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    Decision Science Final Answer

    Uploaded by

    Bhavya Patel
    The document discusses probability concepts using examples of airline on-time performance and social media usage. Part 1 calculates the probability that a flight leaving on time belonged to different airlines (Amira, Biyas, Chinar) using Bayes' theorem. It finds the probability is highest for Amira at 0.5970. Part 2 discusses independent and dependent variables in experiments and regression analysis, defining key terms like slope, intercept, and the regression equation relating independent and dependent variables. Part 3 shows a regression analysis conducted in Excel, reporting statistics like R-squared, F value, coefficients, standard errors, and predicted vs. actual values. It summarizes the key outputs.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Decision Science Final Answer

    Uploaded by

    Bhavya Patel
    24 views8 pages
    The document discusses probability concepts using examples of airline on-time performance and social media usage. Part 1 calculates the probability that a flight leaving on time belonged to different airlines (Amira, Biyas, Chinar) using Bayes' theorem. It finds the probability is highest for Amira at 0.5970. Part 2 discusses independent and dependent variables in experiments and regression analysis, defining key terms like slope, intercept, and the regression equation relating independent and dependent variables. Part 3 shows a regression analysis conducted in Excel, reporting statistics like R-squared, F value, coefficients, standard errors, and predicted vs. actual values. It summarizes the key outputs.

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    DECISION SCIENCE FINAL ANSWER

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    The document discusses probability concepts using examples of airline on-time performance and social media usage. Part 1 calculates the probability that a flight leaving on time belonged to different airlines (Amira, Biyas, Chinar) using Bayes' theorem. It finds the probability is highest for Amira at 0.5970. Part 2 discusses independent and dependent variables in experiments and regression analysis, defining key terms like slope, intercept, and the regression equation relating independent and dependent variables. Part 3 shows a regression analysis conducted in Excel, reporting statistics like R-squared, F value, coefficients, standard errors, and predicted vs. actual values. It summarizes the key outputs.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    24 views8 pages

    Decision Science Final Answer

    Uploaded by

    Bhavya Patel
    The document discusses probability concepts using examples of airline on-time performance and social media usage. Part 1 calculates the probability that a flight leaving on time belonged to different airlines (Amira, Biyas, Chinar) using Bayes' theorem. It finds the probability is highest for Amira at 0.5970. Part 2 discusses independent and dependent variables in experiments and regression analysis, defining key terms like slope, intercept, and the regression equation relating independent and dependent variables. Part 3 shows a regression analysis conducted in Excel, reporting statistics like R-squared, F value, coefficients, standard errors, and predicted vs. actual values. It summarizes the key outputs.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 8

    NMIMS Global Access

    School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)


    Course: DECISION SCIENCE

    ANSWER 1:
    Part 1:
    Probability tree diagram for airline Amira
    Flight scheduled on time is 80% out of 100% is 0.8

    Probability tree diagram for airline biyas


    Flight scheduled on time is 30% out of 100% is 0.3

    Probability tree diagram for airline chinar


    Flight scheduled on time is 20% out of 100% is 0.2

    AIRLINE PRIOR CONDITIONAL JOINT POSTERIOR


    P(EI) P( X l Ei ) P( X ∩ Ei)

    AMIRA 0.5 0.8 (0.5)(0.8)=0.4 0.4/0.67 = 0.59


    (0.3)(0.65)=
    BIYAS 0.3 0.65 0.19 0.19/0.67=0.28

    CHINAR 0.2 0.4 (0.2)(0.4)= 0.08 0.08/0.67=0.19


    P(X) = 0.67
    TREE DAIGRAM
    0.4
    X(0.8)
    AMIRA Y(0.2) 0.6
    0.5
    AIRLINE BIYASX(0.65) 0.19 =0.67
    0.3Y(0.35)
    0.2X(0.4) 0.81
    CHINAR 0.08
    Y(0.6)
    PART 2: 0.92
    Let A₁, A₂, and A₃ represent the events of the flight was of Amira, Biyas and Chinar respectively,
    Let B be the event 'The flight left on time'.
    Then we are to find the value of P(A1|B).
    Using Bayes’ theorem formula we get:
    P(A1∣B) == P(B∣A1)P(A1)
    P(B∣A1)P(A1)+P(B∣A2)P(A2)+P(B∣A3)P(A3)
    = 0.80 x 0.50
    0.80x 0.50 + 0.65 x 0.30 + 0.40x0.20
    = 0.4
    0.4+0.19+0.08
    = 0.4
    0.67
    = 0.5970.
    Probability that it was flight Amira is 0.5970.
    ANSWER 2:
    PART1:
    An independent variable is the variable you manipulate or vary in an experimental study to explore
    its effects. It’s called “independent” because it’s not influenced by any other variables in the study.
    Independent variables are also called:
    Explanatory variables (they explain an event or outcome)
    Predictor variables (they can be used to predict the value of a dependent variable)
    Right-hand-side variables (they appear on the right-hand side of a regression equation).
    These terms are especially used in statistics, where you estimate the extent to which an independent
    variable change can explain or predict changes in the dependent variable.
    A dependent variable is the variable that changes as a result of the independent variable
    manipulation. It’s the outcome you’re interested in measuring, and it “depends” on your
    independent variable.
    In statistics, dependent variables are also called:
    Response variables (they respond to a change in another variable)
    Outcome variables (they represent the outcome you want to measure)
    Left-hand-side variables (they appear on the left-hand side of a regression equation)
    EXAMPLE:

    You design a study to test whether changes in room temperature have an effect on math test scores.
    Your independent variable is the temperature of the room. You vary the room temperature by
    making it cooler for half the participants, and warmer for the other half.
    Your dependent variable is math test scores. You measure the math skills of all participants using a
    standardized test and check whether they differ based on room temperature.
    PART 2:
    In regression analysis ,the slope intercept form of the equation of the line often takes the form,
    Y= mx + b
    Where,
    M=slope of the line
    B= y intercept of the line
    In statistics ,the slope –intercept form of the equation of the regression line through the population
    points is
    y ˆ = b0 + b1x
    where
    y ˆ = the predicted value of y
    b0 = the population y intercept
    b1 = the population slope
    For any specific dependent variable value, yi

    Yi = β0 + β1 xi+ €i

    Where,
    xi = the value of the independent variable for the ith value
    yi = the value of the dependent variable for the ith value
    b0 = the population y intercept
    b1 = the population slope
    Î=i the error of prediction for the ith value
    Unless the points being fitted by the regression equation are in perfect align-ment, the regression
    line will miss at least some of the points. In the preced-ing equation, Îi represents the error of the
    regression line in fitting these points. If a point is on the regression line, Î=i 0.

    Part 3:
    REGESSION MODEL RUN IN EXCEL:
    SUMMARY
    OUTPUT

    Regression Statistics
    Multiple R 0.964839243
    R Square 0.930914764
    Adjusted R Square 0.921045445
    Standard Error 570.4967452
    Observations 9

    ANOVA

    Significance
    df SS MS F F
    Regression 1 30699341.13 30699341 94.32411 2.593E-05
    Residual 7 2278265.754 325466.5
    Total 8 32977606.89

    Standard
    Coefficients Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
    -
    Intercept 1444.296095 963.2291326 1.499431 0.177442 833.378871 3721.971062
    REGION/DISTRICT 0.12578977 0.012951914 9.71206 2.59E-05 0.09516336 0.156416181

    Lower Upper
    Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%
    3721.971062 -833.37887 3721.971062
    0.156416181 0.09516336 0.156416181
    RESIDUAL OUTPUT

    Predicted
    Observation 5512 Residuals
    1 8520.096464 -183.096464
    2 8630.162513 157.837487
    3 8833.061412 -5.06141213
    4 9870.198068 -820.198068
    5 10334.6139 -184.6139
    6 10652.86202 583.137981
    7 11579.30368 958.696323
    8 13163.87741 -2.87741325
    9 13951.82453 -503.824534

    PART 4:
    The regression equation is found under Coefficients at the bottom of ANOVA. The slope or
    coefficient of x is 0.12578 and the y-intercept is 1444.296. The standard error of the estimate the
    problem is given as the fourth statistic under Regression Statistics at the top of the output, Standard
    Error = 570.49. The r2 value is given as 0.930 on the second line. The t test for the slope is found
    under t Stat near the bottom of the ANOVA section on the “REGION/DISTIRCT” (x variable) row,
    t = 9.71. Adjacent to the t Stat is the p-value, which is the probability of the t statistic occurring by
    chance if the null hypothesis is true. For this slope, the probability shown is 2.59. The ANOVA
    table is in the middle of the output with the F value having the same probability as the t statistic,
    2.593E-05, and equaling t2. The predicted values and the residuals are shown in the Residual
    Output section.
    ANSWER 3:
    Suppose there are 25 users that university have asked about the like/dislike of instagram reels

    By using binomial formula we have n=25 , r =15 , r!=0.75


    nCr = n!/[r! (n-r)!]
    A)Exactly 15 would be 25C15*0.75^15*0.25^10
    =0.0417
    Exactly 15 of them love instagram reels

    By formala = number of people who love instragram reels


    Total Number of people like /dislike instagram reels
    = 15 = 3 = 0.6
    25 5

    Exactly 20 of them love instagram reels


    By above formula:
    = 20 = 4 = 0.8
    25 5

    -
    B)Exactly 20 would beBy using binomial formula
    By using binomial formula we have n=25 , r =20 , r!=0.75
    nCr = n!/[r! (n-r)!]

    25C20*0.75^20*0.25^5=0.1645

    .
    ANSWER 3b:
    A
    IT is given that the number of daily hits in an bharatdarshan,an internet based travel agency
    ,follows a normal distribution with the mean of μ =10,000 and the standard deviation of the sigma
    is σ is 2400
    Let us find probability of getting more than 12000 hits
    P(x>12000) = 1-P(X- μ ≤ 12000-10000)
    σ 2400
    = 1- P(Z ≤ 0.833)
    = 1 -0.7937 (using standard normal)
    = 0.2023
    Thus the probability of getting more than 12000 hits is 0.2023
    B:
    Now let us find the probability of getting more than 9000 hits
    P(x<9000) = P(X- μ ≤ 9000-10000)
    σ 2400
    = P(Z ≤ -0.4167)
    = 0.3372

    Thus the probability of getting fewer than 9000 hits is 0.3372

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