2227 words

BIOLOGY INTERNAL ASSESSMENT

Forest adaptation to climate change in Belarus

RESEARCH QUESTION
How the climate of Belarus has changed over the past 50 years?
How climate change affects the forest and how the forest adapts to these changes in
Belarus?

1. INTRODUCTION
Throughout almost the entire twentieth century, short-term periods of warming on
the territory of Belarus were replaced by periods of cold snaps that were close in
magnitude and duration. Long-term and intense warming began in 1989 with a sharp rise in
winter temperatures and continues to this day. The average annual air temperature for
1989-2020 exceeded the climatic norm by 1.3 ºС.
Today, changes in the climate system are occurring rapidly and affect the interests
of each person, therefore society is forced to adequately respond to a rapidly changing
situation (mainly to adapt to it), using the entire far from small arsenal of currently available
means.
Climate change alters the frequency and intensity of forest disturbances, including
wildfires, storms, insect outbreaks, and the occurrence of invasive species.

2. PERSONAL ENGAGEMENT
Firstly, I am a citizen of Belarus and an inhabitant of planet Earth. The problems of
my planet and my country, especially environmental ones, are of great concern to me.
Secondly, Belarus is a country of forests. Today Belarus is among the top ten forest
states in Europe.
As of January 1, 2020, the forest fund of the Republic of Belarus is almost 10 million
hectares, the forest cover of the country is about 40%. And at the same time, forestry is
one of the most vulnerable to climate change in the Belarus.
In this connection, this topic is very interesting for me to research.

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3. BACKGROUND
I was lucky to talk with the leading researcher of the Institute of Experimental Botany
of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, candidate of biological sciences Mr.
Maxim Ermokhin. I also got acquainted with his first report in which he touched upon many
modern problems of the Belarusian forest and analyzed the possible reasons for the
changes that we are seeing today.
Changes in climatic conditions, directly or indirectly (through changes in the level of
groundwater, fires, reproduction of forest pests and aggravation of the development of
diseases) affect the state of forest vegetation and lead to changes in the composition and
structure of tree plantations.

3.1 CHANGES IN THE COMPOSITION OF BELARUSIAN FOREST

On the territory of Belarus, there are borders of three forest-forming species -
spruce, hornbeam, gray alder. When the climate warms, these boundaries move
northward.

Fig.1: Geobotanical zoning of Belarus

Scientists predict the border of the sections may shift by 100-200 km.
Global changes will not greatly affect such a species as pine (in the south, the
growth may increase up to 6%, and in the north up to 10%).
With spruce, everything is much more radical: the entire southwestern part falls into
a very unfavorable climatic zone. A decrease in the number of spruces is possible up to
25%. In case there are more frequent droughts, this breed will simply disappear. Mature
forests will no longer form.

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Fig.2: Change in the current growth of spruce and pine forests in Belarus by 2050
compared to the period 1961-1990 under the most probable climate change scenario

3.2 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST DEATH IN BELARUS

The death of a forest from the impact

of various factors is shown in figure.
Most of the forest dies under the
influence of unfavorable weather conditions
and forest fires that occur from climate
change.
Due to climate change, we can expect
an increase in the area of potentially
dangerous forests in the future, an increase in the fire hazard in forests and peat bogs, as
well as an increase in the likelihood of the spread of forest pests and diseases, which will
adversely affect forestry.
The likelihood of fires is directly
influenced by climatic factors such as
higher temperatures, decreased rainfall
and longer dry periods. However, with an
unfavorable trend in the change of these
indicators, Belarus is characterized by a
low level of forest fire and a constant
decrease in their number.

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 The greatest danger and damage to the forest is caused by soil fires. They arise
from prolonged abnormal heat.
The increase in the area of droughts associated with climate change may further
threaten biodiversity.
One of the factors affecting the productivity of forest stands is the length of the
growing season. Its change associated with warming in the winter months, on the one
hand, contributes to an increase in forest products. However, forests adapt very slowly to
abrupt changes in growing conditions. Therefore, sharp changes in temperature from year
to year in the initial growing season in plants have a negative effect on their resistance to
external influences.
And a change in the heat supply of the growing season affects the territorial
distribution of forests. In the south of Belarus, a new region with a higher heat supply has
already appeared, which has not previously been detected in the country.
In addition, the early start of the growing season as a result of climate change
dramatically increases the likelihood and harmfulness of late spring frosts, which can have
a significant impact on the current growth of stands, as well as damage flowers and forest
berries.
As a result of climate change, the likelihood of drought during the growing season
also increases, which with a simultaneous decrease in the groundwater level can be
expected to further reduce the area of spruce. Over the past 15-20 years, massive drying
up of spruce forests has already been identified in Belarus for this reason.
Thus, climate change has already begun to have an adverse impact on the forest
ecosystems of Belarus and its further change can cause serious economic losses and
threaten biodiversity.

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4. PROCEDURE
1. On the website of the Ministry of Nature in the archives, find temperature data for
three Belarusian cities (southern, central and northern regions) from 1972 to the present.
Enter the data into three different Excel tables. The city of Verhnedvinsk from the
northern region, the city of Maryina Gorka from the central region, the city of Vasilevichi
from the southern region.
On the basis of this data, create a graph of temperature changes in the above
Belarusian cities. After that draw a trendline through each of the three graphs to see an
overall direction of the data.
2. Take the initial data for building a map with new borders of agro-climatic zones from
the State Climatic Cadaster (1973-2020).

5. METHODOLOGY
This research was compiled on the basis of a review of research materials
conducted in Belarus in the field of climate change and adaptation to climate change. To
write it, the official Republican data of the Hydrometeorological Center, the National
Statistical Committee, the Ministry of Forestry, the Ministry of Agriculture and Food, the
Ministry of Health and other sources were used.
For the Suggested Improvement, the legislation on the problem of climate change in
Belarus, the measures necessary for adaptation to climate change, as well as the existing
level of awareness of the problem among representatives of civil society in Belarus were
analyzed.
Long-term observations and systematic studies over decades are needed to
establish this information reliably. Therefore, in most cases, these changes are assessed
by indirect signs. For example, the distribution of certain species 50 years ago and now is
compared.
1. MS Excel Program
2. Adobe Photoshop
3. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of
Belarus Data (available online) and URL in the bibliography.
4. Data of the state climatic cadaster, URL in the bibliography.
5. All information was translated from Russian and Belarusian languages.

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6. DATA COLLECTION
Data Table 1: Number of hot days (with a temperature of 25°C and above) 1972-2020
years in Belarus

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Data Table 2: Changing the borders of agro-climatic zones of Belarus

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7. DATA PRESENTATION
Graph 1: Showing increase of the number of hot days (with a temperature of 25°C
and above) 1972-2020 years in Belarus

Graph 2: Showing the change in the borders of agro-climatic zones of Belarus

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Chart 1: Building a map with new borders of agro-climatic zones

1 2

Average annual temperature sum above 10°C

1. Borders of agro-climatic areas before 1989

2. Borders of agro-climatic areas today

8. CONCLUSION
In the graph, tradelines in each region show a constant rise in the number of hot
days with a maximum air temperature of ≥25°C. Accordingly, the average annual air
temperature increases from 1972 to the present day in northern, central and southern
regions simultaneously.
Analysis of the data shows that the warm period, when the air temperature is higher
or equal to zero, significantly increases in the country.
As a result of warming, the borders of agro-climatic zones in Belarus changed: the
Northern agro-climatic zone disintegrated and decreased, and a new, warmer agro-climatic
zone was formed in the south of Belarus.
The zones on the map of Belarus were indicated schematically, not with very high
accuracy. However, the main goal was to show the movement and change of the borders.
According to many scientists, global warming will continue in the coming decades, so a
further northward shift of the borders of agro-climatic zones with higher temperatures can
be expected. Therefore, in order to make management decisions, it is necessary to closely
monitor the dynamics of the process of changing the borders of agro-climatic zones.
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 In the future, in connection with the predicted climate change, the borders of agro-
climatic zones should be updated at least once a decade.
To summarize, the increase in heat supply in Belarus generally contributes to the
expansion and improvement of the forest structure. However, with a significant increase in
air temperature and the absence of precipitation, forests in the southern and eastern
regions of the Republic of Belarus are faced with the problem of droughts.
Thus, climate warming for the forests of Belarus is very controversial and causes
both negative and positive consequences. In this case, since there is a change of the
existing way of life, it is necessary to adapt to the two kinds of consequences adhering to
the following adaptation measures:
1. Optimization of the composition of tree species, considering forest conditions.
2. Leveling the age structure of the forest through the regulation of forest use, and
thinning of the forest.
3. Implementation of measures for reforestation and afforestation.
4. Reclamation of disturbed lands unsuitable for use in agriculture, and their
subsequent afforestation.
5. Plantation of fast-growing tree species
6. Using of rational methods of felling and more advanced technologies of logging
processes
7. Improvement of the system of protection of forest plantations from fires and pests.
8. Increasing the resistance of forests to fires (formation of fire-resistant areas by
creating plantations of mixed forest cultures, timely forestry work, clearing felling sites from
felling residues, etc.).
9. Maintenance of existing and restoration of non-functioning reclamation systems.
10. Restoration of drained peatlands by re-waterlogging.
11. Conservation and protection of biological diversity.

Due to the fact that forest ecosystems are slow to respond to climate change, the
shift in forest distribution areas will lag behind today's relatively rapid climatic changes.
Therefore, it is very important to foresee in advance possible options for adaptation to
climate change in order to prevent both economic and environmental damage to the
forestry sector.

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 Additionally, the problem in Belarus today is that our forestry never plans to
conserve forests for a longer period.
If we are talking about production forests and an ordinary forestry enterprise, then
no questions arise. But when it comes to the national park, forests of the first group, where
final felling is prohibited, Belarusians should plan their economy for at least 300-400 years
and think about what they will contribute to.
Yes, this is a long stage, and a human lives much less, but this is the only way we
can increase stability and prevent adverse changes.
Today we have reason to be proud of Belarusian forests. In Belarus, unique,
undisturbed natural areas with a limited forest use regime are still found, and there are
much more of them than in Western Europe. On the whole, the situation with forest
management in my country is much better than in the adjacent regions. Belarus is one of
the few European countries where the forested area has almost doubled and reached its
maximum value in a century.
Such positive changes are due to both the correct adaptation measures and the
natural processes of forest growth.

9. BIBLIOGRAPHY

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1. National report of the republic of Belarus in accordance with the commitments under
the unframe convention on climate change
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/92104765_Belarus-NC7-1-
AI_BLR_NC7.pdf
2. Report "State of the forests of Belarus and Bialowieza Forest - trends, problems and
solutions" by M. Ermokhin, candidate of biological sciences NASB
https://wildlife.by/science/articles/Sostoyanie%20lesov%20Belarusi%3A
%20tendentsii%2C%20problemi%20i%20puti%20resheniya/
3. National report "Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Belarus” for the
Eastern Forum on Climate Change, 2014
https://minpriroda.gov.by/uploads/files/Otsenka-ujazvimosti-Belarusi-Rus.pdf
4. Development of a national strategy for adaptation of agriculture to climate change in
the Republic of Belarus
https://minpriroda.gov.by/uploads/files/Agroklimaticheskoe-zonirovanie-Respubliki-
Belarus.pdf
5. https://www.wildlife.by/ - portal about the wild nature of Belarus.
6. https://www.belstu.by/ - Belarusian State Technological University.
7. https://minpriroda.gov.by/ - Ministry of Forestry of the Republic of Belarus.
8. https://pravo.by/ - The National Legal Internet Portal of the Republic of Belarus.
9. https://nasb.gov.by/ - The National Academy of Sciences of Belarus.
10. Public climatic cadastral map of the Republic of Belarus
http://map.nca.by/map.html

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