DHL Report
DHL Report
DHL Report
OCEAN FREIGHT
MARKET UPDATE
OCTOBER 2022 –
PUBLICATION DATE SEPTEMBER 30TH, 2022
Contents
Ocean Freight Market update – October 2022
1 Topic of the month
Supply Chain Challenges
3 Market outlook
6 Capacity development
10,000 5,000
1,000
8,000 4,000
800
6,000 3,000 33%
600
4,000 Actual 2,000 Actual
IFO 380
2,000 Forecast 1,000 Forecast 400
VLSF
0 0 200
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 A S O N D J F M A M J J A S
’20 ’21 ’22 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’21 ’22
1) Real GDP, Copyright © IHS Markit, now part of S&P Global, Q2 2022 Update 3 Jun ‘22. All rights reserved; 2) IHS Markit, now part of S&P Global, Q4 2021 Update 24 Mar ‘22. All rights reserved; 3) Drewry, in USD/40ft
container, including BAF & THC both ends, 42 individual routes, excluding intra-Asia routes; 4) Shanghai Shipping Exchange, in USD/20ft ctnr & USD/40ft ctnr for US routes, including BAF, EBAF, CAF, PSS, WRS, PCS &
SCS/SCF/PTF/PCC, excl. THC, 15 routes from Shanghai; 5) Source: DHL
Major trades –
Market outlook October 2022 month-on-month development
OCEANIA + - SSA = +
Source: DHL
*incl Mexico and Central America/Cenac
KEY Strong Increase ++ Moderate Increase + No Change = Moderate Decline - Strong Decline --
ASPA-AMNO There is no pre Golden Week rush before the holidays and we expect demand to be flat in October. Shippers are
concerned over a potential rail and security guard strike which may have impact on the operations.
ASPA-AMLA Market remain pessimistic about the trend towards the end of the year 2022. There is no pre-golden rush as
anticipated and the rates level for both ECSA and WCSA keep decreasing. With weak demand and overstock at
destination, Oct is expected to be flat. Blank sailings to be expected.
ASPA-MENAT Usual pre-Golden Week rush was not visible and market rates continue to drop. Blank sailings were not reacting in
tandem to the dwindling demand but will take place more evidently during CN Golden Weeks. Market is expected to
be sluggish in Oct with rates either stagnating or further reducing depending on the scale of blank sailings.
Equipment is considerably stable across all ASPA origins but expect recent typhoon in East Asia to disrupt schedules
with additional port omissions.
ASPA-ASPA With Golden Week holiday and sporadic lockdown happening in China due to Covid policy, volume recovery is slower
than expected. At the same time, carriers had also announced blank sailing arrangement thus may cause 'artificial'
surge in demand. Overall, space and equipment situation is improving except for key South-East Asia exporting
countries are still face slight difficulty in securing space and equipment. Advance booking is recommended.
Source: DHL
EURO- Asia: space situation is still relaxed. No issues with capacity only vessel delays and congestions. Rate-wise, we still see reductions to Asia.
AU/NZ: congestion situation improved; minor delays compared to the previous months. The direct service is still well utilized. Also NZ-
ASPA+MEA situation has improved – with no congestion in place any longer. Rates on the direct service are still stable at a high level but T/S rates are
decreasing.
MEA: Space is available. Rates remain at a stable level. No issues with equipment. Demand to middle east remains also on a stable level.
AMNO-EURO The Ocean Alliance will be increasing vessel capacity at the end of September, replacing their 8’000 TEU vessels with vessels in the
13’000 + teus capacity frame.
AMNO-ASPA AMNO – ASPA: Rates and Capacity are stabilizing after the blitz of Imports and carriers prioritizing empties back to Asia.
AMNO – SPAC: Rates are stabilizing but cargo back log and severe capacity situation remains ongoing.
AMLA Exports AMLA – AMNO & INTRA: Service suspensions through the region further reduce capacity for busy routes. Cosco studying market to
swap port rotation from Houston, TX to Freeport, TX. Carriers pushing Posorja services in Ecuador vs. Guayaquil. Reefer Season
imposing further delays w/dry cargo.
AMLA – ASPA: MX/WCSA to Asia vessel utilization: 90% with space available. All shipping lines are open to accept additional business
opportunities. Equipment situation improved but there are still challenges on reefer equipment..
AMLA – EURO, MENAT & SSA: MX EC to Med will see a new service enter the market in October which is expected to bring some relief.
SAEC continues to struggle with capacity and rising rates.
Economic outlook & demand evolution – Tightening financial conditions will slow
global economic growth and inflation
Western Europe faces a winter recession with high energy costs and limited energy supplies. After robust, consumer-led growth in Q1 & 2 2022, the eurozone
economy stalled in Q3. The temporary boost from pent-up demand for consumer services appears to be fading, giving way to headwinds from energy supply and
price issues, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, tightening financial conditions, and deteriorating confidence. Natural gas supply curtailment would pose risks to
EUROPE Europe’s electric power, basic metals, chemicals, plastics, glass, and ceramics industries.
The US economy faces an extended period of tepid growth and rising unemployment. Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic
have sent US inflation to a four-decade high. Despite a slight easing since June, consumer price inflation remained high at 8.3% YoY in August. The Federal Reserve
is now determined to bring inflation back to its 2% target and will likely raise the federal funds rate to 4% or higher by the end of 2022. The US economy is still
AMERICAS expected to avert a recession, as tight labor markets support sustained growth in consumer spending. However, rising financing costs will lead to significant
declines in residential and commercial construction.
Mainland China economic growth remains subpar. After a setback related to COVID-19 lockdowns in Q2, mainland China’s economy is expanding again. Industrial
production rose 4.2% YoY in August, while services output increased just 1.8% YoY. Growth will likely remain constrained by the government’s dynamic zero-COVID
policy, a deep property sector recession, and weakening export demand. The lift from stimulus policies will be limited, as the government remains cautious owing
to concerns about high debt leverage.
ASIA PACIFIC
The Q3 Business Sentiment Survey by the Japanese Cabinet Office indicated enterprises maintain robust fixed investment plans for fiscal 2022. However, weaker
outlooks for the global economy will make enterprises cautious, and higher costs because of the weak yen will squeeze profits for domestic-oriented enterprises, leading to
restrained capex growth.
EMERGING & Strong domestic demand in Asia Pacific’s emerging economies - led by private consumption and government spending on subsidy measures - has
DEVELOPING been a significant support of growth in 2022. However, for 2023 IHS Markit have downgraded the forecast for real private consumption marginally to 3.9%
COUNTRIES owing to the aggressive monetary policy tightening and some late surges in inflation as governments start unwinding measures such as fuel subsidies in Indonesia.
In August, the JPMorgan Global Composite Output Index (compiled by S&P Global) fell 1.5 points to 49.3, dropping below the no-change level of 50.0 for the first
DEMAND
time since June 2020. Output, new business, export orders, and backlogs declined, while employment growth slowed.
DEVELOPMENT
Source: IHS Markit, now part of S&P Global, IHS Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing, a PMI at 50 is considered neutral, expanding above 50, and business shrinking below 50
CMA CGM 2), 5) 18’568 30’870 66% 7’297 17’658 142% 39.3% 57.2% 5’582 14’801 165%
Maersk Group 8) 17’990 28’910 61% 7’844 17’812 127% 43.6% 61.6% 6’463 15’369 138%
ONE 3) 5’776 9’019 56% 2’924 5’859 100% 50.6% 65.0% 2’559 5’499 115%
Hapag-Lloyd 10’551 18’562 76% 4’240 10’942 158% 40.2% 58.9% 4’240 10’942 158%
Evergreen Marine Corp. 1), 5), 7) 6’807 11’623 71% 3’440 7’822 127% 50.5% 67.3% 3’213 7’114 121%
HMM 4’662 8’072 73% 2’104 4’936 135% 45.1% 61.1% 319 4’919 1442%
Zim 4’126 7’145 73% 2’156 4’636 115% 52.3% 64.9% 1’478 3’047 106%
Yang Ming 4’858 7’265 50% 2’560 4’815 88% 52.7% 66.3% 2’122 3’910 84%
Wan Hai 3’105 5’231 68% 1’449 2’963 104% 46.7% 56.6% 1’210 2’380 97%
Average 4) 91’785 148’603 62% 38’419 85’163 122% 41.9% 57.3% 31’262 73’927 136%
Source: Alphaliner, DynaLiners; n.a. = not available, n.m. = not meaningful; 1) local currency numbers were converted into US$ using the average exchange rate for relevant financial period; 2) container shipping segment only, excl. CEVA Logistics, Net Profit for Group; 3)
result is Q1 Japanese financial year, i.e. Apr-Jun not calendar year; 4) Average excluding ONE, CMA CGM; 5) operating profit is EBIT; 6) COSCO Shipping Lines and OOCL, excl. terminals; 7) not consolidated for Evergreen Group; 8) Ocean segment only; Net Profit for Group
Capacity
The 2M carriers Maersk and MSC announce Asia – North Europe blanking program. During and after the Golden Week holiday in China, the 2M carriers plan to skip 9
sailings of their joint 2M Asia – North Europe loops in weeks 37 to 41. The voyages are blanked to match capacity with the expected weaker demand. The cancelations also
address restrictions in cargo operations caused by the temporary reduced workforce in ports and terminals during Golden Week. Many other carriers in the trade will also
offer fewer westbound sailing from China in October but have not announced this officially as a ‘blanking program’.
Falling cargo volumes and freight rates are forcing carrier to continue to slash capacity on the Pacific. Following Matson’s decision to close its China-California Express
‘CCX’ service, the Chinese carriers CULines and Shanghai Jin Jiang Shipping are now cutting their exposure on the trade too. CULines and Shanghai Jin Jiang are closing their
jointly operated Trans Pacific Express ‘TPX’ China – USWC service. CULines had already started reducing capacity on the Pacific with the closure of its ‘TPN’ service in August.
In view of China’s upcoming Golden Week holidays, which take place in the first week of October, and the overall bearish developments on the cargo front, the main carriers
active in the trade are expected to implement additional capacity cuts in the coming weeks.
Carriers
Fast growing China United Lines (CULines) and Antong Holding have signed a new co-operation pact to jointly invest in shipping and logistics. Under a capital investment
framework agreement agreed in September, the companies will team up for future investments in shipping and logistic-related industries. It extends a relationship which
already saw CULines charter 12 vessels of 4,100 – 4,700 TEU from Antong for the East-West trades in 2021. CULines described the collaboration as one of its primary
growth drivers last year, as it moved rapidly up the ranks from 95th largest carrier in 2020 to 20th place today. The two companies also signed a new framework agreement
in May this year to enhance their long-term cooperation on European and transpacific services and integrate domestic and foreign trades.
• The trade with the lowest reliability continues to be the Asia-US East Coast trade 80
although (17.2%) while the Europe-Indian Subcontinent trade was the best 75
performer (66.2%). 70
• On the Transpacific Eastbound reliability improved for the 7th consecutive month 65
in a row to 29.5% and 42.6% on the backhaul.
60
• Performance remained unchanged on the Asia-North Europe trade (30%) and on 55
Transatlantic westbound (29%) while Transatlantic eastbound slightly decreased
(34.9% in Sep vs. 39.6% in Aug). 50
45
• The Asia-South America trades registered 43.5% on Asia-ECSA and 44.7% on
Asia-WCSA. 40
35
30
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Source: Alphaliner
DGF Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | October 2022 13
UNCLASSIFIED (PUBLIC)
BACK-UP
15
UNCLASSIFIED (PUBLIC)
Market outlook October 2022 – Ocean Freight rates additional trades (1/3)
EURO-AMLA + MX MX: No significant changes vs. previous month: High demand into Mexico continues. Rates extended for Q4.
South America: Capacity is slightly improving, but still tight. Rates extended across the board for Q4.
EURO-SSA South Africa: The previous tight capacity situation has improved with also reduced delays and vessel schedule disruptions. However
extended waiting times for berthing remains.
West Africa: space remains tight across all carriers. Pre-bookings 3-4 weeks in advance are required. Congestion situation in major
transshipment hubs easing further.
East Africa: very high vessel utilization, space is very tight. Pre-bookings 3-4 weeks in advance are required.
AMNO-MENAT Slight relief available for USCHS / USSAV connections to Mideast as carriers open up transshipment options via EURO / MED.
Capacity is open to Turkey and N. Africa and slowly opening to Egypt as well.
AMNO-SSA West Coast Africa starting to receive some GRI notifications for October, but overall, rates are stable to the region due to the trade
continuing to be down. Hapag is re-launching their service via North Europe transshipment.
AMNO-AMLA Port congestion and service disruption ex Gulf and North East POL’s continues to challenge the market. Sporadic increases
announced for October (GRI / PSS) at approximately $250/TEU. Q4 FAK market levels are expected to increase while we navigate this
space crunch
Source: DHL
Market outlook October 2022 – Ocean Freight rates additional trades (2/3)
EURO MED-AMNO Overall market conditions lead all carriers to extend all rates till end of the year. Congestion in the ports and railroad in North America
still impact schedule’s reliability.
EURO MED-AMLA ECSA and WCSA trade are both stable.
EURO MED-ASPA ASPA : slight softening of rates depending on the service and alliance, issue on empties, blanks, and congestion in MED hubs.
and MENAT MENAT : unchanged/stable.
EURO MED- Unchanged/stable.
SSA
ASPA-SPAC No Golden Week rush sighted this year and overall market volumes decreased. With new carriers emerging such as ASL and BAL
putting capacity into Oceania market has resulted in further decrease in market rates. Sporadic lockdown is still happening in China,
which impacts overall volumes and slows down volume recovery. Schedule reliability remains an ongoing issue and blank
sailings/port omissions are still performed by carriers to get vessels back to schedules.
Source: DHL
Market outlook October 2022 – Ocean Freight rates additional trades (3/3)
MENAT Exports Intra Gulf & ISC: Space is available. No Rate increase expected on this trade.
Asia: Equipment and space are available. Rates are stable.
Oceania: Space for AU and NZ has opened up. Rates on downwards trend.
Europe & MED : Most carriers are aggressively looking for more bookings. Some carriers are offering sharp rates on spot basis while
few others are trying to hold on to higher levels.
Africa (West & South): Space on this trade is opening up.
Africa (East): New capacity added on this trade causing rate reductions. Congestion in TZ continues to be a challenge.
AMNO: Space on USEC and USWC is open. Some of the Asian carriers have started to accept booking from MEA to USWC. Space on
EC is open as carriers face lower volume.
AMLA: Space opened by few carriers. Advance booking forecast still needed. Situation expected to improve further in the coming
weeks.
Source: DHL
N O R T H N O R T H
A M E R I C A A M E R I C A
I n c l . 4.6 mTEU +2.2% 3.6 mTEU +2.3% I n c l .
M E X I C O F A R E A S T M E X I C O
M I D D L E E A S T &
N O R T H A F R I C A
2.7 mTEU +3.9% 143.2 mTEU 2022e +3.2% CAGR 2023e – 2026e
Source: Seabury Jun22 update
Source: Carriers