Ece Eda Lakerta 04.09.

2022

‘Long-term causes were more important than short-term causes in explaining the outbreak of one
20th century war.’ To what extent do you agree with this statement?
One of the most destructive total wars in human history began in Europe in August 1914 due to
various causes. This essay will discuss to what extent the long-term causes were more important than
the short-term causes in the outbreak of World War I. Although war broke out in 1914 following the
July Crisis, European tensions had increased in the preceding years. Would war still have happened if
it was not for the short-term causes that pushed the countries over the edge, or would the short-term
causes be entirely irrelevant if not for the extensive build-up of tensions and rivalries created by the
long-term causes?

One of the leading causes of the increasing tensions for the years prior to 1914 was the naval and arms
race between the great European powers. Between 1870 and 1914, military spending by the European
powers increased drastically as colonialism became popular. In addition, there was a massive increase
in armaments. In 1906, Britain launched the Dreadnought, which made all other battleships obsolete
as its speed, range, and firepower were far superior. This situation triggered a 'naval scare' as fears
grew concerning Germany's rapidly expanding fleet under Kaiser Wilhelm. The British government
responded by ordering the construction of eight battleships in 1909. The naval race also caused a
change in attitude within the British population towards Germany, as the press now portrayed
Germany as the enemy. Britain's willingness to go to war in 1914 owed a lot to the tensions generated
by the naval race.

Then there was the alliance system that divided Europe into two power blocs; the Triple Alliance
(1882), consisting of Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy, and the Triple Entente (1907), consisting
of Britain, France and Russia. A dispute between one of the members of each alliance would drag the
others into conflict, potentially turning into a major war involving the six great European powers. In
addition, many alliances contained secret clauses, growing international tension and suspicion. The
Alliance system also meant that Germany felt encircled by the Triple Entente and became convinced
that the Entente posed a real threat to her security. Germany thus felt it necessary to increase her
armaments and to draw up war plans, such as the Schlieffen Plan, and draw closer to Austria-
Hungary, a shift that was to have an impact on the Bosnian Crisis (1908). Both the Schlieffen Plan
and the Bosnian Crisis would turn into crucial short-term causes in the long run.

In 1905-1913, consecutive crises and wars took Europe by storm. The Morrocan Crises of 1904 and
1911 strengthened the Entente between Britain and France and increased hostility between Germany
and Britain. The Bosnian Crisis (1908) ended the era of cooperation between Russia and Austria-
Hungary in the Balkans as the situation in the Balkans became much more unstable. Serbia was
enraged by the affair, which increased nationalist feelings among the people and led to revanchism.
Furthermore, the First and Second Balkan Wars further roused the nationalist feel in Serbia as the
nation doubled in size and proved its military strength. Serbia had diplomatic success, which urged
Russia to stand by its ally. The outcome of the two wars was a diplomatic defeat to Germany, causing
her to draw closer to Austria-Hungary, who was now thoroughly convinced it needed to crush Serbia.

The crises of 1905-1913 saw a substantial deterioration in international relations. There was an
emerging division between the two alliances and an increase in the armaments race, alongside the
naval race between Germany and Britain. The nationalist longing was rising in European countries.
Each crisis had passed without a major European war, but every subsequent crisis aggravated the
tensions and made a future conflict more probable.
Ece Eda Lakerta 04.09.2022

The first few months of 1914 were a relatively calm period between the European states. The event
that broke the calm was the assassination of the archduke of Austria-Hungary and his wife on 25th
June 1914 by a Black Hand member, Gavrilo Princip. The archduke was symbolic of the Austro-
Hungarian regime, and it was unclear to what degree the Serbian government was involved with the
group - the head of the Black Hand was a colon in the Serbian general staff, Colonel Dimitrijevic. It is
valuable to know that the archduke had not been popular, and his wife was looked down upon as a
mere countess. In death, however, they provided a perfect justification for Austria-Hungary to attempt
to go to war with Serbia. Following the assassination, the Kaiser promised German support to Austria
for whatever action they took, better known as the ‘blank cheque’.

The Austrian government saw its chance to crush Serbia but initially hesitated. An attack on Serbia
would bring Russians, so the Austrians needed assurances from Germany that they would be
supported. On 5 July 1914, the Kaiser issued Austria a ‘blank cheque', the German guarantee of
unconditional support. The "blank cheque" was vital in strengthening Austria-Hungary’s decision to
declare war on Serbia. It foreshadowed the chain of events leading up to the outbreak of war, such as
the Austria-Hungarian ultimatum and declaration of war. Without Germany's backing, Austria would
not have had the confidence to take these actions, and the situation would have remained localised and
irrelevant to the rest of the continent.

Arguably the final drop that overfilled the glass for Britain was Germany’s execution of the Schlieffen
Plan. The plan involved Germany invading France through Belgium, thus bypassing the French
defences along the German-French border. However, there were miscalculations regarding the impact
of marching through Belgium, the amount of time Russia would take to mobilise, and Britain's
effectiveness in coming to the aid of France. The Schlieffen plan violated the Treaty of London
(1839) , in which Britain promised to defend Belgium. British public opinion had been divided over
whether Britain should get involved. The German invasion united everyone in the view that Britain
should help Belgium.

Many factors contributed to the sudden yet awaited outbreak of the total world war in 1914. Tensions
had been building between the six great European powers since 1871 and continuously escalated, yet,
miraculously, never caused war until 1914, when these tensions could no longer be overlooked or
compressed. The naval race between Germany and Britain after the launch of the Dreadnought (1906)
damaged relations, and they got permanently stained after the crises of 1905-1913. Germany’s
violation of the Treaty of London would not have been a substantial problem like it was made out to
be by the British government if relations between the two countries had not been so unfavourable. The
Alliance system reduced the flexibility of the great powers’ response to crises, as they were bound to
support their allies unconditionally. Even the most minor crisis that could easily have been peacefully
handled priorly became a potential cause for a major war. Although the Austrian imperial family did
not care much for either Franz Ferdinand or his wife, their assassination provided an excuse to go to
war with Serbia, who had been irritating Austria for many years. Historian Sydney Bradshaw Fay
argues that a complex assortment of long-term causes, namely imperialism, militarism and alliances,
pushed Europe into war rather than events that occurred right before the war broke out. One could
conclude that the short-term causes would have been entirely irrelevant if not for the extensive build-
up of tensions, rivalries and revanchism created by the long-term causes.