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Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-007-9305-9

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Climatic Change
DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9305-9

Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India

S. K. Dash & R. K. Jenamani & S. R. Kalsi & S. K. Panda

Received: 2 February 2005 / Accepted: 25 April 2007

# Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2007

Abstract The study of climate changes in India and search for robust evidences are issues
of concern specially when it is known that poor people are very vulnerable to climate
changes. Due to the vast size of India and its complex geography, climate in this part of the
globe has large spatial and temporal variations. Important weather events affecting India are
floods and droughts, monsoon depressions and cyclones, heat waves, cold waves,
prolonged fog and snowfall. Results of this comprehensive study based on observed data
and model reanalyzed fields indicate that in the last century, the atmospheric surface
temperature in India has enhanced by about 1 and 1.1°C during winter and post-monsoon
months respectively. Also decrease in the minimum temperature during summer monsoon
and its increase during post-monsoon months have created a large difference of about 0.8°C
in the seasonal temperature anomalies which may bring about seasonal asymmetry and
hence changes in atmospheric circulation. Opposite phases of increase and decrease in the
minimum temperatures in the southern and northern regions of India respectively have been
noticed in the interannual variability. In north India, the minimum temperature shows sharp
decrease of its magnitude between 1955 and 1972 and then sharp increase till date. But in
south India, the minimum temperature has a steady increase. The sea surface temperatures
(SST) of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal also show increasing trend. Observations indicate
occurrence of more extreme temperature events in the east coast of India in the recent past.
During summer monsoon months, there is a decreasing (increasing) trend in the frequency
of depressions (low pressure areas). In the last century the frequency of occurrence of
cyclonic storms shows increasing trend in the month of November. In addition there is
increase in the number of severe cyclonic storms crossing Indian Coast. Analysis of rainfall

S. K. Dash (*) : S. K. Panda

Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas,
New Delhi 110 016, India
e-mail: skdash@cas.iitd.ernet.in

R. K. Jenamani : S. R. Kalsi
India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi 110 003, India
 Climatic Change

amount during different seasons indicate decreasing tendency in the summer monsoon
rainfall over Indian landmass and increasing trend in the rainfall during pre-monsoon and
post-monsoon months.

1 Introduction

As per Köppen’s classification (Oliver and Wilson 1987) India mainly experiences four
types of climate. The climate of the whole of peninsula is Tropical Savana and that of the West
Coast is basically Tropical Rain Forest. On the other hand, the climate of the northern part of
India is Warm with Dry winds and that of western India is Dry Steppe. During the 4 months
from June to September, the southwest summer monsoon is predominant and during October
to December, the northeast winter monsoon controls the weather of the country in general.
Due to the large extensions of India both along north-south and west-east, different parts of
the country experience different ranges of temperature and rainfall even during the same
month or season. The mountains in the country add to the wide variation in the climate of
places located in the same latitudinal and longitudinal belts. The ecosystems in the coastal
belts, the rich biodiversity in the mountainous regions, and the tropical rain forests form the
life line of the climate of India. Farmers mostly depend on the performance of monsoon rain
and the others living in rural tribal areas look for the forests and ecosystems for their daily
needs. Thus the study of climate change in India and search for robust evidences are
important issues of concern especially when it is acknowledged that poor people are very
vulnerable to climate changes.
The most important weather events affecting India are heat waves, cold waves and fog,
snowfall, floods and droughts, monsoon depressions and cyclones. Peoples’ perception is in
favour of changes in the frequency of occurrence of these weather phenomena. It is very
essential to examine the observed data very carefully in order to categorize those as
scientific evidences. In the recent past, studies have been conducted by several
meteorologists (Srivastava et al. 1992; De 2001; Rupa Kumar et al. 2002; Dash and Rao
2003; Prakasa Rao et al. 2004; Kothawale and Rupa Kumar 2005) using the observed data
as well as model results. Earlier, Paramanik and Jagannathan (1954) had analysed surface
temperature data series over India. Based on these earlier studies, it may be inferred that the
rise in annual mean temperature over India is comparable with the reported rise of global
surface temperature by 0.6°C (Jones et al. 1999). Prakasa Rao et al. (2004) examined the
effect of urbanization on the meteorological parameters at fifteen Indian cities and found
that radiation values, bright sunshine hours, wind speeds and total cloud amounts have a
decreasing tendency during the last 40–50 years whereas relative humidity and rainfall
amounts show increasing tendency in some cities. It may be noted that increasing amounts
of aerosols in the atmosphere can cut the amount of sun-light reaching the ground and
hence lead to decrease in bright sunshine hours. Past results, in general, indicate warming
during the post-monsoon (October–December) and winter (January–February) and no
change in the temperatures during the monsoon season (June–September). Maximum
temperatures show positive trends over most parts of the country whereas minimum
temperatures show very little trend. It may be noted that there are some differences in the
inferences obtained by different researchers because of variations in the length of data
record and also regions of study. Considering the socio-economic importance of climate
changes in India, which has diversities of climate and topography, it is essential to
reexamine different aspects of climate change based on past recorded measurements and
data obtained from integration of numerical models. In this study emphasis has been given
Climatic Change

on the notable spatial (across different regions) as well as temporal (across different
seasons) changes in the last century and their possible influence on the atmospheric
circulation patterns. Evidences of different phases of changes in climatic parameters at
different regions and in different seasons may eventually be utilized to design numerical
experiments to understand the underlying physical mechanism in the long run.
It is well known that Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) are suitable
tools which can be used to forecast the future states of the atmosphere, specially in the
context of global warming. Before the AGCMs are actually used for generating future
climate scenarios, those need to be verified based on the changes occurring in the spatial as
well as temporal variations of some important weather parameters such as temperature and
rainfall. Lal and Aggarwal (2000), Lal (2003) had analysed the skills of seven state-of-the-
art coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models in simulating the key characteristics
of the Asian Summer Monsoon. Outputs from such models have inferred strong possibility
of more intense monsoon rainfall events over the central Indian plains in future. In this
study, we intend to examine the changes in the characteristics of temperature and rainfall
over different regions of India during winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon
months using both recorded data series and model output. Also indications of heat waves,
increase in summer and winter rainfall, trends in the occurrence of Low Pressure Areas
(LOPARS), depressions and cyclones are some of the issues which are examined in this
paper based on existing data.
Observed monthly maximum and minimum temperatures for the period 1901–2003 and
rainfall for the period 1871–2002 used in this study are obtained from http://www.tropmet.
res.in whereas monthly mean temperature values are obtained from http://www.ncdc.noaa.
gov/oa/climate/online/doe/doe.html. In addition Reynold’s Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
values from National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC) for the period 1901–2003 are used.
Further, data related to cyclonic disturbances and heat wave conditions are obtained from
India Meteorological Department (IMD) archive.
Rise in temperature is the most important factor in support of the global warming.
Section 2 in this paper deals with the indications of warming in different regions of India in
different seasons. Summer monsoon rainfall is the lifeline for the Indian farmers. Section 3
discusses the indications of changes in the seasonal rainfall in India during the last century.
Synoptic systems such as LOPARS, monsoon depressions and cyclonic storms determine
the weather of several places in India, especially the coastal and peninsular India to a large
extent. Section 4 elaborates on the changes in the frequency of occurrences of these
cyclonic disturbances. Apart from the extreme weather events occurring in the atmosphere,
there are also drastic changes observed in our environment, which include the forests,
biodiversity, ecosystems, water bodies, land etc. All these components of the environment
are region specific with characteristics widely different from place to place. Changes
observed in all such environmental factors may or may not contribute significantly to the
changes in the important weather parameters such as temperature and rainfall. Similarly,
changes in all these environmental elements might not have occurred due to global
warming. Nevertheless, as per IPCC (2001) large scale deforestation and changes in land-
use patterns and their direct and indirect impacts on climate have been the focus of several
field campaigns and modeling studies. Relationships between human activities and
environmental changes can be obtained after careful examination which in turn will benefit
all concerned with the prediction and mitigation of climate changes. This paper does not go
into the details of these environmental issues visa-vis climate changes. However, for the
sake of completeness, Section 5 summarizes the changes in the environment observed in
India during the past several years.
 Climatic Change

2 Indications of warming

Figure 1a–c show the annual temperature anomalies in the mean, maximum, and minimum
temperatures averaged over India during the last century. The anomalies in each category of
temperature (such as mean, maximum and minimum) have been calculated first by taking
the average of 388 available station observations (http://www.tropmet.res.in) over India

1.5 1.5
a
Temperature Anomaly (oC)

1.0 1.0

0.5 0.5

0.0 0.0

-0.5 -0.5

-1.0 -1.0

-1.5 -1.5
1902

1910

1918

1926

1934

1942

1950

1958

1966

1974

1982

1990

1998
Year
MaximumTemperature Anomaly (oC)

1.5 1.5
b
1.0 1.0

0.5 0.5

0.0 0.0

-0.5 -0.5

-1.0 -1.0

-1.5 -1.5
1901

1907

1913

1919

1925

1931

1937

1943

1949

1955

1961

1967

1973

1979

1985

1991

1997

2003

Year
Minimum Temperature Anomaly (oC)

1.5 1.5
c
1.0 1.0

0.5 0.5

0.0 0.0

-0.5 -0.5

-1.0 -1.0

-1.5 -1.5
1901

1907

1913

1919

1925

1931

1937

1943

1949

1955

1961

1967

1973

1979

1985

1991

1997

2003

Year

Fig. 1 Time series of annual temperature anomalies (°C) over India a average b maximum c minimum
Climatic Change

spreading over all the 102 years of study and then deducting the 102 years mean values
from the mean value of each year. The trend lines indicate that the annual mean temperature
over India has increased by about 0.7°C (Fig. 1a) and the maximum temperature has
increased by about 0.8°C (Fig. 1b). On the other hand the annual minimum temperature
over India does not show any appreciable (Fig. 1c) enhancement.
In order to examine the temperature trend over India during different seasons, in this
study, the entire year has been divided into four seasons namely, winter (January and
February), pre-monsoon (March to May), monsoon (June to September) and post-monsoon
(October to December). The time series of mean, maximum and minimum temperatures
over India during these four seasons in the last century are shown in Fig. 2a–f. Figure 2a
shows that in the last century, the winter-time increase in the mean temperature over India is
about 1.0°C whereas during pre-monsoon months there has been a rise of about 0.3°C.
During monsoon an increase of mean temperature by about 0.4°C has been observed,
whereas during post-monsoon months, the temperature enhancement is maximum at 1.1°C.
It may be noted that the temperature rise is highest in post-monsoon months followed by
winter. Also, during winter and post-monsoon months the temperature enhancement is more
than double of that in pre-monsoon and monsoon months. Such large difference in the
temperature rise between the two halves of the year may lead to changes in spatial position
of heating sources over the Indian region and adjoining area and hence in the atmospheric
circulation patterns. Figure 2c shows an increase of 1.0 and 0.6°C in the maximum
temperature during winter and pre-monsoon months respectively. Similar increase during
monsoon and post-monsoon are about 0.4 and 1.1°C respectively. On the other hand, the
minimum temperatures during winter and pre-monsoon months have negligible changes
(Fig. 2e) in the last century. Figure 2f shows decrease in the minimum temperature during
summer monsoon months by about 0.2°C and increase of about 0.6°C during post-monsoon
months of October to December.
The impact of climate change may differ from one region to the other, specially for a
geographically complex country like India. Hence, India has been divided into seven zones
as shown in Fig. 3 in order to examine the changes in maximum and minimum
temperatures over these regions. The seven zones are north-west, western Himalaya, north
central, north-east, interior peninsula, east coast and west coast. Figure 4a and b indicate
that the maximum temperature has been increasing during the last century over all the
regions of India. However, the increase in magnitude is not the same everywhere. West
coast shows maximum increase in the maximum temperature by about 1.2°C. Next to the
west coast, maximum temperature has increased by 1°C in the north-east, 0.9°C in the
western Himalaya, 0.8°C in the north central, 0.6°C in the north-west, 0.6°C in the east
coast and by the least amount of 0.5°C in the interior peninsula. Similarly, Fig. 4c and d
show the changes in the minimum temperature over the seven regions of India in the last
century. Unlike the maximum temperature, the minimum temperature in the four northern
regions of India show some peculiar changes. Figure 4c shows that there is sharp decrease
in the minimum temperature by 1.9°C in the western Himalaya, 1.4°C in the north-east,
1.1°C in the north central and 0.7°C in the north-west India during 1955–1972 and then
equally sharp rise over the past three to four decades. The minimum temperatures in
southern regions such as interior peninsula, east coast and west coast show almost equal
enhancement (Fig. 4d) during the last century. Trend lines indicate that interior peninsula
shows maximum increase in the minimum temperature by about 0.5°C. Next to the interior
peninsula, minimum temperature increased by 0.4°C in the east coast and by the least
amount of 0.2°C in the west coast of India. Comparison of Fig. 4c and d indicates that the
change in minimum temperatures in the northern and southern regions of India are almost
 Climatic Change

3.0 3.0
Winter
2.5 a Pre-Monsoon
2.5

2.0 2.0

1.5 1.5
Temperature Anomaly (oC)

1.0 1.0

0.5 0.5

0.0 0.0

-0.5 -0.5

-1.0 -1.0

-1.5 -1.5

-2.0 -2.0

-2.5 -2.5

-3.0 -3.0
1902

1910

1918

1926

1934

1942

1950

1958

1966

1974

1982

1990

1998
Year
3.0 3.0
Monsoon
2.5 2.5
b Post-Monsoon
2.0 2.0

1.5 1.5
Temperature Anomaly (oC )

1.0 1.0

0.5 0.5

0.0 0.0

-0.5 -0.5

-1.0 -1.0

-1.5 -1.5

-2.0 -2.0

-2.5 -2.5

-3.0 -3.0
1902

1910

1918

1926

1934

1942

1950

1958

1966

1974

1982

1990

1998

Year

Fig. 2 a and b: Time series of anomalies in the mean temperatures during a winter and pre-monsoon and b
monsoon and post-monsoon months. c and d same as a and b except for maximum temperature. e and f same
as a and b except for minimum temperature

in opposite phases although the magnitudes of fluctuation in the northern India are large
during last four to five decades.
Since the east and west coasts of India showed rise in temperature during the last
century, it is logical to examine the SST of the Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal
(BoB). Reynold’s SST anomalies over the northern (16–24°N and 63.8–73.1°E) and
Climatic Change

Fig. 2 (continued)

southern (7–16°N and 63.8–75°E) AS and northern (14–21°N and 84.4–91.9°E) and
southern (7–14°N and 78.8–90°E) BoB have been depicted in Fig. 5a and b respectively.
Figure 5a shows that during the last 100 years, northern and southern sectors of the AS
have experienced rise in SST by 0.9 and 1.0°C respectively. Similarly, Fig. 5b depicts rise
of SST over northern and southern sectors of BoB by 0.8 and 1.0°C respectively. The rise in
SSTs of AS and BoB is in line with the global SST enhancement as studied in detail by
Webster et al. (2005). The rise in temperatures of the southern India and those of AS and
BoB are of the same order of magnitude. However, the large fluctuations in the minimum
temperatures of the regions in the north India need further study in the context of the role of
the land-use pattern changes occurring in the Himalayan range and the heat exchanges in
the numerous slopes of the Himalayas.
 Climatic Change

Fig. 2 (continued)

From the global warming point of view, only the temperature trends may not indicate the
severity of climate change. People are usually concerned with the excesses in heating and
cooling. It is also essential to examine such extreme heating/cooling events. In 1998, during
the period 18 May to 6 June heat wave to severe heat wave conditions prevailed over
Orissa. After 5 years, in 2003, similar heat wave conditions were observed during 16 May
to 11 June in neighboring Andhra Pradesh. Based on the maximum temperature observed
by IMD at different observatories all over the country, it is found that during the heat wave
conditions in 2003, the highest maximum temperature in the country was confined to seven
stations in the Andhra Pradesh and Orissa (Fig. 6). During this heat wave period of 23 days,
the highest maximum temperature varied between 45 and 50°C. As shown in Fig. 7, the
maximum temperature at stations Ongole, Hanamkonda, Machillipatnam and Gannavaram
were 47, 48, 48.2 and 49°C respectively against their respective climatological highest
Climatic Change

Fig. 3 Map for seven homogeneous regions of India (source IITM) used for examining temperature trends

values 46.7, 46.7, 47.8 and 48°C in the last 100 years. In May–June 2003, about 2,033
people lost their lives in Andhra Pradesh due to such extreme temperature conditions there.
Figure 8 shows another instance of extreme temperature occurrences at some stations in
Orissa in 1998, where about 1,024 people lost their lives. While citing such extreme events,
it is important to note that in the time scale of climate, such events may reflect the annual
fluctuations only. However, unusually large magnitudes of fluctuation and their persistence
for a long time can not be ignored altogether. Even if such events are considered as isolate,
one should be alarmed so as to adapt appropriate strategies and mitigation policies, if any,
for the minimization of loss of natural resources and life.

3 Seasonal rainfall

Figure 9a–c depict the time series of Indian rainfall during the four seasons mentioned in
Section 2. Figure 9a shows that during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon months there is
 Climatic Change

Fig. 4 a and b: Time series of anomalies in the maximum temperatures over a western Himalaya, north-west
India, north-central India and north-east India, b Interior peninsula, east coast India and west coast India. c
and d: Time series of anomalies in the minimum temperatures over c western Himalaya, north-west India,
north-central India and north-east India, d Interior peninsula, east coast India and west coast India

increasing tendency in rainfall although the magnitudes (0.4 and 1 cm respectively) are
small. Figure 9b indicates that the rainfall in winter months has remained more or less
constant in the last century. Figure 9c shows that Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR)
has decreased by about 1.6 cm during 1871–2002 in addition to the fact that there is about
30-year time scale in fluctuation. The decrease in ISMR is about 2% of its long term
average value of 86 cm whereas the increase in rainfall in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon
months are 4.3 and 8.3% of their long term average values of 9.2 and 12 cm respectively.
These percentages hint at changes in seasonal rainfall amounts.
ISMR data (http://www.tropmet.res.in) for 29 meteorological subdivisions (out of a total
of 35 in India) are available to us for analysis. In order to save space, the trends in ISMR in
all the meteorological sub-divisions are not shown in this paper. Figure 10 shows selected
Climatic Change

Fig. 4 (continued)

three subdivisions with maximum decreasing trends (Fig. 10a–c) and three subdivisions
with maximum increasing trends (Fig. 10d–f) in terms of magnitudes. Figure 10a–c show
that in the last century, there has been maximum decrease in summer monsoon rainfall to
the extent of 16 cm in South Assam followed by 15 cm in East Madhya Pradesh and 6 cm
in Orissa. On the other hand Fig. 10d–f indicate that maximum increase in summer
monsoon rainfall is equal to 30 cm in coastal Karnataka followed by 25 cm in Konkan and
Goa and 12 cm in Punjab. Ten meteorological sub-divisions namely South Assam, East
Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Vidarbha, Kerala, Gujarat, West Uttar Pradesh, Saurashtra, Bihar
Plain and Marathwada show decreasing trend, while increasing trend is observed in twelve
sub-divisions such as Coastal Karnataka, Kankan & Goa, Punjab, Telengana, Gangetic
West Bengal, Haryana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, North Interior Karnataka,
 Climatic Change

Fig. 5 Time series of Sea Surface Temperature (°C) over a Arabian Sea and b Bay of Bengal

West Rajasthan, South Interior Karnataka and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal. Seven sub-
divisions such as Tamil Nadu, Madhya Maharashtra, West Madhya Pradesh, East
Rajasthan, Bihar Plateau, East Uttar Pradesh and North Assam do not show any trend in
ISMR. Rainfall data of six meteorological sub-divisions such as Jammu and Kashmir,
Uttaranchal, Lakshadweep, Himachal Pradesh, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and
Arunachal Pradesh are not analysed here.
As per the practice in IMD, heavy rainfall events are those when there is greater than or
equal to 7 cm of rainfall in 24 h. Frequency of such events during summer monsoon shows
increasing trend over certain parts of the country namely Andaman and Nicobar Islands,
Lakshdweep, west coast and some pockets in central and north-west India, while most of
Climatic Change

Fig. 6 Highest maximum temperature recorded at some stations of Andhra Pradesh and Orissa during heat
wave (May 19–June 10, 2003). Stations considered are Ongole – (ONG), Kakinada – (KND),
Machillipatanam (MPT), Gannavaram – (GNV), Nellore – (NLR), Titlagarh – (TTG), Hanamkonda – (HNK)

other areas have decreasing trend. However, decreasing trends in heavy rainfall incidents in
winter, pre-monsoon and post-monsoon season are noticed over most parts of the country.
Decreasing trend of drought has also been noted in affected areas such as northwest India,
parts of central peninsula and southern parts of Indian peninsula. Figure 11 shows the
percentage of the total area of India affected by drought from 1877 to 2002 where the solid

Fig. 7 Highest maximum temperature recorded at some stations during heat wave of Andhra Pradesh in May
and June 2003 and the earlier recorded highest maximum temperature
 Climatic Change

Fig. 8 Highest maximum temperature recorded at some stations during heat wave of Orissa in May and June
1998 and the earlier recorded highest maximum temperature

line indicates a decreasing trend in the area affected by drought. It may be mentioned that as
practiced in IMD, when the rainfall is 26–50% below normal it is called moderate
meteorological drought. Similarly, when the rainfall is less than or equal to 50% below
normal it is termed as severe meteorological drought. In Fig. 11 the total percentage of
geographical area of the country affected by both moderate and severe drought conditions
are considered (Mooley and Pant 1981).

4 Monsoon depressions and cyclones

Monsoon depressions are important synoptic scale disturbances, which are formed on the
mean flow of the Indian summer monsoon by drawing energy from the latter. As per the
definition of IMD, in case of depressions, the pressure gradient between the centre and a
distance of 250 km from it ranges between 5 and 13 hPa and the surface winds in cyclonic
circulations are between 8.5 and 16.5 m/s. Weaker systems with only one closed isobar and
with surface wind speeds less than 8.5 m/s are called LOPARS. Cyclonic storms are more
intense than depressions with surface wind speeds stronger than 16.5 m/s. Amongst all the
monsoonal weather systems, monsoon depressions are recognized as the main rainfall
producing synoptic systems over India. Intra-seasonal and inter-annual variations of
monsoon depressions and their effect on intra-seasonal and inter-annual variations of ISMR
have been discussed by many authors (e.g. Jenamani and Dash 1999). In addition to the
inter-annual variation, ISMR exhibits strong interdecadal variations. Characteristics of the
monsoon disturbances and their relationship with ISMR in longer time scales such as
decadal to 30 years have also been examined. These studies show the existence of dominant
interdecadal shifts in the characteristics of monsoon disturbances and their relationship with
ISMR (Jenamani and Dash 2001; Dash et al. 2004).
Bhaskar Rao et al. (2001) using the monthly frequency of all the observed cyclonic
systems found two significant trends i.e. an increasing trend till the middle of last century
followed by a decreasing trend. The frequency of monsoonal cyclonic disturbances above
Climatic Change

15.0 15.0

14.0
a 11-years running means (Pre-monsoon)
11-years running means (Post monsoon) 14.0

13.0 13.0
Rainfall (cm)

12.0 12.0

11.0 11.0

10.0 10.0

9.0 9.0

8.0 8.0

7.0 7.0
1871

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1911

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1999
Year
4.0 4.0

11-year running means (Winter)

3.5 b 3.5

3.0 3.0
Rainfall (cm)

2.5 2.5

2.0 2.0

1.5 1.5

1.0 1.0
1871

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1911

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Year

92.0 92.0
11-years running means (Monsoon)
90.0 c 90.0

88.0 88.0
Rainfall (cm)

86.0 86.0

84.0 84.0

82.0 82.0

80.0 80.0

78.0 78.0
1871

1879

1887

1895

1903

1911

1919

1927

1935

1943

1951

1959

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1983

1991

1999

Year

Fig. 9 Time series of rainfall in India during a pre-monsoon months of March, April and May and post-
monsoon months of October, November and December b winter months of January and February c monsoon
months of June, July, August and September

the intensity of depressions show decadal oscillations with their number fluctuating from as
low as 35 for the decade 1981–1990 to as high as 62 during 1971–1980 and 1921–1930.
The frequency of monsoonal cyclonic disturbances in the north Indian Ocean has shown a
significant decreasing trend during the twentieth century, registering about 50% reduction
from beginning to the end of the century. The decreasing trend is more pronounced during
recent decades. The maximum number of 72 monsoonal cyclonic disturbances occurred
during the decade 1939–1948. This number fell to 25 during the 1990s. Thus the frequency
of all types of monsoonal cyclonic disturbances has decreased at the rate of about seven to
 Climatic Change

200.00 200.0
180.00 a South Assam 180.0
Rainfall (cm)

160.00 160.0
140.00 140.0
120.00 120.0
100.00 100.0
80.00 80.0
60.00 60.0
1871

1879

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Year
200.0 200.0
b
Rainfall (cm)

180.0 East Madhya Pradesh 180.0

160.0 160.0
140.0 140.0
120.0 120.0
100.0 100.0
80.0 80.0
60.0 60.0
1871

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1975

1983

1991

1999
200.0 200.0
180.0 c Orissa 180.0
Rainfall (cm)

160.0 160.0
140.0 140.0
120.0 120.0
100.0 100.0
80.0 80.0
60.0 60.0
1871

1879

1887

1895

1903

1911

1919

1927

1935

1943

1951

1959

1967

1975

1983

1991

1999
500.0 500.0
450.0
d 450.0
Rainfall (cm)

400.0 Coastal Karnataka 400.0

350.0 350.0
300.0 300.0
250.0 250.0
200.0 200.0
150.0 150.0
100.0 100.0
1871

1879

1887

1895

1903

1911

1919

1927

1935

1943

1951

1959

1967

1975

1983

1991

1999
500.0 500.0
450.0 450.0
e
Rainfall (cm)

400.0 Konkan and Goa 400.0

350.0 350.0
300.0 300.0
250.0 250.0
200.0 200.0
150.0 150.0
100.0 100.0
1871

1879

1887

1895

1903

1911

1919

1927

1935

1943

1951

1959

1967

1975

1983

1991

1999

120.0 120.0
f
Rainfall (cm)

100.0 Punjab 100.0

80.0 80.0
60.0 60.0
40.0 40.0
20.0 20.0
0.0 0.0
1871

1879

1887

1895

1903

1911

1919

1927

1935

1943

1951

1959

1967

1975

1983

1991

1999

Year

Fig. 10 Time series of summer monsoon rainfall showing significant changes over six meteorological
subdivisions of India. Selected three subdivisions with maximum decreasing trends (a–c) and three
subdivisions with maximum increasing trends (d–f)

eight disturbances per decade. The frequency of cyclonic storms of the monsoon season has
decreased at the rate of about two cyclones per decade in hundred years. It is interesting to
note that the decrease in the monsoonal cyclonic disturbances is maximum during the last
four decades. Also the rate of decrease in the cyclonic activity over the BoB is more
Climatic Change

80

70
Percentage of area of the country

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1877

1899

1904

1907

1913

1918

1925

1941

1965

1968

1974

1982

1986

2002
Year

Fig. 11 Percentage of area of the country under moderate and severe drought for the period 1877–2002

compared to that over the AS. Srinivasa Rao et al. (2004) based on reanalyzed data of
NCEP/NCAR have concluded that a decrease of the strength of Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ)
leads to a decrease of the number of tropical cyclones over BoB.
Figure 12a shows the total number of annual monsoonal cyclonic disturbances with the
minimum intensity of monsoon depressions over the Indian region during 1889–2003. In
general, there is a decreasing trend in the total number of depressions, cyclonic storms and
systems with higher intensities specifically, the decrease since 1970s is well marked. On the
other hand, Fig. 12b shows marked increase in the number of LOPARS. Since the number
of LOPARS show increasing tendency whereas that of depressions and cyclonic storms
indicate decreasing trend, it has been inferred (Dash et al. 2004) that the dynamical
conditions of the atmosphere such as horizontal and vertical wind shears, mean sea level
pressure and moisture are not favourable for the intensification of lows into depressions and
cyclonic storms. Decadal frequencies of depressions and cyclonic storms have decreasing
trend since 1970s. Such decreasing trend in the frequency of occurrence of monsoon
depressions over Indian region has been so dominant in recent years that their average
seasonal frequency has come down to 2 or 3 in the most recent decade of 1993–2002 from
its long period average value of 7 to 8. It may be noted that for the first time in the last 115
years of data available with IMD, not a single depression or cyclonic storm formed over the
Indian region including the BoB and AS during the monsoon season of 2002.
Except the high monsoonal cyclogenesis which favours formation of systems up to
depression intensity, flow pattern over Indian region during May, October and November
are very much favourable for intense cyclone formation (Ramage 1971). Figure 13 shows
the significant increasing trend in the frequency of disturbances with the intensity of
monsoon depressions and stronger formed in the post-monsoon month of November in
contrast to very small decreasing trend in the other post-monsoon month October and no
trend found in the pre-monsoon month of May. However, during the last two decades or so,
their frequency has increased in May in contrast to decrease in other 2 months. Similarly,
Fig. 14 shows the frequency of disturbances with minimum intensity of that of cyclonic
 Climatic Change

16.0 16.0
a Depressions 11-year Running Means
14.0 14.0

12.0 12.0

10.0 10.0
Frequency

8.0 8.0

6.0 6.0

Year
4.0 4.0

2.0 2.0

0.0 0.0
1889
1893
1897
1901
1905
1909
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
16.0 16.0

b Lows 11-Year Running Means

14.0 14.0

12.0 12.0

10.0 10.0
Frequency

8.0 8.0

6.0 6.0

4.0 4.0

2.0 2.0

0.0 0.0
1889
1893
1897
1901
1905
1909
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001

Year

Fig. 12 Eleven-year running means of annual frequency of disturbances with the minimum intensity of a
monsoon depressions and b low pressure areas over the Indian region (1889–2003)

storms formed in May, October and November. It is interesting to note that there is
increasing trend in the frequency in all these months. The increasing trend in November is
much more than that in May and October. Singh et al. (2000) using 122 years (1877–1998)
of data had inferred similar trend. Webster et al. (2005) examined the systems with intensity
of cyclones and above over the past 35 years in details and inferred that the number of
cyclones and cyclone days has decreased in all basins (except the North Atlantic) during the
past decade. However, there has been a large increase in the number and proportion of
cyclones reaching more intense categories 4 and 5. The largest increase occurred in the
North Pacific, Indian and South west Pacific Oceans.
Climatic Change

3 3
May October November

2.5 2.5

2 2
Frequency

1.5 1.5

1 1

0.5 0.5

0 0
1891
1896
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Year
Fig. 13 Eleven year running means of frequency of disturbances with the intensity of depression and above
formed in the months May, October and November during 1891–2003

Based on the observed data for the period 1891–2000, it may be inferred that the number
of cyclonic storms crossing the east and west coasts of India has decreased during the last
century whereas the number of severe cyclonic storms crossing both the coasts has
increasing tendency. In the decade 1891–1900, nearly 36 cyclonic storms formed in the
BoB and crossed the east coast. This number decreased in subsequent decade and became
the least at 13 in the last decade 1991–2000. Dhar and Nandargi (2001) have inferred that
due to the reduction in cyclonic disturbances and also the number of cyclonic disturbances
that crossed the Indian coast, there has been reduction in rainstorm activities during the
recent decades. On the contrary, number of severe cyclonic storms crossing the east coast in
the decade 1891–1900 was 10 which increased to 19 in the decade 1971–1980 and became
13 in the last decade 1991–2000. The scenario at the west coast of India was similar for the
cyclonic storms and severe cyclonic storms formed over the AS. In the decade 1891–2000,
number of cyclonic storms crossing the west coast was 6. This number reduced to 3 in the
decade 1991–2000. On the other hand, there was no severe cyclonic storm crossing the west
coast in 1981–1900. This number became 4 in the decade 1941–1950. In the last decade
1991–2000, two severe cyclonic storms crossed the west coast of India. Thus there is
increasing trend of number of severe cyclonic storms crossing Indian coasts. Webster et al.
(2005) have also found similar increasing trend in case of Atlantic Hurricanes.

5 Other parameters

The global mean sea level is expected to rise as a result of the thermal expansion of the
oceans, and the melting of glaciers and polar ice sheets, which occur due to global warming.
The analysis of tide gauge records shows a global sea level rise by about 10–25 cm over the
last 100 years (Gabriele et al. 2001). However, vertical land movements cause the main
uncertainty of results from tide-gauges. Some sectors of world coastlines have been
subsiding in recent decades, as indicated by the evidence of tectonic movements. Methods
may be adopted for filtering out the effects of long-term vertical land movements and also
 Climatic Change

3 3
May November October
2.5 2.5

2 2
Frequency

1.5 1.5

1 1

0.5 0.5

0 0
1891
1896
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Year

Fig. 14 Eleven year running means of frequency of disturbances with the minimum intensity of cyclonic
storms formed in the months of May, October and November during 1891–2003

long period tide-gauge records should be examined for estimating trends in the sea level
rise due to climate change. No extensive study has been conducted so far to examine
whether there is any indication of sea level rise on both the coast lines in India. Das and
Radhakrisnan (1991, 1993) reported a rising trend in sea levels at Mumbai and Chennai for
a limited period. No significant influence on global warming on the sea level at Mumbai
and Chennai has been reported so far. The vast amount of tide gauge data at other ports
need to be examined critically with due consideration to the seismic activities on the eastern
boundary of the Indian plate, high sedimentation rate near the head BoB, local subsidence
and other regional factors.
Storm surges in the BoB are the major cause of coastal flooding along the East Coast of
India and Bangladesh. The projected rise in the sea level due to greenhouse warming may
affect the storm surges and consequently the coastal flooding in the BoB. The combined
effect of sea level rise and storm surges is extremely dangerous to the population in Ganga–
Brahmaputra–Meghna delta region of Bangladesh.
Global changes will affect the regional water sources very much. Climate change may
either increase or decrease water availability through precipitation, temperature, cloudiness
and humidity, increasing the level of uncertainty. The timing and magnitude of surface
runoffs will also be the main concern.
The coastal regions of India including Andaman and Nicobar Islands are rich in diverse
ecosystems and mangrove wetlands. The mangroves act as barriers against cyclones, avoid
coastal erosion and serve as habitat of a number of aquatic lives specially fish, prawns and
crabs. These ecosystems are influenced by geomorphology of the coast, climate, tidal
amplitude and duration, and quantity of fresh water inflow. Climate changes will disturb the
delicate balance of the ecosystems and hence can bring out visible changes in them.
Desertification is a slow process and it occurs due to persistent events such as droughts,
accelerated soil erosion by wind and water, increasing salinization of soils and near-surface
groundwater supplies, reduction in soil moisture retention, an increase in surface runoff and
streamflow variability, reduction in species diversity and plant biomass, reduction in the
overall productivity in dryland ecosystems etc. The combined effect of climatic stress and
Climatic Change

dryland degradation can become very dangerous leading to extreme social disruption,
migrations, and famine.
It is well known that in most of the cities in India, the air and water pollution problems
are alarming due to more vehicles, power plants, textile mills and other industries. The
pollutants are mainly lead, SPM, Carbon Monoxide (CO), Polycyclic Aromatic Hydro-
carbons (PAHs), Sulphur Dioxide (SO2), benzene and oxides of nitrogen. Apart from
affecting the chemical reactions in the atmosphere, these pollutants are responsible for
adversely affecting the health of the people.

6 Conclusions

Detailed analysis of observed data clearly indicate that the maximum temperature has been
increasing during the last century over all the regions of India. However, the magnitude of
increase is not the same everywhere. West coast shows maximum increase in its maximum
temperature by about 1.2°C followed by 1°C in the north east, 0.9°C in the western
Himalaya, 0.8°C in the north central, 0.6°C in the north west, 0.6°C in the east coast and
the least amount of 0.5°C in the interior peninsula. The characteristics of change in the
minimum temperature of the last century is found to be different in the regions in the north
and south India. There is a sharp reduction in the minimum temperature in north India
during 1955 to 1972 and then equally sharp rise over the past three to four decades in the
last century. Such large fluctuation is not noticed in the south. The increase in the
temperatures in the southern Indian regions goes well with the rise in SSTs of BoB and AS.
However, the large fluctuation in the minimum temperature in the north India needs further
examination in the context of changes in land-use and vegetation patterns in the Himalayan
range and the exchange of heat on the numerous slopes of the Himalayas.
Results of this comprehensive study also show that in the last century, the enhancement
in the mean atmospheric surface temperature in India is about 1 and 1.1°C during winter
and post-monsoon months respectively. During these two seasons, the maximum temper-
atures also indicate rise by about same magnitudes respectively. On the other hand during
monsoon (post-monsoon) months the minimum temperature has decreased (increased).
During pre-monsoon and monsoon months the mean temperatures have increased by about
0.3 and 0.4°C respectively. The decrease in the minimum temperature during summer
monsoon and its increase during post-monsoon months create a large difference of about
0.8°C in the seasonal temperature anomalies which may eventually alter the distribution of
heating sources and hence atmospheric circulation pattern.
Extreme temperature events have increased in the recent past. During the heat wave
period from 19 May up to 10 June 2003, the highest daily maximum temperature in the
country was observed in Andhra Pradesh instead of in the north west and central plains of
India where it used to occur normally. During the heat wave period of 23 days, the highest
maximum temperature varied between 45 and 50°C at four stations in the east coast. These
stations broke their 100 years record in maximum temperatures. Similar type of unusual
severe heat waves had occurred in Orissa during May–June 1998.
Rainfall pattern during different seasons indicate small increase during winter months
of January and February, pre-monsoon months of March, April and May and post-
monsoon months of October, November and December. In contrast ISMR shows small
decreasing trend.
There is a decreasing trend in the frequency of the total number of depressions, cyclonic
storms and systems with higher intensities observed during the months June to September.
 Climatic Change

On the other hand there is increase in the number of low pressure areas during these
monsoon months. The total number of cyclonic disturbances crossing the east coast of India
shows decreasing trend, while number of severe cyclonic storms crossing east coast shows
increasing trend.
No attempt has been made in this study to establish whether the changes observed are
due to manmade activities or due to natural climate changes. It is very difficult to arrive at
such conclusions, unless consolidated modelling studies are undertaken in future.
Numerical experiments are being designed to understand the physical mechanism leading
to the inhomogeneity in climatic changes in space and time. In addition to the global effect
of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), it is very important to examine the regional features which
modulate the global effects of warming.

Acknowledgements Data used in this study have been obtained from the archive of IMD and websites of
IITM and NCDC/NOAA. The authors wish to thank Dr. K. Rupa Kumar for supplying up-to-date relevant
temperature data and the reviewers for their constructive suggestions.

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