Action Note: Champion Iron LTD
Action Note: Champion Iron LTD
Action Note: Champion Iron LTD
8
CIA-T: Price
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Company Profile
Champion Iron is an iron-ore-producing company
7 7
based in Montreal, Quebec. The company's
6 6 flagship asset is its wholly owned Bloom Lake
mine, located in the Labrador Trough region of
5 5
northern Quebec.
4 4
3 3
Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22
Please see the final pages of this document for important disclosure information. Page 1 of 10
January 27, 2022
Details
Phase 1 operations generated $71mm in FCF in the quarter, defined as operating
cash flows before working capital changes less sustaining capex. FCF after total capex
before working capital was negative $45mm.
A total of $87mm was spent on the Phase 2 expansion and a further $29mm was
committed for advances, mill improvements, and capitalized interest. The company
ended the quarter in a very strong financial position, with working capital of $333mm,
including cash of $512mm.
Exhibit 1. Q3/FY22 Results (December 31, 2021 Quarter)
Actual TDS Est.
Fiscal Period Q3/21 Q4/21 Q1/22 Q2/22 Q3/22 Q3/22 Var. q/q y/y
Calendar Period End Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Dec-21 % % %
Ore Mined, Mt 5.2 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.0 11% -3% 6%
Strip Ratio 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 16% 6% 3%
Waste Mined, Mt 5.0 3.8 4.7 5.3 5.4 4.2 28% 3% 10%
Mill Feed, Mt 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.7 5.2 4.9 5% -9% -1%
Head Grade, % 29.7% 30.7% 29.6% 29.1% 30.6% 30.0% 2% 5% 3%
Fe Recovery, % 83.6% 82.6% 82.9% 83.3% 83.9% 83.3% 1% 1% 0%
Fe Concentrate Grade, % 66.4% 66.5% 66.3% 66.3% 66.2% 66.2% 0% 0% 0%
Total Iron Ore Production, Mt 1.92 2.01 1.94 2.09 2.01 1.85 9% -4% 5%
Total Iron Ore Sales, Mt 1.89 1.97 1.97 1.95 1.83 1.83 0% -6% -3%
Average Realized Price, 66% Fe, C$/t, FOB $174 $201 $276 $169 $138 $128 8% -18% -21%
Total Cash Costs, 66% Fe, C$/t, FOB $56 $54 $61 $56 $60 $59 0% 6% 6%
Average Realized Margin, 66% Fe, C$/t, FOB $109 $136 $204 $96 $62 $54 15% -35% -43%
Total AISC, 66% Fe, FOB, C$/t $65 $65 $73 $74 $76 $74 3% 3% 17%
Financials, C$mm
Revenues $330 $397 $545 $331 $253 $235 8% -24% -23%
Operating Costs $70 $65 $79 $71 $70 $71 -1% -1% 0%
Transportation Costs $36 $42 $42 $40 $40 $38 7% 1% 11%
Operating Earnings $212 $277 $415 $211 $133 $117 13% -37% -38%
Cash Flow From Operating Activities b/f WC $142 $169 $248 $129 93 $69 35% -28% -34%
Cash Flow From Operating Activities $185 $235 ($13) $374 $106 $9 1051% -72% -43%
Capital Expenditures $50 $73 $110 $154 $138 $120 15% -10% 177%
Cash Flow from Investing Activities ($95) ($97) ($164) ($169) ($169) ($120) nm nm nm
Cash Flow from Financing Activities $4 ($15) ($35) ($109) $41 $0 nm nm 1058%
Free Cash Flow before W/C changes $92 $96 $98 ($25) ($45) ($51) nm nm nm
Balance Sheet, C$mm
Cash & Restricted Cash $534 $653 $437 $536 $512 $425 21% -4% -4%
Working Capital $446 $514 $535 $385 $333 $329 1% -14% -25%
Long Term Debt $242 $215 $226 $232 $248 $227 9% 7% 2%
Net Debt ($265) ($422) ($226) ($303) ($241) ($192) nm nm nm
Key Metrics
EPS Reported (C$/sh.) $0.25 $0.32 $0.44 $0.23 $0.13 $0.12 15% -41% -47%
EPS (ADJUSTED, Fully Diluted) (C$/sh.) $0.24 $0.30 $0.43 $0.22 $0.13 $0.11 19% -40% -46%
Attributable EBITDA, C$mm $212 $276 $406 $200 $122 $112 9% -39% -42%
CFPS, Before WC Changes (100% basis) $0.30 $0.34 $0.49 $0.25 $0.18 $0.14 35% -28% -38%
Source: Company, TD Securities Inc.
Outlook
Iron ore markets start the year on a strong footing — Iron ore prices (65%-Fe, CFR
China) are up 20% YTD, averaging US$158/t through January 26, which is trending
above our calendar Q1 quarterly forecast of US$130/t. The better-than-expected pricing
has been driven by solid demand from China, where steel producer margins remain
positive, combined with some restocking ahead of the Chinese New Year and Beijing
Page 2 of 10
January 27, 2022
Olympics. On the supply side, production from the ‘big-four’ (Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, and
Fortescue) remains subdued, with Vale reporting supply disruptions due to weather-
related events in mid-January.
We are forecasting a modest 1% increase in Chinese steel demand in 2022, with the
rest-of-the-world up 3% y/y. On the supply side, we are forecasting only 1% growth in
seaborne trade, resulting in slight deficits for iron ore again this year.
We are modelling calendar 2022 and 2023 high-grade iron-ore prices of US$130/t and
US$105/t, respectively. We are maintaining our long-term high-grade iron-ore price
forecast of US$90/t starting in 2024.
$250
$200
US$/t
$150
$100
$50
$0
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22
Page 3 of 10
January 27, 2022
$35
$15 $600
$50
$10 $500
$0
$400
$5
-$50 $300
$0
$200
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Mar-16
May-16
Mar-17
May-17
Mar-18
May-18
Mar-19
May-19
Mar-20
May-20
Mar-21
May-21
-$100 -$5
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
China Steel Profitability Index (US$/mt) 62% Fe - 58% Fe Spread (US$/mt)
Exhibit 4. Brazil-China Shipping Rates (US$/t) (Left); Iron Ore Stockpiles (Right)
Australia Brazil India Other Total Chinese Stockpiles
$50 18,000
$45 16,000
$40 14,000
Iron Ore Stockpiles (x 10,000st)
$35
12,000
$30
10,000
$25
8,000
$20
6,000
$15
4,000
$10
2,000
Córrego do Feijão
$5 Samarco Dam Dam Disaster COVID-19
Disaster 0
Outbreak
$0
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
Page 4 of 10
January 27, 2022
CAD/USD Forex
0.74 $110 $432 $753 $1,075 $1,397 $1,719 0.74 22.2x 5.6x 3.2x 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x
0.76 $88 $401 $715 $1,028 $1,341 $1,655 0.76 27.6x 6.1x 3.4x 2.4x 1.8x 1.5x
0.78 $67 $373 $678 $983 $1,289 $1,594 0.78 36.1x 6.5x 3.6x 2.5x 1.9x 1.5x
0.80 $48 $346 $643 $941 $1,239 $1,536 0.80 50.8x 7.0x 3.8x 2.6x 2.0x 1.6x
0.82 $29 $320 $610 $901 $1,191 $1,481 0.82 83.2x 7.6x 4.0x 2.7x 2.0x 1.6x
0.84 $12 $295 $579 $862 $1,146 $1,429 0.84 210.9x 8.2x 4.2x 2.8x 2.1x 1.7x
Post Phase 2 Expansion to 15Mtpa (FY2024 Apr1/23 - March 31/24)
FY2024 EBITDA (C$mm) at Spot 65% Fe Fines, CFR, US$/t FY2024 EV/EBITDA at Spot 65% Fe Fines, CFR. US$/t
###### $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180
CAD/USD Forex
CAD/USD Forex
0.74 $286 $701 $1,117 $1,533 $1,949 $2,365 0.74 8.5x 3.5x 2.2x 1.6x 1.2x 1.0x
0.76 $255 $660 $1,065 $1,470 $1,875 $2,280 0.76 9.5x 3.7x 2.3x 1.7x 1.3x 1.1x
0.78 $227 $621 $1,016 $1,410 $1,805 $2,199 0.78 10.7x 3.9x 2.4x 1.7x 1.3x 1.1x
0.80 $200 $584 $969 $1,354 $1,738 $2,123 0.80 12.2x 4.2x 2.5x 1.8x 1.4x 1.1x
0.82 $174 $549 $924 $1,300 $1,675 $2,050 0.82 14.0x 4.4x 2.6x 1.9x 1.5x 1.2x
0.84 $149 $516 $882 $1,248 $1,615 $1,981 0.84 16.3x 4.7x 2.8x 1.9x 1.5x 1.2x
* We assume Phase 2 begins in May 2022. We are modeling 11.9Mt of sales in FY2023
Source: Company, TD Securities Inc.
18.0 $180
16.0 $160
14.0 $140
12.0 $120
10.0 $100
8.0 $80
6.0 $60
4.0 $40
2.0 $20
0.0 $0
FY2019A FY2020A FY2021A FY2022E FY2023E FY2024E FY2025E
Bloom Lake Phase (100%) Total AISC, 66% Fe CFR China (US$/t) Price of 66% Fe CFR China (US$/t)
Valuation
Champion is trading at 0.94x our base-case 8%NAVPS estimate of $5.46/share
(previously $5.50/share), which represents a premium to our mid-cap coverage universe
trading at 0.75x, but a discount to our large-cap coverage universe trading at 1.05x.
Page 5 of 10
January 27, 2022
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January 27, 2022
Page 7 of 10
Action Note
Equity Research January 27, 2022
1. TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC or an affiliated company has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the last 12 months with respect to the subject
company.
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the subject company.
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research analyst has discretion or control.
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16. This security has Limited voting shares.
BUY - 76.5%
25% 17.16%
0.59% 0.59%
0%
BUY HOLD NOT REDUCE
RATED
^ Percentage of subject companies under each rating category: BUY (covering ACTION LIST BUY,
BUY and SPECULATIVE BUY ratings), HOLD, and REDUCE (covering TENDER and REDUCE
ratings) and NOT RATED (covering UNDER REVIEW, SUSPENDED, and NOT RATED).
* Percentage of subject companies within each of the four categories (BUY, HOLD, REDUCE, and
NOT RATED) for which TD Securities Inc. has provided investment banking services within the last
12 months.
Page 8 of 10
Action Note
Equity Research January 27, 2022
HOLD: The stock's total return is expected to be between 0% and 10%, (with higher thresholds for less liquid, more risky securities) over the next 12 months.
TENDER: Investors are advised to tender their shares to a specific offer for the company's securities or to support a proposed combination reflecting our view that a superior offer
is not forthcoming.
REDUCE: The stock's total return is expected to be negative over the next 12 months.
SUSPENDED: Due to evolving circumstances, we can no longer generate what we consider a defensible target price and rating at the current time.
UNDER REVIEW: Our rating is under review pending additional information and/or analysis. The prior rating should not be relied on.
NOT RATED: We do not currently produce a recommendation and a target price on this security.
Risk ratings are relative to other companies in the TD Securities Equity Research coverage universe. In order of increasing risk, our risk ratings are LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH, and
SPECULATIVE. These risk ratings are not meant to be compared to ratings on other securities and asset classes outside our Equity Research coverage universe.
Overall Risk Rating in order of increasing risk: Low (6.6% of coverage universe), Medium (42.3%), High (43.2%), Speculative (7.8%)
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Action Note
Equity Research January 27, 2022
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