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BSC-301 - Probability - Distribution 4

This document contains examples and solutions to probability and statistics problems. It discusses topics like expected number of coin tosses to get a head, expected product of random numbers chosen from two sets, expected total marks of multiple choice questions answered randomly, probability distribution and properties of a random variable modeling the lifetime of CDs. The last example finds the expected sum of numbers on tickets drawn from an urn containing numbered tickets.

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Precisive One
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71 views11 pages

BSC-301 - Probability - Distribution 4

This document contains examples and solutions to probability and statistics problems. It discusses topics like expected number of coin tosses to get a head, expected product of random numbers chosen from two sets, expected total marks of multiple choice questions answered randomly, probability distribution and properties of a random variable modeling the lifetime of CDs. The last example finds the expected sum of numbers on tickets drawn from an urn containing numbered tickets.

Uploaded by

Precisive One
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT, KOLKATA

Course Name: Mathematics & Statistics III (BSC-301)

1
INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT, KOLKATA

Example 1: A coin is tossed until a head appears. Find the expected number
of tosses.
Solution: Let us denote the random variable X as
X – ‘number of tosses’
Then the possible values of X are 1,2,3,4.……. with the corresponding
possibilities H, TH, TTH, TTTH…………..
Hence the probability distribution of X is given by

𝑃(𝑋 1 2 3 …………. Total


= 𝑥𝑖 )

𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) 1 1
( )2 1 3 …………. 1
2 ( )
2 2

2
INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT, KOLKATA

Then the expected number of tosses is given by


1 1 2 1 3
𝐸 𝑋 =1 ∗ +2 ∗ +3∗ +⋯ (1)
2 2 2
Now multiplying (1) by ½ on both sides we get
1 1 2 1 3
𝐸 𝑋 = +2∗ +⋯ (2)
2 2 2
(1) - (2) ⇒
1 1 1 2 1 3
𝐸 𝑋 = + + +⋯ (3)
2 2 2 2
The right hand side of (3) is an infinite geometric progression series so we
have
1
1
𝐸 𝑋 = 2 =1 ⇒𝐸 𝑋 =2
2 1
1−
2
Hence the expected number of tosses is 2
3
INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT, KOLKATA

Example 2: A number is chosen from the set A = {1,2,……100} and another


number is chosen from the set B = {1,2,…….50}. What is the expected value
of their product?
Solution: Let us define the two random variables X and Y as
X – ‘a number chosen from set A’
Y – ‘a number chosen from set B’
The expected value of their product is given by
E(XY) = E(X).E(Y) (1) ( since X and Y are independent)
Since a number is picked randomly so the chance of it being selected must
be equi probable.
Hence the distribution of X is given by
𝑃(𝑋 1 2 ……………. 100 Total
= 𝑥𝑖 )
𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) 1 1 …………. 1 1
100 100 100 4
INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT, KOLKATA

1 1 1 1
Here, 𝐸 𝑋 = 1 ∗ +2∗ + ⋯ 100 ∗ = (1 + 2 + ⋯ 100)
100 100 100 100
1 100∗101 101
= =
100 2 2
Similarly the distribution of Y is given by
𝑃(𝑋 1 2 ……………. 50 Total
= 𝑥𝑖 )
𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) 1 1 …………. 1 1
50 50 50
1 1 1 1
Therefore, 𝐸 𝑋 = 1 ∗ + 2 ∗ + ⋯ 50 ∗ = (1 + 2 + ⋯ 50)
50 50 50 50
1 50∗51 51
= =
50 2 2
101 51
Hence (1) ⇒ E(XY) = ∗ = 1287.75
2 2

5
INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT, KOLKATA

Example 3: An exam paper has 150 multiple choice questions of one mark
each, with each question having four choices. Each incorrect answer
fetches -0.25 marks. Suppose 1000 students choose all their answers
randomly with uniform probability. Find the sum total of the expected
marks obtained by these students.
Solution: Let us define the random variable
X – ‘marks obtained for each question’
The probability distribution for X is given by
X 1 - 0.25 Total

f(x) 0.25 0.75 1

Expected marks for each question = (1*0.25) + (-0.25*0.75) = 0.0625


Expected marks for 150 question for 1000 students
= (150)(1000)(0.0625) = 9375
6
INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT, KOLKATA

Example 4: The economic lifetime in months of a recently issued musical


CD is modelled by the random variable X with the pdf
𝑘 9 − 𝑥 𝑓𝑜𝑟 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 9
𝑓 𝑥 =
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
Where k is a positive constant.
(i) Find k (ii) Find the mean economic lifetime of the CD (iii) Find the
probability that a CD’s economic lifetime is less than 4 months. (iv)
Determine the s.d. of X
∞
Solution: (i)Since f(x) is a pdf so −∞
𝑓 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = 1
0 9 ∞

⇒ 0𝑑𝑥 + 𝑘 9 − 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 + 0𝑑𝑥 = 1
−∞ 0 9
2
𝑥 9
⇒ 𝑘[9𝑥 − ]0 = 1
2
92 2
⇒𝑘 =1 ⇒𝑘=
2 81 7
INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT, KOLKATA

2
9 − 𝑥 𝑓𝑜𝑟 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 9
Hence the pdf changes to 𝑓 𝑥 = 81
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
9
(ii) Mean economic lifetime of the CD is given by 𝐸 𝑥 = 0
𝑥𝑓 𝑥 𝑑𝑥
9 2 2 𝑥2 𝑥3 9 2∗9
= 𝑥 9 − 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = [9 − ] = = 3 months
0 81 81 2 3 0 6
(iii) Prob. that a CD’s economic lifetime is less than 4 months is given by
4 4
2 2 𝑥2 2 56
𝑃 𝑋<4 = 9 − 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = [9𝑥 − ] = 36 − 8 =
81 81 2 0 81 81
0

(iv) We know S.D.(X)= 𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑋


2
Now, Var(X) = 𝐸 𝑋 2 − 𝐸 𝑋 = 𝐸 𝑋2 − 9 (1)
9
9 2 9 2 2 2 𝑥3 𝑥4 2∗92 27
Now, 𝐸 𝑋2 = 0
𝑥 𝑓 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = 0
𝑥 9 − 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = [9 − ] = =
81 81 3 4 0 12 2

8
INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT, KOLKATA

27 9
∴ 1 ⇒ 𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑋 = −9=
2 2
3
∴ 𝑆. 𝐷. 𝑋 = 𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑋 =
2

9
INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT, KOLKATA

Example 5: An urn contains n tickets, numbered 1 to n and m tickets are


drawn at a time. Find the expectation of the sum of numbers on the tickets
drawn.
Solution: Let us define the random variable 𝑋𝑘 as the k-th ticket drawn,
where k = 1,2,3…..n and let X be the random variable of the sum of m
numbers of tickets drawn. That is 𝑋 = 𝑋1 + 𝑋2 + ⋯ + 𝑋𝑚
The distribution of X is given by
𝑋𝑘 1 2 …………… n

f(x) 1/n 1/n ……………. 1/n

1 1 1 1 𝑛 𝑛+1 𝑛+1
∴ 𝐸 𝑋𝑘 = 1 ∗ + 2 ∗ + ⋯ + 𝑛 ∗ = ∗ =
𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 2 2
∴ 𝐸 𝑋 = 𝐸 𝑋1 + 𝑋2 + ⋯ + 𝑋𝑚
(𝑛 + 1)
⇒ 𝐸 𝑋 = 𝐸 𝑋1 + 𝐸 𝑋2 + ⋯ + 𝐸 𝑋𝑚 = 𝑚 10
2
INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT, KOLKATA

Thank You

11

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