10.

1177/1523422303254628
Advances
Chermack in
et Developing
al. / CRITICAL
Human
UNCERTAINTIES
Resources CONFRONTING HRD ARTICLE August 2003

Critical Uncertainties
Confronting Human
Resource Development
Thomas J. Chermack
Susan A. Lynham
Wendy E. A. Ruona

The problem and the solution. Human resource develop-

ment (HRD) is influenced by trends in other disciplines, demo-
graphics, politics, technology, and a number of other domains. To
gain insight about the future, those trends can be assessed and
sorted into categories. The intent of this article is to present the
trends that are deemed the most uncertain and have the highest
potential impact on the discipline of HRD. Furthermore, this
article examines what we can learn from considering the impli-
cations of such trends, how our thinking might change from what
we learn, and what decisions we might make differently as a
result of having considered them.

Keywords: critical uncertainties; challenges; trends

The discipline of human resource development (HRD) is growing. Whereas

some have speculated about the growth of HRD and the implications that
accompany the speculation (Brockbank, 1999; Streumer, Van der Klink, &
Van de Brink, 1999), eventually, responsible members of a discipline must
consider the trends with the potential to alter the nature of that discipline in
profound ways. A useful means for considering such trends includes a focus
on factors that are truly uncertain.
Uncertainty can be defined as that which is “unknown, unreliable,
changeable or erratic” (Oxford English Dictionary, 2001). Foundational
views of strategy suggest that an essence of strategic processes is optimizing
the fit between an organization and its surrounding environment
(Mintzberg, 1978; Porter, 1981; Stevenson, 1976). In unchanging environ-
ments, the optimization of organizational/environmental fit has been the
This article was subjected to a two-tier blind review process that did not involve the authors who
are currently members of the editorial board.
Advances in Developing Human Resources Vol. 5, No. 3 August 2003 257-271
DOI: 10.1177/1523422303254628
Copyright 2003 Sage Publications

Downloaded from adh.sagepub.com at SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF on November 6, 2016

258 Advances in Developing Human Resources August 2003

basis of strategy in organizations. But how often are unchanging environ-

ments encountered? The problem then becomes clear: Uncertainty in the
environment is important because it is a significant source of our inability to
make predictions about the future.
Although considering uncertainty does not allow predictions of the
future, it does allow the formulation of plausible circumstances, any one or
combination of which might evolve to become the future. The goal of exam-
ining uncertain factors is to expand thinking about what is possible to mini-
mize the likelihood that the future will be a complete surprise. Therefore,
the intent of this article is to examine uncertainties confronting HRD.
This article adopts Schwartz’ (1991) terminology and focuses on “criti-
cal uncertainties.” According to Schwartz’ perspective, the term critical
implies uncertainties that have the potential to significantly alter the nature
of HRD and the work its researchers and practitioners perform.
The purpose of this article is therefore to present issues of critical uncer-
tainty in HRD. More specifically, this article provides a snapshot of the
forces confronting HRD that are most unknown, most unreliable, and most
erratic. These are the forces most likely to affect HRD in the next 15 to 20
years in ways that may significantly alter the discipline.

Method
The analysis used to move from general trends to critical uncertainties is
based on Hodgson’s (1992) systems thinking process, which generally con-
sists of (a) generating a large number of trends through literature review, (b)
grouping like trends into “driving forces,” (c) ranking the driving forces in a
matrix according to uncertainty and impact, and finally (d) analyzing the
critical uncertainties. Forces ranking high on uncertainty and high on
impact are considered the critical uncertainties (Hodgson, 1992; Schwartz,
1991). The method is depicted in Figure 1.
An analysis of recent publications in HRD revealed 120 trends (see the
appendix). The trends were the result of a literature review of HRD schol-
arly and practice-oriented publications using search engines at a large uni-
versity in the United States and keywords “HRD,” “trends,” and “future.”
Thirty-six articles were reviewed from nine different publications as well as
a special report on future trends from a well-respected futurist organization.
Each article was chosen based on its explicit identification of trends, which
were then added to the list provided in the appendix. The vast majority of
articles reviewed were from the United States and the United Kingdom,
which is acknowledged as a limitation to this study.
According to Hodgson’s (1992) process, each of the 120 trends was writ-
ten on a paper hexagon. The hexagons were grouped by linking similar topic

Downloaded from adh.sagepub.com at SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF on November 6, 2016

 Chermack et al. / CRITIC AL UNCERTAINTIES CONFRONTING HRD 259

120 trends from scholarly and practitioner-oriented HRD sources

Driving forces (themes that emerged from grouped trends)

Matrix of uncertainty vs. impact

Critical uncertainties—Forces high in uncertainty and

impact

FIGURE 1: Method
Source: Based on Hodgson (1992).

areas and mapping them on a wall. Once grouped, themes emerged from the
groupings and were categorized as the driving forces.
The driving forces were then ranked on a matrix with uncertainty on one
axis and impact on the other (see Figure 2). The process of plotting the driv-
ing force hexagons on the matrix was completed by three HRD profession-
als (the authors) and then checked for logical consistency and refined by a
fourth individual who was unrelated to this project. The fourth individual
was an associate professor at a large university in the United States.

Assessing Uncertainty in HRD

The centerpiece of this article is a matrix of the driving forces ranked by

their uncertainty and potential impact (see Figure 2). Forces of low impact
and low uncertainty are not of concern, nor are forces of low impact and high
uncertainty. Thus, the matrix shows us where to focus our attention.
Forces of high impact and low uncertainty are called predetermined ele-
ments (Schwartz, 1991), as they are things that we know about and can count
on with some level of certainty. For example, the aging population in devel-
oped countries is something that has great implications for the future of
human resources in organizations, but HRD professionals can plan for those
implications because of the predictable nature of the trend.
Forces that ranked high on impact and high on uncertainty are the key
uncertainties (Hodgson, 1992; Schwartz, 1991). Critical uncertainties are
forces that we may only speculate about—forces that present themselves
erratically or without any sense of stable direction or impact (Schwartz,

Downloaded from adh.sagepub.com at SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF on November 6, 2016

260 Advances in Developing Human Resources August 2003

HIGH
• What is the next era? Imagination? Creativity?…
• HRD’s emerging and growing contribution to strategy, competitive
advantage, and performance through human development
• Specialization of HR to contribute directly to performance
• HRD’s new focus: Strategic development & attraction & retention
of “expertise elite”
• People & expertise are increasingly part of the performance
equation
• Emerging work view of generations X & dotcom: Success at any
cost
• Talent shortage & rising competition for the “expertise elite”
• Growing impact of consumers on business performance
• Increased international exposure includes risk of terrorist attack
UNCERTAINTY

• Rising consumption of oil while supply and other sources keep •

Challenge of the org. to emulate innovation of entrepreneurship &
prices low start-up
• Growth and aging of the world’s population •
Knowledge is synonymous with employability & intellectual capital:
• Unions are losing their power continuous, life long learning
• Gov’t regulations continue to take managers time and effort • The “middle class” of organizations is disappearing
• • Birth of a new paradigm of change & learning: integrated & global
Rising consumption of oil while supply and other sources keep
prices low • Definition of work has become fluid, ever-changing and without
• Growing concern for the environment yet conflicting views of boundaries
human tread • Employee individualism vs teams becoming the norm
• Substantial shifts in values, work ethic and lifestyles
• Organizations need to become structurally “aero dynamic” and agile
• The job market has gone global
• Increased occurrence of diverse work teams and need for diversity
training
LOW IMPACT HIGH

FIGURE 2: Uncertainty Versus Impact—Driving Forces in Human Resource Development

1991). Although we may be able to identify the area of concern, we have lit-
tle way of effectively predicting the specific things that will happen in that
area. For example, to what extent will technological innovations require the
workforce to reskill? Are contextual knowledge and imagination the only
value we as humans will have over technology and computers?
The matrix should help prompt thinking about what things might become
fundamentally different in the future. Helpful questions to ask might be
What has been overlooked? What is assumed to remain true in the future?
What would happen if something heavily relied on for its consistency was
fundamentally transformed overnight?

Limitations of the Method

Four people completed the analysis presented in this article and this is
acknowledged as an important limitation of the conclusions drawn. That is,
rankings of uncertainty and impact were based on the perceptions of those
involved with the project. Furthermore, the nature of systems thinking sug-
gests that the ideas presented as a result of this exercise are based on the
mental models and assumptions of those who participated in the exercise.
Therefore, this article offers one view of the critical uncertainties confront-

Downloaded from adh.sagepub.com at SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF on November 6, 2016

 Chermack et al. / CRITIC AL UNCERTAINTIES CONFRONTING HRD 261

ing HRD. Also acknowledged as a limitation is the fact that the majority of
the literature from which the trends were extracted were from North Ameri-
can and European publication sources.

The Critical Uncertainties

According to the analysis described, the critical uncertainties confronting
HRD, in alphabetical order, are the following:

• Competition for the “expertise elite”

• Globalization
• Locus of Control—Organizations or individuals
• Marketability of knowledge
• Next age
• Technological explosion

Competition for the Expertise Elite

Expertise elite refers to those individuals with expertise that is currently

sought or considered to be of high value in organizations. For example,
learning and expertise are perceived as having increasing value in organiza-
tions (O’Connell, 1999; Struemer et al., 1999). In this case, the expertise
elite would be those individuals with expertise in learning and in developing
others’ expertise. The role of HRD in providing experts or expertise has been
labeled unclear (Eichinger, Ulrich, & HRPS, 1998; Hodgets, Luthans, &
Slocum, 1999; Walker, 1999). With an intense focus on the development of
human resources, HRD has not explicitly focused on the recruitment of
human resources. Literature suggests that increasing competition for expert
practitioners may provide a challenge for HRD to take a more active role in
recruiting (Wright, Dyer, & Takls, 1999).
HRD professionals also have an important opportunity to validate their
role in developing human resources. HRD’s traditional role in developing
expertise in humans and organizations is becoming ever more important
(Eichinger & Ulrich, 1998), and the demand for HRD interventions that pro-
vide a consistent and increasing demonstration of return on investment can
be expected to rise (Hodgets et al., 1999).

Globalization

Overall, HRD must focus on the challenges of truly embracing the pro-
cess of globalization with all its implications. There are many issues to con-
sider, including crossing boundaries of time, space, geography, and culture;

Downloaded from adh.sagepub.com at SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF on November 6, 2016

262 Advances in Developing Human Resources August 2003

economic issues; culture clash; working virtually; coping with increased

bureaucracy; and exploitation issues arising out of countries with fewer
legal restrictions.
The implications of globalization include a need for the profession to
better understand and integrate intercultural practices into global organiza-
tion, rather than assuming or imposing a Western view on the people and cul-
ture of other countries. HRD must also reflect deeply about the effects of
globalization on all aspects of work and culture and only then proceed in
developing specific methods for workplace learning and organizational
change. Globalization and its implications are large and far-reaching and
are a prominent feature of futures literature (Flanagan, 1999; Hodgets et al.,
1999; McLagan, 1999; Wentling & Palma-Rivas, 1998; Wright et al., 1999).
A separate article in this issue is exclusively devoted to examining the
potential impact and implications of globalization in the realm of HRD.

Locus of Control—Organizations or Individuals?

Increasing workforce diversity can be characterized by an aging baby-

boomer generation in the United States, more generations present in the global
workplace, and rising diversity of worker knowledge and skill levels in countries
with varied economic activity levels. For example, Carnevale and Desrochers
(1999) reported the following trends in the United States:

• “immense growth in the U.S. white collar, private sector, job market”
(p. 32);
• “shifting skill requirements” (p. 33) associated with the changing
U.S. economy;
• “increasing focus on training and re-training” (p. 34);
• “increasing requirement for college education” (p. 35); and
• “increasing competition for highly skilled, trained, knowledgeable
workers”(p. 36).

Furthermore, O’Connell (1999) suggested that increasing employee individual-

ism and a growing sense of entitlement will have major effects on the global
workforce, especially with Generation X. Wedell (1999) supported this notion
but added that the new global generation is looking for “satisfying work” (p. 5)
in addition to fewer weekly hours.
The link between an increasingly individualized workforce and a concen-
tration on developing skills is revealed when considering the implications
for training and workforce education. Individualistic workers are demand-
ing skills that are not only necessary for specific job performance but also
skills that may be transferred to multiple workplace settings (O’Connell,
1999). The role of HRD may face drastic change in the face of an almost

Downloaded from adh.sagepub.com at SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF on November 6, 2016

 Chermack et al. / CRITIC AL UNCERTAINTIES CONFRONTING HRD 263

wholly individualistic workforce requiring completely custom training.

With individuals managing and creating their own careers, HRD may be
required to accommodate an increasingly modular customer base, providing
a variety of skill-based training and knowledge sharing, and do so while
aligning all of them with strategic organizational processes.

Marketability of Knowledge

Literature has identified knowledge and knowledge management as a

current gap in HRD. Furthermore, literature suggests that gap as a strong
opportunity for HRD to demonstrate its capabilities (Athey & Orth, 1999;
Torraco, 2000). Walker (1999) further asserted that knowledge and knowl-
edge management is an area that HRD can take responsibility for in
organizations.
The strategic importance of HRD to organizational performance has been
increasingly underscored (Brockbank, 1999; Heneman, Tansky, & Camp,
2000; Hodgets et al., 1999; Kerr & Von Glinow, 1997; LaRock, 1999).
Wilkerson (1997) reported, from an MIT study, that 90% of HR-related
costs were found to be related to administrative and service delivery,
whereas only 10% were found to be devoted to strategy, organization devel-
opment, and executive training and development—the things that are per-
ceived by organizations to have the most value. The requirements for gener-
ating, sharing, and managing organizationally relevant knowledge will
provide an increasing role and pressure for HRD.

Next Age

Much attention is given to considering the current “age” (Kerr & Von
Glinow, 1997). Some suggest the world is entering the knowledge age
(Allee, 1997; Torraco, 2000) and others suggest the information age
(Stacey, 1996) and the participation age (McLagan & Nel, 1995). With
increasing technological innovation, some further speculate that the next
age will be one of creativity—the only thing that will separate humans from
“smart” computers and gadgets of extensive variety. Given the ever-
increasing pace of change (Allee, 1997; Schwartz, 1991; Stacey, 1996), we
can expect the coming and going of ages to occur more frequently, and so the
value of considering a variety of plausible ages will contribute to the contin-
ued preparedness and flexibility of the discipline of HRD. Underlying this
critical uncertainty is the basic notion of shifting away from the rationalist
and industrial era to one that is viewed as interrelated, complex, and highly
systemic in nature.

Downloaded from adh.sagepub.com at SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF on November 6, 2016

264 Advances in Developing Human Resources August 2003

Clearly, any future age will bring with it a different set of priorities. How-
ever, it is likely that those priorities will be set by the engagement of HRD
professionals in addressing a variety of uncertainties in the environment—
perhaps some of those discussed here. Key to responding quickly to a variety
of plausible future states is a result of having previously considered them or
future states similar to them (Wack, 1985).

Technological Explosion

Technology is a force that will continue to fundamentally shape organi-

zations. “E-everything” continues to change the way work is done and who’s
doing it to such a degree that we may not recognize what we now call the
workplace in 15 years (Wright et al., 1999). Much of the literature points to
the use of information technology (IT) to automate mundane/task functions,
increasing use of computers, increasing reliance on computers, and more
user-friendly and compact technology (Streumer et al., 1999; Wilkerson,
1997).
Literature suggests that computers will eventually replace many tasks,
leaving the real “work” for the knowledge worker (O’Connell, 1999). This
implies that many jobs could be at risk, or perhaps new forms of work will
emerge. Also quite frequent is mention of the increasing use of technology
to automate functions that don’t require the capacities of humans
(McKenna, 1999; Schelberg, Weinstein, & Bitman, 1999; Streumer et al.,
1999; Wilkerson, 1997). Lacking was evidence to support the incorporation
of robotics and the melding of humans and computers, although there are
specific industries that warn of this coming age.

Conclusions
This article has presented uncertainties with the capacity to alter the dis-
cipline of HRD in profound ways. Each of the uncertainties presented in this
article is likely to fundamentally affect HRD, if it is not already doing so.
Moreover, it is likely that multiple trends, forces, or uncertainties will inter-
act in even more uncertain ways to create the future, introducing even more
uncertainty to the varying environment in which HRD professionals operate.
HRD’s response to each of these critical uncertainties has implications
for the further credibility of the field itself. As a core entity responsible for
the development and unleashing of the required human expertise to main-
tain and develop competitive advantage in a knowledge economy, HRD has
its work cut out. The critical uncertainties proposed in this article are sum-
marized along with their core challenges to HRD in Table 1.
The point, however, is not to predict the future. Examining trends will
never allow humans to foresee how events will actually unfold. The chal-

Downloaded from adh.sagepub.com at SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF on November 6, 2016

 Chermack et al. / CRITIC AL UNCERTAINTIES CONFRONTING HRD 265

TABLE 1: Critical Uncertainties and Their Corresponding Challenges to HRD

Critical Uncertainty Core Challenge to the HRD Profession

1. Competition for the What is HRD’s role in recruiting or

“expertise elite” developing increasingly competent and
expert workers?
2. Globalization How will HRD balance boundaries of time,
space, geography, and culture, while
maintaining its focus on developing
workplace expertise?
3. Locus of control— How will HRD strike a balance between ever
organizations or individuals demanding organizations and individuals?
4. Marketability of knowledge What is the role and responsibility of HRD in
developing, sharing, transferring, and
protecting organizational knowledge?
5. Next age How can HRD assure that it is flexible
enough as a discipline to respond effectively
to the demands of a variety of “ages” and
the priorities they will bring?
6. Technological explosion How will the role of HRD shift in the context
of a highly automated, technologically
demanding workplace?
Note: HRD = human resource development.

lenge is to increase consideration about what could plausibly happen, make

assumptions explicit, and then question the things that are taken for granted
in those assumptions. Simply by engaging in this process, HRD profession-
als begin to play a role in shaping the future that will actually come to be.
This article has presented one analysis and view of critical uncertainties in
HRD. What is yours?

Appendix
Trends in Human Resource Development

1. Changing nature of work

2. Accelerating pace of change
3. Direct exchange of value
4. Organization structure
5. Rising bargaining power of the workforce
6. Immense growth in U.S. white-collar, private sector job market
7. High-skilled, high-wage U.S. economy will keep growing
8. Shifting skill requirements
9. Increasing focus on training and retraining
10. Increasing reliance on computers
11. Increasing requirement for college education

Downloaded from adh.sagepub.com at SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF on November 6, 2016

266 Advances in Developing Human Resources August 2003

12. Increasing competition for highly skilled/trained/knowledgeable workers

13. Increasing diversity in the workplace
14. Society will become more diverse
15. Corporations will become more global
16. Diversity in the workplace is increasing in its importance as a business
issue
17. Diverse work teams are, and will continue to be, the reality
18. Diversity training will be integrated with other kinds of training
19. Organizational trends
20. Consumer criteria relevant to measuring business results
21. Information networking will exceed national boundaries
22. Increasing innovative capacities of organizations
23. Employees take responsibility for their career and work
24. Teams become the norm
25. Increasing influence of international economy
26. Increasing reengineering to the “high performance organization”
27. Organizations determine their position
28. Technological trends
29. Changing nature of the invention, storage, and use of information (dig-
ital, electronics, internet)
30. Technology will become more portable and user-friendly
31. Increasing use of the PC—no more mainframes
32. Increasing role of the computer
33. Increasing reliance on the computer
34. Training trends
35. Training will become more integrated with work
36. Increasing reliance on “just in time” training
37. Increase in self-guided and team learning
38. Increasing importance of performance improvement
39. Increasing efforts to make training work for diverse groups
40. Continuing search for balance between centralized and decentral-
ized—and the training that best suits structure
41. Increasing attention to the evaluation of learning
42. Companies with large numbers of part-time or temporary employees
continue to struggle with issues of how to train them
43. Trends of virtual human resources (HR)
44. HR services are increasingly available instantaneously, on demand, at
the place most convenient to the employee—anywhere in the world
45. Automation of benefits administration
46. Attack on HR administration and paper pushing—wasting time and
resources
47. Increasing focus on the strategic role of HR
48. Focus on development of systems to handle the routine tasks
49. Increasing use and reliance on technology in HR
50. Adopting best global practices
51. Interactive HR Web sites
52. Growth in 401(k) education programs
53. Rising number of employees requiring “eldercare” (time off,
resources, etc., to assist with elderly parents)
54. Benefits becoming uniquely different according to organization—
based on business and type of employee

Downloaded from adh.sagepub.com at SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF on November 6, 2016

 Chermack et al. / CRITIC AL UNCERTAINTIES CONFRONTING HRD 267

55. Increasing attention to education about retirement and savings—more

interest in benefits overall
56. Technology solution to administrative tasks increasing
57. Rising health care costs
58. Increasing importance of flexibility of time to employees
59. Online benefits administration and information storage
60. Changing compensation and benefits strategies
61. Changing role of human resources and benefits plans
62. Increases in outsourcing HR functions
63. Increasing focus on the options in 401(k) plans
64. Changing employee behavior
65. Increasing issues of how to motivate employees—what do they really
want?
66. Changing compensation for “global” employees
67. Multinational corporations are becoming larger and geographically
concentrated
68. Mixed economic growth—some countries will continue to prosper and
some may collapse
69. Advancing technological developments
70. The increasing importance of the strategic role—especially for HR
71. The expanding role of the customer—the old ways are not sufficient, it
is a consumers market
72. Increasing importance of entrepreneurship—in existing firms to take
advantage of emerging technologies, etc.
73. Emerging and increasing importance of HR’s role and contribution to
competitive advantage
74. Increasing importance of developing organizational capabilities
required to execute business strategies
75. Increasing focus on specialized HR functions—the generalist will not
do anymore
76. Increasing importance of culture/culture change
77. Increasing importance of globalization
78. Increasing lack of management and leadership talent
79. Changing competency methods
80. Demand for more participative competency approaches
81. Shift toward short-cycle competency methods
82. Increasing emphasis on emerging future competencies
83. Increasing focus on team and process competencies
84. Transition to an organizational learning perspective
85. Increasing global competition
86. Competition in terms of serious labor shortages and anticipated spread
of different psychological contracts (generation Xers)
87. A competitive advantage is a moving target
88. People-driven systems are badly needed—more effective management
of people
89. Marketplace agility requires organizational agility
90. Pressure to enhance the talent pool—shortage of talent
91. Align behavior with firm goals—need to develop high-commitment
work systems and high-performance cultures
92. Increasingly strategic role of HR
93. Increasing scarcity of talent
94. Increasing difficulty in recruiting, selecting, and retention

Downloaded from adh.sagepub.com at SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF on November 6, 2016

268 Advances in Developing Human Resources August 2003

95. Increasing issues of employee motivation (generation Xers)

96. Increasing importance of career development
97. Global competition for business and jobs
98. Career change as a way of life
99. Rise of outsourcing—continuous learning is the key to success
100. Explosive growth of technology-based learning
101. Increasing importance of quality of life
102. Globalization—shift away from traditional and static structural solu-
tions to acceptance of the fluid and dynamic network of the global
environment
103. Continuous restructuring—mergers and acquisitions and a volatile
economy have made employees more self-reliant
104. Dominance of intellectual capital—intellectual capital has become the
most important, and the only, asset
105. Technology revolution—desktop technology individualizes the work-
place and decentralizes work itself
106. Continuing emphasis on employee loyalty (devise reward systems,
recruit, recognize, and promote employees)
107. More insourcing/building the HR department and programs—the only
advantage
108. Increasingly key role of HR
109. Emphasis on individuals in organizations
110. HR role in globalization increases—training, expatriation, and repatri-
ation, etc.
111. Increasing importance of recruiting, hiring, paying, developing, moti-
vating, etc.
112. Increasing importance of reviewing, counseling, supporting, etc.—
most important, though, is support management
113. Integration of finance, operations, AND people that produces excep-
tional performance
114. Increasing use of personality inventories in employee selection
115. Accountability—HRM (HR management) becoming a strategic part-
ner and must continue to prove that it can be one
116. Diversity—HRM is and will be increasingly dealing with diversity
117. Justice—organizational justice is an increasing area of interest for
HRM.
118. Reputational considerations—issues of power and control will shift as
the role of HRM changes

References
Allee, V. (1997). The knowledge evolution: Expanding organizational intelligence. New-
ton, MA: Focal Press.
Athey, T. R., & Orth, M. S. (1999). Emerging competency methods for the future. Human
Resource Management, 38(3), 215-226.
Brockbank, W. (1999, Winter). If HR were really strategically proactive: Present and
future directions in HR’s contribution to competitive advantage. Human Resource
Management, 38(4), 337-350.

Downloaded from adh.sagepub.com at SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF on November 6, 2016

 Chermack et al. / CRITIC AL UNCERTAINTIES CONFRONTING HRD 269

Carnevale, A. P., & Desrochers, D. (1999, December). Training in the Dilbert economy.
Training and Development, pp. 32-36.
Eichinger, R., Ulrich, D., & HRPS. (1998). It’s déjô all over again: Are you getting ready?
Human Resource Planning, pp. 50-61.
Flanagan, R. J. (1999, June). Knowledge management in global organizations in the 21st
century. HR Magazine, pp. 54-55.
Heneman, R. L., Tansky, J. W., & Camp, S. M. (2000, Fall). Human resource manage-
ment practices in small and medium-sized enterprises: Unanswered questions and
future research perspectives. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, pp. 11-26.
Hodgets, R. M., Luthans, F., & Slocum, J. W., Jr. (1999). Strategy and HRM initiatives for
the ‘00s environment: Redefining roles and boundaries, linking competencies and
resources. Organizational Dynamics, 17(2), 7-20.
Hodgson, A. M. (1992). Hexagons for systems thinking. European Journal of Opera-
tional Research, 59, 220-230.
Kerr, S., & Von Glinow, M. A. (1997). The future of HR: Plus ca change, plus c’est la
meme chose [The future of HR: The more things change the more they stay the same].
Human Resource Management, 36(1), 115-119.
LaRock, S. (1999). The shape of the future: Its impact on human resources and benefits
plans. Employee Benefit Plan Review, 24(18), 42-43.
McKenna, J. W. (1999, April). Next generation HR web sites. HR Focus, pp. S5-S6.
McLagan, P. A. (1999, December). As the HRD world churns. Training and Develop-
ment, pp. 20-30.
McLagan, P. A., & Nel, C. (1995). The age of participation: New governance for the
workplace and the world. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler.
Mintzberg, H. (1978). Patterns in strategy formulation. Management Science, 27(4), 934-
948.
O’Connell, J. (1999, January). HR’s next challenge: Harnessing individualism. HR
Focus, pp. 7-8.
Oxford English Dictionary. (2001). Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
Porter, M. E. (1981). The contributions of industrial organization to strategic manage-
ment. Academy of Management Journal, 7(2), 609-620.
Schelberg, N. S., Weinstein, S. D., & Bitman, C. A. (1999). Paperless benefit plan admin-
istration in the new millennium. Employee Benefits Journal, 24(4), 18-22.
Schwartz, P. (1991). The art of the long view. Doubleday: New York.
Stacey, R. D. (1996). Managing the unknowable: Strategic boundaries between order
and chaos in organizations. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Stevenson, H. H. (1976, Spring). Defining corporate strengths and weaknesses. Sloan
Management Review, pp. 51-68.
Streumer, J. N., Van der Klink, M. R., & Van de Brink, K. (1999). The future of HRD.
International Journal of Lifelong Education, 18(4), 259-274.
Torraco, R. J. (2000). A theory of knowledge management. Advances in Developing
Human Resources, 2(1), 38-62.
Wack, P. (1985). Scenarios: Shooting the rapids. Harvard Business Review, 63(6), 139-
150.

Downloaded from adh.sagepub.com at SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF on November 6, 2016

270 Advances in Developing Human Resources August 2003

Walker, J. W. (1999). Perspectives: Is HR ready for the 21st century? Human Resource
Planning, 22(2), 5-7.
Wedell, K. K. (1999). Covering new ground in benefits—Looking ahead to 2000 and
beyond. Employee Benefits Journal, 24(4), 3-9.
Wentling, R. M., & Palma-Rivas, N. (1998). Current status and future trends of diversity
initiatives in the workplace: Diversity experts’ perspectives. Human Resource Devel-
opment Quarterly, 9(3), 235-253.
Wilkerson, J. L. (1997, March). The future is virtual HR. HR Focus, p. 15.
Wright, P. M., Dyer, L., & Takls, M. G. (1999). What’s next? Key findings from the 1999
state-of-the-art & practice study. Human Resource Planning, 22(4), 12-20.

Thomas J. Chermack received his Ph.D. from the University of Minnesota in April
2003. He is the author of several recent articles examining the theory base of sce-
nario planning that have appeared in Human Resource Development Review,
Human Resource Development International, Futures, and Futures Research Quar-
terly. His research interests center around scenario planning, decision making, and
strategic processes in HRD.

Susan A. Lynham is an assistant professor in HRD at Texas A & M University. She

has over 18 years experience as an HRD professional. Her experience includes cul-
ture change in multicultural settings, strategic planning, performance management,
quality improvement, organization and work study, and leadership development,
gained in both the United States and South Africa. Her research interests focus on
strategic HRD and methods of building understanding and inquiry in HRD (specifi-
cally, applied theory-building methods and leadership and leadership development
for performance). Sue completed her Ph.D. (specializing in HRD) at the University
of Minnesota in May 2000, where she also served as an instructor and researcher.

Wendy E. A. Ruona is an assistant professor of human resource and organization

development (HROD) at the University of Georgia. Her major areas of research
include performance and intervention effectiveness systems, foundations of HRD
(philosophical, theoretical, and historical), and strategic HRD—all areas in which
she has published articles and/or papers. Dr. Ruona’s publications have appeared
in many scholarly journals. Dr. Ruona was recently awarded the Outstanding Assis-
tant Professor Award by the University Council for Workforce and Human Resource
Education and has also been awarded the Richard A. Swanson Research Excellence
Award for her research. She is currently the associate editor-in-chief of Advances in
Developing Human Resources and serves on the board of directors for the Academy
of Human Resource Development. Dr. Ruona completed her Ph.D. in HRD at the
University of Minnesota in 1999.

Downloaded from adh.sagepub.com at SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF on November 6, 2016

 Chermack et al. / CRITIC AL UNCERTAINTIES CONFRONTING HRD 271

Chermack, T. J., Lynham, S. A., & Ruona, W. E. A. (2003). Critical uncertainties

confronting human resource development. Advances in Developing Human
Resources, 5(3), 257-271.

Downloaded from adh.sagepub.com at SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF on November 6, 2016