Political Sociology:

Introduction and Methodology

Stephen Fisher
stephen.fisher@sociology.ox.ac.uk
http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/polsoc
Contents

I Why have this lecture?

I What is political sociology?
I Intellectual background
I Course topics
I Aims of academic research in the area
I Causation
I Generalization
I Methodology
I Scientific method
I Temporal Ordering
I Experiments
I Criticising research
I Tips for the course
I Role of Lectures
Why have this lecture?

I Some aren’t sure at this stage whether this is something they

want to do.
I Not so obvious what political sociology is compared with
other subjects
I Helpful to have a brief tour of the topics to inform choice for
tutorials
I Introduction to the style of social enquiry, complementary to
the Q-Step Political Analysis courses
I Particular issues with how to engage with a mixture of
different kinds of study with different data and methodology
I General study advice
What is political sociology?
Grand definitions:
I Who gets what, when and how (i.e. power)
I How political outcomes affect and are affected by social
circumstances.
I e.g. how class and inequality affect demand for welfare states
and how different kinds of welfare states have different impacts
on inequality and class
More informal definitions:
I It’s about people and how they relate to politics
I What people think about politics, what policies they want,
what makes them participate and at what level, what divides or
unites them etc.
I Things that affect political preferences, attitudes, values and
behaviour in society at large.
I But also how that goes on to affect policy and other political
outcomes, including regime type.
I While Comparative Government focuses on the political
institutions (the sausage machines of politics), Political
Sociology focuses on the social circumstances in which those
institutions work (i.e. what goes into the sausage machine).
Intellectual background

I Usually Political Sociology is a branch of sociology, but this

course is mostly political science but also has sociology, and
to a lesser extent psychology, economics and anthropology.
I It is mainly Political Behaviour and part of a broader
‘Comparative Politics’ field.
I Sociological tradition treats politics as part of broader society
and social system
I e.g. Weber pointed to modernization increasing ‘rationality’ in
society which affected the structure of the state
I For Marx the political sphere is part a broader class conflict
I Marx, Weber and Durkheim often considered founding fathers
I These traditions strongest in social movements, nationalism,
revolutions, state formation and elites topics.
Topics in the Course I

Public Opinion related

I Political culture and social capital:
I Political culture is about how people think about the state and
politics
I Social capital is combination of norms, networks and trust
from social interaction
I Some argue that democracy is better when supported by a
civic political culture with lots of bridging social capital.
I But social capital and trust in politicians and democratic
institutions are supposedly in decline in rich democracies while
some autocracies with little sense of civic culture are
apparently thriving.
I So does this bode badly for democracy?
Topics in the Course II

I Social attitudes and value change:

I Why have people become more liberal on some issues but not
others over recent decades?
I Why have concerns about climate change fluctuated and
become politically polarized even while the evidence for
man-made climate change has increased?
I Why do societies swing back and forth from left to right in
their policy preferences overtime?
Topics in the Course III

I Media:
I Do the media succeed at informing the public and inspiring
people to participate in politics?
I Or do the media dumb down and encourage voters to focus on
leaders and looks instead of policies?
I Can the media control their own content and influence voters,
or are they compelled to follow their customers?
I How has the internet and social media changed political
communications and created polarising echo chambers?
I How influential is fake news?
Topics in the Course IV

Political Action and Participation:

I Electoral turnout:
I Why are some kinds of people more likely to vote than others?
I Why is voter turnout in decline in many rich democracies?
I What can be done to increase turnout?

I Social movements and protest participation:

I Why do some kinds of people participate but not others?
I How rational is participation given that there’s little chance of
making a difference individually?
I Why are some campaign groups better than others at getting
members and attention for their causes?
I How much does success depend on opportunities, resources,
leadership quality, framing, strategy etc?
Topics in the Course V

I Civil wars and revolutions:

I When do people try to overthrow the regime and when do they
succeed?
I To what extent are violent rebellions caused by economic
hardship, ethnic division or state fragility?
I Is ethnic conflict due to inequalities between ethnic groups or
elites mobilising on ethnic lines?
I How well can we predict state failure and civil war?
Topics in the Course VI

Social Cleavages
I Ethnicity: Ethnic minorities:
I Why do ethnic minorities vote overwhelmingly for parties of
the left when many have socially conservative attitudes?
I In what ways do immigrants and ethnic minorities integrate
into democracies, and what barriers are there to integration?
I Are ethnic minority candidates discriminated against in
elections?
I Ethnicity: Attitudes to minorities, and populist right parties:
I Why are some people more hostile to immigration than others?
I Why have radical or populist right parties, leaders and causes
(including Brexit and Trump) done so well recently?
Topics in the Course VII

I Religion:
I Are rich countries becoming more secular?
I How powerful is religion as a driving force for social attitudes
and political behaviour?
I Is there a fundamental tension between Islam and democracy?

I Gender:
I Are there really substantial differences in the political
preferences of men and women?
I Why are older women more right wing than men of the same
age but younger women more left-wing than younger men?
I What difference does it make if there are more women MPs?
Topics in the Course VIII

I Nationalism:
I What is it and where does it come from?
I Why do some people think of their nationality in ethnic terms
while others think on more civic lines?
I Is national pride declining in favour of a supra-national identity
in Europe?
I What strengthens nationalists movements and what are their
consequences?

I Class:
I Why has class voting declined?
I Do different social classes increasingly want the same policies?
I Or are the parties increasingly offering very similar policies on
taxation and spending?
I Do people even think of themselves as members of social
classes?
Topics in the Course IX

Class issues more broadly

I Political elites:
I Does democracy ensure power is evenly divided or is there a
political elite that operates as a clique and is extremely
powerful?
I Are elected politicians beholden to business elites?
I How can social scientists identify who has power and how they
use it when you cannot trust those in authority to report
accurately?
I Do elites exercise power overtly or more subtly through agenda
setting and ideological persuasion?
Topics in the Course X

I Public support for welfare provision:

I Why do some countries have more generous welfare provision
than others?
I Do ethnically divided societies have more limited welfare states
because richer ethnic groups do not want to see their money
redistributed to poorer ones?
I How much has (support for) welfare provision been eroded by
globalisation?
I Why do some richer people support redistribution when others
do not?
Aims: Search for Causation I

I Main aim of most of the research is to try to say something

about the causes of the outcome in question, e.g.
I Does interpersonal trust in society lead to better democracy?
I Does economic growth reduce the chances of state failure?
I Some of the ’why’ questions demand answers about causes,
e.g.
I Why has turnout declined? roughly equates to Which of the
factors that are known to cause turnout have changed (or
which causal effects have changed) in a way that is linked to
the observed turnout decline?
I It is interesting and important to know some of the social
facts in the area (e.g. turnout has declined but petition
signing has increased over time etc.)
I But ultimately we want to understand the causal processes
that drive these phenomena.
Aims: Search for Causation II

I Need causal theories

I These are positive rather than normative
I i.e. about what does happen rather than what should happen
I they posit causal relationships
I Need to be clear on terms and social scientific concepts, e.g.
social capital, political culture
I Still plenty of room for conceptual analysis!
I Important still to know historical narratives, country context
and event specific issues
I Often helpful for theory building and scrutinising the
quantitative research
I E.g. helps avoid crass application of theories to inappropriate
context
Looking for general tendencies I

I Social science typically tries to identify general rather than

specific causal relationships
I e.g. What causes revolutions? Rather than, what were the
causes of the French revolution?
I Suggests general theories and hypotheses
I e.g. Fiscal crises of the state lead to revolutions
I Not laws but tendencies that are not too specific to particular
times and places.
I Need variance on both the explanatory and dependent
variables
I e.g. we learn about causes of revolutions by finding out what
separates cases with revolutions from those without
I Comparative politics aims to replace proper names with
variables.
Looking for general tendencies II

I Search for general tendencies among large populations leads

to preference for large data sets and quantitative analyses
rather than qualitative studies of specific phenomenon
I But large scale quantitative analysis often involves crude
operationalisation of variables
I Qualitative studies usually very useful for understanding the
range of causal mechanisms in detail
Putting the Science in Social Science

I What (supposedly) makes it science is the attempt to use

deductive logic with theory generating hypotheses, which are
then tested systematically with data.
I Causal theory → Hypothesis → Empirical test → Evaluation
of the hypothesis → Evaluation of the causal theory →
Scientific knowledge
I Can apply this process with qualitative data (see King,
Keohane and Verba, 1994)
I But since much of the literature is quantitative and it is
important to have a rough understanding of the very basics of
the statistics, focus of the rest of this methodological
discussion on issues with quantitative work
I Much (social) science inductive, not deductive, and some
research is helpfully abductive
I Key process in science is systematic method and scrutiny
Experiments

I Randomized control trials are ideal for identifying causal

effects
I If the allocation of the explanatory variable x is truly random,
then any correlation with y must be due to x
I Some even say, there is no causation without manipulation.
I Problems
I Lab experiments artificial (e.g. getting people to watch news
clips to assess media effects)
I Field experiments (e.g. randomly sending get-out-the-vote
leaflets) are great but limited scope
I Occasionally there are natural experiments or contexts where
regression discontinuity designs apply
I Have to use more mundane observational studies for most
questions
Temporal Ordering

I Correlation at a single point in time often inadequate to be

clear on causal direction.
I x → y or x ← y or x ↔ y
I Temporal ordering often makes causal arguments more
convincing
I e.g. if current levels of democracy are linked with prior levels
of social capital, then we are more confident that social capital
affects democracy
I This doesn’t always work
I There are cases where people anticipate future events and
adjust behaviour accordingly
I Christmas cards do not cause Christmas
How to criticise quantitative research I

I Your undergraduate courses don’t provide adequate training

to thoroughly understand the more sophisticated statistical
methods. So,
I Understand broadly what is going on
I Take the technical details on trust if needs be
I Assess four causal hurdles (from Kellstedt and Whitten)
1. Is there a credible causal mechanism that connects X to Y ?
2. Can we rule out the possibility that Y could cause X?
3. Is there covariation between X and Y ?
I i.e. is the regression coefficient significant
4. Have we controlled for all confounding variables (Z) that
might make the association between X and Y spurious?
How to criticise quantitative research II
Example where you could question the causal direction:
Does having ethnic minority friends lead you to perceive less
threat from immigrants or the other way round?

(McLaren, British Social Attitudes, 2003)

How to criticise quantitative research III

I Try to compare and contrast results from different studies

I Which are experiments, or convincing causal inference designs?
I Which are cross-sectional, and which are over time?
I Which are looking at change within individuals over time
(panel data) or change in one society at large over time (time
series), or some other kinds of design?
I When were the studies conducted?
I E.g. there may have been just ‘trendless fluctuations’ in class
voting up to the late 1980s but later studies are clear that
there has been a decline.
I Try to figure out why results differ not just choose which you
like best
I Most important and profound not the same thing as most
rigorous in causal identification.
How to criticise quantitative research IV

I We are looking for tendencies, not hard and fast rules.

I Interesting to note the outliers, but more important to know
the dominant pattern
I “Secularization theory doesn’t work for the USA.” is not a
devastating critique.
I Exceptions do not prove the rule!
I Consider how important your critique is
I Say clearly whether you think it is devastating or more minor
I Try to be reasonable
I Often possible to spin some story for reverse causation, but if
you don’t really believe it don’t bother.
Tips for studying the course
I Do the topics that you’re interested
I None are more important or more ‘core’ than the others
I Do them in any order you like
I Read broadly!
I Aim to look at everything on the list to get some idea of the
main contributions of each
I At least read all the abstracts
I Use bibliographic software, e.g. Papers, Mendeley
I Be aware of the normative issues and social facts, but focus
on the questions of causal relationships
I The usual stuff about answering the question set etc.
I both for the tutorial and the exam
I past exam questions and reading list tell you what kinds of
questions could come up in the exam
I Be prepared to cite research in the exam,
I Around 5 items per essay was common, but more when online
I Harvard style citations easiest and recommended
Role of the course lectures

I Aim of the lectures is to

I provide an overview and some background for the topic
I review the main points from the readings
I help explain the most difficult material
I point out things that the literature is shy about
I Slides at http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/polsoc
I But they are not designed for stand-alone use.
I Come to all the lectures, not just the ones you are doing for
tutorials:
I Gives you a better feel for the style of enquiry
I There are often links between topics
I In the exam you are not restricted to just using the literature
on one topic to answer a given question
I Understanding other topics gives you some perspective on
what you are focusing on.