Banking History
Banking History
Banking History
BY
TESFAYE KASSA
ID. SGS1/0117/2004
OCTOBER, 2013
ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
BY
TESFAYE KASSA
ID. SGS1/0117/2004
OCTOBER, 2013
ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
BY
TESFAYE KASSA
ID. SGS1/0117/2004
______________________________ _____________________
Advisor Signature & Date
______________________________ _____________________
External Examiner Signature & Date
______________________________ _____________________
Internal Examiner Signature & Date
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
A research report requires not only substant ial co mmit ment and perso nal
sacrifice o f the researcher but also it depends on support and encouragement
of many others including pro fessio nals, family and co lleagues. I would like
to express my appreciat io n to the fo llowing persons for their suggest io n,
support and contribut io n.
First, I would like to thank the almight y GOD, the Co mpassio nate, the Most
Merciful and Source of Knowledge & Wisdom, who bestowed upon me the
healt h, the power of co mmunicat ion and the audacit y to accomplish this
thesis.
I would like to sincerely thank my advisor Dr. Degefa Deressa for his
constructive co mments, valuable suggest ions and good guidance. I equally
thank him for his kindness and necessary encouragement.
I also would like to thank to the staff o f Nat ional banks who gave me bank
sector and macroeconomic data.
Then my heartfelt grat itude goes to my wife, Mulu G/Egziabher for her
cont inuous encouragement and my daught er So lyana Tesfaye for creat ing
conducive environment where I focused on my study.
My appreciat io n also goes to all ZTF Consult ancy staffs who gave me
technical support and encouragement in co nduct ing the research.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
DIV Diversificat io n
LIQ Liquidit y
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
ABSTRACT
The study was carried out to empirically explore the bank specific, industry
specific and macroeconomic determinants of Ethiopian commercial banks’
performance using unbalanced 10 years (2003-2012) annual audited
financial statements of 16 banks and macroeconomic data. It covers 100% of
the population (commercial banks in Ethiopia) which are operating full years
in the study period. The study used three indicators of profitability as
dependent variables: Return on Asset (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE) and
Net Interest Margin (NIM) and ten explanatory variables: Bank Size, Capital
adequacy, Operational efficiency, Liquidity risk, Income Diversification, and
Loan to Deposit Ratio from bank specific factors, Bank Concentration and
Size Bank System from industry specific factors and Real GDP Gro wth rate
and Annual Inflation Rate from macroeconomic factors. Fixed effect was used
for the ROA model, and Random effect for ROE and NIM models based on
Hausman test.
The empirical result revealed that all bank specific factors except Loan to
Deposit Ratio are statistically significant in determining profitability of
Ethiopian commercial banks. Among them Cost Income Ratio and Liquidity
negatively affect bank performance. There are also significant associations
between Concentration and Size Bank System with profitability. However, no
evidence is found about the relation between macroeconomic factors and
performance of banks. In general, the overall empirical findings provide
evidence that the profitability of Ethiopian commercial banks are mainly
dominated by bank-specific factors which are on the hands of the
management of the banks. So, the study suggests to the banks’ managers and
policy makers to give high concern on the internal factors of profitability and
set direction to manage the most dominant factors of performance.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Table of Content
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................................... i
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ...................................................................... ii
ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. iii
Table of Content ........................................................................................................................ iv
List of Table .............................................................................................................................. vi
List of Figures........................................................................................................................... vii
CHAPTER ONE ......................................................................................................................... 1
INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Back ground of the Study ................................................................................................ 1
1.2 Background of Banking Industry in Ethiopia ......................................................................... 3
1.3 Statement of the Problem ...................................................................................................... 5
1.4 Research Questions ............................................................................................................... 7
1.5 Objectives of the Study ......................................................................................................... 7
1.6 Hypothesis ............................................................................................................................ 8
1.7 Significance of the Study....................................................................................................... 9
1.8 Delimitation/Scope of the Study .......................................................................................... 10
1.9 Organization of the Paper .................................................................................................... 10
CHAPTER TWO ...................................................................................................................... 11
LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................................... 11
2.1 Analytical Literature ........................................................................................................... 11
2.1.1 Bank performance ............................................................................................................ 11
2.1.2 Bank Performance Indicators. ........................................................................................... 12
2.1.3 Bank Specific Variables ................................................................................................... 15
2.1.4 Industry Specific Determinants ......................................................................................... 19
2.1.5 Macroeconomic Determinants .......................................................................................... 20
2.2 Empirical Literature ............................................................................................................ 22
CHAPTER THREE .................................................................................................................. 29
Research Design and Methodology ........................................................................................... 29
3.1 Research design .................................................................................................................. 29
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
v
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
List of Table
Table 4.2 Hausman fixed rando m test for the model ROA as a dependent
variable ................................................................................ 37
Table 4.3 Hausman fixed rando m test for the model ROE as a dependent
variable ................................................................................. 38
Table 4.4 Hausman fixed random test for the model NIM as a dependent variable .... 38
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
List of Figures
Independent Variables.......................................................... 22
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
Financial inst itut ions are inst itutions that provide financial service for its
clients or members. The most important financial service provided by
financial inst itut ions is rendering service as intermediaries to facilitate the
flow o f money t hrough the econo my. One of the most important financial
intermediaries is banking 1 industry.
Today, the bank performance has become a favorite subject for many
stakeho lders such as custo mers, investors, government and the genera l
public. A stable and efficient financial system r epresents efficient allocat io n
of resources and beco mes the foundat io n of rising of financial performance o f
an organizat ion which leads to achieve their ult imate object ives (Raza et al,
2011). Banks’ regulatory authorit ies are direct ly liable to evaluate the
performance o f each banking business and they should have to sense any
1
origin of the word bank can be traced as Banck in German to mean joint stock fund, Banco in Italian to mean heap of money,
Banco/Banque in France to mean bench/chest a place where valuables are kept, and Bank in English as an institution money as deposit
for lending (K.P. kandasami,2003)
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
The Ethiopian financial system consists o f the Nat ional Bank of Ethiopia that
is responsible to regulate the who le banking system, Co mmercial Banks
(government and do mest ic private banks), Insurance Co mpanies (government
and do mest ic private), a Public pensio n scheme, a Savings & Credit Co -
operations, Micro Finance Inst itutio ns, T-bills and bonds markets, re-
discount facilit y for government papers, int er-bank money and forex markets,
and a large number of Iqubs (Weeks et al, 2004).
In 1975, fo llo wing the fall o f the imperial government, there was a major
change o f econo mic strategy in the banking sector. All privately owned banks
were nat ionalized and co ncentrated into Commercial Bank o f Ethiopia. After
the socialist regime was overthrown in 1991, the licensing and supervisio n o f
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Banking Business Proclamat io n No. 84/1994 was issued in 1994 which led to
the beginning o f a new era for Ethiopia banking sector. Immediately, aft er
the enact ment of t he proclamat ion, the private banking co mpanies re-emerged
and that leads to have 16 registered private banks and 3 public owned banks
operating in Ethiopia as o f the current year 2013 (NBE, 2013).
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
A sing le bank is highly connected with other banks for payment system
and/or other various funct ions. The failure of a sing le bank not only affects
it s shareho lders and depositors rather it also affects the performance o f other
banks and the who le econo my o f the country. The recent global recessio n can
be taken as an example o f eco no mic disaster that occurred by the failure o f
banking business. So, the government o f any country must have a high
concern about the performance o f banks.
Profitabilit y is crit ical for a bank to maintain cont inuing act ivit y, for its
shareho lders to acquire fair returns, and for supervisors as it guarantees to
make sound decisio n, even in t he context of a riskier business enviro nment.
Profitabilit y is a shock absorber against unexpected losses due to the fact that
it strengthens its capit al posit io n and improves future profit abilit y through
the invest ment of retained earnings.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Profit is the essent ial prerequisit e for survival in a co mpet it ive banking
inst itut ion. Since t he basic aim o f every bank management is to maximize
profit, understanding the real factors that affect the banks performance
should be known by a concerned body. Besides making profit, a sound and
profitable banking sector is better able to withstand negat ive shocks and
contribute to the stabilit y o f the financial system. Harker and Zenio s (1998)
report shows that the bank performance is a funct ion o f it s strategic cho ices,
strategy execut ion, qualit y o f services, and the enviro nment. Accordingly,
profitabilit y difference for those banks operating in similar macroecono mic
enviro nment can be assured through t he success o f their co mpet it ive
strategies and other managerial procedure. Comparat ive advantages,
therefore, may arise fro m t he bank’s size, asset growth, and risk management
qualit y, market share, ownership structure, and concentration index. Thus,
these explanatory variables o f banks’ performance should be extracted in
empirical researches. That is why the determinants o f bank performance have
attracted the interest of academic research as well as o f bank management,
and bank supervisors.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
banking sector of Ethiopia in particular by ident ifying the key factors that
affect the profitabilit y o f Ethiopian co mmercial banks.
The main research quest ion is: what factors determine financial performance
of co mmercial banks in Ethiopia.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
To evaluate the linkage between Loan to Deposit ratio and banks performance
To find out the correlat ion between income diversificat ion and banks
performance
To dist inguish the relat io n between concent ration and banks performance
To disco ver the effect GDP growth rate on performance of co mmercial banks
1.6 Hypothesis
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
H8: There is a positive significant relationship between bank size system and
performance of Ethiopian commercial banks
H10: There is a positive significant relationship bet ween GDP growth and
performance of Ethiopian commercial banks.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
This paper consists o f five chapters wit h different sect ions and sub-sect io ns,
and it was structured as fo llows. Chapter one presents the introduct ion for the
main part of the paper. Chapter Two reviews the most significant analyt ical
and empirical studies. Chapter three focuses to present the methodology o f
the study. Chapter four also provides the analysis o f result s and discussio n.
Chapter five, as usual, gives conclusio n and reco mmendat ion wit h po licy
implicat ion and further research direct ion.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
Better bank performance increases the reputatio n and image fro m public or
market point of view. The econo mic literature pays a great deal o f attentio n
to the performance of banks, expressed in terms of co mpet it io n,
concentratio n, efficiency, productivit y and profitabilit y (Bikker and Bos,
2006). The key driver o f banks’ performance remains earnings, efficiency,
risk-taking and leverage (ECB, 2010). A co mprehensive and co mmo nly
accepted determinant of performance for financial inst itutio ns like banks
does not exist in the literature. Instead, different researchers have attempted
to estimate empirical factors affect ing the performance o f banks using
financial data.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Bank performance proxy measures are different in various lit eratures. In most
banking literature, such as Rao & Tekeste (2012), Ongore and Gemechu
(2013), Alper and Anbar (2011), Athanasoglou, et. al., (2005), Alexiou and
Sofoklis (2009), and Sufian and Cho ng (2008), on the issue o f invest igat ing
the factors that influence t he performance of the bank are mo st commo nly
emplo yed o ne or two or all o f the three alt ernat ive measures (ROA, ROE and
NIM) were used. All t hese three standard measures o f pro fitabilit y are
considered under this study on the basis o f annual account ing data similar to
the approach fo llowed by (Ameur and Mhiri, 2013). Each rat io looks at a
slight ly different aspect of bank profit abilit y (Athanasoglou, 2006)
Return on Asset
ROA is one o f the major ratios that indicate the profitabilit y o f a bank and it
has emerged as the key rat io for the evaluation of bank profit abilit y and has
beco me the most co mmo n measure o f bank profit abilit y in the empirical
literature Rao & Tekeste (2012), Alkhat ib, (2012), Alexiou and So foklis
(2009), and Ana et. al. (2011). The ROA is defined as the rat io of net profit s
to total assets. It measures the abilit y o f a bank’s management to generate
inco me by ut ilizing the co mpany assets alt hough it may be misleading due to
off-balance-sheet act ivit ies (Athanasoglou, 2006, Dietricha and Wanzenriedb,
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
2009). In other words, it shows how efficient ly the resources of the co mpany
are used to generate profit. A higher ROA shows that the co mpany is more
efficient in using its resources.
Return on Equit y.
The other financial rat io to measure the bank performance is ROE that
reflects how much profit a bank earned compared to the total amount of
shareho lder equit y invested or found on the balance sheet and it measure s
how effect ively a bank management is using shareho lders’ funds. The ROE is
defined as the rat io of net profit s to total equit y. A business that has a hig h
return on equit y is more likely to be one that is capable o f generat ing cash
internally. Thus, the higher the ROE the more effect ive the management in
utilizing the shareho lders capital and t he better the co mpany is in terms o f
profit generat io n.
ROE is the product of ROA and assets-to-equit y rat io (equit y mult iplier that
measures financial leverage). Essent ially the ROE–ROA relat io nship clearly
illustrates the fundamental tradeo ff that banks face between risk and return,
whereas the equit y mult iplier reflects the leverage or financing po licies, i.e.
the debt-equit y proportion that the bank management used to fund the bank.
Athanassoglou, (2005) argues that an analysis based on ROE disregards the
risks associated wit h leverage, o ften a consequence o f regulat io n. On the
other hand, Staikouras and Wood (2011) emplo y ROE as an appropriate
profitabilit y measure, arguing that for many European banks the o ff-balance-
sheet business makes a significant co ntribution to total pro fit. The earnings
generated fro m these act ivit ies are excluded fro m the deno minator of ROA.
According to Rivard and Tho mas (1997), bank pro fitabilit y is best measured
by ROA for two primary reaso ns. One first reason is that ROA is not
distorted by high equit y mult ipliers and the second one is that ROA reflects a
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Finally, the NIM variable focuses on the profit earned on int erest act ivit ies.
It is defined as the net interest inco me divided by total earning assets which
contained Deposit wit h foreign Banks, Treasury Bills, Ot her
Invest ments/bonds, Sundry Debtors & Other debit balances, and Total Loans
Advances. It measures the difference between the interest inco me generated
by banks and the amount o f interest paid on borrowed funds, relat ive to the
amount of their (interest earning) assets. It means that NI M measures t he gap
between the interest inco me the bank receives on loans and securit ies and
interest cost of its borrowed funds wit h respect to the average amount of the
assets on which earned inco me is generated in that time period. While the
ROA measures the pro fit earned on assets and reflects how well bank
management uses the bank’s real invest ment resources, the NIM focuses on
the profit earned on lend ing, invest ing and funding act ivit ies. It reflects the
cost of bank intermediat io n services and the efficiency o f the bank. The
higher the net interest margin, the higher the bank's profit and the more
stable the bank is. However, a higher net interest margin could reflect riskier
lending pract ices associated wit h substant ial loan lo ss provisio ns.
The problem that may encounter on the financial rat ios particularly wit h ROA
and ROE is that the total values of assets and equit y may not remain constant
overtime, so comput ing the rat ios only by the ending balance o f total asset or
equit y may not be just ifiable. Hence, average values of consecut ive year -end
balance sheet figures are normally used to capture changes in assets during
the fiscal year. Thus, fo llowing t he footpaths of previous studies (Kosmidou,
2008; Dietrich and Wanzenried, 2009) and taking into account the
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Literatures, in calculat ing ROE and ROA, differ in using pre-tax and post-tax
profits. Some st icks on before tax profit especially in the study o f cross
country banks performance/pro fitabilit y analysis due to different taxat ion
policy emplo yed in different country. However, in studies that are limit ed to
the boundaries o f one nat ion, the cho ice between pre-tax and post-tax profit s
may not be very important because all the banks will be required to pay tax
as per the country’s corporate tax law which is equally applicable to all the
banks (Guru et.al., 1999). Therefore, since the co mmercial banks operat ing in
Ethiopia are also subject to the same tax law, the profit after tax (net profit)
has been used as numerator in co mput ing the ROA.
Bank Size
Bank size is measured by the natural log of total assets. Size is included in
the regressio n as a proxy o f bank size to capture the possible cost advantages
associated wit h the econo mies of scale. In the lit erature, mixed relat ionships
are found between size and pro fitabilit y. Large banks are likely to have an
advantage o f engaging in higher invest ment diversificat ion than small banks.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Since this diversificat ion reduces risks and econo mies of scale lead to
increase operat ional efficiency t hrough minimizing costs, posit ive
relat io nship is expected between bank size and profit abilit y (Rao & Tekeste,
2012 and Alper and Anbar, 2011. On the other hand, in the diversificat ion o f
bank branches, for instant, the operational expense may get higher and the
variable ma y exhibit negat ive effects Ameur and Mhiri, 2013 and Sufian and
Chong, 2008. The impact of bank size on its pro fitabilit y cannot be
theoretically ant icipated (Ongore, and Kusa, 2013; Dietricha and
Wanzenriedb, 2009). Hence, the expected sign o f the coefficient of bank size
is unpredictable based o n academic lit erature. This analysis used the
logarithm o f total asset to capture the potent ial non-linear effect of size
similar to Athanasoglou et al. (2008) Alexio u and So foklis (2009).
Capital adequacy (Equit y-Asset Rat io) reflects the capit al strength or capital
structure of a bank. It is one of the bank specific factors that influence the
level of bank profit abilit y. Strong capital adequacy rat io shows the internal
strength o f the bank to withstand lo sses during crisis and it increases safet y
for depositors during unstable macroecono mic condit io ns. Large size o f
equit y is expected to reduce the bank risk and increases a bank’s
creditworthiness in reducing it s fund ing cost for a bank wit h higher equit y to
assets rat ios will normally have a lower need o f external funding. However,
lower capit al rat ios in banking imply higher leverage and risk, which
therefore lead to greater borrowing costs. CAR variable is included in the
regressio ns to examine the link between profit abilit y and bank capitalizat ion
(Dietricha and Wanzenriedb, 2009). Most literatures result s show that it has
posit ive relat io nship wit h pro fitabilit y (Rao & Tekeste, 2012; Ameur and
Mhiri, 2013; Ongore and Gemechu, 2013; Athanasoglou, et. al., 2005; and
Sufian and Chong, 2008. On the co ntrary, some like Ayanda et. al. (2013)
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
revealed negat ive relat ions. Especially against ROE, it is expected to have a
negat ive relat io nship due to dilut io n effect.
Liquidit y Risk
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Non-interest inco me is other alternat ive means o f inco me other than earning
fro m loans. Banks generate inco me fro m off-balance sheet such as fro m
letters of credit and this non-interest inco me would represent a key source of
bank revenue (Rasiah, 2010). Thus, the ratio o f no n-interest inco me o ver
average assets is entered in the regressio n analysis as a proxy measure o f
inco me diversificat ion onto non-tradit io nal act ivit ies. Non-interest inco me
consists o f service charges, commissio n, guarantee fees, net profit fro m sale
of invest ment securit ies, and foreign exchange pro fit. Thus, Bankers have
found a pro mising channel for boosting the inco me statement by diversifying
their inco me sources. The variable is expected to exhibit posit ive relat io nship
with bank profitabilit y.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
negat ive impact of the loan rat io on the banks profitabilit y may accrue
Alexiou and So foklis (2009) and Ana et. Al.(2011).
It measures the market structure in the banking industry by means o f the bank
concentratio n variable. Market concentration is measured by using the
Herfindahl-Hirschman (H-H) index (Athanasoglou et al., 2005) or the rat io o f
the three largest banks’ assets to the total assets o f the ent ire banking sector.
In this study market concentrat ion is measured like the previous researcher
(Athanasoglou et al., 2005) by using the Herfindahl-Hirschman (H-H) index,
which is the sum of the squares o f market share of the sample banks inc luded
in this particular study. The high concentratio n rat io in the market creates
greater than average efficiency in these markets yielding a posit ive pro fit
concentratio n relat io nship (Berger, and Hannan, 1989). In Ethiopia banking
business environment study conducted by (Belayneh, 2011) indicated that the
existence o f negat ive and significant relatio nship between the declining
market concentration and Ethiopian co mmercial banks pro fitabilit y. it is
expected that a higher bank concentratio n has a posit ive impact on
profitabilit y. On the other hand, a higher bank concentration might be the
result of a tougher compet it ion in the banking industry, which would suggest
a negat ive relat io nship between performance and market concentration. As a
result, the overall effect of market concentration on banking performance is
again indeterminate.
Size Bank System (SBS): reflect the importance o f bank financing in the
econo my and it is measured by t he rat io of total assets o f banks to GDP.
Regarding to the bank size system, Demerguç-Kunt and Huizingha (1999)
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
provide the evidence that small size bank system allow to high margins and
profits, when they explore the bank profitabilit y o f 80 countries over the
1988-1995 period. As well, BenNaceur (2003), reports that the growth of
bank system does not necessary contribute to improve pro fitabilit y o f the
banking sector in Tunisia.
Inflat ion (INF): is also one o f the microeconomic determinants and used to
represent the changes in t he general price level or inflat io nary co ndit io ns in
the econo my and it is measured by annual country inflat io n rate. Abreu and
Mendes (2000), point out a negat ive relat ionship between the inflat ion rate
and bank’s pro fitabilit y in European countries. Likewise Ayadi and
Boujelbene (2012), report a negat ive effect o f inflat io n on Tunisian bank
profitabilit y o ver the 1995- 2005 period. In t he same way, Demirguc-Kunt
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
and Huizinga (1999) suggest that banks wit h high capital rat io in developing
countries tend to be less pro fitable in inflat ionary enviro nments.
Conceptual Framework
Independent Variables
Annual Inflation
Rate
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Rao & Tekeste (2012), conducted the research on the topic “Determinants o f
Profitabilit y o f Co mmercial Banks in a Developing Country: Evidence fro m
Ethiopia” emplo ying unbalanced panel data of Ethiopian co mmercial banks
under the period 1999/00 to 2008/09. In the study return on average asset
stands for bank profit abilit y ind icators, seven int ernal and t hree external
factors were regressed against ROA o f the banks. The finding o f the study
shows that the most important determinants o f banks’ profitabilit y in
Ethiopia are all the int ernal factors used in the study: equit y to asset ratio,
non-int erest inco me to total inco me and bank size have posit ive and
significant impact on the profitabilit y, the loan lo ss reserve to total loans is
found to have negat ive impact on profit abilit y though it is statist ically
insignificant, liquidit y and operat ional efficiency are also negat ively affect
the profitabilit y o f the banks. But the external factors (concentratio n,
inflat io n and GDP) are found to be stat istically insignificant . My study is
different fro m the above one since it ut ilized a time period o f 2003-2012.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
capital to net loans (in this part icular study) is also significant ly better in
private sectors showing the abilit y o f private banks in meet ing un-expected
operational losses. On the other hand public banks were significant ly better
in cost management measures as t hey are able to keep the proportion o f costs
to assets lower t han that of private sector banks. Besides in managing
noninterest expenses and general and staff expenses Public sector banks were
better than private one. However, in terms o f liquidit y, no difference was
observed between the private and public sector banks. My study is different
fro m the study by Kapur and Abebaw since it utilized a t ime period o f 2003 -
2012 and considered 100% of the populat ion.
The paper conducted by Ameur and Mhiri (2013), to ident ify the explanatory
factors of banks’ Performance on ten Tunisian co mmercial banks fro m 1998
to 2011 incorporate bank-specific, industry-specific and macroecono mic
factors. The empirical result o f t he GMM est imator technique shows a hig h
degree o f persistence of bank performance. Thus, the findings suggest that
the bank capitalizat ion and the best managerial efficiency have a posit ive and
significant effect on the Tunisian bank performance. However, concentratio n
and bank size have negat ive a negat ive and a significant effect on
performance. On the other hand, the macroecono mic variables do not have a
significant effect on bank performance, except inflat ion which seems to
affect negat ively bank’s net interest margin. Moreover, private owned banks
seem to be more profitable than state owned ones.
Ongore and Gemechu (2013), used linear mult iple regressio n model and
Generalized Least Square on panel data to estimate the determinants of
financial performance o f co mmercial banks in Kenya. Their finding reveals
that specific factors such as capit al adequacy, asset qualit y and management
efficiency significant ly affect the performance o f Kenyan co mmercial banks,
except for liquidit y variable. The relat io nship between bank performance and
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
capital adequacy and management efficiency was found to be posit ive and for
asset qualit y the relat ionship was negative. But the overall effect o f
macroecono mic variables was inconclusive and the role of ownership ident it y
on the financial performance o f co mmercial banks was insignificant. Even if
it is found that GDP has negat ive correlat ion wit h performance indicators, the
relat io nship is insignificant.
Azam and Siddiqui (2012), applied mult iple regressio n technique to analyze
the internal and the external determinants o f Pakistan banking industry. The
study, on t he purpose o f co mparing the profitabilit y o f do mest ic and foreign
banks and analyzing t heir determinants under the period 2004 to 2010 (on
quarterly basis), find t hat foreign banks are more profitable than all do mest ic
banks, and they have also different profitabilit y determinants. Empirical
results show that foreign banks are less affected by the macroecono mic
factors of the host country than do mest ic banks and they have a higher
profitabilit y margin in Pakistan. They conclude that local controlled
commercial banks in Pakistan are more profitable than foreign controlled
ones as far as the vo lume o f the pro fit is concerned which is reflected in their
earnings per share but the foreign co ntrolled co mmercial banks in Pakistan,
as a who le are more capital efficient as compared to the local controlled
commercial banks subject to few except ions.
Alkhat ib, (2012), with the purpose to empirically examine the financial
performance o f five Palest inian co mmercial banks listed o n Palest ine
securit ies exchange. In this paper, Financial performance has been measured
by using three indicators; Internal–based performance measured by Return on
Assets, Market-based performance measured by Tobin’s Q model (Price /
Book value o f Equit y) and Econo mic–based performance measured by
Economic Value add. The study emplo yed the correlat ion and mult iple
regressio n analysis o f annual t ime series data fro m 2005-2010 to capture the
24
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
impact of bank size, credit risk, operational efficiency and ass et management
on financial performance measured by t he three indicators, and to create a
good-fit regressio n model to predict the future financial performance o f these
banks. The finding implies that operational efficiency and asset management
individually have significant impact on ROA, when they used alo ng wit h
bank size and credit risk, they add significant effect on Tobin’s Q and EVA.
San1 and Heng (2013), conducted the study aims to invest igate the impact of
bank-specific factors which include the liquidit y, credit, cap ital, operat ing
expenses and the size o f co mmercial banks on their performance, which is
measured by return on average assets (ROAA) and return on average equit y
(ROAE). The result s imply t hat rat ios emplo yed in t his study have different
effects on the performance of banks in both China and Malaysia, except
credit and capital rat ios. Operat ing rat ios influence performance o f banks in
China, but this influence is not true for Malaysian banks regardless o f the
measure o f performance.
The study o f Alper and Anbar (2011) focuses on the bank specific and
macroecono mic determinants o f Pro fitabilit y in Co mmercial Bank o f Turke y
under the period 2002 to 2010. It uses ROA and ROE as dependent variables
to examine the determinant o f banks profitabilit y. The finding t he research
reveals that asset size and non-int erest income have a posit ive and significant
effect on bank profit abilit y. However, size of credit portfo lio and loans under
fo llow-up have a negat ive and significant impact on bank profit a bilit y. Wit h
regard to macroecono mic variables, only the real interest rate affects the
performance o f banks posit ively. These results suggest that banks can
improve their pro fitabilit y through increasing bank size and non-interest
inco me, decreasing credit/asset ratio. In addit io n, higher real interest rate can
lead to higher bank profit abilit y.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
The Greek banks working paper invest igates the bank-Specific, industry-
specific and macroecono mic determinants of pro fitabilit y by using GMM
technique to a panel data over the period 1985 to 2001 (Athanasoglou, et. al.,
2005). In the study the pro fitabilit y indicator is measured by two alternat ive
as a dependent variables i.e. the ratio of profits to assets (ROA) and the
profits to equit y rat io (ROE).The results show that all bank-specific
determinants, except size, affect bank profitabilit y significant ly as capit al
and labor productivit y posit ive and operating expenses negat ive impact on
profitabilit y. The macroecono mic determinants: inflat ion and cyclical output
also clearly affect the performance o f the banking sector. Moreover, the
industry specific factors: ownership and industry co ncentratio n are found
insignificant. The effect of the business cycle is posit ively correlated to
profitabilit y o nly when output is abo ve its trend. Even if t his empirical
framework incorporates the tradit ional Structure-Conduct- Performance
(SCP) hypothesis, no evidence is found in support of t he SCP hypothesis as
the effect of industry concentration on bank profitabilit y was found
insignificant.
Other similar study on Greek banks was conducted by Alexio u and Sofoklis
(2009) to examine the effects of bank-specific and macroecono mic
determinants of Greek bank pro fitabilit y, by assuming that the two broad sets
of variables (ROA and ROE) that control bank profitabilit y are a funct io n of
the specific sector as a who le as w ell as the macroecono mic environment
within which the sector operates. A panel data approach was applied to six
Greek banks using an empirical framework that incorporates the tradit io nal
Structure-Conduct- Performance (SCP) hyp othesis. The finding suggests that
mo st of the bank-specific determinant s were significant ly affect bank
profitabilit y. However, there is relat ively weak relat io nship between size and
profitabilit y, and ambiguous picture were considered on macroecono mic
factors.
26
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Sufian and Cho ng (2008), look for the factors that influence the profit abilit y
of Philippines banking sector by using ROA as a dependent variables during
the period 1990–2005. The empir ical evidences suggest that all the bank-
specific determinant variables have a statist ically significant ly impact on
bank pro fitabilit y. Amo ng them size, credit risk, and overhead expensed are
negat ively affect the bank profitabilit y, whereas non-int erest inco me and
capitalizat ion have a posit ive impact on it. Concerning the macroecono mic
factors, the findings show that except inflation which has a negat ive impact
on bank pro fitabilit y, GDP, the growth in mo ney supply, and the level o f
stock market capitalizat ion have not significant ly explained the profitabilit y
of Philippines banks.
Ana et. Al. (2011) conduct research on the topic Determinants o f Bank
Profitabilit y in Croatia wit h two fo ld objectives; to provide a synt hesis o f
relevant empirical researches on t he determinants o f co mmercial banks’
profitabilit y and to establish empirical verificat ion of pro fitabilit y
determinants o f Croatian banks using dynamic panel analysis under the stud y
period 2003 to 2008 on 28 co mmercial banks. Return o n assets (ROA) is used
as a proxy indicator to measure pro fitabilit y in t he analysis. The re sult o f the
study reveals that higher lo an growth and equit y financing, stable base o f
deponents, prudent credit risk and market risk management as well as the
growth o f fee based act ivit ies are co mparat ive advantages of banks in Croatia
in achieving extraordinary levels o f return on assets. On the other hand, the
average interest inco me and t he average interest expense proved to be
statist ically insignificant.
Ayanda et. al. (2013) search for the determinant of Nigerian Banks’
Profitabilit y in the case o f First Bank of Nigeria Plc by applying the
econo metric analysis o f Co-integratio n and Error Correction Technique using
annual t ime series data fro m 1980 to 2010. The empirical result shows that
bank size and cost efficiency did not significant ly determine bank
27
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
28
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
CHAPTER THREE
The object ive o f the study is to invest igate the determinants o f co mmercia l
banks’ performance in Ethiopian banking industry. Fixed effects, and rando m
effects model were used aft er testing the valid it y o f the assumpt ion o f the
models by using the Hausman test for each t hree mo dels (Brooks, 2008) by
incorporating banks specific, industry specific and macroecono mic variables
for t ime period o f 10 years (2003 to 2012) on sixteen Ethiopian co mmercial
banks.
To detect the factors that affect the Ethiopian co mmercial banks performance,
all co mmercial banks operat ing in Ethiopia are the populat ion for the study.
According to the Natio nal bank o f Et hiopia, there are 19 licensed banks in
the country. Development Bank o f Ethio pia is out of co mmercial banks
category because its missio n is different from the co nvent ional co mmercia l
banks. Thus fro m the remaining 18 co mmercial banks , Debub Glo bal Bank
and Enat Bank were excluded since there are new and have no data for the
year 2012. Thus, the research includes all co mmercial banks operating in
Ethiopia who have reported financial data up to the end o f June 2012. This
means that the study covers 100% o f the populat ion (co mmercial banks in
Ethiopia) which are operat ing full years in the study period. Therefore, the
study has a time series segment spanning fro m the period 2003 up to 2012
and a cross sect ion segment which considered sixt een Ethiopian co mmercia l
Banks wit h unbalanced data of 111 observatio ns.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
The study used seco ndary data to invest igate the bank specific, industry
specific and macroecono mic determinant s o f the bank performance in
Ethiopian co mmercial banks. Therefore, both the annual audited financial
statements of the who le banks, which are conso lidated on July 30 of each
year and calculated in Ethiopian Birr, and the macroecono mic variables, were
gathered fro m Nat ional Bank of Ethiopia.
Quant itative met hods of data analysis can be o f great value to the researcher
who is attempt ing to draw meaningful result s on determinant factors on any
subject area fro m a large body of data. Since quant itat ive data analysis
methods have taken full advantage o f user-friendly statist ical packages such
as, Eviews, SAS, SPSS and Stata, this study emplo yed Stata for reporting the
summary result s in numerical terms wit h a specified degree of confidence.
Generally three types o f data that are available for empirical analysis: (1)
cross sect io n, (2) time series, and (3) pooled data (Gujarat i, 2004). Time
series data, as the name suggests, are data that have been co llected over a
period o f t ime o n one or more variables. Cross-sect io nal data are data on one
or more variables co llected at a single point in t ime. Panel data have the
dimensio ns o f both time series and cross-sectio ns (Brooks, C. 2008).
The term panel data refers to the pooling of observat io ns of separate unit s
(countries, banks, groups of people etc.) on the same set of variables over
several t ime periods. Thus, the panel data analysis was adopted for
30
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
conduct ing our econo metric modeling. Panel data are a special t ype of pooled
data and it consists o f observat io ns o n the same cross-sect ional or individual
unit s over several t ime periods. Panel data have, therefore, space as well as
time dimensio ns. Using the panel data has several benefits alo ng wit h certain
limitat io ns as well. So me o f the Panel data techniques advantage over cross-
sect ion or time series data are panel data can take heterogeneit y explicit ly
into account by allo wing for individual-specific variables, give more
informat ive data, more variabilit y, less co-linearit y amo ng variables, more
degrees of freedo m and more efficiency. Panel data can capture and measure
effects that are not detectable in cross-sect ion time-series analysis, as well as
provide a plat form on which to test more co mplicated behavioral models
(Gujarat i, 2004). Panel data can be classified as balanced and unbalanced
data sets. In this research unbalanced panel used because each cross-sect ional
unit o f the study does not have the same number of time series observat io ns
due to difference in their date of establishment to absorb 10 years o f data.
The most co mmo n technique in the literature is the Fixed Effects (FE) model.
If it is assumed that εi and the X’s are uncorrelated, Rando m Effect (RE)
model may be appropriate, whereas if εi and the X’s are correlated, FE ma y
be appropriate. The FE model assumes that the marginal effects of t he
explanatory variables on t he dependent unit are the same for all units (i.e.
firms). The co nstant term is allowed to vary amo ng the units to account for
the differences between units. It has also been shown that the FE est imator is
consistent even when the RE model is valid or even if the t ime-invariant
component of the error term is correlated with the regressors (John ston and
Dinardo, 1997; Nguyen, J., 2006). As Gugarati (2004) cited Wooldridge who
contends that in many applicat io ns, the whole reason for using panel data is
to allow the unobserved effect [i.e., εi] to be correlated wit h the explanatory
variables. Moreover, Brooks (2008) said that the rando m effects model is
more appropriate when the ent it ies in t he sample can be thought of as having
been rando mly selected fro m the populat ion, but a fixed effect model is more
31
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
plausible when the ent it ies in the samp le effect ively const itute the ent ire
populat ion. Therefore, given the above contentio n and the who le populat io n
are considered in t his specific study, the fixed effects est imates would be the
reference po int in the study and then the discussio n focuses on the result s o f
the fixed effect model (ROA model).
In this sect io n, the met hodology adopted for the emp irical analysis to
recognize t he determinants o f performance in Ethiopian bank is introduced.
Accordingly, there is a need to estimate a relat ionship o f the fo llowing for m
using the panel data consist ing o f sixt een banks’ data across a period fro m
2003 to 2012. The model quest ion is
Y it = α + βX it + ε i t ………………………….…………….…. (1)
32
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Where
SIZE i,t = The natural logarit hm o f total asset for bank i at time t
33
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
CHAPTER 4
4.1 Results
This part presents the outcomes o f the descript ive statist ics for main
variables invo lved in the regressio n mo del. I introduce summary stat ist ics for
all variables in Table 4.1. The key figures; including mean and standard
deviat ion wit h minimum and maximum value were reported. This was
generated to give overall descript io n about data used in the model.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
As shown in t he Table 4.1, the descript ive statist ics o f the study, there are
111 observat io ns due to unbalanced data collected fro m sixteen co mmercia l
banks over the period 2003 to 2012. The mean for ROA, ROE and NIM are
2.483216, 22.84898 and 4.276335 percent, and the standard deviat io ns are
1.771959, 14.82329 and 1.754202 percent respect ively wit h a minimum of -
3.952926, -20.20195 and 0.509554 percent, and a maximum o f 6.717239,
77.70969 and 10.78294 percent respect ively.
There are 10 independent variables used in this study. A natural log o f total
asset of t he bank is used to represent the size o f the bank wit h it s mean and
35
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
standard deviat io n o f 7.997515 and 1.337425 respect ively. The mean and
standard deviat ion o f Equit y to Total Assets ratio (CAR) are .1568205 and
.1086271 respect ively. Cost to Income ratio (CIR) which indicates the
efficiency of expense management also obtained a mean of 48.10494 and a
standard deviat ion o f 50.40102. The liquidit y aspect of the banks which
measured as Liquid Assets to Total Deposit s (LIQ) has a mean 41.36666 and
a standard deviat io n o f 11.24477. The loan deposit rat io and diversificat io n
also shows a mean o f 67.64045 and 3.980383, and a standard deviat io n o f
19.67331 and 1.971953. Concerning industry specific ind icators the mean and
standard deviat ion o f concentrat ion (HHI) are .5158196 and, .0744845, and
that of bank size system is the mean o f .0180599 and a standard deviat ion o f
.0063668. For macroecono mic variables, the mean o f GDP and INF are
.0992781 and 17.96772 respect ively. The standard deviat ion o f GDP and INF
are .0372754 and 11.63648 respect ively.
4.1.2 Regression
This sect ion presents over all the emp irical results o f the regressio ns analysis
for banks pro fitabilit y which is measured by return on asset, return on equit y,
and net interest margin. They have been regressed to understand t he bank
specific, industry specific and macroeconomic determinants.
There are broadly two classes o f panel data est imator approaches that can be
emplo yed in empirical research: fixed effects models and rando m effects
models. Before starting regressio n analyses to examine the relat io nship
between bank performance measures and independent variables, it has to be
decided that whether fixed or rando m effect is appropriate to the specific
36
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
model used. Therefore; the first issue is that choosing between fixed effects
(FE) and a rando m effects (RE) model based on the Hausman test where the
null hypothesis says that rando m effects model is appropriate than the fixed
effects model.
Table 4.2 Hausman fixed rando m test for the model ROA as a dependent
variable
Coefficients
(b) (B) (b-B) sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
fixed random Difference S.E.
chi2(7) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
= 30.89
Prob>chi2 = 0.0001
According to Chris brooks (2008), if the p-value for the Hausman test is less
than 1%, indicat ing that the rando m effects model is not appropriate and that
the fixed effects specificat ion is to be preferred. Based on this fact, , p-value
for the Hausman test was 0.001, i.e. less than 1%, so running fixed effect
model is appropriate.
37
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Table 4.3 Hausman fixed rando m test for the model ROE as a dependent
variable
Coefficients
(b) (B) (b-B) sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
fixed random Difference S.E.
chi2(6) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
= 1.89
Prob>chi2 = 0.9293
Table 4.4 Hausman fixed rando m test for the model NIM as a dependent
variable
Coefficients
(b) (B) (b-B) sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
fixednim randomnim Difference S.E.
chi2(7) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
= 6.31
Prob>chi2 = 0.5035
38
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
i. Heteroscedast icit y
The assumpt io n for heteroscedast icit y is that the variance of the errors is not
constant across observat ion, thus, standard est imat io ns will be inefficient. In
other words, heteroscedast ic occurs in a series o f rando m variables only when
the rando m variables have different variance. Furthermo re, error term in each
period is not constant because the est imat or and error term is influence by
each other.
The White’s test is usually used as a test for heteroscedast icit y. In t his test,
a regressio n o f the squares o f t he residuals is run o n the variables suspected
of causing the heteroscedast icit y, and cross products (Gujarat i, 2004).
n*R 2 = 2 (n)
Number of observat ion is 111 and the R 2 for ROA, ROE and NIM are 0.715,
0.729 and 0.203 respect ively and the calculated value will be 79.365, 80.919
and 22.533 for ROA, ROE and NIM. The 2 obtained fro m 2 table is
82.3581 for 0.90 confidence. If n*R2 < 2, heteroscedast icit y can not be
confirmed. Therefore, no heteroscedast icity problem occurred for all the
abo ve calculated amounts of R 2 are less than the crit ical 2.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Autocorrelat ion problem occurs when the error term in each period is
influenced by each other so that the variance o f error term is not in an
optimal level. The term autocorrelat ion may be defined as “correlat ion
between members o f series o f observat ions ordered in t ime [as in t ime series
data] or space [as in cross-sect ional data]. The most celebrated test for
detecting serial correlat ion is that develo ped by statist icians Durbin and
Watson. It is popularly known as the Durbin – Watson d stat ist ic.
According to Table 4.8 model summary Durbin-Watson (d) amount for ROA,
ROE and NIM are 1.829, 1.536 and 1.368 respect ively. Therefore, the result
40
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
When the co llinearit y o f the variable wit h the other regressors increases, VIF
also increases and in the limit it can be infinite. So me aut hors therefore use
the VIF as an indicator of mult ico llinearit y though they are not free o f
crit icism. The larger the value of VIF, the more “troubleso me” or co llinear in
the variable will be. As a rule of thumb, if the VIF o f a variable exceeds 10,
which will happen if R2 exceeds 0.90, that variable is said be highly
collinear.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Therefore, the model is free o f mu lt ico llinearit y problem as VIF is less than
10.
The other testing of mult ico llinearit y is examinat ion o f the correlat io n
coefficients that allows studying the null hypothesis o f no correlat io n
between explanatory variables. This study considered 0.8 as t he limit value
of the correlat io n coefficient to confirm the null hypothesis. So, if correlat io n
between two variables exceeds 0.8, we have to reject the nu ll hypothesis; it ’s
not possible to hold the two variables in t he same model. (Gujarat i, 2004). As
shown in the Correlat ion Matrix annex, all correlat ion coefficients are
smaller than 0.8 at which t he pheno menon of co linearit y is pronounced.
Then, there is no problem o f mult ico llinearity.
42
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
43
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Model Summary
As Table 4.8 exhibit s the model summary, ROE has the highest F-value,
26.952, fo llowed by ROA, 25.122 and NIM, 2.542. The model fit
(“ANOVA”) has to be seen to check the goodness o f fit before looking at R-
square first. Significance o f the model (“Did the model explain the deviat io ns
in the dependent variable”) shows the goodness of fit o f the model. The
lower this number, the better the fit will be. Typically, if “Sig” is greater
than 0.05, we conclude that our model could not fit the data. Based on table
4.10 all three mo dels are significant due to the values o f sig. are less t han
0.05 as 0.000 for ROA and ROE, and 0.009 for NIM which indicates that all
models are good models to measure banks profitabilit y because if sig < 0.01,
the model is significant at 99%. If the model was not significant (a
relat io nship could not be found) or "R-square is not significant ly different
fro m zero."
44
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
The explanatory power of the model, t he R square, for ROA, ROE and NIM
models are 0.715, 0.729 and 0.203 respect ively, which means that 71.5% of
the variance in ROA and 72.9% of variance in ROE are explained by the
given ten independent variables co nsidered in this paper. For NIM model, the
independent variables explain only 20.3% of NIM and the remaining 79.7%
are unexplained in t he model which means t here are another addit io nal
variables that are important in explaining NIM that have not been considered
in this study. Therefore, ROA and ROE models are better reliable than NIM
to measure pro fitabilit y in Ethiopian co mmercial banks in relat ion to the ten
explanatory variables used in this paper due to the fact that the higher R
square the better explained by the independent variables in the model.
ROA suggested that all the bank specific variables: the bank size, capital
adequacy, cost inco me rat io, inco me diversificat io n, and liquidit y except loan
45
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
to deposit ratio have significant relat io nship wit h bank pro fitabilit y. Amo ng
them Size, CIR, and LIQ are significant at 5% and CAR, DIV are significant
at 1% level that shows they are the mo st crit ical determinants in t he ROA
model. In the same way, industry specific determinants: concentration and
bank size system are both significant at the same level o f significant (0.05).
However, macroecono mic variables: inflat ion is significant at 10%. And real
GDP growth rate is insignificant in the ROA model.
ROE model revealed that some of the bank specific factors can determine,
with different significant level, the profitabilit y o f co mmercial banks in
terms of earnings fro m average equit y. Bank size and diversificat ion are
significant at 1% level o f significance and loan to deposit ratio is significant
at 10%. However, capital adequacy, cost inco me ratio, and liquidit y are
insignificance at ROE model. Concentration has impact on ROE at 5% and
GDP at 10% level o f significance, but size bank system fro m the industr y
specific factors and Inflat ion fro m macroecono mic factors are not
significance when we measure bank profit abilit y by ROE.
In t he third model, amo ng bank specific determinants, bank size and capital
adequacy are significant at 5%. All other bank specific determinants are
insignificant. Inflat io n has impact on NIM with a probabilit y o f 1% and bank
size system also has effect on the net interest margin o f the bank at
significant level o f 10% However, others such as concentratio n fro m industry
specific and GDP fro m macroecono mic factors are insignificant.
4.2 Discussion
According to the descript ive statist ics reported in Table 4.1, the Ethiopian
commercial banks earn on an average posit ive profit o ver the last decade.
However, the difference between minimum and maximum clearly shows that
46
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
there are large differences in pro fitabilit y amo ng the Ethiopian co mmercial
banks. That means, the mo st profit able commercial bank in Ethiopia earned
6.72 cents o f net inco me fro m a single birr of asset invest ment and 77.71
cents per birr fro m the banks equit y. In proportion to this the ba nk has a
margin o f 10.78 percent. And the maximum losses incurred are a lo ss o f 3.95
and 20.2 cents on each birr of asset invest ment and o n each birr o f
shareho lder equit y respect ively wit h the margin o f 0.51 percent. On the other
hand, the revenue earned throughout the study years is an average o f 2.48
cents fro m each birr invested by t he bank and 22.85 cents fro m their equit y
with the margin o f 4.28 percent.
The discussio n and conclusio n o f the study st ick on the result o f ROA model
whenever there is discrepancy amo ng t heir result s. This is because o f t hat
ROA is not distorted by high equit y mult iplier s (ROE disregards the risks
associated wit h leverage), and it reflects a better measure of a bank’s abilit y
to generate returns on its assets as well as it considers the disparit y in the
abso lute magnitude of the profit s t hat may be related to size. Since around
80% of the independent variables are unexplained in the NIM model, it
should not be taken as a measure model in the discussio n. Moreover, based
on the reasons stated in the methodology part that fixed model is most
commo n technique in the lit erature, and more plausible when the ent ire
populat ion are considered, the discussio n has to focus on the results o f the
fixed effect model (ROA model).
Bank size, natural log o f total assets, is found to have statist ically significant
and posit ive impact on Ethiopian co mmercial banks’ pro fitabilit y as depicted
in the tables 4.9 ROA and NIM are significant at 0.05 and ROE at
0.01significance level respect ively. The Hypothesis number 1 that states
there is posit ive significant relat ionship between bank size and performance
of Ethiopian co mmercial banks is co nsist ent wit h the result o f regressio n.
47
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
The posit ive coefficient indicates that larger co mmercial banks tend to earn
higher pro fits than smaller co mmercial banks, and vice versa. It support s the
earlier studies (Sufian and Habibullah, 2009; Kosmidou, 2008; and Kosmidou
et al, 2006). This posit ive associat ion between bank size and pro fitabilit y o f
commercial banks may conform that larger banks could be benefited fro m
econo mies of scale.
The find ing o f the study also shows t hat equit y to asset rat io (CAR) is
posit ively and highly significant to bank profitabilit y t hat measured by ROA
and NIM as wit nessed in the regressio n results which agree wit h Hypothesis
number 2 that said there is posit ive significant relat ionship between capital
adequacy and performance of Ethiopian commercial banks. The relat io nship
between capit al adequacy and pro fitabilit y indicates that Ethiopian
commercial banks in t he study period were focusing on making sound lending
decisio ns which reaffirms t hat banks wit h more capital tended to engage in
higher loan risk lending for higher pro fits. On t he contrary, the study implies
that banks that are relat ively poorly capitalized were so conservat ive in
extending loans and thus their profit abilit y would be adversely affected. The
empirical finding is consistent wit h the findings o f other researches which
are conducted by Berger (1995), Demirguc-Kunt and Huizinga (1999),
Staikouras and Wood (2003), Goddard et al. (2004), Pasiouras and Kosmidou
(2007), and Kosmidou (2008). These studies po int out that those well-
capitalized banks face lower risks o f go ing bankrupt, building their credit
worthiness, and reducing t heir cost of funding which will ult imately enhance
their profit margin. However, capital adequacy rat io (CAR), in this study,
shows insignificant to explain bank profit abilit y which measured by ROE.
This shows the effect of the bank capital o n profit abilit y is different
depending o n whether the study considered the profit abilit y o f assets or of
equit y. In the first case, when ROA is co nsidered as the dependent variable,
the effect is posit ive and highly significant, as expected. On t he other hand,
the negat ive effect of banks' capital on the ROE is explained when it is taken
48
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
as a product of the ROA and equit y mult iplier (the inverse of the rat io of
equit y-to-total assets). i.e., ROE = ROA x 1/(Eq/TA). In consequence, the
decreases o f the ROE result ing fro m increases in t his rat io cannot be
interpreted as decreases in the wealt h created using the capital invested;
rather, they can be seen as a consequence of the decreased level o f
indebtedness or leverage o f the banks.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
withdraw. The lower rat io of this reveals that the bank will face difficult y in
meet ing payments in the right time. A lo wer ratio of this would also mean
that the bank will not effort lessly get funds or else at an extremely high rate
of interest which will mount the cost of funding and eventually invade
profitabilit y o f the bank. On the other hand, if the bank is excessively liquid,
it means that the bank is in ‘liquidit y trap’ and is keeping its productive
assets idle. This ult imately put the bank’s profitabilit y at risk because an
extremely higher rat io of this would mean that the bank has kept excess
liquid assets inact ive and hence lo sing interest inco me.
The study also agrees wit h Hypothesis number 5 that there is a posit ive
significance relat io nship between inco me diversificat ion and profit abilit y o f
banks. The rat io of non-int erest inco me to total inco me, which measures the
level o f diversificat ion o f a bank’s act ivit ies, is found to have statist ically
significant at 1% and posit ive impact on bank pro fitabilit y part icularly when
it is measured by ROA and ROE. A posit ive and significant associat ion
between this variable and pro fitabilit y reveals that commercial banks in
Ethiopia earned a co nsiderable proportion o f their inco me fro m sources other
than interest over the study period. The result of the study suggests that
commercial banks in Ethiopia need to diversify t heir line o f business
act ivit ies to meet their object ives o f profit maximizat ion.
Concerning loan to deposit rat io the study result failed to match wit h
Hypothesis number 6 that deals wit h the significance o f loan to deposit ratio
on the pro fitabilit y o f the banks, the study finding indicates that there is no
statist ically correlat io n between loan to deposit ratio and profitabilit y o f the
bank.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Wit h regard to the set o f exogenous variables, the result suggests a posit ive
relat io nship between bank concentrat ion and profitabilit y in Ethiopia banking
industry (both ROA and ROE are significant at 5%) in line wit h Hypothesis
number 7 (there is a posit ive significant relat ionship between concentratio n
and performance o f Ethiopian co mmercial banks). The posit ive significant
correlat ion of this variable could indicate a high degree o f concentrat ion.
Banks in highly concentrated markets tend to earn monopo ly pro fits. Thus,
the posit ive sign o f concentration may characterize the nature of Ethiopian
banking sector may need for more co mpetit io n and more entry into the
banking market.
Wit h regard to the size bank system (SBS) which reflect the importance o f
bank financing in the econo my and it is measured by t he rat io of total assets
of banks to GDP. The result reveals that the increase o f size bank system has
negat ive and significant correlat ion wit h profitabilit y as measured in ROA
model that agree in significance to Hypothesis number 7 (There is a posit ive
significant relat ionship between bank size system and performa nce o f
Ethiopian co mmercial banks), but the result disagreed wit h its negat ive sign.
Therefore, whenever the contribut ion o f Ethiopian co mmercial banks total
asset to GDP is higher, the bank’s pro fitabilit y beco me lesser as it’s negat ive.
The result is supported by different studies (Demirguc-Kunt and Huizinga,
1999).
As far as t he macroecono mic factors are concerned, the study result shows
that there is no a direct relat io nship between GDP growth and bank
profitabilit y for the variable is found to be statist ically insignificant which
contradict Hypothesis number 10 which assumes there is a posit ive
relat io nship between growth of GDP and profitabilit y. However, the posit ive
sign of the variable supports the argument that econo mic growth posit ively
affects bank profit abilit y mainly t hrough the effect that the econo mic cycle
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
exerts on demand for credit by firms. Inflat ion is also found to be statist ically
insignificant except for the model o f NIM. The result is, therefore, contrar y
to the expectatio n (Hypothesis number 9) but it is posit ively related to bank
profitabilit y.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
CHAPTER FIVE
5.1 Conclusion
This sect io n provides the conclusio n t hat inferred fro m t he result o f empirical
explorat ion of determinants on Ethiopian commercial banks’ pro fitabilit y. It
contributes much for int erest ing part ies such as government; regulators,
bankers, academician, and stakeho lders through enhance their understanding
on the factors that posit ively or negat ively affect the performance o f
commercial banks.
The study was conducted to invest igate bank specific, industry specific and
macroecono mic explanatory factors of profitabilit y o f co mmercial banks
operating in Ethiopia wit h unbalanced data over the study period (2003-
2012). The study used three indicators of profitabilit y as dependent variables:
ROA, ROE and NIM, and ten explanatory variables: Size, CAR, CIR, LIQ,
DIV and LDR fro m bank specific, HHI and SBS fro m industry specific and
GDP and INF fro m macroecono mic factors. After test ing through Hausman
test, the expected factors were regressed against ROA using fixed effect and
ROE and NIM using rando m effects.
The posit ive and significant relat ion between bank size and profit abilit y, as
depicted on all measures (ROA, ROE and NIM) indicators that larger banks
tend to be earn higher pro fit than smaller banks, and vice versa. Therefore, in
Ethiopian co mmercial banks context, larger banks could be benefit ed fro m
econo mies of scale.
The associat ion between capital adequacy and profitabilit y imply that banks
with more capit al engage in higher loan risk lending for higher pro fit. On the
contrary banks that are relat ively poorly capitalized were so conservat ive in
53
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
extending loans and thus their profit abilit y would be adversely affected. The
result o f having more capital to asset rat io (and, therefore, better solvency)
point out that those well-cap italized banks face lower risks of go ing
bankrupt, building their credit worthiness, and reducing their cost of funding
which will ult imately enhance their pro fit margin.
The negat ive relat ionship o f cost inco me ratio and profit abilit y, and its
significance o n earning on asset shows that more operat ionally efficient
commercial banks reported higher pro fits than those co mmercial banks that
have poor expense management over the study period. Therefore, one o f the
factors that negat ively affect the banks’ pro fitabilit y is the failure o f
management to contro l cost.
The negat ive and significant correlat ion between liquidit y and bank
profitabilit y disclo se that the more liquid a bank is t he less pro fitable it will
be. Here one has to interpret the result with caut ion. The lower ratio o f
liquidit y reveals that the bank will face difficult y in meet ing payments in the
right time and it may force to borrow with extremely high rate o f interest and
eventually invade pro fitabilit y o f the bank. On the contrary, if the bank is
excessively liquid (liquidit y trap), it means that the bank is keeping it s
productive assets idle and hence losing interest inco me.
A posit ive and significant relat ionship of inco me diversificat ion and
profitabilit y shows that commercial banks in Ethiopia earned a considerable
proportion o f their inco me fro m sources other than interest over the study
period. The result o f the study suggests that co mmercial banks in Ethiopia
need to diversify their line o f business activit ies to meet their object ives o f
profit maximizat ion.
The posit ive significant correlat ion o f HHI could indicate a high degree o f
concentratio n in Ethiopian banking industry. Banks in highly concentrated
markets tend to earn monopoly pro fit s. Thus, the posit ive sign o f
concentratio n may characterize the nature of Et hiopian banking sector may
need for more co mpet it io n and more entry into the banking market. The
54
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
negat ive and significant associat io n between size bank system and
profitabilit y exhibits whenever the contribut io n of Ethiopian co mmercia l
banks total asset to GDP is higher, the bank’s pro fitabilit y beco me lesser.
Even if t here is no correlat ion between GDP and profit abilit y, the posit ive
sign of the variable supports the argument that econo mic growth posit ively
affects bank profit abilit y mainly t hrough the effect that the econo mic cycle
exerts on demand for credit by firms. Inflat ion is also found to be statist ically
insignificant except for the model of NIM.
Generally, the study found that almo st all internal factors are the most
determinant factors of the pro fitabilit y o f Ethiopian co mmercial banks. Bank
size (Size) which is measured by natural lo g of total asset, Capital adequacy
(CAR) that is calculated as a rat io of bank equit y to average asset. Inco me
diversificat io n (DIV) - non-interest inco mes to total inco me which measures
inco me that generated fro m o ff-balance sheet are among the internal factors
that have posit ive and significant impact on the profit abilit y o f Ethiopian
commercial banks. On the other hand, cost inco me rat io (CIR) - management
efficiency- which is measured by non interest cost divided by t otal o f interest
inco me and no n-interest inco me and liquidit y risk (liquid asset over total
average asset) are among the internal factors that are significant and
negat ively affect the profitabilit y o f the banks.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
5.2 Recommendation
Based on the research findings, the fo llowing possible reco mmendat ions are
forwarded to all the co ncerned bodies.
Overall the empirical results o f this study provide evidence that, there is a
large difference in pro fitabilit y amo ng Ethiopian co mmercial banks. Their
profitabilit y is mainly do minated by bank-specific factors which are on the
hands o f the management o f the banks. So, the study suggests to the banks’
managers and po licy makers to give high concern on the internal factors of
profitabilit y and set direct io n to manage the most determinant factors of
performance.
The Ethiopian banking capit al structure provides pro mising pro fit for well
capitalized banks; therefore, stake ho lders are advised to build large capit al
to asset ratio through, for instance, selling their share for better solvency and
reducing fund costs, and ult imately to succeed their object ives o f maximizing
profits.
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Inco me diversificat ion is the one o f income generat ing area that posit ively
and significant ly affects the bank’s profitabilit y. Therefore, the paper
proposes to the management bodies to expand their non int erest earnings, for
instance charge on ATM service and diversifying invest ments.
Finally, this study is fully designed to test empirically the impact of bank
specific which is mainly based on the balance sheet and financial statement
of banks, industry specific and macroecono mic determinants on banks
profitabilit y. Therefore, the researcher would like to recommend future
researchers to include the impact o f non- financial determining factors of
banks pro fitabilit y such as management qualit y and efficiency.
57
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
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Annex
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Appendix A
Bank Specific:
Industr y Specific
Macroeconomic
Factors
65
Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Appendix B
Correlation Matrix
roa roe nim size car cir liq div ldr hhi sbs inf gdp
roa 1.0000
ldr -0.0595 -0.1369 0.1417 -0.4252 0.0330 -0.0585 -0.5427 -0.1464 1.0000
hhi -0.1337 0.0044 -0.1112 -0.1857 -0.0891 0.0465 -0.2306 -0.2721 0.3535 1.0000
sbs 0.2733 0.0875 0.0239 0.2152 0.0374 -0.1516 -0.0430 0.4393 -0.4417 -0.4521 1.0000
inf 0.0530 -0.0431 0.1884 0.1484 0.0108 -0.0642 -0.1093 0.0628 -0.1678 -0.3434 0.5279 1.0000
gdp 0.1301 0.1048 0.0744 0.0717 0.0712 0.0124 0.1503 0.1166 -0.1338 -0.4327 0.0400 -0.2240 1.0000
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Determinants Of Commercial Banks’ Performance In Ethiopia 2013
Appendix C
Normality Test