DISSERTATION

SSERTATION REPORT
(KMB 405)
ON

“A
A Study on Impact of Covid 19 on
Indian
n Economy and Markets”
Markets

SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT

FOR THE AWARD DEGREE OF

Master of Business Administration

(MBA)

SUBMITTED BY SUBMITTED TO
ANEES AHMAD KHAN MR FAIZE NABI
Roll No. 1817570010 Assistant Professor
ABIMS, Aligarh

AL-BARKAAT
BARKAAT INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
Anoopshahr Road, Aligarh
(Affiliated to AKTU, Lucknow
Lucknow)
2019-20

1
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

A dissertation report is never the sole product of the person whose name appears on

the cover. There is always help, guidance and suggestion of many in preparation of

such a report. So it becomes my first duty to express my gratitude towards all of them.

First of all I express my gratefulness to Mr. Faize Nabi (Assistant Professor),

Management Department, ABIMS, Aligarh for his thoughtfulness, excellent guidance

and insight which was extended to me at every step of the making of the project and

cozen environment which was available at all points.

A token of deep appreciation to my friends who were always by my side at time of

need, other than above there were many friends whom I have failed to mention the

names have also done the needful for me.

Above all, I am beholden to my parents for their loving and caring attitude and

generous support at every step of my life.

Thank You

(Anees Ahmad Khan)

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 DECLARATION

I Anees Ahmad Khan student of MBA, Al-Barkaat Institute of Management

Studies, Aligarh approved by AICTE affiliated to AKTU, Lucknow here by declares

that the Dessertation Report ”A Study on Impact of Covid 19 on Indian Economy

and Markets”

Further, I also declare that I have tried my best to complete this report a most

sincerely and accuracy ,even then if any mistake or error has been crept in ,I shall

most humbly request the readers to point out those errors or omission and guide me

for the removal of those errors in the future.

Anees Ahmad Khan

(4TH SEM)
ABIMS, Aligarh

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 CONTENT

Acknowledgement I

Declaration II

Topics Covered :
Chapter 1.
Introduction to the Topic 06-34
Chapter 2.
Economic Impact of Covid 19 Pandemic in India 35-49
Chapter 3.

Impact of Covid 19 on Global Manufacturing 50-53

Industry 2020

Chapter 4.

Impact of Covid 19 on Banking And Capital Market

Institutions 54-56

Chapter 5.
Impact of Covid 19 as Government Amends FDI Policy
to regulate Chinese investment into india 57-61

Chapter 6.
Impact of Covid 19 Pandemic pulls Indias service
sector activity into contraction mode 62-64

Chapter 7.
Impact of Covid 19 Pandemic on Education 65-78
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Chapter 8.

Impact of Covid 19 on E-Commerce 79-82

Chapter 9.

Impact of Covid 19 on Business Sector 83-87

Chapter 10.

Impact of Covid 19 on Indian Real Estate Institution

Investment 88-90

Chapter 11.

Impact of Covid-19 on Gold Prices in India 91-93

Chapter 12.

Suggestions 94-95

Chapter 13.

Findings 96-100

Chapter 14.

Limitations 101-102

Chapter – 15

Conclusion 103-105

Chapter – 16

Bibliography 106-108

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 CHAPTER-1
INTRODUCTION TO THE
TOPIC

6
 INTRODUCTION
Coronaviruses are important human and animal pathogens. At the end of
2019, a novel coronavirus was identified as the cause of a cluster of
pneumonia cases in Wuhan, a city in the Hubei Province of China. It
rapidly spread, resulting in an epidemic throughout China, followed by an
increasing number of cases in other countries throughout the world. In
February 2020, the World Health Organization designated the disease
COVID-19, which stands for coronavirus disease 2019
[1]. The virus that causes COVID-19 is designated severe acute
respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); previously, it was
referred to as 2019-nCoV.
Understanding of COVID-19 is evolving. Interim guidance has been
issued by the World Health Organization and by the United
States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [2,3].
This topic will discuss the virology, epidemiology, clinical features,
diagnosis, and prevention of COVID-19
VIROLOGY Full-genome sequencing and phylogenic analysis indicated
that the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 is a betacoronavirus in the
same subgenus as the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) virus (as
well as several bat coronaviruses), but in a different clade. The structure
of the receptor-binding gene region is very similar to that of the SARS
coronavirus, and the virus has been shown to use the same receptor, the
angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), for cell entry [4]. The
Coronavirus Study Group of the International Committee on Taxonomy
of Viruses has proposed that this virus be designated severe acute
respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [5].
The Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) virus, another
betacoronavirus, appears more distantly related [6,7]. The closest RNA
sequence similarity is to two bat coronaviruses, and it appears likely that
bats are the primary source; whether COVID-19 virus is transmitted
directly from bats or through some other mechanism (eg, through an
intermediate host) is unknown [8]. (See "Coronaviruses", section on
'Viral serotypes'.)
In a phylogenetic analysis of 103 strains of SARS-CoV-2 from China,
two different types of SARS-CoV-2 were identified, designated type L
(accounting for 70 percent of the strains) and type S (accounting for 30
percent) [9]. The L type predominated during the early days of the
epidemic in China, but accounted for a lower proportion of strains outside

7
of Wuhan than in Wuhan. The clinical implications of these findings are
uncertain.
EPIDEMIOLOGY
Geographic distribution — Globally, more than three million confirmed
cases of COVID-19 have been reported. Updated case counts in English
can be found on the World Health Organization and European Centre for
Disease Prevention and Control websites. An interactive map
highlighting confirmed cases throughout the world can be found here.
Since the first reports of cases from Wuhan, a city in the Hubei Province
of China, at the end of 2019, more than 80,000 COVID-19 cases have
been reported in China, with the majority of those from Hubei and
surrounding provinces. A joint World Health Organization (WHO)-China
fact-finding mission estimated that the epidemic in China peaked between
late January and early February 2020 [10], and the rate of new cases
decreased substantially by early March.
However, cases have been reported in all continents, except for
Antarctica, and have been steadily rising around the world.
In the United States, COVID-19 has been reported in all 50 states,
Washington DC, and at least four territories [11]. The cumulative
incidence varies by state and likely depends on a number of factors,
including population density and demographics, extent of testing and
reporting, and timing of mitigation strategies. In the United States,
outbreaks in long-term care facilities and homeless shelters have
emphasized the risk of exposure and infection in congregate settings [12-
14].
'Risk of transmission'
Transmission — Understanding of the transmission risk is incomplete.
Epidemiologic investigation in Wuhan at the beginning of the outbreak
identified an initial association with a seafood market that sold live
animals, where most patients had worked or visited and which was
subsequently closed for disinfection [15]. However, as the outbreak
progressed, person-to-person spread became the main mode of
transmission.
Person-to-person
Route of person-to-person transmission — The exact mode of person-
to-person spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
(SARS-CoV-2) is unclear. It is thought to occur mainly via respiratory
8
droplets, resembling the spread of influenza. With droplet transmission,
virus released in the respiratory secretions when a person with infection
coughs, sneezes, or talks can infect another person if it makes direct
contact with the mucous membranes; infection can also occur if a person
touches an infected surface and then touches his or her eyes, nose, or
mouth. Droplets typically do not travel more than six feet (about two
meters) and do not linger in the air.
Whether SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted through the airborne route
(through particles smaller than droplets that remain in the air over time
and distance) under natural conditions has been a controversial issue. One
letter to the editor described a study in which SARS-CoV-2 grown in
tissue culture remained viable in experimentally generated aerosols for at
least three hours [16]; some studies have identified viral RNA in
ventilation systems and in air samples of hospital rooms of patients with
COVID-19, but cultures for viable virus were not performed in these
studies [17-19]. Other studies using high-speed imaging to visualize
respiratory exhalations have suggested that respiratory droplets may get
carried in a gas cloud and have horizontal trajectories beyond six feet
(two meters) with speaking, coughing, or sneezing [20,21]. However, the
direct relevance of these findings to the epidemiology of COVID-19 and
their clinical implications are unclear. Long-range airborne transmission
of SARS-CoV-2 has not clearly been documented [22], and in a few
reports of health care workers exposed to patients with undiagnosed
infection with only contact and droplet precautions, no secondary
infections were identified despite the absence of airborne precautions
[23,24]. Reflecting the current uncertainty regarding transmission
mechanisms, recommendations on airborne precautions in the health care
setting vary by location; airborne precautions are universally
recommended when aerosol-generating procedures are performed. This is
discussed in detail elsewhere.

"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Infection control in health

care and home settings", section on 'Patients with suspected or
confirmed COVID-19'.)
SARS-CoV-2 has been detected in non-respiratory specimens, including
stool, blood, and ocular secretions, but the role of these sites in
transmission is uncertain [25-29]. In particular, several reports have
described detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from stool specimens, even
after viral RNA could no longer be detected from upper respiratory
specimens [28,29], and live virus has been cultured from stool in some

9
cases [26]. Although it would be difficult to confirm, fecal-oral
transmission has not been clinically described, and according to a joint
WHO-China report, did not appear to be a significant factor in the spread
of infection [30].
Detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in blood has also been reported in some
but not all studies that have tested for it [25,26,29,31]. However, the
likelihood of bloodborne transmission (eg, through blood products or
needlesticks) appears low; respiratory viruses are generally not
transmitted through the bloodborne route, and transfusion-transmitted
infection has not been reported for SARS-CoV-2 or for the related
MERS-CoV or SARS-CoV [32].
"Blood donor screening: Laboratory testing", section on 'Emerging
infectious disease agents'.)
Viral shedding and period of infectivity — The interval during which
an individual with COVID-19 is infectious is uncertain. It appears that
SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted prior to the development of symptoms
and throughout the course of illness. However, most data informing this
issue are from studies evaluating viral RNA detection from respiratory
and other specimens, and detection of viral RNA does not necessarily
indicate the presence of infectious virus.
Viral RNA levels from upper respiratory specimens appear to be higher
soon after symptom onset compared with later in the illness [33-36].
Additionally, in a study of nine patients with mild COVID-19, infectious
virus was isolated from naso/oropharyngeal and sputum specimens during
the first week of illness, but not after this interval, despite continued high
viral RNA levels at these sites [35]. One modeling study, based on the
timing of infection among 77 transmission pairs in China (with a mean
serial interval of 5.8 days between the onset of symptoms in each pair)
and assumptions about incubation period, suggested infectiousness started
2.3 days prior to symptom onset, peaked 0.7 days before symptom onset,
and declined within seven days; however, most patients were isolated
following symptom onset, which would reduce the risk of transmission
later in illness regardless of infectiousness [36]. These findings raise the
possibility that patients might be more infectious in the earlier stage of
infection, but additional data are needed to confirm this hypothesis.
Nevertheless, transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from asymptomatic
individuals (or individuals within the incubation period) has been
documented [37-41]. The biologic basis for this is supported by a study of
a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a long-term care facility, in which infectious

10
virus was cultured from reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction
(RT-PCR)-positive upper respiratory tract specimens in presymptomatic
and asymptomatic patients as early as six days prior to the development
of typical symptoms [42]. However, the extent to which asymptomatic or
presymptomatic transmission occurs and how much it contributes to the
pandemic remain unknown. In an analysis of 157 locally acquired
COVID-19 cases in Singapore, transmission during the incubation period
was estimated to account for 6.4 percent; in such cases, the exposures
occurred one to three days prior to symptom development [43]. Large-
scale serologic screening may be able to provide a better sense of the
scope of asymptomatic infections and inform epidemiologic analysis;
several serologic tests for SARS-CoV-2 are under development, and
some have been granted emergency use authorization by the US Food and
Drug Administration (FDA) [44,45].
How long a person remains infectious is also uncertain. The duration of
viral shedding is variable; there appears to be a wide range, which may
depend on severity of illness [29,35,46-48]. In one study of 21 patients
with mild illness (no hypoxia), 90 percent had repeated negative viral
RNA tests on nasopharyngeal swabs by 10 days after the onset of
symptoms; tests were positive for longer in patients with more severe
illness [46]. In contrast, in another study of 56 patients with mild to
moderate illness (none required intensive care), the median duration of
viral RNA shedding from naso- or oropharyngeal specimens was 24 days,
and the longest was 42 days [49]. However, as mentioned above,
detectable viral RNA does not always correlate with isolation of
infectious virus, and there may be a threshold of viral RNA level below
which infectivity is unlikely. In the study of nine patients with mild
COVID-19 described above, infectious virus was not detected from
respiratory specimens when the viral RNA level was <106 copies/mL
[35].
The impact of viral RNA detection on infection control precautions is
discussed elsewhere. (See " Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19):
Infection control in health care and home settings", section on
'Discontinuation of precautions'.)
Risk of transmission — The risk of transmission from an individual with
SARS-CoV-2 infection varies by the type and duration of exposure, use
of preventive measures, and likely individual factors (eg, the amount of
virus in respiratory secretions). Most secondary infections have been
described among household contacts, in congregate or health care settings
when personal protective equipment was not used (including hospitals
[50] and long-term care facilities [12]), and in closed settings (eg, cruise

11
ships [51]). However, reported clusters of cases after social or work
gatherings also highlight the risk of transmission through close, non-
household contact.
Contact tracing in the early stages of epidemics at various locations
suggested that most secondary infections were among household
contacts, with a secondary attack rate of up to 16 percent [30,52-54].
According to a joint WHO-China report, the rate of secondary COVID-19
in various locations ranged from 1 to 5 percent among tens of thousands
of close contacts of confirmed patients in China; most of these occurred
within households, with an in-household secondary attack rate of 3 to 10
percent [30]. In the United States, the symptomatic secondary attack rate
was 0.45 percent among 445 close contacts of 10 confirmed patients;
among household members, the rate was 10.5 percent [52]. In a similar
study in Korea, the rates were comparable, with secondary infections in
0.55 percent of all contacts and 7.6 percent of family members [53].
Clusters of cases have also been reported following family, work, or
social gatherings where close, personal contact can occur [55,56]. As an
example, epidemiologic analysis of a cluster of cases in the state of
Illinois showed probable transmission through two family gatherings at
which communal food was consumed, embraces were shared, and
extended face-to-face conversations were exchanged with symptomatic
individuals who were later confirmed to have COVID-19 [55].
The risk of transmission with more indirect contact (eg, passing someone
with infection on the street, handling items that were previously handled
by someone with infection) is not well established and is likely low.
Environmental contamination — Virus present on contaminated
surfaces may be another source of infection if susceptible individuals
touch these surfaces and then transfer infectious virus to mucous
membranes in the mouth, eyes, or nose. The frequency and relative
importance of this type of transmission remain unclear. It may be more
likely to be a potential source of infection in settings where there is heavy
viral contamination (eg, in an infected individual's household or in health
care settings).
Extensive SARS-CoV-2 contamination of environmental surfaces in
hospital rooms of patients with COVID-19 has been described [17,57]. In
a study from Singapore, viral RNA was detected on nearly all surfaces
tested (handles, light switches, bed and handrails, interior doors and
windows, toilet bowl, sink basin) in the airborne infection isolation room
of a patient with symptomatic mild COVID-19 prior to routine cleaning
12
[17]. Viral RNA was not detected on similar surfaces in the rooms of two
other symptomatic patients following routine cleaning (with sodium
dichloroisocyanurate). Of note, viral RNA detection does not necessarily
indicate the presence of infectious virus [35].
It is unknown how long SARS-CoV-2 can persist on surfaces [16,58,59];
other coronaviruses have been tested and may survive on inanimate
surfaces for up to six to nine days without disinfection. In a study
evaluating the survival of viruses dried on a plastic surface at room
temperature, a specimen containing SARS-CoV (a virus closely related to
SARS-CoV-2) had detectable infectivity at six but not nine days [59].
However, in a systematic review of similar studies, various disinfectants
(including ethanol at concentrations between 62 and 71%) inactivated a
number of coronaviruses related to SARS-CoV-2 within one minute [58].
Based on data concerning other coronaviruses, duration of viral
persistence on surfaces also likely depends on the ambient temperature,
relative humidity, and the size of the initial inoculum [60].
These data highlight the importance of environmental disinfection in the
home and health care setting. (See "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-
19): Infection control in health care and home settings", section on
'Environmental disinfection'.)
Uncertain risk of animal contact — SARS-CoV-2 infection is thought
to have originally been transmitted to humans from an animal host, but
the ongoing risk of transmission through animal contact is uncertain.
There is no evidence suggesting animals (including domesticated
animals) are a major source of infection in humans.
SARS-CoV-2 infection has been described in animals in both natural and
experimental settings. There have been rare reports of animals with
SARS-CoV-2 infection (including asymptomatic infections in dogs and
symptomatic infections in cats) following close contact with a human
with COVID-19 [61]. The risk of infection may vary by species. In one
study evaluating infection in animals after intranasal viral inoculation,
SARS-CoV-2 replicated efficiently in ferrets and cats; viral replication
was also detected in dogs, but they appeared to be less susceptible overall
to experimental infection [62]. Pigs and poultry were not susceptible to
infection.
Given the uncertainty regarding the transmission risk and the apparent
susceptibility of some animals to SARS-CoV-2 infection, the United
States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends
that pets be kept away from other animals or people outside of the

13
household and that people with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 try to
avoid close contact with household pets, as they should with human
household members, for the duration of their self-isolation period. There
have been no reports of domesticated animals transmitting SARS-CoV-2
infection to humans.
Immunity and risk of reinfection — Antibodies to the virus are induced
in those who have become infected. Preliminary evidence suggests that
some of these antibodies are protective, but this remains to be definitively
established. Moreover, it is unknown whether all infected patients mount
a protective immune response and how long any protective effect will
last.
Data on protective immunity following COVID-19 are emerging
[34,35,63]. A case series evaluating convalescent plasma for treatment of
COVID-19 identified neutralizing activity in plasma of recovered patients
that appeared to be transferred to recipients following plasma infusion
[63]. Similarly, in another study of 23 patients who recovered from
COVID-19, antibodies to the receptor-binding domain of the spike
protein and the nucleocapsid protein were detected by enzyme-linked
immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in most patients by 14 days following the
onset of symptoms; ELISA antibody titers correlated with neutralizing
activity [34]. One preliminary study reported that rhesus macaques
infected with SARS-CoV-2 did not develop reinfection following
recovery and rechallenge [64]; however, this study has not been
published in a peer-reviewed journal, and further confirmation of these
findings is needed.
Some studies have reported positive RT-PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 in
patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 following clinical
improvement and negative results on two consecutive tests [65,66].
However, these positive tests occurred shortly after the negative tests,
were not associated with worsening symptoms, may not represent
infectious virus, and likely did not reflect reinfection.
As above, the FDA has granted emergency use authorization for tests that
qualitatively identify antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in serum or plasma
[45]. Should evidence confirm that the presence of these antibodies
reflects a protective immune response, serologic screening will be an
important tool to understand population immunity and distinguish
individuals who are at lower risk for reinfection.

14
CLINICAL FEATURES
Incubation period — The incubation period for COVID-19 is thought to
be within 14 days following exposure, with most cases occurring
approximately four to five days after exposure [67-69].
In a study of 1099 patients with confirmed symptomatic COVID-19, the
median incubation period was four days (interquartile range two to seven
days) [68].
Using data from 181 publicly reported, confirmed cases in China with
identifiable exposure, one modeling study estimated that symptoms
would develop in 2.5 percent of infected individuals within 2.2 days and
in 97.5 percent of infected individuals within 11.5 days [70]. The median
incubation period in this study was 5.1 days.
Spectrum of illness severity and case fatality rates — The spectrum of
symptomatic infection ranges from mild to critical; most infections are
not severe [50,69,71-75]. Specifically, in a report from the Chinese
Center for Disease Control and Prevention that included approximately
44,500 confirmed infections with an estimation of disease severity [76]:
●Mild (no or mild pneumonia) was reported in 81 percent.
●Severe disease (eg, with dyspnea, hypoxia, or >50 percent lung
involvement on imaging within 24 to 48 hours) was reported in
14 percent.
●Critical disease (eg, with respiratory failure, shock, or
multiorgan dysfunction) was reported in 5 percent.
●The overall case fatality rate was 2.3 percent; no deaths were
reported among noncritical cases.
Among hospitalized patients, the proportion of critical or fatal disease is
higher [77,78]. In a study that included 2634 patients who had been
hospitalized for COVID-19 in the New York City area, 14 percent were
treated in the intensive care unit and 12 percent received invasive
mechanical ventilation, and mortality among those receiving mechanical
ventilation was 88 percent [77]. However, the analysis was limited to
patients who had either been discharged or died during the admission, and
these patients represented fewer than half of the total population admitted
with COVID-19; thus, the proportion of critically ill patients and the
associated mortality rate may not accurately reflect those of the entire
hospitalized population.
The proportion of severe or fatal infections may also vary by location.
According to a joint World Health Organization (WHO)-China fact-
finding mission, the case fatality rate ranged from 5.8 percent in Wuhan
15
to 0.7 percent in the rest of China [30]. A modeling study suggested that
the adjusted case fatality rate in mainland China was 1.4 percent [79].
Most of the fatal cases occurred in patients with advanced age or
underlying medical comorbidities [47,76]. In Italy, 12 percent of all
detected COVID-19 cases and 16 percent of all hospitalized patients were
admitted to the intensive care unit; the estimated case fatality rate was 7.2
percent in mid-March [80,81]. In contrast, the estimated case fatality rate
in mid-March in South Korea was 0.9 percent [82]. This may be related
to distinct demographics of infection; in Italy, the median age of patients
with infection was 64 years, whereas in Korea the median age was in the
40s. (See 'Impact of age' below.)
Risk factors for severe illness — Severe illness can occur in otherwise
healthy individuals of any age, but it predominantly occurs in adults with
advanced age or underlying medical comorbidities.
Comorbidities that have been associated with severe illness and mortality
include (table 1) [47,76,83-85]:
●Cardiovascular disease
●Diabetes mellitus
●Hypertension
●Chronic lung disease
●Cancer (in particular hematologic malignancies, lung cancer,
and metastatic disease) [86]
●Chronic kidney disease
●Obesity
The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) also
includes immunocompromising conditions and liver disease as potential
risk factors for severe illness [87], although specific data regarding risks
associated with these conditions are limited.
In a subset of 355 patients who died with COVID-19 in Italy, the mean
number of pre-existing comorbidities was 2.7, and only 3 patients had no
underlying condition [81].
Among patients with advanced age and medical comorbidities, COVID-
19 is frequently severe. For example, in a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak across
several long-term care facilities in Washington State, the median age of
the 101 facility residents affected was 83 years, and 94 percent had a
chronic underlying condition; the hospitalization and preliminary case
fatality rates were 55 and 34 percent, respectively [88].

16
Males have comprised a disproportionately high number of deaths in
cohorts from China, Italy, and the United States [77,81,89].
In a number of states in the United States, black individuals also appear to
comprise a disproportionately high number of infections and deaths due
to COVID-19, possibly related to underlying socioeconomic disparities
[90-94].
Particular laboratory features have also been associated with worse
outcomes (table 2). These include [47,95,96]:
●Lymphopenia
●Elevated liver enzymes
●Elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH)
●Elevated inflammatory markers (eg, C-reactive protein [CRP],
ferritin)
●Elevated D-dimer (>1 mcg/mL)
●Elevated prothrombin time (PT)
●Elevated troponin
●Elevated creatine phosphokinase (CPK)
●Acute kidney injury
As an example, in one study, progressive decline in the lymphocyte count
and rise in the D-dimer over time were observed in nonsurvivors
compared with more stable levels in survivors [50].
Patients with severe disease have also been reported to have higher viral
RNA levels in respiratory specimens than those with milder disease [46],
although this association was not observed in a different study that
measured viral RNA in salivary specimens [34].
Impact of age — Individuals of any age can acquire severe acute
respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, although
adults of middle age and older are most commonly affected, and older
adults are more likely to have severe disease.
In several cohorts of hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19, the
median age ranged from 49 to 56 years [50,72,73]. In a report from the
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention that included
approximately 44,500 confirmed infections, 87 percent of patients were
between 30 and 79 years old [76]. Similarly, in a modeling study based
on data from mainland China, the hospitalization rate for COVID-19
increased with age, with a 1 percent rate for those 20 to 29 years old, 4
percent rate for those 50 to 59 years old, and 18 percent for those older
than 80 years [79].

17
Older age is also associated with increased mortality [76,77,81]. In a
report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, case
fatality rates were 8 and 15 percent among those aged 70 to 79 years and
80 years or older, respectively, in contrast to the 2.3 percent case fatality
rate among the entire cohort [76]. Similar findings were reported from
Italy, with case fatality rates of 12 and 20 percent among those aged 70 to
79 years and 80 years or older, respectively [81].
In the United States, 2449 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 between
February 12 and March 16, 2020 had age, hospitalization, and intensive
care unit (ICU) information available [97]; 67 percent of cases were
diagnosed in those aged ≥45 years, and, similar to findings from China,
mortality was highest among older individuals, with 80 percent of deaths
occurring in those aged ≥65 years.
Symptomatic infection in children appears to be relatively uncommon;
when it occurs, it is usually mild, although severe cases have been
reported [98-101]. Details of COVID-19 in children are discussed
elsewhere. (See "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Considerations
in children".)
Asymptomatic infections — Asymptomatic infections have been well
documented [69,102-108]. Their precise frequency is unknown, but
several studies performed in various settings suggest that they are
common. As examples:
●In a COVID-19 outbreak on a cruise ship where nearly all
passengers and staff were screened for SARS-CoV-2,
approximately 17 percent of the population on board tested
positive as of February 20; about half of the 619 confirmed
COVID-19 cases were asymptomatic at the time of diagnosis
[109]. A modeling study estimated that 18 percent were true
asymptomatic cases (ie, did not go on to develop symptoms),
although this was based on a number of assumptions, including
the incubation period [104].
●In a smaller COVID-19 outbreak within a skilled nursing
facility, 27 of the 48 residents (56 percent) who had a positive
screening test were asymptomatic at the time of diagnosis, but
24 of them ultimately developed symptoms over the next seven
days [42].
●Other studies have reported even higher proportions of
asymptomatic cases [14,107]. As an example, in a report of a
universal screening program of pregnant women presenting for
delivery at two New York hospitals at the height of the
pandemic there, 29 of 210 asymptomatic women without fever

18
 (14 percent) had a positive SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription
polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test on a nasopharyngeal
specimen [107]. Four additional women had fever or symptoms
and also tested positive. Thus, of 33 women with a positive
SARS-CoV-2 test, 29 (88 percent) were asymptomatic on
presentation.
Even patients with asymptomatic infection may have objective clinical
abnormalities [40,106]. As an example, in a study of 24 patients with
asymptomatic infection who all underwent chest computed tomography
(CT), 50 percent had typical ground-glass opacities or patchy shadowing,
and another 20 percent had atypical imaging abnormalities [40]. Five
patients developed low-grade fever, with or without other typical
symptoms, a few days after diagnosis. In another study of 55 patients
with asymptomatic infection identified through contact tracing, 67
percent had CT evidence of pneumonia on admission; only two patients
developed hypoxia, and all recovered [106].

Clinical manifestations
Initial presentation — Pneumonia appears to be the most frequent
serious manifestation of infection, characterized primarily by fever,
cough, dyspnea, and bilateral infiltrates on chest imaging [50,68,72,73].
However, other features, including upper respiratory tract symptoms,
myalgias, diarrhea, and smell or taste disorders, are also common (table
3). There are no specific clinical features that can yet reliably distinguish
COVID-19 from other viral respiratory infections, although development
of dyspnea several days after the onset of initial symptoms is suggestive.
(See 'Course and complications' below.)
Most studies describing the clinical features of COVID-19 have been
performed in hospitalized populations. In a study describing 138 patients
hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia in Wuhan, the most common
clinical features at the onset of illness were [50]:
●Fever in 99 percent
●Fatigue in 70 percent
●Dry cough in 59 percent
●Anorexia in 40 percent
●Myalgias in 35 percent
●Dyspnea in 31 percent
●Sputum production in 27 percent
Other cohort studies of patients with confirmed COVID-19 have reported
a similar range of clinical findings [50,72,110-112]. However, fever
19
might not be a universal finding on presentation. In one study, fever was
reported in almost all patients, but approximately 20 percent had a very
low grade fever <100.4°F/38°C [72]. In another study of 1099 patients
from Wuhan and other areas in China, fever (defined as an axillary
temperature over 99.5°F/37.5°C) was present in only 44 percent on
admission but was ultimately noted in 89 percent during the
hospitalization [68].
Although not highlighted in the initial cohort studies from China, smell
and taste disorders (eg, anosmia and dysgeusia) have also been reported
as common symptoms in patients with COVID-19 [113-115]. In a survey
of 59 patients with COVID-19 in Italy, 34 percent self-reported either a
smell or taste aberration and 19 percent reported both [114]. In a survey
of 202 outpatients with mild COVID-19 in Italy, 64 percent reported
alterations in smell or taste, and 24 percent reported very severe
alterations; smell or taste changes were reported as the only symptom in 3
percent overall and preceded symptoms in another 12 percent [116].
Whether this finding is a distinguishing feature of COVID-19 is
uncertain.
In addition to respiratory symptoms, gastrointestinal symptoms (eg,
nausea and diarrhea) have also been reported; and in some patients, they
may be the presenting complaint [50,72,112,117]. In a systematic review
of studies reporting on gastrointestinal symptoms in patients with
confirmed COVID-19, the pooled prevalence was 18 percent overall,
with diarrhea, nausea/vomiting, or abdominal pain reported in 13, 10, and
9 percent, respectively [28].
Other reported symptoms have included headache, sore throat, and
rhinorrhea [68,73]. Conjunctivitis has also been described [27].
Dermatologic findings in patients with COVID-19 are not well
characterized. There have been reports of maculopapular, urticarial, and
vesicular eruptions and transient livedo reticularis [118-120]. Reddish-
purple nodules on the distal digits similar in appearance to pernio
(chilblains) have also been described, mainly in children and young
adults with documented or suspected COVID-19, although an association
has not been clearly established [120-123].
Course and complications — As above, symptomatic infection can
range from mild to critical. (See 'Spectrum of illness severity and case
fatality rates' above.)
Some patients with initially nonsevere symptoms may progress over the
course of a week. In one study of 138 patients hospitalized in Wuhan for
20
pneumonia due to SARS-CoV-2, dyspnea developed after a median of
five days since the onset of symptoms, and hospital admission occurred
after a median of seven days of symptoms [50]. In another study, the
median time to dyspnea was eight days [72].
Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a major complication in
patients with severe disease and can manifest shortly after the onset of
dyspnea. In the study of 138 patients described above, ARDS developed
in 20 percent a median of eight days after the onset of symptoms;
mechanical ventilation was implemented in 12.3 percent [50]. In another
study of 201 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, 41 percent
developed ARDS; age greater than 65 years, diabetes mellitus, and
hypertension were each associated with ARDS [95].
Other complications have included arrhythmias, acute cardiac injury, and
shock [50,89,124,125]. In one study, these were reported in 17, 7, and 9
percent, respectively [50]. In a series of 21 severely ill patients admitted
to the ICU in the United States, one-third developed cardiomyopathy
[124]. Thromboembolic complications, including pulmonary embolism
and acute stroke (even in patients younger than 50 years of age without
risk factors), have also been reported [126-131]. (See "Coronavirus
disease 2019 (COVID-19): Critical care issues", section on 'Clinical
features in critically ill patients' and "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-
19): Hypercoagulability", section on 'Clinical features'.)
Some patients with severe COVID-19 have laboratory evidence of an
exuberant inflammatory response, similar to cytokine release syndrome,
with persistent fevers, elevated inflammatory markers (eg, D-dimer,
ferritin), and elevated proinflammatory cytokines; these laboratory
abnormalities have been associated with critical and fatal illnesses
[72,132]. (See 'Risk factors for severe illness' above.)
Guillain-Barré syndrome has also been reported, with onset 5 to 10 days
after initial symptoms [133].
According to the WHO, recovery time appears to be around two weeks
for mild infections and three to six weeks for severe disease [10].
Laboratory findings — Common laboratory findings among
hospitalized patients with COVID-19 include lymphopenia, elevated
aminotransaminase levels, elevated lactate dehydrogenase levels, and
elevated inflammatory markers (eg, ferritin, C-reactive protein, and
erythrocyte sedimentation rate) [50,68,112].

21
Lymphopenia is especially common, even though the total white blood
cell count can vary [50,72,73,134]. As an example, in a series of 393
adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in New York City, 90 percent
had a lymphocyte count <1500/microL; leukocytosis (>10,000/microL)
and leukopenia (<4000/microL) were each reported in approximately 15
percent [112].
On admission, many patients with pneumonia have normal serum
procalcitonin levels; however, in those requiring ICU care, they are more
likely to be elevated [50,72,73].
Several laboratory features, including high D-dimer levels and more
severe lymphopenia, have been associated with mortality [73]. These are
discussed elsewhere. (See 'Risk factors for severe illness' above.)
Imaging findings — Chest radiographs may be normal in early or mild
disease. In a retrospective study of 64 patients in Hong Kong with
documented COVID-19, 20 percent did not have any abnormalities on
chest radiograph at any point during the illness [135]. Common abnormal
radiograph findings were consolidation and ground glass opacities, with
bilateral, peripheral, and lower lung zone distributions; lung involvement
increased over the course of illness, with a peak in severity at 10 to 12
days after symptom onset.
Although chest CT may be more sensitive than chest radiograph and
some chest CT findings may be characteristic of COVID-19, no finding
can completely rule in or rule out the possibility of COVID-19. In the
United States, the American College of Radiology (ACR) recommends
not using chest CT for screening or diagnosis of COVID-19 and
recommends reserving it for hospitalized patients when needed for
management [136]. If CT is performed, the Radiological Society of North
America has categorized features as typical, indeterminate, or atypical for
COVID-19, and has suggested corresponding language for the
interpretation report (table 4) [137].
Chest CT in patients with COVID-19 most commonly demonstrates
ground-glass opacification with or without consolidative abnormalities,
consistent with viral pneumonia [111,138]. Case series have suggested
that chest CT abnormalities are more likely to be bilateral, have a
peripheral distribution, and involve the lower lobes. Less common
findings include pleural thickening, pleural effusion, and
lymphadenopathy.
In a study of 1014 patients in Wuhan who underwent both RT-PCR
testing and chest CT for evaluation of COVID-19, a "positive" chest CT
22
for COVID-19 (as determined by a consensus of two radiologists) had a
sensitivity of 97 percent, using the PCR tests as a reference; however,
specificity was only 25 percent [139]. The low specificity may be related
to other etiologies causing similar CT findings. In another study
comparing chest CTs from 219 patients with COVID-19 in China and
205 patients with other causes of viral pneumonia in the United States,
COVID-19 cases were more likely to have a peripheral distribution (80
versus 57 percent), ground-glass opacities (91 versus 68 percent), fine
reticular opacities (56 versus 22 percent), vascular thickening (59 versus
22 percent), and reverse halo sign (11 versus 1 percent), but less likely to
have a central and peripheral distribution (14 versus 35 percent), air
bronchogram (14 versus 23 percent), pleural thickening (15 versus 33
percent), pleural effusion (4 versus 39 percent), and lymphadenopathy
(2.7 versus 10 percent) [140]. A group of radiologists in that study was
able to distinguish COVID-19 with high specificity but moderate
sensitivity.
In one report of 21 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 who
did not develop severe respiratory distress, lung abnormalities on chest
imaging were most severe approximately 10 days after symptom onset
[110]. However, chest CT abnormalities have also been identified in
patients prior to the development of symptoms and even prior to the
detection of viral RNA from upper respiratory specimens [111,141].
Among patients who clinically improve, resolution of radiographic
abnormalities may lag behind improvements in fever and hypoxia [142].

DIAGNOSIS
Clinical suspicion and criteria for testing — The possibility of
COVID-19 should be considered primarily in patients with new onset
fever and/or respiratory tract symptoms (eg, cough, dyspnea). It should
also be considered in patients with severe lower respiratory tract illness
without any clear cause. Other consistent symptoms include myalgias,
diarrhea, and smell or taste aberrancies (table 3) (see 'Initial
presentation' above). Although these syndromes can occur with other
viral respiratory illnesses, the likelihood of COVID-19 is increased if the
patient:
●Resides in or has traveled within the prior 14 days to a location
where there is community transmission of severe acute
respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2; ie, large
numbers of cases that cannot be linked to specific transmission
chains); in such locations, residence in congregate settings or
association with events where clusters of cases have been

23
 reported is a particularly high risk for exposure.
(See 'Geographic distribution' above and 'Risk of
transmission' above.)
●Has had close contact with a confirmed or suspected case of
COVID-19 in the prior 14 days, including through work in
health care settings. Close contact includes being within
approximately six feet (about two meters) of a patient for a
prolonged period of time while not wearing personal protective
equipment (PPE) or having direct contact with infectious
secretions while not wearing PPE.
Patients with suspected COVID-19 who do not need emergency care
should be encouraged to call prior to presenting to a health care facility
for evaluation. Many patients can be evaluated regarding the need for
testing over the phone. For patients in a health care facility, infection
control measures should be implemented as soon as the possibility of
COVID-19 is suspected. (See "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19):
Infection control in health care and home settings", section on 'Patients
with suspected or confirmed COVID-19'.)
The diagnosis cannot be definitively made without microbiologic testing,
but limited capacity may preclude testing all patients with suspected
COVID-19. Local health departments may have specific criteria for
testing. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) and the Infectious Diseases Society of America have
suggested priorities for testing (table 5); high-priority individuals include
hospitalized patients (especially critically ill patients with unexplained
respiratory illness) and symptomatic individuals who are health care
workers or first responders, work or reside in congregate living settings,
or have risk factors for severe disease [143,144].
Testing criteria suggested by the World Health Organization (WHO) can
be found in its technical guidance online. These are the same criteria used
by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
In many cases, because of the limited availability of testing, the diagnosis
of COVID-19 is made presumptively based on a compatible clinical
presentation in the setting of an exposure risk, particularly when no other
cause of the symptoms is evident. The management of suspected cases
when testing is not available is discussed elsewhere. (See 'COVID-19
testing not readily available' below.)

24
Microbiologic diagnosis
RT-PCR to diagnose current infection — The diagnosis of COVID-19
is made by detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA by reverse transcription
polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) [145]. Various RT-PCR assays are
used around the world; different assays amplify and detect different
regions of the SARS-CoV-2 genome. Common gene targets include
nucleocapsid (N), envelope (E), spike (S), and RNA-dependent RNA
polymerase (RdRp), as well as regions in the first open reading frame
[146].
In the United States, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has
granted emergency use authorization for many different RT-PCR assays
[45]; testing is performed by the CDC, local public health departments,
hospital laboratories, and certain commercial reference laboratories.
Specimen collection — Upper respiratory samples are the primary
specimens for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing. In the United States, the
CDC recommends collection of one of the following specimens [147]:
●Nasopharyngeal swab specimen, collected by a health care
professional
●Oropharyngeal swab specimen, collected by a health care
professional
●Nasal swab specimen from the anterior nares, collected by a
health care professional or by the patient on-site or at home (in
the United States, the FDA has granted emergency use
authorization for a home-collection testing kit that can be mailed
to the laboratory for testing [148])
●Nasal or nasopharyngeal wash/aspirate, collected by a health
care professional
Expectorated sputum should be collected from patients with productive
cough; induction of sputum is not recommended. A lower respiratory
tract aspirate or bronchoalveolar lavage should be collected from patients
who are intubated. Additional information on testing and handling of
clinical specimens can be found on the CDC website.
Infection control practices during specimen collection are discussed
elsewhere. (See "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Infection
control in health care and home settings", section on 'Patients with
suspected or confirmed COVID-19'.)
Interpretation — A positive test for SARS-CoV-2 generally confirms
the diagnosis of COVID-19. However, false-negative tests from upper

25
respiratory specimens have been well documented. If initial testing is
negative but the suspicion for COVID-19 remains and determining the
presence of infection is important for management or infection control,
we suggest repeating the test. In such cases, the WHO also recommends
testing lower respiratory tract specimens, if possible [149]. Infection
control precautions for COVID-19 should continue while repeat
evaluation is being performed. (See "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-
19): Infection control in health care and home settings", section on
'Patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19'.)
In many cases, because of the limited availability of testing and concern
for false-negative results, the diagnosis of COVID-19 is made
presumptively based on a compatible clinical presentation in the setting
of an exposure risk (residence in or travel to an area with widespread
community transmission or known contact). In such cases, particularly
for hospitalized patients who have negative SARS-CoV-2 RNA tests,
characteristic laboratory or imaging findings can further support the
clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 and be reasons to maintain infection
control precautions. Nevertheless, other potential causes of symptoms
should also be considered in patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 RNA
tests.
The interpretation of an inconclusive or indeterminate result depends on
the specific RT-PCR assay performed; the clinician should confer with
the performing laboratory about additional testing.
The accuracy and predictive values of SARS-CoV-2 tests have not been
systematically evaluated, and the sensitivity of testing likely depends on
the precise RT-PCR assay, the type of specimen obtained, the quality of
the specimen, and duration of illness at the time of testing. In a study of
51 patients who were hospitalized in China with fever or acute respiratory
symptoms and ultimately had a positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test
(mainly on throat swabs), 15 patients (29 percent) had a negative initial
test and only were diagnosed by serial testing [150]. In a similar study of
70 patients in Singapore, initial nasopharyngeal testing was negative in 8
patients (11 percent) [151]. In both studies, rare patients were repeatedly
negative and only tested positive after four or more tests.
The likelihood of a positive upper respiratory RT-PCR may be higher
early in the course of illness. One study using a combination of RT-PCR
and an immunoglobulin (Ig)M serologic test to make the diagnosis of
COVID-19 suggested that RT-PCR positivity rates were >90 percent on
days 1 to 3 of illness, <80 percent at day 6, and <50 percent after day 14;
however, these results should be interpreted with caution, since the

26
serologic test used was not validated for detection of acute infection and
IgM tests are generally prone to false positivity [152].
Lower respiratory tract specimens may have higher viral loads and be
more likely to yield positive tests than upper respiratory tract specimens
[26,31]. In a study of 205 patients with COVID-19 who were sampled at
various sites, the highest rates of positive viral RNA tests were reported
from bronchoalveolar lavage (95 percent, 14 of 15 specimens) and
sputum (72 percent, 72 of 104 specimens), compared with oropharyngeal
swab (32 percent, 126 of 398 specimens) [26]. Data from this study
suggested that viral RNA levels are higher and more frequently detected
in nasal compared with oral specimens, although only eight nasal swabs
were tested.
Serology to identify prior infection — Serologic tests detect antibodies
to SARS-CoV-2 in the blood, and those that have been adequately
validated can help identify patients who have had COVID-19. Serologic
tests may also be able to identify some patients with current infection
(particularly those who present late in the course of illness), but they are
less likely to be reactive in the first several days to weeks of infection,
and thus may have less utility for diagnosis in the acute setting [152-154].
In the United States, several serologic tests have been granted emergency
use authorization by the FDA for use by laboratories certified to perform
moderate- and high-complexity tests [45]. The FDA highlights that
serologic tests should not be used as the sole test to diagnose or exclude
active SARS-CoV-2 infection. The sensitivity and specificity of many of
these serologic tests are uncertain; a catalog of these tests can be found
at centerforhealthsecurity.org.
Detectable antibodies generally take several days to weeks to develop. In
a study of 173 patients with COVID-19, the median time from symptom
onset to antibody detection (with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay
[ELISA] that detects antibodies to the receptor-binding domain of the
spike protein) was 12 days for IgM and 14 days for IgG [153]. In the first
week since symptom onset, fewer than 40 percent had detectable
antibodies; by day 15, IgM and IgG were detectable in 94 and 80 percent,
respectively.
The accuracy and time to antibody detection vary with the particular test
used. Studies evaluating the specificity of serologic tests in a broad
population are lacking; in particular, the rate of cross-reactivity with other
coronaviruses is a potential concern, and IgM tests are prone to false-
positive results.

27
Large-scale serologic screening with validated tests may be able to
provide a better sense of the scope of the burden of disease (by
identifying people who were not diagnosed by PCR or who may have had
asymptomatic or subclinical infection) and also identify individuals who
may have immunity to infection; serologic correlates of protective
immunity, however, have not been defined. (See 'Viral shedding and
period of infectivity' above and 'Immunity and risk of reinfection' above.)
Other tests
●Tests that identify SARS-CoV-2 antigen are under
development, although rapid antigen tests for respiratory
pathogens are typically less sensitive than PCR in detecting viral
nucleic acid (see "Diagnosis of seasonal influenza in adults",
section on 'Rapid antigen tests'). Several manufacturers are
selling rapid, point-of-care tests based on antigen testing or
antibody detection, but the WHO does not recommend these
tests because of accuracy concerns in the absence of validation
studies [155].
●For safety reasons, specimens from a patient with suspected or
documented COVID-19 should not be submitted for viral
culture.
Testing for other pathogens — If influenza is circulating in the
community, it is reasonable to also test for influenza when testing for
SARS-CoV-2, as this could have management implications.
However, detection of another viral (or bacterial) pathogen does not
necessarily rule out SARS-CoV-2 in locations where there is widespread
transmission. Coinfection with SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory
viruses, including influenza, has been described, but the reported
frequency is variable [77,156-158].
MANAGEMENT Home management is appropriate for patients with
mild infection (eg, fever, cough, and/or myalgias without dyspnea) or
asymptomatic infection who can be adequately isolated in the outpatient
setting. Management of such patients should focus on prevention of
transmission to others and monitoring for clinical deterioration, which
should prompt hospitalization. Management of patients who warrant
hospitalization consists of ensuring appropriate infection control and
supportive care (including oxygenation and potentially ventilatory
support for acute respiratory distress syndrome). Investigational
approaches are also being evaluated, and should be used in the setting of

28
a clinical trial, whenever available. Management of COVID-19 is
discussed in detail elsewhere:
●(See "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Management in
hospitalized adults".)
●(See "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Critical care
issues".)

PREVENTION
Infection control in the health care setting — In locations where
community transmission is widespread, preventive strategies for all
individuals in a health care setting are warranted to reduce potential
exposures. Additional measures are warranted for patients with suspected
or confirmed COVID-19. Infection control in the health care setting is
discussed in detail elsewhere. (See "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-
19): Infection control in health care and home settings", section on
'Infection control in the health care setting'.)
Preventing exposure in the community — If community transmission
of SARS-CoV-2 is present, residents should be encouraged to practice
social distancing by staying home as much as possible and maintaining
six feet (two meters) distance from others when they have to leave home.
In particular, individuals should avoid crowds and close contact with ill
individuals.
The following general measures are additionally recommended to reduce
transmission of infection:
●Diligent hand washing, particularly after touching surfaces in
public. Use of hand sanitizer that contains at least 60 percent
alcohol is a reasonable alternative if the hands are not visibly
dirty.
●Respiratory hygiene (eg, covering the cough or sneeze).
●Avoiding touching the face (in particular eyes, nose, and
mouth). The American Academy of Ophthalmology suggests
that people not wear contact lenses, because they make people
touch their eyes more frequently [159].
●Cleaning and disinfecting objects and surfaces that are
frequently touched. The CDC has issued guidance on
disinfection in the home setting; a list of EPA-registered
products can be found here.

29
These measures should be followed by all individuals, but should be
emphasized for older adults and individuals with chronic medical
conditions, in particular.
For people without respiratory symptoms, the WHO does not recommend
wearing a medical mask in the community, since it does not decrease the
importance of other general measures to prevent infection and may result
in unnecessary cost and supply problems; the WHO also emphasizes that
medical masks should be prioritized for health care workers [160].
Recommendations on use of masks by healthy members of the
community vary by country [161].
In the United States, the CDC updated its recommendations in early April
to advise individuals to wear a cloth face covering (eg, homemade masks
or bandanas) when in public settings where social distancing is difficult
to achieve, especially in areas with substantial community transmission
[162]. Individuals should be counseled to avoid touching the eyes, nose,
and mouth when removing the covering, practice hand hygiene after
handling it, and launder it routinely. Clinicians should emphasize that the
face covering does not diminish the importance of other preventive
measures, such as social distancing and hand hygiene. The rationale for
the face covering is primarily to contain secretions of and prevent
transmission from individuals who have asymptomatic or
presymptomatic infection. The CDC also reiterates that the face covering
recommendation does not include medical masks, which should be
reserved for health care workers.
Individuals who are caring for patients with suspected or documented
COVID-19 at home should also wear a face cover when in the same room
as that patient (if the patient cannot wear a face cover).
Individuals who develop an acute respiratory illness (eg, with fever
and/or respiratory symptoms) should be encouraged to self-isolate at
home for the duration of the illness and wear a face cover if they have to
be around other people. Some may warrant evaluation for COVID-19.
(See 'Clinical suspicion and criteria for testing' above.)
The efficacy of masks in containing SARS-CoV-2 is uncertain.
(See "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Infection control in health
care and home settings", section on 'Patients with suspected or confirmed
COVID-19'.)
The CDC has included recommended measures to prevent spread in the
community on its website.

30
Managing asymptomatic individuals with potential exposure — In
areas where SARS-CoV-2 is prevalent, all residents should be
encouraged to stay alert for symptoms and practice social distancing by
staying home as much as possible and maintaining six feet (two meters)
distance from others when they have to leave the home.
In the United States, the CDC suggests this approach for all residents
[163]. For those returning from international travel (including cruise ship
travel) and those who have had close contact with a patient with
suspected or confirmed COVID-19 (including during the 48 hours prior
to that patient developing symptoms), the CDC also suggests [163,164]:
●Self-quarantine at home for 14 days following the last
exposure, with maintenance of at least six feet (two meters)
from others at all times.
●Avoiding contact with individuals at high risk for severe
illness (unless they are household members with the same
exposure). (See 'Risk factors for severe illness' above.)
●Twice-daily temperature checks with monitoring for fever,
cough, or dyspnea. If they develop such clinical manifestations,
they should continue to stay at home away from other household
members and contact their medical providers. (See "Coronavirus
disease 2019 (COVID-19): Outpatient management in adults",
section on 'Outpatient management and counseling for all
patients'.)
For asymptomatic individuals who are critical infrastructure workers, the
CDC has provided guidance on returning to work during the 14-day post-
exposure period with symptom and temperature monitoring, mask use,
social distancing, and workspace disinfection [165].
Management of health care workers with a documented exposure is
discussed in detail elsewhere. (See "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-
19): Infection control in health care and home settings", section on
'Return to work for health care workers'.)
Global public health measures — On January 30, 2020, the WHO
declared the COVID-19 outbreak a public health emergency of
international concern and, in March 2020, began to characterize it as a
pandemic in order to emphasize the gravity of the situation and urge all
countries to take action in detecting infection and preventing spread. The
WHO has indicated three priorities for countries: protecting health
workers, engaging communities to protect those at highest risk of severe

31
disease (eg, older adults and those with medical comorbidities), and
supporting vulnerable countries in containing infection [10].
The WHO does not recommend international travel restrictions but does
acknowledge that movement restriction may be temporarily useful in
some settings. The WHO advises exit screening for international travelers
from areas with ongoing transmission of COVID-19 virus to identify
individuals with fever, cough, or potential high-risk exposure [166,167].
Many countries also perform entry screening (eg, temperature,
assessment for signs and symptoms). More detailed travel information is
available on the WHO website.
In the United States, the CDC currently recommends that individuals
avoid all nonessential international travel and nonessential travel
from some domestic locations [168]. Because risk of travel changes
rapidly, travelers should check United States government websites for
possible restrictions.
Other public health measures that have been variably employed in
different countries include social distancing and stay-at-home ordinances,
aggressive contact tracing and quarantine, restricting traffic to or from
areas of very high prevalence, and policies on face masks or coverings in
public. In an epidemiologic study, a number of interventions
(implementation of travel restrictions in and around Wuhan with home
quarantine and compulsory mask-wearing in public, followed by
centralized quarantine for all cases and contacts, followed by proactive
symptom screening for all residents) were associated with progressive
reductions in the incidence of confirmed cases in Wuhan and a decrease
in the effective reproduction number (ie, the average number of
secondary cases for each case in a population made up of both susceptible
and nonsusceptible individuals) from >3 prior to the interventions to 0.3
after them [169].

Investigational approaches
Vaccines — Numerous vaccine candidates are being evaluated for
prevention of COVID-19 [170]. The first vaccine to undergo preliminary
study in humans in the United States uses a messenger RNA platform to
result in expression of the viral spike protein in order to induce an
immune response [171].
There is also interest in Bacille-Calmette-Guerin (BCG) immunization for
prevention of COVID-19, and clinical trials are underway to evaluate its
use among health care workers [172]. Studies have suggested that,
although its primary purpose is prevention of tuberculosis, BCG
32
immunization induces a nonspecific immune response that may have
protective effects against non-mycobacterial, including viral, infections
[173,174]. Any impact of BCG immunization on COVID-19 specifically
is unknown. The WHO recommends BCG vaccination not be used for
prevention or lessening the severity of COVID-19, pending further data
[175].
Post-exposure prophylaxis — Clinical trials are also being conducted in
the United States and elsewhere to evaluate the safety and efficacy of
post-exposure drug prophylaxis against COVID-19 [176,177]. No agent
is known to be effective in preventing infection; we suggest post-
exposure prophylaxis not be attempted outside a clinical trial.

SPECIAL SITUATIONS
Pregnant and breastfeeding women — The general approach to
prevention, evaluation, diagnosis, and treatment of pregnant women with
suspected COVID-19 is largely similar to that in nonpregnant individuals.
Issues specific to pregnant and breastfeeding women are discussed
elsewhere. (See "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Pregnancy
issues".)
Children — Symptomatic infection in children appears to be relatively
uncommon; when it occurs, it is usually mild, although severe cases have
been reported [98-101]. Details of COVID-19 in children are discussed
elsewhere. (See "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Considerations
in children".)
COVID-19 testing not readily available — In some cases, testing for
COVID-19 may not be accessible, particularly for individuals who have a
compatible but mild illness that does not warrant hospitalization and do
not have a known COVID-19 exposure or high-risk travel history.
In the United States, there is limited official guidance for this situation,
and the approach may depend on the prevalence of COVID-19 in the
area. If the clinician has sufficient concern for possible COVID-19 (eg,
there is community transmission and there is no other apparent cause for
the symptoms), it is reasonable to assume the patient had COVID-19 and
advise the patient to self-isolate at home (if hospitalization is not
warranted) and alert the clinician about worsening symptoms. Outpatient
management of COVID-19 is discussed).
SOCIETY GUIDELINE LINKS to society and government-sponsored
guidelines from selected countries and regions around the world are
provided separately."Society guideline links: Coronavirus disease 2019

33
(COVID-19) – Guidelines for specialty care" and "Society guideline
links: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) – Resources for patients".)

INFORMATION FOR PATIENTS UpTo Date offers two types of

patient education materials, "The Basics" and "Beyond the Basics." The
Basics patient education pieces are written in plain language, at the 5th to
6th grade reading level, and they answer the four or five key questions a
patient might have about a given condition. These articles are best for
patients who want a general overview and who prefer short, easy-to-read
materials. Beyond the Basics patient education pieces are longer, more
sophisticated, and more detailed. These articles are written at the 10 th to
12th grade reading level and are best for patients who want in-depth
information and are comfortable with some medical jargon.
Here are the patient education articles that are relevant to this topic. We
encourage you to print or e-mail these topics to your patients. (You can
also locate patient education articles on a variety of subjects by searching
on "patient info" and the keyword(s) of interest.)
●Basics topics (see "Patient education: Coronavirus disease
2019 (COVID-19) overview (The Basics)" and "Patient
education: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and
pregnancy (The Basics)" and "Patient education: Coronavirus
disease 2019 (COVID-19) and children (The Basics)")

34
 CHAPTER-2
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF
COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN
INDIA

35
Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in India

The economic impact of the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic in

India has been hugely disruptive. World Bank and credit rating
agencies have downgraded India's growth for fiscal year 2021 with the
lowest figures India has seen in three decades since India's economic
liberalization in the 1990s.[1][2] The former Chief Economic Advisor to
the Government of India has said that India should prepare for a negative
growth rate in FY21 and that the country would need
a ₹70 lakh crore (US$980 billion) stimulus to overcome the
contraction.[3] However, the International Monetary Fund projection for
India for the Financial Year 2021-22 of 1.9% GDP growth is the highest
among G-20 nations.[4] Within a month unemployment rose from 6.7% on
15 March to 26% on 19 April.[5] During the lockdown, an estimated
140 million (140 million) people lost employment.[5] More than 45% of
households across the nation have reported an income drop as compared
to the previous year.[6]
The Indian economy is expected to lose
over ₹32,000 crore (US$4.5 billion) every day during the first 21-days of
complete lockdown which was declared following the coronavirus
outbreak.[7][8] Under complete lockdown less than a quarter of India's
$2.8 trillion economy is functional.[9] Up to 53% of businesses in the
country will be significantly affected.[10] Supply chains have been put
under stress with the lockdown restrictions in place; initially there was a
lack of clarity in streamlining what is an "essential" and what
isn't.[11] Those in the informal sectors and daily wage groups are the most
at risk.[12] A large number of farmers around the country who
grow perishables are also facing uncertainty.[11] Various businesses such
as hotels and airlines are cutting salaries and laying off employees.[13]
Major companies in India such as Larsen and Toubro, Bharat
Forge, UltraTech Cement, Grasim Industries, Aditya Birla
Group and Tata Motors have temporarily suspended or significantly
reduced operations. Young startups have been impacted as funding has
fallen.[14][15] Fast-moving consumer goods companies in the country have
significantly reduced operations and are focusing on essentials. Some
defense deals have been affected/delayed due to the pandemic such as the
delivery of Dassault Rafale fighter jets. Stock markets in India posted
their worst loses in history on 23 March 2020.[16] However, on 25 March,

36
one day after a complete 21-day lockdown was announced by the Prime
Minister, SENSEX and NIFTY posted their biggest gains in 11 years,
adding a value of ₹4.7 lakh crore (US$66 billion) crore to investor
wealth.[17]
The Government of India has announced a variety of measures to tackle
the situation, from food security and extra funds for healthcare, to sector
related incentives and tax deadline extensions. On 27 March the Reserve
Bank of India also announced a number of measures which would make
available ₹374,000 crore (US$52 billion) to the country's financial
system. On 29 March the government allowed the movement of all
essential as well as non-essential goods during the lockdown.[18] On 3
April the central government released more funds to the states for
tackling the coronavirus totaling to ₹28,379 crore (US$4.0 billion).
The World Bank and Asian Development Bank have approved support to
India to tackle the coronavirus pandemic.
On 14 April 2020, the Prime Minister of India extended the lockdown to
3 May. A new set of guidelines for the calibrated opening of the economy
and relaxation of the lockdown were also set in place which would take
effect from 20 April.[19] On 17 April, the RBI Governor announced more
measures to counter the economic impact of the pandemic
including ₹50,000 crore (US$7.0 billion) special finance
to NABARD, SIDBI, and NHB.[20] On 18 April, to protect Indian
companies during the pandemic, the government changed India's foreign
direct investment policy. The Department of Military Affairs has put on
hold all capital acquisitions for the beginning of the financial year.
The Press Information Bureau brought out a fact check that stories about
a financial emergency being imposed in India are fake.[21] A financial
emergency has never been imposed in the history of India as yet.[22] On 4
April, former RBI chief Raghuram Rajan said that the coronavirus
pandemic in India may just be the "greatest emergency since
Independence".[23] On 28 April, former CEA Arvind Subramanian said
that India would need a ₹720 lakh crore (US$10 trillion) stimulus to
overcome the contraction caused due to the pandemic.[24]

24 March: Jaan hai toh jahaan hai (only if there is life there will be
livelihood)[edit]
Prime Minister Modi announced the first 21 days of India's lockdown on
24 March. During this address to the nation he had said, "Jaan Hai Toh
Jahaan Hai (only if there is life there will be livelihood)".[27][28]

37
11 April: Jaan bhi jahaan bhi (both lives and livelihood matter
equally)[edit]
On 11 April, in a meeting with the Chief Minister's of India, he said "Our
mantra earlier was jaan hai toh jahaan hai but now it is jaan bhi jahaan
bhi (both, lives and livelihood matter equally)."[27][29] On 14 April,
another address to the nation was made by Modi in which he extended the
lockdown, with adjustments, to 3 May.[30]

Government actions
Timeline[edit]

 On 21 March 2020, the Union cabinet approved incentives

worth ₹40,995 crore (US$5.7 billion) for electronic
manufacturing.[31][32]

Various state governments have announced financial assistance for the

poor in the unorganised sector. On 21 March the Uttar Pradesh
government decided to give a direct money transfer of ₹1,000 (US$14) to
all daily wage laborers in the state[33] and the following
day Punjab announced ₹3,000 (US$42) each for all registered
construction workers in state.[34] On 23 March it was announced that
Haryana labourers, street vendors and rickshaw pullers will be provided
an assistance of ₹1,000 per week directly deposited into their bank
accounts. Below Poverty Line families will be provided rations (including
rice, wheat, mustard oil, sugar) free of cost for the month of April.[35]

 On 24 March, in his address to the nation, the Prime Minister

announced a ₹15,000 crore (US$2.1 billion) fund for the healthcare
sector.[36]
 On 24 March at 2:30 pm, the Finance Minister made a number of
announcements related to the economy such as extending last dates
for filing GST returns and income tax returns.[37] The due dates for the
Sabka Vishwas (Legacy Dispute Resolution) Scheme 2019, customs
clearances and for compliance matters under the Customs Act and
associated laws has been extended to June 2020.[38]
 On 25 March the Modi government announced the world's
largest food security scheme for 800 million (800,000,000 people)
across the country.[39] Cabinet Minister Prakash Javadekar made the
announcement in a press conference that the ration would be 7 kg
every month (which includes wheat at a cost of ₹2 (2.8¢ US) per kg
and rice at ₹3 (4.2¢ US) per kg.)[39]

38
 On 25 March the Uttar Pradesh government banned the manufacture
and sale of pan masala, stating in the order that "Spitting pan masala
can help in spreading Covid-19".[40] Following this, other states such
as Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat also banned spitting in
public places.[41][42][43]
 On 26 March the Finance Minister announced a number of economic
relief measures for the poor. ₹170,000 crore (US$24 billion) will fund
the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana which will provide both
cash transfer and food security; with the aim that no one goes hungry
amidst the lockdown.[44] Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana beneficiaries
will get free cylinders for at least three months. This will benefit over
80 million Below Poverty Line families.[44][45] The government will
expedite payment of the first instalment (₹2,000) due in 2020–21 in
April itself under the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-
KISAN). For the organised sector worker, the government will pay
the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) contributions of both sides for
8 million employees of small companies who earn up to ₹15,000 a
month.The raise in the threshold from ₹100,000 to ₹10 million for
triggering insolvency proceedings under the Insolvency and
Bankruptcy Code (IBC) will help MSMEs. State governments were
given various instructions and guidelines such as diverting district
mineral funds for health needs relating to the pandemic.[44]
 On 26 March India participated in the virtual 'Extraordinary G20
Leaders’ Summit'. The G20 nations decided to inject over $5 trillion
into the global economy to counteract the pandemic's impacts. They
agreed to work together, to strengthen the World Health Organisation,
develop a vaccine and make it available. They decided to share timely
and transparent information, materials for research and development
and data. Besides expanding manufacturing capacity for medical
supplies, they agreed to ensure smooth flows of critical supplies.[46][47]
 On 27 March the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta
Das made a number of announcements including EMIs being put on
hold for three months and reducing Repo Rates. Other measures
introduced will make available a total ₹374,000 crore (US$52 billion)
to the country's financial system.[48] Delhi government announced that
from the 28th they will be providing free food to 400,000 every
day.[49] Over 500 hunger relief centres have been set by the Delhi
government.[50]
 On 27 March the Rajasthan government has decided to deduct the
salaries of its officers and employees from one to five days.[51]
 On 28 March the Prime Minister launched a new fund called PM
CARES fund for combating such situations.[52]

39
 On 30 March it was announced that the UP government would
transfer ₹611 crore (US$86 million) to 2715,000 workers
under MNREGA scheme.[53]
 On 1 April the RBI announced more measures to deal with the
economic fallout of COVID-19.[54] WMA and short-term liquidity has
been increased to provide relief to state governments; exporters have
also been granted some relief in the form of relaxed repatriation
limits.[54]
 On 2 April the World Bank approved $1 bn emergency financing for
India to tackle coronavirus labelled 'India COVID-19 Emergency
Response and Health Systems Preparedness Project'.[55][56][57]
 On 3 April the central government
released ₹17,287 crore (US$2.4 billion) to different states to help
combat coronavirus. The Ministry of Home
Affairs approved ₹11,092 crore (US$1.6 billion) for states as relief
under the State Disaster Risk Management Fund. [58]
 On 6 April a 30% salary cut for one year was announced for the
President, Vice President, Prime Minister, Governors, Members of
Parliament and Ministers.[59][60] It was also decided to suspend
the MPLADS for two years and transfer the money,
about ₹7,900 crore (US$1.1 billion), into the Consolidated Fund of
India.[60]
 On 8 April the Department of Expenditure, Finance Ministry, has
allowed states net market borrowings
of ₹320,481 crore (US$45 billion) between April to
December.[61][62] ₹3,000 crore (US$420 million) of funds under
the PM Garib Kalyan Yojana have been given to over 20 million
workers engaged in construction work by the various states and
UTs.[63][64] To provide relief to tax payers amid the covid-19 crisis, the
government will release ₹18,000 crore (US$2.5 billion).[65]
 On 10 April the Asian Development Bank (ADB) assured India
of ₹15,800 crore (US$2.2 billion) assistance in the COVID-19
pandemic fight.[66]
 On 14 April at 10 am the Prime Minister made a public speech in
which he announced the extension of the nationwide lockdown, as
well as a calibrated reopening. "From the economy's point of view, the
lockdown undoubtedly looks costly right now, but compared to the
lives of Indian citizens, it is nothing" (translation, original in
Hindi).[67]
 On 15 April as part of the new lockdown 2.0 guidelines, the Ministry
of Home Affairs announced, among other things, that all agricultural
and horticultural activities will remain fully functional.[68] Information

40
 technology companies can function with 50% staff.[69] The partial lift
of restrictions will take place from 20 April.[70]
 On 17 April, RBI announced more measures to counter the economic
impact of the pandemic including ₹50,000 crore (US$7.0 billion)
special finance to NABARD, SIDBI, and NHB.[20] Providing more
relief to state governments, WMA limits have been increased by 60
per cent.[20]
 On 18 April, India changed its FDI policy to protect Indian
companies from "opportunistic acquisitions" during the COVID-19
pandemic.[71][72]
"(If) we don't run our economy now, we'll be in financial crisis after we
come out of Corona crisis."
Maharashtra Chief Minister, 19 April 2020, [73]

 On 20 April limited economic activity is expected to resume outside

of the COVID-19 containment zones.[74] During this selective
relaxation of restrictions, numerous activities will remain prohibited
such as educational institutions, passenger movement by trains,
cinema halls, malls, shopping complexes and gymnasiums.[75]
 On 21 April it was announced that a team from "The Technology
Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council" (TIFAC)" under
the Department of Science and Technology are preparing a white
paper on the revival of the India economy. [76] TIFAC has a "mandate
to think for the future".[76]
 On 23 April The Kerala government has decided to defer one month's
salaries of employees. The government will reduce the salaries of all
categories of government employees including teachers, university
officers and employees in all PSUs, equivalent to a six days' worth
salaries every month.[77][78]
 On 23–24 April banks from the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation (SCO) agreed upon a "joint roadmap for economic
recovery".[79]
 On 25 April the Ministry of Home Affairs allowed the re-opening of
some shops under certain restrictions.[80] As per the "national
directives for COVID-19 management", liquor and other shops will
remain closed.[81] These relaxations do not apply to
hotspots.[82] (Official Communication)
 On 28 April the ADB approved a ₹10,500 crore (US$1.5 billion) loan
to India to combat the pandemic.[83]
 On 4 May India goes into its third stage of lockdown. The country has
been divided into various zones (green, orange, red, containment) and
as per the zone the economy has been opened up.[84]
41
COVID-19 Economic Response Task Force
The formation of the COVID-19 Economic Response Task Force was
announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on 19 March 2020 during
his live address to the nation.[85][86][87] The task force is led by the finance
minister Nirmala Sitharaman.[88] Though not formally constituted or no
official date for relief packages being made, the consultation process with
concerned parties has begun immediately.[89][90] There were concerns as to
where will the government find the funds to fight coronavirus and keep
the economy alive.[91] Experts say the task force will have to look in
to NPA norms, tax payments and income support to those in the
unorganised sectors.[92] A direct cash transfer scheme for the most
vulnerable is also being considered, as has happened in other
countries.[93] The Ministry of Finance immediately started consultations
with the RBI and ministries to take stock of most affected sectors like
aviation, hospitality, and MSMEs.[90] On 24 March the Finance Minister
made a number of announcements related to the economy with regard to
the impact of COVID-19.[38] On 26 March the Finance Minister
announced more economic relief measures for the poor among other
announcements.[44]

Change in FDI rules

On 18 April 2020, India changed its foreign direct investment (FDI)
policy to curb "'opportunistic takeovers/acquisitions' of Indian companies
due to the current pandemic", according to the Department for Promotion
of Industry and Internal Trade.[71] With the fall in global share prices,
there is concern that China may take advantage of the situation, leading to
hostile takeovers.[94][95] While the new FDI policy does not restrict
markets, the policy ensures that all FDI from countries that share a land
border with India will now be under scrutiny of the Ministry of
Commerce and Industry.[96][72][97]

Alternative to China
The Government of India is aiming to attract companies that wish to
move out of China or are looking for an alternative to China.[98][99] The
PMs office is conveying to the government central and state machinery to
ready pro-investment strategies.[98][100] A total of at least 461,589 hectares
has been earmarked for the purpose, as reported by Economic
Times.[101][102][103]

42
Economic situation
A newspaper vendor in Tamil Nadu, India wearing goggles, safety mask
and hand gloves.
In India up to 53% of businesses have specified a certain amount of
impact of shutdowns caused due to COVID-19 on operations
(FICCI survey).[10] Various business such as hotels and airlines are
cutting salaries and laying off employees.[13] By 24 April
the Unemployment Rate had increased nearly 19% within a month,
reaching 26% unemployment across India, according to the "Centre for
Monitoring Indian Economy".[5] Around 140,000,000 Indian lost
employment in the lockdown. More than 45% households across the
nation have reported an income drop as compared to the previous
year.[104][6]
Live events industry has seen an estimated loss
of ₹3,000 crore (US$420 million).[13] A number of young startups have
been impacted as funding has fallen.[14] A DataLabs report shows a 45%
decrease in the total growth-stage funding (Series A round) as compared
to Q4 2019.[15] According to a KPMG report venture capital in Indian
startups has fallen over 50% in Q1 2020 from Q4 2019.[105]
On 4 April, former Reserve Bank of India chief Raghuram Rajan said that
the coronavirus pandemic in India may just be the "greatest emergency
since Independence".[23] The former Chief Economic Advisor to the
Government of India has said that India should prepare for a negative
growth rate in FY21 and that India would need
a ₹720 lakh crore (US$10 trillion) stimulus to overcome the
contraction.[3]
Numerous companies are carrying out measures within their companies
to ensure that staff anxiety is kept at a minimum. Hero MotoCorp has
been conducting video townhall meetings, Tata Group has set up a task
force to make working from home more effective and the taskforce
at Siemens also reports on the worldwide situation of the COVID-19
pandemic.[106]
Night lights and economic activity are connected. In Delhi, night
light radiance fell 37.2% compared to 1–31 March 2019. This was the
biggest fall for any metro in India. Bangalore fell 32% while Mumbai
dropped by 29%.[107]

43
Agriculture
Due to logistical problems following the lockdown tea estates were
unable to harvest the first flush. The impact of this on the second flush is
not known. The entire Darjeeling tea based tea industry will see
significant fall in revenue.[108] Tea exports could drop up to 8% as a
result.[109]
From 20 April, under the new lockdown guidelines to reopen the
economy and relax the lockdown, agricultural businesses such as dairy,
tea, coffee and rubber plantations, as well as associated shops and
industries, will reopen.[70]

Manufacturing
Major companies in India such as Larsen and Toubro, Bharat
Forge, UltraTech Cement, Grasim Industries, the fashion and retail wing
of Aditya Birla Group, Tata Motors and Thermax have temporarily
suspended or significantly reduced operations in a number of
manufacturing facilities and factories across the
country. iPhone producing companies in India have also suspended a
majority of operations. Nearly all two-wheeler and four-wheeler
companies have put a stop to production till further notice. Many
companies have decided to remain closed till at least 31 March such
as Cummins which has temporarily shut its offices across
Maharashtra.[110] Hindustan Unilever, ITC and Dabur India have shut
manufacturing facilities except for factories producing
essentials.[111] Foxconn and Wistron Corp, iPhone producers, have
suspended production following the 21 days lockdown orders.[112]

E-commerce
In the third week of March, Amazon announced that it would stop sale of
non-essential items in India so that it can focus on essential
needs.[113] Amazon has followed the same strategy in Italy and
France.[113] On 25 March, Walmart-owned Flipkart temporarily
suspended some of its services on its e-commerce platform and will only
be selling and distributing essentials.[114] BigBasket and Grofers also run
restricted services, facing disruptions in services due to the
lockdown.[115] Delhi Police began issuing delivery agents curfew passes
to make it easier for them to keep the supply chain open.[116] E-commerce
companies also look for legal clarity related to what are "essentials".[117]

44
On 20 April, Telangana extended the lockdown to 7
May. Swiggy and Zomato will not be allowed to function during this
extension period.[118]

Defence
The Department of Military Affairs led by the Chief of Defence Staff has
postponed all capital acquisitions until the coronavirus pandemic recedes.
No new major defense deals will be made in the beginning of the
financial year 2020–21.[119] While the delivery of S-400 missile
systems won't be affected,[120] the delivery of Rafale fighter jets might
be.[121]

Stock markets
On 23 March 2020, stock markets in India post worst losses in
history.[16] SENSEX fell 4000 points (13.15%) and NSE NIFTY fell 1150
points (12.98%).[122] However, on 25 March, one day after a complete 21-
day lock-down was announced by the Prime Minister, SENSEX posted
its biggest gains in 11 years, adding a value
of ₹4.7 lakh crore (US$66 billion) crore for investors.[17][123] On 8 April,
following positive indication from the Wall Street that the pandemic may
have reached its peak in the US, the stock markets in India rose steeply
once again.[124][125] By 29 April, Nifty held the 9500 mark.[126]

Estimate of economic losses

The Indian economy is expected to lose
over ₹32,000 crore (US$4.5 billion) every day during the first 21 days of
the lockdown, according to Acuité Ratings, a RBI approved credit rating
agency.[7] Barclays said the cost of the first 21 days of shutdown as well
as the previous two shorter ones will be total to
around ₹8.5 lakh crore (US$120 billion).[111][8]
On 27 March, Moody's Investors Service downgraded its estimate of
India's GDP growth for 2020 from 5.3% to 2.5%.[127] Fitch
Ratings revised its estimate for India's growth to 2%. India Ratings &
Research also downgraded the FY21 estimate to 3.6%.[1] On 12 April
2020, a World Bank report focusing on South Asia said that India's
economy is expected to grow 1.5% to 2.8% for FY21.[1] This will be the
lowest growth for India in 30 years.[2] The World Bank report said that
the pandemic has "magnified pre-existing risks to India's economic
outlook".[1] Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) have estimated that
45
India's GDP for FY21 will be between 0.9% and 1.5%.[128] On 28 April
the former Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India has said
that India should prepare for a negative growth rate in FY21.[3]
Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has sought an economic fiscal
stimulus package of 1% of India's GDP amounting
to ₹2 lakh crore (US$28 billion).[129] The fiscal package and fiscal
policies approach is being compared to what has happened in other
countries such as Germany, Brazil and Japan.[130] Jefferies Group said that
the government can spend ₹1.3 lakh crore (US$18 billion) to fight the
impact of coronavirus.[131] Bloomberg's economists say at
least ₹2.15 lakh crore (US$30 billion) needs to be spent.[131] Former
CEA Arvind Subramanian said that India would need
a ₹720 lakh crore (US$10 trillion) stimulus.[3]
It is estimated that the loss to the tourism industry will
be ₹15,000 crore (US$2.1 billion) for March and April
alone. CII, ASSOCHAM and FAITH estimate that a huge chunk of the
workforce involved with tourism in the country faces unemployment.[132]

Concerns and commentary

There are concerns as to where will the government find the funds to
fight coronavirus and keep the economy alive.[91] Subramanian
Swamy tweeted on 21 March 2020 asking whether declaration of an
financial emergency was inevitable (in the light of the situation because
of the coronavirus pandemic).[22]

Economic danger versus health risk

In March, Adar Poonawalla, CEO of Serum Institute of India said that
"the economic danger of the outbreak was exponentially greater than its
health risks".[133] On 29 April NR Narayana Murthy said that if the
lockdown continues, India may see more death due to hunger than from
the pandemic.[134]

Supply chains and logistics

Following the lockdown certain essential supply chains broke
down.[135] Britannia Industries, supporting the lockdown, urged the
government to ensure inter-state movement of the raw material for the
food processing industry was not hampered. The Managing director of
Britannia stated that "if even one link in the supply chain is broken, the
country could run out of stocks of packaged food in the next 7-10

46
days."[136] Although inter-state travel has been banned, it doesn't apply to
essentials, and in places like Maharashtra the state police is yet to
streamline the process, causing a disruption to supply chains.[137] Vidya
Krishnan writes in The Atlantic that due to the lockdown even movement
of medical goods were affected.[138]
On 29 March the government allowed the movement of all essential as
well as non-essential goods across the country during
the lockdown.[18] The milk and newspaper supply chains are also allowed
to function.[18]

Salaries
The Prime Minister on 19 March urged businesses and high income
segments of society to take care of the economic needs of all those who
provide them services.[139] During the live telecast, he also appealed to
families to not cut the pay of domestic help.[140] Following the lockdown,
the government circulated advisories[141] and directives ordering
companies to keep paying employees among other
things.[142][143] The Ministry of Finance issued an Office Memorandum on
23 March 2020:[143][144]
[...] wherever such contractual, the casual and outsourced staff of
Ministries/Departments and other organization of Government of India is
required to stay at home in view of lockdown order regarding COVID-19
prevention [...] they shall be treated as "on duty" during such period of
absence and necessary pay/wages would be paid accordingly. [...]
These instructions shall apply until April 30, 2020.
— Addt Sect, Dept of Expenditure, Ministry of Finance
A few days later worries grew as to how wages could continue being paid
and if the directive was legal or not.[142] There were also concerns raised
by migrant workers regarding implementation of the orders as many
daily-wagers have no records of being sacked or salaries being paid or
deducted; the concerns also expand to uncertainty in the government's
ability to enforce minimum wages under a lockdown when it couldn't
even do so during normal times.[145]

Migrant workers and labour force

Due to the lockdown, there suddenly was no work for many daily
workers (the urban poor and migrant labourers). At the same time the
lockdown restrictions put a stop on the movement of buses and trains.

47
Large numbers of migrant workers ended up walking back to there
villages, some journeys hundreds of kilometers long. Commentators
commented on how the whole purpose of social distancing was
defeated.[146][138]
Soon after a central government directive in late March, state
governments set up 21,000 camps to house over 660,000 migrants and
stop the exodus.[147] Delhi government is providing free food to 400,000
people every day.[148] Over 500 hunger relief centres have been set by the
Delhi government.[50]
By 5 April, 7,500,000 people were being provided food across the
country in government and NGO food camps.[149] To cater to the needs of
the migrants and prevent them from leaving the camps, the government
of Kerala changed the food being provided by adding north Indian dishes
to the menu, providing Carrom Boards and recharge facilities for phones,
as well as provide other medical essentials such as masks, sanitizers and
medicines.[150]

Lockdown extension
On 8 April 2020, the managing director of Bajaj Auto, Rajiv Bajaj, wrote
in an opinion piece in the Economic Times that the "lockdown makes
India weak rather than stronger in combating the epidemic," and that the
current "arbitrary" lockdown was totally unsustainable and a
"recalibration" is needed.[151][152] Rajiv Bajaj writes that "India may have
to sell itself out of the coronavirus crisis".[153]
Following the extension of the lockdown on 14 April, members of the
opposition said that there was no mention of a financial package or any
steps whatsoever to revive the economy.[154] Modi however did talk about
a re-calibrated opening of the economy.[67]
Telangana was the first state to extend the lockdown to 7 May, beyond
the national lockdown date of 3 May. [118]

Suspension of MPLADS
The Modi government, in view of the coronavirus pandemic,
suspended Members of Parliament Local Area Development
Scheme (MPLADS) for two years. This action has been called
problematic in many ways, including causing a centralisation of power,
being anti-federal in nature, and having an affect on local level
development and MP influence at micro levels of the society to handle
distress.[155][156] There have been calls for halting
48
the ₹20,000 crore (US$2.8 billion) redevelopment of the central vista
project in Delhi instead.[157][158][159]

Post COVID-19 economic recovery

Economic recovery suggestions
On 23 April Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), in a paper titled "A
plan for economic recovery", outlined three measures that the government
should take such as cash transfers to JAM account holders, a credit
protection scheme for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs)
and creation of a special purpose vehicle (SPV/SPE) to limit
"Government exposure while providing adequate liquidity to
industry".[160] On 24 April Bina Agarwal, an Indian development
economist, has suggested that the government "create green worker pools,
not green zones" as part of lockdown re-calibration efforts.[161] On 28
April Anand Mahindra said a graded re-opening of the lockdown will
make economic recovery 'painfully slow'; with the economy being so
very interconnected, the lockdown should be lifted comprehensively once
the optimal lockdown period as per research has been completed.[162][163]

Task forces
The Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council
(TIFAC), Department of Science and Technology, are preparing a white
paper on the revival of the India economy.[76] TIFAC has a "mandate to
think for the future".[76] The Punjab government has formed a group of
experts led by Montek Singh Ahluwalia. Former Prime Minister Dr
Manmohan Singh will provide guidance.[164]

49
 CHAPTER-3
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON
GLOBAL MANUFACTURING
INDUSTRY , 2020

50
Impact of COVID-19 on the Global Manufacturing
Industry, 2020

The manufacturing sector is a major part of the economy as it

accounts for nearly 16% of the global GDP in 2018. As a
result, the government across the countries primarily focuses
on encouraging the manufacturing sector. Certain initiatives in
emerging economies to promote the manufacturing sector
include Make in India and Made in China (MIC) 2025. MIC
2025 is the first stage of a larger three-step strategy to
transform China into a leading manufacturing power. The
initiative seeks to move China up the manufacturing value
chain by utilizing innovative manufacturing technologies or
smart manufacturing.

In addition, Make in India is an initiative was launched in

2015 to encourage the production of goods in India. This aims
to reduce India's dependency on exporting nations by
producing goods in their own country. Since the launch of
Make in India, FDI in the country has followed an optimal
trend. During the period, April 2014 to March 2019, FDI
inflow in India was $286 billion, which is nearly 46.9% of the
overall FDI received in the country since April 2000 ($592
billion). This resulted in owing to the investment-friendly
policies and opening of FDI allowance in several sectors.

However, after the outbreak of coronavirus, the global

FDI inflows has witnessed a sharp decline.

As per the estimation by United Nations Conference on Trade

and Development (UNCTAD), the COVID-19 outbreak could
cause global FDI to shrink by 5%-15%, due to the downfall in
manufacturing sector coupled with factory shutdown. The
negative effects of COVID-19 on FDI investments are
expected to be high in the energy, automotive, and airlines

51
industries. Due to the epidemics of COVID-19 across the
globe, the manufacturers of the automobile, chemical,
electronics, and aircraft are facing concerns regarding the
availability of raw material. In the electronics sector,
smartphones and consumer electronics companies have
commenced a reduction in production operations and
postponed the introduction of new products coupled with the
COVID-19 outbreak, which in turn has interrupted the supply
of components.

The study on the impact of COVID-19 on the global

manufacturing industry is classified into automobile, food &
beverage, chemical, machinery, electrical and electronics,
metal, aviation, pharmaceutical and medical equipment, and
others. The electronics industry is being significantly affected
due to the COVID-19 epidemic, as China accounts for nearly
85% of the total value of components utilized in smartphones
and nearly 75% in the case of televisions. All critical
components, such as printed circuit boards, mobile displays,
LED chips, memory, open cell TV panels, and capacitors are
imported from China. Most of the Chinese factories were shut
down due to the coronavirus pandemic. As a result, in January
2020, Chinese vendors have increased component prices by
nearly 2-3% owing to shortage of supplies due to factory
shutdown. Therefore, it has negatively affected the electronics
manufacturing sector across the globe.

Further, the effect of COVID-19 on manufacturing industry is

analyzed based on regions, including North
America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Rest of World. In Asia-
Pacific, China is mostly affected by the condition, due to the
fall in industrial production coupled with the shutdown of
factories. In Europe, most of the automobile companies and
electronics manufacturers have temporarily closed their
factories or minimize the production output, which results in
loss to the global trade. For instance, Daimler and

52
Volkswagen declared recently that they will temporarily shut
down production of vehicle and engine at its factories
in Europe due to the coronavirus outbreak. The initiative is
aimed for the safety of their workers. The closure of factories
by major automobile manufacturers resulting in a loss in
automobile production, which in turn, is affecting the
automobile sector in Europe.

The companies getting affected with the coronavirus outbreak

include Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V., Ford Motors Co.,
Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., BASF SE, and the Boeing Co.
Some of these companies are shifting their production facility
to the countries with less COVID-19 epidemic. For instance,
in March 2020, Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. declared to
shift some portion of its domestic production of smartphones
to Vietnam coupled the fastest growth in the spread of
coronavirus in South Korea. This aims to minimize the
potential effect of coronavirus on its smartphone
manufacturing operations.

53
 CHAPTER-4
IMPACT OF COVID 19 ON
BANKING & CAPITAL
MARKET INSTITUTIONS

54
 Assessing COVID-19 impact on banking and financial
services

The COVID-19 pandemic could be one of the most serious challenges

faced by the financial services industry in nearly a century. The COVID-
19 impact on banking will be severe – fall in demand, lower incomes,
production shutdowns - and will adversely affect the business of banks.
The situation is exacerbated by staff shortages, inadequate digital
maturity, and pressure on the existing infrastructure as firms scramble to
deal with the impact of COVID-19 on financial services.

To address the COVID-19 impact on banking, financial institutions must

craft a strategic response across the immediate-, short- and medium-term
by adopting the appropriate digital technology enablers and innovations
underpinned by agile delivery models. Some of the digital technology
enablers include:

 Analytics and insights solutions to identify and prepare for new risks
 Business process reengineering and automation to ensure availability of
digital banking services
 Artificial intelligence backed tools and conversational platforms to deal
with surge in call volumes
 Video banking facilities

 Guidance for banking and capital market executives

 Banks and capital markets institutions have no choice but to remain
hypervigilant and rewrite the pandemic playbook as circumstances
with COVID-19 evolve. While it is reassuring to see some aggressive
fiscal and monetary policy responses around the world already, clarity
on how these actions will stabilize markets and accelerate the path to
normalcy is yet to emerge.
 The uncertainty from COVID-19 will remain for the foreseeable
future. Banks and capital markets institutions have no choice but to
remain hyper vigilant and rewrite their business continuity
playbooks as circumstances change. While it is reassuring to see
some aggressive fiscal and monetary policy responses around the
world already, clarity on how these actions will stabilize markets
and accelerate the path to normalcy is slowly emerging, and in
some cases yet to emerge. However, banks and their customers can
take some comfort that capital ratios were the strongest going into
this crisis than at any time in the last decade.
55
 Banks need to actively consider the immediate needs of their
people and simultaneously the multiple near-, short-, and medium-
term operational, financial, risk, and regulatory compliance
implications. They have an opportunity to support market and
economic activity and to facilitate a quick return to stability. If
banks and capital markets firms respond well to these
unprecedented challenges, they will not only help society, but also
increase trust and the reputation of the banking industry in the long
run.

56
 CHAPTER-5
COVID-19 IMPACT ON
FOREIGN DIRECT
INVESTMENT POLICY

57
COVID – 19 Impact – Government Of India
Amends Foreign Direct Investment Policy To
Regulate Chinese Investments Into India

When news broke about Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) acquiring

over 1% shareholding in one of India's largest housing finance
company, the Housing Development Financial Corporation
(HDFC), it caused a storm in the entire financial media and the
business community. Alarm bells went off that Indian companies
will become easy targets for acquisition by Chinese investors in the
wake of sharp fall in the valuation of listed Indian companies
because of COVID-19 pandemic. That the shareholding was picked
when HDFC's price was down 40% from its peak further fuelled
these concerns. While HDFC was quick to clarify that PBOC was
already a shareholder holding 0.8% of its shareholding as of March,
2019 and had merely increased its shareholding to above 1%, a
threshold that required notification, the issue continued to simmer
because of its possible future implications.

PBOC's acquisition was not the only opportunistic trade taking

advantage of the crashing stock prices. There were other similar
trades. The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) picked up a
0.7 percent stake in HDFC on behalf of Saudi sovereign wealth fund.
SAMA's name isn't reflected in the names of major shareholders in
HDFC's regulatory filing as the holding in the company is less than
one percent. One can argue that crash is a good time for investors to
go shopping and pick up bargains at a discount and that what PBOC
or SAMA did was normal investment activity. Then why has
PBOC's stake buy in HDFC caused such a furore?

There are a number of reasons. Firstly, a central bank buying an

equity stake in a commercial entity is not common. The backdrop to
this acquisition made the move even more unusual and caused
greater panic. Chinese government's role in the spread of COVID-19
pandemic has come under a cloud with questions being raised
whether the worldwide spread and the consequent tragedy could
have been averted if China had acted more responsibly. Secondly,
China's desire for financial hegemony and global dominance has
58
been an open secret. China's current forex reserve of over $3.2
trillion, which equal India' s GDP for 2019, dwarf India's forex
reserves of $476.475 billion thereby giving it enough firepower to
acquire beaten down companies and businesses. Thirdly, recently,
China has emerged as one of the fastest-growing sources of foreign
direct investment (FDI) in India, especially in Indian start-ups
(Alibaba and Tencent have invested in a large number of start-ups).
This coupled with the fact that in China the dividing line between
the state and the private sector is blurred has caused greater concern.
According to a recent study by the Brookings Institution 1, India's
biggest challenge is to be able to map Chinese investments in India
due to lack of single point data and because of the ways and means
in which FDI can be routed into India.

It seems that paying heed to such concerns, the Department for

Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade, Ministry of Commerce &
Industry, Government of India (DIPP), the Government agency
responsible for FDI policy which regulates foreign investments into
India, in a swift and largely welcomed move, has amended the FDI
policy, with a view to protect Indian companies against opportunistic
takeovers/acquisitions during the COVID – 19 pandemic. Although
the move was in discussion for sometime within the Government, it
appears that the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the Indian
economy forced the Government's hand and prompted it to act. The
amendment has come into effect from April 22, 2020.

Under the current FDI policy, a non-resident entity can invest in

India except in prohibited sectors/activities under the automatic
route, that is without requiring Government permission. However, a
citizen of Bangladesh or Pakistan or an entity incorporated in
Bangladesh or Pakistan can invest only under the Government route,
i.e., after obtaining prior Government approval, except that a citizen
or entity from Pakistan cannot invest in defence, space, atomic
energy and prohibited sectors/activities. Per the amendment to the
FDI policy, any entity or beneficial owner of an investment into
India or a citizen, based in a country which shares land border with
India can invest only under the Government route. Also, the transfer
of ownership of any existing or future FDI in an Indian entity,
directly or indirectly, resulting in the beneficial ownership falling
within the above restriction will also require Government approval.

59
The intent behind this amendment appears to be to regulate both
greenfield and brownfield investments from countries sharing a
common border with India and to allow the Government to
scrutinize such investments and approve them on a case-to-case
basis. While, the amendment doesn't state it specifically, it appears
to be aimed at regulating investments from China since of the seven
countries that share land borders with India investments from
Bangladesh and Pakistan were already regulated and investments
from Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar and Afghanistan are not significant to
merit such a move.

The amendment is quite broad in its sweep and will apply to

acquisition or transfer of even one share. What is unclear is whether
the amendment will achieve its intent to regulate and slow the pace
of Chinese investments into India. The amendment doesn't define
beneficial ownership. The result could be that taking benefit of this
lack of clarity, investments from China can and will continue to be
routed from countries other than China. The amendment puts
investment by a company or a citizen based in China or by a
beneficial owner based in China under Government approval route.
This restriction can be easily circumvented where the investment
into an Indian company is by a company in a country other than
China which is ultimately owned by a Chinese company or citizen.
Unless beneficial ownership is defined to restrict ultimate ownership
or control by Chinese companies and citizens the amendment may
not achieve its desired outcome. It is also unclear whether the
amendment would apply to investments from Hong Kong. So far, for
the purpose of FDI into India, China and Hong Kong have been
regarded as separate destinations even after Hong Kong became part
of China.

The amendment also seems to be a prelude to perhaps a similar

decision that is expected from the Government for investments by
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI), entities that invest in companies
listed on Indian stock exchanges. Although China doesn't figure in
the top 10 jurisdictions for FPIs in India, in an unusual move, SEBI,
the Indian stock exchanges regulator, has asked custodians to
provide details of 'ultimate beneficial owners' of FPIs based in China
and Hong Kong.

60
India's move is not isolated and follows similar developments in
some other countries. In the last few weeks, Germany, France, Italy,
and Spain have tightened their foreign investment laws to prevent
hostile acquisitions. In the past, Chinese companies have escaped the
kind of scrutiny in India that their investments have attracted in the
West, despite several prominent investments and acquisitions. In
America, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States
(CFIUS) conducts reviews of foreign investment which may lead to
control of an American entity 2. CFIUS's main focus is on
investments involving Chinese state-owned or controlled investors
and investments in industries like finance and technology.

While the change in the FDI policy has been largely received as a
welcome move except perhaps by the start-up community who will
have one source of funding shut off, it has also left open some
questions. It is unclear how the government will monitor
investments that are routed through various shell companies.
Estimating the actual investment flows from China and Chinese
companies could be difficult because many investments in Indian
companies are routed through Hong Kong, Singapore or other third-
party countries which don't share a border with India. Further, it is
also not clear if this is a temporary arrangement or something that
will stay on. The amendment will also impact transactions and
investments that were at advanced stage of negotiations or waiting
completion. It would be interesting to watch the approach the
Government adopts in dealing with proposals submitted to it for
approval post this amendment. Will it reject all proposals or adopt a
nuanced approach to reject proposals that it perceives to be a threat
to national security or India's strategic interest or involve investment
in certain specific sectors. The Government would have done well to
clarify the ambiguities and loopholes that the amendment leaves
open for the new regime to be effective. May be there is a purpose
behind not doing so.

61
 CHAPTER-6
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON
SERVICE SECTOR

62
COVID-19 pandemic pulls India’s service sector
activity into contraction mode
The worse is yet to come as nationwide store closures and
prohibition to leave the house will weigh heavily on the
services economy, says economist Joe Hayes of IHS Markit
India’s services sector activity contracted during March as
the COVID-19 pandemic dented demand, particularly in
overseas markets, while public health measures aimed at
stemming the outbreak curtailed discretionary spending, a
monthly survey said on Monday.
The IHS Markit India Services Business Activity Index was at
49.3 in March, down from February’s 85-month high of 57.5, as
the new coronavirus pandemic pulled the service sector into
contraction.
The headline figure fell by over 8 points, undoing the strong
gains in growth momentum seen throughout 2019, the survey
said.
In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score
below that denotes contraction.
“The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on India’s services
economy has not been fully realised yet,” Joe Hayes, Economist
at IHS Markit, said, adding that “the survey data collection
(March 12-27) was concluding just as Prime Minister Narendra
Modi ordered a complete lockdown of the country“.
Hayes further said that “clearly the worse is yet to come as
nationwide store closures and prohibition to leave the house will
weigh heavily on the services economy, as has been seen
elsewhere in the world.”
According to panel members, business activity was reduced in
response to weaker demand and firms responded by reducing

63
their workforces as intakes of new business were insufficient to
maintain payroll numbers.
Latest survey data pointed to the first fall in order book volumes
at Indian service providers since September 2019.
“Pressure now fully lies on the government to combat the
economic challenges the lockdown will cause,” Hayes said.

64
 CHAPTER-7
IMPACT OF COVID-19
PANDEMIC ON EDUCATION

65
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on
education

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected educational systems worldwide,

leading to the near-total closures of schools, universities and colleges.
As of 27 April 2020, approximately 1.725 billion learners are currently
affected due to school closures in response to the pandemic. According to
UNICEF monitoring, 186 countries are currently implementing
nationwide closures and 8 are implementing local closures, impacting
about 98.5 per cent of the world's student population.[1] On 23 March
2020, Cambridge International Examinations (CIE) released a statement
announcing the cancellation of Cambridge IGCSE, Cambridge O Level,
Cambridge International AS & A Level, Cambridge AICE Diploma, and
Cambridge Pre-U examinations for the May/June 2020 series across all
countries.[2] International Baccalaureate exams have also been
cancelled.[3]
School closures impact not only students, teachers, and families, but have
far-reaching economic and societal consequences.[4][5] School closures in
response to COVID-19 have shed light on various social and economic
issues, including student debt,[6] digital learning,[7][8] food
insecurity,[9] and homelessness,[10][11] as well as access
to childcare,[12] health care,[13] housing,[14] internet,[15] and disability
services.[16] The impact was more severe for disadvantaged children and
their families, causing interrupted learning, compromised nutrition,
childcare problems, and consequent economic cost to families who could
not work.[17][18]
In response to school closures, UNESCO recommended the use
of distance learning programmes and open educational applications and
platforms that schools and teachers can use to reach learners remotely and
limit the disruption of education.[19]

Background[edit]
Efforts to stem the spread of COVID-19 through non-pharmaceutical
interventions and preventive measures such as social-distancing and self-
isolation have prompted the widespread closure of primary, secondary,
and tertiary schooling in over 100 countries.[20]
Previous outbreaks of infectious diseases have prompted widespread
school closings around the world, with varying levels of
effectiveness.[21][22][23] Mathematical modelling has shown that

66
transmission of an outbreak may be delayed by closing schools. However,
effectiveness depends on the contacts children maintain outside of
school.[24][25] School closures may be effective when enacted promptly. If
school closures occur late relative to an outbreak, they are less effective
and may not have any impact at all.[21][22] Additionally, in some cases, the
reopening of schools after a period of closure has resulted in increased
infection rates.[26] As closures tend to occur concurrently with other
interventions such as public gathering bans, it can be difficult to measure
the specific impact of school closures.[26]
During the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in the United States, school
closures and public gathering bans were associated with lower total
mortality rates.[22] Cities that implemented such interventions earlier had
greater delays in reaching peak mortality rates.[27][26] Schools closed for a
median duration of 4 weeks according to a study of 43 US cities' response
to the Spanish Flu.[27] School closures were shown to
reduce morbidity from the Asian flu by 90% during the 1957–58
outbreak,[28] and up to 50% in controlling influenza in the US, 2004–
2008.[29]
Multiple countries successfully slowed the spread of infection through
school closures during the 2009 H1N1 Flu pandemic. School closures in
the city of Oita, Japan, were found to have successfully decreased the
number of infected students at the peak of infection; however closing
schools was not found to have significantly decreased the total number of
infected students.[30] Mandatory school closures and other social
distancing measures were associated with a 29% to 37% reduction in
influenza transmission rates.[31] Early school closures in the United States
delayed the peak of the 2009 H1N1 Flu pandemic.[21] Despite the overall
success of closing schools, a study of school closures in Michigan found
that "district level reactive school closures were ineffective."[32]
During the swine flu outbreak in 2009 in the UK, in an article titled
"Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic" published in
the Lancet Infectious Diseases, a group of epidemiologists endorsed the
closure of schools in order to interrupt the course of the infection, slow
further spread and buy time to research and produce a vaccine.[33] Having
studied previous influenza pandemics including the 1918 flu pandemic,
the influenza pandemic of 1957 and the 1968 flu pandemic, they reported
on the economic and workforce effect school closure would have,
particularly with a large percentage of doctors and nurses being women,
of whom half had children under the age of 16. They also looked at the
dynamics of the spread of influenza in France during French school
holidays and noted that cases of flu dropped when schools closed and re-
emerged when they re-opened. They noted that when teachers in Israel
67
went on strike during the flu season of 1999–2000, visits to doctors and
the number of respiratory infections dropped by more than a fifth and
more than two fifths respectively.[34]

Hazard controls[edit]
Further information: Workplace hazard controls for COVID-19

For schools and childcare facilities, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention recommends short-term closure to clean or disinfect if an
infected person has been in a school building regardless of community
spread. When there is minimal to moderate community
transmission, social distancing strategies can be implemented such as
cancelling field trips, assemblies, and other large gatherings such
as physical education or choir classes or meals in a cafeteria, increasing
the space between desks, staggering arrival and dismissal times, limiting
nonessential visitors, and using a separate health office location for
children with flu-like symptoms. When there is substantial transmission
in the local community, in addition to social distancing strategies,
extended school dismissals may be considered.[35]

Timeline[edit]

 On 26 January, China instituted measures to contain the COVID-19

outbreak which included extending the Spring Festival holiday to
contain the outbreak. Universities and schools around the country
closed.[36]
 On 23 February, Iran's Ministry of Health announced the closure of
universities, higher educational institutions and schools in several
cities and provinces.[37]
 On 3 March, UNESCO released the first global numbers on school
closures and affected students. It reported that 13 countries had
enacted preventive measures including the temporary closure of
schools and universities, impacting 290.5 million students around the
world. In reaction, UNESCO called on countries to support affected
students and families and facilitate large-scale inclusive distance
learning programmes.[38]
 On 4 March, the Italian government ordered the full closure of all
schools and universities nationwide as Italy reached 100 deaths.[39] In
doing so, Italy became one of 22 countries on three continents which
had announced or implemented school closures.[38]

68
 On 5 March, the majority of learners affected by COVID-19
emergency measures were located in China, with 233 million learners
affected, followed by Japan at 16.5 million and Iran at 14.5 million.[40]
 By 10 March, one in five students worldwide was "staying away from
school due to the COVID-19 crisis" while another one in four was
barred from higher education institutions.[41]
 On 13 March, governments in 49 countries announced or
implemented school closures, including 39 countries which closed
schools nationwide and 22 countries with localised school closures.[20]
 By 16 March, this figure increased from 49 to 73 countries according
to UNESCO.[20]
 By 19 March, 50% of students worldwide were affected by school
closures, corresponding to nationwide closures in 102 countries and
local closures in 11 countries affecting 850 million children and
youth.[42]
 By 20 March, over 70% of the world's learners were impacted by
closures, with 124 country-wide school closures.[20]
 On 26 March, all New Zealand schools and universities have been
closed down across the country.[43][44] The government has imposed a
two-week holiday, allowing schools to transition to forms of distant
teaching as soon as possible.[43] Universities have closed for one week,
but resumed with online teaching afterwards.[44] Other school services
remain open, but teaching is restricted to distant learning.[44]
 By 27 March, nearly 90 per cent of the world's student population
was out of class.[45] Regions with schools remaining open included
Taiwan, Singapore, Australia, Sweden, and some U.S. states.[45]
 By 29 March, more than 1.5 billion children and other students were
affected by nationwide school closures. Others were disrupted by
localized closures.[17]
 Until 6 April, holidays were extended in all secondary schools of
Turkmenistan. An order signed by the Ministry of Education as a
preventative measure aims to prevent the spread of respiratory
diseases in connection with the WHO coronavirus pandemic.[46]

School closures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have shed a light

on numerous issues affecting access to education, as well as
broader socio-economic issues.[20] As of March 12, more than 370
million children and youth are not attending school because of temporary
or indefinite country wide school closures mandated by governments in
an attempt to slow the spread of COVID-19.[20][122][123] As of 29 March,
nearly 90% of the world's learners were impacted by closures.[20]

69
Even when school closures are temporary, it carries high social and
economic costs. The disruptions they cause affect people
across communities, but their impact is more severe for disadvantaged
children and their families including interrupted learning, compromised
nutrition, childcare problems and consequent economic cost to families
who cannot work.[20][124] Working parents are more likely to miss work
when schools close in order to take care of their children, incurring wage
loss in many instances and negatively impacting productivity.[4] Localised
school closures place burdens on schools as parents and officials redirect
children to schools that are open.[4]

Unintended strain on health-care system[edit]

Women often represent a large share of health-care workers and often
cannot attend work because of childcare obligations that result from
school closures. This means that many medical professionals are not at
the facilities where they are most needed during a health crisis.[4]

Distance learning[edit]
A math distance lesson over a video conference during the COVID-19
pandemic in Russia
In response to the pandemic, many schools moved to online distance
learning via platforms like Zoom.

Unequal access to technology[edit]

Lack of access to technology or fast, reliable internet access can prevent
students in rural areas and from disadvantaged families. Lack of access to
technology or good internet connectivity is an obstacle to continued
learning, especially for students from disadvantaged families.[4] In
response to school closures caused by COVID-
19, UNESCO recommends the use of distance learning programmes
and open educational applications and platforms that schools and teachers
can use to reach learners remotely and limit the disruption
of education.[125]
To aid in slowing the transmission of COVID-19, hundreds of libraries
have temporarily closed. In the United States, numerous major cities
announced public library closures, including Los Angeles, San Francisco,
Seattle, and New York City, affecting 221 libraries.[126] For students

70
without internet at home, this increases the difficulty of keeping up with
distance learning.

Unequal access to educational resources[edit]

Lack of limitations and exceptions to copyright can also have an impact
on the ability of students to access the textbooks and materials they need
to study.[127] Several initiatives were taken to grant that students and
teachers can have access to open educational resources, or understand
copyright limitations. The International Council for Open and Distance
Education issued a special website to provide webinars, tips for online
teaching and resources for teachers.[128]
In New Zealand, a group of publishers agreed to allow for virtual public
readings of their materials from libraries and classrooms.[129] A similar
agreement took place in Australia, where the Australian Publishers
Association, the Australian Library and Information Association and
the Australian Society of Authors agreed on a set of exceptional measures
to allow libraries to provide educational content.[130] The Australian
organization AMCOS agreed to give a gratis license for all their music
sheets to all schools across Australia.[131]
An advocacy organization in Netherlands launched a website to allow
teachers use free-licensed music and video for their classes.[132]
The Maricopa Millions OER Project launched a special emergency fund
for building open educational resources.[133]
A coalition of over 500 civil society organizations and individuals issued
a letter to Francis Gurry, Director of the World Intellectual Property
Organization, asking, among other things, a special set of limitations and
exceptions to copyright for the duration of the pandemic.[134]
Several organizations are also working to explain to teachers how to
navigate copyright complex scenarios. The National Copyright Unit of
Australia, a specialist copyright team responsible for copyright policy and
administration for Australian schools and TAFE, issued a set of
recommendations to follow on copyright issues while doing remote
learning[135][136] and a set of recommendations for using openly licensed
content, specially aimed to parents supporting students.[137] Centrum
Cyfrowe in Poland is holding open calls to support the work of teachers
and educators leading in the open education sector.[138] The Program on
Information Justice and Intellectual Property at the American
University is holding a set of webinars for different educators to guide
them through copyright issues when delivering online teaching.[139]

71
Childcare[edit]
School closures puts a strain on parents and guardians to provide
childcare and manage distance learning while children are out of
school.[40] In the absence of alternative options, working parents often
leave children alone when schools close and this can lead to risky
behaviours, including increased influence of peer pressure and substance
abuse.[4]

Nutrition and food insecurity[edit]

Sign advertising a free breakfast and lunch program for children during
widespread school closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United
States.

Nutrition plays a critical role in cognitive development and academic

performance for children.[140] Many children worldwide rely on free or
discounted meals at schools.[40] When schools close, nutrition is
especially compromised for children in schools where food is
provided.[20]
In the United States, school lunch programmes are the second-biggest
anti-hunger initiative after food stamps. Every year, nearly 30 million
children rely on schools to provide free or low-cost meals including
breakfast, lunch, snacks, and even dinner.[141] In Washington State,
around 45% of the states 1.1 million students enrolled in traditional
public and charter schools qualify for subsidised school meals. At least
520,000 students and their families may be affected by food insecurity as
a result of school closures.[142] In Alabama, where state-wide school
closures as of 18 March have affected over 720,000 students, the state
Superintendent announced that staff in schools disproportionately
affected by poverty would create meal distribution networks to provide
food for students who rely on school lunches.[143]

Student learning outcomes[edit]

School closures negatively impact student learning
outcomes.[4] Schooling provides essential learning and when schools
close, children and youth are deprived opportunities for growth and
development. The disadvantages are disproportionate for under-
privileged learners who tend to have fewer educational opportunities
beyond school.[125] When schools close, parents are often asked to

72
facilitate the learning of children at home and can struggle to perform this
task. This is especially true for parents with limited education and
resources.[4]
Student drop-out rates tend to increase as an effect of school closures due
to the challenge of ensuring all students return to school once school
closures ends. This is especially true of protracted
closures.[40][4] Disadvantaged, at-risk, or homeless children are more
likely not to return to school after the closures are ended, and the effect
will often be a life-long disadvantage from lost opportunities.[144]
Schools are also hubs of social activity and human interaction. When
schools are closed, many children and youth miss out of on social contact
that is essential to learning and development.[4]

Special education services[edit]

Potential impacts of school closures and reliance on distance learning are
not addressed in federal acts[where?] of legislation at this time[when?].[142][145]

Impact on formal education[edit]

An electronic sign announces public school closures due to COVID-

19 in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, USA

Formal education — as opposed to informal education or non-formal

education — tends to refer to schools, colleges, universities and training
institutions.[146][147] A 1974 report by the World Bank defined formal
education as the following:
Formal education: the hierarchically structured, chronologically graded
‘education system’, running from primary school through the university
and including, in addition to general academic studies, a variety of
specialised programmes and institutions for full-time technical and
professional training.[146]
The majority of data collected on the number of students and learners
impacted by COVID-19 has been calculated based on the closure of
formal education systems.[148] The UNESCO Institute for
Statistics provides figures on students impacted by COVID-19
corresponding to the number of learners enrolled at pre-primary, primary,
lower-secondary, and upper-secondary levels of education [ISCED levels
0 to 3], as well as at tertiary education levels [ISCED levels 5 to 8].[148]
73
Early childhood education[edit]
Playground at a Seattle elementary school is closed due to the epidemic
on 25 March

Early childhood educational programmes are usually designed for

children below the age of 3 and may refer to preschools, nursery
schools, kindergartens, and some day care programmes.[149] While many
primary and secondary schools have closed around the world due to
COVID-19, measures impacting early childhood educational programmes
have varied. In some countries and territories,[which?] preschools and day
cares are considered necessary services and have not closed in tandem
with broader school closure measures.[citation needed]
In the United States, the Washington State Department of Children,
Youth, and Families encouraged child care and early learning centres to
stay open. Some school districts may offer alternative child care options,
prioritising the children of first responders and healthcare
workers.[150] The governor of Maryland mandated that specific child care
services remain open for the children of emergency personnel while
Washington State and California have left it to the discretion of care
providers.[151][152] California Governor Gavin Newsom explained his
state's position, saying “We need our child care facilities, our daycare
centers, to operate to absorb the impact of these school
closures.”[152] Colorado has encouraged the development of "tool kits" for
parents to use at home to emulate the lessons children would have
received in their early learning programmes.[153]
In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe closed all schools throughout the
country until April 8, however, children's daycare facilities were
excluded.[154] In early March, five adults associated with a nursing facility
for preschool children in Kobe tested positive for coronavirus. After
testing over one hundred children at the facility, a preschool student was
found to be carrying the virus.[155]

Primary[edit]
Primary or elementary education typically consists of the first four to
seven years of formal education. An empty classroom in closed
elementary school due to COVID-19 in Kikinda, Serbia

74
Secondary[edit]
A sign on a closed local school because of the coronavirus

The International Baccalaureate Organization (IBO) canceled the

examinations for its Diploma Programme and Career-related
Programme candidates scheduled between 30 April and 22 May 2020,
reportedly affecting more than 200,000 students worldwide. The IBO
stated that it would award candidates their diplomas or certificates based
on "their coursework" and "the established assessment expertise, rigor,
and quality control already built into the programme."[156]

Tertiary (higher)[edit]
Tertiary education, also known as higher education, refers to the non-
compulsory educational levels that follow completion of secondary
school or high school. Tertiary education is normally taken to
include undergraduate and postgraduate education, as well as vocational
education and training. Individuals who complete tertiary education
generally receive certificates, diplomas, or academic degrees.[157]

Undergraduate education[edit]
Undergraduate education is education conducted after secondary
education and prior to post-graduate education, for which the learner is
typically awarded a bachelor's degree.[157] Students enrolled in higher
education programs at colleges, universities, and community colleges are
often referred to as "college students" in countries such as United
States.[citation needed]
The closure of colleges and universities has widespread implications for
students, faculty, administrators, and the institutions themselves.
Colleges and universities across the United States have been called upon
to issue refunds to students for the cost of tuition and room and
board.[158][159]
While $6 billion in emergency relief is to be made available to students
during the pandemic, Education Secretary Betsy DeVos decided on April
21, 2020 that it will only be made available to those students who are also
already eligible for federal financial aid. This rule will exclude tens of
thousands of undocumented students who participate in the
government's Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA, or

75
"Dreamers") program from being able to receive emergency relief
funds.[160]
Impact on local economies[edit]
In the United States of America, colleges and universities operate as
"mini-cities" which generate significant revenue for cities, states, and
regions.[161] For example, Princeton University contributed $1.58
billion USD to the New Jersey economy and students spent about $60
million in off-campus spending.[161] College and university closures have
a domino effect on economies with far-reaching implications.[5]
In March, Linda Bilmes of the Harvard Kennedy School noted that "local
hotels, restaurants, cafes, shops, car rental agencies and other local
businesses obtain a significant share of annual revenue from graduation
week and college reunions... these communities will suffer a lot of
economic damage if the colleges remain closed at that time."[161]
Small towns which rely on college students to support the local economy
and provide labour to local businesses are especially impacted by school
closures and the exodus of students from campus.[158] In Ithaca, New
York, Cornell University students spent at least $4 million a week
in Tompkins County. In the wake of Cornell's decision to keep students
home following spring break and transition to virtual instruction, the
Mayor of Ithaca called for "immediate and forceful federal action — we
will see a horrific economic impact as a result of Cornell University
closing."[162]

Recommended alternatives[edit]
Digital assignment during COVID-19 pandemic in a Texas public school

UNESCO makes 10 recommendations:

1. Examine the readiness and choose the most relevant

tools: Decide on the use high-technology and low-technology
solutions based on the reliability of local power supplies, internet
connectivity, and digital skills of teachers and students. This could
range through integrated digital learning platforms, video lessons,
MOOCs, to broadcasting through radios and TVs.
2. Ensure inclusion of the distance learning
programmes: Implement measures to ensure that students
including those with disabilities or from low-income backgrounds
have access to distance learning programmes, if only a limited
number of them have access to digital devices. Consider

76
 temporarily decentralising such devices from computer labs to
families and support them with internet connectivity.
3. Protect data privacy and data security: Assess data security
when uploading data or educational resources to web spaces, as
well as when sharing them with other organisations or individuals.
Ensure that the use of applications and platforms does not violate
students’ data privacy.
4. Prioritize solutions to address psychosocial challenges before
teaching: Mobilize available tools to connect schools, parents,
teachers, and students with each other. Create communities to
ensure regular human interactions, enable social caring measures,
and address possible psychosocial challenges that students may
face when they are isolated.
5. Plan the study schedule of the distance learning
programmes: Organise discussions with stakeholders to examine
the possible duration of school closures and decide whether the
distance learning programme should focus on teaching new
knowledge or enhance students’ knowledge of prior lessons. Plan
the schedule depending on the situation of the affected zones, level
of studies, needs of students needs, and availability of parents.
Choose the appropriate learning methodologies based on the status
of school closures and home-based quarantines. Avoid learning
methodologies that require face-to-face communication.
6. Provide support to teachers and parents on the use of digital
tools: Organise brief training or orientation sessions for teachers
and parents as well, if monitoring and facilitation are needed. Help
teachers to prepare the basic settings such as solutions to the use of
internet data if they are required to provide live streaming of
lessons.
7. Blend appropriate approaches and limit the number of
applications and platforms: Blend tools or media that are
available for most students, both for synchronous communication
and lessons, and for asynchronous learning. Avoid overloading
students and parents by asking them to download and test too
many applications or platforms.
8. Develop distance learning rules and monitor students’ learning
process: Define the rules with parents and students on distance
learning. Design formative questions, tests, or exercises to monitor
closely students’ learning process. Try to use tools to support
submission of students’ feedback and avoid overloading parents by
requesting them to scan and send students’ feedback

77
9. Define the duration of distance learning units based on
students’ self-regulation skills: Keep a coherent timing according
to the level of the students’ self-regulation and metacognitive
abilities especially for livestreaming classes. Preferably, the unit
for primary school students should not be more than 20 minutes,
and no longer than 40 minutes for secondary school students.
10. Create communities and enhance connection: Create
communities of teachers, parents, and school managers to address
sense of loneliness or helplessness, facilitate sharing of experience
and discussion on coping strategies when facing learning
difficulties.[163]

78
 CHAPTER-8
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON
INDIAN E-COMMERCE
SECTOR

79
The impact of COVID-19 on Indian e-commerce
sector
The UN Conference on Trade and Development states that the
coronavirus can cost the global economy close to 2 trillion dollars.

As the coronavirus
pandemic continues to
wreak havoc across the
globe disrupting lives and
economies, various
industries including
aviation, automobile,
hospitality, IT services ,
pharmaceutical and e-
commerce are grappling with the challenges posed by this unforeseen
health menace. The global outbreak of coronavirus has adversely
impacted business models, supply chain networks and jeopardized
business continuity operations. The UN Conference on Trade and
Development states that the coronavirus can cost the global economy
close to 2 trillion dollars. The potential impact of this crisis on Indian
economy is yet to be ascertained as the economic activity continues to
slide.

Online marketplaces have reported an unprecedented spike in demand

for personal hygiene products such as hand washes, sanitizers, toilet
essentials such as toilet papers in addition to daily necessity items like
floor cleaners, wet wipes, etc. Panic buying and hoarding have made
matters worse, and it has led to essential items running out of stock. To
ensure that necessary supplies are available, e-commerce players are
cracking down on hoarders and profiteers and blocking their access to
online marketplaces. Ecommerce players are finding it hard to meet
demands due to inequity unleashed by curb on exports of preventive
gear such as protective masks. networks and jeopardized business
continuity operations. The UN Conference on Trade and Development
states that the coronavirus can cost the global economy close to 2

80
trillion dollars. The potential impact of this crisis on Indian economy is
yet to be ascertained as the economic activity continues to slide.

Online marketplaces have reported an unprecedented spike in demand

for personal hygiene products such as hand washes, sanitizers, toilet
essentials such as toilet papers in addition to daily necessity items like
floor cleaners, wet wipes, etc. Panic buying and hoarding have made
matters worse, and it has led to essential items running out of stock. To
ensure that necessary supplies are available, e-commerce players are
cracking down on hoarders and profiteers and blocking their access to
online marketplaces. Ecommerce players are finding it hard to meet
demands due to inequity unleashed by curb on exports of preventive
gear such as protective masks.

Organizations across domains have allowed remote working for

employees, which has boosted in-home consumption. State
governments have imposed lockdowns on malls, multiplexes etc. and
invoked sections of the law to prevent mass gatherings. As a result,
people are buying groceries and even food items online. Perishable
vegetables like tomatoes and food grains are stocked out. The supply
demand imbalance has become a major bottleneck and online stores are
finding it difficult to fulfil orders.

B2B marketplaces are the worst hit as most of their supplies are
dependent on exports as well as imports. Industrial, safety and MRO
supplies are severely affected. Most of the production lines for these
items are based out of China. In the aftermath of the Coronavirus
outbreak, factories aren't operating to their capacity resulting in reduced
production and thereby contributing to the supply-demand inequity.

Procurement tech-focused e-commerce firms are trying to mitigate the

risks posed by the coronavirus pandemic by ensuring the business
continuity operations are resilient. They have prioritized procuring
protective masks for employees and scouted for alternative suppliers in
addition to increasing safety stock levels of goods. The uncertainty

81
about this global health crisis is alarming as no one can predict when
this catastrophe will die down. Businesses need to be intuitive, agile
and reimagine their business models to tide over this crisis.

82
 CHAPTER-9
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON
BUSINESS SECTOR

83
Impact of Covid
Covid-19
19 on Business Sectors: News
Analysis Report by IAN backed Wizikey

IAN backed Wizikey, Asia’s first PR and communication SaaS platform,

has released a data-backed

backed report on the “Impact of Covid
Covid-19
19 in the

Business Sector” which provides the data insights into the business

sectors hit by corona pandemic. The report is focused on VCs, Online

Grocery Delivery, E-commerce,

commerce, Logistics, Healthcare, Media, FMCG,

Retail and Agri-tech.

tech. The attached report has divided every sector into

four parts which tells about the top organization, keywords, impact and

sentiment analysis. The report has been created after a thorough study of

all the news published in various sectors from Jan 2020 to March 2020.

Anshul Sushil, CEO and Co-Founder,

Co Wizikey, said, “In this report,

Wizikey’s Algorithms and Artificial intelligence highlights the

sentiments of various industries in the news. It’s heartwarming to see a

positive mindset that’s driving the Indian corporate landscape. Knowing

how your industry is reacting is handy, and helps busine

business
ss take the right

course of action. Media is playing a great role today in bringing out the

right information that can help businesses survive this time.”

Wizikey algorithms have defines polarity basis the sentiment of news in

every category

84
Healthcare

 WHO declares COVID-19 disease to be a pandemic

 India approves first homegrown PCR kit for coronavirus testing as

death toll reaches 9 and pandemic gains

 Pune firm gets approval for first ‘Made in India’ Covid-19 testing

kit

Week 2 showed less positive news (less than 35.5%) than the preceding

and succeeding week because that week had rampant reports on corona-

virus reaching India. Subsequently the government was able to handle it

and in comparison to other countries we have shown a positive attitude

towards containing the virus.

Logistics

 Product segment Reverse Logistics Market

 Reverse Logistics Market estimate

 Third-Party Logistics Market Growth

 Amazon giving up on non-Prime members with latest shipping

delays

 Amazon India halts order placement of low-priority items, focus on

delivering essential products

 Coronavirus lockdown hits medicine supply, chemists body seeks

govt help

85
Here we witness certain terms which are Reverse Logistics

Growth/estimate/market which has been focussed amid COVID 19, a

technique to combat the impending epidemic. Moreover shipping delays

have also been highlighted in this section

Retail

 Covid-19 is crippling Indian restaurants and retailers—and it’s still

early days

 RBI assures steps keep financial markets in order, tells banks to

prepare action plan against risks

 India retail banking a ‘nice oasis’ for foreign lenders Deutsche,

HSBC, peers

The trend somewhat increased in between week4 and week 5 ( more than

7%) but dropped at 6 % last week. This increment was due to some new

releases by Apple and Samsung in the Indian market. But the percentage

of positive polarity is somehow less than other domains because of lesser

people gathering in public.

Wizikey has also recently launched the news desk from credible news

sources and compiled it into one place. The latest data on Wizikey’s

newly launched dashboard states that almost 51% of the news created in

the last one month was around coronavirus, it also states that almost 29%

86
of news created in the last one month has words related to coronavirus in

the headline.

Express Computer
Express Computer is one of India's most respected IT media brands and
has been in publication for 24 years running. We cover enterprise
technology in all its flavours, including processors, storage, networking,
wireless, business applications, cloud computing, analytics, green
initiatives and anything that can help companies make the most of their
ICT investments. Additionally, we also report on the fast emerging realm
of eGovernance in India.

87
 CHAPTER-10
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON
INDIAN REAL ESTATE
INVESTMENT

88
Covid-19 Impact: Indian real estate institutional
investment down 58% in January-March

Institutional investment into Indian real estate sector has declined 58%
from a year ago to $712 million during the quarter ended March. Total
investments in financial year 2019-20 witnessed a decrease of 13% at
$4.26 billion--the lowest for four years, showed a JLL India report.

The decline was influenced by several events, including the COVID-19

outbreak and several high-profile issues in the domestic banking and
finance sectors in late 2019 and early 2020.
“The impact of COVID -19 virus has been unthinkable in its scope.
Investors are expected to remain in a wait-and-watch mode, with caution
and risk aversion is expected to drive the dominant behavior of
institutional real estate investors over next few quarters,” said Ramesh
Nair, CEO and Country Head, JLL India.

The impact of change in the investment climate was reflected in the asset
allocation, as investors parked more funds in more secure and stable
office spaces. Investments in the office sector rose to $2.9 billion during
the year from $1.8 billion a year ago. The Mumbai Metropolitan Region’s
investments share grew to 43% of national investments in 2019-20 from
23% in 2018-19.

“Ongoing financial woes as well as an unprecedented global crisis of the

pandemic have unsettled the investment climate across the globe,
including India. The currently situation is extremely fluid and it is still
too early to provide a detailed, quantitative assessment of the COVID-19
impact on economic activity, industries and the real estate market,” said
Samantak Das, Executive Director and Head of Research, REIS, JLL
India.
Das expects, office space followed by warehousing, could witness return
of investments, while residential sector to revive with government
support and concessions.

89
Around $8.7 billion of platform funds were announced during 2017-2019,
accounting for 60% of the total funds since 2012. Warehousing sector
attracted highest interest with 38% share of funds announced as the sector
witnessed transformation, post Good and Service Tax reform. Office
sector platform funds account for the second largest share of 29% as large
investors prefer direct acquisition of assets.
Out of USD 4.4 billion invested in office space during 2018 and 2019,
investors have been aggressively chasing returns as options of leased
quality office spaces have reduced over the years. Further, investors are
entering into joint ventures, platform deals or forward sales with more
complexities to manage risks in under construction projects.

Sovereign wealth funds held $29 billion worth of assets under custody
(AUC) in India as of December 2019. Real estate accounted for 22% of
the AUC, amounting to $6.6 billion. The Union Budget had recently
announced concessions for SWFs investing in infrastructure including
affordable housing and logistics, but recent declines in crude prices may
impact their surplus capital available for investments.

The IL&FS crisis brought a halt to real estate lending by non-banking

finance The IL&FS crisis brought a halt to real estate lending by non-
banking finance companies (NBFCs) and housing finance companies
(HFCs) due to funding issues. A reduction in Non Performing Asset
levels and capital support from the government to the commercial banks
has led to gradual revival in lending to the real estate sector. Outstanding
bank .

90
 CHAPTER-11
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON
GOLD PRICES IN INDIA

91
Impact of Covid-19 on Gold Prices in India

Gold prices have remained steady since the last week of March in

India. Investors are now shifting to cash by selling off their assets due

to the pandemic and due to this, the price of the gold had dipped

considerably in the last month.

After the coronavirus or COVID-19 became a global pandemic, investors

are turning to gold globally considering it the safest option to curb the
economic distress. Gold prices have remained steady since the last week
of March in India. Investors are now shifting to cash by selling off their
assets due to the pandemic and due to this, the price of the gold had
dipped considerably in the last month.

The investors in the country are investing in the bullion market for its
safe-haven demand due to global economic distress. The price of gold in
the country opened at Rs.4,253 per gram for the month of April and
remained steady until the end of the first week of the month at Rs.4,253
per gram.
India is the largest consumer of gold in the world and accounts for a
quarter of the world’s total consumption of gold. India uses gold
primarily in the form of jewellery and secondarily for investments. Gold
rates in India change on a daily basis depending on many factors. These
include the demand and supply, global market conditions and currency
fluctuations in the country.

Gold in India is a solid instrument for investments even before the

pandemic arrived. Traders in India invest in gold bullion as it is
considered a safe option. Gold prices have reached an all-time high in
India due to the pandemic, but a large part of this has been driven by
depreciating rupee and increased import duty. It must be noted that gold
prices in India include 12.5% import duty and 3% GST. On the other
hand, international gold prices are much lower than the all-time high
price.

When the markets are shut and the world is facing an economic
slowdown, the Government of India will open subscriptions starting 20
April for the people to invest in Sovereign Gold Bonds. The Reserve
92
Bank of India will issue the SGBs on behalf of the Government of India.
The SGBs will be issued in six tranches from April to September. This
will allow the investors an alternative to investing in gold with a fixed
interest of 2.5% per annum.

93
CHAPTER-12
SUGGESTIONS

94
 Suggestions

 People have lost their jobs, small businesses are closing

down and the all the sectors has been hit hard as a result
of Covid-19.The RBI must increase the supply of grants
and donations to curb further fallout.

 The government schemes should be made by

considering the condition of Indian Economy and
Markets.

 All the policies made by government should be

transparent made for Indian Economy and markets.

 The banks should give loans at cheaper rate to cope up

the loss suffered due to Covid-19 Pandemic.

 Every person is having its own responsibility to take

precautions of Covid-19 to stay safe.

 After the coronavirus or COVID-19 became a global

pandemic, investors are turning to gold globally considering
it the safest option to curb the economic distress.

95
CHAPTER-13
FINDINGS

96
 Findings

Covid-19

 In February 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO)

designated the disease COVID-19, which stands for coronavirus
disease 2019.

 COVID-19, infection has spread to include more than three million

confirmed cases worldwide, prompting the WHO to declare a
public health emergency in late January 2020 and characterize it as
a pandemic in March 2020.

 To reduce the risk of transmission in the community, individuals

should be advised to wash hands diligently, practice respiratory
hygiene (eg, cover their cough), and avoid crowds and close
contact with ill individuals, if possible. Social distancing is
recommended in locations that have community transmission. In
some locations, face coverings are advised in public settings.

Economic impact

 Up to 53% of businesses in the country will be significantly

affected. Various business such as hotels and airlines are cutting

salaries and laying off employees.[13]

 Within a month unemployment rose from 6.7% on 15 March

to 26% on 19 April.
 Around 140,000,000 Indian lost employment in the lockdown.
 More than 45% households across the nation have reported an
income drop as compared to the previous year.[104][6]
 The former Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of
India has said that India should prepare for a negative
growth rate in FY21 and that India would need

97
 a ₹720 lakh crore (US$10 trillion) stimulus to overcome the
contraction.[3]

Economic Response Task Force

 The Indian economy is expected to lose

over ₹32,000 crore (US$4.5 billion) every day during the first 21-

days of complete lockdown which was declared following

the coronavirus outbreak

 The Government of India has announced a variety of measures to

tackle the situation, from food security and extra funds for

healthcare, to sector related incentives and tax deadline extensions.

 On 27 March the Reserve Bank of India also announced a number

of measures which would make

available 374,000 crore (US$52 billion) to the country's financial

system.

 On 3 April the central government released more funds to the states

for tackling the coronavirus totaling
to 28,379 crore (US$4.0 billion).
 .
Change in FDI rules
 On 18 April 2020, India changed its foreign direct
investment (FDI) policy to curb "'opportunistic
takeovers/acquisitions' of Indian companies due to the
current pandemic",
 With the fall in global share prices, there is concern that
China may take advantage of the situation, leading to hostile
takeovers.[94][95]
98
  While the new FDI policy does not restrict markets, the policy
ensures that all FDI from countries that share a land border
with India will now be under scrutiny of the Ministry of
Commerce and Industry.[96][72][97]

Manufacturing

 Major companies in India such as Larsen and Toubro, Bharat

Forge, UltraTech Cement, Grasim Industries, the fashion and
retail wing of Aditya Birla Group, Tata
Motors and Thermax have temporarily suspended or
significantly reduced operations in a number of
manufacturing facilities and factories across the country.
 iPhone producing companies in India have also suspended a
majority of operations. Nearly all two-wheeler and four-
wheeler companies have put a stop to production till further
notice. Maharashtra.[110]
 Hindustan Unilever, ITC and Dabur India have shut
manufacturing facilities except for factories producing
essentials.[111] Wistron Corp, iPhone producers, have
suspended production following the 21 days lockdown
orders.[112]

E-commerce
 In the third week of March, Amazon announced that it would
stop sale of non-essential items in India so that it can focus
on essential needs.[113] Amazon has followed the same
strategy in Italy and France.[113]
 On 25 March, Walmart-owned Flipkart temporarily
suspended some of its services on its e-commerce platform
and will only be selling and distributing essentials.[114]
 E-commerce companies also look for legal clarity related to
what are "essentials".[117]

99
Defence
 The Department of Military Affairs led by the Chief of
Defence Staff has postponed all capital acquisitions until the
coronavirus pandemic recedes.
 No new major defense deals will be made in the beginning of
the financial year 2020–21.[119]
 While the delivery of S-400 missile systems won't be
affected,[120] the delivery of Rafale fighter jets might be.[121]

Stock markets
 On 23 March 2020, stock markets in India post worst losses
in history.[16] SENSEX fell 4000 points (13.15%) and NSE
NIFTY fell 1150 points (12.98%).[122]
 However, on 25 March, SENSEX posted its biggest gains in
11 years, adding a value of ₹4.7 lakh crore (US$66 billion)
crore for investors.[17][123]

Estimate of economic losses

The Indian economy is expected to lose
over ₹32,000 crore (US$4.5 billion) every day during the first 21
days of the lockdown,
A World Bank report focusing on South Asia said that India's
economy is expected to grow 1.5% to 2.8% for FY21. [1] This will be
the lowest growth for India in 30 years.[2]
The World Bank report said that the pandemic has "magnified pre-
existing risks to India's economic outlook".[1] Confederation of
Indian Industry (CII) have estimated that India's GDP for FY21
will be between 0.9% and 1.5%.[128]

Economic danger versus health risk

The economic danger of the outbreak was exponentially greater
than its health risks".[133]
On 29 April NR Narayana Murthy said that if the lockdown
continues, India may see more death due to hunger than from the
pandemic.[134]
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 CHAPTER-13
LIMITATION OF THE
STUDY

101
 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

Due to constraints of time and resources, the study is likely to suffer from

certain limitations.

Some of these are mentioned here under so that the findings of the study may

be understood in a proper perspective.

The limitations of the study are:

 It may be possible that the data shown in the report may be window

dressed which may not show the actual position.

 Lack of time

 Having a language problem

 We did not have the reliable information because some of them are

illiterate and unable to understand clearly.

102
CHAPTER-14
CONCLUSION

103
 CONCLUSION

 The complete lockdown was a failure from the point of view of the various

sectors of Indian industry.

A few cheered even when some of us lost their jobs, when the daily wage earners,

farmers and laborers remained jobless for months -

 The Ministry of Statistics released India's GDP estimates for Q4 FY20 at 3.1%

while the overall GDP for FY20 is 4.2%

 The ongoing lockdown has put a lot of strain on the manufacturing

industry, which contributes almost 20% of the GDP. Of this, 50%

is contributed by the auto industry. Even prior to the lockdown, the

auto industry was not in a great shape, with sales down by more

than 15% and production cuts of the order of 5 to 10% or more.

 According to CMIE, while the small traders which

includes hawkers may return to work after the lockdown,
the salaried workers will find it difficult to get their jobs
back.
 18 million business-persons are estimated to have lost
employment in April 2020. The average count of
entrepreneurs was 78 million in 2019-20. This fell to 60
million in April 2020.
 15 lakh people become unemployed in the first quarter of the financial year

2017.

 The pandemic is impacting the financial services sector in multiple ways

— from business continuity issues and operational considerations to

104
 the overall financial outlook. As financial services companies are

mobilizing and taking steps to minimize these impacts, they will likely

face short- & long-term implications on both profitabilities as well as

balance sheet items.

 Increase in prices of raw material and other supply expenditures

like fuel,oil etc.

 Personal loan eligibility depends on borrower’s job profile,

monthly income, employer’s profile, credit score, etc. Most banks

and NBFCs do not require loan applicants to have any existing

relationship with them. However, Covid -19 personal loans are for

existing borrowers or those maintaining salary accounts or

pension accounts with the bank. Moreover, applicants need to

have a good track record of loan repayments prior to the

lockdown.

105
CHAPTER-15
BIBLIOGRAPHY

106
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 11. World Health Organization. Novel coronavirus situation
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 www.enwikipedia.org

 www.financialexpress.com

 www.manufacturingtodayindia.com

 www.thehindu.com

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_covid 19 impact #Reference

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