MAPI Equity Research Report
MAPI Equity Research Report
MAPI Equity Research Report
Investment Summary
Market Overview We issue a STRONG BUY recommendation on MAPI.IJ with a target price of IDR 1.113
52 Week Price Range (IDR/Share) IDR 414-1.105
per share using Discounted Cash Flow valuation with the Free Cash Flow to the Firm
Average Daily Volume 20.961.785
Adjusted Beta 1,34 approach. Presenting 74% potential upside from MAPI's closing price on 3 November
Share Outstanding (in million) 16.600 2020 at the price of IDR 640 / share. We see that in the foreseeable future, MAPI will
Market Capitalization (in billion IDR) 10.560
generate wealthy profits with their business expansion strategy marked by robust
Book Value per Share (IDR) 311
PT Satya Mulia growth of BVPS at 4.9% CAGR of 2021F-2025F. The base reasons we recommend buy
Major Shareholder
Gema Gemilang on MAPI are: a) Strong business fundamental performance, b) Robust growth strategy,
and c) Sustainable profitability.
MAPI VS JKSE 1 YEAR
1.200 7.000 Resilient Sales Maneuver and Strong Brand Equity to Potentially Ripping the
1.000 6.000
Indonesia Lifestyle Market
800 5.000
MAPI's business outlook remains promising in the long term. Compared to its peers,
600 4.000
400 3.000
there is the possibility that its revenues will rebound faster as MAPI's target market
200 2.000
comprises middle-upper income class customers who are more financially resilient
12/2019 03/2020 06/2020 09/2020 during an economic downturn due to COVID-19. Digital Strategy maneuver that MAPI
MAPI JKSE
prove from the great managerial team in facing the pandemic by book growth at CAGR
Source: Yahoo Finance
98.98% and contribute at significant 28% revenue for Q2 2020. Beside that Brand
FORECASTED ROE VS CAPEX Equity for MAPI Brand Principals is at a robust and growing demand in the future as
1.000 20% the consumer spending of Indonesia people projected to grow quadruple in 2030.
800 10%
6,2%
Since there is an economic crisis in worldwide, include in Indonesia, most of central
6,0% banks, include Bank Indonesia, decrease their interest rates for several basis points.
5,3%
This policy lead into a discount in national risk-free rate and other financing
5,2%
5,0% instrument, not exception to bank loan. Moreover, with the domestic consumption
4,7% forecast specific in Apparel and Food and Beverages goods in the following years 2011
4,6%
4,5%
– 2030F with CAGR 5% and 5,2% respectively, will lead into prosperous MAPI revenue.
0% 5% 10% 15% Thus, we forecast the MAPI equity value will grow at 28,48% CAGR for 2020F – 2025F
Source: Euromonitor and perpetual growth.
Business Description
MAPI OPERATIONAL SEGMENTS
Incorporated in 1995, MAP is the leading lifestyle retailer in Indonesia with over 2.615
retail stores and a diversified portfolio that includes over 2.600 retail stores, Portfolio
10,10% of over 150 brands, Over 25.000 employees, Presence in 81 Indonesian Cities, Over
110 retail concepts. Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange on 10 November 2004,
13,95%
MAP also has dozens of subsidiaries engaged in various fields, such as retail,
61,42%
department stores, cafes and restaurants, bookstores, manufacturing, and others.
14,54%
In Indonesia, MAPI not only runs its business, it also expands its markets in neighboring
countries: Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, Thailand, etc. In 2016, the major step
expansion of foreign market was signed by the launch of Zara's first store in the
Vietnam. MAPI's sales channel that is rampant in Indonesia and even its expansion in
Retail sales Department Stores
Cafe and Restaurant Others ASEAN countries makes MAPI the market leader of the F&B and Fast Fashion retail
Source: Company Data business, which strengthens its core business as an extension of brand equity for
middle-up consumer brands.
REVENUE BY SEGMENT MAPI also continuously Expanding the market with over 2.600 retail stores across 71
110%
major cities, it dominates the Indonesian market of lifestyle business, projected by
holistic end-to-end merchant value chain of MAPI (Appendix A-1).
• Retail Sales: Retail activity include Trading of clothes and accessories, Trading
of sports equipment and accessories, Trading of toys and accessories on
-10% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q1
Specialty Store (active for sports, leisure & kids, and fashion including
Retail sales Department Stores cosmetics & beauty) sales, earned from 110 retail concept stores sales across
Cafe and Restaurant Others
Indonesia that cover on Fashion & Lifestyle, Sports, Kids industry. This
Source: Company Data segment was the largest revenue contributor (70,3%).
• Café and Restaurants: as a food and beverage retail concepts, Café and
SALES SEGMENT CONTRIBUTION restaurants contribute to second largest revenue for MAPI, at 14,4%
• Department Store: Contribution from Department Stores was Rp2,1 trillion
77,90%
(9,5%), the third largest revenue contributor for MAPI, namely: Sogo, Seibu,
20,14% Galeries Lafayette, and The FoodHall.
• Others: Other Business segment covers Property, Investment, Book store,
1,41% Handicraft trading, Manufacturing, Cellular phones, tablets, computers and
accessories at 5,8% revenue contributor for MAPI. Although, this segment was
0,52%
contributed to least, this segment is predicted to have a new source of
0,03% support, which is Digimap, one of the authorized sellers for Apple products in
Indonesia, that were high in demand during the pandemic.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
5%
Dominant Player in Fashion Retails
-5%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 MAPI has the Largest retail network of 991 stores across 70 cities. Comprehensive
coverage through a multi-tier, multi-format platform with same-sale store growth
-15%
-15%
which continues to increase every year. Inclusive of store-in-store Strong
Sources: Company Data, Team Estimates
understanding of the Indonesian consumer through 20+ years of experience Best-in-
class operational expertise and dominant knowhow in Indonesian sports retail
OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE marketing. MAPI has a fashion retail line that is also a market leader, where one of the
key drivers demands that becomes a source of income is the MAPI sportswear industry
that have 73% market share of Fashion Retail among Indonesia competitors. With
40,00%
opportunity of Indonesia sportswear market that is under-penetrate yet the selling
51% spaces is still can be upwarded (Appendix A-4), MAPI has the potential of quadrupled
Indonesia fashion retail market.
2% Ownership Structure
3%
3,5%
Ownership structure of MAPI is owned by PT. Satya Mulia Gema Gemilang for 51% and
Pt Satya Mulia Gemilang Schroder Investment public for 40%. Besides, MAPI share ownership is also held by foreign investors, with a
Norges Bank E Ohman Fonder
quite high proportion of 3,5% held by schroder investment from United States.
Public
60
15.000 Rebound Commodity Price
40
Despite of the fact that, the aggregate demand for commodities was recover in the
20 10.000
end of November 2020 to date. The happen is reflected by the rebound of
0
5.000 commodities price recently and are projected to be prolonged for the next year due to
-20
economy recovery worldwide, include in Indonesia. Thus, it will affect the
-40 0
12/2019 03/2020 06/2020 09/2020 macroeconomy of Indonesia.
Natural Gas Crude Oil Nickel
Sources: Yahoo Finance, investing.com
INDONESIA CURRENT ACCOUNT Current Account and Trade Balance Get Better
BALANCE FORECASTED Since the domestic aggregate demand of import of the commodity also increase in
parallel with the commodities’ price are rebound, the current account of Indonesia is
0 forecasted by International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be deficit 2,4% in 2021 from
-0,5 forecasted deficit 1,3% in 2020. However, the current account deficit will be narrowed
-1,3
-1
-1,6
down for the FY 2022 to 2025, which will be at level deficit 1,8% in 2025, forecasted
-1,8
-1,5
-2 -2
-1,9 by IMF. This event is aligned with the projection of Inflation rate of Indonesia by IMF.
-2,3
-2 The IMF projected that the Indonesia’s inflation rate will goes up and stable at level
-1,8
-2,5 3% until 2025. In response the projection, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank
-2,4
-3
-3,1 -2,7 Indonesia / BI) is expected will retain the BI7 DRRR (BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate) at
-2,9
-3,5 3,75% in supporting the national economy recovery.
Source: IMF
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Source: IMF Key Retail Industry Demand Drivers: Strong Positive Signals
Breeze Amid Pandemics
REAL RETAIL SALES INDEX Since the Covid-19 outbreaks, people in Indonesia are facing an extreme uncertainty
in many aspects of life, no exception for economy issue. Most people were afraid to
0
consume and prefer to hold their cash for anticipation the prolonged pandemics. Thus,
this will negatively affect towards retail sales in Indonesia, which plummeted and still
-28 at negative level since the Covid-19 outbreaks to date. Nevertheless, the government
-30 -40 of Indonesia struggle and succeed to manage the crisis by taking a decisive response
to the covid-19 to minimize and break the virus spread chain, which shown by the
-61 -60 -59
-65
-60 -…
-67 Government Response Stringency Index. Moreover, the first wave of vaccine of Covid-
-74 -74
19 for Indonesia was arrived at Soekarno Hatta International Airport in 6th of December
2020. The vaccine brings more certainty in the future for the country and recognized
-90
Source: Bank Indonesia as a trigger to consume and produce back for household and corporation.
COVID-19 GOVERNMENT
Robust Domestic Consumption Further
STRINGENCY INDEX Furthermore, the government of Indonesia projected that Gross National Income per
90 capita for 2020 to 2024 will be $4.360, $4.730, $5.110, $5.500, and $5.930 in 2024
80
70 respectively. Thus, Indonesia is classified as upper-middle income country by the
60 World Bank. The recognition is aligned with the consumption level of people within
50
40 the country. Moreover, the unemployment rate of Indonesia is projected decrease to
30
20
the 5,3% level in the following years up to 2025 by IMF. Thus, it will strengthen
10 purchasing power of retail consumer in Indonesia that positively affect to retail
0
industry in Indonesia.
24
47
70
93
1
116
139
162
185
208
231
254
277
300
323
Source: OurWorldInData.org
5.500
5.930 through the revision of The President Policy (Perpres) 54/2020 to The President Policy
6.000 5.110
4.360
4.730 (Perpres) 72/2020. The urgency of this revision was to accommodate the needs of
4.000 government expenditure to handle the Covid-19 and National Economy Recovery
(PEN) program. One of the government expenditures is the tax reduction for
2.000
2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F corporations and SMEs which could help the enterprises to be resilient amid this
Source: RPJMN Narasi 2019 coronavirus pandemic, not exception to MAPI and other retail companies. The
company could save the profit up to 25% of operating profit. Moreover, there is
another response of the government to help and keep safe the enterprises within the
country. Recently, the government just ratificated the Omnibus Law.
WORLD INTERNALTIONAL TOURISM Bargaining Power of Consumer: Sole Luxury Fast-Fashion and Lifestyle Retail Business
ARRIVALS 2020 Market Leader
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Unrivaled exclusive brand partnerships that become the key power to consumer that
0%
-16% MAPI had. Nevertheless, customer In Indonesia still have Jeep Purchaser or Jasa Titip
-20%
-10% choice to shop for brands owned by MAPI in different countries. Jeep purchaser is a
-40%
-65% person or entity that buys the item according to the request of the customer while
-60%
-81% -79% they were travel to some place. This Jeep Purchasing model becomes a very profitable
-97% -91%
-80% -97% business then it started to catch by Indonesian Tax Authority (Ditjen Pajak) to be
-100%
regulated, apart from customer gets the items they want because this service business
-120%
also has the service chat and buy, customer also gets a nominal advantage because
Source: World Trade Organization usually goods purchased via jeep purchaser are cheaper than even online and imposes
0.5% tax on <50 million transaction (Appendix C-1). However, this business model is
currently constrained due to COVID-19, where activities for traveling are declining
worldwide.
SSSG COMPARISON
Source: iPrice
Financial Analysis
Growth Ratio
Equity Growth (%) 20.8% 7.7% 26.0% 35.0% 13.2% -16.4% -18.7% -18.4% 7.3% 14.5% 20.9%
Liability Growth (%) 5.5% 14.9% -4.0% -8.5% -0.1% 86.6% -10.0% 3.6% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7%
Sales Growth (%) 8.5% 10.3% 15.2% 16.0% 14.0% -37.0% 8.2% 8.2% 19.4% 19.4% 19.4%
Solvency Ratio
Debt to Equity Ratio (x) 2.2 2.3 1.8 1.2 1.1 2.4 2.6 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.3
Current Ratio (x) 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4
Cash Ratio (x) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 1.31 2.11 2.78 2.81 9.09 -1.90 -1.13 -1.02 1.89 3.08 4.73
Net Gearing Ratio (%) 123% 140% 88% 50% 31% 138% 130% 158% 137% 111% 83%
Shareholders Indicator
BVPS 1,792 1,930 2,432 328 372 311 253 206 221 253 306
EPS 22.49 125.59 201.60 44.33 56.23 -57.23 -57.99 -46.58 15.12 32.09 53.00
FORECASTED LIABILITY & EQUITY Healthy Capital Structure Growth to Support Expansion
GROWTH From 2015-2019, equity growth has been greater than liability growth (Appendix D-4).
CAGR 2,0% CAGR 4,9%
This indicates that so far, the company has had an organic growth that is greater than
14.000 12.251 11.731 11.935
12.000 11.023 11.425 11.560 the growth in leverage. In 2020, liabilities jump dramatically to IDR 12,2 trillion,
10.000 causing DER jumped to 2,4 x. However, this did not occur due to a drastic increase in
8.000
6.162 6.076 debt, but only because of the impact of implementing the new SFAS, namely SFAS 73
6.000 5.012 5.025
4.389
4.000
4.089
(Appendix D-5) in which it doesn’t affect MAPI’s fundamental performance. Having a
2.000 fairly good historical performance, we believe that in the foreseeable future, equity
-
2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
CAGR will be 4,9% and liabilities CAGR will be 2,0%. Which means, the company can
Liability Equity generate an bigger organic growth from equity rather than leveraged growth from
Sources: Company Data, Team Estimates liability.
124 126
122 118
125 114 We used a Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) DCF valuation method to calculate an intrinsic
101 99
95 92 90 89 94 95 96 value of MAPI and relative valuation to validate the previous DCF valuation. The target
100 86
87
82 84
price from the valuation is Rp1113 / share which indicates that there is about 74%
92
75 85
78 79 82
87
83
79 potential upside from the recent price as of 3rd November 2020 at Rp640 / share. Our
50 key assumptions are as follows:
2008 2020
Source: Investing.com
Strong Revenue Growth
Team noticed that there is a similar pattern in leading indicators, namely consumer
confidence index, between 2008 and 2020. This year, the index was plummeted to its
REVENUE 2008 - 2013 vs 2020F - 2025F bottom at the level of around 80 and the values rally right after hit the bottom point,
30.000 likewise in 2008. Therefore, team expected in the following years will create a similar
25.000 pattern which affected to company’s revenue growth with CAGR 8,21% between
20.000 2020F – 2022F which resulted from the Effective Annual Rates (EAR) of average retail
15.000 sales growth MoM in May 2020 – Sept 2020 and 19,38% in 2023F – 2025F which an
10.000 average of MAPI sales in 2009 – 2011.
5.000
Higher Productivity, More Efficient Working Capital
0
As the business recover and improvements in company’s sales systems, the firm also
Sources: Company Data, Team Estimates
is expected to be more productive in the next years. The team expects that the days
sales inventory will gradually decline from 154 days in 2020F to 128 days in 2025F. This
will lead into more efficient working capital each year to less inventory cost will be
DAYS SALES INVENTORY
needed.
170
154
155
140
134 134
129 128 128 Wider EBIT Margin
125 Aligned with the projected revenue growth, team also expected that there will be a
110 solid growth in MAPI’s EBIT in the following years. Since the company has shown some
2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Sources: Company Data, Team Estimates
initiatives to retain their performance amidst this coronavirus crisis, namely
renegotiate with the landlords for lease stores payment, cuts in employee salaries
(staffs, leaders, and management level), and automation in their offices.
FORECASTED EBIT AND SG&A EXPENSES
TO REVENUE
Effective and Efficient CAPEX allocation
2000 50%
39%
1601
The company is expected to be more careful in terms of business expansion in the
47% 46% 1152 40%
1000
45%
37% following years. This assumption based on the MAPI public expose in 2020 that stated
763
38% 30%
the company’s focus will mostly on a digitalization project, Instead offline stores
20%
0 number expansion. However, there will also an allocation of CAPEX to offline stores
10%
-662 -555
-433 but limited to strategic-location offline stores as the company targets. Thus, it is
-1000 0%
2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F expected to be a positive signal that there will be an effective and efficient-organic
EBIT growth in the future.
Percentage SG&A expenses to Revenue
6
3,6 Stock Price (IDR) PER (x) PBV (x) ROE (%)
4 Stock Code EV/Sales
PBV ROE
considered the real uncertainty condition. Thus, we recognized the peer valuation as
Sources: Company Data, Team Estimates
a minority weight of the valuation, which is 30% out of 100% weight for the valuation.
Risk Analysis
Liquidity Risk
Liquidity risk is the risk that arises due to difficulty providing cash within a certain period of time.
Risk management: MAPI has established an appropriate liquidity risk management framework for the
management of the MAPI’s short, medium and long-term funding and liquidity management requirements.
MAPI also manages liquidity risk by maintaining adequate reserves, banking facilities and reserves borrowing
facilities, and by continuously monitoring forecast and actual cash flows.
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
10,50%
7,50%
6,20% 15%
6,00% 25%
5,30%
5%
5,20%
5,00% 10%
4,70%
4,60% 20%
4,50%
Based on the macroeconomic outlook, MAPI will have the bright future at least for the next five years with the
expectation of domestic consumption will revive soon and the inflation will be more stable further. The revive of
domestic consumption and stable inflation are critical for the certainty of revenue projection in the following years
for retail industry companies, such as MAPI. Moreover, the projection of Indonesia’s Purchasing Power Parity will
rally in the following years is also a good catalysator since the purchasing power of people getting higher, they will
prefer to consume the global brand or import brand, which is most of MAPI’s brand are global brand. Thus, this
phenomenon hopefully will give a positive significant impact to MAPI’s sales in the next years.
Furthermore, the support of government in terms of low rate of BI7 DRRR is a positive catalysator for the
enterprises, include MAPI. Since the central bank rate stay low, the companies could issue the bonds or loan to
banks with a low interest rate. Thus, the companies, include MAPI, will be able to recover soon and expand the
business further with relatively low financial expense. As well as the macroeconomic, the industry level also provide
a solid positive signal ahead both from demand and supply side.
From the industry level, empirically, the people of Indonesia hesitate to consume amid the uncertainty of the end
of coronavirus pandemic. Hence, the arrival of the first vaccine in Indonesia bring new hopes and recognized as a
breeze to national sectors, include retail sectors, since it would increase the certainty of the pandemic situations in
the future and trigger the public to purchase retail goods. Moreover, the e-commerce growth also supports the
competitiveness in retail industry which will be good to MAPI improvement in further. Thus, the competitiveness
level of the MAPI will stronger that today. Likewise, the potential growth in demand in the future, the drivers of
supply side of Industry also help the retail companies, especially MAPI, be more resilient amid this coronavirus
pandemic.
The cooperative landlords that willing to give postponement payment is beneficial to the firm due to it help the
significant reduction in amount of operating expenses. Moreover, the fast response of the government to recover
the national economy, by ratificating the Omnibus Law, will give benefits to the enterprises. Specifically, to the
retail companies, such as MAPI which have a big portion in consignment sales, the Omnibus Law will eliminate the
tax expenses in delivery taxable goods (BKP) on a consignment basis. Thus, MAPI will have a discretion in their
financial expenses in the future.
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING: PORTER FIVE FORCES
APPENDIX C-2
Luas Area (sqm)
Brand
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Department Store 348.012 357.386 379.024 373.634 341.541 350.681
Specialty Stores 240.373 256.859 268.378 271.344 301.993 299.586
Food&Beverage 59.407 52.250 47.994 60.628 76.895 79.279
Other 2.686 2.686 2.686 2.920 2.920 2.920
Area (sqm)
Brand
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Starbucks 34.692 41.489 51.186 64.815 67.334
Krispy Kreme Doughnut 448 677 901 1.017 1.074
Pizza Marzano 2.249 2.530 3.086 3.916 3.942
Cold Stone 618 686 635 722 716
Godiva 66 66 161 108 108
32 45 23
25 55 20
APPENDIX C-4
Line of Business
21 53 26
Company Cafe and 14 64 22
Retail sales Department Stores
Restaurant
Indonesia 22 47 31
MAPI v v v
LPPF v v x 12 62 26
RALS v v x
HERO v x v
16 48 36
ERAA v x x 9 61 30
Singapore
Metro Holdings v v x 7 50 43
Malaysia
Parkson Holdings Bhd v v x 11 40 49
Thailand
Robinson PCL v v x
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Philippines
SM Investment Corp v v v
Decrease Stay the Same Increase
Source: Mckinsey
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
It has been proved by MAPI performance in terms of generating a high and sustainable growth sales
historically (13.87% 2015-2019 CAGR). For the outlook, We see MAPI’s growth in revenue amidst
pandemic (8.21% CAGR) and robust growth after pandemic (19.38% CAGR) fueled primarily by it’s online
channel growth and re-operating offline channel capacity after pandemic ends.
Online channel that MAPI develop during the pandemic, before pandemic arises, online sales
contribution isn’t so significant. But, because of the pandemic arises, MAPI forced to put more concern
on developing the online channel. In Q2 2020, online channel have contributed 28% to the total sales,
increased 406% compared to 2019. In fact, in Q1 2020, online channel only contribute 3.1% from the total
sales. Therefore, robust online channel growth is certainly a factor that will drive sales growth.
Re-operating offline channel in full-capacity, In 2019, online channel only contributes 1.1% to the total
sales (sales volume: Rp242 billion). With 2,317 retail stores, offline channel contributes 98.9% to the total
revenue (sales volume: Rp21.3 Trillion). In other words, MAPI actually has an offline channel capacity
(2,317 retail stores) that can generate that much sales. However, because of the pandemic rises, offline
channel contribution experienced a significant decrease (due to limitation of operating hours and
limitation of visitor capacity by 50%.
During pandemic, MAPI has no plan to forcibly close their stores. So far, the MAPI stores that have been
closed are stores that have indeed expired their contracts (public expose), not stores that have been
forced to close due to the pandemic. Therefore, when the pandemic ends, MAPI still have the offline
channel capacity to generate sales as big as sales in 2019. For now, its just the matter of demand. So,
when pandemic ends in 2023 (Mckinsey), offline channel will operate in full-capacity in which will drive a
high growth in sales. Therefore, the sales will experience a robust growth to catch up the optimal point
(at full-capacity offline channel). Significant sales growth happens because during the pandemic, offline
channel isn’t in the full-capacity. So, when the offline channel returns to operate in full-capacity, MAPI
will experience a significant high growth in sales. Thus, the offline channel starts operating in full capacity,
plus the online MAPI channel which is already efficient because it was forged during Covid. Then MAPI's
sales growth in 2023F-2025F will grow by 19.38% CAGR.
APPENDIX D-1: HISTORICAL SALES APPENDIX D-2: COVID-19 END FORECASTED BY MCKINSEY
GROWTH
25.000 21.579
18.921
20.000 16.306
12.833 14.150
15.000
10.000
5.000
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: Company Data
BALANCE SHEET
Balance Sheet (in billion)
Balance Sheet 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
ASSETS
CURRENT ASSETS
Cash & cash equivalents 503,9 1.525,7 1.286,4 1.412,1 1.816,7 3.128,2 1.242,4 1.183,9 1.437,6 1.755,5 2.134,4
Other financial assets 3,6 215,3 287,9 357,2 453,9 582,1 746,4 957,2 1.227,4 1.574,0 2.018,3
Trade accounts receivable:
Related parties 0,1 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,3
Third parties 334,3 375,3 501,5 389,3 407,7 333,6 361,0 390,7 466,4 556,8 664,7
Other accounts receivable:
Related parties 2,9 2,5 5,2 74,3 7,4 26,4 26,4 26,4 26,4 26,4 26,4
Third parties 230,7 199,9 201,8 237,8 180,5 188,5 188,5 188,5 188,5 188,5 188,5
Inventories 3.356,5 3.007,0 3.066,2 3.230,9 3.615,4 2.985,9 3.235,9 3.507,8 4.173,0 4.973,1 5.947,2
Advances 252,2 248,0 247,0 261,5 236,5 349,6 349,6 349,6 349,6 349,6 349,6
Prepaid taxes 523,1 494,8 511,6 605,1 592,7 721,1 721,1 721,1 721,1 721,1 721,1
Prepaid expenses 488,8 547,3 689,4 744,2 849,1 156,1 156,1 156,1 156,1 156,1 156,1
Derivative financial instruments 0,1 0,1 1,5 0,2 0,2 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0
Total Current Assets 5.696,2 6.616,3 6.798,5 7.312,8 8.160,2 8.472,6 7.028,5 7.482,3 8.747,3 10.302,2 12.207,6
NON-CURRENT ASSETS
Long-term portion of prepaid rent 116,4 114,7 138,6 126,5 163,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Investment in associates 186,5 192,8 212,8 222,2 226,5 198,3 198,3 198,3 198,3 198,3 198,3
Investments in joint ventures 0,0 0,0 0,0 122,2 144,2 138,3 138,3 138,3 138,3 138,3 138,3
Other financial assets 74,9 77,2 54,5 57,2 76,3 78,5 78,5 78,5 78,5 78,5 78,5
Deferred tax assets 63,0 130,8 177,3 191,7 188,4 342,6 342,6 342,6 342,6 342,6 342,6
Investment properties 235,8 231,7 323,6 562,6 565,1 562,9 562,9 562,9 562,9 562,9 562,9
Property, plant and equipment 2.437,9 2.637,0 3.103,3 3.471,3 3.784,8 3.454,1 3.114,4 2.770,1 2.550,6 2.388,0 2.293,4
Right-of-use assets 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 4.511,7 3.918,3 3.286,9 2.676,5 2.091,0 1.535,2
Deferred license fees and brand 90,7 104,0 113,1 136,6 146,6 167,0 167,0 167,0 167,0 167,0 167,0
Refundable deposits 296,5 333,6 371,1 398,4 456,8 464,0 464,0 464,0 464,0 464,0 464,0
Advance for purchases of property, plant, and equipment 246,6 243,5 132,6 31,3 24,8 22,7 22,7 22,7 22,7 22,7 22,7
Goodwill 38,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Others 0,0 1,9 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Total Non-current Assets 3.786,7 4.067,2 4.626,9 5.319,9 5.776,9 9.940,2 9.007,1 8.031,4 7.201,4 6.453,3 5.803,0
TOTAL ASSETS 9.482,9 10.683,4 11.425,4 12.632,7 13.937,1 18.412,8 16.035,5 15.513,7 15.948,7 16.755,5 18.010,6
LIABILITIES & EQUITY
CURRENT LIABILITIES
Bank loans 790,5 752,6 1.463,7 1.347,7 1.492,8 2.861,5 1.593,0 2.118,2 2.354,5 2.528,2 2.609,9
Trade accounts payable:
Related parties 17,2 19,9 34,0 38,7 45,5 26,9 29,1 31,6 37,5 44,7 53,5
Third parties 1.138,3 1.034,4 1.216,9 1.301,9 1.712,4 1.148,0 1.244,1 1.348,7 1.604,4 1.912,0 2.286,6
Other accounts payable:
Related parties 2,2 3,7 0,0 4,3 3,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2
Third parties 608,7 579,9 739,2 672,9 789,2 1.100,5 1.100,5 1.100,5 1.100,5 1.100,5 1.100,5
Taxes payable 146,4 132,7 165,8 177,9 214,2 373,0 418,4 499,6 476,3 540,5 572,5
Accrued expenses 235,4 293,8 389,0 539,1 584,7 750,7 818,0 868,5 858,1 894,2 791,0
Unearned income 204,7 227,5 320,9 335,1 418,2 601,4 686,8 737,7 806,2 733,0 781,3
Current maturities of long-term liabilities:
Bank loan 145,9 170,3 228,3 40,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Bonds payable 0,0 964,7 0,0 948,8 401,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Liabilities for purchase of vehicles 0,0 1,1 6,9 9,2 8,3 7,0 4,3 0,8 0,1 0,0 0,0
Lease liabilities 0,3 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 1.215,6 1.215,6 1.055,8 885,6 721,2 563,4
Derivative financial instruments 0,8 0,6 0,1 3,3 4,1 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0
Total Current Liabilities 3.290,5 4.181,3 4.564,7 5.418,9 5.673,6 8.085,8 7.111,1 7.762,4 8.124,6 8.475,5 8.759,8
NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES
Bank loan 239,1 99,6 0,0 46,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Bonds payable 2.480,0 2.509,1 1.841,9 370,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Liabilities for purchases of vehicles 0,0 2,4 11,1 7,5 5,5 5,3 1,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0
Lease liabilities 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 3.054,5 2.652,8 2.225,3 1.812,0 1.415,6 1.039,4
Tenants' deposits 10,6 11,6 24,6 29,7 36,3 37,5 51,1 69,6 94,7 128,9 175,4
Employment benefits obligation 425,9 459,1 567,6 574,0 698,0 789,7 893,5 1.011,0 1.143,9 1.294,3 1.464,5
Deferred tax liabilities 37,8 33,7 13,3 8,8 11,1 17,6 30,6 43,8 34,8 18,0 36,1
Decommissioning cost 24,0 26,1 29,6 37,1 64,3 82,3 105,3 134,7 172,3 220,4 282,0
Derivative financial instruments 0,0 156,9 130,1 77,6 77,8 177,8 177,8 177,8 177,8 177,8 177,8
Total Non-current Liabilities 3.217,5 3.298,6 2.618,3 1.151,6 893,0 4.164,7 3.912,1 3.662,4 3.435,5 3.255,0 3.175,1
TOTAL LIABILITIES 6.508,0 7.479,9 7.183,0 6.570,5 6.566,6 12.250,5 11.023,2 11.424,8 11.560,1 11.730,5 11.934,9
EQUITY
Capital stock 823,4 823,4 823,4 823,4 825,1 825,1 825,1 825,1 825,1 825,1 825,1
Difference in value of equity transaction with non-controlling
0,0 0,0 565,7 1.222,2 1.194,9 1.194,9 1.194,9 1.194,9 1.194,9 1.194,9 1.194,9
interests
Difference due to change in equity of subsidiaries, associates
15,6 15,6 18,8 34,0 35,7 35,7 35,7 35,7 35,7 35,7 35,7
and joint ventures
Other comprehensive income -48,3 -28,2 -56,0 13,1 -16,7 -79,9 -79,9 -79,9 -79,9 -79,9 -79,9
Other capital - deferred shares purchase plan 0,0 0,0 0,0 4,1 7,4 9,0 9,0 9,0 9,0 9,0 9,0
Other equity component 507,9 507,9 507,9 507,9 507,9 507,9 507,9 507,9 507,9 507,9 507,9
Retained earnings 1.697,1 1.905,6 2.198,9 2.868,6 3.636,7 2.686,6 1.723,9 950,7 1.201,7 1.734,4 2.614,2
Less treasury shares -20,9 -20,9 -20,9 -20,9 -20,0 -20,0 -20,0 -20,0 -20,0 -20,0 -20,0
Total Equity Attributable To The Owners Of The Company 2.974,9 3.203,5 4.037,8 5.452,4 6.171,0 5.159,3 4.196,6 3.423,4 3.674,4 4.207,2 5.086,9
Non-controlling Interests 0,0 0,0 204,6 609,7 1.199,5 1.002,9 815,8 665,5 714,2 817,8 988,8
Total Equity 2.974,9 3.203,5 4.242,4 6.062,2 7.370,5 6.162,2 5.012,4 4.088,9 4.388,7 5.025,0 6.075,7
TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY 9.482,9 10.683,4 11.425,4 12.632,7 13.937,1 18.412,8 16.035,5 15.513,7 15.948,7 16.755,5 18.010,6
INCOME STATEMENT
Income Statement (in billion)
Income Statement 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Net Revenues 12.832,8 14.149,6 16.305,7 18.921,1 21.578,7 13.584,0 14.699,7 15.907,2 18.990,0 22.670,2 27.063,7
Cost of goods sold and direct cost -6.830,6 -7.276,6 -8.449,6 -9.869,4 -11.322,6 -7.799,3 -8.452,3 -9.162,5 -10.900,2 -12.990,0 -15.534,6
Gross Profit 6.002,2 6.873,0 7.856,1 9.051,7 10.256,1 5.784,6 6.247,4 6.744,6 8.089,7 9.680,2 11.529,1
Selling expenses -4.641,7 -5.033,0 -5.673,9 -6.437,5 -7.051,7 -5.395,6 -5.692,2 -6.005,2 -6.205,7 -7.222,4 -8.405,7
General and administrative expenses -837,9 -952,1 -1.061,7 -1.108,7 -1.273,7 -1.050,9 -1.110,0 -1.172,5 -1.120,9 -1.306,2 -1.522,0
Operating Profit 522,6 887,9 1.120,5 1.505,5 1.930,8 -661,9 -554,9 -433,0 763,2 1.151,7 1.601,5
Finance cost -399,3 -420,7 -403,6 -536,1 -212,4 -348,7 -491,6 -424,1 -404,6 -373,6 -338,9
Share in net income/loss of associates and joint ventures -25,9 -31,0 -5,6 -1,4 17,0 -34,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Final tax expense -20,5 -21,9 -23,3 -39,4 -30,3 -20,5 -23,4 -25,4 -30,4 -37,0 -42,1
Gain (Loss) on disposal/sale of property, plant and equipment
-31,3 -42,7 -78,8 215,6 -31,8 -10,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
and investment properties
Gain (loss) on foreign exchange -32,4 34,2 12,4 35,7 -7,9 15,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Interest income 11,3 9,5 33,2 30,4 46,5 67,8 33,1 36,8 41,3 42,6 44,7
Other gains and losses 123,7 -13,9 -57,4 -37,0 -86,3 23,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Income Before Tax 148,1 401,5 597,5 1.173,4 1.625,5 -968,9 -1.036,8 -845,7 369,4 783,7 1.265,2
Income tax expense -118,0 -193,0 -247,4 -359,5 -462,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 -92,3 -195,9 -316,3
Net Income 30,1 208,5 350,1 813,9 1.163,5 -968,9 -1.036,8 -845,7 277,0 587,8 948,9
CASHFLOW STATEMENT
Cash Flow Statement
(Increase)/Decrease in Right of Use Assets -548,1 -593,2 -641,9 -766,3 -914,8 -1092,1
(Increase)/Decrease in Fix Assets -382,3 -413,7 -447,6 -626,4 -747,8 -892,8
Total Cash Flow from Investing Activities -930,4 -1.006,8 -1.089,5 -1.392,7 -1.662,6 -1.984,9
Total Cash Flow from Financing Activities 966,2 -1.677,2 -66,4 -348,0 -387,3 -452,4
RETAINED EARNINGS
Retained Earnings (in million) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Beginning Retained Earnings 1.653 1.697 1.906 2.199 2.869 3.637 2.687 1.724 951 1.202 1.734
Add : Profit 37 208 335 736 933 -950 -963 -773 251 533 880
Less : Dividends 0 -415 -66 -166 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
End Retained Earnings 1.697 1.906 2.199 2.869 3.637 2.687 1.724 951 1.202 1.734 2.614
DEBT SCHEDULE
Debt Schedule 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Cash Balance (End of Last Year) 1.817 3.128 1.242 1.184 1.438 1.756
Plus : CFO & CFI 345 -209 8 602 705 831
Plus : CFF (Before L.O.C) 0 -406 -428 -413 -396 -376
Less : Minimum Cash Balance 1.151 1.245 1.347 1.608 1.920 2.292
Total Cash Available or (Required) from L.O.C 1.011 1.269 -525 -236 -174 -82
Line of Credit 2.861,5 1.593,0 2.118,2 2.354,5 2.528,2 2.609,9
Long-term debt:
Bank loan 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Bonds payable 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Liabilities for purchases of vehicles 5,3 1,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0
Lease liabilities 3.054,5 2.652,8 2.225,3 1.812,0 1.415,6 1.039,4
Current maturities of long-term liabilities:
Bank loan 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Bonds payable 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Liabilities for purchase of vehicles 7,0 4,3 0,8 0,1 0,0 0,0
Lease liabilities 1.215,6 1.215,6 1.055,8 885,6 721,2 563,4
Interest Expense
Interest rate Line of credit 7,33% 7,33% 7,33% 7,33% 7,33% 7,33%
Interest rate Long-term Bank loan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Interest rate Long-term Bonds payable 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Interest rate Long-term Liabilities for purchases of vehicles 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Interest rate Long-term Lease liabilities 8,05% 8,05% 8,05% 8,05% 8,05% 8,05%
Interest expense long-term debt 189,1 328,3 288,0 240,7 194,6 150,5
Interest expense line of credit 159,6 163,3 136,0 164,0 179,0 188,3
Total Interest Expense 348,7 491,6 424,1 404,6 373,6 338,9
10.000
2.000
-
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Liability Equity
Source:
Source:Company
CompanyData
Data
APPENDIX D-5:
PSAK 73, Leases
PSAK 73 requires the recognition of most leases on the statement of financial position. PSAK 73 effectively
removes the classification of leases as either finance or operating leases and treats all leases as finance
leases for lessees with optional exemptions for short-term leases where the term is 12 months or less.
The accounting treatment for lessors remains essentially unchanged, with the requirement to classify
leases as either finance or operating leases.
6%
4%
2,0%
2%
0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: Company Data
VALUATION
WEIGHTED VALUATION
Method Value Weighted Fair Value
DCF Valuation 1.403 70% 982
Relative Valuation 437 30% 131
Weighted Fair Value 1.113
Current price (3 Nov 2020) 640
Potential Upside 73,95%
Peer Comparison
We conduct a peer comparison by using market multiples P/E ratio, PBV ratio, Return on Equity (%), and EV/Sales
ratio as our multiples. We compare MAPI to its peers in trade subsectors in Indonesia which have similar business
model with the company. We only compare to national companies, instead of international peers, due to different
government response policy amidst this pandemic. The different policy will lead into different performance of the
enterprises. Based on the peer comparison, we know that P/E ratio of MAPI is below among others. However, the
PBV ratio, indicates that the price of MAPI’s share to its book value is above the average among others. It is normal
since MAPI has strong brand equity which is make sense that the company is valued more expensive than its peers.
Moreover, this is not significantly critical since the performance of MAPI among its industries is relatively better,
which is reflected by better ROE performance and EV/sales ratio among others amid this coronavirus pandemic.
GCG & ESG ANALYSIS