- Perhaps not on the radar of the typical Ming Ching University
cal curriculum and focusing on vari- international student, Brunei boasts an of Technology is one of
Taiwan’s top vocational
ous research areas like neuroscience excellent education system funded by universities, best known for
andinfectious diseases. Moving into its multibillion crude oil and natural gas its Practical Cooperative
our second phase of development, we exports. Since gaining independence Training Program. The ulti-
mate educational goal of MCUT is to cultivate
want to expand our international part- in 1984, the sultanate has ensured that professionals who can apply theory and put it
nerships with other medical schools higher education remains affordable. into practice.
in different parts of the world,” said https://www.mcut.edu.tw
“Our mission is to nurture socially
LKCMedicine Dean Prof. Joseph Sung. responsible individuals with a deep National Dong Hwa
University (NDHU), which
Because its history, Hong Kong be- respect for the Malay Islamic Monarchy. offers 35 college degrees and
came a leading center of trade and We are committed to building a global 17 Ph.D. programs, is widen-
ing its student exchange
finance between the East and the West and entrepreneurial society that pur- programs and research
and a melting pot of several cultures. sues innovation and industry-relevant collaborations with higher educational and
Positioning itself as “the world city of capabilities,” said Universiti Teknologi research institutes around the world. To date,
Asia,” Hong Kong continues to attract Brunei Vice-Chancellor Dr. Hajah it has more than 10,000 students, of which
about 3,800 are graduate students, from
international students looking for a Zohrah binti Haji Sulaiman. Taiwan and other countries.
world-class education in a diverse https://www.ndhu.edu.tw
PAGE 2 | Global Media Post | www.gmipost.com

MCUT: A SOLID REPUTATION AT HOME AND ABROAD
Founded in 1963, Ming Chi University of Technology
(MCUT) has become one of Taiwan’s top vocational uni-
versities, best known for providing hands-on cooperative
training and facilitating compulsory one-year, full-time NBS Ad
internships. The school provides internships with local 74mm x 49.6mm
industries, as well as with international partners through
its Overseas Practical Cooperative Training Program.
MCUT offers undergraduate and master’s degrees under
the College of Engineering, College of Environment
Resources, and College of Management and Design.
Students can specialize in multiple degrees, including
chemical engineering, digital marketing, and mechanical
engineering.
To keep up with rapid innovation around the world,
MCUT established research centers that specialize in film
technologies, organic engineering research, artificial in-
telligence, and data science. Through these centers, the
university wants to nurture students with a wider global
perspective and more proficient English language skills.
MCUT has also developed an extensive global network
SPONSORED SECTION
with international universities to create diverse op-
portunities to improve its position, like academic ex-
changes, study abroad programs and scientific research
partnerships.
www.mcut.edu.tw
Developing credible responses to The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
promote sustainability (HKUST) promotes curiosity-driven and mission-encour-
aged teaching and research, under a cross-disciplinary
By Prof. Wei Shyy, President of The Hong Kong University of framework to connect students, researchers, businesses,
Science and Technology industries and governments and to motivate them to
The massive social and economic disruptions caused by act collaboratively in addressing these challenges facing
the recent pandemic, along with international disagree- humanity.
ments, have shown that changes can happen at an More than 30 university-funded projects have been de-
unprecedented speed that induce unpredictable situa- veloped by HKUST members under “Sustainable Smart
tions and fundamentally transformative conditions. Campus as a Living Lab” initiative. These projects include
The new normal is placing increasing pressure on developing self-cleaning nanocoatings to improve
higher education institutions to accelerate discovery photovoltaic panel efficiencies, autonomous greywater
and innovation in the interest of society, especially in treatment, water leakage detection technologies, and
the global mission of building a sustainable future. The digital twins of all campus buildings for streamlined
issues on hand demand that we consider and adopt operations and planning.
fundamental changes across all sectors in the way we Hong Kong faces both global and local issues. With
operate. We must focus on the availability of and access its deep and rich international history, meaningful re-
to resources, wealth distribution, and equity among sponses to sustainability need to be developed based
regions and societies. on open, collaborative and original ideas. Universities
Leading universities around the world are committed to are at their best when they engage stakeholders
meeting the net-zero carbon goal by 2050, if not earlier. across the spectrum for collaboration and partner-
In order to achieve such a serious goal, we have to not ship, empower and enable future leaders, foster novel
only develop solutions that are scalable and life-cycle- ideas, innovations and practices. HKUST will work with
oriented, but also consider vast differences in the stage our global partners to fulfill our missions and societal
of economic development and local natural conditions responsibilities.
between regions and countries. https://hkust.edu.hk/home
Sponsored Section | PAGE 3

SPONSORED SECTION
PAGE 4 | Global Media Post | www.gmipost.com

The Real Crisis of
Global Order
Illiberalism on the Rise
T
he election of Donald Trump in 2016 sparked a major debate
over the nature and fate of the liberal international order, sud-
denly caught, it seemed, between the Charybdis of illiberal
great-power challengers and the Scylla of a hostile U.S. president. Trump
may have lost the presidency in 2020, but the liberal order remains under
threat. If anything, recent events have underlined the magnitude of the
challenges it faces—and, most important, that these challenges are only
one manifestation of a much broader crisis endangering liberalism itself.
For decades after World War II, the dominant factions in both the
Democratic and the Republican Parties were committed to the project
of creating a U.S.-led liberal international order. They saw Washington
as central to building a world at least partly organized around market
exchanges and private property; the protection of political, civil, and hu-
man rights; the normative superiority of representative democracy; and
formally equal sovereign states often working through multilateral insti-
tutions. Whatever its faults, the order that would emerge in the wake of
the Cold War lifted millions out of poverty and led to a record percent-
age of humanity living under democratic governments. But it also re-
moved firebreaks that made it more difficult for turmoil at one political
level to spread to another—by, for instance, jumping from the subna-
tional to the national to the regional and, finally, to the global level.
Key players in the established democracies, especially in Europe
and North America, assumed that reducing international barriers
ALEXANDER COOLEY is Director of Columbia University’s Harriman Institute and Claire
Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College.
DANIEL H. NEXON is a Professor in the Department of Government and at the Walsh

School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.

would facilitate the spread of liberal movements and values. It did for
a time, but the resulting international order now favors a diverse array
of illiberal forces, including authoritarian states, such as China, that
reject liberal democracy wholesale, as well as reactionary populists
and conservative authoritarians who position themselves as protectors
of so-called traditional values and national culture as they gradually
subvert democratic institutions and the rule of law. In the eyes of
many right-wing Americans and their overseas counterparts, Western
illiberalism looks perfectly democratic.
Soon after his inauguration, U.S. President Joe Biden began talk-
ing about “a battle between the utility of democracies in the twenty-
first century and autocracies.” In doing so, he echoed a widespread
view that democratic liberalism faces threats from both within and
without. Authoritarian powers and illiberal democracies are seeking
to undermine key aspects of the liberal international order. And the
supposed pillars of that order, most notably the United States, are in
danger of succumbing to illiberalism at home.
Whether they want to “build back better” or “make America great
again,” every American analyst seems to agree that the United States
needs to first sort itself out to effectively compete with authoritarian
great powers and advance the cause of democracy on the global stage.
But the two major political parties have very different understandings
of what this project of renewal entails. This schism is far greater than
disputes over economic regulation and public investment. Partisans
see the other side as an existential threat to the very survival of the
United States as a democratic republic.
The United States is one of the more polarized Western democra-
cies, but its political conflicts and tensions are manifestations of
broader, international processes. The U.S. reactionary right, for ex-
ample, is linked to a variety of global networks that include both op-
position political movements and governing regimes. Efforts to shore
up liberal democracy in the United States will have cascading and
sometimes unpredictable effects on the broader liberal order; at the
same time, policymakers cannot set the country’s affairs in order with-
out tackling wider international and transnational challenges.
All of this goes way beyond giving American democracy a fresh coat
of paint and remodeling its kitchen. The crisis cannot be addressed by
simply recommitting the United States to multilateral institutions,
treaties, and alliances. Its roots are structural. The nature of the con-
temporary liberal international order leaves democracies particularly

vulnerable to both internal and external illiberal pressures.
In their current form, liberal institutions cannot stem the rising
illiberal tide; governments have struggled to prevent the diffusion of
antidemocratic ideologies and tactics, both homegrown and im-
ported. Liberal democracies must adapt to fend off threats on mul-
tiple levels. But there is a catch. Any attempt to grapple with this
crisis will require policy decisions that are clearly illiberal or neces-
sitate a new version of liberal order.
OPEN FOR INSTABILITY

Critics of the notion of a new cold war between China and the United
States highlight fundamental differences between the world of today
and that of the early decades of the Cold War. The Soviet Union and
the United States formed the centers of discrete geopolitical blocs. By
contrast, Beijing and Washington operate in overlapping and intercon-
nected geopolitical spaces. For years, politicians in Washington have
debated how many restrictions to place on Chinese investment in the
United States. There was no such angst, and no need for it, when it
came to the Soviet Union. U.S. companies did not outsource produc-
tion to Soviet factories; the Soviet Union was never a significant sup-
plier of finished goods to the United States or its key treaty allies.
A wide range of developments—all of which accelerated over the
last three decades—have made the world denser with flows of knowl-
edge and commerce, including the expansion of markets, economic
deregulation, the easy mobility of capital, satellite communications,
and digital media. People are more aware of what is happening in
different parts of the world; formal and informal transnational po-
litical networks—limited during the Cold War by hard geopolitical
borders and fewer, costlier forms of long-distance communication—
have grown in both importance and reach.
These unfolding changes jumbled the geopolitical landscape that
emerged after the implosion of the Soviet Union. No single, uniform
international order replaced the more bifurcated international order
of the Cold War; the world, despite the hopes of neoliberal politi-
cians, never became “flat.” Instead, the international order that took
shape by the turn of the century was highly variegated. Many of the
new democratic regimes that appeared in the 1990s were only tenu-
ously democratic; optimists wrongly dismissed early indications of

weak liberal democratic institutions as but bumps on the road to full

democratization. Eastward across Eurasia, liberal ordering became in-
creasingly patchwork. Some states, such as China, managed to effec-
tively access the benefits of the liberal economic order without
accepting the requirements of political liberalism.
Many analysts in those years promised that market expansion
would produce robust middle classes that would in turn demand po-
litical liberalization. They argued that the development of a global
civil society—underpinned by human rights, the rule of law, and en-
vironmental nongovernmental organizations (ngos)—would help
cultivate and mobilize pro-democracy forces, especially in the post-
Soviet space. The Internet, widely imagined as an unstoppable force
for freedom, would do its part to spread the irresistible appeal of both
liberal economic principles and liberal political freedoms.
One could still make a case for optimism even after 2005, the
last year that had a net increase in global democracy, according to
the pro-democracy advocacy group Freedom House. But in retro-
spect, it seems hopelessly naive.
In 2001, only a few months before China formally entered the
World Trade Organization, the September 11 attacks drove the United
States to embark on the global war on terrorism. The Bush adminis-
tration adopted or expanded a host of illiberal practices, including the
torture of “unlawful combatants” through “enhanced interrogation”
techniques and via “extraordinary renditions” to third-party govern-
ments, and embraced a militarized version of democracy promotion.
The invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the accompanying doctrine of pre-
emption further strained relations between the United States and Eu-
ropean allies such as France and Germany. The upheavals of the “color
revolutions”—liberal uprisings in post-Soviet countries (in Georgia
in 2003 and Ukraine in 2004)—and the Arab Spring, which flared in
2010, further underscored the threat posed by agents of the liberal
order, such as international institutions, Western ngos, and social me-
dia. Authoritarian and illiberal regimes increasingly pursued strate-
gies to inoculate themselves from these transnational liberal threats.
The cumulative result of technological innovations, policy choices
made by liberal powers, and evolving authoritarian practices was “asym-
metric openness”—the strange reality that the contemporary liberal or-
der works better for authoritarian regimes than it does for liberal
democracies. Authoritarian states can curtail the effect on their popula-
tions of international civil society, multinational corporations, economic

flows, and even the Internet much more effectively than can liberal
democracies. Authoritarians can use the freedom of global flows—as
afforded by liberal policies, whether economic or political—to advance
their own illiberal influence. They do so while variously interdicting,
excluding, and controlling cross-national flows of ideas, organizations,
information, and money that might threaten their hold on power.
THE AUTHORITARIAN ADVANTAGE

The openness of liberal countries—one of the core principles of such
societies—has become a liability. A fundamental problem confronting
U.S. policymakers—and one that is especially challenging to those
whose assumptions were shaped by governing during the 1990s and
early years of this century, when the United States exercised he
gemony—is the adeptness with which illiberal states and political
movements exploit an open and interconnected global system.
Openness is not producing a more liberal global media and informa-
tion environment; authoritarians build barriers to Western media in
their own countries while using access to Western platforms to advance
their own agendas. For example, authoritarian states now enjoy ex-
panded media access to the democratic world. State-run global media
outlets, such as China’s cgtn and Russia’s rt, receive billions of dollars
in government support and maintain a plethora of foreign bureaus and
correspondents, including in Western democracies—even as authori-
tarian regimes increasingly exclude Western media. China expelled
bbc correspondents and banned the British network from broadcasting
in the country in 2021 for its coverage of abuses in Xinjiang.
Similarly, authoritarian-sponsored organizations and lobbying groups
continue their activities within open societies even as countries such as
China and Russia ban Western officials, academics, and think tankers.
Contemporary autocrats are image conscious. They use new technolo-
gies and social media platforms to shape their global profiles and elevate
their standing with both domestic and international audiences. They
routinely contract the services of public relations firms in the West,
which portray their clients as popular at home, emphasize their geostra-
tegic importance, and whitewash histories of repression and corruption.
Autocrats also attempt to influence policymakers in liberal democracies
by funding think tanks and sponsoring “study tours” and other junkets.
Reputation management firms—retained by illiberal governments and

oligarchs from autocracies—carefully scan global media and threaten

litigation to dissuade negative coverage and deter investigations.
Digital technologies enable new instruments of domestic and trans-
national repression. They have allowed the security services of both
powerful countries (such as China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey)
and weaker ones (such as Belarus, Rwanda, and Tajikistan) to intensify
campaigns to monitor, intimidate, and silence political opponents in
exile and activists in diaspora communities—even those residing in
countries normally considered safe havens, such as Canada, the United
Kingdom, and the United States. As a recent investigation into the
Israeli technology company nso Group and its Pegasus spyware high-
lighted, authoritarian governments engage in extensive digital surveil-
lance of dissidents and journalists from other countries, often with the
aid of corporations based in democratic states.
Western technology companies were once self-proclaimed champi-
ons of openness. Now, many are capitulating to pressures from their
host countries to remove content and tools that could be used to fa-
cilitate mobilization against the regime. Just prior to the parliamen-
tary elections in Russia in September 2021, the Kremlin convinced
Apple and Google to remove an application developed by supporters
of the jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny that was designed to
help coordinate the opposition vote. Navalny accused the technology
giants of acting as the Kremlin’s “accomplices.”
International institutions are also bending to the will of authoritari-
ans. China under the leadership of President Xi Jinping has aggressively
sought to curtail criticism of the country in UN human rights forums.
According to the advocacy group Human Rights Watch, Beijing has
sought to “neutralize the ability of that system to hold any government
accountable for serious human rights violations.” Authoritarian states
have banded together in coalitions such as the Like-Minded Group to
oppose criticism of the human rights practices of individual countries,
privilege state sovereignty, and block the accreditation of ngos and di-
minish their role in authorized un processes, such as the Universal Pe-
riodic Review. China now leads four un agencies and has pushed for its
preferred leadership candidates in others, including the World Health
Organization. In September, the World Bank Group canceled its influ-
ential “Doing Business” annual study after an external investigative re-
port found that its leaders, for political reasons, had applied “undue
pressure” on their staff to improve China’s position in the 2018 ranking.
Not only can authoritarian states operate freely in the universalist

institutions of the liberal international order, but they are also con-
structing an ecosystem of alternative ordering institutions from which
they exclude or significantly curtail the influence of liberal democracies.
By founding new regional economic and security organizations, China
and Russia can press home their regional agendas via institutions that
openly reject the dissemination of political liberal norms and values, use
those institutions to help organize illiberal blocs within more venerable
international organizations, and maintain exit options should liberal or-
dering institutions become less welcoming to authoritarians.
THE ROT WITHIN

The threat to liberal democracies also comes from within. The liberal or-
der is anchored by two large federations: the United States and the Euro-
pean Union. Both are also home to some of the most potent and potentially
consequential forces of illiberalism. These assume, broadly speaking, two
forms: the illiberal actions that liberal democratic governments them-
selves take in seeking to counter perceived threats and the antidemo-
cratic forces seen in illiberal political movements, parties, and politicians.
Democratic governments have always grappled with tradeoffs be-
tween liberty and security, and liberalism has always faced dilemmas
about how far to tolerate illiberal actors. The U.S. government con-
doned the subnational racial authoritarianism of Jim Crow and racial
segregation for the majority of the twentieth century, with horrific con-
sequences. U.S. national security policy after 9/11 contributed to the
current crisis of the liberal order by, among other things, promulgating
the doctrine of preemptive war and militarizing democracy promotion.
The United States’ embrace of speculative capitalism and its overly fi-
nanced economy made it the epicenter of the 2008 financial crisis. Most
recently, the global pandemic has normalized tighter border controls
and more restrictive immigration policies and undermined the legiti-
macy of protections for refugees.
In order to push back against illiberal forces, most notably China,
democratic governments have adopted policies that cut against the
openness that characterizes the contemporary liberal order. Washing-
ton has used coercive instruments to intervene in global markets in an
attempt to preserve U.S. access to and superiority in strategically im-
portant technologies. Security concerns related to the potential large-
scale Chinese surveillance of Western telecommunications traffic, for

example, led the Trump administration to place substantial pressure

on its allies to reject Chinese 5G technology. Even many U.S. politi-
cians and foreign policy officials who are, unlike Trump, committed to
market liberalism generally consider this policy a success.
Genuine support for broad-based economic decoupling from China
remains limited, but the growing rivalry between Beijing and Wash-
ington has produced other, albeit partial, moves away from market
liberalism in the name of competitiveness and strategic autonomy.
Stuck in the reconciliation process at the time of this writing, the U.S.
Innovation and Competition Act is the first significant bipartisan leg-
islation in years to embrace national industrial policy. In this respect,
it represents a very limited reversal of the open liberalism, or neolib-
eralism, of the post–Cold War period.
The neoliberal variant of market liberalism—the push, starting in
the 1970s, toward ever-greater deregulation, privatization, and capi-
tal mobility—eroded social protections and increased inequality, in-
cluding by dramatically refashioning the tax code to benefit
high-income earners and U.S. corporations. But instead of reversing
these policies, many U.S. politicians prefer to place the blame on
Chinese trade practices. Maintaining tariffs on Chinese goods ap-
peals to populist sentiments and benefits a limited number of work-
ers in industries that compete against Chinese imports, such as steel.
But the harm it inflicts on export industries and consumers is greater.
So far, the tariffs do not seem to have produced a new, better trading
arrangement with China.
Efforts to grapple with homegrown antidemocratic forces also
threaten to undermine liberal norms and values. In the United States,
liberals and progressives have called for changes in procedural rules to
prevent democratic backsliding. They champion taking an aggressive
stance against right-wing militias and paramilitary organizations,
stacking the Supreme Court with liberal judges, and abandoning
long-standing legislative practices, such as the filibuster. When overtly
illiberal regimes take these same measures, observers rightly accuse
them of undermining democracy.
The fact remains that liberal democracies do face very real threats
from the rise of reactionary populism, conservative authoritarianism,
and other antidemocratic movements. In the United States, one of the
two major political parties remains beholden to an authoritarian dem-
agogue. Motivated by the “Big Lie” (the objectively false claim that
Democrats stole the election from Trump through systematic voter

fraud), the Republican Party is purging officials who stood in the way
of efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Republican voter-
suppression efforts are accelerating. Extreme gerrymandering has al-
ready made some states—such as Maryland, North Carolina, and
Wisconsin—de facto legislative anocracies, or systems of governance
that mix democratic and autocratic features. If these trends continue,
procedural changes may prove to be the only way to prevent the un-
raveling of democracy in the United States.
CULTURE WARS AND POWER POLITICS

More broadly, liberalism risks undermining itself. At the heart of con-
temporary political liberalism lies the belief that certain rights and
values are universal—that they exist regardless of differences among
countries, cultures, or historical backgrounds. The human rights treaty
system embraces this understanding; signatory states commit to pro-
tecting specific rights, such as due process, and to refraining from
particular violations of human rights, such as torture.
The expansion of liberal rights in recent decades, however, has fu-
eled a growing backlash. The Obama administration’s effort to promote
lgbtq rights abroad, usually through the State Department, sparked
anger among conservatives in countries as different as the Czech Re-
public and Uganda. The sprawl of contemporary liberal values—from
lgbtq rights to gender equality to the rights of migrants—invites
pushback in both democratic and nondemocratic states. It provides il-
liberal politicians with opportunities to isolate specific liberal values
and use them as wedge issues against their opponents.
Moscow, perhaps inadvertently, succeeded in casting itself as a bea-
con of traditional values through a campaign to demonize lgbtq
rights as a stalking-horse for child sexual abuse. There is nothing par-
ticularly novel about this kind of strategy. What is notable is how it
has become transnational and, in so doing, has served as a basis for
illiberal policies in other countries. Such wedge strategies are also
used to undermine support in the international community for re-
formers by tying them to illiberal values. For example, Amnesty
International briefly revoked Navalny’s “prisoner of conscience”
status following a Kremlin-backed information campaign that
highlighted xenophobic comments he had made in the past about
Central Asian migrants.

The point is not that the United States should retreat from making
lgbtq rights part of its foreign policy or that Navalny’s alarming
views on Central Asian migrants are of no consequence. It is that in
advancing liberal rights, policymakers have to navigate significant
tradeoffs, inconsistencies, and contention.
This extends beyond matters of democracy promotion and civil
rights. The Biden administration has correctly declared corruption to
be a national security risk. But anticorruption measures will inspire
blowback that also poses a national security concern. Aggressive meas
ures will threaten politically connected oligarchs in Europe and else-
where. Corrupt autocrats are likely to see a number of anti-kleptocracy
efforts, such as expanding diligence requirements for service provid-
ers and prohibiting foreign officials from accepting bribes, as a serious
threat to their regimes and will rally their publics against these new
forms of “domestic interference.” Important steps for conserving lib-
eralism, even defensive ones, will generate pushback against the lib-
eral order—and not just from overseas. Anticorruption measures
threaten a wide range of U.S. politicians, businesspeople, and consul-
tants. In recent years, and especially after the 2016 election, such
measures have become another source of partisan polarization.
REACTIONARIES WITHOUT BORDERS

That polarization is not a discrete national phenomenon. U.S. reac-
tionary populism is a specific manifestation of a global trend. The
international popularity of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban
among right-wing commentators, ethnonationalist leaders, and con-
servative celebrities (particularly American ones) highlights the trans-
national character of illiberal networks. Orban—whom the Biden
administration noticeably did not invite to the planned Summit for
Democracy in December—has emerged as a media darling of the
American right: a head of state who denounces the power of the phi-
lanthropist George Soros, touts anti-immigration policies, and cham-
pions traditional values.
The Conservative Political Action Conference—a major forum of
the American right—plans to hold its 2022 annual meeting in Hun-
gary. The Fox News host Tucker Carlson—arguably the single most
influential conservative media personality in the United States—
spent a week in Hungary in the summer of 2021 to interview Orban,
praise his government, and tell his audience that Hungary is a model
democracy. Carlson echoed Orban’s vision of a world in deep cultural

crisis, with the fate of Western civilization supposedly in the balance;
that perceived peril is the glue that unites the transnational right.
Orban consolidated power through tactics that were procedurally
legal but, in substance, undercut the rule of law. He stacked the courts
with partisans and pressured, captured, or shut down independent me-
dia. Orban’s open assault on academic freedom—including banning
gender studies and evicting the Central European University from
Hungary—finds analogies in current
right-wing efforts in Republican-
controlled states to ban the teaching The United States cannot
of critical race theory and target lib- contemplate defeating its
eral and left-wing academics.
The guardrails designed to ward current authoritarian
off illiberalism have failed. The politi- challengers in a total war.
cal scientist R. Daniel Kelemen, for
example, points to how the eu, a sup-
posed paragon of liberal democratic norms, did essentially nothing to
prevent authorities in Hungary and Poland from incrementally weak-
ening their democracies. The European Parliament institutes region-
wide party groupings that effectively shield anti-eu parties, such as
Hungary’s Fidesz and Poland’s Law and Justice party, from sanction.
The common European labor market allows political opponents and
disgruntled citizens to leave by simply relocating to other European
countries, weakening the battle against illiberal policies at home.
These dynamics are not, in fact, all that different from those at play
in the U.S. federal system: the courts shield antidemocratic practices
such as extreme gerrymandering and targeted voter suppression, and
some Republican-controlled states have enacted laws designed to let
legislatures intervene in local election oversight under the pretense of
preventing fraud. Many of those Republican officials who have be-
come alarmed at the party’s sharp authoritarian turn have done little
or nothing in response for fear of personal political repercussions or
of damaging the party’s electoral prospects.
The elevation of Orban by American right-wing intellectuals and
television hosts is a high-profile illustration of how the dense intercon-
nections that form the core of the liberal order can facilitate the rise of
antidemocratic movements. Another is the membership of Eduardo
Bolsonaro, one of the sons of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, in a

Apply illiberally: Orban and Trump in Washington, D.C., May 2019
nationalist group founded by the U.S. reactionary populist Steve Ban-

non. Dark money from the United States underwrites illiberal parties
and movements abroad. At the same time, kleptocrats launder funds
into U.S. bank accounts, real estate, and even politics. This stokes pop-
ulism in the United States via its corrupting influence. Many oligarchs
and kleptocrats see the patrimonial governing style of reactionary pop-
ulists such as Trump as supportive of their interests and so are happy
to support them in any way they can. Russian financing, often fun-
neled through Kremlin-affiliated oligarchs, subsidizes right-wing and
culturally conservative organizations in Europe and North America
with the aim of undermining the liberal order.
As fissures widen in many ostensibly liberal democracies, a U.S.
foreign policy aimed at defending liberal democracy will require the
Biden administration—or any future Democratic administration—to
CAR L O S BAR R IA / R E U T E R S
take sides in the domestic politics of allied, democratic, and semi-

democratic countries. When the Obama administration tried this ap-
proach, its efforts were haphazard and ineffectual. The Biden
administration has notably refrained, at least publicly, from leverag-
ing Trump-era security commitments to Poland to pressure the ruling
Law and Justice party on the country’s democratic backsliding.
The Trump administration, on the other hand, openly endorsed

illiberal right-wing governments in Hungary and Poland; it is possi-
ble that Trump’s efforts to support Andrzej Duda in the 2020 Polish
presidential election helped him eke out a win over the more liberal
Rafal Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw. Neither the Trump admin-
istration nor the Trump-appointed ambassador to Hungary pressed
Orban to reverse his decision in 2018 to evict the Central European
University—established with money from George Soros—despite the
fact that the university represented the largest single U.S. investment
in higher education in post–Cold War Europe.
There is no question that a U.S. president who more openly and
substantively aligns with center-right, center-left, and liberal parties
overseas will risk further politicizing American foreign relations—
most notably with respect to the broad transatlantic agenda that still
commands support from influential Republicans. But as is the case
with many of the dilemmas created by rising illiberalism, trying to
avoid further politicizing this or polarizing that means, in practice,
handing a substantial advantage to illiberal forces.
ECHOES OF HISTORY
For many, this peculiar moment in the international order augurs the
coming of a new cold war, driven by an intensifying rivalry between
Beijing and Washington. But a better, albeit still strained, historical
analogy can be found in the “Twenty Years’ Crisis”—the fraught pe-
riod between World War I and World War II when democracies faced
multiple pressures, including the Great Depression, reactionary con-
servatism, revolutionary socialism, and growing international tensions.
Liberal democracies appeared rudderless, internally divided, and
generally incapable of rising to the challenge. They struggled to adapt
to globalizing technological forces, including new means of mass com-
munication that illiberal forces could use adroitly to their advantage.
International migration stoked nativism. Illiberal policies and ideas
were on the global offensive, spreading through old and new democ-
racies alike. The late 1920s and early 1930s saw democratic powers—
France, the United Kingdom, and the United States—do little to
block the rise of fascism abroad or prevent the slide of fledgling de-
mocracies into conservative authoritarianism.
The United States finds itself in a not entirely dissimilar position
today. Republicans spent the 2020 presidential campaign calling the

Democratic Party “communist” and associating their rivals with au-

thoritarian capitalist China; right-wing media claim that Beijing is
implicated in many of their favorite bête noires, including critical race
theory. For their part, Democrats tied Republicans, and especially
Trump, to the far-right ideology of white nationalism and invoked the
specter of extremist militias and other domestic militant groups. U.S.
policymakers struggle to pursue a coherent and effective foreign pol-
icy in defense of the liberal order for the simple reason that the Amer-
ican public is fundamentally divided.
This historical parallel even provides some limited grounds for opti-
mism. The standard story holds that the vast spending program of the
New Deal made liberal democracy attractive again; President Franklin
Roosevelt transformed the United States into an “arsenal of democracy.”
The United States, together with its allies, defeated Germany, Italy, and
Japan on the land and the sea and in the skies. This comprehensive de-
feat, as well as the ample publicity given to the atrocities committed by
the Axis powers, left fascism discredited and stigmatized.
Biden seems to favor this analogy. In his domestic policy, he has at-
tempted his own version of the New Deal through a combination of
several significant spending bills, including the American Rescue Plan,
the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and one other infrastructure
bill—which was in limbo at the time of this writing. In his foreign policy,
Biden wants to build a coalition of democracies under U.S. leadership to
meet the challenge of rising illiberalism and especially to oppose Chinese
and Russian efforts to reconstruct the international order along more
autocratic lines. The White House hopes that the meeting of leaders in
forums such as the Summit for Democracy will bolster this initiative.
ON WHOSE TERMS?
The odds, however, are not in the administration’s favor. The United
States remains the wealthiest and most powerful country in the
world, but China is challenging the United States’ influence over the
international order—and will continue to do so even if its dramatic
rise tapers into stagnation. Washington is reaping the costs of two
decades of failures in the Middle East and Central Asia. The United
States burned through truly staggering sums of money in those failed
overseas entanglements, ultimately purchasing the breakdown of
U.S. hegemony in the Middle East and the total collapse of its nation-
building project in Afghanistan.
But the domestic front should be even more worrisome for the
United States. The two parties may muddle through and avoid tanking
U.S. liberal democracy—no small achievement considering Republican
actions in the wake of the 2020 presidential election. There remains,
however, the overwhelming crush of intense political polarization,
hyperpartisan scorched-earth tactics, and legislative gridlock. These ills
have generated a host of further problems. Both U.S. allies and U.S.
rivals are acutely aware that any agreement they make with the United
States may not outlive the sitting administration. The U.S. Senate can-
not ratify treaties for the foreseeable future, which limits Washington’s
ability to attempt significant reforms of the international order, includ-
ing exercising consistent leadership on matters such as climate change.
After 30 years of worsening political polarization and dysfunction
in the country, the U.S. foreign policy establishment has failed to
reckon with this reality. Some acknowledge that promoting liberal
democracy is now a less relevant priority than preventing democratic
backsliding. But such policy debates still do not address the likeli-
hood that the next administration will reverse any new policy,
whether the consequences of such a reversal would be better or worse
than never enacting a new policy in the first place, or how a new
policy might be adjusted to make it harder to undo.
Rather than openly confronting this reliability problem, foreign policy
analysts float the idea, explicitly or implicitly, that a specific approach—
to managing U.S. relations with China, for instance, or to international
trade—will be the one that magically provides the basis for a new, bipar-
tisan consensus. But this puts the cart before the horse. If Americans
could forge a broadly shared understanding of international threats and
an agreement about the purpose of U.S. foreign policy, then there
wouldn’t be a serious domestic political crisis to solve in the first place.
A daunting set of problems resides within the structure of the lib-
eral order itself. The current arrangement is too rife with tensions, too
internally fragmented, and too asymmetrically vulnerable. In order to
survive, the liberal order will have to change.
U.S. officials who sincerely wish to defend the liberal order will
need to choose sides, both domestically and in the conduct of U.S.
foreign policy. In doing so, they will blur the distinction between lib-
eral and illiberal practices. They will need to break domestic norms,
such as not modifying the size and jurisdiction of the federal judiciary
because of its ideological disposition. They will also need to back away

from post–Cold War norms, such as limiting favoritism toward po-

litical factions in and among major democratic allies. And they will
need to do so with the clear understanding that these actions could
backfire and provide rhetorical cover for illiberal and antidemocratic
practices at home and abroad.
On the economic front, both Democrats and Republicans seem will-
ing to sacrifice some amount of openness, but with very different ends
in mind. Fortunately, most of the steps required to conserve the liberal
order—such as clamping down on the flow of foreign kleptocratic
money into the United States—would deal significant blows to external
illiberal forces, even if they’re conceptualized as domestic policies.
Grappling with domestic illiberal threats remains a thorny exer-
cise. Of course, the defense of liberal democracy has produced terrible
excesses in the past, including ugly repression and horrific violence.
U.S. officials adopted decidedly illiberal policies during the Red Scare
that followed World War I, when the specter of Bolshevism loomed
large. In trying to stem the rising right-wing extremist tide today, the
United States risks returning to those dark times. But the alternative
of inaction—Western liberalism’s failure to beat back fascism in the
1930s—remains a dangerous prospect.
History is an imperfect guide. Fascism was defeated—at least for a
time—on the battlefields of World War II. Had Hitler been less in-
terested in military conquest, fascist states might be a perfectly nor-
mal part of the current global landscape. The Soviet Union, for its
part, collapsed because of a combination of the inefficiencies of its
command economy, nationalist pressures, and policy choices that
turned out very poorly.
The United States cannot really contemplate defeating its current
authoritarian challengers in a total war, as that would likely produce a
catastrophic nuclear exchange. Its most important authoritarian
challenger, China, is a totally different kind of polity than the Soviet
Union was. China is wealthy and relatively dynamic, and although it
has its share of structural problems, it is not abundantly clear that its
shortcomings are any worse than those of the United States.
In short, neither of the historical routes to the ideological victory
of liberalism seems likely. This means that liberal democracies really
do need to assume that they will not retake the catbird seat of the
international order anytime soon. And so the question becomes not
whether the liberal order will change but on whose terms.∂
The Revolution Will Not
Be Privatized
Corporate Responsibility and Its Limits
Diane Coyle
I
n September 1970, the economist Milton Friedman wrote a semi-
nal essay entitled “The Social Responsibility of Business Is to
Increase Its Profits.” Company leaders, Friedman argued, should
be entirely concerned with making money for shareholders, not with
their businesses’ environmental, social, or broader economic impacts.
Friedman’s tract was influential—and damaging. Over the ensuing
five decades, corporations prioritized short-term profits even at the ex-
pense of their home countries, communities, and workers. CEO com-
pensation at the top 350 U.S. firms rose by 940 percent in the four
decades after 1978, compared with a 12 percent rise for the typical
worker over the same period—a change driven by the idea that giving
executives higher compensation would get the best performance. It is
hard to believe that these dramatic financial incentives at the top have
made much of a difference for the U.S. economy, looking at its perfor-
mance before and since the mid-1970s. But the pay bump shouldn’t be
a surprise. If greed is considered good, greed will become the new nor-
mal. The worldview Friedman advocated has undermined social norms
that allowed the capitalist market system to work for the majority.
But as the essay has passed its 50th anniversary, Friedman’s doctrine
might be in terminal decline. Amid the human and economic carnage
of the COVID-19 pandemic and the extreme weather events of the last
few years, sentiments in the financial markets appear to be shifting. In
December 2020, for example, Engine No. 1, an environmentalist hedge
fund, won three seats on ExxonMobil’s board after shareholders re-
belled against the oil giant’s reluctance to reduce its carbon footprint.
DIANE COYLE is Bennett Professor of Public Policy at the University of Cambridge and the
author of Cogs and Monsters: What Economics Is, and What It Should Be.

Diane Coyle
The Bank of England and the European Central Bank have asked fi-
nancial institutions to conduct stress tests for different climate-related
risk scenarios. The business world is also independently reevaluating
its purpose. Klaus Schwab, chair of the World Economic Forum, wrote
in Foreign Affairs in 2020 that companies must actively take “steps to
meet social and environmental goals” or risk having “employees, cli-
ents, and voters . . . force change on them from the outside.”
There is certainly a great deal of interest among businesses in how to
measure and report their societal impacts. Increasingly, companies are
flocking to adopt voluntary standards for environmental, social, and
governance (ESG) reporting, including those published by the Financial
Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures.
This means that in addition to reporting their financial returns, as pub-
licly listed companies are already required to do, many businesses now
attempt to measure and divulge how much carbon they emit, for ex-
ample, or how much plastic they use, or how many people of color sit
on their boards. These responsibility metrics become part of the profile
of a corporation and can help attract or dissuade potential investors.
Consequently, there is a rapidly growing industry of ESG advice from
consultancies and think tanks, and it will probably not be long before
regulators start to crystallize these metrics into a required standard.
The movement toward ESG reporting certainly highlights important
issues, such as climate change and the treatment of workers, and it is
welcome that corporations want to engage in the debate. But the belief
that companies can solve such pressing issues—through pursuing ESG
standards or otherwise—is deeply flawed. Despite purportedly having
good intentions, many corporations are not genuinely interested in bet-
tering the world, and some use ESG metrics or other sustainability
measures mainly to launder their reputations. Fixing some of the
world’s most vexing problems will require that businesses dramatically
alter their own practices, and it makes little sense to entrust systemic
reform to the very institutions that themselves require change.
Instead, action must come from elsewhere: namely, governments.
States must impose new regulations on the market economy to ensure
that businesses are delivering shared productivity and social progress.
Politicians will need to create laws that make markets work well and
embed values—such as environmental sustainability or higher wages
for low-income workers—that reflect the mainstream views of society.
Renewed regulatory activism must include restoring competition
Supply and demands: protesting in Dallas, Texas, May 2008

through effective antitrust enforcement, legislating for the national
interest over global profits, and tilting the balance of economic re-
turns from older, wealthier generations to younger, poorer ones. It
should also mean regulations to fight climate change, such as emission
limits, mandates to end the sale of internal combustion engine vehi-
cles, or bans on the use of certain materials.
This doesn’t mean that governments should discourage ESG stan-
dards and reporting. Officials should still urge manufacturers to dis-
close, say, the amount of pollution they produce and set reduction
targets. But for the speed and scale of change that the world needs,
states will have to force corporations to take steps that they would
never agree to take on their own. The job of creating a more just and
sustainable world cannot be outsourced to the private sector.
HOW NUMBERS LIE

At first glance, it seems possible that mandating ESG reporting
MIKE STONE / REUTERS
would force businesses to be socially responsible. If corporations

were required to disclose their societal and environmental impact,
firms or people looking to invest in sustainable ways could make
apples-to-apples comparisons and buy accordingly. Journalists might
more easily scrutinize how companies affect their surrounding com-

Diane Coyle
munities and the wider world. This could, in turn, incentivize ex-
ecutives to cut back on harmful corporate practices.
But the value of relying on required ESG reporting is questionable
for several reasons. The first is temporal: the world’s problems are
pressing, and it is still far from settled what the regulatory and gover-
nance framework for the corporation
of the future will be. Laws move
Data is not objective; it more slowly than public opinion, and
does not merely capture although the intellectual case for a
facts about the world. broader definition than Friedman’s of
corporate purpose is advancing in the
academic world, plenty of politicians
and lawmakers (not to mention executives) have yet to be persuaded.
Change in legislation and legal enforcement may be slow.
The second problem with mandated ESG reporting is more funda-
mental: the outcomes it aims to measure are broad and complex,
whereas metrics are by definition tightly specified. There are inherent
challenges in capturing complex, interrelated economic, social, and en-
vironmental phenomena—with all the nuances of interpretation in-
volved—in easy-to-produce metrics. This means that even if states
could quickly implement ESG requirements, it is unclear how useful
they would be. The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals,
to which much of ESG reporting is linked, clearly demonstrate the chal-
lenge. There are 17 of them, all worthy aims, including eliminating
hunger, producing affordable and clean energy, and fostering respon-
sible consumption and production. They are divided into 169 targets,
measured by 232 indicators. But although progress on most (although
not all) of them can be tracked, the monitoring is imperfect, and there
are tradeoffs between many of the targets. This would also be the case
for ESG targets. The costs companies incur in adopting new production
methods for environmental reasons, for instance, might make it less
likely that workers down the supply chain would receive wage increases.
Even when there are no tradeoffs between the targets, reductive
metrics can have damaging consequences, as the political scientist
James Scott explained in his masterly book Seeing Like a State. The
social world, which is embedded in the natural environment, is messy
and disorderly, and so imposing order through classification and
measurement requires shaving off or tucking in many rough edges. Scott
gives many examples of how this has backfired. To hit forest manage-
ment targets, for example, Germany grew standard trees in ever more
standard ways. Given the narrow criteria used to determine which
forests were successful—namely the ease of controlling them and
their ability to supply timber—this system made forests more produc-
tive and profitable at first. But it ultimately harmed biodiversity, and
much of what was grown died in the longer term.
Similarly, the seven-decade-long practice of measuring economic
activity in terms of GDP has led states to overlook some of the most
important consequences of business and policy decisions. GDP is not
a natural object; rather, it is an intellectual construct. For example, it
decrees unpaid work in the home and natural environmental proc
esses, such as pollination by bees and climate cooling by forests, as
outside the economy because there are no market prices for them. As
a result, the worlds of policymaking and scholarship have failed to see
the importance of laws and regulations that would enable higher
growth and living standards over time. Relying on this indicator alone
harms the ability of governments to deliver prosperity.
Ultimately, what metrics like GDP perhaps best illustrate is not what
they purport to measure but instead that data itself is not objective; it
does not merely capture facts about the world. Artificial intelligence
systems trained on existing data, for example, often discriminate against
disadvantaged social groups: an algorithm used by many hospitals was
found to consistently predict that Black patients needed less health
care. Any data reflects the social order of which it is a product, so a bi-
ased society will replicate its biases in its data. But quantification gives
the impression of objectivity, obscuring the tradeoffs and definitional
decisions that go into turning actions and outcomes into numbers.
These concerns are clearly applicable to ESG metrics. For example, if
a company pledges to avoid child labor, the question arises: What are
the boundaries of the universe for which the company can be held re-
sponsible—just its direct supply chain or also the supply chains of its
manufacturers? What responsibilities and powers should any one com-
pany have to monitor the activities of its suppliers? If a multinational
business promises to decrease unemployment, is it more responsible
for creating jobs in the country where its headquarters is domiciled or
instead in lower-income countries where it could contribute to the bet-
terment of many more people’s lives? What is the right tradeoff be-
tween the interests of current or future employees and those of
pensioners? No universal ethical principle applies to these questions,

Diane Coyle
despite the impression often given in the ballooning literature on ESG

standards. No doubt this is why the Task Force on Climate-Related
Financial Disclosures recommends reporting decision processes, risk
management, and transparency rather than many specific metrics.
Some companies may attempt to make good-faith judgments when
resolving these tricky questions. But others will not, and the defini-
tional difficulties highlight a bigger issue: that corporations will ma-
nipulate measures or selectively choose specific targets in order to
appear responsible without making decisions that would eat into their
profits. If sustainability is translated into a metric such as “decreased
use of plastic,” for example, what is to stop a company from simply
choosing a different environmentally damaging material? A business
might switch from packaging waste in recyclable plastic to packaging
it in bulky cardboard, which requires more energy to process. If a city
must increase its carbon emissions as a result, it isn’t clear how the
business reduced its environmental footprint.
Greenwashing—the name for this type of reputational launder-
ing—isn’t a speculative concern. The Adani Group, one of India’s
biggest and most powerful energy companies, says it follows re-
sponsible ESG principles and has pledged to go carbon neutral.
Meanwhile, the company is pushing ahead with some of the world’s
biggest new coal projects with financing from major international
banks. Starbucks announced a new strawless lid in a bid to cut back
on plastic, but it quickly became apparent that the new top used
more plastic than the previous lid-and-straw combination. (The
company says the new lids are easier to recycle.) Revealing what
was an especially cynical ploy, ExxonMobil executives told under-
cover journalists that the company endorsed a carbon tax precisely
because it thought the tax would never pass in the U.S. Congress,
making it an easy way to improve the company’s reputation with-
out facing any real consequences.
ALL THAT POWER

At root, demanding that companies use ESG metrics would effectively
be asking private entities to legislate social outcomes. The calls for
companies to put social aims at the heart of their activities mean
placing small numbers of executives in powerful political, economic,
and social roles. But business leaders should not be left to make what
are, in fact, important collective decisions.
The issue is illustrated in a microcosm by Facebook. Mark Zucker-

berg controls Facebook personally and therefore has significant power
to shape the culture, social norms, and political outcomes in many
countries. Many progressives were delighted when his company banned
President Donald Trump from its site, but they still dislike Zuckerberg
and his business for offering a plat-
form to right-wing sources. Conser-
vatives, meanwhile, would be thrilled
The capitalist system as it
if the company brought the former exists today is not
president back online, and many hate delivering for society.
Zuckerberg for purportedly discrimi-
nating against their views. But the ac-
rimony over Facebook and its CEO is emblematic of a bigger issue: no
one private company or individual should ever have so much power.
To address this problem, states could curb the power of gigantic
corporations through stronger competition policies. This would mean
abandoning the extreme form of the “consumer welfare standard,”
which holds that corporations can continuously expand so long as their
behavior doesn’t result in higher prices for final buyers. The doctrine
has led to immense concentrations of both economic and political
power, as very large companies have cemented their dominant market
positions and used that weight to lobby over how they are regulated.
This standard is now being strongly challenged by some antitrust ex-
perts and officials, including Lina Khan, chair of the Federal Trade
Commission, and other so-called neo-Brandeisian thinkers. Legisla-
tors in the United Kingdom, the European Union, and other jurisdic-
tions are also actively considering more interventionist approaches,
such as requiring that certain large companies notify authorities in ad-
vance of planned takeovers or prohibiting platforms from favoring
their own products over those of competitors.
But stronger antitrust enforcement is only one of the new policies
that governments should impose on the private sector. Financial com-
panies are impoverishing their clients by selling products, such as cer-
tain kinds of derivatives, that ultimately take money from customers,
rather than helping them invest properly. Food and drug manufactur-
ers are damaging their customers’ health through their contributions
to the obesity and opioid epidemics. Technology firms are polluting
rather than enlightening the sphere of public debate. The capitalist
system as it exists today is not delivering for society, even before tak-

Diane Coyle
ing environmental damage into account. States cannot and should not
tolerate the way the private sector operates. They need to make spe-
cific interventions—such as better enforcement of food standards and
more active consumer protection in finance—to help their residents.
The problem is that despite all the criticisms of the business world,
many people believe that companies are more effective than govern-
ments at achieving desired changes. According to the latest annual
Edelman Trust Barometer, survey respondents around the world had
more faith in businesses than in governments or politicians. Indeed,
according to the 2021 findings, the business world is the only institu-
tion now seen as both ethical and competent despite the hugely in-
creased presence of the state in economic life since the start of the
pandemic. (Nongovernmental organizations are seen as ethical but
not competent, and the media and politicians are seen as neither.) It
is therefore important that corporations continue to reflect on their
purpose and monitor their impact on society.
And some corporate involvement in public life can be positive. The
business world, for example, helped drive acceptance of LGBTQ rights
in the United States by banning discrimination within its own work-
places well before the government took action and then pressing pol-
iticians to repeal anti-transgender laws. If corporate actions can do the
same for intractable environmental and social challenges, activists
should accept the help. Businesses can be powerful advocates when it
comes to forcing legislative action, and calls for businesses to take the
lead in bringing about change reflect a welcome recognition that their
narrow profit-driven purpose has failed society.
But even Friedman understood that it would be dangerous to have
businesses become too involved in addressing public issues. Part of
his argument against corporate social responsibility was that it was
undemocratic. Corporate money spent in pursuit of anything other
than profit, he argued, was tantamount to taxing shareholders (or cus-
tomers and employees), and taxing and spending are properly the
business of government—not the business of businesses. “Here the
businessman—self-selected or appointed directly or indirectly by
stockholders—is to be simultaneously legislator, executive and jurist,”
Friedman wrote. “He is to decide whom to tax by how much and for
what purpose, and he is to spend the proceeds.”
Friedman was wrong, of course, to argue that businesses had no
duty to think beyond profit. Companies are important social institu-
tions, shaping how people work, what they buy, how healthy they are,
and what kind of communities they live in. Corporate executives
should consider the moral aspects of every choice they make. But some
of the questions raised about corporate responsibility and ESG report-
ing do run headlong into political choices, and his point still has force.
The movement for ESG reporting reflects a vacuum in political
leadership. To reach a zero-carbon economy, the state cannot count on
businesses to voluntarily pare back profits. Governments will need to
force companies to invest in new technologies and ways of operating
and to pay higher energy costs during the transition. In order to re-
store healthy markets for customers and workers, states will need to
cut into the revenues of dominant businesses. Happy talk about cor-
porate purpose and responsibility cannot serve as a distraction from
hard choices. Business leaders need to play their part, but so do po-
litical leaders and voters. Like it or not, everyone is in this together.∂

All Against All
The Sectarian Resurgence in the
Post-American Middle East
Vali Nasr
T
he Biden administration’s mantra for the Middle East is sim-
ple: “end the ‘forever wars.’” The White House is preoccupied
with managing the challenge posed by China and aims to dis-
entangle the United States from the Middle East’s seemingly endless
and unwinnable conflicts. But the United States’ disengagement
threatens to leave a political vacuum that will be filled by sectarian ri-
valries, paving the way for a more violent and unstable region.
The struggle for geopolitical primacy between Iran’s Shiite theoc-
racy and the countries led by Sunni Arabs and, more recently, Sunni
Turkey is stoking conflict across the region—eroding social compacts,
worsening state dysfunction, and catalyzing extremist movements.
Both sides have weaponized religious identity for their own purposes,
using it to rally partisans and bolster their influence across the region.
As a result, the broader Middle East remains a tinderbox.
Although Iran retains the upper hand, challenges to its position are
building across the region. Sunnis have tired of virulent extremism, but
the anger that fueled the rise of the Islamic State (also known as ISIS)
remains undiminished; new insurgencies in the broken parts of the re-
gion will undoubtedly harness that rage once more. Sunnis in Iraq,
Lebanon, and Syria are increasingly chafing at moves by Tehran and its
allies to tighten their hold on power. And terrorism has emerged in
Afghanistan again, as the country slides into chaos in the wake of the
Taliban’s victory. Without any political process to defuse these tensions,
they are bound to erupt in new waves of tumult and bloodshed.
Israel’s intervention in these sectarian conflicts on the side of the
Sunni powers has only added fuel to the fire. Because of Israel’s in-
VALI NASR is Majid Khadduri Professor of Middle East Studies and International Affairs at
the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.
All Against All
volvement, regional stability is even more subject to the fate of Iran’s

nuclear program. Washington and Jerusalem are already discussing a
“Plan B” for if a diplomatic settlement remains beyond reach. This
path would place Iran and the United States on a collision course—as
well as exacerbate sectarian tensions, deepen societal divisions, and
trigger new conflicts from the Levant to Afghanistan.
Washington’s desire to do less in the Middle East comes at a time
when China and Russia are leaning into the region, a hard-line gov-
ernment in Iran is digging in its heels, and the Sunni Arab states
are less confident than ever about U.S. security guarantees. Unless
the United States paves the way for a more stable regional order—
beginning by striking a deal over Iran’s nuclear program—it may
find itself dragged back into the Middle East’s many conflicts de-
spite its best efforts to walk away.
WEAPONIZING ISLAM
The origins of the rivalry between the Shiites and the Sunnis go back
to the very beginnings of Islam, and over the centuries, the two sects
have evolved distinct interpretations of Islamic law and religious prac-
tice. The strife between the two groups today, however, is rooted not
in theology but in a struggle for power. Shiism and Sunnism are
prominent identity markers that shape political allegiances in divided
societies. The intensity of sectarian fighting has ebbed and flowed
over the past two decades, but sectarianism’s salience to the region’s
politics has not waned—nor has the struggle between Iran and its
Sunni-led rivals, which both feeds on and fuels this schism. These two
forces are different sides of the same coin.
It was the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq that allowed Iran to dramati-
cally expand its influence in the Arab world. Ever since the United
States brought down the authoritarian regime that guaranteed Sunni-
minority rule in Baghdad, Tehran has expertly played on sectarian
loyalties to empower a network of armed proxies that now stretches
from Lebanon and Syria to Iraq and Yemen, forming what Jordan’s
King Abdullah once called a “Shiite crescent.” In doing so, Iran has
empowered Shiites at the expense of Sunnis across the region and
enhanced its own influence over that of rivals such as Saudi Arabia,
Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The Arab world’s push for democracy and good government, the
so-called Arab Spring, led autocrats, threatened by the prospect of

Vali Nasr
change, to further weaponize sectarianism. Syrian President Bashar

al-Assad stoked fear of Sunnis to scare the Syrian Alawite commu-
nity, to which he belongs and which traces its roots to Shiism, into
unflinching support for his regime. In Bahrain and Yemen, rulers
justified violent crackdowns by accusing Shiite protesters of being
Iranian proxies. Iran and its Arab rivals reinforced this dynamic by
arraying themselves behind their re-
spective Shiite and Sunni clients,
Washington cannot push seeing their coreligionists as tools to
Riyadh to reach a deal protect their regional influence.
with Tehran if it cannot Iran’s regional footprint has ex-
panded in tandem with its nuclear
do so itself. program. Although the United States
effectively checked Iran’s nuclear am-
bitions in 2015 through an internationally brokered deal, containing its
regional ambitions has proved elusive. Washington’s insistence that re-
gional matters not be included in the nuclear talks incensed its Arab
allies, which were then on the losing end of sectarian proxy wars in
Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. U.S. President Barack Obama reinforced their
fears about Washington’s commitment to assist them in these struggles
when he counseled that the Iranians and the Saudis needed “to find an
effective way to share the neighborhood.”
The Sunni Arab states saw the nuclear accord as the bookend to the
Obama administration’s earlier refusal to topple the Assad regime. In
Arab leaders’ eyes, these two decisions tipped the regional balance of
power decidedly in Tehran’s favor: the failure to topple Assad empow-
ered Tehran’s Shiite allies in other countries, and the nuclear deal failed
to restrain Iran’s regional meddling. To the Arab leaders, it seemed as
if the United States was blessing Iranian hegemony in the Middle East.
U.S. President Donald Trump was sympathetic to that view. He
withdrew from the nuclear accord in 2018 and said a new deal would
have to address Iran’s regional role. His “maximum pressure” cam-
paign imposed crippling sanctions on Iran and aimed to make it im-
possible for Tehran to financially sustain its position in the Arab
world. Under Trump, Washington took several steps to restrain Iran,
including carrying out a drone strike in 2020 that killed Qasem So-
leimani, the head of the Quds Force, the expeditionary branch of
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Abu Mahdi al
Muhandis, a senior Iraqi Shiite militia commander.
All Against All
The Trump administration succeeded in battering Iran’s economy, in-

creasing social misery and political discontent. But its attempt to force a
broader Iranian retreat from the Arab world failed utterly. On the con-
trary, Iran responded by escalating regional tensions: it attacked tankers
in the Persian Gulf, targeted oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, and launched
an audacious missile strike on Iraqi air bases that housed U.S. troops,
bringing Iran and the United States closer to war than ever before.
Iran emerged from the Trump years more aggressive and lethal. Since
the United States left the nuclear deal, Iran has increased its stockpile of
enriched uranium, expanded its nuclear infrastructure, and gained criti-
cal nuclear know-how. It is now perilously close to possessing enough
fissile material for a nuclear bomb.
It was the decision to scrap the nuclear deal, not the decision to sign
it in the first place, that has made Iran a larger force in the region.
Tehran’s nuclear and regional ambitions have advanced hand in hand:
a credible nuclear program provides an umbrella that protects its prox-
ies across the region, which in turn boost Iran’s influence further. Thus,
the more expansive and resilient the nuclear umbrella, the more effec-
tive the proxies that operate under its protection. By reducing the
scope of Iran’s nuclear program, the 2015 nuclear deal also reduced the
protection Tehran could provide its proxy forces. With the deal in
abeyance and Iran rapidly growing its nuclear program, its regional
forces will become more brazen.
Iran’s hard-liners also consolidated their power during the Trump
years. They saw their worldview vindicated by the “maximum pres-
sure” campaign: to them, it constituted proof that the United States
was pursuing regime change in Tehran and would not relent until the
Islamic Republic collapsed. This rendered engagement with Wash-
ington futile and meant that Iran could secure its interests only
through confrontation with the United States and its allies. Iran thus
emerged from the Trump era determined to continue with its nuclear
program and strengthen its position in the region.
Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s new president, made it clear during his speech
to the UN General Assembly in September that he believes the re-
gional balance of power is tilting in Tehran’s favor. Evoking the Janu-
ary 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol and the images of Afghan civilians falling
from U.S. aircraft fleeing Afghanistan, Raisi said these scenes sent a
clear message to the world: “The United States’ hegemonic system has
no credibility, inside or outside the country.”

Vali Nasr
As such statements suggest, Iran’s new government has adopted a

triumphalist perspective on events in the Middle East. In its view,
Iranian intervention in Syria saved Assad in the face of a concerted
American, European, Turkish, and Sunni Arab push to topple him. In
Yemen, a brutal U.S.-backed Saudi military campaign failed to change
the reality that the Houthis are firmly entrenched in the capital of Sa-
naa and almost all of the country’s north. Iran has also sustained its
dominant position in Iraq and Lebanon, despite economic pressures
and what it views as meddling from its rivals.
The imperative of maintaining Iran’s influence in the Arab world is
now embedded in the strategic calculus of the country’s deep state, and
the militias that Tehran has built for that task are facts on the ground
across the region. But despite all of Iran’s recent victories, the sectarian
conflicts that are racking the Middle East are far from over.
PRIMED TO EXPLODE
Iran is hardly the only party behind the rise of sectarian conflict across
the Middle East. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE have all
supported Sunni factions in the Arab world. Turkey and wealthy Sunni
businessmen in the Persian Gulf have funded some of the more ex-
treme Sunni factions that sought to topple Assad—including ISIS. That
group’s virulent anti-Shiism and its promise to resurrect the Islamic
caliphate, which served as the seat of Sunni power in earlier eras, ap-
pealed to disenfranchised Sunnis in the expanse that stretches from
Damascus to Baghdad. In the end, ISIS was undone by an alliance of
convenience formed by Russia, the United States, and Iran, the last of
which fought ISIS alongside its local Shiite allies in Iraq and Syria.
But although Tehran has so far been able to come out on top in the
regional struggle for influence, it may find itself under increasing pres-
sure in the years ahead. The Sunni Persian Gulf monarchies, along
with Israel and Turkey, all have a stake in the outcome of the sectarian
conflicts racking the Arab world. With the United States signaling that
it will not try to dislodge Iran from the various places where it has
entrenched itself, regional actors are preparing to take up the gauntlet.
In Syria, the Assad regime is attempting to consolidate its authority,
but the country remains a sectarian powder keg. Fighting could re-
sume over control of the northwestern governorate of Idlib and the
Kurdish-controlled region in the northeastern part of the country. Tur-
key has pushed back against Assad’s attempts to take over Idlib, bol-
All Against All
stering its claim to be the defender of Sunni rights in Syria. Israel has
also been drawn into the vortex of the Syrian conflict, as it grows in-
creasingly uneasy with Iran’s expanding military footprint there.
Meanwhile, the country’s majority Sunni population, which lives in
the parts of the country devastated by the decadelong war, remains
disenfranchised and impoverished.
The fate of Syria is tied to that of Iraq. The central Iraqi govern-
ment’s victory against Sunni jihadis served only to underscore its de-
pendence on military support from Iran and the United States and
also came at the cost of bolstering the influence of the country’s Shi-
ite militias. The Iraqis have managed to temper sectarian conflict for
now, but its embers are glowing bright just below the surface. Recent
national elections also highlighted the tenuousness of the political
status quo. In advance of voting in October, the influential Grand
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and the Shiite religious establishment en-
couraged Iraqis to head to the polls—but those pleas fell on deaf ears.
Public apathy resulted in record-low turnout, which gave a boost to
the most sectarian political figures in the country: the maverick cleric
Muqtada al-Sadr and former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. The
only silver lining was that the parties affiliated with Iranian-backed
Shiite militias also did poorly. That has, however, given them a mo-
tive to destabilize the country—as shown from a recent attempt to
assassinate the country’s prime minister.
Sadr’s ascension does not augur well for sectarian peace in Iraq.
Although he has fashioned himself as a nationalist, he equates Iraq’s
national interests with his Shiite community’s right to rule the coun-
try. His militia was at the forefront of the sectarian civil war that en-
gulfed Iraq in 2006, and he does not intend to cede power to assuage
Sunnis. Although he wants autonomy from Iran, he will be confronted
with rival factions at home and maneuvering from the Sunni monar-
chies of the Persian Gulf, who have opposed Shiite control of Iraq. So
his inclination will be to rely on Tehran.
The growing tumult in Lebanon also portends instability, but not a
lessening of Iranian influence. The country’s dominant political actor
is Hezbollah, which has built up its military capacity over the years
with generous Iranian backing. The Lebanese Shiite paramilitary
group has performed well in wars against Israel, and its vast arsenal of
missiles remains a menacing deterrent to Israeli military action against
Iran. Hezbollah has also successfully deployed its fighters on behalf of

Vali Nasr
Sect appeal: Sadr in Najaf, Iraq, October 2021

Iranian allies across the Arab world, notably in Iraq and Syria, becom-
ing even more indispensable to Tehran.
But Hezbollah is also a political force in Lebanon, complicit in the
economic crisis that has corroded the country’s state and society. The
country’s Christian and Sunni communities have long decried Hezbol-
lah’s pro-Iran loyalties and insistence on functioning as a state within a
state. Growing numbers of Lebanese now blame the group for under-
mining the official investigation into the devastating blast at the Beirut
port in August 2020, which destroyed large parts of the city. Hezbollah
will not relinquish power without a fight; its hold on the Shiite com-
munity remains strong, and Iran is committed to supporting the organ
ization. Lebanon has long been prone to paroxysms of violence, and it
is not hard to see how current events are setting the stage for another
bout of sectarian conflict there.
In Yemen, a civil war has become a proxy war. On one side is the
ALAA AL-MARJANI / REUT E RS
central government, which is backed by Saudi Arabia. On the other are

Houthi tribespeople, who hail from the country’s north, which is dom-
inated by members of the Zaidi Shiite sect, and who enjoy support
from Iran. The war took on an overtly sectarian cast in 2015, when a
coalition of states led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE intervened to pre-
vent a Houthi victory and the establishment of an Iranian beachhead
All Against All
on the Arabian Peninsula. Their campaign has devastated Yemen—but

it has not vanquished the Houthis, whose reliance on Iran has only
grown during the fighting. When the war ends, the Houthis will hold
sway over significant parts of Yemen and will have a large say in its
politics. The glass will be half full for Iran and the Shiite side of the
regional ledger and half empty for Saudi Arabia and its Sunni allies.
As the Sunni Arab states look to even the playing field, they are
increasingly warming to a powerful ally in the struggle against Iran:
Israel, which has placed itself squarely in the middle of the burgeoning
regional tussle by launching air raids against Iranian bases in Iraq and
Syria and carrying out assassinations, cyberattacks, and industrial sab-
otage to slow the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. Tehran has thus
far limited its responses against Israel to cyberattacks and attacks on its
ships in the Persian Gulf, but the situation could quickly escalate—not
necessarily into direct war between Iran and Israel but perhaps to
clashes between both side’s tacit partners in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria
and to Iranian attacks against Israel’s new allies in the Persian Gulf.
THE SUNNI BACKLASH

In the midst of all of this, the Sunni Arab states are in search of new
strategies to protect their interests. They have thus far relied on the
United States to contain the expansion of Iran’s regional influence, an
expansion Washington itself set in motion when it invaded Iraq. But
the U.S. departure from Afghanistan, talk of a reduced U.S. military
presence in Iraq, and the Biden administration’s desire to end the “for-
ever wars” have compelled Saudi Arabia and the UAE to start talking to
Iran in the hopes of reducing tensions and buying time to build their
own regional capabilities.
These talks have come after years of proxy wars across the region,
Saudi and UAE support for the American strangulation of Iran’s econ-
omy, and Iranian attacks within Saudi and UAE territory. They there-
fore represent an important effort to reduce tensions. Saudi Arabia
wants Iran to lean on the Houthis to end the war in Yemen and to
bring an end to drone attacks on its territory. Iran, in turn, wants full
normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia. A breakthrough is not
close at hand, largely because the talks are happening in the shadow
of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States. The two
sides continue to meet, however, and have identified potential first
steps in a rapprochement, such as the opening of consulates to facili-

Vali Nasr
tate religious tourism. The Biden administration has supported the

dialogue, but Washington cannot push Riyadh to reach a deal with
Tehran if it cannot do so itself.
The specter of Sunni extremism also continues to worry Iran. The Tali-
ban’s victory was a boon for Sunni militancy across the region: the Afghan
group’s history is mired in bloody sectarian violence, and it sees Shiism as
outside the pale of Islam. Although the Taliban no longer openly espouse
hostility to Shiism and have forged ties
with Iran, their return to power has
The root cause of the been marked by a purge of Shiite Ha
Middle East’s troubles zaras from government jobs, the closure
remains unresolved. of their businesses, and their expulsion
from their homes and villages. Although
the latest sectarian violence in the coun-
try, such as the deadly bomb attacks on Shiite mosques, has been blamed
on an ISIS affiliate known as Islamic State Khorasan, or IS-K, it still under-
scores the potential for a wider sectarian conflict in Afghanistan.
The Sunni Arab states are also seeking strategic depth by mending
fences with Turkey, which under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan con-
siders itself to be a regional power and a defender of Sunni preroga-
tives. Erdogan’s Turkey sees itself as the heir to the Ottoman Empire,
which until 1924 was the seat of the Islamic caliphate, the symbolic
heart of Sunni power. It also maintains close ties to the Muslim Broth-
erhood, the Arab world’s most important Islamist force. During the
Arab Spring, Turkey fashioned itself as the model for the Arab world,
supporting popular demands for democracy and the Muslim Brother-
hood’s ambitions for power. Later on, it also took Qatar’s side when its
Persian Gulf neighbors imposed a blockade on it.
These policies angered the Persian Gulf monarchies, which per-
ceived Turkey as a rival for leadership of the Sunni world. This inter-
necine bickering even at times overshadowed the sectarian rivalry with
Iran; in fact, Ankara’s relationship with Tehran has generally been
warmer than its ties with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Turkey’s competi-
tion with its Sunni rivals has brought it into every arena in which sec-
tarianism is at play, as Erdogan’s government has staked its claim to
influence in Iraq, Lebanon, and, most recently, Afghanistan.
Turkey has been a bulwark against Iran’s influence. Turkey has used
its military muscle in Iraq and Syria effectively: although it cannot
match Iran’s proxy power, its military, economic, and diplomatic capa-
All Against All
bilities have ensured that it maintains an influential role in the Middle

East. The Sunni Arab states, by comparison, have failed to check Ira-
nian power in any meaningful way. Their investment in the Syrian
opposition came to naught, and Saudi Arabia abandoned Lebanon,
failed to gain a foothold in Iraq, and has stumbled in the war in Yemen.
The Sunni Arab states, however, continue to exercise influence in
Washington, and they are bolstering that strategic depth with intelli-
gence and military cooperation with Israel. But on the ground, they
can only hope to slow Iran’s progress, not reverse it.
LEAVING ON GOOD TERMS

The United States cannot mitigate all the dangers looming in the Mid-
dle East. But it should avoid making things worse. A smaller American
role in the region may be inevitable, but the way in which Washington
pulls up its stakes will matter. To many in the Middle East, American
withdrawal is a shorthand for Washington abandoning the region,
where it has previously defended against threats from the Soviet
Union, Iran, Iraq, and, most recently, ISIS. Even if the United States
continues to maintain a large military presence in the region, its com-
mitment to using military force is increasingly open to question.
That strategic confusion is an opening for Iran and its proxies. It
will also invite new entrants into the fray, such as Russia and Turkey.
There is no ready substitute for the United States’ containment strat-
egy, which for over four decades has served as the region’s de facto se-
curity architecture. The best Washington can aim for is to discourage
regional rivalries from intensifying, in the hope that relative calm could
provide an opportunity for new regional frameworks to develop. For
this reason, U.S. efforts to back away from enforcing containment
must go hand in hand with a diplomatic surge to diminish and resolve
conflicts between regional powers.
A nuclear deal with Iran remains the most important deterrent to
greater regional instability. There are understandable reasons why the
Biden administration may be hesitant about returning to the 2015 nu-
clear deal. Some of the accord’s restrictions on Iran are set to expire
before the end of President Joe Biden’s first term, and the lifting of
sanctions that is required as part of the deal would invite a maelstrom
of bipartisan criticism. For these reasons, the administration says it
wants a “longer and stronger” deal. Iran, however, is interested only in
a restoration of the 2015 deal—but this time with American guarantees

Vali Nasr
that the next administration will not upend the deal again. A dead-
lock—or, worse, the collapse of talks—would put Iran and the United
States on a dangerous path to confrontation that would inevitably em-
broil the Arab world and inflame sectarianism.
The Biden administration has encouraged regional actors to talk to
one another. But these dialogues will not be sustained if the effort to
restore the nuclear deal falters. The first victim will be stability in Iraq
and Lebanon, which requires consensus among Shiite and Sunni stake-
holders. For the Biden administration to extricate the United States
from the Middle East, it needs to establish a modicum of regional
stability—and that effort must begin with returning Iran and the
United States to mutual compliance with the 2015 deal.
For over four decades, the United States saw the Middle East as
vital to its national interests. It built alliances with Arab states to con-
tain Iran, keep Islamism at bay, and manage the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict. The American strategy was most successful when it was able
to maintain a stable balance of power between Iran and its Arab neigh-
bors. Ever since the United States undermined that balance by invad-
ing Iraq in 2003, it has been trying to restore it—and now, faced with
other urgent global challenges, it is abandoning the effort altogether.
There is ample reason to embrace this strategic recalibration. It is too
costly to pursue an elusive balance of power, especially since the Mid-
dle East is no longer as vital to American national interests.
But leaving the region to its own devices is a dangerous gambit.
Without a new security arrangement, chaos and conflict will be the
order of the day. A recrudescence of Islamic extremism, the specter of
further state collapse, wars large and small over territory and resources,
and open conflict between Iran and Israel will have catastrophic secu-
rity and humanitarian consequences that will inevitably demand re-
newed U.S. attention. If the United States wants to shrug off the burden
of sustaining the Middle East’s balance of power, then it should look for
a sustainable alternative—an arrangement that can end the region’s
most dangerous conflicts and set in place rules of the game for a work-
able regional order. That task must start with defusing the conflict that
represents the greatest threat to the region: the standoff with Iran.∂
India’s Stalled Rise
How the State Has Stifled Growth
F
or much of the first decade of the twenty-first century, In-
dia’s economy captivated the world’s imagination. Other
countries looked on enviously as India became the fastest-
growing free-market democracy, seemingly vaulting effortlessly
from the status of a nation mired in poverty into that of a high-tech,
car-owning, middle-class society. Powered by information technol-
ogy companies such as Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, and
Wipro, the country was poised to be a global player, perhaps even
an economic superpower.
But then came the global financial crisis of 2008. India’s three
decade-long structural transformation ground to a halt and remained
at a standstill for more than a decade, as the initial shock was com-
pounded by years of poor economic management. By the time the
COVID-19 pandemic struck, the world had turned its attention away,
with India seemingly disappearing from the global economic map.
In 2021, however, India suddenly reappeared. Foreign portfolio
managers, convinced that the country was on the move again, funneled
money into its stock market, sending it soaring. Venture capitalists
poured money into “digitech” (digital technology) startups, seizing on
India’s unique combination of computer engineering talent, dynamic
entrepreneurs, and market potential. Indeed, a new “unicorn”—a
startup valued at more than $1 billion—seems to appear every month,
in cloud computing, education, entertainment, finance, payments,
tourism. Altogether, there are now nearly 70 such unicorns in India,
more than in any other country except China and the United States.
ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN is a Senior Fellow at Brown University and served as Chief
Economic Adviser to the Government of India from 2014 to 2018.
JOSH FELMAN is a Principal at JH Consulting and was the International Monetary Fund’s
Resident Representative in India from 2006 to 2008.

Meanwhile, international manufacturing firms have also started to

look toward India, as they seek to diversify their production away
from China. After all, with its huge domestic market, sizable pool of
skilled, English-speaking managers, and vast reservoir of young, low-
skilled workers, India seems well suited to produce labor-intensive
export goods. All this has left many asking: Is India back?
The question is far more difficult to answer than some of the re-
cent economic data suggest. Without a doubt, India has made impres-
sive recent progress in building the “hardware” of economic
success—its physical and digital infrastructure, its ability to provide
tangible basic goods to its population, and its strong base of skilled
engineers and entrepreneurs. Yet at the same time, the country con-
tinues to struggle to fix its “software,” the crucial economic frame-
work under which domestic entrepreneurs and foreign firms must
operate. Policies are changed abruptly; rules are altered to favor cer-
tain firms. As a result, domestic entrepreneurs and foreign companies
have been reluctant to undertake the investments needed to exploit
India’s rapidly advancing hardware. Whether India manages to boom
again and become a serious alternative to China will depend on
whether the country can finally overcome the long-standing defects
in its policy software. If not, the recent growth spurt is likely to prove
another false start in a country of immense promise.
INDIA’S LOST DECADE

To answer the question of whether India is back, it is important to
first understand when and why India went away. The answer lies in
plans that went badly wrong. During the boom years after the turn of
the millennium, Indian firms invested heavily, on the assumption of
continued rapid growth. So when the financial crisis brought the
boom to an end, causing interest rates to soar and exchange rates
to collapse, many large companies found it difficult to repay their
debts. As companies began to default, banks were saddled with non-
performing loans, exceeding ten percent of their assets.
In response, successive governments launched initiative after ini-
tiative to address this “twin balance sheet” problem, initially asking
banks to postpone repayments, later encouraging banks and firms to
resolve their problems through an improved bankruptcy system.
These measures gradually alleviated the debt problem, but they still
left many firms too financially feeble to invest and banks reluctant
If you build it: highway construction in Ahmedabad, India, January 2021

to lend. And with lackluster investment and exports, the economy
was unable to recover its former dynamism.
As growth slowed, other indicators of social and economic prog-
ress deteriorated. Continuing a long-term decline, female participa-
tion in the labor force reached its lowest level since Indian
independence in 1948. The country’s already small manufacturing
sector shrank to just 13 percent of overall GDP. After decades of im-
provement, progress on child health goals, such as reducing stunting,
diarrhea, and acute respiratory illnesses, stalled.
And then came COVID-19, bringing with it extraordinary economic
and human devastation. As the pandemic spread in 2020, the econ-
omy withered, shrinking by more than seven percent, the worst per-
formance among major developing countries. Reversing a long-term
downward trend, poverty increased substantially. And although
large enterprises weathered the shock, small and medium-sized
businesses were ravaged, adding to difficulties they already faced
A M I T D AV E / R E U T E R S
following the government’s 2016 demonetization, when 86 percent

of the currency was declared invalid overnight, and the 2017 intro-
duction of a complex goods and services tax, or GST, a value-added
tax that has hit smaller companies especially hard. Perhaps the most
telling statistic, for an economy with an aspiring, upwardly mobile

middle class, came from the automobile industry: the number of

cars sold in 2020 was the same as in 2012.
In early 2021, the country’s population and health system were
hit by a catastrophic second wave of the pandemic. Estimated at
over 70 percent, India’s infection rate became one of the highest in the
world, leading to an estimated 2.5 million to 4.5 million excess deaths.
And many of those who survived found their lives blighted: heads of
families faced immense medical bills, while their children were kept
out of school for 18 months. In a country where learning outcomes are
already modest, a generation of children have fallen further behind.
Adding to a decade of stagnation, the ravages of COVID-19 have had
a severe effect on Indians’ economic outlook. In June 2021, the central
bank’s consumer confidence index fell to a record low, with 75 percent
of those surveyed saying they believed that economic conditions had
deteriorated, the worst assessment in the history of the survey.
Disaffection is also manifest in politics. The national government in
New Delhi has been bickering with the country’s state governments
for more than a year over the sharing of revenue from the GST. Several
states have imposed new residency requirements on job seekers over
the past two years, thus directly challenging the principle of a common
national labor market. There has also been a revival of the policy of
“reservation,” India’s version of affirmative action, in which some jobs
are reserved for people from traditionally disadvantaged social groups.
IMPROVING HARDWARE, FIXING SOFTWARE

Yet even as India’s structural transformation has slowed, the govern-
ment has been busy building the foundations for a renewed boom, by
strengthening the economy’s hardware and attempting to remedy
some of the problems of its software. A number of the hardware im-
provements are readily visible. Rail and road networks have been
expanded, with some major new highways and the Delhi–Mumbai
freight corridor nearing completion, alleviating India’s most obvious
constraint on growth. At the same time, important digital infrastruc-
ture has also been built. A national digital payments system, the
Unified Payments Interface, or UPI, has been established, allowing
digital companies to innovate and providing a newly efficient means
for the government to deliver cash subsidies to the poor.
Less visible, but perhaps even more important—and probably
the economic bedrock of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political
success—has been the government’s distinctive approach to redis-

tributive development. In many other countries, social spending
has traditionally focused on intangible public goods, such as health
and education. Since 2015, the Modi government has instead in-
vested in programs that provide tan-
gible basic goods and services, many
of which are aimed at women. This To compete with China, the
“New Welfarism” has included bank Indian government is
accounts, cooking gas, toilets, elec-
tricity, housing, and, more recently,
returning to protectionism.
water and just plain cash.
Although some of the claims have been overstated, the achieve-
ments of the New Welfarism are real. By 2019, 98 percent of all
households had access to electricity, up from just 75 percent a decade
ago, and 60 percent had access to clean cooking gas. According to
survey data, nearly three-quarters of all Indian women now have
bank accounts that they can use themselves. And the govern-
ment’s subsidies to the poor—previously known for extraordinary
rates of “leakage”—are now provided in direct cash payments, ensur-
ing that they reach their intended beneficiaries. They now amount to
$100 billion per year.
At the same time, the government has taken major steps to im-
prove the country’s policy software, especially its rules governing eco-
nomic investment. Consider three of these initiatives. In 2019, the
corporate tax rate was reduced to 25 percent from 35 percent, and new
manufacturing firms were offered the possibility of securing a tax rate
of just 15 percent. In August 2021, the government announced that it
would settle nearly $7 billion in tax disputes, notably with the British
firms Cairn Energy and Vodafone, arising from a poorly designed,
decade-old law that taxed foreign companies retrospectively. And in
October 2021, the government privatized India’s iconic national air-
line, Air India, selling it back to its original owner, the Tata Group
(the multinational conglomerate that also owns Tata Consultancy Ser-
vices), after 68 years of maladroit public ownership.
All these measures aim to grow the private sector—and to signal
the government’s commitment to this objective. Indeed, further am-
bitious reforms are in the pipeline, including plans to monetize other
public-sector assets, liberalize the farm economy, and clean up India’s
arcane, archaic, and arbitrary labor laws.

Such market-friendly reforms might lead one to conclude that In-

dia’s software, just like its hardware, is rapidly improving. But this
conclusion would be premature. Even as some aspects of the policy
framework have been streamlined, new, much larger obstacles to
private-sector growth have been put in place. To understand the prob-
lem, consider the centerpiece of the government’s current approach to
growth, its industrial policy, which is intended to spur strategic indus-
tries and promote “national champions.”
ASPIRING OUTWARD, TURNING INWARD

The Modi government’s new industrial policy is motivated by its well-
founded desire to lure international manufacturing away from an in-
creasingly uncompetitive China. Since the financial crisis, China has
given up about $150 billion of global market share in labor-intensive
goods. Yet until now, India has been able to attract no more than ten
percent of that lost share. In an effort to capture a far greater amount, the
government has launched a three-pronged strategy, called Atmanirbhar
Bharat (Self-Reliant India), that is based on targeted subsidies, a return
to protectionism, and nonparticipation in regional trade agreements.
The subsidies take the form of production-linked incentives (PLIs)
for manufacturers in designated sectors, including makers of cell
phones, electronics, and pharmaceuticals. Available to both domestic
and foreign-owned companies, the PLIs could cost the government
about one percent of GDP over five years.
As a further spur to domestic production, especially in favored sectors,
the government has reversed a three-decade-long consensus and begun
raising import tariffs. Since 2014, there have been some 3,200 tariff in-
creases, affecting about 70 percent of total imports. As a result, the aver-
age tariff rate has increased from 13 percent to nearly 18 percent, pushing
India’s trade barriers well above those of its East Asian counterparts.
Finally, the Modi government has halted the efforts of its predeces-
sors to join regional trade accords, concluding that it would be better
to stay out of the China-centric Asian production system. Under Mo-
di’s predecessor, Manmohan Singh, India signed 11 trade agreements;
since Modi came to power, in 2014, it has signed none. Notably, the
Modi government has declined to participate in the Regional Com-
prehensive Economic Partnership, a pact that has been joined by
nearly all Asian countries, including China, Japan, South Korea, and
the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations,
or ASEAN, as well as Australia and New Zealand. India’s trade negotia-

tions with the European Union have also made little progress.
Will Self-Reliant India work? It is doubtful. After all, India has
seen this movie before: the industrial strategy bears striking similari-
ties to the country’s post-independence economic policy, which was
abandoned in 1991, after India had fallen far behind its more market-
oriented Asian competitors. The new approach, the “subsidy raj,” car-
ries all the risks of the old “license raj,” namely that it is hard to
enforce, is driven by arbitrary decision-making, and creates a system
of entitlements from which it will be difficult to exit.
Nor does the strategy address the country’s most pressing needs.
India’s population remains young, with large numbers of low-skilled
workers looking for gainful employment in sectors that will provide
them with a reasonable and growing wage. To satisfy their aspirations,
India needs to follow the Asian recipe of boosting labor-intensive
exports. But the PLIs are aimed instead at technology and capital
intensive sectors, such as cell phones, which will provide relatively
few jobs for the bulk of the population.
More to the point, the protectionist tariff regime is unlikely to lure
manufacturers away from China. Higher tariffs will make it difficult
for firms to access the inexpensive, high-quality imported inputs on
which modern production depends. And India’s decision to stay out of
Asia’s most comprehensive trade agreement means that the country’s
exports will face a disadvantage in many of the world’s most dynamic
markets. In other words, at precisely the moment when India has its
long-awaited chance to compete with China for the first time as a
global manufacturing center, the government is making it harder to
integrate the Indian economy into global supply chains.
STACKING THE DECK

Perhaps the most distinctive aspect of Modi’s industrial policy is its
promotion of companies that have acquired a dominant position in
particular sectors of the economy. Japan and South Korea adopted a
similar “national champions” strategy decades ago, with their zai-
batsu and chaebol conglomerates. Consequently, the arguments for it
are well known. With government assistance, favored companies
can achieve huge economies of scale, create networks, and help pur-
sue national economic goals. They can also strengthen a country’s
position in the global market.

In India, the strategy has centered on two large business conglom-

erates, the Adani Group and Reliance Industries, led by two of the
richest men in Asia, Gautam Adani and Mukesh Ambani. One posi-
tive outcome of this strategy has been the rollout of a low-cost 4G cell
phone network by Jio, a Reliance subsidiary, which has given hundreds
of millions of Indians access to the
Internet for the first time. Another
Many Indians are deeply could be that these two giant compa-
ambivalent about the nies could help India meet its climate
goals, since they are both making
private sector—and large investments in renewables.
capitalism generally. But such beneficial developments
have to be weighed against the nega-
tive effects. For every favored firm
that has been encouraged to expand, many other firms have been dis-
couraged, by rules that make it difficult for them to compete with the
national champions. Even as Reliance Jio was expanding rapidly, the
telecommunications firms Bharti Airtel and Vodafone were being
crippled financially, rendering them unable to invest the huge sums
needed to shift India’s cell phone system rapidly to 5G. Similarly, the
plans of Amazon, the Tata Group, and Walmart to develop their on-
line retail platforms in India have been dashed by a proposed change
in regulations. Domestic garment exporters have been handicapped
by the high input cost of manmade fibers, favoring Reliance, which
produces these fibers. Overall, then, the strategy has undermined the
objective of improving the investment climate.
The cumulative impact of the national champions approach could
be more serious in India than elsewhere because Adani’s and Amba-
ni’s conglomerates have interests that extend throughout the econ-
omy, in defense production, ports and airports, energy, natural gas,
petroleum and petrochemicals, digital platforms, telecommunica-
tions, entertainment, media, retail, textiles, financial payments, and
education. By backing the “2As” at the expense of other companies,
both domestic and foreign, the government is encouraging an ex-
traordinary concentration of economic power.
In Japan and South Korea, the economic power of the zaibatsu and
the chaebol was kept in check because they generally operated in trad-
able sectors where they had to demonstrate efficiency by competing
globally. But the 2As operate mostly in domestic infrastructure sec-
tors that are shielded from international competition and heavily

shaped by government regulation. As a result, there is a serious risk
that India’s national champions strategy could create an oligopolistic
economy that will stifle innovation and growth.
STIGMATIZED CAPITALISM
Perhaps most worrisome, the national champions strategy threatens to
intensify India’s historic problem of “stigmatized capitalism.” Many In-
dians are deeply ambivalent about the private sector—and capitalism
generally. India’s private sector still bears the stigma of having been mid-
wifed under the license raj, an era in which corruption was pervasive. To
this day, some of India’s biggest entrepreneurs are believed to have built
their empires simply by mastering the minutiae of India’s tariff and tax
codes and then manipulating them brazenly to their advantage.
Some of the taint surrounding the private sector was cleansed by
the 1990s boom in information technology, which developed by
virtue of its distance from, rather than proximity to, the govern-
ment. But then came the infrastructure boom during the years be-
fore the financial crisis, in which public resources—land, coal, the
telecommunications spectrum—were captured by private firms un-
der the previous government’s “rent raj.” And the current govern-
ment has chosen to favor two groups through regulatory favors and
privileged access to infrastructure contracts. This is stigmatized
capitalism, the 2A variant.
Such favoritism seems unlikely to build public support for market-
based reforms. In fact, it already has turned many Indians against
them. Last year, the government decided to liberalize the highly regi-
mented farming sector, a measure that the entire policy establishment
had long been urging it to take. But unexpectedly, some of the in-
tended beneficiaries decided to oppose the measure, partly because
they feared that the new system would prove to be an oligopoly dom-
inated by the 2As, which would force down farm prices. The govern-
ment tried to convince the farmers otherwise but did not succeed. In
late November, after more than a year of protests, the government
announced it would withdraw the law.
DEFECTIVE SOFTWARE
Beyond the specific drawbacks of the industrial program and the national
champions strategy lies a defective approach to designing policy, that is,

how the sausage is made. The issue begins with faulty data and extends
right through the entire process, from planning to implementation.
Over the past few years, experts have raised serious doubts about
the quality and integrity of India’s official data. The most recent bud-
get arrested a growing trend of not recording expenditures on the
government’s balance sheet, but even now, the public lacks a clear
picture of the country’s overall fiscal position. During the height of
the pandemic, scientists repeatedly asked the government for the
health data it had collected, but little information was released.
Without greater transparency, it is difficult to have confidence that
the government is basing policy on good information.
Many policies have also run aground in India’s federal structure.
Nearly every major economic issue in India today—agriculture, health
policy, power, taxes, welfare schemes—requires joint action by the
national and state governments. Yet the national government has of-
ten made policy almost entirely on its own, with the result that many
initiatives are implemented poorly at the state level. In such cases,
policymaking can become trapped in a vicious cycle, in which a lack of
trust on the part of the states discourages them from implementing
national initiatives properly, thereby eroding the government’s trust
and discouraging it from consulting with the states on the next policy
measure. The recent agricultural reforms, which were imposed with-
out consultation with the affected states, illustrate the problem.
Even in cases in which reforms have been formulated adequately and
implemented properly, many policies have been plagued by a lack of
continuity. Often, the government has defeated its own strategic objec-
tives through subsequent measures. For example, actions to improve
farm income have been undermined by decisions to ban key exports
and limit the amount of food stocks that private firms can hold. The
intention to widen the tax base was set back when in 2019 the income
tax threshold was raised dramatically, releasing about three-quarters of
taxpayers from the tax net. The goal of increasing foreign investment is
currently being threatened by proposed rules for online retail that
would adversely affect the operations of Amazon and Walmart.
All governments must change their regulatory approach from time
to time. But India’s chronic inconsistency means that firms cannot
count on the stability of the economic framework: if they invest based
on current rules, they may run into difficulty in a year or two, when
the rules change. Some may decide it is better not to invest at all. The
lack of a clear, stable investment framework is the fundamental barrier

to convincing international manufacturers leaving China to relocate
their operations to India. And this also explains why foreign direct
investment has been flowing into India’s technology sector: because
this sector, unlike manufacturing, is lightly regulated and so is not
subject to the same degree of policy uncertainty.
A CHANCE TO REBOOT?
If the Indian economy can put the pandemic behind it, the coming
year should be a good one. India’s GDP has already regained its pre-
pandemic level, and the International Monetary Fund forecasts it will
grow by 8.5 percent in 2022, around three percentage points more
than China’s. The question is whether the government will be able to
use this growth as a springboard to more sustained prosperity, turning
India into a global manufacturing center.
A comparison with China is instructive. Compared with China’s,
India’s population and workforce are young. And whereas China’s
hardware revolution—its huge investments in infrastructure and
housing—has largely run its course, India’s is only just beginning.
China is also an increasingly authoritarian country and has begun
to undermine private-sector entrepreneurship and innovation
through sometimes punitive state intervention; India, by contrast,
is the world’s largest democracy, with the groundwork in place for
an expanding private sector.
For the Indian economy to achieve its potential, however, the gov-
ernment will need a sweeping new approach to policy—a reboot of
the country’s software. Its industrial policy must be reoriented toward
lower trade barriers and greater integration into global supply chains.
The national champions strategy should be abandoned in favor of an
approach that treats all firms equally. Above all, the policymaking
process itself needs to be improved, so that the government can estab-
lish and maintain a stable economic environment in which manufac-
turing and exports can flourish.
But there is little indication that any of this will occur. More likely,
as India continues to make steady improvements in its hardware—its
physical and digital infrastructure, its New Welfarism—it will be held
back by the defects in its software. And the software is likely to prove
decisive. Unless the government can fundamentally improve its eco-
nomic management and instill confidence in its policymaking process,

domestic entrepreneurs and foreign firms will be reluctant to make

the bold investments necessary to alter the country’s economic course.
There are further risks. The government’s growing recourse to ma-
joritarian and illiberal policies could affect social stability and peace, as
well as the integrity of institutions such as the judiciary, the media, and
regulatory agencies. By undermining democratic norms and practices,
such tendencies could have economic costs, too, eroding the trust of
citizens and investors in the government and creating new tensions
between the federal administration and the states. And India’s security
challenges on both its eastern and its western border have been dramati-
cally heightened by China’s expansionist activity in the Himalayas and
the takeover of Afghanistan by the Pakistani-supported Taliban.
If these dynamics come to dominate, the Indian economy could
experience another disappointing decade. Of course, there would still
be modest growth, with some sectors and some segments of the popu-
lation doing particularly well. But a broader boom that transforms
and improves the lives of millions of Indians and convinces the world
that India is back would be out of reach. In that case, the current gov-
ernment’s aspirations to global economic leadership may prove as elu-
sive as those of its predecessors.∂
The Coming
Carbon Tsunami
Developing Countries Need a New Growth
Model—Before It’s Too Late
I
n the struggle to combat climate change, the world is fighting the
last war. Since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, countries
have released one and a half trillion metric tons of carbon dioxide
into the atmosphere. The largest cumulative emissions have come
from the United States, European countries, China, and Russia, in
that order. But these countries are now prosperous enough to pay for
policies that can place them on the path to net-zero emissions by
midcentury. The top emitting countries of the future could come
largely from the developing world—countries such as Brazil, India,
Indonesia, and South Africa, which face the herculean task of bring-
ing millions out of poverty while simultaneously adapting to the
harsh realities of climate change.
If industrialized countries do not shoulder the responsibility to help
prevent this next wave of emissions, the global effort to avoid climate
disruption will fail. Efforts to ensure that today’s largest polluters rap-
idly curb their emissions are vitally important, but this progress risks
being erased if poorer countries find it impossible to pursue a low-
carbon development strategy. In order to simultaneously preserve the
environment and help lift hundreds of millions of people out of pov-
erty, rich countries must provide financing and policy support at a
scale that has so far been unavailable to poorer countries.
KELLY SIMS GALLAGHER is Academic Dean, Professor of Energy and Environmental

Policy, and Director of the Climate Policy Lab at Tuft University’s Fletcher School. She
served as Senior Policy Adviser in the White House’s Office of Science and Technology
Policy during the Obama administration.

There are roughly two dozen emerging economies across the globe
that are poised to expand their greenhouse gas emissions dramatically
in the near future if they do not receive this assistance. Their popula-
tion size, rapid economic growth rates, and reliance on fossil fuels
have placed them on a trajectory for a dramatic expansion of their
emissions. Together, they could cause the same massive wave of emis-
sions that China produced during the first two decades of this cen-
tury, when it released 195 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases into
the atmosphere. This would render impossible the efforts to reach
global “net zero” by midcentury, which scientists say is necessary to
avoid the worst effects of climate change.
This challenge represents not only a scientific and political dilemma
but an ethical and moral one, as well. Citizens of the world’s least de-
veloped countries have the same aspirations for economic prosperity as
citizens of China, Germany, or the United States do. Those who argue
that the only way to combat climate change is to reduce economic
growth miss the fundamental unfairness of global economic develop-
ment, which has left a third of the world’s population behind. Yet if
developing countries follow the “grow first and clean up later” pattern
established by the United States, western Europe, and East Asian
countries, the consequences for the climate will be catastrophic.
International focus, however, remains stubbornly fixated on the car-
bon emissions of China, the United States, and the EU. Institutions
largely designed by and for developed countries—such as the Major
Economies Forum on Energy and Climate and the G-7—continue to
be central for climate diplomacy, even if they have not yet proved ef-
fective in reducing global emissions. But most of those countries’ emis-
sions have already peaked, and they all boast the mature governance
institutions, vibrant private sectors, and ready access to capital that
make it entirely plausible for them to achieve net zero by 2050.
The developing world, however, has none of these advantages. Many
leaders from developing countries are no less concerned about climate
action than their counterparts in Beijing, Washington, and Brussels, and
the choices they make in the next five to ten years will determine the
extent to which a surge in emissions can be prevented. So far, however,
the efforts to provide their countries with low-carbon economic growth
opportunities have been woefully inadequate. Although the recent UN
Climate Change Conference, known as COP26 (the 26th Conference of
the Parties), resulted in incremental progress, negotiators also acknowl-
The Coming Carbon Tsunami
Old flames: coal fields in Jharkhand, India, February 2010
edged “with deep regret” that countries had failed to mobilize the financ-
ing for green development strategies that had been promised in previous
agreements—and even those pledges were insufficient to address the
scale of the problem. Meanwhile, the private sector continues to invest
in whatever energy projects it wishes—regardless of how dirty they are.
Although world leaders have announced their intention to limit the
global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the planet is currently
on track to experience warming far in excess of that level. The conse-
quences of this will be devastating: according to the latest report by the
UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, every additional
0.5 degrees Celsius of warming beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius will cause
“clearly discernible increases in the intensity and frequency of hot ex-
tremes . . . as well as agricultural and ecological droughts.” In the event
of two degrees Celsius warming, extreme heat waves that normally
would have occurred only once in 50 years will likely occur 14 times
during the same time frame. Three hundred and fifty million more
people risk being be exposed to deadly heat: residents of Karachi, Pak-
ALLISON JOYC E / RE DUX
istan, and Kolkata, India, for example, could experience, on an annual

basis, conditions like those of the heat wave that struck the Indian
subcontinent in 2015, which killed thousands. These changes will afflict
the developed and the developing world alike; there is no alternative
but to collaborate to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

PLAYING CHICKEN WITH THE CLIMATE

When American leaders were previously confronted with rapidly
growing emissions from the developing world, they largely responded
to the challenge by pointing fingers. Their inaction paved the way for
a massive spike in greenhouse gas emissions.
In 1997, the U.S. Senate unanimously approved the Byrd-Hagel Res-
olution, which declared that the United States would not sign on to an
international agreement mandating emission reductions if it did not de-
cree a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions for developing countries, as
well. The game of chicken started by Senator Robert Byrd, Democrat of
West Virginia, and Senator Chuck Hagel, Republican of Nebraska, con-
tinued for 17 long years, until 2014, when U.S. President Barack Obama
and Chinese President Xi Jinping jointly announced that they were com-
mitting their countries to emission-reduction targets of their own choos-
ing. This breakthrough paved the way for the adoption in 2015 of the
global Paris agreement on climate change, in which every country in the
world made a nationally determined commitment to limit emissions.
When the Byrd-Hagel Resolution was passed, China’s emissions were
just 3.1 billion metric tons annually. U.S. emissions stood at 5.5 billion
metric tons per year, and on a per capita basis, Americans emitted eight
times as much carbon dioxide as the Chinese. Today, China emits far
more greenhouse gas emissions than any other country, although its per
capita emissions are half those of the United States. If industrialized
countries such as the United States had supported China’s shift to a low-
carbon economic model during the almost two decades that separated
the Byrd-Hagel Resolution and the Paris agreement, the world would
almost certainly have avoided the rise in China’s emissions of nearly 200
billion metric tons since the beginning of the twenty-first century.
In 1997, China’s GDP was dwarfed by the United States’, standing at
less than $1 trillion in current U.S. dollars. Its accession to the World
Trade Organization in 2001, however, unleashed the potential of its
export-led development model: China’s GDP grew by leaps and bounds
for the next 20 years, reaching $14.7 trillion by 2020. This is the devel-
opment model that most developing countries look to for inspiration
today—but it is a climate disaster. As the growth of China’s economy
exploded, the country’s emissions likewise skyrocketed, surpassing
those of the United States in 2005 and tripling in only 14 years.
Hundreds of millions of people were pulled out of poverty during
China’s economic “miracle.” But urban air pollution choked China’s cit-
ies, and pollution fouled its water supplies. A 2007 joint study con-
ducted by the Chinese government and the World Bank found that the
water in half of China’s main rivers was unsafe for human consumption.
The same study estimated that the economic burden associated with air
pollution alone was equivalent to cutting 1.16 percent off of China’s GDP.
No single country is likely to produce the same volume of emissions
as China did during the first two decades of this century. China’s emis-
sion growth was a function of its massive population size, high eco-
nomic growth rate, and heavy reliance on coal for energy. There are 15
major emerging-market or developing countries that possess two out
of three of these drivers (Bangladesh, China, Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia,
India, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Africa, Tanzania,
Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, and Vietnam); eight other countries are
deeply reliant on petroleum consumption, the next most carbon
intensive fuel (Algeria, Brazil, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Nigeria, Rus-
sia, and Saudi Arabia). This makes a total of about two dozen countries
deserving priority attention and support.
Several of these countries together, if they continue on their current
economic growth paths, could easily create a wave of emissions similar
to the one China caused from 2000 to 2020. For instance, if just four
of them—Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia—were to meet
their pre-pandemic emission growth rates (as reported by the Climate
Action Tracker) through 2050, their cumulative net emissions between
now and then would be 197 billion metric tons. This figure would be
equivalent to China’s emission output between 2000 and 2020.
This calculation does not take into account any planned emission-
reduction policies or pledges. Thankfully, many developing coun-
tries have announced their intentions to improve their climate
records: South Africa has pledged to reach net-zero emissions by
2050, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia have committed to reaching net
zero by 2060, and India has promised to achieve net zero by 2070.
But none of these countries has produced a detailed plan for how to
achieve its goal. Meanwhile, Iran has not yet announced a timeline
for reaching net zero, and countries heavily reliant on coal, such as
India and Vietnam, will have a particularly difficult time making the
transition to a green economy. Despite these challenges, Vietnam
committed at COP26 to phase out domestic coal use by the 2040s.
Wealthy economies will need to provide some form of support for
all these countries to bring an end to business as usual. Many countries

in the developing world have good intentions to avoid climate change

but need the financing and technical support to accomplish this policy
shift. They will understandably prioritize poverty alleviation and eco-
nomic growth—especially now, as the world comes out of a global re-
cession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
These developing countries are also more vulnerable to extreme
weather events caused by climate change. If the world doesn’t begin
rapidly reducing emissions, their growth will be hobbled by increas-
ingly frequent hurricanes, mudslides, floods, and droughts. One analy-
sis, sponsored by a global network of central banks, found that most
countries could experience a 10–25 percent loss of GDP if no additional
steps are taken to mitigate climate change. The greatest GDP losses are
projected to occur in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, but China
and the United States could still suffer substantial losses of up to ten
percent of GDP. According to a UN report published earlier this year, it
is estimated that the cost of adapting to climate change in developing
countries will rise from $70 billion today to up to $500 billion by 2050.
The transformation of some of these countries will be especially dif-
ficult if they rely heavily on fossil fuel production, which is the case for
Iran, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. Even if they curb emissions in their
domestic economies, they will still be exporting coal, oil, and gas to sup-
port their economic growth. If they continue to abet emission growth
in other countries, their net-zero pledges will be rendered hollow.
FEELING THE HEAT

Despite the implementation of four major climate agreements and
increasingly dire warnings from scientists, greenhouse gas emissions
from all sources increased by 58 percent between 1990 and 2020. The
concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increased by 18
percent during the same period (since some emissions are absorbed
by oceans and forests).
Even the Paris agreement, a good outcome by the standards of in-
ternational climate negotiations, is far from adequate. If all countries
fulfill their promises, emissions will be 15 billion metric tons lower and
global average temperatures will be one degree Celsius lower in 2050
than otherwise would have been the case. Yet by most estimates, total
warming will still be an intolerable 2.7 degrees Celsius.
There are three major reasons why global efforts have come up short.
First, in the Paris agreement, as with most global environmental agree-
ments, countries face few consequences for missing their targets. Cli-
mate negotiators settled on an approach that allows each country to
determine its own path to reducing carbon emissions in the hope that this
would secure universal participation—and sure enough, 193 countries
submitted nationally determined targets under the Paris agreement. But
there is no enforcement mechanism to make sure countries honor their
commitments and no way to make laggards step up their efforts. Many
political leaders have also set ambi-
tious targets for the distant future,
long after they will have left office— Efforts to provide
meaning that they will not be the ones developing countries with
forced to make the hard decisions nec-
essary to achieve their stated goals. low-carbon economic
Second, emerging economies (as growth opportunities have
well as many industrialized econo- been woefully inadequate.
mies) have failed to develop a model
of economic growth that does not rely
on fossil fuels and energy-intensive industrialization. Japan, South Ko-
rea, and China adopted what became known as the East Asian devel-
opment model—an approach that is manufacturing-intensive and
export-led, with significant state intervention—and are all among the
top ten emitters today. China is trying to reduce the carbon intensity
of its economy by switching to renewables and nuclear energy, but its
abandonment of coal has been too slow.
Third, public and private capital flows to developing economies
do not provide sufficient financing to green energy projects. The In-
ternational Energy Agency has estimated that $4 trillion in annual
investments in clean energy is required to decarbonize the global
energy system. In Paris, negotiators committed to mobilizing only
$100 billion per year for developing countries by 2020—and even
that pledge has not been met.
Although climate finance is notoriously difficult to track, the world
appears to be mobilizing slightly more than $600 billion annually, just 15
percent of what is needed. National development institutions and corpo-
rations provide the bulk of the money (approximately $275 billion), mul-
tilateral and commercial banks come in second (with more than $190
billion), and individual investors and state-owned enterprises each pro-
vide roughly $55 billion. But three-quarters of these funds are spent do-
mestically in developed countries, leaving little for the developing world.

Sub-Saharan Africa benefits from only roughly $20 billion in climate fi-
nance per year, for example, compared with East Asia’s $292 billion.
Most multilateral development institutions have failed to prioritize
low-carbon energy projects. A study of investments from the World
Bank, the International Finance Corporation, and the Asian Develop-
ment Bank in 2015 and 2016 found that only about 20 percent of the fi-
nancing from these three institutions was aligned with the goal of staying
below warming of two degrees Celsius.
The World Bank has reported that
The world’s two largest it provided $9.4 billion in financing
economies have failed to for energy efficiency and renewable
energy between 2015 and 2020. It
offer climate leadership. does not report on its fossil fuel in-
vestments, making it difficult to as-
sess its overall portfolio—although one German nongovernmental
organization, Urgewald, conducted research that suggests the World
Bank has invested $10.5 billion in new fossil fuel projects since the
signing of the Paris agreement. By contrast, two of China’s so-called
policy banks (the China Development Bank and the Export-Import
Bank of China), which are government run, financed $16.3 billion in
hydropower projects, $7.8 billion in nuclear power, and $2.4 billion in
renewables between 2016 and 2020.
Although most multilateral development banks halted financing
for coal a decade ago, they have done too little to support alternatives
to this carbon-intensive fuel. There has been some modest progress:
the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development
Bank have both actively financed renewable energy projects. The
World Bank’s energy strategy, updated in 2020, reiterates that the
bank no longer finances coal projects, that it halted financing for up-
stream oil and gas in 2019, and that it has “ramped up” efforts to help
developing countries transition to clean energy.
These are welcome initiatives, but the multilateral banks’ invest-
ments in clean energy are still insufficient. The World Bank’s Climate
Investment Funds has supported 26 gigawatts of clean power since
2008, whereas China alone has financed 32 gigawatts of clean energy
projects in the last five years. The main financing vehicle under the
Paris agreement is the Green Climate Fund, a small organization that
as of October 2021 had financed just 190 projects around the world,
with a cumulative commitment of $10 billion. Although the fund
should continue to be part of the solution, project-by-project ap-

proaches are not going to provide the scale of support that is needed.
The failure of multilateral development banks to make financing for
clean energy widely available means that they are ceding the space to
public and private investors who are more interested in profit or geo-
politics than climate change. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has pro-
vided crucial development support to many poorer countries, but more
than 55 percent of the BRI’s energy finance has gone to fossil fuels, and of
that, 70 percent was investment in coal. Overall, China financed 133
gigawatts of new power plants between 2000 and 2021, of which 56 giga-
watts were from coal, 35 gigawatts were from hydropower, nine gigawatts
were from wind, four were from solar power, and one was from nuclear
power. Xi recently committed to stop building overseas coal plants and
to “step up” support for low-carbon and clean energy projects, but
whether China will follow through on these promises remains to be seen.
But as tempting as it is to criticize China for funding overseas coal
projects through its state-owned policy banks, it is important to note
that 87 percent of the financing for overseas coal plants between
2013 and 2018 came from non-Chinese public and private financiers,
including U.S. commercial investment banks, Japanese public and
private banks, and more.
During the Trump administration, the United States offered almost
no support for green development strategies. The U.S. Export-Import
Bank temporarily halted lending in 2015 because it lacked a quorum on
its five-member board and the Republicans refused to confirm new ap-
pointees. It was reauthorized in 2019 with a backlog of $39 million
worth of projects in its financing pipeline. The United States didn’t
have a development bank until 2019, when the U.S. International De-
velopment Finance Corporation was born—and even then, the Trump
administration made little use of it. The DFC has committed to reach
net zero in its investment portfolio by 2040 and announced in Septem-
ber that climate-focused investments would account for one-third of
its portfolio by fiscal year 2023.
The United States also has the U.S. Agency for International De-
velopment, or USAID, but its resources are dwarfed by those of the
world’s development banks. USAID’s budget for the 2021 fiscal year
committed just $600 million to climate efforts. The Power Africa ini-
tiative of USAID during the Obama administration, which aimed to
expand access to clean energy in Africa, was a great example of what is

needed—but it withered on the vine during the Trump years. As of

March 2021, Power Africa had financed only 12 gigawatts of renewable
energy, 4.8 gigawatts of which were already online. The resources be-
ing devoted to clean energy programs are simply too small to meet
rising demand in the developing world.
ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT
Many developing countries are not only willing to develop more sus-
tainably but also eager to do so. The challenge is securing the necessary
financing and technical assistance to make the transition to clean en-
ergy without jeopardizing their economic growth.
Take Ethiopia, which has committed to a nonfossil fuel future and has
a long list of geothermal, hydro, solar, and wind energy projects in its
electricity-sector master plan. But many of these projects have not yet
been financed, even as Ethiopia ranks as one of the top three countries
in the world for the number of people without access to electricity. Due
to the country’s lack of creditworthiness, China has been the main inter-
ested lender for Ethiopia’s renewable projects: Beijing’s Export-Import
Bank has provided $4.4 billion in financing for nine hydro and wind
power projects and five transmission and distribution projects since
2000. Meanwhile, the World Bank has provided $2.4 billion in loans to
Ethiopia during this period for energy and climate-related projects.
Other countries are open to clean energy but are preoccupied with
near-term solutions to their energy shortages. Pakistan has pursued
an “all of the above” energy strategy, including expanding coal,
hydro, natural gas, nuclear, solar, and wind power. China’s policy
banks have financed a mix of fossil fuel and nonfossil fuel projects in
the country, investing a whopping $20.6 billion in 19 energy projects
since 2000, including seven coal, five hydro, and three nuclear proj-
ects. During the same time period, the World Bank appears to have
invested $4.4 billion, primarily in clean energy and transmission and
distribution projects. For Pakistan, climate mitigation no doubt feels
like a luxury it cannot always afford as it works to increase its eco-
nomic growth and alleviate poverty.
While the barriers to expanding clean energy in Ethiopia and Paki-
stan may be primarily financial, many other developing countries sim-
ply don’t know how to pursue greener development. Some aren’t even
sure they want to do so, worrying that it will undercut their foremost
priority: development. Most developing-world policymakers have
minimal familiarity with renewables and a great deal of familiarity

with coal. According to the International Energy Agency, in 2020,
countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development relied on coal, peat, and oil shale for 36 percent of their
total energy supply, while renewables supplied only 16 percent.
In 2016, Bangladesh, opting for what it considered the most cost-
effective path for power development, issued a power-sector master
plan that embraced a shift from natural gas to coal. This is ironic, given
that Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate
change. (More recently, its government seems to have started to have
second thoughts, introducing a new development plan that at least
acknowledges that Bangladesh’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels “is a mat-
ter of concern.”) The national energy strategies of Indonesia, South
Africa, and Vietnam also champion coal, largely because these coun-
tries have abundant domestic supplies of the fuel.
An example of what is needed was announced at COP26, when
France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the
European Union committed to provide $8.5 billion to help South Af-
rica achieve a just transition away from coal and implement policies to
decarbonize its economy. Policies like this can speed the shift to cleaner
sources of energy in emerging markets, ensuring that their economic
development does not hamper efforts to mitigate climate change.
FOLLOW THE MONEY

The process of global climate negotiations is necessary but not suffi-
cient to solve the climate crisis. This work needs to be coupled with
efforts to ensure that developing countries can access sufficient re-
sources to pursue low-carbon development strategies. The public and
private sectors must mobilize financing for the roughly two dozen
countries where economic growth could cause large increases in emis-
sions in the near future. Some of these countries, such as Saudi Arabia,
should be able to finance their transitions without international assis-
tance (although they may still benefit from policy advice). Others,
such as Ethiopia, India, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Vietnam, will need
much more comprehensive support in terms of financing, capacity
building, and technical assistance.
At the moment, national climate policies are essentially divorced
from global financial flows. Changing that starts with governments,
which must hold themselves and one another to account for regulating

private financial institutions and greening their own public invest-

ments. Private firms control the overwhelming majority of interna-
tional financial flows but have failed to regulate themselves despite the
many voluntary agreements that already exist, such as the Green Bond
Principles, which provide guidelines for financing environmentally
sound and sustainable projects.
Therefore, governments must step in. Financial regulators could re-
quire the disclosure of climate-related investments, prohibit companies
from making new investments in coal or other high-carbon industries
(as recently proposed in a bill by U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley, Democrat
of Oregon), and promote cooperation among central banks to reduce
climate-related risks in the financial system. The U.S. Federal Reserve
recently joined the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for
Greening the Financial System, a group of 80 central banks and super-
visory authorities that is sharing best practices for strengthening the
financial system’s resilience to climate-related risks.
The public sector is in equally dire need of reform. The govern-
ments of major emerging economies, such as Brazil, China, India,
Mexico, and Russia, must reform their state-owned enterprises to be
carbon neutral and start moving away from taxes on fuel as a major
source of revenue. One option is to shift from fuel and income taxes to
carbon taxes, which could promote the use of low-carbon energy
sources while allowing governments to maintain their tax bases. Indus-
trialized nations that have already implemented a carbon tax should
provide technical assistance to developing countries. Norway, for ex-
ample, has deep experience with these policies: it has proposed tripling
its national tax on carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, while also com-
mitting to offset these increases with reductions in other taxes to avoid
decreased competitiveness.
The other big task is to fundamentally rethink how global develop-
ment institutions function. The inventor Charles Kettering, who led
General Motors’ research division in the first half of the twentieth
century, once observed that managers should “never put a new technol-
ogy in an old division,” because it will get eaten by its siblings. That is
why the world needs a new global green development bank. Such a
bank should be modeled on the World Bank or the Asian Infrastruc-
ture Investment Bank but be devoted solely to financing low-carbon,
resilient economic development trajectories. It could offer grants,
loans, loan guarantees, and other types of investments to developing
countries without the cumbersome project-by-project approach cur-

rently used by the Green Climate Fund. It should be staffed by experts
who can provide technical assistance to developing countries about
how to establish the environment necessary to spur private-sector in-
vestment in low-carbon industries. Ideally, it would induce a “race to
the top” as each country tried to outperform the others in the delivery
of sustainable prosperity solutions.
Finally, a low-carbon development model must concentrate on
green industrialization—that is, job creation and growth in industries
that do not result in pollution. Moving forward, this model could tap
new digital technologies to produce economic activity that is less
carbon-intensive. Expanding service industries, creating strategies
for sustainable agriculture, and investing in new high-tech energy,
transportation, and building industries are also key elements of a
low-carbon development model.
There have been important success stories in the developing world
that show the potential of this kind of development model. In India, a
state-owned company aggregated commitments from cities and states
to buy 85,000 electric three-wheelers, which are now available for pur-
chase at subsidized rates. In Kerala, the state government has ordered
that government offices purchase electric vehicles. These are the sort
of procurement and financing arrangements that the developing world
needs going forward. But electric vehicles still accounted for less than
two percent of India’s automobile sales last year, underscoring the need
to quickly scale up efforts to decarbonize economies around the world.
LEADING THE WAY

It is entirely possible to stop the next wave of emissions, provided both
developed and developing countries show leadership in confronting
the challenge. Many emerging economies are willing to adopt policies
to mitigate climate change: of the roughly two dozen countries identi-
fied as having the potential for high emission growth, half have pro-
posed net-zero targets for midcentury. Indonesia is about to institute a
modest carbon tax on coal plants, and Mexico and South Africa already
have carbon taxes in place. China recently finalized a national emission
trading system for power plants, and Kazakhstan has established its
own emission-trading regime. Ethiopia has released an economic strat-
egy that prioritizes green development, featuring plans to expand its
electricity supply from renewables and to reforest the country.

But these countries also need financing and policy support, and un-
fortunately, the world’s two largest economies have failed to offer cli-
mate leadership. The United States has not modeled a good policy
approach to low-carbon economic growth, as meaningful climate legis-
lation remains stalled in Congress. The country arguably leads the
world in clean energy research and development, but it falls terribly
short in transferring those inventions to the marketplace because of its
historical inability to create stable market incentives for low-carbon
industries. The United States should be leading the push for reform of
the multilateral development banks and the establishment of a global
green bank. It must also begin regulating its private banks so that they
cease investing in high-carbon industries and instead provide finan
cing for low-carbon industries and fuels.
China, meanwhile, has concentrated on industrial policy for low-
carbon industries. Its firms have already conquered global solar markets
and are on the way to expanding their control of the market for electric
vehicles and batteries. Likewise, Beijing created stable markets for re-
newable energy deployment, resulting in China having the largest re-
newable energy capacity in the world. But China is far from a role
model: it has not yet managed to stop building coal plants or to reform
its fossil-fuel-based state-owned enterprises. Furthermore, it has not yet
articulated a plan for increasing financing of clean industries overseas,
and its investments through the BRI and other funding instruments re-
main shrouded in secrecy. Both the United States and China need to
fully disclose their public and private investments in overseas markets
so that they can be held to account for their impact on the climate.
This abdication of leadership leaves the ball in the court of major
developing countries, such as India, Indonesia, and South Africa, to
forge a new approach. Developing countries have proved their capacity
for innovation but need resources and policy assistance from their de-
veloped counterparts to transition to a low-carbon development model.
This support from rich economies—which became rich, needless to
say, by pumping the lion’s share of carbon into the atmosphere—is the
only way for the world to mitigate the effects of climate change.∂
REVIEWS & RESPONSES
The Cold War led to

creative and intellectual
breakthroughs with
staying power beyond
their immediate moment.
– Beverly Gage
AR NO L D N EW MA N / G E T T Y I MAG ES
The Art of War Recent Books 187

Beverly Gage 166
A New Cuba?
Jon Lee Anderson 173
From the Jaws of Retreat

Erez Manela 180
before nbc concluded that the future of
The Art of War television lay elsewhere.
This is roughly the time period
covered in Louis Menand’s new book,
Can Culture Drive The Free World. Menand is less inter-
Geopolitics? ested in classical impresarios such as
Toscanini than in the cultural innova-
Beverly Gage tors of the age: the philosophers and
composers and painters and wise-man
diplomats whose ideas put them at the
cutting edge of Western culture. In
The Free World: Art and Thought in the Menand’s telling, for a brief period
Cold War following World War II, U.S. liberalism
BY LOUIS MENAND. Farrar, Straus, proved its power and luster by creating
and Giroux, 2021, 880 pp. a society open enough to foster vibrant
exchange in the realm of high culture,
A
round 1949, fresh out of college art, and ideas—and rich enough to
at Northwestern University, my sustain the men and women engaged in
mother moved to New York to such work. That moment came crashing
take a job at nbc. She arrived at the to an end in the 1960s, as challenges at
dawn of U.S. television. Nbc had home and abroad tarnished the United
entered the business just about a decade States’ self-conception as the epicenter
earlier. Rather than being assigned to a of “the free world.” While it lasted, it
sitcom or a variety show, she ended up produced something like a golden age of
at the nbc Opera Theatre, one of the intellectual and artistic experimenta-
splashiest, most expensive ventures in tion, with a bona fide popular audience.
the new lineup. The corporation had Although Menand’s subtitle links
long sponsored its own radio orchestra this period of cultural innovation to the
under the leadership of the famed Cold War, the relationship he imagines
conductor Arturo Toscanini, who had between artistic expression and geopoli-
fled Mussolini’s Italy in the 1930s for tics is often tenuous. Major philoso-
refuge in the United States. When phers and academic thinkers wrestled
television came along, executives with the fate of the world, but not
assumed that one of its functions would necessarily in ways that explicitly
be to make Toscanini-style high culture privileged the United States or the
available to the American masses. That Soviet Union. Composers and painters
dream—that a major television orches- and choreographers explored the
tra and opera company would be both existential dread of a post-nuclear world
popular and profitable—lasted an but did not tend to weigh in on any
astonishing 15 years, from 1949 to 1964, particular policy direction. The diplo-
mat George Kennan and other Cold
BEVERLY GAGE is Professor of U.S. History War realists put in star turns at the
and American Studies at Yale University. She is
writing a biography of former FBI Director helm of the new American leviathan,
J. Edgar Hoover. but the connections between their
The Art of War
thought and, say, John Cage’s classical knowledge competition, restructured

compositions can be hard to trace. “The intellectual life, for both good and ill.
free world,” Menand suggests, was a On the left, the implosion of the Popu-
feeling and impulse and form of expres- lar Front, combined with the repressive
sion more than it was any sort of atmosphere of McCarthyism, led to a
coherent political body. sense of dislocation and disillusionment
Despite its impressionistic style, for an entire generation. The swirl of
Menand’s book speaks powerfully to geopolitics brought thousands of path-
one of the most important themes in breaking European artists and intellec-
twentieth-century U.S. politics: the ways tuals into the United States even as it
in which the Cold War—and the specter made cultural exchange with the Soviet
of communism—reshaped American Union and Eastern Europe increasingly
society from top to bottom. As historians fraught. Perhaps most of all, the early
such as Mary Dudziak and Glenda Cold War lent a sense of vibrancy and
Gilmore have shown, the struggle for high stakes to nearly everything hap-
postwar civil rights was tied to debates pening in American arts and ideas, high
over communism and Third World and low, as the nation set out to declare
revolution. The U.S. welfare state, too, and then win a global culture war.
was developed with socialist models as
inescapable points of reference. It has FROM THE ASHES
long been obvious that anticommunist Menand’s style in The Free World will be
sentiment constrained liberal policy familiar to fans of The Metaphysical Club,
ambitions in the 1940s and 1950s, when his Pulitzer Prize–winning 2001 best-
universal health care was derided as seller. That book tracks the intellectual
“socialized medicine” and champions of lives of four erudite men: Oliver Wen-
labor rights were inevitably accused of dell Holmes, Jr., William James, Charles
harboring communist sympathies. In less Sanders Peirce, and John Dewey, the
obvious ways, however, the Cold War first three of whom met in an intellec-
drove the United States in more progres- tual club of their own devising. Together,
sive policy directions: as a struggle according to Menand, they invented
against a society that claimed to stand pragmatism, transformed American
for cradle-to-grave economic security, liberalism, and contended with some of
the Cold War pushed the United States the greatest questions of their day.
to present itself as a model nation, The Free World, too, is filled with
supposedly able to provide its citizens chance encounters, creative relation-
with the best quality of life in the world. ships, and discussions over dinner. This
Menand’s cultural story often im- time, however, Menand has scaled up.
plies, rather than identifies, explicit Rather than four characters, he offers
connections between those geopolitical dozens, each chapter its own deep dive
debates and the realm of high culture. into a fleeting but consequential group
But in art and thought, too, the Cold conversation. Gathered (willingly or
War was inescapable. In the academic unwillingly) in the United States, some
sphere, the influx of federal money into of the West’s most important intellectu-
universities, spurred by the Cold War als, composers, writers, artists, and

Beverly Gage
wise-man diplomats made beauty and to the United States and resigned (to
meaning out of a world in which the varying degrees) to make the best of it
Holocaust, nuclear power, and Cold War once there. The German-born political
ideology suddenly loomed large. In the theorist Hannah Arendt arrived in New
process, they produced their own host of York in 1941, barely speaking a word of
“isms”: structuralism and poststructural- English. The anthropologist Claude
ism, anticommunism and anti-anti Lévi-Strauss arrived that same year,
communism, nihilism and existentialism, seizing the offer of a post at the New
realism in international affairs and School as a lifeline out of Nazi-occupied
abstract expressionism in high art. France. Over the course of the late
Amazingly, they found a popular 1930s and early 1940s, dozens of other
audience for their musings. “Ideas major thinkers, artists, and writers made
mattered. Painting mattered. Movies similar trips, many of them Jews fleeing
mattered. Poetry mattered,” Menand for their lives. By one estimate, more
writes of the 1950s, in implicit contrast than 700 European fine artists alone—
to today’s era of 280-character thoughts painters, sculptors, photographers—
and Instagram poses. Kennan’s learned moved to the United States between
memos drove foreign policy. Jackson 1933 and 1944. On their arrival, they
Pollock’s drip paintings became national formed vibrant communities to carry on
icons. Existentialism provided a vocabu- their work. And whether they liked it or
lary for middle-class disaffection. From not, most of them became American in
the philosopher Jean-Paul Sartre, the one way or another.
world adopted a language of, as Menand U.S.-born citizens were part of the
puts it, “anxiety, authenticity, bad faith”; cultural mix, too, of course. One thrill
from Sartre’s friend and rival the writer of the age, according to Menand, was
Albert Camus, that of “the absurd, the the chance for Americans to mingle and
outsider, the rebel.” brainstorm with the best that Europe
Born in 1952, the son of a historian had to offer. Before the war, such
and a political scientist, Menand recalls exchanges had happened mostly in
hearing all these names over dinner in Paris, the undisputed center of Western
his childhood home outside Boston. His culture. After the war, they took place
sense of both admiration for and dis- in cities such as Chicago, Los Angeles,
tance from his subjects permeates the and, above all, New York. Some of what
book. Perhaps he dreamed as a child that drove the cultural renaissance of the
he might one day enter this glittering 1940s and 1950s was a deep American
world of high-culture celebrity. It may anxiety about whether or not the United
have been a disappointment to come of States’ intellectual and artistic achieve-
age—indeed, to become a Harvard ments were any good—whether they
professor and New Yorker writer—only were, in short, worthy of the country’s
to discover that the happenings of such a new status as a global superpower and
world no longer mattered as much. the arch-defender of liberal democracy.
The most vibrant protagonists in “In 1945, there was widespread skepti-
Menand’s story are the European cism, even among Americans, about the
refugees forced by circumstance to flee value and sophistication of American
The Art of War
art and ideas,” Menand writes. Part of Simone de Beauvoir to Diana and
the mission of the early Cold War was Lionel Trilling to Allen Ginsberg and
to prove that the country’s artists, Neal Cassady. Around them swirl a
writers, and intellectuals were indeed dazzling array of creators and thinkers,
ready for the global leadership that had each borrowing ideas from the others.
been thrust upon them. “Rauschenberg was fearless and pro-
The Cold War’s soft-power struggles lific,” Menand writes of the artist
generated no end of tiresome propa- Robert Rauschenberg, “but his art and
ganda and covert manipulation. Such his influence were enhanced by his
crass forms of cultural imperialism are association with three other innovative
not Menand’s concern. He takes on the figures who also became internationally
more sophisticated aspects of Cold War renowned: John Cage, [the dancer and
culture, in which Americans sought to choreographer] Merce Cunningham,
advertise their country’s artistic vitality and [the fellow artist] Jasper Johns.”
and openness to new ideas by way of Nearly every chapter contains a similar
heightening the contrast with its totali- formulation, with one passionate
tarian rivals. “Responsible liberals feel thinker happening on another, then
better adjusted for having an apprecia- plunging into a relationship of deep (if
tion of art and ideas that are contemptu- sometimes brief) intensity.
ous of the values of responsible liberals,” Some of the most fascinating chap-
Menand writes. What made the postwar ters explore the struggles of leftists
United States great, Menand suggests, and ex-leftists to come to terms with
was a willingness—at least within the the demise of the Popular Front and the
liberal establishment—to contemplate emergence of the Soviet Union as the
its own flaws and failings. That tendency chief geopolitical and ideological rival
toward self-critique may ultimately have of the United States. The anguish
been the tragic flaw of Menand’s mid- involved in that experience can be hard
century creatives. But while the moment to capture today, with the Soviet col-
lasted, the combination of imperial lapse now a full generation in the past.
ambition, liberal individualism, trans- But many of Menand’s characters came
atlantic exchange, and social affluence of age in the 1930s, when the commu-
produced groundbreaking books, paint- nists seemed to be at the cutting edge of
ings, and musical compositions. antifascist, anticapitalist, and antiracist
It also produced some excellent politics. The realization that Joseph
parties. In his love for the chance Stalin was killing hundreds of thou-
meeting, Menand devotes a good deal sands of his own citizens, and holding
of attention to the social aspects of the rest in thrall to a totalitarian dicta-
cultural production: the receptions and torship, caused a crisis of conscience on
performances and exhibits where one the left that took some two decades to
inquiring soul connected with another, unfold. Out of that crisis came some of
yielding inspiration and alchemy (and, the seminal works of midcentury
in Menand’s telling, quite a lot of sex). thought and literature, including
The great couples of the highbrow set George Orwell’s 1984 (published in
animate the book, from Sartre and 1949), the work of a self-proclaimed

Beverly Gage
socialist whose own “abuse of socialists,” HEARTS AND MINDS

according to Menand, “could be as Few readers, especially those of an
vicious as any Tory’s.” intellectual or artistic bent, will be able
Menand is at his best when dissect- to resist Menand’s portrait of a time
ing the historical circumstances and when an especially compelling late-
influences that produced a book like night conversation or a well-wrought
1984 and gave it popular currency. article in an obscure left-liberal journal
Often presented to today’s students as seemed to carry the fate of the world.
an abstract critique of totalitarianism, Menand is skillful at conveying the
1984 was also a highly specific commen- thrill of creative discovery, even when it
tary on the dilemmas of postwar life, was accompanied by personal difficulty
drawing on the images and ideas that and loss. He has somewhat less to say
Orwell found around him. He borrowed about the policy choices and economic
heavily from the philosopher James supports that made such creativity
Burnham, the eccentric American possible. He devotes several pages to
communist turned conservative whose the cia’s secret activities and sponsor-
book The Managerial Revolution, pub- ships, but these are the exceptions in a
lished in 1941, envisioned a world of book focused on biographical and
competing superpowers similar to cultural analysis.
Orwell’s Oceania, Eurasia, and Eastasia. Similarly underdeveloped is any
By putting Orwell and other figures discussion of countercurrents from the
into historical context, Menand shows right, which underwent its own midcen-
how great art can emerge from situa- tury cultural and intellectual renaissance.
tions of confusion, muck, and terror. William F. Buckley founded the National
The major difficulty of Menand’s Review in 1955 on the premise that
book is that he does this again and “ideas have consequences” (itself an idea
again, with each chapter introducing its articulated by the conservative writer
own invigorating new cast of characters. Richard Weaver in 1948 in a book of that
The result can be enlivening. It can also title). Midcentury conservatives, no less
be exhausting. Menand writes in the than their liberal counterparts, professed
introduction that The Free World is “a to recognize the value of intellectual
series of vertical cross-sections rather provocation and A-list parties. They, too,
than a survey.” The book nonetheless had their European exiles, including the
retains some of the qualities of a economists Friedrich Hayek and Ludwig
college survey course, which indeed it von Mises. They even had their own
was—Harvard’s United States in the Metaphysical Club: the Mont Pelerin
World 23: Art and Thought in the Cold Society, founded atop a Swiss
War. That format provides a handy mountain in 1947 in order to bring the
guide to the best method for reading West’s finest free-market thinkers
The Free World: one or two chapters per together in a collective rebuke to the
week, engaged with seriously and emerging liberal order.
consistently, with the grand conclusions Some of that conservative organizing
about how it all fits together left open took aim at the most important institu-
for small-group discussion. tion of Cold War intellectual life: the
The Art of War
American university. Buckley’s first difficulty still. Menand identifies indi-

book, God and Man at Yale, published in viduals in both categories who managed
1951, identified his alma mater as a site to transcend the constraints of the age,
of outrageously liberal thought, begin- including the feminist activist and author
ning with its supposedly socialist Eco- Betty Friedan and the writer James
nomics Department and extending to its Baldwin. But they occupy a slightly
culture of religious tolerance. Menand’s different place in the narrative than do
book underscores the ways in which figures such as Kennan and Trilling, who
Buckley’s critique was at least partly held real institutional as well as cultural
true, if not for Yale (which was, in a power. A few, such as Arendt, landed
relative sense, still a bastion of conserva- decent university sinecures. Others were
tism), then for the American university relegated to hand-to-mouth essay
system writ large. High on the postwar writing, activism, and sometimes, as in
agenda was the dream of making Ameri- Baldwin’s case, self-imposed exile. By the
can universities the finest in the world, time opportunities opened up for them
beginning with the GI Bill and extending to be considered cultural arbiters in their
into new funding for the arts and sci- own right, the postwar high-culture
ences. With that influx of money came a renaissance was in free fall, and the best
generation of thinkers emboldened to dinner parties were already over.
think new thoughts but also structurally Menand attributes this collapse to
tied to the liberal project. political shifts both at home and abroad.
Menand expresses ambivalence about The civil rights movement called into
the rise of the university as a center of question the United States’ self-image as
intellectual life. With its promise of full a bastion of liberal egalitarianism (and
employment for intellectuals came a rightly so). The Vietnam War likewise
tendency to siphon creative energies challenged the wisdom of the American
into specialized scholarly arenas, he imperial project and of “the best and the
suggests. Several of his characters brightest” who had designed it. At the
exhibit a love-hate relationship with same time, the rapid expansion of mass
their academic posts. “I am ashamed of popular culture, especially in the televi-
being in a university,” Lionel Trilling sion and music industries, displaced the
declared on being promoted to full brief postwar emphasis on high art and
professor at Columbia. “I have one of intellect. As it turned out, most people
the great reputations in the academic preferred rock-and-roll to Cage’s si-
world. This thought makes me retch.” lences and 12-tone disarray.
Such rarefied laments were harder for Given the inexorable nature of
others to make. As Menand notes, many Menand’s story, it can be hard to
Jewish intellectuals were shut out of Ivy imagine how one might restore a world
League respectability, although the most in which achievements in fine art and
ambitious “turned into journalists classical music—or even robust funding
instead and ended up having a greater for public universities—would be
impact on literary and intellectual life perceived as a path to global power and
than most academics ever do.” Women popular acclaim. If certain prognostica-
and people of color encountered more tors are to be believed, the United

Beverly Gage
States is now facing a new cold war with artists and writers who actually lived
China. But it seems unlikely that this through the early Cold War, the period
cold war will produce any sort of seems to have felt less like a renaissance
high-culture renaissance. The most than like a time of vicious and often
powerful calls to increase university terrifying far-right reaction. The defin-
funding focus almost exclusively on ing politician of the decade, after all, was
scientific and technological research, not the brainy Democratic presidential
areas in which the Chinese system candidate Adlai Stevenson (a two-time
seems to excel. There is little compa- loser) but Senator Joseph McCarthy, the
rable concern over the future of Ameri- spiritual progenitor of today’s populist
can arts and letters. In the 1940s, “Big Lie” Republican politicians.
Americans expressed deep anxieties It is safe to say, then, that creative
about their status as cultural influencers. types do not necessarily know that they
Nearly a century later, mass culture are living through a golden age even
seems to be one of the few areas in when that may be the case. Most
which U.S. power remains unparalleled intellectual and artistic life—then as
around the globe. Political polarization, now—gains its spice from dissatisfac-
too, leaves little room for the sort of tion with the world. During the early
bipartisan investment (or embrace of Cold War, that dissatisfaction led to an
intellectual and artistic refugees) that outpouring of grief and despair and
made certain forms of cultural produc- bewilderment and, in the end, a handful
tion possible in the early Cold War. of creative and intellectual break-
Even the most devoted adherents of the throughs with staying power beyond
“new cold war” metaphor do not envi- their immediate moment. Today’s
sion a primarily ideological struggle, anxieties will no doubt inspire their own
waged in the terrain of hearts and wave of innovation in high culture, art,
minds. Today’s anxieties focus on and thought. It is less likely that those
economic, military, and technological achievements will be widely known,
competition, with cultural and intellec- embraced, and supported by millions.∂
tual innovation and freedom distant
matters at best.
Should this seem like cause for
lament, it is worth remembering that the
early Cold War itself was hardly a
worry-free time of academic and artistic
freedom. Menand’s claim that left-
liberal intellectuals and artists achieved
unprecedented celebrity and influence is
true as far as it goes. But as the historian
Richard Hofstadter noted at the time,
the United States has long nurtured a
powerful anti-intellectual strain—one
that reached an especially vicious
apotheosis during the 1950s. To the
knowledge of the island’s practical
A New Cuba? side, its transactionalism.
Almost from the beginning of its
recorded history, Cuba has been seen in
The Fight to Define the such terms, as a supine beauty ready to
Post-Castro Era be seduced and taken, its fruits ex-
ploited. In a letter to Spain’s King
Jon Lee Anderson Ferdinand and Queen Isabella in 1492,
Christopher Columbus wrote lyrically
of the island’s charms:
The multitude of palm trees of various
Cuba: An American History
forms, the highest and most beautiful I
BY ADA F ERRER. Scribner, 2021,
have ever met with, and an infinity of
576 pp. other great and green trees; the birds
W
in rich plumage and the verdure of the
hile I was on a visit to fields; render this country, most serene
Moscow a short time after princes, of such marvelous beauty that
the Soviet collapse, a retired it surpasses all others in charms and
senior Red Army general sighed nostal- graces as the day doth the night in
gically when I asked about his time in luster. I have been so overwhelmed at
Cuba during the 1962 Cuban missile the sight of so much beauty that I have
crisis. “Kuba,” as he called it, heavy on not known how to relate it.
the K, the rest of the word drawn out in
a kind of caress, had held a special place After Columbus’s first footfall in the
in the Soviets’ hearts, he said. Its New World, Cuba fell prey to every
commitment to revolution was passion- manner of European freebooter. They
ate and courageous, and in exchange, the were mostly Spaniards, but the British,
Soviets had given everything they could the Dutch, and the French also came as
to help sustain the country, going to buccaneers, planters, slavers, and
great lengths to make sure the islanders fortune seekers. Just as fortresses were
had whatever they needed to survive. built to ward off the marauders, explor-
“We spoiled them,” he said, throwing up ers such as Hernán Cortés launched
his hands and chuckling ruefully. expeditions from Cuba for the conquest
Cuba inhabits a special place in the of new lands and new treasures. Even-
imaginations of its one-time allies and tually, Cuba was turned into a vast
would-be possessors. In the last plantation for sugar, the cash commod-
hundred-odd years, these have in- ity of its era, and into a great hub for
cluded the Spaniards and the Ameri- the racket that evolved with it—the
cans, as well as the Soviets. All regard African slave trade. Spain’s colonial
Cuba with the covetous memories of tenure ended in the twilight years of the
former lovers—longing mingled with nineteenth century with the emergence
of the United States as a world power,
JON LEE ANDERSON is a staff writer for The
New Yorker and the author of Che Guevara: A hungry for its own offshore dominions.
Revolutionary Life. By then, the economies of the two lands

Jon Lee Anderson
were deeply intertwined, with American Haiti,” where a bloody slave revolt at
slave ships supplying most of the the end of the eighteenth century had
African captives brought to Cuba and ended French colonial rule and brought
American merchants buying most of the freedom for its enslaved people.
island’s sugar, rum, and tobacco—all of From its origins in 1868, Cuba’s own
it produced with slave labor. bid for independence was enmeshed
The Americans had coveted Cuba with the movement for abolition. That
ever since the time of the Revolutionary year, a patrician planter named Carlos
War, and in Washington, the debate Manuel de Céspedes gathered his slaves
about taking ownership of the 750-mile- on his land and declared them free at
long island that stretched languorously the same time as he asked them to be
so near American shores was open and his soldiers in a war of independence
unselfconscious. Presidents James against Spain. From then on, in the
Monroe and John Quincy Adams both bloody conflicts and the uneasy periods
advocated annexing the island, as did of peace that followed, Cubans never
Thomas Jefferson, who wrote, “I can- ceased fighting for their independence,
didly confess that I have ever looked on and Black Cubans, additionally, for their
Cuba as the most interesting addition freedom. By the mid-1890s, the brutal
which could ever be made to our system vicissitudes of war—culminating in the
of states.” In 1852, Franklin Pierce won Spanish general Valeriano Weyler’s
the presidency on a promise of annex- infamous concentration camps, in which
ing Cuba as an ideal bolster to the as many as one-tenth of the total Cuban
southern slave economy, and the next population died of disease, hunger, or
year, his vice president, William Rufus mistreatment—had helped create a
King, a slave-owning cotton planter powerful “live free or die” penchant in
from Alabama himself, took the oath of the Cuban psyche.
office while on a visit to the island. By the time the ill-fated USS Maine
Cuba’s Creole elites were torn be- steamed into Havana Harbor in January
tween those who wished to stay with 1898, Cuba had produced an admirable
Spain, annexationists seeking protection canon of heroes and martyrs. Among
and profit from greater involvement with them were the battle-hardened Antonio
the United States (particularly with its Maceo, known as “the Bronze Titan,”
slave trade), and those who sought and the diminutive journalist and poet
national independence. The idea of true José Martí, who, on the eve of his death
sovereignty had been a battle cry rever- in battle in 1895, had written presciently
berating throughout Spanish America to a friend that Cuba’s freedom might
since the French Revolution, and most of yet be won from Spain only to be stolen
the hemisphere’s colonies had broken by the United States.
free since the early nineteenth century. Ordinary Americans, by and large,
Alongside the struggle for freedom sympathized with the Cuban rebels.
from Spain, there were also numerous There were also politicians—Theodore
unsuccessful slave revolts and just as Roosevelt and Senator Henry Cabot
many reprisal massacres. Cuba’s colo- Lodge prominent among them—who saw
nialist planters were fearful of “another imperial opportunities for the United
A New Cuba?
Revolutionary road: antigovernment protesters in Havana, July 2021
States. In 1896, the American war explosion that sank the USS Maine in
correspondent Richard Harding Davis Havana Harbor, killing 256 U.S. sailors,
wrote a paean to Cuban courage in “The that set the Spanish-American War in
Death of Rodriguez,” a piece about a motion. With Spain’s military defeat
youthful rebel he had observed readying secured after a mere 16 weeks of war,
himself for death in front of a Spanish the apple of Madrid’s eye fell to the
firing squad. Comparing the young man’s upstart Yankees.
stoicism with that of the American Over the next half century, Ameri-
revolutionaries who had died trying to cans sought to remold Cuba to their
free themselves from British colonial taste and convenience. Within two years
rule, Davis wrote, “He made a picture of of the Spanish ouster, Washington
such pathetic helplessness, but of such oversaw the ratification of a Cuban
ALEXAN D RE M EN EGHINI / REUTERS
courage and dignity, that he reminded me constitution that gave the United States
on the instant of that statue of Nathan the right to intervene in Cuba and
Hale that stands in the City Hall Park secured Guantánamo Bay as a perma-
above the roar of Broadway, and teaches a nent U.S. naval base. U.S. policymakers
lesson daily to the hurrying crowds of also changed the existing land tenure
moneymakers who pass beneath.” system, opening it up to outside inves-
Although dispatches such as Davis’s tors and fueling a real estate boom in
helped build up American war fever, it which Americans and their sugar
was the mysterious February 15, 1898, corporations were the primary benefi-

Jon Lee Anderson
ciaries. During Prohibition, Cuba mainland, Ferrer starts with Columbus’s

became the anything-goes escape for landing and the subsequent genocidal
Americans wanting to drink alcohol, campaigns that saw the Spaniards hunt
gamble, or get divorced. Along the way, down the island’s inhabitants, the native
Cuban nationalists rebelled, and many Taínos, to near extinction. She contin-
died at the hands of the dictators whom ues on through the next four centuries
the United States saw fit to install or of sugar plantations and slavery and the
leave in place. intertwining of Cuba’s destiny with that
By the time Fidel Castro began of the United States.
cutting a swath across Fulgencio Ba- The rise of Castro and his half
tista’s gangsterish Cuba in the 1950s, thecentury in power occupy a third of the
island’s political firmament was primed book’s 33 chapters, a testament both to
to explode. Indeed, looking back over the dramatic impact of the revolution-
Cuba’s volatile history, it seems inevi- ary changes he brought to Cuban
table that whenever the battle for Cuba’s society and to the complexity of the
sovereignty was finally won, it would be country’s relationship with the United
a big and dramatic event—and it was. States. At the end of one chapter,
Ferrer writes, “The cold war between
A TANGLED WEB these two American republics was never
In Cuba, Ada Ferrer brings home this only about the Cold War, never only
epic in all its heady progression. In her about communism.” Instead, she
foreword, the author, born in Cuba but explains, it was “a struggle between
raised and educated in the United American power and Cuban sover-
States, explains that this book is the eignty, and about what the character
result of 30 years of research. A profes- and limits of each would be.”
sor of history at New York University, For someone whose own family was
Ferrer has made the island and its torn apart by Castro’s revolution, Ferrer
surroundings—and the relationship manages to take a scrupulously agnostic
between her biological homeland and tone in her scrutiny of Cuban and U.S.
her inherited one—the subject of her history. This alone is an admirable
entire career. She has written two previ- achievement. In her introduction, she
ously acclaimed historical works, explains that it was a conscious effort:
Freedom’s Mirror and Insurgent Cuba, and
there is no doubt that this monumental In the process of trying to summon
new book represents another formidable up Cuba’s past, I came to regard it
anew. I learned to see it from within
piece of original scholarship. It is
and without, refusing the binary
written, moreover, in an admirably interpretations imposed from on
paced narrative style, which, one high in Washington and Havana and
suspects, will earn it pride of place Miami. I began translating Cuba for
among the published histories of Cuba. Americans and the United States for
Looking through the prism of the Cubans. Then I used all that to see
relationship between Cuba and the myself, my family, and my own
society that was eventually established home—the United States—with
as the United States on the nearby different eyes.
A New Cuba?
Ferrer leaves readers with a present- States, was built in part by slaves
day Cuba that languishes in the midst brought here from Africa.’” Obama,
of yet another historic juncture: the Ferrer explains, seemed to be saying to
post-Castro limbo. But the Cubans Cubans of African descent, “I see you,
remain as they have always been, the and I understand your centrality in the
citizens of an island nation destined by past and future of your country.”
geography to exist in the lee of the The other notable passage in
American empire. Thanks to Fidel Obama’s speech, according to Ferrer,
Castro and his brother Raúl, Cuba is was his articulation of Cuba’s historical
politically sovereign but economically relationship to the United States.
vulnerable, and its future is tenuous, “Obama spoke of prerevolutionary
with its relationship with the giant of Cuba in terms not entirely unlike those
the north as unreconciled as ever. used by the Cuban government itself,”
she writes. “He spoke of a republic that
NEW BEGINNINGS? the United States treated ‘as something
Ferrer began writing her book in 2015, to exploit, ignor[ing] poverty and
during the historic U.S.-Cuban détente enabl[ing] corruption.’” Of the Cuban
brokered between U.S. President Revolution itself, Obama spoke in
Barack Obama and Raúl Castro. It was respectful terms. He referred to “the
an extraordinary time of hope and ideals that are the starting point for
anticipation for both Cubans and every revolution—America’s revolution,
Americans after five and a half decades Cuba’s revolution, the liberation move-
of hostility, culminating with Obama’s ments around the world.” Remarkably,
visit to Havana in March 2016. Recall- Ferrer explains, “an American president
ing how the Cuban capital was spruced spoke about the Cuban Revolution of
up ahead of the big day, Ferrer notes 1959 and the American Revolution of
that roads were repaved, buildings 1776 in the same breath. More than half
repainted, and windows replaced. a century after it started, the cold war
“Cubans joked that if Obama visited between the United States and Cuba
regularly, the city would look new in no seemed to be at its end.”
time,” she writes. With her historian’s As it turned out, however, Obama’s
eye for the pivotal moment, Ferrer trip was the high-water mark of an
highlights two crucial parts of the opening that did not last. The surprise
groundbreaking speech that Obama victory of Donald Trump over Hillary
gave in Havana’s venerable Gran Teatro, Clinton in the 2016 U.S. presidential
with Castro in attendance and a live election soon brought an end to the
broadcast on Cuban state television. brief U.S.-Cuban rapprochement and
“The first came early,” she recounts, coincided with the death of Fidel
“when the United States’ first Black Castro at the age of 90. It was the end
president began outlining the bonds of an era in more ways than one.
between the two countries by declaring: In 2018, Raúl Castro, who had
‘We share the same blood. . . . We both succeeded his brother after he fell ill a
live in a new world, colonized by decade earlier, stood down from the
Europeans. Cuba, like the United presidency and handed the reins of

Jon Lee Anderson
power to Miguel Díaz-Canel, a hand these impacts most acutely. “Those who
picked loyalist in his late 50s. Then, in had opened small businesses hoping to
April 2021, two months short of his own capitalize on the rise of U.S. tourism
90th birthday, Castro relinquished his shut their doors and parked their
post as first secretary of the Cuban carts. . . . Food supplies dwindled, lines
Communist Party, also to Díaz-Canel. grew longer, prices climbed higher.”
By then, as he declared at the time, he Despite his victory in the 2020 U.S.
felt his job was done. In 2019, a new presidential election and notwithstand
Cuban constitution was ushered in, in ing his campaign promise to roll back
which socialism was deemed “irrevo the most deleterious of Trump’s meas
cable” as the country’s sole political ures, Joe Biden has made few changes to
credo but allowances were made for existing U.S. Cuba policy out of an
aspects of capitalism, including private apparent fear of reprisal from the
ownership of property and businesses influential conservative Cuban Ameri
and foreign investment. Somos continui- can vote in Florida. This lack of change,
dad—“We are continuity”—has been combined with chronic shortages of
the transition’s catch phrase. basic essentials, has led to a widespread
Although Ferrer shies away from a feeling of pessimism. When protests
final judgment on the Castro era, she erupted in cities and towns across the
highlights growing discontent among island in July 2021—an unprecedented
ordinary people. Many Cubans, she display of dissatisfaction by ordinary
writes, “seemed to be more interested in Cubans—the government blamed the
change than in continuity. It wasn’t United States for stoking the discontent
necessarily a political position, simply and cracked down hard.
an overriding sense that they wanted Under pressure, order was soon
improvement—in their earnings, their restored. But with ongoing shortages
diets, their daily commutes, their that evoke memories of the deprivations
choices and opportunities, their lives.” of the so-called Special Period of the
early 1990s that followed the collapse
TROUBLED TIMES of the Soviet Union, it’s an open ques
Today, life on the island is more difficult tion how long the situation can last. The
than it has been for years. The COVID-19 Castro brothers are no longer in power,
pandemic closed Cuba off from the and a new generation of Cubans, born
outside world and shut down foreign after the demise of the Soviet Union,
tourism, one of the country’s most are not part of the socialist inheritance.
important sources of income, for a year These Cubans, who represent about a
and a half—aggravating the penury that third of the population, are less ideo
came to characterize the Trump years. logical than their parents and grandpar
While in office, Trump adopted a hostile ents and wish mostly to live normal
tone with Havana and closed down most lives. They want to work and live and
of the economic openings that had been travel and to express themselves freely
authorized by Obama to alleviate as people do almost everywhere else in
economic hardship on the island. the Western Hemisphere. Many now
Ordinary Cubans, writes Ferrer, felt also have the means to know what they
A New Cuba?
are missing out on, thanks to access to sovereignty. In the short term, it seems
the Internet and social media. In the likely that more of them will join the
face of this generational sea change, calls for greater freedom in their every-
Cuba’s government wields power in an day lives. Yunior García is a 39-year-old
existential limbo and fills the void by playwright who has emerged as a
exhorting its citizens to be faithful spokesperson for Cubans demanding
patriots. It is their duty, so Havana change. As he put it recently, without
claims, to stand up for the Cuban flourish, “We want a country where
independence that was fought for, won, everyone has a place, an inclusive
and consolidated by the revolution and country where the rights of all citizens
through socialism. are respected.” Sometimes, the simplest
Whether Cuba’s ruling Communist things are the most elusive.∂
Party can secure another half century in
power by embracing capitalism and
controlling it within an autocratic state,
as China and Vietnam have done,
remains to be seen. A “modestly mixed
economy,” observes Ferrer, is what
appears to be on the government’s
drawing board. But dissatisfaction with
government control remains, and Ferrer
suggests that the state will likely con-
tinue to repress those who disagree with
its policies—pointing to an early decree
by Díaz-Canel prohibiting artists from
performing or exhibiting in public
without prior permission from the
Ministry of Culture.
Ferrer rightly defines the current
Cuban reality as a “crisis,” with a future
that is far from clear. She makes the
point, however, that “improvement in
the day-to-day lives of Cuban people
depends on more than the occupant of
the White House.” Such changes also
depend on decisions taken by Cuba’s
government and, ultimately, by the
Cuban people themselves. In the end,
she suggests, it will be up to Cuba’s
citizens—ordinary civilians—to show
both governments the way forward.
Meanwhile, Cuba’s people increas-
ingly express aspirations that transcend
historical concerns about national

much of Africa, Asia, and Latin Amer-
From the Jaws ica, has shifted between two poles. At
times, Washington, so it claimed, tried
of Retreat to use its power to make countries in
those regions more prosperous and
democratic, as it did most recently in
Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Afghanistan and Iraq. At other times,
the Persistence of American U.S. policy eschewed such transforma-
Ambition tive ambitions. Instead, it prioritized
stability, which often meant supporting
undemocratic regimes if that served
Erez Manela Washington’s interests.
In the immediate aftermath of World
War II, U.S. policymakers were gener-
The End of Ambition: The United States ally sympathetic toward the aspirations
and the Third World in the Vietnam Era of Third World peoples, as, for example,
BY MARK ATWOOD LAWRENCE. with the liberation of India and Indone-
Princeton University Press, 2021, sia from colonial rule. As the Cold War
408 pp. intensified, however, U.S. policy priori-
ties shifted toward the containment of
T
he history of the United States communism. Thus, in the 1950s, Wash-
in the postwar era is replete with ington was perfectly willing to work with
American efforts to change authoritarian governments (such as those
other nations. These projects often failed in South Korea and Taiwan) as long as
to achieve their goals, but few so com- they were dependably anticommunist
pletely as the recent one in Afghanistan. and to help overthrow democratically
After 20 years, a great many lives lost, elected ones (such as in Iran and Guate-
and untold billions spent, the Taliban— mala) if they appeared to be otherwise.
the very same group that the United In the name of anticommunism, the
States had intervened to remove at the United States also backed the French
outset—returned to power while U.S. war to regain and defend France’s
personnel were still mid-evacuation. colonial rule in Indochina. When the
The retreat from Afghanistan follows French suffered the decisive defeat at
a pattern in U.S. policy toward the part Dien Bien Phu, in 1954, Washington
of the world that in the past was known assumed the burden of containing
as the Third World but is now more communism in Southeast Asia.
commonly referred to as the Global In The End of Ambition, the historian
South. In the decades since the United Mark Atwood Lawrence argues that the
States became a global superpower in election of the young, charismatic
the 1940s, its approach to that large John F. Kennedy as U.S. president
swath of the world, which encompasses brought another brief burst of optimism
about the transformative potential of
EREZ MANELA is Professor of History at
Harvard University and a co-editor of The U.S. relations with the Third World. As
Development Century: A Global History. newly sovereign states rapidly replaced
retreating European empires, especially tions solely through the lens of the
in Africa, the U.S. administration voiced White House, the National Security
support for the aspirations that Third Council, and the State Department—
World peoples expressed for democracy important as these organs are—tends to
and development. But with Kennedy’s obscure the global ambitions and impact
assassination and the escalation of the of other parts of the U.S. government
war in Vietnam, Washington’s approach and of other U.S.-based entities that
started to shift. By the end of the operated abroad, such as philanthropies
decade, with Richard Nixon in the and nongovernmental organizations.
White House, the United States was Such actors played important roles in
again openly prioritizing anticommu- massively ambitious, transformative
nism over liberation in the Third World. initiatives that took place in the Third
Lawrence traces the brief rise and World in that era, including the green
rapid decline of Washington’s support revolution in agriculture and the global
for newly independent Third World eradication of smallpox.
countries in the 1960s. Although his Today, media coverage and academic
book begins with Kennedy’s election and analysis of American foreign policy also
ends with the rise of the Nixon Doc- tend to concentrate on U.S. military
trine, its core chapters zero in on the activities and on the high-level debates
presidency of Lyndon Johnson—when, in Congress and the White House. As
Lawrence argues, the retreat from the with commentary during the Vietnam
ambition of the Kennedy years began. era and the histories of that time that
Lawrence points to the escalation of followed, this focus draws attention
the American war in Vietnam as a major away from ambitious work that other
reason for the dissipation of the high parts of the U.S. government and other
hopes of the Kennedy years. The war sectors of American society are carrying
kept U.S. policymakers distracted and out in the Global South—work that
sullied the United States’ image abroad, may prove, in the long run, to have a
making it more difficult for Washington greater impact on the U.S. role in the
to present itself as an ally to Third world than the stories in the headlines.
World countries. Later, the humiliating
defeat in that war would sour the THE RULE OF FOUR
American public on military interven- In The End of Ambition, Lawrence
tions abroad and bring about, even if delves deeply into the perspectives and
only temporarily, a determination to deliberations of top policymakers in the
retreat from foreign entanglements. White House and the State Depart-
Yet if the Vietnam War distracted ment. Following the old Washington
U.S. policymakers from their more adage that “personnel is policy,” he
high-minded ambitions in the Third carefully tracks who rose and who fell in
World, the focus on that conflict in those agencies across the 1960s and how
most histories of U.S. foreign relations those changes help explain policy
has overshadowed the many other ways decisions. Officials in the Department
in which Americans were engaging with of Defense, the military, the CIA, and
the world. Viewing U.S. foreign rela- Congress also make appearances,

Erez Manela
although less often. Moreover, rather ment and later as Johnson’s national
than survey U.S. policy toward the security adviser. The nation-builders
Third World in its entirety, Lawrence shared some basic premises with the
concentrates on relations with five globalists but were much more worried
countries, selected for their geographic about communist expansion and did not
diversity and geopolitical significance: think newly independent countries could
Brazil, India, Iran, Indonesia, and the be left to their own devices to stop it.
white-minority regime in what was then Rather, such states needed firm U.S.
Rhodesia and is now Zimbabwe. guidance delivered through comprehen-
Lawrence is especially interested in sive aid programs that would steer them
the outlooks that guided top U.S. onto the right course. Yet time and again,
decision-makers in forming policy the nation-builders’ efforts to cajole or
toward the Third World in the 1960s, coerce Third World governments to
and he offers a useful taxonomy of four move in a desired direction failed.
different approaches toward these Instead, postcolonial leaders deftly
regions. He calls one group “the played the superpowers against each
globalists.” This category included other to preserve their freedom of action.
officials such as Chester Bowles and The third group Lawrence describes
John Kenneth Galbraith, both of whom are those who adopted what he calls “the
served as ambassador to India in this ‘strongpoint’ outlook.” These were
period; Adlai Stevenson, who was U.S. officials who thought, quite simply, that
ambassador to the UN; and the Ken- the Third World did not matter much to
nedy adviser Arthur Schlesinger, Jr. U.S. interests; Washington, therefore,
They opposed European imperialism, should not get too entangled in it. What
supported self-determination and the mattered were U.S. alliances in the
UN, and thought that postcolonial industrialized world, primarily with
nations should largely be allowed to Japan and countries in Western Europe.
find their own paths of political and Lawrence sees Secretary of State Dean
social development. The globalists had Rusk and Undersecretary of State
Kennedy’s ear, but the president George Ball as leading exponents of this
worried about the domestic political outlook. Despite occupying the com-
risks of their approach, which critics manding heights of the foreign policy
saw as too sanguine about the dangers establishment throughout much of the
of communism, so he kept them at 1960s, these officials were continually
arm’s length. Under Johnson, their frustrated in their efforts to keep the
influence declined even further. United States out of Third World
Despite their prominence in elite entanglements, most notably in Vietnam.
circles, then, the globalists appear to In the end, they, too, could not escape
have had relatively little influence on the pervasive hold of anticommunism in
policy decisions in this era. U.S. politics in the Cold War era.
The second group were “the nation- Finally, Lawrence describes a fourth
builders,” most notably represented by group, “the unilateralists,” represented
Walt Rostow, who served as the director primarily by military and intelligence
of policy planning in the State Depart- officials. They discounted cooperation
with other governments, even core allies. picture that ultimately emerges is one in
Instead, they preferred the direct appli- which, despite some changes in tone and
cation of U.S. power, whether through personnel as the decade progressed, U.S.
military action or covert operations. This policy toward the five countries on which
approach receives less attention than the Lawrence focuses did not change as
other three in the book, which focuses much as one might have expected.
more on officials in the White House, Each case was different, of course,
the National Security Council, and the but several common threads emerge.
State Department than on those in the First, throughout the 1960s, disagree-
military or the CIA. This is not atypical; ments within the foreign policy estab-
after all, the latter tend to publish fewer lishment often fostered ambivalence
books and make fewer speeches that and hedging. Second, perceptions of
historians can cite, and their organiza- domestic political risk led even officials
tions’ archives, too, are often far less sympathetic to Third World aspirations
accessible. Yet arguably, the unilateralists to tread carefully lest they be tarred
had the greatest impact on U.S. policy in with coddling communism. Finally, and
the Third World in this era. It was their perhaps most important, Third World
outlook, after all, that produced the Bay leaders, jealous of their hard-won
of Pigs invasion in 1961 and, a few years sovereignty, resisted U.S. efforts to
later, played a major role in escalating shape their behavior, whether with
the American war in Vietnam. carrots or sticks. For example, Lawrence
finds that when Washington tried to use
STUCK WITH CONTAINMENT increased development aid to draw
In framing his book’s argument, Law- governments closer to its orbit, the
rence stresses how Washington’s policy result was often the opposite: postcolo-
in the Third World shifted in the nial leaders instead reached out to other
course of the 1960s from the great powers, often the Soviet Union, in
promise of the Kennedy years to wary order to balance against U.S. influence
disengagement under Nixon. Lawrence and preserve their freedom of action.
emphasizes that the shift began under To the extent that a consistent
Johnson, who, compared with Kennedy, through line emerges in Washington’s
was more transactional in his approach policy toward these places, it can be
to foreign policy and therefore less summed up in one very predictable
keen to give U.S. aid to governments, word: “containment.” Nearly every
such as India’s, that refused to toe decision on whom to support, how
Washington’s Cold War line. much aid to give, and what public rheto-
Yet as the book turns to a detailed ric to deploy seems to have been calcu-
account of U.S. policy in its five case lated to ward off any risk of communist
studies, these distinctions—between gains, or the appearance of such gains.
different administrations, between In fact, the impression one gets from
different policy approaches—often seem the detailed narrative in this book is
to be overshadowed by the relentless slog that whatever sympathies Kennedy, or
of policymaking amid shifting, complex, Johnson, or some of their advisers may
and ambiguous circumstances. The have had for the ambitions of Third

Erez Manela
World peoples, the political exigencies for human rights and then as a posture
of containment tightly circumscribed of muscular anticommunism that saw
their policy choices. the proliferation of U.S. military
Herein lies an irony. Lawrence argues entanglements across these regions,
that the escalation in Vietnam, and Cold often justified in the name of promoting
War concerns more generally, made U.S. American values.
policymakers less responsive to the The end of the Cold War ignited
aspirations of Third World peoples and even greater ambition in Washington.
that, therefore, there was a “lost opportu- The Gulf War of 1990–91, which
nity” to forge better relations with those President George H. W. Bush framed as
peoples and help them make gains in a defense of Kuwaiti self-determination
democracy and development. Yet the in the face of Iraqi aggression, was
story he tells suggests that, judged strictly followed by U.S. interventions in
by the standard of containment, the U.S. Somalia, the Balkans, and elsewhere.
position in all five cases improved in the Then came the 9/11 attacks and the U.S.
1960s. Brazil and Indonesia both saw invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, where
military coups that replaced leftist Washington’s ambition reached another
governments with pro-Western generals. tragic climax as the United States sought
Iran, already leaning toward the United to restructure entire societies in the
States in the early 1960s, was even more name of prosperity and democracy (and,
firmly ensconced in its camp at decade’s of course, counterterrorism). Only in
end. India, an avatar of forceful neutral- the last half decade or so, with the
ism early on, saw its influence diminished ignominious collapse of these projects,
by regional conflict and domestic trou- has the United States again turned back
bles. And southern Africa, where white- toward retrenchment, at least for now.
minority rule had appeared likely to
cause a regional conflagration, seemed to VARIETIES OF AMBITION
have largely stabilized by the end of the A somewhat different view of the
decade, at least from Washington’s history of U.S. engagement in the
perspective. In short, if the 1960s showed Global South emerges if one looks
that support for friendly dictators helped beyond the policymakers in the White
Washington contain communism in the House and the exercise of U.S. military
Third World, it is hardly surprising that, power. During the 1960s, Johnson and
as Lawrence concludes, the incoming his foreign policy mandarins became
Nixon administration committed even increasingly entangled in Vietnam and
more firmly to that strategy. retreated from any expansive liberal
Yet if one peers just beyond the ambitions in the Third World in favor
chronological scope of this book, it of working with friendly dictators. At
becomes clear that the retrenchment of the same time, however, a substantial
the Nixon Doctrine turned out to be number of other Americans, along with
only temporary. In fact, the zeal to a great many others across the world,
change the Third World soon returned were deeply engaged in two of the most
to Washington in the Carter and Rea- ambitious and consequential global
gan years, first in the form of a crusade efforts of the last century.
Foreign entanglements: U.S. soldiers patrolling in Vietnam, January 1967
The first was the green revolution, did foundations, research institutes, and
which introduced into the Global South expert networks that were based in the
a range of new agricultural technologies United States or funded with U.S.
that massively expanded the global money, both public and private.
food supply and earned the American This perspective holds lessons for the
agronomist Norman Borlaug the Nobel current moment. Perhaps, if the pattern
Peace Prize in 1970. The second was the of U.S. foreign policy that The End of
World Health Organization’s Small- Ambition highlights holds, the debacle in
pox Eradication Program, headed by Afghanistan, like the one in Vietnam,
the American epidemiologist Donald will merely signal another act in the
Henderson, which not only rid the familiar drama of intervention, re-
RO B E RT E L L I S O N / CAM E R A P R ES S / R E DU X
world of smallpox, a deadly virus that trenchment, and back again. But as was
had afflicted humanity for centuries, the case in the mid-twentieth century,
but also helped bolster vaccination this pattern represents only one part of
initiatives across much of the Global the interactions between the United
South by setting the groundwork for States and the Global South.
the WHO’s Expanded Program on Take the example of global health,
Immunization. The U.S. Department which the COVID-19 pandemic has
of Agriculture and the Communicable brought starkly to the fore. In the 1960s
Disease Center (now the Centers for and 1970s, the United States collabo-
Disease Control and Prevention) rated with the Soviet Union, as well as
played crucial roles in these efforts, as many other countries, on smallpox

Erez Manela
eradication even as Washington was rated public-private partnerships.

waging a brutal war in Southeast Asia. Although cooperation with China might
The two superpowers could cooperate be lacking at the moment, the global
in this way even amid strategic conflict distribution of COVID-19 vaccines would
because they both had an interest in represent ambition akin to the eradica-
eradicating smallpox in the Global tion of smallpox. Bold multilateral
South (national vaccination programs action on climate change could have an
had earlier eliminated it from the impact on the order of the green revolu-
Global North), because their scientists tion. After the chaotic withdrawal from
could speak to each other and work Afghanistan, Washington appears to be
together, and because there existed an headed for retrenchment, as it was, at
international organization, the WHO, least temporarily, in the aftermath of
through which they could coordinate the war in Vietnam. But as history
these efforts with each other and with shows, this does not mean that ambi-
dozens of other countries. tious global efforts are out of reach.∂
Today, the world is witnessing what
some have called a new cold war be-
tween the United States and China,
even as it is experiencing the deadliest
pandemic in a century. So far, Washing-
ton and Beijing appear to be focused on
finger-pointing and nationalist competi-
tion. Still, just like half a century ago,
the two great powers today have a
shared interest in ending the pandemic,
their scientists can speak to each other
(and have long been doing so, when
permitted), and the WHO, whatever its
flaws, still allows the two countries to
coordinate their efforts along with those
of dozens of other countries. The
current pandemic, then, would seem to
present an ideal opportunity for the sort
of collaboration amid conflict that
enabled the eradication of smallpox.
More broadly, if Americans see it as
in their interest to promote positive
change in the Global South, as they
should, this history suggests that the
best way to do so is not with unilateral
military force or even bilateral aid
agreements. Rather, the most successful
programs have been broad multinational
collaborations and have often incorpo-
Recent Books Aftershocks: Pandemic Politics and the End
of the Old International Order
BY COLIN KAHL AND THOMAS
Political and Legal WRIGHT. St. Martin’s Press, 2021,
464 pp.
G. John Ikenberry
In this gripping, fine-grained account of
the unfolding COVID-19 crisis, Kahl and
Wright paint a vivid portrait of a deeply
Liberalism in Dark Times: The Liberal dysfunctional international order, inca-
Ethos in the Twentieth Century pable of even simple cooperation in the
BY JOSHUA L. CHERNISS. Princeton face of a deadly global public health
University Press, 2021, 328 pp. emergency. At one level, the book is a
work of contemporary history, telling the
I
n this fascinating book, Cherniss story of an ongoing global political
explores the ideas of liberal thinkers crisis—a chaotic spectacle of uncertainty,
from the World War II and Cold War fear, and political expediency in which
eras, who were searching for ways to multilateral cooperation quickly gave way
respond to fascism and totalitarianism. to nationalism, populism, and great-power
The book builds on portraits of the rivalry. At another level, the book seeks to
American theologian Reinhold Niebuhr, use the crisis as a sort of diagnostic tool to
the French philosophers Albert Camus identify the long-term trajectory of the
and Raymond Aron, and the British international order. Kahl and Wright
philosopher Isaiah Berlin, mid-twentieth- argue that the pandemic has played the
century intellectuals who sought to role of catalyst—more than cause—in the
defend liberalism by reimagining it. In final breakdown of the U.S.-led global
each case, these thinkers were preoccu- system. The era of great-power coopera-
pied by how liberalism could survive as a tion is over. Transnational interdepen-
way of life in the face of extremist dence—in economics, security, public
projects that had as their ultimate aim the health, and the environment—may be
root-and-branch elimination of liberalism growing, but so, too, is the U.S.-Chinese
and democracy. In each case, Cherniss rivalry, creating a negative synergy that
identifies a similar move: the defense of will make the world less stable and less
liberalism less as a set of policies and safe. The United States and like-minded
institutions and more as an “ethic of countries should give up on building a
politics”—a political temperament that global system of governance, the authors
acknowledged its own weaknesses and argue, and instead work together to
vulnerabilities but also its deep virtues as address shared dangers, while upholding
the great protector of human freedom. In the liberal international principles of
each case, these thinkers struggled with transparency and accountability.
the “liberal predicament,” which was to
find a way to combat the ruthlessness of
antiliberal movements without also
becoming ruthless and illiberal.

Recent Books
Democracy in the Time of Coronavirus and inclusion against inequality and

BY DANIELLE ALLEN. University of exclusion. The United Nations, the
Chicago Press, 2021, 128 pp. premier multilateral organization, en-
shrines the principle of sovereign equality.
In this stirring manifesto, the renowned But other organizations, such as the
political theorist Allen argues that the International Monetary Fund and the
United States’ woeful response to the World Bank, have differential voting
COVID-19 pandemic must serve as a quotas, and the Nuclear Nonproliferation
wake-up call for Americans to rebuild Treaty formally divides the world into
their public health infrastructure and nuclear haves and have-nots. The book
renew their constitutional democracy. develops a “closure theory” to explain why
For Allen, the crux of the problem is the the rules and institutions of the interna-
breakdown of the American social tional system exhibit this mix of equality
contract, a rupture that left minorities and inequality of rights and privileges.
and low-income workers unprotected in States have used both inclusion and
the face of the pandemic. She sees this as exclusion to shape the global playing field.
a “learning moment,” an opportunity to Those seeking to establish rules and
pose constitutional questions about how institutions of global governance peddle
the United States might better equip universalist principles to attract other
itself to cope with global threats. Pro- states. But more exclusive groupings of
tecting what the U.S. Constitution calls states—clubs—provide ways for states to
the “general welfare” is the first task of assert dominance, define property rights,
government, and the laudable recent and control the flow and distribution of
efforts of other democracies, such as resources. Viola shows how the dynamics
Australia and Germany, help point the of inclusion and exclusion are linked and
way. As Allen sees it, the failures of the work together. The modern system of
United States to protect people from international relations may be both more
the deadly virus—and from the human open and more global than ever before,
suffering and social inequalities that but it is also a bounded political space run
followed—are more than public policy by privileged members.
missteps; they reveal a deeper failure to
make good on the “responsibilities of Designs on Empire: America’s Rise to
governance” that undergird the legiti- Power in the Age of European Imperialism
macy of a constitutional democracy. BY ANDREW PRIEST. Columbia
University Press, 2021, 304 pp.
The Closure of the International System:
How Institutions Create Political Equalities The United States came of age as a great
and Hierarchies power in the shadow of European empire.
BY LORA ANNE VIOLA. Cambridge In 1898, with the Spanish-American War,
University Press, 2020, 336 pp. it launched its own imperial career. This
fascinating and deeply researched book
In this groundbreaking book, Viola argues explores American thinking about empire
that all international systems contain two in the decades between the Civil War and
competing logics of order, pitting equality the conflict with Spain. Priest uncovers a
Recent Books
vibrant debate in the United States about in general and specifically for college-
the dangers and opportunities of follow- educated women. For much of the
ing in European imperial footsteps, often twentieth century, the pay gap between
provoked by concrete British, French, women and men reflected discrimina-
German, Ottoman, and Spanish moves tion, the consequences of marriage,
on the world stage. Priest shows that a differences in educational attainment,
strand of anti-imperial thinking (the and occupational choices. Today, by
legacy of the anticolonial American contrast, those obstacles to gender
Revolution) remained prominent parity have been reduced, and the pay
throughout the nineteenth century, often gap reflects other causes, including how
manifest in the claim that U.S. overseas childbirth and child rearing interrupt
expansion was in fact commercial rather female labor-force participation. More
than territorial and that the country’s important, it reflects how women tend
ideals were meant to inspire worldwide to choose employers and career paths
movements toward constitutional self- that allow for flexibility and do not
rule. But anti-imperialist rhetoric was require overtime hours and erratic work
often matched by support for an ambi- schedules. This, in turn, allows their
tious global presence to accompany the spouses to pursue better-compensated
United States’ rising wealth and power. positions, further accentuating the gap
Ideas of racial and civilizational hierarchy in “couple equity.” Addressing this
permeated the thinking of American problem will require firms to make
elites, even as those elites believed in the flexible and part-time work more
progressive role their country could play productive and better remunerated and
in world affairs. governments to provide more generous
childcare. More fundamentally, redress-
ing the pay gap will require revisiting
the social norm that women are primar-
Economic, Social, and ily responsible for child rearing.
Environmental
Shutdown: How COVID Shook the
World’s Economy
Barry Eichengreen BY ADAM TOOZE. Viking, 2021,
368 pp.
Career and Family: Women’s Century- In this first draft of history, Tooze
Long Journey Toward Equity surveys the economic effects of and
BY CLAUDIA GOLDIN. Princeton public policy responses to the COVID-19
University Press, 2021, 344 pp. pandemic. The author ranges widely
over economics, finance, geopolitics,
I
n this deeply researched, engagingly and epidemiology, displaying a firm
written, and surprisingly personal grasp of both minutiae and the big
book, Goldin summarizes the picture. His focus is on central bankers,
history and current state of gender finance ministers, and the public policy
disparities in employment and pay, both responses they crafted under intense

Recent Books
pressure. Tooze applauds them for their social and political consequences,
heading off the worst but does not shy the authors argue, can be reversed by an
away from difficult questions about the increase in the federal minimum wage,
implications of their actions for the which would spur employers to take
future: he wonders whether central steps to boost the productivity of
bank independence will remain viable low-paid workers; by legal changes that
given how central bankers stretched enhance the ability of workers to
their mandates and what unprecedented organize and represent themselves
budget deficits and heavy public debts collectively in negotiations; and by tax
imply for fiscal sustainability and fiscal policies that encourage firms to invest
rules going forward. Future scholars more extensively in worker training.
will see this book as a record of how
informed observers saw the events of No Standard Oil: Managing Abundant
2020 as they unfolded. Readers, having Petroleum in a Warming World
lived through those same events, might BY DEBORAH GORDON. Oxford
ask how they themselves would have University Press, 2021, 368 pp.
written this history.
Gordon is trained as a chemical engi-
The Work of the Future: Building Better neer but thinks like an economist. She
Jobs in the Age of Intelligent Machines favors the preferred intervention of
BY DAVID AUTOR, DAVID A. economists for addressing climate
MINDELL, AND ELISABETH B. change, namely taxing greenhouse gas
REYNOLDS. MIT Press, 2022, 192 pp. emissions. But she stresses that not all
fossil fuels generate the same emissions:
The authors push back on the notion differences in crude products and
that technological advances will lead to refining techniques mean that the
the elimination of countless jobs in the emissions produced by otherwise
future. Technological change, they equivalent amounts of oil and gas can
emphasize, takes time to unfold and vary by a factor of ten. Thus, simply
creates new job opportunities even taxing gas at the pump but neglecting
while destroying old ones. In fact, emissions along the supply chain may
public policy has been more important fail to shift the production of fossil
than technology in shaping labor- fuels toward cleaner sources, unneces-
market outcomes, specifically for less sarily raising costs while squandering
skilled workers without college degrees. opportunities to curb climate change.
Although all advanced economies have Better emission-related data, reported
experienced technological change, the by companies subject to stronger
United States has seen a sharper diver- government oversight, can inform
gence between productivity and wages, better policy. Gordon emphasizes that
a more dramatic decline in labor’s share there is no silver bullet for the climate
of national income, and a more pro- crisis. Fossil fuels, like it or not, will
nounced rise in poorly compensated still be in use in 2050. But they should
jobs, all as a result of policy, not tech- be priced more appropriately, in line
nology. These economic trends and with their social costs. They should be
Recent Books
produced using clean refining tech- a more enlightened U.S. trade policy”
niques and supplemented with clean in the post-Trump era remain uncer-
energy sources developed through tain. The same could be said of other
collaboration among the public sector, countries’ trade policies.
the private sector, and academia.
Populism and Trade: The Challenge to the Military, Scientific, and

Global Trading System
BY KENT JONES. Oxford University
Technological
Press, 2021, 272 pp.
Lawrence D. Freedman
A longtime champion of open trade,
Jones laments the impact on the multi-
lateral trading system of the U.S. Negotiating the New START Treaty
presidency of Donald Trump, the BY ROSE GOT TEMOELLER. Cambria
successful British campaign to leave the Press, 2021, 244 pp.
European Union, and populist move-
ments worldwide. His explanations for Winning and Losing the Nuclear Peace:
the protectionist turn and its connec- The Rise, Demise, and Revival of Arms
tion to populism are not new: multilat- Control
eralism is the project of much-resented BY MICHAEL KREPON. Stanford
elites, foreigners are viewed with University Press, 2021, 640 pp.
suspicion, and populist leaders have no
scruples about shattering the norms Arms Control for the Third Nuclear Age:
that buttress the global trading system. Between Disarmament and Armageddon
More original, however, are Jones’s BY DAVID A. COOPER. Georgetown
ambitious proposals for galvanizing University Press, 2021, 248 pp.
support for that system. He calls on the
G
U.S. Congress to reassert its control ottemoeller’s lucid, candid, and
over presidential decisions on national engaging memoir of her role in
security tariffs and the use of Section getting the Russians to agree to
301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which the 2011 New start treaty—and per-
authorizes the application of punitive suading the U.S. Senate to ratify it—is
tariffs against other countries. The an encomium to the hard slog of diplo-
European Union should address its macy. Her account demonstrates the
“democratic deficit” so that European importance of having a strong negotiat-
publics feel that their voices are heard ing team with good morale, allowing
when the European Commission technical experts time to work on the
negotiates trade agreements. The World details, producing agreement texts that
Trade Organization should adopt a are both clear and mean the same thing
more flexible interpretation of the in multiple languages, forging a working
escape clauses in its agreements to relationship with interlocutors (even
avoid alienating nationalist members. when this requires some performative
Jones concludes that “the prospects for losses of temper), dealing with unrealis-

Recent Books
tic demands from bosses in Washington world is stuck in the nuclear age: the idea
and dissuading them from imposing of abolishing nuclear weapons and the
unrealistic agendas, and creating public notion of finding war-winning strategies
support for an agreement to keep for their use are both forms of escapism.
pressure on the Senate to ratify it. Restraints on the numbers and composi-
Unsurprisingly, she reports that both she tions of the world’s nuclear arsenals are
and her Russian counterpart had to be possible, but they would require tough
treated for high blood pressure when negotiations by the United States, not
they returned home for a Christmas only with other countries but also with
break. And she also notes that because skeptical parts of the executive branch
New start did not make strides toward and Congress. As Krepon shows, this
the abolition of nuclear weapons, it got situation can produce perverse outcomes,
only lukewarm support from advocates as Congress funds defense programs
of disarmament. She hoped the agree- either to buy off the military or to serve
ment would be followed by more such as “bargaining chips” to be used to
deals, but her book is a reminder of how persuade the other side to relinquish
hard it was to get even this far. something in return (presumably their
Her message is similar to the one that own bargaining chips).
emerges from Krepon’s comprehensive Cooper’s valuable guide to the theory
and thoroughly researched history of and practice of arms control does not
U.S. nuclear arms control policy. Krepon offer much hope for a rosier future. He
opens with the early efforts to control the points to the “complex, volatile and
new technology, which began soon after adversarial” state of world politics, the
the United States dropped atomic bombs need to think trilaterally rather than
on Japan. In the 1950s, a dialogue was bilaterally now that China has become a
started between the superpowers, leading key player, and a loss of understanding
to breakthrough agreements in the 1960s, about what arms control is for and how it
including the Limited Test Ban Treaty can be achieved. When it comes to
and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, negotiations, he fully appreciates the
and setting the stage for the first strategic importance of process but also urges
arms agreements of the 1970s. Then the policymakers to think clearly about
enterprise stalled, until U.S. President substance. He explores deterrence theory
Ronald Reagan and Soviet Premier and the concept of strategic stability and
Mikhail Gorbachev revived it. Krepon writes about the need for active weapons
gives U.S. President George H. W. Bush programs to encourage other parties to
high marks for his efforts; during the first offer concessions. The benefits of arms
term of his successor, Bill Clinton, arms control, in terms of reassurance, predict-
control was as good as it has ever been. ability, and opportunities for dialogue,
More recently, a low point was reached are often described as “modest but
under U.S. President Donald Trump. useful.” Success requires not only consid-
This is essentially a political and bureau- erable effort but also a favorable geopo-
cratic history, enlivened by generous litical context.
portraits of the key players. Krepon’s
refreshingly realist message is that the
Recent Books
Empire of Destruction: A History of Nazi The Economic Weapon: The Rise of

Mass Killing Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War
BY ALEX J. KAY. Yale University Press, BY NICHOLAS MULDER. Yale
2021, 400 pp. University Press, 2022, 448 pp.
In this meticulous, vivid, and grim For those who see economic sanctions as a
accounting of the deliberate murder of relatively mild way of expressing
civilians by Nazi Germany, Kay manages displeasure at a country’s behavior, this
to keep a balance between careful analysis book, charting how they first emerged as a
of the evidence and reminders of the potential coercive instrument during the
horrors of the events he is describing, first decades of the twentieth century, will
including individuals’ harrowing recollec- come as something of a revelation. In an
tions of surviving by hiding among dead original and persuasive analysis, Mulder
bodies—often those of their own rela- shows how isolating aggressors from global
tives. The attempt to eliminate the commerce and finance was seen as an
Jewish people stands out because of its alternative to war that worked precisely
scale and animating ideology, but Kay because of the pain it imposed on the
shows how that was only the most target society. From the very beginning, it
extreme manifestation of a wider horror was civilians who suffered the most.
that depended on the dehumanization of Nevertheless, the League of Nations
victims and the perfection of the means embraced sanctions and established an
of extermination. In calculating how elaborate legal and bureaucratic apparatus
many people the Nazis killed, he reaches to enforce them. Mulder argues that
a figure of 13 million during the war instead of keeping the peace, this form of
years alone, most of whom were mur- economic warfare aggravated the tensions
dered through starvation, shooting, or of the 1930s, encouraging austerity and
gassing. In addition to the Holocaust autarky and restraining smaller states but
against the Jews, Kay describes the Nazi backfiring against the larger authoritarian
campaigns against people with mental ones, such as Italy.
and physical disabilities, the Polish elite
and the occupants of Warsaw, the Roma,
civilians in Soviet cities, and others
unlucky enough to live in Nazi-occupied
territory. This was an unparalleled
exercise in collective violence, with
“hundreds of thousands of mass murder-
ers at large simultaneously.” Kay eschews
monocausal explanations, pointing to a
combination of Nazi ideology, historical
circumstances that encouraged radicaliza-
tion, and the impunity permitted by war.

Recent Books
Council. This is not a kiss-and-tell

The United States account, but what she does relate of her
interactions with the president is in every
Jessica T. Mathews case worth telling, as is her insight that
Trump’s fragile ego made him a national
security risk, vulnerable to the flattery of
any foreign leader. The political extrem-
There Is Nothing for You Here: Finding ism that continues to grow in the United
Opportunity in the Twenty-first Century States in the aftermath of Trump’s 2020
BY FIONA HILL. Mariner Books, 2021, electoral defeat could, Hill fears, make his
432 pp. years in office “seem like a preface, rather
than a postscript” to the country’s “demo-
H
ill deftly combines three books cratic demise.”
into one to great effect. She
begins with a riveting memoir of Diplomacy and the Future of World Order
her childhood in northern England in a EDITED BY CHESTER A. CROCKER,
family and community plunged into F EN OSLER HAMPSON, AND
poverty by the shutdown of her home- PAMELA AALL. Georgetown
town’s coal mines. She escaped by University Press, 2021, 376 pp.
excelling in school and grasping every
snippet of opportunity that came her way, This collection offers a valuable review of
eventually building a career in the United the successes, failures, and potential of
States as a Russia expert. The story is told international peacemaking and conflict
without the smallest whiff of victimhood management in the still unnamed post–
about the barriers of class and gender she post–Cold War era. Chapters take both a
encountered. The book also offers a regional and a functional approach to
compelling analysis, based on her experi- examine the various ways that states,
ence living in Russia, the United King- multinational organizations, and civil
dom, and the United States, of the society groups manage other people’s
conditions that breed populism. She finds conflicts in places as disparate as Cyprus
striking similarities among the trajectories and Kashmir, address actual or potential
of Russia after the collapse of the Soviet conflicts among major powers in states
Union, the United Kingdom from the rule such as North Korea and Ukraine, and
of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher to cope with transnational threats such as
the Brexit referendum in 2016, and the piracy and terrorism. The conflict
United States, with its spiraling inequality management mechanisms discussed
and loss of opportunity, in the years include conventional bilateral diplo-
leading up to Donald Trump’s presidency. macy, multinational negotiations,
In all three, “the infrastructure of oppor- public diplomacy, sanctions, mediation,
tunity” disappeared, producing the formal peacekeeping, and, pivotally, the
growing anger and cultural despair that threat or actual use of force. The
create an appetite for authoritarian leader- chapters on the role of international
ship. Finally, Hill recounts her time organizations, particularly the United
serving on Trump’s National Security Nations, and on U.S.-Chinese relations
Recent Books
are particularly strong. On balance, the military preparations and eventual war
editors conclude that the space for are the best or only way for the United
international peacemaking and conflict States to respond to China’s ambitions,
management is shrinking due to resur- that countries in the region that have
gent nationalism, a “sovereign backlash” made absolutely clear their determination
against earlier multinational interven- not to choose between allegiance to
tions, and the diminished willingness of China and allegiance to the United States
the major powers to undertake peacemak- would nonetheless be willing to join a
ing missions. On the other hand, regional coalition predicated on military confron-
organizations and local and international tation with China, and that a major war
civil society groups can be more active over Taiwan would stay confined to
and more effective than in the past. Taiwan. These and other wobbly conjec-
tures fatally undermine the argument.
The Strategy of Denial: American Defense
in an Age of Great Power Conflict American Exceptionalism: A New History
BY ELBRIDG E A. COLBY. Yale of an Old Idea
University Press, 2021, 384 pp. BY IAN TYRRELL. University of
Chicago Press, 2021, 288 pp.
U.S.-Chinese relations have deteriorated
to the point where official exchanges have Tyrrell, a distinguished Australian
become little more than destructive historian, has written a rich intellectual
exercises in name-calling. Public hostility history of the dramatic shifts in the
toward the other in both countries is meaning of the defining but, it turns out,
higher than it has been for decades. highly malleable idea of “American
China’s military moves in the South exceptionalism,” from its roots in the
China Sea, its rapid qualitative and revolutionary era to the present. Tracing
quantitative advances in weaponry, and the term’s changing significance illumi-
its escalating invasions of Taiwanese nates U.S. history more broadly. At
airspace have made a U.S.-Chinese war times, this exceptionalism’s principal
over Taiwan alarmingly possible. In this substance has been political; at other
climate, Colby’s step-by-step explication times, religious; and at yet other times
of a U.S. strategy that would deny China (although this has been poorly appreci-
success in such a war is a welcome ated), it has rested primarily on the
contribution. Washington can deny country’s material abundance, whether of
Beijing success, he argues, by recruiting its rich natural endowment or its bounti-
an “anti-hegemonic coalition” in the ful consumer society. Often, American
region whose combined power would be exceptionalism seemed to denote only
sufficient to defeat China. Although that the United States was uniquely
detailed on some points, the proposed great in its wealth and power. But in the
strategy rests on some major unexamined beginning, when the fledgling country
and highly questionable assumptions: was neither wealthy nor powerful,
that China is set on achieving regional exceptionalism was nonetheless a
hegemony in the short term and global strongly held “loose and grassroots
predominance in the long term, that feeling” that the new country was a

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major political innovation, destined to be statistic and can make questions of

a model for others. After numerous policy come vividly alive. Osnos visits
manifestations in the intervening years, Clarksburg, West Virginia, and Chicago
American exceptionalism has emerged in to paint the lives of the country’s poor.
the past dozen years as a “state-sponsored But his portrait of the transformation of
ideology,” a full-throated “ism” seen “the Golden Triangle” of Greenwich,
in some quarters as an accurate litmus Connecticut, where he grew up, is the
test of patriotism. Closely related but book’s high point. The town’s most
distinct concepts, including “the Ameri- influential residents were once wealthy,
can way of life” (framing American moderate Republicans, of the likes of
identity in opposition to communism), the Bush family patriarch Prescott Bush,
“the American dream” (the opportunity who were imbued with a strong sense of
for all people to achieve everything their civic duty and a belief in government.
ability and ambition allow), and “the Osnos finds Greenwich now inhabited
American creed” (capturing the political by flamboyant hedge fund billionaires
values of individualism and egalitarian- and private equity financiers building
ism), provide additional insights. A ever-larger mansions. These blinkered
tough closing chapter examines the often folks are libertarians who oppose taxes
gaping differences between the beliefs and regulations of any kind; they
Americans hold regarding their coun- fervently believe that all they have
try’s exceptionalism and the realities achieved is their own doing, and they
of life in the United States and Ameri- see little role for government in their
can conduct abroad. lives or their communities.
Wildland: The Making of America’s Fury

BY EVAN OSNOS. Farrar, Straus and Western Europe
Giroux, 2021, 480 pp.
Andrew Moravcsik
Osnos returned from a decade living
abroad to find a drastically altered
United States, whose core values—the
rule of law, truth, the right and the Free: A Child and a Country at the End
ability to pursue a better life—appeared of History
to be under siege. His research into BY LEA YPI. Norton, 2022, 288 pp.
what has changed and why, told princi-
T
pally through the stories of individuals, his prize-winning memoir
stretched over seven years. The resulting recounts with wit, charm, and
book captures the widening inequalities wisdom the author’s life before
of wealth and opportunity and the and after the fall of communism in
hardening of class lines that Donald Albania. Now a professor of political
Trump exploited. Others have recog- philosophy at the London School of
nized these same trends, but no one has Economics, she recalls her early youth
told the story with more immediacy and in that hermetically sealed tyranny,
impact. Osnos has an eye for the telling when she embraced the cult of person-
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ality established by the country’s this epochal shift well, arguing that the
idiosyncratic despot, Enver Hoxha. It central problem lay in divergent national
was a place where all truths were lies, interests. With a monetary crisis weaken-
including the Muslim heritage and ing the Bretton Woods system and a
secret anticommunist history of her geopolitical debacle in Vietnam, the
own family—yet for an 11-year-old, the United States came to believe that the
country was safe and reassuring. She Europeans should spend more on de-
was disappointed and displaced by the fense, reduce their agricultural protec-
fall of communism, only to have her tions, accept the devaluation of the U.S.
hopes dashed again when, as in so many dollar, and abstain from criticism of
postcommunist states, liberal parties American global priorities and actions. If
advocating free markets and democratic Europe refused, Kissinger reasoned, the
politics allowed their ideals to be United States should seek to keep it
corrupted by the kleptocratic tempta- divided. Understandably, the Europeans
tions of privatization. The government viewed such demands as misguided and
encouraged citizens to invest in a unreasonable—and some began to
pyramid scheme, triggering a revolt and question whether the United States was a
eventually a civil war—a process in reliable ally. The U.S. government has
which her family, along with many never returned to its full support for
others, lost everything. After years of Europe, Larres argues, although he surely
disorientation, she left the country and overreaches in treating the state of
began the long path to her current transatlantic relations under former
position. Drawing philosophical lessons President Donald Trump as a natural
from her experience, she dismisses both continuation of Nixon’s policies.
socialists who cling to utopian ideals
and libertarians who espouse a minimal Principles and Agents: The British Slave
state, opting for a more moderate Trade and Its Abolition
commitment to social democracy. BY DAVID RICHARDSON . Yale
University Press, 2022, 384 pp.
Uncertain Allies: Nixon, Kissinger, and the
Threat of a United Europe Powered by mass demand for West
BY KLAUS LARRES. Yale University Indian sugar, the immense profitability
Press, 2021, 432 pp. of transporting slaves, and the domi-
nance of the Royal Navy, the United
In the 1950s and 1960s, the U.S. govern- Kingdom became the leading slave
ment enthusiastically supported Euro- trader of the late eighteenth and early
pean integration. Yet under President nineteenth centuries. The British
Richard Nixon and his adviser Henry government exploited such trade to
Kissinger, Washington began to view cement its dominance over its imperial
European economic and security coop- rival Holland, and traders in British
eration as a threat—one Nixon character- cities such as Liverpool reinvested their
ized as “a Frankenstein monster.” Al- gains to fuel the Industrial Revolution.
though this book does not break new Despite the lucrative benefits of slavery,
historiographic ground, it summarizes Parliament abolished slave trading in

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1807 and slavery itself three decades and their British-born offspring vented
later. Some historians attribute these frustration and anger at their exclusion
reforms to the declining profitability of and discrimination. Hordes of tourists,
colonial sugar production and shifts in many of them young, flooded into town.
the economics of empire induced by the The decline of traditional industry
American Revolution. Others stress a blighted neighborhoods and weakened the
powerful abolitionist movement led by established strongholds of the Labour
members of dissenting religious denom- Party. Eventually, an alliance of conserva-
inations, who pioneered modern mass tive small-business owners and suburban
mobilization techniques still employed homeowners began to vote for the Con-
by activist and advocacy groups today. servative Party, ushering in the era of
Richardson points instead to the high Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
costs of sending British troops to
suppress slave revolts in the West
Indies and the desire of British strategic Western Hemisphere
planners to shift their attention and
British resources to cementing mercan- Richard Feinberg
tilist and strategic advantages over
other European colonial powers.
Waterloo Sunrise: London From the Sixties Unleashing Central America’s Growth
to Thatcher Potential
BY JOHN DAVIS. Princeton University BY HULYA ULKU AND GABRIEL
Press, 2022, 600 pp. ZAOURAK. World Bank, 2021, 60 pp.
In this book, a leading urban historian U.S. Strategy for Addressing the Root
argues that London pioneered the Causes of Migration in Central America
changes, good and bad, that have trans- BY THE NATIONAL SECURITY
formed all world cities over the past half COUNCIL. White House, 2021, 20 pp.
century. In 1960, a fine restaurant shocked
T
the city by admitting a single male diner wo policy reports probe the
without a tie. Just a few years later, reasons why so many people leave
multicolored male clothing, the Beatles Central America to come to the
and the Rolling Stones, and loose sexual United States. Both advance reasonably
mores made London “the most swinging well-integrated economic models of
city in the world”—a place seemingly development grounded in recent history.
without any remaining social rules. Both propose comprehensive reforms;
Classic urban problems followed. Smog each package is reasonable in isolation but
and water pollution spread. Concrete utterly daunting when considered in
highways, sterile housing blocks, and combination. The World Bank study
Brutalist office buildings sparked a dismisses the common notion that devel-
preservationist reaction—but too late to opment in Central America has failed;
save much more than Piccadilly Circus rather, for nearly three decades, annual
and Covent Garden. New immigrants economic growth rates have averaged over
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4.5 percent in the region, exports have networks of corruption and impunity”
expanded robustly, per capita incomes by empowering civil society and
have risen, and poverty has fallen. But independent media is a startlingly
future growth will depend on confronting radical, ambitious shift. The United
formidable challenges in those areas in States also advocates the rights of
which the region lags significantly behind: workers to bargain collectively
the quality of education and the produc- (whereas the World Bank prefers fewer
tivity of labor; the infrastructure for restrictions on labor markets). Further
transportation, power, and digital connec- reflecting the intersection of the Biden
tivity; the transparency and efficiency of administration’s foreign policy and its
public institutions and regulatory regimes; domestic agenda, the United States will
and, in El Salvador, Guatemala, and give priority to combating sexual,
Honduras, the ability to bring down the gender-based, and domestic violence in
high rates of violent crime. Addressing Central America. The U.S. paper issues
these shortcomings should help attract this warning to regional governments:
foreign investment and multinationals “Partnership requires a shared commit-
looking to shorten supply chain lead ment to inclusive and transparent
times. Powerful global value chains can democratic governance.”
upgrade the sophistication of the region’s
exported goods (apparel, medical devices, Stories That Make History: Mexico
auto parts) and services (outsourced Through Elena Poniatowska’s Crónicas
business processes, call centers, tourism) BY LYNN STEPHEN. Duke University
and add value to traditional agricultural Press, 2021, 328 pp.
exports. Pragmatic public-private collabo-
rations can help businesses raise labor Through her powerful crónicas—long-
productivity and create well-paying jobs. form works of narrative journalism
The report warns, however, that achieving featuring emotive oral accounts of major
these goals “demands a strong strategic historical events—the 89-year-old Elena
vision, policy coordination and building Poniatowska has crafted a stark vision of
state capacities.” Mexico that pits a corrupt, inept political
The Biden administration aims to elite against a long-suffering repressed
attack the root causes of illegal immi- majority. Stephen, an anthropologist,
gration (even though, in the post- assesses Poniatowska’s vibrant retelling of
pandemic recovery, the U.S. economy the tragic 1968 massacre in Mexico City
faces crippling labor shortages)— of protesting students (in the form of a
broadly identified as soul-crushing book that sold half a million copies), the
poverty, public and private corruption, heroic relief efforts of civil society groups
and violent crime. The U.S. strategy that responded spontaneously to the
paper’s economic assessments and devastating 1985 earthquake in Mexico
prescriptions are generally in line with City, the dramatic 1994 Zapatista indig-
those of the World Bank. But for the enous uprising, the 2006 mass sit-in
U.S. government to propose to liberate protesting alleged electoral fraud, and the
regional governments historically tied mysterious disappearance in 2014 of 43
to Washington from “entrenched students from the town of Ayotzinapa.

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Stephen enriches each chapter with insults of political leaders. Lanza and
extensive interviews with Poniatowska Jackson prioritize freedom of expres-
(whom she describes as a good friend) sion; they denounce Internet censorship
and the writer’s close associates. As a by overtly authoritarian regimes (such as
highly visible public intellectual, Ponia- those in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Vene
towska hasn’t shied away from mixing zuela) and express alarm at pending
journalism with political activism, most intrusive legislation elsewhere in Latin
recently by ardently campaigning for America judged to potentially violate
Mexico’s populist president, Andrés due process. The authors urge the board
Manuel López Obrador. Setting aside to pay more attention to Latin Ameri-
the skepticism characteristic of postmod- can legal codes and civil society experts.
ern social science, Stephen wholeheart- Missing from this legalistic note is a
edly embraces Poniatowska’s engaged and sense of political urgency: that societies
immersive style of reporting and its confront tough tradeoffs between free
contributions to building a “strategic speech and social harm and that if not
emotional political community” of social better moderated, by some combination
justice advocates who identify with the of public and private regulations, social
victims of Mexican history. media may threaten democracy itself.
Content Moderation and Self-Regulation Venezuela’s Authoritarian Allies: The Ties

Mechanisms: The Facebook Oversight That Bind?
Board and Its Implications for Latin EDITED BY CYNTHIA J. ARNSON.
America Wilson Center, 2021, 228 pp.
BY EDISON LANZA AND MATÍAS
JACKSON. Inter-American Dialogue, This edited collection explores the
2021, 31 pp. complex set of connections between
Venezuela and an array of supportive
Facebook (now rebranded as Meta countries, relations that deserve the
Platforms) is at the center of complex nuanced analysis of Arnson and her stellar
debates over industry concentration, list of contributors. Although Cuba
data privacy, disinformation, and hate remains a steadfast ally of the regime of
speech. In response, Facebook has put in Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro,
place an independent review mechanism other erstwhile backers are having their
for its content moderation decisions, a doubts. China has expressed frustration at
body known as the Oversight Board. Venezuela’s economic dysfunction. Russia
Lanza and Jackson report that in many has pulled back a bit, notably withdrawing
of its initial opinions, the board felt the oil company Rosneft from Venezuela
Facebook was overzealous in deleting in 2020. The scope of the collection is
posts and recommended restoring many impressive; other chapters focus on India,
of them. The authors also usefully Iran, and Turkey. But this range will also
review three decisions involving Latin make readers wonder just how similar
America: two from Brazil and one from these country-specific cases actually are.
Colombia that had to do with nudity, Do countries such as India and Turkey
measures to contain covid-19, and really belong in the same framework as
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Cuba? Cuba demonstrates loyalty through net,” they write). But they admit that his
the sustained deepening of core security popularity is limited outside his core
ties, but Indian and Turkish relations with constituency of younger Russians and
Venezuela are more restricted and epi- those who don’t support Putin. The book
sodic. Ties with Turkey depend much on weaves Navalny’s story with sharp
the personal rapport between Maduro insights into the nature of Russia’s
and Turkish President Recep Tayyip authoritarian regime. For curious readers
Erdogan. And with strategic ties between who don’t know much about Russia, this
India and the United States growing book does a sterling job of explaining
closer, the space for cooperation between how corruption secures Putin’s rule
New Delhi and Caracas is narrowing. instead of eroding it, why support for
andrew f. cooper Putin still remains broad (most Russians
are wary of change and see Putin as a
guarantor of stability), and why, accord-
Eastern Europe and Former ing to the authors, Navalny’s current
Soviet Republics imprisonment marks a perilous step for
Russia toward full-fledged dictatorship.
Maria Lipman The Soviet Myth of World War II: Patriotic
Memory and the Russian Question in the
USSR
Navalny: Putin’s Nemesis, Russia’s Future? BY JONATHAN BRUNSTEDT.
BY JAN MAT TI DOLLBAUM, Cambridge University Press, 2021,
MORVAN LALLOUET, AND BEN 323 pp.
NOBLE. Hurst, 2021, 280 pp.
According to Brunstedt’s thoroughly
A
lexei Navalny, Russian President researched book, the Soviet understand-
Vladimir Putin’s chief political ing of World War II, which Russians call
opponent, gained global recog- “the Great Patriotic War,” consisted of
nition after he was poisoned in 2020. He two competing narratives. One story was
returned to Russia after convalescing in “Russocentric,” emphasizing the leading
Germany and was promptly arrested, role of the Russian people in the ethni-
instantly becoming Russia’s most promi- cally diverse Soviet Union and the legacy
nent political prisoner. This is the first of pre-revolutionary Russia’s military
English-language book about Navalny, prowess through the centuries. The other
following his journey from an anticor- was “pan-Soviet” or internationalist,
ruption activist to a street protest glorying in the supranational Soviet
organizer to an anti-Kremlin politician. community and framing the victory over
The authors describe Navalny as Russia’s Nazi Germany as a triumph of the
“second most important politician,” a communist Soviet system. Brunstedt
man of courage, creativity, and wit, describes the uneasy balancing act
endowed with a natural political talent attempted by consecutive Soviet govern-
and a knack for modern communications ments of remembering the victory as an
(“He is who he is because of the Inter- event with a “uniquely Soviet prov-

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enance” without fully abandoning the Favereau seeks to exonerate the Horde,
Russocentric view of the war as the which in her view is too often portrayed
specific triumph of the Russian people. as merely a plundering force. To that end,
Joseph Stalin promoted strongly Russo- she focuses on the Horde’s impact on the
centric views of the war, but even in his course of history, particularly the history
tenure, pan-Soviet conceptions of of Russia. Subordination to the Horde,
victory gained greater currency, thanks Favereau argues, was beneficial for Russia,
in large part to concerns about provoking which at the time was fragmented, mostly
anti-Soviet Russian nationalism. Soviet rural, and agriculturally poor. The Mon-
leader Nikita Khrushchev’s de-Staliniza- gols, according to Favereau, “created for
tion campaign and his introduction of the Russians a type of governance befit-
the doctrine of the Soviet people as a ting their political and economic particu-
“new historical community” worked to larities and cultural sensitivities.” This
suppress Russocentric imagery, or at interpretation sounds strangely colonial
least to dissociate it from the victory. and stands in sharp contrast to the
Under Khrushchev’s successor, Leonid Russian perception of the Horde’s domi-
Brezhnev, the effective expansion of a nation: Russians refer to it as “the Tatar-
purely pan-Soviet war cult was accompa- Mongol yoke” and see this unique episode
nied by the rise of Russian nationalism of long-term vassalage as a time of
among high-ranking Communist Party humiliation, destruction, and decline.
functionaries and the literary elite.
Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union
The Horde: How the Mongols Changed the BY VLADISLAV M. ZUBOK. Yale
World University Press, 2021, 560 pp.
BY MARIE FAVEREAU. Harvard
University Press, 2021, 384 pp. Zubok’s meticulous chronicle covering the
years of Mikhail Gorbachev’s reforms in
Favereau’s history of the Horde, a no- the 1980s and early 1990s passes exception-
madic regime that grew out of the Mon- ally harsh judgment on the last Soviet
gol leader Genghis Khan’s expansion of leader. He lauds Gorbachev’s vision of
his empire in the early thirteenth century global affairs but does not hold back when
and lasted for over two centuries, relies on it comes to criticism: Gorbachev had a
abundant academic literature and trans- poor understanding of the Soviet economy
lated primary sources. The Horde con- and launched ill-conceived economic
trolled a gigantic territory that extended reforms. Zubok condemns Gorbachev for
from Central Asia to eastern Europe and radically weakening the Communist Party
included Russian principalities and apparatus, the Soviet Union’s only effective
Siberia. It excelled at conquest, trade, governing mechanism, which eventually
co-opting local elites, and collecting left him to powerlessly watch his country’s
tribute but was weak in written culture demise. The book offers an impressive
and architecture. Favereau’s narrative is close-up of the hectic political and diplo-
extremely rich in ethnographic detail and matic activities between August 1991, the
descriptions of succession battles, military time of the failed Communist coup, and
campaigns, and internecine warfare. December of that year, when the Soviet
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Union formally ceased to exist. Through- him to a freshly baked croissant. Kalb
out, one is struck by the grand expectations shares what he thought at the time about
that Gorbachev, his allies, and his oppo- some major historical developments, such
nents had of the West, and the United as the early cracks in the Sino-Soviet
States in particular, as a source of political alliance, as well as his experience with the
support, legitimation, and, especially, Soviet bureaucracy. In one episode, hotel
economic assistance. But as Washington officials repeatedly denied Kalb’s request
watched its Cold War adversary plunge for a larger bed: the six-foot, three-inch
into a meltdown, it was no longer willing journalist had to make do with a bed that
to keep extending credit to the Soviet was only five feet, ten inches long. In the
Union and began focusing instead on end, he had his own bed airmailed to
protecting itself from the consequences of Moscow from New Jersey.
the Soviet Union’s collapse.
Assignment Russia: Becoming a Foreign Middle East

Correspondent in the Crucible of the Cold
War Lisa Anderson
BY MARVIN KALB. Brookings
Institution Press, 2021, 352 pp.
In this engaging memoir, Kalb, the A Short History of Islamic Thought

renowned American journalist, begins by BY FITZROY MORRISSEY . Oxford
recalling the youthful advantages that University Press, 2021, 256 pp.
spurred his career: his intellectual gifts,
T
Harvard education, insatiable curiosity he history of Islamic thought is
about the world, and unflagging energy. a well-told tale, by both Muslim
His talents were quickly recognized by and Western scholars. This
some of the major figures of American brief book thus offers little new. But it
journalism, first and foremost by the is a more than serviceable introduction
legendary Edward R. Murrow. Starting for English-speaking readers who want
out in 1958 as a news writer for a local to learn about (or need a refresher on) a
CBS radio station, Kalb quickly reached wide variety of subjects, including the
the “pinnacle of [his] professional aspira- historical antecedents of the modern-
tions” in 1960, when he became CBS day Salafists, the significance of the
News’ Moscow correspondent. For his medieval Islamic scholar Ibn Tay
first assignment in that capacity, Kalb was miyyah, the origins of the Wahhabis,
sent to cover the Paris summit that year, and the basis of the concept of velayat-e
where the Soviet leader Nikita Khru faqih (rule by the jurisprudent), which
shchev was supposed to discuss the the Iranian revolutionary Ruhollah
postwar situation in Berlin with his Khomeini used to justify the clergy’s
British, French, and U.S. counterparts. seizure of political power in Iran.
The summit failed before it started, but Morrissey obviously enjoys the history
Kalb managed to get an exclusive inter- of ideas—in his words, Islamic thought
view with Khrushchev and even to treat is an “intrinsically fascinating” sub-

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ject—including recondite debates about The Daughters of Kobani: A Story of

the nature of God or the relationship Rebellion, Courage, and Justice
between reason and revelation. Many BY GAYLE TZEMACH LEMMON.
knowledgeable readers will quibble with Penguin Press, 2021, 288 pp.
an occasional emphasis or interpreta-
tion, but on the whole, Morrissey does An admiring, almost fawning portrait of
a good job tracing this diverse canon in women who fought to free Kurdish
clear, genial prose. towns in northern Syria from the
control of the so-called Islamic State, or
Queer Palestine and the Empire of Critique ISIS, in the late 2010s, this book is a
BY SA’ED ATSHAN. Stanford useful illustration of the ideological
University Press, 2020, 274 pp. influence of the Kurdish leader Abdul-
lah Ocalan, the founder of the militant
This taxing but ultimately rewarding Kurdistan Workers’ Party and a long-
book offers an impressive treatment of time political prisoner in Turkey. It is
the complex challenges that Palestinian organized around the biographies of
LGBTQ activists face. In a tone both four Syrian Kurdish women as they
knowledgeable and modest, Atshan grow from unruly teenagers into mature,
describes how the gay rights movement seasoned, and effective military com-
must negotiate constant censure and manders who were instrumental in the
faultfinding—an “empire of critique.” liberation not only of the northern city
Palestinian activists must juggle the of Kobani but also of Raqqa and other
competing demands of advocating gay ISIS-controlled areas in Syria. The
rights, anti-imperialism, and Palestinian stories of unseen snipers, booby-trapped
liberation, finding themselves dispar- buildings, nighttime river crossings—
aged as insufficiently committed to one and, more deeply, of self-doubt and
or the other cause. Some critics argue heroism—are well crafted. In portraying
that expressing international LGBTQ these women, Lemmon chooses not to
solidarity is tantamount to complicity delve deeply into the role of Kurdish
in imperialism, or they link Palestinian nationalism, with its strains of utopian
nationalism to the tolerance of ho- socialism and feminism. Instead, she
mophobia. This social movement is thinks these fighters, in their eagerness
certainly not the first to grapple with to take on roles typically forbidden to
divides over strategy and tactics or to women, are simply mounting a rebellion
founder in the “radical purism” of against the strictures of patriarchal
academic disputes, but few books so family life. Like the female guerillas of
eloquently describe the human costs of Colombia’s FARC (Revolutionary Armed
these struggles and, in so doing, suggest Forces of Colombia), however, these
the often overlooked power of honesty women are fighting for a cause, and, like
and generosity in politics. Atshan’s their Colombian sisters, they are likely
work is candid, self-critical, and unex- to find it hard to demobilize.
pectedly inspiring.
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The Middle East Crisis Factory: Tyranny, Bread and Freedom: Egypt’s Revolutionary
Resilience, and Resistance Situation
BY IYAD EL-BAGHDADI AND AHMED BY MONA EL- GHOBASHY. Stanford
GATNASH . Hurst, 2021, 242 pp. University Press, 2021, 392 pp.
This book by two self-described activ- With an unusual command of detail and
ists—a stateless Palestinian now based in an uncommon facility with social
Oslo and a British Libyan citizen—is an science theory, El-Ghobashy recounts
effort “to get through to the average the years of upheaval in Egypt between
Westerner” and insist on a more compli- the 2011 uprising against President
cated story of the Middle East. The Hosni Mubarak and the 2014 election
authors are frustrated by analyses that of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. She argues
attribute the region’s myriad problems to against the twin temptations to uncover
single causes—despotism, say, or Western a definitive cause of the turmoil and to
intervention—and seek solutions in predict an obvious outcome. Instead,
simple remedies, such as elections or, El-Ghobashy stresses the uncertainty of
indeed, Western intervention. Decades those years—the “revolutionary situa-
of broken promises from post-indepen- tion” of her subtitle—and insists on
dence governments laid the groundwork examining the “struggle to rearrange
for the Middle East to be dominated by power within the state” as it happened.
tyranny, terrorism, and foreign influence, She analyzes protests, elections, and,
forces that reinforce and perpetuate one perhaps most surprising, the courts as
another. In the authors’ telling, the 2011 mechanisms of political contestation,
uprisings in Egypt, Iraq, and Syria and emphasizing the volatility of collective
the later rebellions in Algeria, Lebanon, action and the contingency of alliances.
the Palestinian territories, and Sudan During those years, Egyptians of all
were attempts to break this triangular persuasions resorted to litigation, and
stranglehold. They argue that the coun- judges affirmed, struck down, rejected,
terrevolutionary efforts by local autocrats and restored constitutional provisions,
and their international supporters, legislative rules, and government
however formidable they seem now, will decrees with ingenuity and authority.
ultimately prove fruitless. Like many As El-Ghobashy elegantly shows, it is
activists, they are congenital optimists, small wonder that the politics of those
but they are also clear-eyed about the years seemed so confusing and uncer-
obstacles. The book’s scholarly references tain. They were, for actors and observ-
are untidy, and its casual tone is some- ers alike—and she provides much
times jarringly conversational; in discuss- welcome clarity.
ing their recommendations at one point,
the authors ask, “Are we for real?” But
this informality may beguile the wider
audience to which the book is addressed.

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regional stability on which they have

Asia and Pacific relied, however, is now threatened by the
U.S.-Chinese rivalry.
Andrew J. Nathan
When People Want Punishment:
Retributive Justice and the Puzzle of
Authoritarian Popularity
A Region of Regimes: Prosperity and BY LILY L. TSAI. Cambridge
Plunder in the Asia-Pacific University Press, 2021, 278 pp.
BY T. J. PEMPEL. Cornell University
Press, 2021, 252 pp. Many students of China have analyzed
the sources of popular support for the
P
empel comprehensively analyzes authoritarian regime in Beijing. To the
the growth strategies of ten econo- usual list of causes—economic perfor-
mies during the Asian economic mance, propaganda, nationalism, and
miracle that started in the 1960s. Four culture—Tsai adds a new explanation:
patterns emerge. “Developmental anticorruption campaigns, she argues,
regimes” that had competent bureaucra- buttress the regime’s popularity because
cies, homogeneous societies, and U.S. people want to see the enemies of the
support, such as Japan, South Korea, and social order punished. The theory is
Taiwan, were able to build advanced attractive, even if her data leave some
modern economies, although their ambiguity about whether the wish for
growth rates declined in the 1990s due to punishment is driven by a moral convic-
U.S. trade restrictions and growing tion or just a pragmatic preference for
domestic political contention. “Ersatz good government. Beyond China, she
developmental regimes,” such as Indone- shows that authoritarian movements
sia, Malaysia, and Thailand, also enjoyed everywhere feed on the promise to
substantial growth, based mostly on their punish perceived enemies of the social
exploitation of labor, land, and natural good. One wishes Tsai had compared the
resources. But they suffered from weaker weight of this moral outrage with other
bureaucracies and more divided societies factors that previous scholars have linked
and did not develop advanced econo- to regime support. And some readers
mies. Even the “rapacious regimes”— will wonder whether a regime can get
Myanmar, North Korea, and the Philip- just as much public approval by promis-
pines—had occasional growth spurts, but ing to punish external enemies as it gets
they never developed competent state from targeting domestic malefactors.
institutions or skilled workforces. China
combined elements of all three types: Rethinking Chinese Politics
deep industrialization, cheap labor, and BY JOSEPH F EWSMITH. Cambridge
authoritarian institutions. Relations University Press, 2021, 231 pp.
among these places—and between each
of them and the United States—played Fewsmith offers a spirited rebuttal of
an important role in fostering growth for the conventional view that China’s
all but Myanmar and North Korea. The post-Mao regime has avoided power
Recent Books
struggles and maintained control by least of being diminished, if not resolved.

creating institutionalized rules for In Indonesia in 2006, for example, the
policymaking, policy implementation, post-transition government offered the
and leadership succession. He deploys a province of Aceh a strong form of local
deep knowledge of elite political autonomy, which addressed many of the
networks and party organizational demands issued by a pro-independence
dynamics to reconstruct what must have movement there and greatly reduced
happened behind the scenes as the violence. By contrast, Thai politicians
Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping and his during the democratic period in the
successors maneuvered to consolidate 1990s and early years of the next decade
and exercise power, sometimes refused to negotiate with Malay Muslims
following rules but just as often in the south, allowing a low-level
twisting, replacing, or violating them. insurgency to continue there. The three
The stately façade of Chinese politics other case studies lie between these
conceals the “personalization of power, extremes. Violence in the Cordillera
factionalism, . . . [the] arbitrary abuse highlands of the Philippines abated after
of power, corruption, and . . . [a] lack of 1997, when the government granted local
discipline.” Fierce rivalries and wily groups special status as indigenous
maneuvers have left some leaders peoples. Meanwhile, however, the Moro
weakened and have concentrated too uprising in the same country kept flaring
much power in the hands of President up because the government failed to
Xi Jinping. Fewsmith implies that a implement its agreements. In Papua, the
system saddled with this much inconsistent implementation of a 2001
“corrosion and dysfunction” will sooner special autonomy law kept a resistance
or later decay, but he does not forecast going. It is hard for any kind of regime to
when or how. compromise on national unity, but
Bertrand shows that negotiation is a
Democracy and Nationalism in Southeast better way to manage separatist
Asia: From Secessionist Mobilization to challenges than repression.
Conflict Resolution
BY JACQUES BERTRAND. Cambridge Colonial Institutions and Civil War:
University Press, 2021, 301 pp. Indirect Rule and Maoist Insurgency in
India
Do transitions to democracy inflame or BY SHIVAJI MUKHERJEE. Cambridge
calm ethnonationalist movements that University Press, 2021, 415 pp.
took shape under authoritarian regimes?
Bertrand draws together years of research The Maoist, or Naxalite, insurgency has
into five such movements in Southeast flared up and cooled down several times
Asia to show that violence tends to surge over the past half century in scattered
right after the democratic transition, districts of eastern India. Its geographic
when separatists see an opportunity to pattern is difficult to explain solely with
achieve their goals. If the new democratic conventional theories that focus on the
elites offer plausible concessions, distribution of economic and ethnic
however, the conflict has a good chance at grievances and topographical

Recent Books
remoteness. Mukherjee shows that the including climate change, inequality, the
insurgency has flourished in districts plight of migrant workers, and govern-
where the British colonists ruled through ment accountability. In China’s major
traditional princes or the local landlord cities, U.S.-trained professionals now
caste instead of with their own hold leadership positions in academia,
bureaucracy. Exploitation under indirect law, business, the creative arts, and even
rule was harsher and the policing system politics. Li makes the persuasive case
weaker than under direct rule. This left that this middle class can help improve
behind deep inequality, discrimination relations between China and the United
against subordinate castes and tribes, States. He recommends a U.S. strategy
thin infrastructure, and understaffed of engagement with, rather than decou-
administrative institutions—all favorable pling from, China, one that is sensitive
conditions for the revolutionaries to to these dynamics and works toward
recruit support when they launched their pursuing shared goals.
movement in the late 1960s. Mukherjee’s KELLEE TSAI
analysis promises to enrich the
understanding of how historical legacies Flying Blind: Vietnam’s Decision to Join
shape civil conflicts. ASEAN
BY NGUYEN VU TUNG. ISEAS-Yusof
Middle Class Shanghai: Reshaping U.S.- Ishak Institute, 2021, 236 pp.
China Engagement
BY CHENG LI. Brookings Institution Nguyen provides a peek into communist
Press, 2021, 484 pp. Vietnam’s strategic deliberations regard-
ing the Association of Southeast Asian
Based on decades of original research, Nations at the tail end of the Cold War.
this book provides a nuanced counter- Using internal party documents and
point to alarmist caricatures of China high-level interviews, Nguyen, a scholar
and its citizens by exploring the diver- and a diplomat, reveals the twists and
sity and dynamism of Shanghai and its turns leading to Hanoi’s decision to join
large middle class. The city’s progressive ASEAN in 1995. Initially, Vietnamese
outlook and eclectic culture stem from leaders maintained a hostile policy toward
its history as a vital port town teeming the regional association, viewing it first as
with bankers, industrialists, architects, an organization that would advance
and missionaries from around the world. U.S.-style anticommunism in the waning
Its avant-garde political ferment gave years of the United States’ war in Viet-
birth to the revolutionary Chinese Com- nam and later as a vehicle for China’s
munist Party in 1921. Present-day anti-Vietnam campaign following Viet-
Shanghai is a cosmopolitan metropolis nam’s invasion of Cambodia at the end of
with the most skyscrapers, international 1978 and the outbreak of the Sino-
banks, cafés, and art galleries in China. Vietnamese War in 1979. The ideological
Surveys show that the city’s residents underpinnings of Vietnam’s foreign policy
are significantly more concerned than during these conflict-ridden times pre-
the wider population about numerous vented policymakers from seeing ASEAN
political and environmental issues, on its own terms. Peacetime changed
Recent Books
Hanoi’s calculus. Vietnamese leaders from the various forms of hard data and
began to understand ASEAN as a regional ethnographic material gathered in this
community that could support Hanoi’s collection is a fascinating exploration of
bid for rapid economic development. the process of migration, revealing the
Nguyen deftly guides his readers through social networks that enable human
Hanoi’s decision-making, turning once trafficking, what the families left at
opaque dealings transparent. home expect of the migrants, and the
LIEN-HANG T. NGUYEN aspirations of the young migrants as
they voyage into the world.
Africa Arbitrary States: Social Control and

Modern Authoritarianism in Museveni’s
Nicolas van de Walle Uganda
BY REBECCA TAPSCOT T. Oxford
Youth on the Move: Views From Below on University Press, 2021, 256 pp.
Ethiopian International Migration
EDITED BY ASNAKE KEFALE AND Recent studies of authoritarian states
FANA G EBRESENBET. Hurst, 2021, have emphasized the increasingly hybrid
304 pp. nature of such governments, which more
and more eschew violence in favor of
T
he contributors to this fine subtler forms of legal and institutional
collection analyze three distinct manipulation. Tapscott’s fine examination
networks of migration out of of the regime of Ugandan President
Ethiopia: one involving mostly women Yoweri Museveni insists, nonetheless,
who seek employment as domestic that most authoritarian regimes remain
workers in the Gulf countries, another reliant on the threat of violence. In her
of people who try to reach South careful analysis of the country’s security
Africa, and a third heading for Europe. sector, which encompasses the army, the
Ethiopia’s international outmigration police, and more or less sanctioned
numbers are below average by African private local militias and vigilante groups,
standards, but they still involve tens of she notes that the regime has put in place
thousands of individuals every year—a a system of “institutionalized arbitrari-
number that might grow in the wake of ness,” in which the inconsistent interven-
the ongoing civil war. Almost all these tions of the state encourage citizens to
migrants are very young and travel seek out their own solutions to insecu-
without visas. The authors resist the rity—only for the state to then intervene
standard mechanistic view of migration in a powerful but bludgeoning manner
as resulting from “push and pull” that often punishes the citizens. For
economic factors and focus instead on instance, state officials encouraged a town
the beliefs, attitudes, and social connec- to set up a local vigilante group to tamp
tions of the migrants themselves, as down rising crime and violence, but then
they embark on what are typically the police shot members of the group
extremely perilous journeys with highly while on patrol. When the group com-
uncertain outcomes. What emerges plained, the state blamed it for growing

Recent Books
insecurity. The resulting uncertainty over “We Are Not Scared to Die”: Julius
the state’s actual security policies makes Malema and the New Movement for
it harder for citizens to organize against African Liberation
the state. Tapscott’s analysis strikingly BY TIF FANY THAMES COPELAND.
underlines the truism that, in authoritar- Peter Lang, 2021, 238 pp.
ian states, the army and the police serve
the regime, not the public. The career of the South African politician
Julius Malema has won much attention.
Empire and Jihad: The Anglo-Arab Wars Once a firebrand leader of the youth wing
of 1870–1920 of the African National Congress, he has
BY NEIL FAULKNER. Yale University since built his own party and social
Press, 2021, 440 pp. movement, the Economic Freedom
Fighters, as a left-wing populist alterna-
The history of British exploration of tive to the increasingly decrepit anc.
East Africa and southern Africa and the Copeland’s new book has the merit of
eventual British colonial conquest of being the first in at least a decade to
Sudan has already been well covered in discuss Malema’s ideas and approach to
academic and popular works. But politics. Her account is avowedly positive.
Faulkner does provide a new, compre- The book discusses several important
hensive analysis of less familiar but still episodes in Malema’s political life, such as
important military engagements in his break with the anc in 2012 and the
Egypt, Somalia, and Sudan. In addition, electoral emergence of the eff in 2014,
he reframes the history to show how the when it sent 25 representatives to the
economic institution of slavery shaped South African Parliament. One chapter
the local response to European encroach- approvingly describes the eff’s use of
ment in the region. Faulkner claims that social media and humor. Malema has
the predatory colonialism of the late typically been described outside South
nineteenth century pitted the “coolie Africa as an anti-white populist, with few
capitalism of European empires”—how policy ideas other than the expropriation
European powers hunted for new of white farmers’ land and the nationaliza-
markets to help drag their domestic tion of corporate holdings in the country.
economies out of recession—against the Copeland insists that Malema’s political
local “slave systems of Middle Eastern rhetoric has to be understood as perfor-
potentates,” which relied on the substan- mative and humorous, and as a form of
tial profits of the East African slave trade distinctly Black rhetoric, bred by the
and fought back against British attempts country’s history of racism and neglect of
to end it. The book is also highly read- its majority Black population.
able, stuffed with sharp descriptions of
key events and with vivid portrayals of
the (mostly) men behind them.
Recent Books
The Islamic State in Africa: The FOR THE RECORD

Emergence, Evolution, and Future of the A capsule review of an edited volume
Next Jihadist Battlefront on feminist intellectual history in the
BY JASON WARNER WITH RYAN November/December 2021 issue
O’FARRELL, HENI NSAIBIA, AND misidentified the book’s name and
RYAN CUMMINGS. Hurst, 2021, 288 pp. editors. The actual title is Women’s
International Thought: A New History,
Warner and his colleagues provide detailed and it was edited by Patricia Owens
histories of nine affiliates of the so-called and Katharina Rietzler. Women’s Inter-
Islamic State (also known as isis) on the national Thought: Towards a New Canon,
African continent. These well-informed edited by Patricia Owens, Katharina
political histories provide a fascinating Rietzler, Kimberly Hutchings, and
view into the global reach of radical Islam. Sarah C. Dunstan, will be published in
On the African continent, isis affiliates March 2022.∂
can be found in Algeria, Libya, and
Tunisia in North Africa; Mali, Nigeria,
and some of their West African neigh-
bors; Somalia; and, to a lesser extent, the
Democratic Republic of the Congo and
Mozambique. Although isis has been in
decline in the Middle East in recent years,
African militant groups still seek its
imprimatur to gain greater legitimacy and
to win potential financial support, even
though such aid has rarely materialized.
Formal ties between the affiliates and the
core isis organization remain tenuous and
only partially developed, but the book
does suggest that the Internet has proved
to be a remarkably effective way for these
groups to influence one another, allowing
them to share tactics and rhetoric—and to
indulge in their predilection for filming
gruesome acts of violence.
Foreign Affairs (ISSN 00157120), January/February 2022, Volume 101, Number 1. Published six times annually (January, March, May,
July, September, November) at 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065. Print subscriptions: U.S., $54.95; Canada, $66.95; other
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Nuclear Capabilities on the Rise?
Foreign Affairs Brain Trust
We asked dozens of experts whether they agreed or disagreed that the number of states with
nuclear weapons will increase in the next decade. The results are below.
20
10
0
STRONGLY DISAGREE NEUTRAL AGREE STRONGLY
DISAGREE AGREE
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8 AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 6
Rose Gottemoeller Caitlin Talmadge

Steven C. Házy Lecturer, Center for Associate Professor of Security Studies,
International Security and Cooperation at Walsh School of Foreign Service at
Stanford University, and former Deputy Georgetown University
Secretary-General of NATO “Iran is the main country that could expand the
“Since keeping the situation with Iran under nuclear club in ten years, absent a revived and
control is a priority of U.S. policy, as well as that of sustained U.S.-led effort to curtail its nuclear
other nuclear weapons states, including China and program, and Iranian proliferation may lead to
Russia (and the EU), I believe that Iran will not Saudi proliferation. The pressure for South Korea,
acquire nuclear weapons in the next decade. No Japan, and Taiwan to seek nuclear weapons will
one else will have the wherewithal to do so, unless also grow.”
they buy them; I don’t see any sellers out there.”
See the full responses at ForeignAffairs.com/NuclearProliferation

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THE NEW WORLD ORDER OF XI JINPING

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A World Without Trust 22

The End of Cyber-Anarchy? 32

The Case for Cyber-Realism 44

Januar y/Februar y 2022

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Xi Jinping’s New World Order 52

Keeping the Wrong Secrets 85

The Real Crisis of Global Order 103

The Revolution Will Not Be Privatized 119

All Against All 128

India’s Stalled Rise 139

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The social policy problems facing us at the local,

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A New Cuba? 173

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