Predictive Validity The Torrance Tests Creative Thinking

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E.

PAUL TORRANCE

Predictive Validity 01 the Torrance


Tests of Creative Thinking*

A large variety of content, concurrent, and construct validity


data on the Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking have been
available for some time (1962, 1966). Early in the history of
the development of the tests, there were also several short-
range predictive validity studies. The long-range prediction
studies initiated in 1958 and 1959, however, have only recently
become available. In these studies, an attempt was made to
determine whether scores on the creativity tests administered
at various stages of education predict creative behavior in
adult life.
In this paper, the author will review briefly both the major
short-range and long-range predictive validity studies of the
Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking and report the main
findings of a 12-year follow-up of a predictive validity study
with high school students initiated in 1959.
SHORT-RANGE The major short-range predictive validity studies of the
PREDICTION
Torrance tests are summarized in Table 1. In these studies,
the behavior being predicted occurred during a period ranging
from a few days to one year following the administration of
the test of creative thinking. The creative behavior being
predicted ranged from ideas and questions produced in stand-
ardized situations to teaching behavior extending over a period
of several months.

.. Insofar as can be determined, this is one of the first longitudinal


studies of creative behavior conducted.

236 Volume 6 Number 4 Fourth Quarter 1972


The Journal of Creative Behavior

TABLE 1 Summary of short-range (one week to nine months) predictive


validity studies of the Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking.

Investigator Sample Number Creative Behavior


and date Subjects Predicted

Weisberg & Gifted 4th 32 Humor, fantasy


Springer, Graders
1961
Torrance, 2nd - 6th 125 Creative ideas about
1963 Graders science toys and uses
Yamamoto, 5th & 6th 40 Originality of imaginative
1963 Graders stories
MacDonald & Ages 9-12 72 Differential response to
Raths,1964 curriculum tasks
Torrance & H.S.Bus. 12 Provocative classroom
Hansen, Teachers questions
1965
Bentley, Grad. Stud. 75 Subject matter tests of
1966 in Ed. Psy. productive thinking
(r = .53)i inventive level
of creative solutions to
mental health problems
(r = .38)

Hansen, H.S. Bus. 12 Creative classroom


1967 Teachers behavior, questions, etc.
Lehman, HighSchool 21 Creative questions in
1969 Students science
Strom & Teaching success in
Larimore, Elementary inner-city schools; verbal
1970 Teachers fluency (r =
.60); fig.
elabor. (r = .49)

Weisberg- In the Weisberg and Springer (1961) study, 32 intellectually


Springer
Study gifted (high I.Q.) fourth-grade children and their families
participated in an indepth exploration of personality behavior.
Using the median creativity score as the dividing line, Weis-
berg and Springer compared the behavior of the highly
creative children with that of their less creative counterparts.
The criterion tests included the Ask Questions, Guess Causes,
Guess Consequences, Unusual Uses (Tin Cans), and Circles
tests. The children's personal behavior was studied through i

psychiatric interviews, Rorschach Ink Blots, and the Draw-a-


Family Technique. Behavior was rated by the psychiatrists on
the basis of a six-point scale.
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Predictive Validity of the Torrance Tests of Creallve Thinking

The highly creative children were rated significantly higher


than the less creative on: strength of self-image, ease of early
recall, humor, availability of Oedipal anxiety, and uneven ego
development. These results may be interpreted as reflecting
the more creative self-acceptance and greater self-awareness
of the highly creative children. On the Rorschach Ink Blots,
the highly creative children showed a stronger tendency to-
ward unconventional responses, unreal percepts, and fanciful
and imaginative treatment of the blots. They also gave more
human movement and color responses than their less creative
peers. The large number of human-movement responses was
interpreted to reflect an internal locus of evaluation which
allows for greater independence from environmental influ-
ence. The larger number of color responses was seen as
indicating greater readiness to respond emotionally to the
environment. Thus, these creative preadolescents at the same
time behaved more sensitively and more independently than
less creative but equally intelligent children.
Torrance Study In the 1963 study conducted by Torrance, some of the social
01Children's
Groups interaction behaviors of highly creative children were investi-
gated. One class at each grade level (25 in each class) from
second through sixth grade was divided into five groups each.
The children were asked to discover intended and unintended
uses of a box of science toys and to find what principles can
be demonstrated and explained with the toys. Groups were
composed on the basis of scores on a battery of tests of crea-
tive thinking ability: The Ask Questions, Guess Causes, Guess
Consequences, Product Improvement, Unusual Uses, Incom-
plete Figures, and Circles test tasks. One of the five most
creative children of each class was placed in each group, one
of the next five in each group, and so one. The focus of obser-
vation was on the techniques used by the group to control its
most creative member, and his methods of counteraction.
Groups were given 25 minutes to examine and manipulate the
toys in an attempt to discover what can be done with them and
why they work as they do. They were given five minutes in
which to organize their demonstrations and 25 minutes to
present them.
Almost without exception, the highly creative child in each
group made outstanding contributions in spite of obvious
pressure to reduce production and/or originality. Although a
majority (68 per cent) of the most creative members produced
more ideas than any other member of the group, and most of
the others came very close to this distinction, very few of them
(24 per cent) were credited by the other members with making

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The Journal of Creative Behavior

the most valuable contribution to the success of the group. The


counteraction techniques of the most creative members to
group pressures included compliance, counter aggression, in-
domitable persistence, apparent ignoring of criticism, downing,
silence and apathy, inconsistent performance (spurts of pro-
ductivity and originality followed by silence and inactivity),
and filling in the gaps when others faltered.
Yamamoto Study Yamamoto (1963) reported a study in which 20 fifth-graders
of Creative
Writing and 20 sixth-graders were administered a battery of the crea-
tive thinking tests listed above in the Torrance study. The
subjects were then required to write fanciful stores about
animals and people with some unusual characteristic, the Hy-
ing monkey, the lion that will not roar, the woman who will
not talk, the man who cries, and the like. The stories were
evaluated for originality on such criteria as picturesqueness,
vividness, flavor, personal involvement, original solutions or
endings, surprisingness, original setting or plot, humor, in-
vented words or names, and unusual twists in style or content.
Product-moment coefficients of correlation between the com-
posite measures of creativity and originality ratings of the
stories were .49 and .51 for the fourth and fifth-graders
respectively.
MacDonald·Raths MacDonald and Raths (1964), using three levels of crea-
Study of
Curriculum Tasks tivity as measured by the verbal and figural batteries of the
Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking, placed children in cur-
ricular tasks varying in openness of structure, frustration,
passivity, and the like. Their subjects were 72 pupils in grades
four through six. They found that the highly creative children
were more productive on frustrating tasks than were their less
creative peers. The least creative children were less productive
in open tasks, and the most creative reacted less favorably to
closed tasks. Thus, children of varying levels of creative think-
ing ability as assessed by the Torrance Tests of Creative
Thinking reacted differently in predicted ways to different
kinds of curriculum tasks or assignments.
Studies 01 Torrance and Hansen (1965) studied the classroom ques-
Teaching Behavior
tioning behavior of highly creative and less creative basic
business teachers, as identified by a battery of the Torrance
Tests of Creative Thinking (Ask Questions, Guess Causes,
Guess Consequences, Unusual Uses, Product Improvement,
Consequences, and Circles). From the total population of basic
business teachers in a large metropolitan area (N = 29), six
highly creative and six of the least creative teachers were
selected for detailed classroom observations. Each teacher was
observed during five different class sessions over a four-month
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Predictive Validity of the Torrance T.ata of Creative Thinking

period. A verbatim record was made of the questions asked by


each teacher during these five sessions and these were scored
on the Burkhart-Bernheim (1963) measure of Divergent Power
and classified as Divergent-Provocative or Factual-Reproduc-
tive.
As compared with the questions asked by the less creative
teachers, those of the highly creative subjects, were scored
higher on the Divergent Power criteria (mean of 58.83 com-
pared with a mean of 2.67 it-ratio = 2.89, significant at be-
tween the .01 and .02 level). The percentage of divergent
questions asked by the highly creative teachers was 10.9 with
0.8 for the less creative teachers. This difference, too, is signifi-
cant at better than the .01 level.
Hansen (1967) devised and used an observation procedure
adapted from Flanders (1960) to study the behavior of these
two groups of teachers. Two trained observers thoroughly
familiar with the basic business education field recorded ob-
servations of each teacher for each of the five sessions. Com-
pared with the less creative teachers, Hansen found that the
more creative teachers accepted more of their pupils' ideas
and seemed more able to incorporate these ideas into the struc-
ture of the topic being discussed. They also used more thought-
provoking examples which were presented through various
media, such as blackboard demonstrations, anecdotes, and
references to outside readings or bulletin-board displays. The
less creative teachers gave more directions and accepted more
periods of silence and confusion.
Bentley Study of Bentley (1966) studied the creative achievement of a class
Differential
Achievement of 75 graduate students enrolled in a mental health course
taught by Torrance. The predictors were scores on the Miller
Analogies Test, taken as a part of a battery for admission to
candidacy for the master's degree, and a composite score
derived from a 40-minute battery of creative thinking tests
administered at the beginning of the course. The test tasks
included: Ask Questions, Guess Causes, Guess Consequences,
Product Improvement, Unusual Uses, and Circles. Four types
of examination were given at the end of the course: (1) a
rather traditional multiple-choice test requiring recognition of
a correct answer, (2) a completion and short-answer test re-
quiring recall, (3) a test of creative applications requiring
divergent productions, and (4) a decision-making test.
With the 75 subjects for whom Bentley had complete data,
the following product-moment coefficients of correlation were
obtained:
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The Journal of Cre.Uve BehavIor

Miller
Achievement Measure Creativity Analogies
Recognition (Multiple-Choice) .03 .47*
Memory (Short Answer) .11 .41*
Productive Thinking .53* .37*
Evaluation and Judgment .38* .27
(Decision Making)
*Significant at .01IeveI.

In addition to the course examination, students were re-


quired to develop an original idea concerning school mental
health. Judges evaluated these papers according to two sets
of criteria. First, how well the students described the idea,
the process by which it occurred to them, the psychological
rationale behind the idea, how the idea could be tested, and
what consequences the idea might have should it be found
valid. This was called the Convergent Rating. The second
evaluation was based on criteria quite similar to those used by
the United States Patent Office (McPherson, 1963): (1) the
extent to which it is a step forward, (2) its p,ptential usefulness,
(3) the creative intellectual energy required to produce and
develop it, (4) its surprisingness, and (5) its newness. This was
called the Divergent or Inventive Level Rating. The Conver-
gent Rating tended to correlate more highly with the Miller
Analogies Test score than with the Creativity score (.38 and
.16), while the Inventive Level Rating tended to correlate more
highly with the Creativity score than the Miller Analogies
score (.25 and .19).
Lehman Study of Lehman (1969) studied the science questions asked by 21
Science Questions
high school students who had previously been administered
the verbal battery of the Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking.
He elicited questions from the subjects following a standard
science experiment, and classified the questions as concrete,
abstract, or creative. Lehman found significant differences
between the high and low creative groups in frequencies of
the three categories of questions. Further analysis revealed no
significant difference in frequency for the concrete and abstract
questions but there was a significant difference in the fre-
quency of creative questions in favor of the highly creative
students, who also asked a larger number of questions. Using
intelligence test scores as a predictor, however, he found no
diHerence between high and low groups in total number of
questions nor in the number of creative questions.
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Predictive Validity of the Torrance T.... of Cr••tlve Thinking

Strom-Larimore Strom and Larimore (1970) studied teacher success in an


Study of
Teacher Success inner-city project emphasizing creative teaching. They used a
variety of predictor measures, including the verbal and figural
batteries of the Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking. The
study is very complex and cannot be described adequately in
a review of this type. However, several of the measures of
creative thinking proved to be good predictors of teaching
success. For example, the measure of verbal fluency correlated
.60 with the Teacher Educator Composite Rating; and figural
elaboration correlated .49 with Principal Overall Rating.
Irrelevant A review of this type can hardly avoid charges of selective
Short-Range
Studies reporting. A number of investigators have reported validity
studies using course grades and achievement on multiple-
choice tests of school achievement. In some instances the
results have been positive, and in others, negative. In the
opinion of this author, such studies are irrelevant; he sees no
logical reason to expect scores on the Torrance Tests of Crea-
tive Thinking to be related to such measures/ since most of
them do not call the creative thinking abilities into play and
much seems to depend upon the processes through which the
information required by the achievement test has been ac-
quired. For this reason, studies in this category have not been
included in this review. More difficult to ignore are so-called
validity studies based on misconceptions of the tests of crea-
tive thinking, of creative behavior itself. One widely cited
study (Wodtke, 1963) in this category will be used as an
illustration.
Wodtke (1963) administered a battery of the Torrance
Tests of Creative Thinking to approximately 100 to 150 chil-
dren at each grade level from the second through the sixth.
The battery included: Ask Questions, Guess Causes, Guess
Consequences, Product Improvement, Unusual Uses, Conse-
quences/ Picture Construction, Incomplete Figures, and Circles.
Wodtke had hypothesized that these children would differ on
measures of misbehavior, self-initiated talk, and alertness. No
significant differences were found for misbehavior, but a few
marginally significant differences were found for self-initiated
talk and alertness. This author is not surprised at Wodtke/s
results. It is certainly true that some creative children become
behavior problems, especially in classrooms where there is little
or no opportunity to use their creative abilities legitimately.
But this author has observed repeatedly that some of the least
creative children are the most frequent misbehavers, often
imitating and repeating acts surreptitiously initiated by a more
creative peer. These least creative children are more easily
242
The Journal of Creative Behavior

frustrated than their more creative peers and resort to un-


cr.eative kinds of misbehavior to unload tensions. Some of the
low creative children exhibited more self-initiated talk than
their more creative peers, perhaps because the more creative
children are more severely suppressed by teachers and peers on
account of the unusualness of their ideas. This kind of treat-
ment makes it remarkable that the results concerning alertness
are as positive as Wodtke found. It is assumed, of course, that
the teachers in Wodtke's study varied greatly in the extent to
which they facilitated creative behavior - an assumption sup-
ported by other data reported by Wodtke (1963).
LONG·RANGE Thus far, five long-range prediction studies have been re-
PREDICTION
ported, three by Torrance and his associates and two by other
investigators. The results of these five studies are summarized
in Table 2.

TABLE 2 Summary of long-range predictive validity studies of the


Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking.

Investigator Length Behavior r of


and date Sample No. Study Predicted Valid.

Torrance, Tan, Junior Elem. 114 8yrs. Creative teach. .62*


& Allman, Ed. Majors behavior .57"
1970
Torrance, 12th Graders 46 7yrs. Highest Creat.
1969 Achievement .50*
Quantity of
Creative Ach. .46"
Creativeness of
Aspirations .51*
Cropley, 7th Graders 111 Syrs. Creative Ach.
1971 Out of School .51*
Outstanding
Witt, 1971 2-4 Graders 16 6 yrs. Achievements in
(Sel.) creative arts
and science
Torrance, 7-12 Graders 236 12 yrs. Quantity and
1971 Quality of
Creative
Achievements .51*

NOTE: - .. Significant at better than the .01 level

Teacher Behavior The earliest long-range prediction study was initiated in


Eight Years Later
October, 1958, with 325 elementary education majors at the
University of Minnesota as the subjects. The test tasks in-

243
Predictive Validity of the Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking

cluded: Unusual Uses, Impossibilities, Consequences, Seeing


Problems, and Product Improvement.
In March, 1966, follow-up data were obtained from 114 of
the subjects still in elementary education (Torrance, Tan &
Allman, 1970). The measure of verbal originality differen-
tiated the subjects on 69 creative behaviors at the .05 level or
better. A composite index of creative teaching behavior was
devised and found to correlate .62 with the originality score
and .57 with the total creativity score. A synthesis of the
results suggests that teacher trainees identified as highly
original in their thinking during their junior year appear to
live more fully, to be more involved in their teaching, and to
behave more creatively in the classroom than their less original
counterparts. More than their less creative peers, they appear
to continue learning, both independently and in formal courses.
Cropley Cropley (1971) and his associates conducted a five-year
Five-Year Study
predictive validity study at Regina, Canada, in which they
administered six of the test tasks from the Torrance Tests of
Creative Thinking. The subjects were 111 seventh-grade stu-
dents originally tested in 1964 and retested five years later.
The follow-up data included information about achievement
in art, drama, literature, and music during the intervening five
years. A canonical correlation of .51 was obtained between the
combined creativity test scores and the criterion data obtained
five years later. For boys, this canonical correlation was .52,
and for girls, .46.
Witt Study of Witt (1971) in 1965, on the basis of the Torrance Tests of
Selected
Dlsedvantaged Creative Thinking and his own Favorite Group Games test,
Children identified as highly creative 16 black disadvantaged children
from the second, third, and fourth grades of a ghetto school in
New Haven, Connecticut. Twelve of these 16 youngsters have
continued in an out-of-school program designed to give them
a chance to develop their creative positives. Of the 12 children,
10 have revealed superior creative talent and have achieved at
a high level in one or more art forms as evidenced by awards
received by the children in music, art, drama, and other com-
petition in city-wide contests, science and arts camps, and the
like, as well as scholarships in excellent private schools and
under outstanding teachers in music, art, and other fields.
Three of these 10 children have ~so demonstrated superior
verbal creativity in science and other areas as indicated by
similar honors.
The major long-range prediction study (Torrance, 1969ab,
1971) will be presented in greater detail in the next section.

244
The Journal of Creative Behavior

MAJOR The major long-range prediction study of the Torrance Tests


LONG·RANGE
STUDY of Creative Thinking was initiated in September, 1959. At that
time, the total enrollment of the University of Minnesota High
General
Procedures School (grades 7-12) were administered the Torrance Tests
of Creative Thinking. A majority of the subjects were sons
and daughters of professional and business people. At this
time, however, the enrollment also included a large block of
students from a less affluent neighborhood lacking a school
building. The mean intelligence quotient of the total group of
students as assessed by the Lorge-Thorndike test was 118,
and the mean percentile rank of the Iowa Tests of Educational
Development was 84 on national norms.
The test battery consisted of the following tasks: Ask Ques-
tions, Guess Causes, Guess Consequences, Product Improve-
ment, Unusual Use of an Improved Product, Unusual Use of a
Common Object, and Circles. The creativity tests were scored
in 1959 according to the scoring guides then in use for the
following variables: fluency (number of relevant responses),
flexibility (variety of categories of responses), inventive level
(following the criteria of the United States Patent Office),
elaboration (amount of detail used to describe how ideas would
be executed). In 1961, all tests were rescored for originality
according to a guide developed at that time. The interscorer
reliability of each of the scorers in all cases was in excess of
.90 for all variables.
Near the end of the senior year, the subjects were admin-
istered a five-item peer nominations questionnaire. Subjects
were asked to make three nominations on the basis of each
of the following criteria:
1. Who in your class comes up with the most ideas?
2. Who have the most original or unusual ideas?
3. If the situation changed or if a solution to a problem
wouldn't work, who in your class would be the first ones
to find a new way of meeting the problem?
4. Who in your class does the most inventing and develop-
ing of new ideas, gadgets, and the like?
5. Who in your class are best at thinking of all the details
involved in working out a new idea and thinking of all
of the consequences?
Seven-Year The first follow-up of this study was with the class of 1960
Follow-Up
and was executed in 1966, using a questionnaire designed by
Erickson (1966) and Torrance (1969ab). The instrument re-
quested information concerning the subject's marital status,
number of children, occupation, spouse's occupation, highest
level of education attained, undergraduate and graduate col-
245
Predlcllve Validity of the Torl1lnce T••t. of ere.llve Thinking

leges attended, honors, employment experiences, post-high


school creative achievements, a description of most creative
achievement, and a statement of aspirations.
Even though many of the 44 subjects who had returned
their questionnaires were still in graduate school or military
service in 1966 when Erickson analyzed the data, a consider-
able amount of creative activity was reported. Erickson ob-
tained an index of creative achievement by adding the number
of achievements reported in all categories. The following
product-moments of correlation were obtained between this
index and the measures of creative thinking derived from the
tests administered in 1959:
Fluency .27 (Significant at .05 level)
Flexibility .24 (Significant between .05 and .10)
Originality .17 (Not significant)
Elaboration .16 (Not significant)
Tetrachoric correlations successfully predicted participation
in the following activities at better than the .05 level; sub-
scribed to professional magazine or journal; learned new
language; wrote a poem, story, song, or play; wrote a book
(unpublished); changed religious affiliation, handled in-service
education for co-workers; suggested modifications in job sit-
uation that were adopted; received research grant for original
proposal; had scientific paper published; elected or appointed
to a student office; gave a public music recital; performed on
radio or television; developed an original experimental design.
Torrance (1969ab) later reanalyzed the data using responses
received by 46 of the original 69 subjects and revising the
creative achievement index by eliminating items regarded as
not necessarily creative achievements. The items eliminated in-
cluded: subscribed to professional magazine or journal, learned
new language, gave a public speech, took up a new hobby,
changed religious affiliation, elected or appointed to a student
office, joined professional club or organization. The major
achievements included in the new index are as follows:
Poems, stories, songs written
Poems, stories, songs published
Books written
Books published
Radio and television scripts or performances
Original research designs developed
Philosophy of life changed
In-service training for co-workers created
Original changes in work situation suggested

248
The Journal of Creative Behavior

Research grants received


Scientific papers published in professional journal
Business enterprises initiated
Patentable devices invented
Literary awards or prizes received for creative writing,
musical composition, art, etc.
An index of quality of creative achievement was obtained
by having five judges (all advanced students of creativity)
rate on a lO-point scale the originality of the most creative
achievements. An index of quantity of creative behavior was
obtained by assigning a weight of one for each achievement
attained once or twice and a weight of two for each achieve-
ment attained three or more times, and then adding the
weights. The five judges also rated the degree of originality
necessary to realize each subject's vocational aspiration.
Reasonably high agreement among the judges was obtained,
as indicated by the mean interscorer reliability coefficient of
.65 for highest creative achievement and .69 for creativeness
of aspirations.
Using the three new indexes of creative achievement, Tor-
rance (1969ab) obtained the results shown in Table 3. It will

TABLE 3 Product-moment coefficients of correlation between creativity


predictors established in 1959 and criterion variables estab-
lished in 1966.

Criterion Variables

Creat. Creat. Creat.


Predictors Qual. Quan. Motit}.

Intelligence Test .37· .22 .32


High School Achievement .20 .09 .IS
Peer Nominations on
Creative Criteria .13 .13 .18
Fluency (TICf) .39· .44· .34
Flexibilitt (TTCf) .48· .44· .46·
Originality (TTCf) .43· .40· .42·
Elaboration (TICf) .32 .37· .25

It Coefficient of correlation is significant at the .01 level

be noted that only one of the nine coefficients of correlation


for the non-creativity variables is statistically significant at the
.01 level, while nine of the 12 coefficients of correlation for the
creativity predictors reach this level of significance. If we lower
247
Predlcllve Validity of the Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking

the level of significance to the .05 level, two of the coefficients


of correlation for the non-creativity predictors and 11 for the
creativity predictors are significant. Flexibility and Originality
appear to be the best predictors with Fluency, Elaboration,
Intelligence, High School Achievement, and Peer Nominations
following in that order.
By combining the Fluency, Flexibility, Originality, and
Elaboration scores through stepwise regression, multiple corre-
lation coefficients of .50 (with Highest Creative Achievement),
.46 (with Quantity of Creative Achievements), and .51 (with
Creativeness of Aspirations) were obtained.
Twelve-Yeaf Procedure. A 12-year follow-up of the 1959 University
Follow-Up
(Minnesota) High School population (N = 392) was con-
ducted in 1971. At the time the data reported here were
analyzed, completed questionnaires had been obtained from
117 of the women and 119 of the men. The questionnaire was
similar to the one used in 1966 and requested information con-
cerning marital status, number of children, occupation,
spouse's occupation, highest level of education attained, under-
graduate colleges and graduate school attended, honors, em-
ployment experiences, post-high school creative achievements
and activities, descriptions of three most creative post-high
school achievements, and a statement of aspirations. Generally,
subjects supplied rather complete data, rich in information
about what has been happening to these young people who
were now between the ages of 25 and 31.
A measure of quantity of creative achievements was obtained
by adding the number of creative achievements checked and/or
listed by each subject. The checklist consisted of those items
used by Torrance in his analysis of the 1966 data. The measure
of quality of highest creative achievements was based on the
ratings of five expert judges (mature researchers and doctoral
candidates with concentrations on creative studies) of the de-
scriptions of the three most creative achievements reported by
each subject. The judges were instructed to rate these data on
a IO-point scale in terms of the level of creativeness reflected
by the achievements described. The measure of creativeness of
aspirations was based on similar ratings of the statements of
each subject concerning what he would most like to do in the
future, assuming the necessary talent, training, and oppor-
tunity. The mean reliability coefficient of the five judges
was .91.
Results. Combining the scores on the creativity test battery
to predict the combined creativity criteria, a canonical corre-
lation of .51 was obtained for the full sample. A canonical cor-
248
The Journal of Creative Behavior

relation of .59 was obtained for men alone, and one of .46 for
women alone. While the predictive validity of the tests is sig-
nificant at better than the 1 per cent level for both men and
women, the finding gives some credence to the belief that the
creative achievements of women are less predictable than those
of men.
TABLE 4 Correlation of selected creativity variable and intelligence
quotient with adult creativity criteria for males and females.

Predictors
Males (N = 119) Females (N = 117)
Quantity Quality Aspir. Quantity Quality Aspir.

Fluency .31" .29" .27" .28.... .33" .27"


Flexibility .32'" .31'" .27" .25" .32" .23"
Inventive
level .42" .43" .42" .28" .41" .32"
Elaboration .27" .34" .37" .27" .35" .29"
Originality .41" .45" .45" .37" .40" .30"
I. Q. .24" •40" .37" .06 .29" .18....

..Significant at the .01 level


.... Significant at the .05 level

Table 4 provides more detailed information concerning the


predictive validity of the specific creativity variables along
with the coefficients of correlation of the criteria of creative
achievement and Lorge-Thorndike I.Q. It will be noted that
all of the coeffcients of correlation involving the creativity
variables as predictors are significant at better than the 1 per
cent level of confidence. In general, however, those of the
women are a shade lower than those for the men. This trend
is accentuated for intelligence quotient as a predictor of cre-
ative achievement, especially for quantity of creative achieve-
ment. The creativity measures are consistentlybetter predictors
of the women's adult creative achievement than is the measure
of intelligence.
Although there is little relationship between grade level at
the time the creativity tests were administered (r's .03, 00, =
and -.06 for Quantity, Quality, and Aspiration respectively),
the relationship between grade level and the measure of orig-
inality (the single best predictor) is moderate (r =
.16). Thus,
combining results across grade level is not likely to influence
the results as much as one might think. (One might expect the
seventh graders, now about 25 years old, compared with the
12th graders, now about 31 years old, would have done less

249
Predlcl/ve Validity of the Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking

well on the predictor tests and have fewer and less impressive
achievements at this date, and that these factors would in-
fluence the results reported above.)

TABLE 5 Correlation of originality with adult creativity criteria by class.


"
Coefficients of Correlation
Class Number
Quantity Quality Aspiration
12 51 .43'" .50'" .45·
11 47 .20 .33·· .42'"
10 42 .39'" .49'" .58'"
9 31 .69'" .66· .61'"
8 31 .25 .22 .14
7 34 .29 .41· .22

Note: • Significant at .01 level


•• Significant at '0.5 level

Table 5 presents a grade by grade set of results for original-


ityas a predictor. It will be noted that the results for the ninth,
10th, 11th, and 12th grades are significant at about the same
level as those for the total sample. A variety of rather complex
factors contributes to the relatively poor success in predicting
the achievements of the seventh and eighth-graders. First, the
seventh-graders were experiencing a slump in creative func-
tioning at the time the tests were administered; about 20 of
them had been tested as sixth-graders and their scores were
lower in the seventh than in the sixth grade. Perhaps more
important, however, is the fact that a large proportion of the
seventh and eighth-graders are now either in military service
or still in college. A goodly number of them have undergone a
period of rebellion and exploration and have only recently re-
gained an achievement orientation to life. Thus they have not
attended college or sought success through other routes.
ConclusIon Although the subjects of this 12-year predictive validity
study were fairly advantaged and most of them had ample
opportunities and freedom to develop their creative abilities,
the results do indicate that creativity tests administered during
the high school years can predict real-life adult creative achieve-
ments. It is doubtful that such favorable results would be
found for a population severely limited in opportunity and/or
freedom. The subjects of this study now range in age from 25
to 31 years, and we do not know whether these results wUl
continue to hold up at the end of another 12 years. An exam-
ination of the clues provided by the detailed responses of the
250
The Journal of CreaUye BehaYlor

subjects, however, suggests that the creative achievement dif-


ferences between the more creative and and less creative sub-
jects are likely to widen as time elapses.
No attempt has been made yet to determine whether creativ-
ity tests administered to elementary school children will predict
adult creative achievements. Such studies were initiated in 1958
and 1959, and follow-up is planned for 1975. There will also
be further follow-ups of the high-school study described here.
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tional Research, 1966 59, 269-272.
BURKHART, R. C. &; BERNHEIM, G. Object question test manual.
University Park, PA: Department of Art Education Research, Pennsyl-
vania State University, 1963, (Mimeographed).
CROPLEY, A. J. Some Canadian creativity research. Journal of Research
and Development in Education, 1971, 4(3), 113-115.
ERICKSON, G. The predictive validity of a battery of creative thinking
tests and peer nominations among University of Minnesota high school
seniors seven years later. Master's research paper, University of
Minnesota, 1966.
FLANDERS, N. A. Interaction analysis in the classroom: a manual for
observers. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan, 1960, (Mimeo-
graphed).
HANSEN, E. A comparison of the teaching behavior of creative and less
creative basic business teachers. Doctoral dissertation, University of
Minnesota, 1967. (University Microfilms Order No. 67-14, 614; Disser-
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LEHMAN, R. A. A study of the effects of creativity and intelligence on
pupils' questions in science. Research paper, Nova University, Ft.
Lauderdale, Fl, 1969.
MacDONALD, J. B. &; RATHS, J. D. Should we group by creative
abilities? Elementary School Journal, 1964, 65, 137-142.
McPHERSON, J. H. A proposal for establishing ultimate critera for
measuring creative output. In C. W. Taylor &; F. Barron (eds.), Scienti-
fic creativity: its recognition and development. NYC: Wiley, 1964,
24-29.
STROM, R. D. & lARIMORE, D. Predicting teacher success: the inner
city. Columbus, OH: College of Education, Ohio State University,,1970.
TORRANCE, E. P. Guiding creative talent. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Pren-
tice,1962.
TORRANCE, E. P. Education and the creative potential. Minneapolis:
University of Minnesota Press, 1963.
TORRANCE, E. P. Torrance tests of creative thinking: Norms-technical
manual. (research edition) Princeton, NJ: Personnel Press, 1966.
TORRANCE, E. P. Prediction of adult creative achievement among high
school seniors. Gifted Child Quarterly, 1969{a), 13, 71-81.
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TORRANCE, E. P;--& HANSEN, E. The question-asking behavioe of
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pencil test. PSJlchological Reports, 1965, 17, 815-818.

211
Predictive Validity of the Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking

TORRANCE, E. P., TAN, C. A. & ALLMAN, T. Verbal originality and


teacher behavior: a predictive validity study. Journal of Teacher
Education, 1970,21, 335-341.
WEISBERG, P. S. & SPRINGER, K. J. Environmental factors in creative
function. Archives of General Psychiatry, 1961, 5, 554-564.
WITT, G. The life enrichment activity program: a continuing program
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ment in Education, 1971, 4(3), 14-22.
WODTKE, K. H. A study of the reliability and validity of creativity
tests at the elementary school level. Doctoral dissertation, University
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YAMAMOTO, K. Creative writing and school environment. School and
Society, 1963, 91, 307-308.

E. Paul Torrance, Head, Department of Educational Psychology.


Address: The University of Georgia, College of Education, Athens,
Georgia 30601.

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